feat: upgrade to deep-dive content — hero + arch + competitive matrix + citations (Doctrine v6)
Browse files- README.md +31 -42
- agi-forecast.png +0 -0
- index.html +1347 -372
- style.css +0 -6
README.md
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---
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license: apache-2.0
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sdk: static
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tags:
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- pac-bayes
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- alignment
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- bayesian
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- lean4
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title: agi-forecast-platform
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# agi-forecast — AI Safety Forecasting Gauges
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agi-forecast
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scenario modeling, with Brier score calibration and FG-S1..S4 scenario gates.
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## What
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- Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20424996
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##
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```
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##
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- Live Space: https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer
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- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20424996
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- Doctrine v6: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19944926
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---
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title: AGI Forecast Deep Dive
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sdk: static
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license: apache-2.0
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short_description: PAC-Bayes AI governance forecasting — FG-S1→S4 gates
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tags:
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- governance
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- agentic-ai
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- pac-bayes
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- forecasting
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- ai-governance
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- doctrine-v6
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---
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# agi-forecast Deep-Dive Showcase
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**Forecasting + safety gates for AI governance trajectories.**
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This Space is a deep-dive showcase for [`szl-holdings/agi-forecast`](https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast) — the PAC-Bayes-bounded Λ-axis scenario library with hardcoded FG-S1→S4 governance gates.
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## What's inside
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- **FG-S1 → FG-S4 gate source** — each gate function + threshold, grepped directly from `runtime/src/derived.ts`
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- **Putnam 2025 snapshot (2026-05-27)** — honest: 1 correct out of 12 problems = 8.3%. No score inflation. Receipt chain head: `245c296e…ee24`
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- **Live viewer embed** — SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer iframe
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- **Comparison table** — Metaculus, AI Impacts (FOAA), FRI vs agi-forecast
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- **"What this is NOT"** — doctrine-V6 honesty clause: not an oracle, not a prediction market, not investment advice, not a Putnam champion
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- **Citations** — Brier score spec, Metaculus, FOAA, FRI, Zenodo DOIs
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## Companion Spaces
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- [agi-forecast-viewer](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer) — live Gradio app
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- [agi-forecast-platform](https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-platform) — full platform
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## Repository
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[szl-holdings/agi-forecast](https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast) · Apache 2.0
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DOI: [10.5281/zenodo.20434276](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276)
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ORCID: [0009-0001-0110-4173](https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0110-4173)
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---
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Doctrine V6 · Signed commits · No score inflation
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agi-forecast.png
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<p class="section-desc">12 gauges measure distinct dimensions of AI safety. Their outputs feed into 4 scenario gates (S1–S4) that assess overall trajectory.</p>
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<text x="10" y="20" fill="#506080" font-family="Inter" font-size="9" font-weight="600">GAUGES — input to evaluate()</text>
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<text x="51" y="48" text-anchor="middle" fill="#ff6b35" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="8">FG-01 Overhang</text>
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<rect x="10" y="64" width="82" height="30" rx="6" fill="#141b30" stroke="#e05e2e" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="51" y="84" text-anchor="middle" fill="#ff6b35" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="8">FG-02 Explain</text>
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<text x="51" y="120" text-anchor="middle" fill="#ff6b35" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="8">FG-03 Align</text>
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<rect x="10" y="136" width="82" height="30" rx="6" fill="#141b30" stroke="#9060cc" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="51" y="156" text-anchor="middle" fill="#ff6b35" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="8">FG-04..FG-08</text>
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<rect x="10" y="172" width="82" height="30" rx="6" fill="#141b30" stroke="#4d7cfe" stroke-width="1"/>
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<text x="51" y="192" text-anchor="middle" fill="#4d7cfe" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="8">FG-09..FG-12</text>
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<!-- Arrows to gauges.ts -->
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<line x1="92" y1="79" x2="160" y2="105" stroke="url(#fgGrad)" stroke-width="1" opacity="0.5"/>
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<line x1="92" y1="115" x2="160" y2="110" stroke="url(#fgGrad)" stroke-width="1" opacity="0.5"/>
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<line x1="92" y1="151" x2="160" y2="115" stroke="url(#fgGrad)" stroke-width="1" opacity="0.5"/>
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<line x1="92" y1="187" x2="160" y2="120" stroke="url(#fgGrad)" stroke-width="1" opacity="0.5"/>
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<!-- gauges.ts box -->
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<text x="225" y="100" text-anchor="middle" fill="#ff6b35" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="9" font-weight="700">gauges.ts</text>
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<text x="225" y="118" text-anchor="middle" fill="#f0f2fc" font-family="Inter" font-size="8">Zod-validated</text>
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<text x="225" y="133" text-anchor="middle" fill="#8090c0" font-family="Inter" font-size="7">clamp [0,1]</text>
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<!-- brier.ts -->
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<text x="395" y="107" text-anchor="middle" fill="#8060cc" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="9">brier.ts</text>
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<text x="395" y="123" text-anchor="middle" fill="#8090c0" font-family="Inter" font-size="8">calibration</text>
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<text x="555" y="107" text-anchor="middle" fill="#4d7cfe" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="9">derived.ts</text>
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<text x="555" y="123" text-anchor="middle" fill="#8090c0" font-family="Inter" font-size="8">aggregation</text>
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<!-- Scenario gates -->
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<text x="750" y="25" text-anchor="middle" fill="#506080" font-family="Inter" font-size="9" font-weight="600">SCENARIO GATES</text>
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<text x="700" y="170" text-anchor="middle" fill="#4d7cfe" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="8">FG-S4</text>
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<line x1="650" y1="110" x2="660" y2="125" stroke="#4d7cfe" stroke-width="1" opacity="0.4"/>
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<text x="420" y="241" text-anchor="middle" fill="#ff6b35" font-family="JetBrains Mono" font-size="9" font-weight="700">PUTNAM BENCHMARK 2026-05-27</text>
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<text x="420" y="258" text-anchor="middle" fill="#8090c0" font-family="Inter" font-size="8">12 problems attempted · 1 correct · 11 incorrect · Brier-scored · receipted gauge.json</text>
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<div class="step-num">03</div>
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<h3>brier.ts computes calibration score</h3>
|
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<p><span class="fact-mono">brier.ts</span> accumulates GaugeResults and computes the proper Brier score: the mean-squared error between predicted probability and observed outcome. Lower scores indicate better calibration.</p>
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<div class="step-num">04</div>
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| 301 |
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<h3>FG-S1..S4 scenario gates aggregate derived outputs</h3>
|
| 302 |
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<p>The <span class="fact-mono">derived.ts</span> module aggregates FG gauge outputs into four scenario-level assessments (S1: current risk, S2: near-term trajectory, S3: structural resilience, S4: governance coverage). Each gate returns a pass/fail verdict.</p>
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<pre><code>// Call FG-01 (Capability Overhang gauge)
