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import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from "react";
import {
LineChart, Line, XAxis, YAxis, Tooltip, ResponsiveContainer, Legend, CartesianGrid,
AreaChart, Area, BarChart, Bar
} from "recharts";
// -----------------------------
// Fake JSON example (5 assets, 67 trading days, randomized tickers)
// -----------------------------
function generateFakeJSON() {
const randTicker = () => Math.random().toString(36).substring(2, 6).toUpperCase();
const tickers = Array.from({ length: 5 }, () => randTicker());
const start = new Date("2024-01-02T00:00:00Z");
const dates = Array.from({ length: 67 }, (_, i) => {
const d = new Date(start);
d.setDate(start.getDate() + i);
return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
});
const fake: Record<string, { date: string; close: number }[]> = {};
for (let a = 0; a < 5; a++) {
const ticker = tickers[a];
let price = 80 + Math.random() * 40;
const mu = (Math.random() * 0.1 - 0.05) / 252;
const sigma = 0.15 + Math.random() * 0.35;
const series: { date: string; close: number }[] = [];
for (let i = 0; i < dates.length; i++) {
if (i > 0) {
const z = (Math.random() - 0.5) * 1.6 + (Math.random() - 0.5) * 1.6;
const daily = mu + (sigma / Math.sqrt(252)) * z;
price *= 1 + daily;
}
series.push({ date: dates[i], close: Number(price.toFixed(2)) });
}
fake[ticker] = series;
}
return fake;
}
const MAX_DAYS = 67;
const maxSteps = 60; // number of picks to reach MAX_DAYS from START_DAY
const START_DAY = 7; // first visible day, first pick occurs at this day
export default function App() {
const [rawData, setRawData] = useState<Record<string, { date: string; close: number }[]>>({});
const [assets, setAssets] = useState<string[]>([]);
const [dates, setDates] = useState<string[]>([]);
const [step, setStep] = useState(1); // number of picks made
const [windowLen, setWindowLen] = useState(START_DAY); // initial visible window length
const [selectedAsset, setSelectedAsset] = useState<string | null>(null);
const [hoverAsset, setHoverAsset] = useState<string | null>(null);
const [selections, setSelections] = useState<{ step: number; date: string; asset: string; ret: number }[]>([]);
const [message, setMessage] = useState("");
const [confirming, setConfirming] = useState(false);
const [finalSaved, setFinalSaved] = useState(false);
// boot with example data
useEffect(() => {
if (Object.keys(rawData).length === 0) {
const example = generateFakeJSON();
const keys = Object.keys(example);
const first = example[keys[0]];
setRawData(example);
setAssets(keys);
setDates(first.map((d) => d.date));
setStep(1);
setWindowLen(START_DAY);
setSelections([]);
setSelectedAsset(null);
setMessage(`Loaded example: ${keys.length} assets, ${first.length} days.`);
}
}, []);
const isFinal = windowLen >= MAX_DAYS || selections.length >= maxSteps;
const windowData = useMemo(() => {
if (!dates.length || windowLen < 2) return [] as any[];
const sliceDates = dates.slice(0, windowLen);
return sliceDates.map((date, idx) => {
const row: Record<string, any> = { date };
assets.forEach((a) => {
const base = rawData[a]?.[0]?.close ?? 1;
const val = rawData[a]?.[idx]?.close ?? base;
row[a] = base ? val / base : 1;
});
return row;
});
}, [assets, dates, windowLen, rawData]);
function realizedNextDayReturn(asset: string) {
const t = windowLen - 1;
if (t + 1 >= dates.length) return null as any;
const series = rawData[asset];
const ret = series[t + 1].close / series[t].close - 1;
return { date: dates[t + 1], ret };
}
function loadExample() {
const example = generateFakeJSON();
