Update app.py
Browse filesFix 1: Light/Dark Mode Compatibility
Fix 2: Readable Pie Charts - Problem: Percentages and labels were hard to read
app.py
CHANGED
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@@ -28,31 +28,53 @@ from xgboost import XGBClassifier
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from lightgbm import LGBMClassifier
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from imblearn.over_sampling import SMOTE
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plt.rcParams
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# ============================================================================
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# DATA LOADING AND PREPROCESSING
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# ============================================================================
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def load_and_prepare_data():
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"""
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Load the train and test datasets.
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The data is already preprocessed and one-hot encoded.
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"""
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train_df = pd.read_csv('train.csv')
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test_df = pd.read_csv('test.csv')
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# Separate features and target
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X_train = train_df.drop('fraud', axis=1)
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y_train = train_df['fraud']
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X_test = test_df.drop('fraud', axis=1)
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@@ -62,10 +84,7 @@ def load_and_prepare_data():
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def apply_smote(X_train, y_train):
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"""
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Apply SMOTE to handle class imbalance.
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Fraud cases are rare (~3%), so we oversample the minority class.
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"""
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smote = SMOTE(random_state=42)
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X_resampled, y_resampled = smote.fit_resample(X_train, y_train)
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return X_resampled, y_resampled
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@@ -76,10 +95,7 @@ def apply_smote(X_train, y_train):
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# ============================================================================
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def get_models():
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"""
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Define the 4 models we'll compare.
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Each model is tuned for imbalanced fraud detection.
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"""
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models = {
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'XGBoost': XGBClassifier(
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n_estimators=100,
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@@ -119,20 +135,20 @@ def get_models():
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# ============================================================================
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def train_model(model, X_train, y_train):
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"""Train a
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model.fit(X_train, y_train)
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return model
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def evaluate_model(model, X_test, y_test):
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"""Get predictions and probabilities
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y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
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y_proba = model.predict_proba(X_test)[:, 1]
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return y_pred, y_proba
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def get_metrics(y_test, y_pred, y_proba):
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"""Calculate
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metrics = {
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'Accuracy': accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred),
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'Precision': precision_score(y_test, y_pred, zero_division=0),
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@@ -144,7 +160,7 @@ def get_metrics(y_test, y_pred, y_proba):
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def find_optimal_threshold(y_test, y_proba):
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"""Find
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thresholds = np.arange(0.1, 0.9, 0.01)
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f1_scores = []
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@@ -161,124 +177,138 @@ def find_optimal_threshold(y_test, y_proba):
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# ============================================================================
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# VISUALIZATION FUNCTIONS
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# ============================================================================
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def plot_precision_recall_curve(y_test, y_proba, model_name):
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"""Plot Precision-Recall curve
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pr_auc = auc(recall, precision)
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(
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ax.
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# Baseline
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baseline = y_test.mean()
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ax.axhline(y=baseline, color='
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ax.set_xlabel('Recall (Fraud Detection Rate)',
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ax.set_ylabel('Precision (True Fraud Rate)',
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ax.set_title(f'Precision-Recall Curve: {model_name}', fontsize=
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ax.legend(loc='
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ax.set_xlim([0, 1])
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ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
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ax.grid(True, alpha=0.
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plt.tight_layout()
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return fig
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def plot_roc_curve(y_test, y_proba, model_name):
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"""Plot ROC curve
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roc_auc = auc(fpr, tpr)
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(
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ax.
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ax.set_xlabel('False Positive Rate',
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ax.set_ylabel('True Positive Rate (Recall)',
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ax.set_title(f'ROC Curve: {model_name}', fontsize=
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ax.legend(loc='lower right',
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ax.set_xlim([0, 1])
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ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
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ax.grid(True, alpha=0.
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plt.tight_layout()
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return fig
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def plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, model_name):
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"""Plot confusion matrix heatmap
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cm = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred)
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(
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#
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sns.heatmap(cm, annot=True, fmt='d', cmap=cmap, ax=ax,
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xticklabels=['Legitimate', 'Fraud'],
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yticklabels=['Legitimate', 'Fraud'],
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annot_kws={'size':
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ax.set_xlabel('Predicted Label', fontsize=12)
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ax.set_ylabel('True Label', fontsize=12)
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ax.set_title(f'Confusion Matrix: {model_name}', fontsize=
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#
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tn, fp, fn, tp = cm.ravel()
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ax.text(1.
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verticalalignment='center',
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bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='#
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plt.tight_layout()
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return fig
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def plot_feature_importance(model, feature_names, model_name):
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"""Plot top 15 most important features
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 8))
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# Get feature importances
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if hasattr(model, 'feature_importances_'):
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importances = model.feature_importances_
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elif hasattr(model, 'coef_'):
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importances = np.abs(model.coef_[0])
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else:
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ax.text(0.5, 0.5, 'Feature importance not available',
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ha='center', va='center', fontsize=14
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return fig
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# Create
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importance_df = pd.DataFrame({
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'Feature': feature_names,
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'Importance': importances
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}).sort_values('Importance', ascending=True).tail(15)
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# Gradient
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colors = plt.cm.Blues(np.linspace(0.4, 0.
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ax.barh(importance_df['Feature'], importance_df['Importance'], color=colors)
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ax.set_xlabel('Importance Score',
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ax.set_title(f'Top 15 Feature Importances: {model_name}', fontsize=
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ax.grid(True, alpha=0.
