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Create app.py

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  1. app.py +621 -0
app.py ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,621 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ import streamlit as st
2
+ st.set_page_config(layout="wide")
3
+
4
+ for name in dir():
5
+ if not name.startswith('_'):
6
+ del globals()[name]
7
+
8
+ import numpy as np
9
+ import pandas as pd
10
+ import streamlit as st
11
+ import gspread
12
+ import plotly.express as px
13
+ import random
14
+ import gc
15
+
16
+ @st.cache_resource
17
+ def init_conn():
18
+ scope = ['https://www.googleapis.com/auth/spreadsheets',
19
+ "https://www.googleapis.com/auth/drive"]
20
+
21
+ credentials = {
22
+ "type": "service_account",
23
+ "project_id": "model-sheets-connect",
24
+ "private_key_id": "0e0bc2fdef04e771172fe5807392b9d6639d945e",
25
+ "private_key": "-----BEGIN PRIVATE KEY-----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\nF/j9eUXfXjAlb042MphoF3ZC\n-----END PRIVATE KEY-----\n",
26
+ "client_email": "gspread-connection@model-sheets-connect.iam.gserviceaccount.com",
27
+ "client_id": "100369174533302798535",
28
+ "auth_uri": "https://accounts.google.com/o/oauth2/auth",
29
+ "token_uri": "https://oauth2.googleapis.com/token",
30
+ "auth_provider_x509_cert_url": "https://www.googleapis.com/oauth2/v1/certs",
31
+ "client_x509_cert_url": "https://www.googleapis.com/robot/v1/metadata/x509/gspread-connection%40model-sheets-connect.iam.gserviceaccount.com"
32
+ }
33
+
34
+ gc_con = gspread.service_account_from_dict(credentials)
35
+
36
+ return gc_con
37
+
38
+ gcservice_account = init_conn()
39
+
40
+ master_hold = 'https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Yq0vGriWK-bS79e-bD6_u9pqrYE6Yrlbb_wEkmH-ot0/edit#gid=853878325'
41
+
42
+ game_format = {'Win%': '{:.2%}'}
43
+ prop_format = {'L5 Success': '{:.2%}', 'L10_Success': '{:.2%}', 'L20_success': '{:.2%}', 'Matchup Boost': '{:.2%}', 'Trending Over': '{:.2%}', 'Trending Under': '{:.2%}',
44
+ 'Implied Over': '{:.2%}', 'Implied Under': '{:.2%}', 'Over Edge': '{:.2%}', 'Under Edge': '{:.2%}'}
45
+ prop_table_options = ['points', 'threes', 'rebounds', 'assists', 'blocks', 'steals', 'PRA', 'points+rebounds', 'points+assists', 'rebounds+assists']
46
+ all_sim_vars = ['points', 'rebounds', 'assists', 'threes', 'PRA', 'points+rebounds', 'points+assists', 'rebounds+assists']
47
+ sim_all_hold = pd.DataFrame(columns=['Player', 'Prop type', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge'])
48
+
49
+ @st.cache_resource(ttl = 300)
50
+ def init_baselines():
51
+ sh = gcservice_account.open_by_url(master_hold)
52
+ worksheet = sh.worksheet('Betting Model Clean')
53
+ raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
54
+ raw_display.replace('#DIV/0!', np.nan, inplace=True)
55
+ raw_display['Win%'] = raw_display['Win%'].replace({'%': ''}, regex=True).astype(float) / 100
56
+ game_model = raw_display.dropna()
57
+
58
+ worksheet = sh.worksheet('DK_Build_Up')
59
+ raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
60
+ raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
61
+ raw_display.rename(columns={"Name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
62
+ raw_display = raw_display[['Player', 'Position', 'Team', 'Opp', 'Minutes', '3P', 'Points', 'Rebounds', 'Assists', 'Steals', 'Blocks', 'Turnovers', 'Fantasy']]
63
+ player_stats = raw_display[raw_display['Minutes'] > 0]
64
+
65
+ player_stats['Player'].replace(['Jaren Jackson', 'Nic Claxton', 'Jabari Smith', 'Lu Dort', 'Moe Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma', 'Trey Murphy', 'Cameron Thomas'],
66
+ ['Jaren Jackson Jr.', 'Nicolas Claxton', 'Jabari Smith Jr.', 'Luguentz Dort', 'Moritz Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma Jr.',
67
+ 'Trey Murphy III', 'Cam Thomas'], inplace=True)
68
+
69
+ worksheet = sh.worksheet('Timestamp')
70
+ timestamp = worksheet.acell('A1').value
71
+
72
+ worksheet = sh.worksheet('Prop_Frame')
73
+ raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
74
+ raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
75
+ prop_frame = raw_display.dropna(subset='Player')
76
+
77
+ worksheet = sh.worksheet('Pick6_ingest')
78
+ raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
