Spaces:
Sleeping
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Update app.py
Browse files
app.py
CHANGED
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@@ -1,38 +1,1354 @@
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| 2 |
import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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| 4 |
import streamlit as st
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|
| 5 |
|
| 6 |
-
|
| 7 |
-
|
| 8 |
-
|
| 9 |
-
|
| 10 |
-
|
| 11 |
-
|
| 12 |
-
|
| 13 |
-
|
| 14 |
-
|
| 15 |
-
|
| 16 |
-
|
| 17 |
-
indices = np.linspace(0, 1, num_points)
|
| 18 |
-
theta = 2 * np.pi * num_turns * indices
|
| 19 |
-
radius = indices
|
| 20 |
-
|
| 21 |
-
x = radius * np.cos(theta)
|
| 22 |
-
y = radius * np.sin(theta)
|
| 23 |
-
|
| 24 |
-
df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 25 |
-
"x": x,
|
| 26 |
-
"y": y,
|
| 27 |
-
"idx": indices,
|
| 28 |
-
"rand": np.random.randn(num_points),
|
| 29 |
-
})
|
| 30 |
-
|
| 31 |
-
st.altair_chart(alt.Chart(df, height=700, width=700)
|
| 32 |
-
.mark_point(filled=True)
|
| 33 |
-
.encode(
|
| 34 |
-
x=alt.X("x", axis=None),
|
| 35 |
-
y=alt.Y("y", axis=None),
|
| 36 |
-
color=alt.Color("idx", legend=None, scale=alt.Scale()),
|
| 37 |
-
size=alt.Size("rand", legend=None, scale=alt.Scale(range=[1, 150])),
|
| 38 |
-
))
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# app.py — Market Breadth & Momentum
|
| 2 |
+
import os
|
| 3 |
+
import io
|
| 4 |
+
import time
|
| 5 |
+
import math
|
| 6 |
+
import random
|
| 7 |
+
import threading
|
| 8 |
+
import concurrent.futures as cf
|
| 9 |
+
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
| 10 |
+
|
| 11 |
import numpy as np
|
| 12 |
import pandas as pd
|
| 13 |
+
import requests
|
| 14 |
import streamlit as st
|
| 15 |
+
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
|
| 16 |
+
import plotly.graph_objects as go
|
| 17 |
+
import os
|
| 18 |
+
|
| 19 |
+
|
| 20 |
+
# ----------------------------- Helpers & Caching -----------------------------
|
| 21 |
+
API_KEY = os.getenv("FMP_API_KEY")
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
|
| 24 |
+
MAX_WORKERS = 32
|
| 25 |
+
RATE_BACKOFF_MAX = 300
|
| 26 |
+
JITTER_SEC = 0.2
|
| 27 |
+
|
| 28 |
+
# ----------------------------- Page config -----------------------------
|
| 29 |
+
st.set_page_config(page_title="Market Breadth & Momentum", layout="wide")
|
| 30 |
+
st.title("Market Breadth & Momentum")
|
| 31 |
+
|
| 32 |
+
st.markdown(
|
| 33 |
+
"Tracks index trend, participation, and momentum across constituents. "
|
| 34 |
+
"Shows breadth strength (% above key averages), advance–decline behavior, new highs/lows, "
|
| 35 |
+
"the McClellan Oscillator, and cross-section momentum heatmaps."
|
| 36 |
+
)
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
# ----------------------------- Sidebar -----------------------------
|
| 39 |
+
with st.sidebar:
|
| 40 |
+
st.header("Parameters")
|
| 41 |
+
|
| 42 |
+
with st.expander("Data Window", expanded=False):
|
| 43 |
+
default_start = datetime(2015, 1, 1).date()
|
| 44 |
+
default_end = (datetime.today().date() + timedelta(days=1))
|
| 45 |
+
start_date = st.date_input(
|
| 46 |
+
"Start date",
|
| 47 |
+
value=default_start,
|
| 48 |
+
min_value=datetime(2000, 1, 1).date(),
|
| 49 |
+
max_value=default_end,
|
| 50 |
+
help="Earlier start = more history but slower load. Later start = faster."
|
| 51 |
+
)
|
| 52 |
+
end_date = st.date_input(
|
| 53 |
+
"End date",
|
| 54 |
+
value=default_end,
|
| 55 |
+
min_value=default_start,
|
| 56 |
+
max_value=default_end,
|
| 57 |
+
help="End date is set to today + 1 by default to include the latest close."
|
| 58 |
+
)
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
with st.expander("Breadth Settings", expanded=False):
|
| 61 |
+
sma_fast = st.number_input(
|
| 62 |
+
"Fast MA (days)",
|
| 63 |
+
value=50, min_value=20, max_value=200, step=5,
|
| 64 |
+
help="Used for % above fast MA and index fast MA. Higher = slower, fewer flips."
|
| 65 |
+
)
|
| 66 |
+
sma_slow = st.number_input(
|
| 67 |
+
"Slow MA (days)",
|
| 68 |
+
value=200, min_value=100, max_value=400, step=10,
|
| 69 |
+
help="Used for % above slow MA and index slow MA. Higher = slower, longer trend focus."
|
| 70 |
+
)
|
| 71 |
+
vwap_weeks = st.number_input(
|
| 72 |
+
"VWAP lookback (weeks)",
|
| 73 |
+
value=200, min_value=52, max_value=520, step=4,
|
| 74 |
+
help="Anchored weekly VWAP for the index. Higher = more inertia."
|
| 75 |
+
)
|
| 76 |
+
ad_smooth = st.number_input(
|
| 77 |
+
"Adv/Decl smoothing (days)",
|
| 78 |
+
value=30, min_value=5, max_value=90, step=5,
|
| 79 |
+
help="Smooths advancing/declining counts. Higher = steadier lines."
|
| 80 |
+
)
|
| 81 |
+
mo_span_fast = st.number_input(
|
| 82 |
+
"McClellan fast EMA (days)",
|
| 83 |
+
value=19, min_value=5, max_value=30, step=1,
|
| 84 |
+
help="Fast EMA for McClellan Oscillator. Smaller = more sensitive."
|
| 85 |
+
)
|
| 86 |
+
mo_span_slow = st.number_input(
|
| 87 |
+
"McClellan slow EMA (days)",
|
| 88 |
+
value=39, min_value=10, max_value=60, step=1,
|
| 89 |
+
help="Slow EMA for McClellan Oscillator. Larger = smoother baseline."
|
| 90 |
+
)
|
| 91 |
+
mo_signal_span = st.number_input(
|
| 92 |
+
"McClellan signal EMA (days)",
|
| 93 |
+
value=9, min_value=3, max_value=20, step=1,
|
| 94 |
+
help="Signal line for the oscillator. Crosses indicate momentum turns."
|
| 95 |
+
)
|
| 96 |
+
|
| 97 |
+
with st.expander("Rebased Comparison", expanded=False):
|
| 98 |
+
rebase_days = st.number_input(
|
| 99 |
+
"Window (trading days)",
|
| 100 |
+
value=365, min_value=60, max_value=1000, step=5,
|
| 101 |
+
help="Back window for rebased comparison. Longer = more context, smaller features."
|
| 102 |
+
)
|
| 103 |
+
rebase_base = st.number_input(
|
| 104 |
+
"Base level",
|
| 105 |
+
value=100, min_value=1, max_value=1000, step=1,
|
| 106 |
+
help="Starting level for rebased lines."
|
| 107 |
+
)
|
| 108 |
+
y_pad = st.slider(
|
| 109 |
+
"Y-range padding",
|
| 110 |
+
min_value=1, max_value=8, value=3, step=1,
|
| 111 |
+
help="Higher padding widens the log-scale y-range."
|
| 112 |
+
)
|
| 113 |
+
|
| 114 |
+
with st.expander("Heatmaps", expanded=False):
|
| 115 |
+
heat_last_days = st.number_input(
|
| 116 |
+
"Daily return heatmap window (days)",
|
| 117 |
+
value=60, min_value=20, max_value=252, step=5,
|
| 118 |
+
help="Number of recent sessions for the daily return heatmap."
|
| 119 |
+
)
|
| 120 |
+
mom_look = st.number_input(
|
| 121 |
+
"Momentum lookback (days)",
|
| 122 |
+
value=30, min_value=10, max_value=252, step=5,
|
| 123 |
+
help="Return horizon for the percentile momentum heatmap."
|
| 124 |
+
)
|
| 125 |
+
|
| 126 |
+
run_btn = st.button("Run Analysis", type="primary")
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
|
| 129 |
+
def _to_vendor(sym: str) -> str:
|
| 130 |
+
return sym.replace("-", ".")
