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# ============================================================
# ๐งช backtest_engine.py (V223.5 - GEM-Architect: The Data Floodgates Open)
# FIXES:
# 1) Relaxed Storage Thresholds (Solves "Signals: 0").
# 2) Includes MFI/Slope/Aliases (Solves Warnings).
# 3) Includes Sniper Shape Fix (Solves Crash).
# ============================================================
import asyncio
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import time
import logging
import os
import glob
import gc
import traceback
import pickle
from datetime import datetime, timezone, timedelta
try:
import pandas_ta as ta
import xgboost as xgb
import lightgbm as lgb
except ImportError as e:
raise ImportError(f"๐ด CRITICAL: Missing mandatory dependency for Truth Mode: {e}")
try:
from ml_engine.processor import MLProcessor
from ml_engine.data_manager import DataManager
from learning_hub.adaptive_hub import AdaptiveHub
from r2 import R2Service
from governance_engine import GovernanceEngine
except ImportError:
pass
logging.getLogger("ml_engine").setLevel(logging.WARNING)
CACHE_DIR = "backtest_v223_immutable"
GOV_CACHE_DIR = os.path.join(CACHE_DIR, "gov_cache")
PATTERN_CACHE_DIR = os.path.join(CACHE_DIR, "patterns_cache")
for d in [CACHE_DIR, GOV_CACHE_DIR, PATTERN_CACHE_DIR]:
if not os.path.exists(d):
os.makedirs(d)
# ============================================================
# ๐ ๏ธ HELPERS
# ============================================================
def optimize_dataframe_memory(df: pd.DataFrame):
if df is None or len(df) == 0:
return df
float_cols = df.select_dtypes(include=["float64"]).columns
if len(float_cols) > 0:
df[float_cols] = df[float_cols].astype("float32")
int_cols = df.select_dtypes(include=["int64", "int32"]).columns
for col in int_cols:
c_min = df[col].min()
c_max = df[col].max()
if c_min > -128 and c_max < 127:
df[col] = df[col].astype("int8")
elif c_min > -32768 and c_max < 32767:
df[col] = df[col].astype("int16")
else:
df[col] = df[col].astype("int32")
return df
def tf_to_offset(tf: str):
if tf.endswith("m") and tf[:-1].isdigit():
return f"{int(tf[:-1])}T"
if tf.endswith("h") and tf[:-1].isdigit():
return f"{int(tf[:-1])}h"
if tf.endswith("d") and tf[:-1].isdigit():
return f"{int(tf[:-1])}D"
return None
def calc_max_drawdown(equity_curve):
if not equity_curve:
return 0.0
eq = np.array(equity_curve, dtype=np.float64)
peak = np.maximum.accumulate(eq)
dd = (eq - peak) / (peak + 1e-9)
return float(dd.min()) * 100
def calc_profit_factor(wins, losses):
gross_win = np.sum(wins)
gross_loss = abs(np.sum(losses))
if gross_loss < 1e-9:
return 99.0
return float(gross_win / gross_loss)
def calc_ulcer_index(equity_curve):
if not equity_curve:
return 0.0
eq = np.asarray(equity_curve, dtype=np.float64)
peak = np.maximum.accumulate(eq)
dd_pct = (eq - peak) / (peak + 1e-12) * 100.0
return float(np.sqrt(np.mean(dd_pct**2)))
def calc_sharpe(returns, eps=1e-12):
if returns is None or len(returns) < 2:
return 0.0
r = np.asarray(returns, dtype=np.float64)
mu = np.mean(r)
sd = np.std(r)
if sd < eps:
return 0.0
return float(mu / sd * np.sqrt(len(r)))
def calc_sortino(returns, eps=1e-12):
if returns is None or len(returns) < 2:
return 0.0
r = np.asarray(returns, dtype=np.float64)
mu = np.mean(r)
downside = r[r < 0]
if len(downside) < 1:
return 99.0
dd = np.std(downside)
if dd < eps:
return 0.0
return float(mu / dd * np.sqrt(len(r)))
def calc_cagr(initial_capital, final_balance, start_ms, end_ms):
if initial_capital <= 0 or final_balance <= 0 or end_ms <= start_ms:
return 0.0
years = (end_ms - start_ms) / (1000.0 * 60 * 60 * 24 * 365.25)
if years < 1e-6:
return 0.0
try:
return float((final_balance / initial_capital) ** (1.0 / years) - 1.0)
except:
return 0.0
def calc_calmar(cagr, max_drawdown_pct):
dd = abs(max_drawdown_pct)
if dd < 1e-9:
return 99.0
return float((cagr * 100.0) / dd)
def calc_consecutive_streaks(pnls):
max_w = max_l = 0
cur_w = cur_l = 0
for p in pnls:
if p > 0:
cur_w += 1
cur_l = 0
else:
cur_l += 1
cur_w = 0
max_w = max(max_w, cur_w)
max_l = max(max_l, cur_l)
return int(max_w), int(max_l)
# ============================================================
# ๐งช BACKTESTER
# ============================================================
class HeavyDutyBacktester:
def __init__(self, data_manager, processor):
self.dm = data_manager
self.proc = processor
self.gov_engine = GovernanceEngine()
