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import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import plotly.express as px
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
from datetime import datetime
from py_vollib.black_scholes.greeks import analytical
st.set_page_config(layout="wide")
st.sidebar.title("Input Parameters")
with st.sidebar.expander("How to Use", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
- 1. **Input Ticker Symbol**: Enter the stock ticker symbol in the sidebar (e.g., `AAPL` for Apple Inc.).
- 2. **Analyze**: Click the "Analyze" button to fetch and process the options data.
- 3. **Visualize**: View the visualizations and interpretations of the options data to understand market sentiment.
""")
st.title("Options Sentiment Analysis Tool")
st.markdown("""
This tool analyzes options data for a given stock ticker symbol to gauge market sentiment using implied volatility and infer the market's expectations of future price movements. IV represents the market's forecast of a likely movement in a security's price. High implied volatility often signals uncertainty or expected volatility, while comparing call and put options can provide insights into bullish or bearish sentiments.
""")
with st.expander("Understanding Implied Volatility:", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""Here’s a simplified representation of how implied volatility is calculated. """)
st.latex(r'''
IV = \frac{Market \, Price \, of \, Option - Intrinsic \, Value}{Time \, Value \, of \, Money \, + \, Volatility \, Expectation}
''')
st.markdown("""
In practice, implied volatility is derived using the Black-Scholes formula, based on current option prices. The formula calculates the theoretical value of options, and by inputting the current market prices, we can solve for the implied volatility.
""")
with st.expander("Visualizations:", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
### Visualizations:
- **Volatility Smile**: Displays the implied volatility of call and put options across different strike prices and expiration dates, providing insights into expected price volatility.
- **Open Interest**: Shows the open interest of call and put options across different strike prices, indicating the level of trading activity and interest.
- **Volume Analysis**: Presents the trading volume of call and put options across different strike prices, reflecting the market's trading activity and interest.
- **3D Scatter Plot**:
- **Puts**: Visualizes the implied volatility of put options in a 3D view, categorized by expiration date, to identify patterns and sentiment shifts.
- **Calls**: Visualizes the implied volatility of call options in a 3D view, categorized by expiration date, to identify patterns and sentiment shifts.
- **Historical Implied Volatility (IV)**: Tracks the historical implied volatility over a specified period, helping to understand the volatility trends and current volatility level compared to the past.
- **Put/Call Ratio**: Calculates the ratio of the trading volume of put options to call options, indicating overall market sentiment (bullish or bearish).
- **Options Greeks Analysis**: Assesses the Greeks (Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega) of call and put options, providing insights into the sensitivity of options prices to various factors.
- **Sentiment Score**: Combines implied volatility and volume data to generate a sentiment score, indicating whether the market sentiment is bullish or bearish.
""")
def get_options_data(ticker):
asset = yf.Ticker(ticker)
exp_dates = asset.options
if not exp_dates:
st.error(f"No options data available for ticker {ticker}.")
return None, None
recent_price = asset.history(period="1d")["Close"].iloc[-1]
options_data = []
for date in exp_dates:
calls = asset.option_chain(date).calls
puts = asset.option_chain(date).puts
calls["expiration"] = date
puts["expiration"] = date
calls["type"] = "call"
puts["type"] = "put"
data = pd.concat([calls, puts])
options_data.append(data)
if not options_data:
st.error(f"No valid options data available for ticker {ticker}.")
return None, None
options_data = pd.concat(options_data)
options_data = options_data[options_data["strike"].between(recent_price * 0.9, recent_price * 1.1)]
options_data["implied_volatility"] = options_data["impliedVolatility"] * 100
return options_data, recent_price
def plot_volatility_smile(options_data, recent_price, ticker):
calls_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "call"]
puts_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "put"]
expirations = options_data['expiration'].unique()
color_map_2d = px.colors.qualitative.Prism
fig = make_subplots(rows=1, cols=2, subplot_titles=["Calls", "Puts"], shared_yaxes=True)
for exp, color in zip(expirations, color_map_2d):
exp_calls = calls_data[calls_data["expiration"] == exp]
exp_puts = puts_data[puts_data["expiration"] == exp]
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=exp_calls["strike"], y=exp_calls["implied_volatility"], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color=color), name=exp), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=exp_puts["strike"], y=exp_puts["implied_volatility"], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color=color), name=exp, showlegend=False), row=1, col=2)
avg_iv_by_strike_calls = calls_data.groupby("strike")["implied_volatility"].mean()
avg_iv_by_strike_puts = puts_data.groupby("strike")["implied_volatility"].mean()
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=avg_iv_by_strike_calls.index, y=avg_iv_by_strike_calls.values, mode='lines',
line=dict(color='white', dash='dash'), name='Avg. IV by Strike (Calls)'), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=avg_iv_by_strike_puts.index, y=avg_iv_by_strike_puts.values, mode='lines',
line=dict(color='white', dash='dash'), name='Avg. IV by Strike (Puts)', showlegend=False), row=1, col=2)
overall_avg_iv_calls = calls_data["implied_volatility"].mean()
overall_avg_iv_puts = puts_data["implied_volatility"].mean()
fig.add_hline(y=overall_avg_iv_calls, line=dict(color='gray', dash='dash'),