79
+ raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
80
+ pick_frame = raw_display.dropna(subset='Player')
81
+
82
+ prop_frame['Player'].replace(['Jaren Jackson', 'Nic Claxton', 'Jabari Smith', 'Lu Dort', 'Moe Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma', 'Trey Murphy', 'Cameron Thomas'],
83
+ ['Jaren Jackson Jr.', 'Nicolas Claxton', 'Jabari Smith Jr.', 'Luguentz Dort', 'Moritz Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma Jr.',
84
+ 'Trey Murphy III', 'Cam Thomas'], inplace=True)
85
+ pick_frame['Player'].replace(['Jaren Jackson', 'Nic Claxton', 'Jabari Smith', 'Lu Dort', 'Moe Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma', 'Trey Murphy', 'Cameron Thomas'],
86
+ ['Jaren Jackson Jr.', 'Nicolas Claxton', 'Jabari Smith Jr.', 'Luguentz Dort', 'Moritz Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma Jr.',
87
+ 'Trey Murphy III', 'Cam Thomas'], inplace=True)
88
+ return game_model, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp
89
+
90
+ def convert_df_to_csv(df):
91
+ return df.to_csv().encode('utf-8')
92
+
93
+ game_model, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
94
+ t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
95
+
96
+ tab1, tab2, tab3, tab4, tab5 = st.tabs(["Game Betting Model", "Player Projections", "Prop Trend Table", "Player Prop Simulations", "Stat Specific Simulations"])
97
+
98
+ with tab1:
99
+ st.info(t_stamp)
100
+ if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset1'):
101
+ st.cache_data.clear()
102
+ game_model, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
103
+ t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
104
+ line_var1 = st.radio('How would you like to display odds?', options = ['Percentage', 'American'], key='line_var1')
105
+ team_frame = game_model
106
+ if line_var1 == 'Percentage':
107
+ team_frame = team_frame[['Team', 'Opp', 'Team Points', 'Opp Points', 'Proj Total', 'Proj Spread', 'Proj Winner', 'Win%']]
108
+ team_frame = team_frame.set_index('Team')
109
+ st.dataframe(team_frame.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(game_format, precision=2), use_container_width = True)
110
+ if line_var1 == 'American':
111
+ team_frame = team_frame[['Team', 'Opp', 'Team Points', 'Opp Points', 'Proj Total', 'Proj Spread', 'Proj Winner', 'Odds Line']]
112
+ team_frame = team_frame.set_index('Team')
113
+ st.dataframe(team_frame.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
114
+
115
+ st.download_button(
116
+ label="Export Team Model",
117
+ data=convert_df_to_csv(team_frame),
118
+ file_name='NBA_team_betting_export.csv',
119
+ mime='text/csv',
120
+ key='team_export',
121
+ )
122
+
123
+ with tab2:
124
+ st.info(t_stamp)
125
+ if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset2'):
126
+ st.cache_data.clear()
127
+ game_model, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
128
+ t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
129
+ split_var1 = st.radio("Would you like to view all teams or specific ones?", ('All', 'Specific Teams'), key='split_var1')
130
+ if split_var1 == 'Specific Teams':
131
+ team_var1 = st.multiselect('Which teams would you like to include in the tables?', options = player_stats['Team'].unique(), key='team_var1')
132
+ elif split_var1 == 'All':
133
+ team_var1 = player_stats.Team.values.tolist()
134
+ player_stats = player_stats[player_stats['Team'].isin(team_var1)]
135
+ player_stats_disp = player_stats.set_index('Player')
136
+ player_stats_disp = player_stats_disp.sort_values(by='Fantasy', ascending=False)
137
+ st.dataframe(player_stats_disp.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
138
+ st.download_button(
139
+ label="Export Prop Model",
140
+ data=convert_df_to_csv(player_stats),
141
+ file_name='NBA_stats_export.csv',
142
+ mime='text/csv',
143
+ )
144
+
145
+ with tab3:
146
+ st.info(t_stamp)
147
+ if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset3'):
148
+ st.cache_data.clear()
149
+ game_model, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
150
+ t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
151
+ split_var5 = st.radio("Would you like to view all teams or specific ones?", ('All', 'Specific Teams'), key='split_var5')
152
+ if split_var5 == 'Specific Teams':
