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DayAheadPlanner: dynamic-programming trajectory optimizer for agrivoltaic control.
Given a day-ahead weather forecast (temperature, GHI) and the current energy
budget, finds the optimal tilt-offset trajectory for the next day that
maximises a combined utility of crop protection and energy generation.
Algorithm
---------
For each 15-min slot t from sunrise to sunset:
1. Predict vine state: Tleaf ≈ Tair (proxy), GHI from forecast, CWSI from
temperature heuristic, shading_helps from FvCB Rubisco transition.
2. Run InterventionGate — if blocked, slot must stay at θ_astro (offset=0).
3. For each candidate offset θ ∈ CANDIDATE_OFFSETS:
U_t(θ) = Price_energy · E_t(θ) + Price_crop · A_t(θ) − MovementCost(θ, θ_{t-1})
where E_t is energy generated and A_t is agronomic value (weighted by
phenological stage and zone).
4. DP recurrence: V_t(θ) = U_t(θ) + max_{θ'} V_{t-1}(θ')
with cumulative energy sacrifice ≤ daily budget constraint.
The result is a DayAheadPlan: a list of SlotPlan objects, one per 15-min slot,
each containing the chosen offset, expected energy cost, and explainability tags.
References
----------
- config/settings.py §Day-Ahead DP Planner
- context/2_plan.md §3.3
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import math
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta
from typing import List, Optional
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from config.settings import (
CANDIDATE_OFFSETS,
DP_BASE_CROP_VALUE,
DP_FLAT_ENERGY_PRICE_ILS_KWH,
DP_MOVEMENT_COST,
DP_SLOT_DURATION_MIN,
NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR,
SEMILLON_TRANSITION_TEMP_C,
SHADE_ELIGIBLE_CWSI_ABOVE,
SHADE_ELIGIBLE_GHI_ABOVE,
SHADE_ELIGIBLE_TLEAF_ABOVE,
STAGE_CROP_MULTIPLIER,
ZONE_CROP_WEIGHTS,
)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Data containers
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
@dataclass
class SlotPlan:
"""Planned tilt offset for a single 15-min slot."""
time: str # "HH:MM" UTC
offset_deg: float # degrees off astronomical tracking (0 = full tracking)
energy_cost_kwh: float # estimated energy sacrifice (kWh)
gate_passed: bool # whether InterventionGate allowed intervention
tags: List[str] = field(default_factory=list) # explainability tags
@dataclass
class DayAheadPlan:
"""Complete day-ahead tilt trajectory plan."""
target_date: str # ISO date string
slots: List[SlotPlan] # one per daylight 15-min slot
total_energy_cost_kwh: float # sum of all slot costs
daily_budget_kwh: float # available daily budget
budget_utilisation_pct: float # total_cost / budget × 100
stage_id: str # phenological stage used
n_intervention_slots: int # slots where offset > 0
def to_dict(self) -> dict:
return {
"target_date": self.target_date,
"stage_id": self.stage_id,
"daily_budget_kwh": round(self.daily_budget_kwh, 4),
"total_energy_cost_kwh": round(self.total_energy_cost_kwh, 4),
"budget_utilisation_pct": round(self.budget_utilisation_pct, 1),
"n_intervention_slots": self.n_intervention_slots,
"slots": [
{
"time": s.time,
"offset_deg": s.offset_deg,
"energy_cost_kwh": round(s.energy_cost_kwh, 6),
"gate_passed": s.gate_passed,
"tags": s.tags,
}
for s in self.slots
],
}
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# DayAheadPlanner
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
class DayAheadPlanner:
"""DP-based day-ahead trajectory optimizer.
Parameters
----------
shadow_model : object, optional
ShadowModel instance for solar position and tracker geometry.
baseline_predictor : BaselinePredictor, optional
Hybrid FvCB+ML predictor for per-slot photosynthesis baseline.
