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Update app.py
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app.py
CHANGED
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@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import gradio as gr
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
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from sklearn.metrics import pairwise_distances_argmin_min
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import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
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import matplotlib.cm
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import io
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@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ EXAMPLE_FILES = {
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"cashflow_base": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "cashflows_seriatim_10K.xlsx"),
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"cashflow_lapse": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "cashflows_seriatim_10K_lapse50.xlsx"),
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"cashflow_mort": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "cashflows_seriatim_10K_mort15.xlsx"),
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"policy_data": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "model_point_table.xlsx"),
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"pv_base": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "pv_seriatim_10K.xlsx"),
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"pv_lapse": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "pv_seriatim_10K_lapse50.xlsx"),
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"pv_mort": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "pv_seriatim_10K_mort15.xlsx"),
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@@ -23,16 +23,10 @@ EXAMPLE_FILES = {
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class Clusters:
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def __init__(self, loc_vars):
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raise ValueError("Input data for KMeans (loc_vars) is empty.")
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if loc_vars.isnull().all().all():
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raise ValueError("Input data for KMeans (loc_vars) contains all NaN values.")
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self.kmeans = KMeans(n_clusters=min(1000, len(loc_vars)), random_state=0, n_init=10).fit(np.ascontiguousarray(loc_vars))
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closest, _ = pairwise_distances_argmin_min(self.kmeans.cluster_centers_, np.ascontiguousarray(loc_vars))
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rep_ids = pd.Series(data=(closest
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rep_ids.name = 'policy_id'
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rep_ids.index.name = 'cluster_id'
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self.rep_ids = rep_ids
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@@ -40,242 +34,177 @@ class Clusters:
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self.policy_count = self.agg_by_cluster(pd.DataFrame({'policy_count': [1] * len(loc_vars)}))['policy_count']
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def agg_by_cluster(self, df, agg=None):
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temp = df.copy()
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temp['cluster_id'] = self.kmeans.labels_
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temp = temp.set_index('cluster_id')
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if agg is not None and not isinstance(agg, dict):
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# Assuming if agg is not a dict, it's the default "sum" for all, which is handled by else.
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# This case might need specific handling if agg can be other types.
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# For now, if it's not a dict, treat as if no specific agg ops were given for columns.
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agg_ops = {col: "sum" for col in temp.columns} # Default to sum if agg format is unexpected
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elif isinstance(agg, dict):
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agg_ops = {c: (agg[c] if c in agg else 'sum') for c in temp.columns}
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else: # agg is None
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agg_ops = "sum" # Pandas groupby will apply sum to all numeric columns
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return temp.groupby(temp.index).agg(agg_ops)
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def extract_reps(self, df):
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temp = pd.merge(self.rep_ids, df.reset_index(), how='left', on='policy_id')
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temp.index.name = 'cluster_id'
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return temp.drop('policy_id', axis=1)
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def extract_and_scale_reps(self, df, agg=None):
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if
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scaled_df = extracted_df.copy()
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for c in extracted_df.columns:
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if agg.get(c, 'sum') == 'sum': # Default to 'sum' if column not in agg
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scaled_df[c] = extracted_df[c].mul(self.policy_count, axis=0)
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# else (it's 'mean'), do not scale by policy_count here.
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return scaled_df
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else: # Default: scale all columns by policy_count (as if for sum)
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return extracted_df.mul(self.policy_count, axis=0)
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def compare(self, df, agg=None):
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source = self.agg_by_cluster(df, agg)
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target = self.extract_and_scale_reps(df, agg)
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# The target from extract_and_scale_reps is already scaled per cluster for 'sum' ops.
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# For 'mean' ops, it's the representative value.
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# We need to sum up the 'sum' columns and calculate weighted average for 'mean' columns.
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if agg and isinstance(agg, dict):
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agg_ops_for_target = {}
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for col, method in agg.items():
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if method == 'sum':
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agg_ops_for_target[col] = 'sum'
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elif method == 'mean':
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# For mean, we need sum(val*count)/sum(count).
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# extract_and_scale_reps DID NOT scale mean columns by policy_count.
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# So, target[col] has rep values. We need to weight them.
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# This is better handled in compare_total. Here, target is per-cluster.
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# This function compares per-cluster values BEFORE final aggregation.
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# So target should represent aggregated values per cluster.
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pass # 'sum' columns are scaled, 'mean' columns are rep values
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else: # all sum
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pass # target is already scaled by policy_count, so it's the sum per cluster
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# This function is for per-cluster comparison, not total.
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# The 'target' from extract_and_scale_reps already has the representative values scaled by policy_count for sum-like aggregations.
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# If a column is meant for 'mean', it's just the representative value.
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# This 'compare' function might be misinterpreting 'target' if 'agg' has 'mean'.
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# The original notebook's compare function:
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# source = self.agg_by_cluster(df, agg) # Actual sums/means per cluster
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# target = self.extract_and_scale_reps(df, agg) # Rep values, scaled by count if 'sum', unscaled if 'mean'
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# This structure implies 'target' might not be directly comparable if 'mean' is involved without further processing.
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# However, the scatter plots it generates plot these per-cluster values.
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# For 'sum' variables, target is an estimate of the cluster total.
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# For 'mean' variables, target is the rep's value (estimate of cluster mean).
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return pd.DataFrame({'actual': source.stack(), 'estimate': target.stack()})
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def compare_total(self, df, agg=None):
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"""Aggregate df by columns
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if
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op_for_actual = {}
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if isinstance(agg, dict):
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for c in df.columns:
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op_for_actual[c] = agg.get(c, 'sum') # Default to 'sum' if not in agg
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else: # agg is None or not a dict, apply sum to all
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for c in df.columns:
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if pd.api.types.is_numeric_dtype(df[c]):
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op_for_actual[c] = 'sum'
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# else: non-numeric columns will be ignored by df.agg if op not specified
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actual = df.agg(op_for_actual)
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actual = actual.dropna() # Remove non-numeric results if any
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# Calculate estimate
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reps_values = self.extract_reps(df) # Get raw representative values (one per cluster)
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if reps_values.empty: # No representatives found
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estimate = pd.Series(index=actual.index, dtype=float) # Empty or NaN series
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else:
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estimate_values = {}
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for col_name in actual.index: # Iterate over columns that had a valid actual aggregation
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col_op = op_for_actual.get(col_name, 'sum')
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if col_name not in reps_values.columns: # Should not happen if df columns match
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estimate_values[col_name] = np.nan
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continue
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rep_col_values = reps_values[col_name]
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if col_op == 'sum':
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# Estimate for sum is sum of (representative_value * policy_count_for_its_cluster)
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estimate_values[col_name] = (rep_col_values * self.policy_count).sum()
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elif col_op == 'mean':
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# Estimate for mean is weighted average: sum(rep_value * policy_count) / sum(policy_count)
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weighted_sum = (rep_col_values * self.policy_count).sum()
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total_weight = self.policy_count.sum()
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estimate_values[col_name] = weighted_sum / total_weight if total_weight != 0 else np.nan
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else: # Should not happen given op_for_actual logic
