| library(shiny) |
| library(tidyverse) |
| library(patchwork) |
| library(gt) |
| library(tidymodels) |
| library(conflicted) |
| library(arrow) |
| library(xgboost) |
| conflicts_prefer(shiny::observe) |
| conflicts_prefer(dplyr::filter) |
| conflicts_prefer(dplyr::select) |
|
|
| pbp <- read_parquet("created_pbp.parquet") |
| recipe_obj <- readRDS("recipe4.rds") |
| booster <- xgb.load("model4.json") |
| |
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|
| predict_rv <- function(new_data) { |
| baked <- bake(recipe_obj, new_data = new_data) |
| |
| baked <- baked %>% select(-any_of("run_value")) |
| dmat <- xgb.DMatrix(data = as.matrix(baked)) |
| predict(booster, dmat) |
| } |
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|
|
| arsenal_profiles <- pbp %>% |
| filter(!pitch_type %in% c("PO", "FA", "EP", "KN", "UN", "CS", "SC"), |
| !is.na(pitch_type)) %>% |
| mutate(pitch_group = case_when( |
| pitch_type == "FF" ~ "FF", |
| pitch_type %in% c("FC", "SI") ~ "FA2", |
| pitch_type %in% c("CH", "FS") ~ "OS", |
| pitch_type %in% c("ST", "CU", "SV", "SL", "KC") ~ "BR" |
| )) %>% |
| group_by(pitcher, player_name, pitch_group) %>% |
| summarize( |
| release_speed = mean(release_speed, na.rm = TRUE), |
| pfx_x = mean(pfx_x, na.rm = TRUE), |
| pfx_z = mean(pfx_z, na.rm = TRUE), |
| arm_angle = mean(arm_angle, na.rm = TRUE), |
| release_pos_x = mean(release_pos_x, na.rm = TRUE), |
| release_pos_z = mean(release_pos_z, na.rm = TRUE), |
| release_extension = mean(release_extension, na.rm = TRUE), |
| n = n(), |
| .groups = "drop" |
| ) %>% |
| filter(n >= 20) |
|
|
| pitcher_primaries <- pbp %>% |
| filter(!pitch_type %in% c("PO", "FA", "EP", "KN", "UN", "CS", "SC")) %>% |
| group_by(pitcher) %>% |
| summarize( |
| primary_velo = mean(release_speed[pitch_type %in% c("FF", "SI")], na.rm = TRUE), |
| primary_pfxz = mean(pfx_z[pitch_type %in% c("FF", "SI")], na.rm = TRUE), |
| .groups = "drop" |
| ) |
|
|
| arsenal_profiles <- arsenal_profiles %>% |
| left_join(pitcher_primaries, by = "pitcher") %>% |
| mutate( |
| pfxz_diff = pfx_z - primary_pfxz, |
| primary_velo_diff = release_speed - primary_velo |
| ) |
|
|
| zone_centers <- data.frame( |
| zone = 1:9, |
| zone_label = c("1", "2", "3", |
| "4", "5", "6", |
| "7", "8", "9"), |
| plate_x = c(-0.55, 0, 0.55, -0.55, 0, 0.55, -0.55, 0, 0.55), |
| plate_z = c(3.1, 3.1, 3.1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 1.9, 1.9, 1.9) |
| ) |
|
|
| valid_pitchers <- arsenal_profiles %>% |
| group_by(pitcher, player_name) %>% |
| summarize(n_groups = n_distinct(pitch_group), .groups = "drop") %>% |
| filter(n_groups >= 2) %>% |
| arrange(player_name) |
|
|
| pitch_group_labels <- c( |
| "FF" = "Four-Seam Fastball", |
| "FA2" = "Cutter / Sinker", |
| "OS" = "Offspeed", |
| "BR" = "Breaking Ball" |
| ) |
|
|
| pitch_colors <- c( |
| "Four-Seam Fastball" = "#d62728", |
| "Cutter / Sinker" = "#ff7f0e", |
| "Offspeed" = "#2ca02c", |
| "Breaking Ball" = "#1f77b4" |
| ) |
|
|
| |
| |
| |
|
|
| ui <- fluidPage( |
| tags$head(tags$style(HTML(" |
| body { font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; background: #f8f8f8; } |
| .card { background: white; border-radius: 8px; padding: 20px; margin-bottom: 15px; |
| border: 1px solid #e0e0e0; } |
| .scenario-label { font-size: 14px; font-weight: 600; color: #1B3A5C; margin-bottom: 8px; } |
| .title-bar { background: #1B3A5C; color: white; padding: 12px 20px; border-radius: 8px; |
| margin-bottom: 15px; } |
| .title-bar h3 { margin: 0; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0.5px; } |
