Update app.py
Browse files
app.py
CHANGED
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
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import os, io, math, json,
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warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
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from typing import List, Tuple, Dict, Optional
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@@ -12,25 +12,57 @@ import requests
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import yfinance as yf
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import gradio as gr
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try:
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from sentence_transformers import SentenceTransformer
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_EMB_MODEL = "FinLang/finance-embeddings-investopedia"
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_emb = SentenceTransformer(_EMB_MODEL)
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except Exception:
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_emb = None
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#
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DATA_DIR = "data"
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os.
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MARKET_TICKER = "VOO"
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POS_COLS = ["ticker", "amount_usd", "weight_exposure", "beta"]
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FRED_MAP = [
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(1, "DGS1"),
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(2, "DGS2"),
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@@ -43,16 +75,6 @@ FRED_MAP = [
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(100, "DGS30"),
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]
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# ---------------- helpers ----------------
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def ensure_data_dir():
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os.makedirs(DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
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def empty_positions_df():
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return pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS)
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def empty_suggest_df():
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return pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_TABLE_COLS)
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def fred_series_for_horizon(years: float) -> str:
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y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
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for cutoff, code in FRED_MAP:
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@@ -71,125 +93,94 @@ def fetch_fred_yield_annual(code: str) -> float:
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except Exception:
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return 0.03
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"""
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if isinstance(df, pd.Series):
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out = df.to_frame(name=tickers[0])
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return out
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if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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col = candidates[0]
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return df[[col]].rename(columns={col: tickers[0]})
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# Fallback: take first numeric column
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first_num = [c for c in df.columns if pd.api.types.is_numeric_dtype(df[c])]
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if first_num:
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out = df[[first_num[0]]].copy()
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out.columns = [tickers[0]]
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return out
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raise ValueError("Could not extract a price column")
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def fetch_prices_monthly(tickers: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
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df = yf.download(
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start=start
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end=end
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interval="1mo",
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auto_adjust=True,
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progress=False,
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group_by="column"
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)
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def monthly_returns(prices: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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return prices.pct_change().dropna()
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def
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if not query or len(query.strip()) == 0:
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return []
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url = "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search"
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params = {"q": query.strip(), "quotesCount": 10, "newsCount": 0}
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headers = {"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"}
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try:
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r = requests.get(url, params=params, headers=headers, timeout=10)
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r.raise_for_status()
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data = r.json()
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out = []
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for q in data.get("quotes", []):
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sym = q.get("symbol")
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name = q.get("shortname") or q.get("longname") or ""
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exch = q.get("exchDisp") or ""
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if sym and sym.isascii():
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out.append({"symbol": sym, "name": name, "exchange": exch})
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if not out:
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out = [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n a"}]
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return out[:10]
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except Exception:
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return [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n a"}]
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def validate_tickers(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> List[str]:
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base = [s for s in dict.fromkeys(symbols) if s]
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try:
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px = fetch_prices_monthly(base + [MARKET_TICKER], years)
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except Exception:
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return []
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ok = [s for s in base if s in px.columns]
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return ok
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# -------------- aligned moments --------------
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def get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
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uniq = [c for c in dict.fromkeys(symbols) if c != MARKET_TICKER]
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tickers = uniq + [MARKET_TICKER]
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px = fetch_prices_monthly(tickers, years)
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rets = monthly_returns(px)
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R = rets[cols].dropna(how="any")
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def estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols: List[str], years: int, rf_ann: float):
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R = get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols
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if
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raise ValueError("Not enough aligned
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rf_m = rf_ann / 12.0
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m = R[
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if isinstance(m, pd.DataFrame):
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m = m.iloc[:, 0].squeeze()
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mu_m_ann = float(
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sigma_m_ann = float(
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erp_ann = float(mu_m_ann - rf_ann)
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ex_m = m - rf_m
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var_m = max(var_m, 1e-8)
