File size: 12,096 Bytes
938949f | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 | """
EnergyBudgetPlanner: hierarchical energy sacrifice budget for agrivoltaic control.
Budget hierarchy:
Annual → Monthly → Weekly → Daily → 15-min Slot
The system defaults to full astronomical tracking (max energy). Shading
interventions draw from a tight budget (default 5% of annual generation).
Budget is pre-allocated down the hierarchy so that hot days/hours get more,
and the system never overspends.
References:
- config/settings.py for all thresholds and weights
- context/2_plan.md §3.1 for design rationale
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from datetime import date, timedelta
from typing import Optional
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from config.settings import (
ANNUAL_RESERVE_PCT,
DAILY_MARGIN_PCT,
MAX_ENERGY_REDUCTION_PCT,
MONTHLY_BUDGET_WEIGHTS,
NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR,
WEEKLY_RESERVE_PCT,
)
class EnergyBudgetPlanner:
"""Hierarchical energy sacrifice budget for agrivoltaic shading control.
Parameters
----------
max_energy_reduction_pct : float
Maximum fraction of annual PV generation the vines can "spend" on
shading (default from config: 5%).
shadow_model : object, optional
ShadowModel instance used to estimate slot-level energy potential.
If None, annual plan uses a simplified analytical estimate.
"""
def __init__(
self,
max_energy_reduction_pct: float = MAX_ENERGY_REDUCTION_PCT,
shadow_model=None,
):
self.max_pct = max_energy_reduction_pct
self.shadow = shadow_model
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Annual plan
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_annual_plan(self, year: int) -> dict:
"""Compute seasonal energy potential and allocate monthly budgets.
Iterates every 15-min slot from May 1 to Sep 30, computing energy
under astronomical tracking. Then distributes the sacrifice budget
across months using MONTHLY_BUDGET_WEIGHTS.
Returns dict with:
year, total_potential_kWh, total_budget_kWh, annual_reserve_kWh,
monthly_budgets (dict[int, float]), budget_spent_kWh
"""
season_start = pd.Timestamp(f"{year}-05-01", tz="UTC")
season_end = pd.Timestamp(f"{year}-09-30 23:45", tz="UTC")
times = pd.date_range(season_start, season_end, freq="15min")
if self.shadow is not None:
energy_per_slot = self._energy_from_shadow_model(times)
else:
energy_per_slot = self._energy_analytical(times)
total_potential = float(np.sum(energy_per_slot))
total_budget = total_potential * self.max_pct / 100.0
annual_reserve = total_budget * ANNUAL_RESERVE_PCT / 100.0
distributable = total_budget - annual_reserve
monthly_budgets = {
month: distributable * weight
for month, weight in MONTHLY_BUDGET_WEIGHTS.items()
}
return {
"year": year,
"total_potential_kWh": round(total_potential, 2),
"total_budget_kWh": round(total_budget, 2),
"annual_reserve_kWh": round(annual_reserve, 2),
"monthly_budgets": {m: round(v, 4) for m, v in monthly_budgets.items()},
"budget_spent_kWh": 0.0,
}
def _energy_from_shadow_model(self, times: pd.DatetimeIndex) -> np.ndarray:
"""Estimate per-slot energy using the ShadowModel's solar position."""
solar_pos = self.shadow.get_solar_position(times)
energy = []
for _, sp in solar_pos.iterrows():
if sp["solar_elevation"] <= 0:
energy.append(0.0)
continue
tracker = self.shadow.compute_tracker_tilt(
sp["solar_azimuth"], sp["solar_elevation"]
)
# cos(AOI) × 0.25h slot duration → kWh per kWp
e = max(0.0, np.cos(np.radians(tracker["aoi"]))) * 0.25
energy.append(e)
return np.array(energy)
@staticmethod
def _energy_analytical(times: pd.DatetimeIndex) -> np.ndarray:
"""Simplified analytical estimate when no ShadowModel is available.
Vectorized: computes all ~15k slots in one numpy pass.
Uses a sinusoidal day profile peaking at solar noon. Good enough
for budget planning; not used for real-time control.
"""
from config.settings import SITE_LATITUDE
hour_utc = times.hour + times.minute / 60.0
solar_noon_utc = 12.0 - 34.8 / 15.0 # ≈ 9.68 UTC
hour_angle = (hour_utc - solar_noon_utc) * 15.0 # degrees
lat_rad = np.radians(SITE_LATITUDE)
doy = times.dayofyear
decl_rad = np.radians(23.45 * np.sin(np.radians(360.0 / 365.0 * (doy - 81))))
ha_rad = np.radians(hour_angle)
sin_elev = (
np.sin(lat_rad) * np.sin(decl_rad)
+ np.cos(lat_rad) * np.cos(decl_rad) * np.cos(ha_rad)
)
# Astronomical tracking → AOI ≈ 0 → cos(AOI) ≈ 1
# Scale by clearness (~0.75 for Sde Boker) and slot duration (0.25h)
return np.where(sin_elev > 0, sin_elev * 0.75 * 0.25, 0.0)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Weekly plan
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_weekly_plan(
self,
week_start: pd.Timestamp | date,
monthly_remaining: float,
forecast_tmax: Optional[list[float]] = None,
rollover: float = 0.0,
) -> dict:
"""Distribute weekly budget to days, weighted by (Tmax - 30)².
