Update analytics/recommendation_engine.py

analytics/recommendation_engine.py

@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ def build_upcoming_hitter_recommendations(
 ) -> list[dict]:
     """
     Decision-layer wrapper.
-    Uses simulated fair rows, then adds:
+    Uses simulated fair rows, then applies:
     1) opportunity adjustment
     2) confidence
     3) recommendation tier
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ def build_upcoming_hitter_recommendations(
     recommendations: list[dict] = []
 
     for row in rows:
-        slot = row.get("slot", "current")
+        slot = row.get("slot", "Current")
         lineup_distance = _lineup_distance_from_slot(slot)
 
         opportunity = estimate_plate_appearance_probability(
@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ def build_upcoming_hitter_recommendations(
 
         expected_pa = float(opportunity.get("expected_pa", 1.0) or 1.0)
 
-        # Apply opportunity adjustment to downstream probabilities
+        # Apply opportunity adjustment to the simulated probabilities
         for prob_col in ["hit_prob", "hr_prob", "tb2p_prob"]:
             if prob_col in row and row.get(prob_col) is not None:
                 try:
@@ -64,7 +64,36 @@ def build_upcoming_hitter_recommendations(
                 except Exception:
                     pass
 
-        # Carry opportunity diagnostics forward for debugging/auditing
+        # Recalculate fair odds and edges after probability adjustment
+        if row.get("hit_prob") is not None:
+            row["fair_hit_odds"] = probability_to_american(row["hit_prob"])
+        if row.get("hr_prob") is not None:
+            row["fair_hr_odds"] = probability_to_american(row["hr_prob"])
+        if row.get("tb2p_prob") is not None:
+            row["fair_tb2p_odds"] = probability_to_american(row["tb2p_prob"])
+
+        try:
+            book_hit_odds = float(row.get("book_hit_odds"))
+            row["hit_edge"] = compute_edge(row["hit_prob"], 100 / (book_hit_odds + 100))
+            row["hit_bet_ev"] = compute_bet_ev(row["hit_prob"], int(book_hit_odds))
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+        try:
+            book_hr_odds = float(row.get("book_hr_odds"))
+            row["hr_edge"] = compute_edge(row["hr_prob"], 100 / (book_hr_odds + 100))
+            row["hr_bet_ev"] = compute_bet_ev(row["hr_prob"], int(book_hr_odds))
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+        try:
+            book_tb2p_odds = float(row.get("book_tb2p_odds"))
+            row["tb2p_edge"] = compute_edge(row["tb2p_prob"], 100 / (book_tb2p_odds + 100))
+            row["tb2p_bet_ev"] = compute_bet_ev(row["tb2p_prob"], int(book_tb2p_odds))
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+        # Carry diagnostics forward
         row["lineup_distance"] = lineup_distance
         row["pa_prob_this_inning"] = opportunity.get("pa_prob_this_inning")
         row["pa_prob_next_two_innings"] = opportunity.get("pa_prob_next_two_innings")