annotation_text=f"Overall Avg. IV (Calls): {overall_avg_iv_calls:.2f}%",
row=1, col=1)
fig.add_hline(y=overall_avg_iv_puts, line=dict(color='gray', dash='dash'),
annotation_text=f"Overall Avg. IV (Puts): {overall_avg_iv_puts:.2f}%",
row=1, col=2)
fig.update_layout(title=f"{ticker} Volatility Smile - Current Price: {recent_price:.2f}", showlegend=True, legend_title_text='Expiration Date')
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Strike Price")
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Implied Volatility (%)")
st.plotly_chart(fig)
return overall_avg_iv_calls, overall_avg_iv_puts, avg_iv_by_strike_calls, avg_iv_by_strike_puts, expirations
def interpret_volatility_smile(ticker, overall_avg_iv_calls, overall_avg_iv_puts, avg_iv_by_strike_calls, avg_iv_by_strike_puts):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Volatility Smile:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility for call options is {overall_avg_iv_calls:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility for put options is {overall_avg_iv_puts:.2f}%.\n"
if avg_iv_by_strike_calls.var() > 0.1:
interpretation += "- The call options exhibit a noticeable 'volatility smile,' indicating varying implied volatility across different strike prices.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The call options do not show a significant 'volatility smile,' suggesting more stable implied volatility across strike prices.\n"
if avg_iv_by_strike_puts.var() > 0.1:
interpretation += "- The put options exhibit a noticeable 'volatility smile,' indicating varying implied volatility across different strike prices.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The put options do not show a significant 'volatility smile,' suggesting more stable implied volatility across strike prices.\n"
market_sentiment = "bullish" if overall_avg_iv_calls > overall_avg_iv_puts else "bearish"
interpretation += f"- The overall market sentiment is {market_sentiment}, inferred from the average implied volatility of calls and puts.\n"
if overall_avg_iv_calls > overall_avg_iv_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher implied volatility in call options suggests that traders expect upward price movements or higher uncertainty in the stock price.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher implied volatility in put options suggests that traders expect downward price movements or higher uncertainty in the stock price.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def plot_open_interest(options_data, recent_price, ticker):
calls_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "call"]
puts_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "put"]
expirations = options_data['expiration'].unique()
color_map_2d = px.colors.qualitative.Prism
fig = make_subplots(rows=1, cols=2, subplot_titles=["Calls Open Interest", "Puts Open Interest"], shared_yaxes=True)
for exp, color in zip(expirations, color_map_2d):
exp_calls = calls_data[calls_data["expiration"] == exp]
exp_puts = puts_data[puts_data["expiration"] == exp]
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=exp_calls["strike"], y=exp_calls["openInterest"], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color=color), name=exp), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=exp_puts["strike"], y=exp_puts["openInterest"], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color=color), name=exp, showlegend=False), row=1, col=2)
overall_avg_oi_calls = calls_data["openInterest"].mean()
overall_avg_oi_puts = puts_data["openInterest"].mean()
fig.update_layout(title=f"{ticker} Open Interest by Strike - Current Price: {recent_price:.2f}", showlegend=True, legend_title_text='Expiration Date')
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Strike Price")
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Open Interest")
st.plotly_chart(fig)
return overall_avg_oi_calls, overall_avg_oi_puts, calls_data, puts_data
def interpret_open_interest(ticker, overall_avg_oi_calls, overall_avg_oi_puts, calls_data, puts_data):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Open Interest:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average open interest for call options is {overall_avg_oi_calls:.2f} contracts.\n"
interpretation += f"- The average open interest for put options is {overall_avg_oi_puts:.2f} contracts.\n"
if overall_avg_oi_calls > overall_avg_oi_puts:
interpretation += "- Call options have higher average open interest, indicating higher trading activity and interest in calls.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- Put options have higher average open interest, indicating higher trading activity and interest in puts.\n"
highest_oi_call = calls_data.loc[calls_data['openInterest'].idxmax()]
highest_oi_put = puts_data.loc[puts_data['openInterest'].idxmax()]
interpretation += f"- The strike price with the highest open interest for calls is {highest_oi_call['strike']} with {highest_oi_call['openInterest']} contracts.\n"
interpretation += f"- The strike price with the highest open interest for puts is {highest_oi_put['strike']} with {highest_oi_put['openInterest']} contracts.\n"
if overall_avg_oi_calls > overall_avg_oi_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher open interest in call options suggests that traders might be anticipating upward price movements.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher open interest in put options suggests that traders might be anticipating downward price movements.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def plot_volume(options_data, recent_price, ticker):
calls_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "call"]
puts_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "put"]
expirations = options_data['expiration'].unique()
color_map_2d = px.colors.qualitative.Prism
fig = make_subplots(rows=1, cols=2, subplot_titles=["Calls Volume", "Puts Volume"], shared_yaxes=True)
for exp, color in zip(expirations, color_map_2d):
exp_calls = calls_data[calls_data["expiration"] == exp]
exp_puts = puts_data[puts_data["expiration"] == exp]
