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app.py
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import streamlit as st
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import pandas as pd
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import uuid
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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import atexit
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import os
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import base64
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# 頁面配置
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st.set_page_config(
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page_title="Bayesian Hierarchical Model - Pokémon Speed Analysis",
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page_icon="⚡",
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layout="wide",
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initial_sidebar_state="expanded"
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)
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# 自定義 CSS
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st.markdown("""
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<style>
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.streamlit-expanderHeader {
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background-color: #e8f1f8;
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border: 1px solid #b0cfe8;
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border-radius: 5px;
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font-weight: 600;
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color: #1b4f72;
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}
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.streamlit-expanderHeader:hover {
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background-color: #d0e7f8;
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}
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.stMetric {
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background-color: #f8fbff;
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padding: 10px;
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border-radius: 5px;
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border: 1px solid #d0e4f5;
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}
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.stButton > button {
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width: 100%;
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border-radius: 20px;
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font-weight: 600;
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transition: all 0.3s ease;
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}
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.stButton > button:hover {
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transform: translateY(-2px);
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box-shadow: 0 4px 8px rgba(0,0,0,0.2);
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}
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.success-box {
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background-color: #d4edda;
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border: 1px solid #c3e6cb;
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border-radius: 5px;
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padding: 10px;
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margin: 10px 0;
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}
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.warning-box {
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background-color: #fff3cd;
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border: 1px solid #ffeaa7;
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border-radius: 5px;
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padding: 10px;
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margin: 10px 0;
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}
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.info-box {
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background-color: #d1ecf1;
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border: 1px solid #bee5eb;
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border-radius: 5px;
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padding: 10px;
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margin: 10px 0;
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}
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</style>
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""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
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# 導入自定義模組
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from bayesian_core import BayesianHierarchicalAnalyzer
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from bayesian_llm_assistant import BayesianLLMAssistant
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# 清理函數
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def cleanup_old_sessions():
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"""清理超過 1 小時的 session"""
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current_time = datetime.now()
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for session_id in list(BayesianHierarchicalAnalyzer._session_results.keys()):
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result = BayesianHierarchicalAnalyzer._session_results.get(session_id)
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if result:
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result_time = datetime.fromisoformat(result['timestamp'])
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if current_time - result_time > timedelta(hours=1):
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BayesianHierarchicalAnalyzer.clear_session_results(session_id)
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# 註冊清理函數
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atexit.register(cleanup_old_sessions)
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# 初始化 session state
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if 'session_id' not in st.session_state:
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st.session_state.session_id = str(uuid.uuid4())
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if 'analysis_results' not in st.session_state:
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st.session_state.analysis_results = None
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if 'chat_history' not in st.session_state:
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st.session_state.chat_history = []
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if 'analyzer' not in st.session_state:
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st.session_state.analyzer = None
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# 標題
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st.title("⚡ Bayesian Hierarchical Model Analysis")
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st.markdown("### 寶可夢速度對勝率影響的階層貝氏分析")
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st.markdown("---")
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# Sidebar
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with st.sidebar:
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st.header("⚙️ 配置設定")
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# Google Gemini API Key
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api_key = st.text_input(
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"Google Gemini API Key",
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type="password",
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help="輸入您的 Google Gemini API Key 以使用 AI 助手"
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)
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if api_key:
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st.session_state.api_key = api_key
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st.success("✅ API Key 已載入")
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st.markdown("---")
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# 清理按鈕
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if st.button("🧹 清理過期資料"):
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cleanup_old_sessions()
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st.success("✅ 清理完成")
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st.rerun()
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st.markdown("---")
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# 資料來源選擇
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st.subheader("📊 資料來源")
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data_source = st.radio(
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"選擇資料來源:",
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["使用預設資料集", "上傳您的資料"]
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)
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uploaded_file = None
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if data_source == "上傳您的資料":
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uploaded_file = st.file_uploader(
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"上傳 CSV 檔案",