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plt.tight_layout()
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return fig
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def plot_threshold_analysis(y_test, y_proba, model_name):
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"""Plot threshold analysis
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thresholds = np.arange(0.05, 0.95, 0.01)
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precisions = []
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recalls = []
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f1_scores = []
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for thresh in thresholds:
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y_pred_thresh = (y_proba >= thresh).astype(int)
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
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ax.plot(thresholds, precisions, '
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ax.plot(thresholds, recalls, '
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ax.plot(thresholds, f1_scores, '
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ax.axvline(x=0.5, color='#888888', linestyle=':', alpha=0.7, label='Default (0.5)')
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ax.set_xlabel('Classification Threshold',
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ax.set_ylabel('Score',
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ax.set_title(f'Threshold Analysis: {model_name}', fontsize=
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ax.legend(loc='
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ax.set_xlim([0, 1])
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ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
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ax.grid(True, alpha=0.
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plt.tight_layout()
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return fig
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def plot_class_distribution(train_df, test_df):
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"""Plot class distribution with
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colors = ['
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explode = (0, 0.
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# Training data
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# Test data
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fig.suptitle('Class Imbalance in Fraud Detection Dataset', fontsize=16, fontweight='bold', y=1.02)
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plt.tight_layout()
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def plot_model_comparison(all_metrics):
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"""Bar chart comparing all
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fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6))
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metrics = ['Accuracy', 'Precision', 'Recall', 'F1 Score', 'ROC AUC']
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x = np.arange(len(metrics))
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width = 0.2
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colors = ['
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for i, model in enumerate(
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values = [all_metrics[model][m] for m in metrics]
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bars = ax.bar(x + i*width, values, width, label=model, color=colors[i]
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# Add value labels
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for bar, v in zip(bars, values):
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ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2, bar.get_height() + 0.02,
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f'{v:.2f}', ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=
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ax.set_ylabel('Score',
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ax.set_title('Model Performance Comparison', fontsize=
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ax.set_xticks(x + width * 1.5)
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ax.set_xticklabels(metrics)
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ax.legend(loc='upper
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ax.set_ylim([0, 1.15])
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ax.grid(True, alpha=0.
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plt.tight_layout()
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return fig
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# ============================================================================
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# LOAD DATA AND TRAIN MODELS
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# ============================================================================
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print("Loading data...")
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print("Applying SMOTE to handle class imbalance...")
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X_train_balanced, y_train_balanced = apply_smote(X_train, y_train)
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print("Training models
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models = get_models()
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trained_models = {}
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all_metrics = {}
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# ============================================================================
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# GRADIO INTERFACE
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# ============================================================================
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def get_data_overview():
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"""
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## Dataset Overview
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### Training Data
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### Features
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- **Number of Features:** {X_train.shape[1]}
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- **Feature Types:** All numeric (pre-processed
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### Class Imbalance Handling
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- Applied **SMOTE** (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique)
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- Training samples after SMOTE: {len(X_train_balanced):,}
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"""
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return summary
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def update_model_display(model_name):
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"""Update metrics
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metrics = all_metrics[model_name]
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y_pred = all_predictions[model_name]
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y_proba = all_probabilities[model_name]
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best_thresh, best_f1, _, _ = find_optimal_threshold(y_test, y_proba)
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metrics_text = f"""
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## {model_name} Performance
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| Metric | Score |
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|--------|-------|
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def get_selected_plot(model_name, plot_type):
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"""Generate selected plot
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y_proba = all_probabilities[model_name]
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y_pred = all_predictions[model_name]
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def get_comparison_results():
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"""Generate comparison
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comparison_df = pd.DataFrame(all_metrics).T.round(4)
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best_models = comparison_df.idxmax()
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summary = "## Model
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summary += "| Metric | Best Model | Score |\n|--------|------------|-------|\n"
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for metric in comparison_df.columns:
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best = best_models[metric]
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score = comparison_df.loc[best, metric]
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summary += f"| {metric} | {best} | {score:.4f} |\n"
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return comparison_df.to_markdown(), summary, plot_model_comparison(all_metrics)
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def update_threshold_plot(model_name):
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"""Update threshold
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return plot_threshold_analysis(y_test, y_proba, model_name)
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#
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# ============================================================================
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# Use a dark-friendly theme
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with gr.Blocks(
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title="Auto Insurance Fraud Detection",
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theme=gr.themes.Base(
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primary_hue="blue",
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secondary_hue="slate",
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neutral_hue="slate",
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).set(
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body_background_fill="#0f0f1a",
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body_background_fill_dark="#0f0f1a",
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block_background_fill="#1a1a2e",
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block_background_fill_dark="#1a1a2e",
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border_color_primary="#3a3a5c",
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border_color_primary_dark="#3a3a5c",
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)
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) as demo:
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gr.Markdown("""
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# π Auto Insurance Claims Fraud Detection
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The models are trained on historical claims data and can predict whether a claim is likely fraudulent.
