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README.md
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| 8 |
---
|
| 9 |
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| 10 |
-
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| 1 |
+
# Chronos 2 Time Series Forecasting Application
|
| 2 |
+
|
| 3 |
+
A production-ready web application for testing Amazon's **Chronos 2** time series forecasting model using the latest `Chronos2Pipeline` API. Built with Dash for enterprise scalability and designed for both local development and cloud deployment.
|
| 4 |
+
|
| 5 |
+
## Features
|
| 6 |
+
|
| 7 |
+
- **Latest Chronos 2 API**: Uses `Chronos2Pipeline.predict_df()` with DataFrame-based interface
|
| 8 |
+
- **Interactive Forecasting**: Generate forecasts up to 365 days with adjustable confidence intervals
|
| 9 |
+
- **Dual Model Support**: Switch between Fast (Chronos-Bolt) and Accurate (Chronos-2) variants
|
| 10 |
+
- **Multivariate Ready**: Built on Chronos 2 architecture supporting multivariate forecasting
|
| 11 |
+
- **Flexible Data Input**: Upload CSV/Excel files or use sample datasets
|
| 12 |
+
- **Rich Visualizations**: Interactive Plotly charts with confidence bands and zoom capabilities
|
| 13 |
+
- **Data Quality Analysis**: Automatic preprocessing with quality reports
|
| 14 |
+
- **GPU Acceleration**: Automatic CUDA support with CPU fallback
|
| 15 |
+
- **Security Hardened**: Non-root Docker containers, server-side validation, filename sanitization
|
| 16 |
+
- **Production Ready**: Designed for deployment on local machines or Databricks Apps
|
| 17 |
+
|
| 18 |
+
## Architecture
|
| 19 |
+
|
| 20 |
+
Built following best practices for scalability and maintainability:
|
| 21 |
+
|
| 22 |
+
- **Dash Framework**: Handles thousands of concurrent users
|
| 23 |
+
- **Plotly Visualizations**: Smooth rendering of 100K+ data points
|
| 24 |
+
- **Model Caching**: Chronos 2 loaded once at startup for fast inference
|
| 25 |
+
- **Client-Side State**: Efficient state management without server sessions
|
| 26 |
+
- **Modular Design**: Clean separation of components, services, and utilities
|
| 27 |
+
|
| 28 |
+
## Installation
|
| 29 |
+
|
| 30 |
+
### Prerequisites
|
| 31 |
+
|
| 32 |
+
- Python 3.10+
|
| 33 |
+
- CUDA-capable GPU (optional, for faster inference)
|
| 34 |
+
- 8GB+ RAM (4-8GB for model + overhead)
|
| 35 |
+
|
| 36 |
+
### Local Setup
|
| 37 |
+
|
| 38 |
+
1. **Clone the repository**
|
| 39 |
+
```bash
|
| 40 |
+
git clone <repository-url>
|
| 41 |
+
cd chronos2-forecasting-app
|
| 42 |
+
```
|
| 43 |
+
|
| 44 |
+
2. **Create a virtual environment**
|
| 45 |
+
```bash
|
| 46 |
+
python -m venv venv
|
| 47 |
+
|
| 48 |
+
# On Windows
|
| 49 |
+
venv\Scripts\activate
|
| 50 |
+
|
| 51 |
+
# On Linux/Mac
|
| 52 |
+
source venv/bin/activate
|
| 53 |
+
```
|
| 54 |
+
|
| 55 |
+
3. **Install dependencies**
|
| 56 |
+
```bash
|
| 57 |
+
pip install -r requirements.txt
|
| 58 |
+
```
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
4. **Run the application**
|
| 61 |
+
```bash
|
| 62 |
+
python app.py
|
| 63 |
+
```
|
| 64 |
+
|
| 65 |
+
5. **Access the app**
|
| 66 |
+
Open your browser to `http://127.0.0.1:8050`
|
| 67 |
+
|
| 68 |
+
## Usage Guide
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
### Quick Start
|
| 71 |
+
|
| 72 |
+
1. **Load Sample Data**
|
| 73 |
+
- Click one of the sample dataset buttons (Electricity, Retail, Manufacturing)
|
| 74 |
+
- Or upload your own CSV/Excel file
|
| 75 |
+
|
| 76 |
+
2. **Configure Data**
|
| 77 |
+
- Select the date column
|
| 78 |
+
- Select the target variable to forecast
|
| 79 |
+
- (Optional) Select an ID column for multivariate series
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
3. **Set Forecast Parameters**
|
| 82 |
+
- Adjust the forecast horizon (1-365 days)
|
| 83 |
+
- Select confidence levels (80%, 90%, 95%, 99%)
|
| 84 |
+
- Choose model variant (Fast or Accurate)
|
| 85 |
+
|
| 86 |
+
4. **Generate Forecast**
|
| 87 |
+
- Click "Generate Forecast" button
|
| 88 |
+
- Wait for model inference (typically 1-5 seconds)
