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import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import streamlit as st
from sklearn.linear_model import RANSACRegressor, LinearRegression
from scipy.stats import linregress
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
import datetime
# Helper function to fetch stock data
def fetch_stock_data(ticker: str, start_date: str, end_date: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Fetch stock data from Yahoo Finance."""
data = yf.download(ticker, start=start_date, end=end_date, auto_adjust=False)
if isinstance(data.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
data.columns = data.columns.get_level_values(0)
return data
# Helper function to plot rolling volatility and volatility of volatility
def plot_rolling_volatility(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
data['Rolling_Volatility'] = data['Return'].rolling(window=window).std() * np.sqrt(252)
data['Vol_of_Vol'] = data['Rolling_Volatility'].rolling(window=window).std()
fig = make_subplots(rows=3, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Volatility', 'Volatility of Volatility'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price'), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Rolling_Volatility'], mode='lines', name='Rolling Volatility', line=dict(color='red')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Vol_of_Vol'], mode='lines', name='Volatility of Volatility', line=dict(color='blue')), row=3, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Volatility and Volatility of Volatility', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Sharpe ratio
def plot_rolling_sharpe(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int, risk_free_rate: float) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
rolling_sharpe = np.sqrt(252) * (data['Return'].rolling(window).mean() - risk_free_rate) / data['Return'].rolling(window).std()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Sharpe Ratio'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price'), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=rolling_sharpe, mode='lines', name='Rolling Sharpe Ratio', line=dict(color='green')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_hline(y=1, line=dict(color='red', dash='dash'), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Sharpe Ratio with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Treynor ratio
def plot_rolling_treynor(data: pd.DataFrame, market_data: pd.DataFrame, window: int, risk_free_rate: float) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
market_data['Market_Return'] = market_data['Close'].pct_change()
# Align indices
market_data = market_data.reindex(data.index, method='ffill')
aligned_data = pd.concat([data['Return'], market_data['Market_Return']], axis=1).dropna()
covariance = aligned_data['Return'].rolling(window=window).cov(aligned_data['Market_Return'])
variance = aligned_data['Market_Return'].rolling(window=window).var()
rolling_beta = covariance / variance
avg_rolling_returns = aligned_data['Return'].rolling(window=window).mean()
data['Rolling_Treynor_Ratio'] = (avg_rolling_returns - risk_free_rate) / rolling_beta
fig = make_subplots(rows=3, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Benchmark Price', 'Rolling Treynor Ratio'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=market_data.index, y=market_data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Benchmark Price', line=dict(color='blue')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Rolling_Treynor_Ratio'], mode='lines', name='Rolling Treynor Ratio', line=dict(color='red')), row=3, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Treynor Ratio with Stock Price and Benchmark', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to calculate and plot rolling beta
def plot_rolling_beta(data: pd.DataFrame, market_data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
market_data['Market_Return'] = market_data['Close'].pct_change()
# Align dates and remove rows with missing data
aligned_data = pd.concat([data['Return'], market_data['Market_Return']], axis=1).dropna()
ransac = RANSACRegressor()
ols = LinearRegression()
rolling_beta_ransac = []
rolling_beta_ols = []
for i in range(len(aligned_data) - window + 1):
X = aligned_data['Market_Return'].iloc[i:i+window].values.reshape(-1, 1)
y = aligned_data['Return'].iloc[i:i+window].values
ransac.fit(X, y)
beta_ransac = ransac.estimator_.coef_[0]
rolling_beta_ransac.append(beta_ransac)
ols.fit(X, y)
beta_ols = ols.coef_[0]
rolling_beta_ols.append(beta_ols)
# Convert lists to series with appropriate index
rolling_beta_ransac = pd.Series(rolling_beta_ransac, index=aligned_data.index[window-1:])
rolling_beta_ols = pd.Series(rolling_beta_ols, index=aligned_data.index[window-1:])
fig = make_subplots(rows=3, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Benchmark Price', 'Rolling Beta (RANSAC & OLS)'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=market_data.index, y=market_data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Benchmark Price', line=dict(color='blue')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_beta_ransac.index, y=rolling_beta_ransac, mode='lines', name='Rolling Beta (RANSAC)', line=dict(color='red')), row=3, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_beta_ols.index, y=rolling_beta_ols, mode='lines', name='Rolling Beta (OLS)', line=dict(color='green')), row=3, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Beta with Stock Price and Benchmark', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Jensen's alpha
def plot_rolling_alpha(data: pd.DataFrame, market_data: pd.DataFrame, window: int, risk_free_rate: float) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
