feat: multi-island evolution + Codespace runner

- app.py: env-overridable SPACE_ROLE config (6 roles: exploitation, exploration,
extra_trees_specialist, catboost_specialist, neural_specialist, wide_search)
- deploy_island.py: generic deploy to any HF Space with any role
- deploy_s11.py: S11 exploration island deploy script
- .devcontainer/: GitHub Codespace config + evolution runner script
- S12 (extra_trees) + S13 (catboost) deployed on LBJLincoln26 account

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app.py

@@ -1566,21 +1566,56 @@ def _ece(probs, actuals, n_bins=10):
 # EVOLUTION ENGINE
 # ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
 
-POP_SIZE = 60            # Optimal: 60 (proven by 1244 experiments — fewer=faster gens/day)
-N_ISLANDS = 5            # Island model: 5 sub-populations
-ISLAND_SIZE = 12         # 60/5 = 12 per island
-ELITE_SIZE = 6           # Top 10% preserved
-ELITE_PER_ISLAND = 2     # Elites per island (ceil(12*0.1)=2)
-BASE_MUT = 0.09          # Optimal: 0.09 (0.2 destroys population, 0.12 too high)
-MUT_DECAY_RATE = 0.998   # Gentle decay — already near optimum
-MUT_FLOOR = 0.05         # Don't go too low — maintain exploration
-CROSSOVER_RATE = 0.80    # Optimal: 0.80 (0.85-0.95 too much noise)
-TARGET_FEATURES = 63     # Sweet spot: 60-66 range dominates (not 80/115)
+# ── Runtime config (env-overridable for multi-Space island model) ──
+# S10 (primary): exploitation — proven optimal params
+# S11 (secondary): exploration — higher mutation, wider feature search
+import os as _os
+_SPACE_ROLE = _os.environ.get("SPACE_ROLE", "exploitation")  # "exploitation" or "exploration"
+
+_ROLE_CONFIGS = {
+    "exploitation": {  # S10: proven optimal
+        "POP_SIZE": 60, "BASE_MUT": 0.09, "MUT_DECAY_RATE": 0.998, "MUT_FLOOR": 0.05,
+        "CROSSOVER_RATE": 0.80, "TARGET_FEATURES": 63, "TOURNAMENT_SIZE": 7, "DIVERSITY_RESTART": 30,
+    },
+    "exploration": {  # S11: wider search
+        "POP_SIZE": 60, "BASE_MUT": 0.15, "MUT_DECAY_RATE": 0.999, "MUT_FLOOR": 0.08,
+        "CROSSOVER_RATE": 0.70, "TARGET_FEATURES": 80, "TOURNAMENT_SIZE": 5, "DIVERSITY_RESTART": 20,
+    },
+    "extra_trees_specialist": {  # S12: extra_trees focus, tight features
+        "POP_SIZE": 60, "BASE_MUT": 0.08, "MUT_DECAY_RATE": 0.998, "MUT_FLOOR": 0.04,
+        "CROSSOVER_RATE": 0.80, "TARGET_FEATURES": 60, "TOURNAMENT_SIZE": 7, "DIVERSITY_RESTART": 25,
+    },
+    "catboost_specialist": {  # S13: catboost focus, medium exploration
+        "POP_SIZE": 60, "BASE_MUT": 0.10, "MUT_DECAY_RATE": 0.998, "MUT_FLOOR": 0.05,
+        "CROSSOVER_RATE": 0.80, "TARGET_FEATURES": 66, "TOURNAMENT_SIZE": 6, "DIVERSITY_RESTART": 25,
+    },
+    "neural_specialist": {  # S14: neural models (MLP, TabNet, FT-Transformer)
+        "POP_SIZE": 40, "BASE_MUT": 0.12, "MUT_DECAY_RATE": 0.999, "MUT_FLOOR": 0.06,
+        "CROSSOVER_RATE": 0.75, "TARGET_FEATURES": 50, "TOURNAMENT_SIZE": 5, "DIVERSITY_RESTART": 15,
+    },
+    "wide_search": {  # S15: max diversity, wide feature search
+        "POP_SIZE": 60, "BASE_MUT": 0.20, "MUT_DECAY_RATE": 0.999, "MUT_FLOOR": 0.10,
+        "CROSSOVER_RATE": 0.65, "TARGET_FEATURES": 120, "TOURNAMENT_SIZE": 4, "DIVERSITY_RESTART": 15,
+    },
+}
+_cfg = _ROLE_CONFIGS.get(_SPACE_ROLE, _ROLE_CONFIGS["exploitation"])
+POP_SIZE = _cfg["POP_SIZE"]
+BASE_MUT = _cfg["BASE_MUT"]
+MUT_DECAY_RATE = _cfg["MUT_DECAY_RATE"]
+MUT_FLOOR = _cfg["MUT_FLOOR"]
+CROSSOVER_RATE = _cfg["CROSSOVER_RATE"]
+TARGET_FEATURES = _cfg["TARGET_FEATURES"]
+TOURNAMENT_SIZE = _cfg["TOURNAMENT_SIZE"]
+DIVERSITY_RESTART = _cfg["DIVERSITY_RESTART"]
+
+N_ISLANDS = 5
+ISLAND_SIZE = POP_SIZE // N_ISLANDS
+ELITE_SIZE = max(2, POP_SIZE // 10)
+ELITE_PER_ISLAND = max(1, ISLAND_SIZE // 6)
+
 N_SPLITS = 3             # 3-fold walk-forward for reliable Brier estimates
 GENS_PER_CYCLE = 3       # Save every 3 gens
 COOLDOWN = 5             # Minimal cooldown
-TOURNAMENT_SIZE = 7      # Higher pressure with small pop — proven optimal
-DIVERSITY_RESTART = 30   # More patience with small pop
 FAST_EVAL_GAMES = 8000   # More data in fast eval
 FULL_EVAL_TOP = 10       # Full eval for top 10 (out of 60)
 MIGRATION_INTERVAL = 8   # Migration every 8 gens

