Spaces:
Sleeping
Sleeping
Abhijeet Mahapatra commited on
Commit ·
534e9ee
1
Parent(s): 45386d3
Fixe s for HF hosting
Browse files
README.md
CHANGED
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@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ colorFrom: blue
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colorTo: indigo
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sdk: gradio
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sdk_version: 6.18.0
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app_file:
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pinned: false
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---
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colorTo: indigo
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sdk: gradio
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sdk_version: 6.18.0
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+
app_file: server.py
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pinned: false
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---
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app.py
DELETED
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@@ -1,876 +0,0 @@
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"""
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dashboard_server.py
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====================
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Iroha Financial Intelligence — gr.Server entry point.
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Architecture
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------------
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gr.Server (extends FastAPI)
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├── GET / → serves frontend/index.html
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├── GET /static/* → serves frontend/{style.css, app.js} (StaticFiles)
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│
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├── @server.api run_inference → DoFlow / SCM causal query (via BACKEND_API)
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│
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├── GET /v2/health → health-check
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│
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└── All existing /v2/* routers from main.py are included here too
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(so this server is a superset of main.py).
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Usage
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-----
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python dashboard_server.py
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Or with uvicorn:
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uvicorn dashboard_server:server --host 0.0.0.0 --port 7860 --reload
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import os
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import sys
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import json
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import logging
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import urllib.error
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import urllib.parse
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import urllib.request
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from pathlib import Path
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import gradio as gr
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from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
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from dotenv import load_dotenv
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load_dotenv()
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BASE_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.resolve()
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if str(BASE_DIR) not in sys.path:
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sys.path.insert(0, str(BASE_DIR))
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# Also add the backend directory to sys.path so we can import 'app', 'causal', etc.
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BACKEND_DIR = (BASE_DIR.parent / "noisy_boy_backend").resolve()
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if BACKEND_DIR.exists() and str(BACKEND_DIR) not in sys.path:
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sys.path.insert(0, str(BACKEND_DIR))
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Logging
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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logging.basicConfig(
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level=logging.INFO,
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format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(name)s: %(message)s",
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handlers=[logging.StreamHandler()],
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)
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logger = logging.getLogger("dashboard-server")
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Backend URL
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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_BACKEND_BASE_URL: str = os.environ.get("BACKEND_API_URL", "http://localhost:8000")
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Public API
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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-
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def run_pipeline(
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ticker: str = "RELIANCE",
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threshold: float = 0.5,
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treatment: Optional[str] = None,
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outcome: Optional[str] = None,
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include_pywhyllm: bool = False,
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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Fetch the validated causal matrix for *ticker* from the backend API.
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Parameters
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----------
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ticker : NSE symbol (e.g. RELIANCE, HDFCBANK)
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threshold : adjacency threshold for DAG construction
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treatment : optional treatment node for pywhyllm assumptions
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outcome : optional outcome node for pywhyllm assumptions
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include_pywhyllm: request pywhyllm assumption report from backend
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Returns
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-------
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dict with keys:
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nodes, adj_matrix, dag_adj, equations, data_level,
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topological_order, nodes_graph, links_graph
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Raises RuntimeError if the backend cannot be reached or returns an error.
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"""
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params: dict = {"threshold": threshold}
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if treatment:
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params["treatment"] = treatment
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if outcome:
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params["outcome"] = outcome
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if include_pywhyllm:
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params["include_pywhyllm"] = "true"
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qs = urllib.parse.urlencode(params)
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url = f"{_BACKEND_BASE_URL}/v2/api/singular-causal/causal-matrix/{ticker.upper()}?{qs}"
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logger.info("run_pipeline: fetching %s", url)
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try:
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with urllib.request.urlopen(url, timeout=60) as resp:
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raw = resp.read()
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except urllib.error.URLError as exc:
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raise RuntimeError(
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f"Could not reach backend at {_BACKEND_BASE_URL}. "
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f"Ensure noisy_boy_backend is running. Original error: {exc}"
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) from exc
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payload = json.loads(raw)
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status = payload.get("status")
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if status == "not_found":
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raise RuntimeError(
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payload.get(
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"detail",
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f"No cached pipeline data for {ticker} on backend. "
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"Run the singular-causal pipeline on the backend first.",
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)
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)
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if status not in ("success", None, "ok"):
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raise RuntimeError(
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f"Backend returned unexpected status '{status}' for {ticker}. "
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f"Payload: {payload}"
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)
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# Build frontend-friendly graph representation
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nodes: List[str] = payload.get("nodes", [])
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adj_matrix = payload.get("adj_matrix", [])
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dag_adj = payload.get("dag_adj", [])
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nodes_graph = [{"id": n, "label": n} for n in nodes]
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links_graph = []
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for i, src in enumerate(nodes):
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for j, dst in enumerate(nodes):
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if i != j:
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try:
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score = float(adj_matrix[i][j])
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except (IndexError, TypeError, ValueError):
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score = 0.0
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if score >= threshold:
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links_graph.append({"source": src, "target": dst, "score": round(score, 4)})
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return {
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**payload,
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"nodes_graph": nodes_graph,
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"links_graph": links_graph,
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}
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Helpers
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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def _fetch_causal_matrix(
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ticker: str,
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treatment: Optional[str] = None,
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outcome: Optional[str] = None,
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include_pywhyllm: bool = False,
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threshold: float = 0.5,
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) -> Optional[dict]:
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"""
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Fetch the fully validated causal matrix from the backend API.
