Update app.py
Browse files
app.py
CHANGED
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import os, io, math, time, warnings
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warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
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from typing import List, Tuple, Dict, Optional
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@@ -8,38 +7,57 @@ import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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from PIL import Image
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import requests
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import yfinance as yf
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import gradio as gr
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DATA_DIR = "data"
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os.makedirs(DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
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MAX_TICKERS = 30
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# Globals that update with horizon changes
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HORIZON_YEARS = 10
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RF_CODE = "DGS10"
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RF_ANN = 0.0375 # updated at launch
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# ---------------- helpers ----------------
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def fred_series_for_horizon(years: float) -> str:
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# crude tenor map
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y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
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if y <= 7: return "DGS7"
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if y <= 10: return "DGS10"
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if y <= 20: return "DGS20"
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return "DGS30"
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def fetch_fred_yield_annual(code: str) -> float:
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url = f"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id={code}"
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try:
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r = requests.get(url, timeout=10)
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@@ -50,103 +68,104 @@ def fetch_fred_yield_annual(code: str) -> float:
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except Exception:
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return 0.03
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df
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actions=False,
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progress=False,
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group_by="column",
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threads=False,
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)
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# Normalize to wide frame of prices (one column per ticker)
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if isinstance(df, pd.Series):
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df = df.to_frame()
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if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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#
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else:
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#
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def monthly_returns(prices: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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return prices.pct_change().dropna()
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def yahoo_search(query: str):
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if not query or not str(query).strip():
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return []
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url = "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search"
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params = {"q": query.strip(), "quotesCount": 10, "newsCount": 0}
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headers = {"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"}
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try:
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r = requests.get(url, params=params, headers=headers, timeout=10)
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r.raise_for_status()
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data = r.json()
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out = []
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for q in data.get("quotes", []):
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sym = q.get("symbol")
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name = q.get("shortname") or q.get("longname") or ""
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exch = q.get("exchDisp") or ""
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if sym and sym.isascii():
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out.append(f"{sym} | {name} | {exch}")
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if not out:
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out = [f"{query.strip().upper()} | typed symbol | n/a"]
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return out[:10]
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except Exception:
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return [f"{query.strip().upper()} | typed symbol | n/a"]
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def validate_tickers(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> List[str]:
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px = fetch_prices_monthly(base + [MARKET_TICKER], years)
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ok = [
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return ok
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#
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def get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
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uniq = [c for c in dict.fromkeys(symbols)
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rets = monthly_returns(px)
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cols = [c for c in uniq if c in rets.columns]
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R = rets[cols].dropna(how="any")
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return R.loc[:, ~R.columns.duplicated()]
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def estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols: List[str], years: int, rf_ann: float):
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R = get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols, years)
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if MARKET_TICKER not in R.columns or
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raise ValueError("Not enough aligned data
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rf_m = rf_ann / 12.0
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m = R[MARKET_TICKER]
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if isinstance(m, pd.DataFrame):
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m = m.iloc[:, 0].squeeze()
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mu_m_ann
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sigma_m_ann = float(m.std(ddof=1)
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erp_ann
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ex_m = m - rf_m
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var_m = float(np.var(ex_m.values, ddof=1))
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cov_sm = float(np.cov(ex_s.values, ex_m.values, ddof=1)[0, 1])
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betas[s] = cov_sm / var_m
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betas[MARKET_TICKER] = 1.0
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asset_cols = [c for c in R.columns if c != MARKET_TICKER]
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cov_m = np.cov(R[asset_cols].values.T, ddof=1) if asset_cols else np.zeros((0, 0))
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return 0.0, rf_ann, 0.0
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w_expo = w / gross
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beta_p = float(np.dot([betas.get(t, 0.0) for t in tickers], w_expo))
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cov = cov_ann.reindex(index=tickers, columns=tickers).fillna(0.0).to_numpy()
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return beta_p,
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def efficient_same_sigma(sigma_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
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if sigma_mkt <= 1e-12:
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return 0.0, 1.0, rf_ann
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a = sigma_target / sigma_mkt
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return a, 1.0 - a, rf_ann + a * erp_ann
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def efficient_same_return(mu_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
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if abs(erp_ann) <= 1e-12:
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return 0.0, 1.0,
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a = (mu_target - rf_ann) / erp_ann
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return a, 1.0 - a, abs(a) * sigma_mkt
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cml = rf_ann + (erp_ann / max(sigma_mkt, 1e-9)) * xs
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plt.scatter([
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plt.scatter([_pct(sigma_mkt)], [_pct(rf_ann + erp_ann)], label="Market")
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plt.scatter([_pct(sigma_capm)], [_pct(mu_capm)], label="Your CAPM point", marker="o")
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plt.xlabel("σ (
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plt.ylabel("
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plt.legend(loc="best")
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plt.tight_layout()
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buf = io.BytesIO()
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buf.seek(0)
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return Image.open(buf)
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rows = []
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for i in range(n_rows):
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k =
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picks = list(rng.choice(
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# CAPM sigma on CML for same expected return
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sigma_capm = abs(beta_p) * sigma_mkt
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rows.append({
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"tickers": ",".join(picks),
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"weights": ",".join(f"{x:.6f}" for x in
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"beta":
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"sigma_capm": sigma_capm
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})
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if pick.empty:
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pick = df.copy()
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pick = pick.sort_values("mu_capm", ascending=False).head(3).reset_index(drop=True)
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pick.insert(0, "pick", [1, 2, 3][: len(pick)])
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return pick
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# -------------- optional: embeddings rerank --------------
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def rerank_with_embeddings(top3: pd.DataFrame, band: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
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try:
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"low": "low risk conservative portfolio stable diversified market exposure",
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"medium": "balanced medium risk diversified portfolio",
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"high": "high risk growth aggressive portfolio higher expected return"
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}[(band or "medium").lower() if (band or "medium").lower() in {"low","medium","high"} else "medium"]
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cand_texts = []
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for _, r in top3.iterrows():
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cand_texts.append(
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f"portfolio with tickers {r['tickers']} having beta {float(r['beta']):.2f}, "
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f"expected return {float(r['mu_capm']):.3f}, sigma {float(r['sigma_capm']):.3f}"
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q = model.encode([prompt])
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c = model.encode(cand_texts)
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# cosine similarity
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sims = (q @ c.T) / (np.linalg.norm(q) * np.linalg.norm(c, axis=1, keepdims=False))
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order = np.argsort(-sims.ravel())
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return top3.iloc[order].reset_index(drop=True)
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except Exception:
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return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ticker", "weight_%", "amount_$"])
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HORIZON_YEARS = y
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RF_CODE = code
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RF_ANN = rf
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return f"Risk-free series {code}. Latest annual rate {rf:.2%}."
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def
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note = "Select a symbol and click 'Add selected to portfolio'." if opts else "No matches."