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=exp_calls["strike"], y=exp_calls["volume"], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color=color), name=exp), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=exp_puts["strike"], y=exp_puts["volume"], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color=color), name=exp, showlegend=False), row=1, col=2)
overall_avg_vol_calls = calls_data["volume"].mean()
overall_avg_vol_puts = puts_data["volume"].mean()
fig.update_layout(title=f"{ticker} Volume by Strike - Current Price: {recent_price:.2f}", showlegend=True, legend_title_text='Expiration Date')
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Strike Price")
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Volume")
st.plotly_chart(fig)
return overall_avg_vol_calls, overall_avg_vol_puts, calls_data, puts_data
def interpret_volume(ticker, overall_avg_vol_calls, overall_avg_vol_puts, calls_data, puts_data):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Volume Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average volume for call options is {overall_avg_vol_calls:.2f} contracts.\n"
interpretation += f"- The average volume for put options is {overall_avg_vol_puts:.2f} contracts.\n"
if overall_avg_vol_calls > overall_avg_vol_puts:
interpretation += "- Call options have higher average volume, indicating higher trading activity and interest in calls.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- Put options have higher average volume, indicating higher trading activity and interest in puts.\n"
highest_vol_call = calls_data.loc[calls_data['volume'].idxmax()]
highest_vol_put = puts_data.loc[puts_data['volume'].idxmax()]
interpretation += f"- The strike price with the highest volume for calls is {highest_vol_call['strike']} with {highest_vol_call['volume']} contracts.\n"
interpretation += f"- The strike price with the highest volume for puts is {highest_vol_put['strike']} with {highest_vol_put['volume']} contracts.\n"
if overall_avg_vol_calls > overall_avg_vol_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher volume in call options suggests that traders are more actively trading calls, possibly anticipating upward price movements.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher volume in put options suggests that traders are more actively trading puts, possibly anticipating downward price movements.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def plot_3d_puts_implied_volatility(options_data, ticker):
puts_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "put"]
expirations = options_data['expiration'].unique()
color_map_3d = {exp: color for exp, color in zip(expirations, px.colors.qualitative.Prism)}
fig1 = px.scatter_3d(puts_data, x='strike', y='expiration', z='implied_volatility',
color='expiration', color_discrete_map=color_map_3d,
title=f'{ticker} Put Options Implied Volatility',
labels={'strike': 'Strike Price', 'expiration': 'Expiration Date', 'implied_volatility': 'Implied Volatility (%)'},
hover_name='expiration')
st.plotly_chart(fig1)
return puts_data
def interpret_3d_puts_implied_volatility(ticker, puts_data):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Put Options Implied Volatility (3D Scatter Plot):**\n"
overall_avg_iv_puts = puts_data["implied_volatility"].mean()
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility for put options is {overall_avg_iv_puts:.2f}%.\n"
highest_iv_put_idx = puts_data['implied_volatility'].idxmax()
highest_iv_put = puts_data.loc[highest_iv_put_idx]
strike_price = highest_iv_put['strike']
implied_volatility = highest_iv_put['implied_volatility']
expiration_date = highest_iv_put['expiration']
if isinstance(strike_price, pd.Series):
strike_price = strike_price.iloc[0]
if isinstance(implied_volatility, pd.Series):
implied_volatility = implied_volatility.iloc[0]
if isinstance(expiration_date, pd.Series):
expiration_date = expiration_date.iloc[0]
interpretation += f"- The strike price with the highest implied volatility for puts is {strike_price} with {implied_volatility:.2f}% implied volatility, expiring on {expiration_date}.\n"
interpretation += "\n**Implied Volatility by Expiration Dates:**\n"
for exp in puts_data['expiration'].unique():
exp_data = puts_data[puts_data['expiration'] == exp]
avg_iv_exp = exp_data['implied_volatility'].mean()
interpretation += f"- Average IV for puts expiring on {exp}: {avg_iv_exp:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += "\n**Implied Volatility by Strike Prices:**\n"
strike_price_bins = pd.cut(puts_data['strike'], bins=5)
grouped_strike_data = puts_data.groupby(strike_price_bins)['implied_volatility'].mean()
for interval, avg_iv_strike in grouped_strike_data.items():
interpretation += f"- Average IV for puts with strike prices in range {interval}: {avg_iv_strike:.2f}%.\n"
iv_variability = puts_data['implied_volatility'].std()
if iv_variability > 10:
interpretation += "\n- There is significant variability in implied volatility across different strike prices and expiration dates, indicating diverse market expectations and uncertainty.\n"
else:
interpretation += "\n- The implied volatility is relatively stable across different strike prices and expiration dates, indicating consistent market expectations.\n"
interpretation += "\n**Overall Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average IV of {overall_avg_iv_puts:.2f}% suggests a certain level of expected volatility in the underlying asset. "
interpretation += f"The highest IV of {implied_volatility:.2f}% at the strike price of {strike_price} and expiration date of {expiration_date} indicates significant uncertainty or expected price movement around that particular strike and time.\n"
interpretation += "- Expiration dates and strike prices both show variations in IV, suggesting that traders' expectations of volatility differ based on the specific terms of the options. "
interpretation += "Higher IV in shorter expirations might indicate expected near-term volatility, while longer expirations with lower IV can suggest stability over time.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def plot_3d_calls_implied_volatility(options_data, ticker):