|
| 89 |
+
- View interactive chart with confidence intervals
|
| 90 |
+
|
| 91 |
+
### Data Requirements
|
| 92 |
+
|
| 93 |
+
Your data should have:
|
| 94 |
+
- **Date column**: Any standard date format
|
| 95 |
+
- **Target column**: Numeric values to forecast
|
| 96 |
+
- **Minimum rows**: At least 2x the forecast horizon
|
| 97 |
+
- **File size**: Up to 100MB
|
| 98 |
+
- **Formats**: CSV, XLSX, XLS
|
| 99 |
+
|
| 100 |
+
### Tips for Best Results
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
- Use at least 2x the forecast horizon in historical data
|
| 103 |
+
- Clean your data before upload (though the app handles basic preprocessing)
|
| 104 |
+
- Start with the Fast model variant for quick testing
|
| 105 |
+
- Use the Accurate variant for final forecasts
|
| 106 |
+
- Larger confidence intervals provide more conservative forecasts
|
| 107 |
+
|
| 108 |
+
## Project Structure
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
```
|
| 111 |
+
chronos2-forecasting-app/
|
| 112 |
+
├── app.py # Main Dash application
|
| 113 |
+
├── components/ # UI components
|
| 114 |
+
│ ├── upload.py # File upload component
|
| 115 |
+
│ ├── chart.py # Chart generation
|
| 116 |
+
│ └── controls.py # Parameter controls
|
| 117 |
+
├── services/ # Business logic
|
| 118 |
+
│ ├── model_service.py # Chronos model wrapper
|
| 119 |
+
│ ├── data_processor.py # Data preprocessing
|
| 120 |
+
│ └── cache_manager.py # Caching logic
|
| 121 |
+
├── utils/ # Utilities
|
| 122 |
+
│ ├── validators.py # Input validation
|
| 123 |
+
│ └── metrics.py # Forecast metrics
|
| 124 |
+
├── config/ # Configuration
|
| 125 |
+
│ ├── settings.py # Environment settings
|
| 126 |
+
│ └── constants.py # App constants
|
| 127 |
+
├── datasets/ # Sample datasets
|
| 128 |
+
├── static/ # Static assets
|
| 129 |
+
│ └── custom.css # Custom styles
|
| 130 |
+
├── requirements.txt # Python dependencies
|
| 131 |
+
├── Dockerfile # Container definition
|
| 132 |
+
└── README.md # This file
|
| 133 |
+
```
|
| 134 |
+
|
| 135 |
+
## Configuration
|
| 136 |
+
|
| 137 |
+
### Environment Variables
|
| 138 |
+
|
| 139 |
+
- `ENVIRONMENT`: Set to `local` or `production`
|
| 140 |
+
- `DEVICE`: Set to `auto`, `cuda`, or `cpu`
|
| 141 |
+
- `LOG_LEVEL`: Set to `DEBUG`, `INFO`, `WARNING`, or `ERROR`
|
| 142 |
+
- `DATABRICKS_APP_PORT`: Port for Databricks deployment (default: 8080)
|
| 143 |
+
|
| 144 |
+
### Local vs Databricks Configuration
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
The app automatically detects the environment and adjusts settings:
|
| 147 |
+
|
| 148 |
+
**Local Development:**
|
| 149 |
+
- Host: 127.0.0.1
|
| 150 |
+
- Port: 8050
|
| 151 |
+
- Debug: Enabled
|
| 152 |
+
- Storage: Local directories
|
| 153 |
+
|
| 154 |
+
**Databricks Deployment:**
|
| 155 |
+
- Host: 0.0.0.0
|
| 156 |
+
- Port: 8080 (or DATABRICKS_APP_PORT)
|
| 157 |
+
- Debug: Disabled
|
| 158 |
+
- Storage: /tmp and /dbfs
|
| 159 |
+
|
| 160 |
+
## Deployment
|
| 161 |
+
|
| 162 |
+
### Hugging Face Spaces (Recommended for Free Hosting)
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
The easiest way to deploy this app for free:
|
| 165 |
+
|
| 166 |
+
1. **Create a Hugging Face account** at https://huggingface.co
|
| 167 |
+
|
| 168 |
+
2. **Create a new Space**
|
| 169 |
+
- Go to https://huggingface.co/spaces
|
| 170 |
+
- Click "Create new Space"
|
| 171 |
+
- Select "Dash" as the SDK
|
| 172 |
+
- Choose a name for your Space
|
| 173 |
+
|
| 174 |
+
3. **Upload your code**
|
| 175 |
+
- Option A: Connect your GitHub repository (recommended)
|
| 176 |
+
- Option B: Upload files directly through the web interface
|
| 177 |
+
|
| 178 |
+
4. **Configure the Space**
|
| 179 |
+
- The app will automatically use `app.py` as the entry point
|
| 180 |
+
- HuggingFace Spaces provides 16GB RAM (sufficient for Chronos-2)
|
| 181 |
+
- Optional: Request GPU upgrade for faster inference
|
| 182 |
+
|
| 183 |
+
5. **Access your deployed app**
|
| 184 |
+
- Your app will be live at: `https://huggingface.co/spaces/YOUR_USERNAME/YOUR_SPACE_NAME`
