import streamlit as st import yfinance as yf import numpy as np import pandas as pd import plotly.graph_objects as go from itertools import product from datetime import datetime, timedelta # Function to calculate Hull Moving Average (HMA) def hull_moving_average(data, window): half_length = int(window / 2) sqrt_length = int(np.sqrt(window)) wma_half = data['Close'].rolling(half_length).apply(lambda x: np.dot(x, range(1, half_length+1)) / sum(range(1, half_length+1)), raw=True) wma_full = data['Close'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: np.dot(x, range(1, window+1)) / sum(range(1, window+1)), raw=True) hma = 2 * wma_half - wma_full hma = hma.rolling(sqrt_length).apply(lambda x: np.dot(x, range(1, sqrt_length+1)) / sum(range(1, sqrt_length+1)), raw=True) return hma # Function to calculate signals based on HMA crossover def calculate_signals_hma(data, short_window, long_window): data['short_hma'] = hull_moving_average(data, short_window) data['long_hma'] = hull_moving_average(data, long_window) data['signal'] = np.where(data['short_hma'] > data['long_hma'], 1, -1) # 1 for Buy, -1 for Sell data['positions'] = data['signal'].diff() # Difference to detect signal changes return data # Function to calculate accuracy of the strategy with adjustable day threshold def calculate_accuracy(data, buy_threshold, sell_threshold): buy_signals = data[data['positions'] == 2] # 2 indicates a Buy signal after a Sell sell_signals = data[data['positions'] == -2] # -2 indicates a Sell signal after a Buy buy_accuracy = (data['Close'].shift(-buy_threshold)[buy_signals.index] > buy_signals['Close']).mean() sell_accuracy = (data['Close'].shift(-sell_threshold)[sell_signals.index] < sell_signals['Close']).mean() overall_accuracy = (buy_accuracy + sell_accuracy) / 2 return overall_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy # Function to optimize HMA parameters based on accuracy def optimize_hma(data, short_windows, long_windows, buy_threshold, sell_threshold): results = [] best_accuracy = 0 best_params = None for short_window, long_window in product(short_windows, long_windows): if short_window >= long_window: continue temp_data = calculate_signals_hma(data.copy(), short_window, long_window) accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy = calculate_accuracy(temp_data, buy_threshold, sell_threshold) results.append((short_window, long_window, accuracy)) if accuracy > best_accuracy: best_accuracy = accuracy best_params = (short_window, long_window, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy) results_df = pd.DataFrame(results, columns=['Short_HMA', 'Long_HMA', 'Accuracy']) return best_params, best_accuracy, results_df # Plotting function with win rates in the legend next to buy/sell signals def plot_results(data, best_short_window, best_long_window, horizon_name, best_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy): data = calculate_signals_hma(data.copy(), best_short_window, best_long_window) fig = go.Figure() # Add price and HMA lines fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Price', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}')) fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['short_hma'], mode='lines', name=f'Short HMA ({best_short_window})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}')) fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['long_hma'], mode='lines', name=f'Long HMA ({best_long_window})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}')) # Add Buy/Sell signals with increased marker size buy_signals = data[data['positions'] == 2] # 2 indicates a Buy signal after a Sell sell_signals = data[data['positions'] == -2] # -2 indicates a Sell signal after a Buy fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=buy_signals.index, y=buy_signals['Close'], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='green', size=15, symbol='triangle-up'), name=f'Buy Signal (Win Rate: {buy_accuracy:.2f})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}')) fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sell_signals.index, y=sell_signals['Close'], mode='markers', marker=dict(color='red', size=15, symbol='triangle-down'), name=f'Sell Signal (Win Rate: {sell_accuracy:.2f})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}')) # Set title and layout, including more detailed date formatting for x-axis fig.update_layout( title=f'{horizon_name} Horizon: Price and HMA with Buy/Sell