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# **Executive Brief — Decision Kernel Lite**
## **Why This Exists**
Most decisions fail not because of missing data, but because uncertainty is handled informally:
* probabilities are debated, not modeled
* downside risk is underweighted
* justifications are retrospective, not structured
Decision Kernel Lite provides a **simple, auditable mechanism** to choose actions when outcomes are uncertain and costs are asymmetric.
It replaces intuition-driven debate with **explicit trade-offs**.
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## **What the System Does**
Decision Kernel Lite takes four inputs:
* a set of **actions**
* a set of plausible **scenarios**
* **probabilities** for each scenario
* a **loss matrix** describing consequences
From these, it produces:
* a **single recommended action**
* a clear justification using multiple risk lenses
* a **Decision Card** suitable for executive review
No forecasting.
No optimization.
Only the decision.
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## **The Three Risk Lenses**
The system evaluates every action using three complementary rules.
### **1. Expected Loss — “What works best on average?”**
* Optimizes average outcome
* Appropriate when probabilities are trusted
* Best for repeatable decisions
This is the default economic lens.
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### **2. Minimax Regret — “What will I regret least?”**
* Optimizes post-hoc defensibility
* Appropriate when probabilities are unreliable or disputed
* Best for one-shot, high-accountability decisions
This lens protects decision-makers from hindsight criticism.
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### **3. CVaR — “How bad are the bad cases?”**
* Focuses on tail risk
* Appropriate when rare failures are unacceptable
* Best for safety, financial ruin, or irreversible outcomes
This lens prioritizes survival over average performance.
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## **How the Final Decision Is Chosen**
* All three lenses are computed simultaneously
* A **primary decision rule** is selected explicitly
* A heuristic recommendation is provided, but can be overridden
This ensures:
* transparency
* governance
* accountability
There is no “black box” choice.
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## **What the Output Looks Like**
The system produces a **Decision Card** summarizing:
* the recommended action
* the assumptions used
* how each rule evaluated the options
* why the final rule was chosen
This artifact can be:
* pasted into an executive memo
* included in a slide deck
* stored for audit and review
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## **What Makes This Different**
Decision Kernel Lite does **not** attempt to:
* predict demand
* estimate probabilities automatically
* optimize operational parameters
Its value lies in **decision clarity**, not model sophistication.
It sits between:
* analytics (what might happen)
* and operations (what to do)
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## **Typical Use Cases**
* strategic one-off choices
* pricing or investment decisions with asymmetric downside
* contract or supplier selection
* policy or governance decisions
* scenario planning workshops
Any situation where:
> “We must decide, even though we are uncertain.”
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## **Business Value**
Organizations using structured decision kernels achieve:
* faster decision cycles
* fewer unexamined assumptions
* reduced post-decision conflict
* clearer accountability
Most importantly:
> Decisions become explainable, not just executable.
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## **Positioning**
Decision Kernel Lite is a **foundational decision layer**.
It can be:
* used standalone
* embedded into larger planning systems
* integrated downstream of forecasting or upstream of optimization
It is deliberately minimal, fast, and domain-agnostic.
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## **Bottom Line**
Decision Kernel Lite does not promise certainty.
It delivers something more valuable:
> **Clarity about what you are choosing — and why — under uncertainty.**
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