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estimate_values[col_name] = np.nan
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return result_df
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def plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_obj, titles):
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buf = io.BytesIO(); plt.savefig(buf, format='png'); buf.seek(0); img = Image.open(buf); plt.close(fig); return img
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num_plots = len(cfs_list)
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cols = 2
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rows = (num_plots + cols - 1) // cols
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fig, axes = plt.subplots(rows, cols, figsize=(15, 5 * rows), squeeze=False)
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axes = axes.flatten()
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for i, (df_cf, title) in enumerate(zip(cfs_list, titles)):
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if i < len(axes):
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comparison = cluster_obj.compare_total(df_cf) # Default is sum for all columns
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if not comparison.empty and 'actual' in comparison and 'estimate' in comparison:
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comparison[['actual', 'estimate']].plot(ax=axes[i], grid=True, title=title)
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axes[i].set_xlabel('Time')
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axes[i].set_ylabel('Value')
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plot_made = True
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else:
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axes[i].text(0.5,0.5, f"Could not generate comparison for {title}", ha='center', va='center')
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axes[i].set_title(title)
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fig.delaxes(axes[j])
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if not plot_made: # If no plots were actually made (e.g. all data was empty)
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plt.close(fig) # Close the figure
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fig, ax = plt.subplots() # Create a new one for the message
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ax.text(0.5, 0.5, "Insufficient data for any cashflow plots.", ha='center', va='center')
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plt.tight_layout()
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buf = io.BytesIO()
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plt.savefig(buf, format='png', dpi=100)
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buf.seek(0)
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img = Image.open(buf)
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plt.close(fig)
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return img
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def plot_scatter_comparison(df_compare_output, title):
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if df_compare_output is None or df_compare_output.empty:
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if not isinstance(df_compare_output.index, pd.MultiIndex) or df_compare_output.index.nlevels < 2:
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ax.scatter(df_compare_output
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else:
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unique_levels = df_compare_output.index.get_level_values(1).unique()
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colors = matplotlib.cm.rainbow(np.linspace(0, 1, len(unique_levels)))
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for item_level, color_val in zip(unique_levels, colors):
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subset = df_compare_output.xs(item_level, level=1)
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ax.scatter(subset['actual'], subset['estimate'], color=color_val, s=9, alpha=0.6, label=
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if len(unique_levels) > 1 and len(unique_levels) <=10:
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ax.legend(title=df_compare_output.index.names[1])
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ax.set_xlabel('Actual')
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ax.set_ylabel('Estimate')
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ax.set_title(title)
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ax.grid(True)
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ax.set_xlim(lims)
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ax.set_ylim(lims)
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except Exception: # Catch errors if lims are problematic (e.g. all NaNs)
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pass
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buf = io.BytesIO()
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plt.savefig(buf, format='png', dpi=100)
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def process_files(cashflow_base_path, cashflow_lapse_path, cashflow_mort_path,
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policy_data_path, pv_base_path, pv_lapse_path, pv_mort_path):
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try:
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cfs = pd.read_excel(cashflow_base_path, index_col=0)
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cfs_lapse50 = pd.read_excel(cashflow_lapse_path, index_col=0)
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cfs_mort15 = pd.read_excel(cashflow_mort_path, index_col=0)
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pol_data_full = pd.read_excel(policy_data_path, index_col=0)
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required_cols = ['age_at_entry', 'policy_term', 'sum_assured', 'duration_mth']
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if missing_policy_cols:
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gr.Warning(f"Policy data is missing required columns: {', '.join(missing_policy_cols)}. Analysis may be affected.")
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pol_data = pol_data_full # Use what's available
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else:
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pol_data = pol_data_full[required_cols]
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pvs = pd.read_excel(pv_base_path, index_col=0)
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pvs_lapse50 = pd.read_excel(pv_lapse_path, index_col=0)
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pvs_mort15 = pd.read_excel(pv_mort_path, index_col=0)
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cfs_list = [cfs, cfs_lapse50, cfs_mort15]
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scen_titles = ['Base', 'Lapse+50%', 'Mort+15%']
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# --- 1. Cashflow Calibration ---
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gr.Info("Starting Cashflow Calibration...")
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if cfs.empty: gr.Warning("Base cashflow data is empty for Cashflow Calibration.")
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cluster_cfs = Clusters(cfs)
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results['cf_total_base_table'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(cfs)
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results['
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results['cf_pv_total_base'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs)
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results['cf_pv_total_lapse'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50)
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results['cf_pv_total_mort'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_mort15)
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results['cf_cashflow_plot'] = plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_cfs, scen_titles)
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results['cf_scatter_cashflows_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_cfs.compare(cfs), '
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# --- 2. Policy Attribute Calibration ---
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if pol_data.empty :
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loc_vars_attrs = pd.DataFrame() # Empty dataframe
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else:
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if (pol_data_range == 0).any():
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gr.Warning("Some policy attributes have no variance (all values are the same). Standardization might be affected.")
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# For columns with zero range, standardized value becomes 0 or NaN depending on pandas version.
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# A common approach is to set them to 0 or handle them separately.
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# Here, we proceed, but pandas might produce NaNs if (val - min) / 0 occurs.
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# Let's ensure range is not zero for division:
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pol_data_range[pol_data_range == 0] = 1 # Avoid division by zero, effectively making constant columns 0 after (x-min)/1
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loc_vars_attrs = (pol_data - pol_data_min) / pol_data_range
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loc_vars_attrs = loc_vars_attrs.fillna(0) # Handle any NaNs from perfect constant columns
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if not loc_vars_attrs.empty:
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cluster_attrs = Clusters(loc_vars_attrs)
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results['attr_total_cf_base'] = cluster_attrs.compare_total(cfs)
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results['attr_policy_attrs_total'] = cluster_attrs.compare_total(pol_data, agg=
|
| 350 |
results['attr_total_pv_base'] = cluster_attrs.compare_total(pvs)
|
| 351 |
results['attr_cashflow_plot'] = plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_attrs, scen_titles)
|
| 352 |
-
results['attr_scatter_cashflows_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_attrs.compare(cfs), 'Attr Calib. - Cashflows (Base)')
|
| 353 |
-
|
| 354 |
-
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| 355 |
-
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| 356 |
-
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| 357 |
|
| 358 |
# --- 3. Present Value Calibration ---
|
| 359 |
-
gr.Info("Starting Present Value Calibration...")
|
| 360 |
-
if pvs.empty: gr.Warning("Base Present Value data is empty for PV Calibration.")
|
| 361 |
cluster_pvs = Clusters(pvs)
|
|
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|
| 362 |
results['pv_total_cf_base'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(cfs)
|
| 363 |
-
results['pv_policy_attrs_total'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pol_data, agg=
|
|
|
|
| 364 |
results['pv_total_pv_base'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs)
|
| 365 |
results['pv_total_pv_lapse'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50)
|
| 366 |
results['pv_total_pv_mort'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_mort15)
|
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|
| 367 |
results['pv_cashflow_plot'] = plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_pvs, scen_titles)
|
| 368 |
results['pv_scatter_pvs_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_pvs.compare(pvs), 'PV Calib. - PVs (Base)')
|
| 369 |
-
|
| 370 |
-
|
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|
| 371 |
# --- Summary Comparison Plot Data ---
|
| 372 |
-
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| 373 |
error_data = {}
|
| 374 |
-
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| 375 |
|
| 376 |
-
for calib_prefix, cluster_obj, calib_name_display in [
|
| 377 |
-
('CF Calib.', cluster_cfs, "CF Calib."),
|
| 378 |
-
('Attr Calib.', globals().get('cluster_attrs'), "Attr Calib."),
|
| 379 |
-
('PV Calib.', cluster_pvs, "PV Calib.")]:
|
| 380 |
-
|
| 381 |
-
current_calib_errors = []
|
| 382 |
-
if cluster_obj is None and calib_prefix == 'Attr Calib.': # Attr calib might be skipped
|
| 383 |
-
current_calib_errors = [np.nan, np.nan, np.nan]
|
| 384 |
-
else:
|
| 385 |
-
for pv_df_scenario in [pvs, pvs_lapse50, pvs_mort15]:
|
| 386 |
-
if pv_df_scenario.empty:
|
| 387 |
-
current_calib_errors.append(np.nan)
|
| 388 |
-
continue
|
| 389 |
-
|
| 390 |
-
comp_total_df = cluster_obj.compare_total(pv_df_scenario)
|
| 391 |
-
if pv_col_name in comp_total_df.index:
|
| 392 |
-
error_val = comp_total_df.loc[pv_col_name, 'error']
|
| 393 |
-
elif not comp_total_df.empty and 'error' in comp_total_df.columns:
|
| 394 |
-
error_val = comp_total_df['error'].mean() # Fallback
|
| 395 |
-
if calib_prefix == 'CF Calib.' and pv_df_scenario is pvs: # Only warn once per type if fallback
|
| 396 |
-
gr.Warning(f"'{pv_col_name}' not found for summary plot. Using mean error of all PV columns instead for {calib_name_display}.")
