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import os
import yaml
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import streamlit as st
from pathlib import Path
import core
import plotting
from tirex2.demo import Demo
CKPT_PATH = os.environ.get("TIREX2_CKPT", "NX-AI/TiRex-2")
DEVICE = os.environ.get("TIREX2_DEVICE", "cpu")
st.set_page_config(page_title="TiRex-2 Forecasting", page_icon="🦖", layout="wide")
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- styling
with open("src/style.css") as fh:
style = fh.read()
st.markdown(
f"""
<style>
{style}
</style>
""",
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- model
@st.cache_resource(show_spinner=False)
def get_model(ckpt_path: str, device: str):
from tirex2 import load_model
return load_model(ckpt_path, device=device)
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def cached_forecast(
values: np.ndarray,
names: tuple[str, ...],
horizon: int,
tta_diff,
tta_sign_flip,
_model,
context_len: int,
prediction_start: int,
cov_values: np.ndarray | None = None,
cov_names: tuple[str, ...] = (),
cov_mode: str = "future",
):
"""Cached wrapper around core.run_forecast (``_model`` is excluded from the cache key)."""
return core.run_forecast(
_model, values, list(names), horizon=horizon, multivariate=bool(cov_names),
context_len=context_len, tta_diff=tta_diff, tta_sign_flip=tta_sign_flip,
cov_values=cov_values, cov_names=list(cov_names), cov_mode=cov_mode,
prediction_start=prediction_start,
)
def logo_path(name: str) -> str | None:
p = os.path.join("static", name)
return p if os.path.exists(p) else None
def read_table(file_or_path, *, filename: str, first_row_header: bool = True) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Read a user-facing table with explicit header handling."""
ext = str(filename).split(".")[-1].lower()
header = 0 if first_row_header else None
if ext == "csv":
return pd.read_csv(file_or_path, header=header)
if ext in ("xls", "xlsx"):
return pd.read_excel(file_or_path, header=header)
if ext == "parquet":
return pd.read_parquet(file_or_path)
raise ValueError("Unsupported format. Use CSV, XLS, XLSX, or PARQUET.")
def infer_default_horizon(df: pd.DataFrame, time_column: str | None = None) -> int:
if not time_column or time_column not in df.columns:
return 64
parsed = pd.to_datetime(df[time_column], errors="coerce")
if parsed.isna().any() or len(parsed) < 2:
return 64
delta = parsed.diff().dropna().median()
if pd.isna(delta) or delta <= pd.Timedelta(0):
return 64
if delta <= pd.Timedelta(hours=1):
return 168
if delta <= pd.Timedelta(days=1):
return 30
if delta <= pd.Timedelta(days=8):
return 12
return 24
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def dataset_catalog() -> dict[str, dict]:
info_path = Path("data") / "dataset_info.yaml"
if not info_path.exists():
return {}
with info_path.open("r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
raw = yaml.safe_load(f) or {}
catalog: dict[str, dict] = {}
for item in raw.get("datasets", []):
name = str(item["name"])
path = Path(item["path"])
if not path.is_absolute():
path = info_path.parent / path
meta = dict(item)
meta["path"] = str(path)
try:
preview = read_table(meta["path"], filename=meta["path"], first_row_header=True)
meta["horizon"] = int(meta.get("horizon") or infer_default_horizon(preview, meta.get("time_column")))
except Exception:
meta["horizon"] = int(meta.get("horizon") or 64)
catalog[name] = meta
return catalog
def plot_x_values(time_values, *, start: int, length: int) -> np.ndarray | pd.DatetimeIndex:
if time_values is None:
return np.arange(start, start + length)
parsed = pd.to_datetime(pd.Series(time_values), errors="coerce")
if parsed.isna().any() or len(parsed) < 2:
return np.arange(start, start + length)
freq = pd.infer_freq(parsed) if len(parsed) >= 3 else None
if freq is not None:
full = pd.date_range(parsed.iloc[0], periods=start + length, freq=freq)
else:
deltas = parsed.diff().dropna()
step = deltas.median()
