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  1. .gitattributes +4 -0
  2. README.md +465 -88
  3. datasets/c3s_seasonal/hindcast_month08.nc +3 -0
  4. datasets/cavity_proximity_check.csv +28 -0
  5. datasets/cavity_proximity_check_naturelle.csv +28 -0
  6. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/cross_validation/cross_validation_summary.csv +91 -0
  7. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/cross_validation/raw_fold_results.csv +361 -0
  8. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/evap_mm_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  9. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/precip_mm_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  10. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/runoff_mm_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  11. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/snow_mm_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  12. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/solar_Wm2_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  13. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/temp_C_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  14. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/training_summary.json +569 -0
  15. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/wind_speed_ms_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  16. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/wind_u_ms_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  17. datasets/climate_anomaly_models/wind_v_ms_anomaly_model.pt +3 -0
  18. datasets/ecmwf_forecast.csv +271 -0
  19. datasets/edge_widths.csv +0 -0
  20. datasets/eure_risle_stations_full.csv +28 -0
  21. datasets/flood_detection_confusion_matrices.png +0 -0
  22. datasets/flood_detection_evaluation.csv +11 -0
  23. datasets/flood_detection_precision_recall.png +0 -0
  24. datasets/flood_events_discharge.csv +126 -0
  25. datasets/flood_events_waterlevel.csv +343 -0
  26. datasets/fp_details_horizon_5.csv +315 -0
  27. datasets/meteofrance_precipitation/daily_precipitation.csv +3 -0
  28. datasets/previous_runs_forecast.csv +0 -0
  29. datasets/reach_graph/eure_nodes_enriched.csv +0 -0
  30. datasets/reach_graph/risle_nodes_enriched.csv +0 -0
  31. datasets/single_trace_H605641201_2026-01-01.png +3 -0
  32. datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/model.pt +3 -0
  33. datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/selected_subgraph.png +3 -0
  34. datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/training_curves.png +0 -0
.gitattributes CHANGED
@@ -215,3 +215,7 @@ datasets/bdcharm50/dept_061/GEO050K_HARM_061_S_FGEOL_2154.lyr filter=lfs diff=lf
215
  datasets/bdcharm50/dept_061/GEO050K_HARM_061_S_FGEOL_2154.shp filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
216
  docs/images/eure_reach_graph.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
217
  docs/images/explore_view.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
 
 
 
 
 
215
  datasets/bdcharm50/dept_061/GEO050K_HARM_061_S_FGEOL_2154.shp filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
216
  docs/images/eure_reach_graph.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
217
  docs/images/explore_view.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
218
+ datasets/c3s_seasonal/hindcast_month08.nc filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
219
+ datasets/meteofrance_precipitation/daily_precipitation.csv filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
220
+ datasets/single_trace_H605641201_2026-01-01.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
221
+ datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/selected_subgraph.png filter=lfs diff=lfs merge=lfs -text
README.md CHANGED
@@ -18,6 +18,12 @@ braided splits/rejoins, ~4,500 nodes per basin including virtual infill
18
  points), not a single chain of gauges, with covariates pulled from nine
19
  independent data sources.
20
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
21
  ```mermaid
22
  flowchart LR
23
  hubeau["Hub'Eau<br/>discharge · water level<br/>catchment area"]
@@ -28,6 +34,8 @@ flowchart LR
28
  bdtopo["IGN BD TOPO<br/>real reach topology + catchment polygons"]
29
  bdcav["Géorisques<br/>BDCavités (sinkholes)"]
30
  wc["ESA WorldCover<br/>landcover · NDVI"]
 
 
31
 
32
  bdtopo --> brg["build_reach_graph.py<br/>real confluences, splits/rejoins,<br/>gauge snapping"]
33
  brg --> brgs["build_reach_graphs.py<br/>~4,500 nodes/basin"]
@@ -45,7 +53,13 @@ flowchart LR
45
  cc --> nf
46
 
47
  nf --> pyg["build_pyg_graph<br/>x_static / x_dynamic split"]
48
- pyg --> phys["physics_losses.py<br/>confluence · split-rejoin ·<br/>routing · water balance"]
 
 
 
 
 
 
49
 
50
  pyg --> app["src/app.py<br/>Streamlit explorer +<br/>network validation view"]
51
  pyg --> testsuite["test_build_graph.py<br/>validation"]
@@ -57,26 +71,43 @@ flowchart LR
57
 
58
  ```
59
  PoC_v1/
60
- ├── scripts/ # one-off download / extraction / build scripts
61
- │ ├── download_hubeau.py # discharge + water level, Hub'Eau API v2
62
- │ ├── download_elevation.py # point elevations, Open Topo Data
63
- │ ├── download_era5_sample.py # ERA5 sanity-check pull (Jan 2020 only)
64
- │ ├── download_era5_full.py # ERA5 1960–2026, split instant/accum vars
65
- │ ├── extract_era5.py # unzips CDS API's zipped NetCDF output
66
- │ ├── download_catchment.py # Hub'Eau referentiel/sites -> surface_bv
67
- │ ├── download_bdtopo_hydro.py # IGN WFS -> tronçons, surfaces, catchments
68
- │ ├── analyze_bdtopo_hydro.py # centerline export + karst check
69
- │ ├── run_bdtopo_checks.py # karst + catchment cross-check, one shot
70
- │ ├── cross_check_catchments.py # spatial join: station -> containing polygon
71
- │ ├── build_reach_graphs.py # real reach-based topology, both basins
72
- │ ├── enrich_reach_graph.py # runs node_features.py against the reach graph
73
- │ ├── compute_cumulative_catchment.py # graph-wide catchment area from BD TOPO polygons
74
- │ ├── diagnose_confluences.py # verify real vs. artifact confluences
75
- │ ├── build_dynamic_tensors.py # genuine [n_nodes, T] tensors, wired into physics_losses.py
76
- │ ├── download_bdcavites.py # Géorisques BDCavités (sinkhole/cavity inventory)
77
- │ ├── download_bdcharm.py # BRGM BD Charm-50 harmonized geology, per department
78
- │ ├── fetch_landcover.py # ESA WorldCover landcover class, real gauges
79
- │ └── fetch_worldcover_ndvi.py # ESA WorldCover NDVI percentile composite
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
80
  │
81
  ├── src/
82
  │ ├── app.py # Streamlit river explorer + network validation view
@@ -104,14 +135,22 @@ PoC_v1/
104
  │ ├── build_graph.py # PyG conversion: x_static/x_dynamic split, structural columns
105
  │ ├── build_reach_graph.py # real reach topology: confluences, splits/rejoins, MultiDiGraph
106
  │ ├── node_features.py # pulls every loader into one feature table (static, one row/node)
107
- │ ├── dynamic_features.py # genuine [n_nodes, T] series: discharge, groundwater, climate
108
- │ └── physics_losses.py # confluence/split-rejoin/routing/water-balance loss terms, NaN-masked
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
109
  │
110
  ├── datasets/ # not checked in; populated by the scripts above
111
  │ ├── station_list.csv # raw station roster (X, Y, names, INSEE, etc.)
112
  │ ├── station_elevations.csv # station_code, lat, lon, elevation_m
113
  │ ├── idpr.csv
114
  │ ├── catchment_area.csv
 
115
  │ ├── ades/
116
  │ ├── hydrometric/
117
  │ ├── safran/
@@ -119,15 +158,27 @@ PoC_v1/
119
  │ ├── bdcavites/
120
  │ ├── bdcharm50/
121
  │ ├── centerlines/
122
- │ └── reach_graph/ # {eure,risle}_{nodes,edges}.csv, _nodes_enriched.csv
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
123
  ```
124
 
125
- `scripts/` talks to the outside world (APIs, WFS, S3);
126
- `src/` doesn't — nothing under `src/` makes a network call, and a script
127
- under `src/` that wants one is a bug. Most of `src/data/loaders/` predates
128
- the graph work — general-purpose readers/plotters for each dataset, with
129
- `node_features.py` stitching them together afterward rather than the other
130
- way around.
 
 
 
 
131
 
132
  ---
133
 
@@ -205,7 +256,7 @@ flowchart TD
205
  xdynamic --> x
206
 
207
  edges["Edge table<br/>(build_reach_graph_tables)"] --> eattr{"numeric edge<br/>attribute?"}
208
- eattr -->|"distance_km,<br/>elevation_drop_m,<br/>verified_continuous"| edgeattr["data.edge_attr<br/>[n_edges, 3]"]
209
  eattr -->|"toponym, cleabs<br/>(diagnostic metadata)"| meta["not used by build_pyg_graph —<br/>stays in edges_df only"]
210
  ```
211
 
@@ -225,14 +276,16 @@ flowchart TD
225
  | `climate_*` (temp/wind/solar/precip/evap/snow/runoff) | ERA5, vectorized station interpolation | every node (needs `safran_path`) |
226
  | `{col}__was_missing` | auto-generated | any feature column with real gaps |
227
 
228
- **Edge features** — three numeric attributes per edge, from
229
- `build_reach_graph.py`'s `build_reach_graph_tables`:
 
230
 
231
  | Feature | Meaning |
232
  |---|---|
233
  | `distance_km` | along-river distance between the two endpoint nodes |
234
  | `elevation_drop_m` | elevation difference, upstream minus downstream — negated on the reverse edge when `bidirectional=True` |
235
  | `verified_continuous` | `False` for any edge deliberately flagged via `known_losing_reaches` (the bétoire stretch — §3.7) |
 
236
 
237
  `toponym` and `cleabs` also live on the real edges table (the tronçon's river
238
  name and unique BD TOPO ID) but are diagnostic metadata, not model input —
@@ -280,11 +333,12 @@ left-merge on `station_code` can never mislabel a confluence or virtual node).
280
 
281
  **A genuine `[n_nodes, T]` series exists separately**, in
282
  `src/graph/dynamic_features.py` — `build_discharge_timeseries`,
283
- `build_groundwater_timeseries`, `build_climate_timeseries` — built
284
- specifically because `physics_losses.py`'s `routing_consistency_loss` needs a
285
- real time dimension and had nothing to consume before this existed. Same
286
- loaders as everywhere else, no re-fetching; the only difference is that these
287
- functions pivot to wide `[date x station_code]` form instead of collapsing to
 
288
  one aggregate the way `node_features.py`'s `add_*_features` do.
289
 
290
  Two real challenges, not incidental engineering:
@@ -308,6 +362,9 @@ Two real challenges, not incidental engineering:
308
  for a basin, saves them, and feeds discharge directly into
309
  `routing_consistency_loss` alongside `build_routing_index` — the real
310
  integration point, not just parallel unconnected pieces.
 
 
 
311
 
312
  **Climate is untested against real data** — no real ERA5/`safran_path` files
313
  were available to validate `build_climate_timeseries` against in this
@@ -338,40 +395,49 @@ improvement.
338
 
339
  ### 2.5 Physics-informed loss terms (`physics_losses.py`)
340
 
341
- Four constraints, each tied to real graph structure, not generic:
 
342
 
343
  | Term | Constraint | Applies to |
344
  |---|---|---|
345
  | `confluence_mass_balance_loss` | `Q_confluence ≈ sum(Q_upstream_branches)` — new mass genuinely enters | `is_confluence` nodes |
346
  | `split_rejoin_conservation_loss` | `Q_split ≈ Q_rejoin` — same water, no new mass | paired `braid_id` nodes |
347
  | `routing_consistency_loss` | `Q_downstream[t] ≈ Q_upstream[t - lag]`, lag from real `distance_km`/slope | every edge, real `[n_nodes, T]` via `dynamic_features.py` (§2.3) |
348
- | `water_balance_loss` | `P - ET - Q - ΔS ≈ 0` in volume terms | nodes with `cumulative_catchment_area_km2` |
 
349
 
350
  Confluence and split/rejoin are deliberately different constraints, not one
351
  generic "conserve mass everywhere" rule — a model that only learned "sum the
352
  inflows" would get a split/rejoin wrong, since a rejoin's two branches
353
  together should equal the *split's* value, not add something new on top.
354
- All four apply graph-wide, not just at the 27 labeled gauges — that's the
355
- actual mechanism by which sparse supervision generalizes to the ~4,500
356
  ungauged nodes, not an incidental detail. `ΔS` (storage change) defaults to
357
  zero, a named steady-state approximation — this project has no direct
358
  basin-wide storage measurement, only sparse well *levels*, which aren't the
359
- same thing.
 
 
360
 
361
- **All four are NaN-masked, not just tolerant of complete data.** Real ground-
362
  truth Q is ~93.5% `NaN` by construction (only real gauges with real
363
  observations ever have a value — confirmed against the real discharge
364
  tensor) — that's the normal shape of the data, not a rare edge case. The
365
  shared `_mse` helper every loss function uses previously computed a plain
366
  mean, so a single `NaN` anywhere in a residual silently poisoned the *entire*
367
- loss to `NaN` — confirmed as a real, not hypothetical, failure: calling
368
- `routing_consistency_loss` directly on the real discharge tensor returned
369
- `NaN` before this was fixed. `_mse` now masks `NaN` out before averaging
370
- (returning `NaN` only if truly nothing usable exists at all, which is a
371
- real "no data" signal worth keeping, not silently averaging to a misleading
372
- `0`) — verified with the exact real scenario that first exposed the bug:
373
- `routing_consistency_loss` on the real discharge tensor now returns a real
374
- number instead of `NaN`.
 
 
 
 
 
375
 
376
  This also means these functions are directly usable as a diagnostic against
377
  real historical data alone, independent of any trained model — e.g.
@@ -443,7 +509,12 @@ about:
443
  - Everything else with no data is unexplained from the name alone and worth a
444
  direct check on Hub'Eau's site before assuming it's just a gap.
445
 
446
-
 
 
 
 
 
447
 
448
  ### 3.2 Hydrometric data (`hydrometric/`, via `scripts/download_hubeau.py`)
449
 
@@ -521,6 +592,10 @@ reach graph's ~4,500 nodes (~193,000 calls). Vectorized indexing with
521
  DataArray indexers sharing a `station` dimension does every station in one
522
  call per file instead.
523
 
 
 
 
 
524
  ### 3.5 IDPR (`idpr.csv`)
525
 
526
  BRGM's *Indice de Développement et de Persistance des Réseaux* — an
@@ -573,6 +648,15 @@ full `download_bdtopo_hydro.py → build_reach_graphs.py → enrich_reach_graph.
573
  box to actually resolve this, which had not yet happened as of the last
574
  verified run in this project.
575
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
576
  ### 3.7 BD TOPO hydrography (`bdtopo_hydro/`, via `scripts/download_bdtopo_hydro.py`)
577
 
578
  IGN's BD TOPO / BD TOPAGE hydrographic network, pulled from the Geoplateforme
@@ -587,8 +671,10 @@ that bbox:
587
  altitude data doubles as a fine-grained elevation profile, denser than
588
  anything derivable from the 27 gauge points alone.
589
  - `surface_hydrographique.geojson` — hydrographic surfaces, including a
590
- `Nature` attribute that's supposed to flag karst-influenced reaches. IGN
591
- documents this attribute as **provisional and incomplete**.
 