Days with forecast Tmax < 30°C get zero allocation (no stress
expected). Hot days get quadratically more budget.
Parameters
----------
week_start : date-like
First day of the week.
monthly_remaining : float
Remaining monthly budget (kWh).
forecast_tmax : list of 7 floats, optional
Forecast daily maximum temperature for each day of the week.
If None, budget is split evenly.
rollover : float
Unspent budget rolled over from the previous week.
Returns dict with:
weekly_total_kWh, weekly_reserve_kWh, daily_budgets_kWh (list[7])
"""
if not isinstance(week_start, pd.Timestamp):
week_start = pd.Timestamp(week_start)
month = week_start.month
# Estimate weeks remaining in the month
if month == 12:
month_end = pd.Timestamp(f"{week_start.year}-12-31")
elif month == 9:
month_end = pd.Timestamp(f"{week_start.year}-09-30")
else:
month_end = pd.Timestamp(
f"{week_start.year}-{month + 1:02d}-01"
) - timedelta(days=1)
days_left = max(1, (month_end - week_start).days)
weeks_left = max(1, days_left // 7)
weekly_raw = monthly_remaining / weeks_left + rollover
weekly_reserve = weekly_raw * WEEKLY_RESERVE_PCT / 100.0
distributable = weekly_raw - weekly_reserve
if forecast_tmax is not None and len(forecast_tmax) == 7:
weights = [max(0.0, t - 30.0) ** 2 for t in forecast_tmax]
total_w = sum(weights)
if total_w > 0:
daily = [distributable * w / total_w for w in weights]
else:
daily = [0.0] * 7 # all days < 30°C → no budget needed
else:
daily = [distributable / 7.0] * 7
return {
"weekly_total_kWh": round(weekly_raw, 4),
"weekly_reserve_kWh": round(weekly_reserve, 4),
"daily_budgets_kWh": [round(d, 4) for d in daily],
}
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Daily plan
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_daily_plan(
self,
day: date | pd.Timestamp,
daily_budget: float,
rollover: float = 0.0,
) -> dict:
"""Distribute daily budget to 15-min slots.
Zero before NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR (10:00). Peak allocation at
11:00–14:00 (60% of planned budget).
Returns dict with:
date, daily_total_kWh, daily_margin_kWh, daily_margin_remaining_kWh,
slot_budgets (dict[str, float]), cumulative_spent
"""
daily_raw = daily_budget + rollover
daily_margin = daily_raw * DAILY_MARGIN_PCT / 100.0
planned = daily_raw - daily_margin
# Time blocks with their share of the planned budget.
# The non-zero weights must sum to 1.0.
transition_end = max(NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR + 1, 11)
blocks = [
((5, NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR), 0.00), # morning — no shade
((NO_SHADE_BEFORE_HOUR, transition_end), 0.05), # transition
((transition_end, 14), 0.60), # peak stress window
((14, 16), 0.30), # sustained heat
((16, 20), 0.05), # rare late stress
]
slot_budgets: dict[str, float] = {}
for (h_start, h_end), weight in blocks:
block_budget = planned * weight
n_slots = (h_end - h_start) * 4 # 4 slots per hour
per_slot = block_budget / n_slots if n_slots > 0 else 0.0
for h in range(h_start, h_end):
for m in (0, 15, 30, 45):
slot_budgets[f"{h:02d}:{m:02d}"] = round(per_slot, 6)
return {
"date": str(day),
"daily_total_kWh": round(daily_raw, 4),
"daily_margin_kWh": round(daily_margin, 4),
"daily_margin_remaining_kWh": round(daily_margin, 4),
"slot_budgets": slot_budgets,
"cumulative_spent": 0.0,
}
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Slot-level execution helpers
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def spend_slot(self, daily_plan: dict, slot_key: str, amount: float) -> float:
"""Deduct energy from a slot's budget. Returns amount actually spent.
If the slot budget is insufficient, draws from the daily margin.
"""
available = daily_plan["slot_budgets"].get(slot_key, 0.0)
if amount <= available:
daily_plan["slot_budgets"][slot_key] -= amount
daily_plan["cumulative_spent"] += amount
return amount
# Slot budget exhausted — try daily margin
shortfall = amount - available
margin = daily_plan["daily_margin_remaining_kWh"]
from_margin = min(shortfall, margin)
total_spent = available + from_margin
daily_plan["slot_budgets"][slot_key] = 0.0
daily_plan["daily_margin_remaining_kWh"] -= from_margin
daily_plan["cumulative_spent"] += total_spent
return round(total_spent, 6)
def emergency_draw(self, annual_plan: dict, amount: float) -> float:
"""Draw from annual reserve for extreme heat events.
Returns the amount actually drawn (may be less than requested if
the reserve is depleted).
"""
available = annual_plan["annual_reserve_kWh"]
drawn = min(amount, available)
annual_plan["annual_reserve_kWh"] = round(available - drawn, 4)
annual_plan["budget_spent_kWh"] = round(
annual_plan["budget_spent_kWh"] + drawn, 4
)
return round(drawn, 4)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Rollover helper
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_daily_rollover(self, daily_plan: dict) -> float:
"""Compute unspent budget at end of day (available for next day)."""
unspent_slots = sum(daily_plan["slot_budgets"].values())
unspent_margin = daily_plan["daily_margin_remaining_kWh"]
return round(unspent_slots + unspent_margin, 4)
|