PM-Predictor / app.py
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from __future__ import annotations
import datetime as dt
from pathlib import Path
import joblib
import pandas as pd
import pydeck as pdk
import streamlit as st
from wqf7009_aqi.aqi import pm25_to_aqi_category_us_epa, pm25_to_aqi_us_epa
from wqf7009_aqi.features import build_features_for_inference
from wqf7009_aqi.geo import nearest_location
from wqf7009_aqi.geocoding import geocode_name
from wqf7009_aqi.openaq_archive import load_location_catalog
from wqf7009_aqi.xai import explain_local_shap, generate_counterfactuals
ARTIFACTS_DIR = Path("artifacts_50loc")
def _load_artifacts(artifacts_dir: Path) -> tuple[object, dict]:
model_path = artifacts_dir / "model.joblib"
meta_path = artifacts_dir / "meta.joblib"
if not model_path.exists() or not meta_path.exists():
raise FileNotFoundError(
"Missing artifacts. Run: python -m wqf7009_aqi train --data data\\dataset.parquet --outdir artifacts"
)
model = joblib.load(model_path)
meta = joblib.load(meta_path)
return model, meta
@st.cache_data(show_spinner=False)
def _load_dataset(path: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
df = pd.read_parquet(path)
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"])
return df
st.set_page_config(page_title="AQI PM2.5 + XAI", layout="wide")
st.title("AQI PM2.5 predictor with explanations")
st.caption("Global OpenAQ data | Daily PM2.5 regression | SHAP + counterfactuals")
with st.sidebar:
st.header("Setup")
artifacts_dir = Path(st.text_input("Artifacts directory", value=str(ARTIFACTS_DIR)))
model, meta = _load_artifacts(artifacts_dir)
data_path = Path(st.text_input("Dataset path", value=str(Path("data/dataset.parquet"))))
if not data_path.exists():
st.error(f"Dataset not found: {data_path}")
st.stop()
data = _load_dataset(str(data_path))
catalog_path = Path(st.text_input("Location catalog", value=str(artifacts_dir / "location_catalog.parquet")))
locations = load_location_catalog(catalog_path)
# Filter catalog to only show stations that have data in the dataset
dataset_location_ids = set(data["location_id"].unique())
locations = locations[locations["location_id"].isin(dataset_location_ids)]
if locations.empty:
st.error("No locations with data found. The catalog and dataset may be out of sync.")
st.stop()
st.divider()
st.header("Query")
mode = st.radio("Location mode", ["Search stations", "Any location (geocode + nearest station)"])
snapped_km = 0.0
geocoded_lat = None
geocoded_lon = None
if mode == "Search stations":
location_query = st.text_input("Search station name", value="")
if location_query.strip():
matches = locations[locations["location"].str.contains(location_query, case=False, na=False)].head(50)
else:
matches = locations.head(50)
if matches.empty:
st.warning(f"No stations found matching '{location_query}'. Try a different search term or leave blank to see all stations.")
st.stop()
choice = st.selectbox(
"Choose a station",
options=matches.index,
format_func=lambda i: f"{matches.loc[i,'location']} (id {int(i)})",
)
else:
place = st.text_input("Enter any place name", value="")
if not place.strip():
st.info("Enter a place name to find the nearest air quality station.")
st.stop()
results = geocode_name(place, count=5)
if not results:
st.warning(f"No geocoding results for '{place}'. Try a different name.")
st.stop()
labels = [
f"{r.get('name')}, {r.get('admin1','')}, {r.get('country','')} ({float(r.get('latitude')):.3f},{float(r.get('longitude')):.3f})"
for r in results
]
pick = st.selectbox("Geocoding results", options=list(range(len(results))), format_func=lambda i: labels[i])
geocoded_lat = float(results[pick]["latitude"])
geocoded_lon = float(results[pick]["longitude"])
# Find nearest station
nearest = nearest_location(lat=geocoded_lat, lon=geocoded_lon, catalog=locations, k=1)
choice = nearest.index[0]
snapped_km = float(nearest.iloc[0]["distance_km"])
st.caption(f"Snapped to nearest OpenAQ station: id `{choice}` (distance `{snapped_km:.1f} km`).")