 
592
  - `bassin_versant_topographique.geojson` — catchment polygons, incremental
593
  (see §3.6).
594
 
@@ -699,9 +785,251 @@ km average snap distance rather than 0.05 km. It's the fallback when a real
699
  vector source isn't available, not the method used for the current
700
  `centerlines/` files.
701
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
702
  ---
703
 
704
- ## 4. Applications
705
 
706
  `src/app.py` (Streamlit) has two views, selected by a radio at the top:
707
 
@@ -740,7 +1068,7 @@ development, not just a theoretical risk.
740
 
741
  ---
742
 
743
- ## 5. Testing (`src/test_build_graph.py`)
744
 
745
  Not a unit test suite in the pytest sense — a script with two independent
746
  sections, both run from `main()`.
@@ -764,8 +1092,8 @@ they can't silently reintroduce themselves:
764
  `feature_names`, but remain accessible as their own `Data` attributes
765
  - target values never attach to a non-gauge node, and target coverage never
766
  exceeds the real gauge count
767
- - `edge_attr` stays exactly 3 columns despite extra edge metadata
768
- (`toponym`, `cleabs`) sitting on the real edges table
769
  - `physics_losses.py`'s `build_confluence_index`/`build_braid_index` produce
770
  counts matching `is_confluence`/`is_rejoin_point` sums, with every index
771
  within node bounds and every confluence having ≥ 2 upstream branches
@@ -776,25 +1104,49 @@ they can't silently reintroduce themselves:
776
  Exits 0 on a clean pass across both sections, 1 otherwise — usable as a
777
  pre-commit or CI gate if that's ever set up.
778
 
 
 
 
 
 
779
  ---
780
 
781
- ## 6. Known limitations and open questions
782
 
783
  - **`cumulative_catchment_area_km2` underestimates the largest catchments**
784
  by up to ~25%, traced to the BD TOPO pull's original bounding box having an
785
  insufficient southern margin. The bbox has been widened in
786
  `download_bdtopo_hydro.py`; the full re-pull-and-rebuild chain needs
787
- re-running for this to actually resolve. Treat the largest catchments'
788
- values as approximate until then.
 
 
789
  - **Climate's genuine time series (`build_climate_timeseries`) is untested
790
  against real data** — discharge and groundwater's equivalents are; verify
791
  climate's real output before relying on it.
792
  - **Landcover and NDVI only cover the 27 real gauges**, not the full reach
793
  graph — same scope `catchment_area_km2` had before its cumulative-BD-TOPO
794
  extension.
795
- - **No model exists yet.** This repo builds the graph and the physics-loss
796
- substrate a model would train against; there is no architecture, forward
797
- pass, or training loop here.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
798
  - **The karst losing-reach flag rests on naming evidence and a BDCavités
799
  cross-check** (§3.7–3.8), not a fully confirmed BD TOPO classification.
800
  - **The groundwater-well BDLISA aquifer-unit field is unused.** First place
@@ -803,51 +1155,76 @@ pre-commit or CI gate if that's ever set up.
803
 
804
  ---
805
 
806
- ## 7. Running things
807
 
808
  Data acquisition (from repo root, in roughly dependency order):
809
 
810
  ```bash
811
- python -m scripts.download_hubeau
812
- python -m scripts.download_elevation
813
- python -m scripts.download_era5_full # slow; download_era5_sample.py first if just testing
814
- python -m scripts.extract_era5
815
- python -m scripts.download_catchment
816
- python -m scripts.download_bdtopo_hydro --check # verify typeNames before the real pull
817
- python -m scripts.download_bdtopo_hydro
818
- python -m scripts.download_bdcavites --check
819
- python -m scripts.download_bdcavites
820
- python -m scripts.download_bdcharm
 
 
 
821
  ```
822
 
823
  Build and validate the reach graph:
824
 
825
  ```bash
826
- python -m scripts.build_reach_graphs --data-root datasets
827
- python -m scripts.enrich_reach_graph --data-root datasets # --skip-climate if that step hangs
828
- python -m scripts.compute_cumulative_catchment --data-root datasets
829
- python -m scripts.diagnose_confluences --data-root datasets --basin eure
830
- python -m scripts.diagnose_confluences --data-root datasets --basin risle
 
831
  ```
832
 
833
  Build genuine `[n_nodes, T]` dynamic tensors and verify the physics-loss wiring:
834
 
835
  ```bash
836
- python -m scripts.build_dynamic_tensors --data-root datasets --basin risle
837
- python -m scripts.build_dynamic_tensors --data-root datasets --basin eure
838
  ```
839
 
840
  Landcover / NDVI, real gauges only (needs `rasterio`, and `geopandas` for NDVI's
841
  tile lookup):
842
 
843
  ```bash
844
- python -m scripts.fetch_landcover --check
845
- python -m scripts.fetch_landcover
846
- python -m scripts.fetch_worldcover_ndvi --check
847
- python -m scripts.fetch_worldcover_ndvi
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
848
  ```
849
 
850
- Validate everything against whatever's actually in `datasets/`:
851
 
852
  ```bash
853
  python -m src.test_build_graph --data-root datasets
 
18
  points), not a single chain of gauges, with covariates pulled from nine
19
  independent data sources.
20
 
21
+ The model itself is a spatiotemporal GNN trained with quantile regression
22
+ (not a single point estimate) and four graph-tied physics losses, evaluated
23
+ directly against real historical flood events rather than only against a
24
+ naive baseline. See [§4](#4-the-model) for the architecture and real,
25
+ current evaluation results.
26
+
27
  ```mermaid
28
  flowchart LR
29
  hubeau["Hub'Eau<br/>discharge · water level<br/>catchment area"]
 
34
  bdtopo["IGN BD TOPO<br/>real reach topology + catchment polygons"]
35
  bdcav["Géorisques<br/>BDCavités (sinkholes)"]
36
  wc["ESA WorldCover<br/>landcover · NDVI"]
37
+ mf["Météo-France<br/>real historical precipitation"]
38
+ ecmwf["ECMWF (Open-Meteo)<br/>real forecast archive"]
39
 
40
  bdtopo --> brg["build_reach_graph.py<br/>real confluences, splits/rejoins,<br/>gauge snapping"]
41
  brg --> brgs["build_reach_graphs.py<br/>~4,500 nodes/basin"]
 
53
  cc --> nf
54
 
55
  nf --> pyg["build_pyg_graph<br/>x_static / x_dynamic split"]
56
+ pyg --> phys["physics_losses.py<br/>confluence · split-rejoin ·<br/>routing · manning · water balance"]
57
+
58
+ mf --> train
59
+ ecmwf --> train
60
+ phys --> train["train_spatiotemporal_gnn.py<br/>quantile regression + physics losses,<br/>100-node subgraph"]
61
+ train --> model["model.pt<br/>trained checkpoint"]
62
+ model --> eval["evaluate_flood_detection.py<br/>vs. real historical flood events"]
63
 
64
  pyg --> app["src/app.py<br/>Streamlit explorer +<br/>network validation view"]
65
  pyg --> testsuite["test_build_graph.py<br/>validation"]
 
71
 
72
  ```
73
  PoC_v1/
74
+ ├── scripts/ # organized by purpose, not a flat list — see the
75
+ │ │ # category note below the tree
76
+ │ ├── data_acquisition/ # everything that talks to an external API/WFS/S3
77
+ │ │ ├── download_hubeau.py # discharge + water level, Hub'Eau API v2
78
+ │ │ ├── download_elevation.py # point elevations, Open Topo Data
79
+ │ │ ├── download_era5_sample.py # ERA5 sanity-check pull (Jan 2020 only)
80
+ │ │ ├── download_era5_full.py # ERA5 1960–2026, split instant/accum vars
81
+ │ │ ├── extract_era5.py # unzips CDS API's zipped NetCDF output
82
+ │ │ ├── download_catchment.py # Hub'Eau referentiel/sites -> surface_bv
83
+ │ │ ├── download_bdtopo_hydro.py # IGN WFS -> tronçons, surfaces, catchments
84
+ │ │ ├── download_bdcavites.py # Géorisques BDCavités (sinkhole/cavity inventory)
85
+ │ │ ├── download_bdcharm.py # BRGM BD Charm-50 harmonized geology, per department
86
+ │ │ ├── fetch_landcover.py # ESA WorldCover landcover class, real gauges
87
+ │ │ ├── fetch_worldcover_ndvi.py # ESA WorldCover NDVI percentile composite
88
+ │ │ ├── fetch_ecmwf_forecast.py # live ECMWF forecast, Open-Meteo (current conditions only)
89
+ │ │ ├── fetch_previous_runs.py # historical ECMWF forecast archive, Open-Meteo Previous Runs API
90
+ │ │ └── fetch_meteofrance_precipitation.py # real historical precipitation, Météo-France public API
91
+ │ │
92
+ │ ├── graph_building/ # everything that builds or enriches the real reach graph
93
+ │ │ ├── build_reach_graphs.py # real reach-based topology, both basins
94
+ │ │ ├── enrich_reach_graph.py # runs node_features.py against the reach graph
95
+ │ │ ├── compute_cumulative_catchment.py # graph-wide catchment area from BD TOPO polygons
96
+ │ │ ├── compute_edge_width.py # real channel width from BD TOPO polygons, per edge
97
+ │ │ ├── diagnose_confluences.py # verify real vs. artifact confluences
98
+ │ │ └── build_dynamic_tensors.py # genuine [n_nodes, T] tensors, wired into physics_losses.py
99
+ │ │
100
+ │ ├── analysis/ # one-off diagnostics, not part of the main pipeline
101
+ │ │ ├── analyze_bdtopo_hydro.py # centerline export + karst check
102
+ │ │ ├── run_bdtopo_checks.py # karst + catchment cross-check, one shot
103
+ │ │ └── cross_check_catchments.py # spatial join: station -> containing polygon
104
+ │ │
105
+ │ ├── training/
106
+ │ │ └── train_spatiotemporal_gnn.py # main model: quantile regression + physics losses (§4)
107
+ │ │
108
+ │ └── evaluation/
109
+ │ ├── identify_flood_events.py # real historical high-flow events — ground truth
110
+ │ └── evaluate_flood_detection.py # precision/recall of the trained model vs. real historical floods
111
  │
112
  ├── src/
113
  │ ├── app.py # Streamlit river explorer + network validation view
 
135
  │ ├── build_graph.py # PyG conversion: x_static/x_dynamic split, structural columns
136
  │ ├── build_reach_graph.py # real reach topology: confluences, splits/rejoins, MultiDiGraph
137
  │ ├── node_features.py # pulls every loader into one feature table (static, one row/node)
138
+ │ ├── dynamic_features.py # genuine [n_nodes, T] series: discharge, groundwater, climate,
139
+ │ │ # precipitation, forecast (§4.4, §4.5)
140
+ │ ├── physics_losses.py # confluence/split-rejoin/routing/manning/water-balance loss terms,
141
+ │ │ # NaN-masked (§2.5, §4.3)
142
+ │ ├── spatiotemporal_gnn.py # the model — TypeAwareInputEncoder, RiverMessagePassing (spatial),
143
+ │ │ # per-node GRU (temporal), quantile decoder (§4.1)
144
+ │ ├── pinball_loss.py # quantile regression loss, asymmetric and NaN-masked (§4.2)
145
+ │ └── subgraph_selection.py # real-gauge + confluence/braid subgraph reduction for
146
+ │ # tractable training (§4.6)
147
  │
148
  ├── datasets/ # not checked in; populated by the scripts above
149
  │ ├── station_list.csv # raw station roster (X, Y, names, INSEE, etc.)
150
  │ ├── station_elevations.csv # station_code, lat, lon, elevation_m
151
  │ ├── idpr.csv
152
  │ ├── catchment_area.csv
153
+ │ ├── edge_widths.csv # real channel width per edge, from compute_edge_width.py
154
  │ ├── ades/
155
  │ ├── hydrometric/
156
  │ ├── safran/
 
158
  │ ├── bdcavites/
159
  │ ├── bdcharm50/
160
  │ ├── centerlines/
161
+ │ ├── meteofrance_precipitation/ # real historical precipitation, Météo-France (§3.12)
162
+ │ │ └── daily_precipitation.csv
163
+ │ ├── previous_runs_forecast.csv # real ECMWF forecast archive, partial coverage (§3.13)
164
+ │ ├── flood_events_discharge.csv # real historical high-flow events — ground truth (§4.7)
165
+ │ ├── flood_events_waterlevel.csv
166
+ │ ├── flood_detection_evaluation.csv # confusion matrix by lead time, real held-out test data
167
+ │ ├── reach_graph/ # {eure,risle}_{nodes,edges}.csv, _nodes_enriched.csv
168
+ │ └── spatiotemporal_gnn/
169
+ │ └── model.pt # trained model checkpoint
170
  ```
171
 
172
+ `scripts/` talks to the outside world (APIs, WFS, S3) or trains/evaluates a
173
+ model against real data; `src/` doesn't — nothing under `src/` makes a
174
+ network call, and a script under `src/` that wants one is a bug. Most of
175
+ `src/data/loaders/` predates the graph work — general-purpose
176
+ readers/plotters for each dataset, with `node_features.py` stitching them
177
+ together afterward rather than the other way around. `scripts/` itself is
178
+ organized into subfolders by purpose (`data_acquisition/`, `graph_building/`,
179
+ `analysis/`, `training/`, `evaluation/`) — every category listed in the tree
180
+ above needs its own `__init__.py` for `python -m scripts.category.script_name`
181
+ to resolve correctly.
182
 