|
| 185 |
+
|
| 186 |
+
**Note**: First startup may take 2-3 minutes as the Chronos-2 model downloads (~500MB).
|
| 187 |
+
|
| 188 |
+
### Docker Deployment
|
| 189 |
+
|
| 190 |
+
1. **Build the image**
|
| 191 |
+
```bash
|
| 192 |
+
docker build -t chronos2-forecasting .
|
| 193 |
+
```
|
| 194 |
+
|
| 195 |
+
2. **Run the container**
|
| 196 |
+
```bash
|
| 197 |
+
docker run -p 8080:8080 chronos2-forecasting
|
| 198 |
+
```
|
| 199 |
+
|
| 200 |
+
3. **With GPU support**
|
| 201 |
+
```bash
|
| 202 |
+
docker run --gpus all -p 8080:8080 chronos2-forecasting
|
| 203 |
+
```
|
| 204 |
+
|
| 205 |
+
### Databricks Apps Deployment
|
| 206 |
+
|
| 207 |
+
1. **Upload code to DBFS**
|
| 208 |
+
```bash
|
| 209 |
+
databricks fs cp -r . dbfs:/apps/chronos2-forecasting/
|
| 210 |
+
```
|
| 211 |
+
|
| 212 |
+
2. **Create Databricks App**
|
| 213 |
+
- Use the Databricks Apps UI
|
| 214 |
+
- Point to the uploaded directory
|
| 215 |
+
- Set environment variable: `ENVIRONMENT=production`
|
| 216 |
+
|
| 217 |
+
3. **Configure resources**
|
| 218 |
+
- Minimum: 8GB RAM
|
| 219 |
+
- Recommended: GPU instance for faster inference
|
| 220 |
+
|
| 221 |
+
### Production Considerations
|
| 222 |
+
|
| 223 |
+
- **Memory**: Allocate 6-8GB for the model + overhead
|
| 224 |
+
- **Scaling**: Use multiple workers with Gunicorn
|
| 225 |
+
- **Monitoring**: Check `/health` endpoint for status
|
| 226 |
+
- **Logging**: Logs to stdout for easy collection
|
| 227 |
+
- **Timeouts**: Set to 300s+ for large forecasts
|
| 228 |
+
|
| 229 |
+
## API Reference
|
| 230 |
+
|
| 231 |
+
### Health Check Endpoint
|
| 232 |
+
|
| 233 |
+
```
|
| 234 |
+
GET /health
|
| 235 |
+
```
|
| 236 |
+
|
| 237 |
+
Returns:
|
| 238 |
+
```json
|
| 239 |
+
{
|
| 240 |
+
"status": "healthy",
|
| 241 |
+
"model_loaded": true,
|
| 242 |
+
"model_variant": "fast",
|
| 243 |
+
"device": "cuda"
|
| 244 |
+
}
|
| 245 |
+
```
|
| 246 |
+
|
| 247 |
+
## Troubleshooting
|
| 248 |
+
|
| 249 |
+
### Model Loading Issues
|
| 250 |
+
|
| 251 |
+
**Problem**: Model fails to load
|
| 252 |
+
- Check available memory (need 4-8GB)
|
| 253 |
+
- Try CPU mode: Set `DEVICE=cpu`
|
| 254 |
+
- Check internet connection (first run downloads model)
|
| 255 |
+
|
| 256 |
+
### GPU Not Detected
|
| 257 |
+
|
| 258 |
+
**Problem**: CUDA device not found
|
| 259 |
+
- Verify CUDA installation: `python -c "import torch; print(torch.cuda.is_available())"`
|
| 260 |
+
- Install correct PyTorch version for your CUDA
|
| 261 |
+
- App will automatically fall back to CPU
|
| 262 |
+
|
| 263 |
+
### Upload Failures
|
| 264 |
+
|
| 265 |
+
**Problem**: File upload fails
|
| 266 |
+
- Check file size (<100MB)
|
| 267 |
+
- Verify file format (CSV, XLSX, XLS)
|
| 268 |
+
- Ensure file is not corrupted
|
| 269 |
+
|
| 270 |
+
### Slow Performance
|
| 271 |
+
|
| 272 |
+
**Problem**: Forecasts take too long
|
| 273 |
+
- Use Fast model variant instead of Accurate
|
| 274 |
+
- Reduce forecast horizon
|
| 275 |
+
- Enable GPU acceleration
|
| 276 |
+
- Limit data points (app decimates to 10K for display)
|
| 277 |
+
|
| 278 |
+
### Memory Errors
|
| 279 |
+
|
| 280 |
+
**Problem**: Out of memory during inference
|
| 281 |
+
- Switch to Fast model variant (smaller)
|
| 282 |
+
