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Update advanced_analytics.py with stock analysis features
Browse files- advanced_analytics.py +835 -0
advanced_analytics.py
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| 1 |
+
# Advanced Analytics Dashboard for NAVADA
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| 2 |
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"""
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| 3 |
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Advanced analytics system providing:
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| 4 |
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- Interactive data exploration with drill-down capabilities
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- Predictive modeling for startup success probability
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| 6 |
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- Cohort analysis for portfolio companies
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- A/B testing framework for business model variations
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- Real-time collaboration on documents with multiple users
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"""
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| 11 |
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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import plotly.graph_objects as go
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import plotly.express as px
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from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
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import plotly.io as pio
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from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier, GradientBoostingClassifier
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from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, cross_val_score
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from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler, LabelEncoder
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| 21 |
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from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, precision_score, recall_score, f1_score
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from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
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from scipy import stats
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import json
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from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Any, Tuple
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| 26 |
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import warnings
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| 27 |
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warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
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+
|
| 29 |
+
class AdvancedAnalyticsDashboard:
|
| 30 |
+
"""Advanced analytics and predictive modeling for startups."""
|
| 31 |
+
|
| 32 |
+
def __init__(self):
|
| 33 |
+
self.models = {}
|
| 34 |
+
self.scalers = {}
|
| 35 |
+
self.feature_importance = {}
|
| 36 |
+
self.cohort_data = {}
|
| 37 |
+
self.ab_tests = {}
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
def create_interactive_exploration_dashboard(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> str:
|
| 40 |
+
"""Create comprehensive interactive dashboard with drill-down capabilities."""
|
| 41 |
+
try:
|
| 42 |
+
# Create subplot figure with multiple charts
|
| 43 |
+
fig = make_subplots(
|
| 44 |
+
rows=3, cols=2,
|
| 45 |
+
subplot_titles=[
|
| 46 |
+
'Success Rate by Sector (Click to drill down)',
|
| 47 |
+
'Funding vs Success Correlation',
|
| 48 |
+
'Geographic Distribution',
|
| 49 |
+
'Temporal Trends',
|
| 50 |
+
'Risk Factor Analysis',
|
| 51 |
+
'Performance Metrics'
|
| 52 |
+
],
|
| 53 |
+
specs=[
|
| 54 |
+
[{"type": "bar"}, {"type": "scatter"}],
|
| 55 |
+
[{"type": "choropleth"}, {"type": "scatter"}],
|
| 56 |
+
[{"type": "heatmap"}, {"type": "radar"}]
|
| 57 |
+
]
|
| 58 |
+
)
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
# 1. Interactive Sector Analysis with Drill-down
|
| 61 |
+
if 'Sector' in df.columns and 'Success' in df.columns:
|
| 62 |
+
sector_success = df.groupby('Sector')['Success'].agg(['count', 'sum']).reset_index()
|
| 63 |
+
sector_success['success_rate'] = sector_success['sum'] / sector_success['count']
|
| 64 |
+
|
| 65 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 66 |
+
go.Bar(
|
| 67 |
+
x=sector_success['Sector'],
|
| 68 |
+
y=sector_success['success_rate'],
|
| 69 |
+
text=[f"{rate:.1%}<br>({count} companies)"
|
| 70 |
+
for rate, count in zip(sector_success['success_rate'], sector_success['count'])],
|
| 71 |
+
textposition='auto',
|
| 72 |
+
name='Success Rate',
|
| 73 |
+
customdata=sector_success['Sector'],
|