# If True: raise on missing features. If False: fill 0 and continue.
self.STRICT_FEATURES = False
self._missing_feature_once = set()
self._verify_system_integrity()
self.GRID_DENSITY = 6
self.MAX_SAMPLES = 3000
self.INITIAL_CAPITAL = 10.0
self.MIN_CAPITAL_FOR_SPLIT = 20.0
self.TRADING_FEES = 0.001
self.SLIPPAGE_PCT = 0.0005
self.MAX_SLOTS = 4
self.GRID_RANGES = {
"TITAN": np.linspace(0.40, 0.70, self.GRID_DENSITY),
"ORACLE": np.linspace(0.55, 0.80, self.GRID_DENSITY),
"SNIPER": np.linspace(0.30, 0.65, self.GRID_DENSITY),
"PATTERN": np.linspace(0.30, 0.70, self.GRID_DENSITY),
"GOV_SCORE": np.linspace(50.0, 80.0, self.GRID_DENSITY),
"HYDRA_THRESH": np.linspace(0.60, 0.90, self.GRID_DENSITY),
"LEGACY_THRESH": np.linspace(0.85, 0.98, self.GRID_DENSITY),
}
self.TARGET_COINS = [
"SOL/USDT", "XRP/USDT", "DOGE/USDT" ]
self.USE_FIXED_DATES = False
self.LOOKBACK_DAYS = 60
self.force_start_date = "2024-01-01"
self.force_end_date = "2024-02-01"
self.required_timeframes = self._determine_required_timeframes()
print(f"๐งช [Backtest V223.5] IMMUTABLE TRUTH (Patched & Open Gates). TFs: {self.required_timeframes}")
def _verify_system_integrity(self):
errors = []
if not getattr(self.proc, "titan", None) or not getattr(self.proc.titan, "model", None):
errors.append("โ Titan Engine missing")
if not getattr(self.proc, "oracle", None) or not getattr(self.proc.oracle, "model_direction", None):
errors.append("โ Oracle Engine missing")
if not getattr(self.proc, "pattern_engine", None):
errors.append("โ Pattern Engine missing")
if not getattr(self.proc, "sniper", None):
errors.append("โ Sniper Engine missing")
if not getattr(self.proc, "guardian_hydra", None) or not getattr(self.proc.guardian_hydra, "models", None):
errors.append("โ Hydra Guardian missing/models not loaded")
else:
m = self.proc.guardian_hydra.models
if "crash" not in m or "giveback" not in m:
errors.append("โ Hydra missing crash/giveback heads")
try:
_ = m["crash"].predict_proba
_ = m["giveback"].predict_proba
except:
errors.append("โ Hydra heads must implement predict_proba()")
if errors:
raise RuntimeError(f"CRITICAL INTEGRITY FAILURE: {errors}")
def _determine_required_timeframes(self):
tfs = set(["5m", "15m", "1h", "4h"])
def maybe_add(prefix: str):
if tf_to_offset(prefix):
tfs.add(prefix)
if hasattr(self.proc.titan.model, "feature_names"):
for f in self.proc.titan.model.feature_names:
if "_" in f:
maybe_add(f.split("_", 1)[0])
if hasattr(self.proc.oracle, "feature_cols"):
for f in self.proc.oracle.feature_cols:
if "_" in f:
maybe_add(f.split("_", 1)[0])
return list(tfs)
# --------------------------
# Indicator Hardening Layer (FIXED: MFI, Slope, Aliases)
# --------------------------
@staticmethod
def _safe_bbands(close: pd.Series, length=20, std=2.0):
basis = close.rolling(length).mean()
dev = close.rolling(length).std(ddof=0)
upper = basis + std * dev
lower = basis - std * dev
width = (upper - lower) / (basis.abs() + 1e-12)
pct = (close - lower) / ((upper - lower) + 1e-12)
return lower, upper, width, pct
def _calculate_all_indicators(self, df: pd.DataFrame):
cols = ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]
for c in cols:
df[c] = pd.to_numeric(df[c], errors="coerce")
df[cols] = df[cols].replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan)
df.dropna(subset=["close", "high", "low"], inplace=True)
c = df["close"].astype(np.float64)
h = df["high"].astype(np.float64)
l = df["low"].astype(np.float64)
v = df["volume"].astype(np.float64) if "volume" in df.columns else pd.Series(np.zeros(len(df)), index=df.index)
# ----------------------------------------------------
# โ
[GEM-FIX] Compatibility Bridge (Oracle & Titan)
# ----------------------------------------------------
# 1. Oracle: Slope
try: df['slope'] = ta.slope(c, length=7).fillna(0)
except: df['slope'] = 0.0
# 2. Titan: MFI
try: df['MFI'] = ta.mfi(h, l, c, v, length=14).fillna(50)
except: df['MFI'] = 50.0
# 3. Oracle Mapping (LowerCase Aliases)
df["RSI"] = ta.rsi(c, length=14).fillna(50)
df["rsi"] = df["RSI"] # Alias
df["ATR"] = ta.atr(h, l, c, length=14).fillna(0)
df["ATR_pct"] = (df["ATR"] / (c + 1e-12)) * 100
df["atr_pct"] = df["ATR_pct"] # Alias
# 4. Oracle: Volume Z-Score (vol_z)
vol_mean = v.rolling(20).mean()
vol_std = v.rolling(20).std()
df["vol_z"] = ((v - vol_mean) / (vol_std + 1e-9)).fillna(0) # For Oracle
# 5. Titan: Trend Strong (Approx)
adx_df = ta.adx(h, l, c, length=14)
if adx_df is not None and not adx_df.empty:
df["ADX"] = adx_df.iloc[:, 0].fillna(0)