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return note, gr.update(choices=opts, value=None)
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current = []
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if
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current = [str(x).upper() for x in table["ticker"].tolist() if str(x) != "nan"]
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tickers = current if symbol in current else current + [symbol]
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val = validate_tickers(tickers, years=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS)
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tickers = [t for t in tickers if t in val]
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amt_map = {}
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for _, r in table.iterrows():
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t = str(r.get("ticker", "")).upper()
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if t in tickers:
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amt_map[t] = float(pd.to_numeric(r.get("amount_usd", 0.0), errors="coerce") or 0.0)
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new_table = pd.DataFrame({"ticker": tickers, "amount_usd": [amt_map.get(t, 0.0) for t in tickers]})
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if len(new_table) > MAX_TICKERS:
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new_table = new_table.iloc[:MAX_TICKERS]
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return new_table,
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def lock_ticker_column(tb:
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return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ticker", "amount_usd"])
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tickers = [str(x).upper() for x in tb["ticker"].tolist()]
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amounts = pd.to_numeric(tb["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0).tolist()
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amounts = amounts[:len(tickers)] + [0.0] * max(0, len(tickers) - len(amounts))
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return pd.DataFrame({"ticker": tickers, "amount_usd": amounts})
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| 391 |
df["ticker"] = df["ticker"].astype(str).str.upper().str.strip()
|
| 392 |
df["amount_usd"] = pd.to_numeric(df["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0)
|
| 393 |
|
| 394 |
symbols = [t for t in df["ticker"].tolist() if t]
|
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| 395 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 396 |
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return None, "
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| 405 |
df = df[df["ticker"].isin(symbols)].copy()
|
| 406 |
amounts = {r["ticker"]: float(r["amount_usd"]) for _, r in df.iterrows()}
|
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| 411 |
betas, covA, erp_ann, sigma_mkt = moms["betas"], moms["cov_ann"], moms["erp_ann"], moms["sigma_m_ann"]
|
| 412 |
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| 413 |
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#
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)
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| 470 |
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|
| 471 |
-
"### Inputs",
|
| 472 |
-
f"- Lookback years {years_lookback}",
|
| 473 |
-
f"- Horizon years {int(round(HORIZON_YEARS))}",
|
| 474 |
-
f"- Risk-free {rf_ann:.2%} from {RF_CODE}",
|
| 475 |
-
f"- Market ERP {erp_ann:.2%}",
|
| 476 |
-
f"- Market σ {sigma_mkt:.2%}",
|
| 477 |
-
"",
|
| 478 |
-
"### Your portfolio (CAPM)",
|
| 479 |
-
f"- Beta {beta_p:.2f}",
|
| 480 |
-
f"- Expected return (CAPM / SML) {mu_capm:.2%}",
|
| 481 |
-
f"- on CML for your beta (|β|×σ_mkt) {sigma_capm:.2%}",
|
| 482 |
-
"",
|
| 483 |
-
"### Efficient alternatives on CML",
|
| 484 |
-
f"- Same σ as your portfolio (historical): Market weight {a_sigma:.2f}, Bills weight {b_sigma:.2f}, return {mu_eff_sigma:.2%}",
|
| 485 |
-
f"- Same return (CAPM): Market weight {a_mu:.2f}, Bills weight {b_mu:.2f}, σ {sigma_eff_mu:.2%}",
|
| 486 |
-
"",
|
| 487 |
-
"### Dataset-based suggestions (risk: " + risk_band + ")",
|
| 488 |
-
f"- Use the carousel to flip between **Pick #1 / #2 / #3**.",
|
| 489 |
-
f"- Showing Pick **#{idx+1}** → CAPM return {sugg_mu:.2%}, CAPM σ {sugg_sigma:.2%}",
|
| 490 |
-
"",
|
| 491 |
-
"_Plot shows CAPM expectations on the CML (not historical means)._"
|
| 492 |
-
])
|
| 493 |
-
|
| 494 |
-
uni_msg = f"Universe set to: {', '.join(UNIVERSE)}"
|
| 495 |
-
return img, info, uni_msg, pos_table, sugg_table, csv_path, gr.update(label=f"Pick #{idx+1} of 3")
|
| 496 |
-
|
| 497 |
-
# -------------- UI --------------
|
| 498 |
-
def inc_pick(i: int): return min(3, max(1, int(i or 1) + 1))
|
| 499 |
-
def dec_pick(i: int): return max(1, min(3, int(i or 1) - 1))
|
| 500 |
-
|
| 501 |
-
with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
| 502 |
-
gr.Markdown(
|
| 503 |
-
"## Efficient Portfolio Advisor\n"
|
| 504 |
-
"Search symbols, enter **dollar amounts**, set horizon. Returns use Yahoo Finance monthly data; risk-free from FRED. "
|
| 505 |
-
"Plot shows **CAPM point on the CML** plus efficient CML points."
|
| 506 |
-
)
|
| 507 |
-
|
| 508 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 509 |
-
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 510 |
-
q = gr.Textbox(label="Search symbol")
|
| 511 |
-
search_note = gr.Markdown()
|
| 512 |
-
matches = gr.Dropdown(choices=[], label="Matches")
|
| 513 |
-
search_btn = gr.Button("Search")
|
| 514 |
-
add_btn = gr.Button("Add selected to portfolio")
|
| 515 |
-
|
| 516 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Portfolio positions (enter $ amounts; negatives allowed for shorts)")
|
| 517 |
-
table = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 518 |
-
headers=["ticker", "amount_usd"],
|
| 519 |
-
datatype=["str", "number"],
|
| 520 |
-
row_count=0,
|
| 521 |
-
col_count=(2, "fixed")
|
| 522 |
-
)
|
| 523 |
-
|
| 524 |
-
horizon = gr.Number(label="Horizon in years (1–100)", value=HORIZON_YEARS, precision=0)
|
| 525 |
-
lookback = gr.Slider(1, 15, value=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS, step=1, label="Lookback years for betas & covariances")
|
| 526 |
-
|
| 527 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Suggestions")
|
| 528 |
-
risk_band = gr.Radio(["Low", "Medium", "High"], value="Medium", label="Risk tolerance")
|
| 529 |
-
use_emb = gr.Checkbox(value=True, label="Use finance embeddings to refine picks")
|
| 530 |
-
|
| 531 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 532 |
-
prev_btn = gr.Button("◀ Prev")
|
| 533 |
-
pick_idx = gr.Number(value=1, precision=0, label="Carousel")
|
| 534 |
-
next_btn = gr.Button("Next ▶")
|
| 535 |
-
|
| 536 |
-
run_btn = gr.Button("Compute (build dataset & suggest)")
|
| 537 |
-
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 538 |
-
plot = gr.Image(label="Capital Market Line (CAPM)", type="pil")
|
| 539 |
-
summary = gr.Markdown(label="Inputs & Results")
|
| 540 |
-
universe_msg = gr.Textbox(label="Universe status", interactive=False)
|
| 541 |
-
positions = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 542 |
-
label="Computed positions",
|
| 543 |
-
headers=["ticker", "amount_usd", "weight_exposure", "beta"],
|
| 544 |
-
datatype=["str", "number", "number", "number"],
|
| 545 |
-
col_count=(4, "fixed"),
|
| 546 |
-
value=empty_positions_df(),
|
| 547 |
-
interactive=False
|
| 548 |
-
)
|
| 549 |
-
sugg_table = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 550 |