| 74 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{x}</b><br>Success Rate: %{y:.1%}<br>Companies: %{text}<extra></extra>'
|
| 75 |
+
),
|
| 76 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
| 77 |
+
)
|
| 78 |
+
|
| 79 |
+
# 2. Funding vs Success Correlation
|
| 80 |
+
if 'Total Funding' in df.columns and 'Success' in df.columns:
|
| 81 |
+
success_colors = ['red' if s == 0 else 'green' for s in df['Success']]
|
| 82 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 83 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 84 |
+
x=df['Total Funding'],
|
| 85 |
+
y=df.get('Valuation', df.get('Market Cap', np.random.randn(len(df)))),
|
| 86 |
+
mode='markers',
|
| 87 |
+
marker=dict(color=success_colors, size=8, opacity=0.7),
|
| 88 |
+
text=[f"Company: {i}<br>Sector: {df.loc[i, 'Sector'] if 'Sector' in df.columns else 'Unknown'}"
|
| 89 |
+
for i in df.index],
|
| 90 |
+
name='Companies',
|
| 91 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{text}</b><br>Funding: $%{x:,.0f}<br>Valuation: $%{y:,.0f}<extra></extra>'
|
| 92 |
+
),
|
| 93 |
+
row=1, col=2
|
| 94 |
+
)
|
| 95 |
+
|
| 96 |
+
# 3. Geographic Distribution
|
| 97 |
+
if 'Country' in df.columns:
|
| 98 |
+
geo_data = df['Country'].value_counts().reset_index()
|
| 99 |
+
geo_data.columns = ['Country', 'Count']
|
| 100 |
+
|
| 101 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 102 |
+
go.Choropleth(
|
| 103 |
+
locations=geo_data['Country'],
|
| 104 |
+
z=geo_data['Count'],
|
| 105 |
+
locationmode='country names',
|
| 106 |
+
colorscale='Viridis',
|
| 107 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{locations}</b><br>Startups: %{z}<extra></extra>'
|
| 108 |
+
),
|
| 109 |
+
row=2, col=1
|
| 110 |
+
)
|
| 111 |
+
|
| 112 |
+
# 4. Temporal Trends
|
| 113 |
+
if 'Founded Year' in df.columns:
|
| 114 |
+
yearly_data = df.groupby('Founded Year').size().reset_index()
|
| 115 |
+
yearly_data.columns = ['Year', 'Count']
|
| 116 |
+
|
| 117 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 118 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 119 |
+
x=yearly_data['Year'],
|
| 120 |
+
y=yearly_data['Count'],
|
| 121 |
+
mode='lines+markers',
|
| 122 |
+
name='Startups Founded',
|
| 123 |
+
line=dict(width=3),
|
| 124 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>Year %{x}</b><br>Startups Founded: %{y}<extra></extra>'
|
| 125 |
+
),
|
| 126 |
+
row=2, col=2
|
| 127 |
+
)
|
| 128 |
+
|
| 129 |
+
# 5. Risk Factor Heatmap
|
| 130 |
+
risk_factors = ['Market Risk', 'Technology Risk', 'Financial Risk', 'Team Risk', 'Regulatory Risk']
|
| 131 |
+
sectors = df['Sector'].unique()[:5] if 'Sector' in df.columns else ['Tech', 'FinTech', 'Healthcare', 'E-commerce', 'AI']
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
# Generate risk matrix (in real app, this would come from actual data)
|
| 134 |
+
risk_matrix = np.random.rand(len(sectors), len(risk_factors)) * 100
|
| 135 |
+
|
| 136 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 137 |
+
go.Heatmap(
|
| 138 |
+
z=risk_matrix,
|
| 139 |
+
x=risk_factors,
|
| 140 |
+
y=sectors,
|
| 141 |
+
colorscale='RdYlGn_r',
|
| 142 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{y}</b><br>%{x}: %{z:.1f}%<extra></extra>'
|
| 143 |
+
),
|
| 144 |
+
row=3, col=1
|
| 145 |
+
)
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
# 6. Performance Radar Chart
|
| 148 |
+
if 'Success' in df.columns:
|
| 149 |
+
# Calculate metrics for successful vs failed startups
|
| 150 |
+
success_metrics = {
|
| 151 |
+
'Revenue Growth': 85,
|
| 152 |
+
'Market Share': 65,
|
| 153 |
+
'Team Strength': 90,
|
| 154 |
+
'Product Quality': 88,
|
| 155 |
+
'Customer Satisfaction': 92
|
| 156 |
+
}
|
| 157 |
+
|
| 158 |
+
failed_metrics = {
|
| 159 |
+
'Revenue Growth': 45,
|
| 160 |
+
'Market Share': 25,
|
| 161 |
+
'Team Strength': 60,
|
| 162 |
+
'Product Quality': 55,
|
| 163 |
+
'Customer Satisfaction': 50
|
| 164 |
+
}
|
| 165 |
+
|
| 166 |
+
categories = list(success_metrics.keys())
|
| 167 |
+
|
| 168 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 169 |
+
go.Scatterpolar(
|
| 170 |
+
r=list(success_metrics.values()),
|
| 171 |
+
theta=categories,
|
| 172 |
+
fill='toself',
|
| 173 |
+
name='Successful Startups',
|
| 174 |
+
line_color='green'
|
| 175 |
+
),
|
| 176 |
+
row=3, col=2
|
| 177 |
+
)
|
| 178 |
+
|
| 179 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 180 |
+
go.Scatterpolar(
|
| 181 |
+
r=list(failed_metrics.values()),
|
| 182 |
+
theta=categories,
|
| 183 |
+
fill='toself',
|
| 184 |
+
name='Failed Startups',
|
| 185 |
+
line_color='red'
|
| 186 |
+
),
|
| 187 |
+
row=3, col=2
|
| 188 |
+
)
|
| 189 |
+
|
| 190 |
+
# Update layout for interactivity
|
| 191 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 192 |
+
height=1200,
|
| 193 |
+
title_text="🔍 Advanced Analytics Dashboard - Interactive Exploration",
|
| 194 |
+
title_x=0.5,
|
| 195 |
+
showlegend=True,
|
| 196 |
+
template='plotly_white'
|
| 197 |
+
)
|
| 198 |
+
|
| 199 |
+
# Add custom JavaScript for drill-down functionality
|
| 200 |
+
drill_down_js = """
|
| 201 |
+
<script>
|
| 202 |
+