market_data['Market_Return'] = market_data['Close'].pct_change()
# Align indices
market_data = market_data.reindex(data.index, method='ffill')
aligned_data = pd.concat([data['Return'], market_data['Market_Return']], axis=1).dropna()
rolling_alpha = []
for i in range(len(aligned_data) - window + 1):
window_stock = aligned_data['Return'].iloc[i:i + window]
window_market = aligned_data['Market_Return'].iloc[i:i + window]
if len(window_stock) > 1 and window_market.var() != 0: # Ensure valid data
beta = window_stock.cov(window_market) / window_market.var()
expected_return = risk_free_rate + beta * (window_market.mean() - risk_free_rate)
alpha = window_stock.mean() - expected_return
rolling_alpha.append(alpha)
else:
rolling_alpha.append(np.nan)
rolling_alpha = pd.Series(rolling_alpha, index=aligned_data.index[window-1:])
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Jensen\'s Alpha'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_alpha.index, y=rolling_alpha, mode='lines', name='Rolling Jensen\'s Alpha', line=dict(color='green')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Jensen\'s Alpha with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Value at Risk (VaR)
def plot_rolling_var(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
rolling_var_90 = data['Return'].rolling(window).quantile(0.10).dropna()
rolling_var_95 = data['Return'].rolling(window).quantile(0.05).dropna()
rolling_var_97 = data['Return'].rolling(window).quantile(0.03).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling VaR'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_var_90.index, y=rolling_var_90, mode='lines', name='Rolling VaR 90%', line=dict(color='cyan')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_var_95.index, y=rolling_var_95, mode='lines', name='Rolling VaR 95%', line=dict(color='blue')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_var_97.index, y=rolling_var_97, mode='lines', name='Rolling VaR 97%', line=dict(color='purple')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling VaR with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Conditional VaR (CVaR)
def plot_rolling_cvar(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
def conditional_var(x, alpha=0.05):
var = np.nanpercentile(x, alpha * 100)
return np.mean(x[x < var]) if len(x[x < var]) > 0 else np.nan
rolling_cvar_95 = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(conditional_var, raw=True).dropna()
rolling_cvar_90 = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: conditional_var(x, alpha=0.1), raw=True).dropna()
rolling_cvar_97 = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: conditional_var(x, alpha=0.03), raw=True).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling CVaR'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_cvar_95.index, y=rolling_cvar_95, mode='lines', name='Rolling CVaR 95%', line=dict(color='blue')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_cvar_90.index, y=rolling_cvar_90, mode='lines', name='Rolling CVaR 90%', line=dict(color='green')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_cvar_97.index, y=rolling_cvar_97, mode='lines', name='Rolling CVaR 97%', line=dict(color='orange')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling CVaR with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Tail Ratio
def plot_rolling_tail_ratio(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
tail_ratio = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: np.abs(np.percentile(x.dropna(), 95)) / np.abs(np.percentile(x.dropna(), 5)) if len(x.dropna()) > 0 else np.nan).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Tail Ratio'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=tail_ratio.index, y=tail_ratio, mode='lines', name='Tail Ratio', line=dict(color='purple')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_hline(y=1, line=dict(color='red', dash='dash'), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Tail Ratio with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Omega Ratio
def plot_rolling_omega(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
MAR = 0 # Minimum Acceptable Return
omega_ratio = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: np.sum(x[x > MAR] - MAR) / np.sum(MAR - x[x < MAR]) if np.sum(x[x < MAR]) != 0 else np.inf).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Omega Ratio'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=omega_ratio.index, y=omega_ratio, mode='lines', name='Omega Ratio', line=dict(color='green')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_hline(y=1, line=dict(color='red', dash='dash'), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Omega Ratio with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Sortino Ratio
def plot_rolling_sortino(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int, MAR: float) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
sortino_ratio = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: np.sqrt(252) * np.mean(x - MAR) / np.sqrt(np.mean(np.minimum(0, x - MAR) ** 2)) if np.mean(np.minimum(0, x - MAR) ** 2) > 0 else np.inf).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Sortino Ratio'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=sortino_ratio.index, y=sortino_ratio, mode='lines', name='Sortino Ratio', line=dict(color='green')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Sortino Ratio with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Calmar Ratio
def plot_rolling_calmar(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
