Update app.py
Browse files
app.py
CHANGED
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import io
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import math
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import warnings
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warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
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from typing import List, Tuple, Dict, Optional
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@@ -9,75 +7,62 @@ from typing import List, Tuple, Dict, Optional
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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from PIL import Image
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import requests
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import yfinance as yf
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#
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# ---------------- config ----------------
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DATA_DIR = "data"
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DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS = 5
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POS_COLS = ["ticker", "amount_usd", "weight_exposure", "beta"]
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SUG_COLS = ["ticker", "
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FRED_MAP = [
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(1, "DGS1"),
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(
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(
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(5, "DGS5"),
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(7, "DGS7"),
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(10, "DGS10"),
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(20, "DGS20"),
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(30, "DGS30"),
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(100, "DGS30"),
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]
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#
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EMB_MODEL_NAME = "FinLang/finance-embeddings-investopedia"
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# ---------------- globals (runtime) ----------------
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HORIZON_YEARS = 5.0
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RF_CODE = "DGS5"
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RF_ANN = 0.
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UNIVERSE: List[str] = [MARKET_TICKER, "QQQ", "XLK", "XLP", "XLE", "VNQ", "IEF", "HYG", "GLD", "EEM"]
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LAST_DATASET_PATH: Optional[str] = None
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LAST_UNIVERSE: Optional[List[str]] = None
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LAST_PLOT_STATE: Optional[Dict[str, float]] = None
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# embedding caches
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_EMB_MODEL = None
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_DS_TEXTS = None
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_DS_EMBS = None
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_DS_CACHE_KEY = None # (csv_path, tuple(universe))
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# ---------------- helpers ----------------
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def ensure_data_dir():
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os.makedirs(DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
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return pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS)
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def empty_suggest_df():
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return pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS)
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def fmt_pct(x: float) -> str:
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return f"{x*100:.2f}%"
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def fred_series_for_horizon(years: float) -> str:
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y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
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for cutoff, code in FRED_MAP:
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return code
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return "DGS30"
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def fetch_fred_yield_annual(code: str) -> float:
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url = f"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id={code}"
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try:
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@@ -97,8 +81,7 @@ def fetch_fred_yield_annual(code: str) -> float:
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except Exception:
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return 0.03
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# -------- Yahoo symbol search ----------
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def yahoo_search(query: str):
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if not query or len(query.strip()) == 0:
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return []
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if sym and sym.isascii():
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out.append({"symbol": sym, "name": name, "exchange": exch})
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if not out:
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out = [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n
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return out[:10]
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except Exception:
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return [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n
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# --------- prices / returns ----------
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def _extract_close(df: pd.DataFrame, tickers: List[str]) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""
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Robustly extract a (date x ticker) Close DataFrame regardless of yf's column layout.
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"""
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if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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lv0 = df.columns.get_level_values(0)
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lv1 = df.columns.get_level_values(1)
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if "Close" in lv0:
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close = df["Close"]
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elif "Adj Close" in lv0:
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close = df["Adj Close"]
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elif "Close" in lv1:
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close = df.xs("Close", level=1, axis=1)
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elif "Adj Close" in lv1:
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close = df.xs("Adj Close", level=1, axis=1)
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else:
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# fallback: if first level are tickers
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# try to select 'Close' under each
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try:
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close = df.xs("Close", level=1, axis=1)
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except Exception:
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close = df.copy()
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else:
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# Single ticker case
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if "Close" in df.columns:
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s = df["Close"].copy()
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elif "Adj Close" in df.columns:
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s = df["Adj Close"].copy()
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else:
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# last resort: take any one numeric column
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s = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).iloc[:, 0]
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# ensure column named as ticker
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name = tickers[0] if len(tickers) else "T0"
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close = s.to_frame(name=name)
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# Reindex columns to requested order where possible
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# If some symbols missing, they simply won't be present
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close = close.dropna(how="all").ffill()
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# Keep only requested tickers, in order
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cols = [c for c in tickers if c in close.columns]
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if not cols: # if nothing matched, keep whatever is there
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close = close.copy()
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else:
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close = close[cols]
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return close
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def fetch_prices_monthly(tickers: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
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start = pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC") - pd.DateOffset(years=years, days=7)
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end = pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC")
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list(dict.fromkeys(tickers)),
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start=start.date(),
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)
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return close
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def monthly_returns(prices: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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return prices.pct_change().dropna(
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def annualize_mean(m):
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return np.asarray(m, dtype=float) * 12.0
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def annualize_sigma(s):
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return np.asarray(s, dtype=float) * math.sqrt(12.0)
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def validate_tickers(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> List[str]:
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return ok
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# -------------- aligned moments --------------
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def get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
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uniq = [c for c in dict.fromkeys(symbols) if c]
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tickers = uniq
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# Ensure market present (try MARKET_TICKER then fallback to SPY)
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market_ok = MARKET_TICKER in tickers
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if not market_ok:
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tickers.append(MARKET_TICKER)
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px = fetch_prices_monthly(tickers, years)
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if MARKET_TICKER not in px.columns:
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# fallback to SPY if VOO missing
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if "SPY" not in tickers:
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tickers.append("SPY")
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px2 = fetch_prices_monthly(tickers, years)
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if "SPY" in px2.columns:
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px = px2
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else:
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pass # keep px as-is
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rets = monthly_returns(px)
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keep += [MARKET_TICKER]
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elif "SPY" in rets.columns:
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keep += ["SPY"]
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R = rets[keep].dropna(how="any")
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return R.loc[:, ~R.columns.duplicated()]
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def estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols: List[str], years: int, rf_ann: float):
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R = get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols, years)
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raise ValueError("Not enough aligned data including market")
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rf_m = rf_ann / 12.0
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if isinstance(m, pd.DataFrame):
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m = m.iloc[:, 0].squeeze()
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mu_m_ann = float(
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sigma_m_ann = float(
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erp_ann = float(mu_m_ann - rf_ann)
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ex_m = m - rf_m
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var_m = float(np.var(ex_m.values, ddof=1))
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var_m = max(var_m, 1e-
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betas: Dict[str, float] = {}
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for s in
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ex_s = R[s] - rf_m
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def capm_er(beta: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float) -> float:
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return float(rf_ann + beta * erp_ann)
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def portfolio_stats(weights: Dict[str, float],
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cov_ann: pd.DataFrame,
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betas: Dict[str, float],
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rf_ann: float,
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erp_ann: float) -> Tuple[float, float, float]:
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tickers = list(weights.keys())
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if len(tickers) == 0:
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return 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
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w = np.array([weights[t] for t in tickers], dtype=float)
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gross = float(np.sum(np.abs(w)))
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if gross == 0:
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sigma_p = math.sqrt(float(max(w_expo.T @ cov @ w_expo, 0.0)))
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return beta_p, er_p, sigma_p
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# -------------- CML helpers --------------
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def efficient_same_sigma(sigma_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
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if sigma_mkt <= 1e-12:
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return 0.0, 1.0, rf_ann
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a = sigma_target / sigma_mkt
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return a, 1
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def efficient_same_return(mu_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
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if abs(erp_ann) <= 1e-12:
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return 0.0, 1.0, rf_ann
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a = (mu_target - rf_ann) / erp_ann
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return a, 1
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same_mu_sigma, same_mu_mu,
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targ_sigma=None, targ_mu=None
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) -> Image.Image:
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fig = plt.figure(figsize=(6, 4), dpi=120)
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xmax = max(
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0.3,
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sigma_mkt * 2.0,
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pt_sigma * 1.4,
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(
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xs = np.linspace(0, xmax, 160)
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slope = erp_ann / max(sigma_mkt, 1e-12)
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cml = rf_ann + slope * xs
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plt.plot(xs, cml, label="CML via Market"
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#
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plt.scatter([0.0], [rf_ann], label="Risk-free (FRED)")
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plt.scatter([sigma_mkt], [rf_ann + erp_ann], label="Market")
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plt.scatter([pt_sigma], [pt_mu], label="Your portfolio"
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plt.xlabel("σ (annualized)")
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plt.ylabel("Expected return (annual)")
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plt.legend(loc="best")
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plt.tight_layout()
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buf.seek(0)
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return Image.open(buf)
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def
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#
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covA, betas = moms["cov_ann"], moms["betas"]
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rows, rng = [], np.random.default_rng(123)
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n = 1000
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for i in range(n):
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k = rng.integers(low=min(2, len(symbols)), high=min(8, len(symbols)) + 1)
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picks = list(rng.choice(symbols, size=k, replace=False))
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signs = rng.choice([-1.0, 1.0], size=k, p=[0.