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Calls GET {BACKEND_BASE_URL}/v2/api/singular-causal/causal-matrix/{ticker}
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and returns the parsed JSON payload, or None on failure.
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The payload contains:
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nodes — ordered list of node names
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adj_matrix — raw float adjacency matrix
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dag_adj — thresholded 0/1 DAG
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equations — per-node structural equations (coefficients, intercepts, residual_std)
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data_level — (T, N) time-series observations used to fit the SCM
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topological_order — nodes in topological traversal order
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pywhyllm_report — (optional) assumption analysis for treatment→outcome
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"""
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import urllib.request
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import urllib.error
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import urllib.parse
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-
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params: dict = {"threshold": threshold}
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if treatment:
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params["treatment"] = treatment
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if outcome:
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params["outcome"] = outcome
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if include_pywhyllm:
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params["include_pywhyllm"] = "true"
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query_string = urllib.parse.urlencode(params)
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url = f"{_BACKEND_BASE_URL}/v2/api/singular-causal/causal-matrix/{ticker.upper()}?{query_string}"
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try:
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with urllib.request.urlopen(url, timeout=30) as resp:
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raw = resp.read()
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data = json.loads(raw)
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if data.get("status") not in ("success", None):
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logger.warning(
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"_fetch_causal_matrix: backend returned status=%s for URL %s. Payload: %s",
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data.get("status"), url, data,
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)
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return None
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return data
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except Exception as exc:
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logger.warning("_fetch_causal_matrix failed for %s: %s", ticker, exc)
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return None
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def _safe_json(obj: Any) -> Any:
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"""Recursively make numpy types JSON-serialisable."""
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try:
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import numpy as np
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if isinstance(obj, np.ndarray):
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return obj.tolist()
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if isinstance(obj, np.integer):
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return int(obj)
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if isinstance(obj, np.floating):
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return float(obj)
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except ImportError:
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pass
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if isinstance(obj, dict):
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return {k: _safe_json(v) for k, v in obj.items()}
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if isinstance(obj, (list, tuple)):
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return [_safe_json(v) for v in obj]
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return obj
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def _resolve_value(value: float, value_type: str, current: float) -> float:
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"""Convert a user-supplied value + value_type to the absolute node value."""
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vt = value_type.strip().lower()
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if vt == "absolute":
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return value
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if vt == "multiplier":
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return current * value
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if vt == "percent_change":
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return current * (1.0 + value / 100.0)
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# default: treat as absolute
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return value
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# Pure-numpy inference helpers (no local causal training imports)
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# These functions work entirely from the payload returned by the backend API.
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# ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────��──────────────
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def _build_dag_from_payload(payload: dict):
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"""
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Return a numpy bool DAG adjacency matrix and list of node names
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from the backend causal-matrix payload.
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"""
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import numpy as np
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nodes = payload["nodes"]
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dag_adj = np.array(payload["dag_adj"], dtype=bool)
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adj_matrix = np.array(payload["adj_matrix"], dtype=float)
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return nodes, dag_adj, adj_matrix
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def _propagate_intervention(
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nodes: list,
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dag_adj,
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equations: dict,
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data_level,
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topological_order: list,
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treatment: str,
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abs_value: float,
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targets: list,
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horizon: int = 5,
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):
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"""
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Propagate a hard intervention (do(treatment=abs_value)) through the
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structural equations for `horizon` steps, returning ATE per target node.
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Uses only numpy — no local causal model imports.
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"""
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import numpy as np
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node_to_idx = {n: i for i, n in enumerate(nodes)}
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n = len(nodes)
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T = data_level.shape[0]
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# Start from the last observed time step
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state = data_level[-1].copy().astype(float)
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# Fix the treatment node
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t_idx = node_to_idx[treatment]
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state[t_idx] = abs_value
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ate_per_target: Dict[str, float] = {}
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baseline = data_level[-1].copy().astype(float)
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for _ in range(horizon):
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new_state = state.copy()
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for node_name in topological_order:
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if node_name == treatment:
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continue
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eq = equations.get(node_name)
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if eq is None:
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continue
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parents = eq.get("parents", [])
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coefficients = eq.get("coefficients", {})
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intercept = float(eq.get("intercept", 0.0))
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if not parents:
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continue
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val = intercept
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for p in parents:
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p_idx = node_to_idx.get(p)
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if p_idx is not None:
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val += float(coefficients.get(p, 0.0)) * float(state[p_idx])
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n_idx = node_to_idx[node_name]
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new_state[n_idx] = val
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state = new_state
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for target in targets:
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t_i = node_to_idx.get(target)
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if t_i is not None:
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ate_per_target[target] = float(state[t_i] - baseline[t_i])
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return ate_per_target, state
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-
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| 326 |
-
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| 327 |
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def _abduct_and_predict(
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nodes: list,
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dag_adj,
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equations: dict,
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data_level,
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topological_order: list,
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treatment: str,
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cf_value: float,
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target: str,
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observed_t: int,
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):
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"""
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| 339 |
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Simple SCM abduction for counterfactual:
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1. Abduct residuals from the observed time step.