calmar_ratio = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: (1 + x).prod() ** (252.0 / len(x)) / np.abs(np.min((1 + x).cumprod() / (1 + x).cumprod().cummax()) - 1) if np.min((1 + x).cumprod() / (1 + x).cumprod().cummax()) < 1 else np.inf).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Calmar Ratio'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=calmar_ratio.index, y=calmar_ratio, mode='lines', name='Calmar Ratio', line=dict(color='green')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Calmar Ratio with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling stability
def plot_rolling_stability(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
stability = data['Return'].rolling(window).apply(lambda x: np.std(np.log1p(x.dropna()).cumsum() - linregress(np.arange(len(x.dropna())), np.log1p(x.dropna()).cumsum()).intercept - linregress(np.arange(len(x.dropna())), np.log1p(x.dropna()).cumsum()).slope * np.arange(len(x.dropna()))) if len(x.dropna()) > 1 else np.nan).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Stability'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=stability.index, y=stability, mode='lines', name='Stability', line=dict(color='purple')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Stability of Returns with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling maximum drawdown
def plot_rolling_drawdown(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
rolling_cumulative = (1 + data['Return']).cumprod()
rolling_max = rolling_cumulative.rolling(window, min_periods=1).max()
rolling_drawdown = (rolling_cumulative - rolling_max) / rolling_max
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Maximum Drawdown'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rolling_drawdown.index, y=rolling_drawdown, mode='lines', name='Maximum Drawdown', line=dict(color='red')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Maximum Drawdown with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to calculate and plot rolling capture ratios
def plot_rolling_capture(data: pd.DataFrame, market_data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
market_data['Market_Return'] = market_data['Close'].pct_change()
# Align indices
market_data = market_data.reindex(data.index, method='ffill')
aligned_data = pd.concat([data['Return'], market_data['Market_Return']], axis=1).dropna()
def calculate_capture(stock_returns, market_returns, is_upside=True):
if is_upside:
relevant_returns = stock_returns[market_returns > 0]
relevant_market_returns = market_returns[market_returns > 0]
else:
relevant_returns = stock_returns[market_returns < 0]
relevant_market_returns = market_returns[market_returns < 0]
return relevant_returns.sum() / relevant_market_returns.sum() if len(relevant_market_returns) > 0 else np.nan
def compute_rolling_captures(stock_returns, market_returns, window):
upside_captures = []
downside_captures = []
for idx in range(len(stock_returns) - window + 1):
current_window_stock = stock_returns.iloc[idx: idx + window]
current_window_market = market_returns.iloc[idx: idx + window]
if len(current_window_market[current_window_market > 0]) == 0 or len(current_window_market[current_window_market < 0]) == 0:
upside = np.nan
downside = np.nan
else:
upside = calculate_capture(current_window_stock, current_window_market, is_upside=True)
downside = calculate_capture(current_window_stock, current_window_market, is_upside=False)
upside_captures.append(upside)
downside_captures.append(downside)
# Padding the initial values with NaNs to match index length
nan_padding = [np.nan] * (window - 1)
upside_captures = pd.Series(nan_padding + upside_captures, index=stock_returns.index)
downside_captures = pd.Series(nan_padding + downside_captures, index=stock_returns.index)
return upside_captures, downside_captures
data['rolling_upside_capture'], data['rolling_downside_capture'] = compute_rolling_captures(
aligned_data['Return'], aligned_data['Market_Return'], window
)
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Capture Ratios'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['rolling_upside_capture'], mode='lines', name='Rolling Upside Capture', line=dict(color='green')), row=2, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['rolling_downside_capture'], mode='lines', name='Rolling Downside Capture', line=dict(color='red')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Capture Ratios with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Helper function to plot rolling Pain Index
def plot_rolling_pain_index(data: pd.DataFrame, window: int) -> go.Figure:
data['Return'] = data['Close'].pct_change()
cumulative_return = (1 + data['Return']).cumprod()
running_max = cumulative_return.cummax()
drawdown = (cumulative_return - running_max) / running_max
pain_index = drawdown.rolling(window).apply(lambda x: np.mean(x[x < 0]) if len(x[x < 0]) > 0 else 0).dropna()
fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, vertical_spacing=0.1,
subplot_titles=('Close Price', 'Rolling Pain Index'))
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=data['Close'], mode='lines', name='Close Price', line=dict(color='grey')), row=1, col=1)
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=pain_index.index, y=pain_index, mode='lines', name='Pain Index', line=dict(color='red')), row=2, col=1)
fig.update_layout(title='Rolling Pain Index with Stock Price', xaxis_title='Date')
return fig
# Streamlit app
st.set_page_config(page_title="Dynamic Risk Management Indicators", layout="wide")
st.title('Dynamic Risk Management Indicators')
st.sidebar.title("Input Parameters")
# Setting today's date plus one day
today_plus_one = pd.to_datetime(datetime.datetime.now().date() + pd.Timedelta(days=1))
# Sidebar for ticker and dates inside an expander
with st.sidebar.expander("Ticker and Dates", expanded=True):
ticker = st.text_input('Enter Stock Ticker', 'VOW.DE', help="Enter the stock or crypto ticker symbol (e.g., AAPL).")