| .title-bar p { margin: 2px 0 0 0; font-size: 13px; opacity: 0.8; } |
| "))), |
| |
| div(class = "title-bar", |
| tags$h3("Pitch Sequencing Decision Tool"), |
| tags$p("Select a pitcher, set the scenario, and compare follow-up pitch options") |
| ), |
| |
| sidebarLayout( |
| sidebarPanel( |
| width = 3, |
| div(class = "card", |
| selectizeInput("pitcher_select", "Pitcher:", |
| choices = setNames(valid_pitchers$pitcher, valid_pitchers$player_name), |
| selected = NULL, |
| options = list(placeholder = "Search for a pitcher...")), |
| hr(), |
| div(class = "scenario-label", "Pitch #1 Setup"), |
| selectInput("pitch1_type", "Pitch Type:", choices = NULL), |
| selectInput("pitch1_zone", "Location:", |
| choices = setNames(zone_centers$zone, zone_centers$zone_label)), |
| selectInput("pitch1_result", "Swing Result:", |
| choices = c("Foul Ball" = "foul", |
| "Swinging Strike" = "swinging_strike", |
| "Foul Tip" = "foul_tip")), |
| sliderInput("timing_resid", "Batter Timing (inches):", |
| min = -25, max = 25, value = 0, step = 5), |
| helpText("Negative = batter was late | Positive = batter was early"), |
| hr(), |
| actionButton("generate", "Compare Follow-Up Pitches", |
| class = "btn-primary", style = "width: 100%; font-weight: 600;") |
| ) |
| ), |
| |
| mainPanel( |
| width = 9, |
| fluidRow( |
| column(12, div(class = "card", uiOutput("scenario_description"))) |
| ), |
| fluidRow( |
| column(12, div(class = "card", |
| tags$h5("Expected Run Value by Follow-Up Pitch", |
| style = "font-weight: 700; color: #1B3A5C;"), |
| tags$p("Blue = pitcher-favorable | Red = hitter-favorable", |
| style = "font-size: 12px; color: #888; margin-top: -4px;"), |
| plotOutput("comparison_grid", height = "500px") |
| )) |
| ), |
| fluidRow( |
| column(6, div(class = "card", |
| tags$h5("Optimal Pitch by Location", style = "font-weight: 700; color: #1B3A5C;"), |
| tags$p("Pitch with lowest expected run value at each location", |
| style = "font-size: 12px; color: #888; margin-top: -4px;"), |
| plotOutput("best_pitch_zone", height = "450px") |
| )), |
| column(6, div(class = "card", |
| tags$h5("Pitch #1 Location", style = "font-weight: 700; color: #1B3A5C;"), |
| plotOutput("zone_diagram", height = "220px"), |
| tags$h5("Arsenal Profile", style = "font-weight: 700; color: #1B3A5C; margin-top: 12px;"), |
| gt_output("arsenal_table") |
| )) |
| ) |
| ) |
| ) |
| ) |
|
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| |
| |
| |
|
|
| server <- function(input, output, session) { |
| |
| observe({ |
| req(input$pitcher_select) |
| pitcher_arsenal <- arsenal_profiles %>% |
| filter(pitcher == input$pitcher_select) %>% |
| mutate(label = pitch_group_labels[pitch_group]) %>% |
| arrange(desc(n)) |
| |
| choices <- setNames(pitcher_arsenal$pitch_group, pitcher_arsenal$label) |
| updateSelectInput(session, "pitch1_type", choices = choices) |
| }) |
| |
| get_pitch_profile <- function(pitcher_id, pg) { |
| arsenal_profiles %>% |
| filter(pitcher == pitcher_id, pitch_group == pg) %>% |
| slice(1) |
| } |
| |
| make_zone_pred <- function(pitch2_prof, prev_scenario, timing_resid, prev_desc) { |
| grid <- expand.grid( |
| plate_x = seq(-1.5, 1.5, length.out = 50), |
| plate_z = seq(1, 4, length.out = 50) |
| ) |
| |
| pred_data <- grid %>% |
| mutate( |
| release_speed = pitch2_prof$release_speed, |
| pfx_x = pitch2_prof$pfx_x, |
| pfx_z = pitch2_prof$pfx_z, |
| arm_angle = pitch2_prof$arm_angle, |
| release_pos_x = pitch2_prof$release_pos_x, |
| release_pos_z = pitch2_prof$release_pos_z, |
| release_extension = pitch2_prof$release_extension, |