# Determine valid date range for the selected location
loc_id = int(locations.loc[choice, "location_id"])
loc_subset = data[data["location_id"] == loc_id]
if not loc_subset.empty:
loc_dates = loc_subset["date"].dt.date
valid_min = loc_dates.min()
valid_max = loc_dates.max()
else:
# Fallback to global metadata if specific data not found
valid_min = dt.date.fromisoformat(meta["date_min"])
valid_max = dt.date.fromisoformat(meta["date_max"])
with st.expander("Historical Analysis (Audit)"):
query_date = st.date_input(
"Date (within available history)",
value=valid_max,
min_value=valid_min,
max_value=valid_max,
)
row = locations.loc[choice]
lat = float(row["lat"])
lon = float(row["lon"])
location_name = str(row["location"])
left, right = st.columns([1.2, 1.0], gap="large")
with left:
st.subheader(f"{location_name} (id {int(row['location_id'])})")
extra = f" | snapped {snapped_km:.1f} km" if snapped_km else ""
st.write(f"Lat/Lon: `{lat:.4f}, {lon:.4f}` | Date: `{query_date.isoformat()}`{extra}")
# Build map layers
map_layers = []
# If geocoded, show both the searched location (red) and station (blue)
if geocoded_lat is not None and geocoded_lon is not None:
# Searched location (red marker)
map_layers.append(
pdk.Layer(
"ScatterplotLayer",
data=pd.DataFrame([{"lat": geocoded_lat, "lon": geocoded_lon}]),
get_position="[lon, lat]",
get_radius=15000,
get_fill_color=[255, 50, 50, 200],
pickable=True,
)
)
# Station location (blue marker)
map_layers.append(
pdk.Layer(
"ScatterplotLayer",
data=pd.DataFrame([{"lat": lat, "lon": lon}]),
get_position="[lon, lat]",
get_radius=15000,
get_fill_color=[30, 144, 255, 200],
pickable=True,
)
)
# Center map between both points
center_lat = (geocoded_lat + lat) / 2
center_lon = (geocoded_lon + lon) / 2
# Zoom out to show both points (approximate)
zoom_level = max(0, min(8, 8 - int(snapped_km / 500)))
else:
# Just station location (blue marker)
map_layers.append(
pdk.Layer(
"ScatterplotLayer",
data=pd.DataFrame([{"lat": lat, "lon": lon}]),
get_position="[lon, lat]",
get_radius=20000,
get_fill_color=[30, 144, 255, 180],
)
)
center_lat = lat
center_lon = lon
zoom_level = 8
st.pydeck_chart(
pdk.Deck(
initial_view_state=pdk.ViewState(latitude=center_lat, longitude=center_lon, zoom=zoom_level, pitch=0),
layers=map_layers,
),
key=f"map_{choice}_{geocoded_lat}_{geocoded_lon}", # Force update on location change
)
if geocoded_lat is not None and geocoded_lon is not None:
st.caption("Your searched location vs nearest air quality station")
# Ensure precise date matching by converting input date to pandas Timestamp (midnight)
query_ts = pd.Timestamp(query_date)
match = data[
data["location_id"].eq(int(row["location_id"]))
& (data["date"] == query_ts)
]
if match.empty:
st.error("No feature row for this date/location. Choose a later date with enough history.")
st.stop()
feature_row = match.iloc[0]
X = build_features_for_inference(feature_row=feature_row, feature_schema=meta["feature_schema"])
pred_pm25 = float(model.predict(X)[0])
aqi = pm25_to_aqi_us_epa(pred_pm25)
badge = pm25_to_aqi_category_us_epa(pred_pm25)
with right:
st.subheader("Prediction")
c1, c2, c3 = st.columns(3)
c1.metric("Predicted PM2.5 (ug/m3)", f"{pred_pm25:.1f}")
c2.metric("Derived AQI (US EPA)", f"{aqi:.0f}")
c3.metric("AQI Category", badge)
st.subheader("Recent PM2.5 history (lag features)")
history_cols = meta["feature_schema"]["history_features"]
st.dataframe(feature_row[history_cols].to_frame().T, use_container_width=True, hide_index=True)
st.divider()
tab1, tab2 = st.tabs(["Local explanation (SHAP)", "Counterfactuals (DiCE)"])
with tab1:
st.caption("Local post-hoc explanation for this single prediction.")
st.info("""
**How to read this chart:**
- Each bar shows how much a feature pushed the prediction higher (red/positive) or lower (blue/negative)
- Longer bars = stronger impact on the prediction
- The chart shows which historical PM2.5 measurements (recent days, weekly averages) had the biggest influence on today's predicted value
""")
fig = explain_local_shap(model=model, X_row=X)
st.pyplot(fig, clear_figure=True)
with tab2:
st.caption("Counterfactual scenario analysis: small changes in lag features that would reduce predicted PM2.5.")