start_date = st.date_input('Start Date', pd.to_datetime('2010-01-01'), help="Select the start date for the data analysis.")
end_date = st.date_input('End Date', today_plus_one, help="Select the end date for the data analysis.")
# Sidebar for method selection inside an expander
with st.sidebar.expander("Select Method", expanded=True):
selected = st.radio("Select Indicator",
["Rolling Volatility", "Rolling Sharpe Ratio", "Rolling Treynor Ratio", "Rolling Beta", "Rolling Jensen's Alpha",
"Rolling Value at Risk", "Rolling Conditional VaR", "Rolling Tail Ratio", "Rolling Omega Ratio",
"Rolling Sortino Ratio", "Rolling Calmar Ratio", "Rolling Stability", "Rolling Maximum Drawdown",
"Rolling Capture Ratios", "Rolling Pain Index"],
help="Choose the financial risk indicator you want to calculate and analyze.")
# Sidebar for input parameters
window_size = st.sidebar.number_input('Rolling Window Size (Days)', min_value=1, value=252,
help="Enter the number of days to use for the rolling window in the selected risk indicator calculation.")
# Fetch data
if 'data' not in st.session_state or st.sidebar.button('Fetch Data'):
data = fetch_stock_data(ticker, start_date, end_date)
if data.empty:
st.error(f"No data returned for {ticker} from {start_date} to {end_date}")
else:
st.session_state.data = data
if 'data' in st.session_state and not st.session_state.data.empty:
data = st.session_state.data
# Additional input for methods requiring benchmark or risk-free rate
if selected in ["Rolling Treynor Ratio", "Rolling Beta", "Rolling Jensen's Alpha", "Rolling Capture Ratios"]:
benchmark_ticker = st.sidebar.text_input('Enter Benchmark Ticker', '^GSPC',
help="Enter the ticker symbol for the benchmark index (e.g., ^GSPC for S&P 500).")
if 'market_data' not in st.session_state or st.sidebar.button('Fetch Market Data'):
market_data = fetch_stock_data(benchmark_ticker, start_date, end_date)
if market_data.empty:
st.error(f"No data returned for {benchmark_ticker} from {start_date} to {end_date}")
else:
st.session_state.market_data = market_data
if 'market_data' in st.session_state and not st.session_state.market_data.empty:
market_data = st.session_state.market_data
if selected in ["Rolling Sharpe Ratio", "Rolling Treynor Ratio", "Rolling Jensen's Alpha", "Rolling Sortino Ratio"]:
risk_free_rate = st.sidebar.number_input('Risk-Free Rate (as a decimal)', min_value=0.0, value=0.0,
help="Enter the risk-free rate as a decimal (e.g., 0.01 for 1%).")
if selected == "Rolling Sortino Ratio":
MAR = st.sidebar.number_input('Minimum Acceptable Return (MAR, as a decimal)', min_value=0.0, value=0.0,
help="Enter the Minimum Acceptable Return (MAR) as a decimal (e.g., 0.02 for 2%).")
# Display results based on the selected method
if selected == "Rolling Volatility":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Volatility
This method calculates the rolling volatility and the volatility of volatility.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
where `(P_t)` is the closing price at time `(t)`.
2. **Calculate Rolling Volatility:**
- Compute the rolling standard deviation of the returns over a specified window and annualize it:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Rolling Volatility}_t = \sqrt{252} \times \text{std}(\text{Return}_{t-n:t})
''')
st.markdown("""
where `(n)` is the window size.
3. **Calculate Volatility of Volatility:**
- Compute the rolling standard deviation of the rolling volatility over the specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Volatility of Volatility}_t = \text{std}(\text{Rolling Volatility}_{t-n:t})
''')
fig = plot_rolling_volatility(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Sharpe Ratio":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Sharpe Ratio
This method calculates the rolling Sharpe Ratio.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
where `(P_t)` is the closing price at time `(t)`.