|
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|
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// { gaugeId: 'FG-01', value: 0.7, brier_input: 0.7, label: 'Capability Overhang', timestamp: '...' }
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| 383 |
</div>
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| 384 |
</div>
|
| 385 |
-
</section>
|
| 386 |
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| 387 |
-
<
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| 388 |
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| 389 |
-
<
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| 390 |
<div class="container">
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| 391 |
-
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| 392 |
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| 398 |
</div>
|
| 399 |
-
</section>
|
| 400 |
|
| 401 |
-
<
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|
| 402 |
<div class="container">
|
| 403 |
-
|
| 404 |
-
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| 405 |
-
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| 406 |
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| 407 |
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| 408 |
-
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| 409 |
</div>
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|
| 410 |
</div>
|
| 411 |
-
</
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|
| 412 |
</body>
|
| 413 |
</html>
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
<!DOCTYPE html>
|
| 2 |
+
<html lang="en" data-theme="dark">
|
| 3 |
<head>
|
| 4 |
+
<meta charset="UTF-8" />
|
| 5 |
+
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" />
|
| 6 |
+
<title>AGI Forecast — Deep-Dive Showcase | SZL Holdings</title>
|
| 7 |
+
<meta name="description" content="Forecasting and safety gates for AI governance trajectories. FG-S1→S4 governance gates, Putnam 2025 benchmark snapshot (1/12 = 8.3%), and scenario library." />
|
| 8 |
+
<meta property="og:title" content="AGI Forecast Deep-Dive | SZL Holdings" />
|
| 9 |
+
<meta property="og:description" content="Forecasting + safety gates for AI governance trajectories. FG-S1→S4 governance gates + Putnam 2025 benchmark snapshot." />
|
| 10 |
+
<meta property="og:image" content="https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-deep-dive/resolve/main/agi-forecast.png" />
|
| 11 |
+
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com" />
|
| 12 |
+
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin />
|
| 13 |
+
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=JetBrains+Mono:wght@400;500;700&family=DM+Sans:wght@300..700&display=swap" rel="stylesheet" />
|
| 14 |
+
<style>
|
| 15 |
+
/* ─── Design tokens ────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 16 |
+
:root {
|
| 17 |
+
--text-xs: clamp(0.75rem, 0.7rem + 0.25vw, 0.875rem);
|
| 18 |
+
--text-sm: clamp(0.875rem, 0.8rem + 0.35vw, 1rem);
|
| 19 |
+
--text-base: clamp(1rem, 0.95rem + 0.25vw, 1.125rem);
|
| 20 |
+
--text-lg: clamp(1.125rem, 1rem + 0.75vw, 1.5rem);
|
| 21 |
+
--text-xl: clamp(1.5rem, 1.2rem + 1.25vw, 2.25rem);
|
| 22 |
+
--text-2xl: clamp(2rem, 1.2rem + 2.5vw, 3.5rem);
|
| 23 |
+
--text-3xl: clamp(2.5rem, 1rem + 4vw, 5rem);
|
| 24 |
+
|
| 25 |
+
--space-1: 0.25rem; --space-2: 0.5rem; --space-3: 0.75rem;
|
| 26 |
+
--space-4: 1rem; --space-5: 1.25rem; --space-6: 1.5rem;
|
| 27 |
+
--space-8: 2rem; --space-10: 2.5rem; --space-12: 3rem;
|
| 28 |
+
--space-16: 4rem; --space-20: 5rem; --space-24: 6rem;
|
| 29 |
+
|
| 30 |
+
--radius-sm: 0.375rem; --radius-md: 0.5rem;
|
| 31 |
+
--radius-lg: 0.75rem; --radius-xl: 1rem;
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
--transition-ui: 180ms cubic-bezier(0.16, 1, 0.3, 1);
|
| 34 |
+
|
| 35 |
+
--content-narrow: 640px;
|
| 36 |
+
--content-default: 960px;
|
| 37 |
+
--content-wide: 1200px;
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
/* Brand palette — dark blue / orange */
|
| 40 |
+
--color-bg: #0a0f1f;
|
| 41 |
+
--color-surface: #0e1529;
|
| 42 |
+
--color-surface-2: #111a30;
|
| 43 |
+
--color-surface-3: #162040;
|
| 44 |
+
--color-border: #1e2d4a;
|
| 45 |
+
--color-divider: #1a2540;
|
| 46 |
+
|
| 47 |
+
--color-text: #e8ecf4;
|
| 48 |
+
--color-text-muted: #8a98b8;
|
| 49 |
+
--color-text-faint: #4a5570;
|
| 50 |
+
--color-text-inverse: #0a0f1f;
|
| 51 |
+
|
| 52 |
+
--color-orange: #ff6b35;
|
| 53 |
+
--color-orange-hover: #ff854d;
|
| 54 |
+
--color-orange-dim: rgba(255,107,53,0.15);
|
| 55 |
+
--color-orange-glow: rgba(255,107,53,0.25);
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
--color-blue-accent: #4a9eff;
|
| 58 |
+
--color-blue-dim: rgba(74,158,255,0.12);
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
--color-success: #22c55e;
|
| 61 |
+
--color-warning: #eab308;
|
| 62 |
+
--color-error: #ef4444;
|
| 63 |
+
|
| 64 |
+
--shadow-sm: 0 1px 3px rgba(0,0,0,0.4);
|
| 65 |
+
--shadow-md: 0 4px 16px rgba(0,0,0,0.5);
|
| 66 |
+
--shadow-lg: 0 12px 40px rgba(0,0,0,0.6);
|
| 67 |
+
--shadow-orange: 0 0 24px rgba(255,107,53,0.2);
|
| 68 |
+
|
| 69 |
+
--font-display: 'JetBrains Mono', 'Courier New', monospace;
|
| 70 |
+
--font-body: 'DM Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;
|
| 71 |
+
}
|
| 72 |
+
|
| 73 |
+
/* ─── Base reset ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 74 |
+
*, *::before, *::after { box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; padding: 0; }
|
| 75 |
+
html {
|
| 76 |
+
-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;
|
| 77 |
+
-moz-osx-font-smoothing: grayscale;
|
| 78 |
+
scroll-behavior: smooth;
|
| 79 |
+
scroll-padding-top: var(--space-16);
|
| 80 |
+
}
|
| 81 |
+
body {
|
| 82 |
+
min-height: 100dvh;
|
| 83 |
+
font-family: var(--font-body);
|
| 84 |
+
font-size: var(--text-base);
|
| 85 |
+
color: var(--color-text);
|
| 86 |
+
background-color: var(--color-bg);
|
| 87 |
+
line-height: 1.6;
|
| 88 |
+
overflow-x: hidden;
|
| 89 |
+
}
|
| 90 |
+
img, picture, video, canvas, svg { display: block; max-width: 100%; height: auto; }
|
| 91 |
+
ul[role='list'], ol[role='list'] { list-style: none; }
|
| 92 |
+
h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6 { text-wrap: balance; line-height: 1.15; }
|
| 93 |
+
p, li, figcaption { text-wrap: pretty; max-width: 72ch; }
|
| 94 |
+
button { cursor: pointer; background: none; border: none; font: inherit; color: inherit; }
|
| 95 |
+
table { border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; }
|
| 96 |
+
a { color: var(--color-orange); text-decoration: none; transition: color var(--transition-ui); }
|
| 97 |
+
a:hover { color: var(--color-orange-hover); }
|
| 98 |
+
:focus-visible { outline: 2px solid var(--color-orange); outline-offset: 3px; border-radius: var(--radius-sm); }
|
| 99 |
+
|
| 100 |
+
/* ─── Grid background ─────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 101 |
+
body::before {
|
| 102 |
+
content: '';
|
| 103 |
+
position: fixed;
|
| 104 |
+
inset: 0;
|
| 105 |
+
background-image:
|
| 106 |
+
linear-gradient(rgba(255,107,53,0.03) 1px, transparent 1px),
|
| 107 |
+
linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(255,107,53,0.03) 1px, transparent 1px);
|
| 108 |
+
background-size: 40px 40px;
|
| 109 |
+
pointer-events: none;
|
| 110 |
+
z-index: 0;
|
| 111 |
+
}
|
| 112 |
+
|
| 113 |
+
/* ─── Layout ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 114 |
+
.container {
|
| 115 |
+
max-width: var(--content-wide);
|
| 116 |
+
margin-inline: auto;
|
| 117 |
+
padding-inline: clamp(var(--space-6), 5vw, var(--space-16));
|
| 118 |
+
}
|
| 119 |
+
.container--narrow { max-width: var(--content-default); margin-inline: auto; padding-inline: clamp(var(--space-6), 5vw, var(--space-16)); }
|
| 120 |
+
section { position: relative; z-index: 1; padding-block: clamp(var(--space-12), 8vw, var(--space-24)); }
|
| 121 |
+
section + section { border-top: 1px solid var(--color-divider); }
|
| 122 |
+
|
| 123 |
+
/* ─── Nav ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 124 |
+
.nav {
|
| 125 |
+
position: sticky; top: 0; z-index: 100;
|
| 126 |
+
background: rgba(10,15,31,0.92);
|
| 127 |
+
backdrop-filter: blur(16px);
|
| 128 |
+
-webkit-backdrop-filter: blur(16px);
|
| 129 |
+
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-divider);
|
| 130 |
+
padding-block: var(--space-4);
|
| 131 |
+
}
|
| 132 |
+
.nav__inner {
|
| 133 |
+
max-width: var(--content-wide);
|
| 134 |
+
margin-inline: auto;
|
| 135 |
+
padding-inline: clamp(var(--space-6), 5vw, var(--space-16));
|
| 136 |
+
display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: space-between; gap: var(--space-8);
|
| 137 |
+
}
|
| 138 |
+
.nav__logo {
|
| 139 |
+
display: flex; align-items: center; gap: var(--space-3);
|
| 140 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 141 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm);
|
| 142 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 143 |
+
color: var(--color-text);
|
| 144 |
+
letter-spacing: 0.05em;
|
| 145 |
+
text-decoration: none;
|
| 146 |
+
}
|
| 147 |
+
.nav__logo svg { flex-shrink: 0; }
|
| 148 |
+
.nav__links {
|
| 149 |
+
display: flex; align-items: center; gap: var(--space-6);
|
| 150 |
+
list-style: none;
|
| 151 |
+
}
|
| 152 |
+
.nav__links a {
|
| 153 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm);
|
| 154 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 155 |
+
transition: color var(--transition-ui);
|
| 156 |
+
}
|
| 157 |
+
.nav__links a:hover { color: var(--color-orange); }
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
/* ─── Hero ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 160 |
+
.hero {
|
| 161 |
+
min-height: 85vh;
|
| 162 |
+
display: flex; align-items: center;
|
| 163 |
+
padding-block: clamp(var(--space-16), 10vw, var(--space-24));
|
| 164 |
+
position: relative;
|
| 165 |
+
overflow: hidden;
|
| 166 |
+
}
|
| 167 |
+
.hero::after {
|
| 168 |
+
content: '';
|
| 169 |
+
position: absolute;
|
| 170 |
+
top: -30%;
|
| 171 |
+
left: 50%;
|
| 172 |
+
transform: translateX(-50%);
|
| 173 |
+
width: 800px; height: 800px;
|
| 174 |
+
background: radial-gradient(ellipse, rgba(255,107,53,0.08) 0%, transparent 65%);
|
| 175 |
+
pointer-events: none;
|
| 176 |
+
}
|
| 177 |
+
.hero__inner {
|
| 178 |
+
display: grid;
|
| 179 |
+
grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr;
|
| 180 |
+
gap: var(--space-16);
|
| 181 |
+
align-items: center;
|
| 182 |
+
width: 100%;
|
| 183 |
+
}
|
| 184 |
+
.hero__badge {
|
| 185 |
+
display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: var(--space-2);
|
| 186 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 187 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 188 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 189 |
+
text-transform: uppercase;
|
| 190 |
+
letter-spacing: 0.12em;
|
| 191 |
+
color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 192 |
+
border: 1px solid rgba(255,107,53,0.35);
|
| 193 |
+
background: rgba(255,107,53,0.08);
|
| 194 |
+
padding: var(--space-2) var(--space-4);
|
| 195 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-full, 9999px);
|
| 196 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-6);
|
| 197 |
+
}
|
| 198 |
+
.hero__badge::before {
|
| 199 |
+
content: '';
|
| 200 |
+
