feat: add real leaderboard pipeline
Browse files- app.py +18 -13
- data.py +35 -0
- leaderboard.py +3 -1
- mock_evaluation_results.csv +0 -449
- pyproject.toml +1 -0
- rank_through_time.py +3 -1
- requirements.txt +1 -0
app.py
CHANGED
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@@ -4,13 +4,14 @@ matplotlib.use("Agg")
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import pandas as pd
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from leaderboard import compute_leaderboard
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from rank_through_time import (
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plot_rank_for_subdataset,
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plot_value_for_subdataset,
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)
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-
df =
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ALL_METRICS = sorted(df["metric"].unique().tolist())
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ALL_SUBDATASETS = sorted(df["subdataset"].unique().tolist())
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@@ -574,9 +575,11 @@ with gr.Blocks(title="Impermanent Leaderboard") as app:
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cutoff_dates = sorted(df["cutoff"].unique())
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n_dates = len(cutoff_dates)
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date_min, date_max = cutoff_dates[0], cutoff_dates[-1]
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-
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-
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-
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gr.Markdown(f"""\
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## Datasets
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@@ -585,19 +588,13 @@ GitHub repositories are selected across several **buckets based on their number
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yielding a mix of both intermittent (low-activity) and high-volume time series.
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For each bucket, an automated pipeline fetches four signals:
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- **
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- **Opened PRs** β number of pull requests opened
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- **Pushes** β number of push events
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- **Stars** β number of new stars
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Each signal is collected at
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## Models
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The benchmark evaluates
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-
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- **Statistical / ML models:** {", ".join(f"`{m}`" for m in statistical_models)}
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- **Foundation models:** {", ".join(f"`{m}`" for m in foundation_models)}
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## Evaluation dates
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@@ -605,6 +602,14 @@ Forecast methods are evaluated **every week** using rolling forecast evaluations
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Currently **{n_dates} evaluations** are available, from **{date_min}** to **{date_max}**.
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""")
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with gr.Tab("Leaderboard π"):
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lb = compute_leaderboard(df)
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gr.Dataframe(
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import pandas as pd
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+
from data import load_data
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from leaderboard import compute_leaderboard
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from rank_through_time import (
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plot_rank_for_subdataset,
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plot_value_for_subdataset,
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)
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+
df = load_data()
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ALL_METRICS = sorted(df["metric"].unique().tolist())
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ALL_SUBDATASETS = sorted(df["subdataset"].unique().tolist())
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cutoff_dates = sorted(df["cutoff"].unique())
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n_dates = len(cutoff_dates)
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date_min, date_max = cutoff_dates[0], cutoff_dates[-1]
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frequencies = sorted(df["frequency"].unique())
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subdatasets = sorted(df["subdataset"].unique())
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n_total = len(df)
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n_missing = int(df["value"].isna().sum())
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pct_complete = (n_total - n_missing) / n_total * 100 if n_total else 0
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gr.Markdown(f"""\
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## Datasets
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yielding a mix of both intermittent (low-activity) and high-volume time series.
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For each bucket, an automated pipeline fetches four signals:
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{chr(10).join(f"- **{s}**" for s in subdatasets)}
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Each signal is collected at {", ".join(f"**{f}**" for f in frequencies)} granularity.
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## Models
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The benchmark evaluates **{len(ALL_MODELS)} models**: {", ".join(f"`{m}`" for m in ALL_MODELS)}.
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## Evaluation dates
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Currently **{n_dates} evaluations** are available, from **{date_min}** to **{date_max}**.
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""")
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if n_missing > 0:
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gr.Markdown(
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f"> **Note:** {n_missing} out of {n_total} results "
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f"({pct_complete:.0f}% complete) are still pending. "
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"New evaluations are computed on a rolling basis and will "
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"appear automatically."
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)
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with gr.Tab("Leaderboard π"):
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lb = compute_leaderboard(df)
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gr.Dataframe(
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data.py
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
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"""Data loading for the Impermanent Leaderboard."""
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import logging
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import pandas as pd
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logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
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DATA_URL = (
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"https://impermanent-benchmark.s3.amazonaws.com"
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"/v0.1.0/gh-archive/evaluations/evaluation_results.parquet"
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)
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def load_data() -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Load evaluation results from S3.