2. **Calculate Rolling Average Return:**
- Compute the rolling mean of the returns over the specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Rolling Average Return}_t = \text{mean}(\text{Return}_{t-n:t})
''')
st.markdown("""
where `(n)` is the window size.
3. **Calculate Rolling Standard Deviation:**
- Compute the rolling standard deviation of the returns over the specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Rolling Std Dev}_t = \text{std}(\text{Return}_{t-n:t})
''')
st.markdown("""
4. **Calculate Rolling Sharpe Ratio:**
- Annualize the Sharpe Ratio:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Rolling Sharpe Ratio}_t = \frac{\text{Rolling Average Return}_t - R_f}{\text{Rolling Std Dev}_t} \times \sqrt{252}
''')
st.markdown("""
where `(R_f)` is the risk-free rate.
""")
fig = plot_rolling_sharpe(data, window_size, risk_free_rate)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Treynor Ratio" and 'market_data' in st.session_state:
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Treynor Ratio
This method calculates the rolling Treynor Ratio.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock and the benchmark:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Beta:**
- Compute the rolling covariance between the stock and benchmark returns, and divide by the rolling variance of the benchmark returns to get the rolling beta:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\beta_t = \frac{\text{Cov}(\text{Return}_{\text{stock}, t}, \text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, t})}{\text{Var}(\text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, t})}
''')
st.markdown("""
3. **Calculate Average Rolling Returns:**
- Compute the rolling mean of the stock returns over the same window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Average Rolling Return}_t = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=t-n+1}^{t} \text{Return}_{\text{stock}, i}
''')
st.markdown("""
4. **Calculate Treynor Ratio:**
- Compute the Treynor Ratio using the risk-free rate `(R_f)`:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Treynor Ratio}_t = \frac{\text{Average Rolling Return}_t - R_f}{\beta_t}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_treynor(data, market_data, window_size, risk_free_rate)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Beta" and 'market_data' in st.session_state:
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Beta
This method calculates the rolling beta of a stock's returns against a benchmark using RANSAC and OLS methods.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock and the benchmark:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Rolling Beta using OLS:**
- Perform a linear regression of the stock returns against the benchmark returns over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\beta_{OLS} = \frac{\text{Cov}(\text{Return}_{\text{stock}}, \text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}})}{\text{Var}(\text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}})}
''')
st.markdown("""
3. **Calculate Rolling Beta using RANSAC:**
- Use the RANSAC algorithm to robustly estimate the beta, reducing the influence of outliers:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\beta_{RANSAC} = \text{RANSAC}(\text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}}, \text{Return}_{\text{stock}})
''')
fig = plot_rolling_beta(data, market_data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Jensen's Alpha" and 'market_data' in st.session_state:
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Jensen's Alpha
This method calculates the rolling Jensen's Alpha.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock and the benchmark:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Beta:**
- Compute the rolling beta of the stock returns against the benchmark returns over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\beta_t = \frac{\text{Cov}(\text{Return}_{\text{stock}, t}, \text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, t})}{\text{Var}(\text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, t})}
''')
st.markdown("""
3. **Calculate Expected Return:**
- Compute the expected return of the stock based on the CAPM model:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Expected Return}_t = R_f + \beta_t (\text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}} - R_f)
''')
st.markdown("""
4. **Calculate Jensen's Alpha:**
- Compute the Jensen's Alpha as the difference between the actual return and the expected return:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\alpha_t = \text{Return}_{\text{stock}, t} - \text{Expected Return}_t
''')
fig = plot_rolling_alpha(data, market_data, window_size, risk_free_rate)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Value at Risk":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Value at Risk (VaR)
This method calculates the rolling Value at Risk (VaR) at different confidence levels.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Rolling VaR:**
- Compute the rolling quantile of the returns over a specified window for different confidence levels:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{VaR}_{\alpha, t} = \text{Quantile}_{\alpha}(\text{Return}_{t-n:t})
''')
fig = plot_rolling_var(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Conditional VaR":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
This method calculates the rolling Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) at different confidence levels.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Rolling CVaR:**
- Compute the average of the returns that are below the VaR threshold over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{CVaR}_{\alpha, t} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \text{Return}_{i} \text{ where } \text{Return}_{i} < \text{VaR}_{\alpha, t}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_cvar(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Tail Ratio":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Tail Ratio
This method calculates the rolling Tail Ratio.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Tail Ratio:**