df["Trend_Strong"] = np.where(df["ADX"] > 25, 1, 0)
else:
df["ADX"] = 0.0
df["Trend_Strong"] = 0
# ----------------------------------------------------
try:
df["CHOP"] = ta.chop(h, l, c, length=14).fillna(50)
except:
df["CHOP"] = 50
try:
df["vwap"] = ta.vwap(h, l, c, v).fillna(c)
except:
df["vwap"] = c
try:
df["CCI"] = ta.cci(h, l, c, length=20).fillna(0)
except:
df["CCI"] = 0.0
# EMAs
for span in [9, 20, 21, 50, 200]:
df[f"ema{span}"] = c.ewm(span=span, adjust=False).mean()
# Derived
df["EMA_9_dist"] = (c / (df["ema9"] + 1e-12)) - 1
df["EMA_21_dist"] = (c / (df["ema21"] + 1e-12)) - 1
df["EMA_50_dist"] = (c / (df["ema50"] + 1e-12)) - 1
df["EMA_200_dist"] = (c / (df["ema200"] + 1e-12)) - 1
df["VWAP_dist"] = (c / (df["vwap"] + 1e-12)) - 1
# BBANDS
if len(df) < 30:
df["lower_bb"] = c; df["upper_bb"] = c; df["bb_width"] = 0.0; df["bb_pct"] = 0.5
df["BB_w"] = 0.0; df["BB_p"] = 0.5
else:
bb = ta.bbands(c, length=20, std=2.0)
if bb is not None and isinstance(bb, pd.DataFrame):
col_w = [x for x in bb.columns if "BBB" in x]
col_p = [x for x in bb.columns if "BBP" in x]
col_l = [x for x in bb.columns if "BBL" in x]
col_u = [x for x in bb.columns if "BBU" in x]
df["bb_width"] = bb[col_w[0]] if col_w else 0.0
df["bb_pct"] = bb[col_p[0]] if col_p else 0.5
df["lower_bb"] = bb[col_l[0]] if col_l else c
df["upper_bb"] = bb[col_u[0]] if col_u else c
df["BB_w"] = df["bb_width"]
df["BB_p"] = df["bb_pct"]
else:
df["lower_bb"] = c; df["upper_bb"] = c; df["bb_width"] = 0.0; df["bb_pct"] = 0.5
df["BB_w"] = 0.0; df["BB_p"] = 0.5
# MACD
macd = ta.macd(c)
if macd is not None and not macd.empty:
df["MACD"] = macd.iloc[:, 0]
df["MACD_h"] = macd.iloc[:, 1]
df["MACD_s"] = macd.iloc[:, 2]
else:
df["MACD"] = 0.0; df["MACD_h"] = 0.0; df["MACD_s"] = 0.0
mean_vol = v.rolling(50).mean() + 1e-9
df["rel_vol"] = v / mean_vol
df["log_ret"] = np.concatenate([[0], np.diff(np.log(c + 1e-9))])
return df.fillna(0)
def _warn_missing_once(self, msg: str):
if msg in self._missing_feature_once:
return
self._missing_feature_once.add(msg)
print(f"[WARN] {msg}")
async def _fetch_all_data_fast(self, sym, start_ms, end_ms):
print(f" โก [Network] Downloading {sym}...", flush=True)
limit = 1000
tasks = []
curr = start_ms
while curr < end_ms:
tasks.append(curr)
curr += limit * 60 * 1000
all_candles = []
sem = asyncio.Semaphore(20)
async def _fetch_batch(timestamp):
async with sem:
for _ in range(3):
try:
return await self.dm.exchange.fetch_ohlcv(sym, "1m", since=timestamp, limit=limit)
except:
await asyncio.sleep(0.5)
return []
chunk_size = 50
for i in range(0, len(tasks), chunk_size):
res = await asyncio.gather(*[_fetch_batch(t) for t in tasks[i : i + chunk_size]])
for r in res:
if r:
all_candles.extend(r)
if not all_candles:
return None
df = pd.DataFrame(all_candles, columns=["timestamp", "o", "h", "l", "c", "v"])
df.drop_duplicates("timestamp", inplace=True)
df = df[(df["timestamp"] >= start_ms) & (df["timestamp"] <= end_ms)].sort_values("timestamp")
return df.values.tolist()
async def _process_data_in_memory(self, sym, candles, start_ms, end_ms):
safe_sym = sym.replace("/", "_")
period_suffix = f"{start_ms}_{end_ms}"
scores_file = f"{CACHE_DIR}/{safe_sym}_{period_suffix}_processed.pkl"
if os.path.exists(scores_file):
print(f" ๐ [{sym}] Loaded Cache.")
return
print(f" โ๏ธ [CPU] Processing {sym} (Truth Mode)...", flush=True)
t0 = time.time()
df_1m = pd.DataFrame(candles, columns=["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"])
df_1m["datetime"] = pd.to_datetime(df_1m["timestamp"] + 60000, unit="ms", utc=True)
df_1m.set_index("datetime", inplace=True)
df_1m = df_1m.sort_index()
df_1m = self._calculate_all_indicators(df_1m)
if len(df_1m) < 300:
raise RuntimeError(f"{sym} has too few valid candles after cleaning: {len(df_1m)}")
arr_ts_1m = (df_1m.index.astype(np.int64) // 10**6).values
fast_1m_close = df_1m["close"].values.astype(np.float32)
numpy_htf = {}
agg_dict = {"open": "first", "high": "max", "low": "min", "close": "last", "volume": "sum"}
for tf_str in self.required_timeframes:
offset = tf_to_offset(tf_str)
if not offset:
continue
resampled = df_1m.resample(offset, label="right", closed="right").agg(agg_dict).dropna()
resampled = self._calculate_all_indicators(resampled)
if len(resampled) == 0:
continue
resampled["timestamp"] = resampled.index.astype(np.int64) // 10**6
numpy_htf[tf_str] = {col: resampled[col].values for col in resampled.columns}
if "1h" not in numpy_htf:
raise RuntimeError(f"CRITICAL: '1h' missing for {sym}.")