-
label="Selected suggestion (carousel) — holdings shown in % and $",
|
| 551 |
-
headers=["ticker", "weight_%", "amount_$"],
|
| 552 |
-
datatype=["str", "number", "number"],
|
| 553 |
-
col_count=(3, "fixed"),
|
| 554 |
-
value=empty_suggestion_df(),
|
| 555 |
-
interactive=False
|
| 556 |
-
)
|
| 557 |
-
dl = gr.File(label="Generated dataset CSV", value=None, visible=True)
|
| 558 |
-
|
| 559 |
-
# wire search / add / locking / horizon
|
| 560 |
-
search_btn.click(fn=search_tickers_cb, inputs=q, outputs=[search_note, matches])
|
| 561 |
-
add_btn.click(fn=add_symbol, inputs=[matches, table], outputs=[table, search_note])
|
| 562 |
-
table.change(fn=lock_ticker_column, inputs=table, outputs=table)
|
| 563 |
-
horizon.change(fn=set_horizon, inputs=horizon, outputs=universe_msg)
|
| 564 |
-
|
| 565 |
-
# carousel buttons update pick index and then recompute
|
| 566 |
-
prev_btn.click(fn=dec_pick, inputs=pick_idx, outputs=pick_idx).then(
|
| 567 |
-
fn=compute,
|
| 568 |
-
inputs=[lookback, table, risk_band, use_emb, pick_idx],
|
| 569 |
-
outputs=[plot, summary, universe_msg, positions, sugg_table, dl, pick_idx]
|
| 570 |
-
)
|
| 571 |
-
next_btn.click(fn=inc_pick, inputs=pick_idx, outputs=pick_idx).then(
|
| 572 |
-
fn=compute,
|
| 573 |
-
inputs=[lookback, table, risk_band, use_emb, pick_idx],
|
| 574 |
-
outputs=[plot, summary, universe_msg, positions, sugg_table, dl, pick_idx]
|
| 575 |
-
)
|
| 576 |
|
| 577 |
-
#
|
| 578 |
-
|
| 579 |
-
|
| 580 |
-
|
| 581 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 582 |
)
|
| 583 |
|
| 584 |
-
#
|
| 585 |
-
|
| 586 |
-
|
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|
| 587 |
|
| 588 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 589 |
demo.launch()
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
import os, io, math, json, warnings
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
|
| 3 |
|
| 4 |
from typing import List, Tuple, Dict, Optional
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
import pandas as pd
|
| 8 |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 9 |
from PIL import Image
|
| 10 |
+
import gradio as gr
|
| 11 |
import requests
|
| 12 |
import yfinance as yf
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
|
| 14 |
+
from sentence_transformers import SentenceTransformer, util as st_util
|
| 15 |
+
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
|
| 16 |
+
from sklearn.neighbors import KNeighborsRegressor
|
| 17 |
+
|
| 18 |
+
# =========================
|
| 19 |
+
# Config
|
| 20 |
+
# =========================
|
| 21 |
DATA_DIR = "data"
|
| 22 |
os.makedirs(DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
|
| 23 |
|
| 24 |
+
DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS = 5
|
| 25 |
MAX_TICKERS = 30
|
| 26 |
+
MARKET_TICKER = "VOO" # proxy for market portfolio
|
| 27 |
+
BILLS_TICKER = "BILLS" # synthetic cash / T-Bills bucket
|
| 28 |
+
|
| 29 |
+
EMBED_MODEL_NAME = "BAAI/bge-base-en-v1.5" # fully local, no API keys
|
| 30 |
+
|
| 31 |
+
POS_COLS = ["ticker", "amount_usd", "weight_exposure", "beta"]
|
| 32 |
+
SUG_COLS = ["ticker", "weight_%", "amount_$"]
|
| 33 |
+
EFF_COLS = ["asset", "weight_%", "amount_$"]
|
| 34 |
+
|
| 35 |
+
N_SYNTH = 1000 # size of synthetic dataset per run
|
| 36 |
+
MMR_K = 40 # shortlist size before MMR
|
| 37 |
+
MMR_LAMBDA = 0.65 # similarity vs diversity tradeoff
|
| 38 |
+
|
| 39 |
+
# ---------------- FRED mapping (risk-free source) ----------------
|
| 40 |
+
FRED_MAP = [
|
| 41 |
+
(1, "DGS1"),
|
| 42 |
+
(2, "DGS2"),
|
| 43 |
+
(3, "DGS3"),
|
| 44 |
+
(5, "DGS5"),
|
| 45 |
+
(7, "DGS7"),
|
| 46 |
+
(10, "DGS10"),
|
| 47 |
+
(20, "DGS20"),
|
| 48 |
+
(30, "DGS30"),
|
| 49 |
+
(100, "DGS30"),
|
| 50 |
+
]
|
| 51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 52 |
def fred_series_for_horizon(years: float) -> str:
|
|
|
|
| 53 |
y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
|
| 54 |
+
for cutoff, code in FRED_MAP:
|
| 55 |
+
if y <= cutoff:
|
| 56 |
+
return code
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 57 |
return "DGS30"
|
| 58 |
|
| 59 |
def fetch_fred_yield_annual(code: str) -> float:
|
| 60 |
+
# FRED CSV endpoint (no API key required). Fallback to 3% if it fails.
|
| 61 |
url = f"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id={code}"
|
| 62 |
try:
|
| 63 |
r = requests.get(url, timeout=10)
|
|
|
|
| 68 |
except Exception:
|
| 69 |
return 0.03
|
| 70 |
|
| 71 |
+
# =========================
|
| 72 |
+
# Data helpers
|
| 73 |
+
# =========================
|
| 74 |
+
def _to_cols_close(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 75 |
+
"""Coerce yfinance download to a single-level columns DataFrame of adjusted closes."""
|
| 76 |
+
if df is None or df.empty:
|
| 77 |
+
return pd.DataFrame()
|
| 78 |
+
# yfinance returns:
|
| 79 |
+
# - Series if single ticker;
|
| 80 |
+
# - DataFrame w/ single-level columns if single ticker but group_by==None;
|
| 81 |
+
# - MultiIndex columns (ticker -> field) if multiple tickers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 82 |
if isinstance(df, pd.Series):
|
| 83 |
+
df = df.to_frame("Close")
|
| 84 |
if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
|
| 85 |
+
# Prefer "Adj Close" if available, else "Close"
|
| 86 |
+
level0 = df.columns.get_level_values(0).unique().tolist()
|
| 87 |
+
fields = df.columns.get_level_values(1).unique().tolist()
|
| 88 |
+
field = "Adj Close" if "Adj Close" in fields else ("Close" if "Close" in fields else fields[0])
|
| 89 |
+
out = {}
|
| 90 |
+
for t in level0:
|
| 91 |
+
col = (t, field)
|
| 92 |
+
if col in df.columns:
|
| 93 |
+
out[t] = df[col]
|
| 94 |
+
out_df = pd.DataFrame(out)
|
| 95 |
+
return out_df
|
| 96 |
else:
|
| 97 |
+
# Single ticker. Column could be "Close" already.
|
| 98 |
+
if "Adj Close" in df.columns:
|
| 99 |
+
return df[["Adj Close"]].rename(columns={"Adj Close": "SINGLE"})
|
| 100 |
+
if "Close" in df.columns:
|
| 101 |
+
return df[["Close"]].rename(columns={"Close": "SINGLE"})
|
| 102 |
+
# Fallback: use first numeric column
|
| 103 |
+
num_cols = [c for c in df.columns if pd.api.types.is_numeric_dtype(df[c])]
|
| 104 |
+
if num_cols:
|
| 105 |
+
return df[[num_cols[0]]].rename(columns={num_cols[0]: "SINGLE"})
|
| 106 |
+
return pd.DataFrame()
|
| 107 |
|
| 108 |
+
def fetch_prices_monthly(tickers: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 109 |
+
start = (pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC") - pd.DateOffset(years=int(years), days=7)).date()
|
| 110 |
+
end = pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC").date()
|
| 111 |
+
df_raw = yf.download(
|
| 112 |
+
list(dict.fromkeys(tickers)),
|
| 113 |
+
start=start, end=end,
|
| 114 |
+
interval="1mo", auto_adjust=True, progress=False, group_by="ticker",
|
| 115 |
+
threads=True,
|
| 116 |
+
)
|
| 117 |
+
df = _to_cols_close(df_raw).copy()
|
| 118 |
+
if df.empty:
|
| 119 |
+
return df
|
| 120 |
+
# If single series, rename to the single ticker name
|
| 121 |
+
if df.shape[1] == 1 and "SINGLE" in df.columns:
|
| 122 |
+
df.columns = [tickers[0]]
|
| 123 |
+
df = df.dropna(how="all").fillna(method="ffill")
|
| 124 |
+
return df
|
| 125 |
|
| 126 |
def monthly_returns(prices: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 127 |
return prices.pct_change().dropna()
|
| 128 |
|
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|
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|
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|
| 129 |
def validate_tickers(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> List[str]:
|
| 130 |
+
"""Return subset of symbols that have enough data over lookback."""
