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Expose four anchored success-conditioning claims

Browse files
logbook.json CHANGED
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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  {
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  "schema_version": 1,
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- "title": "Repro - Success-Conditioning as Policy Improvement: The Optimization Problem Solved by Imitating Success",
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  "emoji": "🎯",
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  "space_id": "SabaPivot/repro-success-conditioning",
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  "paper": {
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  "updated_at": "2026-07-16T06:29:41+00:00",
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  "root": {
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  "slug": "index",
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- "title": "Repro - Success-Conditioning as Policy Improvement: The Optimization Problem Solved by Imitating Success",
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  "file": "pages/index.md",
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  "children": [
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  {
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  "slug": "claim-1-chi-squared-trust-region-equivalence-prop-4-1",
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  "title": "Claim 1: Chi-squared trust-region equivalence (Prop 4.1)",
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  "title": "Conclusion",
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  "file": "pages/conclusion/page.md",
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  "children": []
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- },
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- {
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- "slug": "success-cond-repro",
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- "title": "success-cond-repro",
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- "file": "pages/success-cond-repro/page.md",
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- "children": []
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  }
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  ]
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  },
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  "agent_view_tokens": 3916,
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  "revision": "1784183381320786226"
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- }
 
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  {
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  "schema_version": 1,
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+ "title": "Reproduction: Success-Conditioning as Policy Improvement: The Optimization Problem Solved by Imitating Success",
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  "emoji": "🎯",
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  "space_id": "SabaPivot/repro-success-conditioning",
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  "paper": {
 
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  "updated_at": "2026-07-16T06:29:41+00:00",
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  "root": {
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  "slug": "index",
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+ "title": "Reproduction: Success-Conditioning as Policy Improvement: The Optimization Problem Solved by Imitating Success",
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  "file": "pages/index.md",
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  "children": [
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+ {
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+ "slug": "executive-summary",
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+ "title": "Executive summary",
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+ "file": "pages/executive-summary/page.md",
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+ "children": []
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+ },
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  {
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  "slug": "claim-1-chi-squared-trust-region-equivalence-prop-4-1",
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  "title": "Claim 1: Chi-squared trust-region equivalence (Prop 4.1)",
 
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  "title": "Conclusion",
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  "file": "pages/conclusion/page.md",
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  "children": []
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  }
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  ]
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  },
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  "agent_view_tokens": 3916,
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  "revision": "1784183381320786226"
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+ }
pages/executive-summary/page.md ADDED
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+ # Executive summary
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+
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+ ---
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+ <!-- trackio-cell
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+ {"type":"markdown","id":"success_exec_v2","created_at":"2026-07-22T04:15:00+00:00","title":"Executive summary","pinned":true,"pinned_at":"2026-07-22T04:15:00+00:00"}
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+ -->
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+ All four supplied claims for [Success-Conditioning as Policy Improvement](https://openreview.net/forum?id=FEmXFeqYNZ) were independently verified on an exact float64 tabular-MDP harness. Across 20 finite-horizon MDPs, the success-conditioned policy solves the chi-squared trust-region problem, with the constraint identity accurate to 2.8e-17. The statewise relative-advantage, chi-squared-movement, and action-influence equality holds to 4.4e-16, while a roughly 200,000-trajectory conditional estimator converges to the same aggregate. The conservative-improvement identity holds to 2.4e-16. Finally, Proposition 7.1 holds to 1.8e-15 on the paper's 100-arm Beta-bandit construction; the thresholded proxy first improves on faithful conditioning, then becomes negatively aligned at high thresholds.
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+
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+ ## Scope & cost
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+
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+ | Item | This reproduction | Full paper evidence |
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+ | --- | --- | --- |
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+ | Scope | All 4 supplied claims; exact identities, optimization certificate, conservative improvement, threshold sweep | Same theoretical and analytic-bandit scope |
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+ | Scale | 20 seeded MDPs; 1,000 feasible-policy comparisons per MDP; about 200,000 trajectories; 100-arm bandit | No larger official experimental suite was released |
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+ | Hardware | CPU | CPU |
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+ | Compute/cost | About 5 minutes; $0 | Comparable |
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+ | Limitation | Numerical verification is not a formal proof | Formal propositions remain in the paper |
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+
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+ Artifacts: [reproduction bundle](https://huggingface.co/buckets/SabaPivot/repro-success-conditioning-artifacts#success-cond-repro/repro-bundle:v0) and [artifact Bucket](https://huggingface.co/buckets/SabaPivot/repro-success-conditioning-artifacts).
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+
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+ ---
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+ <!-- trackio-cell
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+ {"type":"figure","id":"success_poster_v2","created_at":"2026-07-22T04:15:00+00:00","title":"Reproduction poster (poster_embed.html)","source_path":"poster_embed.html","pinned":true,"pinned_at":"2026-07-22T04:15:00+00:00"}
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+ -->
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+ ````html
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+ <!-- poster_embed.html -->
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+ <iframe src="https://chenruishuo-posterly.hf.space" title="Posterly reproduction poster" style="width:100%;height:720px;border:0" loading="lazy"></iframe>
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+ ````
pages/executive-summary/poster_embed.html ADDED
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+ <iframe src="https://chenruishuo-posterly.hf.space" title="Posterly reproduction poster" style="width:100%;height:720px;border:0" loading="lazy"></iframe>
pages/index.md CHANGED
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- # Repro - Success-Conditioning as Policy Improvement: The Optimization Problem Solved by Imitating Success
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  ## Pages
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  | Page |
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  | --- |
 