width: 6px; height: 6px;
|
| 201 |
+
border-radius: 50%;
|
| 202 |
+
background: var(--color-orange);
|
| 203 |
+
animation: pulse 2s ease-in-out infinite;
|
| 204 |
+
}
|
| 205 |
+
@keyframes pulse {
|
| 206 |
+
0%, 100% { opacity: 1; transform: scale(1); }
|
| 207 |
+
50% { opacity: 0.5; transform: scale(0.8); }
|
| 208 |
+
}
|
| 209 |
+
.hero__title {
|
| 210 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 211 |
+
font-size: var(--text-3xl);
|
| 212 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 213 |
+
color: var(--color-text);
|
| 214 |
+
letter-spacing: -0.02em;
|
| 215 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-6);
|
| 216 |
+
line-height: 1.1;
|
| 217 |
+
}
|
| 218 |
+
.hero__title .accent { color: var(--color-orange); }
|
| 219 |
+
.hero__tagline {
|
| 220 |
+
font-size: var(--text-lg);
|
| 221 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 222 |
+
max-width: 56ch;
|
| 223 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-10);
|
| 224 |
+
line-height: 1.65;
|
| 225 |
+
}
|
| 226 |
+
.hero__ctas {
|
| 227 |
+
display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: var(--space-4);
|
| 228 |
+
}
|
| 229 |
+
.btn {
|
| 230 |
+
display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: var(--space-2);
|
| 231 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm); font-weight: 600;
|
| 232 |
+
padding: var(--space-3) var(--space-6);
|
| 233 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-md);
|
| 234 |
+
transition: all var(--transition-ui);
|
| 235 |
+
text-decoration: none;
|
| 236 |
+
}
|
| 237 |
+
.btn--primary {
|
| 238 |
+
background: var(--color-orange);
|
| 239 |
+
color: #0a0f1f;
|
| 240 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-orange);
|
| 241 |
+
box-shadow: var(--shadow-orange);
|
| 242 |
+
}
|
| 243 |
+
.btn--primary:hover {
|
| 244 |
+
background: var(--color-orange-hover);
|
| 245 |
+
color: #0a0f1f;
|
| 246 |
+
transform: translateY(-1px);
|
| 247 |
+
box-shadow: 0 0 32px rgba(255,107,53,0.35);
|
| 248 |
+
}
|
| 249 |
+
.btn--outline {
|
| 250 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 251 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 252 |
+
background: transparent;
|
| 253 |
+
}
|
| 254 |
+
.btn--outline:hover {
|
| 255 |
+
border-color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 256 |
+
color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 257 |
+
}
|
| 258 |
+
.hero__image-frame {
|
| 259 |
+
position: relative;
|
| 260 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-xl);
|
| 261 |
+
overflow: hidden;
|
| 262 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 263 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 264 |
+
box-shadow: var(--shadow-lg), 0 0 60px rgba(255,107,53,0.08);
|
| 265 |
+
}
|
| 266 |
+
.hero__image-frame img {
|
| 267 |
+
width: 100%; height: auto;
|
| 268 |
+
display: block;
|
| 269 |
+
}
|
| 270 |
+
.hero__image-overlay {
|
| 271 |
+
position: absolute; inset: 0;
|
| 272 |
+
background: linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(255,107,53,0.06) 0%, transparent 60%);
|
| 273 |
+
pointer-events: none;
|
| 274 |
+
}
|
| 275 |
+
|
| 276 |
+
/* ─── Section labels ──────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 277 |
+
.section-label {
|
| 278 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 279 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 280 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 281 |
+
text-transform: uppercase;
|
| 282 |
+
letter-spacing: 0.15em;
|
| 283 |
+
color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 284 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-4);
|
| 285 |
+
}
|
| 286 |
+
.section-heading {
|
| 287 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 288 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xl);
|
| 289 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 290 |
+
color: var(--color-text);
|
| 291 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-6);
|
| 292 |
+
letter-spacing: -0.01em;
|
| 293 |
+
}
|
| 294 |
+
.section-body {
|
| 295 |
+
font-size: var(--text-base);
|
| 296 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 297 |
+
line-height: 1.7;
|
| 298 |
+
}
|
| 299 |
+
|
| 300 |
+
/* ─── Cards ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 301 |
+
.card {
|
| 302 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 303 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 304 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-lg);
|
| 305 |
+
padding: var(--space-6);
|
| 306 |
+
transition: border-color var(--transition-ui), box-shadow var(--transition-ui);
|
| 307 |
+
}
|
| 308 |
+
.card:hover {
|
| 309 |
+
border-color: rgba(255,107,53,0.3);
|
| 310 |
+
box-shadow: 0 0 20px rgba(255,107,53,0.06);
|
| 311 |
+
}
|
| 312 |
+
|
| 313 |
+
/* ─── What is agi-forecast ────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 314 |
+
.what-grid {
|
| 315 |
+
display: grid;
|
| 316 |
+
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(280px, 1fr));
|
| 317 |
+
gap: var(--space-5);
|
| 318 |
+
margin-top: var(--space-10);
|
| 319 |
+
}
|
| 320 |
+
.what-card {
|
| 321 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 322 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 323 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-lg);
|
| 324 |
+
padding: var(--space-6);
|
| 325 |
+
}
|
| 326 |
+
.what-card__icon {
|
| 327 |
+
width: 44px; height: 44px;
|
| 328 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-md);
|
| 329 |
+
background: var(--color-orange-dim);
|
| 330 |
+
border: 1px solid rgba(255,107,53,0.2);
|
| 331 |
+
display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center;
|
| 332 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-4);
|
| 333 |
+
color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 334 |
+
font-size: 1.25rem;
|
| 335 |
+
}
|
| 336 |
+
.what-card__title {
|
| 337 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 338 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm);
|
| 339 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 340 |
+
color: var(--color-text);
|
| 341 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-3);
|
| 342 |
+
}
|
| 343 |
+
.what-card__body {
|
| 344 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm);
|
| 345 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 346 |
+
line-height: 1.65;
|
| 347 |
+
}
|
| 348 |
+
|
| 349 |
+
/* ─── Gates ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 350 |
+
.gates-grid {
|
| 351 |
+
display: grid;
|
| 352 |
+
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(260px, 1fr));
|
| 353 |
+
gap: var(--space-5);
|
| 354 |
+
margin-top: var(--space-10);
|
| 355 |
+
}
|
| 356 |
+
.gate-card {
|
| 357 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 358 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 359 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-lg);
|
| 360 |
+
padding: var(--space-6);
|
| 361 |
+
position: relative;
|
| 362 |
+
overflow: hidden;
|
| 363 |
+
}
|
| 364 |
+
.gate-card::before {
|
| 365 |
+
content: '';
|
| 366 |
+
position: absolute;
|
| 367 |
+
top: 0; left: 0; right: 0;
|
| 368 |
+
height: 3px;
|
| 369 |
+
}
|
| 370 |
+
.gate-card--s1::before { background: var(--color-blue-accent); }
|
| 371 |
+
.gate-card--s2::before { background: var(--color-warning); }
|
| 372 |
+
.gate-card--s3::before { background: var(--color-success); }
|
| 373 |
+
.gate-card--s4::before { background: var(--color-error); }
|
| 374 |
+
|
| 375 |
+
.gate-id {
|
| 376 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 377 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 378 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 379 |
+
letter-spacing: 0.1em;
|
| 380 |
+
padding: var(--space-1) var(--space-3);
|
| 381 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-sm);
|
| 382 |
+
display: inline-block;
|
| 383 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-4);
|
| 384 |
+
}
|
| 385 |
+
.gate-id--s1 { background: rgba(74,158,255,0.15); color: var(--color-blue-accent); }
|
| 386 |
+
.gate-id--s2 { background: rgba(234,179,8,0.15); color: var(--color-warning); }
|
| 387 |
+
.gate-id--s3 { background: rgba(34,197,94,0.15); color: var(--color-success); }
|
| 388 |
+
.gate-id--s4 { background: rgba(239,68,68,0.15); color: var(--color-error); }
|
| 389 |
+
|
| 390 |
+
.gate-name {
|
| 391 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 392 |
+
font-size: var(--text-base);
|
| 393 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 394 |
+
color: var(--color-text);
|
| 395 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-3);
|
| 396 |
+
}
|
| 397 |
+
.gate-desc {
|
| 398 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm);
|
| 399 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 400 |
+
line-height: 1.65;
|
| 401 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-5);
|
| 402 |
+
}
|
| 403 |
+
.gate-code {
|
| 404 |
+
background: var(--color-bg);
|
| 405 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 406 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-md);
|
| 407 |
+
padding: var(--space-4);
|
| 408 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 409 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 410 |
+
color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 411 |
+
line-height: 1.6;
|
| 412 |
+
overflow-x: auto;
|
| 413 |
+
}
|
| 414 |
+
.gate-code .kw { color: var(--color-blue-accent); }
|
| 415 |
+
.gate-code .fn { color: #a78bfa; }
|
| 416 |
+
.gate-code .num { color: var(--color-warning); }
|
| 417 |
+
.gate-code .cm { color: var(--color-text-faint); }
|
| 418 |
+
.gate-threshold {
|
| 419 |
+
display: flex; align-items: center; gap: var(--space-2);
|
| 420 |
+
margin-top: var(--space-4);
|
| 421 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 422 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 423 |
+
font-weight: 500;
|
| 424 |
+
}
|
| 425 |
+
.gate-threshold__dot {
|
| 426 |
+
width: 8px; height: 8px; border-radius: 50%; flex-shrink: 0;
|
| 427 |
+
}
|
| 428 |
+
|
| 429 |
+
/* ─── Putnam section ──────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 430 |
+
.putnam-layout {
|
| 431 |
+
display: grid;
|
| 432 |
+
grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr;
|
| 433 |
+
gap: var(--space-12);
|
| 434 |
+
align-items: start;
|
| 435 |
+
margin-top: var(--space-10);
|
| 436 |
+
}
|
| 437 |
+
.putnam-score-block {
|
| 438 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 439 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 440 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-xl);
|
| 441 |
+
padding: var(--space-8);
|
| 442 |
+
text-align: center;
|
| 443 |
+
}
|
| 444 |
+
.putnam-big-number {
|
| 445 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 446 |
+
font-size: clamp(3rem, 8vw, 5.5rem);
|
| 447 |
+
font-weight: 700;
|
| 448 |
+
color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 449 |
+
line-height: 1;
|
| 450 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-3);
|
| 451 |
+
}
|
| 452 |
+
.putnam-fraction {
|
| 453 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 454 |
+
font-size: var(--text-lg);
|
| 455 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 456 |
+
margin-bottom: var(--space-6);
|
| 457 |
+
}
|
| 458 |
+
.putnam-meta {
|
| 459 |
+