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type=['csv'],
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help="上傳寶可夢速度分析資料"
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)
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with st.expander("📖 資料格式說明"):
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st.markdown("""
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**必要欄位格式:**
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- `Trial_Type`: 寶可夢屬性(如 Water, Fire, Grass)
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- `rc`: 控制組(速度慢)的勝場數
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- `nc`: 控制組的總場數
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- `rt`: 實驗組(速度快)的勝場數
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- `nt`: 實驗組的總場數
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**範例:**
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```
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Trial_Type, rc, nc, rt, nt
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Water, 45, 100, 60, 100
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Fire, 38, 100, 55, 100
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Grass, 42, 100, 58, 100
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```
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""")
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st.markdown("---")
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# MCMC 抽樣參數設定
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st.subheader("🎲 MCMC 抽樣參數")
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with st.expander("⚙️ 進階設定"):
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n_samples = st.slider(
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"抽樣數 (Samples)",
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min_value=500,
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max_value=5000,
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value=2000,
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step=500,
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help="更多樣本 = 更準確,但更慢"
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)
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n_tune = st.slider(
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"調整期樣本 (Tuning)",
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min_value=500,
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max_value=2000,
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value=1000,
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step=100,
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help="調整期用於優化抽樣器"
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)
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n_chains = st.selectbox(
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"鏈數 (Chains)",
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options=[1, 2, 4],
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index=0,
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help="多條鏈可以檢測收斂問題"
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)
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target_accept = st.slider(
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"目標接受率",
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min_value=0.80,
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max_value=0.99,
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value=0.95,
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step=0.01,
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help="更高的接受率 = 更準確,但更慢"
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)
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st.markdown("---")
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# 關於系統
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with st.expander("ℹ️ 關於此系統"):
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st.markdown("""
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**貝氏階層模型分析系統**
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本系統使用貝氏階層模型來分析速度對不同屬性寶可夢勝率的影響。
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**主要功能:**
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- 🔬 貝氏推論與 MCMC 抽樣
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- 📊 階層模型(跨屬性資訊借用)
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- 📈 完整視覺化(4 個圖表)
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- 💬 AI 助手解釋
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- 🎮 對戰策略建議
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**模型優勢:**
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- 量化不確定性
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- 處理小樣本
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- 估計屬性間異質性
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- 穩健的統計推論
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""")
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# 主要內容區 - 雙 Tab
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tab1, tab2 = st.tabs(["📊 貝氏分析", "💬 AI 助手"])
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# Tab 1: 貝氏分析
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with tab1:
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st.header("📊 貝氏階層模型分析")
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# 載入資料
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if data_source == "使用預設資料集":
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# 檢查預設資料是否存在
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default_data_path = "pokemon_speed_meta_results.csv"
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if os.path.exists(default_data_path):
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df = pd.read_csv(default_data_path)
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st.success(f"✅ 已載入預設資料集({len(df)} 個屬性)")
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else:
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st.warning("⚠️ 找不到預設資料集,請上傳您的資料")
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df = None
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else:
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if uploaded_file is not None:
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df = pd.read_csv(uploaded_file)
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st.success(f"✅ 已載入資料({len(df)} 個屬性)")
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else:
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df = None
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st.info("📁 請在左側上傳 CSV 檔案")
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if df is not None:
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# 顯示資料預覽
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with st.expander("👀 資料預覽"):
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st.dataframe(df, use_container_width=True)
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st.markdown("---")
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# 執行分析按鈕
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col1, col2, col3 = st.columns([2, 1, 2])
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with col2:
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analyze_button = st.button("🔬 開始貝氏分析", type="primary", use_container_width=True)
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# 執行分析
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if analyze_button:
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# 初始化分析器
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if st.session_state.analyzer is None:
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st.session_state.analyzer = BayesianHierarchicalAnalyzer(st.session_state.session_id)
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try:
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st.session_state.analyzer.load_data(df)
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# 進度條
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progress_bar = st.progress(0)
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status_text = st.empty()
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def update_progress(message, percent):
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status_text.text(message)
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progress_bar.progress(percent / 100)
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# 執行分析
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with st.spinner("正在執行貝氏分析..."):
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results = st.session_state.analyzer.run_analysis(
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n_samples=n_samples,
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n_tune=n_tune,
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n_chains=n_chains,
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target_accept=target_accept,
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progress_callback=update_progress
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)
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st.session_state.analysis_results = results
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progress_bar.empty()
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status_text.empty()
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st.success("✅ 分析完成!")