|
| 397 |
-
else: # comp_total_df is empty or no 'error' column
|
| 398 |
-
error_val = np.nan
|
| 399 |
-
current_calib_errors.append(abs(error_val))
|
| 400 |
-
error_data[calib_name_display] = current_calib_errors
|
| 401 |
|
| 402 |
-
|
| 403 |
-
|
| 404 |
-
|
|
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|
| 405 |
|
| 406 |
-
|
| 407 |
-
if
|
| 408 |
-
|
| 409 |
-
|
| 410 |
-
|
| 411 |
-
|
| 412 |
-
|
| 413 |
-
|
| 414 |
else:
|
| 415 |
-
|
| 416 |
-
|
| 417 |
-
|
| 418 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 419 |
|
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|
| 420 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 421 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 422 |
results['summary_plot'] = Image.open(buf_summary)
|
| 423 |
plt.close(fig_summary)
|
| 424 |
-
|
| 425 |
return results
|
| 426 |
|
| 427 |
except FileNotFoundError as e:
|
| 428 |
-
gr.Error(f"File not found: {e.filename}.
|
| 429 |
return {"error": f"File not found: {e.filename}"}
|
| 430 |
-
except ValueError as e: # Catch specific errors like empty data for KMeans
|
| 431 |
-
gr.Error(f"Data validation error: {str(e)}")
|
| 432 |
-
return {"error": f"Data error: {str(e)}"}
|
| 433 |
except KeyError as e:
|
| 434 |
-
gr.Error(f"A required column is missing: {e}. Please check data
|
| 435 |
return {"error": f"Missing column: {e}"}
|
| 436 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 437 |
-
gr.Error(f"
|
| 438 |
-
|
| 439 |
-
traceback.print_exc() # Print full traceback to console for debugging
|
| 440 |
-
return {"error": f"Processing error: {str(e)}"}
|
| 441 |
|
| 442 |
|
| 443 |
def create_interface():
|
| 444 |
-
with gr.Blocks(title="Cluster Model Points Analysis") as demo:
|
| 445 |
gr.Markdown("""
|
| 446 |
# Cluster Model Points Analysis
|
| 447 |
-
|
| 448 |
-
|
| 449 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 450 |
- Cashflows - Base Scenario
|
| 451 |
- Cashflows - Lapse Stress (+50%)
|
| 452 |
- Cashflows - Mortality Stress (+15%)
|
| 453 |
-
- Policy Data (
|
| 454 |
-
- Present Values - Base Scenario
|
| 455 |
-
- Present Values - Lapse Stress
|
| 456 |
-
- Present Values - Mortality Stress
|
| 457 |
""")
|
| 458 |
|
| 459 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 460 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 461 |
-
gr.Markdown("###
|
| 462 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 463 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 464 |
cashflow_base_input = gr.File(label="Cashflows - Base", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
| 465 |
cashflow_lapse_input = gr.File(label="Cashflows - Lapse Stress", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
|
@@ -470,134 +417,155 @@ def create_interface():
|
|
| 470 |
pv_lapse_input = gr.File(label="Present Values - Lapse Stress", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
| 471 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 472 |
pv_mort_input = gr.File(label="Present Values - Mortality Stress", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
| 473 |
-
|
| 474 |
-
|
| 475 |
-
|
| 476 |
-
|
| 477 |
-
analyze_btn = gr.Button("Analyze Dataset", variant="primary", icon="🚀", scale=1)
|
| 478 |
|
| 479 |
with gr.Tabs():
|
| 480 |
with gr.TabItem("📊 Summary"):
|
| 481 |
-
summary_plot_output = gr.Image(label="Calibration Methods Comparison")
|
| 482 |
|
| 483 |
with gr.TabItem("💸 Cashflow Calibration"):
|
| 484 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Results: Using Annual Cashflows
|
| 485 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 486 |
-
cf_total_base_table_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Base
|
| 487 |
-
cf_policy_attrs_total_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Policy Attributes"
|
| 488 |
-
cf_cashflow_plot_out = gr.Image(label="Cashflow Value Comparisons (Actual vs. Estimate)")
|
| 489 |
-
cf_scatter_cashflows_base_out = gr.Image(label="Scatter
|
| 490 |
-
with gr.Accordion("Present Value Comparisons (
|
| 491 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 492 |
-
cf_pv_total_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Base
|
| 493 |
-
cf_pv_total_lapse_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Lapse Stress
|
| 494 |
-
cf_pv_total_mort_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Mortality Stress
|
| 495 |
|
| 496 |
with gr.TabItem("👤 Policy Attribute Calibration"):
|
| 497 |
gr.Markdown("### Results: Using Policy Attributes as Calibration Variables")
|
| 498 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 499 |
-
attr_total_cf_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Base
|
| 500 |
-
attr_policy_attrs_total_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Policy Attributes"
|
| 501 |
-
attr_cashflow_plot_out = gr.Image(label="Cashflow Value Comparisons (Actual vs. Estimate)")
|
| 502 |
-
attr_scatter_cashflows_base_out = gr.Image(label="Scatter
|
| 503 |
-
with gr.Accordion("Present Value Comparisons (
|
| 504 |
-
attr_total_pv_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Base Scenario
|
| 505 |
|
| 506 |
with gr.TabItem("💰 Present Value Calibration"):
|
| 507 |
-
gr.Markdown("### Results: Using Present Values (Base) as Calibration Variables")
|
| 508 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 509 |
-
pv_total_cf_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Base
|
| 510 |
-
pv_policy_attrs_total_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Policy Attributes"
|
| 511 |
-
pv_cashflow_plot_out = gr.Image(label="Cashflow Value Comparisons (Actual vs. Estimate)")
|
| 512 |
-
pv_scatter_pvs_base_out = gr.Image(label="Scatter
|
| 513 |
-
with gr.Accordion("Present Value Comparisons (
|
| 514 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 515 |
-
pv_total_pv_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Base
|
| 516 |
-
pv_total_pv_lapse_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Lapse Stress
|
| 517 |
-
pv_total_pv_mort_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Mortality Stress
|
| 518 |
-
|
| 519 |
-
|
| 520 |
-
|
| 521 |
-
|
| 522 |
-
|
| 523 |
-
|
| 524 |
-
|
| 525 |
-
|
| 526 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 527 |
|
| 528 |
-
|
| 529 |
-
|
| 530 |
-
|
| 531 |
-
|
| 532 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 533 |
|
| 534 |
-
# file objects (f1, etc.) from gr.File are TemporaryFileWrapper or string paths if loaded by example
|
| 535 |
file_paths = []
|
| 536 |
-
for f_obj in
|
| 537 |
-
if
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 538 |
file_paths.append(f_obj.name)
|
| 539 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 540 |
file_paths.append(f_obj)
|
| 541 |
-
else:
|
| 542 |
-
gr.Error(f"Invalid file input
|
| 543 |
-
return [None] * len(
|
| 544 |
-
|
| 545 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 546 |
|
| 547 |
-
if "error" in
|
| 548 |
-
|
|
|
|
| 549 |
|
| 550 |
-
# Map results to output components
|
| 551 |
return [
|
| 552 |
-
|
| 553 |
-
|
| 554 |
-
|
| 555 |
-
|
| 556 |
-
|
| 557 |
-
|
| 558 |
-
|
| 559 |
-
|
| 560 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 561 |
]
|
| 562 |
|
| 563 |
analyze_btn.click(
|
| 564 |
-
|
| 565 |
inputs=[cashflow_base_input, cashflow_lapse_input, cashflow_mort_input,
|
| 566 |
policy_data_input, pv_base_input, pv_lapse_input, pv_mort_input],
|
| 567 |
-
outputs=
|
| 568 |
)
|
| 569 |
|
| 570 |
-
|
| 571 |
-
|
| 572 |
-
|
| 573 |
-
|
| 574 |
-
|
| 575 |
-
|
| 576 |
-
|
| 577 |
-
|
| 578 |
-
|
| 579 |
-
gr.Info(f"Example data paths loaded from '{EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR}'. Click 'Analyze Dataset'.")
