Spaces:
Running
Running
James McCool
commited on
Commit
·
163393f
1
Parent(s):
029a42d
A lot of changes. Added loop for stat sim was the biggest change.
Browse files
app.py
CHANGED
|
@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ def init_baselines():
|
|
| 98 |
worksheet = sh.worksheet('DK_Build_Up')
|
| 99 |
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
|
| 100 |
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
|
| 101 |
-
raw_display.rename(columns={"Name": "Player"}
|
| 102 |
|
| 103 |
raw_baselines = raw_display[['Player', 'Position', 'Team', 'Opp', 'Minutes', 'FGM', 'FGA', 'FG2M', 'FG2A', 'Threes', 'FG3A', 'FTM', 'FTA', 'TRB', 'AST', 'STL', 'BLK', 'TOV']]
|
| 104 |
raw_baselines = raw_baselines[raw_baselines['Minutes'] > 0]
|
|
@@ -119,14 +119,15 @@ def init_baselines():
|
|
| 119 |
worksheet = sh.worksheet('Prop_Frame')
|
| 120 |
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
|
| 121 |
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
|
| 122 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 123 |
|
| 124 |
worksheet = sh.worksheet('Pick6_ingest')
|
| 125 |
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
|
| 126 |
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
|
| 127 |
pick_frame = raw_display.dropna(subset='Player')
|
| 128 |
|
| 129 |
-
prop_frame['
|
| 130 |
['Jaren Jackson Jr.', 'Nicolas Claxton', 'Jabari Smith Jr.', 'Luguentz Dort', 'Moritz Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma Jr.',
|
| 131 |
'Trey Murphy III', 'Cam Thomas'], inplace=True)
|
| 132 |
pick_frame['Player'].replace(['Jaren Jackson', 'Nic Claxton', 'Jabari Smith', 'Lu Dort', 'Moe Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma', 'Trey Murphy', 'Cameron Thomas'],
|
|
@@ -203,13 +204,13 @@ with tab3:
|
|
| 203 |
team_var5 = player_stats.Team.values.tolist()
|
| 204 |
book_split5 = st.radio("Would you like to view all books or specific ones?", ('All', 'Specific Books'), key='book_split5')
|
| 205 |
if book_split5 == 'Specific Books':
|
| 206 |
-
book_var5 = st.multiselect('Which books would you like to include in the tables?', options = prop_frame['
|
| 207 |
elif book_split5 == 'All':
|
| 208 |
-
book_var5 = prop_frame.
|
| 209 |
prop_type_var2 = st.selectbox('Select type of prop are you wanting to view', options = prop_table_options)
|
| 210 |
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame[prop_frame['Team'].isin(team_var5)]
|
| 211 |
-
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp[prop_frame_disp['
|
| 212 |
-
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp[prop_frame_disp['
|
| 213 |
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp.sort_values(by='Trending Over', ascending=False)
|
| 214 |
st.dataframe(prop_frame_disp.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(prop_format, precision=2), use_container_width = True)
|
| 215 |
st.download_button(
|
|
@@ -365,9 +366,8 @@ with tab4:
|
|
| 365 |
|
| 366 |
with tab5:
|
| 367 |
st.info(t_stamp)
|
| 368 |
-
st.info('The Over and Under percentages are a
|
| 369 |
-
st.