|
| 131 |
+
|
| 132 |
+
_thread_local = threading.local()
|
| 133 |
+
def _session():
|
| 134 |
+
s = getattr(_thread_local, "session", None)
|
| 135 |
+
if s is None:
|
| 136 |
+
s = requests.Session()
|
| 137 |
+
adapter = requests.adapters.HTTPAdapter(pool_connections=MAX_WORKERS, pool_maxsize=MAX_WORKERS)
|
| 138 |
+
s.mount("https://", adapter)
|
| 139 |
+
_thread_local.session = s
|
| 140 |
+
return s
|
| 141 |
+
|
| 142 |
+
def _get_json(url: str, params: dict, timeout=60, backoff=5):
|
| 143 |
+
sess = _session()
|
| 144 |
+
while True:
|
| 145 |
+
r = sess.get(url, params=params, timeout=timeout)
|
| 146 |
+
if r.status_code == 429:
|
| 147 |
+
time.sleep(backoff)
|
| 148 |
+
backoff = min(backoff * 2, RATE_BACKOFF_MAX)
|
| 149 |
+
continue
|
| 150 |
+
r.raise_for_status()
|
| 151 |
+
return r.json()
|
| 152 |
+
|
| 153 |
+
def _parse_hist_payload(payload):
|
| 154 |
+
item = payload if isinstance(payload, dict) else (payload[0] if payload else {})
|
| 155 |
+
sym = item.get("symbol")
|
| 156 |
+
hist = item.get("historical") or []
|
| 157 |
+
if not sym or not hist:
|
| 158 |
+
return None, None
|
| 159 |
+
dfh = pd.DataFrame(hist)
|
| 160 |
+
if "date" not in dfh or "adjClose" not in dfh:
|
| 161 |
+
return None, None
|
| 162 |
+
s = (
|
| 163 |
+
dfh[["date", "adjClose"]]
|
| 164 |
+
.dropna()
|
| 165 |
+
.assign(date=lambda x: pd.to_datetime(x["date"]))
|
| 166 |
+
.set_index("date")["adjClose"]
|
| 167 |
+
.rename(sym)
|
| 168 |
+
)
|
| 169 |
+
return sym, s
|
| 170 |
+
|
| 171 |
+
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
|
| 172 |
+
def fetch_sp500_table():
|
| 173 |
+
url = "https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/sp500_constituent"
|
| 174 |
+
params = {"apikey": API_KEY}
|
| 175 |
+
payload = _get_json(url, params)
|
| 176 |
+
tab = pd.DataFrame(payload)
|
| 177 |
+
tab = tab.rename(columns={"symbol": "Symbol", "name": "Security"})
|
| 178 |
+
return tab[["Symbol", "Security"]].dropna()
|
| 179 |
+
|
| 180 |
+
def _fetch_one(orig_ticker: str, start: str, end: str):
|
| 181 |
+
time.sleep(random.random() * JITTER_SEC)
|
| 182 |
+
t_vendor = _to_vendor(orig_ticker)
|
| 183 |
+
url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/historical-price-full/{t_vendor}"
|
| 184 |
+
params = {"from": start, "to": end, "apikey": API_KEY}
|
| 185 |
+
try:
|
| 186 |
+
payload = _get_json(url, params)
|
| 187 |
+
sym, s = _parse_hist_payload(payload)
|
| 188 |
+
if s is None or s.empty:
|
| 189 |
+
return orig_ticker, None, "no data"
|
| 190 |
+
return orig_ticker, s.rename(t_vendor), None
|
| 191 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 192 |
+
return orig_ticker, None, str(e)
|
| 193 |
+
|
| 194 |
+
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
|
| 195 |
+
def build_close_parallel(tickers: list[str], start: str, end: str, max_workers: int = MAX_WORKERS):
|
| 196 |
+
n = len(tickers)
|
| 197 |
+
series_dict = {}
|
| 198 |
+
missing = {}
|
| 199 |
+
lock = threading.Lock()
|
| 200 |
+
|
| 201 |
+
def _task(t):
|
| 202 |
+
orig, s, err = _fetch_one(t, start, end)
|
| 203 |
+
with lock:
|
| 204 |
+
if err:
|
| 205 |
+
missing[orig] = err
|
| 206 |
+
else:
|
| 207 |
+
series_dict[s.name] = s
|
| 208 |
+
|
| 209 |
+
with cf.ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=max_workers) as ex:
|
| 210 |
+
futures = [ex.submit(_task, t) for t in tickers]
|
| 211 |
+
for _ in cf.as_completed(futures):
|
| 212 |
+
pass
|
| 213 |
+
|
| 214 |
+
if not series_dict:
|
| 215 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(), missing
|
| 216 |
+
|
| 217 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame(series_dict).sort_index()
|
| 218 |
+
df.index.name = "date"
|
| 219 |
+
f_to_o = {_to_vendor(t): t for t in tickers}
|
| 220 |
+
close = df.rename(columns=f_to_o)
|
| 221 |
+
close = close[[t for t in tickers if t in close.columns]]
|
| 222 |
+
return close, missing
|
| 223 |
+
|
| 224 |
+
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
|
| 225 |
+
def fetch_index_ohlcv(start: str, end: str):
|
| 226 |
+
# ^GSPC
|
| 227 |
+
url = "https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/historical-price-full/index/%5EGSPC"
|
| 228 |
+
params = {"from": start, "to": end, "apikey": API_KEY}
|
| 229 |
+
backoff = 5
|
| 230 |
+
while True:
|
| 231 |
+
r = requests.get(url, params=params, timeout=60)
|
| 232 |
+
if r.status_code == 429:
|
| 233 |
+
time.sleep(backoff)
|
| 234 |
+
backoff = min(backoff * 2, 300)
|
| 235 |
+
continue
|
| 236 |
+
r.raise_for_status()
|
| 237 |
+
payload = r.json()
|
| 238 |
+
if isinstance(payload, dict) and "historical" in payload:
|
| 239 |
+
hist = payload["historical"]
|
| 240 |
+
elif isinstance(payload, list) and payload and "historical" in payload[0]:
|
| 241 |
+
hist = payload[0]["historical"]
|
| 242 |
+
else:
|
| 243 |
+
hist = payload
|
| 244 |
+
idx_df = (
|
| 245 |
+
pd.DataFrame(hist)[["date", "close", "volume"]]
|
| 246 |
+
.assign(date=lambda x: pd.to_datetime(x["date"]))
|
| 247 |
+
.set_index("date")
|
| 248 |
+
.sort_index()
|
| 249 |
+
.rename(columns={"close": "Close", "volume": "Volume"})
|
| 250 |
+
)
|
| 251 |
+
return idx_df
|
| 252 |
+
|
| 253 |
+
def _safe_last(s):
|
| 254 |
+
s = s.dropna()
|
| 255 |
+
return s.iloc[-1] if len(s) else np.nan
|
| 256 |
+
|
| 257 |
+
# ----------------------------- Run -----------------------------
|
| 258 |
+
if run_btn:
|
| 259 |
+
with st.spinner("Loading tickers…"):
|
| 260 |
+
try:
|
| 261 |
+
spx_table = fetch_sp500_table()
|
| 262 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 263 |
+
st.error("Ticker table request failed. Try again later.")
|
| 264 |
+
st.stop()
|
| 265 |
+
|
| 266 |
+
tickers = spx_table["Symbol"].tolist()
|
| 267 |
+
st.caption(f"Constituents loaded: {len(tickers)}")
|
| 268 |
+
|
| 269 |
+
start_str = pd.to_datetime(start_date).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
|
| 270 |
+
end_str = pd.to_datetime(end_date).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
|
| 271 |
+
|
| 272 |
+
with st.spinner("Fetching historical prices (parallel)…"):
|
| 273 |
+
close, missing = build_close_parallel(tickers, start_str, end_str)
|
| 274 |
+
if close.empty:
|
| 275 |
+
st.error("No price data returned. Reduce the date range and retry.")
|
| 276 |
+
st.stop()
|
| 277 |
+
|
| 278 |
+
if missing:
|
| 279 |
+
st.warning(f"No data for {min(20, len(missing))} symbols (showing up to 20).")
|
| 280 |
+
|
| 281 |
+
clean_close = close.copy()
|
| 282 |
+
|
| 283 |
+
with st.spinner("Fetching index data…"):
|
| 284 |
+
try:
|
| 285 |
+
idx_df = fetch_index_ohlcv(
|
| 286 |
+
start=clean_close.index[0].strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
|
| 287 |
+
end=end_str
|
| 288 |
+
)
|
| 289 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 290 |
+
st.error("Index data request failed. Try again later.")
|
| 291 |
+
st.stop()
|
| 292 |
+
|
| 293 |
+
idx = idx_df["Close"].reindex(clean_close.index).ffill()
|
| 294 |
+
idx_volume = idx_df["Volume"].reindex(clean_close.index).ffill()
|
| 295 |
+
|
| 296 |
+
# ===================== SECTION 1 — Breadth Dashboard =====================
|
| 297 |
+
st.header("Breadth Dashboard")
|
| 298 |
+
|
| 299 |
+
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
|
| 300 |
+
# Overview
|
| 301 |
+
st.write("This panel tracks trend, participation, and momentum for a broad equity universe.")
|
| 302 |
+
st.write("Use it to judge trend quality, spot divergences, and gauge risk bias.")
|
| 303 |
+
|
| 304 |
+
# 1) Price trend (MAs, VWAP)
|
| 305 |
+
st.write("**Price trend**")
|
| 306 |
+
st.write("Simple moving averages (n days):")
|
| 307 |
+
st.latex(r"\mathrm{SMA}_{n}(t)=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}P_{t-k}")
|
| 308 |
+
st.write("Approximate 200-week VWAP (using ~5 trading days per week):")
|
| 309 |
+
st.latex(r"\mathrm{VWAP}_{200w}(t)=\frac{\sum_{k=0}^{N-1}P_{t-k}V_{t-k}}{\sum_{k=0}^{N-1}V_{t-k}},\quad N\approx200\times5")
|
| 310 |
+
st.write("Price above both MAs and fast>slow = strong trend.")
|
| 311 |
+
st.write("Price below both MAs and fast<slow = weak trend.")
|
| 312 |
+
|
| 313 |
+
# 2) Participation breadth (% above MAs)
|
| 314 |
+
st.write("**Participation breadth**")
|
| 315 |
+
st.write("Share above n-day MA:")
|
| 316 |
+
st.latex(r"\%\,\text{Above}_n(t)=100\cdot\frac{\#\{i:\ P_{i,t}>\mathrm{SMA}_{n,i}(t)\}}{N}")
|
| 317 |
+
st.write("Zones: 0–20 weak, 20–50 neutral, 50–80 strong.")
|
| 318 |
+
st.write("Higher shares mean broad support for the trend.")
|
| 319 |
+
|
| 320 |
+
# 3) Advance–Decline line
|
| 321 |
+
st.write("**Advance–Decline (A/D) line**")
|
| 322 |
+
st.latex(r"A_t=\#\{i:\ P_{i,t}>P_{i,t-1}\},\quad D_t=\#\{i:\ P_{i,t}<P_{i,t-1}\}")
|
| 323 |
+
st.latex(r"\mathrm{ADLine}_t=\sum_{u\le t}(A_u-D_u)")
|
| 324 |
+
st.write("Rising A/D confirms uptrends. Falling A/D warns of narrow leadership.")
|
| 325 |
+
|
| 326 |
+
# 4) Net new 52-week highs
|
| 327 |
+
st.write("**Net new 52-week highs**")
|
| 328 |
+
st.latex(r"H_{i,t}^{52}=\max_{u\in[t-251,t]}P_{i,u},\quad L_{i,t}^{52}=\min_{u\in[t-251,t]}P_{i,u}")
|
| 329 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{NewHighs}_t=\sum_i \mathbf{1}\{P_{i,t}=H_{i,t}^{52}\},\quad \text{NewLows}_t=\sum_i \mathbf{1}\{P_{i,t}=L_{i,t}^{52}\}")
|
| 330 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{NetHighs}_t=\text{NewHighs}_t-\text{NewLows}_t")
|
| 331 |
+
st.write("Positive and persistent net highs support trend durability.")
|
| 332 |
+
|
| 333 |
+
# 5) Smoothed advancing vs declining counts
|
| 334 |
+
st.write("**Advancing vs declining (smoothed)**")
|
| 335 |
+
st.latex(r"\overline{A}_t=\frac{1}{w}\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}A_{t-k},\quad \overline{D}_t=\frac{1}{w}\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}D_{t-k}")
|
| 336 |
+
st.write("Advancers > decliners over the window = constructive breadth.")
|
| 337 |
+
|
| 338 |
+
# 6) McClellan Oscillator
|
| 339 |
+
st.write("**McClellan Oscillator (MO)**")
|
| 340 |
+
st.latex(r"E^{(n)}_t=\text{EMA}_n(A_t-D_t)")
|
| 341 |
+
st.latex(r"\mathrm{MO}_t=E^{(19)}_t-E^{(39)}_t")
|
| 342 |
+
st.write("Zero-line up-cross = improving momentum. Down-cross = fading momentum.")
|
| 343 |
+
st.write("A 9-day EMA of MO can act as a signal line.")
|
| 344 |
+
|
| 345 |
+
# Practical reads
|
| 346 |
+
st.write("**Practical use**")
|
| 347 |
+
st.write("- Broad strength: % above 200-day ≥ 50% supports trends.")
|
| 348 |
+
st.write("- Divergences: index near highs without A/D or MO confirmation = caution.")
|
| 349 |
+
st.write("- Breadth thrust: sharp rise in % above 50-day to ≥ 55% with a +20pt jump can mark regime turns.")
|
| 350 |
+
st.write("- MO near recent extremes flags stretched short-term conditions.")