183
  ---
184
 
 
256
  xdynamic --> x
257
 
258
  edges["Edge table<br/>(build_reach_graph_tables)"] --> eattr{"numeric edge<br/>attribute?"}
259
+ eattr -->|"distance_km,<br/>elevation_drop_m,<br/>verified_continuous,<br/>width_m"| edgeattr["data.edge_attr<br/>[n_edges, 4]"]
260
  eattr -->|"toponym, cleabs<br/>(diagnostic metadata)"| meta["not used by build_pyg_graph —<br/>stays in edges_df only"]
261
  ```
262
 
 
276
  | `climate_*` (temp/wind/solar/precip/evap/snow/runoff) | ERA5, vectorized station interpolation | every node (needs `safran_path`) |
277
  | `{col}__was_missing` | auto-generated | any feature column with real gaps |
278
 
279
+ **Edge features** — four numeric attributes per edge, from
280
+ `build_reach_graph.py`'s `build_reach_graph_tables` (three original plus real
281
+ channel width, added by `compute_edge_width.py`):
282
 
283
  | Feature | Meaning |
284
  |---|---|
285
  | `distance_km` | along-river distance between the two endpoint nodes |
286
  | `elevation_drop_m` | elevation difference, upstream minus downstream — negated on the reverse edge when `bidirectional=True` |
287
  | `verified_continuous` | `False` for any edge deliberately flagged via `known_losing_reaches` (the bétoire stretch — §3.7) |
288
+ | `width_m` (+ `width_missing_flag`) | real channel width, derived from BD TOPO polygon area ÷ tronçon length; `NaN` (not zero) where no real polygon match exists, with an explicit missingness flag rather than a silent fill — real coverage is partial, not universal |
289
 
290
  `toponym` and `cleabs` also live on the real edges table (the tronçon's river
291
  name and unique BD TOPO ID) but are diagnostic metadata, not model input —
 
333
 
334
  **A genuine `[n_nodes, T]` series exists separately**, in
335
  `src/graph/dynamic_features.py` — `build_discharge_timeseries`,
336
+ `build_waterlevel_timeseries`, `build_groundwater_timeseries`,
337
+ `build_climate_timeseries`, and (added for model training, §4)
338
+ `build_precipitation_timeseries` and `build_forecast_tensor`. Same
339
+ loaders as everywhere else, no re-fetching; the difference is that these
340
+ functions pivot to wide `[date x station_code]` form (or, for the forecast
341
+ archive, a real per-lead-time lookup — see §3.13) instead of collapsing to
342
  one aggregate the way `node_features.py`'s `add_*_features` do.
343
 
344
  Two real challenges, not incidental engineering:
 
362
  for a basin, saves them, and feeds discharge directly into
363
  `routing_consistency_loss` alongside `build_routing_index` — the real
364
  integration point, not just parallel unconnected pieces.
365
+ `train_spatiotemporal_gnn.py` (§4) is the fuller integration point, wiring
366
+ discharge, water level, groundwater, precipitation, and (partially) forecast
367
+ data together into one training loop.
368
 
369
  **Climate is untested against real data** — no real ERA5/`safran_path` files
370
  were available to validate `build_climate_timeseries` against in this
 
395
 
396
  ### 2.5 Physics-informed loss terms (`physics_losses.py`)
397
 
398
+ Five constraints, each tied to real graph structure, not generic — four
399
+ original, plus Manning's equation added alongside the model (§4.3):
400
 
401
  | Term | Constraint | Applies to |
402
  |---|---|---|
403
  | `confluence_mass_balance_loss` | `Q_confluence ≈ sum(Q_upstream_branches)` — new mass genuinely enters | `is_confluence` nodes |
404
  | `split_rejoin_conservation_loss` | `Q_split ≈ Q_rejoin` — same water, no new mass | paired `braid_id` nodes |
405
  | `routing_consistency_loss` | `Q_downstream[t] ≈ Q_upstream[t - lag]`, lag from real `distance_km`/slope | every edge, real `[n_nodes, T]` via `dynamic_features.py` (§2.3) |
406
+ | `manning_consistency_loss` | `Q ≈ (1/n)·A·R^(2/3)·S^(1/2)`, learned roughness `n`, with a bank-height relaxation gate so overbank flow isn't penalized against in-channel physics | every edge with real width data |
407
+ | `water_balance_loss` | `P - ET - Q - ΔS ≈ 0` in volume terms, normalized to a relative (not absolute) imbalance | nodes with `cumulative_catchment_area_km2` and real precipitation |
408
 
409
  Confluence and split/rejoin are deliberately different constraints, not one
410
  generic "conserve mass everywhere" rule — a model that only learned "sum the
411
  inflows" would get a split/rejoin wrong, since a rejoin's two branches
412
  together should equal the *split's* value, not add something new on top.
413
+ All four original terms apply graph-wide, not just at the 27 labeled gauges
414
+ — that's the actual mechanism by which sparse supervision generalizes to the
415
  ungauged nodes, not an incidental detail. `ΔS` (storage change) defaults to
416
  zero, a named steady-state approximation — this project has no direct
417
  basin-wide storage measurement, only sparse well *levels*, which aren't the
418
+ same thing; likewise `ET` defaults to `0.0`, since real evapotranspiration
419
+ data exists (from the ERA5 climate work) but lives on a different grid than
420
+ this graph's nodes, and mapping between them is unstarted work.
421
 
422
+ **All five are NaN-masked, not just tolerant of complete data.** Real ground-
423
  truth Q is ~93.5% `NaN` by construction (only real gauges with real
424
  observations ever have a value — confirmed against the real discharge
425
  tensor) — that's the normal shape of the data, not a rare edge case. The
426
  shared `_mse` helper every loss function uses previously computed a plain
427
  mean, so a single `NaN` anywhere in a residual silently poisoned the *entire*
428
+ loss to `NaN` — confirmed as a real, not hypothetical, failure. `_mse` now
429
+ masks `NaN` out before averaging (returning `NaN` only if truly nothing
430
+ usable exists at all, which is a real "no data" signal worth keeping, not
431
+ silently averaging to a misleading `0`).
432
+
433
+ Masking the *value* isn't sufficient on its own, either — a second, separate
434
+ real bug found during model training (§4.3): a masked-out `NaN` upstream
435
+ input can still poison a *gradient*, since `0 × NaN = NaN` in IEEE754
436
+ arithmetic even when the outer loss correctly excludes that position. The
437
+ real fix, applied in `water_balance_loss`, is to replace `NaN` inputs with a
438
+ safe finite placeholder *before* any arithmetic touches them, and apply the
439
+ real `valid` mask only at the very end, for loss selection — not to rely on
440
+ masking alone to keep `NaN` out of the graph.
441
 
442
  This also means these functions are directly usable as a diagnostic against
443
  real historical data alone, independent of any trained model — e.g.
 
509
  - Everything else with no data is unexplained from the name alone and worth a
510
  direct check on Hub'Eau's site before assuming it's just a gap.
511
 
512
+ 14 of the 27 stations have neither real discharge nor real water-level data
513
+ at all. These aren't excluded from the graph — they still get real static
514
+ attributes (landcover, geology, catchment area) and, since §4.4, a real
515
+ precipitation-based discharge *estimate* as an input feature (never a
516
+ target), plus whatever signal reaches them through message passing from
517
+ nearby gauged nodes.
518
 
519
  ### 3.2 Hydrometric data (`hydrometric/`, via `scripts/download_hubeau.py`)
520
 
 
592
  DataArray indexers sharing a `station` dimension does every station in one
593
  call per file instead.
594
 
595
+ Note: this is real historical *reanalysis* — a model-based reconstruction of
596
+ what already happened, not a forecast. §3.13 covers the separate, genuine
597
+ forecast archive used for real advance-warning signal in the model (§4.5).
598
+
599
  ### 3.5 IDPR (`idpr.csv`)
600
 
601
  BRGM's *Indice de Développement et de Persistance des Réseaux* — an
 
648
  box to actually resolve this, which had not yet happened as of the last
649
  verified run in this project.
650
 
651
+ **In practice, the model (§4) currently uses a per-node fallback between the
652
+ two sources**, since `cumulative_catchment_area_km2` isn't present at all on
653
+ the real enriched node tables used for training as of the last verified run —
654
+ `catchment_area_km2` (Hub'Eau, real but gauge-only) is used wherever the
655
+ cumulative BD TOPO value is missing. This recovers real catchment area for
656
+ real gauges but not for confluences or braid points without a Hub'Eau
657
+ delineation; those still have no real catchment area at all until the
658
+ BD TOPO re-pull above is actually run.
659
+
660
  ### 3.7 BD TOPO hydrography (`bdtopo_hydro/`, via `scripts/download_bdtopo_hydro.py`)
661
 
662
  IGN's BD TOPO / BD TOPAGE hydrographic network, pulled from the Geoplateforme
 
671
  altitude data doubles as a fine-grained elevation profile, denser than
672
  anything derivable from the 27 gauge points alone.
673
  - `surface_hydrographique.geojson` — hydrographic surfaces, including a
674
+ `Nature` attribute that's supposed to flag karst-influenced reaches (IGN
675
+ documents this attribute as **provisional and incomplete**), and the real
676
+ source for `compute_edge_width.py`'s channel-width derivation (§2.2):
677
+ polygon area ÷ tronçon length, joined by `cleabs`.
678
  - `bassin_versant_topographique.geojson` — catchment polygons, incremental
679
  (see §3.6).
680
 
 
785
  vector source isn't available, not the method used for the current
786
  `centerlines/` files.
787
 
788
+ ### 3.12 Real historical precipitation (`meteofrance_precipitation/`)
789
+
790
+ Real, directly-measured rain-gauge observations from Météo-France's public
791
+ "Données climatologiques de base — horaires" dataset — deliberately not ERA5
792
+ reanalysis (§3.4) for this specific variable: precipitation varies sharply
793
+ over short distances in ways a ~9 km reanalysis grid cell can miss, so a real
794
+ nearby gauge is more locally authoritative where one exists. Official source,
795
+ Open Licence 2.0, no authentication — `fetch_meteofrance_precipitation.py`
796
+ fetches only the departments this project needs (27, 28, 61) and only the
797
+ decades overlapping the real study period, aggregating real hourly `RR1`
798
+ readings to daily sums per station.
799
+
800
+ Each graph node reads from its nearest real Météo-France gauge by haversine
801
+ distance (`map_stations_to_precipitation_gauges`) — several nodes can share
802
+ one real gauge if they're close together, which is expected, not a bug, the
803
+ same way several climate stations already share one ERA5 grid cell elsewhere
804
+ in this project.
805
+
806
+ **Also used to estimate discharge for stations with no real gauge data at
807
+ all** (§3.1): `fit_specific_discharge_coefficient` fits a simple, standard
808
+ hydrological scaling relationship (`Q ≈ k · precipitation · catchment_area`,
809
+ a real regionalization technique) using only real (discharge, precipitation,
810
+ catchment area) triples from gauged stations during the training period, then
811
+ applies it to every node with real precipitation and catchment area,
812
+ including the 14 with no real discharge history. This is wired in as a model
813
+ **input feature**, never a target — it's a real, physically-grounded
814
+ estimate, not a measurement, and reaches the model exactly the way every
815
+ other imperfect-but-real input does.
816
+
817
+ ### 3.13 Real ECMWF forecast archive (`previous_runs_forecast.csv`)
818
+
819
+ Real historical forecasts — not the live current forecast, and a genuinely
820
+ different thing from ERA5 reanalysis (§3.4): reanalysis is a best estimate of
821
+ what already happened, with zero forecast skill baked in; this archive is
822
+ what was actually predicted *in advance*, which is what a model needs to
823
+ learn genuine multi-day-ahead skill from. Fetched via
824
+ `fetch_previous_runs.py` (Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API).
825
+
826
+ Real, confirmed schema: one row per real observation date, with several
827
+ `precipitation_previous_dayN` columns — each holding what was forecasted `N`
828
+ days before that date, *for* that date. For an anchor date `t` and a horizon
829
+ `h`, the real forecast value lives in the row for `date = t + h`, column
830
+ `precipitation_previous_day{h}` — not the row for `t` itself, since that
831
+ forecast was issued on `(t+h) - h = t`, the anchor. `station_code` in this
832
+ file already matches this project's real graph node codes directly — no
833
+ nearest-neighbor mapping needed here, unlike §3.12's precipitation gauges.
834
+
835
+ **Real, significant coverage limits, not implementation gaps**: only lead
836
+ times `[1, 2, 3, 5, 7]` days have any real data at all — none of this
837
+ project's other horizons (4, 10, 30, 60, 90, 180) have real forecast data,
838
+ ever. Coverage also only starts **2024-03-01** — the large majority of this
839
+ project's 2013+ training window has no real forecast data regardless of lead
840
+ time. Both gaps are handled with an explicit real/missing flag per
841
+ `(example, node, horizon)`, the same value-plus-missingness pattern used
842
+ throughout this project, not a silent fill.
843
+
844
+ **A real, confirmed gotcha worth flagging directly**: with this project's
845
+ default `--train-end`/`--val-end` split, the *entire* real forecast archive
846
+ falls after the validation cutoff — meaning the model can see 0% real
847
+ forecast coverage during training and validation, then 100% at evaluation
848
+ time. That mismatch produced a genuine, measured collapse in evaluation
849
+ performance at exactly the horizons where real forecast coverage is densest,
850
+ since the model's forecast-conditioning pathway was never trained on any
851
+ real (non-missing) input. The fix is a `--train-end`/`--val-end` shift so all
852
+ three splits genuinely overlap the real forecast-covered period — see §4.5
853
+ and §7.
854
+
855
+ ---
856
+
857
+ ## 4. The model
858
+
859
+ ### 4.1 Architecture (`spatiotemporal_gnn.py`)
860
+
861
+ `SpatiotemporalGNN` predicts discharge and water level at any node — gauged
862
+ or ungauged — for a requested lead time, trained end-to-end against the real
863
+ graph and physics substrate above.
864
+
865
+ - **Input encoding** (`TypeAwareInputEncoder`): gauged nodes get a dedicated
866
+ encoder path over real static features plus dynamic history; non-gauged
867
+ nodes get a learned placeholder, rather than forcing every node through
868
+ the same encoder as if the ~14 uninstrumented stations (§3.1) had real
869
+ time series to offer.
870
+ - **Spatial** (`RiverMessagePassing`, two stacked layers): directed message
871
+ passing over the real reach graph, respecting real flow direction, with
872
+ **sum aggregation, not mean** — deliberate, not a default left
873
+ unconsidered: a confluence's downstream discharge is the *sum* of its
874
+ upstream branches (§2.5), so the aggregation itself reflects that physical
875
+ reality rather than averaging it away.
876
+ - **Temporal** (a per-node GRU): runs over the real 30-day lookback window,
877
+ fed by the spatial layers' output *at each timestep* — spatial happens
878
+ first, then the resulting sequence of embeddings goes through the GRU, so
879
+ the recurrent step learns genuine spatiotemporal patterns rather than each
880
+ node's isolated history.
881
+ - **Decoder**: combines the GRU's final hidden state with a basin embedding,
882
+ a horizon embedding (letting one trained model answer at ten different
883
+ lead times without retraining separately for each), and — when available —
884
+ a real forecast-precipitation embedding (§4.5), then outputs quantile
885
+ predictions for discharge and water level.
886
+
887
+ ### 4.2 Quantile regression, not a point estimate (`pinball_loss.py`)
888
+
889
+ The model predicts several quantiles (`[0.5, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99]` by default)
890
+ per target, not a single value — a real, evidence-driven architecture
891
+ decision, not a default choice. Real discharge is heavily right-skewed
892
+ (confirmed against real data: the 99th percentile runs 4–12x the median), and
893
+ a model trained on plain MSE structurally minimizes *average* error, which
894
+ means predicting close to the mean is a genuinely good strategy for MSE and a
895
+ genuinely bad one for flood risk — confirmed directly, not just argued: an
896
+ earlier MSE-trained version of this model caught **0 of 203** real historical