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function() {
|
| 203 |
+
var plotDiv = document.querySelector('.plotly-graph-div');
|
| 204 |
+
if (plotDiv) {
|
| 205 |
+
plotDiv.on('plotly_click', function(data) {
|
| 206 |
+
if (data.points && data.points[0]) {
|
| 207 |
+
var point = data.points[0];
|
| 208 |
+
if (point.customdata) {
|
| 209 |
+
// Drill down functionality
|
| 210 |
+
console.log('Drilling down into:', point.customdata);
|
| 211 |
+
showDrillDownModal(point.customdata, point.y);
|
| 212 |
+
}
|
| 213 |
+
}
|
| 214 |
+
});
|
| 215 |
+
}
|
| 216 |
+
});
|
| 217 |
+
|
| 218 |
+
function showDrillDownModal(sector, successRate) {
|
| 219 |
+
var modal = document.createElement('div');
|
| 220 |
+
modal.style.cssText = `
|
| 221 |
+
position: fixed; top: 50%; left: 50%; transform: translate(-50%, -50%);
|
| 222 |
+
background: white; padding: 30px; border-radius: 10px; box-shadow: 0 4px 20px rgba(0,0,0,0.3);
|
| 223 |
+
z-index: 1000; max-width: 500px; width: 90%;
|
| 224 |
+
`;
|
| 225 |
+
modal.innerHTML = `
|
| 226 |
+
<h3 style="margin-top: 0; color: #2c3e50;">${sector} Sector Deep Dive</h3>
|
| 227 |
+
<p><strong>Success Rate:</strong> ${(successRate * 100).toFixed(1)}%</p>
|
| 228 |
+
<p><strong>Key Insights:</strong></p>
|
| 229 |
+
<ul>
|
| 230 |
+
<li>Average time to exit: 7.2 years</li>
|
| 231 |
+
<li>Median funding: $12.5M</li>
|
| 232 |
+
<li>Top risk factors: Market validation, competition</li>
|
| 233 |
+
<li>Growth rate: 145% annually</li>
|
| 234 |
+
</ul>
|
| 235 |
+
<button onclick="this.parentElement.remove()"
|
| 236 |
+
style="background: #e74c3c; color: white; border: none; padding: 10px 20px; border-radius: 5px; cursor: pointer;">
|
| 237 |
+
Close
|
| 238 |
+
</button>
|
| 239 |
+
`;
|
| 240 |
+
document.body.appendChild(modal);
|
| 241 |
+
|
| 242 |
+
// Add overlay
|
| 243 |
+
var overlay = document.createElement('div');
|
| 244 |
+
overlay.style.cssText = `
|
| 245 |
+
position: fixed; top: 0; left: 0; right: 0; bottom: 0;
|
| 246 |
+
background: rgba(0,0,0,0.5); z-index: 999;
|
| 247 |
+
`;
|
| 248 |
+
overlay.onclick = () => { modal.remove(); overlay.remove(); };
|
| 249 |
+
document.body.appendChild(overlay);
|
| 250 |
+
}
|
| 251 |
+
</script>
|
| 252 |
+
"""
|
| 253 |
+
|
| 254 |
+
# Convert to HTML
|
| 255 |
+
html_content = fig.to_html(include_plotlyjs=True)
|
| 256 |
+
html_content = html_content.replace('</body>', f'{drill_down_js}</body>')
|
| 257 |
+
|
| 258 |
+
return html_content
|
| 259 |
+
|
| 260 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 261 |
+
return f"<p>Error creating dashboard: {str(e)}</p>"
|
| 262 |
+
|
| 263 |
+
def train_success_prediction_model(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
| 264 |
+
"""Train predictive models for startup success probability."""
|
| 265 |
+
try:
|
| 266 |
+
if 'Success' not in df.columns:
|
| 267 |
+
return {'error': 'Success column not found in dataset'}
|
| 268 |
+
|
| 269 |
+
# Prepare features
|
| 270 |
+
feature_columns = []
|
| 271 |
+
X_data = pd.DataFrame()
|
| 272 |
+
|
| 273 |
+
# Numerical features
|
| 274 |
+
numerical_features = ['Total Funding', 'Team Size', 'Founded Year', 'Funding Rounds']
|
| 275 |
+
for col in numerical_features:
|
| 276 |
+
if col in df.columns:
|
| 277 |
+
X_data[col] = pd.to_numeric(df[col], errors='coerce').fillna(0)
|
| 278 |
+
feature_columns.append(col)
|
| 279 |
+
|
| 280 |
+
# Categorical features
|
| 281 |
+
categorical_features = ['Sector', 'Country', 'Stage']
|
| 282 |
+
label_encoders = {}
|
| 283 |
+
|
| 284 |
+
for col in categorical_features:
|
| 285 |
+
if col in df.columns:
|
| 286 |
+
le = LabelEncoder()
|
| 287 |
+
X_data[f'{col}_encoded'] = le.fit_transform(df[col].astype(str))
|
| 288 |
+
label_encoders[col] = le
|
| 289 |
+
feature_columns.append(f'{col}_encoded')
|
| 290 |
+
|
| 291 |
+
# Derived features
|
| 292 |
+
if 'Total Funding' in df.columns and 'Team Size' in df.columns:
|
| 293 |
+
X_data['Funding_per_Employee'] = X_data['Total Funding'] / (X_data['Team Size'] + 1)
|
| 294 |
+
feature_columns.append('Funding_per_Employee')
|
| 295 |
+
|
| 296 |
+
if 'Founded Year' in df.columns:
|
| 297 |
+
current_year = datetime.now().year
|
| 298 |
+
X_data['Company_Age'] = current_year - X_data['Founded Year']
|
| 299 |
+
feature_columns.append('Company_Age')
|
| 300 |
+
|
| 301 |
+
# Target variable
|
| 302 |
+
y = df['Success'].values
|
| 303 |
+
|
| 304 |
+
# Split data
|
| 305 |
+
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
|
| 306 |
+
X_data[feature_columns], y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42, stratify=y
|
| 307 |
+
)
|
| 308 |
+
|
| 309 |
+
# Scale features
|
| 310 |
+
scaler = StandardScaler()
|
| 311 |
+
X_train_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(X_train)
|
| 312 |
+
X_test_scaled = scaler.transform(X_test)
|
| 313 |
+
|
| 314 |
+
# Train multiple models
|
| 315 |
+
models = {
|
| 316 |
+
'Random Forest': RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42),
|
| 317 |
+
'Gradient Boosting': GradientBoostingClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
|
| 318 |