|
| 370 |
-
if st.button("Reset Data/Load Data", key='reset5'):
|
| 371 |
st.cache_data.clear()
|
| 372 |
game_model, raw_baselines, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
|
| 373 |
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
|
|
@@ -380,11 +380,11 @@ with tab5:
|
|
| 380 |
export_container = st.empty()
|
| 381 |
|
| 382 |
with col1:
|
| 383 |
-
game_select_var = st.selectbox('Select prop source', options = ['
|
| 384 |
-
if game_select_var == '
|
| 385 |
-
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 386 |
elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
|
| 387 |
-
prop_df = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 388 |
prop_df.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
|
| 389 |
st.download_button(
|
| 390 |
label="Download Prop Source",
|
|
@@ -393,62 +393,235 @@ with tab5:
|
|
| 393 |
mime='text/csv',
|
| 394 |
key='prop_source',
|
| 395 |
)
|
| 396 |
-
prop_type_var = st.selectbox('Select prop category', options = ['All Props', '
|
| 397 |
-
'points+assists', 'rebounds+assists'])
|
| 398 |
-
if prop_type_var == 'All Props':
|
| 399 |
-
st.info('please note that the All Props run can take some time, you will see progress as tables show up in the sim area to the right')
|
| 400 |
|
| 401 |
if st.button('Simulate Prop Category'):
|
| 402 |
with col2:
|
|
|
|
| 403 |
with df_hold_container.container():
|
| 404 |
if prop_type_var == 'All Props':
|
| 405 |
for prop in all_sim_vars:
|
| 406 |
|
| 407 |
-
if game_select_var == '
|
| 408 |
-
|
| 409 |
elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
|
| 410 |
-
|
| 411 |
-
|
| 412 |
-
|
| 413 |
-
|
| 414 |
-
|
| 415 |
-
|
| 416 |
-
|
| 417 |
-
|
| 418 |
-
|
| 419 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 420 |
|
| 421 |
prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
|
|
|
|
| 422 |
over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
|
|
|
|
| 423 |
under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
|
| 424 |
|
| 425 |
-
total_sims =
|
| 426 |
|
| 427 |
df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
|
| 428 |
-
|
| 429 |
-
if
|
| 430 |
df['Median'] = df['Points']
|
| 431 |
-
elif
|
| 432 |
df['Median'] = df['Rebounds']
|
| 433 |
-
elif
|
| 434 |
df['Median'] = df['Assists']
|
| 435 |
-
elif
|
| 436 |
df['Median'] = df['3P']
|
| 437 |
-
elif
|
| 438 |
-
df['Median'] = df['
|
| 439 |
-
elif
|
| 440 |
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds']
|
| 441 |
-
elif
|
| 442 |
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Assists']
|
| 443 |
-
elif
|
| 444 |
-
df['Median'] = df['
|
| 445 |
-
|
| 446 |
flex_file = df
|
| 447 |
-
flex_file['Floor'] =
|
| 448 |
-
flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] +
|
| 449 |
-
flex_file['STD'] =
|
| 450 |
flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 451 |
-
flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
|
| 452 |
|
| 453 |
hold_file = flex_file
|
| 454 |
overall_file = flex_file
|
|
@@ -459,12 +632,12 @@ with tab5:
|
|
| 459 |
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 460 |
prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
|
| 461 |
|
| 462 |
-
prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 463 |
|
| 464 |
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 465 |
overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
|
| 466 |
|
| 467 |
-
overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 468 |
|
| 469 |
players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
|
| 470 |
|
|
@@ -481,6 +654,7 @@ with tab5:
|
|
| 481 |
players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
|
| 482 |
players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
|
| 483 |
players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
|
|
|
|
| 484 |
players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 485 |
players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
|
| 486 |
players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
|
|
@@ -491,174 +665,17 @@ with tab5:
|
|
| 491 |
players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
|
| 492 |
players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
|
| 493 |
players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
|
| 494 |
-
players_only['Prop
|
| 495 |
|
| 496 |
players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
|
|
|
|
| 497 |
|
| 498 |
-
leg_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Prop
|
| 499 |
-
|
| 500 |
sim_all_hold = pd.concat([sim_all_hold, leg_outcomes], ignore_index=True)
|
| 501 |
|
| 502 |
final_outcomes = sim_all_hold
|
| 503 |
-
|
| 504 |
-
elif prop_type_var != 'All Props':
|
| 505 |
-
if game_select_var == 'Draftkings':
|
| 506 |
-
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 507 |
-
elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
|
| 508 |
-
prop_df = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 509 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
|
| 510 |
-
if prop_type_var == "points":
|
| 511 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'points']
|