const keys = Object.keys(example);
const first = example[keys[0]];
setRawData(example);
setAssets(keys);
setDates(first.map((d) => d.date));
setStep(1);
setWindowLen(START_DAY);
setSelections([]);
setSelectedAsset(null);
setMessage(`Loaded example: ${keys.length} assets, ${first.length} days.`);
try { localStorage.removeItem("asset_experiment_selections"); } catch {}
}
function resetSession() {
setSelections([]);
setSelectedAsset(null);
setStep(1);
setWindowLen(START_DAY);
setMessage("Session reset.");
try { localStorage.removeItem("asset_experiment_selections"); } catch {}
}
function onFile(e: any) {
const f = e.target.files?.[0];
if (!f) return;
const reader = new FileReader();
reader.onload = () => {
try {
const json = JSON.parse(String(reader.result));
const keys = Object.keys(json);
if (keys.length === 0) throw new Error("Empty dataset");
const first = json[keys[0]];
if (!Array.isArray(first) || !first[0]?.date || typeof first[0]?.close !== "number") {
throw new Error("Invalid series format (need [{date, close}])");
}
const ref = new Set(first.map((d: any) => d.date));
for (const k of keys.slice(1)) {
for (const p of json[k]) { if (!ref.has(p.date)) throw new Error("Date misalignment across assets"); }
}
setRawData(json);
setAssets(keys);
setDates(first.map((d: any) => d.date));
setStep(1);
setWindowLen(START_DAY);
setSelections([]);
setSelectedAsset(null);
setMessage(`Loaded file: ${keys.length} assets, ${first.length} days.`);
try { localStorage.removeItem("asset_experiment_selections"); } catch {}
} catch (err: any) {
setMessage("Failed to parse JSON: " + err.message);
}
};
reader.readAsText(f);
}
function exportLog() {
const blob = new Blob([JSON.stringify(selections, null, 2)], { type: "application/json" });
const url = URL.createObjectURL(blob);
const a = document.createElement("a");
a.href = url;
a.download = `selections_${new Date().toISOString().slice(0,10)}.json`;
a.click();
URL.revokeObjectURL(url);
}
function confirmSelection() {
if (confirming) return;
if (!selectedAsset) return setMessage("Select a line first.");
setConfirming(true);
const res = realizedNextDayReturn(selectedAsset);
if (!res) {
setMessage("No more data available.");
setConfirming(false);
return;
}
const entry = { step, date: res.date, asset: selectedAsset, ret: res.ret };
setSelections((prev) => [...prev, entry]);
setWindowLen((w) => Math.min(w + 1, MAX_DAYS));
setStep((s) => s + 1);
setSelectedAsset(null);
setConfirming(false);
setMessage(`Pick ${step}: ${selectedAsset} → next-day return ${(res.ret * 100).toFixed(2)}%`);
}
const portfolioSeries = useMemo(() => {
let value = 1;
const pts = selections.map((s) => {
value *= 1 + s.ret;
return { step: s.step, date: s.date, value };
});
return [{ step: 0, date: "start", value: 1 }, ...pts];
}, [selections]);
const stats = useMemo(() => {
const rets = selections.map((s) => s.ret);
const N = rets.length;
const cum = portfolioSeries.at(-1)?.value ?? 1;
const mean = N ? rets.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / N : 0;
const variance = N ? rets.reduce((a, b) => a + (b - mean) ** 2, 0) / N : 0;
const stdev = Math.sqrt(variance);
const sharpe = stdev ? (mean * 252) / (stdev * Math.sqrt(252)) : 0;
const wins = rets.filter((r) => r > 0).length;
return { cumRet: cum - 1, stdev, sharpe, wins, N };
}, [portfolioSeries, selections]);
// ---- Build and auto-save final JSON when finished ----
function buildFinalPayload() {
const lastStep = selections.reduce((m, s) => Math.max(m, s.step), 0);
const start30 = Math.max(1, lastStep - 30 + 1);
const countsAll = assets.reduce((acc: Record<string, number>, a: string) => { acc[a] = 0; return acc; }, {} as Record<string, number>);