|
| 351 |
+
|
| 352 |
+
|
| 353 |
+
# --- Compute indicators (respecting sidebar params) ---
|
| 354 |
+
sma_fast_idx = idx.rolling(int(sma_fast), min_periods=int(sma_fast)).mean()
|
| 355 |
+
sma_slow_idx = idx.rolling(int(sma_slow), min_periods=int(sma_slow)).mean()
|
| 356 |
+
vwap_days = int(vwap_weeks) * 5
|
| 357 |
+
vwap_idx = (idx * idx_volume).rolling(vwap_days, min_periods=vwap_days).sum() / \
|
| 358 |
+
idx_volume.rolling(vwap_days, min_periods=vwap_days).sum()
|
| 359 |
+
|
| 360 |
+
sma_fast_all = clean_close.rolling(int(sma_fast), min_periods=int(sma_fast)).mean()
|
| 361 |
+
sma_slow_all = clean_close.rolling(int(sma_slow), min_periods=int(sma_slow)).mean()
|
| 362 |
+
pct_above_fast = (clean_close > sma_fast_all).sum(axis=1) / clean_close.shape[1] * 100
|
| 363 |
+
pct_above_slow = (clean_close > sma_slow_all).sum(axis=1) / clean_close.shape[1] * 100
|
| 364 |
+
|
| 365 |
+
advances = (clean_close.diff() > 0).sum(axis=1)
|
| 366 |
+
declines = (clean_close.diff() < 0).sum(axis=1)
|
| 367 |
+
ad_line = (advances - declines).cumsum()
|
| 368 |
+
|
| 369 |
+
window = int(ad_smooth)
|
| 370 |
+
avg_adv = advances.rolling(window, min_periods=window).mean()
|
| 371 |
+
avg_decl = declines.rolling(window, min_periods=window).mean()
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
high52 = clean_close.rolling(252, min_periods=252).max()
|
| 374 |
+
low52 = clean_close.rolling(252, min_periods=252).min()
|
| 375 |
+
new_highs = (clean_close == high52).sum(axis=1)
|
| 376 |
+
new_lows = (clean_close == low52).sum(axis=1)
|
| 377 |
+
net_highs = new_highs - new_lows
|
| 378 |
+
sma10_net_hi = net_highs.rolling(10, min_periods=10).mean()
|
| 379 |
+
|
| 380 |
+
net_adv = (advances - declines).astype("float64")
|
| 381 |
+
ema_fast = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_fast), adjust=False).mean()
|
| 382 |
+
ema_slow = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_slow), adjust=False).mean()
|
| 383 |
+
mc_osc = (ema_fast - ema_slow).rename("MO")
|
| 384 |
+
mo_pos = mc_osc.clip(lower=0)
|
| 385 |
+
mo_neg = mc_osc.clip(upper=0)
|
| 386 |
+
|
| 387 |
+
bound = float(np.nanpercentile(np.abs(mc_osc.dropna()), 99)) if mc_osc.notna().sum() else 20.0
|
| 388 |
+
bound = max(20.0, math.ceil(bound / 10.0) * 10.0)
|
| 389 |
+
|
| 390 |
+
# --- Plot (6 rows) ---
|
| 391 |
+
# --- Plot (6 rows) — dynamic date ticks on zoom, dark theme, white labels ---
|
| 392 |
+
fig = make_subplots(
|
| 393 |
+
rows=6, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.03,
|
| 394 |
+
subplot_titles=(
|
| 395 |
+
"S&P 500 Price / Fast MA / Slow MA / Weekly VWAP",
|
| 396 |
+
f"% Above {int(sma_fast)}d & {int(sma_slow)}d",
|
| 397 |
+
"Advance–Decline Line",
|
| 398 |
+
"Net New 52-Week Highs (bar) + 10d SMA",
|
| 399 |
+
f"Advancing vs Declining ({int(window)}d MA)",
|
| 400 |
+
f"McClellan Oscillator ({int(mo_span_fast)},{int(mo_span_slow)})"
|
| 401 |
+
)
|
| 402 |
+
)
|
| 403 |
+
|
| 404 |
+
# Enforce dark template + white annotation titles
|
| 405 |
+
fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark", font=dict(color="white"))
|
| 406 |
+
if hasattr(fig.layout, "annotations"):
|
| 407 |
+
for a in fig.layout.annotations:
|
| 408 |
+
a.font = dict(color="white", size=12)
|
| 409 |
+
|
| 410 |
+
# Row 1: Price + MAs + VWAP
|
| 411 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=idx.index, y=idx, name="S&P 500"), row=1, col=1)
|
| 412 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sma_fast_idx.index, y=sma_fast_idx, name=f"{int(sma_fast)}-day MA"), row=1, col=1)
|
| 413 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sma_slow_idx.index, y=sma_slow_idx, name=f"{int(sma_slow)}-day MA"), row=1, col=1)
|
| 414 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=vwap_idx.index, y=vwap_idx, name=f"{int(vwap_weeks)}-week VWAP"), row=1, col=1)
|
| 415 |
+
|
| 416 |
+
# Row 2: % Above MAs + zones
|
| 417 |
+
fig.add_hrect(y0=0, y1=20, line_width=0, fillcolor="red", opacity=0.3, row=2, col=1)
|
| 418 |
+
fig.add_hrect(y0=20, y1=50, line_width=0, fillcolor="yellow", opacity=0.3, row=2, col=1)
|
| 419 |
+
fig.add_hrect(y0=50, y1=80, line_width=0, fillcolor="green", opacity=0.3, row=2, col=1)
|
| 420 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=pct_above_fast.index, y=pct_above_fast, name=f"% Above {int(sma_fast)}d"), row=2, col=1)
|
| 421 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=pct_above_slow.index, y=pct_above_slow, name=f"% Above {int(sma_slow)}d"), row=2, col=1)
|
| 422 |
+
fig.add_annotation(x=0, xref="paper", y=10, yref="y2", text="Weak", showarrow=False, align="left", font=dict(color="white"))
|
| 423 |
+
fig.add_annotation(x=0, xref="paper", y=35, yref="y2", text="Neutral", showarrow=False, align="left", font=dict(color="white"))
|
| 424 |
+
fig.add_annotation(x=0, xref="paper", y=65, yref="y2", text="Strong", showarrow=False, align="left", font=dict(color="white"))
|
| 425 |
+
|
| 426 |
+
# Row 3: A/D Line
|
| 427 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=ad_line.index, y=ad_line, name="A/D Line"), row=3, col=1)
|
| 428 |
+
|
| 429 |
+
# Row 4: Net new highs + SMA
|
| 430 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Bar(x=net_highs.index, y=net_highs, name="Net New Highs", opacity=0.5), row=4, col=1)
|
| 431 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sma10_net_hi.index, y=sma10_net_hi, name="10-day SMA"), row=4, col=1)
|
| 432 |
+
|
| 433 |
+
# Row 5: Adv vs Decl (smoothed)
|
| 434 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=avg_adv.index, y=avg_adv, name=f"Adv ({int(window)}d MA)"), row=5, col=1)
|
| 435 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=avg_decl.index, y=avg_decl, name=f"Dec ({int(window)}d MA)"), row=5, col=1)
|
| 436 |
+
|
| 437 |
+
# Row 6: McClellan Oscillator histogram
|
| 438 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 439 |
+
go.Bar(
|
| 440 |
+
x=mo_pos.index, y=mo_pos, name="MO +",
|
| 441 |
+
marker=dict(color="#2ecc71", line=dict(width=0)),
|
| 442 |
+
hovertemplate="MO: %{y:.1f}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<extra></extra>",
|
| 443 |
+
showlegend=False
|
| 444 |
+
),
|
| 445 |
+
row=6, col=1
|
| 446 |
+
)
|
| 447 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 448 |
+
go.Bar(
|
| 449 |
+
x=mo_neg.index, y=mo_neg, name="MO -",
|
| 450 |
+
marker=dict(color="#e74c3c", line=dict(width=0)),
|
| 451 |
+
hovertemplate="MO: %{y:.1f}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<extra></extra>",
|
| 452 |
+
showlegend=False
|
| 453 |
+
),
|
| 454 |
+
row=6, col=1
|
| 455 |
+
)
|
| 456 |
+
fig.add_hline(y=0, line_width=1, line_dash="dash", line_color="rgba(180,180,180,0.8)", row=6, col=1)
|
| 457 |
+
|
| 458 |
+
# Axes styling (white ticks/titles, subtle grid) for ALL subplots
|
| 459 |
+
fig.update_xaxes(
|
| 460 |
+
ticklabelmode="period", # labels at period boundaries
|
| 461 |
+
tickformatstops=[
|
| 462 |
+
# < 1 day
|
| 463 |
+
dict(dtickrange=[None, 24*3600*1000], value="%b %d\n%Y"),
|
| 464 |
+
# 1 day .. 1 week
|
| 465 |
+
dict(dtickrange=[24*3600*1000, 7*24*3600*1000], value="%b %d"),
|
| 466 |
+
# 1 week .. 1 month
|
| 467 |
+
dict(dtickrange=[7*24*3600*1000, "M1"], value="%b %d\n%Y"),
|
| 468 |
+
# 1 .. 6 months
|
| 469 |
+
dict(dtickrange=["M1", "M6"], value="%b %Y"),
|
| 470 |
+
# 6+ months
|
| 471 |
+
dict(dtickrange=["M6", None], value="%Y"),
|
| 472 |
+
],
|
| 473 |
+
tickangle=0,
|
| 474 |
+
tickfont=dict(color="white"),
|
| 475 |
+
title_font=dict(color="white"),
|
| 476 |
+
showgrid=True, gridcolor="rgba(160,160,160,0.2)",
|
| 477 |
+
showline=True, linecolor="rgba(255,255,255,0.4)",
|
| 478 |
+
rangeslider_visible=False
|
| 479 |
+
)
|
| 480 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(
|
| 481 |
+
tickfont=dict(color="white"),
|
| 482 |
+
title_font=dict(color="white"),
|
| 483 |
+
showgrid=True, gridcolor="rgba(160,160,160,0.2)",
|
| 484 |
+
showline=True, linecolor="rgba(255,255,255,0.4)"
|
| 485 |
+
)
|
| 486 |
+
|
| 487 |
+
# Per-row y-axis titles / ranges
|
| 488 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Price", row=1, col=1)
|
| 489 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Percent", row=2, col=1, range=[0, 100])
|
| 490 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="A/D", row=3, col=1)
|
| 491 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Net", row=4, col=1)
|
| 492 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="Count", row=5, col=1)
|
| 493 |
+
fig.update_yaxes(title_text="MO", row=6, col=1, range=[-bound, bound], side="right")
|
| 494 |
+
|
| 495 |
+
# Bottom x-axis title
|
| 496 |
+
fig.update_xaxes(title_text="Date", row=6, col=1)
|
| 497 |
+
|
| 498 |
+
# Layout / legend
|
| 499 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 500 |
+
height=1350,
|
| 501 |
+
bargap=0.02,
|
| 502 |
+
barmode="relative",
|
| 503 |
+
legend=dict(
|
| 504 |
+
orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=1.02, xanchor="left", x=0,
|
| 505 |
+
font=dict(color="white")
|
| 506 |
+
),
|
| 507 |
+
margin=dict(l=60, r=20, t=40, b=40),
|
| 508 |
+
hovermode="x unified",
|
| 509 |
+
font=dict(color="white"),
|
| 510 |
+
title=dict(font=dict(color="white"))
|
| 511 |
+
)
|
| 512 |
+
|