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betas: Dict[str, float] = {}
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for s in [c for c in R.columns if c !=
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ex_s = R[s] - rf_m
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betas[
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asset_cols = [c for c in R.columns if c !=
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if asset_cols
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def capm_er(beta: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float) -> float:
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return float(rf_ann + beta * erp_ann)
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rf_ann: float,
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erp_ann: float) -> Tuple[float, float, float]:
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tickers = list(weights.keys())
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w = np.array([weights[t] for t in tickers], dtype=float)
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gross = float(np.sum(np.abs(w)))
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if gross == 0:
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return 0.0,
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w_expo = w / gross
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beta_p = float(np.dot([betas.get(t, 0.0) for t in tickers], w_expo))
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cov = cov_ann.reindex(index=tickers, columns=tickers).fillna(0.0).to_numpy()
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sigma_p = math.sqrt(float(max(w_expo.T @ cov @ w_expo, 0.0)))
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return beta_p,
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#
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def efficient_same_return(mu_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
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if abs(erp_ann) <= 1e-12:
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return 0.0, 1.0, rf_ann
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a = (mu_target - rf_ann) / erp_ann
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return a, 1.0 - a, abs(a) * sigma_mkt
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def _pct(x: float) -> float:
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return float(x) * 100.0
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def plot_cml(
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rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
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pt_sigma, pt_mu, # <-- portfolio CAPM point
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same_sigma_sigma, same_sigma_mu,
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same_mu_sigma, same_mu_mu,
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sugg_sigma=None, sugg_mu=None
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) -> Image.Image:
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fig = plt.figure(figsize=(6.4, 4.2), dpi=140)
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xmax = max(0.30, sigma_mkt * 2.0, pt_sigma * 1.4, same_mu_sigma * 1.4, same_sigma_sigma * 1.4, (sugg_sigma or 0.0) * 1.4)
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xs = np.linspace(0, xmax, 200)
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slope = erp_ann / max(sigma_mkt, 1e-12)
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cml = rf_ann + slope * xs
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plt.plot(_pct(xs), _pct(cml), label="CML via Market", linewidth=1.8)
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#
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plt.scatter([0.0], [_pct(rf_ann)], label="Risk-free
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plt.scatter([_pct(sigma_mkt)], [_pct(rf_ann + erp_ann)], label=
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plt.scatter([_pct(pt_sigma)], [_pct(pt_mu)], label="Your portfolio (CAPM)")
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plt.ylabel("Expected return (annual, %)")
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plt.legend(loc="best", fontsize=8)
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plt.tight_layout()
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buf = io.BytesIO()
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plt.savefig(buf, format="png")
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plt.close(fig)
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buf.seek(0)
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return Image.open(buf)
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#
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def
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k = rng.integers(low=min(2, len(universe)), high=min(8, len(universe)) + 1)
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picks = list(rng.choice(universe, size=k, replace=False))
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signs = rng.choice([-1.0, 1.0], size=k, p=[0.25, 0.75])
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raw = rng.dirichlet(np.ones(k))
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gross = 1.0 + float(rng.gamma(2.0, 0.5))
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w = gross * signs * raw # exposure weights that sum (in abs) to gross
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rows.append({
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"id": i,
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"profile_text": synth_profile(rng),
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"tickers": ",".join(picks),
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"weights": ",".join(f"{
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})
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def _row_to_exposures(row: pd.Series, universe: List[str]) -> Optional[np.ndarray]:
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try:
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ts = [t.strip() for t in str(row["tickers"]).split(",")]
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ws = [float(x) for x in str(row["weights"]).split(",")]
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wmap = {t: ws[i] for i, t in enumerate(ts) if i < len(ws)}
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w = np.array([wmap.get(t, 0.0) for t in universe], dtype=float)
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gross = float(np.sum(np.abs(w)))
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if gross <= 1e-12:
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return None
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return w / gross
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except Exception:
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return None
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def _risk_query_text(risk: str) -> str:
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if risk == "Low":
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return "conservative low-volatility long-term capital preservation diversified investment grade"
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if risk == "High":
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return "aggressive high risk high growth momentum speculative tech heavy"
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return "balanced moderate risk growth and income diversified core equities and bonds"
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def _embed_scores(texts: List[str], query: str) -> np.ndarray:
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if _emb is None:
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return np.zeros(len(texts), dtype=float)
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qv = _emb.encode([query], normalize_embeddings=True)[0]
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M = _emb.encode(texts, normalize_embeddings=True)
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sims = (M @ qv).astype(float)
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return sims
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def make_suggestions(csv_path: str,
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universe: List[str],
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risk: str,
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use_embeddings: bool) -> List[Dict]:
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"""
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Return a list of 3 suggestions. Each item:
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{"weights": {ticker: expo}, "er": float, "sigma": float, "beta": float, "row_text": str}
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"""
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try:
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df = pd.read_csv(csv_path)
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except Exception:
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return []
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return []
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# Blend: 80% sigma closeness (smaller better) and -20% similarity (larger better)
|
| 390 |
-
closeness = np.abs(sigs[base_idx[:120]] - target_sigma)
|
| 391 |
-
score = 0.8 * (closeness / (closeness.max() + 1e-9)) - 0.2 * sims
|
| 392 |
-
rerank_local = np.argsort(score)
|
| 393 |
-
idx = base_idx[:120][rerank_local]
|
| 394 |