| pfxz_diff = pitch2_prof$pfxz_diff, |
| primary_velo_diff = pitch2_prof$primary_velo_diff, |
| sz_top = 3.5, sz_bot = 1.5, |
| p_throws = "R", stand = "R", |
| prev_velocity = prev_scenario$prev_velocity, |
| prev_plate_x = prev_scenario$prev_plate_x, |
| prev_plate_z = prev_scenario$prev_plate_z, |
| velo_diff = prev_scenario$prev_velocity - pitch2_prof$release_speed, |
| plate_x_diff = prev_scenario$prev_plate_x - plate_x, |
| plate_z_diff = prev_scenario$prev_plate_z - plate_z, |
| pfx_x_diff = 0, pfx_z_diff = 0, |
| prev_y_residual = timing_resid, |
| prev_description = prev_desc |
| ) |
| |
| grid$run_value <- predict_rv(pred_data) |
| grid |
| } |
| |
| results <- reactiveValues(grids = NULL, arsenal = NULL) |
| |
| observeEvent(input$generate, { |
| req(input$pitcher_select, input$pitch1_type) |
| |
| available <- arsenal_profiles %>% |
| filter(pitcher == input$pitcher_select) %>% |
| pull(pitch_group) |
| |
| pitch1_prof <- get_pitch_profile(input$pitcher_select, input$pitch1_type) |
| zone_row <- zone_centers %>% filter(zone == as.numeric(input$pitch1_zone)) |
| |
| prev_scenario <- list( |
| prev_velocity = pitch1_prof$release_speed, |
| prev_plate_x = zone_row$plate_x, |
| prev_plate_z = zone_row$plate_z |
| ) |
| |
| all_grids <- list() |
| for (pg in available) { |
| prof <- get_pitch_profile(input$pitcher_select, pg) |
| grid <- make_zone_pred(prof, prev_scenario, input$timing_resid, input$pitch1_result) |
| grid$pitch2 <- pg |
| grid$pitch2_label <- pitch_group_labels[pg] |
| grid$velo <- round(prof$release_speed, 1) |
| all_grids[[pg]] <- grid |
| } |
| |
| results$grids <- bind_rows(all_grids) |
| results$prev_scenario <- prev_scenario |
| results$available <- available |
| |
| results$arsenal <- arsenal_profiles %>% |
| filter(pitcher == input$pitcher_select) %>% |
| mutate(pitch_label = pitch_group_labels[pitch_group]) %>% |
| select(pitch_label, release_speed, pfx_x, pfx_z, n) %>% |
| mutate(release_speed = round(release_speed, 1), |
| pfx_x = round(pfx_x, 1), |
| pfx_z = round(pfx_z, 1)) |
| }) |
| |
| output$scenario_description <- renderUI({ |
| req(input$pitcher_select, input$pitch1_type) |
| pitcher_name <- valid_pitchers$player_name[valid_pitchers$pitcher == input$pitcher_select] |
| zone_label <- zone_centers$zone_label[zone_centers$zone == as.numeric(input$pitch1_zone)] |
| pitch1_label <- pitch_group_labels[input$pitch1_type] |
| |
| result_label <- case_when( |
| input$pitch1_result == "foul" ~ "Foul Ball", |
| input$pitch1_result == "swinging_strike" ~ "Swinging Strike", |
| input$pitch1_result == "foul_tip" ~ "Foul Tip" |
| ) |
| |
| timing_label <- case_when( |
| input$timing_resid < -5 ~ paste0("Late (", input$timing_resid, " inches)"), |
| input$timing_resid > 5 ~ paste0("Early (+", input$timing_resid, " inches)"), |
| TRUE ~ "On Time" |
| ) |
| |
| tags$div( |
| tags$h4(style = "margin: 0; color: #1B3A5C; font-weight: 700;", pitcher_name), |
| tags$p(style = "margin: 4px 0; color: #555; font-size: 15px;", |
| paste0("Pitch #1: ", pitch1_label, " \u2192 Zone ", zone_label, |
| " | Result: ", result_label, " | Batter Timing: ", timing_label)), |
| tags$p(style = "margin: 0; color: #888; font-size: 13px;", |
| "Comparing expected run value across all follow-up pitch options.") |
| ) |
| }) |
| |
| output$comparison_grid <- renderPlot({ |
| req(results$grids) |
| |
| rv_range <- range(results$grids$run_value) |
| |
| results$grids %>% |
| mutate(facet_label = paste0(pitch2_label, "\n", velo, " mph")) %>% |
| ggplot(aes(x = plate_x, y = plate_z, fill = run_value)) + |
| geom_tile() + |