calls_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "call"]
expirations = options_data['expiration'].unique()
color_map_3d = {exp: color for exp, color in zip(expirations, px.colors.qualitative.Prism)}
fig2 = px.scatter_3d(calls_data, x='strike', y='expiration', z='implied_volatility',
color='expiration', color_discrete_map=color_map_3d,
title=f'{ticker} Call Options Implied Volatility',
labels={'strike': 'Strike Price', 'expiration': 'Expiration Date', 'implied_volatility': 'Implied Volatility (%)'},
hover_name='expiration')
st.plotly_chart(fig2)
return calls_data
def interpret_3d_calls_implied_volatility(ticker, calls_data):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Call Options Implied Volatility (3D Scatter Plot):**\n"
overall_avg_iv_calls = calls_data["implied_volatility"].mean()
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility for call options is {overall_avg_iv_calls:.2f}%.\n"
highest_iv_call_idx = calls_data['implied_volatility'].idxmax()
highest_iv_call = calls_data.loc[highest_iv_call_idx]
strike_price = highest_iv_call['strike']
implied_volatility = highest_iv_call['implied_volatility']
expiration_date = highest_iv_call['expiration']
if isinstance(strike_price, pd.Series):
strike_price = strike_price.iloc[0]
if isinstance(implied_volatility, pd.Series):
implied_volatility = implied_volatility.iloc[0]
if isinstance(expiration_date, pd.Series):
expiration_date = expiration_date.iloc[0]
interpretation += f"- The strike price with the highest implied volatility for calls is {strike_price} with {implied_volatility:.2f}% implied volatility, expiring on {expiration_date}.\n"
interpretation += "\n**Implied Volatility by Expiration Dates:**\n"
for exp in calls_data['expiration'].unique():
exp_data = calls_data[calls_data['expiration'] == exp]
avg_iv_exp = exp_data['implied_volatility'].mean()
interpretation += f"- Average IV for calls expiring on {exp}: {avg_iv_exp:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += "\n**Implied Volatility by Strike Prices:**\n"
strike_price_bins = pd.cut(calls_data['strike'], bins=5)
grouped_strike_data = calls_data.groupby(strike_price_bins)['implied_volatility'].mean()
for interval, avg_iv_strike in grouped_strike_data.items():
interpretation += f"- Average IV for calls with strike prices in range {interval}: {avg_iv_strike:.2f}%.\n"
iv_variability = calls_data['implied_volatility'].std()
if iv_variability > 10:
interpretation += "\n- There is significant variability in implied volatility across different strike prices and expiration dates, indicating diverse market expectations and uncertainty.\n"
else:
interpretation += "\n- The implied volatility is relatively stable across different strike prices and expiration dates, indicating consistent market expectations.\n"
interpretation += "\n**Overall Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average IV of {overall_avg_iv_calls:.2f}% suggests a certain level of expected volatility in the underlying asset. "
interpretation += f"The highest IV of {implied_volatility:.2f}% at the strike price of {strike_price} and expiration date of {expiration_date} indicates significant uncertainty or expected price movement around that particular strike and time.\n"
interpretation += "- Expiration dates and strike prices both show variations in IV, suggesting that traders' expectations of volatility differ based on the specific terms of the options. "
interpretation += "Higher IV in shorter expirations might indicate expected near-term volatility, while longer expirations with lower IV can suggest stability over time.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def plot_historical_iv(ticker, start_date):
end_date = datetime.today().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
hist_data = yf.download(ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date)
hist_data['IV'] = (hist_data['High'] - hist_data['Low']) / hist_data['Low'] * 100
fig = go.Figure()
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=hist_data.index, y=hist_data['IV'], mode='lines', name='Historical IV'))
current_iv = hist_data['IV'].iloc[-1]
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=[hist_data.index[-1]], y=[current_iv], mode='markers', name='Current IV',
marker=dict(color='red', size=10)))
fig.update_layout(
title=f"{ticker} Historical Implied Volatility",
xaxis_title="Date",
yaxis_title="Implied Volatility (%)",
legend_title="Legend"
)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
return hist_data, current_iv
def interpret_historical_iv(ticker, historical_iv, current_iv):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Historical Implied Volatility:**\n"
avg_iv = historical_iv["IV"].mean()
max_iv = historical_iv["IV"].max()
min_iv = historical_iv["IV"].min()
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility over the period is {avg_iv:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The maximum implied volatility recorded was {max_iv:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The minimum implied volatility recorded was {min_iv:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The current implied volatility is {current_iv:.2f}%.\n"
historical_iv['Year'] = historical_iv.index.year
avg_iv_by_year = historical_iv.groupby('Year')['IV'].mean()
interpretation += "\n**Average Implied Volatility by Year:**\n"
for year, avg_iv in avg_iv_by_year.items():
interpretation += f"- {year}: {avg_iv:.2f}%.\n"
iv_variability = historical_iv['IV'].std()
interpretation += f"\n- The standard deviation of implied volatility over the period is {iv_variability:.2f}, indicating {'high' if iv_variability > 10 else 'low'} variability in implied volatility.\n"
recent_trend = "increased" if historical_iv['IV'].iloc[-1] > historical_iv['IV'].iloc[-30] else "decreased"
interpretation += f"\n- In the last 30 days, the implied volatility has {recent_trend} compared to the previous period.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def calculate_put_call_ratio(options_data):
calls_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "call"]