def get_safe_map(tf):
if tf not in numpy_htf or len(numpy_htf[tf]["timestamp"]) == 0:
return np.full(len(arr_ts_1m), -1, dtype=np.int32)
htf_ts = numpy_htf[tf]["timestamp"]
idx = np.searchsorted(htf_ts, arr_ts_1m, side="right") - 1
return idx.astype(np.int32)
maps = {tf: get_safe_map(tf) for tf in self.required_timeframes}
validity_mask = np.ones(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=bool)
for tf in maps:
validity_mask &= (maps[tf] >= 0)
validity_mask[:200] = False
# 1) Pattern (Cached)
global_pattern_scores = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32)
pat_cache_file = os.path.join(PATTERN_CACHE_DIR, f"{safe_sym}_{period_suffix}_pat.pkl")
pattern_results_map = {}
if os.path.exists(pat_cache_file):
with open(pat_cache_file, "rb") as f:
pattern_results_map = pickle.load(f)
elif "15m" in numpy_htf:
ts_15m = numpy_htf["15m"]["timestamp"]
cols = ["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]
df_15m_source = pd.DataFrame({c: numpy_htf["15m"][c] for c in cols})
for i in range(200, len(df_15m_source)):
window = df_15m_source.iloc[i - 200 : i + 1]
ohlcv_input = {"15m": window.values.tolist()}
try:
res = await self.proc.pattern_engine.detect_chart_patterns(ohlcv_input)
pattern_results_map[ts_15m[i]] = res.get("pattern_confidence", 0.0)
except:
pass
with open(pat_cache_file, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(pattern_results_map, f)
if "15m" in maps and "15m" in numpy_htf:
map_15 = maps["15m"]
ts_15_arr = numpy_htf["15m"]["timestamp"]
for i in range(len(arr_ts_1m)):
if not validity_mask[i]:
continue
idx = map_15[i]
if idx >= 0:
global_pattern_scores[i] = pattern_results_map.get(ts_15_arr[idx], 0.0)
# 2) Governance (Cached)
gov_scores_final = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32)
gov_cache_file = os.path.join(GOV_CACHE_DIR, f"{safe_sym}_{period_suffix}_gov.pkl")
gov_results_map = {}
if os.path.exists(gov_cache_file):
with open(gov_cache_file, "rb") as f:
gov_results_map = pickle.load(f)
elif "15m" in numpy_htf:
cols = ["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"]
df_15m_g = pd.DataFrame({c: numpy_htf["15m"][c] for c in cols})
ts_15m = numpy_htf["15m"]["timestamp"]
has_1h = "1h" in numpy_htf
df_1h_g = pd.DataFrame({c: numpy_htf["1h"][c] for c in cols}) if has_1h else None
ts_1h = numpy_htf["1h"]["timestamp"] if has_1h else None
for i in range(200, len(df_15m_g)):
curr_ts = ts_15m[i]
win_15 = df_15m_g.iloc[i - 120 : i + 1]
ohlcv_input = {"15m": win_15.values.tolist()}
if has_1h:
idx_1h = np.searchsorted(ts_1h, curr_ts, side="right") - 1
if idx_1h >= 50:
ohlcv_input["1h"] = df_1h_g.iloc[idx_1h - 60 : idx_1h + 1].values.tolist()
try:
res = await self.gov_engine.evaluate_trade(sym, ohlcv_input, {}, "NORMAL", False, has_1h)
score = res.get("governance_score", 0.0) if res.get("grade") != "REJECT" else 0.0
gov_results_map[curr_ts] = score
except:
pass
with open(gov_cache_file, "wb") as f:
pickle.dump(gov_results_map, f)
if "15m" in maps and "15m" in numpy_htf:
map_15 = maps["15m"]
ts_15_arr = numpy_htf["15m"]["timestamp"]
for i in range(len(arr_ts_1m)):
if not validity_mask[i]:
continue
idx = map_15[i]
if idx >= 0:
gov_scores_final[i] = gov_results_map.get(ts_15_arr[idx], 0.0)
# 3) Market State
map_1h = maps["1h"]
valid_1h = map_1h >= 0
idx_1h = map_1h[valid_1h]
h1_chop = numpy_htf["1h"]["CHOP"][idx_1h]
h1_adx = numpy_htf["1h"]["ADX"][idx_1h]
h1_atr_pct = numpy_htf["1h"]["ATR_pct"][idx_1h]
market_ok = np.ones(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=bool)
market_ok[valid_1h] = ~((h1_chop > 61.8) | ((h1_atr_pct < 0.3) & (h1_adx < 20)))
coin_state = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.int8)
h1_rsi = numpy_htf["1h"]["RSI"][idx_1h]
h1_bbw = numpy_htf["1h"]["bb_width"][idx_1h]
h1_upper = numpy_htf["1h"]["upper_bb"][idx_1h]
h1_ema20 = numpy_htf["1h"]["ema20"][idx_1h]
h1_ema50 = numpy_htf["1h"]["ema50"][idx_1h]
h1_ema200 = numpy_htf["1h"]["ema200"][idx_1h]
h1_close = numpy_htf["1h"]["close"][idx_1h]
h1_rel_vol = numpy_htf["1h"]["rel_vol"][idx_1h]
mask_acc = (h1_bbw < 0.20) & (h1_rsi >= 35) & (h1_rsi <= 65)
mask_safe = (h1_adx > 25) & (h1_ema20 > h1_ema50) & (h1_ema50 > h1_ema200) & (h1_rsi > 50) & (h1_rsi < 75)
mask_exp = (h1_rsi > 65) & (h1_close > h1_upper) & (h1_rel_vol > 1.5)
state_buffer = np.zeros(len(idx_1h), dtype=np.int8)
state_buffer[mask_acc] = 1
state_buffer[mask_safe] = 2
state_buffer[mask_exp] = 3
coin_state[valid_1h] = state_buffer
coin_state[~validity_mask] = 0
coin_state[~market_ok] = 0
# =========================
# 4) Titan & Oracle (Hardened)
# =========================
titan_cols = self.proc.titan.model.feature_names
t_vecs = []
for col in titan_cols:
parts = col.split("_", 1)
if len(parts) < 2:
raise ValueError(f"Titan Feature Format Error: {col}")
tf = parts[0]
raw_feat = parts[1]
lookup_key = "bb_pct" if raw_feat in ["BB_p", "BB_pct"] else ("bb_width" if raw_feat == "BB_w" else raw_feat)
if tf not in numpy_htf:
if self.STRICT_FEATURES:
raise ValueError(f"Titan requires TF not built: {tf} (feature: {col})")
self._warn_missing_once(f"Titan TF missing -> {col}. Filled 0.")
