File size: 6,855 Bytes
483b7d0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
from __future__ import annotations

import re
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from typing import Literal

from secrag.core.logging import get_logger
from secrag.core.types import NumericResult
from secrag.ingest.xbrl import FactStore

log = get_logger(__name__)

Operation = Literal["value", "growth", "cagr", "ratio", "series"]

_YEAR_RE = re.compile(r"\b(?:fy\s?)?((?:19|20)\d{2})\b", re.IGNORECASE)

_METRIC_PHRASES: tuple[tuple[str, str], ...] = (
    ("operating cash flow", "operating_cash_flow"),
    ("cash from operations", "operating_cash_flow"),
    ("research and development", "rnd_expense"),
    ("r and d", "rnd_expense"),
    ("diluted earnings per share", "eps_diluted"),
    ("earnings per share", "eps_diluted"),
    ("diluted shares", "shares_diluted"),
    ("shares outstanding", "shares_diluted"),
    ("stockholders equity", "stockholders_equity"),
    ("shareholders equity", "stockholders_equity"),
    ("total liabilities", "total_liabilities"),
    ("total assets", "total_assets"),
    ("operating income", "operating_income"),
    ("gross profit", "gross_profit"),
    ("net income", "net_income"),
    ("net profit", "net_income"),
    ("revenue", "revenue"),
    ("sales", "revenue"),
    ("cash", "cash"),
    ("assets", "total_assets"),
    ("liabilities", "total_liabilities"),
    ("equity", "stockholders_equity"),
)

_RATIOS: tuple[tuple[str, str, str, str], ...] = (
    ("gross margin", "gross_profit", "revenue", "Gross margin"),
    ("operating margin", "operating_income", "revenue", "Operating margin"),
    ("net margin", "net_income", "revenue", "Net margin"),
    ("profit margin", "net_income", "revenue", "Net margin"),
    ("return on equity", "net_income", "stockholders_equity", "Return on equity"),
    ("roe", "net_income", "stockholders_equity", "Return on equity"),
    ("return on assets", "net_income", "total_assets", "Return on assets"),
    ("roa", "net_income", "total_assets", "Return on assets"),
)

_GROWTH_WORDS = (
    "grow",
    "grew",
    "increase",
    "decrease",
    "change",
    "changed",
    "rise",
    "rose",
    "fall",
    "fell",
    "decline",
    "up from",
    "down from",
)
_CAGR_WORDS = ("cagr", "compound annual", "compounded")
_SERIES_WORDS = ("trend", "over time", "each year", "history", "series", "year by year")


@dataclass(slots=True)
class NumericPlan:
    tickers: list[str]
    metric: str
    operation: Operation
    years: list[int] = field(default_factory=list)
    ratio_numerator: str = ""
    ratio_denominator: str = ""
    label: str = ""

    def describe(self) -> str:
        who = ", ".join(self.tickers)
        span_text = "-".join(str(y) for y in self.years) if self.years else "latest"
        return f"{self.operation}({self.metric}) for {who} over {span_text}"


def _find_tickers(question: str, store: FactStore) -> list[str]:
    known = store.tickers()
    if not known:
        return []
    found: list[str] = []
    upper = question.upper()

    for ticker in known:
        if re.search(rf"\b{re.escape(ticker)}\b", upper):
            found.append(ticker)
            continue
        rows = store.df[store.df["ticker"] == ticker]
        if rows.empty:
            continue
        company = str(rows.iloc[0]["company"])
        lead = re.split(r"[ ,.]", company.strip())[0]
        if len(lead) > 2 and re.search(rf"\b{re.escape(lead.upper())}\b", upper):
            found.append(ticker)

    return list(dict.fromkeys(found))


def _find_metric(lowered: str) -> str | None:
    for phrase, metric in _METRIC_PHRASES:
        if phrase in lowered:
            return metric
    return None


def _find_ratio(lowered: str) -> tuple[str, str, str] | None:
    for phrase, numerator, denominator, label in _RATIOS:
        if phrase in lowered:
            return numerator, denominator, label
    return None


def plan_numeric(question: str, store: FactStore) -> NumericPlan | None:
    if store.is_empty:
        return None

    lowered = question.lower()
    tickers = _find_tickers(question, store)
    if not tickers:
        return None

    years = sorted({int(y) for y in _YEAR_RE.findall(question)})
    available = set(store.years(tickers[0]))
    years = [y for y in years if y in available] or years

    if ratio := _find_ratio(lowered):
        numerator, denominator, label = ratio
        target_year = years[-1] if years else (store.latest_year(tickers[0], "revenue") or 0)
        return NumericPlan(
            tickers=tickers,
            metric=numerator,
            operation="ratio",
            years=[target_year],
            ratio_numerator=numerator,
            ratio_denominator=denominator,
            label=label,
        )

    metric = _find_metric(lowered)
    if metric is None:
        return None

    if any(word in lowered for word in _CAGR_WORDS) and len(years) >= 2:
        operation: Operation = "cagr"
    elif any(word in lowered for word in _GROWTH_WORDS) and len(years) >= 2:
        operation = "growth"
    elif any(word in lowered for word in _SERIES_WORDS):
        operation = "series"
    elif any(word in lowered for word in _GROWTH_WORDS) and len(years) == 1:
        operation = "growth"
        years = [years[0] - 1, years[0]]
    else:
        operation = "value"

    if not years:
        latest = store.latest_year(tickers[0], metric)
        if latest is None:
            return None
        years = [latest]

    return NumericPlan(tickers=tickers, metric=metric, operation=operation, years=years)


def execute_plan(plan: NumericPlan, store: FactStore) -> list[NumericResult]:
    results: list[NumericResult] = []

    for ticker in plan.tickers:
        match plan.operation:
            case "ratio":
                results.append(
                    store.ratio(
                        ticker,
                        plan.ratio_numerator,
                        plan.ratio_denominator,
                        plan.years[-1],
                        plan.label,
                    )
                )
            case "growth":
                results.append(store.growth(ticker, plan.metric, plan.years[0], plan.years[-1]))
            case "cagr":
                results.append(store.cagr(ticker, plan.metric, plan.years[0], plan.years[-1]))
            case "series":
                frame = store.series(ticker, plan.metric)
                for _, row in frame.iterrows():
                    results.append(store.value_of(ticker, plan.metric, int(row["fiscal_year"])))
            case _:
                for year in plan.years:
                    results.append(store.value_of(ticker, plan.metric, year))

    resolved = [r for r in results if r.value is not None]
    log.info(
        "numeric_plan_executed",
        plan=plan.describe(),
        resolved=len(resolved),
        total=len(results),
    )
    return resolved