puts_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "put"]
total_puts = puts_data['volume'].sum()
total_calls = calls_data['volume'].sum()
put_call_ratio = total_puts / total_calls
st.write(f"Put/Call Ratio: {put_call_ratio:.2f}")
return total_puts, total_calls, put_call_ratio
def interpret_put_call_ratio(ticker, total_puts, total_calls, put_call_ratio):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Put/Call Ratio:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The Put/Call Ratio is {put_call_ratio:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f"- Total volume of puts: {total_puts}\n"
interpretation += f"- Total volume of calls: {total_calls}\n"
if put_call_ratio > 1:
interpretation += "- A Put/Call Ratio greater than 1 indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, as more puts are being traded relative to calls.\n"
elif put_call_ratio < 1:
interpretation += "- A Put/Call Ratio less than 1 indicates a bullish sentiment in the market, as more calls are being traded relative to puts.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- A Put/Call Ratio of 1 indicates a neutral sentiment in the market, with equal volumes of puts and calls being traded.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def calculate_greeks(option_type, S, K, T, r, sigma):
greeks = {}
try:
if option_type == "call":
flag = "c"
else:
flag = "p"
greeks['delta'] = analytical.delta(flag, S, K, T, r, sigma)
greeks['gamma'] = analytical.gamma(flag, S, K, T, r, sigma)
greeks['theta'] = analytical.theta(flag, S, K, T, r, sigma)
greeks['vega'] = analytical.vega(flag, S, K, T, r, sigma)
except Exception as e:
greeks = {'delta': np.nan, 'gamma': np.nan, 'theta': np.nan, 'vega': np.nan}
return greeks
def plot_greeks(options_data, recent_price, ticker):
r = 0.01
calls_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "call"].copy()
puts_data = options_data[options_data["type"] == "put"].copy()
for index, row in calls_data.iterrows():
T = (pd.to_datetime(row['expiration']) - pd.Timestamp.now()).days / 365.25
if T > 0 and row['impliedVolatility'] > 0:
greeks = calculate_greeks("call", recent_price, row['strike'], T, r, row['impliedVolatility'])
else:
greeks = {'delta': np.nan, 'gamma': np.nan, 'theta': np.nan, 'vega': np.nan}
for greek, value in greeks.items():
calls_data.at[index, greek] = value
for index, row in puts_data.iterrows():
T = (pd.to_datetime(row['expiration']) - pd.Timestamp.now()).days / 365.25
if T > 0 and row['impliedVolatility'] > 0:
greeks = calculate_greeks("put", recent_price, row['strike'], T, r, row['impliedVolatility'])
else:
greeks = {'delta': np.nan, 'gamma': np.nan, 'theta': np.nan, 'vega': np.nan}
for greek, value in greeks.items():
puts_data.at[index, greek] = value
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=2, subplot_titles=["Delta", "Gamma", "Theta", "Vega"], shared_yaxes=True)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=calls_data["strike"], y=calls_data["delta"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='blue'), name="Delta (Calls)"), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=puts_data["strike"], y=puts_data["delta"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='red'), name="Delta (Puts)"), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=calls_data["strike"], y=calls_data["gamma"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='blue'), name="Gamma (Calls)"), row=1, col=2)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=puts_data["strike"], y=puts_data["gamma"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='red'), name="Gamma (Puts)"), row=1, col=2)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=calls_data["strike"], y=calls_data["theta"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='blue'), name="Theta (Calls)"), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=puts_data["strike"], y=puts_data["theta"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='red'), name="Theta (Puts)"), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=calls_data["strike"], y=calls_data["vega"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='blue'), name="Vega (Calls)"), row=2, col=2)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=puts_data["strike"], y=puts_data["vega"], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='red'), name="Vega (Puts)"), row=2, col=2)
fig.update_layout(title=f"{ticker} Options Greeks by Strike - Current Price: {recent_price:.2f}", showlegend=True, legend_title_text='Options Type')
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Strike Price")
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Greeks Value")
st.plotly_chart(fig)
return calls_data, puts_data
def interpret_greeks(ticker, calls_data, puts_data):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Options Greeks:**\n"
avg_delta_calls = calls_data['delta'].mean()
avg_gamma_calls = calls_data['gamma'].mean()
avg_theta_calls = calls_data['theta'].mean()
avg_vega_calls = calls_data['vega'].mean()
avg_delta_puts = puts_data['delta'].mean()
avg_gamma_puts = puts_data['gamma'].mean()
avg_theta_puts = puts_data['theta'].mean()
avg_vega_puts = puts_data['vega'].mean()
interpretation += f"- **Delta Interpretation:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average delta for calls is {avg_delta_calls:.2f}. This indicates that on average, the call options' price changes by {avg_delta_calls:.2f} for a $1 change in the underlying stock price.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average delta for puts is {avg_delta_puts:.2f}. This indicates that on average, the put options' price changes by {avg_delta_puts:.2f} for a $1 change in the underlying stock price.\n\n"
interpretation += f"- **Gamma Interpretation:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average gamma for calls is {avg_gamma_calls:.2f}. This suggests that the delta of call options changes by {avg_gamma_calls:.2f} for a $1 change in the underlying stock price.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average gamma for puts is {avg_gamma_puts:.2f}. This suggests that the delta of put options changes by {avg_gamma_puts:.2f} for a $1 change in the underlying stock price.\n\n"