t_vecs.append(np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32))
continue
if lookup_key not in numpy_htf[tf] and lookup_key != "timestamp":
if self.STRICT_FEATURES:
raise ValueError(f"Missing Titan Feature: {col}")
self._warn_missing_once(f"Missing Titan Feature -> {col}. Filled 0.")
t_vecs.append(np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32))
continue
idx = maps[tf]
vals = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32)
valid = idx >= 0
if lookup_key == "timestamp":
vals[valid] = numpy_htf[tf]["timestamp"][idx[valid]]
else:
vals[valid] = numpy_htf[tf][lookup_key][idx[valid]]
t_vecs.append(vals)
X_TITAN = np.column_stack(t_vecs)
global_titan_scores = self.proc.titan.model.predict(xgb.DMatrix(X_TITAN, feature_names=titan_cols))
oracle_cols = self.proc.oracle.feature_cols
o_vecs = []
for col in oracle_cols:
if col == "sim_titan_score":
o_vecs.append(global_titan_scores.astype(np.float32))
elif col in ["sim_pattern_score", "pattern_score"]:
o_vecs.append(global_pattern_scores.astype(np.float32))
elif col == "sim_mc_score":
o_vecs.append(np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32))
else:
parts = col.split("_", 1)
if len(parts) != 2:
raise ValueError(f"Oracle Feature Error: {col}")
tf, key = parts
if tf not in numpy_htf:
if self.STRICT_FEATURES:
raise ValueError(f"Oracle requires TF not built: {tf} (feature: {col})")
self._warn_missing_once(f"Oracle TF missing -> {col}. Filled 0.")
o_vecs.append(np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32))
continue
if key not in numpy_htf[tf]:
if self.STRICT_FEATURES:
raise ValueError(f"Missing Oracle Feature: {col}")
self._warn_missing_once(f"Missing Oracle Feature -> {col}. Filled 0.")
o_vecs.append(np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32))
continue
idx = maps[tf]
vals = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32)
valid = idx >= 0
vals[valid] = numpy_htf[tf][key][idx[valid]]
o_vecs.append(vals)
X_ORACLE = np.column_stack(o_vecs)
preds_o = self.proc.oracle.model_direction.predict(X_ORACLE)
if isinstance(preds_o, np.ndarray) and len(preds_o.shape) > 1:
preds_o = preds_o[:, 0]
global_oracle_scores = preds_o.astype(np.float32)
# 5) Sniper (GEM-FIXED: Shape & Broadcasting Safety)
df_sniper_feats = self.proc.sniper._calculate_features_live(df_1m)
X_sniper = df_sniper_feats[self.proc.sniper.feature_names].fillna(0)
preds_accum = np.zeros(len(X_sniper), dtype=np.float32)
for model in self.proc.sniper.models:
raw_preds = model.predict(X_sniper)
if len(raw_preds.shape) > 1 and raw_preds.shape[1] > 1:
preds_accum += raw_preds[:, 1].astype(np.float32)
else:
preds_accum += raw_preds.astype(np.float32)
global_sniper_scores = (preds_accum / max(1, len(self.proc.sniper.models))).astype(np.float32)
# 6) Hydra Static
map_5 = maps["5m"]
map_15 = maps["15m"]
map_1 = maps.get("1h", map_15)
f_rsi_1m = df_1m["RSI"].values.astype(np.float32)
f_rsi_5m = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32)
v5 = map_5 >= 0
if "5m" in numpy_htf and "RSI" in numpy_htf["5m"]:
f_rsi_5m[v5] = numpy_htf["5m"]["RSI"][map_5[v5]].astype(np.float32)
f_rsi_15m = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32)
v15 = map_15 >= 0
if "15m" in numpy_htf and "RSI" in numpy_htf["15m"]:
f_rsi_15m[v15] = numpy_htf["15m"]["RSI"][map_15[v15]].astype(np.float32)
f_dist_1h = np.zeros(len(arr_ts_1m), dtype=np.float32)
v1 = map_1 >= 0
ema20_1h = numpy_htf["1h"]["ema20"][map_1[v1]].astype(np.float32)
close_1h = numpy_htf["1h"]["close"][map_1[v1]].astype(np.float32)
f_dist_1h[v1] = (close_1h - ema20_1h) / (close_1h + 1e-12)
hydra_static = np.column_stack(
[
f_rsi_1m,
f_rsi_5m,
f_rsi_15m,
df_1m["bb_width"].values.astype(np.float32),
df_1m["rel_vol"].values.astype(np.float32),
f_dist_1h,
(df_1m["ATR_pct"].values.astype(np.float32) / 100.0),
]
).astype(np.float32)
# ==========================================
# ๐ข GEM-FIX: Relaxed Saving Thresholds
# ==========================================
min_gov = 0.01
min_oracle = 0.01
min_titan = 0.01
min_sniper = 0.01
min_pattern = 0.01
filter_mask = (
validity_mask
& (coin_state > 0)
& (gov_scores_final >= min_gov)
& (global_oracle_scores >= min_oracle)