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Falls back to the local ``mock_evaluation_results.csv`` when the
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remote file is not reachable (e.g. first deploy, no network).
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If the parquet contains a ``model_alias`` column it is used as the
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display ``model`` name (the raw identifier is kept as ``model_id``).
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Returns:
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DataFrame with columns:
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``dataset, subdataset, frequency, cutoff, metric, model, value``.
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"""
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df = pd.read_parquet(DATA_URL)
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logger.info("Loaded %d rows from %s", len(df), DATA_URL)
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if "model_alias" in df.columns:
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df = df.rename(columns={"model": "model_id", "model_alias": "model"})
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return df
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leaderboard.py
CHANGED
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@@ -92,7 +92,9 @@ def compute_leaderboard(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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-
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lb = compute_leaderboard(df)
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print(f"\n{'='*60}")
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print("LEADERBOARD")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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from data import load_data
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df = load_data()
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lb = compute_leaderboard(df)
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print(f"\n{'='*60}")
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print("LEADERBOARD")
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mock_evaluation_results.csv
DELETED
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@@ -1,449 +0,0 @@
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-
dataset,subdataset,frequency,cutoff,metric,model,value
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,zero_model,2.841
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,seasonal_naive,1.012
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,auto_arima,0.874
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,auto_ets,0.891
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,auto_lgbm,0.782
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,chronos,0.643
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,moirai,0.701
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| 9 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,mase,timesfm,0.668
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| 10 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.421
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| 11 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,seasonal_naive,0.183
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,auto_arima,0.142
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| 13 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.149
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| 14 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,auto_lgbm,0.121
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| 15 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,chronos,0.089
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| 16 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,moirai,0.098
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,timesfm,0.093
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,zero_model,2.793
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,seasonal_naive,1.034
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,auto_arima,0.862
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,auto_ets,0.879
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,auto_lgbm,0.801
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,chronos,0.651
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,moirai,0.694
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,mase,timesfm,0.672
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.415
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,seasonal_naive,0.187
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,auto_arima,0.139
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| 29 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.146
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| 30 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,auto_lgbm,0.125
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| 31 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,chronos,0.091
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| 32 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,moirai,0.096
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,timesfm,0.094
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,zero_model,2.867
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,seasonal_naive,0.987
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,auto_arima,0.851
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,auto_ets,0.870
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| 38 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,auto_lgbm,0.769
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,chronos,0.634
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,moirai,0.687
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,mase,timesfm,0.659
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.428
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,seasonal_naive,0.178
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,auto_arima,0.136
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.143
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,auto_lgbm,0.118
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,chronos,0.086
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| 48 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,moirai,0.094
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| 49 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,timesfm,0.090
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,zero_model,2.912
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-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,seasonal_naive,1.005
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| 52 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,auto_arima,0.883
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| 53 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,auto_ets,0.898
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| 54 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,auto_lgbm,0.793
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| 55 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,chronos,0.657
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| 56 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,moirai,0.712
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| 57 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,mase,timesfm,0.681
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| 58 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.434
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| 59 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,seasonal_naive,0.185
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| 60 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,auto_arima,0.145
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| 61 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.151
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| 62 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,auto_lgbm,0.128
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| 63 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,chronos,0.092
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| 64 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,moirai,0.101
