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app/forecaster.py

@@ -1,15 +1,6 @@
 """
-Future Forecaster
-Mendukung dua pola prediksi:
-
-  skip_n1=True  (default — laporan belum masuk):
-    N   = bulan data terakhir
-    N+1 = dilewati
-    N+2 = bulan yang diprediksi
-
-  skip_n1=False (data sudah tersedia):
-    N   = bulan data terakhir
-    N+1 = bulan yang diprediksi langsung
+Future Forecaster — N+1 only
+Prediksi 1 bulan ke depan langsung dari data terakhir.
 """
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
@@ -42,13 +33,12 @@ def forecast_one_product(
     model,
     le_cat,
     le_types,
-    country_code: str  = "ID",
-    skip_n1     : bool = True,
+    country_code: str = "ID",
 ) -> dict:
     """
-    Prediksi 1 bulan ke depan.
-    skip_n1=True  → prediksi N+2 (laporan N+1 belum masuk)
-    skip_n1=False → prediksi N+1 (data sudah tersedia)
+    Prediksi stok 1 bulan ke depan (N+1) dari data terakhir.
+    N   = bulan data terakhir
+    N+1 = bulan yang diprediksi
     """
     df_prod = df_cont[df_cont["Product_ID"] == product_id].copy()
     df_prod = df_prod.sort_values("Date").reset_index(drop=True)
@@ -56,16 +46,8 @@ def forecast_one_product(
     if df_prod.empty:
         return {"error": f"Produk {product_id} tidak ditemukan."}
 
-    last_date = df_prod["Date"].max()
-
-    if skip_n1:
-        skip_date   = last_date + relativedelta(months=1)
-        target_date = last_date + relativedelta(months=2)
-        pola_label  = "N+2 (laporan N+1 belum masuk)"
-    else:
-        skip_date   = None
-        target_date = last_date + relativedelta(months=1)
-        pola_label  = "N+1 (data sudah tersedia)"
+    last_date   = df_prod["Date"].max()
+    target_date = last_date + relativedelta(months=1)
 
     qty_history = df_prod["Quantity"].values
 
@@ -113,14 +95,11 @@ def forecast_one_product(
         "category"    : category,
         "types"       : types,
         "last_data"   : last_date.strftime("%b %Y"),
-        "skip_month"  : skip_date.strftime("%b %Y") if skip_date else None,
         "target_month": target_date.strftime("%b %Y"),
         "prediksi"    : int(prediksi),
-        "skip_n1"     : skip_n1,
-        "pola_label"  : pola_label,
         "fitur_input" : {
-            "qty_lag1": qty_lag1, "qty_lag2": qty_lag2,
-            "qty_lag3": qty_lag3, "qty_lag12": qty_lag12,
+            "qty_lag1" : qty_lag1, "qty_lag2": qty_lag2,
+            "qty_lag3" : qty_lag3, "qty_lag12": qty_lag12,
             "qty_roll3": round(qty_roll3, 2), "is_holiday": is_holiday,
         },
         "hist_labels" : hist_labels,
@@ -133,9 +112,8 @@ def forecast_all_products(
     model,
     le_cat,
     le_types,
-    country_code: str  = "ID",
-    top_n       : int  = None,
-    skip_n1     : bool = True,
+    country_code: str = "ID",
+    top_n       : int = None,
 ) -> list:
     if top_n:
         products = (
@@ -148,7 +126,7 @@ def forecast_all_products(
 
     results = []
     for pid in products:
-        r = forecast_one_product(df_cont, pid, model, le_cat, le_types, country_code, skip_n1)
+        r = forecast_one_product(df_cont, pid, model, le_cat, le_types, country_code)
         if "error" not in r:
             results.append(r)
     return results

app/main.py

@@ -323,20 +323,15 @@ def list_products(session_id: str):
 
 
 # ─────────────────────────────────────────
-# FORECAST MASA DEPAN (N+2)
+# FORECAST MASA DEPAN (N+1)
 # ─────────────────────────────────────────
 @app.get("/forecast/{session_id}")
 def forecast(
     session_id: str,
     product_id: Optional[str] = None,
-    skip_n1   : bool = True,
 ):
     """
-    Prediksi stok masa depan.
-
-    **skip_n1=true** (default): prediksi N+2 — laporan bulan N+1 belum masuk
-    **skip_n1=false**: prediksi N+1 — data sudah tersedia langsung
-
+    Prediksi stok bulan depan (N+1) langsung dari data terakhir.
     Jika product_id diisi → prediksi 1 produk.
     Jika kosong          → prediksi top 10 produk terlaris.
     """
@@ -356,37 +351,29 @@ def forecast(
 
     # Prediksi
     if product_id:
-        raw = forecast_one_product(df_cont, product_id, model, le_cat, le_types, country_code, skip_n1)
+        raw = forecast_one_product(df_cont, product_id, model, le_cat, le_types, country_code)
         if "error" in raw:
             raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail=raw["error"])
         forecasts = [raw]
     else:
         forecasts = forecast_all_products(
-            df_cont, model, le_cat, le_types, country_code, top_n=10, skip_n1=skip_n1
+            df_cont, model, le_cat, le_types, country_code, top_n=10
         )
 