| 512 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 513 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 514 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 515 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 516 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 517 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 518 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 519 |
-
elif prop_type_var == "rebounds":
|
| 520 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'rebounds']
|
| 521 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 522 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 523 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 524 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 525 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 526 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 527 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 528 |
-
elif prop_type_var == "assists":
|
| 529 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'assists']
|
| 530 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 531 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 532 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 533 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 534 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 535 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 536 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 537 |
-
elif prop_type_var == "threes":
|
| 538 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'threes']
|
| 539 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 540 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 541 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 542 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 543 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 544 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 545 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 546 |
-
elif prop_type_var == "PRA":
|
| 547 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'PRA']
|
| 548 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 549 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 550 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 551 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 552 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 553 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 554 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 555 |
-
elif prop_type_var == "points+rebounds":
|
| 556 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'points+rebounds']
|
| 557 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 558 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 559 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 560 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 561 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 562 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 563 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 564 |
-
elif prop_type_var == "points+assists":
|
| 565 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'points+assists']
|
| 566 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 567 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 568 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 569 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 570 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 571 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 572 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 573 |
-
elif prop_type_var == "rebounds+assists":
|
| 574 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'rebounds+assists']
|
| 575 |
-
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 576 |
-
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 577 |
-
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 578 |
-
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 579 |
-
prop_df['Over'] = np.where(prop_df['over_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['over_line'])/((-(prop_df['over_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['over_line']+101))
|
| 580 |
-
prop_df['Under'] = np.where(prop_df['under_line'] < 0, (-(prop_df['under_line'])/((-(prop_df['under_line']))+101)), 101/(prop_df['under_line']+101))
|
| 581 |
-
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 582 |
-
|
| 583 |
-
prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
|
| 584 |
-
over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
|
| 585 |
-
under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
|
| 586 |
-
|
| 587 |
-
total_sims = 5000
|
| 588 |
-
|
| 589 |
-
df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
|
| 590 |
-
|
| 591 |
-
if prop_type_var == 'points':
|
| 592 |
-
df['Median'] = df['Points']
|
| 593 |
-
elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds':
|
| 594 |
-
df['Median'] = df['Rebounds']
|
| 595 |
-
elif prop_type_var == 'assists':
|
| 596 |
-
df['Median'] = df['Assists']
|
| 597 |
-
elif prop_type_var == 'threes':
|
| 598 |
-
df['Median'] = df['3P']
|
| 599 |
-
elif prop_type_var == 'PRA':
|
| 600 |
-
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds'] + df['Assists']
|
| 601 |
-
elif prop_type_var == 'points+rebounds':