interpretation += f"- **Theta Interpretation:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average theta for calls is {avg_theta_calls:.2f}. This indicates that on average, the price of call options decreases by {avg_theta_calls:.2f} per day as time passes.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average theta for puts is {avg_theta_puts:.2f}. This indicates that on average, the price of put options decreases by {avg_theta_puts:.2f} per day as time passes.\n\n"
interpretation += f"- **Vega Interpretation:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average vega for calls is {avg_vega_calls:.2f}. This suggests that the price of call options changes by {avg_vega_calls:.2f} for a 1% change in the volatility of the underlying stock.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average vega for puts is {avg_vega_puts:.2f}. This suggests that the price of put options changes by {avg_vega_puts:.2f} for a 1% change in the volatility of the underlying stock.\n\n"
interpretation += "\n**Summary and Market Sentiment:**\n"
if avg_delta_calls > avg_delta_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher average delta for calls compared to puts indicates a bullish sentiment, as call options are more sensitive to upward movements in the stock price.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher average delta for puts compared to calls indicates a bearish sentiment, as put options are more sensitive to downward movements in the stock price.\n"
if avg_gamma_calls > avg_gamma_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher average gamma for calls suggests that the sensitivity of call options to the underlying stock price is higher, indicating potential for larger price swings.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher average gamma for puts suggests that the sensitivity of put options to the underlying stock price is higher, indicating potential for larger price swings.\n"
if avg_theta_calls < avg_theta_puts:
interpretation += "- The more negative average theta for calls indicates that call options lose value faster over time compared to puts, which may reflect higher time decay for bullish positions.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The more negative average theta for puts indicates that put options lose value faster over time compared to calls, which may reflect higher time decay for bearish positions.\n"
if avg_vega_calls > avg_vega_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher average vega for calls suggests that call options are more sensitive to changes in volatility, which can be beneficial in volatile markets for bullish strategies.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher average vega for puts suggests that put options are more sensitive to changes in volatility, which can be beneficial in volatile markets for bearish strategies.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def calculate_sentiment_score(options_data, high_iv_calls, low_iv_puts, total_calls, total_puts):
sentiment_score = (high_iv_calls - low_iv_puts) + (total_calls - total_puts) / (total_calls + total_puts)
sentiment_description = "Bullish" if sentiment_score > 0 else "Bearish"
st.write(f"Sentiment Score: {sentiment_score:.2f} ({sentiment_description})")
return sentiment_score, sentiment_description
def interpret_sentiment_score(ticker, sentiment_score, sentiment_description, high_iv_calls, low_iv_puts, total_calls, total_puts):
interpretation = f"**Interpretation of {ticker} Sentiment Score:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The sentiment score is {sentiment_score:.2f}, indicating a {sentiment_description} market sentiment.\n"
iv_diff = high_iv_calls - low_iv_puts
volume_diff = (total_calls - total_puts) / (total_calls + total_puts)
interpretation += f"- Contribution from Implied Volatility difference (high IV of calls - low IV of puts): {iv_diff:.2f}\n"
interpretation += f"- Contribution from Volume difference (total calls - total puts) / (total calls + total puts): {volume_diff:.2f}\n"
if sentiment_description == "Bullish":
interpretation += "- The bullish sentiment is driven by higher implied volatility in calls compared to puts, indicating expectations of upward price movements. Additionally, a higher volume of calls compared to puts suggests more traders are positioning for a rise in the stock price.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The bearish sentiment is driven by higher implied volatility in puts compared to calls, indicating expectations of downward price movements. Additionally, a higher volume of puts compared to calls suggests more traders are positioning for a decline in the stock price.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
def overall_interpretation(ticker,
overall_avg_iv_calls, overall_avg_iv_puts, avg_iv_by_strike_calls, avg_iv_by_strike_puts,
overall_avg_vol_calls, overall_avg_vol_puts, calls_data, puts_data,
historical_iv, current_iv,
put_call_ratio,
sentiment_score, sentiment_description, high_iv_calls, low_iv_puts, total_calls, total_puts,
avg_delta_calls, avg_delta_puts, avg_gamma_calls, avg_gamma_puts, avg_theta_calls, avg_theta_puts, avg_vega_calls, avg_vega_puts):
interpretation = f"**Overall Interpretation of {ticker} Market Sentiment and Conditions:**\n\n"
# Volatility Smile Interpretation
interpretation += f"**Volatility Smile Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility for call options is {overall_avg_iv_calls:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility for put options is {overall_avg_iv_puts:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The market shows {'a significant' if avg_iv_by_strike_calls.var() > 0.1 else 'a stable'} volatility smile for call options.\n"
interpretation += f"- The market shows {'a significant' if avg_iv_by_strike_puts.var() > 0.1 else 'a stable'} volatility smile for put options.\n"
interpretation += f"- The overall market sentiment from volatility is {'bullish' if overall_avg_iv_calls > overall_avg_iv_puts else 'bearish'}.\n\n"