|
| 580 |
return [
|
| 581 |
EXAMPLE_FILES["cashflow_base"], EXAMPLE_FILES["cashflow_lapse"], EXAMPLE_FILES["cashflow_mort"],
|
| 582 |
EXAMPLE_FILES["policy_data"], EXAMPLE_FILES["pv_base"], EXAMPLE_FILES["pv_lapse"],
|
| 583 |
EXAMPLE_FILES["pv_mort"]
|
| 584 |
]
|
| 585 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 586 |
return demo
|
| 587 |
|
| 588 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
|
|
|
| 589 |
if not os.path.exists(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR):
|
| 590 |
-
|
| 591 |
-
|
| 592 |
-
|
| 593 |
-
|
| 594 |
-
|
| 595 |
-
|
| 596 |
-
|
| 597 |
-
|
| 598 |
-
|
| 599 |
-
print(f"Required policy data columns: 'age_at_entry', 'policy_term', 'sum_assured', 'duration_mth' (and an index col).")
|
| 600 |
-
print(f"Recommended PV files column for summary: 'PV_NetCF' (and an index col).")
|
| 601 |
|
| 602 |
demo_app = create_interface()
|
| 603 |
demo_app.launch()
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
import numpy as np
|
| 3 |
import pandas as pd
|
| 4 |
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
|
| 5 |
+
from sklearn.metrics import pairwise_distances_argmin_min, r2_score
|
| 6 |
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 7 |
import matplotlib.cm
|
| 8 |
import io
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
"cashflow_base": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "cashflows_seriatim_10K.xlsx"),
|
| 16 |
"cashflow_lapse": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "cashflows_seriatim_10K_lapse50.xlsx"),
|
| 17 |
"cashflow_mort": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "cashflows_seriatim_10K_mort15.xlsx"),
|
| 18 |
+
"policy_data": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "model_point_table.xlsx"), # Assuming this is the correct path/name for the example
|
| 19 |
"pv_base": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "pv_seriatim_10K.xlsx"),
|
| 20 |
"pv_lapse": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "pv_seriatim_10K_lapse50.xlsx"),
|
| 21 |
"pv_mort": os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "pv_seriatim_10K_mort15.xlsx"),
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
|
| 24 |
class Clusters:
|
| 25 |
def __init__(self, loc_vars):
|
| 26 |
+
self.kmeans = kmeans = KMeans(n_clusters=1000, random_state=0, n_init=10).fit(np.ascontiguousarray(loc_vars))
|
| 27 |
+
closest, _ = pairwise_distances_argmin_min(kmeans.cluster_centers_, np.ascontiguousarray(loc_vars))
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
|
| 29 |
+
rep_ids = pd.Series(data=(closest+1)) # 0-based to 1-based indexes
|
| 30 |
rep_ids.name = 'policy_id'
|
| 31 |
rep_ids.index.name = 'cluster_id'
|
| 32 |
self.rep_ids = rep_ids
|
|
|
|
| 34 |
self.policy_count = self.agg_by_cluster(pd.DataFrame({'policy_count': [1] * len(loc_vars)}))['policy_count']
|
| 35 |
|
| 36 |
def agg_by_cluster(self, df, agg=None):
|
| 37 |
+
"""Aggregate columns by cluster"""
|
| 38 |
temp = df.copy()
|
| 39 |
temp['cluster_id'] = self.kmeans.labels_
|
| 40 |
temp = temp.set_index('cluster_id')
|
| 41 |
+
agg = {c: (agg[c] if agg and c in agg else 'sum') for c in temp.columns} if agg else "sum"
|
| 42 |
+
return temp.groupby(temp.index).agg(agg)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 43 |
|
| 44 |
def extract_reps(self, df):
|
| 45 |
+
"""Extract the rows of representative policies"""
|
| 46 |
temp = pd.merge(self.rep_ids, df.reset_index(), how='left', on='policy_id')
|
| 47 |
temp.index.name = 'cluster_id'
|
| 48 |
return temp.drop('policy_id', axis=1)
|
| 49 |
|
| 50 |
def extract_and_scale_reps(self, df, agg=None):
|
| 51 |
+
"""Extract and scale the rows of representative policies"""
|
| 52 |
+
if agg:
|
| 53 |
+
cols = df.columns
|
| 54 |
+
mult = pd.DataFrame({c: (self.policy_count if (c not in agg or agg[c] == 'sum') else 1) for c in cols})
|
| 55 |
+
# Ensure mult has same index as extract_reps(df) for proper alignment
|
| 56 |
+
extracted_df = self.extract_reps(df)
|
| 57 |
+
mult.index = extracted_df.index
|
| 58 |
+
return extracted_df.mul(mult)
|
| 59 |
+
else:
|
| 60 |
+
return self.extract_reps(df).mul(self.policy_count, axis=0)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 61 |
|
| 62 |
def compare(self, df, agg=None):
|
| 63 |
+
"""Returns a multi-indexed Dataframe comparing actual and estimate"""
|
| 64 |
source = self.agg_by_cluster(df, agg)
|
| 65 |
+
target = self.extract_and_scale_reps(df, agg)
|
| 66 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({'actual': source.stack(), 'estimate':target.stack()})
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 67 |
|
| 68 |
def compare_total(self, df, agg=None):
|
| 69 |
+
"""Aggregate df by columns"""
|
| 70 |
+
if agg:
|
| 71 |
+
# cols = df.columns # Not used
|
| 72 |
+
op = {c: (agg[c] if c in agg else 'sum') for c in df.columns}
|
| 73 |
+
actual = df.agg(op)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
| 74 |
|
| 75 |
+
# For estimate, ensure aggregation ops are correctly applied *after* scaling
|
| 76 |
+
scaled_reps = self.extract_and_scale_reps(df, agg=op) # Pass op to ensure correct scaling for mean
|
| 77 |
+
|
| 78 |
+
# Corrected aggregation for estimate when 'mean' is involved
|
| 79 |
+
estimate_agg_ops = {}
|
| 80 |
+
for col_name, agg_type in op.items():
|
| 81 |
+
if agg_type == 'mean':
|
| 82 |
+
# Weighted average for mean columns
|
| 83 |
+
estimate_agg_ops[col_name] = lambda s, c=col_name: (s * self.policy_count.reindex(s.index)).sum() / self.policy_count.reindex(s.index).sum() if c in self.policy_count.name else s.mean()
|
| 84 |
+
else: # 'sum'
|
| 85 |
+
estimate_agg_ops[col_name] = 'sum'
|
| 86 |
+
|
| 87 |
+
# Need to handle the case where extract_and_scale_reps already applied scaling for sum
|
| 88 |
+
# The logic in extract_and_scale_reps is:
|
| 89 |
+
# mult = pd.DataFrame({c: (self.policy_count if (c not in agg or agg[c] == 'sum') else 1) for c in cols})
|
| 90 |
+
# This means 'mean' columns are NOT multiplied by policy_count initially.
|
| 91 |
+
|
| 92 |
+
# Let's re-think the estimate aggregation for 'mean'
|
| 93 |
+
estimate_scaled = self.extract_and_scale_reps(df, agg=op) # agg=op is important here
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
final_estimate_ops = {}
|
| 96 |
+
for col, method in op.items():
|
| 97 |
+
if method == 'mean':