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|
| 529 |
**Models:** XGBoost | LightGBM | Random Forest | Logistic Regression
|
| 530 |
""")
|
|
@@ -533,7 +600,7 @@ with gr.Blocks(
|
|
| 533 |
# Tab 1: Data Overview
|
| 534 |
with gr.TabItem("π Data Overview"):
|
| 535 |
gr.Markdown(get_data_overview())
|
| 536 |
-
|
| 537 |
|
| 538 |
# Tab 2: Model Evaluation
|
| 539 |
with gr.TabItem("π― Model Evaluation"):
|
|
@@ -562,69 +629,42 @@ with gr.Blocks(
|
|
| 562 |
plot = get_selected_plot(model_name, plot_type)
|
| 563 |
return metrics, report, plot
|
| 564 |
|
| 565 |
-
model_selector.change(
|
| 566 |
-
|
| 567 |
-
|
| 568 |
-
|
| 569 |
-
|
| 570 |
-
|
| 571 |
-
fn=update_all,
|
| 572 |
-
inputs=[model_selector, plot_selector],
|
| 573 |
-
outputs=[metrics_display, report_display, plot_display]
|
| 574 |
-
)
|
| 575 |
-
|
| 576 |
-
demo.load(
|
| 577 |
-
fn=update_all,
|
| 578 |
-
inputs=[model_selector, plot_selector],
|
| 579 |
-
outputs=[metrics_display, report_display, plot_display]
|
| 580 |
-
)
|
| 581 |
|
| 582 |
-
# Tab 3:
|
| 583 |
with gr.TabItem("π Compare Models"):
|
| 584 |
-
gr.Markdown("## All Models Performance Comparison")
|
| 585 |
-
|
| 586 |
comparison_table, comparison_summary, comparison_plot = get_comparison_results()
|
| 587 |
-
|
| 588 |
gr.Markdown(comparison_summary)
|
| 589 |
gr.Markdown(comparison_table)
|
| 590 |
gr.Plot(value=comparison_plot)
|
| 591 |
|
| 592 |
-
# Tab 4: Threshold
|
| 593 |
with gr.TabItem("βοΈ Threshold Optimization"):
|
| 594 |
gr.Markdown("""
|
| 595 |
-
## Finding the Optimal
|
| 596 |
|
| 597 |
-
|
| 598 |
-
We
|
| 599 |
-
The optimal threshold maximizes F1 score.
|
| 600 |
""")
|
| 601 |
|
| 602 |
-
thresh_model = gr.Dropdown(
|
| 603 |
-
|
| 604 |
-
value="XGBoost",
|
| 605 |
-
label="Select Model for Threshold Analysis"
|
| 606 |
-
)
|
| 607 |
-
|
| 608 |
thresh_plot = gr.Plot()
|
| 609 |
|
| 610 |
-
thresh_model.change(
|
| 611 |
-
|
| 612 |
-
inputs=[thresh_model],
|
| 613 |
-
outputs=[thresh_plot]
|
| 614 |
-
)
|
| 615 |
|
| 616 |
-
|
| 617 |
-
|
| 618 |
-
inputs=[thresh_model],
|
| 619 |
-
outputs=[thresh_plot]
|
| 620 |
-
)
|
| 621 |
-
|
| 622 |
-
# Optimal thresholds table
|
| 623 |
-
thresh_summary = "### Optimal Thresholds by Model\n\n| Model | Optimal Threshold | F1 at Optimal |\n|-------|-------------------|---------------|\n"
|
| 624 |
for name in models.keys():
|
| 625 |
-
|
| 626 |
-
thresh_summary += f"| {name} | {
|
| 627 |
-
|
| 628 |
gr.Markdown(thresh_summary)
|
| 629 |
|
| 630 |
# Tab 5: About
|
|
@@ -633,30 +673,19 @@ with gr.Blocks(
|
|
| 633 |
## About This Project
|
| 634 |
|
| 635 |
### Business Context
|
| 636 |
-
Auto insurance fraud costs
|
| 637 |
-
This project builds ML models to flag potentially fraudulent claims.
|
| 638 |
|
| 639 |
-
###
|
| 640 |
-
1. **Data Preparation:** 46 features describing claims and customers
|
| 641 |
-
2. **Class Imbalance:** ~3% fraud rate, handled with SMOTE
|
| 642 |
-
3. **Model Training:** Four algorithms compared
|
| 643 |
-
4. **Evaluation:** Precision-Recall focus due to imbalance
|
| 644 |
-
5. **Threshold Optimization:** Find optimal cutoff for business needs
|
| 645 |
-
|
| 646 |
-
### Models Used
|
| 647 |
- **XGBoost:** Gradient boosting, excellent for tabular data
|
| 648 |
-
- **LightGBM:** Fast, memory
|
| 649 |
-
- **Random Forest:** Robust ensemble
|
| 650 |
-
- **Logistic Regression:** Interpretable
|
| 651 |
|
| 652 |
### Key Metrics
|
| 653 |
-
- **Precision:** Of flagged claims, how many are actually fraud
|
| 654 |
-
- **Recall:** Of actual frauds, how many did we catch
|
| 655 |
-
- **F1 Score:**
|
| 656 |
-
- **ROC AUC:** Overall discrimination ability
|
| 657 |
""")
|
| 658 |
|
| 659 |
-
|
| 660 |
-
# Launch
|
| 661 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 662 |
demo.launch()
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
from lightgbm import LGBMClassifier
|
| 29 |
from imblearn.over_sampling import SMOTE
|
| 30 |
|
| 31 |
+
|
| 32 |
+
# ============================================================================
|
| 33 |
+
# PLOT STYLE CONFIGURATION
|
| 34 |
+
# Use white background for universal readability in both light and dark modes
|
| 35 |
+
# ============================================================================
|
| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
def setup_plot_style():
|
| 38 |
+
"""Configure matplotlib for clean, readable plots."""