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2. Re-run structural equations with treatment fixed to cf_value.
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3. Return factual_outcome, cf_outcome, ITE.
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"""
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import numpy as np
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| 345 |
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node_to_idx = {n: i for i, n in enumerate(nodes)}
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obs = data_level[observed_t].copy().astype(float)
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| 348 |
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# Abduct residuals
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residuals: Dict[str, float] = {}
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for node_name in topological_order:
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eq = equations.get(node_name)
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| 353 |
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if eq is None or not eq.get("parents"):
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residuals[node_name] = 0.0
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continue
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| 356 |
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parents = eq.get("parents", [])
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| 357 |
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coefficients = eq.get("coefficients", {})
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intercept = float(eq.get("intercept", 0.0))
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predicted = intercept
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| 360 |
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for p in parents:
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p_idx = node_to_idx.get(p)
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| 362 |
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if p_idx is not None:
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predicted += float(coefficients.get(p, 0.0)) * float(obs[node_to_idx[p]])
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| 364 |
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residuals[node_name] = float(obs[node_to_idx[node_name]]) - predicted
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| 365 |
-
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| 366 |
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# Counterfactual: fix treatment, replay equations with abducted noise
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cf_state = obs.copy()
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cf_state[node_to_idx[treatment]] = cf_value
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-
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for node_name in topological_order:
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if node_name == treatment:
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continue
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eq = equations.get(node_name)
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| 374 |
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if eq is None or not eq.get("parents"):
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continue
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| 376 |
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parents = eq.get("parents", [])
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| 377 |
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coefficients = eq.get("coefficients", {})
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| 378 |
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intercept = float(eq.get("intercept", 0.0))
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| 379 |
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predicted = intercept
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| 380 |
-
for p in parents:
|
| 381 |
-
p_idx = node_to_idx.get(p)
|
| 382 |
-
if p_idx is not None:
|
| 383 |
-
predicted += float(coefficients.get(p, 0.0)) * float(cf_state[p_idx])
|
| 384 |
-
n_idx = node_to_idx[node_name]
|
| 385 |
-
cf_state[n_idx] = predicted + residuals.get(node_name, 0.0)
|
| 386 |
-
|
| 387 |
-
factual_outcome = float(obs[node_to_idx[target]])
|
| 388 |
-
cf_outcome = float(cf_state[node_to_idx[target]])
|
| 389 |
-
ite = cf_outcome - factual_outcome
|
| 390 |
-
return factual_outcome, cf_outcome, ite
|
| 391 |
-
|
| 392 |
-
|
| 393 |
-
# ── API: Causal inference (assert / intervene / counterfactual) ───────────
|
| 394 |
-
#
|
| 395 |
-
# Architecture:
|
| 396 |
-
# 1. Fetch the VALIDATED causal matrix from noisy_boy_backend via HTTP.
|
| 397 |
-
# The backend has already run CUTS+ learning + pywhyllm + DoWhy validation.
|
| 398 |
-
# 2. Use the payload data (equations, adj, data_level) for inference
|
| 399 |
-
# using pure numpy/pandas — no local causal training imports required.
|
| 400 |
-
# 3. Optionally consult pywhyllm guidance from the backend payload.
|
| 401 |
-
from huggingface_hub import spaces
|
| 402 |
-
|
| 403 |
-
@spaces.GPU
|
| 404 |
-
def run_inference(
|
| 405 |
-
ticker: str = "RELIANCE",
|
| 406 |
-
mode: str = "assert",
|
| 407 |
-
treatment: str = "Revenue",
|
| 408 |
-
outcome: Optional[str] = "NetIncome",
|
| 409 |
-
target: Optional[str] = None,
|
| 410 |
-
value: float = 1.1,
|
| 411 |
-
cf_value: Optional[float] = None,
|
| 412 |
-
value_type: str = "multiplier",
|
| 413 |
-
horizon: int = 5,
|
| 414 |
-
observed_t: int = -1,
|
| 415 |
-
threshold: float = 0.5,
|
| 416 |
-
use_pywhyllm: bool = False,
|
| 417 |
-
return_assumption_report: bool = False,
|
| 418 |
-
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
| 419 |
-
"""
|
| 420 |
-
Three-layer causal inference driven by the backend's validated causal matrix.
|
| 421 |
-
|
| 422 |
-
Parameters
|
| 423 |
-
----------
|
| 424 |
-
ticker : NSE ticker (backend must have a cached pipeline run for it)
|
| 425 |
-
mode : "assert" | "intervene" | "counterfactual"
|
| 426 |
-
treatment : source node name
|
| 427 |
-
outcome : outcome node (assert / Layer-1 association)
|
| 428 |
-
target : target node (counterfactual / Layer-3); if None, falls back to outcome
|
| 429 |
-
value : intervention magnitude (Layer 2)
|
| 430 |
-
cf_value : explicit counterfactual value (Layer 3); if None, 'value' + 'value_type' used
|
| 431 |
-
value_type : "absolute" | "multiplier" | "percent_change"
|
| 432 |
-
horizon : propagation horizon for intervention (Layer 2, steps)
|
| 433 |
-
observed_t : time index for counterfactual abduction (Layer 3; -1 = last obs)
|
| 434 |
-
threshold : adjacency threshold used when loading the graph
|
| 435 |
-
use_pywhyllm : consult pywhyllm for structural assumptions before running DoWhy
|
| 436 |
-
return_assumption_report : include the pywhyllm report dict in the response
|
| 437 |
-
|
| 438 |
-
Returns
|
| 439 |
-
-------
|
| 440 |
-
JSON with ate, ci_lower, ci_upper, probability, ripple_effects,
|
| 441 |
-
and (for counterfactual) factual_outcome, counterfactual_outcome, ite,
|
| 442 |
-
shapley_contributions.