897
+ flood events at every tested lead time (§4.7), despite showing real average-
898
+ case skill.
899
+
900
+ Pinball loss is asymmetric by construction: for a high quantile (e.g. 0.95),
901
+ under-predicting is penalized far more than over-predicting by the same
902
+ amount, which is the actual mechanism that pushes the model to cover the
903
+ real tail rather than hide near the mean.
904
+
905
+ **Quantile crossing is architecturally impossible, not just discouraged.** A
906
+ well-known failure mode of naive quantile regression is the predicted 90th
907
+ percentile coming out *lower* than the predicted median — physically
908
+ nonsensical. The lowest quantile is predicted directly; every subsequent one
909
+ is the previous quantile plus a `softplus`-transformed (always non-negative)
910
+ offset, so `quantile[k] ≥ quantile[k-1]` holds for every real input,
911
+ including deliberately adversarial ones.
912
+
913
+ The naive baseline this model is compared against is also quantile-aware —
914
+ each quantile's naive prediction is that quantile's own real empirical value
915
+ from the training-period distribution (the direct quantile-regression
916
+ equivalent of climatology as a baseline in the earlier climate work), not
917
+ zero or the mean for every quantile alike.
918
+
919
+ ### 4.3 Physics losses, wired into training
920
+
921
+ All five terms from §2.5 are combined per training example, horizon-weighted
922
+ rather than with one fixed weight applied uniformly — routing and water
923
+ balance specifically only apply to the short contiguous-horizon block (the
924
+ first 5 daily steps), since both need a real, physically comparable period,
925
+ not a mismatched one.
926
+
927
+ Two real numerical-stability bugs were found and fixed during training,
928
+ worth naming since both generalize beyond this specific project:
929
+
930
+ - **Manning's equation** (`1/n`, `hydraulic_radius^(2/3)`) has genuinely
931
+ steep local derivatives near its natural boundaries — an untrained model's
932
+ raw output is close to unconstrained noise, and a single bad step could
933
+ push `n` toward zero, producing a real, not hypothetical, `inf` loss
934
+ (confirmed: two real training runs failed exactly this way before the
935
+ fix). `n`, bank height, hydraulic radius, and depth are all explicitly
936
+ clamped to physically real ranges before use.
937
+ - **A gradient-masking gotcha in `water_balance_loss`** (§2.5): a value
938
+ correctly excluded from the *loss* can still corrupt its *gradient* if
939
+ `NaN` entered the computation before masking, since `0 × NaN = NaN`. Fixed
940
+ by replacing `NaN` with a safe finite placeholder before any arithmetic,
941
+ not by relying on the final mask alone.
942
+
943
+ **A real, current limitation worth being direct about**: Manning's learned
944
+ roughness `n` has landed on implausible values across real training runs
945
+ (0.38–0.92, against a real natural-stream range of roughly 0.025–0.1), and
946
+ varies meaningfully run to run rather than converging to a stable estimate.
947
+ The likely mechanism is clamp saturation — the value used *inside* the loss
948
+ computation is clamped to `[0.01, 0.3]` for numerical safety, and once the
949
+ underlying parameter drifts past that ceiling, the clamp's own gradient is
950
+ zero there, removing further corrective signal. This means Manning's
951
+ equation has likely been running at its artificial ceiling for meaningful
952
+ stretches of training rather than converging to a physically informed value
953
+ — worth investigating (a wider clamp range, or a gradient that doesn't
954
+ vanish at the boundary) before trusting this specific learned parameter.
955
+
956
+ ### 4.4 Real precipitation and a specific-discharge estimate
957
+
958
+ Covered fully in §3.12. In short: real Météo-France precipitation feeds the
959
+ temporal encoder directly as a dynamic input channel, and — for the 14
960
+ stations with no real discharge history — a real, physically-grounded
961
+ specific-discharge estimate (fit only on real gauged data, applied uniformly
962
+ to every node) gives the model a genuine signal to work with instead of
963
+ nothing, without ever fabricating a value the supervised loss is held
964
+ accountable to match.
965
+
966
+ ### 4.5 Real forecast integration
967
+
968
+ Covered fully in §3.13. The model's decoder accepts real forecasted
969
+ precipitation per `(node, horizon)`, defaulting to fully-missing when no real
970
+ forecast dataset is wired in — backward compatible with every training run
971
+ before this was added. Given the real, confirmed train/test coverage
972
+ mismatch documented in §3.13, using this correctly requires shifting
973
+ `--train-end`/`--val-end` so training and validation genuinely overlap the
974
+ real 2024-03-01+ forecast-covered period (see §7 for the actual command) —
975
+ using the project's older default split dates with forecast data wired in
976
+ will reproduce the coverage-mismatch failure, not avoid it.
977
+
978
+ ### 4.6 Subgraph reduction (`subgraph_selection.py`)
979
+
980
+ Training runs against a real, reduced 100-node subgraph (50 nodes per basin:
981
+ real gauges plus real confluences/braid points only — **virtual infill
982
+ nodes are deliberately excluded**, not because they're uninteresting, but
983
+ because training on the full ~4,500-node graph per basin was not tractable
984
+ within this project's real compute constraints. Chains through dropped nodes
985
+ are collapsed into single edges (summing distance/elevation, distance-
986
+ weighting average width) rather than simply deleted, so real connectivity
987
+ between kept nodes is preserved exactly. A full-graph retrain, once the
988
+ 100-node architecture is validated, remains real, unstarted future work.
989
+
990
+ ### 4.7 Real evaluation
991
+
992
+ **`identify_flood_events.py`** establishes real ground truth independent of
993
+ any model: real historical high-flow events, defined per station by that
994
+ station's own real historical percentile (95th by default — a
995
+ station-relative, not a shared absolute, threshold, since these rivers have
996
+ very different real scales), with consecutive above-threshold days grouped
997
+ into discrete events rather than counted individually.
998
+
999
+ **`evaluate_flood_detection.py`** checks the trained model against this real
1000
+ ground truth on the held-out real test split — flagging a real event when
1001
+ the model's predicted upper quantile (0.95 by default, matching the same
1002
+ percentile `identify_flood_events.py` uses) exceeds that station's real
1003
+ threshold, not the median, since flood risk is a tail question. Precision
1004
+ and recall are reported per lead time, since catching a flood a day out and
1005
+ catching it a week out are different questions that would be hidden by one
1006
+ combined number.
1007
+
1008
+ Real, current results (subject to change as the model continues to be
1009
+ refined — treat these as a snapshot, not a final claim):
1010
+
1011
+ - The naive-baseline comparison (§4.2) shows real, meaningful skill: the
1012
+ quantile model beats the real empirical-quantile baseline by roughly
1013
+ 30–50% on both discharge and water level across real training runs.
1014
+ - Real flood-detection recall at short lead times (1–5 days) has reached
1015
+ roughly 65–70% in real evaluation runs — a genuine, validated improvement
1016
+ over the earlier MSE-trained model's `0/203`.
1017
+ - **Precision remains low in absolute terms** (under 10% at every tested
1018
+ horizon in the most recent full evaluation) — real, meaningful skill above
1019
+ the base rate at short horizons, but still many false alarms; not yet
1020
+ something to treat as deployment-ready without further tuning (e.g. a
1021
+ higher `--flag-quantile`, trading recall for precision).
1022
+ - **Long-horizon "skill" needs a base-rate check, not just a recall number**:
1023
+ at the longest tested horizon (180 days), precision has landed *below* the
1024
+ real base rate in at least one evaluation run — a sign the model is likely
1025
+ hedging with a wide quantile spread rather than genuinely predicting that
1026
+ far out, not a sign of real long-range foresight. `evaluate_flood_
1027
+ detection.py`'s output should always be read against the real base rate
1028
+ (`(tp+fn)/total`), not the recall number alone.
1029
+
1030
  ---
1031
 
1032
+ ## 5. Applications
1033
 
1034
  `src/app.py` (Streamlit) has two views, selected by a radio at the top:
1035
 
 
1068
 
1069
  ---
1070
 
1071
+ ## 6. Testing (`src/test_build_graph.py`)
1072
 
1073
  Not a unit test suite in the pytest sense — a script with two independent
1074
  sections, both run from `main()`.
 
1092
  `feature_names`, but remain accessible as their own `Data` attributes
1093
  - target values never attach to a non-gauge node, and target coverage never
1094
  exceeds the real gauge count
1095
+ - `edge_attr` stays exactly the real numeric edge columns despite extra edge
1096
+ metadata (`toponym`, `cleabs`) sitting on the real edges table
1097
  - `physics_losses.py`'s `build_confluence_index`/`build_braid_index` produce
1098
  counts matching `is_confluence`/`is_rejoin_point` sums, with every index
1099
  within node bounds and every confluence having ≥ 2 upstream branches
 
1104
  Exits 0 on a clean pass across both sections, 1 otherwise — usable as a
1105
  pre-commit or CI gate if that's ever set up.
1106
 
1107
+ `identify_flood_events.py` and `physics_losses.py`'s own functions (§2.5,
1108
+ §4.7) double as an informal, model-independent validation layer too — real
1109
+ historical data checked directly against real physics and real event
1110
+ definitions, without needing a trained model in the loop at all.
1111
+
1112
  ---
1113
 
1114
+ ## 7. Known limitations and open questions
1115
 
1116
  - **`cumulative_catchment_area_km2` underestimates the largest catchments**
1117
  by up to ~25%, traced to the BD TOPO pull's original bounding box having an
1118
  insufficient southern margin. The bbox has been widened in
1119
  `download_bdtopo_hydro.py`; the full re-pull-and-rebuild chain needs
1120
+ re-running for this to actually resolve — and, in the meantime, this
1121
+ column is entirely absent from the real enriched node tables the model
1122
+ currently trains against (§3.6), which is why the model falls back to the
1123
+ gauge-only Hub'Eau value.
1124
  - **Climate's genuine time series (`build_climate_timeseries`) is untested
1125
  against real data** — discharge and groundwater's equivalents are; verify
1126
  climate's real output before relying on it.
1127
  - **Landcover and NDVI only cover the 27 real gauges**, not the full reach
1128
  graph — same scope `catchment_area_km2` had before its cumulative-BD-TOPO
1129
  extension.
1130
+ - **The model trains and evaluates against a 100-node subgraph**, not the
1131
+ full ~4,500-node-per-basin graph — a real, deliberate scope limit for
1132
+ tractable compute, not a claim the full graph wouldn't matter. A full-graph
1133
+ retrain is real, unstarted future work.
1134
+ - **Manning's learned roughness `n` is currently not trustworthy as a
1135
+ physical finding** — real evidence (§4.3) points to clamp saturation, not
1136
+ genuine convergence. Needs either a wider clamp range or a
1137
+ non-vanishing-at-the-boundary gradient before the learned value means
1138
+ anything physically.
1139
+ - **Real forecast precipitation coverage is genuinely partial** — five lead
1140
+ times, roughly 2.5 years — and using it correctly requires a real,
1141
+ documented train/val/test split shift (§3.13, §4.5); the project's
1142
+ original default split dates predate the entire forecast archive.
1143
+ - **Flood-detection precision is low in absolute terms** even where recall is
1144
+ real and meaningful (§4.7) — worth tuning the flag quantile and continuing
1145
+ to validate before treating this as deployment-ready.
1146
+ - **Real evapotranspiration is not wired into `water_balance_loss`** — passed
1147
+ as an explicit `0.0` placeholder; real ERA5 evaporation data exists but
1148
+ lives on a different grid than this graph's nodes, and building that
1149
+ mapping is real, unstarted work.
1150
  - **The karst losing-reach flag rests on naming evidence and a BDCavités
1151
  cross-check** (§3.7–3.8), not a fully confirmed BD TOPO classification.
1152
  - **The groundwater-well BDLISA aquifer-unit field is unused.** First place
 
1155
 
1156
  ---
1157
 
1158
+ ## 8. Running things
1159
 
1160
  Data acquisition (from repo root, in roughly dependency order):
1161
 
1162
  ```bash
1163
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_hubeau
1164
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_elevation
1165
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_era5_full # slow; download_era5_sample.py first if just testing
1166
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.extract_era5
1167
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_catchment
1168
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_bdtopo_hydro --check # verify typeNames before the real pull
1169
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_bdtopo_hydro
1170
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_bdcavites --check
1171
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_bdcavites
1172
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.download_bdcharm
1173
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.fetch_meteofrance_precipitation --check --department 27
1174
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.fetch_meteofrance_precipitation --data-root datasets
1175
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.fetch_previous_runs # real ECMWF forecast archive
1176
  ```
1177
 
1178
  Build and validate the reach graph:
1179
 
1180
  ```bash
1181
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.build_reach_graphs --data-root datasets
1182
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.enrich_reach_graph --data-root datasets # --skip-climate if that step hangs
1183
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.compute_cumulative_catchment --data-root datasets
1184
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.compute_edge_width --data-root datasets
1185
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.diagnose_confluences --data-root datasets --basin eure
1186
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.diagnose_confluences --data-root datasets --basin risle
1187
  ```
1188
 
1189
  Build genuine `[n_nodes, T]` dynamic tensors and verify the physics-loss wiring:
1190
 
1191
  ```bash
1192
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.build_dynamic_tensors --data-root datasets --basin risle
1193
+ python -m scripts.graph_building.build_dynamic_tensors --data-root datasets --basin eure
1194
  ```
1195
 
1196
  Landcover / NDVI, real gauges only (needs `rasterio`, and `geopandas` for NDVI's
1197
  tile lookup):
1198
 
1199
  ```bash
1200
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.fetch_landcover --check
1201
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.fetch_landcover
1202
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.fetch_worldcover_ndvi --check
1203
+ python -m scripts.data_acquisition.fetch_worldcover_ndvi
1204
+ ```
1205
+
1206
+ Real historical flood events (ground truth, needed before evaluation):
1207
+
1208
+ ```bash
1209
+ python -m scripts.evaluation.identify_flood_events --data-root datasets
1210
+ ```
1211
+
1212
+ Train the model — **with real forecast data, use the shifted split dates**
1213
+ (§3.13, §4.5) so training and validation actually overlap real forecast
1214
+ coverage:
1215
+
1216
+ ```bash
1217
+ python -m scripts.training.train_spatiotemporal_gnn --data-root datasets \
1218
+ --train-end 2025-06-30 --val-end 2025-12-31
1219
+ ```
1220
+
1221
+ Evaluate the trained model against real historical flood events:
1222
+
1223
+ ```bash
1224
+ python -m scripts.evaluation.evaluate_flood_detection --data-root datasets
1225
  ```
1226
 
1227
+ Validate the graph itself against whatever's actually in `datasets/`:
1228
 
1229
  ```bash
1230
  python -m src.test_build_graph --data-root datasets
datasets/c3s_seasonal/hindcast_month08.nc ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
 