| 513 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
|
| 514 |
+
|
| 515 |
+
# --- Dynamic interpretation (captured exactly as prints) ---
|
| 516 |
+
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
|
| 517 |
+
buf = io.StringIO()
|
| 518 |
+
|
| 519 |
+
def _last_val(s):
|
| 520 |
+
s = s.dropna()
|
| 521 |
+
return s.iloc[-1] if len(s) else np.nan
|
| 522 |
+
|
| 523 |
+
def _last_date(s):
|
| 524 |
+
s = s.dropna()
|
| 525 |
+
return s.index[-1] if len(s) else None
|
| 526 |
+
|
| 527 |
+
def _pct(a, b):
|
| 528 |
+
if not np.isfinite(a) or not np.isfinite(b) or b == 0:
|
| 529 |
+
return np.nan
|
| 530 |
+
return (a - b) / b * 100.0
|
| 531 |
+
|
| 532 |
+
def _fmt_pct(x):
|
| 533 |
+
return "n/a" if not np.isfinite(x) else f"{x:.1f}%"
|
| 534 |
+
|
| 535 |
+
def _fmt_num(x):
|
| 536 |
+
return "n/a" if not np.isfinite(x) else f"{x:,.2f}"
|
| 537 |
+
|
| 538 |
+
# Values
|
| 539 |
+
as_of = _last_date(idx)
|
| 540 |
+
|
| 541 |
+
px = _last_val(idx)
|
| 542 |
+
ma50 = _last_val(sma_fast_idx)
|
| 543 |
+
ma200 = _last_val(sma_slow_idx)
|
| 544 |
+
vwap200 = _last_val(vwap_idx)
|
| 545 |
+
|
| 546 |
+
p50 = float(_last_val(pct_above_fast))
|
| 547 |
+
p200 = float(_last_val(pct_above_slow))
|
| 548 |
+
|
| 549 |
+
ad_now = _last_val(ad_line)
|
| 550 |
+
nh_now = int(_last_val(new_highs)) if np.isfinite(_last_val(new_highs)) else 0
|
| 551 |
+
nh_sma = float(_last_val(sma10_net_hi))
|
| 552 |
+
|
| 553 |
+
avg_adv_last = float(_last_val(avg_adv))
|
| 554 |
+
avg_decl_last = float(_last_val(avg_decl))
|
| 555 |
+
|
| 556 |
+
_ema19 = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_fast), adjust=False).mean()
|
| 557 |
+
_ema39 = net_adv.ewm(span=int(mo_span_slow), adjust=False).mean()
|
| 558 |
+
mc_osc2 = (_ema19 - _ema39).rename("MO")
|
| 559 |
+
mc_signal = mc_osc2.ewm(span=int(mo_signal_span), adjust=False).mean().rename("Signal")
|
| 560 |
+
|
| 561 |
+
mo_last = float(_last_val(mc_osc2))
|
| 562 |
+
mo_prev = float(_last_val(mc_osc2.shift(1)))
|
| 563 |
+
mo_5ago = float(_last_val(mc_osc2.shift(5)))
|
| 564 |
+
mo_slope5 = mo_last - mo_5ago
|
| 565 |
+
mo_sig_last = float(_last_val(mc_signal))
|
| 566 |
+
mo_sig_prev = float(_last_val(mc_signal.shift(1)))
|
| 567 |
+
|
| 568 |
+
mo_roll = mc_osc2.rolling(252, min_periods=126)
|
| 569 |
+
mo_mean = mo_roll.mean()
|
| 570 |
+
mo_std = mo_roll.std()
|
| 571 |
+
mo_z = (mc_osc2 - mo_mean) / mo_std
|
| 572 |
+
mo_z_last = float(_last_val(mo_z))
|
| 573 |
+
|
| 574 |
+
mo_abs = np.abs(mc_osc2.dropna())
|
| 575 |
+
if len(mo_abs) >= 20:
|
| 576 |
+
mo_ext = float(np.nanpercentile(mo_abs.tail(252), 90))
|
| 577 |
+
else:
|
| 578 |
+
mo_ext = np.nan
|
| 579 |
+
|
| 580 |
+
look_fast = 10
|
| 581 |
+
look_mid = 20
|
| 582 |
+
look_div = 63
|
| 583 |
+
|
| 584 |
+
ma50_slope = _last_val(sma_fast_idx.diff(look_fast))
|
| 585 |
+
ma200_slope = _last_val(sma_slow_idx.diff(look_mid))
|
| 586 |
+
p50_chg = p50 - float(_last_val(pct_above_fast.shift(look_fast)))
|
| 587 |
+
p200_chg = p200 - float(_last_val(pct_above_slow.shift(look_fast)))
|
| 588 |
+
ad_mom = ad_now - float(_last_val(ad_line.shift(look_mid)))
|
| 589 |
+
|
| 590 |
+
d50 = _pct(px, ma50)
|
| 591 |
+
d200 = _pct(px, ma200)
|
| 592 |
+
dvw = _pct(px, vwap200)
|
| 593 |
+
h63 = float(_last_val(idx.rolling(look_div).max()))
|
| 594 |
+
dd63 = _pct(px, h63) if np.isfinite(h63) else np.nan
|
| 595 |
+
|
| 596 |
+
ad_63h = float(_last_val(ad_line.rolling(look_div).max()))
|
| 597 |
+
mo_63h = float(_last_val(mc_osc2.rolling(look_div).max()))
|
| 598 |
+
near_high_px = np.isfinite(h63) and np.isfinite(px) and px >= 0.995 * h63
|
| 599 |
+
near_high_ad = np.isfinite(ad_63h) and np.isfinite(ad_now) and ad_now >= 0.995 * ad_63h
|
| 600 |
+
near_high_mo = np.isfinite(mo_63h) and np.isfinite(mo_last) and mo_last >= 0.95 * mo_63h
|
| 601 |
+
|
| 602 |
+
breadth_thrust = (p50 >= 55) and (p50_chg >= 20)
|
| 603 |
+
|
| 604 |
+
score = 0
|
| 605 |
+
score += 1 if px > ma50 else 0
|
| 606 |
+
score += 1 if px > ma200 else 0
|
| 607 |
+
score += 1 if ma50 > ma200 else 0
|
| 608 |
+
score += 1 if ma50_slope > 0 else 0
|
| 609 |
+
score += 1 if p50 >= 50 else 0
|
| 610 |
+
score += 1 if p200 >= 50 else 0
|
| 611 |
+
score += 1 if ad_mom > 0 else 0
|
| 612 |
+
score += 1 if nh_now > 0 and nh_sma >= 0 else 0
|
| 613 |
+
score += 1 if avg_adv_last > avg_decl_last else 0
|
| 614 |
+
score += 1 if (mo_last > 0 and mo_slope5 > 0) else 0
|
| 615 |
+
|
| 616 |
+
if score >= 8:
|
| 617 |
+
regime = "Risk-on bias"
|
| 618 |
+
elif score >= 5:
|
| 619 |
+
regime = "Mixed bias"
|
| 620 |
+
else:
|
| 621 |
+
regime = "Risk-off bias"
|
| 622 |
+
|
| 623 |
+
print(f"=== Market breadth narrative — {as_of.date() if as_of is not None else 'N/A'} ===", file=buf)
|
| 624 |
+
|
| 625 |
+
# [Trend]
|
| 626 |
+
print("\n[Trend]", file=buf)
|
| 627 |
+
if np.isfinite(px) and np.isfinite(ma50) and np.isfinite(ma200):
|
| 628 |
+
print(
|
| 629 |
+
"The index is {px}, the 50-day is {ma50}, and the 200-day is {ma200}. "
|
| 630 |
+
"Price runs {d50} vs the 50-day and {d200} vs the 200-day. "
|
| 631 |
+
"The 50-day changed by {m50s} over {f} sessions and the 200-day changed by {m200s} over {m} sessions."
|
| 632 |
+
.format(
|
| 633 |
+
px=_fmt_num(px), ma50=_fmt_num(ma50), ma200=_fmt_num(ma200),
|
| 634 |
+
d50=_fmt_pct(d50), d200=_fmt_pct(d200),
|
| 635 |
+
m50s=f"{ma50_slope:+.2f}" if np.isfinite(ma50_slope) else "n/a",
|
| 636 |
+
m200s=f"{ma200_slope:+.2f}" if np.isfinite(ma200_slope) else "n/a",
|
| 637 |
+
f=look_fast, m=look_mid
|
| 638 |
+
), file=buf
|
| 639 |
+
)
|
| 640 |
+
if np.isfinite(vwap200):
|
| 641 |
+
print("The index is {dvw} versus the 200-week VWAP.".format(dvw=_fmt_pct(dvw)), file=buf)
|
| 642 |
+
if np.isfinite(dd63):
|
| 643 |
+
print("Distance from the 3-month high is {dd}.".format(dd=_fmt_pct(dd63)), file=buf)
|
| 644 |
+
if px > ma50 and ma50 > ma200:
|
| 645 |
+
print("Structure is bullish: price above both averages and the fast above the slow.", file=buf)
|
| 646 |
+
elif px < ma50 and ma50 < ma200:
|
| 647 |
+
print("Structure is bearish: price below both averages and the fast below the slow.", file=buf)
|
| 648 |
+
else:
|
| 649 |
+
print("Structure is mixed: levels are not aligned.", file=buf)
|
| 650 |
+
else:
|
| 651 |
+
print("Trend inputs are incomplete.", file=buf)
|
| 652 |
+
|
| 653 |
+
# [Participation]
|
| 654 |
+
print("\n[Participation]", file=buf)
|
| 655 |
+
if np.isfinite(p50) and np.isfinite(p200):
|
| 656 |
+
print(
|
| 657 |
+
"{p50} of members sit above the 50-day and {p200} above the 200-day. "
|
| 658 |
+
"The 50-day share moved {p50chg} over {f} sessions, and the 200-day share moved {p200chg}."
|
| 659 |
+
.format(
|
| 660 |
+
p50=f"{p50:.1f}%", p200=f"{p200:.1f}%",
|
| 661 |
+
p50chg=f"{p50_chg:+.1f} pts", p200chg=f"{p200_chg:+.1f} pts", f=look_fast
|
| 662 |
+
), file=buf
|
| 663 |
+
)
|
| 664 |
+
if p50 < 20 and p200 < 20:
|
| 665 |
+
print("Participation is very weak across both horizons.", file=buf)
|
| 666 |
+
elif p50 < 50 and p200 < 50:
|
| 667 |
+
print("Participation is weak; leadership is narrow.", file=buf)
|
| 668 |
+
elif p50 >= 50 and p200 < 50:
|
| 669 |
+
print("Short-term breadth improved, long-term base still soft.", file=buf)
|
| 670 |
+
elif p50 >= 50 and p200 >= 50:
|
| 671 |
+
print("Participation is broad and supportive.", file=buf)
|
| 672 |
+
if breadth_thrust:
|
| 673 |
+
print("The 50-day breadth jump qualifies as a breadth thrust.", file=buf)
|
| 674 |
+
else:
|
| 675 |
+
print("Breadth percentages are missing.", file=buf)
|
| 676 |
+
|
| 677 |
+
# [Advance–Decline]
|
| 678 |
+
print("\n[Advance–Decline]", file=buf)
|
| 679 |
+
if np.isfinite(ad_now):
|
| 680 |
+
print(
|
| 681 |
+
"A/D momentum over {m} sessions is {admom:+.0f}. "
|
| 682 |
+
"Price is {pxnear} a 3-month high and A/D is {adnear} the same mark."
|
| 683 |
+
.format(
|
| 684 |
+
m=look_mid, admom=ad_mom,
|
| 685 |
+
pxnear="near" if near_high_px else "not near",
|
| 686 |
+
adnear="near" if near_high_ad else "not near"
|
| 687 |
+
), file=buf
|
| 688 |
+
)
|
| 689 |
+
if near_high_px and not near_high_ad:
|
| 690 |
+
print("Price tested highs without A/D confirmation.", file=buf)
|
| 691 |
+
elif near_high_px and near_high_ad:
|
| 692 |
+
print("Price and A/D both near recent highs.", file=buf)
|
| 693 |
+
elif (not near_high_px) and near_high_ad:
|
| 694 |
+
print("A/D improved while price lagged.", file=buf)
|
| 695 |
+
else:
|
| 696 |
+
print("No short-term confirmation signal.", file=buf)
|
| 697 |
+
else:
|
| 698 |
+
print("A/D data is unavailable.", file=buf)
|
| 699 |
+
|
| 700 |
+
# [McClellan Oscillator]
|
| 701 |
+
print("\n[McClellan Oscillator]", file=buf)
|
| 702 |
+
if np.isfinite(mo_last):
|
| 703 |
+
zero_cross_up = (mo_prev < 0) and (mo_last >= 0)
|
| 704 |
+
zero_cross_down = (mo_prev > 0) and (mo_last <= 0)
|
| 705 |
+
sig_cross_up = (mo_prev <= mo_sig_prev) and (mo_last > mo_sig_last)
|
| 706 |
+
sig_cross_down = (mo_prev >= mo_sig_prev) and (mo_last < mo_sig_last)
|
| 707 |
+
near_extreme = np.isfinite(mo_ext) and (abs(mo_last) >= 0.9 * mo_ext)
|
| 708 |
+
|
| 709 |
+
print(
|
| 710 |
+
"MO prints {mo:+.1f} with a 9-day signal at {sig:+.1f}. "
|
| 711 |
+
"Five-day slope is {slope:+.1f}. Z-score over 1y is {z}."