deploy_island.py

@@ -0,0 +1,101 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Deploy an evolution island to any HF Space.
+
+Usage:
+    source .env.local
+    python3 hf-space/deploy_island.py SPACE_ID ROLE [HF_TOKEN_VAR]
+
+Examples:
+    python3 hf-space/deploy_island.py LBJLincoln26/nba-evo-3 extra_trees_specialist HF_TOKEN_2
+    python3 hf-space/deploy_island.py LBJLincoln26/nba-evo-4 catboost_specialist HF_TOKEN_2
+
+Roles:
+    exploitation       — S10 default: mut=0.09, feat=63 (proven optimal)
+    exploration        — S11 default: mut=0.15, feat=80 (wider search)
+    extra_trees_specialist — extra_trees only, low mut, narrow features
+    catboost_specialist    — catboost focus, medium mut
+    neural_specialist     — neural models only (MLP, TabNet, FT-Transformer)
+    wide_search           — high mut=0.20, feat=120, all model types
+"""
+
+import os, sys
+from pathlib import Path
+from huggingface_hub import HfApi, CommitOperationAdd
+
+LOCAL_DIR = Path(__file__).parent
+SKIP = {"__pycache__", ".pyc", "node_modules", ".git", "deploy.py", "deploy_s11.py", "deploy_island.py"}
+
+
+def main():
+    if len(sys.argv) < 3:
+        print(__doc__)
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    space_id = sys.argv[1]
+    role = sys.argv[2]
+    token_var = sys.argv[3] if len(sys.argv) > 3 else "HF_TOKEN"
+    token = os.environ.get(token_var)
+
+    if not token:
+        print(f"ERROR: {token_var} not set. Run: source .env.local")
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    # Engine parity check
+    root_engine = (LOCAL_DIR.parent / "features" / "engine.py").read_bytes()
+    hf_engine = (LOCAL_DIR / "features" / "engine.py").read_bytes()
+    if root_engine != hf_engine:
+        print("ERROR: features/engine.py diverged!")
+        sys.exit(1)
+    print("Engine parity: OK")
+
+    api = HfApi(token=token)
+    print(f"Deploying island ({role}) to {space_id}...")
+
+    operations = []
+    for fp in LOCAL_DIR.rglob("*"):
+        if fp.is_dir():
+            continue
+        if any(s in str(fp) for s in SKIP):
+            continue
+        rel = fp.relative_to(LOCAL_DIR)
+        print(f"  + {rel}")
+        operations.append(CommitOperationAdd(path_in_repo=str(rel), path_or_fileobj=str(fp)))
+
+    print(f"\nUploading {len(operations)} files...")
+    api.create_commit(
+        repo_id=space_id, repo_type="space", operations=operations,
+        commit_message=f"feat: evolution island ({role})",
+    )
+    print("Upload OK!")
+
+    # Core secrets (DB only — minimal for evolution)
+    secrets = {
+        "DATABASE_URL": os.environ.get("DATABASE_URL", ""),
+        "SUPABASE_URL": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_URL", ""),
+        "SUPABASE_API_KEY": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_API_KEY", ""),
+        "SUPABASE_PASSWORD": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_PASSWORD", ""),
+        "SPACE_ROLE": role,
+    }
+
+    print("\nConfiguring secrets...")
+    for key, value in secrets.items():
+        if value:
+            try:
+                api.add_space_secret(space_id, key, value)
+                print(f"  Set {key}")
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"  WARN: {key}: {e}")
+
+    print("\nRestarting...")
+    try:
+        api.restart_space(space_id)
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"  Restart: {e}")
+
+    owner = space_id.split("/")[0].lower()
+    name = space_id.split("/")[1]
+    print(f"\nDone! https://{owner}-{name}.hf.space")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()