selections.forEach((s) => { countsAll[s.asset] = (countsAll[s.asset] || 0) + 1; });
const rankAll = assets.map((a) => ({ asset: a, votes: countsAll[a] || 0 })).sort((x, y) => y.votes - x.votes);
let value = 1;
const portfolio = selections.map((s) => { value *= 1 + s.ret; return { step: s.step, date: s.date, value }; });
const lastCols = Array.from({ length: Math.min(30, lastStep ? lastStep - start30 + 1 : 0) }, (_, i) => start30 + i);
const heatGrid = assets.map((a) => ({ asset: a, cells: lastCols.map((c) => (selections.some((s) => s.asset === a && s.step === c) ? 1 : 0)) }));
const rets = selections.map((s) => s.ret);
const N = rets.length;
const cum = portfolio.at(-1)?.value ?? 1;
const mean = N ? rets.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / N : 0;
const variance = N ? rets.reduce((a, b) => a + (b - mean) ** 2, 0) / N : 0;
const stdev = Math.sqrt(variance);
const sharpe = stdev ? (mean * 252) / (stdev * Math.sqrt(252)) : 0;
const wins = rets.filter((r) => r > 0).length;
return {
meta: { saved_at: new Date().toISOString(), start_day: START_DAY, max_days: MAX_DAYS, max_steps: maxSteps },
assets,
dates,
selections,
portfolio,
stats: { cumRet: (cum - 1), stdev, sharpe, wins, N },
preference_all: rankAll,
heatmap_last30: { cols: lastCols, grid: heatGrid },
};
}
useEffect(() => {
if (isFinal && !finalSaved) {
try {
const payload = buildFinalPayload();
localStorage.setItem("asset_experiment_final", JSON.stringify(payload));
const blob = new Blob([JSON.stringify(payload, null, 2)], { type: "application/json" });
const url = URL.createObjectURL(blob);
const a = document.createElement("a");
a.href = url;
a.download = `run_summary_${new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10)}.json`;
a.click();
URL.revokeObjectURL(url);
setFinalSaved(true);
} catch (e) {
console.warn("Failed to save final JSON:", e);
}
}
}, [isFinal, finalSaved, assets, selections, dates]);
// Hotkeys: 1..N selects asset, Enter confirms
useEffect(() => {
function onKey(e: KeyboardEvent) {
const tag = (e.target && (e.target as HTMLElement).tagName) || "";
if (tag === "INPUT" || tag === "TEXTAREA") return;
const idx = parseInt((e as any).key, 10) - 1;
if (!Number.isNaN(idx) && idx >= 0 && idx < assets.length) {
setSelectedAsset(assets[idx]);
}
if ((e as any).key === "Enter" && Boolean(selectedAsset) && windowLen < MAX_DAYS) {
confirmSelection();
}
}
window.addEventListener("keydown", onKey);
return () => window.removeEventListener("keydown", onKey);
}, [assets, selectedAsset, windowLen]);
if (isFinal) {
return (
<FinalSummary assets={assets} selections={selections} />
);
}
return (
<div className="p-6 bg-gray-50 min-h-screen flex flex-col gap-6">
<div className="flex flex-wrap justify-between items-center gap-3">
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<h1 className="text-xl font-semibold">Asset Choice Simulation</h1>
<span className="text-xs text-gray-500">Day {windowLen} / {MAX_DAYS}</span>
</div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<input type="file" accept="application/json" onChange={onFile} className="text-sm" />
<button onClick={loadExample} className="text-sm px-3 py-1.5 rounded-xl bg-blue-100 text-blue-800 hover:bg-blue-200">Load Example</button>
<button onClick={resetSession} className="text-sm px-3 py-1.5 rounded-xl bg-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-300">Reset</button>
<button onClick={exportLog} className="text-sm px-3 py-1.5 rounded-xl bg-gray-900 text-white hover:bg-black">Export Log</button>
</div>
</div>
<div className="bg-white p-4 rounded-2xl shadow">