if pd.isna(step) or step <= pd.Timedelta(0):
return np.arange(start, start + length)
full = pd.DatetimeIndex([parsed.iloc[0] + i * step for i in range(start + length)])
return full[start:start + length]
def demo_examples() -> dict[str, Demo]:
return {
"Demo: Holiday Calendar": Demo.create_holidays_demo(),
"Demo: Non-stationary Drivers": Demo.create_nonstationary_demo(),
}
def demo_to_series_table(demo: Demo) -> tuple[core.SeriesTable, list[str]]:
names = ["target"]
values = [np.concatenate([demo.target_context, demo.target_future]).astype(np.float32)]
cov_names: list[str] = []
for i, cov in enumerate(demo.covariates, start=1):
cov_name = cov.label.split(" (")[0].strip().lower().replace(" ", "_").replace("-", "_")
cov_name = cov_name or f"covariate_{i}"
names.append(cov_name)
cov_names.append(cov_name)
future = cov.future if cov.future is not None else np.full(demo.horizon, np.nan, dtype=np.float32)
values.append(np.concatenate([cov.context, future]).astype(np.float32))
return core.SeriesTable(names=names, values=np.asarray(values, dtype=np.float32)), cov_names
def render_forecast(
*, result, baseline, target_name, prediction_length,
all_cov_names, cov_mode, use_cov, plot_x, plot_context_len, **_,
) -> None:
"""Render a stored forecast bundle: metrics, comparison plot, and CSV download."""
with st.container(border=True):
median_index = result.median_idx()
mae = baseline_mae = improvement = None
plot_ground_truth = None
if result.truth is not None:
truth_len = len(result.truth[0])
plot_ground_truth = result.truth[0]
mae = float(np.abs(result.quantiles[0, median_index, :truth_len] - result.truth[0]).mean())
if baseline is not None and baseline.truth is not None:
b_idx = baseline.median_idx()
baseline_mae = float(np.abs(baseline.quantiles[0, b_idx, :truth_len] - result.truth[0]).mean())
improvement = 100 * (baseline_mae - mae) / (baseline_mae + 1e-9)
if baseline_mae is not None:
helped = improvement >= 0
row1 = st.columns(3)
row1[0].metric(
"Error (MAE) univariate", f"{baseline_mae:.3g}",
help="**Mean Absolute Error** of the univariate (target-only) forecast "
"against the held-out actuals the average size of the miss, in the "
"target's own units. **Lower is better.** This is the baseline the "
"covariates are compared against.",
)
row1[1].metric(
"Error (MAE) multivariate", f"{mae:.3g}",
delta=f"{mae - baseline_mae:+.3g}", delta_color="inverse",
help="Forecast error once the covariates inform the model, against the same "
"actuals. **Lower is better.** The delta is the change from the "
"univariate baseline a green ↓ means the covariates shrank the error.",
)
row1[2].metric(
"Error reduction", f"{improvement:+.1f}%",
delta="covariates helped" if helped else "covariates hurt",
delta_color="green" if helped else "red",
delta_arrow="up" if helped else "down",
help="How much the covariates cut the error relative to the univariate "
"baseline: 100 × (MAE·univariate − MAE·multivariate) / MAE·univariate. "
"**Higher is better** — positive (green) means covariates reduced the "
"error, negative (red) means they made it worse.",
)
st.columns([1, 2])[0].metric(
"Inference", f"{(result.inference_s + baseline.inference_s) * 1000:.0f} ms",
help="Total wall-clock time for both forecasts (univariate + multivariate). "
"**Lower is faster.**",
)
else:
cols = st.columns(2 if mae is not None else 1)
cols[0].metric(
"Inference", f"{result.inference_s * 1000:.0f} ms",
help="Wall-clock time to compute this forecast. **Lower is faster.**",
)
if mae is not None:
cols[1].metric(
"MAE vs actual", f"{mae:.3g}",
help="**Mean Absolute Error** of the forecast median against the held-out "
"actuals — the average size of the miss, in the target's own units "
"(shown when the forecast starts before the end of the data). "
"**Lower is better.**",
)
if use_cov:
mode_txt = ("future-known through the forecast horizon"
if cov_mode == "future" else "past (history only)")
st.caption(f"Covariates: {', '.join(all_cov_names)} · {mode_txt}")