-
else:
|
| 395 |
-
idx = base_idx
|
| 396 |
-
|
| 397 |
-
# Take top 3 diverse by exposure distance
|
| 398 |
-
picks, chosen = [], []
|
| 399 |
-
for i in idx:
|
| 400 |
-
wvec = exps[i]
|
| 401 |
-
# enforce some diversity
|
| 402 |
-
ok = True
|
| 403 |
-
for j in chosen:
|
| 404 |
-
if np.linalg.norm(wvec - exps[j]) < 0.25:
|
| 405 |
-
ok = False
|
| 406 |
-
break
|
| 407 |
-
if not ok:
|
| 408 |
-
continue
|
| 409 |
-
chosen.append(i)
|
| 410 |
-
r = rows[i]
|
| 411 |
-
wmap = {universe[k]: float(wvec[k]) for k in range(len(universe)) if abs(wvec[k]) > 1e-4}
|
| 412 |
-
picks.append({
|
| 413 |
-
"weights": wmap,
|
| 414 |
-
"er": float(r["er_p"]),
|
| 415 |
-
"sigma": float(r["sigma_p"]),
|
| 416 |
-
"beta": float(r["beta_p"]),
|
| 417 |
-
"row_text": str(r["profile_text"])
|
| 418 |
-
})
|
| 419 |
-
if len(picks) == 3:
|
| 420 |
-
break
|
| 421 |
return picks
|
| 422 |
|
| 423 |
-
#
|
| 424 |
-
|
| 425 |
-
|
| 426 |
-
|
| 427 |
-
def build_summary_md(lookback, horizon, rf, rf_code, erp, sigma_mkt,
|
| 428 |
-
beta_p, sigma_hist, mu_hist, mu_capm,
|
| 429 |
-
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 430 |
-
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu) -> str:
|
| 431 |
-
lines = []
|
| 432 |
-
lines.append("### Inputs")
|
| 433 |
-
lines.append(f"- Lookback years **{lookback}**")
|
| 434 |
-
lines.append(f"- Horizon years **{horizon}**")
|
| 435 |
-
lines.append(f"- Risk-free **{fmt_pct(rf)}** from **{rf_code}**")
|
| 436 |
-
lines.append(f"- Market ERP **{fmt_pct(erp)}**")
|
| 437 |
-
lines.append(f"- Market σ **{fmt_pct(sigma_mkt)}**")
|
| 438 |
-
lines.append("")
|
| 439 |
-
lines.append("### Your portfolio (CAPM expectations)")
|
| 440 |
-
lines.append(f"- Beta **{beta_p:.2f}**")
|
| 441 |
-
lines.append(f"- σ (historical) **{fmt_pct(sigma_hist)}**")
|
| 442 |
-
lines.append(f"- Expected return (historical) **{fmt_pct(mu_hist)}**")
|
| 443 |
-
lines.append(f"- Expected return (CAPM / SML) **{fmt_pct(mu_capm)}**")
|
| 444 |
-
lines.append("")
|
| 445 |
-
lines.append("### Efficient alternatives on CML")
|
| 446 |
-
lines.append(f"- Same σ as your portfolio → Market weight **{a_sigma:.2f}**, Bills weight **{b_sigma:.2f}**, return **{fmt_pct(mu_eff_sigma)}**")
|
| 447 |
-
lines.append(f"- Same return (CAPM) → Market weight **{a_mu:.2f}**, Bills weight **{b_mu:.2f}**, σ **{fmt_pct(sigma_eff_mu)}**")
|
| 448 |
-
return "\n".join(lines)
|
| 449 |
-
|
| 450 |
-
# -------------- stateful globals on launch --------------
|
| 451 |
-
ensure_data_dir()
|
| 452 |
-
HORIZON_YEARS = 10
|
| 453 |
-
RF_CODE = fred_series_for_horizon(HORIZON_YEARS)
|
| 454 |
-
RF_ANN = fetch_fred_yield_annual(RF_CODE)
|
| 455 |
-
|
| 456 |
-
# -------------- gradio callbacks --------------
|
| 457 |
def search_tickers_cb(q: str):
|
| 458 |
hits = yahoo_search(q)
|
| 459 |
if not hits:
|
|
@@ -463,12 +405,10 @@ def search_tickers_cb(q: str):
|
|
| 463 |
|
| 464 |
def add_symbol(selection: str, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 465 |
if not selection:
|
| 466 |
-
return table, "Pick a row from Matches first"
|
| 467 |
symbol = selection.split("|")[0].strip().upper()
|
| 468 |
current = [] if table is None or len(table) == 0 else [str(x).upper() for x in table["ticker"].tolist() if str(x) != "nan"]
|
| 469 |
tickers = current if symbol in current else current + [symbol]
|
| 470 |
-
|
| 471 |
-
# validate against yfinance (with market ticker alongside to force download structure)
|
| 472 |
val = validate_tickers(tickers, years=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS)
|
| 473 |
tickers = [t for t in tickers if t in val]
|
| 474 |
amt_map = {}
|
|
@@ -482,7 +422,7 @@ def add_symbol(selection: str, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
|
| 482 |
if len(new_table) > MAX_TICKERS:
|
| 483 |
new_table = new_table.iloc[:MAX_TICKERS]
|
| 484 |
msg = f"Reached max of {MAX_TICKERS}"
|
| 485 |
-
return new_table, msg
|
| 486 |
|
| 487 |
def lock_ticker_column(tb: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 488 |
if tb is None or len(tb) == 0:
|
|
@@ -499,197 +439,187 @@ def set_horizon(years: float):
|
|
| 499 |
code = fred_series_for_horizon(y)
|
| 500 |
rf = fetch_fred_yield_annual(code)
|
| 501 |
global HORIZON_YEARS, RF_CODE, RF_ANN
|
| 502 |
-
HORIZON_YEARS =
|
| 503 |
RF_CODE = code
|
| 504 |
RF_ANN = rf
|
| 505 |
-
return f"Risk
|
| 506 |
-
|
| 507 |
-
def
|
| 508 |
-
|
| 509 |
-
|
| 510 |
-
|
| 511 |
-
|
| 512 |
-
|
| 513 |
-
|
| 514 |
-
|
| 515 |
-
)
|
| 516 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 517 |
if table is None or len(table) == 0:
|
| 518 |
-
return None, "Add at least one ticker", "Universe empty", empty_positions_df(), gr.update(
|
| 519 |
|
| 520 |
df = table.dropna()
|
| 521 |
df["ticker"] = df["ticker"].astype(str).str.upper().str.strip()
|
| 522 |
df["amount_usd"] = pd.to_numeric(df["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0)
|
| 523 |
symbols = [t for t in df["ticker"].tolist() if t]
|
| 524 |
-
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 525 |
-
return None, "Add at least one ticker", "Universe empty", empty_positions_df(), gr.update(choices=[], value=None), empty_suggest_df(), None, {}
|
| 526 |
|
| 527 |
symbols = validate_tickers(symbols, years_lookback)
|
| 528 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 529 |
-
return None, "Could not validate any tickers", "Universe invalid", empty_positions_df(), gr.update(
|
| 530 |
-
|
| 531 |
-
universe = list(sorted(set([s for s in symbols if s != MARKET_TICKER] + [MARKET_TICKER])))[:MAX_TICKERS]
|
| 532 |
|
| 533 |
-
|
| 534 |
-
amounts = {r["ticker"]: float(r["amount_usd"]) for _, r in df.iterrows()}
|
| 535 |
gross = sum(abs(v) for v in amounts.values())
|
| 536 |
-
if gross
|
| 537 |
-
return None, "All amounts are zero", "Universe ok", empty_positions_df(), gr.update(
|
|
|
|
| 538 |
|
| 539 |
-
#
|
| 540 |
rf_ann = RF_ANN
|
| 541 |
moms = estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols, years_lookback, rf_ann)
|
| 542 |
-
betas, covA
|
|
|
|
| 543 |
|
| 544 |
-
#
|
| 545 |
-
|
| 546 |
-
|
| 547 |
|
| 548 |
-
#
|
| 549 |
-
try:
|
| 550 |
-
R = get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols, years_lookback)
|
| 551 |
-
mu_hist = float(annualize_mean(R[symbols].mean().dot(np.array([weights[s] for s in symbols]))))
|
| 552 |
-
sigma_hist = sigma_p # same sigma as built from covA
|
| 553 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 554 |
-
mu_hist = mu_capm
|
| 555 |
-
sigma_hist = sigma_p
|
| 556 |
-
|
| 557 |
-
# efficient points on CML (use CAPM target)
|
| 558 |
-
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma = efficient_same_sigma(sigma_p, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 559 |
-
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu = efficient_same_return(mu_capm, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 560 |
-
|
| 561 |
-
# --- Build dataset once for this run (universe-specific) ---
|
| 562 |
-
ds_path = _build_dataset_path()
|
| 563 |
-
synth_df = build_synthetic_dataset(
|
| 564 |
-
universe=[u for u in universe if u != MARKET_TICKER],
|
| 565 |
-
years=years_lookback,
|
| 566 |
-
rf_ann=rf_ann,
|
| 567 |
-
erp_ann=erp_ann,
|
| 568 |
-
covA=covA,
|
| 569 |
-
betas=betas
|
| 570 |
-
)
|
| 571 |
-
synth_df.to_csv(ds_path, index=False)
|
| 572 |
-
|
| 573 |
-
# --- Suggestions (3 picks) ---
|
| 574 |
-
picks = make_suggestions(ds_path, [u for u in universe if u != MARKET_TICKER], risk_choice, use_embeddings)
|
| 575 |
-
if not picks:
|
| 576 |
-
pick_choices = []
|
| 577 |
-
sugg_table = empty_suggest_df()
|
| 578 |
-
sugg_sigma = None
|
| 579 |
-
sugg_mu = None
|
| 580 |
-
else:
|
| 581 |
-
pick_choices = [f"Pick #{i+1}" for i in range(len(picks))]
|
| 582 |
-
# default selection = first pick
|
| 583 |
-
first = picks[0]
|
| 584 |
-
sugg_sigma = float(first["sigma"])
|
| 585 |
-
sugg_mu = float(first["er"])
|
| 586 |
-
sugg_table = _pick_table(first, amounts)
|
| 587 |
-
|
| 588 |
-
# --- Plot with CAPM portfolio and suggestion point (if any) ---
|
| 589 |
-
img = plot_cml(
|
| 590 |
-
rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 591 |
-
pt_sigma=sigma_p, pt_mu=mu_capm,
|
| 592 |
-
same_sigma_sigma=sigma_p, same_sigma_mu=mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 593 |
-
same_mu_sigma=sigma_eff_mu, same_mu_mu=mu_capm,
|
| 594 |
-
sugg_sigma=sugg_sigma, sugg_mu=sugg_mu
|
| 595 |
-
)
|
| 596 |
-
|
| 597 |
-
# --- Summary text ---
|
| 598 |
-
summary = build_summary_md(
|
| 599 |
-
years_lookback, HORIZON_YEARS, rf_ann, RF_CODE, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 600 |
-
beta_p, sigma_hist, mu_hist, mu_capm,
|
| 601 |
-
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 602 |
-
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu
|
| 603 |
-
)
|
| 604 |
-
|
| 605 |
-
# positions table
|
| 606 |
rows = []
|
| 607 |
for t in symbols:
|
| 608 |
-
beta_val = 1.0 if t == MARKET_TICKER else betas.get(t, np.nan)
|
| 609 |
rows.append({
|
| 610 |
"ticker": t,
|
| 611 |
"amount_usd": amounts.get(t, 0.0),
|
| 612 |
-
"weight_exposure":
|
| 613 |
-
"beta":
|
| 614 |
})
|
| 615 |
pos_table = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=POS_COLS)
|
| 616 |
|
| 617 |
-
|
| 618 |
-
|
| 619 |
-
|
| 620 |
-
|
| 621 |
-
|
| 622 |
-
|
| 623 |
-
|
| 624 |
-
|
| 625 |
-
|
| 626 |
-
|
| 627 |
-
|
| 628 |
-
|
| 629 |
-
|
| 630 |
-
|
| 631 |
-
|
| 632 |
-
|
| 633 |
-
|
| 634 |
-
|
| 635 |
-
|
| 636 |
-
|
| 637 |
-
|
| 638 |
-
|
| 639 |
-
|
| 640 |
-
|
| 641 |
-
|
| 642 |
-
|
| 643 |
-
|
| 644 |
-
|
| 645 |
-
|
| 646 |
-
|
| 647 |
-
|
| 648 |
-
#
|
| 649 |
-
|
| 650 |
-
|
| 651 |
-
|
| 652 |
-
|
| 653 |
-
|
| 654 |
-
|