|
| 712 |
+
.format(
|
| 713 |
+
mo=mo_last, sig=mo_sig_last, slope=mo_slope5,
|
| 714 |
+
z=f"{mo_z_last:.2f}" if np.isfinite(mo_z_last) else "n/a"
|
| 715 |
+
), file=buf
|
| 716 |
+
)
|
| 717 |
+
|
| 718 |
+
if zero_cross_up:
|
| 719 |
+
print("Bullish zero-line cross: momentum turned positive.", file=buf)
|
| 720 |
+
if zero_cross_down:
|
| 721 |
+
print("Bearish zero-line cross: momentum turned negative.", file=buf)
|
| 722 |
+
if sig_cross_up:
|
| 723 |
+
print("Bullish signal cross: MO moved above its 9-day signal.", file=buf)
|
| 724 |
+
if sig_cross_down:
|
| 725 |
+
print("Bearish signal cross: MO fell below its 9-day signal.", file=buf)
|
| 726 |
+
|
| 727 |
+
if near_extreme:
|
| 728 |
+
tag = "positive" if mo_last > 0 else "negative"
|
| 729 |
+
print(f"MO is near a recent {tag} extreme by distribution.", file=buf)
|
| 730 |
+
elif np.isfinite(mo_ext):
|
| 731 |
+
print(f"Recent absolute extreme band is about ±{mo_ext:.0f}.", file=buf)
|
| 732 |
+
|
| 733 |
+
if near_high_px and not near_high_mo:
|
| 734 |
+
print("Price near short-term highs without a matching MO high.", file=buf)
|
| 735 |
+
if (not near_high_px) and near_high_mo:
|
| 736 |
+
print("MO near a short-term high while price lags.", file=buf)
|
| 737 |
+
else:
|
| 738 |
+
print("MO series is unavailable.", file=buf)
|
| 739 |
+
|
| 740 |
+
# [New Highs vs Lows]
|
| 741 |
+
print("\n[New Highs vs Lows]", file=buf)
|
| 742 |
+
if np.isfinite(nh_sma):
|
| 743 |
+
if nh_now > 0 and nh_sma >= 0:
|
| 744 |
+
print("Net new highs are positive and the 10-day trend is non-negative.", file=buf)
|
| 745 |
+
elif nh_now < 0 and nh_sma <= 0:
|
| 746 |
+
print("Net new lows dominate and the 10-day trend is negative.", file=buf)
|
| 747 |
+
else:
|
| 748 |
+
print("Daily print and 10-day trend disagree; signal is mixed.", file=buf)
|
| 749 |
+
else:
|
| 750 |
+
print("High/low series is incomplete.", file=buf)
|
| 751 |
+
|
| 752 |
+
# [Advancing vs Declining]
|
| 753 |
+
print("\n[Advancing vs Declining]", file=buf)
|
| 754 |
+
if np.isfinite(avg_adv_last) and np.isfinite(avg_decl_last):
|
| 755 |
+
spread = avg_adv_last - avg_decl_last
|
| 756 |
+
print(
|
| 757 |
+
"On a {w}-day smoothing window, advancers average {adv:.0f} and decliners {dec:.0f}. Net spread is {spr:+.0f}."
|
| 758 |
+
.format(w=window, adv=avg_adv_last, dec=avg_decl_last, spr=spread), file=buf
|
| 759 |
+
)
|
| 760 |
+
if spread > 0:
|
| 761 |
+
print("The spread favors advancers.", file=buf)
|
| 762 |
+
elif spread < 0:
|
| 763 |
+
print("The spread favors decliners.", file=buf)
|
| 764 |
+
else:
|
| 765 |
+
print("Advancers and decliners are balanced.", file=buf)
|
| 766 |
+
else:
|
| 767 |
+
print("Smoothed A/D data is missing.", file=buf)
|
| 768 |
+
|
| 769 |
+
# [Aggregate]
|
| 770 |
+
print("\n[Aggregate]", file=buf)
|
| 771 |
+
print("Composite score is {score}/10 → {regime}.".format(score=score, regime=regime), file=buf)
|
| 772 |
+
if regime == "Risk-on bias":
|
| 773 |
+
if p200 >= 60 and ma200_slope > 0 and mo_last > 0:
|
| 774 |
+
print("Long-term breadth and MO agree; pullbacks above the 50-day tend to be buyable.", file=buf)
|
| 775 |
+
else:
|
| 776 |
+
print("Tone is supportive; watch the 200-day and MO zero-line for confirmation.", file=buf)
|
| 777 |
+
elif regime == "Mixed bias":
|
| 778 |
+
print("Signals diverge; manage size and tighten risk until MO and breadth align.", file=buf)
|
| 779 |
+
else:
|
| 780 |
+
if p200 <= 40 and ma200_slope < 0 and mo_last < 0:
|
| 781 |
+
print("Weak long-term breadth with negative MO argues for caution.", file=buf)
|
| 782 |
+
else:
|
| 783 |
+
print("Bias leans defensive until breadth steadies and MO turns up.", file=buf)
|
| 784 |
+
|
| 785 |
+
# [What to monitor]
|
| 786 |
+
print("\n[What to monitor]", file=buf)
|
| 787 |
+
print("Watch the 200-day breadth around 50% for confirmation of durable trends.", file=buf)
|
| 788 |
+
print("Track MO zero-line and signal crosses during price tests of resistance.", file=buf)
|
| 789 |
+
print("Look for steady positive net new highs over a 10-day window.", file=buf)
|
| 790 |
+
|
| 791 |
+
st.text(buf.getvalue())
|
| 792 |
+
|
| 793 |
+
# ===================== SECTION 2 — Rebased Comparison =====================
|
| 794 |
+
st.header("Rebased Comparison (Last N sessions)")
|
| 795 |
+
|
| 796 |
+
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
|
| 797 |
+
st.write("Compares stock paths on a common scale and highlights leadership vs laggards.")
|
| 798 |
+
st.write("Use it to judge breadth, concentration, and dispersion over the selected window.")
|
| 799 |
+
|
| 800 |
+
st.write("**Rebasing (start = B)**")
|
| 801 |
+
st.latex(r"R_{i,t}= \frac{P_{i,t}}{P_{i,t_0}}\times B")
|
| 802 |
+
st.write("Each line shows cumulative performance since the window start.")
|
| 803 |
+
st.write("The index is rebased the same way for reference.")
|
| 804 |
+
|
| 805 |
+
st.write("**Log scale**")
|
| 806 |
+
st.write("We plot the y-axis in log scale so equal percent moves look equal.")
|
| 807 |
+
st.write("Y-range uses robust bounds (1st–99th percentiles) with padding.")
|
| 808 |
+
|
| 809 |
+
st.write("**Leaders and laggards**")
|
| 810 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{Perf}_{i}=R_{i,T}")
|
| 811 |
+
st.write("Leaders are highest Perf at T. Laggards are lowest.")
|
| 812 |
+
st.write("MAG7 are highlighted if present.")
|
| 813 |
+
|
| 814 |
+
st.write("**Equal-weight summaries**")
|
| 815 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{EWAvg}_T=\frac{1}{M}\sum_{i=1}^{M}R_{i,T}")
|
| 816 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{Median}_T=\operatorname{median}\{R_{i,T}\}")
|
| 817 |
+
st.latex(r"\%\text{Up}_T=100\cdot \frac{1}{M}\sum_{i=1}^{M}\mathbf{1}[R_{i,T}>B]")
|
| 818 |
+
st.latex(r"\%\text{BeatIdx}_T=100\cdot \frac{1}{M}\sum_{i=1}^{M}\mathbf{1}[R_{i,T}>R_{\text{idx},T}]")
|
| 819 |
+
st.write("These give a breadth read relative to the index and to flat (B).")
|
| 820 |
+
|
| 821 |
+
st.write("**Dispersion (cross-section)**")
|
| 822 |
+
st.latex(r"\sigma_T=\operatorname{stdev}\{R_{i,T}\},\quad \text{IQR}_T=Q_{0.75}-Q_{0.25}")
|
| 823 |
+
st.write("High dispersion means large performance spread across names.")
|
| 824 |
+
|
| 825 |
+
st.write("**Concentration (top N share of gains)**")
|
| 826 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{TopNShare}_T=\frac{\sum_{i\in \text{Top}N}(R_{i,T}-B)}{\sum_{j=1}^{M}(R_{j,T}-B)}\times 100")
|
| 827 |
+
st.write("Large TopNShare implies leadership is concentrated.")
|
| 828 |
+
|
| 829 |
+
st.write("**Correlation to index (optional diagnostic)**")
|
| 830 |
+
st.latex(r"\rho_i=\operatorname{corr}\big(\Delta \ln P_{i,t},\, \Delta \ln P_{\text{idx},t}\big)")
|
| 831 |
+
st.write("Lower median correlation favors stock picking. High correlation means beta drives moves.")
|
| 832 |
+
|
| 833 |
+
st.write("**Practical reads**")
|
| 834 |
+
st.write("- Broad advance: many lines above the index and %BeatIdx high.")
|
| 835 |
+
st.write("- Concentration risk: TopNShare large while most lines trail the index.")
|
| 836 |
+
st.write("- Rotation/dispersion: high cross-section std and lower median correlation.")
|
| 837 |
+
st.write("- Leadership quality: leaders holding gains on a log scale with limited drawdowns.")
|
| 838 |
+
|
| 839 |
+
n_days = int(rebase_days)
|
| 840 |
+
base = float(rebase_base)
|
| 841 |
+
|
| 842 |
+
recent = clean_close.iloc[-n_days:].dropna(axis=1, how="any")
|
| 843 |
+
if recent.empty:
|
| 844 |
+
st.warning("Not enough overlapping history for the rebased comparison window.")