If provided, ``plan_day()`` uses predicted A for crop value instead
of the temperature-only heuristic.
energy_price : float
Energy price (ILS/kWh) for the utility function.
crop_value : float
Base crop value (ILS per µmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ per slot).
movement_cost : float
Penalty per degree of tilt change between consecutive slots (ILS-equivalent).
"""
def __init__(
self,
shadow_model=None,
baseline_predictor=None,
energy_price: float = DP_FLAT_ENERGY_PRICE_ILS_KWH,
crop_value: float = DP_BASE_CROP_VALUE,
movement_cost: float = DP_MOVEMENT_COST,
):
self._shadow_model = shadow_model
self._baseline_predictor = baseline_predictor
self.energy_price = energy_price
self.crop_value = crop_value
self.movement_cost = movement_cost
@property
def shadow_model(self):
if self._shadow_model is None:
from src.shading.solar_geometry import ShadowModel
self._shadow_model = ShadowModel()
return self._shadow_model
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Main entry point
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def plan_day(
self,
target_date: date,
forecast_temps: List[float],
forecast_ghi: List[float],
daily_budget_kwh: float,
stage_id: Optional[str] = None,
) -> DayAheadPlan:
"""Generate an optimal tilt trajectory for the given day.
Parameters
----------
target_date : date
The day to plan for.
forecast_temps : list of float
Forecast air temperature (°C) for each 15-min slot (96 values).
Only daylight slots are used; nighttime values are ignored.
forecast_ghi : list of float
Forecast GHI (W/m²) for each 15-min slot (96 values).
daily_budget_kwh : float
Available energy sacrifice budget for the day (kWh).
stage_id : str, optional
Phenological stage identifier. If None, estimated from date.
Returns
-------
DayAheadPlan
"""
if stage_id is None:
from src.models.phenology import estimate_stage_for_date
stage_id = estimate_stage_for_date(target_date).id
# Crop value multiplier for this phenological stage
crop_multiplier = self._get_crop_multiplier(stage_id)
# Compute baseline A predictions if predictor is available
baseline_a: Optional[List[float]] = None
if self._baseline_predictor is not None:
try:
baseline_a = self._baseline_predictor.predict_day(
forecast_temps, forecast_ghi,
)
except Exception as exc:
import logging
logging.getLogger(__name__).warning(
"Baseline predictor failed, using temperature heuristic: %s", exc,
)
# Build slot timeline (sunrise to sunset only)
slots_info = self._build_slot_info(
target_date, forecast_temps, forecast_ghi, crop_multiplier,
baseline_a=baseline_a,
)
if not slots_info:
return DayAheadPlan(
target_date=str(target_date),
slots=[],
total_energy_cost_kwh=0.0,
daily_budget_kwh=daily_budget_kwh,
budget_utilisation_pct=0.0,
stage_id=stage_id,
n_intervention_slots=0,
)
# Run DP optimization
offsets = [0] + [o for o in CANDIDATE_OFFSETS if o > 0]
planned_slots = self._dp_optimize(
slots_info, offsets, daily_budget_kwh,
)
total_cost = sum(s.energy_cost_kwh for s in planned_slots)
n_interventions = sum(1 for s in planned_slots if s.offset_deg > 0)
utilisation = (total_cost / daily_budget_kwh * 100) if daily_budget_kwh > 0 else 0.0
return DayAheadPlan(
target_date=str(target_date),
slots=planned_slots,
total_energy_cost_kwh=total_cost,
daily_budget_kwh=daily_budget_kwh,
budget_utilisation_pct=utilisation,
stage_id=stage_id,
n_intervention_slots=n_interventions,
)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Slot info builder
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def _build_slot_info(
self,
target_date: date,
forecast_temps: List[float],
forecast_ghi: List[float],
crop_multiplier: float,
baseline_a: Optional[List[float]] = None,
) -> List[dict]:
"""Build per-slot metadata for daylight hours.
Returns list of dicts with keys: time_str, hour, temp_c, ghi,
solar_elevation, solar_azimuth, astro_tilt, gate_passed,
gate_reason, energy_per_slot_kwh, crop_value_weight.