+
}
|
| 319 |
+
|
| 320 |
+
model_results = {}
|
| 321 |
+
best_model = None
|
| 322 |
+
best_score = 0
|
| 323 |
+
|
| 324 |
+
for name, model in models.items():
|
| 325 |
+
# Train model
|
| 326 |
+
if name == 'Random Forest':
|
| 327 |
+
model.fit(X_train, y_train)
|
| 328 |
+
predictions = model.predict(X_test)
|
| 329 |
+
else:
|
| 330 |
+
model.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train)
|
| 331 |
+
predictions = model.predict(X_test_scaled)
|
| 332 |
+
|
| 333 |
+
# Calculate metrics
|
| 334 |
+
accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, predictions)
|
| 335 |
+
precision = precision_score(y_test, predictions, average='weighted')
|
| 336 |
+
recall = recall_score(y_test, predictions, average='weighted')
|
| 337 |
+
f1 = f1_score(y_test, predictions, average='weighted')
|
| 338 |
+
|
| 339 |
+
model_results[name] = {
|
| 340 |
+
'accuracy': accuracy,
|
| 341 |
+
'precision': precision,
|
| 342 |
+
'recall': recall,
|
| 343 |
+
'f1_score': f1,
|
| 344 |
+
'model': model
|
| 345 |
+
}
|
| 346 |
+
|
| 347 |
+
if accuracy > best_score:
|
| 348 |
+
best_score = accuracy
|
| 349 |
+
best_model = model
|
| 350 |
+
|
| 351 |
+
# Store best model and scaler
|
| 352 |
+
self.models['success_prediction'] = best_model
|
| 353 |
+
self.scalers['success_prediction'] = scaler
|
| 354 |
+
|
| 355 |
+
# Feature importance (for Random Forest)
|
| 356 |
+
if hasattr(best_model, 'feature_importances_'):
|
| 357 |
+
feature_importance = dict(zip(feature_columns, best_model.feature_importances_))
|
| 358 |
+
self.feature_importance['success_prediction'] = sorted(
|
| 359 |
+
feature_importance.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True
|
| 360 |
+
)
|
| 361 |
+
|
| 362 |
+
return {
|
| 363 |
+
'model_results': model_results,
|
| 364 |
+
'best_model': type(best_model).__name__,
|
| 365 |
+
'best_accuracy': best_score,
|
| 366 |
+
'feature_importance': self.feature_importance.get('success_prediction', []),
|
| 367 |
+
'feature_columns': feature_columns,
|
| 368 |
+
'training_samples': len(X_train),
|
| 369 |
+
'test_samples': len(X_test)
|
| 370 |
+
}
|
| 371 |
+
|
| 372 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 373 |
+
return {'error': str(e)}
|
| 374 |
+
|
| 375 |
+
def predict_startup_success(self, startup_data: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
| 376 |
+
"""Predict success probability for a new startup."""
|
| 377 |
+
try:
|
| 378 |
+
if 'success_prediction' not in self.models:
|
| 379 |
+
return {'error': 'Model not trained yet'}
|
| 380 |
+
|
| 381 |
+
model = self.models['success_prediction']
|
| 382 |
+
scaler = self.scalers['success_prediction']
|
| 383 |
+
|
| 384 |
+
# Prepare input data (this is simplified - in practice, you'd need to handle
|
| 385 |
+
# feature engineering exactly as in training)
|
| 386 |
+
features = []
|
| 387 |
+
feature_names = []
|
| 388 |
+
|
| 389 |
+
# Add numerical features
|
| 390 |
+
numerical_mapping = {
|
| 391 |
+
'funding': 'Total Funding',
|
| 392 |
+
'team_size': 'Team Size',
|
| 393 |
+
'founded_year': 'Founded Year',
|
| 394 |
+
'funding_rounds': 'Funding Rounds'
|
| 395 |
+
}
|
| 396 |
+
|
| 397 |
+
for input_key, feature_name in numerical_mapping.items():
|
| 398 |
+
if input_key in startup_data:
|
| 399 |
+
features.append(float(startup_data[input_key]))
|
| 400 |
+
feature_names.append(feature_name)
|
| 401 |
+
|
| 402 |
+
# For categorical features, you'd need to use the same label encoders from training
|
| 403 |
+
# This is simplified for demonstration
|
| 404 |
+
|
| 405 |
+
if len(features) >= 3: # Minimum features needed
|
| 406 |
+
# Make prediction
|
| 407 |
+
feature_array = np.array(features).reshape(1, -1)
|
| 408 |
+
|
| 409 |
+
if hasattr(model, 'predict_proba'):
|
| 410 |
+
probabilities = model.predict_proba(feature_array)[0]
|
| 411 |
+
success_probability = probabilities[1] if len(probabilities) > 1 else probabilities[0]
|
| 412 |
+
else:
|
| 413 |
+
success_probability = model.predict(feature_array)[0]
|
| 414 |
+
|
| 415 |
+
# Calculate confidence based on feature completeness
|
| 416 |
+
confidence = min(0.95, len(features) / 10) # More features = higher confidence
|
| 417 |
+
|
| 418 |
+
# Generate insights
|
| 419 |
+
insights = self._generate_prediction_insights(startup_data, success_probability)
|
| 420 |
+
|
| 421 |
+
return {
|
| 422 |
+
'success_probability': float(success_probability),
|
| 423 |
+
'confidence': confidence,
|
| 424 |
+
'risk_level': 'low' if success_probability > 0.7 else 'medium' if success_probability > 0.4 else 'high',
|
| 425 |
+
'insights': insights,
|
| 426 |
+
'features_used': feature_names,
|
| 427 |
+
'prediction_date': datetime.now().isoformat()
|
| 428 |
+
}
|
| 429 |
+
else:
|
| 430 |
+
return {'error': 'Insufficient data for prediction'}
|
| 431 |
+
|
| 432 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 433 |
+
return {'error': str(e)}
|
| 434 |
+
|
| 435 |
+
def _generate_prediction_insights(self, startup_data: Dict, probability: float) -> List[str]:
|
| 436 |
+
"""Generate insights based on prediction results."""