|
| 131 |
+
symbols = [s.strip().upper() for s in symbols if s and isinstance(s, str)]
|
| 132 |
+
base = [s for s in symbols if s != MARKET_TICKER]
|
| 133 |
px = fetch_prices_monthly(base + [MARKET_TICKER], years)
|
| 134 |
+
ok = []
|
| 135 |
+
for s in symbols:
|
| 136 |
+
if s in px.columns:
|
| 137 |
+
ok.append(s)
|
| 138 |
return ok
|
| 139 |
|
| 140 |
+
# =========================
|
| 141 |
+
# Moments & CAPM
|
| 142 |
+
# =========================
|
| 143 |
+
def annualize_mean(m): return np.asarray(m, dtype=float) * 12.0
|
| 144 |
+
def annualize_sigma(s): return np.asarray(s, dtype=float) * math.sqrt(12.0)
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
def get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 147 |
+
uniq = [c for c in dict.fromkeys(symbols)]
|
| 148 |
+
if MARKET_TICKER not in uniq:
|
| 149 |
+
uniq.append(MARKET_TICKER)
|
| 150 |
+
px = fetch_prices_monthly(uniq, years)
|
| 151 |
rets = monthly_returns(px)
|
| 152 |
+
cols = [c for c in uniq if c in rets.columns]
|
| 153 |
R = rets[cols].dropna(how="any")
|
| 154 |
return R.loc[:, ~R.columns.duplicated()]
|
| 155 |
|
| 156 |
def estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols: List[str], years: int, rf_ann: float):
|
| 157 |
+
R = get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols + [MARKET_TICKER], years)
|
| 158 |
+
if MARKET_TICKER not in R.columns or R.shape[0] < 3:
|
| 159 |
+
raise ValueError("Not enough aligned data to estimate moments.")
|
| 160 |
rf_m = rf_ann / 12.0
|
| 161 |
|
| 162 |
m = R[MARKET_TICKER]
|
| 163 |
if isinstance(m, pd.DataFrame):
|
| 164 |
m = m.iloc[:, 0].squeeze()
|
| 165 |
|
| 166 |
+
mu_m_ann = float(annualize_mean(m.mean()))
|
| 167 |
+
sigma_m_ann = float(annualize_sigma(m.std(ddof=1)))
|
| 168 |
+
erp_ann = float(mu_m_ann - rf_ann)
|
| 169 |
|
| 170 |
ex_m = m - rf_m
|
| 171 |
var_m = float(np.var(ex_m.values, ddof=1))
|
|
|
|
| 177 |
cov_sm = float(np.cov(ex_s.values, ex_m.values, ddof=1)[0, 1])
|
| 178 |
betas[s] = cov_sm / var_m
|
| 179 |
|
| 180 |
+
betas[MARKET_TICKER] = 1.0 # by definition
|
| 181 |
|
| 182 |
asset_cols = [c for c in R.columns if c != MARKET_TICKER]
|
| 183 |
cov_m = np.cov(R[asset_cols].values.T, ddof=1) if asset_cols else np.zeros((0, 0))
|
|
|
|
| 200 |
return 0.0, rf_ann, 0.0
|
| 201 |
w_expo = w / gross
|
| 202 |
beta_p = float(np.dot([betas.get(t, 0.0) for t in tickers], w_expo))
|
| 203 |
+
er_capm = capm_er(beta_p, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
| 204 |
cov = cov_ann.reindex(index=tickers, columns=tickers).fillna(0.0).to_numpy()
|
| 205 |
+
sigma_p = math.sqrt(max(float(w_expo.T @ cov @ w_expo), 0.0))
|
| 206 |
+
return beta_p, er_capm, sigma_p
|
| 207 |
|
| 208 |
+
# =========================
|
| 209 |
+
# Efficient (CML) alternatives
|
| 210 |
+
# =========================
|
| 211 |
def efficient_same_sigma(sigma_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
|
| 212 |
+
"""Weights (a on Market, b on Bills) and expected return on CML with same sigma."""
|
| 213 |
if sigma_mkt <= 1e-12:
|
| 214 |
return 0.0, 1.0, rf_ann
|
| 215 |
a = sigma_target / sigma_mkt
|
| 216 |
return a, 1.0 - a, rf_ann + a * erp_ann
|
| 217 |
|
| 218 |
def efficient_same_return(mu_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
|
| 219 |
+
"""Weights (a on Market, b on Bills) and sigma on CML with same expected return."""
|
| 220 |
if abs(erp_ann) <= 1e-12:
|
| 221 |
+
return 0.0, 1.0, 0.0
|
| 222 |
a = (mu_target - rf_ann) / erp_ann
|
| 223 |
return a, 1.0 - a, abs(a) * sigma_mkt
|
| 224 |
|
| 225 |
+
# =========================
|
| 226 |
+
# Plot
|
| 227 |
+
# =========================
|
| 228 |
+
def _pct_arr(x):
|
| 229 |
+
x = np.asarray(x, dtype=float)
|
| 230 |
+
return x * 100.0
|
| 231 |
+
|
| 232 |
+
def plot_cml(
|
| 233 |
+
rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 234 |
+
pt_sigma_hist, pt_mu_capm,
|
| 235 |
+
same_sigma_sigma, same_sigma_mu,
|
| 236 |
+
same_mu_sigma, same_mu_mu,
|
| 237 |
+
) -> Image.Image:
|
| 238 |
+
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(6.6, 4.4), dpi=130)
|
| 239 |
+
|
| 240 |
+
xmax = max(
|
| 241 |
+
0.3,
|
| 242 |
+
sigma_mkt * 2.0,
|
| 243 |
+
pt_sigma_hist * 1.4,
|
| 244 |
+
same_mu_sigma * 1.4,
|
| 245 |
+
same_sigma_sigma * 1.4,
|
| 246 |
+
)
|
| 247 |
+
|
| 248 |
+
xs = np.linspace(0, xmax, 160)
|
| 249 |
+
slope = erp_ann / max(sigma_mkt, 1e-12)
|
| 250 |
+
cml = rf_ann + slope * xs
|
| 251 |
|
| 252 |
+
plt.plot(_pct_arr(xs), _pct_arr(cml), label="CML via VOO", linewidth=1.8)
|
| 253 |
+
plt.scatter([0.0], [_pct_arr(rf_ann)], label="Risk-free", zorder=5)
|
| 254 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct_arr(sigma_mkt)], [_pct_arr(rf_ann + erp_ann)], label="Market (VOO)", zorder=5)
|
| 255 |
|
| 256 |
+
# Your portfolio point uses CAPM expected return + historical sigma
|
| 257 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct_arr(pt_sigma_hist)], [_pct_arr(pt_mu_capm)], label="Your portfolio (CAPM)", zorder=6)
|
|
|
|
| 258 |
|
| 259 |
+
# Efficient matches
|
| 260 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct_arr(same_sigma_sigma)], [_pct_arr(same_sigma_mu)], label="Efficient: same σ", zorder=5)
|
| 261 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct_arr(same_mu_sigma)], [_pct_arr(same_mu_mu)], label="Efficient: same μ", zorder=5)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 262 |
|
| 263 |
+
# helper guides
|
| 264 |
+
plt.plot([_pct_arr(pt_sigma_hist), _pct_arr(same_sigma_sigma)],
|
| 265 |
+
[_pct_arr(pt_mu_capm), _pct_arr(same_sigma_mu)],
|
| 266 |
+
ls="--", lw=1.1, alpha=0.7, color="gray")
|
| 267 |
+
plt.plot([_pct_arr(pt_sigma_hist), _pct_arr(same_mu_sigma)],
|
| 268 |
+
[_pct_arr(pt_mu_capm), _pct_arr(same_mu_mu)],
|
| 269 |
+
ls="--", lw=1.1, alpha=0.7, color="gray")
|
| 270 |
|
| 271 |
+
plt.xlabel("σ (annual, %)")
|
| 272 |
+
plt.ylabel("E[return] (annual, %)")
|
| 273 |
+
plt.legend(loc="best", fontsize=8)
|
| 274 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 275 |
|
| 276 |
buf = io.BytesIO()
|
|
|
|
| 279 |
buf.seek(0)
|
| 280 |
return Image.open(buf)
|
| 281 |
|
| 282 |
+
# =========================
|
| 283 |
+
# Synthetic dataset (for recommendations)
|