|
| 443 |
-
"""
|
| 444 |
-
import numpy as np
|
| 445 |
-
import pandas as pd
|
| 446 |
-
|
| 447 |
-
try:
|
| 448 |
-
# ── 0. Determine target node ──────────────────────────────────────────
|
| 449 |
-
target_node = target if target else outcome
|
| 450 |
-
if not target_node:
|
| 451 |
-
return {"status": "error", "detail": "Either 'outcome' or 'target' must be provided."}
|
| 452 |
-
|
| 453 |
-
# ── 1. Fetch validated causal matrix from backend ─────────────────────
|
| 454 |
-
# This includes the adjacency matrix, fitted structural equations,
|
| 455 |
-
# level-domain data, and optionally a pywhyllm assumption report.
|
| 456 |
-
payload = _fetch_causal_matrix(
|
| 457 |
-
ticker=ticker,
|
| 458 |
-
treatment=treatment if use_pywhyllm else None,
|
| 459 |
-
outcome=target_node if use_pywhyllm else None,
|
| 460 |
-
include_pywhyllm=use_pywhyllm,
|
| 461 |
-
threshold=threshold,
|
| 462 |
-
)
|
| 463 |
-
|
| 464 |
-
if payload is None:
|
| 465 |
-
return {
|
| 466 |
-
"status": "error",
|
| 467 |
-
"detail": (
|
| 468 |
-
f"Could not fetch causal matrix for {ticker} from backend. "
|
| 469 |
-
"Ensure noisy_boy_backend is running and the pipeline has been run for this ticker."
|
| 470 |
-
),
|
| 471 |
-
}
|
| 472 |
-
|
| 473 |
-
if payload.get("status") == "not_found":
|
| 474 |
-
return {
|
| 475 |
-
"status": "error",
|
| 476 |
-
"detail": payload.get("detail", f"No cached pipeline data for {ticker}."),
|
| 477 |
-
}
|
| 478 |
-
|
| 479 |
-
# ── 2. Unpack payload (no local causal training imports) ──────────────
|
| 480 |
-
nodes, dag_adj, adj_matrix = _build_dag_from_payload(payload)
|
| 481 |
-
node_to_idx = {n: i for i, n in enumerate(nodes)}
|
| 482 |
-
data_level = np.array(payload["data_level"], dtype=float)
|
| 483 |
-
equations_raw = payload.get("equations", {})
|
| 484 |
-
topo_order = payload.get("topological_order", nodes)
|
| 485 |
-
|
| 486 |
-
T = data_level.shape[0]
|
| 487 |
-
df = pd.DataFrame(data_level, columns=nodes)
|
| 488 |
-
|
| 489 |
-
if treatment not in node_to_idx:
|
| 490 |
-
return {"status": "error", "detail": f"Unknown treatment node: {treatment}"}
|
| 491 |
-
if target_node not in node_to_idx:
|
| 492 |
-
return {"status": "error", "detail": f"Unknown outcome/target node: {target_node}"}
|
| 493 |
-
if df.shape[0] < 5:
|
| 494 |
-
return {
|
| 495 |
-
"status": "error",
|
| 496 |
-
"detail": f"Insufficient observations ({df.shape[0]}) to run inference.",
|
| 497 |
-
}
|
| 498 |
-
|
| 499 |
-
# ── 3. pywhyllm structural guidance (from backend payload) ────────────
|
| 500 |
-
pywhyllm_report: Optional[dict] = payload.get("pywhyllm_report")
|
| 501 |
-
adjustment_sets: List[List[str]] = []
|
| 502 |
-
|
| 503 |
-
if use_pywhyllm and pywhyllm_report and pywhyllm_report.get("available"):
|
| 504 |
-
raw_backdoor = pywhyllm_report.get("suggested_backdoor_sets") or []
|
| 505 |
-
valid_nodes = set(nodes) - {treatment, target_node}
|
| 506 |
-
for suggested_set in raw_backdoor:
|
| 507 |
-
clean = [n for n in suggested_set if n in valid_nodes]
|
| 508 |
-
if clean and clean not in adjustment_sets:
|
| 509 |
-
adjustment_sets.append(clean)
|
| 510 |
-
|
| 511 |
-
confounders = [
|
| 512 |
-
n for n in (pywhyllm_report.get("suggested_confounders") or [])
|
| 513 |
-
if n in valid_nodes
|
| 514 |
-
]
|
| 515 |
-
if confounders and confounders not in adjustment_sets:
|
| 516 |
-
adjustment_sets.append(confounders)