# With covariates: two stacked, directly comparable target panels (univariate baseline
# vs. covariate-informed) plus one panel per covariate. Otherwise a single target panel.
# Zoom the view to where the forecast begins by showing at most ~3x the horizon of
# context (the tirex2 default), capped at the actual context so we never index past it.
# No context is cut from the plot data; only the visible x-range is narrowed.
zoom_context = min(plot_context_len, 3 * prediction_length)
fig, n_plot_rows = plotting.build_forecast_figure(
result, baseline, plot_x,
max_context_to_show=zoom_context, ground_truth=plot_ground_truth,
)
plotting.style_forecast_figure(fig, n_plot_rows)
st.plotly_chart(fig, width="stretch", config={"displaylogo": False})
# Download median forecasts (plus actuals when a holdout was used).
future_x = np.asarray(plot_x[plot_context_len:plot_context_len + prediction_length])
out = {"time_index": future_x, f"{target_name} (median)": result.quantiles[0, median_index]}
if result.truth is not None:
actual = np.full(prediction_length, np.nan, dtype=np.float32)
actual[: len(result.truth[0])] = result.truth[0]
out[f"{target_name} (actual)"] = actual
st.download_button("⬇ Download median forecasts (CSV)",
pd.DataFrame(out).to_csv(index=False).encode(),
file_name="tirex2_forecast.csv", mime="text/csv")
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- header
st.markdown('<h1 class="tx-hero-title">🦖 TiRex-2 Forecasting</h1>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
st.markdown(
'<p class="tx-sub">Zero-shot time-series forecasting univariate and multivariate '
"powered by the xLSTM-based TiRex-2.</p>",
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
st.markdown(
'<span class="tx-pill">zero-shot</span>'
'<span class="tx-pill">multivariate</span>'
'<span class="tx-pill">covariates</span>'
'<span class="tx-pill">quantile forecasts</span>',
unsafe_allow_html=True,
)
st.space(size="small")
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- sidebar
with st.sidebar:
if logo_path("nxai_logo.png"):
st.image(logo_path("nxai_logo.png"), width="stretch")
st.markdown("### Model")
status = st.empty()
try:
with st.spinner("Loading TiRex-2..."):
model = get_model(CKPT_PATH, DEVICE)
ctx_len = int(getattr(model, "context_len", core.DEFAULT_CONTEXT_LEN))
fut_len = int(getattr(model, "future_len", core.DEFAULT_FUTURE_LEN))
n_q = len(model.quantiles)
status.success(f"TiRex-2 ready · {DEVICE.upper()}")
st.caption(f"checkpoint: `{CKPT_PATH}` \ncontext ≤ {ctx_len} · horizon ≤ {fut_len} · {n_q} quantiles")
except Exception as exc: # pragma: no cover - surfaced in UI
model = None
ctx_len, fut_len = core.DEFAULT_CONTEXT_LEN, core.DEFAULT_FUTURE_LEN
status.error("Model failed to load")
st.exception(exc)
st.info(
"Set `TIREX2_CKPT` to a directory containing `model-config.yaml` and "
"`model.ckpt`, or to a Hugging Face repo id you can access."