|
| 845 |
+
else:
|
| 846 |
+
first = recent.iloc[0]
|
| 847 |
+
mask = (first > 0) & np.isfinite(first)
|
| 848 |
+
rebased = (recent.loc[:, mask] / first[mask]) * base
|
| 849 |
+
|
| 850 |
+
perf = rebased.iloc[-1].dropna()
|
| 851 |
+
mag7_all = ["AAPL","MSFT","AMZN","META","GOOGL","NVDA","TSLA"]
|
| 852 |
+
mag7 = [t for t in mag7_all if t in rebased.columns]
|
| 853 |
+
non_mag = perf.drop(index=mag7, errors="ignore")
|
| 854 |
+
top5 = non_mag.nlargest(min(5, len(non_mag))).index.tolist()
|
| 855 |
+
worst5 = non_mag.nsmallest(min(5, len(non_mag))).index.tolist()
|
| 856 |
+
|
| 857 |
+
mag_colors = {
|
| 858 |
+
"AAPL":"#00bfff","MSFT":"#3cb44b","AMZN":"#ffe119",
|
| 859 |
+
"META":"#4363d8","GOOGL":"#f58231","NVDA":"#911eb4","TSLA":"#46f0f0"
|
| 860 |
+
}
|
| 861 |
+
|
| 862 |
+
spx = idx.reindex(rebased.index).dropna()
|
| 863 |
+
spx_rebased = spx / spx.iloc[0] * base
|
| 864 |
+
|
| 865 |
+
def hover_tmpl(name: str) -> str:
|
| 866 |
+
return "%{y:.2f}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<extra>" + name + "</extra>"
|
| 867 |
+
|
| 868 |
+
fig2 = go.Figure()
|
| 869 |
+
for t in rebased.columns:
|
| 870 |
+
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 871 |
+
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=t, mode="lines",
|
| 872 |
+
line=dict(width=1, color="rgba(160,160,160,0.4)"),
|
| 873 |
+
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t), showlegend=False
|
| 874 |
+
))
|
| 875 |
+
for t in mag7:
|
| 876 |
+
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 877 |
+
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=t, mode="lines",
|
| 878 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color=mag_colors.get(t, "#ffffff")),
|
| 879 |
+
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t)
|
| 880 |
+
))
|
| 881 |
+
for t in top5:
|
| 882 |
+
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 883 |
+
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=f"Top {t}", mode="lines",
|
| 884 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color="lime"),
|
| 885 |
+
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t), showlegend=False
|
| 886 |
+
))
|
| 887 |
+
for t in worst5:
|
| 888 |
+
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 889 |
+
x=rebased.index, y=rebased[t], name=f"Worst {t}", mode="lines",
|
| 890 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color="red", dash="dash"),
|
| 891 |
+
hovertemplate=hover_tmpl(t), showlegend=False
|
| 892 |
+
))
|
| 893 |
+
fig2.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 894 |
+
x=spx_rebased.index, y=spx_rebased.values, name="S&P 500 (rebased)", mode="lines",
|
| 895 |
+
line=dict(width=3, color="white"), hovertemplate=hover_tmpl("S&P 500")
|
| 896 |
+
))
|
| 897 |
+
|
| 898 |
+
vals = pd.concat([rebased.stack(), pd.Series(spx_rebased.values, index=spx_rebased.index)])
|
| 899 |
+
vals = vals.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna()
|
| 900 |
+
vals = vals[vals > 0]
|
| 901 |
+
y_range = None
|
| 902 |
+
if len(vals) > 10:
|
| 903 |
+
qlo, qhi = vals.quantile([0.01, 0.99])
|
| 904 |
+
y_min = max(1e-2, qlo / y_pad)
|
| 905 |
+
y_max = max(y_min * 1.1, qhi * y_pad)
|
| 906 |
+
y_range = [np.log10(y_min), np.log10(y_max)]
|
| 907 |
+
|
| 908 |
+
fig2.update_yaxes(type="log", range=y_range, title=f"Rebased Price (start = {int(base)})")
|
| 909 |
+
fig2.update_xaxes(title="Date")
|
| 910 |
+
fig2.update_layout(
|
| 911 |
+
template="plotly_dark",
|
| 912 |
+
height=700,
|
| 913 |
+
margin=dict(l=60, r=30, t=70, b=90),
|
| 914 |
+
title=f"Price Level Comparison (Rebased, Log Scale) — Last {n_days} Sessions",
|
| 915 |
+
legend=dict(orientation="h", y=-0.18, yanchor="top", x=0, xanchor="left"),
|
| 916 |
+
hovermode="closest",
|
| 917 |
+
font=dict(color="white")
|
| 918 |
+
)
|
| 919 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig2, use_container_width=True)
|
| 920 |
+
|
| 921 |
+
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
|
| 922 |
+
buf2 = io.StringIO()
|
| 923 |
+
|
| 924 |
+
def _fmt_pct(x):
|
| 925 |
+
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x:.1f}%"
|
| 926 |
+
|
| 927 |
+
def _fmt_num(x):
|
| 928 |
+
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x:,.2f}"
|
| 929 |
+
|
| 930 |
+
if rebased.empty or spx_rebased.empty:
|
| 931 |
+
print("No data for interpretation.", file=buf2)
|
| 932 |
+
else:
|
| 933 |
+
as_of = rebased.index[-1].date()
|
| 934 |
+
perf_last = rebased.iloc[-1].dropna()
|
| 935 |
+
spx_last = float(spx_rebased.iloc[-1])
|
| 936 |
+
n_names = len(perf_last)
|
| 937 |
+
eq_avg = float(perf_last.mean())
|
| 938 |
+
eq_med = float(perf_last.median())
|
| 939 |
+
pct_pos = float((perf_last > base).mean() * 100)
|
| 940 |
+
pct_beat = float((perf_last > spx_last).mean() * 100)
|
| 941 |
+
disp_std = float(perf_last.std(ddof=0))
|
| 942 |
+
iqr_lo, iqr_hi = float(perf_last.quantile(0.25)), float(perf_last.quantile(0.75))
|
| 943 |
+
iqr_w = iqr_hi - iqr_lo
|
| 944 |
+
|
| 945 |
+
mag7_in = [t for t in mag7 if t in perf_last.index]
|
| 946 |
+
rest_idx = perf_last.index.difference(mag7_in)
|
| 947 |
+
mag7_mean = float(perf_last[mag7_in].mean()) if len(mag7_in) else np.nan
|
| 948 |
+
rest_mean = float(perf_last[rest_idx].mean()) if len(rest_idx) else np.nan
|
| 949 |
+
mag7_beat = float((perf_last[mag7_in] > spx_last).mean() * 100) if len(mag7_in) else np.nan
|
| 950 |
+
|
| 951 |
+
gains_all = float((perf_last - base).sum())
|
| 952 |
+
topN = 10
|
| 953 |
+
top_contrib = np.nan
|
| 954 |
+
if abs(gains_all) > 1e-9:
|
| 955 |
+
top_contrib = float((perf_last.sort_values(ascending=False).head(topN) - base).sum() / gains_all * 100)
|
| 956 |
+
|
| 957 |
+
rets = rebased.pct_change().replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna(how="all")
|
| 958 |
+
spx_r = pd.Series(spx_rebased, index=spx_rebased.index).pct_change()
|
| 959 |
+
corr_to_spx = rets.corrwith(spx_r, axis=0).dropna()
|
| 960 |
+
corr_med = float(corr_to_spx.median()) if len(corr_to_spx) else np.nan
|
| 961 |
+
low_corr_share = float((corr_to_spx < 0.3).mean() * 100) if len(corr_to_spx) else np.nan
|
| 962 |
+
|
| 963 |
+
spx_chg = spx_last - base
|
| 964 |
+
k = min(5, n_names)
|
| 965 |
+
leaders = perf_last.sort_values(ascending=False).head(k)
|
| 966 |
+
laggards = perf_last.sort_values(ascending=True).head(k)
|
| 967 |
+
|
| 968 |
+
print(f"=== Rebased performance read — {as_of} (window: {n_days} sessions) ===\n", file=buf2)
|
| 969 |
+
print("[Market]", file=buf2)
|
| 970 |
+
print(f"S&P 500 is {_fmt_pct(spx_chg)} over the window.", file=buf2)
|
| 971 |
+
print(f"Equal-weight average is {_fmt_pct(eq_avg - base)}, median is {_fmt_pct(eq_med - base)}.", file=buf2)
|
| 972 |
+
if np.isfinite(eq_avg) and np.isfinite(spx_last):
|
| 973 |
+
gap = (eq_avg - spx_last)
|
| 974 |
+
side = "above" if gap >= 0 else "below"
|
| 975 |
+
print(f"Equal-weight sits {_fmt_pct(abs(gap))} {side} the index.", file=buf2)
|
| 976 |
+
print("", file=buf2)
|
| 977 |
+
|
| 978 |
+
print("[Breadth]", file=buf2)
|
| 979 |
+
print(f"{_fmt_pct(pct_pos)} of names are up. {_fmt_pct(pct_beat)} beat the index.", file=buf2)
|
| 980 |
+
print(f"Dispersion std is {_fmt_num(disp_std)} points on the rebased scale.", file=buf2)
|
| 981 |
+
print(f"IQR width is {_fmt_num(iqr_w)} points ({_fmt_num(iqr_lo)} to {_fmt_num(iqr_hi)}).", file=buf2)
|
| 982 |
+
if pct_pos >= 70 and pct_beat >= 55:
|
| 983 |
+
print("Rally is broad. Leadership is shared across many names.", file=buf2)
|
| 984 |
+
elif pct_pos <= 35 and pct_beat <= 45:
|
| 985 |
+
print("Rally is narrow or absent. Leadership is concentrated.", file=buf2)
|
| 986 |
+
else:
|
| 987 |
+
print("Breadth is mixed. The tape can rotate quickly.", file=buf2)
|
| 988 |
+
print("", file=buf2)
|
| 989 |
+
|
| 990 |
+
print("[Concentration]", file=buf2)
|
| 991 |
+
if np.isfinite(top_contrib):
|
| 992 |
+
print(f"Top {topN} names explain {_fmt_pct(top_contrib)} of equal-weight gains.", file=buf2)
|
| 993 |
+
if len(mag7_in):
|
| 994 |
+
print(f"MAG7 equal-weight is {_fmt_pct(mag7_mean - base)}. Rest is {_fmt_pct(rest_mean - base)}.", file=buf2)
|
| 995 |
+
if np.isfinite(mag7_beat):
|
| 996 |
+
print(f"{_fmt_pct(mag7_beat)} of MAG7 beat the index.", file=buf2)
|
| 997 |
+
else:
|
| 998 |
+
print("MAG7 tickers are not all present in this window.", file=buf2)
|
| 999 |
+
print("", file=buf2)
|
| 1000 |
+
|
| 1001 |
+
print("[Correlation]", file=buf2)
|
| 1002 |
+
if len(corr_to_spx):
|
| 1003 |
+
print(f"Median correlation to the index is {_fmt_num(corr_med)}.", file=buf2)
|
| 1004 |
+
print(f"{_fmt_pct(low_corr_share)} of names show low correlation (<0.30).", file=buf2)
|
| 1005 |
+
if np.isfinite(corr_med) and corr_med < 0.5:
|
| 1006 |
+
print("Factor dispersion is high. Stock picking matters more.", file=buf2)
|
| 1007 |
+
elif np.isfinite(corr_med) and corr_med > 0.8:
|
| 1008 |
+
print("Common beta dominates. Moves are index-driven.", file=buf2)
|
| 1009 |
+
else:
|
| 1010 |
+
print("Correlation sits in a middle zone. Rotation can continue.", file=buf2)
|
| 1011 |
+
else:
|
| 1012 |
+
print("Not enough data to compute correlations.", file=buf2)
|
| 1013 |
+
print("", file=buf2)
|
| 1014 |
+
|
| 1015 |
+
print("[Leaders]", file=buf2)
|
| 1016 |
+
for t, v in leaders.items():
|
| 1017 |
+
print(f" {t}: {_fmt_pct(v - base)}", file=buf2)
|
| 1018 |
+
|
| 1019 |
+
print("\n[Laggards]", file=buf2)
|
| 1020 |
+
for t, v in laggards.items():
|
| 1021 |
+
print(f" {t}: {_fmt_pct(v - base)}", file=buf2)
|
| 1022 |
+
|
| 1023 |
+
print("\n[What to monitor]", file=buf2)
|
| 1024 |
+
print("Watch the gap between equal-weight and index. A widening gap signals concentration risk.", file=buf2)
|
| 1025 |
+
print("Track the share beating the index. Sustained readings above 55% support trend durability.", file=buf2)
|
| 1026 |
+
print("Watch median correlation. Falling correlation favors dispersion and relative value setups.", file=buf2)
|
| 1027 |
+
|
| 1028 |
+
st.text(buf2.getvalue())
|
| 1029 |
+
|
| 1030 |
+
# ===================== SECTION 3 — Daily Return Heatmap =====================
|
| 1031 |
+
st.header("Daily Return Heatmap")
|
| 1032 |
+
|
| 1033 |
+
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
|
| 1034 |
+
st.write("Shows daily % returns for all names over the selected window. Highlights broad up/down days, dispersion, and leadership.")