|
| 98 |
+
# For mean, we need the sum of (value * policy_count) / sum(policy_count)
|
| 99 |
+
# extract_and_scale_reps with agg=op should have scaled sum-columns by policy_count
|
| 100 |
+
# and mean-columns by 1. So, for mean columns in estimate_scaled, we need to multiply by policy_count,
|
| 101 |
+
# sum them up, and divide by total policy_count.
|
| 102 |
+
# However, the current extract_and_scale_reps scales 'mean' columns by 1.
|
| 103 |
+
# So we need to take the mean of these scaled (by 1) values, but it should be a weighted mean.
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
# Let's try to be more direct:
|
| 106 |
+
# Get the representative policies (unscaled for mean columns)
|
| 107 |
+
reps_unscaled_for_mean = self.extract_reps(df)
|
| 108 |
+
estimate_values = {}
|
| 109 |
+
for c in df.columns:
|
| 110 |
+
if op[c] == 'sum':
|
| 111 |
+
estimate_values[c] = reps_unscaled_for_mean[c].mul(self.policy_count, axis=0).sum()
|
| 112 |
+
elif op[c] == 'mean':
|
| 113 |
+
weighted_sum = (reps_unscaled_for_mean[c] * self.policy_count).sum()
|
| 114 |
+
total_weight = self.policy_count.sum()
|
| 115 |
+
estimate_values[c] = weighted_sum / total_weight if total_weight else 0
|
| 116 |
+
estimate = pd.Series(estimate_values)
|
| 117 |
+
|
| 118 |
+
else: # original 'sum' logic for all columns
|
| 119 |
+
final_estimate_ops[col] = 'sum' # All columns in estimate_scaled are ready to be summed up
|
| 120 |
+
estimate = estimate_scaled.agg(final_estimate_ops)
|
| 121 |
+
|
| 122 |
+
|
| 123 |
+
else: # Original logic if no agg is specified (all sum)
|
| 124 |
+
actual = df.sum()
|
| 125 |
+
estimate = self.extract_and_scale_reps(df).sum()
|
| 126 |
|
| 127 |
+
return pd.DataFrame({'actual': actual, 'estimate': estimate, 'error': estimate / actual - 1})
|
|
|
|
| 128 |
|
| 129 |
|
| 130 |
def plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_obj, titles):
|
| 131 |
+
"""Create cashflow comparison plots"""
|
| 132 |
+
if not cfs_list or not cluster_obj or not titles:
|
| 133 |
+
return None # Or a placeholder image
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 134 |
num_plots = len(cfs_list)
|
| 135 |
+
if num_plots == 0:
|
| 136 |
+
return None
|
| 137 |
+
|
| 138 |
+
# Determine subplot layout (e.g., 2x2 or adapt)
|
| 139 |
cols = 2
|
| 140 |
rows = (num_plots + cols - 1) // cols
|
| 141 |
|
| 142 |
+
fig, axes = plt.subplots(rows, cols, figsize=(15, 5 * rows), squeeze=False) # Ensure axes is always 2D
|
| 143 |
axes = axes.flatten()
|
| 144 |
|
| 145 |
+
for i, (df, title) in enumerate(zip(cfs_list, titles)):
|
|
|
|
| 146 |
if i < len(axes):
|
| 147 |
+
comparison = cluster_obj.compare_total(df)
|
| 148 |
+
comparison[['actual', 'estimate']].plot(ax=axes[i], grid=True, title=title)
|
| 149 |
+
axes[i].set_xlabel('Time') # Assuming x-axis is time for cashflows
|
| 150 |
+
axes[i].set_ylabel('Value')
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 151 |
|
| 152 |
+
# Hide any unused subplots
|
| 153 |
+
for j in range(i + 1, len(axes)):
|
| 154 |
fig.delaxes(axes[j])
|
| 155 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 156 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 157 |
buf = io.BytesIO()
|
| 158 |
+
plt.savefig(buf, format='png', dpi=100) # Lowered DPI slightly for potentially faster rendering
|
| 159 |
buf.seek(0)
|
| 160 |
img = Image.open(buf)
|
| 161 |
+
plt.close(fig) # Ensure figure is closed
|
| 162 |
return img
|
| 163 |
|
| 164 |
def plot_scatter_comparison(df_compare_output, title):
|
| 165 |
+
"""Create scatter plot comparison from compare() output"""
|
| 166 |
if df_compare_output is None or df_compare_output.empty:
|
| 167 |
+
# Create a blank plot with a message
|
| 168 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8))
|
| 169 |
+
ax.text(0.5, 0.5, "No data to display", ha='center', va='center', fontsize=15)
|
| 170 |
+
ax.set_title(title)
|
| 171 |
+
buf = io.BytesIO()
|
| 172 |
+
plt.savefig(buf, format='png', dpi=100)
|
| 173 |
+
buf.seek(0)
|
| 174 |
+
img = Image.open(buf)
|
| 175 |
+
plt.close(fig)
|
| 176 |
+
return img
|
| 177 |
+
|
| 178 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8)) # Use a single Axes object
|
| 179 |
|
| 180 |
if not isinstance(df_compare_output.index, pd.MultiIndex) or df_compare_output.index.nlevels < 2:
|
| 181 |
+
gr.Warning("Scatter plot data is not in the expected multi-index format. Plotting raw actual vs estimate.")
|
| 182 |
+
ax.scatter(df_compare_output['actual'], df_compare_output['estimate'], s=9, alpha=0.6)
|
| 183 |
else:
|
| 184 |
unique_levels = df_compare_output.index.get_level_values(1).unique()
|
| 185 |
colors = matplotlib.cm.rainbow(np.linspace(0, 1, len(unique_levels)))
|
| 186 |
|
| 187 |
for item_level, color_val in zip(unique_levels, colors):
|
| 188 |
subset = df_compare_output.xs(item_level, level=1)
|
| 189 |
+
ax.scatter(subset['actual'], subset['estimate'], color=color_val, s=9, alpha=0.6, label=item_level)
|
| 190 |
+
if len(unique_levels) > 1 and len(unique_levels) <=10: # Add legend if not too many items
|
| 191 |
ax.legend(title=df_compare_output.index.names[1])
|
| 192 |
|
| 193 |
+
|
| 194 |
ax.set_xlabel('Actual')
|
| 195 |
ax.set_ylabel('Estimate')
|
| 196 |
ax.set_title(title)
|
| 197 |
ax.grid(True)
|
| 198 |
|
| 199 |
+
# Draw identity line
|
| 200 |
+
lims = [
|
| 201 |
+
np.min([ax.get_xlim(), ax.get_ylim()]),
|
| 202 |
+
np.max([ax.get_xlim(), ax.get_ylim()]),
|
| 203 |
+
]
|
| 204 |
+
if lims[0] != lims[1]: # Avoid issues if all data is zero or a single point
|
| 205 |
+
ax.plot(lims, lims, 'r-', linewidth=0.5)
|
| 206 |
+
ax.set_xlim(lims)
|
| 207 |
+
ax.set_ylim(lims)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 208 |
|
| 209 |
buf = io.BytesIO()
|
| 210 |
plt.savefig(buf, format='png', dpi=100)
|
|
|
|
| 216 |
|
| 217 |
def process_files(cashflow_base_path, cashflow_lapse_path, cashflow_mort_path,
|
| 218 |
policy_data_path, pv_base_path, pv_lapse_path, pv_mort_path):
|
| 219 |
+
"""Main processing function - now accepts file paths"""
|
| 220 |
try:
|
| 221 |
+
# Read uploaded files using paths
|
| 222 |
cfs = pd.read_excel(cashflow_base_path, index_col=0)
|
| 223 |
cfs_lapse50 = pd.read_excel(cashflow_lapse_path, index_col=0)
|
| 224 |
cfs_mort15 = pd.read_excel(cashflow_mort_path, index_col=0)
|
| 225 |
|
| 226 |
pol_data_full = pd.read_excel(policy_data_path, index_col=0)
|
| 227 |
+
# Ensure the correct columns are selected for pol_data
|
| 228 |
required_cols = ['age_at_entry', 'policy_term', 'sum_assured', 'duration_mth']
|
| 229 |
+
if all(col in pol_data_full.columns for col in required_cols):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 230 |
pol_data = pol_data_full[required_cols]
|
| 231 |
+
else:
|
| 232 |
+
# Fallback or error if columns are missing. For now, try to use as is or a subset.
|
| 233 |
+
gr.Warning(f"Policy data might be missing required columns. Found: {pol_data_full.columns.tolist()}")
|
| 234 |
+
pol_data = pol_data_full
|
| 235 |
+
|
| 236 |
+
|
| 237 |
pvs = pd.read_excel(pv_base_path, index_col=0)
|
| 238 |
pvs_lapse50 = pd.read_excel(pv_lapse_path, index_col=0)
|
| 239 |
pvs_mort15 = pd.read_excel(pv_mort_path, index_col=0)
|
| 240 |
|
| 241 |
cfs_list = [cfs, cfs_lapse50, cfs_mort15]
|
| 242 |
+
# pvs_list = [pvs, pvs_lapse50, pvs_mort15] # Not directly used for plotting in this structure
|
| 243 |
scen_titles = ['Base', 'Lapse+50%', 'Mort+15%']
|
| 244 |
|
| 245 |
+
results = {}
|
| 246 |
+
|
| 247 |
+
mean_attrs = {'age_at_entry':'mean', 'policy_term':'mean', 'duration_mth':'mean', 'sum_assured': 'sum'} # sum_assured is usually summed
|
| 248 |
|
| 249 |
# --- 1. Cashflow Calibration ---
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 250 |
cluster_cfs = Clusters(cfs)
|
| 251 |
+
|
| 252 |
results['cf_total_base_table'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(cfs)
|
| 253 |
+
# results['cf_total_lapse_table'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(cfs_lapse50) # For full detail if needed
|
| 254 |
+
# results['cf_total_mort_table'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(cfs_mort15)
|
| 255 |
+
|
| 256 |
+
results['cf_policy_attrs_total'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pol_data, agg=mean_attrs)
|
| 257 |
+
|
| 258 |
results['cf_pv_total_base'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs)
|
| 259 |
results['cf_pv_total_lapse'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50)
|
| 260 |
results['cf_pv_total_mort'] = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_mort15)
|
| 261 |
+
|
| 262 |
results['cf_cashflow_plot'] = plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_cfs, scen_titles)
|
| 263 |
+
results['cf_scatter_cashflows_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_cfs.compare(cfs), 'Cashflow Calib. - Cashflows (Base)')
|
| 264 |
+
# results['cf_scatter_policy_attrs'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_cfs.compare(pol_data, agg=mean_attrs), 'Cashflow Calib. - Policy Attributes')
|
| 265 |
+
# results['cf_scatter_pvs_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_cfs.compare(pvs), 'Cashflow Calib. - PVs (Base)')
|
| 266 |
|
| 267 |
# --- 2. Policy Attribute Calibration ---
|
| 268 |
+
# Standardize policy attributes
|
| 269 |
+
if not pol_data.empty and (pol_data.max() - pol_data.min()).all() != 0 : # Avoid division by zero if a column is constant
|
| 270 |
+
loc_vars_attrs = (pol_data - pol_data.min()) / (pol_data.max() - pol_data.min())
|
|
|
|
| 271 |
else:
|
| 272 |
+
gr.Warning("Policy data for attribute calibration is empty or has no variance. Skipping attribute calibration plots.")
|
| 273 |
+
loc_vars_attrs = pol_data # or handle as an error/skip
|
| 274 |
+
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 275 |
if not loc_vars_attrs.empty:
|
| 276 |
cluster_attrs = Clusters(loc_vars_attrs)
|
| 277 |
results['attr_total_cf_base'] = cluster_attrs.compare_total(cfs)
|
| 278 |
+
results['attr_policy_attrs_total'] = cluster_attrs.compare_total(pol_data, agg=mean_attrs)
|
| 279 |
results['attr_total_pv_base'] = cluster_attrs.compare_total(pvs)
|
| 280 |
results['attr_cashflow_plot'] = plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_attrs, scen_titles)
|
| 281 |
+
results['attr_scatter_cashflows_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_attrs.compare(cfs), 'Policy Attr. Calib. - Cashflows (Base)')
|
| 282 |
+
# results['attr_scatter_policy_attrs'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_attrs.compare(pol_data, agg=mean_attrs), 'Policy Attr. Calib. - Policy Attributes')
|
| 283 |
+
|
| 284 |
+
else: # Fill with None if skipped
|
| 285 |
+
results['attr_total_cf_base'] = pd.DataFrame()
|
| 286 |
+
results['attr_policy_attrs_total'] = pd.DataFrame()
|
| 287 |
+
results['attr_total_pv_base'] = pd.DataFrame()
|
| 288 |
+
results['attr_cashflow_plot'] = None
|
| 289 |
+
results['attr_scatter_cashflows_base'] = None
|
| 290 |
+
|
| 291 |
|
| 292 |
# --- 3. Present Value Calibration ---
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 293 |
cluster_pvs = Clusters(pvs)
|
| 294 |
+
|
| 295 |
results['pv_total_cf_base'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(cfs)
|
| 296 |
+
results['pv_policy_attrs_total'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pol_data, agg=mean_attrs)
|
| 297 |
+
|
| 298 |
results['pv_total_pv_base'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs)
|
| 299 |
results['pv_total_pv_lapse'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50)
|
| 300 |
results['pv_total_pv_mort'] = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_mort15)
|
| 301 |
+
|
| 302 |
results['pv_cashflow_plot'] = plot_cashflows_comparison(cfs_list, cluster_pvs, scen_titles)
|
| 303 |
results['pv_scatter_pvs_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_pvs.compare(pvs), 'PV Calib. - PVs (Base)')
|
| 304 |
+
# results['pv_scatter_cashflows_base'] = plot_scatter_comparison(cluster_pvs.compare(cfs), 'PV Calib. - Cashflows (Base)')
|
| 305 |
+
|
| 306 |
+
|
| 307 |
# --- Summary Comparison Plot Data ---
|
| 308 |
+
# Error metric: Mean Absolute Percentage Error for the 'TOTAL' net present value of cashflows (usually the 'PV_NetCF' column)
|
| 309 |
+
# Or sum of absolute errors if percentage is problematic (e.g. actual is zero)
|
| 310 |
+
# For simplicity, using mean of the 'error' column from compare_total for key metrics
|
| 311 |
+
|
| 312 |
error_data = {}
|
| 313 |
+
|
| 314 |
+
# Cashflow Calibration Errors
|
| 315 |
+
if 'PV_NetCF' in pvs.columns:
|
| 316 |
+
err_cf_cal_pv_base = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 317 |
+
err_cf_cal_pv_lapse = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 318 |
+
err_cf_cal_pv_mort = cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_mort15).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 319 |
+
error_data['CF Calib. (PV NetCF)'] = [
|
| 320 |
+
abs(err_cf_cal_pv_base), abs(err_cf_cal_pv_lapse), abs(err_cf_cal_pv_mort)
|
| 321 |
+
]
|
| 322 |
+
else: # Fallback if PV_NetCF is not present
|
| 323 |
+
error_data['CF Calib. (PV NetCF)'] = [
|
| 324 |
+
abs(cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs)['error'].mean()),
|
| 325 |
+
abs(cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50)['error'].mean()),
|
| 326 |
+
abs(cluster_cfs.compare_total(pvs_mort15)['error'].mean())
|
| 327 |
+
]
|
| 328 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 329 |
|
| 330 |
+
# Policy Attribute Calibration Errors
|