desired = st.number_input(
"Desired PM2.5 upper bound (ug/m3)",
min_value=1.0,
value=min(15.0, max(1.0, pred_pm25 - 5.0)),
)
try:
dice_path = artifacts_dir / "dice_data.parquet"
if not dice_path.exists():
raise FileNotFoundError("Missing artifacts/dice_data.parquet (re-run training).")
dice_data = pd.read_parquet(dice_path)
cfs = generate_counterfactuals(
model=model,
meta=meta,
dice_data=dice_data,
query_X=X,
desired_upper=desired,
total_CFs=3,
)
if cfs.empty:
st.warning("No counterfactuals found. Try increasing the desired PM2.5 upper bound.")
else:
history_features = meta["feature_schema"]["history_features"]
# Calculate feasibility metrics for each counterfactual
scenarios = []
for idx, cf_row in cfs.iterrows():
# Calculate total change magnitude
total_change = 0
num_features_changed = 0
max_change_pct = 0
for col in history_features:
if col in feature_row.index and col in cf_row.index:
original = feature_row[col]
cf_val = cf_row[col]
if abs(cf_val - original) > 0.01: # threshold for "changed"
num_features_changed += 1
pct_change = abs((cf_val - original) / original * 100) if original != 0 else 0
max_change_pct = max(max_change_pct, pct_change)
total_change += abs(cf_val - original)
improvement = pred_pm25 - cf_row['pm25']
improvement_pct = (improvement / pred_pm25) * 100 if pred_pm25 != 0 else 0
# Feasibility = lower change is more feasible
feasibility = 100 / (1 + total_change) if total_change > 0 else 100
scenarios.append({
'Scenario': f"Scenario {len(scenarios)+1}",
'Target PM2.5': cf_row['pm25'],
'Improvement': f"{improvement:.1f} µg/m³ ({improvement_pct:.1f}%)",
'Features Changed': num_features_changed,
'Total Change': total_change,
'Feasibility Score': feasibility,
'Max % Change': max_change_pct,
'Improvement_Val': improvement,
'cf_row': cf_row
})
# Sort by feasibility (most feasible first)
scenarios_df = pd.DataFrame(scenarios).sort_values('Feasibility Score', ascending=False)
# Show overview table with recommendation
st.subheader("Scenario Overview")
display_cols = ['Scenario', 'Target PM2.5', 'Improvement', 'Features Changed', 'Feasibility Score']
overview = scenarios_df[display_cols].copy()
overview['Recommendation'] = ['⭐ Most Feasible' if i == 0 else '✓ Alternative'
for i in range(len(overview))]
st.dataframe(
overview.style.background_gradient(subset=['Feasibility Score'], cmap='RdYlGn')
.format({'Target PM2.5': '{:.1f}', 'Feasibility Score': '{:.1f}'}),
use_container_width=True,
hide_index=True
)
# Effort vs Benefit Chart
st.subheader("Scenario Trade-offs: Effort vs Benefit")
import plotly.express as px
plot_df = scenarios_df[['Scenario', 'Total Change', 'Improvement_Val']].copy()
plot_df['Target PM2.5'] = scenarios_df['Target PM2.5'].values
fig = px.scatter(
plot_df,
x='Total Change',
y='Improvement_Val',
text='Scenario',
labels={'Total Change': 'Total Change Required (Effort)', 'Improvement_Val': 'Improvement (µg/m³)'},
hover_data={'Scenario': True, 'Target PM2.5': ':.1f', 'Total Change': ':.2f', 'Improvement_Val': ':.2f'}
)
fig.update_traces(textposition='top center', marker=dict(size=15, color='#1f77b4'))
fig.update_layout(height=400, showlegend=False)
st.plotly_chart(fig, use_container_width=True)
st.caption("💡 Best scenarios are in the top-left: high improvement with low effort")
# Expandable scenarios with natural language explanations
st.divider()
st.subheader("Detailed Scenarios")
def get_feature_interpretation(col_name):
"""Convert feature name to human-readable interpretation."""