|
| 1035 |
+
st.write("Use it to spot synchronized moves, stress days, and rotation across the universe.")
|
| 1036 |
+
|
| 1037 |
+
st.write("**Daily return (per name)**")
|
| 1038 |
+
st.latex(r"r_{i,t}=\frac{P_{i,t}}{P_{i,t-1}}-1")
|
| 1039 |
+
|
| 1040 |
+
st.write("**Heatmap values**")
|
| 1041 |
+
st.write("Cells display r_{i,t}. Tickers are sorted by the most recent day’s return so leaders/laggards are obvious.")
|
| 1042 |
+
|
| 1043 |
+
st.write("**Robust color scale (cap extremes)**")
|
| 1044 |
+
st.latex(r"c=\operatorname{P95}\left(\left|r_{i,t}\right|\right)\ \text{over the window}")
|
| 1045 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{color range}=[-c,\,+c],\quad \text{midpoint}=0")
|
| 1046 |
+
st.write("Capping avoids a few outliers overpowering the color scale.")
|
| 1047 |
+
|
| 1048 |
+
st.write("**Breadth and dispersion (how to read)**")
|
| 1049 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{Up share}_t=100\cdot \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N}\mathbf{1}[r_{i,t}>0]")
|
| 1050 |
+
st.latex(r"\sigma_{\text{cs},t}=\operatorname{stdev}\{r_{i,t}\}_{i=1}^{N}")
|
| 1051 |
+
st.write("- High up share with low dispersion = uniform risk-on.")
|
| 1052 |
+
st.write("- Mixed colors with high dispersion = rotation and factor spread.")
|
| 1053 |
+
st.write("- Clusters of red/green by industry often flag sector moves.")
|
| 1054 |
+
|
| 1055 |
+
st.write("**Large-move counts (quick context)**")
|
| 1056 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{BigUp}_t=\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[r_{i,t}\ge \tau],\quad \text{BigDn}_t=\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[r_{i,t}\le -\tau]")
|
| 1057 |
+
st.latex(r"\tau=2\% \ \text{(default)}")
|
| 1058 |
+
st.write("A jump in BigUp/BigDn signals a thrust or a shock day.")
|
| 1059 |
+
|
| 1060 |
+
st.write("**Short-horizon follow-through**")
|
| 1061 |
+
st.latex(r"\bar{r}_{i,t}^{(w)}=\frac{1}{w}\sum_{k=0}^{w-1} r_{i,t-k},\quad w=5")
|
| 1062 |
+
st.write("A broad rise in 5-day averages supports continuation; a fade warns of stall.")
|
| 1063 |
+
|
| 1064 |
+
st.write("**Practical reads**")
|
| 1065 |
+
st.write("- Many greens, low dispersion: beta tailwind; index setups work.")
|
| 1066 |
+
st.write("- Greens + high dispersion: stock picking/sector tilts matter.")
|
| 1067 |
+
st.write("- Reds concentrated in a few groups: rotate risk, not necessarily de-risk.")
|
| 1068 |
+
st.write("- Extreme red breadth with spikes in dispersion: watch liquidity and reduce gross.")
|
| 1069 |
+
|
| 1070 |
+
|
| 1071 |
+
# Daily returns last N days
|
| 1072 |
+
ret_daily = clean_close.pct_change().iloc[1:]
|
| 1073 |
+
ret_window = int(heat_last_days)
|
| 1074 |
+
ret_last = ret_daily.iloc[-ret_window:]
|
| 1075 |
+
if ret_last.empty:
|
| 1076 |
+
st.warning("Not enough data for the daily return heatmap.")
|
| 1077 |
+
else:
|
| 1078 |
+
order = ret_last.iloc[-1].sort_values(ascending=True).index
|
| 1079 |
+
ret_last = ret_last[order]
|
| 1080 |
+
|
| 1081 |
+
abs_max = np.nanpercentile(np.abs(ret_last.values), 95)
|
| 1082 |
+
z = ret_last.T.values
|
| 1083 |
+
x = ret_last.index
|
| 1084 |
+
y = list(order)
|
| 1085 |
+
|
| 1086 |
+
n_dates = len(x)
|
| 1087 |
+
step = max(1, n_dates // 10)
|
| 1088 |
+
xtick_vals = x[::step]
|
| 1089 |
+
xtick_texts = [ts.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for ts in xtick_vals]
|
| 1090 |
+
|
| 1091 |
+
fig_hm = go.Figure(go.Heatmap(
|
| 1092 |
+
z=z, x=x, y=y,
|
| 1093 |
+
colorscale="RdYlGn",
|
| 1094 |
+
zmin=-abs_max, zmax=abs_max, zmid=0,
|
| 1095 |
+
colorbar=dict(title="Daily Return", tickformat=".0%"),
|
| 1096 |
+
hovertemplate="%{y}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<br>%{z:.2%}<extra></extra>"
|
| 1097 |
+
))
|
| 1098 |
+
|
| 1099 |
+
height = max(800, min(3200, 18 * len(y)))
|
| 1100 |
+
fig_hm.update_layout(
|
| 1101 |
+
template="plotly_dark",
|
| 1102 |
+
title=f"Last {ret_window}-Day Daily Return Heatmap",
|
| 1103 |
+
height=height,
|
| 1104 |
+
margin=dict(l=100, r=40, t=60, b=60),
|
| 1105 |
+
font=dict(color="white")
|
| 1106 |
+
)
|
| 1107 |
+
fig_hm.update_yaxes(title="Tickers (sorted by latest daily return)", tickfont=dict(size=8))
|
| 1108 |
+
fig_hm.update_xaxes(title="Date", tickmode="array", tickvals=xtick_vals, ticktext=xtick_texts, tickangle=45)
|
| 1109 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig_hm, use_container_width=True)
|
| 1110 |
+
|
| 1111 |
+
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
|
| 1112 |
+
buf3 = io.StringIO()
|
| 1113 |
+
|
| 1114 |
+
def _pct(x):
|
| 1115 |
+
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x*100:.1f}%"
|
| 1116 |
+
|
| 1117 |
+
def _pp(x):
|
| 1118 |
+
return "n/a" if pd.isna(x) else f"{x*100:.2f}%"
|
| 1119 |
+
|
| 1120 |
+
if ret_last.empty:
|
| 1121 |
+
print("No data for interpretation.", file=buf3)
|
| 1122 |
+
else:
|
| 1123 |
+
as_of = ret_last.index[-1].date()
|
| 1124 |
+
last = ret_last.iloc[-1]
|
| 1125 |
+
N = last.shape[0]
|
| 1126 |
+
up = int((last > 0).sum())
|
| 1127 |
+
dn = int((last < 0).sum())
|
| 1128 |
+
flat = int(N - up - dn)
|
| 1129 |
+
mean = float(last.mean()); med = float(last.median())
|
| 1130 |
+
std = float(last.std(ddof=0))
|
| 1131 |
+
q25 = float(last.quantile(0.25)); q75 = float(last.quantile(0.75))
|
| 1132 |
+
iqr = q75 - q25
|
| 1133 |
+
thr = 0.02
|
| 1134 |
+
big_up = int((last >= thr).sum())
|
| 1135 |
+
big_dn = int((last <= -thr).sum())
|
| 1136 |
+
w = min(5, len(ret_last))
|
| 1137 |
+
avg_w = ret_last.tail(w).mean()
|
| 1138 |
+
pct_pos_w = float((avg_w > 0).mean())
|
| 1139 |
+
cs_std = ret_last.std(axis=1, ddof=0)
|
| 1140 |
+
today_std = float(cs_std.iloc[-1])
|
| 1141 |
+
disp_pct = float((cs_std <= today_std).mean())
|
| 1142 |
+
k = min(10, N)
|
| 1143 |
+
leaders = last.sort_values(ascending=False).head(k)
|
| 1144 |
+
laggards = last.sort_values(ascending=True ).head(k)
|
| 1145 |
+
|
| 1146 |
+
def _streak(s, max_look=20):
|
| 1147 |
+
v = s.tail(max_look).to_numpy(dtype=float)
|
| 1148 |
+
sign = np.sign(v); sign[np.isnan(sign)] = 0
|
| 1149 |
+
if len(sign) == 0 or sign[-1] == 0:
|
| 1150 |
+
return 0
|
| 1151 |
+
tgt = sign[-1]; cnt = 0
|
| 1152 |
+
for x in sign[::-1]:
|
| 1153 |
+
if x == tgt: cnt += 1
|
| 1154 |
+
else: break
|
| 1155 |
+
return int(cnt if tgt > 0 else -cnt)
|
| 1156 |
+
|
| 1157 |
+
streaks = {t: _streak(ret_last[t]) for t in set(leaders.index).union(laggards.index)}
|
| 1158 |
+
|
| 1159 |
+
print(f"=== Daily return heatmap read — {as_of} (last {len(ret_last)} sessions) ===", file=buf3)
|
| 1160 |
+
print("\n[Today]", file=buf3)
|
| 1161 |
+
print(f"Up: {up}/{N} ({_pct(up/N)}). Down: {dn}/{N} ({_pct(dn/N)}). Flat: {flat}.", file=buf3)
|
| 1162 |
+
print(f"Mean: {_pp(mean)}. Median: {_pp(med)}. Std: {_pp(std)}. IQR: {_pp(iqr)}.", file=buf3)
|
| 1163 |
+
print(f"Moves ≥ {int(thr*100)}%: +{big_up}. Moves ≤ -{int(thr*100)}%: {big_dn}.", file=buf3)
|
| 1164 |
+
|
| 1165 |
+
print("\n[Recent breadth]", file=buf3)
|
| 1166 |
+
print(f"{_pct(pct_pos_w)} of names have a positive average over the last {w} sessions.", file=buf3)
|
| 1167 |
+
|
| 1168 |
+
print("\n[Dispersion]", file=buf3)
|
| 1169 |
+
print(f"Cross-section std today: {_pp(today_std)} (window percentile ~{disp_pct*100:.0f}th).", file=buf3)
|
| 1170 |
+
|
| 1171 |
+
print("\n[Leaders today]", file=buf3)
|
| 1172 |
+
for t, v in leaders.items():
|
| 1173 |
+
stv = streaks.get(t, 0)
|
| 1174 |
+
lab = ("flat" if stv == 0 else (f"{stv}d up" if stv > 0 else f"{-stv}d down"))
|
| 1175 |
+
print(f" {t}: {_pp(v)} ({lab})", file=buf3)
|
| 1176 |
+
|
| 1177 |
+
print("\n[Laggards today]", file=buf3)
|
| 1178 |
+
for t, v in laggards.items():
|
| 1179 |
+
stv = streaks.get(t, 0)
|
| 1180 |
+
lab = ("flat" if stv == 0 else (f"{stv}d up" if stv > 0 else f"{-stv}d down"))
|
| 1181 |
+
print(f" {t}: {_pp(v)} ({lab})", file=buf3)
|
| 1182 |
+
|
| 1183 |
+
print("\n[What to monitor]", file=buf3)
|
| 1184 |
+
print("Watch big-move counts and the 5-day positive share for follow-through.", file=buf3)
|
| 1185 |
+
print("Track dispersion; elevated dispersion favors relative moves over index moves.", file=buf3)
|
| 1186 |
+
|
| 1187 |
+
st.text(buf3.getvalue())
|
| 1188 |
+
|
| 1189 |
+
# ===================== SECTION 4 — Percentile Momentum Heatmap =====================
|
| 1190 |
+
st.header("Percentile Momentum Heatmap")
|
| 1191 |
+
|
| 1192 |
+
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
|
| 1193 |
+
st.write("Ranks each stock’s medium-horizon return against the cross-section each day.")
