import streamlit as st
import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from itertools import product
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
# Function to calculate Hull Moving Average (HMA)
def hull_moving_average(data, window):
half_length = int(window / 2)
sqrt_length = int(np.sqrt(window))
wma_half = data['Close'].rolling(half_length).apply(lambda x: np.dot(x, range(1, half_length+1)) / sum(range(1, half_length+1)), raw=True)
wma_full = data['Close'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: np.dot(x, range(1, window+1)) / sum(range(1, window+1)), raw=True)
hma = 2 * wma_half - wma_full
hma = hma.rolling(sqrt_length).apply(lambda x: np.dot(x, range(1, sqrt_length+1)) / sum(range(1, sqrt_length+1)), raw=True)
return hma
# Function to calculate signals based on HMA crossover
def calculate_signals_hma(data, short_window, long_window):
data['short_hma'] = hull_moving_average(data, short_window)
data['long_hma'] = hull_moving_average(data, long_window)
data['signal'] = np.where(data['short_hma'] > data['long_hma'], 1, -1) # 1 for Buy, -1 for Sell
data['positions'] = data['signal'].diff() # Difference to detect signal changes
return data
# Function to calculate accuracy of the strategy with adjustable day threshold
def calculate_accuracy(data, buy_threshold, sell_threshold):
buy_signals = data[data['positions'] == 2] # 2 indicates a Buy signal after a Sell
sell_signals = data[data['positions'] == -2] # -2 indicates a Sell signal after a Buy
buy_accuracy = (data['Close'].shift(-buy_threshold)[buy_signals.index] > buy_signals['Close']).mean()
sell_accuracy = (data['Close'].shift(-sell_threshold)[sell_signals.index] < sell_signals['Close']).mean()
overall_accuracy = (buy_accuracy + sell_accuracy) / 2
return overall_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy
# Function to optimize HMA parameters based on accuracy
def optimize_hma(data, short_windows, long_windows, buy_threshold, sell_threshold):
results = []
best_accuracy = 0
best_params = None
for short_window, long_window in product(short_windows, long_windows):
if short_window >= long_window:
continue
temp_data = calculate_signals_hma(data.copy(), short_window, long_window)
accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy = calculate_accuracy(temp_data, buy_threshold, sell_threshold)
results.append((short_window, long_window, accuracy))
if accuracy > best_accuracy:
best_accuracy = accuracy
best_params = (short_window, long_window, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy)
results_df = pd.DataFrame(results, columns=['Short_HMA', 'Long_HMA', 'Accuracy'])
return best_params, best_accuracy, results_df
# Plotting function with win rates in the legend next to buy/sell signals
def plot_results(data, best_short_window, best_long_window, horizon_name, best_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy):
data = calculate_signals_hma(data.copy(), best_short_window, best_long_window)
fig = go.Figure()
# Add price and HMA lines
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Price', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['short_hma'], mode='lines', name=f'Short HMA ({best_short_window})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['long_hma'], mode='lines', name=f'Long HMA ({best_long_window})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}'))
# Add Buy/Sell signals with increased marker size
buy_signals = data[data['positions'] == 2] # 2 indicates a Buy signal after a Sell
sell_signals = data[data['positions'] == -2] # -2 indicates a Sell signal after a Buy
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=buy_signals.index, y=buy_signals['Close'], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color='green', size=15, symbol='triangle-up'),
name=f'Buy Signal (Win Rate: {buy_accuracy:.2f})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sell_signals.index, y=sell_signals['Close'], mode='markers',
marker=dict(color='red', size=15, symbol='triangle-down'),
name=f'Sell Signal (Win Rate: {sell_accuracy:.2f})', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}'))
# Set title and layout, including more detailed date formatting for x-axis
fig.update_layout(
title=f'{horizon_name} Horizon: Price and HMA with Buy/Sell Signals (Best Accuracy: {best_accuracy:.2f})',
xaxis_title='Date',
yaxis_title='Price',
xaxis=dict(
tickformat="%b %Y",
dtick="M1",
tickangle=45,
),
autosize=True
)
return fig
# Plotting function for strategy performance over time
def plot_strategy_over_time(data, best_short_window, best_long_window):
data = calculate_signals_hma(data.copy(), best_short_window, best_long_window)
# Rolling accuracy calculation
window_size = 252 # Using a 1-year window for rolling accuracy
data['rolling_accuracy'] = data['signal'].rolling(window=window_size).apply(lambda x: (x.shift(-1) * x > 0).mean(), raw=False)
fig = go.Figure()
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['rolling_accuracy'], mode='lines', name='Rolling Accuracy', hovertemplate='%{x|%Y-%m-%d}'))
fig.update_layout(
title='Strategy Accuracy Over Time',
xaxis_title='Date',
yaxis_title='Rolling Accuracy',
autosize=True
)
return fig
# Streamlit app layout
st.set_page_config(layout="wide")
# Sidebar configuration
with st.sidebar:
st.header("Input Parameters")
with st.expander("How to Use", expanded=False):
st.write("""
- Select the stock ticker.