| 655 |
-
|
| 656 |
-
|
| 657 |
-
|
| 658 |
-
|
| 659 |
-
|
| 660 |
-
|
| 661 |
)
|
| 662 |
-
return table, img
|
| 663 |
|
| 664 |
-
#
|
| 665 |
-
|
| 666 |
-
|
| 667 |
-
|
| 668 |
-
|
| 669 |
-
|
| 670 |
-
|
| 671 |
-
|
| 672 |
-
|
| 673 |
-
|
| 674 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 675 |
|
|
|
|
| 676 |
gr.Markdown(
|
| 677 |
"## Efficient Portfolio Advisor\n"
|
| 678 |
-
"Search symbols, enter dollar amounts
|
| 679 |
-
"
|
| 680 |
-
"
|
| 681 |
)
|
| 682 |
|
| 683 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 684 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 685 |
q = gr.Textbox(label="Search symbol")
|
| 686 |
search_note = gr.Markdown()
|
| 687 |
-
matches = gr.Dropdown(choices=[], label="Matches")
|
| 688 |
-
|
| 689 |
-
|
| 690 |
-
add_btn = gr.Button("Add selected to portfolio")
|
| 691 |
|
| 692 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Portfolio positions
|
| 693 |
table = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 694 |
headers=["ticker", "amount_usd"],
|
| 695 |
datatype=["str", "number"],
|
|
@@ -698,17 +628,13 @@ with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
|
| 698 |
)
|
| 699 |
|
| 700 |
horizon = gr.Number(label="Horizon in years (1–100)", value=HORIZON_YEARS, precision=0)
|
| 701 |
-
lookback = gr.Slider(1, 10, value=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS, step=1, label="Lookback years for
|
| 702 |
-
|
| 703 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Suggestions")
|
| 704 |
-
risk = gr.Radio(["Low", "Medium", "High"], value="Medium", label="Risk tolerance")
|
| 705 |
-
use_emb = gr.Checkbox(label="Use finance embeddings to refine picks", value=True)
|
| 706 |
|
| 707 |
-
run_btn = gr.Button("Compute
|
| 708 |
|
| 709 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 710 |
-
plot = gr.Image(label="Capital Market Line (
|
| 711 |
-
summary = gr.Markdown(label="
|
| 712 |
universe_msg = gr.Textbox(label="Universe status", interactive=False)
|
| 713 |
|
| 714 |
positions = gr.Dataframe(
|
|
@@ -720,43 +646,47 @@ with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
|
| 720 |
interactive=False
|
| 721 |
)
|
| 722 |
|
| 723 |
-
|
| 724 |
-
|
| 725 |
-
|
| 726 |
-
|
| 727 |
-
|
| 728 |
-
|
| 729 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 730 |
datatype=["str", "number", "number"],
|
| 731 |
-
col_count=(len(
|
| 732 |
value=empty_suggest_df(),
|
| 733 |
interactive=False
|
| 734 |
)
|
| 735 |
-
dl = gr.File(label="Generated dataset CSV", value=None, visible=True)
|
| 736 |
|
| 737 |
-
#
|
| 738 |
-
suggestions_state = gr.State({})
|
| 739 |
-
|
| 740 |
-
# wire events
|
| 741 |
def do_search(query):
|
| 742 |
note, options = search_tickers_cb(query)
|
| 743 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 744 |
|
| 745 |
search_btn.click(fn=do_search, inputs=q, outputs=[search_note, matches])
|
| 746 |
-
add_btn.click(fn=add_symbol, inputs=[matches, table], outputs=[table, search_note])
|
| 747 |
table.change(fn=lock_ticker_column, inputs=table, outputs=table)
|
| 748 |
horizon.change(fn=set_horizon, inputs=horizon, outputs=universe_msg)
|
| 749 |
|
| 750 |
run_btn.click(
|
| 751 |
fn=compute,
|
| 752 |
-
inputs=[lookback, table,
|
| 753 |
-
outputs=[plot, summary, universe_msg, positions,
|
| 754 |
)
|
| 755 |
|
| 756 |
-
|
| 757 |
-
|
| 758 |
-
|
| 759 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 760 |
)
|
| 761 |
|
| 762 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
|
| 2 |
+
import os, io, math, json, warnings
|
| 3 |
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
|
| 4 |
|
| 5 |
from typing import List, Tuple, Dict, Optional
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
import yfinance as yf
|
| 13 |
import gradio as gr
|
| 14 |
|
| 15 |
+
from sentence_transformers import SentenceTransformer
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
|
| 17 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 18 |
+
# Config
|
| 19 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 20 |
DATA_DIR = "data"
|
| 21 |
+
DATASET_PATH = os.path.join(DATA_DIR, "investor_profiles.csv")
|
| 22 |
+
|
| 23 |
+
MAX_TICKERS = 30
|
| 24 |
+
DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS = 5
|
| 25 |
|
| 26 |
+
# Try these in order for "market"
|
| 27 |
+
MARKET_CANDIDATES = ["VOO", "SPY", "IVV"]
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
|
| 29 |
+
# Gradio table schemas
|
| 30 |
POS_COLS = ["ticker", "amount_usd", "weight_exposure", "beta"]
|
| 31 |
+
SUG_COLS = ["ticker", "weight_pct", "amount_usd"]
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
# Globals (updated on events)
|
| 34 |
+
HORIZON_YEARS = 5.0
|
| 35 |
+
RF_CODE = "DGS5"
|
| 36 |
+
RF_ANN = 0.03
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
# Lazy-loaded embedding model
|
| 39 |
+
_EMB_MODEL = None
|
| 40 |
+
|
| 41 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 42 |
+
# Small utils
|
| 43 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 44 |
+
def ensure_data_dir():
|
| 45 |
+
os.makedirs(DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
|
| 46 |
+
|
| 47 |
+
def fmt_pct(x: float) -> str:
|
| 48 |
+
try:
|
| 49 |
+
return f"{float(x)*100:.2f}%"
|
| 50 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 51 |
+
return "0.00%"
|
| 52 |
+
|
| 53 |
+
def _pct(x):
|
| 54 |
+
"""Return x in percent; accepts float or numpy array."""
|
| 55 |
+
return np.asarray(x, dtype=float) * 100.0
|
| 56 |
|
| 57 |
+
def empty_positions_df():
|
| 58 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS)
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
def empty_suggest_df():
|
| 61 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS)
|
| 62 |
+
|
| 63 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 64 |
+
# Risk-free via FRED
|
| 65 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 66 |
FRED_MAP = [
|
| 67 |
(1, "DGS1"),
|
| 68 |
(2, "DGS2"),
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|
| 75 |
(100, "DGS30"),
|
| 76 |
]
|
| 77 |
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| 78 |
def fred_series_for_horizon(years: float) -> str:
|
| 79 |
y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
|
| 80 |
for cutoff, code in FRED_MAP:
|
|
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|
| 93 |
except Exception:
|
| 94 |
return 0.03
|
| 95 |
|
| 96 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 97 |
+
# Prices & returns (robust to yfinance shapes)
|
| 98 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 99 |
+
def _extract_close(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
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|
| 100 |
if isinstance(df, pd.Series):
|
| 101 |
+
return df.to_frame()
|
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|
| 102 |
if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
|
| 103 |
+
for key in ["Close", "Adj Close"]:
|
| 104 |
+
try:
|
| 105 |
+
c = df.xs(key, axis=1, level=0)
|
| 106 |
+
return c
|
| 107 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 108 |
+
pass
|
| 109 |
+
# fallback: take first level
|
| 110 |
+
lvl0 = list(dict.fromkeys(df.columns.get_level_values(0)))
|
| 111 |
+
return df.xs(lvl0[0], axis=1, level=0)
|
| 112 |
+
else:
|
| 113 |
+
if "Close" in df.columns:
|
| 114 |
+
return df[["Close"]]
|
| 115 |
+
if "Adj Close" in df.columns:
|
| 116 |
+
c = df[["Adj Close"]].copy()
|
| 117 |
+
c.columns = ["Close"]
|
| 118 |
+
return c
|
| 119 |
+
return df
|
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|
| 120 |
|
| 121 |
def fetch_prices_monthly(tickers: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 122 |
+
tickers = list(dict.fromkeys([t for t in tickers if t])) # unique, keep order
|
| 123 |
+
if not tickers:
|
| 124 |
+
return pd.DataFrame()
|
| 125 |
+
start = (pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC") - pd.DateOffset(years=years, days=7)).date()
|
| 126 |
+
end = pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC").date()
|
| 127 |
df = yf.download(
|
| 128 |
+
tickers,
|
| 129 |
+
start=start,
|
| 130 |
+
end=end,
|
| 131 |
interval="1mo",
|
| 132 |
auto_adjust=True,
|
| 133 |
progress=False,
|
| 134 |
+
group_by="column"
|
| 135 |
)
|
| 136 |
+
if isinstance(df, pd.DataFrame):
|
| 137 |
+
df = _extract_close(df)
|
| 138 |
+
df = df.dropna(how="all").fillna(method="ffill")
|
| 139 |
+
# When single ticker, columns might be 1 col named by ticker or "Close"
|
| 140 |
+
if df.shape[1] == 1:
|
| 141 |
+
col = df.columns[0]
|
| 142 |
+
if col in ("Close", "Adj Close"):
|
| 143 |
+
# rename to ticker if only one requested
|
| 144 |
+
if len(tickers) == 1:
|
| 145 |
+
df.columns = [tickers[0]]
|
| 146 |
+
return df
|
| 147 |
|
| 148 |
def monthly_returns(prices: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 149 |
+
return prices.pct_change().dropna(how="all")
|
| 150 |
+
|
| 151 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 152 |
+
# Aligned moments (market chosen dynamically)
|
| 153 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 154 |
+
def get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> Tuple[pd.DataFrame, str]:
|
| 155 |
+
uniq = [c for c in dict.fromkeys(symbols)]
|
| 156 |
+
want = list(dict.fromkeys(uniq + MARKET_CANDIDATES))
|
| 157 |
+
px = fetch_prices_monthly(want, years)
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 158 |
rets = monthly_returns(px)
|
| 159 |
+
# pick first available market
|
| 160 |
+
market = None
|
| 161 |
+
for m in MARKET_CANDIDATES:
|
| 162 |
+
if m in rets.columns:
|
| 163 |
+
market = m
|
| 164 |
+
break
|
| 165 |
+
if market is None:
|
| 166 |
+
raise ValueError("No market proxy (VOO/SPY/IVV) found in returned data.")