"""
day_start = pd.Timestamp(target_date, tz="UTC")
times = pd.date_range(day_start, periods=96, freq="15min")
# Solar positions for the whole day
solar_pos = self.shadow_model.get_solar_position(times)
slots = []
for i, ts in enumerate(times):
hour = ts.hour + ts.minute / 60.0
elev = float(solar_pos.iloc[i]["solar_elevation"])
# Skip nighttime
if elev <= 2:
continue
temp_c = forecast_temps[i] if i < len(forecast_temps) else 25.0
ghi = forecast_ghi[i] if i < len(forecast_ghi) else 0.0
# Skip slots with no meaningful irradiance
if ghi < 50:
continue
azim = float(solar_pos.iloc[i]["solar_azimuth"])
tracker = self.shadow_model.compute_tracker_tilt(azim, elev)
astro_tilt = float(tracker["tracker_theta"])
# Gate check (simplified — uses forecast data as proxy)
gate_passed, gate_reason = self._check_gate(
temp_c, ghi, hour,
)
# Energy at astronomical tracking (kWh per kWp for this slot)
aoi = float(tracker["aoi"])
energy_astro = max(0.0, math.cos(math.radians(aoi))) * 0.25
slot_dict = {
"time_str": ts.strftime("%H:%M"),
"hour": hour,
"temp_c": temp_c,
"ghi": ghi,
"solar_elevation": elev,
"solar_azimuth": azim,
"astro_tilt": astro_tilt,
"gate_passed": gate_passed,
"gate_reason": gate_reason,
"energy_astro_kwh": energy_astro,
"crop_multiplier": crop_multiplier,
}
# Attach baseline A if available (from BaselinePredictor)
if baseline_a is not None and i < len(baseline_a):
slot_dict["baseline_a"] = baseline_a[i]
slots.append(slot_dict)
return slots
def _check_gate(
self,
temp_c: float,
ghi: float,
hour: float,
) -> tuple[bool, str]:
"""Simplified gate check using forecast data.
Uses the same thresholds as InterventionGate but without sensor data.
CWSI is estimated from temperature (proxy).
"""
# No shade before configured hour
if hour < NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR:
return False, f"before_{NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR}:00"
# Temperature below Rubisco transition
if temp_c < SHADE_ELIGIBLE_TLEAF_ABOVE:
return False, f"temp_{temp_c:.0f}C_below_threshold"
# GHI below meaningful radiation
if ghi < SHADE_ELIGIBLE_GHI_ABOVE:
return False, f"ghi_{ghi:.0f}_below_threshold"
# CWSI proxy from temperature (simplified: T>35 → stressed)
cwsi_proxy = max(0.0, min(1.0, (temp_c - 30.0) / 10.0))
if cwsi_proxy < SHADE_ELIGIBLE_CWSI_ABOVE:
return False, f"cwsi_proxy_{cwsi_proxy:.2f}_below_threshold"
# FvCB shading_helps: above transition temp + high GHI = Rubisco-limited
shading_helps = temp_c >= SEMILLON_TRANSITION_TEMP_C and ghi >= 400
if not shading_helps:
return False, "fvcb_shading_not_helpful"
return True, "gate_passed"
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# DP optimizer
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def _dp_optimize(
self,
slots_info: List[dict],
offsets: List[float],
daily_budget_kwh: float,
) -> List[SlotPlan]:
"""Dynamic programming over slots × offsets with budget constraint.