|
| 602 |
-
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds']
|
| 603 |
-
elif prop_type_var == 'points+assists':
|
| 604 |
-
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Assists']
|
| 605 |
-
elif prop_type_var == 'rebounds+assists':
|
| 606 |
-
df['Median'] = df['Assists'] + df['Rebounds']
|
| 607 |
-
|
| 608 |
-
flex_file = df
|
| 609 |
-
flex_file['Floor'] = (flex_file['Median'] * .25) + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
|
| 610 |
-
flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + 10 + (flex_file['Minutes'] * .25)
|
| 611 |
-
flex_file['STD'] = (flex_file['Median']/4)
|
| 612 |
-
flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 613 |
-
flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
|
| 614 |
-
|
| 615 |
-
hold_file = flex_file
|
| 616 |
-
overall_file = flex_file
|
| 617 |
-
prop_file = flex_file
|
| 618 |
-
|
| 619 |
-
overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
|
| 620 |
-
|
| 621 |
-
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 622 |
-
prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
|
| 623 |
-
|
| 624 |
-
prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 625 |
-
|
| 626 |
-
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 627 |
-
overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
|
| 628 |
-
|
| 629 |
-
overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 630 |
-
|
| 631 |
-
players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
|
| 632 |
-
|
| 633 |
-
player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
|
| 634 |
-
|
| 635 |
-
prop_check = (overall_file - prop_file)
|
| 636 |
-
|
| 637 |
-
players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
|
| 638 |
-
players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
|
| 639 |
-
players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
|
| 640 |
-
players_only['Over'] = prop_check[prop_check > 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
|
| 641 |
-
players_only['Imp Over'] = players_only['Player'].map(over_dict)
|
| 642 |
-
players_only['Over%'] = players_only[["Over", "Imp Over"]].mean(axis=1)
|
| 643 |
-
players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
|
| 644 |
-
players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
|
| 645 |
-
players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
|
| 646 |
-
players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 647 |
-
players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
|
| 648 |
-
players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
|
| 649 |
-
players_only = players_only.loc[players_only['Mean_Outcome'] > 0]
|
| 650 |
-
players_only['Over_diff'] = players_only['Over%'] - players_only['Imp Over']
|
| 651 |
-
players_only['Under_diff'] = players_only['Under%'] - players_only['Imp Under']
|
| 652 |
-
players_only['Bet_check'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], players_only['Over_diff'] , players_only['Under_diff'])
|
| 653 |
-
players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
|
| 654 |
-
players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
|
| 655 |
-
players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
|
| 656 |
-
|
| 657 |
-
players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
|
| 658 |
-
|
| 659 |
-
final_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge']]
|
| 660 |
|
| 661 |
-
final_outcomes = final_outcomes
|
| 662 |
final_outcomes = final_outcomes.sort_values(by='Edge', ascending=False)
|
| 663 |
|
| 664 |
with df_hold_container:
|
|
@@ -669,34 +686,7 @@ with tab5:
|
|
| 669 |
st.download_button(
|
| 670 |
label="Export Projections",
|
| 671 |
data=convert_df_to_csv(final_outcomes),
|
| 672 |
-
file_name='
|
| 673 |
mime='text/csv',
|
| 674 |
key='prop_proj',
|
| 675 |
-
)
|
| 676 |
-
with tab6:
|
| 677 |
-
st.info(t_stamp)
|
| 678 |
-
if st.button("Reset Data", key='reset6'):
|
| 679 |
-
st.cache_data.clear()
|
| 680 |
-
game_model, raw_baselines, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
|
| 681 |
-
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
|
| 682 |
-
split_var6 = st.radio("Would you like to view all teams or specific ones?", ('All', 'Specific Teams'), key='split_var6')
|
| 683 |
-
if split_var6 == 'Specific Teams':
|
| 684 |
-
team_var6 = st.multiselect('Which teams would you like to include in the tables?', options = player_stats['Team'].unique(), key='team_var6')
|
| 685 |
-
elif split_var6 == 'All':
|
| 686 |
-
team_var6 = player_stats.Team.values.tolist()
|
| 687 |
-
raw_stats_disp = raw_baselines[raw_baselines['Team'].isin(team_var6)]
|
| 688 |
-
st.header("Baselines to adjust")
|
| 689 |
-
editable_df = st.data_editor(
|
| 690 |
-
raw_stats_disp,
|
| 691 |
-
key="data",
|
| 692 |
-
hide_index=True,
|
| 693 |
-
use_container_width = True
|
| 694 |
-
)
|
| 695 |
-
st.header("Customized Projections")
|
| 696 |
-
st.dataframe(add_column(editable_df).style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(precision=2), use_container_width = True)
|
| 697 |
-
st.download_button(
|
| 698 |
-
label="Export Customizable Model",
|
| 699 |
-
data=convert_df_to_csv(player_stats),
|
| 700 |
-