|
| 167 |
+
cols = [c for c in uniq if c in rets.columns] + [market]
|
| 168 |
R = rets[cols].dropna(how="any")
|
| 169 |
+
R = R.loc[:, ~R.columns.duplicated()]
|
| 170 |
+
return R, market
|
| 171 |
|
| 172 |
def estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols: List[str], years: int, rf_ann: float):
|
| 173 |
+
R, market = get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols, years)
|
| 174 |
+
if market not in R.columns or R.shape[0] < 3:
|
| 175 |
+
raise ValueError("Not enough aligned data.")
|
| 176 |
rf_m = rf_ann / 12.0
|
| 177 |
|
| 178 |
+
m = R[market]
|
| 179 |
if isinstance(m, pd.DataFrame):
|
| 180 |
m = m.iloc[:, 0].squeeze()
|
| 181 |
|
| 182 |
+
mu_m_ann = float(m.mean() * 12.0)
|
| 183 |
+
sigma_m_ann = float(m.std(ddof=1) * math.sqrt(12.0))
|
| 184 |
erp_ann = float(mu_m_ann - rf_ann)
|
| 185 |
|
| 186 |
ex_m = m - rf_m
|
|
|
|
| 188 |
var_m = max(var_m, 1e-8)
|
| 189 |
|
| 190 |
betas: Dict[str, float] = {}
|
| 191 |
+
for s in [c for c in R.columns if c != market]:
|
| 192 |
ex_s = R[s] - rf_m
|
| 193 |
+
b = float(np.cov(ex_s.values, ex_m.values, ddof=1)[0, 1] / var_m)
|
| 194 |
+
betas[s] = b
|
| 195 |
+
betas[market] = 1.0
|
| 196 |
+
|
| 197 |
+
asset_cols = [c for c in R.columns if c != market]
|
| 198 |
+
cov_m = np.cov(R[asset_cols].values.T, ddof=1) if asset_cols else np.zeros((0, 0))
|
| 199 |
+
covA = pd.DataFrame(cov_m * 12.0, index=asset_cols, columns=asset_cols)
|
| 200 |
+
|
| 201 |
+
return {
|
| 202 |
+
"betas": betas,
|
| 203 |
+
"cov_ann": covA,
|
| 204 |
+
"erp_ann": erp_ann,
|
| 205 |
+
"sigma_m_ann": sigma_m_ann,
|
| 206 |
+
"market": market,
|
| 207 |
+
}
|
| 208 |
+
|
| 209 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 210 |
+
# Portfolio stats (CAPM)
|
| 211 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 212 |
def capm_er(beta: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float) -> float:
|
| 213 |
return float(rf_ann + beta * erp_ann)
|
| 214 |
|
|
|
|
| 218 |
rf_ann: float,
|
| 219 |
erp_ann: float) -> Tuple[float, float, float]:
|
| 220 |
tickers = list(weights.keys())
|
| 221 |
+
if not tickers:
|
| 222 |
+
return 0.0, rf_ann, 0.0
|
| 223 |
w = np.array([weights[t] for t in tickers], dtype=float)
|
| 224 |
gross = float(np.sum(np.abs(w)))
|
| 225 |
if gross == 0:
|
| 226 |
+
return 0.0, rf_ann, 0.0
|
| 227 |
w_expo = w / gross
|
| 228 |
beta_p = float(np.dot([betas.get(t, 0.0) for t in tickers], w_expo))
|
| 229 |
+
er_capm = capm_er(beta_p, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
| 230 |
cov = cov_ann.reindex(index=tickers, columns=tickers).fillna(0.0).to_numpy()
|
| 231 |
sigma_p = math.sqrt(float(max(w_expo.T @ cov @ w_expo, 0.0)))
|
| 232 |
+
return beta_p, er_capm, sigma_p
|
| 233 |
+
|
| 234 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 235 |
+
# Plot CML with CAPM point
|
| 236 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 237 |
+
def plot_cml(rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float,
|
| 238 |
+
user_beta: float,
|
| 239 |
+
suggestion: Optional[Dict] = None) -> Image.Image:
|
| 240 |
+
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(6.4, 4.2), dpi=120)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 241 |
slope = erp_ann / max(sigma_mkt, 1e-12)
|
| 242 |
+
xmax = max(0.3, 2.0 * sigma_mkt)
|
| 243 |
+
xs = np.linspace(0.0, xmax, 180)
|
| 244 |
cml = rf_ann + slope * xs
|
| 245 |
plt.plot(_pct(xs), _pct(cml), label="CML via Market", linewidth=1.8)
|
| 246 |
|
| 247 |
+
# Risk-free & market
|
| 248 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct(0.0)], [_pct(rf_ann)], label="Risk-free", s=25)
|
| 249 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct(sigma_mkt)], [_pct(rf_ann + erp_ann)], label="Market", s=25)
|
|
|
|
| 250 |
|
| 251 |
+
# User CAPM point projected onto CML using sigma = |beta| * sigma_mkt
|
| 252 |
+
sig_user = abs(user_beta) * sigma_mkt
|
| 253 |
+
mu_user = capm_er(user_beta, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
| 254 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct(sig_user)], [_pct(mu_user)], label="Your CAPM point", s=35)
|
| 255 |
|
| 256 |
+
# Optional suggestion point
|
| 257 |
+
if suggestion is not None:
|
| 258 |
+
plt.scatter([_pct(float(suggestion["sigma"]))],
|
| 259 |
+
[_pct(float(suggestion["er"]))],
|
| 260 |
+
label="Selected Suggestion", marker="D", s=35)
|
| 261 |
+
|
| 262 |
+
plt.xlabel("σ (annual, %)")
|
| 263 |
plt.ylabel("Expected return (annual, %)")
|
| 264 |
plt.legend(loc="best", fontsize=8)
|
| 265 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
|
|
|
| 266 |
buf = io.BytesIO()
|
| 267 |
plt.savefig(buf, format="png")
|
| 268 |
plt.close(fig)
|
| 269 |
buf.seek(0)
|
| 270 |
return Image.open(buf)
|
| 271 |
|
| 272 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 273 |
+
# Yahoo symbol search
|
| 274 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 275 |
+
def yahoo_search(query: str):
|
| 276 |
+
if not query or len(query.strip()) == 0:
|
| 277 |
+
return []
|
| 278 |
+
url = "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search"
|
| 279 |
+
params = {"q": query.strip(), "quotesCount": 10, "newsCount": 0}
|
| 280 |
+
headers = {"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"}
|
| 281 |
+
try:
|
| 282 |
+
r = requests.get(url, params=params, headers=headers, timeout=10)
|
| 283 |
+
r.raise_for_status()
|
| 284 |
+
data = r.json()
|
| 285 |
+
out = []
|
| 286 |
+
for q in data.get("quotes", []):
|
| 287 |
+
sym = q.get("symbol")
|
| 288 |
+
name = q.get("shortname") or q.get("longname") or ""
|
| 289 |
+
exch = q.get("exchDisp") or ""
|
| 290 |
+
if sym and sym.isascii():
|
| 291 |
+
out.append({"symbol": sym, "name": name, "exchange": exch})
|
| 292 |
+
if not out:
|
| 293 |
+
out = [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n/a"}]
|
| 294 |
+
return out[:10]
|
| 295 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 296 |
+
return [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n/a"}]
|
| 297 |
|
| 298 |
+
def validate_tickers(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> List[str]:
|
| 299 |
+
base = list(dict.fromkeys([s for s in symbols if s]))
|
| 300 |
+
px = fetch_prices_monthly(base + MARKET_CANDIDATES, years)
|
| 301 |
+
ok = [s for s in base if s in px.columns]
|
| 302 |
+
return ok