|
| 39 |
+
plt.rcParams.update({
|
| 40 |
+
'figure.facecolor': 'white',
|
| 41 |
+
'axes.facecolor': 'white',
|
| 42 |
+
'axes.edgecolor': '#333333',
|
| 43 |
+
'axes.labelcolor': '#333333',
|
| 44 |
+
'text.color': '#333333',
|
| 45 |
+
'xtick.color': '#333333',
|
| 46 |
+
'ytick.color': '#333333',
|
| 47 |
+
'grid.color': '#cccccc',
|
| 48 |
+
'grid.alpha': 0.5,
|
| 49 |
+
'legend.facecolor': 'white',
|
| 50 |
+
'legend.edgecolor': '#cccccc',
|
| 51 |
+
'font.size': 11,
|
| 52 |
+
'axes.titlesize': 14,
|
| 53 |
+
'axes.labelsize': 12,
|
| 54 |
+
})
|
| 55 |
+
|
| 56 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 57 |
+
|
| 58 |
+
# Color palette - vibrant colors that work on white background
|
| 59 |
+
COLORS = {
|
| 60 |
+
'primary': '#2563eb', # Blue
|
| 61 |
+
'success': '#16a34a', # Green
|
| 62 |
+
'danger': '#dc2626', # Red
|
| 63 |
+
'warning': '#f59e0b', # Amber
|
| 64 |
+
'purple': '#9333ea', # Purple
|
| 65 |
+
'cyan': '#0891b2', # Cyan
|
| 66 |
+
}
|
| 67 |
+
|
| 68 |
|
| 69 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 70 |
# DATA LOADING AND PREPROCESSING
|
| 71 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 72 |
|
| 73 |
def load_and_prepare_data():
|
| 74 |
+
"""Load the train and test datasets."""
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 75 |
train_df = pd.read_csv('train.csv')
|
| 76 |
test_df = pd.read_csv('test.csv')
|
| 77 |
|
|
|
|
| 78 |
X_train = train_df.drop('fraud', axis=1)
|
| 79 |
y_train = train_df['fraud']
|
| 80 |
X_test = test_df.drop('fraud', axis=1)
|
|
|
|
| 84 |
|
| 85 |
|
| 86 |
def apply_smote(X_train, y_train):
|
| 87 |
+
"""Apply SMOTE to handle class imbalance."""
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 88 |
smote = SMOTE(random_state=42)
|
| 89 |
X_resampled, y_resampled = smote.fit_resample(X_train, y_train)
|
| 90 |
return X_resampled, y_resampled
|
|
|
|
| 95 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 96 |
|
| 97 |
def get_models():
|
| 98 |
+
"""Define the 4 models for comparison."""
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 99 |
models = {
|
| 100 |
'XGBoost': XGBClassifier(
|
| 101 |
n_estimators=100,
|
|
|
|
| 135 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 136 |
|
| 137 |
def train_model(model, X_train, y_train):
|
| 138 |
+
"""Train a model."""
|
| 139 |
model.fit(X_train, y_train)
|
| 140 |
return model
|
| 141 |
|
| 142 |
|
| 143 |
def evaluate_model(model, X_test, y_test):
|
| 144 |
+
"""Get predictions and probabilities."""
|
| 145 |
y_pred = model.predict(X_test)
|
| 146 |
y_proba = model.predict_proba(X_test)[:, 1]
|
| 147 |
return y_pred, y_proba
|
| 148 |
|
| 149 |
|
| 150 |
def get_metrics(y_test, y_pred, y_proba):
|
| 151 |
+
"""Calculate evaluation metrics."""
|
| 152 |
metrics = {
|
| 153 |
'Accuracy': accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred),
|
| 154 |
'Precision': precision_score(y_test, y_pred, zero_division=0),
|
|
|
|
| 160 |
|
| 161 |
|
| 162 |
def find_optimal_threshold(y_test, y_proba):
|
| 163 |
+
"""Find optimal threshold using F1 score."""
|
| 164 |
thresholds = np.arange(0.1, 0.9, 0.01)
|
| 165 |
f1_scores = []
|
| 166 |
|
|
|
|
| 177 |
|
| 178 |
|
| 179 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 180 |
+
# VISUALIZATION FUNCTIONS
|
| 181 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 182 |
|
| 183 |
def plot_precision_recall_curve(y_test, y_proba, model_name):
|
| 184 |
+
"""Plot Precision-Recall curve."""
|
| 185 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 186 |
+
precision, recall, _ = precision_recall_curve(y_test, y_proba)
|
| 187 |
pr_auc = auc(recall, precision)
|
| 188 |
|
| 189 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, 6))
|
| 190 |
+
|
| 191 |
+
ax.plot(recall, precision, color=COLORS['primary'], linewidth=2.5,
|
| 192 |
+
label=f'{model_name} (AUC = {pr_auc:.3f})')
|
| 193 |
+
ax.fill_between(recall, precision, alpha=0.2, color=COLORS['primary'])
|
| 194 |
|
| 195 |
# Baseline
|
| 196 |
baseline = y_test.mean()
|
| 197 |
+
ax.axhline(y=baseline, color=COLORS['danger'], linestyle='--', linewidth=2,
|
| 198 |
+
label=f'Random Baseline = {baseline:.3f}')
|
| 199 |
|
| 200 |
+
ax.set_xlabel('Recall (Fraud Detection Rate)', fontweight='bold')
|
| 201 |
+
ax.set_ylabel('Precision (True Fraud Rate)', fontweight='bold')
|
| 202 |
+
ax.set_title(f'Precision-Recall Curve: {model_name}', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold', pad=15)
|
| 203 |
+
ax.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=11, framealpha=0.95)
|
| 204 |
ax.set_xlim([0, 1])
|
| 205 |
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
|
| 206 |
+
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.4)
|
| 207 |
|
| 208 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 209 |
return fig
|
| 210 |
|
| 211 |
|
| 212 |
def plot_roc_curve(y_test, y_proba, model_name):
|
| 213 |
+
"""Plot ROC curve."""