file_name='NBA_stats_export.csv',
|
| 701 |
-
mime='text/csv',
|
| 702 |
-
)
|
|
|
|
| 98 |
worksheet = sh.worksheet('DK_Build_Up')
|
| 99 |
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
|
| 100 |
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
|
| 101 |
+
raw_display = raw_display.rename(columns={"Name": "Player"})
|
| 102 |
|
| 103 |
raw_baselines = raw_display[['Player', 'Position', 'Team', 'Opp', 'Minutes', 'FGM', 'FGA', 'FG2M', 'FG2A', 'Threes', 'FG3A', 'FTM', 'FTA', 'TRB', 'AST', 'STL', 'BLK', 'TOV']]
|
| 104 |
raw_baselines = raw_baselines[raw_baselines['Minutes'] > 0]
|
|
|
|
| 119 |
worksheet = sh.worksheet('Prop_Frame')
|
| 120 |
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
|
| 121 |
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
|
| 122 |
+
raw_display = raw_display.rename(columns={"Name": "Player", "OddsType": "book", "PropType": "prop_type"})
|
| 123 |
+
prop_frame = prop_frame.dropna(subset='Player')
|
| 124 |
|
| 125 |
worksheet = sh.worksheet('Pick6_ingest')
|
| 126 |
raw_display = pd.DataFrame(worksheet.get_all_records())
|
| 127 |
raw_display.replace('', np.nan, inplace=True)
|
| 128 |
pick_frame = raw_display.dropna(subset='Player')
|
| 129 |
|
| 130 |
+
prop_frame['Player'].replace(['Jaren Jackson', 'Nic Claxton', 'Jabari Smith', 'Lu Dort', 'Moe Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma', 'Trey Murphy', 'Cameron Thomas'],
|
| 131 |
['Jaren Jackson Jr.', 'Nicolas Claxton', 'Jabari Smith Jr.', 'Luguentz Dort', 'Moritz Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma Jr.',
|
| 132 |
'Trey Murphy III', 'Cam Thomas'], inplace=True)
|
| 133 |
pick_frame['Player'].replace(['Jaren Jackson', 'Nic Claxton', 'Jabari Smith', 'Lu Dort', 'Moe Wagner', 'Kyle Kuzma', 'Trey Murphy', 'Cameron Thomas'],
|
|
|
|
| 204 |
team_var5 = player_stats.Team.values.tolist()
|
| 205 |
book_split5 = st.radio("Would you like to view all books or specific ones?", ('All', 'Specific Books'), key='book_split5')
|
| 206 |
if book_split5 == 'Specific Books':
|
| 207 |
+
book_var5 = st.multiselect('Which books would you like to include in the tables?', options = prop_frame['book'].unique(), key='book_var5')
|
| 208 |
elif book_split5 == 'All':
|
| 209 |
+
book_var5 = prop_frame.book.values.tolist()
|
| 210 |
prop_type_var2 = st.selectbox('Select type of prop are you wanting to view', options = prop_table_options)
|
| 211 |
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame[prop_frame['Team'].isin(team_var5)]
|
| 212 |
+
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp[prop_frame_disp['book'].isin(book_var5)]
|
| 213 |
+
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp[prop_frame_disp['prop_type'] == prop_type_var2]
|
| 214 |
prop_frame_disp = prop_frame_disp.sort_values(by='Trending Over', ascending=False)
|
| 215 |
st.dataframe(prop_frame_disp.style.background_gradient(axis=0).background_gradient(cmap='RdYlGn').format(prop_format, precision=2), use_container_width = True)
|
| 216 |
st.download_button(
|
|
|
|
| 366 |
|
| 367 |
with tab5:
|
| 368 |
st.info(t_stamp)
|
| 369 |
+
st.info('The Over and Under percentages are a compositve percentage based on simulations, historical performance, and implied probabilities, and may be different than you would expect based purely on the median projection. Likewise, the Edge of a bet is not the only indicator of if you should make the bet or not as the suggestion is using a base acceptable threshold to determine how much edge you should have for each stat category.')
|
| 370 |
+
if st.button("Reset Data/Load Data", key='reset6'):
|
|
|
|
| 371 |
st.cache_data.clear()
|
| 372 |
game_model, raw_baselines, player_stats, prop_frame, pick_frame, timestamp = init_baselines()
|
| 373 |
t_stamp = f"Last Update: " + str(timestamp) + f" CST"
|
|
|
|
| 380 |
export_container = st.empty()
|
| 381 |
|
| 382 |
with col1:
|
| 383 |
+
game_select_var = st.selectbox('Select prop source', options = ['Aggregate', 'Pick6'])
|
| 384 |
+
if game_select_var == 'Aggregate':
|
| 385 |
+
prop_df = prop_frame[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 386 |
elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
|
| 387 |
+
prop_df = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 388 |
prop_df.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
|
| 389 |
st.download_button(
|
| 390 |
label="Download Prop Source",
|
|
|
|
| 393 |
mime='text/csv',
|
| 394 |
key='prop_source',
|
| 395 |
)
|
| 396 |
+
prop_type_var = st.selectbox('Select prop category', options = ['All Props', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_ASSISTS', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_3_POINTERS_MADE', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_ASSISTS', 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS'])
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 397 |
|
| 398 |
if st.button('Simulate Prop Category'):
|
| 399 |
with col2:
|
| 400 |
+
|
| 401 |
with df_hold_container.container():
|
| 402 |
if prop_type_var == 'All Props':
|
| 403 |
for prop in all_sim_vars:
|
| 404 |
|
| 405 |
+
if game_select_var == 'Aggregate':
|
| 406 |
+
prop_df_raw = prop_frame[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 407 |
elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
|
| 408 |
+
prop_df_raw = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 409 |
+
prop_df_raw.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
|
| 410 |
+
|
| 411 |
+
for books in ['FANDUEL', 'DRAFTKINGS', 'BET365', 'CONSENSUS']:
|
| 412 |
+
prop_df = prop_df_raw.loc[prop_df_raw['book'] == books]
|
| 413 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == prop]
|
| 414 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 415 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 416 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 417 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 418 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 419 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 420 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 421 |
+
|
| 422 |
+
prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
|
| 423 |
+
team_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Team))
|
| 424 |
+
book_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.book))
|
| 425 |
+
over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
|
| 426 |
+
under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
|
| 427 |
+
|
| 428 |
+
total_sims = 1000
|
| 429 |
+
|
| 430 |
+
df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
|
| 431 |
+
|
| 432 |
+
if prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS":
|
| 433 |
+
df['Median'] = df['Points']
|
| 434 |
+
elif prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS":
|
| 435 |
+
df['Median'] = df['Rebounds']
|
| 436 |
+
elif prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_ASSISTS":
|
| 437 |
+
df['Median'] = df['Assists']
|
| 438 |
+
elif prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_3_POINTERS_MADE":
|
| 439 |
+
df['Median'] = df['3P']
|
| 440 |
+
elif prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS":
|
| 441 |
+
df['Median'] = df['PRA']
|
| 442 |
+
elif prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS":
|
| 443 |
+
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds']
|
| 444 |
+
elif prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_ASSISTS":
|
| 445 |
+
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Assists']
|
| 446 |
+
elif prop == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS":
|
| 447 |
+
df['Median'] = df['Rebounds'] + df['Assists']
|
| 448 |
+
|
| 449 |
+
flex_file = df
|
| 450 |
+
flex_file['Floor'] = flex_file['Median'] * .25
|
| 451 |
+
flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + (flex_file['Median'] * 1.75)
|
| 452 |
+
flex_file['STD'] = flex_file['Median'] / 4
|
| 453 |
+
flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 454 |
+
flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'book', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
|
| 455 |
+
|
| 456 |
+
hold_file = flex_file
|
| 457 |
+
overall_file = flex_file
|
| 458 |
+
prop_file = flex_file
|
| 459 |
+
|
| 460 |
+
overall_players = overall_file[['Player']]
|
| 461 |
+
|
| 462 |
+
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 463 |
+
prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
|
| 464 |
+
|
| 465 |
+
prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'book', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 466 |
+
|
| 467 |
+
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 468 |
+
overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
|
| 469 |
+
|
| 470 |
+
overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'book', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 471 |
+
|
| 472 |
+
players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
|
| 473 |
+
|
| 474 |
+
player_outcomes = pd.merge(players_only, overall_file, left_index=True, right_index=True)
|
| 475 |
+
|
| 476 |
+
prop_check = (overall_file - prop_file)
|
| 477 |
+
|
| 478 |
+
players_only['Mean_Outcome'] = overall_file.mean(axis=1)
|
| 479 |
+
players_only['10%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.1, axis=1)
|
| 480 |
+
players_only['90%'] = overall_file.quantile(0.9, axis=1)
|
| 481 |
+
players_only['Over'] = prop_check[prop_check > 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
|
| 482 |
+
players_only['Imp Over'] = players_only['Player'].map(over_dict)
|
| 483 |
+
players_only['Over%'] = players_only[["Over", "Imp Over"]].mean(axis=1)
|
| 484 |
+
players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
|
| 485 |
+
players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
|
| 486 |
+
players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
|
| 487 |
+
players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 488 |
+
players_only['Book'] = players_only['Player'].map(book_dict)
|
| 489 |
+
players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
|
| 490 |
+
players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
|
| 491 |
+
players_only = players_only.loc[players_only['Mean_Outcome'] > 0]
|
| 492 |
+
players_only['Over_diff'] = players_only['Over%'] - players_only['Imp Over']
|
| 493 |
+
players_only['Under_diff'] = players_only['Under%'] - players_only['Imp Under']
|
| 494 |
+