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st.balloons()
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except Exception as e:
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st.error(f"❌ 分析失敗: {str(e)}")
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# 顯示結果
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if st.session_state.analysis_results is not None:
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results = st.session_state.analysis_results
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st.markdown("---")
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st.markdown("## 📈 分析結果")
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# 建立 4 個子 Tab
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result_tabs = st.tabs(["📊 概覽", "📉 Trace Plot", "🎯 Posterior", "🌲 Forest Plot"])
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# Tab: 概覽
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with result_tabs[0]:
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st.markdown("### 🎯 關鍵指標")
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# 顯示關鍵指標
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col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3)
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with col1:
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st.metric(
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label="整體效應 (d)",
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value=f"{results['d_mean']:.4f}",
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delta=f"HDI: [{results['d_hdi_lower']:.3f}, {results['d_hdi_upper']:.3f}]"
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)
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with col2:
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st.metric(
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label="屬性間變異 (sigma)",
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value=f"{results['sigma_mean']:.4f}",
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delta=f"SD: {results['sigma_sd']:.4f}"
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)
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with col3:
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st.metric(
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label="速度勝算比 (OR)",
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value=f"{results['or_speed_mean']:.3f}",
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delta=f"HDI: [{results['or_speed_hdi_lower']:.3f}, {results['or_speed_hdi_upper']:.3f}]"
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)
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st.markdown("---")
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# 顯著性判斷
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if results['is_significant']:
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st.markdown("""
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<div class="success-box">
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<h4>✅ 結果顯著</h4>
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<p>速度對勝率有<strong>顯著影響</strong>(95% HDI 不包含 0)</p>
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</div>
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""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
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else:
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st.markdown("""
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<div class="warning-box">
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<h4>⚠️ 結果不顯著</h4>