|
| 214 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 215 |
+
fpr, tpr, _ = roc_curve(y_test, y_proba)
|
| 216 |
roc_auc = auc(fpr, tpr)
|
| 217 |
|
| 218 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, 6))
|
| 219 |
+
|
| 220 |
+
ax.plot(fpr, tpr, color=COLORS['primary'], linewidth=2.5,
|
| 221 |
+
label=f'{model_name} (AUC = {roc_auc:.3f})')
|
| 222 |
+
ax.fill_between(fpr, tpr, alpha=0.2, color=COLORS['primary'])
|
| 223 |
+
ax.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], color=COLORS['danger'], linestyle='--', linewidth=2,
|
| 224 |
+
label='Random Classifier')
|
| 225 |
|
| 226 |
+
ax.set_xlabel('False Positive Rate', fontweight='bold')
|
| 227 |
+
ax.set_ylabel('True Positive Rate (Recall)', fontweight='bold')
|
| 228 |
+
ax.set_title(f'ROC Curve: {model_name}', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold', pad=15)
|
| 229 |
+
ax.legend(loc='lower right', fontsize=11, framealpha=0.95)
|
| 230 |
ax.set_xlim([0, 1])
|
| 231 |
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
|
| 232 |
+
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.4)
|
| 233 |
|
| 234 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 235 |
return fig
|
| 236 |
|
| 237 |
|
| 238 |
def plot_confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred, model_name):
|
| 239 |
+
"""Plot confusion matrix heatmap."""
|
| 240 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 241 |
cm = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred)
|
| 242 |
|
| 243 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(9, 7))
|
| 244 |
|
| 245 |
+
# Use a colormap with good contrast
|
| 246 |
+
sns.heatmap(cm, annot=True, fmt='d', cmap='Blues', ax=ax,
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 247 |
xticklabels=['Legitimate', 'Fraud'],
|
| 248 |
yticklabels=['Legitimate', 'Fraud'],
|
| 249 |
+
annot_kws={'size': 18, 'fontweight': 'bold'},
|
| 250 |
+
linewidths=2, linecolor='white',
|
| 251 |
+
cbar_kws={'label': 'Count', 'shrink': 0.8})
|
| 252 |
|
| 253 |
+
ax.set_xlabel('Predicted Label', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
|
| 254 |
+
ax.set_ylabel('True Label', fontweight='bold', fontsize=12)
|
| 255 |
+
ax.set_title(f'Confusion Matrix: {model_name}', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold', pad=15)
|
| 256 |
|
| 257 |
+
# Summary box
|
| 258 |
tn, fp, fn, tp = cm.ravel()
|
| 259 |
+
summary = f"True Neg: {tn:,}\nFalse Pos: {fp:,}\nFalse Neg: {fn:,}\nTrue Pos: {tp:,}"
|
| 260 |
+
ax.text(1.25, 0.5, summary, transform=ax.transAxes, fontsize=11,
|
| 261 |
+
verticalalignment='center', fontfamily='monospace',
|
| 262 |
+
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round,pad=0.5', facecolor='#f0f0f0', edgecolor='#cccccc'))
|
| 263 |
|
| 264 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 265 |
return fig
|
| 266 |
|
| 267 |
|
| 268 |
def plot_feature_importance(model, feature_names, model_name):
|
| 269 |
+
"""Plot top 15 most important features."""
|
| 270 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 271 |
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 8))
|
| 272 |
|
| 273 |
+
# Get feature importances
|
| 274 |
if hasattr(model, 'feature_importances_'):
|
| 275 |
importances = model.feature_importances_
|
| 276 |
elif hasattr(model, 'coef_'):
|
| 277 |
importances = np.abs(model.coef_[0])
|
| 278 |
else:
|
| 279 |
ax.text(0.5, 0.5, 'Feature importance not available',
|
| 280 |
+
ha='center', va='center', fontsize=14)
|
| 281 |
+
ax.set_facecolor('white')
|
| 282 |
return fig
|
| 283 |
|
| 284 |
+
# Create and sort dataframe
|
| 285 |
importance_df = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 286 |
'Feature': feature_names,
|
| 287 |
'Importance': importances
|
| 288 |
}).sort_values('Importance', ascending=True).tail(15)
|
| 289 |
|
| 290 |
+
# Gradient blue bars
|
| 291 |
+
colors = plt.cm.Blues(np.linspace(0.4, 0.85, len(importance_df)))
|
| 292 |
+
bars = ax.barh(importance_df['Feature'], importance_df['Importance'], color=colors, edgecolor='#333333', linewidth=0.5)
|
| 293 |
+
|
| 294 |
+
# Add value labels
|
| 295 |
+
for bar, val in zip(bars, importance_df['Importance']):
|
| 296 |
+
ax.text(bar.get_width() + 0.001, bar.get_y() + bar.get_height()/2,
|
| 297 |
+
f'{val:.3f}', va='center', fontsize=9)
|
| 298 |
|
| 299 |
+
ax.set_xlabel('Importance Score', fontweight='bold')
|
| 300 |
+
ax.set_title(f'Top 15 Feature Importances: {model_name}', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold', pad=15)
|
| 301 |
+
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.4, axis='x')
|
| 302 |
|
| 303 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 304 |
return fig
|
| 305 |
|
| 306 |
|
| 307 |
def plot_threshold_analysis(y_test, y_proba, model_name):
|
| 308 |
+
"""Plot threshold analysis."""