)
with st.expander("Advanced inference", expanded=False):
st.caption("Test time augmentation. Leave on *checkpoint default* unless experimenting.")
tta_diff_choice = st.selectbox("tta_diff (differencing)", ["checkpoint default", "on", "off"], index=0)
tta_flip_choice = st.selectbox("tta_sign_flip", ["checkpoint default", "on", "off"], index=0)
tta_diff = {"checkpoint default": None, "on": True, "off": False}[tta_diff_choice]
tta_flip = {"checkpoint default": None, "on": True, "off": False}[tta_flip_choice]
if model is None:
st.stop()
# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- tabs
tab_forecast, tab_guide = st.tabs(["📈 Forecast", "ℹ️ Guide"])
# =========================================================================== FORECAST
with tab_forecast:
cfg, view = st.columns([0.34, 0.66], gap="large")
with cfg:
with st.container(border=True):
df = None
default_horizon = 64
data_label = ""
table = None
target_name = None
default_target_name = None
default_cov_names: list[str] = []
time_values = None
time_column = ""
default_time_column = ""
first_row_header = True
seasonal_pattern_labels: list[str] = []
holiday_country = core.DEFAULT_HOLIDAY_COUNTRY
with st.expander("Data", expanded=True):
source = st.radio("Source", ["Example dataset", "Upload file"], horizontal=True, label_visibility="collapsed")
if source == "Example dataset":
demos = demo_examples()
catalog = dataset_catalog()
example_names = list(demos) + list(catalog)
preset_name = st.selectbox("Example dataset", example_names)
data_label = preset_name
if preset_name in demos:
demo = demos[preset_name]
table, default_cov_names = demo_to_series_table(demo)
default_target_name = "target"
default_horizon = demo.horizon
st.caption(demo.description)
else:
preset = catalog[preset_name]
default_horizon = preset["horizon"]
try:
df = read_table(preset["path"], filename=preset["path"], first_row_header=True)
default_time_column = str(preset.get("time_column") or "")
default_target_name = str(preset.get("data_column") or "")
desc = preset.get("description")
if desc:
st.caption(desc)
except Exception as exc:
st.error(f"Could not read preset: {exc}")
else:
with st.form("upload_form", border=False):
up = st.file_uploader("CSV / XLSX / Parquet", type=["csv", "xls", "xlsx", "parquet"])
first_row_header = st.checkbox(
"First row contains column names",
value=True,
help="Turn this off when your uploaded file starts immediately with numeric data.",
)
loaded = st.form_submit_button("Load dataset", width="stretch")
if loaded:
if up is None:
st.warning("Choose a file before loading.")
else:
try:
st.session_state["uploaded_df"] = read_table(
up, filename=up.name, first_row_header=first_row_header
)
st.session_state["uploaded_label"] = up.name
except Exception as exc:
st.session_state.pop("uploaded_df", None)
st.error(f"Could not read file: {exc}")
df = st.session_state.get("uploaded_df")
data_label = st.session_state.get("uploaded_label", "")
if df is None:
st.caption("One series per column. Press **Load dataset** after choosing a file.")
# Unified time-column selection for both example CSVs and uploads.
if df is not None:
options = [""] + list(df.columns)
time_column = st.selectbox(
"Time column (optional)",
options,
index=options.index(default_time_column) if default_time_column in options else 0,
format_func=lambda x: "Use step index" if x == "" else str(x),
help=(
"A date/time column is dropped from the forecastable series and shown as "
"real dates on the time axis. Leave blank to index by step."
),
)
if time_column:
time_values = df[time_column].copy()
time_df = df.drop(columns=[time_column])
if source == "Upload file":
default_horizon = infer_default_horizon(df, time_column)
else:
time_df = df
try:
table = core.to_series_table(time_df)
except Exception as exc:
st.error(f"Could not parse table: {exc}")
cov_names: list[str] = []
cov_mode = "future"
with st.expander("Series", expanded=False):
if table is not None:
if table.length > ctx_len:
st.caption(f"Long series - only the last {ctx_len} steps are used as context.")