|
| 517 |
-
|
| 518 |
-
result: Dict[str, Any] = {}
|
| 519 |
-
|
| 520 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 521 |
-
# LAYER 1 — Association: "What does Y look like given X?"
|
| 522 |
-
# Uses DoWhy with the backend-provided DAG, falling back to OLS.
|
| 523 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 524 |
-
if mode == "assert":
|
| 525 |
-
try:
|
| 526 |
-
from dowhy import CausalModel
|
| 527 |
-
|
| 528 |
-
# Build DOT graph string from dag_adj
|
| 529 |
-
edges = []
|
| 530 |
-
for si, src in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 531 |
-
for di, dst in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 532 |
-
if dag_adj[si, di]:
|
| 533 |
-
edges.append(f"{src} -> {dst}")
|
| 534 |
-
graph_dot = "digraph{" + "; ".join(edges) + "}"
|
| 535 |
-
|
| 536 |
-
dowhy_model = CausalModel(
|
| 537 |
-
data=df,
|
| 538 |
-
treatment=treatment,
|
| 539 |
-
outcome=target_node,
|
| 540 |
-
graph=graph_dot,
|
| 541 |
-
)
|
| 542 |
-
identified_estimand = dowhy_model.identify_effect(
|
| 543 |
-
proceed_when_unidentifiable=True
|
| 544 |
-
)
|
| 545 |
-
estimate = dowhy_model.estimate_effect(
|
| 546 |
-
identified_estimand,
|
| 547 |
-
method_name="backdoor.linear_regression",
|
| 548 |
-
)
|
| 549 |
-
ate = float(estimate.value)
|
| 550 |
-
|
| 551 |
-
# Confidence interval from OLS residuals
|
| 552 |
-
se: float = 0.0
|
| 553 |
-
try:
|
| 554 |
-
import numpy.linalg as nla
|
| 555 |
-
X = df[[c for c in df.columns if c != target_node]].values
|
| 556 |
-
y = df[target_node].values
|
| 557 |
-
XtX_inv = nla.pinv(X.T @ X)
|
| 558 |
-
resid = y - X @ nla.lstsq(X, y, rcond=None)[0]
|
| 559 |
-
sigma2 = float(np.sum(resid ** 2) / max(1, len(y) - X.shape[1]))
|
| 560 |
-
t_idx_local = list(df.columns).index(treatment)
|
| 561 |
-
se = float(np.sqrt(max(0.0, sigma2 * XtX_inv[t_idx_local, t_idx_local])))
|
| 562 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 563 |
-
se = abs(ate) * 0.15 # graceful fallback
|
| 564 |
-
|
| 565 |
-
ci_lower = ate - 1.96 * se
|
| 566 |
-
ci_upper = ate + 1.96 * se
|
| 567 |
-
prob = min(1.0, abs(ate) / (abs(ate) + se + 1e-9))
|
| 568 |
-
|
| 569 |
-
# Ripple effects: direct downstream neighbours of treatment
|
| 570 |
-
ripple_effects = []
|
| 571 |
-
t_idx_g = node_to_idx[treatment]
|
| 572 |
-
for j, node in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 573 |
-
if node == treatment or node == target_node:
|
| 574 |
-
continue
|
| 575 |
-
if dag_adj[t_idx_g, j]:
|
| 576 |
-
edge_score = float(adj_matrix[t_idx_g, j])
|
| 577 |
-
ripple_effects.append({
|
| 578 |
-
"ticker": node,
|
| 579 |
-
"direction": 1 if ate > 0 else -1,
|
| 580 |
-
"magnitude": round(edge_score * abs(ate), 4),
|
| 581 |
-
})
|
| 582 |
-
|
| 583 |
-
result = {
|
| 584 |
-
"ate": ate,
|
| 585 |
-
"ci_lower": ci_lower,
|
| 586 |
-
"ci_upper": ci_upper,
|
| 587 |
-
"probability": prob,
|
| 588 |
-
"strategy": "backdoor.linear_regression",
|
| 589 |
-
"adjustment_set": adjustment_sets[0] if adjustment_sets else [],
|
| 590 |
-
"ripple_effects": ripple_effects,
|
| 591 |
-
}
|
| 592 |
-
|
| 593 |
-
except Exception as dowhy_exc:
|
| 594 |
-
# DoWhy not installed or identification failed — fall back to OLS
|
| 595 |
-
logger.warning("DoWhy association failed (%s), falling back to OLS", dowhy_exc)
|
| 596 |
-
t_idx_g = node_to_idx[treatment]
|
| 597 |
-
out_idx = node_to_idx[target_node]
|
| 598 |
-
|
| 599 |
-
# Simple OLS: regress target on treatment
|
| 600 |
-
X = df[[treatment]].values
|
| 601 |
-
y = df[target_node].values
|
| 602 |
-
import numpy.linalg as nla
|
| 603 |
-
coef = nla.lstsq(np.c_[np.ones(len(X)), X], y, rcond=None)[0]
|
| 604 |
-
ate = float(coef[1])
|
| 605 |
-
se = abs(ate) * 0.15
|
| 606 |
-
ci_lower = ate - 1.96 * se
|
| 607 |
-
ci_upper = ate + 1.96 * se
|
| 608 |
-
|
| 609 |
-
ripple_effects = []
|
| 610 |
-
for j, node in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 611 |
-
if node == treatment or node == target_node:
|
| 612 |
-
continue
|
| 613 |
-
if dag_adj[t_idx_g, j]:
|
| 614 |
-
ripple_effects.append({
|
| 615 |
-
"ticker": node,
|
| 616 |
-
"direction": 1 if ate > 0 else -1,
|
| 617 |
-
"magnitude": round(float(adj_matrix[t_idx_g, j]) * abs(ate), 4),
|
| 618 |
-
})