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raw = rng.dirichlet(np.ones(k))
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gross = 1.0 + float(rng.gamma(2.0, 0.5))
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w = gross * signs * raw
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"id": i,
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"tickers": ",".join(picks),
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"weights": ",".join(f"{x:.
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"er_p": er_p,
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"sigma_p": sigma_p
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"beta_p": beta_p
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})
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def save_synth_csv(df: pd.DataFrame, path: str = DATASET_PATH):
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os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True)
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df.to_csv(path, index=False)
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def _weights_top_phrase(universe, w, top=4):
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pairs = sorted([(universe[i], abs(float(w[i]))) for i in range(len(universe))],
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key=lambda t: -t[1])[:top]
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parts = [f"{t} {p*100:.1f}%" for t, p in pairs if p > 1e-4]
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return ", ".join(parts)
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def portfolio_to_sentence(universe, w, er, sigma, beta):
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return (f"portfolio with volatility {sigma*100:.2f} percent, "
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f"expected return {er*100:.2f} percent, beta {beta:.2f}, "
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f"weights mostly in {_weights_top_phrase(universe, w)}")
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def
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| 431 |
-
|
| 432 |
-
texts = []
|
| 433 |
rows = []
|
| 434 |
for _, r in df.iterrows():
|
| 435 |
-
|
| 436 |
-
|
| 437 |
-
wmap = {ts[i]: ws[i] for i in range(min(len(ts), len(ws)))}
|
| 438 |
-
w = np.array([wmap.get(t, 0.0) for t in universe], dtype=float)
|
| 439 |
-
g = np.sum(np.abs(w))
|
| 440 |
-
if g <= 1e-12:
|
| 441 |
continue
|
| 442 |
-
|
| 443 |
-
|
| 444 |
-
txt = portfolio_to_sentence(universe, w, er, sigma, beta)
|
| 445 |
-
texts.append(txt); rows.append((w, er, sigma, beta))
|
| 446 |
-
|
| 447 |
-
model = _get_emb_model()
|
| 448 |
-
embs = model.encode(texts, normalize_embeddings=True, show_progress_bar=False)
|
| 449 |
-
_DS_TEXTS, _DS_EMBS, _DS_CACHE_KEY = (rows, embs, cache_key)
|
| 450 |
-
return _DS_TEXTS, _DS_EMBS
|
| 451 |
-
|
| 452 |
-
|
| 453 |
-
def pick_low_med_high(csv_path: str, universe: List[str]):
|
| 454 |
-
df = pd.read_csv(csv_path)
|
| 455 |
-
rows = []
|
| 456 |
-
for _, r in df.iterrows():
|
| 457 |
ws = [float(x) for x in str(r["weights"]).split(",")]
|
| 458 |
-
|
| 459 |
-
|
| 460 |
-
|
| 461 |
-
|
| 462 |
-
|
| 463 |
-
|
| 464 |
-
|
| 465 |
-
rows.append((x, float(r["er_p"]), float(r["sigma_p"]), float(r["beta_p"])))
|
| 466 |
if not rows:
|
| 467 |
-
return
|
| 468 |
-
|
| 469 |
-
|
| 470 |
-
|
| 471 |
-
|
| 472 |
-
|
| 473 |
-
if
|
| 474 |
-
|
| 475 |
-
|
| 476 |
-
|
| 477 |
-
|
| 478 |
-
|
| 479 |
-
|
| 480 |
-
|
| 481 |
-
|
| 482 |
-
|
| 483 |
-
|
| 484 |
-
|
| 485 |
-
|
| 486 |
-
|
| 487 |
-
|
| 488 |
-
|
| 489 |
-
|
| 490 |
-
|
| 491 |
-
|
| 492 |
-
|
| 493 |
-
|
| 494 |
-
|
| 495 |
-
|
| 496 |
-
|
| 497 |
-
|
| 498 |
-
|
| 499 |
-
|
| 500 |
-
|
| 501 |
-
|
| 502 |
-
|
| 503 |
-
|
| 504 |
-
|
| 505 |
-
|
| 506 |
-
|
| 507 |
-
|
| 508 |
-
|
| 509 |
-
|
| 510 |
-
|
| 511 |
-
|
| 512 |
-
|
| 513 |
-
|
| 514 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 515 |
def build_summary_md(lookback, horizon, rf, rf_code, erp, sigma_mkt,
|
| 516 |
beta_p, er_p, sigma_p,
|
| 517 |
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 518 |
-
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 519 |
lines = []
|
| 520 |
lines.append("### Inputs")
|
| 521 |
-
lines.append(f"- Lookback years **{lookback}**")
|
| 522 |
-
lines.append(f"- Horizon years **{int(round(horizon))}**")
|
| 523 |
-
lines.append(f"- Risk
|
| 524 |
-
lines.append(f"- Market ERP **{fmt_pct(erp)}**")
|
| 525 |
-
lines.append(f"- Market
|
| 526 |
lines.append("")
|
| 527 |
lines.append("### Your portfolio (CAPM expectations)")
|
| 528 |
-
lines.append(f"- Beta **{beta_p:.2f}**")
|
| 529 |
-
lines.append(f"-
|
| 530 |
-
lines.append(f"- Expected return **{fmt_pct(er_p)}**")
|
| 531 |
lines.append("")
|
| 532 |
lines.append("### Efficient alternatives on CML")
|
| 533 |
-
lines.append("
|
| 534 |
-
lines.append(f"-
|
| 535 |
-
lines.append(f"- Expected return **{fmt_pct(mu_eff_sigma)}**")
|
| 536 |
lines.append("")
|
| 537 |
-
lines.append("
|
| 538 |
-
|
| 539 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 540 |
return "\n".join(lines)
|
| 541 |
|
| 542 |
-
|
| 543 |
-
# -------------- gradio callbacks --------------
|
| 544 |
def search_tickers_cb(q: str):
|
| 545 |
hits = yahoo_search(q)
|
| 546 |
if not hits:
|
|
@@ -548,7 +450,6 @@ def search_tickers_cb(q: str):
|
|
| 548 |
opts = [f"{h['symbol']} | {h['name']} | {h['exchange']}" for h in hits]
|
| 549 |
return "Select a symbol and click Add", opts
|
| 550 |
|
| 551 |
-
|
| 552 |
def add_symbol(selection: str, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 553 |
if not selection:
|
| 554 |
return table, "Pick a row from Matches first"
|
|
@@ -570,7 +471,6 @@ def add_symbol(selection: str, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