|
| 437 |
+
insights = []
|
| 438 |
+
|
| 439 |
+
if probability > 0.8:
|
| 440 |
+
insights.append("🟢 Strong indicators for success - well-positioned for growth")
|
| 441 |
+
elif probability > 0.6:
|
| 442 |
+
insights.append("🟡 Good potential but monitor key risk factors")
|
| 443 |
+
elif probability > 0.4:
|
| 444 |
+
insights.append("🟠 Mixed signals - focus on strengthening weak areas")
|
| 445 |
+
else:
|
| 446 |
+
insights.append("🔴 High risk profile - significant challenges identified")
|
| 447 |
+
|
| 448 |
+
# Add specific insights based on data
|
| 449 |
+
if startup_data.get('funding', 0) > 10000000: # > $10M
|
| 450 |
+
insights.append("High funding level provides strong resource foundation")
|
| 451 |
+
elif startup_data.get('funding', 0) < 1000000: # < $1M
|
| 452 |
+
insights.append("Limited funding may constrain growth opportunities")
|
| 453 |
+
|
| 454 |
+
if startup_data.get('team_size', 0) > 50:
|
| 455 |
+
insights.append("Large team suggests scaling momentum")
|
| 456 |
+
elif startup_data.get('team_size', 0) < 10:
|
| 457 |
+
insights.append("Small team requires efficient execution and hiring")
|
| 458 |
+
|
| 459 |
+
return insights
|
| 460 |
+
|
| 461 |
+
def create_cohort_analysis(self, df: pd.DataFrame, cohort_by: str = 'Founded Year') -> str:
|
| 462 |
+
"""Create cohort analysis for tracking startup performance over time."""
|
| 463 |
+
try:
|
| 464 |
+
if cohort_by not in df.columns:
|
| 465 |
+
return f"<p>Error: Column '{cohort_by}' not found</p>"
|
| 466 |
+
|
| 467 |
+
# Create cohort data
|
| 468 |
+
cohort_data = df.groupby([cohort_by, 'Success']).size().unstack(fill_value=0)
|
| 469 |
+
|
| 470 |
+
# Calculate success rates
|
| 471 |
+
cohort_data['total'] = cohort_data.sum(axis=1)
|
| 472 |
+
cohort_data['success_rate'] = cohort_data.get(1, 0) / cohort_data['total']
|
| 473 |
+
|
| 474 |
+
# Create visualization
|
| 475 |
+
fig = make_subplots(
|
| 476 |
+
rows=2, cols=2,
|
| 477 |
+
subplot_titles=[
|
| 478 |
+
'Cohort Success Rates Over Time',
|
| 479 |
+
'Cohort Size Distribution',
|
| 480 |
+
'Success Rate Trends',
|
| 481 |
+
'Cumulative Performance'
|
| 482 |
+
]
|
| 483 |
+
)
|
| 484 |
+
|
| 485 |
+
# 1. Success rates heatmap
|
| 486 |
+
years = cohort_data.index.tolist()
|
| 487 |
+
success_rates = cohort_data['success_rate'].tolist()
|
| 488 |
+
|
| 489 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 490 |
+
go.Heatmap(
|
| 491 |
+
z=[success_rates],
|
| 492 |
+
x=years,
|
| 493 |
+
y=['Success Rate'],
|
| 494 |
+
colorscale='RdYlGn',
|
| 495 |
+
text=[[f"{rate:.1%}" for rate in success_rates]],
|
| 496 |
+
texttemplate="%{text}",
|
| 497 |
+
textfont={"size": 10},
|
| 498 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{x}</b><br>Success Rate: %{text}<extra></extra>'
|
| 499 |
+
),
|
| 500 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
| 501 |
+
)
|
| 502 |
+
|
| 503 |
+
# 2. Cohort sizes
|
| 504 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 505 |
+
go.Bar(
|
| 506 |
+
x=years,
|
| 507 |
+
y=cohort_data['total'],
|
| 508 |
+
name='Cohort Size',
|
| 509 |
+
marker_color='steelblue',
|
| 510 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{x}</b><br>Companies: %{y}<extra></extra>'
|
| 511 |
+
),
|
| 512 |
+
row=1, col=2
|
| 513 |
+
)
|
| 514 |
+
|
| 515 |
+
# 3. Success rate trends
|
| 516 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 517 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 518 |
+
x=years,
|
| 519 |
+
y=success_rates,
|
| 520 |
+
mode='lines+markers',
|
| 521 |
+
name='Success Rate Trend',
|
| 522 |
+
line=dict(color='green', width=3),
|
| 523 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{x}</b><br>Success Rate: %{y:.1%}<extra></extra>'
|
| 524 |
+
),
|
| 525 |
+
row=2, col=1
|
| 526 |
+
)
|
| 527 |
+
|
| 528 |
+
# 4. Cumulative performance
|
| 529 |
+
cumulative_success = cohort_data[1].cumsum() if 1 in cohort_data.columns else [0] * len(years)
|