|
| 619 |
-
|
| 620 |
-
result = {
|
| 621 |
-
"ate": ate,
|
| 622 |
-
"ci_lower": ci_lower,
|
| 623 |
-
"ci_upper": ci_upper,
|
| 624 |
-
"probability": min(1.0, abs(ate) / (abs(ate) + se + 1e-9)),
|
| 625 |
-
"strategy": "ols_fallback",
|
| 626 |
-
"adjustment_set": adjustment_sets[0] if adjustment_sets else [],
|
| 627 |
-
"ripple_effects": ripple_effects,
|
| 628 |
-
}
|
| 629 |
-
|
| 630 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 631 |
-
# LAYER 2 — Intervention: "What will happen to Y if we do X=value?"
|
| 632 |
-
# Propagates through structural equations from the backend payload.
|
| 633 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 634 |
-
elif mode == "intervene":
|
| 635 |
-
current_val = float(data_level[-1, node_to_idx[treatment]])
|
| 636 |
-
abs_value = _resolve_value(value, value_type, current_val)
|
| 637 |
-
|
| 638 |
-
# Try DoWhy for ATE estimation first
|
| 639 |
-
ate = 0.0
|
| 640 |
-
method_used = "scm_propagation"
|
| 641 |
-
try:
|
| 642 |
-
from dowhy import CausalModel
|
| 643 |
-
|
| 644 |
-
edges = []
|
| 645 |
-
for si, src in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 646 |
-
for di, dst in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 647 |
-
if dag_adj[si, di]:
|
| 648 |
-
edges.append(f"{src} -> {dst}")
|
| 649 |
-
graph_dot = "digraph{" + "; ".join(edges) + "}"
|
| 650 |
-
|
| 651 |
-
dowhy_model = CausalModel(
|
| 652 |
-
data=df,
|
| 653 |
-
treatment=treatment,
|
| 654 |
-
outcome=target_node,
|
| 655 |
-
graph=graph_dot,
|
| 656 |
-
)
|
| 657 |
-
identified_estimand = dowhy_model.identify_effect(
|
| 658 |
-
proceed_when_unidentifiable=True
|
| 659 |
-
)
|
| 660 |
-
estimate = dowhy_model.estimate_effect(
|
| 661 |
-
identified_estimand,
|
| 662 |
-
method_name="backdoor.linear_regression",
|
| 663 |
-
)
|
| 664 |
-
ate_unit = float(estimate.value)
|
| 665 |
-
delta = abs_value - current_val
|
| 666 |
-
ate = ate_unit * delta
|
| 667 |
-
method_used = "backdoor.linear_regression"
|
| 668 |
-
except Exception as dowhy_exc:
|
| 669 |
-
logger.warning("DoWhy intervention failed (%s), using SCM propagation", dowhy_exc)
|
| 670 |
-
|
| 671 |
-
# SCM propagation for ripple effects (pure numpy, no training imports)
|
| 672 |
-
ate_per_target, final_state = _propagate_intervention(
|
| 673 |
-
nodes=nodes,
|
| 674 |
-
dag_adj=dag_adj,
|
| 675 |
-
equations=equations_raw,
|
| 676 |
-
data_level=data_level,
|
| 677 |
-
topological_order=topo_order,
|
| 678 |
-
treatment=treatment,
|
| 679 |
-
abs_value=abs_value,
|
| 680 |
-
targets=[target_node] + [n for n in nodes if n != treatment],
|
| 681 |
-
horizon=horizon,
|
| 682 |
-
)
|
| 683 |
-
|
| 684 |
-
if method_used == "scm_propagation" and target_node in ate_per_target:
|
| 685 |
-
ate = float(ate_per_target[target_node])
|
| 686 |
-
|
| 687 |
-
se = abs(ate) * 0.12
|
| 688 |
-
ci_lower = ate - 1.96 * se
|
| 689 |
-
ci_upper = ate + 1.96 * se
|
| 690 |
-
|
| 691 |
-
ripple_effects = []
|
| 692 |
-
for node, delta_val in ate_per_target.items():
|
| 693 |
-
if node == treatment:
|
| 694 |
-
continue
|
| 695 |
-
ripple_effects.append({
|
| 696 |
-
"ticker": node,
|
| 697 |
-
"direction": 1 if float(delta_val) > 0 else -1,
|
| 698 |
-
"magnitude": round(abs(float(delta_val)), 4),
|
| 699 |
-
})
|
| 700 |
-
|
| 701 |
-
result = {
|
| 702 |
-
"ate": ate,
|
| 703 |
-
"ci_lower": ci_lower,
|
| 704 |
-
"ci_upper": ci_upper,
|
| 705 |
-
"probability": min(1.0, abs(ate) / (abs(ate) + abs(ci_upper - ci_lower) / 2 + 1e-9)),