players_only['Bet_check'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], players_only['Over_diff'] , players_only['Under_diff'])
|
| 495 |
+
players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
|
| 496 |
+
players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
|
| 497 |
+
players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
|
| 498 |
+
players_only['Prop Type'] = prop
|
| 499 |
+
|
| 500 |
+
players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
|
| 501 |
+
players_only['Team'] = players_only['Player'].map(team_dict)
|
| 502 |
+
|
| 503 |
+
leg_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Team', 'Book', 'Prop Type', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge']]
|
| 504 |
+
sim_all_hold = pd.concat([sim_all_hold, leg_outcomes], ignore_index=True)
|
| 505 |
+
|
| 506 |
+
final_outcomes = sim_all_hold
|
| 507 |
+
|
| 508 |
+
elif prop_type_var != 'All Props':
|
| 509 |
+
|
| 510 |
+
|
| 511 |
+
if game_select_var == 'Aggregate':
|
| 512 |
+
prop_df_raw = prop_frame[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 513 |
+
elif game_select_var == 'Pick6':
|
| 514 |
+
prop_df_raw = pick_frame[['Full_name', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line', 'prop_type']]
|
| 515 |
+
prop_df_raw.rename(columns={"Full_name": "Player"}, inplace = True)
|
| 516 |
+
|
| 517 |
+
for books in ['FANDUEL', 'DRAFTKINGS', 'BET365', 'CONSENSUS']:
|
| 518 |
+
prop_df = prop_df_raw.loc[prop_df_raw['book'] == books]
|
| 519 |
+
if prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS":
|
| 520 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS']
|
| 521 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 522 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 523 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 524 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 525 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 526 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 527 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 528 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS":
|
| 529 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS']
|
| 530 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 531 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 532 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 533 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 534 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 535 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 536 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 537 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_ASSISTS":
|
| 538 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_ASSISTS']
|
| 539 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 540 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 541 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 542 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 543 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 544 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 545 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 546 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_3_POINTERS_MADE":
|
| 547 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_3_POINTERS_MADE']
|
| 548 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 549 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 550 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 551 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 552 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 553 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 554 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 555 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS":
|
| 556 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS']
|
| 557 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 558 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 559 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 560 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 561 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 562 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 563 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 564 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS":
|
| 565 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS']
|
| 566 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 567 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 568 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 569 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 570 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 571 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 572 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 573 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_ASSISTS":
|
| 574 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_ASSISTS']
|
| 575 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 576 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 577 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 578 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 579 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 580 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 581 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 582 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS":