|
| 570 |
msg = f"Reached max of {MAX_TICKERS}"
|
| 571 |
return new_table, msg
|
| 572 |
|
| 573 |
-
|
| 574 |
def lock_ticker_column(tb: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 575 |
if tb is None or len(tb) == 0:
|
| 576 |
return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ticker", "amount_usd"])
|
|
@@ -581,7 +481,6 @@ def lock_ticker_column(tb: pd.DataFrame):
|
|
| 581 |
amounts = amounts[:len(tickers)] + [0.0] * max(0, len(tickers) - len(amounts))
|
| 582 |
return pd.DataFrame({"ticker": tickers, "amount_usd": amounts})
|
| 583 |
|
| 584 |
-
|
| 585 |
def set_horizon(years: float):
|
| 586 |
y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
|
| 587 |
code = fred_series_for_horizon(y)
|
|
@@ -590,38 +489,40 @@ def set_horizon(years: float):
|
|
| 590 |
HORIZON_YEARS = y
|
| 591 |
RF_CODE = code
|
| 592 |
RF_ANN = rf
|
| 593 |
-
return f"Risk free series {code}. Latest annual rate {rf:.2%}. Will be used
|
| 594 |
-
|
| 595 |
-
|
| 596 |
-
def compute(years_lookback: int, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 597 |
-
if table is None or len(table) == 0:
|
| 598 |
-
return None, "Add at least one ticker", "Universe empty", empty_positions_df(), empty_suggest_df(), None
|
| 599 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 600 |
df = table.dropna()
|
| 601 |
df["ticker"] = df["ticker"].astype(str).str.upper().str.strip()
|
| 602 |
df["amount_usd"] = pd.to_numeric(df["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0)
|
| 603 |
|
| 604 |
symbols = [t for t in df["ticker"].tolist() if t]
|
| 605 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 606 |
-
return None, "Add at least one ticker", "Universe empty",
|
| 607 |
|
| 608 |
symbols = validate_tickers(symbols, years_lookback)
|
| 609 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 610 |
-
return None, "Could not validate any tickers", "Universe invalid",
|
| 611 |
|
| 612 |
-
|
| 613 |
-
|
| 614 |
|
| 615 |
-
|
| 616 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 617 |
rf_ann = RF_ANN
|
| 618 |
|
| 619 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 620 |
betas, covA, erp_ann, sigma_mkt = moms["betas"], moms["cov_ann"], moms["erp_ann"], moms["sigma_m_ann"]
|
| 621 |
|
| 622 |
gross = sum(abs(v) for v in amounts.values())
|
| 623 |
if gross == 0:
|
| 624 |
-
return None, "All amounts are zero", "Universe ok",
|
| 625 |
weights = {k: v / gross for k, v in amounts.items()}
|
| 626 |
|
| 627 |
beta_p, er_p, sigma_p = portfolio_stats(weights, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
|
@@ -629,53 +530,72 @@ def compute(years_lookback: int, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
|
| 629 |
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma = efficient_same_sigma(sigma_p, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 630 |
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu = efficient_same_return(er_p, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 631 |
|
| 632 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 633 |
rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 634 |
sigma_p, er_p,
|
| 635 |
sigma_p, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 636 |
sigma_eff_mu, er_p,
|
| 637 |
-
|
| 638 |
)
|
| 639 |
|
|
|
|
| 640 |
info = build_summary_md(
|
| 641 |
years_lookback, HORIZON_YEARS, rf_ann, RF_CODE, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 642 |
beta_p, er_p, sigma_p,
|
| 643 |
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 644 |
-
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 645 |
)
|
| 646 |
|
|
|
|
| 647 |
rows = []
|
| 648 |
-
for t in
|
| 649 |
-
beta_val = 1.0 if abs(betas.get(t, 0.0) - 1.0) < 1e-6 else betas.get(t, np.nan)
|
| 650 |
rows.append({
|
| 651 |
"ticker": t,
|
| 652 |
"amount_usd": amounts.get(t, 0.0),
|
| 653 |
"weight_exposure": weights.get(t, 0.0),
|
| 654 |
-
"beta":
|
| 655 |
})
|
| 656 |
pos_table = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=POS_COLS)
|
| 657 |
|
| 658 |
-
#
|
| 659 |
-
|
| 660 |
-
|
| 661 |
-
|
| 662 |
-
|
| 663 |
-
|
| 664 |
-
|
| 665 |
-
|
| 666 |
-
|
| 667 |
-
|
| 668 |
-
|
| 669 |
-
|
| 670 |
-
|
| 671 |
-
|
| 672 |
-
|
| 673 |
-
|
| 674 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 675 |
|
| 676 |
-
#
|
| 677 |
ensure_data_dir()
|
| 678 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 679 |
HORIZON_YEARS = 5.0
|
| 680 |
RF_CODE = fred_series_for_horizon(HORIZON_YEARS)
|
| 681 |
RF_ANN = fetch_fred_yield_annual(RF_CODE)
|
|
@@ -684,8 +604,9 @@ with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
|
| 684 |
gr.Markdown(
|
| 685 |
"## Efficient Portfolio Advisor\n"
|
| 686 |
"Search symbols, enter dollar amounts, set your horizon. "
|
| 687 |
-
"Prices from Yahoo Finance
|
| 688 |
-
"Low/Medium/High suggestions
|
|
|
|
| 689 |
)
|
| 690 |
|
| 691 |
with gr.Row():
|
|
@@ -693,8 +614,9 @@ with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
|
| 693 |
q = gr.Textbox(label="Search symbol")
|
| 694 |
search_note = gr.Markdown()
|
| 695 |
matches = gr.Dropdown(choices=[], label="Matches")
|
| 696 |
-
|
| 697 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 698 |
|
| 699 |
gr.Markdown("### Portfolio positions — type dollar amounts (negatives allowed for shorts)")
|
| 700 |
table = gr.Dataframe(
|
|
@@ -704,41 +626,38 @@ with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
|
| 704 |
col_count=(2, "fixed")
|
| 705 |
)
|
| 706 |
|
| 707 |
-
horizon = gr.Number(label="Horizon in years (1–100)", value=
|
| 708 |
-
lookback = gr.Slider(1, 10, value=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS, step=1, label="Lookback years for beta
|
| 709 |
|
| 710 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 711 |
|
| 712 |
-
gr.