# Scope widget state to the current dataset. Without a dataset-specific key,
# Streamlit reuses one widget identity across datasets: the multiselect keeps
# a stale selection (dropping names absent from the new dataset) and ignores
# `default=`, so covariates vanish - then reappear when switching source
# recreates the widget. A per-dataset key makes selection deterministic.
ds_key = data_label or "none"
target_name = st.selectbox(
"Target series",
table.names,
index=table.names.index(default_target_name) if default_target_name in table.names else 0,
help="The single series TiRex-2 should forecast.",
key=f"target_series::{ds_key}",
)
# Optional covariates: any series not chosen as the forecast target.
cov_choices = [n for n in table.names if n != target_name]
if cov_choices:
# Key on the dataset only - NOT on target_name. A key that embeds another
# widget's live value (target_name) makes this multiselect's identity depend
# on the target selectbox's value within the same rerun; on a dataset switch
# both widgets are recreated at once and Streamlit needs an extra rerun to
# settle, so the covariate picker fails to paint until the widgets are torn
# down (e.g. by toggling the data source). A stable per-dataset key renders
# deterministically; `cov_choices` already excludes the current target, and
# Streamlit drops any stored selection no longer in the options.
cov_names = st.multiselect(
"Data covariates (optional)", cov_choices,
default=[n for n in default_cov_names if n in cov_choices],
help="Known driver series used to inform the forecast (not forecast themselves).",
key=f"data_covariates::{ds_key}",
)
# --- Generated seasonal / holiday covariates (temporarily disabled) -----
# Dropped for now; kept commented so the calendar-covariate path can be
# restored later. `seasonal_pattern_labels` stays [] and `holiday_country`
# keeps its default, so the run block below produces no seasonal covariates.
# seasonal_options = list(core.SEASONAL_PATTERNS)
# if time_values is not None:
# seasonal_options += [core.WEEKEND_PATTERN, core.HOLIDAY_PATTERN]
# seasonal_pattern_labels = st.multiselect(
# "Generated seasonal covariates",
# seasonal_options,
# help=(
# "Adds future-known calendar signals (sin/cos per cycle). Cycles use step "
# "numbers unless a time column is set; weekend and holiday flags require one."
# ),
# )
#
# if core.HOLIDAY_PATTERN in seasonal_pattern_labels:
# countries = core.supported_holiday_countries()
# default_idx = countries.index(core.DEFAULT_HOLIDAY_COUNTRY) if core.DEFAULT_HOLIDAY_COUNTRY in countries else 0
# holiday_country = st.selectbox("Holiday calendar (country)", countries, index=default_idx)
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------
if cov_names or seasonal_pattern_labels:
cov_mode = {
"Known through the forecast horizon": "future",
"History only (past)": "past",
}[st.radio(
"Covariate values are...",
["Known through the forecast horizon", "History only (past)"],
help="Future-known uses covariate values from the context window through "
"the chosen horizon. Past-only conditions on covariate history only.",
)]
else:
st.caption("Pick a dataset first to choose series.")
with st.expander("Forecast", expanded=False):
prediction_length = st.slider("Horizon (steps ahead)", 1, fut_len, min(default_horizon, fut_len),
help="How many future steps to predict.")
if table is not None:
default_start = table.length - prediction_length if table.length > prediction_length else table.length
prediction_start = st.slider(
"Forecast starts at time index",
min_value=1,
max_value=table.length,
value=max(1, default_start),
help=(
"The model observes data before this index. Pick an earlier index to backtest "
"against ground truth, or the last index to forecast from the data end."
),
)
available_truth = max(0, min(prediction_length, table.length - prediction_start))
if available_truth:
st.caption(f"{available_truth} ground-truth step(s) available for comparison.")
else:
st.caption("Forecast starts at the end of the available target data.")
else:
prediction_start = 1
st.write("")
auto_run = st.toggle(
"Run automatically",
value=False,
help="Re-run the forecast on every change. Disables the manual button below.",
)
run = st.button("▶ Run forecast", type="primary", width="stretch", disabled=auto_run)
with view:
if table is None:
st.info("Choose an example dataset or upload a file on the left to begin.")