deploy_s11.py

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Deploy S11 as 2nd evolution island (exploration mode).
+
+Deploys the SAME code as S10 but with SPACE_ROLE=exploration secret.
+S11 uses higher mutation, wider feature search, more model diversity.
+
+Usage:
+    source .env.local
+    python3 hf-space/deploy_s11.py
+"""
+
+import os, sys
+from pathlib import Path
+from huggingface_hub import HfApi, CommitOperationAdd
+
+SPACE_ID = "lbjlincoln/nomos-nba-quant-2"
+HF_TOKEN = os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN") or os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN_2")
+LOCAL_DIR = Path(__file__).parent
+
+# Same secrets as S10 + SPACE_ROLE override
+SECRETS = {
+    "DATABASE_URL": os.environ.get("DATABASE_URL", ""),
+    "SUPABASE_URL": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_URL", ""),
+    "SUPABASE_API_KEY": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_API_KEY", ""),
+    "SUPABASE_PASSWORD": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_PASSWORD", ""),
+    "SUPABASE_URL_2": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_URL_2", ""),
+    "SUPABASE_ANON_KEY_2": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_ANON_KEY_2", ""),
+    "SUPABASE_PASSWORD_2": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_PASSWORD_2", ""),
+    "SUPABASE_POOLER_2": os.environ.get("SUPABASE_POOLER_2", ""),
+    "ODDS_API_KEY": os.environ.get("ODDS_API_KEY", ""),
+    "GOOGLE_API_KEY": os.environ.get("GOOGLE_API_KEY", ""),
+    "HF_TOKEN": os.environ.get("HF_TOKEN", ""),
+    "TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN": os.environ.get("TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN", ""),
+    "ADMIN_TELEGRAM_ID": os.environ.get("ADMIN_TELEGRAM_ID", ""),
+    # S11 differentiator: exploration mode
+    "SPACE_ROLE": "exploration",
+}
+
+# Files to skip (S11 doesn't need deploy scripts or experiment_runner)
+SKIP = {"__pycache__", ".pyc", "node_modules", ".git", "deploy.py", "deploy_s11.py"}
+
+
+def main():
+    if not HF_TOKEN:
+        print("ERROR: HF_TOKEN not set. Run: source .env.local")
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    # Engine parity check
+    root_engine = (LOCAL_DIR.parent / "features" / "engine.py").read_bytes()
+    hf_engine = (LOCAL_DIR / "features" / "engine.py").read_bytes()
+    if root_engine != hf_engine:
+        print("ERROR: features/engine.py diverged! Fix parity first.")
+        sys.exit(1)
+    print("Engine parity check: OK")
+
+    api = HfApi(token=HF_TOKEN)
+    print(f"Deploying S11 (EXPLORATION island) to {SPACE_ID}...")
+
+    operations = []
+    for fp in LOCAL_DIR.rglob("*"):
+        if fp.is_dir():
+            continue
+        if any(s in str(fp) for s in SKIP):
+            continue
+        rel = fp.relative_to(LOCAL_DIR)
+        print(f"  + {rel}")
+        operations.append(CommitOperationAdd(path_in_repo=str(rel), path_or_fileobj=str(fp)))
+
+    if not operations:
+        print("ERROR: No files found")
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    print(f"\nUploading {len(operations)} files...")
+    try:
+        api.create_commit(
+            repo_id=SPACE_ID, repo_type="space", operations=operations,
+            commit_message="feat: S11 as exploration island (higher mut, wider features)",
+        )
+        print("Upload OK!")
+    except Exception as e:
+        if "404" in str(e) or "not found" in str(e).lower():
+            print(f"Space not found, creating {SPACE_ID}...")
+            api.create_repo(repo_id=SPACE_ID, repo_type="space", space_sdk="docker",
+                           space_hardware="cpu-basic", private=False)
+            api.create_commit(
+                repo_id=SPACE_ID, repo_type="space", operations=operations,
+                commit_message="feat: S11 as exploration island (higher mut, wider features)",
+            )
+        else:
+            raise
+
+    print("\nConfiguring secrets (including SPACE_ROLE=exploration)...")
+    for key, value in SECRETS.items():
+        if value:
+            try:
+                api.add_space_secret(SPACE_ID, key, value)
+                print(f"  Set {key}")
+            except Exception as e:
+                print(f"  WARN: {key}: {e}")
+
+    print("\nRestarting Space...")
+    try:
+        api.restart_space(SPACE_ID)
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"  Restart: {e}")
+
+    print(f"\nDone! S11 (exploration): https://lbjlincoln-nomos-nba-quant-2.hf.space")
+    print(f"Monitor: https://huggingface.co/spaces/{SPACE_ID}")
+    print("\nS11 config: SPACE_ROLE=exploration → mut=0.15, cx=0.70, feat=80, tournament=5")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()