State: (slot_index, offset_index)
Constraint: cumulative energy cost ≤ daily_budget_kwh
Objective: maximise total utility (energy revenue + crop protection − movement cost)
"""
n_slots = len(slots_info)
n_offsets = len(offsets)
# Discretise budget into steps for tractable DP
budget_steps = 100
budget_per_step = daily_budget_kwh / budget_steps if daily_budget_kwh > 0 else 0.001
# DP table: V[t][o][b] = best utility from slot t onwards
# with offset o at slot t and b budget steps remaining
# Use forward pass to fill, then backtrack.
INF = float("-inf")
# Pre-compute per-slot utilities for each offset
slot_utilities = [] # [slot][offset] → (utility, energy_cost)
for si in slots_info:
utils_for_slot = []
for offset in offsets:
u, cost = self._slot_utility(si, offset)
utils_for_slot.append((u, cost))
slot_utilities.append(utils_for_slot)
# Forward DP
# V[t][o][b] = max total utility achievable from slots 0..t
# ending at offset o with b budget steps consumed
V = np.full((n_slots, n_offsets, budget_steps + 1), INF)
choice = np.full((n_slots, n_offsets, budget_steps + 1), -1, dtype=int)
# Initialize slot 0
for oi, offset in enumerate(offsets):
if not slots_info[0]["gate_passed"] and offset > 0:
continue # gate blocked
u, cost = slot_utilities[0][oi]
b_used = int(math.ceil(cost / budget_per_step)) if cost > 0 else 0
if b_used <= budget_steps:
V[0, oi, b_used] = u
# Fill forward
for t in range(1, n_slots):
gate_passed = slots_info[t]["gate_passed"]
for oi, offset in enumerate(offsets):
if not gate_passed and offset > 0:
continue # gate blocked — only offset=0 allowed
u_t, cost_t = slot_utilities[t][oi]
b_cost = int(math.ceil(cost_t / budget_per_step)) if cost_t > 0 else 0
for prev_oi, prev_offset in enumerate(offsets):
# Movement cost between consecutive offsets
move_penalty = self.movement_cost * abs(offset - prev_offset)
for b_prev in range(budget_steps + 1):
if V[t - 1, prev_oi, b_prev] == INF:
continue
b_total = b_prev + b_cost
if b_total > budget_steps:
continue # budget exceeded
val = V[t - 1, prev_oi, b_prev] + u_t - move_penalty
if val > V[t, oi, b_total]:
V[t, oi, b_total] = val
choice[t, oi, b_total] = prev_oi
# Backtrack: find best final state
best_val = INF
best_oi = 0
best_b = 0
for oi in range(n_offsets):
for b in range(budget_steps + 1):
if V[n_slots - 1, oi, b] > best_val:
best_val = V[n_slots - 1, oi, b]
best_oi = oi
best_b = b
# Trace back the path
path = [0] * n_slots
path[n_slots - 1] = best_oi
current_b = best_b
for t in range(n_slots - 1, 0, -1):
prev_oi = choice[t, path[t], current_b]
if prev_oi < 0:
prev_oi = 0 # fallback to astronomical
# Recover budget used at slot t
_, cost_t = slot_utilities[t][path[t]]
b_cost = int(math.ceil(cost_t / budget_per_step)) if cost_t > 0 else 0
current_b = max(0, current_b - b_cost)
path[t - 1] = prev_oi
# Build SlotPlan list
planned: List[SlotPlan] = []
for t, si in enumerate(slots_info):
oi = path[t]
offset = offsets[oi]
_, cost = slot_utilities[t][oi]
tags = []
if not si["gate_passed"]:
tags.append(f"gate_blocked:{si['gate_reason']}")
elif offset > 0:
tags.append(f"intervention:{offset}deg")
else:
tags.append("full_tracking")
planned.append(SlotPlan(
time=si["time_str"],
offset_deg=offset,
energy_cost_kwh=round(cost, 6),
gate_passed=si["gate_passed"],
tags=tags,
))
return planned
def _slot_utility(self, si: dict, offset_deg: float) -> tuple[float, float]:
"""Compute utility and energy cost for a slot at a given offset.
Utility = energy_revenue + crop_protection_value
Energy cost = energy_astro − energy_at_offset (kWh)
Returns (utility, energy_cost_kwh).