-    # Bangun response dengan chart gabungan
+    # Bangun response
     output = []
     for f in forecasts:
         chart = _build_forecast_chart(
             hist_labels  = f["hist_labels"],
             hist_qty     = f["hist_qty"],
-            skip_month   = f["skip_month"],
             target_month = f["target_month"],
             prediksi     = f["prediksi"],
             product_id   = f["product_id"],
             product_name = f["product_name"],
-            skip_n1      = f["skip_n1"],
         )
 
-        # Keterangan dinamis
-        if f["skip_n1"]:
-            ket = (f"Prediksi stok untuk {f['target_month']} "
-                   f"(data terakhir: {f['last_data']}, "
-                   f"bulan {f['skip_month']} dilewati — laporan belum masuk)")
-        else:
-            ket = (f"Prediksi stok untuk {f['target_month']} "
-                   f"(data terakhir: {f['last_data']}, prediksi langsung N+1)")
+        ket = (f"Prediksi stok untuk {f['target_month']} "
+               f"(data terakhir: {f['last_data']})")
 
         output.append({
             "product_id"  : f["product_id"],
@@ -395,39 +382,33 @@ def forecast(
             "types"       : f["types"],
             "forecast"    : {
                 "last_data"   : f["last_data"],
-                "skip_month"  : f["skip_month"],
                 "target_month": f["target_month"],
                 "prediksi_pcs": f["prediksi"],
-                "pola"        : f["pola_label"],
                 "keterangan"  : ket,
             },
             "chart_json"  : json.loads(chart),
             "fitur_input" : f["fitur_input"],
         })
 
-    pola_str = "N → skip N+1 → prediksi N+2" if skip_n1 else "N → prediksi N+1"
     return {
-        "status"  : "success",
-        "skip_n1" : skip_n1,
-        "pattern" : pola_str,
-        "results" : output,
+        "status" : "success",
+        "pattern": "N → prediksi N+1",
+        "results": output,
     }
 
 
 def _build_forecast_chart(
     hist_labels : list,
     hist_qty    : list,
-    skip_month  : str,
     target_month: str,
     prediksi    : int,
     product_id  : str,
     product_name: str,
-    skip_n1     : bool = True,
 ) -> str:
-    """Buat grafik Plotly gabungan historis + prediksi future."""
+    """Buat grafik Plotly gabungan historis + prediksi N+1."""
     import plotly.graph_objects as go
 
-    fig = go.Figure()
+    fig        = go.Figure()
     last_label = hist_labels[-1]
     last_qty   = hist_qty[-1]
 
@@ -439,39 +420,16 @@ def _build_forecast_chart(
         marker=dict(symbol="circle", size=7),
     ))
 
-    if skip_n1:
-        # Pola N+2: garis putus melewati skip_month (gap)
-        fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
-            x=[last_label, skip_month, target_month],
-            y=[last_qty,   None,       prediksi],
-            mode="lines+markers",
-            name=f"Prediksi {target_month}",
-            line=dict(color="darkorange", width=2.5, dash="dot"),
-            marker=dict(symbol=["circle","x","star"], size=[0,10,14],
-                        color=["darkorange","gray","darkorange"]),
-            connectgaps=False,
-        ))
-        # Anotasi skip
-        fig.add_annotation(
-            x=skip_month, y=max(hist_qty) * 0.1 if hist_qty else 0,
-            text="⏭ Laporan<br>belum masuk",
-            showarrow=False,
-            font=dict(size=10, color="#94a3b8"),
-            bgcolor="#f8fafc", bordercolor="#e2e8f0",
-        )
-        subtitle = f"Historis 12 bulan + Prediksi {target_month} (pola N+2)"
-    else:
-        # Pola N+1: garis langsung ke prediksi tanpa gap
-        fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
-            x=[last_label, target_month],
-            y=[last_qty,   prediksi],
-            mode="lines+markers",
-            name=f"Prediksi {target_month}",
-            line=dict(color="darkorange", width=2.5, dash="dot"),
-            marker=dict(symbol=["circle","star"], size=[0,14],
-                        color=["darkorange","darkorange"]),
-        ))
-        subtitle = f"Historis 12 bulan + Prediksi {target_month} (pola N+1)"
+    # Garis prediksi N+1 — langsung tanpa gap
+    fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(
+        x=[last_label, target_month],
+        y=[last_qty,   prediksi],
+        mode="lines+markers",
+        name=f"Prediksi {target_month}",
+        line=dict(color="darkorange", width=2.5, dash="dot"),
+        marker=dict(symbol=["circle","star"], size=[0,14],
+                    color=["darkorange","darkorange"]),
+    ))
 
     # Anotasi nilai prediksi
     fig.add_annotation(
@@ -483,6 +441,8 @@ def _build_forecast_chart(
         ay=-40,
     )
 
+    subtitle = f"Historis 12 bulan + Prediksi {target_month} (N+1)"
+
     fig.update_layout(
         title=dict(
             text=f"Prediksi Stok — {product_id} ({product_name})<br><sup>{subtitle}</sup>",