|
| 309 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 310 |
thresholds = np.arange(0.05, 0.95, 0.01)
|
| 311 |
+
precisions, recalls, f1_scores = [], [], []
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 312 |
|
| 313 |
for thresh in thresholds:
|
| 314 |
y_pred_thresh = (y_proba >= thresh).astype(int)
|
|
|
|
| 321 |
|
| 322 |
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
|
| 323 |
|
| 324 |
+
ax.plot(thresholds, precisions, color=COLORS['primary'], linewidth=2.5, label='Precision')
|
| 325 |
+
ax.plot(thresholds, recalls, color=COLORS['success'], linewidth=2.5, label='Recall')
|
| 326 |
+
ax.plot(thresholds, f1_scores, color=COLORS['danger'], linewidth=2.5, label='F1 Score')
|
| 327 |
+
|
| 328 |
+
ax.axvline(x=best_threshold, color=COLORS['warning'], linestyle='--', linewidth=2,
|
| 329 |
+
label=f'Optimal = {best_threshold:.2f}')
|
| 330 |
+
ax.axvline(x=0.5, color='#888888', linestyle=':', linewidth=1.5, label='Default (0.5)')
|
| 331 |
|
| 332 |
+
# Mark optimal point
|
| 333 |
+
ax.scatter([best_threshold], [f1_scores[best_idx]], color=COLORS['warning'], s=100, zorder=5)
|
|
|
|
| 334 |
|
| 335 |
+
ax.set_xlabel('Classification Threshold', fontweight='bold')
|
| 336 |
+
ax.set_ylabel('Score', fontweight='bold')
|
| 337 |
+
ax.set_title(f'Threshold Analysis: {model_name}', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold', pad=15)
|
| 338 |
+
ax.legend(loc='center right', fontsize=11, framealpha=0.95)
|
| 339 |
ax.set_xlim([0, 1])
|
| 340 |
ax.set_ylim([0, 1])
|
| 341 |
+
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.4)
|
| 342 |
|
| 343 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 344 |
return fig
|
| 345 |
|
| 346 |
|
| 347 |
def plot_class_distribution(train_df, test_df):
|
| 348 |
+
"""Plot class distribution with clear, readable labels."""
|
| 349 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 350 |
+
fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 6))
|
| 351 |
|
| 352 |
+
colors = [COLORS['success'], COLORS['danger']]
|
| 353 |
+
explode = (0, 0.08)
|
| 354 |
|
| 355 |
# Training data
|
| 356 |
+
train_fraud = train_df['fraud'].sum()
|
| 357 |
+
train_legit = len(train_df) - train_fraud
|
| 358 |
+
train_sizes = [train_legit, train_fraud]
|
| 359 |
+
train_pct = [train_legit/len(train_df)*100, train_fraud/len(train_df)*100]
|
| 360 |
+
|
| 361 |
+
wedges1, texts1, autotexts1 = axes[0].pie(
|
| 362 |
+
train_sizes,
|
| 363 |
+
explode=explode,
|
| 364 |
+
colors=colors,
|
| 365 |
+
autopct='%1.1f%%',
|
| 366 |
+
startangle=90,
|
| 367 |
+
shadow=False,
|
| 368 |
+
wedgeprops={'edgecolor': 'white', 'linewidth': 2}
|
| 369 |
+
)
|
| 370 |
+
|
| 371 |
+
# Style the percentage text
|
| 372 |
+
for autotext in autotexts1:
|
| 373 |
+
autotext.set_color('white')
|
| 374 |
+
autotext.set_fontsize(14)
|
| 375 |
+
autotext.set_fontweight('bold')
|
| 376 |
+
|
| 377 |
+
axes[0].set_title('Training Data Distribution', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
| 378 |
+
|
| 379 |
+
# Add legend with counts
|
| 380 |
+
axes[0].legend(
|
| 381 |
+
wedges1,
|
| 382 |
+
[f'Legitimate: {train_legit:,} ({train_pct[0]:.1f}%)',
|
| 383 |
+
f'Fraud: {train_fraud:,} ({train_pct[1]:.1f}%)'],
|
| 384 |
+
loc='lower center',
|
| 385 |
+
bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, -0.15),
|
| 386 |
+
fontsize=11,
|
| 387 |
+
framealpha=0.95
|
| 388 |
+
)
|
| 389 |
|
| 390 |
# Test data
|
| 391 |
+
test_fraud = test_df['fraud'].sum()
|
| 392 |
+
test_legit = len(test_df) - test_fraud
|
| 393 |
+
test_sizes = [test_legit, test_fraud]
|
| 394 |
+
test_pct = [test_legit/len(test_df)*100, test_fraud/len(test_df)*100]
|
| 395 |
+
|
| 396 |
+
wedges2, texts2, autotexts2 = axes[1].pie(
|
| 397 |
+
test_sizes,
|
| 398 |
+
explode=explode,
|
| 399 |
+
colors=colors,
|
| 400 |
+
autopct='%1.1f%%',
|
| 401 |
+
startangle=90,
|
| 402 |
+
shadow=False,
|
| 403 |
+
wedgeprops={'edgecolor': 'white', 'linewidth': 2}
|
| 404 |
+
)
|
| 405 |
+
|
| 406 |
+
for autotext in autotexts2:
|
| 407 |
+
autotext.set_color('white')
|
| 408 |
+
autotext.set_fontsize(14)
|
| 409 |
+
autotext.set_fontweight('bold')
|
| 410 |
+
|
| 411 |
+
axes[1].set_title('Test Data Distribution', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold', pad=10)
|
| 412 |
+
|
| 413 |
+
axes[1].legend(
|
| 414 |
+
wedges2,
|
| 415 |
+
[f'Legitimate: {test_legit:,} ({test_pct[0]:.1f}%)',
|
| 416 |
+
f'Fraud: {test_fraud:,} ({test_pct[1]:.1f}%)'],
|
| 417 |
+
loc='lower center',
|
| 418 |
+
bbox_to_anchor=(0.5, -0.15),
|
| 419 |
+
fontsize=11,
|
| 420 |
+
framealpha=0.95
|
| 421 |
+
)
|
| 422 |
|
| 423 |
fig.suptitle('Class Imbalance in Fraud Detection Dataset', fontsize=16, fontweight='bold', y=1.02)
|
| 424 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
|
|
|
| 426 |
|
| 427 |
|
| 428 |
def plot_model_comparison(all_metrics):
|
| 429 |
+
"""Bar chart comparing all models."""