|
| 713 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 714 |
-
btn_low = gr.Button("Suggest LOW risk")
|
| 715 |
-
btn_med = gr.Button("Suggest MEDIUM risk")
|
| 716 |
-
btn_high = gr.Button("Suggest HIGH risk")
|
| 717 |
|
| 718 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 719 |
plot = gr.Image(label="Capital Market Line (CML)", type="pil")
|
| 720 |
summary = gr.Markdown(label="Summary")
|
| 721 |
-
universe_msg = gr.Textbox(label="
|
| 722 |
positions = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 723 |
label="Computed positions",
|
| 724 |
headers=POS_COLS,
|
| 725 |
datatype=["str", "number", "number", "number"],
|
| 726 |
col_count=(len(POS_COLS), "fixed"),
|
| 727 |
-
value=
|
| 728 |
interactive=False
|
| 729 |
)
|
| 730 |
suggestions = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 731 |
-
label="
|
| 732 |
headers=SUG_COLS,
|
| 733 |
-
datatype=["str", "number"],
|
| 734 |
col_count=(len(SUG_COLS), "fixed"),
|
| 735 |
-
value=
|
| 736 |
interactive=False
|
| 737 |
)
|
| 738 |
-
|
| 739 |
-
dl = gr.File(label="Generated dataset (CSV)", value=None, visible=True)
|
| 740 |
|
| 741 |
-
#
|
| 742 |
def do_search(query):
|
| 743 |
note, options = search_tickers_cb(query)
|
| 744 |
return note, gr.update(choices=options)
|
|
@@ -749,26 +668,10 @@ with gr.Blocks(title="Efficient Portfolio Advisor") as demo:
|
|
| 749 |
horizon.change(fn=set_horizon, inputs=horizon, outputs=universe_msg)
|
| 750 |
|
| 751 |
run_btn.click(
|
| 752 |
-
fn=
|
| 753 |
-
inputs=[lookback, table],
|
| 754 |
outputs=[plot, summary, universe_msg, positions, suggestions, dl]
|
| 755 |
)
|
| 756 |
|
| 757 |
-
def do_low():
|
| 758 |
-
df, msg, img = suggest_level("low")
|
| 759 |
-
return df, msg, (img if img is not None else gr.update())
|
| 760 |
-
|
| 761 |
-
def do_med():
|
| 762 |
-
df, msg, img = suggest_level("medium")
|
| 763 |
-
return df, msg, (img if img is not None else gr.update())
|
| 764 |
-
|
| 765 |
-
def do_high():
|
| 766 |
-
df, msg, img = suggest_level("high")
|
| 767 |
-
return df, msg, (img if img is not None else gr.update())
|
| 768 |
-
|
| 769 |
-
btn_low.click(fn=do_low, inputs=None, outputs=[suggestions, sugg_msg, plot])
|
| 770 |
-
btn_med.click(fn=do_med, inputs=None, outputs=[suggestions, sugg_msg, plot])
|
| 771 |
-
btn_high.click(fn=do_high, inputs=None, outputs=[suggestions, sugg_msg, plot])
|
| 772 |
-
|
| 773 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 774 |
demo.launch()
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# app.py
|
| 2 |
+
import os, io, math, json, hashlib, warnings
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
|
| 4 |
|
| 5 |
from typing import List, Tuple, Dict, Optional
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
import numpy as np
|
| 8 |
import pandas as pd
|
| 9 |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 10 |
+
from matplotlib.ticker import PercentFormatter
|
| 11 |
from PIL import Image
|
| 12 |
+
|
| 13 |
+
import gradio as gr
|
| 14 |
import requests
|
| 15 |
import yfinance as yf
|
| 16 |
|
| 17 |
+
# Optional embeddings (lazy-loaded)
|
| 18 |
+
_EMBED_MODEL = None
|
| 19 |
+
def get_embed_model():
|
| 20 |
+
global _EMBED_MODEL
|
| 21 |
+
if _EMBED_MODEL is None:
|
| 22 |
+
try:
|
| 23 |
+
from sentence_transformers import SentenceTransformer
|
| 24 |
+
_EMBED_MODEL = SentenceTransformer("FinLang/finance-embeddings-investopedia")
|
| 25 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 26 |
+
_EMBED_MODEL = False
|
| 27 |
+
return _EMBED_MODEL
|
| 28 |
|
| 29 |
# ---------------- config ----------------
|
| 30 |
DATA_DIR = "data"
|
| 31 |
+
os.makedirs(DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
|
| 32 |
|
| 33 |
+
MARKET_TICKER = "VOO" # “market” proxy
|
| 34 |
DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS = 5
|
| 35 |
+
MAX_TICKERS = 30
|
| 36 |
+
SYNTH_ROWS = 1000
|
| 37 |
|
| 38 |
+
# UI tables
|
| 39 |
POS_COLS = ["ticker", "amount_usd", "weight_exposure", "beta"]
|
| 40 |
+
SUG_COLS = ["pick", "ticker", "weight_exposure", "er_%", "sigma_%", "beta"]
|
| 41 |
|
| 42 |
+
# FRED tenor map
|
| 43 |
FRED_MAP = [
|
| 44 |
+
(1, "DGS1"), (2, "DGS2"), (3, "DGS3"),
|
| 45 |
+
(5, "DGS5"), (7, "DGS7"), (10, "DGS10"),
|
| 46 |
+
(20, "DGS20"), (30, "DGS30"), (100, "DGS30"),
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 47 |
]
|
| 48 |
|
| 49 |
+
# Session globals
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 50 |
HORIZON_YEARS = 5.0
|
| 51 |
RF_CODE = "DGS5"
|
| 52 |
+
RF_ANN = 0.02
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 53 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 54 |
def ensure_data_dir():
|
| 55 |
os.makedirs(DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
|
| 56 |
|
| 57 |
+
def dataset_path_for_universe(universe: List[str]) -> str:
|
| 58 |
+
# unique file per universe (order-independent)
|
| 59 |
+
key = hashlib.sha256((",".join(sorted(universe))).encode()).hexdigest()[:10]
|
| 60 |
+
return os.path.join(DATA_DIR, f"investor_profiles_{key}.csv")
|
| 61 |
|
| 62 |
+
# ---------------- tiny utils ----------------
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 63 |
def fmt_pct(x: float) -> str:
|
| 64 |
return f"{x*100:.2f}%"
|
| 65 |
|
|
|
|
| 66 |
def fred_series_for_horizon(years: float) -> str:
|
| 67 |
y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
|
| 68 |
for cutoff, code in FRED_MAP:
|
|
|
|
| 70 |
return code
|
| 71 |
return "DGS30"
|
| 72 |
|
|
|
|
| 73 |
def fetch_fred_yield_annual(code: str) -> float:
|
| 74 |
url = f"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id={code}"
|
| 75 |
try:
|
|
|
|
| 81 |
except Exception:
|
| 82 |
return 0.03
|
| 83 |
|
| 84 |
+
# ---------------- Yahoo search ----------------
|
|
|
|
| 85 |
def yahoo_search(query: str):
|
| 86 |
if not query or len(query.strip()) == 0:
|
| 87 |
return []
|
|
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|
| 100 |
if sym and sym.isascii():
|
| 101 |
out.append({"symbol": sym, "name": name, "exchange": exch})
|
| 102 |
if not out:
|
| 103 |
+
out = [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n/a"}]
|
| 104 |
return out[:10]
|
| 105 |
except Exception:
|
| 106 |
+
return [{"symbol": query.strip().upper(), "name": "typed symbol", "exchange": "n/a"}]
|
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|
| 107 |
|
| 108 |
def fetch_prices_monthly(tickers: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 109 |
start = pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC") - pd.DateOffset(years=years, days=7)