|
| 706 |
-
"strategy": method_used,
|
| 707 |
-
"intervention_value": abs_value,
|
| 708 |
-
"value_type": value_type,
|
| 709 |
-
"horizon": horizon,
|
| 710 |
-
"ripple_effects": ripple_effects,
|
| 711 |
-
"adjustment_set": adjustment_sets[0] if adjustment_sets else [],
|
| 712 |
-
}
|
| 713 |
-
|
| 714 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 715 |
-
# LAYER 3 — Counterfactual: "What if X had been different in the past?"
|
| 716 |
-
# Uses SCM abduction via pure numpy structural equations.
|
| 717 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 718 |
-
elif mode in ("counterfactual", "counter"):
|
| 719 |
-
# Resolve observed timestep
|
| 720 |
-
t = observed_t if observed_t >= 0 else (T + observed_t)
|
| 721 |
-
t = max(0, min(T - 1, t))
|
| 722 |
-
|
| 723 |
-
# Resolve counterfactual value
|
| 724 |
-
current_val = float(data_level[t, node_to_idx[treatment]])
|
| 725 |
-
if cf_value is not None:
|
| 726 |
-
abs_cf_value = float(cf_value)
|
| 727 |
-
else:
|
| 728 |
-
abs_cf_value = _resolve_value(value, value_type, current_val)
|
| 729 |
-
|
| 730 |
-
# Try DoWhy GCM first
|
| 731 |
-
gcm_used = False
|
| 732 |
-
factual_outcome = 0.0
|
| 733 |
-
cf_outcome_val = 0.0
|
| 734 |
-
ite = 0.0
|
| 735 |
-
|
| 736 |
-
try:
|
| 737 |
-
import dowhy.gcm as gcm_module
|
| 738 |
-
import networkx as nx
|
| 739 |
-
|
| 740 |
-
causal_graph = nx.DiGraph()
|
| 741 |
-
for si, src in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 742 |
-
for di, dst in enumerate(nodes):
|
| 743 |
-
if dag_adj[si, di]:
|
| 744 |
-
causal_graph.add_edge(src, dst)
|
| 745 |
-
for node in nodes:
|
| 746 |
-
if node not in causal_graph.nodes:
|
| 747 |
-
causal_graph.add_node(node)
|
| 748 |
-
|
| 749 |
-
gcm_model = gcm_module.InvertibleStructuralCausalModel(causal_graph)
|
| 750 |
-
gcm_module.auto.assign_mechanisms(gcm_model, df)
|
| 751 |
-
gcm_module.fit(gcm_model, df)
|
| 752 |
-
|
| 753 |
-
observed_data = df.iloc[[t]]
|
| 754 |
-
cf_val_fixed = abs_cf_value
|
| 755 |
-
cf_samples = gcm_module.counterfactual_samples(
|
| 756 |
-
gcm_model,
|
| 757 |
-
{treatment: lambda x, v=cf_val_fixed: np.full(x.shape, v)},
|
| 758 |
-
observed_data=observed_data,
|
| 759 |
-
num_samples_to_draw=1,
|
| 760 |
-
)
|
| 761 |
-
|
| 762 |
-
factual_outcome = float(observed_data[target_node].iloc[0])
|
| 763 |
-
cf_outcome_val = float(cf_samples[target_node].iloc[0])
|
| 764 |
-
ite = cf_outcome_val - factual_outcome
|
| 765 |
-
gcm_used = True
|
| 766 |
-
|
| 767 |
-
except Exception as gcm_exc:
|
| 768 |
-
logger.warning("DoWhy GCM counterfactual failed (%s), using SCM abduction", gcm_exc)
|
| 769 |
-
|
| 770 |
-
if not gcm_used:
|
| 771 |
-
factual_outcome, cf_outcome_val, ite = _abduct_and_predict(
|
| 772 |
-
nodes=nodes,
|
| 773 |
-
dag_adj=dag_adj,
|
| 774 |
-
equations=equations_raw,
|
| 775 |
-
data_level=data_level,
|
| 776 |
-
topological_order=topo_order,
|
| 777 |
-
treatment=treatment,
|
| 778 |
-
cf_value=abs_cf_value,
|
| 779 |
-
target=target_node,
|
| 780 |
-
observed_t=t,
|
| 781 |
-
)
|
| 782 |
-
|
| 783 |
-
# Shapley: single-treatment — just use the ITE directly
|
| 784 |
-
shapley = {treatment: ite}
|
| 785 |
-
|
| 786 |
-
# SE from residual_std of the target equation (from backend payload)
|
| 787 |
-
target_eq_data = equations_raw.get(target_node, {})
|
| 788 |
-
se = float(target_eq_data.get("residual_std", abs(ite) * 0.15))
|
| 789 |
-
ci_lower = ite - 1.96 * se
|
| 790 |
-
ci_upper = ite + 1.96 * se
|
| 791 |
-
|
| 792 |
-
result = {
|
| 793 |
-
"ate": ite,
|
| 794 |
-
"ite": ite,
|
| 795 |
-
"factual_outcome": factual_outcome,
|
| 796 |
-
"counterfactual_outcome": cf_outcome_val,
|
| 797 |
-
"ci_lower": ci_lower,
|
| 798 |
-
"ci_upper": ci_upper,
|
| 799 |
-
"probability": min(1.0, abs(ite) / (abs(ite) + se + 1e-9)),
|
| 800 |
-
"strategy": "dowhy_gcm" if gcm_used else "scm_abduction",
|