153
+ team_var5 = st.multiselect('Which teams would you like to include in the tables?', options = player_stats['Team'].unique(), key='team_var5')
154
+ elif split_var5 == 'All':
155
+ team_var5 = player_stats.Team.values.tolist()
156
+ prop_type_var2 = st.selectbox('Select type of prop are you wanting to view', options = prop_table_options)
157
+ prop_frame_disp = prop_frame[prop_frame['Team'].isin(team_var5)]
158
+ prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp[prop_frame_disp['prop_type'] == prop_type_var2]
159
+ prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp.set_index('Player')
160
+ prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp.sort_values(by='Trending Over', ascending=False)
161
+ st.dataframe(prop_frame_disp.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(prop_format, precision=2), use_container_width = True)
162
+ st.download_button(
163
+ label="Export Prop Trends Model",
164
+ data=convert_df_to_csv(prop_frame),
165
+ file_name='NBA_prop_trends_export.csv',
166
+ mime='text/csv',
167
+ )
168
+
169
+ with tab4:
170
+ st.info(t_stamp)
171
+ if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset4'):
172
+ st.cache_data.clear()
173
+ game_model, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
174
+ t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
175
+ col1, col2 = st.columns([1, 5])
176
+
177
+ with col2:
178
+ df_hold_container = st.empty()
179
+ info_hold_container = st.empty()
180
+ plot_hold_container = st.empty()
181
+
182
+ with col1:
183
+ player_check = st.selectbox('Select player to simulate props', options = player_stats['Player'].unique())
184
+ prop_type_var = st.selectbox('Select type of prop to simulate', options = ['points', 'threes', 'rebounds', 'assists', 'blocks', 'steals',
185
+ 'PRA', 'points+rebounds', 'points+assists', 'rebounds+assists'])
186
+
187
+ ou_var = st.selectbox('Select wether it is an over or under', options = ['Over', 'Under'])
188
+ if prop_type_var == 'points':
189
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 50.5, value = 15.5, step = .5)
190
+ elif prop_type_var == 'threes':
191
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 5.5, value = 1.5, step = .5)
192
+ elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds':
193
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 25.5, value = 5.5, step = .5)
194
+ elif prop_type_var == 'assists':
195
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 25.5, value = 5.5, step = .5)
196
+ elif prop_type_var == 'blocks':
197
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 5.5, value = 1.5, step = .5)
198
+ elif prop_type_var == 'steals':
199
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 5.5, value = 1.5, step = .5)
200
+ elif prop_type_var == 'PRA':
201
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 65.5, value = 20.5, step = .5)
202
+ elif prop_type_var == 'points+rebounds':
203
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 45.5, value = 10.5, step = .5)
204
+ elif prop_type_var == 'points+assists':
205
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 45.5, value = 10.5, step = .5)
206
+ elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds+assists':
207
+ prop_var = st.number_input('Type in the prop offered (i.e 5.5)', min_value = 0.0, max_value = 45.5, value = 10.5, step = .5)
208
+ line_var = st.number_input('Type in the line on the prop (i.e. -120)', min_value = -1500, max_value = 1500, value = -150, step = 1)
209
+ line_var = line_var + 1
210
+
211
+ if st.button('Simulate Prop'):
212
+ with col2:
213
+
214
+ with df_hold_container.container():
215
+
216
+ df = player_stats
217
+
218
+ total_sims = 5000
219
+
220
+ df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
221
+
222
+ player_var = df.loc[df['Player'] == player_check]
223
+ player_var = player_var.reset_index()
224
+
225
+ if prop_type_var == 'points':
226
+ df['Median'] = df['Points']
227
+ elif prop_type_var == 'threes':
228
+ df['Median'] = df['3P']
229
+ elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds':
230
+ df['Median'] = df['Rebounds']
231
+ elif prop_type_var == 'assists':
232
+ df['Median'] = df['Assists']
233
+ elif prop_type_var == 'blocks':
234
+ df['Median'] = df['Blocks']
235
+ elif prop_type_var == 'steals':