| 284 |
+
# =========================
|
| 285 |
+
def dirichlet_signed(k, rng):
|
| 286 |
+
signs = rng.choice([-1.0, 1.0], size=k, p=[0.25, 0.75])
|
| 287 |
+
raw = rng.dirichlet(np.ones(k))
|
| 288 |
+
gross = 1.0 + float(rng.gamma(2.0, 0.5))
|
| 289 |
+
return gross * signs * raw
|
| 290 |
+
|
| 291 |
+
def build_synth_dataset(universe: List[str],
|
| 292 |
+
cov_ann: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 293 |
+
betas: Dict[str, float],
|
| 294 |
+
rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float,
|
| 295 |
+
n_rows: int = N_SYNTH,
|
| 296 |
+
seed: int = 123) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 297 |
+
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
|
| 298 |
+
U = [u for u in universe if u != MARKET_TICKER] + [MARKET_TICKER]
|
| 299 |
rows = []
|
| 300 |
for i in range(n_rows):
|
| 301 |
+
k = rng.integers(low=min(2, len(U)), high=min(8, len(U)) + 1)
|
| 302 |
+
picks = list(rng.choice(U, size=k, replace=False))
|
| 303 |
+
w = dirichlet_signed(k, rng) # exposure weights (can include short)
|
| 304 |
+
gross = float(np.sum(np.abs(w)))
|
| 305 |
+
if gross <= 1e-12:
|
| 306 |
+
continue
|
| 307 |
+
w_expo = w / gross
|
| 308 |
+
weights = {picks[j]: float(w_expo[j]) for j in range(k)}
|
| 309 |
+
beta_i, er_capm_i, sigma_i = portfolio_stats(weights, cov_ann, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 310 |
rows.append({
|
| 311 |
+
"id": int(i),
|
| 312 |
"tickers": ",".join(picks),
|
| 313 |
+
"weights": ",".join(f"{x:.6f}" for x in w_expo),
|
| 314 |
+
"beta": float(beta_i),
|
| 315 |
+
"er_capm": float(er_capm_i),
|
| 316 |
+
"sigma": float(sigma_i),
|
|
|
|
| 317 |
})
|
| 318 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
|
| 319 |
+
return df
|
| 320 |
+
|
| 321 |
+
# =========================
|
| 322 |
+
# Embeddings + MMR selection
|
| 323 |
+
# =========================
|
| 324 |
+
_embedder = None
|
| 325 |
+
def get_embedder():
|
| 326 |
+
global _embedder
|
| 327 |
+
if _embedder is None:
|
| 328 |
+
_embedder = SentenceTransformer(EMBED_MODEL_NAME)
|
| 329 |
+
return _embedder
|
| 330 |
+
|
| 331 |
+
def row_to_sentence(row: pd.Series) -> str:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 332 |
try:
|
| 333 |
+
ts = row["tickers"].split(",")
|
| 334 |
+
ws = [float(x) for x in row["weights"].split(",")]
|
| 335 |
+
pairs = ", ".join([f"{ts[i]} {ws[i]:+.2f}" for i in range(min(len(ts), len(ws)))])
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 336 |
except Exception:
|
| 337 |
+
pairs = ""
|
| 338 |
+
return (f"portfolio with sigma {row['sigma']:.4f}, "
|
| 339 |
+
f"capm_return {row['er_capm']:.4f}, "
|
| 340 |
+
f"beta {row['beta']:.3f}, "
|
| 341 |
+
f"exposures {pairs}")
|
| 342 |
+
|
| 343 |
+
def mmr_select(query_emb: np.ndarray,
|
| 344 |
+
cand_embs: np.ndarray,
|
| 345 |
+
k: int = 3,
|
| 346 |
+
lambda_param: float = MMR_LAMBDA) -> List[int]:
|
| 347 |
+
"""
|
| 348 |
+
Maximal Marginal Relevance: pick k diverse-yet-relevant indices.
|
| 349 |
+
"""
|
| 350 |
+
if cand_embs.shape[0] <= k:
|
| 351 |
+
return list(range(cand_embs.shape[0]))
|
| 352 |
+
sim_to_query = st_util.cos_sim(query_emb, cand_embs).cpu().numpy().reshape(-1)
|
| 353 |
+
chosen = []
|
| 354 |
+
candidate_indices = list(range(cand_embs.shape[0]))
|
| 355 |
+
# pick the most similar first
|
| 356 |
+
first = int(np.argmax(sim_to_query))
|
| 357 |
+
chosen.append(first)
|
| 358 |
+
candidate_indices.remove(first)
|
| 359 |
+
while len(chosen) < k and candidate_indices:
|
| 360 |
+
max_score = -1e9
|
| 361 |
+
max_idx = candidate_indices[0]
|
| 362 |
+
for idx in candidate_indices:
|
| 363 |
+
sim_q = sim_to_query[idx]
|
| 364 |
+
sim_d = max(st_util.cos_sim(cand_embs[idx], cand_embs[chosen]).cpu().numpy().reshape(-1))
|
| 365 |
+
mmr_score = lambda_param * sim_q - (1.0 - lambda_param) * sim_d
|
| 366 |
+
if mmr_score > max_score:
|
| 367 |
+
max_score = mmr_score
|
| 368 |
+
max_idx = idx
|
| 369 |
+
chosen.append(max_idx)
|
| 370 |
+
candidate_indices.remove(max_idx)
|
| 371 |
+
return chosen
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
# =========================
|
| 374 |
+
# Yahoo symbol search (for UX)
|
| 375 |
+
# =========================
|
| 376 |
+
def yahoo_search(query: str):
|
| 377 |
+
if not query or len(query.strip()) == 0:
|
| 378 |
+
return []
|
| 379 |
+
url = "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search"
|
| 380 |
+
params = {"q": query.strip(), "quotesCount": 10, "newsCount": 0}
|
| 381 |
+
headers = {"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"}
|
| 382 |
+
try:
|
| 383 |
+
r = requests.get(url, params=params, headers=headers, timeout=10)
|
| 384 |
+
r.raise_for_status()
|
| 385 |
+
data = r.json()
|
| 386 |
+
out = []
|
| 387 |
+
for q in data.get("quotes", []):
|
| 388 |
+
sym = q.get("symbol")
|
| 389 |
+
name = q.get("shortname") or q.get("longname") or ""
|
| 390 |
+
exch = q.get("exchDisp") or ""
|
| 391 |
+
if sym and sym.isascii():
|
| 392 |
+
out.append(f"{sym} | {name} | {exch}")
|
| 393 |
+
if not out:
|
| 394 |
+
out = [f"{query.strip().upper()} | typed symbol | n/a"]
|
| 395 |
+
return out[:10]
|
| 396 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 397 |
+
return [f"{query.strip().upper()} | typed symbol | n/a"]
|
| 398 |
|
| 399 |
+
_last_matches = [] # updated on each search
|
|
|
|
| 400 |
|
| 401 |
+
# =========================
|
| 402 |
+
# Formatting helpers
|
| 403 |
+
# =========================
|
| 404 |
+
def fmt_pct(x: float) -> str:
|
| 405 |
+
return f"{x*100:.2f}%"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 406 |
|
| 407 |
+
def fmt_money(x: float) -> str:
|
| 408 |
+
return f"${x:,.0f}"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 409 |
|
| 410 |
+
# =========================
|
| 411 |
+
# Gradio callbacks
|
| 412 |
+
# =========================
|
| 413 |
+
HORIZON_YEARS = 5.0
|
| 414 |
+
RF_CODE = fred_series_for_horizon(HORIZON_YEARS)
|
| 415 |
+
RF_ANN = fetch_fred_yield_annual(RF_CODE)
|
| 416 |
+
|
| 417 |
+
def do_search(query):
|
| 418 |
+
global _last_matches
|
| 419 |
+
_last_matches = yahoo_search(query)
|
| 420 |
+
note = "Select a symbol from Matches, then click Add."