- Use CPU instead of GPU
|
| 283 |
+
- Reduce batch size in model_service.py
|
| 284 |
+
- Close other applications
|
| 285 |
+
|
| 286 |
+
## Performance Tuning
|
| 287 |
+
|
| 288 |
+
### For Development
|
| 289 |
+
- Enable debug mode for detailed logging
|
| 290 |
+
- Use Fast model variant
|
| 291 |
+
- Work with smaller datasets initially
|
| 292 |
+
|
| 293 |
+
### For Production
|
| 294 |
+
- Disable debug mode
|
| 295 |
+
- Use GPU for inference
|
| 296 |
+
- Enable caching (already configured)
|
| 297 |
+
- Use Gunicorn with 4 workers
|
| 298 |
+
- Set up monitoring and alerting
|
| 299 |
+
|
| 300 |
+
## Contributing
|
| 301 |
+
|
| 302 |
+
Contributions are welcome! Please:
|
| 303 |
+
|
| 304 |
+
1. Fork the repository
|
| 305 |
+
2. Create a feature branch
|
| 306 |
+
3. Make your changes
|
| 307 |
+
4. Add tests if applicable
|
| 308 |
+
5. Submit a pull request
|
| 309 |
+
|
| 310 |
+
## License
|
| 311 |
+
|
| 312 |
+
This project is provided as-is for educational and research purposes.
|
| 313 |
+
|
| 314 |
+
## Acknowledgments
|
| 315 |
+
|
| 316 |
+
- **Chronos Model**: Amazon Science
|
| 317 |
+
- **Dash Framework**: Plotly
|
| 318 |
+
- **Sample Data**: Generated for demonstration purposes
|
| 319 |
+
|
| 320 |
+
## Support
|
| 321 |
+
|
| 322 |
+
For issues, questions, or suggestions:
|
| 323 |
+
- Open an issue in the repository
|
| 324 |
+
- Check existing documentation
|
| 325 |
+
- Review troubleshooting guide above
|
| 326 |
+
|
| 327 |
+
## Changelog
|
| 328 |
+
|
| 329 |
+
### Version 1.0.1 (Latest - Chronos 2 Full Implementation)
|
| 330 |
+
- **BREAKING**: Migrated to Chronos 2 API with `Chronos2Pipeline`
|
| 331 |
+
- Fixed deprecated pandas methods (`fillna(method=...)` → `ffill()`/`bfill()`)
|
| 332 |
+
- Updated to `chronos-forecasting==2.0.0` package
|
| 333 |
+
- Fixed type hints (`any` → `Any`) across all modules
|
| 334 |
+
- Added DataFrame-based prediction interface
|
| 335 |
+
- Security improvements:
|
| 336 |
+
- Non-root user in Docker container
|
| 337 |
+
- Server-side file validation
|
| 338 |
+
- Filename sanitization
|
| 339 |
+
- Health check timeout configuration
|
| 340 |
+
- Updated model paths to support Chronos-2 (s3://autogluon/chronos-2)
|
| 341 |
+
- Fixed data format compatibility (id/timestamp/target columns)
|
| 342 |
+
- Added `requests` library for health checks
|
| 343 |
+
|
| 344 |
+
### Version 1.0.0 (Initial Release)
|
| 345 |
+
- Chronos 2 model integration
|
| 346 |
+
- Single-page Dash application
|
| 347 |
+
- CSV/Excel upload support
|
| 348 |
+
- Interactive visualizations
|
| 349 |
+
- Confidence interval display
|
| 350 |
+
- Sample datasets included
|
| 351 |
+
- Docker deployment ready
|
| 352 |
+
- Databricks Apps compatible
|
| 353 |
+
|
| 354 |
+
## Roadmap
|
| 355 |
+
|
| 356 |
+
Future enhancements being considered:
|
| 357 |
+
- Multi-series forecasting UI
|
| 358 |
+
- Model comparison features
|
| 359 |
+
- Export forecast results
|
| 360 |
+
- Custom model fine-tuning
|
| 361 |
+
- Real-time data streaming
|
| 362 |
+
- Advanced metrics dashboard
|
| 363 |
+
- API-only mode for programmatic access
|
| 364 |
+
|
| 365 |
---
|
| 366 |
|
| 367 |
+
Built with Dash and Chronos 2 for production-ready time series forecasting.
|