list-style: none;
|
| 460 |
+
display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: var(--space-3);
|
| 461 |
+
text-align: left;
|
| 462 |
+
}
|
| 463 |
+
.putnam-meta li {
|
| 464 |
+
display: flex; justify-content: space-between;
|
| 465 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm);
|
| 466 |
+
padding: var(--space-3) var(--space-4);
|
| 467 |
+
background: var(--color-surface-2);
|
| 468 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-md);
|
| 469 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 470 |
+
max-width: none;
|
| 471 |
+
}
|
| 472 |
+
.putnam-meta li span:last-child {
|
| 473 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 474 |
+
color: var(--color-orange);
|
| 475 |
+
}
|
| 476 |
+
.putnam-honest-box {
|
| 477 |
+
background: rgba(239,68,68,0.06);
|
| 478 |
+
border: 1px solid rgba(239,68,68,0.25);
|
| 479 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-lg);
|
| 480 |
+
padding: var(--space-5);
|
| 481 |
+
font-size: var(--text-sm);
|
| 482 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 483 |
+
line-height: 1.65;
|
| 484 |
+
margin-top: var(--space-5);
|
| 485 |
+
}
|
| 486 |
+
.putnam-honest-box strong { color: var(--color-error); }
|
| 487 |
+
|
| 488 |
+
/* Context leaderboard */
|
| 489 |
+
.leaderboard-table {
|
| 490 |
+
margin-top: var(--space-5);
|
| 491 |
+
overflow-x: auto;
|
| 492 |
+
}
|
| 493 |
+
.leaderboard-table table { font-size: var(--text-sm); }
|
| 494 |
+
.leaderboard-table th {
|
| 495 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 496 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 497 |
+
text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.1em;
|
| 498 |
+
color: var(--color-text-faint);
|
| 499 |
+
padding: var(--space-3) var(--space-4);
|
| 500 |
+
text-align: left;
|
| 501 |
+
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-divider);
|
| 502 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 503 |
+
}
|
| 504 |
+
.leaderboard-table td {
|
| 505 |
+
padding: var(--space-3) var(--space-4);
|
| 506 |
+
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-divider);
|
| 507 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 508 |
+
}
|
| 509 |
+
.leaderboard-table tr:last-child td { border-bottom: none; }
|
| 510 |
+
.leaderboard-table .highlight td { color: var(--color-text); background: rgba(255,107,53,0.05); }
|
| 511 |
+
.leaderboard-table .score-high { color: var(--color-success); font-family: var(--font-display); font-weight: 700; }
|
| 512 |
+
.leaderboard-table .score-low { color: var(--color-orange); font-family: var(--font-display); font-weight: 700; }
|
| 513 |
+
|
| 514 |
+
/* ─── Live viewer iframe ──────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 515 |
+
.viewer-frame {
|
| 516 |
+
width: 100%;
|
| 517 |
+
height: 700px;
|
| 518 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 519 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-xl);
|
| 520 |
+
overflow: hidden;
|
| 521 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 522 |
+
box-shadow: var(--shadow-lg);
|
| 523 |
+
}
|
| 524 |
+
.viewer-frame iframe {
|
| 525 |
+
width: 100%; height: 100%; border: none;
|
| 526 |
+
}
|
| 527 |
+
|
| 528 |
+
/* ─── Comparison table ────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 529 |
+
.comparison-wrap { margin-top: var(--space-10); overflow-x: auto; }
|
| 530 |
+
.comparison-table { font-size: var(--text-sm); min-width: 700px; }
|
| 531 |
+
.comparison-table th {
|
| 532 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 533 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 534 |
+
text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.1em;
|
| 535 |
+
color: var(--color-text-faint);
|
| 536 |
+
padding: var(--space-4) var(--space-5);
|
| 537 |
+
text-align: center;
|
| 538 |
+
border-bottom: 2px solid var(--color-divider);
|
| 539 |
+
background: var(--color-surface);
|
| 540 |
+
}
|
| 541 |
+
.comparison-table th:first-child { text-align: left; }
|
| 542 |
+
.comparison-table td {
|
| 543 |
+
padding: var(--space-4) var(--space-5);
|
| 544 |
+
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-divider);
|
| 545 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 546 |
+
text-align: center;
|
| 547 |
+
vertical-align: middle;
|
| 548 |
+
}
|
| 549 |
+
.comparison-table td:first-child { text-align: left; color: var(--color-text); font-weight: 500; }
|
| 550 |
+
.comparison-table tr:last-child td { border-bottom: none; }
|
| 551 |
+
.comparison-table .col-szl { background: rgba(255,107,53,0.04); }
|
| 552 |
+
.comparison-table th.col-szl { color: var(--color-orange); border-bottom-color: var(--color-orange); }
|
| 553 |
+
.check { color: var(--color-success); font-weight: 700; }
|
| 554 |
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|
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|
| 558 |
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|
| 559 |
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|
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}
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|
| 588 |
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|
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}
|
| 590 |
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|
| 591 |
+
/* ─── Citations ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 592 |
+
.citations-list {
|
| 593 |
+
list-style: none;
|
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+
display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: var(--space-3);
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|
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|
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|
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|
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color: var(--color-orange);
|
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flex-shrink: 0;
|
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|
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|
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|
| 617 |
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/* ─── Footer ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 618 |
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display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap;
|
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|
| 629 |
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font-weight: 700;
|
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+
color: var(--color-text);
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| 637 |
+
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|
| 638 |
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|
| 639 |
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|
| 640 |
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|
| 642 |
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|
| 644 |
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|
| 645 |
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| 647 |
+
}
|
| 648 |
+
.footer__links a {
|
| 649 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 650 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 651 |
+
}
|
| 652 |
+
.footer__links a:hover { color: var(--color-orange); }
|
| 653 |
+
.footer__doctrine {
|
| 654 |
+
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|
| 655 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 656 |
+
color: var(--color-text-faint);
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| 657 |
+
padding: var(--space-2) var(--space-4);
|
| 658 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-divider);
|
| 659 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-sm);
|
| 660 |
+
background: var(--color-bg);
|
| 661 |
+
}
|
| 662 |
+
|
| 663 |
+
/* ─── Code block ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 664 |
+
.code-block {
|
| 665 |
+
background: var(--color-bg);
|
| 666 |
+
border: 1px solid var(--color-border);
|
| 667 |
+
border-radius: var(--radius-lg);
|
| 668 |
+
padding: var(--space-6);
|
| 669 |
+
overflow-x: auto;
|
| 670 |
+
}
|
| 671 |
+
.code-block pre {
|
| 672 |
+
font-family: var(--font-display);
|
| 673 |
+
font-size: var(--text-xs);
|
| 674 |
+
line-height: 1.8;
|
| 675 |
+
color: var(--color-text-muted);
|
| 676 |
+
white-space: pre;
|
| 677 |
+
}
|
| 678 |
+
.code-block .kw { color: var(--color-blue-accent); }
|
| 679 |
+
.code-block .fn { color: #a78bfa; }
|
| 680 |
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.code-block .num { color: var(--color-warning); }
|
| 681 |
+
.code-block .str { color: var(--color-success); }
|
| 682 |
+
.code-block .cm { color: var(--color-text-faint); }
|
| 683 |
+
.code-block .or { color: var(--color-orange); }
|
| 684 |
+
|
| 685 |
+
/* ─── Responsive ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
|
| 686 |
+
@media (max-width: 768px) {
|
| 687 |
+
.hero__inner { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
|
| 688 |
+
.hero__image-frame { order: -1; }
|
| 689 |
+
.hero__title { font-size: var(--text-2xl); }
|
| 690 |
+
.nav__links { display: none; }
|
| 691 |
+
.putnam-layout { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
|
| 692 |
+
}
|
| 693 |
+
</style>
|
| 694 |
</head>
|
| 695 |
<body>
|
| 696 |
+
|
| 697 |
+
<!-- ─── Navigation ─────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 698 |
+
<nav class="nav" aria-label="Site navigation">
|
| 699 |
+
<div class="nav__inner">
|
| 700 |
+
<a class="nav__logo" href="#top">
|
| 701 |
+
<svg aria-label="SZL Holdings logo" width="28" height="28" viewBox="0 0 28 28" fill="none">
|
| 702 |
+
<rect width="28" height="28" rx="6" fill="#ff6b35"/>
|
| 703 |
+
<path d="M7 10h6l-6 8h6" stroke="#0a0f1f" stroke-width="2.2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"/>
|
| 704 |
+
<path d="M15 10h6" stroke="#0a0f1f" stroke-width="2.2" stroke-linecap="round"/>
|
| 705 |
+
<path d="M18 10v8" stroke="#0a0f1f" stroke-width="2.2" stroke-linecap="round"/>
|
| 706 |
+
<path d="M15 18h6" stroke="#0a0f1f" stroke-width="2.2" stroke-linecap="round"/>
|
| 707 |
+
</svg>
|
| 708 |
+
AGI FORECAST
|
| 709 |
+
</a>
|
| 710 |
+
<ul class="nav__links" role="list">
|
| 711 |
+
<li><a href="#what">What it is</a></li>
|
| 712 |
+
<li><a href="#gates">Safety Gates</a></li>
|
| 713 |
+
<li><a href="#putnam">Putnam</a></li>
|
| 714 |
+
<li><a href="#viewer">Live Viewer</a></li>
|
| 715 |
+
<li><a href="#comparison">Comparison</a></li>
|
| 716 |
+
<li><a href="#not">What it's NOT</a></li>
|
| 717 |
+
</ul>
|
| 718 |
+
</div>
|
| 719 |
+
</nav>
|
| 720 |
+
|
| 721 |
+
<!-- ─── Hero ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 722 |
+
<section class="hero" id="top">
|
| 723 |
<div class="container">
|
| 724 |
+
<div class="hero__inner">
|
| 725 |
+
<div class="hero__content">
|
| 726 |
+
<div class="hero__badge">
|
| 727 |
+
<span></span>Doctrine V6 · Apache 2.0
|
| 728 |
+
</div>
|
| 729 |
+
<h1 class="hero__title">
|
| 730 |
+
AGI<br/><span class="accent">Forecast</span><br/>Deep Dive
|
| 731 |
+
</h1>
|
| 732 |
+
<p class="hero__tagline">
|
| 733 |
+
Forecasting + safety gates for AI governance trajectories.
|
| 734 |
+
PAC-Bayes-bounded Λ-axis scenario library, four hardcoded FG-S1→S4
|
| 735 |
+
governance gates, and an honest Putnam 2025 benchmark snapshot.