"""
energy_astro = si["energy_astro_kwh"]
# Energy at offset: cos(AOI + offset) approximation
sacrifice_frac = 1.0 - math.cos(math.radians(offset_deg))
energy_at_offset = energy_astro * (1.0 - sacrifice_frac)
energy_cost = energy_astro - energy_at_offset # kWh sacrificed
# Energy revenue (ILS)
energy_revenue = energy_at_offset * self.energy_price
# Crop protection value: non-zero only when gate passes and offset > 0
crop_value = 0.0
if si["gate_passed"] and offset_deg > 0:
# Higher offset → more shade → more crop protection (diminishing returns)
shade_benefit = math.sqrt(offset_deg / 20.0) # diminishing returns
if "baseline_a" in si and si["baseline_a"] > 0:
# Use actual photosynthesis prediction for stress severity.
# Higher A under full sun means more to protect; the benefit of
# shading scales with how much photosynthesis is at risk.
baseline_a = si["baseline_a"]
# Normalize: A ~ 10-20 µmol typical → severity 1.0-2.0
stress_severity = baseline_a / 10.0
else:
# Fallback: temperature heuristic
stress_severity = max(0.0, si["temp_c"] - SEMILLON_TRANSITION_TEMP_C) / 10.0
crop_value = (
self.crop_value
* si["crop_multiplier"]
* stress_severity
* shade_benefit
)
utility = energy_revenue + crop_value
return utility, energy_cost
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Helpers
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
@staticmethod
def _get_crop_multiplier(stage_id: str) -> float:
"""Map phenological stage ID to crop value multiplier."""
# Map stage IDs to the STAGE_CROP_MULTIPLIER keys
stage_map = {
"budburst_vegetative": "pre_flowering",
"flowering_fruit_set": "fruit_set",
"berry_growth": "fruit_set",
"veraison_ripening": "veraison",
"post_harvest_reserves": "post_harvest",
"winter_dormancy": "post_harvest",
}
mapped = stage_map.get(stage_id, "fruit_set")
return STAGE_CROP_MULTIPLIER.get(mapped, 1.0)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# CLI smoke test
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
if __name__ == "__main__":
from src.shading.solar_geometry import ShadowModel
shadow = ShadowModel()
planner = DayAheadPlanner(shadow_model=shadow)
# Simulate a hot July day in Sde Boker
test_date = date(2025, 7, 15)
# Generate synthetic forecast: sinusoidal temperature peaking at 38°C at 14:00 UTC
temps = []
ghis = []
for slot in range(96):
hour = slot * 0.25
# Temperature: 25°C at night, peaks at 38°C around 11:00 UTC (14:00 local)
t = 25.0 + 13.0 * max(0, math.sin(math.pi * (hour - 5) / 14)) if 5 <= hour <= 19 else 25.0
temps.append(t)
# GHI: 0 at night, peaks at 950 W/m² at solar noon (~9:40 UTC)
g = max(0, 950 * math.sin(math.pi * (hour - 4) / 12)) if 4 <= hour <= 16 else 0.0
ghis.append(g)
plan = planner.plan_day(
target_date=test_date,
forecast_temps=temps,
forecast_ghi=ghis,
daily_budget_kwh=2.0, # typical daily budget from EnergyBudgetPlanner
)
print(f"Day-Ahead Plan for {plan.target_date}")
print(f" Stage: {plan.stage_id}")
print(f" Budget: {plan.daily_budget_kwh:.2f} kWh")
print(f" Total cost: {plan.total_energy_cost_kwh:.4f} kWh ({plan.budget_utilisation_pct:.1f}%)")
print(f" Intervention slots: {plan.n_intervention_slots}/{len(plan.slots)}")
print()
print(f" {'Time':>5} {'Offset':>7} {'Cost':>10} {'Gate':>6} Tags")
print(f" {'-' * 60}")
for s in plan.slots:
status = "PASS" if s.gate_passed else "BLOCK"
print(f" {s.time:>5} {s.offset_deg:>5.0f}° {s.energy_cost_kwh:>10.6f} {status:>6} {', '.join(s.tags)}")
|