|
| 583 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['prop_type'] == 'NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS']
|
| 584 |
+
prop_df = prop_df[['Player', 'book', 'over_prop', 'over_line', 'under_line']]
|
| 585 |
+
prop_df.rename(columns={"over_prop": "Prop"}, inplace = True)
|
| 586 |
+
prop_df = prop_df.loc[prop_df['Prop'] != 0]
|
| 587 |
+
st.table(prop_df)
|
| 588 |
+
prop_df['Over'] = 1 / prop_df['over_line']
|
| 589 |
+
prop_df['Under'] = 1 / prop_df['under_line']
|
| 590 |
+
df = pd.merge(player_stats, prop_df, how='left', left_on=['Player'], right_on = ['Player'])
|
| 591 |
|
| 592 |
prop_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Prop))
|
| 593 |
+
book_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.book))
|
| 594 |
over_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Over))
|
| 595 |
+
team_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Team))
|
| 596 |
under_dict = dict(zip(df.Player, df.Under))
|
| 597 |
|
| 598 |
+
total_sims = 1000
|
| 599 |
|
| 600 |
df.replace("", 0, inplace=True)
|
| 601 |
+
|
| 602 |
+
if prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS":
|
| 603 |
df['Median'] = df['Points']
|
| 604 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS":
|
| 605 |
df['Median'] = df['Rebounds']
|
| 606 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_ASSISTS":
|
| 607 |
df['Median'] = df['Assists']
|
| 608 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_3_POINTERS_MADE":
|
| 609 |
df['Median'] = df['3P']
|
| 610 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS":
|
| 611 |
+
df['Median'] = df['PRA']
|
| 612 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_REBOUNDS":
|
| 613 |
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Rebounds']
|
| 614 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_POINTS_ASSISTS":
|
| 615 |
df['Median'] = df['Points'] + df['Assists']
|
| 616 |
+
elif prop_type_var == "NBA_GAME_PLAYER_REBOUNDS_ASSISTS":
|
| 617 |
+
df['Median'] = df['Rebounds'] + df['Assists']
|
| 618 |
+
|
| 619 |
flex_file = df
|
| 620 |
+
flex_file['Floor'] = flex_file['Median'] * .25
|
| 621 |
+
flex_file['Ceiling'] = flex_file['Median'] + (flex_file['Median'] * 1.75)
|
| 622 |
+
flex_file['STD'] = flex_file['Median'] / 4
|
| 623 |
flex_file['Prop'] = flex_file['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 624 |
+
flex_file = flex_file[['Player', 'book', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD']]
|
| 625 |
|
| 626 |
hold_file = flex_file
|
| 627 |
overall_file = flex_file
|
|
|
|
| 632 |
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 633 |
prop_file[x] = prop_file['Prop']
|
| 634 |
|
| 635 |
+
prop_file = prop_file.drop(['Player', 'book', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 636 |
|
| 637 |
for x in range(0,total_sims):
|
| 638 |
overall_file[x] = np.random.normal(overall_file['Median'],overall_file['STD'])
|
| 639 |
|
| 640 |
+
overall_file=overall_file.drop(['Player', 'book', 'Prop', 'Floor', 'Median', 'Ceiling', 'STD'], axis=1)
|
| 641 |
|
| 642 |
players_only = hold_file[['Player']]
|
| 643 |
|
|
|
|
| 654 |
players_only['Under'] = prop_check[prop_check < 0].count(axis=1)/float(total_sims)
|
| 655 |
players_only['Imp Under'] = players_only['Player'].map(under_dict)
|
| 656 |
players_only['Under%'] = players_only[["Under", "Imp Under"]].mean(axis=1)
|
| 657 |
+
players_only['Book'] = players_only['Player'].map(book_dict)
|
| 658 |
players_only['Prop'] = players_only['Player'].map(prop_dict)
|
| 659 |
players_only['Prop_avg'] = players_only['Prop'].mean() / 100
|
| 660 |
players_only['prop_threshold'] = .10
|
|
|
|
| 665 |
players_only['Bet_suggest'] = np.where(players_only['Over_diff'] > players_only['Under_diff'], "Over" , "Under")
|
| 666 |
players_only['Bet?'] = np.where(players_only['Bet_check'] >= players_only['prop_threshold'], players_only['Bet_suggest'], "No Bet")
|
| 667 |
players_only['Edge'] = players_only['Bet_check']
|
| 668 |
+
players_only['Prop Type'] = prop_type_var
|
| 669 |
|
| 670 |
players_only['Player'] = hold_file[['Player']]
|
| 671 |
+
players_only['Team'] = players_only['Player'].map(team_dict)
|
| 672 |
|
| 673 |
+
leg_outcomes = players_only[['Player', 'Team', 'Book', 'Prop Type', 'Prop', 'Mean_Outcome', 'Imp Over', 'Over%', 'Imp Under', 'Under%', 'Bet?', 'Edge']]
|
|
|
|
| 674 |
sim_all_hold = pd.concat([sim_all_hold, leg_outcomes], ignore_index=True)
|
| 675 |
|
| 676 |
final_outcomes = sim_all_hold
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 677 |
|
| 678 |
+
final_outcomes = final_outcomes.dropna()
|
| 679 |
final_outcomes = final_outcomes.sort_values(by='Edge', ascending=False)
|
| 680 |
|
| 681 |
with df_hold_container:
|
|
|
|
| 686 |
st.download_button(
|
| 687 |
label="Export Projections",
|
| 688 |
data=convert_df_to_csv(final_outcomes),
|
| 689 |
+
file_name='NBA_prop_proj.csv',
|
| 690 |
mime='text/csv',
|
| 691 |
key='prop_proj',
|
| 692 |
+
)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|