236
+ df['Median'] = df['Steals']
237
+ elif prop_type_var == 'PRA':
238
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds'] + df['Assists']
239
+ elif prop_type_var == 'points+rebounds':
240
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds']
241
+ elif prop_type_var == 'points+assists':
242
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Assists']
243
+ elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds+assists':
244
+ df['Median'] = df['Assists'] + df['Rebounds']
245
+
246
+ flex_file = df
247
+ flex_file['Floor'] = (flex_file['Median'] * .25) + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
248
+ flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + 10 + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
249
+ flex_file['STD'] = (flex_file['Median']/4)
250
+ flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
251
+
252
+ hold_file = flex_file
253
+ overall_file = flex_file
254
+ salary_file = flex_file
255
+
256
+ overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
257
+
258
+ for x in range(0,total_sims):
259
+ overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
260
+
261
+ overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
262
+ overall_file.astype('int').dtypes
263
+
264
+ players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
265
+
266
+ player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
267
+
268
+ players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
269
+ players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
270
+ players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
271
+ if ou_var == 'Over':
272
+ players_only['beat_prop'] = overall_file[overall_file > prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
273
+ elif ou_var == 'Under':
274
+ players_only['beat_prop'] = (overall_file[overall_file < prop_var].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims))
275
+
276
+ players_only['implied_odds'] = np.where(line_var <= 0, (-(line_var)/((-(line_var))+100)), 100/(line_var+100))
277
+
278
+ players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
279
+
280
+ final_outcomes = players_only[['Player', '10%', 'Mean_Outcome', '90%', 'implied_odds', 'beat_prop']]
281
+ final_outcomes['Bet?'] = np.where(final_outcomes['beat_prop'] - final_outcomes['implied_odds'] >= .10, "Bet", "No Bet")
282
+ final_outcomes = final_outcomes.loc[final_outcomes['Player'] == player_check]
283
+ player_outcomes = player_outcomes.loc[player_outcomes['Player'] == player_check]
284
+ player_outcomes = player_outcomes.drop(columns=['Player']).transpose()
285
+ player_outcomes = player_outcomes.reset_index()
286
+ player_outcomes.columns = ['Instance', 'Outcome']
287
+
288
+ x1 = player_outcomes.Outcome.to_numpy()
289
+
290
+ print(x1)
291
+
292
+ hist_data = [x1]
293
+
294
+ group_labels = ['player outcomes']
295
+
296
+ fig = px.histogram(
297
+ player_outcomes, x='Outcome')
298
+ fig.add_vline(x=prop_var, line_dash="dash", line_color="green")
299
+
300
+ with df_hold_container:
301
+ df_hold_container = st.empty()
302
+ format_dict = {'10%': '{:.2f}', 'Mean_Outcome': '{:.2f}','90%': '{:.2f}', 'beat_prop': '{:.2%}','implied_odds': '{:.2%}'}
303
+ st.dataframe(final_outcomes.style.format(format_dict), use_container_width = True)
304
+
305
+ with info_hold_container:
306
+ st.info('The Y-axis is the percent of times in simulations that the player reaches certain thresholds, while the X-axis is the threshold to be met. The Green dotted line is the prop you entered. You can hover over any spot and see the percent to reach that mark.')
307
+
308
+ with plot_hold_container:
309
+ st.dataframe(player_outcomes, use_container_width = True)
310
+ plot_hold_container = st.empty()
311
+ st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
312
+
313
+ with tab5:
314
+ st.info(t_stamp)
315
+ st.info('The Over and Under percentages are a composite percentage based on simulations, historical performance, and implied probabilities, and may be different than you would expect based purely on the median projection. Likewise, the Edge of a bet is not the only indicator of if you should make the bet or not as the suggestion is using a base acceptable threshold to determine how much edge you should have for each stat category.')