|
| 110 |
end = pd.Timestamp.today(tz="UTC")
|
| 111 |
+
df = yf.download(
|
| 112 |
list(dict.fromkeys(tickers)),
|
| 113 |
+
start=start.date(), end=end.date(),
|
| 114 |
+
interval="1mo", auto_adjust=True, progress=False
|
| 115 |
+
)["Close"]
|
| 116 |
+
if isinstance(df, pd.Series):
|
| 117 |
+
df = df.to_frame()
|
| 118 |
+
df = df.dropna(how="all").fillna(method="ffill")
|
| 119 |
+
return df
|
|
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|
|
|
|
| 120 |
|
| 121 |
def monthly_returns(prices: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 122 |
+
return prices.pct_change().dropna()
|
|
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|
| 123 |
|
| 124 |
def validate_tickers(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> List[str]:
|
| 125 |
+
ok, df = [], fetch_prices_monthly(list(set(symbols)), years)
|
| 126 |
+
for s in symbols:
|
| 127 |
+
if s in df.columns:
|
| 128 |
+
ok.append(s)
|
| 129 |
return ok
|
| 130 |
|
| 131 |
+
# ---------------- moments (aligned) ----------------
|
|
|
|
| 132 |
def get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols: List[str], years: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 133 |
+
uniq = [c for c in dict.fromkeys(symbols) if c != MARKET_TICKER]
|
| 134 |
+
tickers = uniq + [MARKET_TICKER]
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
| 135 |
px = fetch_prices_monthly(tickers, years)
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
| 136 |
rets = monthly_returns(px)
|
| 137 |
+
cols = [c for c in uniq if c in rets.columns] + ([MARKET_TICKER] if MARKET_TICKER in rets.columns else [])
|
| 138 |
+
R = rets[cols].dropna(how="any")
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 139 |
return R.loc[:, ~R.columns.duplicated()]
|
| 140 |
|
|
|
|
| 141 |
def estimate_all_moments_aligned(symbols: List[str], years: int, rf_ann: float):
|
| 142 |
+
R = get_aligned_monthly_returns(symbols + [MARKET_TICKER], years)
|
| 143 |
+
if MARKET_TICKER not in R.columns or R.shape[0] < 3:
|
| 144 |
+
raise ValueError("Not enough aligned market data")
|
|
|
|
| 145 |
|
| 146 |
rf_m = rf_ann / 12.0
|
| 147 |
+
|
| 148 |
+
# market series
|
| 149 |
+
m = R[MARKET_TICKER]
|
| 150 |
if isinstance(m, pd.DataFrame):
|
| 151 |
m = m.iloc[:, 0].squeeze()
|
| 152 |
|
| 153 |
+
mu_m_ann = float(m.mean() * 12.0)
|
| 154 |
+
sigma_m_ann = float(m.std(ddof=1) * math.sqrt(12.0))
|
| 155 |
erp_ann = float(mu_m_ann - rf_ann)
|
| 156 |
|
| 157 |
ex_m = m - rf_m
|
| 158 |
var_m = float(np.var(ex_m.values, ddof=1))
|
| 159 |
+
var_m = max(var_m, 1e-10)
|
| 160 |
|
| 161 |
+
# betas for each asset (including market==1)
|
| 162 |
betas: Dict[str, float] = {}
|
| 163 |
+
for s in R.columns:
|
| 164 |
+
if s == MARKET_TICKER:
|
| 165 |
+
betas[s] = 1.0
|
| 166 |
+
continue
|
| 167 |
ex_s = R[s] - rf_m
|
| 168 |
+
cov_sm = float(np.cov(ex_s.values, ex_m.values, ddof=1)[0, 1])
|
| 169 |
+
betas[s] = float(cov_sm / var_m)
|
| 170 |
+
|
| 171 |
+
# IMPORTANT FIX: include MARKET in covariance so σ is never understated
|
| 172 |
+
asset_cols = list(R.columns)
|
| 173 |
+
if asset_cols:
|
| 174 |
+
cov_m = np.cov(R[asset_cols].values.T, ddof=1)
|
| 175 |
+
covA = pd.DataFrame(cov_m * 12.0, index=asset_cols, columns=asset_cols)
|
| 176 |
+
else:
|
| 177 |
+
covA = pd.DataFrame(np.zeros((0, 0)))
|
| 178 |
|
| 179 |
+
return {"betas": betas, "cov_ann": covA, "erp_ann": erp_ann, "sigma_m_ann": sigma_m_ann}
|
| 180 |
|
| 181 |
def capm_er(beta: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float) -> float:
|
| 182 |
return float(rf_ann + beta * erp_ann)
|
| 183 |
|
|
|
|
| 184 |
def portfolio_stats(weights: Dict[str, float],
|
| 185 |
cov_ann: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 186 |
betas: Dict[str, float],
|
| 187 |
rf_ann: float,
|
| 188 |
erp_ann: float) -> Tuple[float, float, float]:
|
| 189 |
tickers = list(weights.keys())
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 190 |
w = np.array([weights[t] for t in tickers], dtype=float)
|
| 191 |
gross = float(np.sum(np.abs(w)))
|
| 192 |
if gross == 0:
|
|
|
|
| 198 |
sigma_p = math.sqrt(float(max(w_expo.T @ cov @ w_expo, 0.0)))
|
| 199 |
return beta_p, er_p, sigma_p
|
| 200 |
|
| 201 |
+
# ---------------- CML helpers & plot ----------------
|
|
|
|
| 202 |
def efficient_same_sigma(sigma_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
|
| 203 |
if sigma_mkt <= 1e-12:
|
| 204 |
return 0.0, 1.0, rf_ann
|
| 205 |
a = sigma_target / sigma_mkt
|
| 206 |
+
return a, 1 - a, rf_ann + a * erp_ann
|
|
|
|
| 207 |
|
| 208 |
def efficient_same_return(mu_target: float, rf_ann: float, erp_ann: float, sigma_mkt: float):
|
| 209 |
if abs(erp_ann) <= 1e-12:
|
| 210 |
return 0.0, 1.0, rf_ann
|
| 211 |
a = (mu_target - rf_ann) / erp_ann
|
| 212 |
+
return a, 1 - a, abs(a) * sigma_mkt
|
| 213 |
|
| 214 |
+
def plot_cml_percent(rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 215 |
+
pt_sigma, pt_mu,
|
| 216 |
+
same_sigma_sigma, same_sigma_mu,
|
| 217 |
+
same_mu_sigma, same_mu_mu,
|
| 218 |
+
suggestion: Optional[Tuple[float, float]] = None) -> Image.Image:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 219 |
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(6, 4), dpi=120)
|
| 220 |
|
| 221 |
xmax = max(
|
| 222 |
0.3,
|
| 223 |
sigma_mkt * 2.0,
|
| 224 |
pt_sigma * 1.4,
|
| 225 |
+
same_sigma_sigma * 1.4,
|
| 226 |
+
same_mu_sigma * 1.4,
|
| 227 |
+
(suggestion[0] if suggestion else 0.0) * 1.5,
|
| 228 |
)
|
| 229 |
xs = np.linspace(0, xmax, 160)
|
| 230 |
slope = erp_ann / max(sigma_mkt, 1e-12)
|
| 231 |
cml = rf_ann + slope * xs
|
| 232 |
+
plt.plot(xs, cml, label="CML via Market")
|
| 233 |
|
| 234 |
+
# Points
|
| 235 |
plt.scatter([0.0], [rf_ann], label="Risk-free (FRED)")
|
| 236 |
+
plt.scatter([sigma_mkt], [rf_ann + erp_ann], label=f"Market {MARKET_TICKER}")
|
| 237 |
+
plt.scatter([pt_sigma], [pt_mu], label="Your portfolio")
|
| 238 |
+
plt.scatter([same_sigma_sigma], [same_sigma_mu], label="Efficient same sigma")
|
| 239 |
+
plt.scatter([same_mu_sigma], [same_mu_mu], label="Efficient same return")
|
| 240 |
+
if suggestion is not None:
|
| 241 |
+
plt.scatter([suggestion[0]], [suggestion[1]], marker="X", s=70, label="Suggestion")
|
| 242 |
+
|
| 243 |
+
# Guides (percent annotated)
|
| 244 |
+
plt.plot([pt_sigma, same_sigma_sigma], [pt_mu, same_sigma_mu], ls="--", lw=1.0, alpha=0.7, c="gray")
|
| 245 |
+
d_ret = (same_sigma_mu - pt_mu) * 100.0
|
| 246 |
+
