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| { | |
| "version": "v2_expanded_lineup_flask_2026", | |
| "created_for": "WorldCup Predictor V2 candidate", | |
| "v1_freeze": { | |
| "known_prediction_examples": "data/static/known_prediction_examples.csv", | |
| "stabilization_plan": "docs/v1_stabilization_plan.md", | |
| "player_strength_source": "StatsBomb Open Data derived lagged ratings", | |
| "ea_fc_status": "not used in V1; proprietary/game-derived source to evaluate later" | |
| }, | |
| "position_aware_lineup_model": { | |
| "artifact": "lineup_result_model.joblib", | |
| "source_experiment": "models/expanded_afcon_lineups/expanded_lineup", | |
| "training_rows": 165, | |
| "validation_rows": 17, | |
| "test_rows": 194, | |
| "test_period": "2022-11-20 to 2024-07-15", | |
| "activation": "only rows where both home_lineup_available and away_lineup_available are true", | |
| "team_result_log_loss": 1.394266, | |
| "lineup_result_log_loss": 1.316248, | |
| "team_result_brier_score": 0.250588, | |
| "lineup_result_brier_score": 0.23676 | |
| }, | |
| "result_models": { | |
| "training_window": "2010+", | |
| "split_dir": "data/processed/training/expanded_afcon_lineups/expanded_fixed_test_splits/from_2010_test_2025-03-25", | |
| "source_experiment": "models/expanded_afcon_lineups/expanded_fixed_test/from_2010_test_2025-03-25", | |
| "artifacts": [ | |
| "team_result_model.joblib", | |
| "team_market_result_model.joblib", | |
| "meta_result_model.joblib", | |
| "lineup_result_model.joblib", | |
| "team_plus_lineup_full_train.joblib" | |
| ], | |
| "xgboost_params": { | |
| "n_estimators": 1800, | |
| "max_depth": 3, | |
| "learning_rate": 0.01, | |
| "subsample": 0.85, | |
| "colsample_bytree": 0.85, | |
| "min_child_weight": 3, | |
| "gamma": 0.1, | |
| "reg_alpha": 0.05, | |
| "reg_lambda": 2.0 | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "score_model": { | |
| "training_window": "2010+", | |
| "split_dir": "data/processed/training/expanded_afcon_lineups/expanded_fixed_test_splits/from_2010_test_2025-03-25", | |
| "source_experiment": "models/expanded_afcon_lineups/expanded_fixed_test/from_2010_test_2025-03-25", | |
| "artifact": "score_model.joblib", | |
| "xgboost_params": { | |
| "n_estimators": 1200, | |
| "max_depth": 2, | |
| "learning_rate": 0.01, | |
| "subsample": 0.8, | |
| "colsample_bytree": 0.8, | |
| "min_child_weight": 6, | |
| "gamma": 0.3, | |
| "reg_alpha": 0.15, | |
| "reg_lambda": 5.0 | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "lineup_score_model": { | |
| "artifact": "lineup_score_model.joblib", | |
| "source_experiment": "models/lineup_score_comparison", | |
| "activation": "only rows where both home_lineup_available and away_lineup_available are true", | |
| "training_rows": 107, | |
| "validation_rows": 19, | |
| "test_rows": 194, | |
| "team_score_combined_goal_mae": 0.93446, | |
| "lineup_score_combined_goal_mae": 0.91033, | |
| "team_score_exact_score_accuracy": 0.092784, | |
| "lineup_score_exact_score_accuracy": 0.123711, | |
| "team_score_top_3_scoreline_hit_rate": 0.319588, | |
| "lineup_score_top_3_scoreline_hit_rate": 0.324742, | |
| "team_scoreline_result_log_loss": 1.107484, | |
| "lineup_scoreline_result_log_loss": 1.059566 | |
| }, | |
| "fixed_test_evaluation": { | |
| "test_period": "2025-03-25 to 2026-03-31", | |
| "rows": 434, | |
| "accuracy": 0.6566820276497696, | |
| "log_loss": 0.7716182532960926, | |
| "brier_score": 0.14924871854473584, | |
| "home_goal_mae": 1.0290894328449178, | |
| "away_goal_mae": 0.9053750600202293, | |
| "exact_score_accuracy": 0.11981566820276497, | |
| "top_3_scoreline_hit_rate": 0.391705069124424, | |
| "scoreline_result_log_loss": 0.76734835432292 | |
| }, | |
| "expanded_dataset": { | |
| "matches_path": "data/processed/training/expanded_afcon_lineups/training_pool_1990_2026_plus_statsbomb_matches.csv", | |
| "enriched_path": "data/processed/training/expanded_afcon_lineups/training_pool_matches_enriched_expanded_afcon_lineups.csv", | |
| "rows": 6978, | |
| "both_team_lineup_rows": 320, | |
| "statsbomb_lineup_competitions": ["AFCON", "Copa America", "UEFA Euro", "World Cup"], | |
| "comparison_report": "models/expanded_afcon_lineups/expanded_afcon_lineup_comparison.json" | |
| }, | |
| "known_limitations": [ | |
| "Draw prediction remains weak.", | |
| "Market probabilities dominate when odds are available.", | |
| "Lineup model path exists, but current lineup coverage is not strong enough for final automatic promotion.", | |
| "Free bulk qualifier lineup coverage is not available locally.", | |
| "Scorelines are probability distributions, not high-confidence exact forecasts." | |
| ] | |
| } | |