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<p>速度對勝率<strong>無顯著影響</strong>(95% HDI 包含 0)</p>
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</div>
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""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
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st.markdown("---")
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# 文字摘要
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st.markdown("### 📋 統計摘要")
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st.text_area(
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"Summary Statistics",
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results['summary_text'],
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height=300
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)
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# 下載摘要
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st.download_button(
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label="📥 下載統計摘要 (.txt)",
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data=results['summary_text'],
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file_name=f"bayesian_summary_{results['timestamp'][:10]}.txt",
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mime="text/plain"
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)
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st.markdown("---")
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# 各屬性詳細結果
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| 375 |
-
st.markdown("### 🎮 各屬性詳細結果")
|
| 376 |
-
|
| 377 |
-
delta_df = pd.DataFrame(results['delta_results'])
|
| 378 |
-
delta_df['Significant'] = delta_df['is_significant'].apply(lambda x: '★' if x else '')
|
| 379 |
-
delta_df = delta_df[['trial_type', 'delta_mean', 'delta_sd', 'delta_hdi_lower', 'delta_hdi_upper', 'Significant']]
|
| 380 |
-
delta_df.columns = ['屬性', 'Delta 平均', 'Delta 標準差', 'HDI 下界', 'HDI 上界', '顯著']
|
| 381 |
-
|
| 382 |
-
st.dataframe(
|
| 383 |
-
delta_df.style.format({
|
| 384 |
-
'Delta 平均': '{:.4f}',
|
| 385 |
-
'Delta 標準差': '{:.4f}',
|
| 386 |
-
'HDI 下界': '{:.4f}',
|
| 387 |
-
'HDI 上界': '{:.4f}'
|
| 388 |
-
}),
|
| 389 |
-
use_container_width=True
|
| 390 |
-
)
|
| 391 |
-
|
| 392 |
-
# Tab: Trace Plot
|
| 393 |
-
with result_tabs[1]:
|
| 394 |
-
st.markdown("### 📉 Trace Plot - 收斂診斷")
|
| 395 |
-
|
| 396 |
-
st.markdown("""
|
| 397 |
-
<div class="info-box">
|
| 398 |
-
<h4>📖 如何解讀 Trace Plot:</h4>
|
| 399 |
-
<ul>
|
| 400 |
-
<li><strong>左欄</strong>:MCMC 抽樣軌跡(應該像「毛毛蟲」,平穩無趨勢)</li>
|
| 401 |
-
<li><strong>右欄</strong>:後驗分佈密度圖</li>
|
| 402 |
-
<li><strong>良好收斂</strong>:軌跡圖混合良好,無明顯趨勢或週期</li>
|
| 403 |
-
<li><strong>問題跡象</strong>:軌跡圖有趨勢、卡住、或未混合</li>
|
| 404 |
-
</ul>
|
| 405 |
-
</div>
|
| 406 |
-
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 407 |
-
|
| 408 |
-
if results['trace_plot']:
|
| 409 |
-
st.image(f"data:image/png;base64,{results['trace_plot']}", use_column_width=True)
|
| 410 |
-
else:
|
| 411 |
-
st.warning("⚠️ Trace Plot 未生成")
|
| 412 |
-
|
| 413 |
-
# Tab: Posterior Plot
|
| 414 |
-
with result_tabs[2]:
|
| 415 |
-
st.markdown("### 🎯 Posterior Distributions - 後驗分佈")
|
| 416 |
-
|
| 417 |
-
st.markdown("""
|
| 418 |
-
<div class="info-box">
|
| 419 |
-
<h4>📖 如何解讀 Posterior Plot:</h4>
|
| 420 |
-
<ul>
|
| 421 |
-
<li><strong>d</strong>:整體平均效應(log odds ratio)</li>
|
| 422 |
-
<li><strong>sigma</strong>:屬性間變異(越大表示屬性間差異越大)</li>
|
| 423 |
-
<li><strong>or_speed</strong>:速度勝算比(exp(d))</li>
|
| 424 |
-
<li><strong>95% HDI</strong>:最高密度區間(類似信賴區間)</li>
|
| 425 |
-
<li><strong>顯著性</strong>:HDI 不包含 0(d)或 1(or_speed)即為顯著</li>
|
| 426 |
-
</ul>
|
