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Running
File size: 1,013 Bytes
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"_meta": {
"version": "2.0",
"created": "2026-04-10",
"generated_at": "2026-04-10T19:35:17.183416+00:00",
"source": "scripts/calibration_fit.py (Pool Adjacent Violators + empirical blend)",
"model_version": "ensemble v1 / real_predictions_loader",
"notes": "Rebuilt from real matched predictions (prospective, no look-ahead). Previous 31-game hand-tuned map over-corrected bin 6 0.65->0.35. This fit uses 70% PAV curve + 30% empirical bin rate to borrow strength from neighbouring bins in low-count regions.",
"n_games_used": 104,
"date_range": "2026-03-16 to 2026-04-05",
"brier_before": 0.24246,
"brier_after": 0.23057,
"ece_before": 0.123,
"ece_after": 0.06217
},
"bin_edges": [
0.0,
0.2,
0.4,
0.6,
0.8,
1.0
],
"bin_counts": [
4,
20,
26,
44,
10
],
"raw_centers": [
0.1,
0.3,
0.5,
0.7,
0.9
],
"calibrated_centers": [
0.075,
0.4417,
0.5365,
0.5556,
0.97
]
}
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