| 331 |
+
if not loc_vars_attrs.empty and 'PV_NetCF' in pvs.columns:
|
| 332 |
+
err_attr_cal_pv_base = cluster_attrs.compare_total(pvs).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 333 |
+
err_attr_cal_pv_lapse = cluster_attrs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 334 |
+
err_attr_cal_pv_mort = cluster_attrs.compare_total(pvs_mort15).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 335 |
+
error_data['Attr Calib. (PV NetCF)'] = [
|
| 336 |
+
abs(err_attr_cal_pv_base), abs(err_attr_cal_pv_lapse), abs(err_attr_cal_pv_mort)
|
| 337 |
+
]
|
| 338 |
+
else:
|
| 339 |
+
error_data['Attr Calib. (PV NetCF)'] = [np.nan, np.nan, np.nan] # Placeholder if skipped
|
| 340 |
+
|
| 341 |
|
| 342 |
+
# Present Value Calibration Errors
|
| 343 |
+
if 'PV_NetCF' in pvs.columns:
|
| 344 |
+
err_pv_cal_pv_base = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 345 |
+
err_pv_cal_pv_lapse = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 346 |
+
err_pv_cal_pv_mort = cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_mort15).loc['PV_NetCF', 'error']
|
| 347 |
+
error_data['PV Calib. (PV NetCF)'] = [
|
| 348 |
+
abs(err_pv_cal_pv_base), abs(err_pv_cal_pv_lapse), abs(err_pv_cal_pv_mort)
|
| 349 |
+
]
|
| 350 |
else:
|
| 351 |
+
error_data['PV Calib. (PV NetCF)'] = [
|
| 352 |
+
abs(cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs)['error'].mean()),
|
| 353 |
+
abs(cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_lapse50)['error'].mean()),
|
| 354 |
+
abs(cluster_pvs.compare_total(pvs_mort15)['error'].mean())
|
| 355 |
+
]
|
| 356 |
|
| 357 |
+
# Create Summary Plot
|
| 358 |
+
summary_df = pd.DataFrame(error_data, index=['Base', 'Lapse+50%', 'Mort+15%'])
|
| 359 |
+
|
| 360 |
+
fig_summary, ax_summary = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
|
| 361 |
+
summary_df.plot(kind='bar', ax=ax_summary, grid=True)
|
| 362 |
+
ax_summary.set_ylabel('Mean Absolute Error (of PV_NetCF)')
|
| 363 |
+
ax_summary.set_title('Calibration Method Comparison - Error in Total PV Net Cashflow')
|
| 364 |
+
ax_summary.tick_params(axis='x', rotation=0)
|
| 365 |
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 366 |
+
|
| 367 |
+
buf_summary = io.BytesIO()
|
| 368 |
+
plt.savefig(buf_summary, format='png', dpi=100)
|
| 369 |
+
buf_summary.seek(0)
|
| 370 |
results['summary_plot'] = Image.open(buf_summary)
|
| 371 |
plt.close(fig_summary)
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
return results
|
| 374 |
|
| 375 |
except FileNotFoundError as e:
|
| 376 |
+
gr.Error(f"File not found: {e.filename}. Please ensure example files are in '{EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR}' or all files are uploaded.")
|
| 377 |
return {"error": f"File not found: {e.filename}"}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 378 |
except KeyError as e:
|
| 379 |
+
gr.Error(f"A required column is missing from one of the excel files: {e}. Please check data format.")
|
| 380 |
return {"error": f"Missing column: {e}"}
|
| 381 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 382 |
+
gr.Error(f"Error processing files: {str(e)}")
|
| 383 |
+
return {"error": f"Error processing files: {str(e)}"}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 384 |
|
| 385 |
|
| 386 |
def create_interface():
|
| 387 |
+
with gr.Blocks(title="Cluster Model Points Analysis") as demo: # Removed theme
|
| 388 |
gr.Markdown("""
|
| 389 |
# Cluster Model Points Analysis
|
| 390 |
+
|
| 391 |
+
This application applies cluster analysis to model point selection for insurance portfolios.
|
| 392 |
+
Upload your Excel files or use the example data to analyze cashflows, policy attributes, and present values using different calibration methods.
|
| 393 |
+
|
| 394 |
+
**Required Files (Excel .xlsx):**
|
| 395 |
- Cashflows - Base Scenario
|
| 396 |
- Cashflows - Lapse Stress (+50%)
|
| 397 |
- Cashflows - Mortality Stress (+15%)
|
| 398 |
+
- Policy Data (including 'age_at_entry', 'policy_term', 'sum_assured', 'duration_mth')
|
| 399 |
+
- Present Values - Base Scenario
|
| 400 |
+
- Present Values - Lapse Stress
|
| 401 |
+
- Present Values - Mortality Stress
|
| 402 |
""")
|
| 403 |
|
| 404 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 405 |
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 406 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Upload Files or Load Examples")
|
| 407 |
+
|
| 408 |
+
load_example_btn = gr.Button("Load Example Data")
|
| 409 |
+
|
| 410 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 411 |
cashflow_base_input = gr.File(label="Cashflows - Base", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
| 412 |
cashflow_lapse_input = gr.File(label="Cashflows - Lapse Stress", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
|
|
|
| 417 |
pv_lapse_input = gr.File(label="Present Values - Lapse Stress", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
| 418 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 419 |
pv_mort_input = gr.File(label="Present Values - Mortality Stress", file_types=[".xlsx"])
|
| 420 |
+
|
| 421 |
+
analyze_btn = gr.Button("Analyze Dataset", variant="primary", size="lg")
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 422 |
|
| 423 |
with gr.Tabs():
|
| 424 |
with gr.TabItem("📊 Summary"):
|
| 425 |
+
summary_plot_output = gr.Image(label="Calibration Methods Comparison (Error in Total PV Net Cashflow)")
|
| 426 |
|
| 427 |
with gr.TabItem("💸 Cashflow Calibration"):
|
| 428 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Results: Using Annual Cashflows as Calibration Variables")
|
| 429 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 430 |
+
cf_total_base_table_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Base Scenario (Cashflows)")
|
| 431 |
+
cf_policy_attrs_total_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Policy Attributes")
|
| 432 |
+
cf_cashflow_plot_out = gr.Image(label="Cashflow Value Comparisons (Actual vs. Estimate) Across Scenarios")
|
| 433 |
+
cf_scatter_cashflows_base_out = gr.Image(label="Scatter Plot - Per-Cluster Cashflows (Base Scenario)")
|
| 434 |
+
with gr.Accordion("Present Value Comparisons (Total)", open=False):
|
| 435 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 436 |
+
cf_pv_total_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Base Total")
|
| 437 |
+
cf_pv_total_lapse_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Lapse Stress Total")
|
| 438 |
+
cf_pv_total_mort_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Mortality Stress Total")
|
| 439 |
|
| 440 |
with gr.TabItem("👤 Policy Attribute Calibration"):
|
| 441 |
gr.Markdown("### Results: Using Policy Attributes as Calibration Variables")
|
| 442 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 443 |