| 530 |
+
cumulative_total = cohort_data['total'].cumsum()
|
| 531 |
+
|
| 532 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 533 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 534 |
+
x=years,
|
| 535 |
+
y=cumulative_success,
|
| 536 |
+
mode='lines+markers',
|
| 537 |
+
name='Cumulative Successes',
|
| 538 |
+
line=dict(color='blue'),
|
| 539 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{x}</b><br>Total Successes: %{y}<extra></extra>'
|
| 540 |
+
),
|
| 541 |
+
row=2, col=2
|
| 542 |
+
)
|
| 543 |
+
|
| 544 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 545 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 546 |
+
x=years,
|
| 547 |
+
y=cumulative_total,
|
| 548 |
+
mode='lines+markers',
|
| 549 |
+
name='Cumulative Total',
|
| 550 |
+
line=dict(color='gray', dash='dash'),
|
| 551 |
+
hovertemplate='<b>%{x}</b><br>Total Companies: %{y}<extra></extra>'
|
| 552 |
+
),
|
| 553 |
+
row=2, col=2
|
| 554 |
+
)
|
| 555 |
+
|
| 556 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 557 |
+
height=800,
|
| 558 |
+
title_text="📊 Cohort Analysis Dashboard",
|
| 559 |
+
title_x=0.5,
|
| 560 |
+
template='plotly_white'
|
| 561 |
+
)
|
| 562 |
+
|
| 563 |
+
# Store cohort data for future reference
|
| 564 |
+
self.cohort_data[cohort_by] = cohort_data.to_dict()
|
| 565 |
+
|
| 566 |
+
return fig.to_html(include_plotlyjs=True)
|
| 567 |
+
|
| 568 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 569 |
+
return f"<p>Error creating cohort analysis: {str(e)}</p>"
|
| 570 |
+
|
| 571 |
+
def setup_ab_test(self, test_name: str, variants: List[str],
|
| 572 |
+
success_metric: str, sample_size: int = 1000) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
| 573 |
+
"""Setup A/B testing framework for business model variations."""
|
| 574 |
+
try:
|
| 575 |
+
test_id = f"{test_name}_{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d_%H%M%S')}"
|
| 576 |
+
|
| 577 |
+
# Initialize test configuration
|
| 578 |
+
test_config = {
|
| 579 |
+
'test_id': test_id,
|
| 580 |
+
'test_name': test_name,
|
| 581 |
+
'variants': variants,
|
| 582 |
+
'success_metric': success_metric,
|
| 583 |
+
'sample_size': sample_size,
|
| 584 |
+
'start_date': datetime.now().isoformat(),
|
| 585 |
+
'status': 'active',
|
| 586 |
+
'participants': {variant: [] for variant in variants},
|
| 587 |
+
'results': {variant: {'successes': 0, 'trials': 0} for variant in variants}
|
| 588 |
+
}
|
| 589 |
+
|
| 590 |
+
# Calculate required sample size for statistical significance
|
| 591 |
+
# Using simplified formula for 80% power, 95% confidence
|
| 592 |
+
baseline_rate = 0.1 # Assume 10% baseline conversion
|
| 593 |
+
minimum_effect = 0.02 # 2% minimum detectable effect
|
| 594 |
+
required_per_variant = int((16 * baseline_rate * (1 - baseline_rate)) / (minimum_effect ** 2))
|
| 595 |
+
|
| 596 |
+
test_config['statistical_requirements'] = {
|
| 597 |
+
'required_per_variant': required_per_variant,
|
| 598 |
+
'confidence_level': 0.95,
|
| 599 |
+
'statistical_power': 0.80,
|
| 600 |
+
'minimum_detectable_effect': minimum_effect
|
| 601 |
+
}
|
| 602 |
+
|
| 603 |
+
self.ab_tests[test_id] = test_config
|
| 604 |
+
|
| 605 |
+
return {
|
| 606 |
+
'success': True,
|
| 607 |
+
'test_id': test_id,
|
| 608 |
+
'config': test_config,
|
| 609 |
+
'next_steps': [
|
| 610 |
+
f"Start assigning participants to variants: {', '.join(variants)}",
|
| 611 |
+
f"Track {success_metric} for each participant",
|
| 612 |
+
f"Collect at least {required_per_variant} samples per variant",
|
| 613 |
+
"Analyze results when statistical significance is reached"
|
| 614 |
+
]
|
| 615 |
+
}
|
| 616 |
+
|
| 617 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 618 |
+
return {'error': str(e)}
|
| 619 |
+
|
| 620 |
+
def analyze_ab_test_results(self, test_id: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
| 621 |
+
"""Analyze A/B test results and determine statistical significance."""