| 427 |
-
</div>
|
| 428 |
-
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 429 |
-
|
| 430 |
-
if results['posterior_plot']:
|
| 431 |
-
st.image(f"data:image/png;base64,{results['posterior_plot']}", use_column_width=True)
|
| 432 |
-
else:
|
| 433 |
-
st.warning("⚠️ Posterior Plot 未生成")
|
| 434 |
-
|
| 435 |
-
# Tab: Forest Plot
|
| 436 |
-
with result_tabs[3]:
|
| 437 |
-
st.markdown("### 🌲 Forest Plot - 各屬性效應")
|
| 438 |
-
|
| 439 |
-
st.markdown("""
|
| 440 |
-
<div class="info-box">
|
| 441 |
-
<h4>📖 如何解讀 Forest Plot:</h4>
|
| 442 |
-
<ul>
|
| 443 |
-
<li><strong>點</strong>:各屬性的平均效應(delta)</li>
|
| 444 |
-
<li><strong>橫線</strong>:95% 信賴區間</li>
|
| 445 |
-
<li><strong>紅虛線</strong>:無效應參考線(delta = 0)</li>
|
| 446 |
-
<li><strong>星號 ★</strong>:該屬性效應顯著</li>
|
| 447 |
-
<li><strong>右側</strong>:速度快有利於該屬性</li>
|
| 448 |
-
<li><strong>左側</strong>:速度慢有利於該屬性(罕見)</li>
|
| 449 |
-
</ul>
|
| 450 |
-
</div>
|
| 451 |
-
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 452 |
-
|
| 453 |
-
if results['forest_plot']:
|
| 454 |
-
st.image(f"data:image/png;base64,{results['forest_plot']}", use_column_width=True)
|
| 455 |
-
else:
|
| 456 |
-
st.warning("⚠️ Forest Plot 未生成")
|
| 457 |
-
|
| 458 |
-
st.markdown("---")
|
| 459 |
-
|
| 460 |
-
# 顯著屬性總結
|
| 461 |
-
significant_types = [dr for dr in results['delta_results'] if dr['is_significant']]
|
| 462 |
-
|
| 463 |
-
if significant_types:
|
| 464 |
-
st.markdown(f"### ⭐ 顯著屬性總結 ({len(significant_types)}/{results['n_trials']})")
|
| 465 |
-
|
| 466 |
-
for dr in significant_types:
|
| 467 |
-
if dr['delta_mean'] > 0:
|
| 468 |
-
st.success(f"**{dr['trial_type']}**: 速度快有顯著優勢 (Delta = {dr['delta_mean']:.3f})")
|
| 469 |
-
else:
|
| 470 |
-
st.warning(f"**{dr['trial_type']}**: 速度慢有顯著優勢 (Delta = {dr['delta_mean']:.3f})")
|
| 471 |
-
else:
|
| 472 |
-
st.info("沒有屬性顯示顯著的速度效應")
|
| 473 |
-
|
| 474 |
-
# Tab 2: AI 助手
|
| 475 |
-
with tab2:
|
| 476 |
-
st.header("💬 AI 分析助手")
|
| 477 |
-
|
| 478 |
-
if not st.session_state.get('api_key'):
|
| 479 |
-
st.warning("⚠️ 請在左側輸入您的 Google Gemini API Key 以使用 AI 助手")
|
| 480 |
-
elif st.session_state.analysis_results is None:
|
| 481 |
-
st.info("ℹ️ 請先在「貝氏分析」頁面執行分析")
|
| 482 |
-
else:
|
| 483 |
-
# 初始化 LLM 助手
|
| 484 |
-
if 'llm_assistant' not in st.session_state:
|
| 485 |
-
st.session_state.llm_assistant = BayesianLLMAssistant(
|
| 486 |
-
api_key=st.session_state.api_key,
|
| 487 |
-
session_id=st.session_state.session_id
|
| 488 |
-
)
|
| 489 |
-
|
| 490 |
-
# 聊天容器
|
| 491 |
-
chat_container = st.container()
|
| 492 |
-
|
| 493 |
-
with chat_container:
|
| 494 |
-
for message in st.session_state.chat_history:
|
| 495 |
-
with st.chat_message(message["role"]):
|
| 496 |
-
st.markdown(message["content"])
|
| 497 |
-
|
| 498 |
-
# 使用者輸入
|
| 499 |
-
if prompt := st.chat_input("詢問關於分析結果的任何問題..."):
|
| 500 |
-
# 添加使用者訊息
|
| 501 |
-
st.session_state.chat_history.append({
|
| 502 |
-
"role": "user",
|
| 503 |
-
"content": prompt
|
| 504 |
-
})
|
| 505 |
-
|
| 506 |
-
with st.chat_message("user"):
|
| 507 |
-
st.markdown(prompt)
|
| 508 |
-
|
| 509 |
-
# AI 回應
|
| 510 |
-
with st.chat_message("assistant"):
|
| 511 |
-
with st.spinner("思考中..."):
|
| 512 |
-
try:
|
| 513 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.get_response(
|
| 514 |
-
user_message=prompt,
|
| 515 |
-
analysis_results=st.session_state.analysis_results
|
| 516 |
-
)
|
| 517 |
-
st.markdown(response)
|
| 518 |
-
except Exception as e:
|
| 519 |
-
error_msg = f"❌ 錯誤: {str(e)}\n\n請檢查 API key 或重新表達問題。"
|
| 520 |
-
st.error(error_msg)
|
| 521 |
-
response = error_msg
|
| 522 |
-
|
| 523 |
-
# 添加助手回應
|
| 524 |
-
st.session_state.chat_history.append({