|
| 430 |
+
setup_plot_style()
|
| 431 |
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 6))
|
| 432 |
|
| 433 |
+
models_list = list(all_metrics.keys())
|
| 434 |
metrics = ['Accuracy', 'Precision', 'Recall', 'F1 Score', 'ROC AUC']
|
| 435 |
|
| 436 |
x = np.arange(len(metrics))
|
| 437 |
width = 0.2
|
| 438 |
|
| 439 |
+
colors = [COLORS['primary'], COLORS['success'], COLORS['danger'], COLORS['purple']]
|
| 440 |
|
| 441 |
+
for i, model in enumerate(models_list):
|
| 442 |
values = [all_metrics[model][m] for m in metrics]
|
| 443 |
+
bars = ax.bar(x + i*width, values, width, label=model, color=colors[i],
|
| 444 |
+
edgecolor='white', linewidth=0.5)
|
| 445 |
|
| 446 |
+
# Add value labels
|
| 447 |
for bar, v in zip(bars, values):
|
| 448 |
+
ax.text(bar.get_x() + bar.get_width()/2, bar.get_height() + 0.02,
|
| 449 |
+
f'{v:.2f}', ha='center', va='bottom', fontsize=9, fontweight='bold')
|
| 450 |
|
| 451 |
+
ax.set_ylabel('Score', fontweight='bold')
|
| 452 |
+
ax.set_title('Model Performance Comparison', fontsize=15, fontweight='bold', pad=15)
|
| 453 |
ax.set_xticks(x + width * 1.5)
|
| 454 |
+
ax.set_xticklabels(metrics, fontweight='bold')
|
| 455 |
+
ax.legend(loc='upper right', fontsize=10, framealpha=0.95)
|
| 456 |
ax.set_ylim([0, 1.15])
|
| 457 |
+
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.4, axis='y')
|
| 458 |
|
| 459 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 460 |
return fig
|
| 461 |
|
| 462 |
|
| 463 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 464 |
+
# LOAD DATA AND TRAIN MODELS
|
| 465 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 466 |
|
| 467 |
print("Loading data...")
|
|
|
|
| 470 |
print("Applying SMOTE to handle class imbalance...")
|
| 471 |
X_train_balanced, y_train_balanced = apply_smote(X_train, y_train)
|
| 472 |
|
| 473 |
+
print("Training models...")
|
| 474 |
models = get_models()
|
| 475 |
trained_models = {}
|
| 476 |
all_metrics = {}
|
|
|
|
| 489 |
|
| 490 |
|
| 491 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 492 |
+
# GRADIO INTERFACE
|
| 493 |
# ============================================================================
|
| 494 |
|
| 495 |
def get_data_overview():
|
| 496 |
+
"""Dataset summary."""
|
| 497 |
+
return f"""
|
| 498 |
## Dataset Overview
|
| 499 |
|
| 500 |
### Training Data
|
|
|
|
| 509 |
|
| 510 |
### Features
|
| 511 |
- **Number of Features:** {X_train.shape[1]}
|
| 512 |
+
- **Feature Types:** All numeric (pre-processed)
|
| 513 |
|
| 514 |
### Class Imbalance Handling
|
| 515 |
- Applied **SMOTE** (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique)
|
| 516 |
- Training samples after SMOTE: {len(X_train_balanced):,}
|
| 517 |
"""
|
|
|
|
| 518 |
|
| 519 |
|
| 520 |
def update_model_display(model_name):
|
| 521 |
+
"""Update metrics when model is selected."""
|
| 522 |
metrics = all_metrics[model_name]
|
| 523 |
y_pred = all_predictions[model_name]
|
| 524 |
y_proba = all_probabilities[model_name]
|
|
|
|
| 526 |
best_thresh, best_f1, _, _ = find_optimal_threshold(y_test, y_proba)
|
| 527 |
|
| 528 |
metrics_text = f"""
|
| 529 |
+
## {model_name} Performance
|
| 530 |
|
| 531 |
| Metric | Score |
|
| 532 |
|--------|-------|
|
|
|
|
| 549 |
|
| 550 |
|
| 551 |
def get_selected_plot(model_name, plot_type):
|
| 552 |
+
"""Generate selected plot."""
|
| 553 |
y_proba = all_probabilities[model_name]
|
| 554 |
y_pred = all_predictions[model_name]
|
| 555 |
|
|
|
|
| 567 |
|
| 568 |
|
| 569 |
def get_comparison_results():
|
| 570 |
+
"""Generate comparison."""