| 801 |
-
"counterfactual_value": abs_cf_value,
|
| 802 |
-
"value_type": value_type,
|
| 803 |
-
"observed_t": t,
|
| 804 |
-
"shapley_contributions": shapley,
|
| 805 |
-
"ripple_effects": [],
|
| 806 |
-
}
|
| 807 |
-
|
| 808 |
-
else:
|
| 809 |
-
return {
|
| 810 |
-
"status": "error",
|
| 811 |
-
"detail": f"Unknown mode '{mode}'. Must be one of: assert, intervene, counterfactual.",
|
| 812 |
-
}
|
| 813 |
-
|
| 814 |
-
# ── Attach pywhyllm assumption report if requested ────────────────────
|
| 815 |
-
if return_assumption_report and pywhyllm_report:
|
| 816 |
-
result["pywhyllm_report"] = pywhyllm_report
|
| 817 |
-
|
| 818 |
-
return _safe_json({"status": "ok", "ticker": ticker.upper(), "mode": mode, **result})
|
| 819 |
-
|
| 820 |
-
except Exception as exc:
|
| 821 |
-
logger.exception("run_inference failed")
|
| 822 |
-
return {"status": "error", "detail": str(exc)}
|
| 823 |
-
|
| 824 |
-
|
| 825 |
-
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
| 826 |
-
# Gradio UI & Entry point
|
| 827 |
-
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
| 828 |
-
|
| 829 |
-
with gr.Blocks(title="Iroha Causal Terminal") as demo:
|
| 830 |
-
gr.Markdown("# Iroha Causal Terminal")
|
| 831 |
-
gr.Markdown("Iroha Financial Intelligence — real-time causal probability matrix, HHKD decomposition, DoFlow inference and sector hierarchy over NIFTY50.")
|
| 832 |
-
|
| 833 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 834 |
-
ticker = gr.Textbox(label="Ticker", value="RELIANCE")
|
| 835 |
-
mode = gr.Dropdown(choices=["assert", "intervene", "counterfactual"], label="Mode", value="assert")
|
| 836 |
-
treatment = gr.Textbox(label="Treatment", value="Revenue")
|
| 837 |
-
outcome = gr.Textbox(label="Outcome", value="NetIncome")
|
| 838 |
-
target = gr.Textbox(label="Target", value="")
|
| 839 |
-
|
| 840 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 841 |
-
value = gr.Number(label="Value", value=1.1)
|
| 842 |
-
cf_value = gr.Number(label="CF Value")
|
| 843 |
-
value_type = gr.Dropdown(choices=["absolute", "multiplier", "percent_change"], label="Value Type", value="multiplier")
|
| 844 |
-
horizon = gr.Number(label="Horizon", value=5, precision=0)
|
| 845 |
-
observed_t = gr.Number(label="Observed T", value=-1, precision=0)
|
| 846 |
-
threshold = gr.Number(label="Threshold", value=0.5)
|
| 847 |
-
|
| 848 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 849 |
-
use_pywhyllm = gr.Checkbox(label="Use PyWhyLLM", value=False)
|
| 850 |
-
return_assumption_report = gr.Checkbox(label="Return Assumption Report", value=False)
|
| 851 |
-
|
| 852 |
-
btn = gr.Button("Run Inference")
|
| 853 |
-
out = gr.JSON(label="Result")
|
| 854 |
-
|
| 855 |
-
btn.click(
|
| 856 |
-
fn=run_inference,
|
| 857 |
-
inputs=[
|
| 858 |
-
ticker, mode, treatment, outcome, target, value, cf_value, value_type,
|
| 859 |
-
horizon, observed_t, threshold, use_pywhyllm, return_assumption_report
|
| 860 |
-
],
|
| 861 |
-
outputs=out,
|
| 862 |
-
api_name="run_inference"
|
| 863 |
-
)
|
| 864 |
-
|
| 865 |
-
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 866 |
-
port = int(os.environ.get("GRADIO_SERVER_PORT", os.environ.get("PORT", "7860")))
|
| 867 |
-
host = os.environ.get("GRADIO_SERVER_NAME", "0.0.0.0")
|
| 868 |
-
|
| 869 |
-
logger.info(f"Starting Iroha Causal Terminal on {host}:{port}")
|
| 870 |
-
|
| 871 |
-
demo.launch(
|
| 872 |
-
server_name=host,
|
| 873 |
-
server_port=port,
|
| 874 |
-
show_error=True,
|
| 875 |
-
ssr_mode="cdn"
|
| 876 |
-
)
|
|
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|
server.py
CHANGED
|
@@ -883,4 +883,5 @@ if __name__ == "__main__":
|
|
| 883 |
server_name=host,
|
| 884 |
server_port=port,
|
| 885 |
show_error=True,
|
|
|
|
| 886 |
)
|
|
|
|
| 883 |
server_name=host,
|
| 884 |
server_port=port,
|
| 885 |
show_error=True,
|
| 886 |
+
ssr_mode="cdn"
|
| 887 |
)
|