316
+ if st.button("Reset Data/Load Data", key='reset5'):
317
+ st.cache_data.clear()
318
+ game_model, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
319
+ t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
320
+ col1, col2 = st.columns([1, 5])
321
+
322
+ with col2:
323
+ df_hold_container = st.empty()
324
+ info_hold_container = st.empty()
325
+ plot_hold_container = st.empty()
326
+ export_container = st.empty()
327
+
328
+ with col1:
329
+ game_select_var = st.selectbox('Select prop source', options = ['Draftkings', 'Pick6'])
330
+ if game_select_var == 'Draftkings':
331
+ prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
332
+ elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
333
+ prop_df = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
334
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
335
+ st.download_button(
336
+ label="Download Prop Source",
337
+ data=convert_df_to_csv(prop_df),
338
+ file_name='Nba_prop_source.csv',
339
+ mime='text/csv',
340
+ key='prop_source',
341
+ )
342
+ prop_type_var = st.selectbox('Select prop category', options = ['All Props', 'points', 'rebounds', 'assists', 'threes', 'PRA', 'points+rebounds',
343
+ 'points+assists', 'rebounds+assists'])
344
+ if prop_type_var == 'All Props':
345
+ st.info('please note that the All Props run can take some time, you will see progress as tables show up in the sim area to the right')
346
+
347
+ if st.button('Simulate Prop Category'):
348
+ with col2:
349
+ with df_hold_container.container():
350
+ if prop_type_var == 'All Props':
351
+ for prop in all_sim_vars:
352
+
353
+ if game_select_var == 'Draftkings':
354
+ prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
355
+ elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
356
+ prop_df = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
357
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
358
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == prop]
359
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
360
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
361
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
362
+ st.table(prop_df)
363
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
364
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
365
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
366
+
367
+ prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
368
+ over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
369
+ under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
370
+
371
+ total_sims = 5000
372
+
373
+ df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
374
+
375
+ if prop == 'points':
376
+ df['Median'] = df['Points']
377
+ elif prop == 'rebounds':
378
+ df['Median'] = df['Rebounds']
379
+ elif prop == 'assists':
380
+ df['Median'] = df['Assists']
381
+ elif prop == 'threes':
382
+ df['Median'] = df['3P']
383
+ elif prop == 'PRA':
384
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds'] + df['Assists']
385
+ elif prop == 'points+rebounds':
386
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds']
387
+ elif prop == 'points+assists':
388
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Assists']
389
+ elif prop == 'rebounds+assists':
390
+ df['Median'] = df['Assists'] + df['Rebounds']
391
+
392
+ flex_file = df
393
+ flex_file['Floor'] = (flex_file['Median'] * .25) + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
394
+ flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + 10 + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
395
+ flex_file['STD'] = (flex_file['Median']/4)
396
+ flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
397
+ flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
398
+
399
+ hold_file = flex_file
400
+ overall_file = flex_file
401
+ prop_file = flex_file
402
+
403
+ overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
404
+
405
+ for x in range(0,total_sims):
406
+ prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
407
+
408
+ prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
409
+
410
+ for x in range(0,total_sims):
411
+ overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
412
+
413
+ overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
414
+
415
+ players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
416
+
417
+ player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
418
+
419
+ prop_check = (overall_file - prop_file)
420
+
421
+ players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
422
+ players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
423
+ players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
424
+ players_only['Over'] = prop_check[prop_check > 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
425
+ players_only['Imp Over'] = players_only['Player'].map(over_dict)
426
+ players_only['Over%'] = players_only[["Over", "Imp Over"]].mean(axis=1)
427
+ players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
428
+ players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
429
+ players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
430
+ players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
431
+ players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
432
+ players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
433
+ players_only = players_only.loc[players_only['Mean_Outcome'] > 0]
434
+ players_only['Over_diff'] = players_only['Over%'] - players_only['Imp Over']
435
+ players_only['Under_diff'] = players_only['Under%'] - players_only['Imp Under']
436
+ players_only['Bet_check'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], players_only['Over_diff'] , players_only['Under_diff'])
437
+ players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
438
+ players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
439
+ players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
440
+ players_only['Prop type'] = prop
441
+
442
+ players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
443
+
444
+ leg_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Prop type', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge']]
445
+
446
+ sim_all_hold = pd.concat([sim_all_hold, leg_outcomes], ignore_index=True)
447
+
448
+ final_outcomes = sim_all_hold
449
+
450
+ elif prop_type_var != 'All Props':
451
+ if game_select_var == 'Draftkings':
452
+ prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
453
+ elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
454
+ prop_df = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
455
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
456
+ if prop_type_var == "points":
457
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'points']
458
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
459
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
460
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
461
+ st.table(prop_df)
462
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
463
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
464
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
465
+ elif prop_type_var == "rebounds":
466
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'rebounds']
467
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
468
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
469
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
470
+ st.table(prop_df)
471
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
472