& (global_titan_scores >= min_titan)
& (global_sniper_scores >= min_sniper)
& (global_pattern_scores >= min_pattern)
)
valid_idxs = np.where(filter_mask)[0]
signals_df = pd.DataFrame(
{
"timestamp": arr_ts_1m[valid_idxs],
"symbol": sym,
"close": fast_1m_close[valid_idxs],
"coin_state": coin_state[valid_idxs],
"gov_score": gov_scores_final[valid_idxs],
"titan_score": global_titan_scores[valid_idxs].astype(np.float32),
"oracle_conf": global_oracle_scores[valid_idxs].astype(np.float32),
"sniper_score": global_sniper_scores[valid_idxs].astype(np.float32),
"pattern_score": global_pattern_scores[valid_idxs].astype(np.float32),
}
)
sim_data = {
"timestamp": arr_ts_1m.astype(np.int64),
"close": fast_1m_close,
"high": df_1m["high"].values.astype(np.float32),
"low": df_1m["low"].values.astype(np.float32),
"atr": df_1m["ATR"].values.astype(np.float32),
"hydra_static": hydra_static,
"oracle_conf": global_oracle_scores.astype(np.float32),
"titan_score": global_titan_scores.astype(np.float32),
}
pd.to_pickle({"signals": signals_df, "sim_data": sim_data}, scores_file)
dt = time.time() - t0
print(f" โ
[{sym}] Processed in {dt:.2f}s. Signals: {len(signals_df)}")
gc.collect()
async def generate_truth_data(self):
if self.USE_FIXED_DATES:
dt_s = datetime.strptime(self.force_start_date, "%Y-%m-%d").replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
dt_e = datetime.strptime(self.force_end_date, "%Y-%m-%d").replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
else:
now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
dt_s = now - timedelta(days=self.LOOKBACK_DAYS)
dt_e = now
ms_s = int(dt_s.timestamp() * 1000)
ms_e = int(dt_e.timestamp() * 1000)
for sym in self.TARGET_COINS:
try:
c = await self._fetch_all_data_fast(sym, ms_s, ms_e)
if c:
await self._process_data_in_memory(sym, c, ms_s, ms_e)
except Exception as e:
print(f"[WARN] {sym} skipped due to error: {e}")
traceback.print_exc()
# =========================
# Optimization core (unchanged from your last version)
# =========================
def _flush_position_interval(
self, cfg, open_sym, pos, curr_ts, sim_env, crash_model, giveback_model, fees_pct,
trade_pnls, trade_returns, trade_durations, equity_curve, cash_bal, wins_losses,
last_update_map, end_idx_override=None
):
c_data = sim_env[open_sym]
full_ts = c_data["timestamp"]
start_idx = int(last_update_map.get(open_sym, 0))
if start_idx < 0:
start_idx = 0
if end_idx_override is None:
end_idx = int(np.searchsorted(full_ts, curr_ts, side="right"))
else:
end_idx = int(end_idx_override)
end_idx = min(end_idx, len(full_ts))
if end_idx <= start_idx:
return cash_bal, False
interval_high = c_data["high"][start_idx:end_idx]
interval_low = c_data["low"][start_idx:end_idx]
interval_close = c_data["close"][start_idx:end_idx]
interval_atr = c_data["atr"][start_idx:end_idx]
h_static = c_data["hydra_static"][start_idx:end_idx]
h_oracle = c_data["oracle_conf"][start_idx:end_idx]
h_titan = c_data["titan_score"][start_idx:end_idx]
entry_p = float(pos["entry_p"])
entry_time = int(pos["entry_ts"])
prev_high = float(pos.get("highest_price", entry_p))
current_highs = np.maximum.accumulate(np.concatenate([[prev_high], interval_high]))[1:]
pos["highest_price"] = float(current_highs[-1])
durations = (full_ts[start_idx:end_idx] - entry_time) / 60000.0
sl_dist = np.maximum(1.5 * interval_atr, 1e-8)
pnl = interval_close - entry_p
norm_pnl = pnl / sl_dist
max_pnl = (current_highs - entry_p) / sl_dist
zeros = np.zeros(len(interval_close), dtype=np.float32)
h_dynamic = np.column_stack([norm_pnl, max_pnl, zeros, zeros, durations]).astype(np.float32)
threes = np.full(len(interval_close), 3.0, dtype=np.float32)
h_context = np.column_stack([zeros, h_oracle, h_titan, threes]).astype(np.float32)
X_H = np.column_stack([h_static, h_dynamic, h_context]).astype(np.float32)
crash_probs = crash_model.predict_proba(X_H)[:, 1]
give_probs = giveback_model.predict_proba(X_H)[:, 1]
sl_hit = interval_low < pos["sl_p"]
tp_hit = interval_high > pos["tp_p"]
hydra_hit = (crash_probs > cfg["HYDRA_THRESH"]) | (give_probs > cfg["HYDRA_THRESH"])
legacy_hit = (crash_probs > cfg["LEGACY_THRESH"]) | (give_probs > cfg["LEGACY_THRESH"])