|
| 525 |
-
"role": "assistant",
|
| 526 |
-
"content": response
|
| 527 |
-
})
|
| 528 |
-
|
| 529 |
-
st.markdown("---")
|
| 530 |
-
|
| 531 |
-
# 快速問題按鈕
|
| 532 |
-
st.subheader("💡 快速問題")
|
| 533 |
-
|
| 534 |
-
quick_questions = [
|
| 535 |
-
"📊 給我分析總結",
|
| 536 |
-
"🎯 解釋 d 參數",
|
| 537 |
-
"🔍 解釋 sigma",
|
| 538 |
-
"📖 什麼是貝氏統計?",
|
| 539 |
-
"🏗️ 什麼是階層模型?",
|
| 540 |
-
"📉 如何看 Trace Plot?",
|
| 541 |
-
"🎮 比較各屬性",
|
| 542 |
-
"⚔️ 對戰策略建議"
|
| 543 |
-
]
|
| 544 |
-
|
| 545 |
-
cols = st.columns(4)
|
| 546 |
-
for idx, question in enumerate(quick_questions):
|
| 547 |
-
col_idx = idx % 4
|
| 548 |
-
if cols[col_idx].button(question, key=f"quick_{idx}", use_container_width=True):
|
| 549 |
-
# 根據問題選擇對應的方法
|
| 550 |
-
if "總結" in question:
|
| 551 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.generate_summary(
|
| 552 |
-
st.session_state.analysis_results
|
| 553 |
-
)
|
| 554 |
-
elif "d 參數" in question:
|
| 555 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.explain_metric(
|
| 556 |
-
'd',
|
| 557 |
-
st.session_state.analysis_results
|
| 558 |
-
)
|
| 559 |
-
elif "sigma" in question:
|
| 560 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.explain_metric(
|
| 561 |
-
'sigma',
|
| 562 |
-
st.session_state.analysis_results
|
| 563 |
-
)
|
| 564 |
-
elif "貝氏統計" in question:
|
| 565 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.explain_bayesian_concepts()
|
| 566 |
-
elif "階層模型" in question:
|
| 567 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.explain_hierarchical_model()
|
| 568 |
-
elif "Trace Plot" in question:
|
| 569 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.explain_convergence()
|
| 570 |
-
elif "比較" in question:
|
| 571 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.compare_types(
|
| 572 |
-
st.session_state.analysis_results
|
| 573 |
-
)
|
| 574 |
-
elif "策略" in question:
|
| 575 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.battle_strategy_advice(
|
| 576 |
-
st.session_state.analysis_results
|
| 577 |
-
)
|
| 578 |
-
else:
|
| 579 |
-
response = st.session_state.llm_assistant.get_response(
|
| 580 |
-
question,
|
| 581 |
-
st.session_state.analysis_results
|
| 582 |
-
)
|
| 583 |
-
|
| 584 |
-
st.session_state.chat_history.append({
|
| 585 |
-
"role": "user",
|
| 586 |
-
"content": question
|
| 587 |
-
})
|
| 588 |
-
|
| 589 |
-
st.session_state.chat_history.append({
|
| 590 |
-
"role": "assistant",
|
| 591 |
-
"content": response
|
| 592 |
-
})
|
| 593 |
-
|
| 594 |
-
st.rerun()
|
| 595 |
-
|
| 596 |
-
# 重置對話按鈕
|
| 597 |
-
st.markdown("---")
|
| 598 |
-
if st.button("🔄 重置對話"):
|
| 599 |
-
st.session_state.llm_assistant.reset_conversation()
|
| 600 |
-
st.session_state.chat_history = []
|
| 601 |
-
st.success("✅ 對話已重置")
|
| 602 |
-
st.rerun()
|
| 603 |
-
|
| 604 |
-
# DAG 圖(如果有的話,放在側邊欄底部)
|
| 605 |
-
if st.session_state.analysis_results and st.session_state.analysis_results.get('dag_plot'):
|
| 606 |
-
with st.sidebar:
|
| 607 |
-
st.markdown("---")
|
| 608 |
-
with st.expander("🔀 DAG 模型結構圖"):
|
| 609 |
-
st.image(f"data:image/png;base64,{st.session_state.analysis_results['dag_plot']}")
|
| 610 |
-
|
| 611 |
-
# Footer
|
| 612 |
-
st.markdown("---")
|
| 613 |
-
st.markdown(
|
| 614 |
-
f"""
|
| 615 |
-
<div style='text-align: center'>
|
| 616 |
-
<p>⚡ Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Pokémon Speed Analysis | Built with PyMC & Streamlit</p>
|
| 617 |
-
<p>Session ID: {st.session_state.session_id[:8]} | Powered by Google Gemini</p>
|
| 618 |
-
</div>
|
| 619 |
-
""",
|
| 620 |
-
unsafe_allow_html=True
|
| 621 |
-
)
|
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