- Set the start and end dates.
- Click 'Run' to execute the strategy.
""")
with st.expander("Ticker Parameters", expanded=True):
ticker = st.text_input("Stock Ticker", value="AAPL", help="Enter the stock ticker symbol (e.g., AAPL, TSLA)")
start_date = st.date_input("Start Date", value=datetime(2019, 1, 1), help="Select the start date for the data")
end_date = st.date_input("End Date", value=datetime.now() + timedelta(days=1), help="Select the end date for the data")
with st.expander("Select Horizon", expanded=True):
st.radio("Horizon", ["Short-Term", "Medium-Term", "Long-Term"], key='horizon_page')
# Load appropriate horizon settings based on the selected page
horizons = {
'Short-Term': {'short_windows': range(5, 20, 2), 'long_windows': range(20, 50, 3), 'buy_threshold': 1, 'sell_threshold': 1},
'Medium-Term': {'short_windows': range(20, 50, 2), 'long_windows': range(50, 100, 5), 'buy_threshold': 5, 'sell_threshold': 5},
'Long-Term': {'short_windows': range(50, 100, 5), 'long_windows': range(100, 200, 10), 'buy_threshold': 10, 'sell_threshold': 10},
}
selected_horizon = horizons[st.session_state.horizon_page]
# Run button at the bottom of the sidebar
run_button = st.button("Run Strategy")
# Title based on the selected page
st.title(f"Hull Moving Average Cross-Over Strategy Optimizer - {st.session_state.horizon_page}")
# Explanation with LaTeX formulas
st.write("""
This application optimizes a trading strategy based on the Hull Moving Average. The strategy uses a cross-over method to generate buy and sell signals by finding the best MA parameters in a given horizon.
""")
with st.expander("Hull Moving Average Methodology", expanded=False):
st.latex(r"""
\text{HMA} = \text{WMA}(2 \times \text{WMA}(n/2) - \text{WMA}(n), \sqrt{n})
""")
st.write("""
The cross-over signals are generated based on the following rule:
""")
st.latex(r"""
\text{Signal} =
\begin{cases}
\text{Buy} & \text{if } \text{Short HMA} > \text{Long HMA} \\
\text{Sell} & \text{if } \text{Short HMA} < \text{Long HMA}
\end{cases}
""")
st.write("""
To read more about moving averages methodologies, visit [this link](https://entreprenerdly.com/top-36-moving-averages-methods-for-stock-prices-in-python/).
""")
# Main application logic
if run_button:
try:
if 'data' not in st.session_state or st.session_state.get('ticker') != ticker or st.session_state.get('start_date') != start_date or st.session_state.get('end_date') != end_date:
data = yf.download(ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date, auto_adjust=False)
if isinstance(data.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
data.columns = data.columns.get_level_values(0)
if data.empty:
raise ValueError(f"No data retrieved for {ticker}")
if len(data) < max(selected_horizon['short_windows']) + max(selected_horizon['long_windows']):
raise ValueError(f"Insufficient data points for {ticker}. Need at least {max(selected_horizon['short_windows']) + max(selected_horizon['long_windows'])} days.")