Signals (Best Accuracy: {best_accuracy:.2f})', xaxis_title='Date', yaxis_title='Price', xaxis=dict( tickformat="%b %Y", dtick="M1", tickangle=45, ), autosize=True ) return fig # Plotting function for strategy performance over time def plot_strategy_over_time(data, best_short_window, best_long_window): data = calculate_signals_hma(data.copy(), best_short_window, best_long_window) # Rolling accuracy calculation window_size = 252 # Using a 1-year window for rolling accuracy data['rolling_accuracy'] = data['signal'].rolling(window=window_size).apply(lambda x: (x.shift(-1) * x > 0).mean(), raw=False) fig = go.Figure() fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['rolling_accuracy'], mode='lines', name='Rolling Accuracy', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}')) fig.update_layout( title='Strategy Accuracy Over Time', xaxis_title='Date', yaxis_title='Rolling Accuracy', autosize=True ) return fig # Streamlit app layout st.set_page_config(layout="wide") # Sidebar configuration with st.sidebar: st.header("Input Parameters") with st.expander("How to Use", expanded=False): st.write(""" - Select the stock ticker. - Set the start and end dates. - Click 'Run' to execute the strategy. """) with st.expander("Ticker Parameters", expanded=True): ticker = st.text_input("Stock Ticker", value="AAPL", help="Enter the stock ticker symbol (e.g., AAPL, TSLA)") start_date = st.date_input("Start Date", value=datetime(2019, 1, 1), help="Select the start date for the data") end_date = st.date_input("End Date", value=datetime.now() + timedelta(days=1), help="Select the end date for the data") with st.expander("Select Horizon", expanded=True): st.radio("Horizon", ["Short-Term", "Medium-Term", "Long-Term"], key='horizon_page') # Load appropriate horizon settings based on the selected page horizons = { 'Short-Term': {'short_windows': range(5, 20, 2), 'long_windows': range(20, 50, 3), 'buy_threshold': 1, 'sell_threshold': 1}, 'Medium-Term': {'short_windows': range(20, 50, 2), 'long_windows': range(50, 100, 5), 'buy_threshold': 5, 'sell_threshold': 5}, 'Long-Term': {'short_windows': range(50, 100, 5), 'long_windows': range(100, 200, 10), 'buy_threshold': 10, 'sell_threshold': 10}, } selected_horizon = horizons[st.session_state.horizon_page] # Run button at the bottom of the sidebar run_button = st.button("Run Strategy") # Title based on the selected page st.title(f"Hull Moving Average Cross-Over Strategy Optimizer - {st.session_state.horizon_page}") # Explanation with LaTeX formulas st.write(""" This application optimizes a trading strategy based on the Hull Moving Average. The strategy uses a cross-over method to generate buy and sell signals by finding the best MA parameters in a given horizon. """) with st.expander("Hull Moving Average Methodology", expanded=False): st.latex(r""" \text{HMA} = \text{WMA}(2 \times \text{WMA}(n/2) - \text{WMA}(n), \sqrt{n}) """) st.write(""" The cross-over signals are generated based on the following rule: """) st.latex(r""" \text{Signal} = \begin{cases} \text{Buy} & \text{if } \text{Short HMA} > \text{Long HMA} \\ \text{Sell} & \text{if } \text{Short HMA} < \text{Long HMA} \end{cases} """) st.write(""" To read more about moving averages methodologies, visit [this link](https://entreprenerdly.com/top-36-moving-averages-methods-for-stock-prices-in-python/). """) # Main application logic if run_button: try: if 'data' not in st.session_state or st.session_state.get('ticker') != ticker or st.session_state.get('start_date') != start_date or st.session_state.get('end_date') != end_date: data = yf.download(ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date, auto_adjust=False) if isinstance(data.columns, pd.MultiIndex): data.columns = data.columns.get_level_values(0) if data.empty: raise ValueError(f"No data retrieved for {ticker}") if len(data) < max(selected_horizon['short_windows']) + max(selected_horizon['long_windows']): raise ValueError(f"Insufficient data points for {ticker}. Need at least {max(selected_horizon['short_windows']) + max(selected_horizon['long_windows'])} days.") st.session_state['data'] = data st.session_state['ticker'] = ticker st.session_state['start_date'] = start_date st.session_state['end_date'] = end_date data = st.session_state['data'] # Cache optimization results for each horizon if f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results' not in st.session_state: st.session_state[f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results'] = optimize_hma(data, selected_horizon['short_windows'], selected_horizon['long_windows'], selected_horizon['buy_threshold'], selected_horizon['sell_threshold']) # Unpack the results from the session state best_params, best_accuracy, results_df = st.session_state[f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results'] best_short_window, best_long_window, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy = best_params # Display results st.write(f"**{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon - Best Short HMA**: {best_short_window}, **Best Long HMA**: {best_long_window}, **Best Accuracy**: {best_accuracy:.2f}") st.write(f"**Buy Win Rate**: {buy_accuracy:.2f}, **Sell Win Rate**: {sell_accuracy:.2f}") # Plot results within a container to limit the height with st.container(): fig = plot_results(data, best_short_window, best_long_window, st.session_state.horizon_page, best_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy) st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True, height=600) # Plot strategy performance over time within a container to limit the height st.write("Strategy Performance Over Time") with st.container(): strategy_fig = plot_strategy_over_time(data, best_short_window, best_long_window) st.plotly_chart(strategy_fig, use_container_width=True, height=400) # Display heatmap of accuracy with annotations st.write(f"{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations") heatmap_df = results_df.pivot(index='Short_HMA', columns='Long_HMA', values='Accuracy') # Create the heatmap with annotations heatmap_fig = go.Figure(data=go.Heatmap( z=heatmap_df.values, x=heatmap_df.columns, y=heatmap_df.index, colorscale='YlGnBu', text=heatmap_df.values, texttemplate="%{text:.2f}", hovertemplate="Short HMA: %{y}
Long HMA: %{x}
Accuracy: %{text:.2f}", showscale=True )) heatmap_fig.update_layout( title=f'{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations', xaxis_title='Long HMA', yaxis_title='Short HMA', autosize=True ) with st.container(): st.plotly_chart(heatmap_fig, use_container_width=True, height=600) except Exception as e: st.error(f"An error occurred while running the analysis: {e}") # Re-display the results if they exist and user switches pages without re-running else: if f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results' in st.session_state: # Unpack the results from the session state best_params, best_accuracy, results_df = st.session_state[f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results'] best_short_window, best_long_window, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy = best_params # Display results st.write(f"**{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon - Best Short HMA**: {best_short_window}, **Best Long HMA**: {best_long_window}, **Best Accuracy**: {best_accuracy:.2f}") st.write(f"**Buy Win Rate**: {buy_accuracy:.2f}, **Sell Win Rate**: {sell_accuracy:.2f}") # Plot results within a container to limit the height with st.container(): fig = plot_results(st.session_state['data'], best_short_window, best_long_window, st.session_state.horizon_page, best_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy) st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True, height=600) # Plot strategy performance over time within a container to limit the height st.write("Strategy Performance Over Time") with st.container(): strategy_fig = plot_strategy_over_time(st.session_state['data'], best_short_window, best_long_window) st.plotly_chart(strategy_fig, use_container_width=True, height=400) # Display heatmap of accuracy with annotations st.write(f"{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations") heatmap_df = results_df.pivot(index='Short_HMA', columns='Long_HMA', values='Accuracy') # Create the heatmap with annotations heatmap_fig = go.Figure(data=go.Heatmap( z=heatmap_df.values, x=heatmap_df.columns, y=heatmap_df.index, colorscale='YlGnBu', text=heatmap_df.values, texttemplate="%{text:.2f}", hovertemplate="Short HMA: %{y}
Long HMA: %{x}
Accuracy: %{text:.2f}", showscale=True )) heatmap_fig.update_layout( title=f'{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations', xaxis_title='Long HMA', yaxis_title='Short HMA', autosize=True ) with st.container(): st.plotly_chart(heatmap_fig, use_container_width=True, height=600) hide_streamlit_style = """ """ st.markdown(hide_streamlit_style, unsafe_allow_html=True)