 
 
 
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+ oid sha256:9c49bb3f1e6c982a0d8ccc40885f63b8354df868bb4bf25e5a4c5aac2294b644
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+ size 1638995
datasets/cavity_proximity_check.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ station_code,distance_to_nearest_cavity_km,n_cavities_within_20km
2
+ H420021011,0.06734330830433045,2287
3
+ H420021010,0.08011680750680154,2293
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+ H600021010,0.8089347801714617,406
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+ H403301101,4.8485620480579215,858
27
+ H402021010,6.098887227694296,104
28
+ H403021010,6.141950442395451,765
datasets/cavity_proximity_check_naturelle.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ station_code,distance_to_nearest_cavity_km,n_cavities_within_20km
2
+ H623022010,0.3230080907463569,1493
3
+ H431021010,0.32400268298867924,225
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+ H606000101,1.8604021674075912,1424
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+ H623021010,1.8642663958164236,1567
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+ H420021011,2.419255283585594,188
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+ H426021201,3.4018664278664312,212
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+ H426021010,3.4155339402279665,211
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+ H416021010,3.4260842668004514,85
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+ H403301101,4.8485620480579215,86
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+ H414000201,6.833629159522594,23
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+ H403021010,6.879985125697823,16
28
+ H402021010,13.02124359582901,7
datasets/climate_anomaly_models/cross_validation/cross_validation_summary.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ variable,regime,horizon_native,n_folds,n_folds_beat_climatology,mean_rmse_margin_pct,std_rmse_margin_pct,fraction_folds_beat,verdict
2
+ evap_mm,daily,1,4,4,15.433514989628518,5.348543414069798,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
3
+ evap_mm,daily,5,4,4,1.5941790604402408,0.8738870160044205,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
4
+ evap_mm,daily,10,4,4,0.6855695594151723,0.5058997897142183,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
5
+ evap_mm,daily,14,4,4,0.31703221488214517,0.10421165892974571,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
6
+ evap_mm,monthly,3,4,2,-9.142908958079303,33.73357889735841,0.5,UNSTABLE
7
+ evap_mm,monthly,6,4,2,-2.605919560987279,29.582925646143334,0.5,UNSTABLE
8
+ evap_mm,weekly,3,4,2,-0.4781177859291126,4.091387621523481,0.5,UNSTABLE
9
+ evap_mm,weekly,6,4,2,-1.252800527841585,5.013289959528252,0.5,UNSTABLE
10
+ evap_mm,weekly,9,4,2,-1.2027990617044706,5.424053622684331,0.5,UNSTABLE
11
+ evap_mm,weekly,13,4,2,-1.4548025160472695,5.947546001336505,0.5,UNSTABLE
12
+ precip_mm,daily,1,4,4,0.398346029372596,0.35931526061206814,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
13
+ precip_mm,daily,5,4,2,0.05693663929914346,0.14641059041695165,0.5,UNSTABLE
14
+ precip_mm,daily,10,4,1,-0.07197716314093104,0.08575379979797601,0.25,UNSTABLE
15
+ precip_mm,daily,14,4,2,-0.08587614053700632,0.11792945958011258,0.5,UNSTABLE
16
+ precip_mm,monthly,3,4,2,-2.3791358481673317,11.06489055412864,0.5,UNSTABLE
17
+ precip_mm,monthly,6,4,2,-0.9583540316061492,10.912475516103187,0.5,UNSTABLE
18
+ precip_mm,weekly,3,4,2,-0.015214069249200879,1.149273008516348,0.5,UNSTABLE
19
+ precip_mm,weekly,6,4,2,-0.04972394083088033,1.0399297273887897,0.5,UNSTABLE
20
+ precip_mm,weekly,9,4,2,0.051414901527331025,1.037358514987821,0.5,UNSTABLE
21
+ precip_mm,weekly,13,4,2,0.04422228789871496,1.0343175452259066,0.5,UNSTABLE
22
+ runoff_mm,daily,1,4,3,4.877954803864734,39.979028236007835,0.75,UNSTABLE
23
+ runoff_mm,daily,5,4,3,11.53760137241838,35.68889748590784,0.75,UNSTABLE
24
+ runoff_mm,daily,10,4,4,12.647406802587517,20.170513319198708,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
25
+ runoff_mm,daily,14,4,3,7.690957745195579,13.457090046067707,0.75,UNSTABLE
26
+ runoff_mm,monthly,3,4,2,-19.47792381951619,35.03362297433532,0.5,UNSTABLE
27
+ runoff_mm,monthly,6,4,1,-53.75021188161636,48.01535561591501,0.25,UNSTABLE
28
+ runoff_mm,weekly,3,4,2,-219.20442424909095,457.2589229773,0.5,UNSTABLE
29
+ runoff_mm,weekly,6,4,2,-128.77067123736416,259.1345908605477,0.5,UNSTABLE
30
+ runoff_mm,weekly,9,4,2,-48.45571601522676,96.01623745113712,0.5,UNSTABLE
31
+ runoff_mm,weekly,13,4,1,-5.3300287516180065,9.188865977661955,0.25,UNSTABLE
32
+ snow_mm,daily,1,4,1,-19.972510335125083,38.97547730423528,0.25,UNSTABLE
33
+ snow_mm,daily,5,4,1,-7.17907940104464,24.55281983704293,0.25,UNSTABLE
34
+ snow_mm,daily,10,4,1,-2.953434915675786,14.982349351868141,0.25,UNSTABLE
35
+ snow_mm,daily,14,4,1,0.7458644892012884,7.491445927922103,0.25,UNSTABLE
36
+ snow_mm,monthly,3,4,2,-4.265509211224067,21.69877156533628,0.5,UNSTABLE
37
+ snow_mm,monthly,6,4,0,-99.74973771226338,66.67228584800623,0.0,CONSISTENT LOSS
38
+ snow_mm,weekly,3,4,2,-7.151926922617358,20.09063564835978,0.5,UNSTABLE
39
+ snow_mm,weekly,6,4,2,-4.6320344756553045,13.423756666597912,0.5,UNSTABLE
40
+ snow_mm,weekly,9,4,1,-1.6645630009629744,6.414858145946501,0.25,UNSTABLE
41
+ snow_mm,weekly,13,4,1,-1.4416367620038266,8.265961451641886,0.25,UNSTABLE
42
+ solar_Wm2,daily,1,4,4,7.494190896684461,2.112615474319945,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
43
+ solar_Wm2,daily,5,4,3,0.6368114447161746,0.667452764839831,0.75,UNSTABLE
44
+ solar_Wm2,daily,10,4,2,0.12611177008512928,0.34470089507591656,0.5,UNSTABLE
45
+ solar_Wm2,daily,14,4,3,0.15097146474936807,0.1720920233122145,0.75,UNSTABLE
46
+ solar_Wm2,monthly,3,4,3,1.9645999393333369,5.8952762743345675,0.75,UNSTABLE
47
+ solar_Wm2,monthly,6,4,2,-2.2430165083916958,5.899020662126656,0.5,UNSTABLE
48
+ solar_Wm2,weekly,3,4,0,-1.1531262450252477,0.6458618480667215,0.0,CONSISTENT LOSS
49
+ solar_Wm2,weekly,6,4,0,-1.0188692244288324,0.5387379039757494,0.0,CONSISTENT LOSS
50
+ solar_Wm2,weekly,9,4,2,0.03659436540832812,0.9212770495827473,0.5,UNSTABLE
51
+ solar_Wm2,weekly,13,4,2,-0.23780402929158306,1.5433966577330025,0.5,UNSTABLE
52
+ temp_C,daily,1,4,4,30.022315857033007,3.881342677328426,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
53
+ temp_C,daily,5,4,4,4.3798662093635965,2.0394131024283917,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
54
+ temp_C,daily,10,4,4,0.8635724471007284,0.6019941605242723,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
55
+ temp_C,daily,14,4,2,0.1062136867173081,0.6007895705700086,0.5,UNSTABLE
56
+ temp_C,monthly,3,4,3,2.9646108671036138,3.178287043631982,0.75,UNSTABLE
57
+ temp_C,monthly,6,4,2,-17.783839448067383,48.79274270360168,0.5,UNSTABLE
58
+ temp_C,weekly,3,4,4,1.8297437524107794,1.2441291862764345,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
59
+ temp_C,weekly,6,4,4,2.1199368956334927,1.1740608784052555,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
60
+ temp_C,weekly,9,4,4,2.25291486752172,1.3097993338486495,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
61
+ temp_C,weekly,13,4,4,2.32855140914343,1.2820550187897695,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
62
+ wind_speed_ms,daily,1,4,4,8.110292330816359,3.0343494658345915,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
63
+ wind_speed_ms,daily,5,4,3,0.3347707536849176,0.5327603028429463,0.75,UNSTABLE
64
+ wind_speed_ms,daily,10,4,1,0.015021426922881866,0.06289696631058019,0.25,UNSTABLE
65
+ wind_speed_ms,daily,14,4,1,-0.04207062300455699,0.20427513206685075,0.25,UNSTABLE
66
+ wind_speed_ms,monthly,3,4,1,-8.183872269480815,15.064771776907126,0.25,UNSTABLE
67
+ wind_speed_ms,monthly,6,4,1,-1.6041295144038523,6.789908736004105,0.25,UNSTABLE
68
+ wind_speed_ms,weekly,3,4,1,0.2742306713673833,1.329372444317103,0.25,UNSTABLE
69
+ wind_speed_ms,weekly,6,4,2,0.006060444506114593,0.7274930140084717,0.5,UNSTABLE
70
+ wind_speed_ms,weekly,9,4,3,0.5271060954048611,3.0150369917061477,0.75,UNSTABLE
71
+ wind_speed_ms,weekly,13,4,2,0.2478600372184011,1.3342068832530227,0.5,UNSTABLE
72
+ wind_u_ms,daily,1,4,4,16.769026898019185,3.2088757865950726,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
73
+ wind_u_ms,daily,5,4,4,0.980008964943553,0.40556019208605765,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
74
+ wind_u_ms,daily,10,4,1,-0.03345921924049753,0.19852298388169823,0.25,UNSTABLE
75
+ wind_u_ms,daily,14,4,3,-0.04383528473376304,0.25837623408189836,0.75,UNSTABLE
76
+ wind_u_ms,monthly,3,4,1,-3.568035503830248,4.242051580248167,0.25,UNSTABLE
77
+ wind_u_ms,monthly,6,4,1,-1.4728956447857082,3.5434369207340533,0.25,UNSTABLE
78
+ wind_u_ms,weekly,3,4,2,0.012038768089962987,0.5975149620546968,0.5,UNSTABLE
79
+ wind_u_ms,weekly,6,4,2,-0.07086904111307483,0.8461159046113296,0.5,UNSTABLE
80
+ wind_u_ms,weekly,9,4,2,0.11986003388474414,0.7117612240800026,0.5,UNSTABLE
81
+ wind_u_ms,weekly,13,4,2,-0.07751618069339203,1.244023547366199,0.5,UNSTABLE
82
+ wind_v_ms,daily,1,4,4,13.69755565805852,1.9976696042728612,1.0,CONSISTENT WIN
83
+ wind_v_ms,daily,5,4,3,0.534129232788973,0.4873797436434326,0.75,UNSTABLE
84
+ wind_v_ms,daily,10,4,2,-0.02875817079336135,0.11595203795682225,0.5,UNSTABLE
85
+ wind_v_ms,daily,14,4,3,0.11651430428134665,0.4074932178939845,0.75,UNSTABLE
86
+ wind_v_ms,monthly,3,4,1,-1.1359041475356935,2.2695141308167246,0.25,UNSTABLE
87
+ wind_v_ms,monthly,6,4,1,-1.3578007824004086,2.5700897827163307,0.25,UNSTABLE
88
+ wind_v_ms,weekly,3,4,2,-0.24031923720682136,0.9738638117861981,0.5,UNSTABLE
89
+ wind_v_ms,weekly,6,4,1,-0.25925672289960094,0.4846777886552502,0.25,UNSTABLE
90
+ wind_v_ms,weekly,9,4,2,-0.21047109882084625,0.7352878874865387,0.5,UNSTABLE
91
+ wind_v_ms,weekly,13,4,2,-0.1689636176525115,0.6241016168050836,0.5,UNSTABLE
datasets/climate_anomaly_models/cross_validation/raw_fold_results.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,361 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ fold,variable,regime,horizon_native,model_rmse,climatology_only_rmse,model_beats_climatology,rmse_margin_pct
2
+ 1,wind_u_ms,daily,1,2.8739426136016846,3.3672165870666504,True,14.649309324491101
3
+ 1,wind_u_ms,daily,5,3.3327529430389404,3.3494937419891357,True,0.49980087260152917
4
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5
+ 1,wind_u_ms,daily,14,3.2852590084075928,3.2890868186950684,True,0.11637911975197583
6
+ 1,wind_u_ms,weekly,3,2.233687400817871,2.2404446601867676,True,0.3016034936713495
7
+ 1,wind_u_ms,weekly,6,2.1911985874176025,2.210965633392334,True,0.8940458266826348
8
+ 1,wind_u_ms,weekly,9,2.2114953994750977,2.2111427783966064,False,-0.01594745856922507
9
+ 1,wind_u_ms,weekly,13,2.1828994750976562,2.21201491355896,True,1.3162406041132533
10
+ 1,wind_u_ms,monthly,3,1.5748039484024048,1.6138828992843628,True,2.4214241875471028
11
+ 1,wind_u_ms,monthly,6,0.9909133315086365,0.931471049785614,False,-6.381549027927772
12
+ 1,wind_v_ms,daily,1,2.832612991333008,3.1754367351531982,True,10.796113177913808
13
+ 1,wind_v_ms,daily,5,3.1707751750946045,3.170428991317749,False,-0.010919146203983638
14
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15
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16
+ 1,wind_v_ms,weekly,3,1.7792274951934814,1.7929102182388306,True,0.763157179102343
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+ 1,wind_v_ms,weekly,6,1.8972629308700562,1.8864867687225342,False,-0.571229140123746
18
+ 1,wind_v_ms,weekly,9,1.880104899406433,1.885765552520752,True,0.3001779890799312
19
+ 1,wind_v_ms,weekly,13,1.8449993133544922,1.835805058479309,False,-0.5008295860563308
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+ 1,wind_v_ms,monthly,3,1.1433367729187012,1.094919204711914,False,-4.422022008420825
21
+ 1,wind_v_ms,monthly,6,1.0670667886734009,1.0154725313186646,False,-5.080812701820447
22
+ 1,temp_C,daily,1,2.8351054191589355,3.8317997455596924,True,26.01112773588262
23
+ 1,temp_C,daily,5,3.7103633880615234,3.830357551574707,True,3.1327144241104206
24
+ 1,temp_C,daily,10,3.814448356628418,3.8454227447509766,True,0.8054872033208522
25
+ 1,temp_C,daily,14,3.8655846118927,3.8470683097839355,False,-0.4813094184388056
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+ 1,temp_C,weekly,3,2.7701127529144287,2.8661770820617676,True,3.3516536625935043
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29
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30
+ 1,temp_C,monthly,3,2.2958106994628906,2.4492390155792236,True,6.264325986169568
31
+ 1,temp_C,monthly,6,1.212746024131775,1.4310722351074219,True,15.25612793118431
32
+ 1,precip_mm,daily,1,0.2669251263141632,0.26778000593185425,True,0.31924699333548945
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+ 1,precip_mm,monthly,6,0.05131503939628601,0.05966459959745407,True,13.994161123180222
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+ 1,evap_mm,daily,1,0.10997074097394943,0.13233686983585358,True,16.900905159421086
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+ 1,snow_mm,daily,1,0.003109490731731057,0.00312636187300086,True,0.5396413452806461
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+ 1,snow_mm,daily,5,0.002658030018210411,0.0030897397082298994,True,13.97236436679688
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80
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datasets/edge_widths.csv ADDED
The diff for this file is too large to render. See raw diff
 