|
| 1194 |
+
st.write("Use it to spot broad momentum, rotation, and persistence.")
|
| 1195 |
+
|
| 1196 |
+
st.write("**n-day return (per name)**")
|
| 1197 |
+
st.latex(r"r^{(n)}_{i,t}=\frac{P_{i,t}}{P_{i,t-n}}-1")
|
| 1198 |
+
|
| 1199 |
+
st.write("**Cross-sectional percentile (per day)**")
|
| 1200 |
+
st.latex(r"p_{i,t}=\frac{\operatorname{rank}\!\left(r^{(n)}_{i,t}\right)}{N}")
|
| 1201 |
+
st.write("0 means worst in the universe that day. 1 means best.")
|
| 1202 |
+
st.write("The heatmap shows p_{i,t}. Rows are sorted by the latest percentile.")
|
| 1203 |
+
|
| 1204 |
+
st.write("**Breadth buckets (how to read)**")
|
| 1205 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{Top\,20\%}_t=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,t}\ge 0.80]")
|
| 1206 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{Bottom\,20\%}_t=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,t}\le 0.20]")
|
| 1207 |
+
st.write("High Top-20% share signals broad upside momentum. High Bottom-20% share signals broad weakness.")
|
| 1208 |
+
|
| 1209 |
+
st.write("**Momentum shift vs a short lookback**")
|
| 1210 |
+
st.latex(r"\Delta p_i=p_{i,T}-p_{i,T-w}")
|
| 1211 |
+
st.write("Improving names: Δp_i > 0. Weakening names: Δp_i < 0.")
|
| 1212 |
+
|
| 1213 |
+
st.write("**Persistence (top/bottom quintile)**")
|
| 1214 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{TopQ}_{i}=\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,T-k}\ge 0.80]")
|
| 1215 |
+
st.latex(r"\text{BotQ}_{i}=\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}\mathbf{1}[p_{i,T-k}\le 0.20]")
|
| 1216 |
+
st.write("Names with TopQ = w held leadership. BotQ = w stayed weak.")
|
| 1217 |
+
|
| 1218 |
+
st.write("**Practical reads**")
|
| 1219 |
+
st.write("- Rising median percentile and high Top-20% share: trend has breadth.")
|
| 1220 |
+
st.write("- Mixed median with both tails active: rotation/dispersion regime.")
|
| 1221 |
+
st.write("- Persistent top-quintile list: candidates for follow-through.")
|
| 1222 |
+
st.write("- Persistent bottom-quintile list: candidates for mean-reversion checks.")
|
| 1223 |
+
|
| 1224 |
+
|
| 1225 |
+
look_days = int(mom_look)
|
| 1226 |
+
ret_n = clean_close.pct_change(look_days)
|
| 1227 |
+
ret_n = ret_n.iloc[look_days:]
|
| 1228 |
+
if ret_n.empty:
|
| 1229 |
+
st.warning("Not enough data for the momentum heatmap.")
|
| 1230 |
+
else:
|
| 1231 |
+
perc = ret_n.rank(axis=1, pct=True)
|
| 1232 |
+
order2 = perc.iloc[-1].sort_values(ascending=True).index
|
| 1233 |
+
perc = perc[order2]
|
| 1234 |
+
|
| 1235 |
+
z = perc.T.values
|
| 1236 |
+
x = perc.index
|
| 1237 |
+
y = list(order2)
|
| 1238 |
+
|
| 1239 |
+
n_dates = len(x)
|
| 1240 |
+
step = max(1, n_dates // 10)
|
| 1241 |
+
xtick_vals = x[::step]
|
| 1242 |
+
xtick_texts = [ts.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for ts in xtick_vals]
|
| 1243 |
+
|
| 1244 |
+
fig_pm = go.Figure(go.Heatmap(
|
| 1245 |
+
z=z, x=x, y=y,
|
| 1246 |
+
colorscale="Viridis",
|
| 1247 |
+
zmin=0, zmax=1,
|
| 1248 |
+
colorbar=dict(title="Return Percentile"),
|
| 1249 |
+
hovertemplate="%{y}<br>%{x|%Y-%m-%d}<br>%{z:.0%}<extra></extra>"
|
| 1250 |
+
))
|
| 1251 |
+
|
| 1252 |
+
height = max(800, min(3200, 18 * len(y)))
|
| 1253 |
+
fig_pm.update_layout(
|
| 1254 |
+
template="plotly_dark",
|
| 1255 |
+
title=f"{look_days}-Day Return Percentile Heatmap",
|
| 1256 |
+
height=height,
|
| 1257 |
+
margin=dict(l=110, r=40, t=60, b=60),
|
| 1258 |
+
font=dict(color="white")
|
| 1259 |
+
)
|
| 1260 |
+
fig_pm.update_yaxes(title="Tickers (sorted by latest %ile)", tickfont=dict(size=8))
|
| 1261 |
+
fig_pm.update_xaxes(title="Date", tickmode="array", tickvals=xtick_vals, ticktext=xtick_texts, tickangle=45)
|
| 1262 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig_pm, use_container_width=True)
|
| 1263 |
+
|
| 1264 |
+
with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
|
| 1265 |
+
buf4 = io.StringIO()
|
| 1266 |
+
if perc.empty or ret_n.empty:
|
| 1267 |
+
print("No data for interpretation.", file=buf4)
|
| 1268 |
+
else:
|
| 1269 |
+
as_of = perc.index[-1].date()
|
| 1270 |
+
last_p = perc.iloc[-1].astype(float)
|
| 1271 |
+
last_r = ret_n.iloc[-1].astype(float)
|
| 1272 |
+
|
| 1273 |
+
N = int(last_p.shape[0])
|
| 1274 |
+
mean_p = float(last_p.mean()); med_p = float(last_p.median())
|
| 1275 |
+
q25 = float(last_p.quantile(0.25)); q75 = float(last_p.quantile(0.75))
|
| 1276 |
+
iqr_w = q75 - q25
|
| 1277 |
+
|
| 1278 |
+
top10 = float((last_p >= 0.90).mean() * 100)
|
| 1279 |
+
top20 = float((last_p >= 0.80).mean() * 100)
|
| 1280 |
+
mid40 = float(((last_p > 0.40) & (last_p < 0.60)).mean() * 100)
|
| 1281 |
+
bot20 = float((last_p <= 0.20).mean() * 100)
|
| 1282 |
+
bot10 = float((last_p <= 0.10).mean() * 100)
|
| 1283 |
+
|
| 1284 |
+
pct_up = float((last_r > 0).mean() * 100)
|
| 1285 |
+
|
| 1286 |
+
look = min(5, len(perc))
|
| 1287 |
+
delta = (last_p - perc.iloc[-look].astype(float)).dropna()
|
| 1288 |
+
improving = float((delta > 0).mean() * 100)
|
| 1289 |
+
weakening = float((delta < 0).mean() * 100)
|
| 1290 |
+
delta_med = float(delta.median())
|
| 1291 |
+
|
| 1292 |
+
k = min(10, N)
|
| 1293 |
+
leaders = last_p.sort_values(ascending=False).head(k)
|
| 1294 |
+
laggards = last_p.sort_values(ascending=True ).head(k)
|
| 1295 |
+
|
| 1296 |
+
window_p = 5
|
| 1297 |
+
top_quint = (perc.tail(window_p) >= 0.80).sum()
|
| 1298 |
+
bot_quint = (perc.tail(window_p) <= 0.20).sum()
|
| 1299 |
+
persistent_up = top_quint[top_quint == window_p].index.tolist()
|
| 1300 |
+
persistent_dn = bot_quint[bot_quint == window_p].index.tolist()
|
| 1301 |
+
|
| 1302 |
+
print(f"=== {look_days}-day momentum read — {as_of} ===", file=buf4)
|
| 1303 |
+
print("\n[Snapshot]", file=buf4)
|
| 1304 |
+
print(f"Names: {N}. Up on window: {pct_up:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
|
| 1305 |
+
print(f"Mean percentile: {mean_p:.2f}. Median: {med_p:.2f}.", file=buf4)
|
| 1306 |
+
print(f"IQR: {q25:.2f}–{q75:.2f} (width {iqr_w:.2f}).", file=buf4)
|
| 1307 |
+
|
| 1308 |
+
print("\n[Breadth]", file=buf4)
|
| 1309 |
+
print(f"Top 10%: {top10:.1f}%. Top 20%: {top20:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
|
| 1310 |
+
print(f"Middle 40–60%: {mid40:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
|
| 1311 |
+
print(f"Bottom 20%: {bot20:.1f}%. Bottom 10%: {bot10:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
|
| 1312 |
+
|
| 1313 |
+
print("\n[Shift]", file=buf4)
|
| 1314 |
+
print(f"Improving vs {look} days ago: {improving:.1f}%. Weakening: {weakening:.1f}%.", file=buf4)
|
| 1315 |
+
print(f"Median percentile change: {delta_med:+.2f}.", file=buf4)
|
| 1316 |
+
|
| 1317 |
+
print("\n[Leaders]", file=buf4)
|
| 1318 |
+
for t, v in leaders.items():
|
| 1319 |
+
print(f" {t}: {v:.2f}", file=buf4)
|
| 1320 |
+
|
| 1321 |
+
print("\n[Laggards]", file=buf4)
|
| 1322 |
+
for t, v in laggards.items():
|
| 1323 |
+
print(f" {t}: {v:.2f}", file=buf4)
|
| 1324 |
+
|
| 1325 |
+
print("\n[Persistence]", file=buf4)
|
| 1326 |
+
if persistent_up:
|
| 1327 |
+
up_list = ", ".join(persistent_up[:15]) + ("…" if len(persistent_up) > 15 else "")
|
| 1328 |
+
print(f"Top-quintile {window_p} days: {up_list}", file=buf4)
|
| 1329 |
+
else:
|
| 1330 |
+
print("No names stayed in the top quintile.", file=buf4)
|
| 1331 |
+
if persistent_dn:
|
| 1332 |
+
dn_list = ", ".join(persistent_dn[:15]) + ("…" if len(persistent_dn) > 15 else "")
|
| 1333 |
+
print(f"Bottom-quintile {window_p} days: {dn_list}", file=buf4)
|
| 1334 |
+
else:
|
| 1335 |
+
print("No names stayed in the bottom quintile.", file=buf4)
|
| 1336 |
+
|
| 1337 |
+
print("\n[Focus]", file=buf4)
|
| 1338 |
+
print("Watch the top-quintile share. Rising share supports continuation.", file=buf4)
|
| 1339 |
+
print("Track the median percentile. Sustained readings above 0.60 show broad momentum.", file=buf4)
|
| 1340 |
+
print("Use persistence lists for follow-through and mean-reversion checks.", file=buf4)
|
| 1341 |
+
|
| 1342 |
+
st.text(buf4.getvalue())
|
| 1343 |
+
|
| 1344 |
|
| 1345 |
+
# Hide default Streamlit style
|
| 1346 |
+
st.markdown(
|
| 1347 |
+
"""
|
| 1348 |
+
<style>
|
| 1349 |
+
#MainMenu {visibility: hidden;}
|
| 1350 |
+
footer {visibility: hidden;}
|
| 1351 |
+
</style>
|
| 1352 |
+
""",
|
| 1353 |
+
unsafe_allow_html=True
|
| 1354 |
+
)
|
|
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