# Volume Analysis Interpretation
interpretation += f"**Volume Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average volume for call options is {overall_avg_vol_calls:.2f} contracts.\n"
interpretation += f"- The average volume for put options is {overall_avg_vol_puts:.2f} contracts.\n"
interpretation += f"- The higher volume in {'call' if overall_avg_vol_calls > overall_avg_vol_puts else 'put'} options indicates higher trading activity and interest.\n"
highest_vol_call = calls_data.loc[calls_data['volume'].idxmax()]
highest_vol_put = puts_data.loc[puts_data['volume'].idxmax()]
interpretation += f"- The highest volume for calls is at strike {highest_vol_call['strike']} with {highest_vol_call['volume']} contracts.\n"
interpretation += f"- The highest volume for puts is at strike {highest_vol_put['strike']} with {highest_vol_put['volume']} contracts.\n\n"
# Historical IV Interpretation
avg_iv = historical_iv["IV"].mean()
max_iv = historical_iv["IV"].max()
min_iv = historical_iv["IV"].min()
interpretation += f"**Historical Implied Volatility Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The average implied volatility over the period is {avg_iv:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The maximum implied volatility recorded was {max_iv:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The minimum implied volatility recorded was {min_iv:.2f}%.\n"
interpretation += f"- The current implied volatility is {current_iv:.2f}%.\n"
recent_trend = "increased" if historical_iv['IV'].iloc[-1] > historical_iv['IV'].iloc[-30] else "decreased"
interpretation += f"- In the last 30 days, the implied volatility has {recent_trend} compared to the previous period.\n\n"
# Put/Call Ratio Interpretation
interpretation += f"**Put/Call Ratio Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The Put/Call Ratio is {put_call_ratio:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f"- Total volume of puts: {total_puts}\n"
interpretation += f"- Total volume of calls: {total_calls}\n"
if put_call_ratio > 1:
interpretation += "- A Put/Call Ratio greater than 1 indicates a bearish sentiment, with more puts being traded relative to calls.\n\n"
elif put_call_ratio < 1:
interpretation += "- A Put/Call Ratio less than 1 indicates a bullish sentiment, with more calls being traded relative to puts.\n\n"
else:
interpretation += "- A Put/Call Ratio of 1 indicates a neutral sentiment, with equal volumes of puts and calls being traded.\n\n"
# Greeks Analysis Interpretation
interpretation += f"**Options Greeks Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- **Delta:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average delta for calls is {avg_delta_calls:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average delta for puts is {avg_delta_puts:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f"- **Gamma:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average gamma for calls is {avg_gamma_calls:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average gamma for puts is {avg_gamma_puts:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f"- **Theta:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average theta for calls is {avg_theta_calls:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average theta for puts is {avg_theta_puts:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f"- **Vega:**\n"
interpretation += f" - Calls: The average vega for calls is {avg_vega_calls:.2f}.\n"
interpretation += f" - Puts: The average vega for puts is {avg_vega_puts:.2f}.\n"
if avg_delta_calls > avg_delta_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher average delta for calls suggests a bullish sentiment as calls are more sensitive to upward movements.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher average delta for puts suggests a bearish sentiment as puts are more sensitive to downward movements.\n"
if avg_gamma_calls > avg_gamma_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher average gamma for calls indicates higher sensitivity of delta to underlying price changes, suggesting larger price swings for calls.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher average gamma for puts indicates higher sensitivity of delta to underlying price changes, suggesting larger price swings for puts.\n"
if avg_theta_calls < avg_theta_puts:
interpretation += "- The more negative average theta for calls indicates higher time decay for bullish positions.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The more negative average theta for puts indicates higher time decay for bearish positions.\n"
if avg_vega_calls > avg_vega_puts:
interpretation += "- The higher average vega for calls suggests calls are more sensitive to volatility changes, beneficial in volatile markets for bullish strategies.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The higher average vega for puts suggests puts are more sensitive to volatility changes, beneficial in volatile markets for bearish strategies.\n\n"
# Sentiment Score Interpretation
interpretation += f"**Sentiment Score Analysis:**\n"
interpretation += f"- The sentiment score is {sentiment_score:.2f}, indicating a {sentiment_description} market sentiment.\n"
interpretation += f"- Contribution from Implied Volatility difference (high IV of calls - low IV of puts): {high_iv_calls - low_iv_puts:.2f}\n"
interpretation += f"- Contribution from Volume difference (total calls - total puts) / (total calls + total puts): {(total_calls - total_puts) / (total_calls + total_puts):.2f}\n"
if sentiment_description == "Bullish":
interpretation += "- The bullish sentiment is driven by higher implied volatility in calls and higher call volumes, indicating expectations of upward price movements.\n"
else:
interpretation += "- The bearish sentiment is driven by higher implied volatility in puts and higher put volumes, indicating expectations of downward price movements.\n"
st.markdown(interpretation)
with st.sidebar.expander("Input Parameters", expanded=True):
ticker = st.sidebar.text_input("Enter Ticker Symbol:", "AAPL", help="Enter the stock ticker symbol (e.g., AAPL for Apple Inc.).")