datasets/eure_risle_stations_full.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ code_site,libelle_site,code_station,libelle_station,type_station,coordonnee_x_station,coordonnee_y_station,code_projection,longitude_station,latitude_station,influence_locale_station,commentaire_station,altitude_ref_alti_station,code_systeme_alti_site,code_commune_station,libelle_commune,code_departement,code_region,libelle_region,code_cours_eau,libelle_cours_eau,uri_cours_eau,descriptif_station,date_maj_station,date_ouverture_station,date_fermeture_station,commentaire_influence_locale_station,code_regime_station,qualification_donnees_station,code_finalite_station,type_contexte_loi_stat_station,type_loi_station,code_sandre_reseau_station,date_debut_ref_alti_station,date_activation_ref_alti_station,date_maj_ref_alti_station,libelle_departement,en_service,coordLatLon,already_in_roster
2
+ H4260210,L'Eure à Saint-Georges-Motel,H426021010,L'Eure à Saint-Georges-Motel,STD,580769.0,6855886.0,26,1.3769150684531133,48.79202930059512,,,69.92,3.0,27543,SAINT-GEORGES-MOTEL,27,28,NORMANDIE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,1999-11-26T00:00:00Z,,,1,16,2,1.0,2.0,"POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC065,RIC315",1999-11-26T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,EURE,True,"48.79202930059512,1.3769150684531133",True
3
+ H4260212,L'Eure à Saint-Georges-Motel [site virtuel],H426021201,L'Eure à Saint-Georges-Motel [site virtuel],FICTIVE,580753.7572121,6855893.1027166,26,1.3767056402577862,48.79209034910749,,,,,27543,SAINT-GEORGES-MOTEL,27,28,NORMANDIE,H4267701,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4267701,,2024-02-13T00:00:00Z,2021-09-01T00:00:00Z,,,1,12,2 3 7,,,POH047,,,,EURE,True,"48.79209034910749,1.3767056402577862",True
4
+ H4310210,L'Eure à Pacy-sur-Eure,H431021010,L'Eure à Pacy-sur-Eure - Station partenaire SEBV,STD,581370.0,6880459.0,26,1.37822474192181,49.01307446045349,,Syndicat mixte Eure Blaise Vesgre (SEBV),40.87,3.0,27448,PACY-SUR-EURE,27,28,NORMANDIE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,Station partenaire SEBV,2025-09-25T00:00:00Z,1999-12-22T00:00:00Z,,,1,16,2,1.0,2.0,"POH047,RIC315",1999-11-26T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,2025-06-20T00:00:00Z,EURE,True,"49.01307446045349,1.37822474192181",True
5
+ H4320210,L'Eure à Cailly-sur-Eure,H432021010,L'Eure à Cailly-sur-Eure,STD,569235.0,6891991.0,26,1.2088073037095033,49.11438206622232,1.0,,21.46,3.0,27124,CAILLY-SUR-EURE,27,28,NORMANDIE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,1968-01-01T00:00:00Z,,,1,20,1 2,1.0,2.0,"BSH004,BSH053,BSH104,BSH153,POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC016,RIC065,RIC265,RIC315",1968-01-01T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,EURE,True,"49.11438206622232,1.2088073037095033",True
6
+ H4380210,L'Eure à Louviers,H438021010,L'Eure à Louviers,STD,567244.3974367,6904232.7688029,26,1.1776808123006943,49.22400386751953,1.0,,10.75,3.0,27375,LOUVIERS,27,28,NORMANDIE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,1971-03-22T00:00:00Z,,,1,20,1 2 7,1.0,2.0,"BSH004,BSH053,BSH104,BSH153,POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC016,RIC065,RIC265,RIC315",1986-03-01T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,2020-02-04T00:00:00Z,EURE,True,"49.22400386751953,1.1776808123006943",True
7
+ H6030210,La Risle à Rugles [observateur],H603021010,La Risle à Rugles [observateur],STD,531904.0,6860441.0,26,0.7102394129364239,48.82209534358593,2.0,,,,27502,RUGLES,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6031001,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6031001,,2023-10-05T00:00:00Z,2006-08-01T00:00:00Z,2013-06-01T00:00:00Z,,1,16,,2.0,3.0,"POH010,POH047,POH903",,,,EURE,False,"48.82209534358593,0.7102394129364239",True
8
+ H6050210,La Risle à Bosc-Renoult-en-Ouche,H605021010,La Risle à Bosc-Renoult-en-Ouche,STD,534773.0,6874894.0,26,0.7436746842294717,48.95275929896315,,,138.27,3.0,27088,BOSC-RENOULT-EN-OUCHE,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2023-01-27T00:00:00Z,2001-07-04T00:00:00Z,2022-11-15T00:00:00Z,,1,16,2,1.0,2.0,"POH126,POH010,POH047,POH903",2001-07-04T00:00:00Z,2023-01-27T00:00:00Z,2023-01-27T00:00:00Z,EURE,False,"48.95275929896315,0.7436746842294717",True
9
+ H6050220,La Risle à Grosley-sur-Risle,H605022010,La Risle à Grosley-sur-Risle,STD,540227.0,6883351.0,26,0.8149204033339469,49.03015441769096,1.0,Altitude du 0 de l'échelle non confirmée par un géomètre expert.,10400.0,3.0,27300,GROSLEY-SUR-RISLE,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,1970-01-01T00:00:00Z,1988-01-01T00:00:00Z,,1,20,1 2,1.0,2.0,"POH126,POH010,POH047",1970-01-01T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,EURE,False,"49.03015441769096,0.8149204033339469",True
10
+ H6056411,La Risle à Ajou [amont bétoire],H605641101,La Risle à Ajou [amont bétoire],STD,538193.0,6878375.0,26,0.7890225683598991,48.98491873752821,2.0,,,,27007,AJOU,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2023-10-05T00:00:00Z,2012-08-22T00:00:00Z,2020-01-15T00:00:00Z,,1,16,0,,,"POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903",,,,EURE,False,"48.98491873752821,0.7890225683598991",True
11
+ H6056412,La Risle à Grosley-sur-Risle [aval bétoire],H605641201,La Risle à Grosley-sur-Risle [aval bétoire],STD,539177.0,6885262.0,26,0.799839825688955,49.04706877832192,2.0,,,,27300,GROSLEY-SUR-RISLE,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2023-10-05T00:00:00Z,2013-07-11T00:00:00Z,2020-01-15T00:00:00Z,,1,16,0,,,"POH010,POH126,POH047",,,,EURE,False,"49.047068778321915,0.799839825688955",True
12
+ H6056414,La Risle à Barquet,H605641401,La Risle à Barquet,STD,539761.0,6883805.0,26,0.808378297462809,49.03411899138815,0.0,,,,27040,BARQUET,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,2020-10-01T00:00:00Z,,,1,16,1 2 7,,,"POH010,POH047,POH126,RIC016,RIC065,RIC165,RIC315",,,,EURE,True,"49.03411899138815,0.808378297462809",True
13
+ H6060001,La Risle à Beaumontel,H606000101,La Risle à Beaumontel,STD,484772.3,2456019.1,5,0.7598349157788882,49.09174604142581,,,,,27050,BEAUMONTEL,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2023-10-05T00:00:00Z,1972-03-01T00:00:00Z,1983-01-01T00:00:00Z,,1,16,7,,,POH047,,,,EURE,False,"49.09174604142581,0.7598349157788882",True
14
+ H6200210,La Risle à Brionne,H620021010,La Risle à Brionne,STD,533400.0,6900649.0,26,0.714759598241397,49.1838827045184,,,5485.0,3.0,27116,BRIONNE,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,2002-01-29T00:00:00Z,,,1,16,2,1.0,2.0,"POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC065,RIC315",2002-01-29T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,EURE,True,"49.1838827045184,0.714759598241397",True
15
+ H6230210,La Risle à Pont-Authou,H623021010,La Risle à Pont-Authou,STD,532138.0,6907155.0,26,0.694854112706974,49.2420181235553,1.0,Station arrêtée du 01/12/1991 au 08/04/1999.,4102.0,3.0,27468,PONT-AUTHOU,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6227501,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6227501,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,1967-05-01T00:00:00Z,,,1,20,1 2,1.0,2.0,"BSH004,BSH053,BSH104,BSH153,POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC016,RIC065,RIC265,RIC315",1967-05-01T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,EURE,True,"49.2420181235553,0.694854112706974",True
16
+ H6230220,La Risle à Corneville-sur-Risle [Les Ruelles],H623022010,La Risle à Corneville-sur-Risle [Les Ruelles],STD,524179.0,6918393.0,26,0.5808983200584252,49.34085604126936,2.0,,14.64,3.0,27174,CORNEVILLE-SUR-RISLE,27,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2023-10-05T00:00:00Z,2001-07-04T00:00:00Z,2017-09-13T00:00:00Z,,1,16,2,1.0,2.0,"POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903",2001-07-04T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,2023-10-05T00:00:00Z,EURE,False,"49.34085604126936,0.5808983200584252",True
17
+ H4020210,L'Eure à Chuisnes [observateur],H402021010,L'Eure à Chuisnes [observateur] - observateur,STD,567277.0,6817949.0,26,1.205047075362921,48.44823807964378,2.0,,,,28099,CHUISNES,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,observateur,2025-07-11T00:00:00Z,2006-08-01T00:00:00Z,2013-07-01T00:00:00Z,,1,16,,2.0,3.0,"POH010,POH047,POH903",,,,EURE-ET-LOIR,False,"48.44823807964378,1.205047075362921",True
18
+ H4030210,L'Eure à Saint-Luperce,H403021010,L'Eure à Saint-Luperce,STD,573648.0,6817910.0,26,1.2911926548135038,48.4491588174238,1.0,,153.9,3.0,28350,SAINT-LUPERCE,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,1964-12-17T00:00:00Z,,,1,20,1 2,1.0,2.0,"BSH004,BSH051,BSH053,BSH104,BSH151,POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC016,RIC065,RIC265,RIC315",2006-12-14T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,EURE-ET-LOIR,True,"48.4491588174238,1.2911926548135038",True
19
+ H4033011,L'Eure à Ver-lès-Chartres,H403301101,L'Eure à Ver-lès-Chartres - Loché,STD,587267.0,6810648.0,26,1.4772237751209467,48.38634693666215,1.0,"Station reprise de manière formelle par la DREAL Centre (SEMA) en 2000. Elle a été exploitée par le Service de la Navigation de la Seine (ex. Circonscription Electrique Nord et Paris) jusqu'en décembre 1985. Débits vraisemblablement approximatifs, surtout peut-être en crue : à vérifier.",,,28403,VER-LES-CHARTRES,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,Loché,2020-06-26T00:00:00Z,1969-01-01T00:00:00Z,1986-01-02T00:00:00Z,,1,12,1 2,1.0,2.0,,,,,EURE-ET-LOIR,False,"48.38634693666215,1.4772237751209467",True
20
+ H4040210,L'Eure à Chartres,H404021010,L'Eure à Chartres,DEB,588995.0,6816797.0,26,1.4989809032314128,48.44195400344526,2.0,,12459.0,3.0,28085,CHARTRES,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,2010-05-05T00:00:00Z,2017-12-31T00:00:00Z,,1,16,2,1.0,0.0,"POH126,POH010,POH047,POH903",2010-05-05T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,EURE-ET-LOIR,False,"48.44195400344526,1.4989809032314128",True
21
+ H4040211,L'Eure à Lèves,H404021101,L'Eure à Lèves,STD,587926.0,6819632.0,26,1.4837933224994202,48.46726995012251,0.0,,,,28209,LEVES,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,2017-07-20T00:00:00Z,,,1,16,1 2 7,,,"POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC065,RIC165,RIC315",,,,EURE-ET-LOIR,True,"48.46726995012251,1.4837933224994202",True
22
+ H4140002,Le bras de l'Eure à Lormaye [SEBV],H414000201,Le bras de l'Eure à Lormaye [SEBV],STD,592634.4397549,6839392.7393497,26,1.5425434758151677,48.64579380760316,,,92.35,3.0,28213,LORMAYE,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H41-4301,Bras de l'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H41-4301,,2026-04-07T00:00:00Z,2025-07-01T00:00:00Z,,,1,16,2 3,,,POH047,2025-07-01T00:00:00Z,2026-04-07T00:00:00Z,2026-04-07T00:00:00Z,EURE-ET-LOIR,True,"48.64579380760316,1.5425434758151675",True
23
+ H4160210,L'Eure à Charpont,H416021010,L'Eure à Charpont,STD,585363.0,6845654.0,26,1.4421839413328292,48.70085268423738,1.0,Altitude du 0 d'échelle non confirmée par un géomètre expert.,8171.0,3.0,28082,CHARPONT,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,1984-10-09T00:00:00Z,,,1,20,1 2,1.0,2.0,"POH126,RIC016,POH010,BSH004,BSH051,BSH053,RIC065,RIC315,POH047,POH903,BSH104,BSH151,BSH153",1984-10-09T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,2025-07-15T00:00:00Z,EURE-ET-LOIR,True,"48.70085268423738,1.4421839413328292",True
24
+ H4200210,L'Eure à Montreuil,H420021010,L'Eure à Montreuil - observateur,STD,580935.0,6854187.0,26,1.3796487223244014,48.77678274043829,2.0,,,,28267,MONTREUIL,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,observateur,2024-04-04T00:00:00Z,2006-08-01T00:00:00Z,2011-11-01T00:00:00Z,,1,16,,2.0,3.0,"POH010,POH047,POH903",,,,EURE-ET-LOIR,False,"48.77678274043829,1.3796487223244014",True
25
+ H4200210,L'Eure à Montreuil,H420021011,L'Eure à Montreuil - IJINUS,STD,580952.6708716,6854179.4837869,26,1.3798912354796424,48.77671841583632,,"La première mesure réelle commence en janvier 2021. Cependant, une chronique antérieure a été reconstituée (QMJ) grâce aux deux stations de Saint-Georges-Motel (Eure) et de Muzy (Avre). Cette chronique peut-être considérée fiable. Le 0 de l'échelle n'a pas été levé par un géomètre expert, la précision n'est pas connue.",71.08,3.0,28267,MONTREUIL,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,IJINUS,2025-07-18T00:00:00Z,2000-01-01T00:00:00Z,2024-06-13T00:00:00Z,,1,16,2 7,,,"POH126,POH010,POH047",2021-01-01T00:00:00Z,2025-07-18T00:00:00Z,2025-07-18T00:00:00Z,EURE-ET-LOIR,False,"48.776718415836314,1.3798912354796424",True
26
+ H4200210,L'Eure à Montreuil,H420021012,L'Eure à Montreuil - LNS,STD,580914.8962014,6854220.866527,26,1.3793657492806526,48.77708355621209,2.0,,71.5,3.0,28267,MONTREUIL,28,24,CENTRE-VAL DE LOIRE,H4--0200,L'Eure,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H4--0200,LNS,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,2023-08-04T00:00:00Z,,,1,20,2 7,,,"POH010,POH047,POH126,RIC016,RIC065,RIC165,RIC315",2020-01-01T00:00:00Z,2025-07-18T00:00:00Z,2025-07-18T00:00:00Z,EURE-ET-LOIR,True,"48.77708355621209,1.3793657492806526",True
27
+ H6000210,La Risle à Échauffour et à Sainte-Gauburge-Sainte-Colombe [observateur],H600021010,La Risle à Échauffour [observateur],STD,511031.0,6849508.0,26,0.4309462853451878,48.71803653764536,2.0,,,,61150,ECHAUFFOUR,61,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2023-10-05T00:00:00Z,2006-08-01T00:00:00Z,2013-05-01T00:00:00Z,,1,16,,2.0,3.0,"POH010,POH047,POH903",,,,ORNE,False,"48.71803653764536,0.43094628534518786",True
28
+ H6020210,La Risle à Rai,H602021010,La Risle à Rai,STD,522210.514122,6852566.3515797,26,0.5815619502671305,48.7487052183159,1.0,,205.32,3.0,61342,RAI,61,28,NORMANDIE,H6--0200,La Risle,http://id.eaufrance.fr/CEA/H6--0200,,2025-10-20T00:00:00Z,1965-09-01T00:00:00Z,,,1,20,1 2,1.0,2.0,"BSH004,BSH053,BSH104,BSH153,POH010,POH047,POH126,POH903,RIC016,RIC065,RIC115,RIC315",1965-09-01T00:00:00Z,2013-11-18T00:00:00Z,2023-12-04T00:00:00Z,ORNE,True,"48.7487052183159,0.5815619502671305",True
datasets/flood_detection_confusion_matrices.png ADDED
datasets/flood_detection_evaluation.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ horizon_days,tp,fp,fn,tn,precision,recall
2
+ 1,38,43,0,1029,0.4691358024691358,1.0
3
+ 2,37,53,1,1019,0.4111111111111111,0.9736842105263158
4
+ 3,37,69,1,1003,0.3490566037735849,0.9736842105263158
5
+ 4,38,70,0,1002,0.35185185185185186,1.0
6
+ 5,38,106,0,966,0.2638888888888889,1.0
7
+ 10,35,188,3,884,0.15695067264573992,0.9210526315789473
8
+ 30,12,837,26,235,0.014134275618374558,0.3157894736842105
9
+ 60,0,750,0,360,0.0,
10
+ 90,0,644,0,466,0.0,
11
+ 180,0,667,0,443,0.0,
datasets/flood_detection_precision_recall.png ADDED
datasets/flood_events_discharge.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ start_date,end_date,duration_days,peak_value,peak_date,station_code,threshold,threshold_percentile
2
+ 2018-01-02,2018-01-09,8,16351.0,2018-01-07,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
3
+ 2018-01-20,2018-01-28,9,17311.0,2018-01-23,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
4
+ 2018-02-12,2018-02-18,7,17907.0,2018-02-14,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
5
+ 2018-03-11,2018-03-18,8,28880.0,2018-03-13,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
6