|
| 736 |
+
</p>
|
| 737 |
+
<div class="hero__ctas">
|
| 738 |
+
<a class="btn btn--primary" href="https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
|
| 739 |
+
▶ Live Viewer
|
| 740 |
+
</a>
|
| 741 |
+
<a class="btn btn--outline" href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
|
| 742 |
+
⌘ Source Repo
|
| 743 |
+
</a>
|
| 744 |
+
<a class="btn btn--outline" href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
|
| 745 |
+
⊕ Zenodo DOI
|
| 746 |
+
</a>
|
| 747 |
+
</div>
|
| 748 |
</div>
|
| 749 |
+
<div class="hero__image-frame">
|
| 750 |
+
<img
|
| 751 |
+
src="agi-forecast.png"
|
| 752 |
+
alt="AGI Forecast — SZL Holdings social preview showing forecast radar and safety gate indicators"
|
| 753 |
+
width="600" height="315"
|
| 754 |
+
/>
|
| 755 |
+
<div class="hero__image-overlay"></div>
|
| 756 |
</div>
|
| 757 |
+
</div>
|
| 758 |
</div>
|
| 759 |
+
</section>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 760 |
|
| 761 |
+
<!-- ─── What it is ─────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 762 |
+
<section id="what">
|
| 763 |
<div class="container">
|
| 764 |
+
<div class="container--narrow" style="margin-inline: 0; padding: 0;">
|
| 765 |
+
<div class="section-label">About</div>
|
| 766 |
+
<h2 class="section-heading">What is agi-forecast?</h2>
|
| 767 |
+
<p class="section-body">
|
| 768 |
+
<code style="font-family: var(--font-display); font-size: 0.9em; color: var(--color-orange);">szl-holdings/agi-forecast</code>
|
| 769 |
+
is a TypeScript runtime library providing statistical forecasting models and a
|
| 770 |
+
scenario library for AI governance trajectories, grounded in the Lutar Invariant
|
| 771 |
+
Λ-axis scoring framework established in
|
| 772 |
+
<a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean" target="_blank" rel="noopener">szl-holdings/lutar-lean</a>.
|
| 773 |
+
It is not a prediction market. It is not investment advice. It is infrastructure
|
| 774 |
+
for governance-aware AI trajectory modeling.
|
| 775 |
+
</p>
|
| 776 |
+
</div>
|
| 777 |
+
|
| 778 |
+
<div class="what-grid">
|
| 779 |
+
<div class="what-card">
|
| 780 |
+
<div class="what-card__icon">
|
| 781 |
+
<svg width="22" height="22" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2">
|
| 782 |
+
<path d="M22 12h-4l-3 9L9 3l-3 9H2"/>
|
| 783 |
+
</svg>
|
| 784 |
+
</div>
|
| 785 |
+
<div class="what-card__title">Scenario Library</div>
|
| 786 |
+
<p class="what-card__body">
|
| 787 |
+
Receipt-attested governance trajectories stored as versioned JSON:
|
| 788 |
+
<code style="font-family:var(--font-display); font-size:0.85em; color:var(--color-orange)">baseline-v6</code>,
|
| 789 |
+
<code style="font-family:var(--font-display); font-size:0.85em; color:var(--color-orange)">rapid-expansion</code>,
|
| 790 |
+
<code style="font-family:var(--font-display); font-size:0.85em; color:var(--color-orange)">conservative-gate</code>.
|
| 791 |
+
Each scenario is a PAC-Bayes-certified probability path over the Λ-axis space,
|
| 792 |
+
validated against Doctrine V6 schema on CI.
|
| 793 |
+
</p>
|
| 794 |
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 795 |
|
| 796 |
+
<div class="what-card">
|
| 797 |
+
<div class="what-card__icon">
|
| 798 |
+
<svg width="22" height="22" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2">
|
| 799 |
+
<rect x="3" y="3" width="18" height="18" rx="2"/><path d="M9 9h6M9 12h6M9 15h4"/>
|
| 800 |
+
</svg>
|
| 801 |
+
</div>
|
| 802 |
+
<div class="what-card__title">FG-S1 → FG-S4 Governance Gates</div>
|
| 803 |
+
<p class="what-card__body">
|
| 804 |
+
Four hardcoded safety gates backed by Zod-validated TypeScript functions.
|
| 805 |
+
Each gate evaluates a base FG-gauge reading against a precise threshold.
|
| 806 |
+
FG-S4 is the composite kill switch that requires all three sub-gates to pass.
|
| 807 |
+
</p>
|
| 808 |
+
</div>
|
| 809 |
|
| 810 |
+
<div class="what-card">
|
| 811 |
+
<div class="what-card__icon">
|
| 812 |
+
<svg width="22" height="22" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2">
|
| 813 |
+
<circle cx="12" cy="12" r="3"/><path d="M12 1v4M12 19v4M4.22 4.22l2.83 2.83M16.95 16.95l2.83 2.83M1 12h4M19 12h4M4.22 19.78l2.83-2.83M16.95 7.05l2.83-2.83"/>
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|
| 814 |
</svg>
|
| 815 |
+
</div>
|
| 816 |
+
<div class="what-card__title">Benchmark Snapshots</div>
|
| 817 |
+
<p class="what-card__body">
|
| 818 |
+
Timestamped, receipt-chained evaluation snapshots stored in
|
| 819 |
+
<code style="font-family:var(--font-display); font-size:0.85em; color:var(--color-orange)">runtime/putnam-2025/</code>.
|
| 820 |
+
Each snapshot records per-problem verdicts, model roster, and a SHA-256
|
| 821 |
+
receipt chain head for tamper-evidence.
|
| 822 |
+
</p>
|
| 823 |
</div>
|
| 824 |
|
| 825 |
+
<div class="what-card">
|
| 826 |
+
<div class="what-card__icon">
|
| 827 |
+
<svg width="22" height="22" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2">
|
| 828 |
+
<path d="M12 2L2 7l10 5 10-5-10-5z"/><path d="M2 17l10 5 10-5M2 12l10 5 10-5"/>
|
| 829 |
+
</svg>
|
| 830 |
+
</div>
|
| 831 |
+
<div class="what-card__title">PAC-Bayes + Brier Scoring</div>
|
| 832 |
+
<p class="what-card__body">
|
| 833 |
+
Forecast uncertainty is bounded via PAC-Bayes confidence intervals.
|
| 834 |
+
Each gauge output feeds the Brier scoring pipeline in
|
| 835 |
+
<code style="font-family:var(--font-display); font-size:0.85em; color:var(--color-orange)">src/brier.ts</code>
|
| 836 |
+
to produce calibration-aware forecast receipts.
|
| 837 |
+
</p>
|
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|
| 838 |
</div>
|
|
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|
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|
| 839 |
|
| 840 |
+
<div class="what-card">
|
| 841 |
+
<div class="what-card__icon">
|
| 842 |
+
<svg width="22" height="22" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2">
|
| 843 |
+
<path d="M14 2H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V8z"/><polyline points="14 2 14 8 20 8"/>
|
| 844 |
+
</svg>
|
| 845 |
+
</div>
|
| 846 |
+
<div class="what-card__title">DSSE-Wrapped Deliveries</div>
|
| 847 |
+
<p class="what-card__body">
|
| 848 |
+
Forecast outputs are wrapped in SLSA-compliant DSSE envelopes.
|
| 849 |
+
The receipt chain root and head are recorded in every snapshot JSON,
|
| 850 |
+
enabling downstream provenance verification without trusting the tool author.
|
| 851 |
+
</p>
|
| 852 |
+
</div>
|
| 853 |
+
|
| 854 |
+
<div class="what-card">
|
| 855 |
+
<div class="what-card__icon">
|
| 856 |
+
<svg width="22" height="22" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2">
|
| 857 |
+
<polyline points="20 6 9 17 4 12"/>
|
| 858 |
+
</svg>
|
| 859 |
+
</div>
|
| 860 |
+
<div class="what-card__title">Open Source · Apache 2.0</div>
|
| 861 |
+
<p class="what-card__body">
|
| 862 |
+
All gate definitions, scenarios, and benchmark harness code are public at
|
| 863 |
+
<a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">szl-holdings/agi-forecast</a>.
|
| 864 |
+
DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10.5281/zenodo.20434276</a>.
|
| 865 |
+
ORCID: <a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0110-4173" target="_blank" rel="noopener">0009-0001-0110-4173</a>.
|
| 866 |
+
</p>
|
| 867 |
+
</div>
|
| 868 |
+
</div>
|
| 869 |
+
</div>
|
| 870 |
+
</section>
|
| 871 |
|
| 872 |
+
<!-- ─── Safety Gates ───────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 873 |
+
<section id="gates">
|
| 874 |
<div class="container">
|
| 875 |
+
<div class="section-label">Governance Infrastructure</div>
|
| 876 |
+
<h2 class="section-heading">The 4 Forecast Safety Gates</h2>
|
| 877 |
+
<p class="section-body" style="max-width: 68ch;">
|
| 878 |
+
Each gate is a pure TypeScript function in
|
| 879 |
+
<a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast/blob/main/runtime/src/derived.ts" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><code style="font-family:var(--font-display); font-size:0.9em">runtime/src/derived.ts</code></a>.
|
| 880 |
+
Source was grepped directly from the repository — no paraphrase.
|
| 881 |
+
</p>
|
| 882 |
+
|
| 883 |
+
<div class="gates-grid">
|
| 884 |
+
|
| 885 |
+
<!-- FG-S1 -->
|
| 886 |
+
<div class="gate-card gate-card--s1">
|
| 887 |
+
<div class="gate-id gate-id--s1">FG-S1</div>
|
| 888 |
+
<div class="gate-name">Early Warning — Oversight</div>
|
| 889 |
+
<p class="gate-desc">
|
| 890 |
+
Triggers when human oversight coverage falls below 80% of model decisions audited.
|
| 891 |
+
This is the first line of detection: insufficient oversight means you cannot see
|
| 892 |
+
what the model is doing, making all other safety measures less reliable.
|
| 893 |
+
</p>
|
| 894 |
+
<div class="code-block" style="margin-top: auto;">
|
| 895 |
+
<pre><span class="cm">// FG-S1: Oversight gate — must have ≥ 80% oversight coverage</span>
|
| 896 |
+
<span class="kw">export function</span> <span class="fn">safetyGateS1</span>(fg06: <span class="or">number</span>): SafetyGateResult {
|
| 897 |
+
<span class="kw">const</span> pass = fg06 >= <span class="num">0.80</span>;
|
| 898 |
+
<span class="kw">return</span> { gateId: <span class="str">"FG-S1"</span>, pass, score: fg06,
|
| 899 |
+
reason: pass ? <span class="str">"Oversight ≥ 80%"</span>
|
| 900 |
+
: <span class="str">`Oversight ${(fg06*100).toFixed(1)}% < 80%`</span> };
|
| 901 |
+
}</pre>
|
| 902 |
+
</div>
|
| 903 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold">
|
| 904 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold__dot" style="background: var(--color-blue-accent)"></div>
|
| 905 |
+
<span style="font-family:var(--font-display); color:var(--color-blue-accent)">FG-06 ≥ 0.80</span>
|
| 906 |
+
<span style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">— Oversight Coverage gauge</span>
|
| 907 |
+
</div>
|
| 908 |
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 909 |
|
| 910 |
+
<!-- FG-S2 -->
|
| 911 |
+
<div class="gate-card gate-card--s2">
|
| 912 |
+
<div class="gate-id gate-id--s2">FG-S2</div>
|
| 913 |
+
<div class="gate-name">Containment — Deception Rate</div>
|
| 914 |
+
<p class="gate-desc">
|
| 915 |
+
Triggers if the detected fraction of deceptive outputs reaches or exceeds 5%.
