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| <li class="nav-item" data-bs-level="1"><a href="#hot-trend-lab-real-data-trend-and-cycle-decomposition" class="nav-link">Hot Trend Lab: Real Data Trend and Cycle Decomposition</a> |
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|
| <h1 id="hot-trend-lab-real-data-trend-and-cycle-decomposition">Hot Trend Lab: Real Data Trend and Cycle Decomposition</h1> |
| <p>Hot topics usually have three time structures: a durable trend, a repeating |
| cadence, and a residual shock that breaks the normal pattern. DeTime is useful |
| here because it makes those structures explicit before the column turns them |
| into a story.</p> |
| <p>Consider a model-release week. arXiv may show a category or query spike before |
| the launch, Hugging Face may show a same-day snapshot jump, GitHub stars may |
| accelerate after demos ship, and Wikimedia or market proxies may react later. |
| Those signals are interesting together, but they answer different questions. |
| The column keeps source coverage, freshness, query context, timestamp, and |
| interpretation boundary next to each chart so a reader can tell what changed and |
| what still needs outside evidence.</p> |
| <div class="pipeline-panel"> |
| <div class="pipeline-flow"> |
| <div class="pipeline-step"> |
| <strong>Public source</strong> |
| <span>arXiv, Hugging Face, GitHub, Wikimedia, DeFiLlama, market data</span> |
| </div> |
| <div class="pipeline-step"> |
| <strong>DeTime</strong> |
| <span><code>trend</code>, <code>season</code>, <code>residual</code>, <code>meta</code></span> |
| </div> |
| <div class="pipeline-step"> |
| <strong>Evidence table</strong> |
| <span>source card, coverage, trend score, residual event rank</span> |
| </div> |
| <div class="pipeline-step"> |
| <strong>Column judgment</strong> |
| <span>what moved, why it matters, what not to infer</span> |
| </div> |
| </div> |
| </div> |
|
|
| <h2 id="what-the-reader-gets">What the reader gets</h2> |
| <p>Each case study starts with a source protocol, then produces a table or figure |
| that supports a specific editorial judgment:</p> |
| <table> |
| <thead> |
| <tr> |
| <th>Component</th> |
| <th>What to read</th> |
| <th>Example question</th> |
| </tr> |
| </thead> |
| <tbody> |
| <tr> |
| <td><code>trend</code></td> |
| <td>durable direction over the selected window</td> |
| <td>Is a topic still building after the launch week?</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><code>season</code></td> |
| <td>repeated cadence</td> |
| <td>Is the pattern mostly deadline or weekday rhythm?</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><code>residual</code></td> |
| <td>event-like deviation from the smooth baseline</td> |
| <td>Which week deserves a closer read?</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><code>meta</code></td> |
| <td>source, query, timestamp, coverage, limits</td> |
| <td>Can this chart support the sentence being written?</td> |
| </tr> |
| </tbody> |
| </table> |
| <p>The result is not a popularity scoreboard. A single source rarely measures |
| quality, adoption, or economic value on its own.</p> |
| <h2 id="column-map">Column map</h2> |
| <div class="info-grid"> |
| <a class="info-card" href="data-sources/"> |
| <h3>Source Protocol</h3> |
| <p>Source cards, reliability matrix, API limits, cache rules, and timestamp discipline.</p> |
| </a> |
| <a class="info-card" href="arxiv-research-pulse/"> |
| <h3>arXiv Research Pulse</h3> |
| <p>Category and query counts with deadline-aware interpretation.</p> |
| </a> |
| <a class="info-card" href="open-model-and-developer-attention/"> |
| <h3>Open Models and Developer Attention</h3> |
| <p>Launch-to-retention reading across Hugging Face snapshots and GitHub star velocity.</p> |
| </a> |
| <a class="info-card" href="wiki-market-crypto-attention/"> |
| <h3>Public Attention, Markets, and Crypto</h3> |
| <p>A hub for public attention and market-proxy series, with market-structure boundaries.</p> |
| </a> |
| <a class="info-card" href="release-calendar/"> |
| <h3>Publishing Protocol</h3> |
| <p>Monday scan, midweek verification, Friday publish, and residual-trigger rules.</p> |
| </a> |
| </div> |
|
|
| <h2 id="case-study-notebooks">Case-study notebooks</h2> |
| <p>The pages below render notebook code, tables, figures, and captured outputs directly |
| from <code>examples/notebooks/hot_trends/</code>. Read each notebook for three things: why the |
| source is interesting, how to read the tables or axes, and what decision the |
| output can support.</p> |
| <table> |
| <thead> |
| <tr> |
| <th>Rendered page</th> |
| <th>Primary judgment</th> |
| <th>Main boundary</th> |
| </tr> |
| </thead> |
| <tbody> |
| <tr> |
| <td><a href="notebooks/01_arxiv_category_pulse/">01 arXiv category pulse</a></td> |
| <td>which fields are structurally growing or spiking</td> |
| <td>paper count is not paper quality</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><a href="notebooks/02_arxiv_agent_research_pulse/">02 arXiv agent research pulse</a></td> |
| <td>which agent topics deserve a weekly read</td> |
| <td>query wording changes the sample</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><a href="notebooks/03_huggingface_open_model_pulse/">03 Hugging Face open-model pulse</a></td> |
| <td>current public model attention and later retention</td> |
| <td>one snapshot cannot show momentum</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><a href="notebooks/04_github_ai_agent_star_velocity/">04 GitHub AI-agent star velocity</a></td> |
| <td>developer attention during the covered window</td> |
| <td>stars are not production adoption</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><a href="notebooks/05_wikipedia_attention_hype_decay/">05 Wikipedia attention hype decay</a></td> |
| <td>public-attention decay after a burst</td> |
| <td>pageviews are attention, not importance</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><a href="notebooks/06_crypto_stablecoin_liquidity_pulse/">06 crypto stablecoin liquidity pulse</a></td> |
| <td>price residuals next to stablecoin context</td> |
| <td>not a trading signal</td> |
| </tr> |
| <tr> |
| <td><a href="notebooks/07_ai_infrastructure_market_pulse/">07 AI infrastructure market pulse</a></td> |
| <td>market-price proxy movement around AI infrastructure</td> |
| <td>valuation needs financial statements</td> |
| </tr> |
| </tbody> |
| </table> |
| <p>The <a href="notebooks/">rendered notebook index</a> and the |
| <a href="notebooks/00_hot_trend_lab_overview/">00 overview notebook</a> |
| are appendix material for readers who want the full transcript list.</p> |
| <h2 id="install-optional-dependencies">Install optional dependencies</h2> |
| <pre><code class="language-bash">python -m pip install -e .[dev,docs,notebook] |
| python -m pip install -r examples/hot_trends/requirements.txt |
| </code></pre> |
| <p>Then open:</p> |
| <pre><code class="language-bash">jupyter lab examples/notebooks/hot_trends |
| </code></pre> |
| <h2 id="research-scope">Research scope</h2> |
| <p>Use this column to analyze public attention, research activity, open-source |
| activity, liquidity, and market-proxy time series. Adoption, quality, |
| valuation, and investment decisions need separate evidence.</p></div> |
| </div> |
| </div> |
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