plt.annotate(f"Return gain at same σ {d_ret:+.2f}%",
|
| 247 |
+
xy=(same_sigma_sigma, same_sigma_mu),
|
| 248 |
+
xytext=(same_sigma_sigma, same_sigma_mu + 0.03),
|
| 249 |
+
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", lw=1.0), fontsize=9, ha="center")
|
| 250 |
+
|
| 251 |
+
plt.plot([pt_sigma, same_mu_sigma], [pt_mu, same_mu_mu], ls="--", lw=1.0, alpha=0.7, c="gray")
|
| 252 |
+
d_sig = (same_mu_sigma - pt_sigma) * 100.0
|
| 253 |
+
plt.annotate(f"Risk change at same μ {d_sig:+.2f}%",
|
| 254 |
+
xy=(same_mu_sigma, same_mu_mu),
|
| 255 |
+
xytext=(same_mu_sigma + 0.01, same_mu_mu),
|
| 256 |
+
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="->", lw=1.0), fontsize=9, va="center")
|
| 257 |
|
| 258 |
plt.xlabel("σ (annualized)")
|
| 259 |
plt.ylabel("Expected return (annual)")
|
| 260 |
+
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(PercentFormatter(1.0))
|
| 261 |
+
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(PercentFormatter(1.0))
|
| 262 |
plt.legend(loc="best")
|
| 263 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 264 |
|
|
|
|
| 268 |
buf.seek(0)
|
| 269 |
return Image.open(buf)
|
| 270 |
|
| 271 |
+
# ---------------- synthetic dataset ----------------
|
| 272 |
+
def synth_profile(seed: int) -> str:
|
| 273 |
+
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
|
| 274 |
+
risk = rng.choice(["cautious", "balanced", "moderate", "growth", "aggressive"])
|
| 275 |
+
horizon = rng.choice(["3y", "5y", "7y", "10y", "15y"])
|
| 276 |
+
goal = rng.choice(["retirement", "first home", "education", "wealth building", "travel", "emergency"])
|
| 277 |
+
return f"{risk} investor, {horizon} horizon, goal {goal}"
|
| 278 |
+
|
| 279 |
+
def build_synthetic_dataset(universe: List[str],
|
| 280 |
+
covA: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 281 |
+
betas: Dict[str, float],
|
| 282 |
+
rf_ann: float,
|
| 283 |
+
erp_ann: float,
|
| 284 |
+
rows: int = SYNTH_ROWS) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 285 |
+
# Ensure MARKET in universe (we may sample it too)
|
| 286 |
+
symbols = list(sorted(set(universe + [MARKET_TICKER])))[:MAX_TICKERS]
|
| 287 |
+
rng = np.random.default_rng(123)
|
| 288 |
+
data = []
|
| 289 |
+
for i in range(rows):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 290 |
k = rng.integers(low=min(2, len(symbols)), high=min(8, len(symbols)) + 1)
|
| 291 |
picks = list(rng.choice(symbols, size=k, replace=False))
|
| 292 |
+
signs = rng.choice([-1.0, 1.0], size=k, p=[0.25, 0.75])
|
| 293 |
raw = rng.dirichlet(np.ones(k))
|
| 294 |
gross = 1.0 + float(rng.gamma(2.0, 0.5))
|
| 295 |
w = gross * signs * raw
|
| 296 |
+
wmap = {picks[j]: w[j] for j in range(k)}
|
| 297 |
+
|
| 298 |
+
beta_p, er_p, sigma_p = portfolio_stats(wmap, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
| 299 |
+
data.append({
|
| 300 |
"id": i,
|
| 301 |
+
"profile_text": synth_profile(10_000 + i),
|
| 302 |
"tickers": ",".join(picks),
|
| 303 |
+
"weights": ",".join(f"{x:.5f}" for x in w),
|
| 304 |
+
"beta_p": beta_p,
|
| 305 |
"er_p": er_p,
|
| 306 |
+
"sigma_p": sigma_p
|
|
|
|
| 307 |
})
|
| 308 |
+
return pd.DataFrame(data)
|
| 309 |
|
| 310 |
+
def save_synth_csv(df: pd.DataFrame, path: str):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 311 |
os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True)
|
| 312 |
df.to_csv(path, index=False)
|
| 313 |
|
| 314 |
+
def _row_to_exposures(row: pd.Series, universe: List[str]) -> Optional[np.ndarray]:
|
| 315 |
+
try:
|
| 316 |
+
ts = [t.strip() for t in str(row["tickers"]).split(",")]
|
| 317 |
+
ws = [float(x) for x in str(row["weights"]).split(",")]
|
| 318 |
+
wmap = {t: ws[i] for i, t in enumerate(ts) if i < len(ws)}
|
| 319 |
+
x = np.array([wmap.get(t, 0.0) for t in universe], dtype=float)
|
| 320 |
+
gross = float(np.sum(np.abs(x)))
|
| 321 |
+
if gross <= 1e-12:
|
| 322 |
+
return None
|
| 323 |
+
return x / gross
|
| 324 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 325 |
+
return None
|
| 326 |
|
| 327 |
+
def candidate_text(weights_map: Dict[str, float], er: float, sigma: float, beta: float) -> str:
|
| 328 |
+
top = sorted(weights_map.items(), key=lambda kv: -abs(kv[1]))[:6]
|
| 329 |
+
parts = [f"{k} {v:+.2f}" for k, v in top]
|
| 330 |
+
return (
|
| 331 |
+
f"portfolio with expected return {er:.4f}, volatility {sigma:.4f}, beta {beta:.2f}. "
|
| 332 |
+
f"top exposures: {'; '.join(parts)}"
|
| 333 |
+
)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 334 |
|
| 335 |
+
def dataset_suggestions(csv_path: str,
|
| 336 |
+
universe: List[str],
|
| 337 |
+
risk_level: str,
|
| 338 |
+
use_embeddings: bool,
|
| 339 |
+
top_k: int = 3):
|
| 340 |
+
try:
|
| 341 |
+
df = pd.read_csv(csv_path)
|
| 342 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 343 |
+
return []
|
| 344 |
|
| 345 |
+
# Build rows usable for this universe
|
|
|
|
| 346 |
rows = []
|
| 347 |
for _, r in df.iterrows():
|
| 348 |
+
x = _row_to_exposures(r, universe)
|
| 349 |
+
if x is None:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 350 |
continue
|
| 351 |
+
# recover a printable mapping for display
|
| 352 |
+
ts = [t.strip() for t in str(r["tickers"]).split(",")]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 353 |
ws = [float(x) for x in str(r["weights"]).split(",")]
|
| 354 |
+
wmap = {}
|
| 355 |
+
for i in range(min(len(ts), len(ws))):
|
| 356 |
+
wmap[ts[i]] = ws[i]
|
| 357 |
+
gross = sum(abs(v) for v in wmap.values()) or 1.0
|
| 358 |
+
wmap = {k: v / gross for k, v in wmap.items()}
|
| 359 |
+
rows.append((wmap, float(r["er_p"]), float(r["sigma_p"]), float(r["beta_p"])))
|
| 360 |
+
|
|
|
|
| 361 |
if not rows:
|
| 362 |
+
return []
|
| 363 |
+
|
| 364 |
+
# Risk buckets by sigma
|
| 365 |
+
sigmas = np.array([r[2] for r in rows])
|
| 366 |
+
q10, q50, q90 = np.quantile(sigmas, [0.10, 0.50, 0.90])
|
| 367 |
+
|
| 368 |
+
if risk_level == "Low":
|
| 369 |
+
pool = [r for r in rows if r[2] <= q10]
|
| 370 |
+
target_sigma = q10
|
| 371 |
+
query = "low risk conservative stable portfolio minimize volatility"
|
| 372 |
+
elif risk_level == "High":
|
| 373 |
+
pool = [r for r in rows if r[2] >= q90]
|
| 374 |
+
target_sigma = q90
|
| 375 |
+
query = "high risk aggressive growth portfolio accept high volatility maximize returns"
|
| 376 |
+
else:
|
| 377 |
+
# Medium around median band
|
| 378 |
+
band = 0.03 # ±3% absolute sigma band around median
|
| 379 |
+
pool = [r for r in rows if abs(r[2] - q50) <= band]
|
| 380 |
+