- Compute the rolling Tail Ratio over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Tail Ratio}_t = \frac{|\text{Quantile}_{95}(\text{Return}_{t-n:t})|}{|\text{Quantile}_{5}(\text{Return}_{t-n:t})|}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_tail_ratio(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Omega Ratio":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Omega Ratio
This method calculates the rolling Omega Ratio.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Omega Ratio:**
- Compute the rolling Omega Ratio over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Omega Ratio}_t = \frac{\sum (\text{Return}_{i} > MAR) (\text{Return}_{i} - MAR)}{\sum (\text{Return}_{i} < MAR) (MAR - \text{Return}_{i})}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_omega(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Sortino Ratio":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Sortino Ratio
This method calculates the rolling Sortino Ratio.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Rolling Sortino Ratio:**
- Compute the rolling Sortino Ratio over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Sortino Ratio}_t = \frac{\sqrt{252} \cdot \text{Mean}(\text{Return}_{t-n:t} - MAR)}{\sqrt{\text{Mean}(\min(0, \text{Return}_{t-n:t} - MAR)^2)}}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_sortino(data, window_size, MAR)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Calmar Ratio":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Calmar Ratio
This method calculates the rolling Calmar Ratio.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Rolling Calmar Ratio:**
- Compute the rolling Calmar Ratio over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Calmar Ratio}_t = \frac{\text{CAGR}_{t-n:t}}{\text{Max Drawdown}_{t-n:t}}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_calmar(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Stability":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Stability
This method calculates the rolling stability of returns.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Rolling Stability:**
- Compute the rolling stability over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Stability}_t = \sqrt{\frac{1}{n-1} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (\log(1 + \text{Return}_{t-i}) - \overline{\log(1 + \text{Return})})^2}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_stability(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Maximum Drawdown":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Maximum Drawdown
This method calculates the rolling maximum drawdown.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Rolling Maximum Drawdown:**
- Compute the cumulative returns and the maximum drawdown over a specified window:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Cumulative Return}_t = \prod_{i=1}^{t} (1 + \text{Return}_i)
''')
st.latex(r'''
\text{Max Drawdown}_t = \frac{\text{Cumulative Return}_t - \text{Rolling Max Cumulative Return}_t}{\text{Rolling Max Cumulative Return}_t}
''')
fig = plot_rolling_drawdown(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Capture Ratios" and 'market_data' in st.session_state:
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Capture Ratios
This method calculates the rolling upside and downside capture ratios.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock and the benchmark:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Upside Capture Ratio:**
- Compute the ratio of the sum of the stock's returns to the sum of the benchmark's returns during periods when the benchmark's returns are positive:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Upside Capture Ratio}_t = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{t} \text{Return}_{\text{stock}, i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{t} \text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, i}}, \quad \text{if } \text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, i} > 0
''')
st.markdown("""
3. **Calculate Downside Capture Ratio:**
- Compute the ratio of the sum of the stock's returns to the sum of the benchmark's returns during periods when the benchmark's returns are negative:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Downside Capture Ratio}_t = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{t} \text{Return}_{\text{stock}, i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{t} \text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, i}}, \quad \text{if } \text{Return}_{\text{benchmark}, i} < 0
''')
fig = plot_rolling_capture(data, market_data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
elif selected == "Rolling Pain Index":
st.markdown("""
### Rolling Pain Index
This method calculates the rolling pain index.
""")
with st.expander("Methodology", expanded=False):
st.markdown("""
1. **Calculate Returns:**
- Compute the daily returns of the stock:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Return}_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}}
''')
st.markdown("""
2. **Calculate Cumulative Returns:**
- Compute the cumulative returns over time:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Cumulative Return}_t = \prod_{i=1}^{t} (1 + \text{Return}_i)
''')
st.markdown("""
3. **Calculate Drawdowns:**
- Determine the drawdowns by comparing the cumulative returns to their running maximum:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Drawdown}_t = \frac{\text{Cumulative Return}_t - \text{Running Max Cumulative Return}_t}{\text{Running Max Cumulative Return}_t}
''')
st.markdown("""
4. **Calculate Rolling Pain Index:**
- Compute the average drawdown over a specified window where the drawdown is negative:
""")
st.latex(r'''
\text{Pain Index} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} \text{Drawdown}_i \quad \text{for } \text{Drawdown}_i < 0
''')
fig = plot_rolling_pain_index(data, window_size)
st.plotly_chart(fig)
hide_streamlit_style = """
<style>
#MainMenu {visibility: hidden;}
footer {visibility: hidden;}
</style>
"""
st.markdown(hide_streamlit_style, unsafe_allow_html=True)