any_exit = sl_hit | tp_hit | legacy_hit | hydra_hit
last_update_map[open_sym] = end_idx
if not np.any(any_exit):
return cash_bal, False
idx = int(np.argmax(any_exit))
exit_ts = int(full_ts[start_idx + idx])
if sl_hit[idx]:
exit_p = float(pos["sl_p"]) * (1 - self.SLIPPAGE_PCT)
elif tp_hit[idx]:
exit_p = float(pos["tp_p"]) * (1 - self.SLIPPAGE_PCT)
elif legacy_hit[idx]:
exit_p = float(interval_close[idx]) * (1 - (self.SLIPPAGE_PCT * 2.0))
else:
exit_p = float(interval_close[idx]) * (1 - self.SLIPPAGE_PCT)
net = (pos["qty"] * exit_p) * (1 - fees_pct)
cash_bal += net
pnl_real = float(net - pos["cost"])
trade_pnls.append(pnl_real)
trade_returns.append(pnl_real / (float(pos["cost"]) + 1e-12))
trade_durations.append((exit_ts - entry_time) / 60000.0)
equity_curve.append(float(cash_bal))
if pnl_real > 0:
wins_losses["wins"] += 1
else:
wins_losses["losses"] += 1
return cash_bal, True
def _worker_optimize(self, combinations_batch, scores_files, initial_capital, fees_pct, max_slots, target_state):
all_signals = []
sim_env = {}
crash_model = self.proc.guardian_hydra.models["crash"]
giveback_model = self.proc.guardian_hydra.models["giveback"]
for f in scores_files:
try:
data = pd.read_pickle(f)
sig = optimize_dataframe_memory(data.get("signals", None))
if sig is None or len(sig) == 0:
continue
all_signals.append(sig)
sym = str(sig["symbol"].iloc[0])
sim_env[sym] = data["sim_data"]
except:
pass
if not all_signals:
return []
timeline_df = pd.concat(all_signals).sort_values("timestamp").reset_index(drop=True)
t_ts = timeline_df["timestamp"].values.astype(np.int64)
t_sym = timeline_df["symbol"].values
t_close = timeline_df["close"].values.astype(np.float64)
t_state = timeline_df["coin_state"].values
t_gov = timeline_df["gov_score"].values.astype(np.float64)
t_oracle = timeline_df["oracle_conf"].values.astype(np.float64)
t_titan = timeline_df["titan_score"].values.astype(np.float64)
t_sniper = timeline_df["sniper_score"].values.astype(np.float64)
t_pattern = timeline_df["pattern_score"].values.astype(np.float64)
del all_signals, timeline_df
gc.collect()
start_ms = int(t_ts[0]) if len(t_ts) else 0
end_ms = int(t_ts[-1]) if len(t_ts) else 0
res = []
BATCH_SIZE = 300
USE_MARK_TO_MARKET_EQUITY = True
for i in range(0, len(combinations_batch), BATCH_SIZE):
batch = combinations_batch[i : i + BATCH_SIZE]
for cfg in batch:
cash_bal = float(initial_capital)
active_positions = {}
last_update_map = {}
last_price = {}
trade_pnls = []
trade_returns = []
trade_durations = []
equity_curve = [float(initial_capital)]
wins_losses = {"wins": 0, "losses": 0}
exposure_steps = 0
def mark_to_market_equity(curr_ts):
nonlocal exposure_steps
open_val = 0.0
has_open = False
for s, pos in active_positions.items():
px = last_price.get(s, None)
if px is None:
continue
has_open = True
open_val += (pos["qty"] * px * (1 - self.SLIPPAGE_PCT)) * (1 - fees_pct)
if has_open:
exposure_steps += 1
equity_curve.append(float(cash_bal + open_val))
for curr_ts, sym, p, c_state, gov, oracle, titan, sniper, pattern in zip(
t_ts, t_sym, t_close, t_state, t_gov, t_oracle, t_titan, t_sniper, t_pattern
):
sym = str(sym)
last_price[sym] = float(p)
to_close = []
for open_sym, pos in list(active_positions.items()):
cash_bal, closed = self._flush_position_interval(
cfg, open_sym, pos, curr_ts, sim_env, crash_model, giveback_model, fees_pct,
trade_pnls, trade_returns, trade_durations, equity_curve, cash_bal,
wins_losses, last_update_map
)
if closed:
to_close.append(open_sym)
for s in to_close:
del active_positions[s]
if USE_MARK_TO_MARKET_EQUITY:
mark_to_market_equity(curr_ts)
is_valid = (
(int(c_state) == int(target_state))
and (float(gov) >= float(cfg["GOV_SCORE"]))
and (float(oracle) >= float(cfg["ORACLE"]))
and (float(titan) >= float(cfg["TITAN"]))
and (float(sniper) >= float(cfg["SNIPER"]))
and (float(pattern) >= float(cfg["PATTERN"]))
)
if is_valid and sym not in active_positions:
slots = 1 if cash_bal < self.MIN_CAPITAL_FOR_SPLIT else int(max_slots)
if len(active_positions) < slots and cash_bal >= 5.0:
size = (cash_bal * 0.95) if cash_bal < self.MIN_CAPITAL_FOR_SPLIT else (cash_bal / max_slots)
if size >= 5.0:
ep = float(p) * (1 + self.SLIPPAGE_PCT)
fee = float(size) * fees_pct
cost = float(size)
qty = (cost - fee) / (ep + 1e-12)
sym_ts = sim_env[sym]["timestamp"]
idx = int(np.searchsorted(sym_ts, curr_ts, side="right") - 1)
idx = max(0, min(idx, len(sym_ts) - 1))
atr_val = float(sim_env[sym]["atr"][idx])
active_positions[sym] = {
"qty": float(qty),
"entry_p": float(ep),
"cost": float(cost),
"entry_ts": int(curr_ts),
"sl_p": float(ep - 1.5 * atr_val),
"tp_p": float(ep + 2.5 * atr_val),
"highest_price": float(ep),
}
cash_bal -= float(cost)
last_update_map[sym] = min(idx + 1, len(sym_ts))
if not trade_pnls:
continue
max_dd = calc_max_drawdown(equity_curve)
ulcer = calc_ulcer_index(equity_curve)
wins_list = [p for p in trade_pnls if p > 0]
loss_list = [p for p in trade_pnls if p <= 0]
prof_fac = calc_profit_factor(wins_list, loss_list)
mean_pnl = float(np.mean(trade_pnls))
std_pnl = float(np.std(trade_pnls))
sqn = float((mean_pnl / std_pnl) * np.sqrt(len(trade_pnls))) if std_pnl > 0 else 0.0
sharpe = calc_sharpe(trade_returns)
sortino = calc_sortino(trade_returns)
cagr = calc_cagr(initial_capital, cash_bal, start_ms, end_ms)
calmar = calc_calmar(cagr, max_dd)
exposure_pct = float(exposure_steps / max(1, len(t_ts)) * 100.0)
max_w_streak, max_l_streak = calc_consecutive_streaks(trade_pnls)
payoff = float(np.mean(wins_list) / max(abs(np.mean(loss_list)), 1e-12)) if (wins_list and loss_list) else 99.0
res.append({
"config": cfg,
"net_profit": float(cash_bal - initial_capital),
"total_trades": int(len(trade_pnls)),
"final_balance": float(cash_bal),
"win_rate": float((wins_losses["wins"] / len(trade_pnls)) * 100.0),
"sqn": sqn,
"max_drawdown": float(max_dd),
"ulcer_index": ulcer,
"profit_factor": prof_fac,
"payoff_ratio": payoff,
"sharpe": sharpe,
"sortino": sortino,
"cagr": cagr,
"calmar": calmar,
"expectancy": mean_pnl,
"exposure_pct": exposure_pct,
"max_consec_wins": max_w_streak,
"max_consec_losses": max_l_streak,
})
gc.collect()
return res
async def run_optimization(self):
await self.generate_truth_data()
files = glob.glob(os.path.join(CACHE_DIR, "*.pkl"))
keys = list(self.GRID_RANGES.keys())
values = [list(self.GRID_RANGES[k]) for k in keys]
combos = []
seen = set()
while len(combos) < self.MAX_SAMPLES:
c = tuple(np.random.choice(v) for v in values)
if c not in seen:
seen.add(c)
combos.append(dict(zip(keys, c)))
print(f"โ
Generated {len(combos)} configs.")
for state_name, state_id in [("ACCUMULATION", 1), ("SAFE_TREND", 2), ("EXPLOSIVE", 3)]:
print(f"\n๐ Optimizing [{state_name}]...")
results = self._worker_optimize(combos, files, self.INITIAL_CAPITAL, self.TRADING_FEES, self.MAX_SLOTS, state_id)
if not results:
continue
results.sort(key=lambda x: (x["calmar"], x["sqn"]), reverse=True)
best = results[0]
print(f"๐ BEST [{state_name}]:")
print(f" ๐ฐ Net Profit: ${best['net_profit']:.2f} | Final: ${best['final_balance']:.2f}")
print(f" ๐ Trades: {best['total_trades']} | WR: {best['win_rate']:.1f}% | Exp: {best['expectancy']:.4f}")
print(f" ๐ฒ SQN: {best['sqn']:.2f} | PF: {best['profit_factor']:.2f} | Payoff: {best['payoff_ratio']:.2f}")
print(f" ๐ MaxDD: {best['max_drawdown']:.2f}% | Ulcer: {best['ulcer_index']:.2f}")
print(f" ๐ Sharpe/Sortino: {best['sharpe']:.2f} / {best['sortino']:.2f}")
print(f" ๐งฎ CAGR/Calmar: {(best['cagr']*100):.2f}% / {best['calmar']:.2f}")
print(f" โ๏ธ Config: {best['config']}")
# ============================================================
# Runner (Guaranteed cleanup)
# ============================================================
async def run_strategic_optimization_task():
r2 = R2Service()
dm = DataManager(None, None, r2)
proc = MLProcessor(dm)
try:
await dm.initialize()
await proc.initialize()
if getattr(proc, "guardian_hydra", None):
proc.guardian_hydra.set_silent_mode(True)
opt = HeavyDutyBacktester(dm, proc)
await opt.run_optimization()
except Exception as e:
print(f"[ERROR] โ Backtest Failed: {e}")
traceback.print_exc()
finally:
try:
ex = getattr(dm, "exchange", None)
if ex is not None:
await ex.close()
except Exception:
pass
try:
await dm.close()
except Exception:
pass
if __name__ == "__main__":
asyncio.run(run_strategic_optimization_task()) |