| scale_fill_gradient2(low = "#1f77b4", mid = "white", high = "#d62728", midpoint = 0, |
| limits = rv_range, name = "Expected\nRun Value") + |
| annotate("rect", xmin = -0.83, xmax = 0.83, ymin = 1.5, ymax = 3.5, |
| fill = NA, color = "black", linewidth = 1) + |
| annotate("point", |
| x = results$prev_scenario$prev_plate_x, |
| y = results$prev_scenario$prev_plate_z, |
| shape = 4, size = 4, color = "black", stroke = 2) + |
| facet_wrap(~facet_label, nrow = 1) + |
| coord_fixed() + |
| labs(x = "Horizontal Location (ft)\n\u2190 Inside | Outside \u2192 (RHH)", |
| y = "Pitch Height (ft)") + |
| theme_bw() + |
| theme(strip.text = element_text(face = "bold", size = 11)) |
| }) |
| |
| output$best_pitch_zone <- renderPlot({ |
| req(results$grids) |
| |
| best <- results$grids %>% |
| group_by(plate_x, plate_z) %>% |
| slice_min(run_value, n = 1, with_ties = FALSE) %>% |
| ungroup() |
| |
| ggplot(best, aes(x = plate_x, y = plate_z, fill = pitch2_label)) + |
| geom_tile() + |
| scale_fill_manual(values = pitch_colors, name = "Optimal Pitch") + |
| annotate("rect", xmin = -0.83, xmax = 0.83, ymin = 1.5, ymax = 3.5, |
| fill = NA, color = "black", linewidth = 1) + |
| annotate("point", |
| x = results$prev_scenario$prev_plate_x, |
| y = results$prev_scenario$prev_plate_z, |
| shape = 4, size = 4, color = "white", stroke = 2) + |
| coord_fixed() + |
| labs(x = "Horizontal Location (ft)\n\u2190 Inside | Outside \u2192 (RHH)", |
| y = "Pitch Height (ft)") + |
| theme_bw() + |
| theme(legend.position = "bottom", |
| legend.title = element_text(face = "bold")) |
| }) |
| |
| output$zone_diagram <- renderPlot({ |
| req(input$pitch1_zone) |
| selected <- as.numeric(input$pitch1_zone) |
| |
| ggplot() + |
| geom_rect(aes(xmin = -0.83, xmax = 0.83, ymin = 1.5, ymax = 3.5), |
| fill = NA, color = "black", linewidth = 1) + |
| geom_segment(aes(x = -0.83 + (1.66/3), xend = -0.83 + (1.66/3), y = 1.5, yend = 3.5), |
| color = "gray70") + |
| geom_segment(aes(x = -0.83 + 2*(1.66/3), xend = -0.83 + 2*(1.66/3), y = 1.5, yend = 3.5), |
| color = "gray70") + |
| geom_segment(aes(x = -0.83, xend = 0.83, y = 1.5 + (2/3), yend = 1.5 + (2/3)), |
| color = "gray70") + |
| geom_segment(aes(x = -0.83, xend = 0.83, y = 1.5 + 2*(2/3), yend = 1.5 + 2*(2/3)), |
| color = "gray70") + |
| geom_text(data = zone_centers, |
| aes(x = plate_x, y = plate_z, label = zone_label), |
| size = 3.5, |
| color = ifelse(zone_centers$zone == selected, "#d62728", "gray50"), |
| fontface = ifelse(zone_centers$zone == selected, "bold", "plain")) + |
| annotate("text", x = 0, y = 3.7, label = "Catcher's View (RHH)", |
| size = 3, color = "gray50", fontface = "italic") + |
| coord_fixed(xlim = c(-1.5, 1.5), ylim = c(1.2, 3.9)) + |
| labs(x = NULL, y = NULL) + |
| theme_bw() + |
| theme(axis.text = element_blank(), |
| axis.ticks = element_blank(), |
| panel.grid = element_blank()) |
| }) |
| |
| output$arsenal_table <- render_gt({ |
| req(results$arsenal) |
| results$arsenal %>% |
| mutate(pfx_x = pfx_x * 12, pfx_z = pfx_z * 12) %>% |
| gt() %>% |
| cols_label( |
| pitch_label = "Pitch", |
| release_speed = "Velocity", |
| pfx_x = "Horizontal Break", |
| pfx_z = "Induced Vertical Break", |
| n = "Pitches Thrown" |
| ) %>% |
| fmt_number(columns = c(release_speed), decimals = 1, pattern = "{x} mph") %>% |
| fmt_number(columns = c(pfx_x, pfx_z), decimals = 1, pattern = "{x} in") %>% |
| fmt_number(columns = n, decimals = 0, use_seps = TRUE) %>% |
| tab_options( |
| table.font.size = 12, |
| column_labels.font.weight = "bold" |
| ) |
| }) |
| } |
|
|
| shinyApp(ui, server) |
|
|