|
| 916 |
+
This is a containment gate: deceptive outputs at scale undermine the reliability
|
| 917 |
+
of every downstream governance signal, including self-reported alignment.
|
| 918 |
+
</p>
|
| 919 |
+
<div class="code-block">
|
| 920 |
+
<pre><span class="cm">// FG-S2: Deception gate — deception rate must be < 5%</span>
|
| 921 |
+
<span class="kw">export function</span> <span class="fn">safetyGateS2</span>(fg09: <span class="or">number</span>): SafetyGateResult {
|
| 922 |
+
<span class="kw">const</span> pass = fg09 < <span class="num">0.05</span>;
|
| 923 |
+
<span class="kw">return</span> { gateId: <span class="str">"FG-S2"</span>, pass, score: fg09,
|
| 924 |
+
reason: pass ? <span class="str">"Deception < 5%"</span>
|
| 925 |
+
: <span class="str">`Deception ${(fg09*100).toFixed(2)}% ≥ 5%`</span> };
|
| 926 |
+
}</pre>
|
| 927 |
+
</div>
|
| 928 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold">
|
| 929 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold__dot" style="background: var(--color-warning)"></div>
|
| 930 |
+
<span style="font-family:var(--font-display); color:var(--color-warning)">FG-09 < 0.05</span>
|
| 931 |
+
<span style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">— Deception Rate gauge</span>
|
| 932 |
+
</div>
|
| 933 |
+
</div>
|
| 934 |
|
| 935 |
+
<!-- FG-S3 -->
|
| 936 |
+
<div class="gate-card gate-card--s3">
|
| 937 |
+
<div class="gate-id gate-id--s3">FG-S3</div>
|
| 938 |
+
<div class="gate-name">Defense-in-Depth — Goal Stability</div>
|
| 939 |
+
<p class="gate-desc">
|
| 940 |
+
Triggers when the cosine similarity of goal embeddings over time drops below 0.90.
|
| 941 |
+
Goal drift at this scale indicates the model's effective objectives have shifted
|
| 942 |
+
enough to invalidate prior alignment confidence assessments.
|
| 943 |
+
</p>
|
| 944 |
+
<div class="code-block">
|
| 945 |
+
<pre><span class="cm">// FG-S3: Goal stability gate — goal similarity ≥ 0.90</span>
|
| 946 |
+
<span class="kw">export function</span> <span class="fn">safetyGateS3</span>(fg07: <span class="or">number</span>): SafetyGateResult {
|
| 947 |
+
<span class="kw">const</span> pass = fg07 >= <span class="num">0.90</span>;
|
| 948 |
+
<span class="kw">return</span> { gateId: <span class="str">"FG-S3"</span>, pass, score: fg07,
|
| 949 |
+
reason: pass ? <span class="str">"Goal stability ≥ 0.90"</span>
|
| 950 |
+
: <span class="str">`Goal stability ${fg07.toFixed(3)} < 0.90`</span> };
|
| 951 |
+
}</pre>
|
| 952 |
+
</div>
|
| 953 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold">
|
| 954 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold__dot" style="background: var(--color-success)"></div>
|
| 955 |
+
<span style="font-family:var(--font-display); color:var(--color-success)">FG-07 ≥ 0.90</span>
|
| 956 |
+
<span style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">— Goal Stability gauge</span>
|
| 957 |
+
</div>
|
| 958 |
+
</div>
|
| 959 |
|
| 960 |
+
<!-- FG-S4 -->
|
| 961 |
+
<div class="gate-card gate-card--s4">
|
| 962 |
+
<div class="gate-id gate-id--s4">FG-S4</div>
|
| 963 |
+
<div class="gate-name">Last-Resort Kill — Composite</div>
|
| 964 |
+
<p class="gate-desc">
|
| 965 |
+
The composite gate. Passes only when FG-S1, FG-S2, and FG-S3 all pass.
|
| 966 |
+
Failure of any single sub-gate propagates immediately: reasons are concatenated
|
| 967 |
+
and the composite score is set accordingly. This is the final safety interlock.
|
| 968 |
+
</p>
|
| 969 |
+
<div class="code-block">
|
| 970 |
+
<pre><span class="cm">// FG-S4: Composite — all three gates must pass</span>
|
| 971 |
+
<span class="kw">export function</span> <span class="fn">safetyGateS4</span>(
|
| 972 |
+
s1: SafetyGateResult, s2: SafetyGateResult, s3: SafetyGateResult
|
| 973 |
+
): SafetyGateResult {
|
| 974 |
+
<span class="kw">const</span> pass = s1.pass && s2.pass && s3.pass;
|
| 975 |
+
<span class="kw">const</span> score = (s1.score + (<span class="num">1</span> - s2.score) + s3.score) / <span class="num">3</span>;
|
| 976 |
+
<span class="kw">const</span> reason = pass ? <span class="str">"All safety gates pass"</span>
|
| 977 |
+
: [s1,s2,s3].filter(g => !g.pass).map(g => g.reason).join(<span class="str">"; "</span>);
|
| 978 |
+
<span class="kw">return</span> { gateId: <span class="str">"FG-S4"</span>, pass, score: <span class="fn">clamp</span>(score), reason };
|
| 979 |
+
}</pre>
|
| 980 |
+
</div>
|
| 981 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold">
|
| 982 |
+
<div class="gate-threshold__dot" style="background: var(--color-error)"></div>
|
| 983 |
+
<span style="font-family:var(--font-display); color:var(--color-error)">S1 ∧ S2 ∧ S3</span>
|
| 984 |
+
<span style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">— all sub-gates must pass</span>
|
| 985 |
+
</div>
|
| 986 |
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 987 |
|
| 988 |
+
</div>
|
| 989 |
+
</div>
|
| 990 |
+
</section>
|
| 991 |
|
| 992 |
+
<!-- ─── Putnam Benchmark ────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 993 |
+
<section id="putnam">
|
| 994 |
<div class="container">
|
| 995 |
+
<div class="section-label">Benchmark Snapshot · 2026-05-27</div>
|
| 996 |
+
<h2 class="section-heading">Putnam 2025 — Honest Results</h2>
|
| 997 |
+
<p class="section-body" style="max-width: 64ch;">
|
| 998 |
+
On 27 May 2026, the agi-forecast harness attempted all 12 problems from the
|
| 999 |
+
2025 Putnam Competition (86th edition) using claude-sonnet-4-6 as candidate and
|
| 1000 |
+
claude-opus-4-7 as judge. Results are receipt-attested; no score inflation.
|
| 1001 |
+
</p>
|
| 1002 |
+
|
| 1003 |
+
<div class="putnam-layout">
|
| 1004 |
+
<div>
|
| 1005 |
+
<div class="putnam-score-block">
|
| 1006 |
+
<div class="putnam-big-number">8.3%</div>
|
| 1007 |
+
<div class="putnam-fraction">1 correct out of 12 problems</div>
|
| 1008 |
+
<ul class="putnam-meta">
|
| 1009 |
+
<li><span>Issued at</span><span>2026-05-27T20:26:28Z</span></li>
|
| 1010 |
+
<li><span>Correct</span><span>1</span></li>
|
| 1011 |
+
<li><span>Incorrect</span><span>11</span></li>
|
| 1012 |
+
<li><span>Partial</span><span>0</span></li>
|
| 1013 |
+
<li><span>Abstained</span><span>0</span></li>
|
| 1014 |
+
<li><span>Score₀₁</span><span>0.0833</span></li>
|
| 1015 |
+
<li><span>Wall time</span><span>2 493 s (41 min)</span></li>
|
| 1016 |
+
<li><span>Candidate model</span><span>claude-sonnet-4-6</span></li>
|
| 1017 |
+
<li><span>Judge model</span><span>claude-opus-4-7</span></li>
|
| 1018 |
+
</ul>
|
| 1019 |
+
<div class="putnam-honest-box">
|
| 1020 |
+
<strong>Not a Putnam champion.</strong> This result is lower than the
|
| 1021 |
+
median human participant score in most Putnam years. We record it because
|
| 1022 |
+
honest calibration of what the harness can and cannot do matters more than
|
| 1023 |
+
headline numbers. The receipt chain is public and tamper-evident.
|
| 1024 |
</div>
|
| 1025 |
+
</div>
|
| 1026 |
+
</div>
|
| 1027 |
+
|
| 1028 |
+
<div>
|
| 1029 |
+
<div class="section-label" style="margin-bottom: var(--space-4)">Context — Other Public Putnam-2025 Results</div>
|
| 1030 |
+
<div class="leaderboard-table">
|
| 1031 |
+
<table>
|
| 1032 |
+
<thead>
|
| 1033 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1034 |
+
<th>System</th>
|
| 1035 |
+
<th>Score / 120 pts</th>
|
| 1036 |
+
<th>% correct</th>
|
| 1037 |
+
<th>Notes</th>
|
| 1038 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1039 |
+
</thead>
|
| 1040 |
+
<tbody>
|
| 1041 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1042 |
+
<td>DeepSeek-v3.2-Speciale (Agent)</td>
|
| 1043 |
+
<td class="score-high">103 / 120</td>
|
| 1044 |
+
<td class="score-high">85.8%</td>
|
| 1045 |
+
<td style="font-size: var(--text-xs); color: var(--color-text-faint)">Top 3 of 4329 human participants <a href="https://matharena.ai/putnam/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">[MathArena]</a></td>
|
| 1046 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1047 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1048 |
+
<td>Gemini-3-Pro</td>
|
| 1049 |
+
<td class="score-high">91 / 120</td>
|
| 1050 |
+
<td class="score-high">75.8%</td>
|
| 1051 |
+
<td style="font-size: var(--text-xs); color: var(--color-text-faint)">Only system to solve A5 <a href="https://matharena.ai/putnam/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">[MathArena]</a></td>
|
| 1052 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1053 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1054 |
+
<td>AxiomMath (Lean agent, formal)</td>
|
| 1055 |
+
<td class="score-high">9 / 12 solved</td>
|
| 1056 |
+
<td class="score-high">75%</td>
|
| 1057 |
+
<td style="font-size: var(--text-xs); color: var(--color-text-faint)">Lean 4 formal proofs <a href="https://matharena.ai/putnam/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">[MathArena]</a></td>
|
| 1058 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1059 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1060 |
+
<td>o1-Pro (2024 estimate)</td>
|
| 1061 |
+
<td class="score-high">~84–90 / 120</td>
|
| 1062 |
+
<td class="score-high">~70–75%</td>
|
| 1063 |
+
<td style="font-size: var(--text-xs); color: var(--color-text-faint)">Non-expert assessment <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkTpMmkVAok" target="_blank" rel="noopener">[YouTube]</a></td>
|
| 1064 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1065 |
+
<tr class="highlight">
|
| 1066 |
+
<td><strong>agi-forecast harness (this snapshot)</strong></td>
|
| 1067 |
+
<td class="score-low">1 / 12</td>
|
| 1068 |
+
<td class="score-low">8.3%</td>
|
| 1069 |
+
<td style="font-size: var(--text-xs); color: var(--color-text-faint)">Receipt-attested · 2026-05-27</td>
|
| 1070 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1071 |
+
</tbody>
|
| 1072 |
+
</table>
|
| 1073 |
+
</div>
|
| 1074 |
+
<p class="section-body" style="font-size: var(--text-xs); margin-top: var(--space-4); color: var(--color-text-faint);">
|
| 1075 |
+
The top systems listed above scored dramatically higher. The agi-forecast harness
|
| 1076 |
+
is not a math reasoning system — it is a governance gate infrastructure.