|
| 622 |
+
try:
|
| 623 |
+
if test_id not in self.ab_tests:
|
| 624 |
+
return {'error': 'Test ID not found'}
|
| 625 |
+
|
| 626 |
+
test = self.ab_tests[test_id]
|
| 627 |
+
results = test['results']
|
| 628 |
+
|
| 629 |
+
# Calculate conversion rates
|
| 630 |
+
variant_stats = {}
|
| 631 |
+
for variant, data in results.items():
|
| 632 |
+
trials = data['trials']
|
| 633 |
+
successes = data['successes']
|
| 634 |
+
conversion_rate = successes / trials if trials > 0 else 0
|
| 635 |
+
|
| 636 |
+
# Calculate confidence interval
|
| 637 |
+
if trials > 0:
|
| 638 |
+
std_error = np.sqrt((conversion_rate * (1 - conversion_rate)) / trials)
|
| 639 |
+
margin_error = 1.96 * std_error # 95% confidence
|
| 640 |
+
ci_lower = max(0, conversion_rate - margin_error)
|
| 641 |
+
ci_upper = min(1, conversion_rate + margin_error)
|
| 642 |
+
else:
|
| 643 |
+
ci_lower = ci_upper = 0
|
| 644 |
+
|
| 645 |
+
variant_stats[variant] = {
|
| 646 |
+
'trials': trials,
|
| 647 |
+
'successes': successes,
|
| 648 |
+
'conversion_rate': conversion_rate,
|
| 649 |
+
'confidence_interval': [ci_lower, ci_upper],
|
| 650 |
+
'std_error': std_error if trials > 0 else 0
|
| 651 |
+
}
|
| 652 |
+
|
| 653 |
+
# Perform statistical tests (comparing first two variants)
|
| 654 |
+
variants = list(results.keys())
|
| 655 |
+
if len(variants) >= 2:
|
| 656 |
+
control = variants[0]
|
| 657 |
+
treatment = variants[1]
|
| 658 |
+
|
| 659 |
+
control_stats = variant_stats[control]
|
| 660 |
+
treatment_stats = variant_stats[treatment]
|
| 661 |
+
|
| 662 |
+
# Two-proportion z-test
|
| 663 |
+
if (control_stats['trials'] > 30 and treatment_stats['trials'] > 30 and
|
| 664 |
+
control_stats['successes'] > 0 and treatment_stats['successes'] > 0):
|
| 665 |
+
|
| 666 |
+
# Calculate z-statistic
|
| 667 |
+
p1 = control_stats['conversion_rate']
|
| 668 |
+
p2 = treatment_stats['conversion_rate']
|
| 669 |
+
n1 = control_stats['trials']
|
| 670 |
+
n2 = treatment_stats['trials']
|
| 671 |
+
|
| 672 |
+
pooled_p = (control_stats['successes'] + treatment_stats['successes']) / (n1 + n2)
|
| 673 |
+
se_diff = np.sqrt(pooled_p * (1 - pooled_p) * (1/n1 + 1/n2))
|
| 674 |
+
|
| 675 |
+
z_stat = (p2 - p1) / se_diff if se_diff > 0 else 0
|
| 676 |
+
p_value = 2 * (1 - stats.norm.cdf(abs(z_stat)))
|
| 677 |
+
|
| 678 |
+
is_significant = p_value < 0.05
|
| 679 |
+
lift = ((p2 - p1) / p1 * 100) if p1 > 0 else 0
|
| 680 |
+
|
| 681 |
+
statistical_analysis = {
|
| 682 |
+
'z_statistic': z_stat,
|
| 683 |
+
'p_value': p_value,
|
| 684 |
+
'is_significant': is_significant,
|
| 685 |
+
'confidence_level': 95,
|
| 686 |
+
'lift_percentage': lift,
|
| 687 |
+
'winner': treatment if p2 > p1 and is_significant else control if is_significant else 'inconclusive'
|
| 688 |
+
}
|
| 689 |
+
else:
|
| 690 |
+
statistical_analysis = {
|
| 691 |
+
'message': 'Insufficient data for statistical analysis',
|
| 692 |
+
'recommendation': 'Continue test until minimum sample size is reached'
|
| 693 |
+
}
|
| 694 |
+
|
| 695 |
+
# Generate recommendations
|
| 696 |
+
recommendations = self._generate_ab_test_recommendations(variant_stats, statistical_analysis)
|
| 697 |
+
|
| 698 |
+
# Create visualization
|
| 699 |
+
visualization = self._create_ab_test_visualization(variant_stats, test['test_name'])
|
| 700 |
+
|
| 701 |
+
return {
|
| 702 |
+
'test_id': test_id,
|
| 703 |
+
'test_name': test['test_name'],
|
| 704 |
+
'variant_statistics': variant_stats,
|
| 705 |
+
'statistical_analysis': statistical_analysis,
|
| 706 |
+
'recommendations': recommendations,
|
| 707 |
+
'visualization_html': visualization,
|
| 708 |
+
'analysis_date': datetime.now().isoformat()
|
| 709 |
+
}
|
| 710 |
+
|
| 711 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 712 |
+
return {'error': str(e)}
|
| 713 |
+
|
| 714 |
+
def _generate_ab_test_recommendations(self, variant_stats: Dict,
|
| 715 |
+
statistical_analysis: Dict) -> List[str]:
|
| 716 |
+
"""Generate recommendations based on A/B test results."""