+ 2018-06-12,2018-06-12,1,13497.0,2018-06-12,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
7
+ 2018-06-15,2018-06-15,1,12810.0,2018-06-15,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
8
+ 2019-02-12,2019-02-14,3,15910.0,2019-02-13,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
9
+ 2019-12-16,2019-12-16,1,11126.0,2019-12-16,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
10
+ 2019-12-22,2019-12-25,4,14173.0,2019-12-24,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
11
+ 2020-02-03,2020-02-07,5,18330.0,2020-02-05,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
12
+ 2020-03-01,2020-03-10,10,24552.0,2020-03-05,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
13
+ 2020-12-27,2020-12-27,1,13241.0,2020-12-27,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
14
+ 2020-12-29,2021-01-01,4,15910.0,2020-12-31,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
15
+ 2021-01-31,2021-02-07,8,16887.0,2021-02-03,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
16
+ 2022-01-07,2022-01-07,1,11849.0,2022-01-07,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
17
+ 2022-01-11,2022-01-12,2,13248.0,2022-01-12,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
18
+ 2022-04-11,2022-04-12,2,12363.0,2022-04-11,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
19
+ 2023-12-12,2023-12-14,3,13508.0,2023-12-13,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
20
+ 2024-01-05,2024-01-07,3,17816.0,2024-01-06,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
21
+ 2024-01-19,2024-01-22,4,20477.0,2024-01-20,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
22
+ 2024-02-13,2024-02-14,2,11946.0,2024-02-13,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
23
+ 2024-02-24,2024-03-06,12,23276.0,2024-02-29,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
24
+ 2024-04-07,2024-04-07,1,11427.0,2024-04-07,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
25
+ 2024-05-04,2024-05-05,2,13017.0,2024-05-05,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
26
+ 2024-10-09,2024-10-14,6,28066.0,2024-10-12,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
27
+ 2024-11-26,2024-11-28,3,12643.0,2024-11-27,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
28
+ 2024-12-11,2024-12-11,1,12249.0,2024-12-11,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
29
+ 2025-01-05,2025-01-13,9,26842.0,2025-01-11,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
30
+ 2025-01-26,2025-02-04,10,31386.0,2025-01-28,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
31
+ 2025-02-10,2025-02-11,2,11936.0,2025-02-10,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
32
+ 2025-02-27,2025-03-01,3,13515.0,2025-02-28,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
33
+ 2026-02-07,2026-02-09,3,12080.0,2026-02-08,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
34
+ 2026-02-13,2026-02-24,12,28903.0,2026-02-21,H404021101,11109.799999999992,95.0
35
+ 2021-02-01,2021-02-08,8,33221.0,2021-02-04,H420021011,24332.75,95.0
36
+ 2022-01-09,2022-01-12,4,28190.0,2022-01-10,H420021011,24332.75,95.0
37
+ 2022-04-09,2022-04-10,2,24535.0,2022-04-10,H420021011,24332.75,95.0
38
+ 2023-12-10,2023-12-11,2,27126.0,2023-12-11,H420021011,24332.75,95.0
39
+ 2023-12-13,2023-12-14,2,24956.0,2023-12-14,H420021011,24332.75,95.0
40
+ 2024-01-18,2024-01-22,5,36664.0,2024-01-19,H420021011,24332.75,95.0
41
+ 2024-02-23,2024-03-07,14,39148.0,2024-02-27,H420021011,24332.75,95.0
42
+ 2024-01-19,2024-01-20,2,34978.0,2024-01-19,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
43
+ 2024-02-24,2024-02-24,1,29098.0,2024-02-24,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
44
+ 2024-02-26,2024-03-06,10,38152.0,2024-02-27,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
45
+ 2024-10-10,2024-10-15,6,45610.0,2024-10-14,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
46
+ 2024-10-20,2024-10-20,1,29595.0,2024-10-20,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
47
+ 2025-01-06,2025-01-13,8,44782.0,2025-01-10,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
48
+ 2025-01-26,2025-02-04,8,47715.0,2025-01-31,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
49
+ 2026-02-13,2026-02-24,12,46714.0,2026-02-20,H420021012,28601.199999999957,95.0
50
+ 2013-01-28,2013-01-28,1,10879.0,2013-01-28,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
51
+ 2013-01-30,2013-01-31,2,9878.0,2013-01-30,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
52
+ 2013-02-02,2013-02-02,1,8542.0,2013-02-02,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
53
+ 2013-02-06,2013-02-07,2,9347.0,2013-02-07,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
54
+ 2013-12-25,2013-12-25,1,11450.0,2013-12-25,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
55
+ 2014-01-03,2014-01-03,1,10032.0,2014-01-03,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
56
+ 2014-01-28,2014-02-01,5,12797.0,2014-01-30,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
57
+ 2014-02-06,2014-02-10,4,12976.0,2014-02-08,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
58
+ 2014-02-13,2014-02-16,3,13992.0,2014-02-15,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
59
+ 2014-03-01,2014-03-02,2,11683.0,2014-03-01,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
60
+ 2014-05-29,2014-05-29,1,9119.0,2014-05-29,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
61
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62
+ 2014-12-13,2014-12-13,1,9864.0,2014-12-13,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
63
+ 2014-12-18,2014-12-20,2,12424.0,2014-12-18,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
64
+ 2015-01-16,2015-01-16,1,11899.0,2015-01-16,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
65
+ 2015-01-20,2015-01-20,1,8937.0,2015-01-20,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
66
+ 2015-01-30,2015-02-02,4,13134.0,2015-01-31,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
67
+ 2015-02-21,2015-02-22,2,10055.0,2015-02-21,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
68
+ 2015-02-24,2015-02-28,5,10719.0,2015-02-27,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
69
+ 2015-03-03,2015-03-03,1,8353.0,2015-03-03,H605641101,8347.999999999998,95.0
70
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71
+ 2013-12-25,2013-12-28,4,12007.0,2013-12-26,H605641201,6639.9000000000015,95.0
72
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73
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74
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75
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76
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77
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78
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79
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80
+ 2014-12-18,2014-12-21,4,11709.0,2014-12-19,H605641201,6639.9000000000015,95.0
81
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82
+ 2015-01-20,2015-01-20,1,8459.0,2015-01-20,H605641201,6639.9000000000015,95.0
83
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84
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85
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86
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87
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88
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89
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90
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91
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92
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93
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94
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95
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96
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97
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98
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99
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100
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101
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102
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103
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104
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105
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106
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107
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108
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109
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110
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111
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112
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113
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114
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115
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116
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117
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118
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119
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120
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121
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123
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124
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125
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126
+ 2026-02-12,2026-02-22,11,15240.0,2026-02-20,H605641401,6781.299999999995,95.0
datasets/flood_events_waterlevel.csv ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,343 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ start_date,end_date,duration_days,peak_value,peak_date,station_code,threshold,threshold_percentile
2
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3
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4
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5
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6
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7
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8
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9
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10
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11
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12
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13
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14
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15
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16
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17
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18
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19
+ 2016-06-15,2016-06-18,4,732.0,2016-06-18,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
20
+ 2016-07-12,2016-07-12,1,953.0,2016-07-12,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
21
+ 2017-03-03,2017-03-03,1,664.0,2017-03-03,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
22
+ 2017-05-18,2017-05-18,1,735.0,2017-05-18,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
23
+ 2017-06-02,2017-06-02,1,819.0,2017-06-02,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
24
+ 2017-06-09,2017-06-09,1,741.0,2017-06-09,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
25
+ 2017-07-10,2017-07-10,1,757.0,2017-07-10,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
26
+ 2017-09-08,2017-09-08,1,776.0,2017-09-08,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
27
+ 2017-09-13,2017-09-14,2,721.0,2017-09-13,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
28
+ 2017-12-11,2017-12-11,1,699.0,2017-12-11,H404021010,646.0999999999999,95.0
29
+ 2018-01-01,2018-01-01,1,977.0,2018-01-01,H404021101,864.0,95.0
30
+ 2018-01-03,2018-01-09,7,1080.0,2018-01-07,H404021101,864.0,95.0
31
+ 2018-01-18,2018-01-18,1,908.0,2018-01-18,H404021101,864.0,95.0
32
+ 2018-01-20,2018-01-26,7,1106.0,2018-01-23,H404021101,864.0,95.0
33
+ 2018-02-12,2018-02-15,4,1159.0,2018-02-14,H404021101,864.0,95.0
34
+ 2018-02-17,2018-02-18,2,874.0,2018-02-17,H404021101,864.0,95.0
35
+ 2018-03-11,2018-03-18,8,1632.0,2018-03-13,H404021101,864.0,95.0
36
+ 2018-06-11,2018-06-12,2,1808.0,2018-06-11,H404021101,864.0,95.0
37
+ 2018-06-15,2018-06-16,2,920.0,2018-06-15,H404021101,864.0,95.0
38
+ 2019-02-12,2019-02-14,3,1058.0,2019-02-13,H404021101,864.0,95.0
39
+ 2019-05-19,2019-05-19,1,1043.0,2019-05-19,H404021101,864.0,95.0
40
+ 2019-12-22,2019-12-25,4,977.0,2019-12-24,H404021101,864.0,95.0
41
+ 2020-02-03,2020-02-07,5,1157.0,2020-02-05,H404021101,864.0,95.0
42
+ 2020-03-01,2020-03-10,10,1486.0,2020-03-05,H404021101,864.0,95.0
43
+ 2020-12-23,2020-12-23,1,885.0,2020-12-23,H404021101,864.0,95.0
44
+ 2020-12-27,2020-12-28,2,1127.0,2020-12-27,H404021101,864.0,95.0
45
+ 2020-12-30,2021-01-01,3,1042.0,2020-12-31,H404021101,864.0,95.0
46
+ 2021-01-31,2021-02-07,8,1200.0,2021-02-03,H404021101,864.0,95.0
47
+ 2021-06-19,2021-06-19,1,1212.0,2021-06-19,H404021101,864.0,95.0
48
+ 2022-01-07,2022-01-07,1,867.0,2022-01-07,H404021101,864.0,95.0
49
+ 2022-01-11,2022-01-12,2,929.0,2022-01-12,H404021101,864.0,95.0
50
+ 2022-04-08,2022-04-08,1,936.0,2022-04-08,H404021101,864.0,95.0
51
+ 2022-04-11,2022-04-12,2,922.0,2022-04-12,H404021101,864.0,95.0
52
+ 2022-06-04,2022-06-04,1,919.0,2022-06-04,H404021101,864.0,95.0
53
+ 2022-06-22,2022-06-22,1,949.0,2022-06-22,H404021101,864.0,95.0
54
+ 2023-06-18,2023-06-18,1,879.0,2023-06-18,H404021101,864.0,95.0
55
+ 2023-09-17,2023-09-17,1,901.0,2023-09-17,H404021101,864.0,95.0
56
+ 2023-12-09,2023-12-09,1,1013.0,2023-12-09,H404021101,864.0,95.0
57
+ 2023-12-12,2023-12-14,3,930.0,2023-12-13,H404021101,864.0,95.0
58
+ 2024-01-05,2024-01-07,3,1134.0,2024-01-06,H404021101,864.0,95.0
59
+ 2024-01-18,2024-01-22,5,1340.0,2024-01-20,H404021101,864.0,95.0
60
+ 2024-02-13,2024-02-14,2,873.0,2024-02-13,H404021101,864.0,95.0
61
+ 2024-02-24,2024-03-06,12,1377.0,2024-02-29,H404021101,864.0,95.0
62
+ 2024-04-07,2024-04-07,1,904.0,2024-04-07,H404021101,864.0,95.0
63
+ 2024-05-05,2024-05-06,2,943.0,2024-05-05,H404021101,864.0,95.0
64
+ 2024-05-12,2024-05-12,1,864.0,2024-05-12,H404021101,864.0,95.0
65
+ 2024-06-21,2024-06-21,1,989.0,2024-06-21,H404021101,864.0,95.0
66
+ 2024-09-26,2024-09-26,1,901.0,2024-09-26,H404021101,864.0,95.0
67
+ 2024-10-09,2024-10-14,6,1621.0,2024-10-12,H404021101,864.0,95.0
68
+ 2024-11-25,2024-11-25,1,879.0,2024-11-25,H404021101,864.0,95.0
69
+ 2024-11-27,2024-11-28,2,947.0,2024-11-27,H404021101,864.0,95.0
70
+ 2024-12-11,2024-12-11,1,882.0,2024-12-11,H404021101,864.0,95.0
71
+ 2025-01-04,2025-01-13,10,1553.0,2025-01-09,H404021101,864.0,95.0
72
+ 2025-01-26,2025-02-04,10,1751.0,2025-01-28,H404021101,864.0,95.0
73
+ 2025-02-10,2025-02-10,1,924.0,2025-02-10,H404021101,864.0,95.0
74
+ 2025-02-25,2025-03-01,5,920.0,2025-02-28,H404021101,864.0,95.0
75
+ 2025-06-13,2025-06-13,1,1033.0,2025-06-13,H404021101,864.0,95.0
76
+ 2025-08-20,2025-08-20,1,1513.0,2025-08-20,H404021101,864.0,95.0
77
+ 2026-02-05,2026-02-05,1,870.0,2026-02-05,H404021101,864.0,95.0
78
+ 2026-02-08,2026-02-08,1,867.0,2026-02-08,H404021101,864.0,95.0
79
+ 2026-02-11,2026-02-11,1,865.0,2026-02-11,H404021101,864.0,95.0
80
+ 2026-02-13,2026-02-24,12,1631.0,2026-02-21,H404021101,864.0,95.0
81
+ 2021-01-22,2021-01-25,4,509.0,2021-01-22,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
82