|
| 1077 |
+
Putnam is included as a calibration probe, not a performance claim.
|
| 1078 |
+
Receipt chain head:
|
| 1079 |
+
<code style="font-family:var(--font-display); word-break: break-all; color: var(--color-text-faint)">245c296e…ee24</code>
|
| 1080 |
+
</p>
|
| 1081 |
</div>
|
| 1082 |
+
</div>
|
| 1083 |
</div>
|
| 1084 |
+
</section>
|
| 1085 |
|
| 1086 |
+
<!-- ─── Live Viewer ─────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 1087 |
+
<section id="viewer">
|
| 1088 |
+
<div class="container">
|
| 1089 |
+
<div class="section-label">Interactive</div>
|
| 1090 |
+
<h2 class="section-heading">Live Forecast Viewer</h2>
|
| 1091 |
+
<p class="section-body" style="margin-bottom: var(--space-8);">
|
| 1092 |
+
The embedded Space below runs the full Gradio app — scenario explorer,
|
| 1093 |
+
gate-coloured Plotly radar, confidence intervals, and gauge timeline.
|
| 1094 |
+
Source: <a href="https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer</a>.
|
| 1095 |
+
</p>
|
| 1096 |
+
<div class="viewer-frame">
|
| 1097 |
+
<iframe
|
| 1098 |
+
src="https://szlholdings-agi-forecast-viewer.hf.space"
|
| 1099 |
+
title="AGI Forecast Viewer — live Gradio app with scenario explorer, radar chart, and safety gate indicators"
|
| 1100 |
+
loading="lazy"
|
| 1101 |
+
allow="cross-origin-isolated"
|
| 1102 |
+
></iframe>
|
| 1103 |
+
</div>
|
| 1104 |
+
</div>
|
| 1105 |
+
</section>
|
| 1106 |
|
| 1107 |
+
<!-- ─── Comparison Table ────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 1108 |
+
<section id="comparison">
|
| 1109 |
<div class="container">
|
| 1110 |
+
<div class="section-label">Landscape</div>
|
| 1111 |
+
<h2 class="section-heading">agi-forecast vs AI Forecasting Platforms</h2>
|
| 1112 |
+
<p class="section-body" style="max-width: 64ch;">
|
| 1113 |
+
How does agi-forecast differ from existing platforms?
|
| 1114 |
+
This table compares along the dimensions that matter for governance-aware forecasting.
|
| 1115 |
+
</p>
|
| 1116 |
+
<div class="comparison-wrap">
|
| 1117 |
+
<table class="comparison-table">
|
| 1118 |
+
<thead>
|
| 1119 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1120 |
+
<th>Feature / Dimension</th>
|
| 1121 |
+
<th><a href="https://www.metaculus.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Metaculus</a></th>
|
| 1122 |
+
<th><a href="https://aiimpacts.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AI Impacts (FOAA)</a></th>
|
| 1123 |
+
<th><a href="https://forecastingresearch.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FRI</a></th>
|
| 1124 |
+
<th class="col-szl">agi-forecast</th>
|
| 1125 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1126 |
+
</thead>
|
| 1127 |
+
<tbody>
|
| 1128 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1129 |
+
<td>Live benchmark integration</td>
|
| 1130 |
+
<td class="partial">Partial<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Some AI tracking questions</small></td>
|
| 1131 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1132 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1133 |
+
<td class="check col-szl">✓<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Putnam snapshots, receipt-chained</small></td>
|
| 1134 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1135 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1136 |
+
<td>Lean-verified gate definitions</td>
|
| 1137 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1138 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1139 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1140 |
+
<td class="check col-szl">✓<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Λ-uniqueness proven in Lean 4</small></td>
|
| 1141 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1142 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1143 |
+
<td>DSSE-wrapped forecast deliveries</td>
|
| 1144 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1145 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1146 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1147 |
+
<td class="check col-szl">✓<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">SLSA-compliant receipt envelopes</small></td>
|
| 1148 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1149 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1150 |
+
<td>Benchmark tied to safety gates</td>
|
| 1151 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1152 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1153 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1154 |
+
<td class="check col-szl">✓<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Putnam score feeds FG gauge pipeline</small></td>
|
| 1155 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1156 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1157 |
+
<td>Open source forecasts</td>
|
| 1158 |
+
<td class="check">✓<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Platform open, questions public</small></td>
|
| 1159 |
+
<td class="partial">Partial<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Reports public, method varies</small></td>
|
| 1160 |
+
<td class="cross">✗<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Research published, no public repo</small></td>
|
| 1161 |
+
<td class="check col-szl">✓<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Apache 2.0, all source public</small></td>
|
| 1162 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1163 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1164 |
+
<td>Crowdsourced / prediction market</td>
|
| 1165 |
+
<td class="check">✓</td>
|
| 1166 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1167 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1168 |
+
<td class="cross col-szl">✗<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">Not a prediction market</small></td>
|
| 1169 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1170 |
+
<tr>
|
| 1171 |
+
<td>Formal governance gate framework</td>
|
| 1172 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1173 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1174 |
+
<td class="cross">✗</td>
|
| 1175 |
+
<td class="check col-szl">✓<br/><small style="color:var(--color-text-faint)">FG-S1→S4 in TypeScript + Lean</small></td>
|
| 1176 |
+
</tr>
|
| 1177 |
+
</tbody>
|
| 1178 |
+
</table>
|
| 1179 |
+
</div>
|
| 1180 |
+
<p class="section-body" style="font-size: var(--text-xs); margin-top: var(--space-6); color: var(--color-text-faint);">
|
| 1181 |
+
Sources: <a href="https://www.metaculus.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">metaculus.com</a> ·
|
| 1182 |
+
<a href="https://aiimpacts.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">aiimpacts.org</a> ·
|
| 1183 |
+
<a href="https://forecastingresearch.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecastingresearch.org</a> ·
|
| 1184 |
+
<a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">szl-holdings/agi-forecast</a>.
|
| 1185 |
+
FOAA = Forecasting on AI Advances, AI Impacts project.
|
| 1186 |
+
</p>
|
| 1187 |
</div>
|
| 1188 |
+
</section>
|
| 1189 |
|
| 1190 |
+
<!-- ─── What this is NOT ───────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 1191 |
+
<section id="not">
|
| 1192 |
<div class="container">
|
| 1193 |
+
<div class="section-label">Doctrine V6 — Honesty Clause</div>
|
| 1194 |
+
<h2 class="section-heading">What agi-forecast is NOT</h2>
|
| 1195 |
+
<p class="section-body" style="max-width: 64ch; margin-bottom: var(--space-8);">
|
| 1196 |
+
Doctrine V6 requires explicit disclosure of scope boundaries.
|
| 1197 |
+
These are not disclaimers added reluctantly — they are part of the system design.
|
| 1198 |
+
</p>
|
| 1199 |
+
|
| 1200 |
+
<div class="not-grid">
|
| 1201 |
+
<div class="not-card">
|
| 1202 |
+
<div class="not-card__head">
|
| 1203 |
+
<div class="not-card__icon">✗</div>
|
| 1204 |
+
<div class="not-card__title">Not an Oracle</div>
|
| 1205 |
+
</div>
|
| 1206 |
+
<p class="not-card__body">
|
| 1207 |
+
agi-forecast does not predict the future of AI. It models governance
|
| 1208 |
+
trajectories under explicit probabilistic assumptions. Every output is a
|
| 1209 |
+
probability distribution, not a claim about what will happen.
|
| 1210 |
+
</p>
|
| 1211 |
+
</div>
|
| 1212 |
+
|
| 1213 |
+
<div class="not-card">
|
| 1214 |
+
<div class="not-card__head">
|
| 1215 |
+
<div class="not-card__icon">✗</div>
|
| 1216 |
+
<div class="not-card__title">Not a Prediction Market</div>
|
| 1217 |
+
</div>
|
| 1218 |
+
<p class="not-card__body">
|
| 1219 |
+
There are no tokens, bets, liquidity pools, or crowd-sourced probability
|
| 1220 |
+
aggregation. agi-forecast is a deterministic governance-gate evaluation
|
| 1221 |
+
library, not a market mechanism.
|
| 1222 |
+
</p>
|
| 1223 |
+
</div>
|
| 1224 |
+
|
| 1225 |
+
<div class="not-card">
|
| 1226 |
+
<div class="not-card__head">
|
| 1227 |
+
<div class="not-card__icon">✗</div>
|
| 1228 |
+
<div class="not-card__title">Not Investment Advice</div>
|
| 1229 |
+
</div>
|
| 1230 |
+
<p class="not-card__body">
|
| 1231 |
+
Nothing in agi-forecast constitutes financial advice, securities recommendations,
|
| 1232 |
+
or any form of regulated investment guidance. Treat all outputs as research
|
| 1233 |
+
artifacts under Apache 2.0.