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 303 |
|
| 304 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 305 |
+
# Synthetic dataset & suggestions
|
| 306 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 307 |
+
def synth_profile_text(beta: float, sigma: float, er: float, weights: Dict[str, float]) -> str:
|
| 308 |
+
top = sorted(weights.items(), key=lambda kv: -abs(kv[1]))[:8]
|
| 309 |
+
parts = [f"{k} {abs(v)*100:.1f}%" for k, v in top]
|
| 310 |
+
return (
|
| 311 |
+
f"portfolio with beta {beta:.2f}, volatility {sigma:.3f}, expected return {er:.3f}; "
|
| 312 |
+
f"holdings: " + ", ".join(parts)
|
| 313 |
+
)
|
| 314 |
|
| 315 |
+
def build_synthetic_dataset(universe: List[str],
|
| 316 |
+
rf_ann: float,
|
| 317 |
+
erp_ann: float,
|
| 318 |
+
betas: Dict[str, float],
|
| 319 |
+
covA: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 320 |
+
n_rows: int = 1000,
|
| 321 |
+
seed: int = 123) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 322 |
+
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
|
| 323 |
+
rows = []
|
| 324 |
+
assets = [t for t in universe] # long-only samples
|
| 325 |
+
for i in range(n_rows):
|
| 326 |
+
k = rng.integers(low=max(2, min(2, len(assets))), high=max(3, min(8, len(assets))) + 1)
|
| 327 |
+
picks = list(rng.choice(assets, size=min(k, len(assets)), replace=False))
|
| 328 |
+
raw = rng.dirichlet(np.ones(len(picks)))
|
| 329 |
+
wmap = {picks[j]: float(raw[j]) for j in range(len(picks))}
|
| 330 |
+
beta_p, er_capm, sigma_p = portfolio_stats(wmap, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
| 331 |
rows.append({
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 332 |
"tickers": ",".join(picks),
|
| 333 |
+
"weights": ",".join(f"{wmap[t]:.6f}" for t in picks),
|
| 334 |
+
"beta": beta_p,
|
| 335 |
+
"er": er_capm,
|
| 336 |
+
"sigma": sigma_p,
|
| 337 |
+
"desc": synth_profile_text(beta_p, sigma_p, er_capm, wmap),
|
| 338 |
})
|
| 339 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
|
| 340 |
+
return df
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 341 |
|
| 342 |
+
def get_embedding_model():
|
| 343 |
+
global _EMB_MODEL
|
| 344 |
+
if _EMB_MODEL is None:
|
| 345 |
+
_EMB_MODEL = SentenceTransformer("FinLang/finance-embeddings-investopedia")
|
| 346 |
+
return _EMB_MODEL
|
| 347 |
+
|
| 348 |
+
def encode_texts(texts: List[str]):
|
| 349 |
+
model = get_embedding_model()
|
| 350 |
+
return model.encode(texts, normalize_embeddings=True)
|
| 351 |
+
|
| 352 |
+
def cosine_sim(a: np.ndarray, b: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
| 353 |
+
return (a @ b.T)
|
| 354 |
+
|
| 355 |
+
def select_bucket_candidates(df: pd.DataFrame, bucket: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 356 |
+
# bucket by sigma tertiles
|
| 357 |
+
q1 = df["sigma"].quantile(1/3)
|
| 358 |
+
q2 = df["sigma"].quantile(2/3)
|
| 359 |
+
if bucket == "Low":
|
| 360 |
+
return df[df["sigma"] <= q1]
|
| 361 |
+
if bucket == "Medium":
|
| 362 |
+
return df[(df["sigma"] > q1) & (df["sigma"] <= q2)]
|
| 363 |
+
return df[df["sigma"] > q2]
|
| 364 |
+
|
| 365 |
+
def parse_weights(row: pd.Series) -> Dict[str, float]:
|
| 366 |
+
ts = [t.strip() for t in str(row["tickers"]).split(",")]
|
| 367 |
+
ws = [float(x) for x in str(row["weights"]).split(",")]
|
| 368 |
+
wmap = {ts[i]: ws[i] for i in range(min(len(ts), len(ws)))}
|
| 369 |
+
# normalize just in case
|
| 370 |
+
s = sum(abs(v) for v in wmap.values()) or 1.0
|
| 371 |
+
return {k: v / s for k, v in wmap.items()}
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
def pick_top3_for_bucket(df: pd.DataFrame, bucket: str) -> List[Dict]:
|
| 374 |
+
cand = select_bucket_candidates(df, bucket)
|
| 375 |
+
if cand.empty:
|
| 376 |
return []
|
| 377 |
+
# Rank by embedding similarity to a short query
|
| 378 |
+
query_map = {
|
| 379 |
+
"Low": "low risk, stable portfolio, conservative volatility",
|
| 380 |
+
"Medium": "balanced risk portfolio, moderate volatility",
|
| 381 |
+
"High": "high risk, growth portfolio, higher volatility"
|
| 382 |
+
}
|
| 383 |
+
q = query_map[bucket]
|
| 384 |
+
embs_cand = encode_texts(cand["desc"].tolist())
|
| 385 |
+
emb_q = encode_texts([q])[0].reshape(1, -1)
|
| 386 |
+
sims = cosine_sim(emb_q, embs_cand).flatten()
|
| 387 |
+
order = np.argsort(-sims)
|
| 388 |
+
picks = []
|
| 389 |
+
for idx in order[:3]:
|
| 390 |
+
r = cand.iloc[int(idx)]
|
| 391 |
+
wmap = parse_weights(r)
|
| 392 |
+
picks.append({"weights": wmap, "beta": float(r["beta"]),
|
| 393 |
+
"er": float(r["er"]), "sigma": float(r["sigma"])})
|
|
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|
| 394 |
return picks
|
| 395 |
|
| 396 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 397 |
+
# Gradio callbacks
|
| 398 |
+
# ==============================
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
| 399 |
def search_tickers_cb(q: str):
|
| 400 |
hits = yahoo_search(q)
|
| 401 |
if not hits:
|
|
|
|
| 405 |
|
| 406 |
def add_symbol(selection: str, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 407 |
if not selection:
|
| 408 |
+
return table, "Pick a row from Matches first", gr.update(value=None)
|
| 409 |
symbol = selection.split("|")[0].strip().upper()
|
| 410 |
current = [] if table is None or len(table) == 0 else [str(x).upper() for x in table["ticker"].tolist() if str(x) != "nan"]
|
| 411 |
tickers = current if symbol in current else current + [symbol]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 412 |
val = validate_tickers(tickers, years=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS)
|
| 413 |
tickers = [t for t in tickers if t in val]
|
| 414 |
amt_map = {}
|
|
|
|
| 422 |
if len(new_table) > MAX_TICKERS:
|
| 423 |
new_table = new_table.iloc[:MAX_TICKERS]
|
| 424 |
msg = f"Reached max of {MAX_TICKERS}"
|
| 425 |
+
return new_table, msg, gr.update(value=None) # also clears dropdown
|
| 426 |
|
| 427 |
def lock_ticker_column(tb: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 428 |
if tb is None or len(tb) == 0:
|
|
|
|
| 439 |
code = fred_series_for_horizon(y)
|
| 440 |
rf = fetch_fred_yield_annual(code)
|
| 441 |
global HORIZON_YEARS, RF_CODE, RF_ANN
|
| 442 |
+
HORIZON_YEARS = y
|
| 443 |
RF_CODE = code
|
| 444 |
RF_ANN = rf
|
| 445 |
+
return f"Risk-free series {code}. Latest annual rate {rf:.2%}."