|
| 421 |
+
return note, gr.update(choices=_last_matches, value=None)
|
| 422 |
+
|
| 423 |
+
def add_symbol(selection: str, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 424 |
+
# Parse symbol from the dropdown selection. If selection not in choices, try to extract ticker anyway.
|
| 425 |
+
if selection and " | " in selection:
|
| 426 |
+
symbol = selection.split(" | ")[0].strip().upper()
|
| 427 |
+
elif isinstance(selection, str) and selection.strip():
|
| 428 |
+
symbol = selection.strip().upper()
|
| 429 |
+
else:
|
| 430 |
+
return table, "Pick a row from Matches first."
|
| 431 |
|
| 432 |
current = []
|
| 433 |
+
if table is not None and len(table) > 0:
|
| 434 |
current = [str(x).upper() for x in table["ticker"].tolist() if str(x) != "nan"]
|
| 435 |
+
|
| 436 |
tickers = current if symbol in current else current + [symbol]
|
| 437 |
+
tickers = [t for t in tickers if t] # clean empties
|
| 438 |
|
| 439 |
+
# Validate using price availability
|
| 440 |
val = validate_tickers(tickers, years=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS)
|
| 441 |
tickers = [t for t in tickers if t in val]
|
| 442 |
+
# Keep existing amounts where available
|
| 443 |
amt_map = {}
|
| 444 |
+
if table is not None and len(table) > 0:
|
| 445 |
for _, r in table.iterrows():
|
| 446 |
t = str(r.get("ticker", "")).upper()
|
| 447 |
if t in tickers:
|
| 448 |
amt_map[t] = float(pd.to_numeric(r.get("amount_usd", 0.0), errors="coerce") or 0.0)
|
| 449 |
|
| 450 |
new_table = pd.DataFrame({"ticker": tickers, "amount_usd": [amt_map.get(t, 0.0) for t in tickers]})
|
| 451 |
+
msg = f"Added {symbol}" if symbol in tickers else f"{symbol} not valid or no data"
|
| 452 |
if len(new_table) > MAX_TICKERS:
|
| 453 |
new_table = new_table.iloc[:MAX_TICKERS]
|
| 454 |
+
msg = f"Reached max of {MAX_TICKERS}"
|
| 455 |
+
return new_table, msg
|
| 456 |
|
| 457 |
+
def lock_ticker_column(tb: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 458 |
+
if tb is None or len(tb) == 0:
|
| 459 |
return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ticker", "amount_usd"])
|
| 460 |
tickers = [str(x).upper() for x in tb["ticker"].tolist()]
|
| 461 |
amounts = pd.to_numeric(tb["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0).tolist()
|
|
|
|
| 464 |
amounts = amounts[:len(tickers)] + [0.0] * max(0, len(tickers) - len(amounts))
|
| 465 |
return pd.DataFrame({"ticker": tickers, "amount_usd": amounts})
|
| 466 |
|
| 467 |
+
def set_horizon(years: float):
|
| 468 |
+
y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
|
| 469 |
+
code = fred_series_for_horizon(y)
|
| 470 |
+
rf = fetch_fred_yield_annual(code)
|
| 471 |
+
global HORIZON_YEARS, RF_CODE, RF_ANN
|
| 472 |
+
HORIZON_YEARS = y
|
| 473 |
+
RF_CODE = code
|
| 474 |
+
RF_ANN = rf
|
| 475 |
+
return f"Risk-free series {code}. Latest annual rate {rf:.2%}. Computations will use this.", rf
|
| 476 |
+
|
| 477 |
+
def _table_from_weights(weights: Dict[str, float], gross_amt: float) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 478 |
+
items = []
|
| 479 |
+
for t, w in weights.items():
|
| 480 |
+
pct = float(w)
|
| 481 |
+
amt = float(w) * gross_amt
|
| 482 |
+
items.append({"ticker": t, "weight_%": round(pct * 100.0, 2), "amount_$": round(amt, 2)})
|
| 483 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame(items, columns=SUG_COLS)
|
| 484 |
+
# nice order by abs weight
|
| 485 |
+
df["absw"] = df["weight_%"].abs()
|
| 486 |
+
df = df.sort_values("absw", ascending=False).drop(columns=["absw"])
|
| 487 |
+
return df
|
| 488 |
+
|
| 489 |
+
def _weights_dict_from_row(r: pd.Series) -> Dict[str, float]:
|
| 490 |
+
ts = [t.strip().upper() for t in str(r["tickers"]).split(",")]
|
| 491 |
+
ws = [float(x) for x in str(r["weights"]).split(",")]
|
| 492 |
+
wmap = {}
|
| 493 |
+
for i in range(min(len(ts), len(ws))):
|
| 494 |
+
wmap[ts[i]] = ws[i]
|
| 495 |
+
# normalize to gross 1
|
| 496 |
+
gross = sum(abs(v) for v in wmap.values())
|
| 497 |
+
if gross <= 1e-12:
|
| 498 |
+
return {}
|
| 499 |
+
return {k: v / gross for k, v in wmap.items()}
|
| 500 |
+
|
| 501 |
+
def compute(lookback_years: int,
|
| 502 |
+
table: Optional[pd.DataFrame],
|
| 503 |
+
risk_bucket: str,
|
| 504 |
+
horizon_years: float):
|
| 505 |
+
|
| 506 |
+
# --- sanitize input table
|
| 507 |
+
if table is None or len(table) == 0:
|
| 508 |
+
return (None, "Add at least one ticker", "", pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS),
|
| 509 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS),
|
| 510 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=EFF_COLS),
|
| 511 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=EFF_COLS), json.dumps([]), 1, "No suggestions yet.")
|
| 512 |
+
|
| 513 |
+
df = table.copy().dropna()
|
| 514 |
df["ticker"] = df["ticker"].astype(str).str.upper().str.strip()
|
| 515 |
df["amount_usd"] = pd.to_numeric(df["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0)
|
| 516 |
|
| 517 |
symbols = [t for t in df["ticker"].tolist() if t]
|
| 518 |
+
symbols = validate_tickers(symbols, lookback_years)
|
| 519 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 520 |
+
return (None, "Could not validate any tickers", "Universe invalid",
|
| 521 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS),
|
| 522 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS),
|
| 523 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=EFF_COLS),
|
| 524 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=EFF_COLS), json.dumps([]), 1, "No suggestions.")
|
| 525 |
+
|
| 526 |
+
# --- universe & amounts
|
| 527 |
+
universe = sorted(set([s for s in symbols if s != MARKET_TICKER] + [MARKET_TICKER]))
|
|
|
|
| 528 |
df = df[df["ticker"].isin(symbols)].copy()
|
| 529 |
amounts = {r["ticker"]: float(r["amount_usd"]) for _, r in df.iterrows()}
|
| 530 |
+
gross_amt = sum(abs(v) for v in amounts.values())
|
| 531 |
+
if gross_amt <= 1e-9:
|
| 532 |
+
return (None, "All amounts are zero", "Universe ok", pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS),
|
| 533 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS),
|
| 534 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=EFF_COLS),
|
| 535 |
+
pd.DataFrame(columns=EFF_COLS), json.dumps([]), 1, "No suggestions.")