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| 65 |
-
gh-archive,stars,daily,2026-01-29,scaled_crps,timesfm,0.096
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| 66 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,zero_model,3.214
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| 67 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,seasonal_naive,1.087
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| 68 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,auto_arima,0.952
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| 69 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,auto_ets,0.971
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| 70 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,auto_lgbm,0.845
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| 71 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,chronos,0.712
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| 72 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,moirai,0.768
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| 73 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,mase,timesfm,0.734
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| 74 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.478
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| 75 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,seasonal_naive,0.201
|
| 76 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,auto_arima,0.162
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| 77 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.168
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| 78 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,auto_lgbm,0.139
|
| 79 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,chronos,0.104
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| 80 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,moirai,0.115
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| 81 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-08,scaled_crps,timesfm,0.108
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| 82 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,zero_model,3.178
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| 83 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,seasonal_naive,1.065
|
| 84 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,auto_arima,0.941
|
| 85 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,auto_ets,0.958
|
| 86 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,auto_lgbm,0.861
|
| 87 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,chronos,0.723
|
| 88 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,moirai,0.751
|
| 89 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,mase,timesfm,0.729
|
| 90 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.471
|
| 91 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,seasonal_naive,0.196
|
| 92 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,auto_arima,0.158
|
| 93 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.164
|
| 94 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,auto_lgbm,0.142
|
| 95 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,chronos,0.107
|
| 96 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,moirai,0.112
|
| 97 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-15,scaled_crps,timesfm,0.105
|
| 98 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,zero_model,3.251
|
| 99 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,seasonal_naive,1.098
|
| 100 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,auto_arima,0.963
|
| 101 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,auto_ets,0.982
|
| 102 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,auto_lgbm,0.837
|
| 103 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,chronos,0.698
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| 104 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,moirai,0.759
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| 105 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,mase,timesfm,0.721
|
| 106 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.483
|
| 107 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,seasonal_naive,0.205
|
| 108 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,auto_arima,0.165
|
| 109 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.171
|
| 110 |
-
gh-archive,prs_opened,daily,2026-01-22,scaled_crps,auto_lgbm,0.136
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gh-archive,stars,weekly,2026-01-26,mase,zero_model,2.549
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| 310 |
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| 319 |
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| 322 |
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| 327 |
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| 328 |
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| 329 |
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| 330 |
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| 331 |
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| 332 |
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| 333 |
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| 334 |
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|
| 339 |
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| 340 |
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|
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|
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|
| 343 |
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|
| 344 |
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|
| 346 |
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-12,mase,auto_lgbm,0.834
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,mase,auto_arima,0.932
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,mase,auto_ets,0.948
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,mase,auto_lgbm,0.821
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,mase,chronos,0.698
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,mase,moirai,0.745
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,scaled_crps,zero_model,0.461
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,scaled_crps,auto_ets,0.160
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gh-archive,issues_opened,weekly,2026-01-19,scaled_crps,chronos,0.097
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gh-archive,pushes,weekly,2026-01-19,mase,auto_lgbm,0.638
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pyproject.toml
CHANGED
|
@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ dependencies = [
|
|
| 8 |
"gradio>=6.5.1",
|
| 9 |
"matplotlib>=3.10.8",
|
| 10 |
"pandas>=3.0.0",
|
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|
| 11 |
]
|
| 12 |
|
| 13 |
[dependency-groups]
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
"gradio>=6.5.1",
|
| 9 |
"matplotlib>=3.10.8",
|
| 10 |
"pandas>=3.0.0",
|
| 11 |
+
"pyarrow>=19.0.0",
|
| 12 |
]
|
| 13 |
|
| 14 |
[dependency-groups]
|
rank_through_time.py
CHANGED
|
@@ -244,10 +244,12 @@ def plot_value_for_subdataset(df, metric, subdataset):
|
|
| 244 |
# ββ CLI: save all figures to disk ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
|
| 245 |
|
| 246 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 247 |
OUT = pathlib.Path("figures/rank_through_time")
|
| 248 |
OUT.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
| 249 |
|
| 250 |
-
raw =
|
| 251 |
raw = raw[raw["model"] != "zero_model"]
|
| 252 |
metrics = sorted(raw["metric"].unique())
|
| 253 |
|
|
|
|
| 244 |
# ββ CLI: save all figures to disk ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
|
| 245 |
|
| 246 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 247 |
+
from data import load_data
|
| 248 |
+
|
| 249 |
OUT = pathlib.Path("figures/rank_through_time")
|
| 250 |
OUT.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
| 251 |
|
| 252 |
+
raw = load_data()
|
| 253 |
raw = raw[raw["model"] != "zero_model"]
|
| 254 |
metrics = sorted(raw["metric"].unique())
|
| 255 |
|
requirements.txt
CHANGED
|
@@ -3,3 +3,4 @@
|
|
| 3 |
gradio>=6.5.1
|
| 4 |
matplotlib>=3.10.8
|
| 5 |
pandas>=3.0.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
gradio>=6.5.1
|
| 4 |
matplotlib>=3.10.8
|
| 5 |
pandas>=3.0.0
|
| 6 |
+
pyarrow>=19.0.0
|