|
| 446 |
+
|
| 447 |
+
def build_summary_md(lookback, rf_code, rf, erp, sigma_mkt,
|
| 448 |
+
beta_p, er_capm, sigma_cml_user,
|
| 449 |
+
market_sym) -> str:
|
| 450 |
+
lines = []
|
| 451 |
+
lines.append("### Inputs")
|
| 452 |
+
lines.append(f"- Lookback years {lookback}")
|
| 453 |
+
lines.append(f"- Horizon years {int(round(HORIZON_YEARS))}")
|
| 454 |
+
lines.append(f"- Risk-free {fmt_pct(rf)} from {rf_code}")
|
| 455 |
+
lines.append(f"- Market ERP {fmt_pct(erp)}")
|
| 456 |
+
lines.append(f"- Market σ {fmt_pct(sigma_mkt)} (proxy: {market_sym})")
|
| 457 |
+
lines.append("")
|
| 458 |
+
lines.append("### Your portfolio (CAPM)")
|
| 459 |
+
lines.append(f"- Beta {beta_p:.2f}")
|
| 460 |
+
lines.append(f"- Expected return (CAPM / SML) {fmt_pct(er_capm)}")
|
| 461 |
+
lines.append(f"- σ on CML for your beta (|β|×σ_mkt) {fmt_pct(sigma_cml_user)}")
|
| 462 |
+
return "\n".join(lines)
|
| 463 |
+
|
| 464 |
+
def pack_suggestion_table(pick: Dict, gross_usd: float) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 465 |
+
rows = []
|
| 466 |
+
for t, w in sorted(pick["weights"].items(), key=lambda kv: -kv[1]):
|
| 467 |
+
rows.append({
|
| 468 |
+
"ticker": t,
|
| 469 |
+
"weight_pct": float(w) * 100.0,
|
| 470 |
+
"amount_usd": float(w) * float(gross_usd)
|
| 471 |
+
})
|
| 472 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=SUG_COLS)
|
| 473 |
+
|
| 474 |
+
def suggestion_metrics_md(pick: Dict) -> str:
|
| 475 |
+
return (
|
| 476 |
+
f"**Suggested portfolio** \n"
|
| 477 |
+
f"- Expected return (CAPM) {fmt_pct(pick['er'])} \n"
|
| 478 |
+
f"- σ (annual) {fmt_pct(pick['sigma'])} \n"
|
| 479 |
+
f"- Beta {pick['beta']:.2f}"
|
| 480 |
+
)
|
| 481 |
+
|
| 482 |
+
def compute(years_lookback: int,
|
| 483 |
+
table: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 484 |
+
risk_choice: str,
|
| 485 |
+
pick_choice: str):
|
| 486 |
+
# ---------- sanitize input table ----------
|
| 487 |
if table is None or len(table) == 0:
|
| 488 |
+
return None, "Add at least one ticker.", "Universe empty", empty_positions_df(), {}, gr.update(), gr.update(), "", empty_suggest_df()
|
| 489 |
|
| 490 |
df = table.dropna()
|
| 491 |
df["ticker"] = df["ticker"].astype(str).str.upper().str.strip()
|
| 492 |
df["amount_usd"] = pd.to_numeric(df["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0)
|
| 493 |
symbols = [t for t in df["ticker"].tolist() if t]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 494 |
|
| 495 |
symbols = validate_tickers(symbols, years_lookback)
|
| 496 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 497 |
+
return None, "Could not validate any tickers.", "Universe invalid", empty_positions_df(), {}, gr.update(), gr.update(), "", empty_suggest_df()
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 498 |
|
| 499 |
+
# ---------- amounts & weights ----------
|
| 500 |
+
amounts = {r["ticker"]: float(r["amount_usd"]) for _, r in df.iterrows() if r["ticker"] in symbols}
|
| 501 |
gross = sum(abs(v) for v in amounts.values())
|
| 502 |
+
if gross == 0:
|
| 503 |
+
return None, "All amounts are zero.", "Universe ok", empty_positions_df(), {}, gr.update(), gr.update(), "", empty_suggest_df()
|
| 504 |
+
weights_user = {k: v / gross for k, v in amounts.items()}
|
| 505 |
|
| 506 |
+
# ---------- risk-free & moments ----------
|
| 507 |
rf_ann = RF_ANN
|
| 508 |
moms = estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols, years_lookback, rf_ann)
|
| 509 |
+
betas, covA = moms["betas"], moms["cov_ann"]
|
| 510 |
+
erp_ann, sigma_mkt, market_sym = moms["erp_ann"], moms["sigma_m_ann"], moms["market"]
|
| 511 |
|
| 512 |
+
# ---------- user stats (CAPM) ----------
|
| 513 |
+
beta_p, er_capm, _sigma_hist = portfolio_stats(weights_user, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
| 514 |
+
sigma_user_on_cml = abs(beta_p) * sigma_mkt # plotted, ensures point on CML
|
| 515 |
|
| 516 |
+
# ---------- positions table ----------
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 517 |
rows = []
|
| 518 |
for t in symbols:
|
|
|
|
| 519 |
rows.append({
|
| 520 |
"ticker": t,
|
| 521 |
"amount_usd": amounts.get(t, 0.0),
|
| 522 |
+
"weight_exposure": weights_user.get(t, 0.0),
|
| 523 |
+
"beta": 1.0 if abs(betas.get(t, 0.0) - 1.0) < 1e-9 else betas.get(t, np.nan)
|
| 524 |
})
|
| 525 |
pos_table = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=POS_COLS)
|
| 526 |
|
| 527 |
+
# ---------- synthetic dataset ----------
|
| 528 |
+
ensure_data_dir()
|
| 529 |
+
synth_df = build_synthetic_dataset(
|
| 530 |
+
universe=list(sorted(set(symbols))),
|
| 531 |
+
rf_ann=rf_ann,
|
| 532 |
+
erp_ann=erp_ann,
|
| 533 |
+
betas=betas,
|
| 534 |
+
covA=covA,
|
| 535 |
+
n_rows=1000,
|
| 536 |
+
seed=123
|
| 537 |
+
)
|
| 538 |
+
try:
|
| 539 |
+
synth_df.to_csv(DATASET_PATH, index=False)
|
| 540 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 541 |
+
pass
|
| 542 |
+
|
| 543 |
+
# ---------- pick 3 per bucket using embeddings ----------
|
| 544 |
+
low3 = pick_top3_for_bucket(synth_df, "Low")
|
| 545 |
+
med3 = pick_top3_for_bucket(synth_df, "Medium")
|
| 546 |
+
high3 = pick_top3_for_bucket(synth_df, "High")
|
| 547 |
+
|
| 548 |
+
# ---------- build state ----------
|
| 549 |
+
state = {
|
| 550 |
+
"gross": float(gross),
|
| 551 |
+
"picks": {"Low": low3, "Medium": med3, "High": high3},
|
| 552 |
+
"rf": float(rf_ann),
|
| 553 |
+
"erp": float(erp_ann),
|
| 554 |
+
"sigma_mkt": float(sigma_mkt),
|
| 555 |
+
"user_beta": float(beta_p)
|
| 556 |
+
}
|
| 557 |
+
|
| 558 |
+
# ---------- decide which suggestion to show initially ----------
|
| 559 |
+
risk = risk_choice if risk_choice in ("Low", "Medium", "High") else "Medium"
|
| 560 |
+
pick_idx = 0 if pick_choice not in ("Pick #1", "Pick #2", "Pick #3") else ["Pick #1", "Pick #2", "Pick #3"].index(pick_choice)
|
| 561 |
+
picks_list = state["picks"].get(risk, [])
|
| 562 |
+
pick = picks_list[pick_idx] if pick_idx < len(picks_list) else (picks_list[0] if picks_list else None)
|
| 563 |
+
|
| 564 |
+
# ---------- plot ----------
|
| 565 |
+
img = plot_cml(rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt, beta_p, suggestion=pick)
|
| 566 |
+
|
| 567 |
+