|
| 536 |
+
|
| 537 |
+
weights = {k: v / gross_amt for k, v in amounts.items()}
|
| 538 |
+
|
| 539 |
+
# --- risk free & moments
|
| 540 |
+
rf_code = fred_series_for_horizon(horizon_years)
|
| 541 |
+
rf_ann = fetch_fred_yield_annual(rf_code)
|
| 542 |
+
moms = estimate_all_moments_aligned(universe, lookback_years, rf_ann)
|
| 543 |
betas, covA, erp_ann, sigma_mkt = moms["betas"], moms["cov_ann"], moms["erp_ann"], moms["sigma_m_ann"]
|
| 544 |
|
| 545 |
+
# --- portfolio stats (CAPM return + historical sigma)
|
| 546 |
+
beta_p, er_capm_p, sigma_p = portfolio_stats(weights, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
| 547 |
+
|
| 548 |
+
# --- efficient alternatives on CML
|
| 549 |
+
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma = efficient_same_sigma(sigma_p, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 550 |
+
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu = efficient_same_return(er_capm_p, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 551 |
+
|
| 552 |
+
eff_same_sigma_tbl = _table_from_weights({MARKET_TICKER: a_sigma, BILLS_TICKER: b_sigma}, gross_amt)
|
| 553 |
+
eff_same_mu_tbl = _table_from_weights({MARKET_TICKER: a_mu, BILLS_TICKER: b_mu}, gross_amt)
|
| 554 |
+
|
| 555 |
+
# --- build synthetic dataset (based ONLY on this universe)
|
| 556 |
+
synth = build_synth_dataset(universe, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann, n_rows=N_SYNTH, seed=777)
|
| 557 |
+
|
| 558 |
+
# --- risk buckets by sigma (absolute percentage points around median)
|
| 559 |
+
median_sigma = float(synth["sigma"].median()) if len(synth) else sigma_p
|
| 560 |
+
low_max = max(float(synth["sigma"].min()), median_sigma - 0.05) # 5% below median
|
| 561 |
+
high_min = median_sigma + 0.05
|
| 562 |
+
|
| 563 |
+
if risk_bucket == "Low":
|
| 564 |
+
cand_df = synth[synth["sigma"] <= low_max].copy()
|
| 565 |
+
elif risk_bucket == "High":
|
| 566 |
+
cand_df = synth[synth["sigma"] >= high_min].copy()
|
| 567 |
+
else: # Medium
|
| 568 |
+
cand_df = synth[(synth["sigma"] > low_max) & (synth["sigma"] < high_min)].copy()
|
| 569 |
+
|
| 570 |
+
if len(cand_df) == 0:
|
| 571 |
+
cand_df = synth.copy()
|
| 572 |
+
|
| 573 |
+
# --- embed all candidates + query, and pick 3 via MMR for diversity
|
| 574 |
+
embed = get_embedder()
|
| 575 |
+
cand_sentences = cand_df.apply(row_to_sentence, axis=1).tolist()
|
| 576 |
+
|
| 577 |
+
# query sentence derived from user's portfolio + bucket
|
| 578 |
+
cur_pairs = ", ".join([f"{k}:{v:+.2f}" for k, v in sorted(weights.items())])
|
| 579 |
+
q_sentence = f"user portfolio ({risk_bucket} risk); capm_target {er_capm_p:.4f}; sigma_hist {sigma_p:.4f}; exposures {cur_pairs}"
|
| 580 |
+
|
| 581 |
+
cand_embs = embed.encode(cand_sentences, convert_to_tensor=True, normalize_embeddings=True, batch_size=64, show_progress_bar=False)
|
| 582 |
+
q_emb = embed.encode([q_sentence], convert_to_tensor=True, normalize_embeddings=True)[0]
|
| 583 |
+
|
| 584 |
+
# shortlist by similarity, then MMR
|
| 585 |
+
sims = st_util.cos_sim(q_emb, cand_embs)[0]
|
| 586 |
+
top_idx = sims.topk(k=min(MMR_K, len(cand_df))).indices.cpu().numpy().tolist()
|
| 587 |
+
shortlist_embs = cand_embs[top_idx]
|
| 588 |
+
mmr_local = mmr_select(q_emb, shortlist_embs, k=3, lambda_param=MMR_LAMBDA)
|
| 589 |
+
chosen = [top_idx[i] for i in mmr_local]
|
| 590 |
+
recs = cand_df.iloc[chosen].reset_index(drop=True)
|
| 591 |
+
|
| 592 |
+
# --- suggestion tables for 3 picks
|
| 593 |
+
suggs = []
|
| 594 |
+
for _, r in recs.iterrows():
|
| 595 |
+
wmap = _weights_dict_from_row(r)
|
| 596 |
+
suggs.append({
|
| 597 |
+
"weights": wmap,
|
| 598 |
+
"er_capm": float(r["er_capm"]),
|
| 599 |
+
"sigma": float(r["sigma"]),
|
| 600 |
+
"beta": float(r["beta"]),
|
| 601 |
+
"table": _table_from_weights(wmap, gross_amt)
|
| 602 |
+
})
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 603 |
|
| 604 |
+
# --- plot
|
| 605 |
+
img = plot_cml(
|
| 606 |
+
rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 607 |
+
sigma_p, er_capm_p,
|
| 608 |
+
same_sigma_sigma=sigma_p, same_sigma_mu=mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 609 |
+
same_mu_sigma=sigma_eff_mu, same_mu_mu=er_capm_p
|
| 610 |
)
|
| 611 |
|
| 612 |
+
# --- positions table (computed)
|
| 613 |
+
rows = []
|
| 614 |
+
for t in universe:
|
| 615 |
+
if t == MARKET_TICKER:
|
| 616 |
+
continue
|
| 617 |
+
rows.append({
|
| 618 |
+
"ticker": t,
|
| 619 |
+
"amount_usd": round(amounts.get(t, 0.0), 2),
|
| 620 |
+
"weight_exposure": round(weights.get(t, 0.0), 6),
|
| 621 |
+
"beta": round(betas.get(t, np.nan), 4) if t != MARKET_TICKER else 1.0
|
| 622 |
+
})
|
| 623 |
+
pos_table = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=POS_COLS)
|
| 624 |
+
|
| 625 |
+
# --- info summary
|
| 626 |
+
info_lines = []
|
| 627 |
+
info_lines.append("### Inputs")
|
| 628 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Lookback years **{int(lookback_years)}**")
|
| 629 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Horizon years **{int(round(horizon_years))}**")
|
| 630 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Risk-free **{fmt_pct(rf_ann)}** from **{rf_code}**")
|
| 631 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Market ERP **{fmt_pct(erp_ann)}**")
|
| 632 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Market σ **{fmt_pct(sigma_mkt)}**")
|
| 633 |
+
info_lines.append("")
|
| 634 |
+
info_lines.append("### Your portfolio (plotted as CAPM return, historical σ)")
|
| 635 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Beta **{beta_p:.2f}**")
|
| 636 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- σ (historical) **{fmt_pct(sigma_p)}**")
|
| 637 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- E[return] (CAPM / SML) **{fmt_pct(er_capm_p)}**")
|
| 638 |
+
info_lines.append("")
|
| 639 |
+
info_lines.append("### Efficient alternatives on CML")
|
| 640 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Same σ → Market **{a_sigma:.2f}**, Bills **{b_sigma:.2f}**, Return **{fmt_pct(mu_eff_sigma)}**")
|
| 641 |
+
info_lines.append(f"- Same μ → Market **{a_mu:.2f}**, Bills **{b_mu:.2f}**, σ **{fmt_pct(sigma_eff_mu)}**")
|
| 642 |
+
info_lines.append("")
|
| 643 |
+
info_lines.append(f"### Dataset-based suggestions (risk: **{risk_bucket}**)")
|
| 644 |
+
info_lines.append("Use the selector to flip between **Pick #1 / #2 / #3**. Table shows % exposure and $ amounts.")
|
| 645 |
+
|
| 646 |
+
# --- default suggestion shown (index 1)
|
| 647 |
+
current_idx = 1
|
| 648 |
+
current = suggs[current_idx - 1] if suggs else None
|
| 649 |
+
current_tbl = current["table"] if current else pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS)
|
| 650 |
+
current_msg = ("Pick #1 — "
|
| 651 |
+
f"E[μ] {fmt_pct(current['er_capm'])}, σ {fmt_pct(current['sigma'])}, β {current['beta']:.2f}"
|
| 652 |
+
) if current else "No suggestion."