|
| 571 |
comparison_df = pd.DataFrame(all_metrics).T.round(4)
|
|
|
|
| 572 |
best_models = comparison_df.idxmax()
|
| 573 |
|
| 574 |
+
summary = "## Best Model by Metric\n\n| Metric | Best Model | Score |\n|--------|------------|-------|\n"
|
|
|
|
| 575 |
for metric in comparison_df.columns:
|
| 576 |
best = best_models[metric]
|
| 577 |
score = comparison_df.loc[best, metric]
|
| 578 |
+
summary += f"| {metric} | **{best}** | {score:.4f} |\n"
|
| 579 |
|
| 580 |
return comparison_df.to_markdown(), summary, plot_model_comparison(all_metrics)
|
| 581 |
|
| 582 |
|
| 583 |
def update_threshold_plot(model_name):
|
| 584 |
+
"""Update threshold plot."""
|
| 585 |
+
return plot_threshold_analysis(y_test, all_probabilities[model_name], model_name)
|
|
|
|
| 586 |
|
| 587 |
|
| 588 |
+
# Build UI
|
| 589 |
+
with gr.Blocks(title="Auto Insurance Fraud Detection", theme=gr.themes.Soft()) as demo:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 590 |
|
| 591 |
gr.Markdown("""
|
| 592 |
# π Auto Insurance Claims Fraud Detection
|
| 593 |
|
| 594 |
+
Machine learning models for detecting fraudulent auto insurance claims.
|
|
|
|
| 595 |
|
| 596 |
**Models:** XGBoost | LightGBM | Random Forest | Logistic Regression
|
| 597 |
""")
|
|
|
|
| 600 |
# Tab 1: Data Overview
|
| 601 |
with gr.TabItem("π Data Overview"):
|
| 602 |
gr.Markdown(get_data_overview())
|
| 603 |
+
gr.Plot(value=plot_class_distribution(train_df, test_df))
|
| 604 |
|
| 605 |
# Tab 2: Model Evaluation
|
| 606 |
with gr.TabItem("π― Model Evaluation"):
|
|
|
|
| 629 |
plot = get_selected_plot(model_name, plot_type)
|
| 630 |
return metrics, report, plot
|
| 631 |
|
| 632 |
+
model_selector.change(fn=update_all, inputs=[model_selector, plot_selector],
|
| 633 |
+
outputs=[metrics_display, report_display, plot_display])
|
| 634 |
+
plot_selector.change(fn=update_all, inputs=[model_selector, plot_selector],
|
| 635 |
+
outputs=[metrics_display, report_display, plot_display])
|
| 636 |
+
demo.load(fn=update_all, inputs=[model_selector, plot_selector],
|
| 637 |
+
outputs=[metrics_display, report_display, plot_display])
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 638 |
|
| 639 |
+
# Tab 3: Compare Models
|
| 640 |
with gr.TabItem("π Compare Models"):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 641 |
comparison_table, comparison_summary, comparison_plot = get_comparison_results()
|
| 642 |
+
gr.Markdown("## All Models Performance Comparison")
|
| 643 |
gr.Markdown(comparison_summary)
|
| 644 |
gr.Markdown(comparison_table)
|
| 645 |
gr.Plot(value=comparison_plot)
|
| 646 |
|
| 647 |
+
# Tab 4: Threshold
|
| 648 |
with gr.TabItem("βοΈ Threshold Optimization"):
|
| 649 |
gr.Markdown("""
|
| 650 |
+
## Finding the Optimal Threshold
|
| 651 |
|
| 652 |
+
The default 0.5 threshold often isn't optimal for imbalanced data.
|
| 653 |
+
We balance **Recall** (catching frauds) vs **Precision** (avoiding false alarms).
|
|
|
|
| 654 |
""")
|
| 655 |
|
| 656 |
+
thresh_model = gr.Dropdown(choices=list(models.keys()), value="XGBoost",
|
| 657 |
+
label="Select Model")
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 658 |
thresh_plot = gr.Plot()
|
| 659 |
|
| 660 |
+
thresh_model.change(fn=update_threshold_plot, inputs=[thresh_model], outputs=[thresh_plot])
|
| 661 |
+
demo.load(fn=update_threshold_plot, inputs=[thresh_model], outputs=[thresh_plot])
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 662 |
|
| 663 |
+
# Thresholds table
|
| 664 |
+
thresh_summary = "### Optimal Thresholds\n\n| Model | Threshold | F1 Score |\n|-------|-----------|----------|\n"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 665 |
for name in models.keys():
|
| 666 |
+
opt_t, opt_f1, _, _ = find_optimal_threshold(y_test, all_probabilities[name])
|
| 667 |
+
thresh_summary += f"| {name} | {opt_t:.2f} | {opt_f1:.4f} |\n"
|
|
|
|
| 668 |
gr.Markdown(thresh_summary)
|
| 669 |
|
| 670 |
# Tab 5: About
|
|
|
|
| 673 |
## About This Project
|
| 674 |
|
| 675 |
### Business Context
|
| 676 |
+
Auto insurance fraud costs billions annually. This tool flags potentially fraudulent claims.
|
|
|
|
| 677 |
|
| 678 |
+
### Models
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 679 |
- **XGBoost:** Gradient boosting, excellent for tabular data
|
| 680 |
+
- **LightGBM:** Fast, memory-efficient gradient boosting
|
| 681 |
+
- **Random Forest:** Robust ensemble method
|
| 682 |
+
- **Logistic Regression:** Interpretable baseline
|
| 683 |
|
| 684 |
### Key Metrics
|
| 685 |
+
- **Precision:** Of flagged claims, how many are actually fraud?
|
| 686 |
+
- **Recall:** Of actual frauds, how many did we catch?
|
| 687 |
+
- **F1 Score:** Balance of precision and recall
|
|
|
|
| 688 |
""")
|
| 689 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 690 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 691 |
demo.launch()
|