if not pool:
|
| 381 |
+
# fallback: closest N to median
|
| 382 |
+
pool = sorted(rows, key=lambda r: abs(r[2] - q50))[: max(10, top_k)]
|
| 383 |
+
target_sigma = q50
|
| 384 |
+
query = "balanced moderate risk diversified portfolio"
|
| 385 |
+
|
| 386 |
+
if not pool:
|
| 387 |
+
# fallback: take closest overall
|
| 388 |
+
pool = sorted(rows, key=lambda r: abs(r[2] - target_sigma))[: max(10, top_k)]
|
| 389 |
+
|
| 390 |
+
# Rank inside pool
|
| 391 |
+
if use_embeddings and get_embed_model():
|
| 392 |
+
try:
|
| 393 |
+
model = get_embed_model()
|
| 394 |
+
texts = [candidate_text(*r) for r in pool]
|
| 395 |
+
embs = model.encode([query] + texts, normalize_embeddings=True)
|
| 396 |
+
qv = embs[0:1]
|
| 397 |
+
tv = embs[1:]
|
| 398 |
+
sims = (tv @ qv.T).ravel()
|
| 399 |
+
ranked = [pool[i] for i in np.argsort(-sims)]
|
| 400 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 401 |
+
ranked = sorted(pool, key=lambda r: abs(r[2] - target_sigma))
|
| 402 |
+
else:
|
| 403 |
+
ranked = sorted(pool, key=lambda r: abs(r[2] - target_sigma))
|
| 404 |
+
|
| 405 |
+
picks = ranked[:top_k]
|
| 406 |
+
out = []
|
| 407 |
+
for i, (wmap, er, sigma, beta) in enumerate(picks, start=1):
|
| 408 |
+
# normalize for display
|
| 409 |
+
gross = sum(abs(v) for v in wmap.values()) or 1.0
|
| 410 |
+
wmap = {k: v / gross for k, v in wmap.items()}
|
| 411 |
+
out.append({"pick": i, "weights": wmap, "er": er, "sigma": sigma, "beta": beta})
|
| 412 |
+
return out
|
| 413 |
+
|
| 414 |
+
# ---------------- summary ----------------
|
| 415 |
def build_summary_md(lookback, horizon, rf, rf_code, erp, sigma_mkt,
|
| 416 |
beta_p, er_p, sigma_p,
|
| 417 |
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 418 |
+
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu,
|
| 419 |
+
risk_level: str,
|
| 420 |
+
suggestion: Optional[Dict] = None) -> str:
|
| 421 |
lines = []
|
| 422 |
lines.append("### Inputs")
|
| 423 |
+
lines.append(f"- Lookback years: **{int(lookback)}**")
|
| 424 |
+
lines.append(f"- Horizon years: **{int(round(horizon))}**")
|
| 425 |
+
lines.append(f"- Risk-free: **{fmt_pct(rf)}** from **{rf_code}**")
|
| 426 |
+
lines.append(f"- Market ERP: **{fmt_pct(erp)}**")
|
| 427 |
+
lines.append(f"- Market σ: **{fmt_pct(sigma_mkt)}**")
|
| 428 |
lines.append("")
|
| 429 |
lines.append("### Your portfolio (CAPM expectations)")
|
| 430 |
+
lines.append(f"- Beta: **{beta_p:.2f}**")
|
| 431 |
+
lines.append(f"- σ: **{fmt_pct(sigma_p)}**")
|
| 432 |
+
lines.append(f"- Expected return: **{fmt_pct(er_p)}**")
|
| 433 |
lines.append("")
|
| 434 |
lines.append("### Efficient alternatives on CML")
|
| 435 |
+
lines.append(f"- Same σ: market **{a_sigma:.2f}**, bills **{b_sigma:.2f}**, μ **{fmt_pct(mu_eff_sigma)}**")
|
| 436 |
+
lines.append(f"- Same μ: market **{a_mu:.2f}**, bills **{b_mu:.2f}**, σ **{fmt_pct(sigma_eff_mu)}**")
|
|
|
|
| 437 |
lines.append("")
|
| 438 |
+
lines.append(f"### Dataset-based suggestions (risk = **{risk_level}**)")
|
| 439 |
+
if suggestion:
|
| 440 |
+
lines.append(f"- Top suggestion μ **{fmt_pct(suggestion['er'])}**, σ **{fmt_pct(suggestion['sigma'])}**, β **{suggestion['beta']:.2f}**")
|
| 441 |
+
else:
|
| 442 |
+
lines.append("- No suggestion available.")
|
| 443 |
return "\n".join(lines)
|
| 444 |
|
| 445 |
+
# ---------------- gradio callbacks ----------------
|
|
|
|
| 446 |
def search_tickers_cb(q: str):
|
| 447 |
hits = yahoo_search(q)
|
| 448 |
if not hits:
|
|
|
|
| 450 |
opts = [f"{h['symbol']} | {h['name']} | {h['exchange']}" for h in hits]
|
| 451 |
return "Select a symbol and click Add", opts
|
| 452 |
|
|
|
|
| 453 |
def add_symbol(selection: str, table: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 454 |
if not selection:
|
| 455 |
return table, "Pick a row from Matches first"
|
|
|
|
| 471 |
msg = f"Reached max of {MAX_TICKERS}"
|
| 472 |
return new_table, msg
|
| 473 |
|
|
|
|
| 474 |
def lock_ticker_column(tb: pd.DataFrame):
|
| 475 |
if tb is None or len(tb) == 0:
|
| 476 |
return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ticker", "amount_usd"])
|
|
|
|
| 481 |
amounts = amounts[:len(tickers)] + [0.0] * max(0, len(tickers) - len(amounts))
|
| 482 |
return pd.DataFrame({"ticker": tickers, "amount_usd": amounts})
|
| 483 |
|
|
|
|
| 484 |
def set_horizon(years: float):
|
| 485 |
y = max(1.0, min(100.0, float(years)))
|
| 486 |
code = fred_series_for_horizon(y)
|
|
|
|
| 489 |
HORIZON_YEARS = y
|
| 490 |
RF_CODE = code
|
| 491 |
RF_ANN = rf
|
| 492 |
+
return f"Risk free series {code}. Latest annual rate {rf:.2%}. Will be used on compute."
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 493 |
|
| 494 |
+
def compute_and_suggest(years_lookback: int,
|
| 495 |
+
table: pd.DataFrame,
|
| 496 |
+
risk_level: str,
|
| 497 |
+
use_embeddings: bool):
|
| 498 |
+
# sanitize table
|
| 499 |
df = table.dropna()
|
| 500 |
df["ticker"] = df["ticker"].astype(str).str.upper().str.strip()
|
| 501 |
df["amount_usd"] = pd.to_numeric(df["amount_usd"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0)
|
| 502 |
|
| 503 |
symbols = [t for t in df["ticker"].tolist() if t]
|
| 504 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 505 |
+
return None, "Add at least one ticker", "Universe empty", pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), None
|
| 506 |
|
| 507 |
symbols = validate_tickers(symbols, years_lookback)
|
| 508 |
if len(symbols) == 0:
|
| 509 |
+
return None, "Could not validate any tickers", "Universe invalid", pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), None
|
| 510 |
|
| 511 |
+
# Universe includes market
|
| 512 |
+
universe = list(sorted(set([s for s in symbols] + [MARKET_TICKER])))[:MAX_TICKERS]
|
| 513 |
|
| 514 |
+
# amounts -> weights
|
| 515 |
+
dfp = df[df["ticker"].isin(symbols)].copy()
|
| 516 |
+
amounts = {r["ticker"]: float(r["amount_usd"]) for _, r in dfp.iterrows()}
|
| 517 |
rf_ann = RF_ANN
|
| 518 |
|
| 519 |
+
# historical moments
|
| 520 |
+
moms = estimate_all_moments_aligned(universe, years_lookback, rf_ann)
|
| 521 |
betas, covA, erp_ann, sigma_mkt = moms["betas"], moms["cov_ann"], moms["erp_ann"], moms["sigma_m_ann"]
|
| 522 |
|
| 523 |
gross = sum(abs(v) for v in amounts.values())
|
| 524 |
if gross == 0:
|
| 525 |
+
return None, "All amounts are zero", "Universe ok", pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS), pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS), None
|
| 526 |
weights = {k: v / gross for k, v in amounts.items()}
|
| 527 |
|