|
| 653 |
+
|
| 654 |
+
return (img,
|
| 655 |
+
"\n".join(info_lines),
|
| 656 |
+
f"Universe set to {', '.join(universe)}",
|
| 657 |
+
pos_table,
|
| 658 |
+
suggs[0]["table"] if len(suggs) >= 1 else pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS),
|
| 659 |
+
suggs[1]["table"] if len(suggs) >= 2 else pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS),
|
| 660 |
+
suggs[2]["table"] if len(suggs) >= 3 else pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS),
|
| 661 |
+
eff_same_sigma_tbl,
|
| 662 |
+
eff_same_mu_tbl,
|
| 663 |
+
json.dumps([{
|
| 664 |
+
"er_capm": s["er_capm"], "sigma": s["sigma"], "beta": s["beta"],
|
| 665 |
+
} for s in suggs]),
|
| 666 |
+
current_idx,
|
| 667 |
+
current_msg)
|
| 668 |
+
|
| 669 |
+
def on_pick_change(idx: int, meta_json: str):
|
| 670 |
+
try:
|
| 671 |
+
data = json.loads(meta_json)
|
| 672 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 673 |
+
data = []
|
| 674 |
+
if not data:
|
| 675 |
+
return "No suggestion."
|
| 676 |
+
i = int(idx) - 1
|
| 677 |
+
i = max(0, min(i, len(data)-1))
|
| 678 |
+
s = data[i]
|
| 679 |
+
return f"Pick #{i+1} — E[μ] {fmt_pct(s['er_capm'])}, σ {fmt_pct(s['sigma'])}, β {s['beta']:.2f}"
|
| 680 |
+
|
| 681 |
+
# =========================
|
| 682 |
+
# UI
|
| 683 |
+
# =========================
|
| 684 |
+
with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor", css="""
|
| 685 |
+
#small-note {font-size: 12px; color:#666;}
|
| 686 |
+
""") as demo:
|
| 687 |
+
|
| 688 |
+
gr.Markdown("## Efficient Portfolio Advisor\n"
|
| 689 |
+
"Search symbols, enter **$ amounts**, set your **horizon**. "
|
| 690 |
+
"The plot shows your **CAPM expected return** vs **historical σ**, alongside the **CML**. "
|
| 691 |
+
"Recommendations are generated from a **synthetic dataset (1000 portfolios)** and ranked with **local embeddings (BGE-base)** for relevance + diversity.")
|
| 692 |
+
|
| 693 |
+
with gr.Tab("Build Portfolio"):
|
| 694 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 695 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 696 |
+
q = gr.Textbox(label="Search symbol")
|
| 697 |
+
search_note = gr.Markdown(elem_id="small-note")
|
| 698 |
+
matches = gr.Dropdown(choices=[], label="Matches", value=None)
|
| 699 |
+
search_btn = gr.Button("Search")
|
| 700 |
+
add_btn = gr.Button("Add selected to portfolio")
|
| 701 |
+
|
| 702 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Positions (enter dollars; negatives allowed for shorts)")
|
| 703 |
+
table = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 704 |
+
headers=["ticker", "amount_usd"],
|
| 705 |
+
datatype=["str", "number"],
|
| 706 |
+
row_count=0,
|
| 707 |
+
col_count=(2, "fixed"),
|
| 708 |
+
wrap=True
|
| 709 |
+
)
|
| 710 |
+
|
| 711 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 712 |
+
horizon = gr.Slider(1, 30, value=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS, step=1, label="Investment horizon (years)")
|
| 713 |
+
lookback = gr.Slider(1, 10, value=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS, step=1, label="Lookback (years) for β and σ")
|
| 714 |
+
risk_bucket = gr.Radio(["Low", "Medium", "High"], value="Medium", label="Recommendation risk level")
|
| 715 |
+
run_btn = gr.Button("Compute")
|
| 716 |
+
|
| 717 |
+
rf_msg = gr.Textbox(label="Risk-free source / status", interactive=False)
|
| 718 |
+
search_btn.click(fn=do_search, inputs=q, outputs=[search_note, matches])
|
| 719 |
+
add_btn.click(fn=add_symbol, inputs=[matches, table], outputs=[table, search_note])
|
| 720 |
+
table.change(fn=lock_ticker_column, inputs=table, outputs=table)
|
| 721 |
+
horizon.change(fn=set_horizon, inputs=horizon, outputs=[rf_msg, gr.State()]) # rf_msg + silent
|
| 722 |
+
|
| 723 |
+
with gr.Tab("Results"):
|
| 724 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 725 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 726 |
+
plot = gr.Image(label="Capital Market Line", type="pil")
|
| 727 |
+
summary = gr.Markdown(label="Summary")
|
| 728 |
+
universe_msg = gr.Textbox(label="Universe status", interactive=False)
|
| 729 |
+
|
| 730 |
+
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 731 |
+
positions = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 732 |
+
label="Computed positions",
|
| 733 |
+
headers=POS_COLS,
|
| 734 |
+
datatype=["str", "number", "number", "number"],
|
| 735 |
+
col_count=(len(POS_COLS), "fixed"),
|
| 736 |
+
interactive=False
|
| 737 |
+
)
|
| 738 |
+
|
| 739 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Recommendations (always from embeddings)")
|
| 740 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 741 |
+
sugg1 = gr.Dataframe(label="Pick #1", interactive=False)
|
| 742 |
+
sugg2 = gr.Dataframe(label="Pick #2", interactive=False)
|
| 743 |
+
sugg3 = gr.Dataframe(label="Pick #3", interactive=False)
|
| 744 |
+
|
| 745 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 746 |
+
pick_idx = gr.Slider(1, 3, value=1, step=1, label="Carousel: show Pick #")
|
| 747 |
+
pick_meta = gr.Textbox(value="[]", visible=False)
|
| 748 |
+
pick_msg = gr.Markdown("")
|
| 749 |
+
|
| 750 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Efficient alternatives on the CML")
|
| 751 |
+
eff_same_sigma_tbl = gr.Dataframe(label="Efficient: Same σ", interactive=False)
|
| 752 |
+
eff_same_mu_tbl = gr.Dataframe(label="Efficient: Same μ", interactive=False)
|
| 753 |
+
|
| 754 |
+
run_btn.click(
|
| 755 |
+
fn=compute,
|
| 756 |
+
inputs=[lookback, table, risk_bucket, horizon],
|
| 757 |
+
outputs=[
|
| 758 |
+
plot, summary, universe_msg, positions,
|
| 759 |
+
sugg1, sugg2, sugg3,
|
| 760 |
+
eff_same_sigma_tbl, eff_same_mu_tbl,
|
| 761 |
+
pick_meta, pick_idx, pick_msg
|
| 762 |
+
]
|
| 763 |
+
)
|
| 764 |
+
pick_idx.change(fn=on_pick_change, inputs=[pick_idx, pick_meta], outputs=pick_msg)
|
| 765 |
+
|
| 766 |
+
with gr.Tab("About"):
|
| 767 |
+
gr.Markdown(
|
| 768 |
+
"### Modality & Model\n"
|
| 769 |
+
"- **Modality**: Text (portfolio → text descriptions) powering **embeddings**\n"
|
| 770 |
+
"- **Embedding model**: `BAAI/bge-base-en-v1.5` (local, downloaded once; no API)\n\n"
|
| 771 |
+
"### Use case\n"
|
| 772 |
+
"Given a portfolio, we build a synthetic dataset of 1,000 alternative mixes **using the same tickers**, "
|
| 773 |
+
"compute each mix’s **CAPM return, σ, and β**, and rank candidates with embeddings to return **3 diverse, relevant suggestions** "
|
| 774 |
+
"for **Low / Medium / High** risk.\n\n"
|
| 775 |
+
"### Theory links\n"
|
| 776 |
+
"- Portfolio expected return in the plot uses **CAPM (SML)**, while σ is historical.\n"
|
| 777 |
+
"- The **CML** and the two **efficient alternatives** (same σ, same μ) use a mix of **Market (VOO)** and **Bills**."
|
| 778 |
+
)
|
| 779 |
|
| 780 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 781 |
demo.launch()
|