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
473
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
474
+ elif prop_type_var == "assists":
475
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'assists']
476
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
477
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
478
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
479
+ st.table(prop_df)
480
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
481
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
482
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
483
+ elif prop_type_var == "threes":
484
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'threes']
485
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
486
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
487
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
488
+ st.table(prop_df)
489
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
490
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
491
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
492
+ elif prop_type_var == "PRA":
493
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'PRA']
494
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
495
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
496
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
497
+ st.table(prop_df)
498
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
499
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
500
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
501
+ elif prop_type_var == "points+rebounds":
502
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'points+rebounds']
503
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
504
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
505
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
506
+ st.table(prop_df)
507
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
508
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
509
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
510
+ elif prop_type_var == "points+assists":
511
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'points+assists']
512
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
513
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
514
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
515
+ st.table(prop_df)
516
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
517
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
518
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
519
+ elif prop_type_var == "rebounds+assists":
520
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'rebounds+assists']
521
+ prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
522
+ prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
523
+ prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
524
+ st.table(prop_df)
525
+ prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
526
+ prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
527
+ df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
528
+
529
+ prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
530
+ over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
531
+ under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
532
+
533
+ total_sims = 5000
534
+
535
+ df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
536
+
537
+ if prop_type_var == 'points':
538
+ df['Median'] = df['Points']
539
+ elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds':
540
+ df['Median'] = df['Rebounds']
541
+ elif prop_type_var == 'assists':
542
+ df['Median'] = df['Assists']
543
+ elif prop_type_var == 'threes':
544
+ df['Median'] = df['3P']
545
+ elif prop_type_var == 'PRA':
546
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds'] + df['Assists']
547
+ elif prop_type_var == 'points+rebounds':
548
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds']
549
+ elif prop_type_var == 'points+assists':
550
+ df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Assists']
551
+ elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds+assists':
552
+ df['Median'] = df['Assists'] + df['Rebounds']
553
+
554
+ flex_file = df
555
+ flex_file['Floor'] = (flex_file['Median'] * .25) + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
556
+ flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + 10 + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
557
+ flex_file['STD'] = (flex_file['Median']/4)
558
+ flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
559
+ flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
560
+
561
+ hold_file = flex_file
562
+ overall_file = flex_file
563
+ prop_file = flex_file
564
+
565
+ overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
566
+
567
+ for x in range(0,total_sims):
568
+ prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
569
+
570
+ prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
571
+
572
+ for x in range(0,total_sims):
573
+ overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
574
+
575
+ overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
576
+
577
+ players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
578
+
579
+ player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
580
+
581
+ prop_check = (overall_file - prop_file)
582
+
583
+ players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
584
+ players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
585
+ players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
586
+ players_only['Over'] = prop_check[prop_check > 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
587
+ players_only['Imp Over'] = players_only['Player'].map(over_dict)
588
+ players_only['Over%'] = players_only[["Over", "Imp Over"]].mean(axis=1)
589
+ players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
590
+ players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
591
+ players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
592
+ players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
593
+ players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
594
+ players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
595
+ players_only = players_only.loc[players_only['Mean_Outcome'] > 0]
596
+ players_only['Over_diff'] = players_only['Over%'] - players_only['Imp Over']
597
+ players_only['Under_diff'] = players_only['Under%'] - players_only['Imp Under']
598
+ players_only['Bet_check'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], players_only['Over_diff'] , players_only['Under_diff'])
599
+ players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
600
+ players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
601
+ players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
602
+
603
+ players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
604
+
605
+ final_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge']]
606
+
607
+ final_outcomes = final_outcomes[final_outcomes['Prop'] > 0]
608
+ final_outcomes = final_outcomes.sort_values(by='Edge', ascending=False)
609
+
610
+ with df_hold_container:
611
+ df_hold_container = st.empty()
612
+ st.dataframe(final_outcomes.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
613
+ with export_container:
614
+ export_container = st.empty()
615
+ st.download_button(
616
+ label="Export Projections",
617
+ data=convert_df_to_csv(final_outcomes),
618
+ file_name='Nba_prop_proj.csv',
619
+ mime='text/csv',
620
+ key='prop_proj',
621
+ )