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  | [Claim 1: Chi-squared trust-region equivalence (Prop 4.1)](#/claim-1-chi-squared-trust-region-equivalence-prop-4-1) |
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  | [Claim 2: Three-way equality at every state (Prop 4.3-4.4)](#/claim-2-three-way-equality-at-every-state-prop-4-3-4-4) |
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  | [Claim 3: Conservative improvement operator (Cor 4.5)](#/claim-3-conservative-improvement-operator-cor-4-5) |
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  | [Claim 4: Return thresholding misalignment (Prop 7.1)](#/claim-4-return-thresholding-misalignment-prop-7-1) |
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  | [Conclusion](#/conclusion) |
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- | [success-cond-repro](#/success-cond-repro) |
 
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+ # Reproduction: Success-Conditioning as Policy Improvement: The Optimization Problem Solved by Imitating Success
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  ## Pages
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  | Page |
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  | --- |
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+ | [Executive summary](#/executive-summary) |
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  | [Claim 1: Chi-squared trust-region equivalence (Prop 4.1)](#/claim-1-chi-squared-trust-region-equivalence-prop-4-1) |
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  | [Claim 2: Three-way equality at every state (Prop 4.3-4.4)](#/claim-2-three-way-equality-at-every-state-prop-4-3-4-4) |
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  | [Claim 3: Conservative improvement operator (Cor 4.5)](#/claim-3-conservative-improvement-operator-cor-4-5) |
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  | [Claim 4: Return thresholding misalignment (Prop 7.1)](#/claim-4-return-thresholding-misalignment-prop-7-1) |
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  | [Conclusion](#/conclusion) |
 
pages/success-cond-repro/page.md DELETED
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- # success-cond-repro
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-
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-
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- ---
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- <!-- trackio-cell
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- {"type": "artifact", "id": "cell_dd2575f5869a", "created_at": "2026-07-16T06:29:31+00:00", "title": "Artifact: success-cond-repro/repro-bundle:v0", "artifact": "success-cond-repro/repro-bundle:v0", "artifact_type": "dataset"}
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- -->
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- **📦 Artifact** `success-cond-repro/repro-bundle:v0` · dataset · 3.2 MB
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-
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- https://huggingface.co/buckets/SabaPivot/repro-success-conditioning-artifacts#success-cond-repro/repro-bundle:v0