# ---------- summary ----------
|
| 568 |
+
info = build_summary_md(
|
| 569 |
+
years_lookback, RF_CODE, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 570 |
+
beta_p, er_capm, sigma_user_on_cml, market_sym
|
| 571 |
)
|
|
|
|
| 572 |
|
| 573 |
+
# ---------- suggestion UI ----------
|
| 574 |
+
risk_update = gr.update(choices=["Low", "Medium", "High"], value=risk)
|
| 575 |
+
pick_update = gr.update(choices=["Pick #1", "Pick #2", "Pick #3"], value="Pick #1")
|
| 576 |
+
|
| 577 |
+
if pick is None:
|
| 578 |
+
return img, info, f"Universe set to {', '.join(sorted(symbols))}", pos_table, state, risk_update, pick_update, "No suggestions available.", empty_suggest_df()
|
| 579 |
+
|
| 580 |
+
sug_md = suggestion_metrics_md(pick)
|
| 581 |
+
sug_table = pack_suggestion_table(pick, gross)
|
| 582 |
+
|
| 583 |
+
return img, info, f"Universe set to {', '.join(sorted(symbols))}", pos_table, state, risk_update, pick_update, sug_md, sug_table
|
| 584 |
+
|
| 585 |
+
def update_suggestion(risk: str, pick_name: str, state: dict):
|
| 586 |
+
if not state or "picks" not in state:
|
| 587 |
+
return gr.update(), "", empty_suggest_df()
|
| 588 |
+
picks_list = state["picks"].get(risk, [])
|
| 589 |
+
if not picks_list:
|
| 590 |
+
return gr.update(), "No suggestions for this bucket.", empty_suggest_df()
|
| 591 |
+
idx = ["Pick #1", "Pick #2", "Pick #3"].index(pick_name) if pick_name in ("Pick #1", "Pick #2", "Pick #3") else 0
|
| 592 |
+
idx = min(idx, len(picks_list) - 1)
|
| 593 |
+
pick = picks_list[idx]
|
| 594 |
+
img = plot_cml(state["rf"], state["erp"], state["sigma_mkt"], state["user_beta"], suggestion=pick)
|
| 595 |
+
sug_md = suggestion_metrics_md(pick)
|
| 596 |
+
sug_table = pack_suggestion_table(pick, state.get("gross", 0.0))
|
| 597 |
+
return img, sug_md, sug_table
|
| 598 |
+
|
| 599 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 600 |
+
# Build UI
|
| 601 |
+
# ==============================
|
| 602 |
+
ensure_data_dir()
|
| 603 |
+
RF_CODE = fred_series_for_horizon(HORIZON_YEARS)
|
| 604 |
+
RF_ANN = fetch_fred_yield_annual(RF_CODE)
|
| 605 |
|
| 606 |
+
with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
| 607 |
gr.Markdown(
|
| 608 |
"## Efficient Portfolio Advisor\n"
|
| 609 |
+
"Search symbols, enter **dollar amounts**, set horizon. "
|
| 610 |
+
"Returns are from Yahoo Finance (monthly). Risk-free is from FRED. "
|
| 611 |
+
"Plot shows **CAPM point on the CML** (no historical returns plotted)."
|
| 612 |
)
|
| 613 |
|
| 614 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 615 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 616 |
q = gr.Textbox(label="Search symbol")
|
| 617 |
search_note = gr.Markdown()
|
| 618 |
+
matches = gr.Dropdown(choices=[], label="Matches", allow_custom_value=True)
|
| 619 |
+
search_btn = gr.Button("Search")
|
| 620 |
+
add_btn = gr.Button("Add selected to portfolio")
|
|
|
|
| 621 |
|
| 622 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Portfolio positions (enter $ amounts; negatives allowed for shorts)")
|
| 623 |
table = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 624 |
headers=["ticker", "amount_usd"],
|
| 625 |
datatype=["str", "number"],
|
|
|
|
| 628 |
)
|
| 629 |
|
| 630 |
horizon = gr.Number(label="Horizon in years (1–100)", value=HORIZON_YEARS, precision=0)
|
| 631 |
+
lookback = gr.Slider(1, 10, value=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS, step=1, label="Lookback years for betas & covariances")
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 632 |
|
| 633 |
+
run_btn = gr.Button("Compute")
|
| 634 |
|
| 635 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 636 |
+
plot = gr.Image(label="Capital Market Line (CAPM)", type="pil")
|
| 637 |
+
summary = gr.Markdown(label="Summary")
|
| 638 |
universe_msg = gr.Textbox(label="Universe status", interactive=False)
|
| 639 |
|
| 640 |
positions = gr.Dataframe(
|
|
|
|
| 646 |
interactive=False
|
| 647 |
)
|
| 648 |
|
| 649 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Dataset-based suggestions (choose risk bucket and pick)")
|
| 650 |
+
state = gr.State({})
|
| 651 |
+
risk_selector = gr.Radio(choices=["Low", "Medium", "High"], value="Medium", label="Risk bucket to view")
|
| 652 |
+
pick_selector = gr.Radio(choices=["Pick #1", "Pick #2", "Pick #3"], value="Pick #1", label="Suggestion")
|
| 653 |
+
sugg_metrics = gr.Markdown(label="Suggestion metrics")
|
| 654 |
+
suggestions = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 655 |
+
label="Suggested holdings",
|
| 656 |
+
headers=SUG_COLS,
|
| 657 |
datatype=["str", "number", "number"],
|
| 658 |
+
col_count=(len(SUG_COLS), "fixed"),
|
| 659 |
value=empty_suggest_df(),
|
| 660 |
interactive=False
|
| 661 |
)
|
|
|
|
| 662 |
|
| 663 |
+
# --- wiring ---
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 664 |
def do_search(query):
|
| 665 |
note, options = search_tickers_cb(query)
|
| 666 |
+
# Clear previous selection to avoid “not in choices”
|
| 667 |
+
return note, gr.update(choices=options, value=None)
|
| 668 |
|
| 669 |
search_btn.click(fn=do_search, inputs=q, outputs=[search_note, matches])
|
| 670 |
+
add_btn.click(fn=add_symbol, inputs=[matches, table], outputs=[table, search_note, matches])
|
| 671 |
table.change(fn=lock_ticker_column, inputs=table, outputs=table)
|
| 672 |
horizon.change(fn=set_horizon, inputs=horizon, outputs=universe_msg)
|
| 673 |
|
| 674 |
run_btn.click(
|
| 675 |
fn=compute,
|
| 676 |
+
inputs=[lookback, table, risk_selector, pick_selector],
|
| 677 |
+
outputs=[plot, summary, universe_msg, positions, state, risk_selector, pick_selector, sugg_metrics, suggestions]
|
| 678 |
)
|
| 679 |
|
| 680 |
+
# Update suggestion view without recomputing moments
|
| 681 |
+
risk_selector.change(
|
| 682 |
+
fn=update_suggestion,
|
| 683 |
+
inputs=[risk_selector, pick_selector, state],
|
| 684 |
+
outputs=[plot, sugg_metrics, suggestions]
|
| 685 |
+
)
|
| 686 |
+
pick_selector.change(
|
| 687 |
+
fn=update_suggestion,
|
| 688 |
+
inputs=[risk_selector, pick_selector, state],
|
| 689 |
+
outputs=[plot, sugg_metrics, suggestions]
|
| 690 |
)
|
| 691 |
|
| 692 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|