| 528 |
beta_p, er_p, sigma_p = portfolio_stats(weights, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann)
|
|
|
|
| 530 |
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma = efficient_same_sigma(sigma_p, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 531 |
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu = efficient_same_return(er_p, rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt)
|
| 532 |
|
| 533 |
+
# Build synthetic dataset for THIS universe each run
|
| 534 |
+
ds_path = dataset_path_for_universe(universe)
|
| 535 |
+
synth_df = build_synthetic_dataset(universe, covA, betas, rf_ann, erp_ann, rows=SYNTH_ROWS)
|
| 536 |
+
save_synth_csv(synth_df, ds_path)
|
| 537 |
+
|
| 538 |
+
# Suggestions from dataset (top 3)
|
| 539 |
+
picks = dataset_suggestions(ds_path, universe, risk_level, use_embeddings, top_k=3)
|
| 540 |
+
|
| 541 |
+
# For plot, show first suggestion if any
|
| 542 |
+
first_sugg = None
|
| 543 |
+
if picks:
|
| 544 |
+
first_sugg = (float(picks[0]["sigma"]), float(picks[0]["er"]))
|
| 545 |
+
|
| 546 |
+
img = plot_cml_percent(
|
| 547 |
rf_ann, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 548 |
sigma_p, er_p,
|
| 549 |
sigma_p, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 550 |
sigma_eff_mu, er_p,
|
| 551 |
+
suggestion=first_sugg
|
| 552 |
)
|
| 553 |
|
| 554 |
+
# Build summary
|
| 555 |
info = build_summary_md(
|
| 556 |
years_lookback, HORIZON_YEARS, rf_ann, RF_CODE, erp_ann, sigma_mkt,
|
| 557 |
beta_p, er_p, sigma_p,
|
| 558 |
a_sigma, b_sigma, mu_eff_sigma,
|
| 559 |
+
a_mu, b_mu, sigma_eff_mu,
|
| 560 |
+
risk_level=risk_level,
|
| 561 |
+
suggestion=picks[0] if picks else None
|
| 562 |
)
|
| 563 |
|
| 564 |
+
# Positions table
|
| 565 |
rows = []
|
| 566 |
+
for t in symbols:
|
|
|
|
| 567 |
rows.append({
|
| 568 |
"ticker": t,
|
| 569 |
"amount_usd": amounts.get(t, 0.0),
|
| 570 |
"weight_exposure": weights.get(t, 0.0),
|
| 571 |
+
"beta": 1.0 if t == MARKET_TICKER else betas.get(t, np.nan),
|
| 572 |
})
|
| 573 |
pos_table = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=POS_COLS)
|
| 574 |
|
| 575 |
+
# Suggestions table (long format)
|
| 576 |
+
if picks:
|
| 577 |
+
sugg_rows = []
|
| 578 |
+
for p in picks:
|
| 579 |
+
for k, v in sorted(p["weights"].items(), key=lambda kv: -abs(kv[1]))[:12]:
|
| 580 |
+
sugg_rows.append({
|
| 581 |
+
"pick": p["pick"],
|
| 582 |
+
"ticker": k,
|
| 583 |
+
"weight_exposure": v,
|
| 584 |
+
"er_%": p["er"] * 100.0,
|
| 585 |
+
"sigma_%": p["sigma"] * 100.0,
|
| 586 |
+
"beta": p["beta"],
|
| 587 |
+
})
|
| 588 |
+
sugg_table = pd.DataFrame(sugg_rows, columns=SUG_COLS)
|
| 589 |
+
else:
|
| 590 |
+
sugg_table = pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS)
|
| 591 |
|
| 592 |
+
uni_msg = f"Universe set to: {', '.join(universe)}"
|
| 593 |
+
return img, info, uni_msg, pos_table, sugg_table, ds_path
|
| 594 |
|
| 595 |
+
# ---------------- launch UI ----------------
|
| 596 |
ensure_data_dir()
|
| 597 |
+
|
| 598 |
+
# Initialize risk-free from default horizon
|
| 599 |
HORIZON_YEARS = 5.0
|
| 600 |
RF_CODE = fred_series_for_horizon(HORIZON_YEARS)
|
| 601 |
RF_ANN = fetch_fred_yield_annual(RF_CODE)
|
|
|
|
| 604 |
gr.Markdown(
|
| 605 |
"## Efficient Portfolio Advisor\n"
|
| 606 |
"Search symbols, enter dollar amounts, set your horizon. "
|
| 607 |
+
"Prices from **Yahoo Finance**. Risk-free from **FRED**. "
|
| 608 |
+
"Low/Medium/High suggestions are chosen **only** from a 1,000-row dataset generated from your current universe, "
|
| 609 |
+
"optionally refined with **finance embeddings**."
|
| 610 |
)
|
| 611 |
|
| 612 |
with gr.Row():
|
|
|
|
| 614 |
q = gr.Textbox(label="Search symbol")
|
| 615 |
search_note = gr.Markdown()
|
| 616 |
matches = gr.Dropdown(choices=[], label="Matches")
|
| 617 |
+
with gr.Row():
|
| 618 |
+
search_btn = gr.Button("Search")
|
| 619 |
+
add_btn = gr.Button("Add selected to portfolio")
|
| 620 |
|
| 621 |
gr.Markdown("### Portfolio positions — type dollar amounts (negatives allowed for shorts)")
|
| 622 |
table = gr.Dataframe(
|
|
|
|
| 626 |
col_count=(2, "fixed")
|
| 627 |
)
|
| 628 |
|
| 629 |
+
horizon = gr.Number(label="Horizon in years (1–100)", value=int(HORIZON_YEARS), precision=0)
|
| 630 |
+
lookback = gr.Slider(1, 10, value=DEFAULT_LOOKBACK_YEARS, step=1, label="Lookback years for beta & sigma")
|
| 631 |
|
| 632 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Suggestions")
|
| 633 |
+
risk_level = gr.Radio(["Low", "Medium", "High"], value="Medium", label="Risk tolerance")
|
| 634 |
+
use_embeddings = gr.Checkbox(label="Use finance embeddings to refine picks", value=True)
|
| 635 |
|
| 636 |
+
run_btn = gr.Button("Compute (build dataset & suggest)")
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 637 |
|
| 638 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 639 |
plot = gr.Image(label="Capital Market Line (CML)", type="pil")
|
| 640 |
summary = gr.Markdown(label="Summary")
|
| 641 |
+
universe_msg = gr.Textbox(label="Universe status", interactive=False)
|
| 642 |
positions = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 643 |
label="Computed positions",
|
| 644 |
headers=POS_COLS,
|
| 645 |
datatype=["str", "number", "number", "number"],
|
| 646 |
col_count=(len(POS_COLS), "fixed"),
|
| 647 |
+
value=pd.DataFrame(columns=POS_COLS),
|
| 648 |
interactive=False
|
| 649 |
)
|
| 650 |
suggestions = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 651 |
+
label="Dataset-based suggestions (top 3 — weights shown as exposures)",
|
| 652 |
headers=SUG_COLS,
|
| 653 |
+
datatype=["number", "str", "number", "number", "number", "number"],
|
| 654 |
col_count=(len(SUG_COLS), "fixed"),
|
| 655 |
+
value=pd.DataFrame(columns=SUG_COLS),
|
| 656 |
interactive=False
|
| 657 |
)
|
| 658 |
+
dl = gr.File(label="Generated dataset CSV", value=None, visible=True)
|
|
|
|
| 659 |
|
| 660 |
+
# Wire up events
|
| 661 |
def do_search(query):
|
| 662 |
note, options = search_tickers_cb(query)
|
| 663 |
return note, gr.update(choices=options)
|
|
|
|
| 668 |
horizon.change(fn=set_horizon, inputs=horizon, outputs=universe_msg)
|
| 669 |
|
| 670 |
run_btn.click(
|
| 671 |
+
fn=compute_and_suggest,
|
| 672 |
+
inputs=[lookback, table, risk_level, use_embeddings],
|
| 673 |
outputs=[plot, summary, universe_msg, positions, suggestions, dl]
|
| 674 |
)
|
| 675 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 676 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 677 |
demo.launch()
|