elif target_name is None:
st.warning("Select a target series to forecast.")
else:
# Compute a forecast ONLY on an explicit run (button) or when auto-run is on.
# Otherwise re-render the last stored result, so changing a setting does not
# silently trigger a new forecast.
if run or auto_run:
target_idx = table.names.index(target_name)
sel_names = [target_name]
sel_values = table.values[[target_idx]]
required_cov_len = max(
table.length,
prediction_start + prediction_length if cov_mode == "future" else prediction_start,
)
# --- Generated seasonal / holiday covariates (temporarily disabled) -----
# try:
# seasonal_cov_names, seasonal_cov_values = core.seasonal_covariates(
# seasonal_pattern_labels, required_cov_len, time_values=time_values,
# country=holiday_country,
# )
# except Exception as exc:
# st.error(f"Could not generate seasonal covariates: {exc}")
# st.stop()
# all_cov_names = [*cov_names, *seasonal_cov_names]
# -----------------------------------------------------------------------
all_cov_names = list(cov_names)
use_cov = bool(all_cov_names)
cov_parts = []
if cov_names:
if cov_mode == "future" and table.length < prediction_start + prediction_length:
st.error(
"Selected data covariates do not extend through the forecast horizon. "
"Choose an earlier forecast start, or switch covariates to history-only."
)
st.stop()
cov_idx = [table.names.index(n) for n in cov_names]
cov_parts.append(table.values[cov_idx])
# Generated seasonal covariates temporarily disabled (see above).
# if len(seasonal_cov_values):
# cov_parts.append(seasonal_cov_values)
cov_values = np.vstack(cov_parts).astype(np.float32) if cov_parts else None
try:
with st.spinner("Forecasting with TiRex-2..."):
result = cached_forecast(
sel_values, tuple(sel_names), prediction_length,
tta_diff, tta_flip, model, ctx_len, prediction_start,
cov_values, tuple(all_cov_names), cov_mode,
)
baseline_result = None
if use_cov:
baseline_result = cached_forecast(
sel_values, tuple(sel_names), prediction_length,
tta_diff, tta_flip, model, ctx_len, prediction_start,
None, (), "future",
)
except Exception as exc:
st.error(f"Forecast failed: {exc}")
st.stop()
plot_context_len = result.timeseries.past_length
plot_future_len = max(
result.quantiles.shape[-1],
len(result.truth[0]) if result.truth is not None else 0,
result.timeseries.future_length,
)
plot_x_start = (
result.prediction_start - plot_context_len
if result.prediction_start is not None else 0
)
plot_x = plot_x_values(
time_values, start=plot_x_start,
length=plot_context_len + plot_future_len,
)
st.session_state["forecast"] = dict(
signature=(data_label, target_name),
result=result, baseline=baseline_result, target_name=target_name,
prediction_length=prediction_length, all_cov_names=all_cov_names,
cov_mode=cov_mode, use_cov=use_cov, plot_x=plot_x,
plot_context_len=plot_context_len,
)
bundle = st.session_state.get("forecast")
# Drop a stale result if the dataset/target changed since it was computed.
if bundle is not None and bundle.get("signature") != (data_label, target_name):
bundle = None
if bundle is None:
# No forecast yet: always visualize the selected dataset itself, regardless
# of the "Run automatically" toggle, so the chosen series is visible before
# (and without) running a forecast.
target_idx = table.names.index(target_name)
preview_x = plot_x_values(time_values, start=0, length=table.length)
preview_fig = plotting.build_dataset_figure(
preview_x, table.values[target_idx], label=target_name,
)
st.plotly_chart(preview_fig, width="stretch", config={"displaylogo": False})
st.caption(
"Dataset preview - configure the run on the left and press "
"**Run forecast** to generate a forecast."
)
else:
render_forecast(**bundle)
# =========================================================================== GUIDE
with tab_guide:
with open("src/description.md") as fh:
desc = fh.read()
st.markdown(desc)
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