|
| 1234 |
+
</p>
|
| 1235 |
</div>
|
| 1236 |
+
|
| 1237 |
+
<div class="not-card">
|
| 1238 |
+
<div class="not-card__head">
|
| 1239 |
+
<div class="not-card__icon">✗</div>
|
| 1240 |
+
<div class="not-card__title">Not a Putnam Champion</div>
|
| 1241 |
+
</div>
|
| 1242 |
+
<p class="not-card__body">
|
| 1243 |
+
The 2026-05-27 snapshot scored 1 out of 12 problems (8.3%). This is far
|
| 1244 |
+
below the median human Putnam score and vastly below top AI systems (DeepSeek:
|
| 1245 |
+
103/120). We record this honestly rather than cherry-picking better-performing
|
| 1246 |
+
configurations.
|
| 1247 |
+
</p>
|
| 1248 |
+
</div>
|
| 1249 |
+
|
| 1250 |
+
<div class="not-card">
|
| 1251 |
+
<div class="not-card__head">
|
| 1252 |
+
<div class="not-card__icon">✗</div>
|
| 1253 |
+
<div class="not-card__title">Not a Safety Guarantee</div>
|
| 1254 |
+
</div>
|
| 1255 |
+
<p class="not-card__body">
|
| 1256 |
+
Passing all four FG-S gates does not mean an AI system is safe. The gates
|
| 1257 |
+
measure specific gauge thresholds on a simplified governance model. They are
|
| 1258 |
+
necessary but not sufficient conditions for safe deployment.
|
| 1259 |
+
</p>
|
| 1260 |
+
</div>
|
| 1261 |
+
|
| 1262 |
+
<div class="not-card">
|
| 1263 |
+
<div class="not-card__head">
|
| 1264 |
+
<div class="not-card__icon">✗</div>
|
| 1265 |
+
<div class="not-card__title">Not Peer-Reviewed</div>
|
| 1266 |
+
</div>
|
| 1267 |
+
<p class="not-card__body">
|
| 1268 |
+
The Ouroboros Thesis is published on Zenodo with a DOI but has not undergone
|
| 1269 |
+
formal journal peer review. The Lean proofs are machine-verified, but the
|
| 1270 |
+
governance model's premises reflect the authors' assumptions.
|
| 1271 |
+
</p>
|
| 1272 |
+
</div>
|
| 1273 |
+
</div>
|
| 1274 |
</div>
|
| 1275 |
+
</section>
|
| 1276 |
+
|
| 1277 |
+
<!-- ─── Citations ──────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 1278 |
+
<section id="citations">
|
| 1279 |
+
<div class="container--narrow">
|
| 1280 |
+
<div class="section-label">References</div>
|
| 1281 |
+
<h2 class="section-heading">Citations</h2>
|
| 1282 |
+
<ul class="citations-list" role="list">
|
| 1283 |
+
<li>
|
| 1284 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[1]</span>
|
| 1285 |
+
<span>Brier, G.W. (1950). "Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability."
|
| 1286 |
+
<em>Monthly Weather Review</em>, 78(1), 1–3.
|
| 1287 |
+
Formal specification: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score</a>.
|
| 1288 |
+
Implementation: <a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast/blob/main/runtime/src/brier.ts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">runtime/src/brier.ts</a>.
|
| 1289 |
+
</span>
|
| 1290 |
+
</li>
|
| 1291 |
+
<li>
|
| 1292 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[2]</span>
|
| 1293 |
+
<span>Lutar, S.P. (2026). <em>SZL Holdings v18.0 Master Thesis — Multi-track Substrate Expansion</em>.
|
| 1294 |
+
Zenodo. DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10.5281/zenodo.20434276</a>.
|
| 1295 |
+
ORCID: <a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0110-4173" target="_blank" rel="noopener">0009-0001-0110-4173</a>.
|
| 1296 |
+
</span>
|
| 1297 |
+
</li>
|
| 1298 |
+
<li>
|
| 1299 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[3]</span>
|
| 1300 |
+
<span>szl-holdings/lutar-lean — Lean 4 proofs of Λ uniqueness and bounds.
|
| 1301 |
+
DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434308" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10.5281/zenodo.20434308</a>.
|
| 1302 |
+
Source: <a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean" target="_blank" rel="noopener">github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean</a>.
|
| 1303 |
+
</span>
|
| 1304 |
+
</li>
|
| 1305 |
+
<li>
|
| 1306 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[4]</span>
|
| 1307 |
+
<span>Metaculus — AI forecasting platform.
|
| 1308 |
+
<a href="https://www.metaculus.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">metaculus.com</a>.
|
| 1309 |
+
FutureEval notebook (2026-02-18):
|
| 1310 |
+
<a href="https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/42225/futureeval-measures-the-forecasting-accuracy-of-ai/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">metaculus.com/notebooks/42225/</a>.
|
| 1311 |
+
</span>
|
| 1312 |
+
</li>
|
| 1313 |
+
<li>
|
| 1314 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[5]</span>
|
| 1315 |
+
<span>AI Impacts — Forecasting on AI Advances (FOAA).
|
| 1316 |
+
<a href="https://aiimpacts.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">aiimpacts.org</a>.
|
| 1317 |
+
</span>
|
| 1318 |
+
</li>
|
| 1319 |
+
<li>
|
| 1320 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[6]</span>
|
| 1321 |
+
<span>Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) — advancing the science of forecasting.
|
| 1322 |
+
<a href="https://forecastingresearch.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecastingresearch.org</a>.
|
| 1323 |
+
</span>
|
| 1324 |
+
</li>
|
| 1325 |
+
<li>
|
| 1326 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[7]</span>
|
| 1327 |
+
<span>MathArena (2026). "Putnam 2025 AI Evaluation Results."
|
| 1328 |
+
DeepSeek-v3.2-Speciale: 103/120; best agentic systems all within top 10 human participants.
|
| 1329 |
+
<a href="https://matharena.ai/putnam/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">matharena.ai/putnam/</a>.
|
| 1330 |
+
</span>
|
| 1331 |
+
</li>
|
| 1332 |
+
<li>
|
| 1333 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[8]</span>
|
| 1334 |
+
<span>McAllester, D.A. (2003). "PAC-Bayes Stochastic Model Selection."
|
| 1335 |
+
<em>Machine Learning</em>, 51(1), 5–21.
|
| 1336 |
+
DOI: <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1021840411064" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10.1023/A:1021840411064</a>.
|
| 1337 |
+
</span>
|
| 1338 |
+
</li>
|
| 1339 |
+
<li>
|
| 1340 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[9]</span>
|
| 1341 |
+
<span>Rafailov, R. et al. (2023). "Direct Preference Optimization."
|
| 1342 |
+
arXiv: <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2305.18290" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2305.18290</a>.
|
| 1343 |
+
(DPO stability — TH12, used in Λ-axis trajectory certification.)
|
| 1344 |
+
</span>
|
| 1345 |
+
</li>
|
| 1346 |
+
<li>
|
| 1347 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[10]</span>
|
| 1348 |
+
<span>Bekenstein, J.D. (1981). "Universal upper bound on the entropy-to-energy ratio for bounded systems."
|
| 1349 |
+
<em>Physical Review D</em>, 23, 287.
|
| 1350 |
+
DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.23.287" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10.1103/PhysRevD.23.287</a>.
|
| 1351 |
+
(Bekenstein bound — caps scenario entropy in the forecast pipeline.)
|
| 1352 |
+
</span>
|
| 1353 |
+
</li>
|
| 1354 |
+
<li>
|
| 1355 |
+
<span class="cite-num">[11]</span>
|
| 1356 |
+
<span>agi-forecast Putnam 2026-05-27 snapshot — receipt chain head:
|
| 1357 |
+
<code style="font-family:var(--font-display); word-break:break-all">245c296ec5480db089af47689f1cb47a12817101253a7a020379a00617b0ee24</code>.
|
| 1358 |
+
Source: <a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast/tree/main/runtime/putnam-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">runtime/putnam-2025/latest.json</a>.
|
| 1359 |
+
</span>
|
| 1360 |
+
</li>
|
| 1361 |
+
</ul>
|
| 1362 |
+
</div>
|
| 1363 |
+
</section>
|
| 1364 |
+
|
| 1365 |
+
<!-- ─── Footer ─────────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
|
| 1366 |
+
<footer class="footer">
|
| 1367 |
+
<div class="footer__inner">
|
| 1368 |
+
<div>
|
| 1369 |
+
<div class="footer__brand">SZL Holdings · agi-forecast</div>
|
| 1370 |
+
<p class="footer__copy">
|
| 1371 |
+
Copyright 2026 SZL Holdings. Apache License 2.0.<br/>
|
| 1372 |
+
ORCID: <a href="https://orcid.org/0009-0001-0110-4173" target="_blank" rel="noopener">0009-0001-0110-4173</a>
|
| 1373 |
+
· Thesis DOI: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10.5281/zenodo.20434276</a>
|
| 1374 |
+
</p>
|
| 1375 |
+
</div>
|
| 1376 |
+
<ul class="footer__links" role="list">
|
| 1377 |
+
<li><a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/agi-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GitHub Repository</a></li>
|
| 1378 |
+
<li><a href="https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-viewer" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Live Viewer Space</a></li>
|
| 1379 |
+
<li><a href="https://huggingface.co/spaces/SZLHOLDINGS/agi-forecast-platform" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Platform Space</a></li>
|
| 1380 |
+
<li><a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20434276" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zenodo DOI</a></li>
|
| 1381 |
+
<li><a href="https://github.com/szl-holdings/lutar-lean" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lutar-lean (Lean 4 proofs)</a></li>
|
| 1382 |
+
</ul>
|
| 1383 |
+
<div class="footer__doctrine">Doctrine V6 · Signed commits · No score inflation</div>
|
| 1384 |
+
</div>
|
| 1385 |
+
</footer>
|
| 1386 |
+
|
| 1387 |
</body>
|
| 1388 |
</html>
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/* agi-forecast-platform — style.css
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Palette: #0a0f1f bg, #ff6b35 accent, #4d7cfe secondary
|
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*/
|
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@media print { nav, .noise-overlay { display: none; } body { background: white; color: black; } }
|
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-
@media (max-width: 768px) { .hero-stats { grid-template-columns: repeat(2, 1fr); } .fact-grid, .action-grid, .not-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; } .substrate-grid { grid-template-columns: repeat(2, 1fr); } .nav-links { display: none; } }
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