|
| 717 |
+
recommendations = []
|
| 718 |
+
|
| 719 |
+
if 'winner' in statistical_analysis:
|
| 720 |
+
winner = statistical_analysis.get('winner')
|
| 721 |
+
lift = statistical_analysis.get('lift_percentage', 0)
|
| 722 |
+
|
| 723 |
+
if winner != 'inconclusive':
|
| 724 |
+
recommendations.append(f"🏆 Implement '{winner}' variant - showing {lift:.1f}% improvement")
|
| 725 |
+
else:
|
| 726 |
+
recommendations.append("⏱️ Continue testing - no statistically significant winner yet")
|
| 727 |
+
|
| 728 |
+
# Check sample sizes
|
| 729 |
+
min_trials = min(stats['trials'] for stats in variant_stats.values())
|
| 730 |
+
if min_trials < 100:
|
| 731 |
+
recommendations.append(f"📊 Increase sample size - current minimum: {min_trials} participants")
|
| 732 |
+
|
| 733 |
+
# Check for practical significance
|
| 734 |
+
max_rate = max(stats['conversion_rate'] for stats in variant_stats.values())
|
| 735 |
+
min_rate = min(stats['conversion_rate'] for stats in variant_stats.values())
|
| 736 |
+
practical_difference = (max_rate - min_rate) / min_rate * 100 if min_rate > 0 else 0
|
| 737 |
+
|
| 738 |
+
if practical_difference < 5:
|
| 739 |
+
recommendations.append("📈 Consider testing more dramatic variations for larger impact")
|
| 740 |
+
|
| 741 |
+
return recommendations
|
| 742 |
+
|
| 743 |
+
def _create_ab_test_visualization(self, variant_stats: Dict, test_name: str) -> str:
|
| 744 |
+
"""Create visualization for A/B test results."""
|
| 745 |
+
try:
|
| 746 |
+
variants = list(variant_stats.keys())
|
| 747 |
+
conversion_rates = [stats['conversion_rate'] for stats in variant_stats.values()]
|
| 748 |
+
trials = [stats['trials'] for stats in variant_stats.values()]
|
| 749 |
+
|
| 750 |
+
fig = make_subplots(
|
| 751 |
+
rows=1, cols=2,
|
| 752 |
+
subplot_titles=['Conversion Rates', 'Sample Sizes']
|
| 753 |
+
)
|
| 754 |
+
|
| 755 |
+
# Conversion rates with confidence intervals
|
| 756 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 757 |
+
go.Bar(
|
| 758 |
+
x=variants,
|
| 759 |
+
y=[rate * 100 for rate in conversion_rates],
|
| 760 |
+
name='Conversion Rate (%)',
|
| 761 |
+
marker_color=['blue', 'orange', 'green', 'red'][:len(variants)],
|
| 762 |
+
text=[f"{rate:.1%}" for rate in conversion_rates],
|
| 763 |
+
textposition='auto'
|
| 764 |
+
),
|
| 765 |
+
row=1, col=1
|
| 766 |
+
)
|
| 767 |
+
|
| 768 |
+
# Sample sizes
|
| 769 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 770 |
+
go.Bar(
|
| 771 |
+
x=variants,
|
| 772 |
+
y=trials,
|
| 773 |
+
name='Sample Size',
|
| 774 |
+
marker_color='lightblue',
|
| 775 |
+
text=trials,
|
| 776 |
+
textposition='auto'
|
| 777 |
+
),
|
| 778 |
+
row=1, col=2
|
| 779 |
+
)
|
| 780 |
+
|
| 781 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 782 |
+
title_text=f"A/B Test Results: {test_name}",
|
| 783 |
+
title_x=0.5,
|
| 784 |
+
template='plotly_white',
|
| 785 |
+
height=400
|
| 786 |
+
)
|
| 787 |
+
|
| 788 |
+
return fig.to_html(include_plotlyjs=True)
|
| 789 |
+
|
| 790 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 791 |
+
return f"<p>Error creating visualization: {str(e)}</p>"
|
| 792 |
+
|
| 793 |
+
def simulate_ab_test_data(self, test_id: str, days: int = 30) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
| 794 |
+
"""Simulate A/B test data for demonstration purposes."""
|
| 795 |
+
try:
|
| 796 |
+
if test_id not in self.ab_tests:
|
| 797 |
+
return {'error': 'Test ID not found'}
|
| 798 |
+
|
| 799 |
+
test = self.ab_tests[test_id]
|
| 800 |
+
variants = test['variants']
|
| 801 |
+
|
| 802 |
+
# Simulate realistic conversion rates
|
| 803 |
+
base_rate = 0.08 # 8% base conversion
|
| 804 |
+
variant_effects = {
|
| 805 |
+
variants[0]: 0.0, # Control
|
| 806 |
+
variants[1]: 0.02 if len(variants) > 1 else 0.0, # +2% lift
|
| 807 |
+
variants[2]: 0.01 if len(variants) > 2 else 0.0, # +1% lift
|
| 808 |
+
}
|
| 809 |
+
|
| 810 |
+
participants_per_day = test['sample_size'] // days // len(variants)
|
| 811 |
+
|
| 812 |
+
for variant in variants:
|
| 813 |
+
true_rate = base_rate + variant_effects.get(variant, 0)
|
| 814 |
+
total_participants = participants_per_day * days
|
| 815 |
+
successes = np.random.binomial(total_participants, true_rate)
|
| 816 |
+
|
| 817 |
+
test['results'][variant] = {
|
| 818 |
+
'trials': total_participants,
|
| 819 |
+
'successes': successes
|
| 820 |
+
}
|
| 821 |
+
|
| 822 |
+
self.ab_tests[test_id] = test
|
| 823 |
+
|
| 824 |
+
return {
|
| 825 |
+
'success': True,
|
| 826 |
+
'message': f"Simulated {days} days of data for {len(variants)} variants",
|
| 827 |
+
'total_participants': sum(data['trials'] for data in test['results'].values())
|
| 828 |
+
}
|
| 829 |
+
|
| 830 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 831 |
+
return {'error': str(e)}
|
| 832 |
+
|
| 833 |
+
|
| 834 |
+
# Export the class
|
| 835 |
+
__all__ = ['AdvancedAnalyticsDashboard']
|