Update models/pitch_sequence_model.py

models/pitch_sequence_model.py

@@ -93,8 +93,8 @@ def _normalize_probs(fastball_prob: float, breaking_prob: float, offspeed_prob:
 
 def predict_next_pitch_distribution(feature_row: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
     """
-    Pitch sequencing model v2.
-    Still coarse, but now count-aware and sequence-aware.
+    Pitch sequencing model v2.1
+    Count-aware, sequence-aware, and lightly live-telemetry-aware.
     """
     balls = int(feature_row.get("balls", 0))
     strikes = int(feature_row.get("strikes", 0))
@@ -105,6 +105,10 @@ def predict_next_pitch_distribution(feature_row: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, An
     batter_barrel_rate = feature_row.get("batter_barrel_rate")
     batter_hard_hit_rate = feature_row.get("batter_hard_hit_rate")
 
+    velo_delta = feature_row.get("velo_delta_from_baseline")
+    spin_delta = feature_row.get("spin_delta_from_baseline")
+    extension_delta = feature_row.get("extension_delta_from_baseline")
+
     fastball_prob = 0.48
     breaking_prob = 0.32
     offspeed_prob = 0.20
@@ -157,6 +161,36 @@ def predict_next_pitch_distribution(feature_row: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, An
     except Exception:
         pass
 
+    # Live overlay: if velo is down, reduce fastball confidence slightly
+    try:
+        if velo_delta is not None and float(velo_delta) <= -1.0:
+            fastball_prob -= 0.03
+            breaking_prob += 0.02
+            offspeed_prob += 0.01
+        elif velo_delta is not None and float(velo_delta) >= 1.0:
+            fastball_prob += 0.02
+            breaking_prob -= 0.01
+            offspeed_prob -= 0.01
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
+    # Live overlay: if spin is down, slightly reduce breaking-ball trust
+    try:
+        if spin_delta is not None and float(spin_delta) <= -120:
+            breaking_prob -= 0.02
+            fastball_prob += 0.01
+            offspeed_prob += 0.01
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
+    # Live overlay: shorter extension can imply less deception
+    try:
+        if extension_delta is not None and float(extension_delta) <= -0.25:
+            fastball_prob -= 0.01
+            offspeed_prob += 0.01
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
     fastball_prob, breaking_prob, offspeed_prob = _normalize_probs(
         fastball_prob, breaking_prob, offspeed_prob
     )