if 'lag1' in col_name:
return "yesterday's PM2.5"
elif 'lag7' in col_name:
return "last week's PM2.5"
elif 'roll3' in col_name:
return "the 3-day rolling average PM2.5"
elif 'roll7' in col_name:
return "the 7-day rolling average PM2.5"
else:
return col_name
def generate_scenario_explanation(scenario_data, cf_row_data, feature_row_data, history_feats):
"""Generate natural language explanation for a scenario."""
improvement_val = scenario_data['Improvement_Val']
improvement_pct = (improvement_val / pred_pm25 * 100) if pred_pm25 != 0 else 0
target_pm25 = scenario_data['Target PM2.5']
# Find significant changes
changes = []
for col in history_feats:
if col in feature_row_data.index and col in cf_row_data.index:
original = feature_row_data[col]
cf_val = cf_row_data[col]
delta = cf_val - original
if abs(delta) > 0.01:
pct = (delta / original * 100) if original != 0 else 0
direction = "decrease" if delta < 0 else "increase"
feature_name = get_feature_interpretation(col)
changes.append({
'feature': feature_name,
'delta': abs(delta),
'pct': abs(pct),
'direction': direction,
'original': original,
'new_val': cf_val
})
# Sort by magnitude of change
changes.sort(key=lambda x: x['delta'], reverse=True)
# Build explanation
explanation = f"To improve PM2.5 by **{improvement_val:.1f} µg/m³** ({improvement_pct:.1f}%) "
explanation += f"and achieve a target of **{target_pm25:.1f} µg/m³**, "
if len(changes) == 0:
explanation += "no significant changes are needed."
elif len(changes) == 1:
c = changes[0]
explanation += f"{c['feature']} must {c['direction']} by **{c['delta']:.2f} µg/m³** ({c['pct']:.1f}%), "
explanation += f"from {c['original']:.2f} to {c['new_val']:.2f}."
else:
explanation += "the following changes are needed:\n\n"
for i, c in enumerate(changes, 1):
explanation += f"{i}. **{c['feature'].capitalize()}** must {c['direction']} by **{c['delta']:.2f} µg/m³** ({c['pct']:.1f}%), "
explanation += f"from {c['original']:.2f} to {c['new_val']:.2f}\n"
return explanation, changes
# Create expander for each scenario
for idx, row_data in scenarios_df.iterrows():
cf_row = row_data['cf_row']
is_best = idx == scenarios_df.index[0]
expander_label = f"{row_data['Scenario']}: {row_data['Target PM2.5']:.1f} µg/m³ ({row_data['Improvement']})"
if is_best:
expander_label += " ⭐ Most Feasible"
with st.expander(expander_label, expanded=is_best):
# Generate natural language explanation
explanation, changes = generate_scenario_explanation(
row_data, cf_row, feature_row, history_features
)
st.markdown("### Natural Language Summary")
st.markdown(explanation)
st.divider()
# Metrics row
col1, col2, col3, col4 = st.columns(4)
col1.metric("Current PM2.5", f"{pred_pm25:.1f} µg/m³")
col2.metric("Scenario PM2.5", f"{cf_row['pm25']:.1f} µg/m³",
delta=f"{cf_row['pm25'] - pred_pm25:.1f}", delta_color="inverse")
col3.metric("Improvement", row_data['Improvement'])
col4.metric("Feasibility", f"{row_data['Feasibility Score']:.0f}/100")
# Feature changes table
if changes:
st.write("**Detailed Feature Changes**")
change_data = []
for c in changes:
impact = 'Major' if c['pct'] > 20 else 'Moderate' if c['pct'] > 10 else 'Minor'
change_data.append({
'Feature': c['feature'].capitalize(),
'Current': f"{c['original']:.2f}",
'Scenario': f"{c['new_val']:.2f}",
'Change': f"{c['delta'] if c['direction'] == 'increase' else -c['delta']:+.2f} ({c['pct']:+.1f}%)",
'Impact': impact
})
changes_table_df = pd.DataFrame(change_data)
st.dataframe(changes_table_df, use_container_width=True, hide_index=True)
# Contextual insight
st.info(f"""
**Interpretation**: This scenario shows that {row_data['Features Changed']} historical factors
drive the current prediction. While we cannot change past PM2.5 levels, this reveals which
temporal patterns (recent days vs weekly trends) have the strongest influence on today's air quality.
""")
else:
st.write("No significant feature changes detected.")
st.caption("Note: Lag features are historical context; treat counterfactuals as 'what-if' scenarios for understanding key drivers.")
except Exception as e:
st.warning(f"Counterfactual generation not available: {e}")