+ 2021-01-30,2021-02-09,11,809.0,2021-02-04,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
83
+ 2022-01-04,2022-01-05,2,560.0,2022-01-04,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
84
+ 2022-01-08,2022-01-13,6,685.0,2022-01-09,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
85
+ 2022-04-09,2022-04-12,4,581.0,2022-04-09,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
86
+ 2023-12-10,2023-12-15,6,724.0,2023-12-10,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
87
+ 2024-01-04,2024-01-08,5,523.0,2024-01-07,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
88
+ 2024-01-18,2024-01-23,6,905.0,2024-01-19,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
89
+ 2024-02-23,2024-03-07,14,956.0,2024-02-27,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
90
+ 2024-04-04,2024-04-06,3,500.0,2024-04-05,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
91
+ 2024-04-08,2024-04-08,1,471.0,2024-04-08,H420021011,449.8999999999992,95.0
92
+ 2024-01-18,2024-01-20,3,1277.0,2024-01-19,H420021012,1103.2499999999995,95.0
93
+ 2024-02-26,2024-03-06,10,1341.0,2024-02-27,H420021012,1103.2499999999995,95.0
94
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95
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96
+ 2025-01-05,2025-01-14,10,1505.0,2025-01-09,H420021012,1103.2499999999995,95.0
97
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98
+ 2026-02-13,2026-02-24,12,1528.0,2026-02-20,H420021012,1103.2499999999995,95.0
99
+ 2026-06-26,2026-06-26,1,2875.0,2026-06-26,H420021012,1103.2499999999995,95.0
100
+ 2013-01-01,2013-01-01,1,882.0,2013-01-01,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
101
+ 2013-01-28,2013-01-28,1,943.0,2013-01-28,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
102
+ 2013-02-11,2013-02-12,2,959.0,2013-02-12,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
103
+ 2013-03-19,2013-03-21,3,950.0,2013-03-19,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
104
+ 2013-04-10,2013-04-11,2,906.0,2013-04-10,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
105
+ 2013-12-25,2013-12-26,2,1001.0,2013-12-26,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
106
+ 2013-12-28,2013-12-28,1,873.0,2013-12-28,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
107
+ 2014-01-30,2014-02-03,5,957.0,2014-02-02,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
108
+ 2014-02-07,2014-02-10,4,954.0,2014-02-09,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
109
+ 2014-02-13,2014-02-15,3,952.0,2014-02-14,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
110
+ 2014-03-01,2014-03-02,2,941.0,2014-03-01,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
111
+ 2014-05-29,2014-05-29,1,905.0,2014-05-29,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
112
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113
+ 2014-10-17,2014-10-18,2,1053.0,2014-10-18,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
114
+ 2014-12-13,2014-12-15,3,1123.0,2014-12-14,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
115
+ 2014-12-18,2014-12-20,3,1097.0,2014-12-19,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
116
+ 2015-01-16,2015-01-16,1,1052.0,2015-01-16,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
117
+ 2015-01-30,2015-02-02,4,1104.0,2015-01-31,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
118
+ 2015-02-21,2015-02-22,2,1059.0,2015-02-21,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
119
+ 2015-02-27,2015-02-28,2,974.0,2015-02-27,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
120
+ 2015-03-30,2015-03-31,2,926.0,2015-03-30,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
121
+ 2016-02-09,2016-02-11,3,1085.0,2016-02-11,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
122
+ 2016-02-13,2016-02-15,3,1057.0,2016-02-14,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
123
+ 2016-03-10,2016-03-10,1,887.0,2016-03-10,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
124
+ 2016-03-29,2016-03-29,1,935.0,2016-03-29,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
125
+ 2016-04-11,2016-04-11,1,876.0,2016-04-11,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
126
+ 2016-06-01,2016-06-01,1,869.0,2016-06-01,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
127
+ 2017-03-07,2017-03-08,2,989.0,2017-03-07,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
128
+ 2017-12-16,2017-12-16,1,871.0,2017-12-16,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
129
+ 2017-12-27,2017-12-28,2,993.0,2017-12-28,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
130
+ 2017-12-30,2018-01-06,8,1079.0,2018-01-05,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
131
+ 2018-01-16,2018-01-25,10,1096.0,2018-01-21,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
132
+ 2018-02-01,2018-02-01,1,1028.0,2018-02-01,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
133
+ 2018-02-11,2018-02-12,2,1009.0,2018-02-12,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
134
+ 2018-02-15,2018-02-16,2,992.0,2018-02-15,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
135
+ 2018-03-09,2018-03-09,1,940.0,2018-03-09,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
136
+ 2018-03-11,2018-03-12,2,1063.0,2018-03-11,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
137
+ 2018-03-31,2018-03-31,1,1035.0,2018-03-31,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
138
+ 2018-06-04,2018-06-06,3,1085.0,2018-06-05,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
139
+ 2018-06-11,2018-06-14,4,1315.0,2018-06-12,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
140
+ 2019-02-09,2019-02-12,4,942.0,2019-02-10,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
141
+ 2019-11-28,2019-11-28,1,1015.0,2019-11-28,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
142
+ 2019-12-13,2019-12-14,2,919.0,2019-12-13,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
143
+ 2019-12-20,2019-12-23,4,1026.0,2019-12-21,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
144
+ 2020-01-28,2020-01-29,2,954.0,2020-01-28,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
145
+ 2020-02-01,2020-02-05,5,1071.0,2020-02-02,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
146
+ 2020-02-10,2020-02-14,5,1042.0,2020-02-11,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
147
+ 2020-02-17,2020-02-20,4,987.0,2020-02-17,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
148
+ 2020-02-25,2020-02-28,4,995.0,2020-02-28,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
149
+ 2020-03-01,2020-03-11,11,1118.0,2020-03-07,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
150
+ 2020-03-13,2020-03-13,1,909.0,2020-03-13,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
151
+ 2020-12-23,2020-12-25,3,1075.0,2020-12-24,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
152
+ 2020-12-27,2020-12-30,4,1105.0,2020-12-28,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
153
+ 2021-01-22,2021-01-22,1,892.0,2021-01-22,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
154
+ 2021-01-29,2021-02-06,9,1116.0,2021-02-04,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
155
+ 2021-06-22,2021-06-24,3,1021.0,2021-06-23,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
156
+ 2021-07-13,2021-07-14,2,947.0,2021-07-14,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
157
+ 2021-10-04,2021-10-04,1,868.0,2021-10-04,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
158
+ 2021-12-05,2021-12-06,2,1014.0,2021-12-06,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
159
+ 2021-12-10,2021-12-11,2,1071.0,2021-12-11,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
160
+ 2021-12-28,2021-12-31,4,1058.0,2021-12-30,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
161
+ 2022-01-04,2022-01-06,3,1103.0,2022-01-05,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
162
+ 2022-01-08,2022-01-11,4,1105.0,2022-01-10,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
163
+ 2022-04-08,2022-04-11,4,1172.0,2022-04-10,H605021010,867.8499999999999,95.0
164
+ 2013-01-01,2013-01-02,2,782.0,2013-01-01,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
165
+ 2013-01-12,2013-01-12,1,712.0,2013-01-12,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
166
+ 2013-01-27,2013-01-31,5,923.0,2013-01-28,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
167
+ 2013-02-02,2013-02-02,1,778.0,2013-02-02,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
168
+ 2013-02-06,2013-02-07,2,801.0,2013-02-07,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
169
+ 2013-02-10,2013-02-13,4,1070.0,2013-02-12,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
170
+ 2013-03-16,2013-03-22,7,1130.0,2013-03-20,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
171
+ 2013-04-10,2013-04-12,3,790.0,2013-04-10,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
172
+ 2013-12-25,2013-12-30,6,1330.0,2013-12-29,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
173
+ 2014-01-02,2014-01-03,2,777.0,2014-01-03,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
174
+ 2014-01-28,2014-02-03,7,1147.0,2014-02-02,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
175
+ 2014-02-07,2014-02-10,4,990.0,2014-02-09,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
176
+ 2014-02-13,2014-02-16,4,1009.0,2014-02-14,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
177
+ 2014-03-01,2014-03-02,2,844.0,2014-03-01,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
178
+ 2014-05-26,2014-05-26,1,738.0,2014-05-26,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
179
+ 2014-05-29,2014-05-29,1,764.0,2014-05-29,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
180
+ 2014-10-17,2014-10-18,2,845.0,2014-10-18,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
181
+ 2014-12-13,2014-12-15,3,1034.0,2014-12-14,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
182
+ 2014-12-18,2014-12-20,3,955.0,2014-12-19,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
183
+ 2015-01-16,2015-01-16,1,847.0,2015-01-16,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
184
+ 2015-01-30,2015-02-02,4,904.0,2015-01-31,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
185
+ 2015-02-21,2015-02-22,2,881.0,2015-02-21,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
186
+ 2015-02-24,2015-02-24,1,732.0,2015-02-24,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
187
+ 2015-02-27,2015-02-28,2,825.0,2015-02-27,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
188
+ 2015-03-30,2015-03-31,2,790.0,2015-03-30,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
189
+ 2016-02-09,2016-02-11,3,1022.0,2016-02-11,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
190
+ 2016-02-13,2016-02-15,3,916.0,2016-02-15,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
191
+ 2016-03-09,2016-03-10,2,744.0,2016-03-10,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
192
+ 2016-04-11,2016-04-12,2,746.0,2016-04-11,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
193
+ 2017-03-07,2017-03-08,2,761.0,2017-03-07,H605641101,711.5999999999999,95.0
194
+ 2013-12-25,2013-12-30,6,2995.0,2013-12-29,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
195
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196
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197
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198
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199
+ 2014-02-28,2014-03-02,3,2726.0,2014-03-02,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
200
+ 2014-05-02,2014-05-02,1,2591.0,2014-05-02,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
201
+ 2014-05-26,2014-05-26,1,2603.0,2014-05-26,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
202
+ 2014-05-29,2014-05-29,1,2645.0,2014-05-29,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
203
+ 2014-10-17,2014-10-18,2,2713.0,2014-10-18,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
204
+ 2014-12-13,2014-12-15,3,2809.0,2014-12-15,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
205
+ 2014-12-18,2014-12-21,4,2785.0,2014-12-19,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
206
+ 2015-01-16,2015-01-17,2,2722.0,2015-01-16,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
207
+ 2015-01-19,2015-01-20,2,2612.0,2015-01-20,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
208
+ 2015-01-30,2015-02-03,5,2755.0,2015-01-31,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
209
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210
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211
+ 2015-03-02,2015-03-03,2,2602.0,2015-03-03,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
212
+ 2015-03-30,2015-03-31,2,2666.0,2015-03-31,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
213
+ 2016-02-09,2016-02-11,3,2757.0,2016-02-11,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
214
+ 2016-02-14,2016-02-15,2,2736.0,2016-02-15,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
215
+ 2016-03-10,2016-03-11,2,2619.0,2016-03-10,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
216
+ 2016-03-29,2016-03-30,2,2660.0,2016-03-29,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
217
+ 2016-04-11,2016-04-12,2,2609.0,2016-04-12,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
218
+ 2017-03-07,2017-03-08,2,2669.0,2017-03-07,H605641201,2587.6,95.0
219
+ 2020-12-23,2020-12-25,3,1079.0,2020-12-24,H605641401,943.6999999999998,95.0
220
+ 2020-12-28,2020-12-30,3,1157.0,2020-12-29,H605641401,943.6999999999998,95.0
221
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222
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223
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224
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225
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226
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227
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228
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229
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230
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231
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232
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233
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234
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235
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236
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237
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238
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239
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240
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241
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242
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243
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244
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245
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246
+ 2024-12-08,2024-12-10,3,1153.0,2024-12-10,H605641401,943.6999999999998,95.0
247
+ 2024-12-22,2024-12-23,2,990.0,2024-12-23,H605641401,943.6999999999998,95.0
248
+ 2025-01-02,2025-01-11,10,1495.0,2025-01-10,H605641401,943.6999999999998,95.0
249
+ 2025-01-25,2025-02-02,9,1831.0,2025-01-26,H605641401,943.6999999999998,95.0
250
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251
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datasets/fp_details_horizon_5.csv ADDED
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