{/* Quick picker (keeps legend & line clicks) */}
<div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 mb-3">
{assets.map((a, i) => (
<button
key={`pick-${a}`}
onClick={() => setSelectedAsset(a)}
className={`text-xs px-2 py-1 rounded-xl border transition ${selectedAsset===a?"bg-blue-600 text-white border-blue-600":"bg-white text-gray-700 border-gray-200 hover:bg-gray-50"}`}
title={`Hotkey ${i+1}`}
>
<span className="inline-block w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-full mr-2" style={{backgroundColor: `hsl(${(360/assets.length)*i},70%,50%)`}} />
{i+1}. {a}
</button>
))}
{assets.length>0 && (
<span className="text-xs text-gray-500 ml-1">Hotkeys: 1–{assets.length}, Enter to confirm</span>
)}
</div>
<div className="h-80">
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
<LineChart data={windowData}>
<CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" />
<XAxis dataKey="date" tick={{ fontSize: 10 }} />
<YAxis domain={["auto", "auto"]} tick={{ fontSize: 10 }} />
<Tooltip contentStyle={{ fontSize: 12 }} />
<Legend onClick={(o: any) => setSelectedAsset(o.value)} wrapperStyle={{ cursor: "pointer" }} />
{assets.map((a, i) => (
<Line
key={a}
type="monotone"
dataKey={a}
strokeWidth={selectedAsset === a ? 5 : hoverAsset === a ? 4 : 2.5}
strokeOpacity={selectedAsset && selectedAsset !== a ? 0.3 : 1}
dot={false}
isAnimationActive={false}
stroke={`hsl(${(360 / assets.length) * i},70%,50%)`}
onMouseEnter={() => setHoverAsset(a)}
onMouseLeave={() => setHoverAsset(null)}
onClick={() => setSelectedAsset((p) => (p === a ? null : a))}
/>
))}
</LineChart>
</ResponsiveContainer>
</div>
<div className="flex justify-between items-center mt-3">
<div className="text-sm text-gray-600">Selected: {selectedAsset ?? "(none)"} {message && <span className="ml-2 text-gray-500">{message}</span>}</div>
<button
onClick={confirmSelection}
disabled={!selectedAsset || windowLen >= MAX_DAYS}
className={`px-4 py-2 rounded-xl ${selectedAsset && windowLen < MAX_DAYS ? "bg-blue-600 text-white" : "bg-gray-200 text-gray-500"}`}
>
Confirm & Next Day →
</button>
</div>
</div>
<div className="bg-white p-4 rounded-2xl shadow">
<h2 className="font-medium mb-2">Portfolio</h2>
<div className="h-64">
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
<AreaChart data={portfolioSeries}>
<CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" />
<XAxis dataKey="step" tick={{ fontSize: 10 }} />
<YAxis domain={["auto", "auto"]} tick={{ fontSize: 10 }} />
<Tooltip />
<Area type="monotone" dataKey="value" stroke="#2563eb" fill="#bfdbfe" />
</AreaChart>
</ResponsiveContainer>
</div>
<ul className="text-sm text-gray-700 mt-2">
<li>Cumulative Return: {(stats.cumRet * 100).toFixed(2)}%</li>
<li>Volatility: {(stats.stdev * 100).toFixed(2)}%</li>
<li>Sharpe: {stats.sharpe.toFixed(2)}</li>
<li>Winning Days: {stats.wins}/{stats.N}</li>
</ul>
</div>
{/* Daily selections table */}
<div className="bg-white p-4 rounded-2xl shadow">
<h2 className="font-medium mb-2">Daily Selections</h2>
<div className="overflow-auto rounded-xl border border-gray-100">
<table className="min-w-full text-xs">
<thead className="bg-gray-50 text-gray-500">
<tr>
<th className="px-2 py-1 text-left">Step</th>
<th className="px-2 py-1 text-left">Date (t+1)</th>
<th className="px-2 py-1 text-left">Asset</th>
<th className="px-2 py-1 text-right">Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{selections.slice().reverse().map((s) => (
<tr key={`${s.step}-${s.asset}-${s.date}`} className="odd:bg-white even:bg-gray-50">
<td className="px-2 py-1">{s.step}</td>
<td className="px-2 py-1">{s.date}</td>