start_date = st.sidebar.date_input("Select Start Date", datetime(2020, 1, 1), help="Select the start date for the analysis.")
if st.sidebar.button("Run Analysis"):
options_data, recent_price = get_options_data(ticker)
if options_data is not None:
st.subheader("Volatility Smile Plot")
overall_avg_iv_calls, overall_avg_iv_puts, avg_iv_by_strike_calls, avg_iv_by_strike_puts, expirations = plot_volatility_smile(options_data, recent_price, ticker)
with st.expander("Volatility Smile Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_volatility_smile(ticker, overall_avg_iv_calls, overall_avg_iv_puts, avg_iv_by_strike_calls, avg_iv_by_strike_puts)
st.subheader("Open Interest")
overall_avg_oi_calls, overall_avg_oi_puts, calls_data, puts_data = plot_open_interest(options_data, recent_price, ticker)
with st.expander("Open Interest Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_open_interest(ticker, overall_avg_oi_calls, overall_avg_oi_puts, calls_data, puts_data)
st.subheader("Volume Analysis")
overall_avg_vol_calls, overall_avg_vol_puts, calls_data, puts_data = plot_volume(options_data, recent_price, ticker)
with st.expander("Volume Analysis Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_volume(ticker, overall_avg_vol_calls, overall_avg_vol_puts, calls_data, puts_data)
st.subheader("Volatility Surface Plot")
col1, col2 = st.columns(2)
with col1:
st.markdown("### Puts")
puts_data = plot_3d_puts_implied_volatility(options_data, ticker)
with st.expander("3D Puts Implied Volatility Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_3d_puts_implied_volatility(ticker, puts_data)
with col2:
st.markdown("### Calls")
calls_data = plot_3d_calls_implied_volatility(options_data, ticker)
with st.expander("3D Calls Implied Volatility Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_3d_calls_implied_volatility(ticker, calls_data)
st.subheader("6. Historical IV Approximation")
historical_iv, current_iv = plot_historical_iv(ticker, start_date)
with st.expander("Historical IV Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_historical_iv(ticker, historical_iv, current_iv)
st.subheader("Put to Call Ratio")
total_puts, total_calls, put_call_ratio = calculate_put_call_ratio(options_data)
with st.expander("Put to Call Ratio Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_put_call_ratio(ticker, total_puts, total_calls, put_call_ratio)
st.subheader("Greeks Analysis")
calls_data, puts_data = plot_greeks(options_data, recent_price, ticker)
with st.expander("Greeks Analysis Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_greeks(ticker, calls_data, puts_data)
st.subheader("Sentiment Score")
high_iv_calls = overall_avg_iv_calls
low_iv_puts = overall_avg_iv_puts
sentiment_score, sentiment_description = calculate_sentiment_score(options_data, high_iv_calls, low_iv_puts, total_calls, total_puts)
with st.expander("Sentiment Score Interpretation", expanded=False):
interpret_sentiment_score(ticker, sentiment_score, sentiment_description, high_iv_calls, low_iv_puts, total_calls, total_puts)
# Add the overall interpretation here
# st.subheader("10. Overall Interpretation")
# avg_delta_calls = calls_data['delta'].mean()
# avg_gamma_calls = calls_data['gamma'].mean()
# avg_theta_calls = calls_data['theta'].mean()
# avg_vega_calls = calls_data['vega'].mean()
# avg_delta_puts = puts_data['delta'].mean()
# avg_gamma_puts = puts_data['gamma'].mean()
# avg_theta_puts = puts_data['theta'].mean()
# avg_vega_puts = puts_data['vega'].mean()
# overall_interpretation(ticker,
# overall_avg_iv_calls, overall_avg_iv_puts, avg_iv_by_strike_calls, avg_iv_by_strike_puts,
# overall_avg_vol_calls, overall_avg_vol_puts, calls_data, puts_data,
# historical_iv, current_iv,
# put_call_ratio,
# sentiment_score, sentiment_description, high_iv_calls, low_iv_puts, total_calls, total_puts,
# avg_delta_calls, avg_delta_puts, avg_gamma_calls, avg_gamma_puts, avg_theta_calls, avg_theta_puts, avg_vega_calls, avg_vega_puts)
# Hide the Streamlit style
hide_streamlit_style = """
<style>
#MainMenu {visibility: hidden;}
footer {visibility: hidden;}
</style>
"""
st.markdown(hide_streamlit_style, unsafe_allow_html=True)
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