st.session_state['data'] = data
st.session_state['ticker'] = ticker
st.session_state['start_date'] = start_date
st.session_state['end_date'] = end_date
data = st.session_state['data']
# Cache optimization results for each horizon
if f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results' not in st.session_state:
st.session_state[f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results'] = optimize_hma(data, selected_horizon['short_windows'], selected_horizon['long_windows'], selected_horizon['buy_threshold'], selected_horizon['sell_threshold'])
# Unpack the results from the session state
best_params, best_accuracy, results_df = st.session_state[f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results']
best_short_window, best_long_window, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy = best_params
# Display results
st.write(f"**{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon - Best Short HMA**: {best_short_window}, **Best Long HMA**: {best_long_window}, **Best Accuracy**: {best_accuracy:.2f}")
st.write(f"**Buy Win Rate**: {buy_accuracy:.2f}, **Sell Win Rate**: {sell_accuracy:.2f}")
# Plot results within a container to limit the height
with st.container():
fig = plot_results(data, best_short_window, best_long_window, st.session_state.horizon_page, best_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy)
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True, height=600)
# Plot strategy performance over time within a container to limit the height
st.write("Strategy Performance Over Time")
with st.container():
strategy_fig = plot_strategy_over_time(data, best_short_window, best_long_window)
st.plotly_chart(strategy_fig, use_container_width=True, height=400)
# Display heatmap of accuracy with annotations
st.write(f"{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations")
heatmap_df = results_df.pivot(index='Short_HMA', columns='Long_HMA', values='Accuracy')
# Create the heatmap with annotations
heatmap_fig = go.Figure(data=go.Heatmap(
z=heatmap_df.values,
x=heatmap_df.columns,
y=heatmap_df.index,
colorscale='YlGnBu',
text=heatmap_df.values,
texttemplate="%{text:.2f}",
hovertemplate="Short HMA: %{y}
Long HMA: %{x}
Accuracy: %{text:.2f}",
showscale=True
))
heatmap_fig.update_layout(
title=f'{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations',
xaxis_title='Long HMA',
yaxis_title='Short HMA',
autosize=True
)
with st.container():
st.plotly_chart(heatmap_fig, use_container_width=True, height=600)
except Exception as e:
st.error(f"An error occurred while running the analysis: {e}")
# Re-display the results if they exist and user switches pages without re-running
else:
if f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results' in st.session_state:
# Unpack the results from the session state
best_params, best_accuracy, results_df = st.session_state[f'{st.session_state.horizon_page}_results']
best_short_window, best_long_window, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy = best_params
# Display results
st.write(f"**{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon - Best Short HMA**: {best_short_window}, **Best Long HMA**: {best_long_window}, **Best Accuracy**: {best_accuracy:.2f}")
st.write(f"**Buy Win Rate**: {buy_accuracy:.2f}, **Sell Win Rate**: {sell_accuracy:.2f}")
# Plot results within a container to limit the height
with st.container():
fig = plot_results(st.session_state['data'], best_short_window, best_long_window, st.session_state.horizon_page, best_accuracy, buy_accuracy, sell_accuracy)
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True, height=600)
# Plot strategy performance over time within a container to limit the height
st.write("Strategy Performance Over Time")
with st.container():
strategy_fig = plot_strategy_over_time(st.session_state['data'], best_short_window, best_long_window)
st.plotly_chart(strategy_fig, use_container_width=True, height=400)
# Display heatmap of accuracy with annotations
st.write(f"{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations")
heatmap_df = results_df.pivot(index='Short_HMA', columns='Long_HMA', values='Accuracy')
# Create the heatmap with annotations
heatmap_fig = go.Figure(data=go.Heatmap(
z=heatmap_df.values,
x=heatmap_df.columns,
y=heatmap_df.index,
colorscale='YlGnBu',
text=heatmap_df.values,
texttemplate="%{text:.2f}",
hovertemplate="Short HMA: %{y}
Long HMA: %{x}
Accuracy: %{text:.2f}",
showscale=True
))
heatmap_fig.update_layout(
title=f'{st.session_state.horizon_page} Horizon: Accuracy Heatmap of HMA Combinations',
xaxis_title='Long HMA',
yaxis_title='Short HMA',
autosize=True
)
with st.container():
st.plotly_chart(heatmap_fig, use_container_width=True, height=600)
hide_streamlit_style = """
"""
st.markdown(hide_streamlit_style, unsafe_allow_html=True)