<td className="px-2 py-1">{s.asset}</td>
<td className={`px-2 py-1 text-right ${s.ret>=0?"text-green-600":"text-red-600"}`}>{(s.ret*100).toFixed(2)}%</td>
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
);
}
// ---------- Final Summary Component ----------
function FinalSummary({ assets, selections }: { assets: string[]; selections: { step: number; date: string; asset: string; ret: number }[] }) {
// Overall metrics for full run
const rets = selections.map(s=>s.ret);
const N = rets.length;
const cum = rets.reduce((v,r)=> v*(1+r), 1) - 1;
const mean = N ? rets.reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0)/N : 0;
const variance = N ? rets.reduce((a,b)=> a + (b-mean)**2, 0)/N : 0;
const stdev = Math.sqrt(variance);
const sharpe = stdev ? (mean*252)/(stdev*Math.sqrt(252)) : 0;
const wins = rets.filter(r=>r>0).length;
// Preference ranking (ALL picks)
const countsAll: Record<string, number> = assets.reduce((acc: any,a: string)=>{acc[a]=0;return acc;},{} as Record<string, number>);
selections.forEach(s=>{ countsAll[s.asset] = (countsAll[s.asset]||0)+1; });
const rankAll = assets
.map(a=>({ asset:a, votes: countsAll[a]||0 }))
.sort((x,y)=> y.votes - x.votes);
// Heatmap for last 30 steps
const lastStep = selections.reduce((m,s)=>Math.max(m,s.step),0);
const start30 = Math.max(1, lastStep - 30 + 1);
const cols = Array.from({length: Math.min(30,lastStep ? lastStep - start30 + 1 : 0)}, (_,i)=> start30 + i);
const grid = assets.map(a=>({
asset:a,
cells: cols.map(c => selections.some(s=> s.asset===a && s.step===c) ? 1 : 0)
}));
return (
<div className="p-6 bg-gray-50 min-h-screen flex flex-col gap-6">
<h1 className="text-xl font-semibold">Final Summary</h1>
<div className="bg-white p-4 rounded-2xl shadow">
<h2 className="font-medium mb-2">Overall Metrics</h2>
<ul className="text-sm text-gray-700 space-y-1">
<li>Total Picks: {N}</li>
<li>Win Rate: {(N? (wins/N*100):0).toFixed(1)}%</li>
<li>Cumulative Return: {(cum*100).toFixed(2)}%</li>
<li>Volatility: {(stdev*100).toFixed(2)}%</li>
<li>Sharpe (rough): {sharpe.toFixed(2)}</li>
<li>Top Preference (All): {rankAll[0]?.asset ?? "-"} ({rankAll[0]?.votes ?? 0} votes)</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div className="bg-white p-4 rounded-2xl shadow">
<h2 className="font-medium mb-2">Selection Preference Ranking (All Assets)</h2>
<div className="h-56">
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
<BarChart data={rankAll} margin={{ left: 8, right: 8, top: 8, bottom: 8 }}>
<CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" />
<XAxis dataKey="asset" tick={{ fontSize: 10 }} />
<YAxis allowDecimals={false} tick={{ fontSize: 10 }} />
<Tooltip />
<Bar dataKey="votes" fill="#60a5fa" />
</BarChart>
</ResponsiveContainer>
</div>
</div>
<div className="bg-white p-4 rounded-2xl shadow">
<h2 className="font-medium mb-2">Selection Heatmap (Assets × Last 30 Steps)</h2>
<div className="overflow-auto">
<table className="text-xs border-collapse">
<thead>
<tr>
<th className="p-1 pr-2 text-left sticky left-0 bg-white">Asset</th>
{cols.map(c=> (
<th key={c} className="px-1 py-1 text-center">{c}</th>
))}
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{grid.map(row => (
<tr key={row.asset}>
<td className="p-1 pr-2 font-medium sticky left-0 bg-white">{row.asset}</td>
{row.cells.map((v,j)=> (
<td key={j} className="w-6 h-6" style={{
background: v? "#2563eb" : "#e5e7eb",
opacity: v? 0.9 : 1,
border: "1px solid #ffffff"
}} />
))}
</tr>
))}
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
</div>
</div>
);
}
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