+
attr_total_cf_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Base Scenario (Cashflows)")
|
| 444 |
+
attr_policy_attrs_total_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Policy Attributes")
|
| 445 |
+
attr_cashflow_plot_out = gr.Image(label="Cashflow Value Comparisons (Actual vs. Estimate) Across Scenarios")
|
| 446 |
+
attr_scatter_cashflows_base_out = gr.Image(label="Scatter Plot - Per-Cluster Cashflows (Base Scenario)")
|
| 447 |
+
with gr.Accordion("Present Value Comparisons (Total)", open=False):
|
| 448 |
+
attr_total_pv_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Base Scenario Total")
|
| 449 |
|
| 450 |
with gr.TabItem("💰 Present Value Calibration"):
|
| 451 |
+
gr.Markdown("### Results: Using Present Values (Base Scenario) as Calibration Variables")
|
| 452 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 453 |
+
pv_total_cf_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Base Scenario (Cashflows)")
|
| 454 |
+
pv_policy_attrs_total_out = gr.Dataframe(label="Overall Comparison - Policy Attributes")
|
| 455 |
+
pv_cashflow_plot_out = gr.Image(label="Cashflow Value Comparisons (Actual vs. Estimate) Across Scenarios")
|
| 456 |
+
pv_scatter_pvs_base_out = gr.Image(label="Scatter Plot - Per-Cluster Present Values (Base Scenario)")
|
| 457 |
+
with gr.Accordion("Present Value Comparisons (Total)", open=False):
|
| 458 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 459 |
+
pv_total_pv_base_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Base Total")
|
| 460 |
+
pv_total_pv_lapse_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Lapse Stress Total")
|
| 461 |
+
pv_total_pv_mort_out = gr.Dataframe(label="PVs - Mortality Stress Total")
|
| 462 |
+
|
| 463 |
+
# --- Helper function to prepare outputs ---
|
| 464 |
+
def get_all_output_components():
|
| 465 |
+
return [
|
| 466 |
+
summary_plot_output,
|
| 467 |
+
# Cashflow Calib Outputs
|
| 468 |
+
cf_total_base_table_out, cf_policy_attrs_total_out,
|
| 469 |
+
cf_cashflow_plot_out, cf_scatter_cashflows_base_out,
|
| 470 |
+
cf_pv_total_base_out, cf_pv_total_lapse_out, cf_pv_total_mort_out,
|
| 471 |
+
# Attribute Calib Outputs
|
| 472 |
+
attr_total_cf_base_out, attr_policy_attrs_total_out,
|
| 473 |
+
attr_cashflow_plot_out, attr_scatter_cashflows_base_out, attr_total_pv_base_out,
|
| 474 |
+
# PV Calib Outputs
|
| 475 |
+
pv_total_cf_base_out, pv_policy_attrs_total_out,
|
| 476 |
+
pv_cashflow_plot_out, pv_scatter_pvs_base_out,
|
| 477 |
+
pv_total_pv_base_out, pv_total_pv_lapse_out, pv_total_pv_mort_out
|
| 478 |
+
]
|
| 479 |
|
| 480 |
+
# --- Action for Analyze Button ---
|
| 481 |
+
def handle_analysis(f1, f2, f3, f4, f5, f6, f7):
|
| 482 |
+
# Ensure all files are provided (either by upload or example load)
|
| 483 |
+
files = [f1, f2, f3, f4, f5, f6, f7]
|
| 484 |
+
# Gradio File objects have a .name attribute for the temp path
|
| 485 |
+
# If they are already strings (from example load), they are paths
|
| 486 |
|
|
|
|
| 487 |
file_paths = []
|
| 488 |
+
for i, f_obj in enumerate(files):
|
| 489 |
+
if f_obj is None:
|
| 490 |
+
gr.Error(f"Missing file input for argument {i+1}. Please upload all files or load examples.")
|
| 491 |
+
# Return Nones for all output components
|
| 492 |
+
return [None] * len(get_all_output_components())
|
| 493 |
+
|
| 494 |
+
# If f_obj is a Gradio FileData object (from direct upload)
|
| 495 |
+
if hasattr(f_obj, 'name') and isinstance(f_obj.name, str):
|
| 496 |
file_paths.append(f_obj.name)
|
| 497 |
+
# If f_obj is already a string path (from example load)
|
| 498 |
+
elif isinstance(f_obj, str):
|
| 499 |
file_paths.append(f_obj)
|
| 500 |
+
else:
|
| 501 |
+
gr.Error(f"Invalid file input for argument {i+1}. Type: {type(f_obj)}")
|
| 502 |
+
return [None] * len(get_all_output_components())
|
| 503 |
+
|
| 504 |
+
|
| 505 |
+
results = process_files(*file_paths)
|
| 506 |
|
| 507 |
+
if "error" in results:
|
| 508 |
+
# Error already displayed by process_files or here
|
| 509 |
+
return [None] * len(get_all_output_components())
|
| 510 |
|
|
|
|
| 511 |
return [
|
| 512 |
+
results.get('summary_plot'),
|
| 513 |
+
# CF Calib
|
| 514 |
+
results.get('cf_total_base_table'), results.get('cf_policy_attrs_total'),
|
| 515 |
+
results.get('cf_cashflow_plot'), results.get('cf_scatter_cashflows_base'),
|
| 516 |
+
results.get('cf_pv_total_base'), results.get('cf_pv_total_lapse'), results.get('cf_pv_total_mort'),
|
| 517 |
+
# Attr Calib
|
| 518 |
+
results.get('attr_total_cf_base'), results.get('attr_policy_attrs_total'),
|
| 519 |
+
results.get('attr_cashflow_plot'), results.get('attr_scatter_cashflows_base'), results.get('attr_total_pv_base'),
|
| 520 |
+
# PV Calib
|
| 521 |
+
results.get('pv_total_cf_base'), results.get('pv_policy_attrs_total'),
|
| 522 |
+
results.get('pv_cashflow_plot'), results.get('pv_scatter_pvs_base'),
|
| 523 |
+
results.get('pv_total_pv_base'), results.get('pv_total_pv_lapse'), results.get('pv_total_pv_mort')
|
| 524 |
]
|
| 525 |
|
| 526 |
analyze_btn.click(
|
| 527 |
+
handle_analysis,
|
| 528 |
inputs=[cashflow_base_input, cashflow_lapse_input, cashflow_mort_input,
|
| 529 |
policy_data_input, pv_base_input, pv_lapse_input, pv_mort_input],
|
| 530 |
+
outputs=get_all_output_components()
|
| 531 |
)
|
| 532 |
|
| 533 |
+
# --- Action for Load Example Data Button ---
|
| 534 |
+
def load_example_files():
|
| 535 |
+
# Check if all example files exist
|
| 536 |
+
missing_files = [fp for fp in EXAMPLE_FILES.values() if not os.path.exists(fp)]
|
| 537 |
+
if missing_files:
|
| 538 |
+
gr.Error(f"Missing example data files in '{EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR}': {', '.join(missing_files)}. Please ensure they exist.")
|
| 539 |
+
return [None] * 7 # Return Nones for all file inputs
|
| 540 |
+
|
| 541 |
+
gr.Info("Example data paths loaded. Click 'Analyze Dataset'.")
|
|
|
|
| 542 |
return [
|
| 543 |
EXAMPLE_FILES["cashflow_base"], EXAMPLE_FILES["cashflow_lapse"], EXAMPLE_FILES["cashflow_mort"],
|
| 544 |
EXAMPLE_FILES["policy_data"], EXAMPLE_FILES["pv_base"], EXAMPLE_FILES["pv_lapse"],
|
| 545 |
EXAMPLE_FILES["pv_mort"]
|
| 546 |
]
|
| 547 |
+
|
| 548 |
+
load_example_btn.click(
|
| 549 |
+
load_example_files,
|
| 550 |
+
inputs=[],
|
| 551 |
+
outputs=[cashflow_base_input, cashflow_lapse_input, cashflow_mort_input,
|
| 552 |
+
policy_data_input, pv_base_input, pv_lapse_input, pv_mort_input]
|
| 553 |
+
)
|
| 554 |
+
|
| 555 |
return demo
|
| 556 |
|
| 557 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 558 |
+
# Create the eg_data directory if it doesn't exist (for testing, user should create it with files)
|
| 559 |
if not os.path.exists(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR):
|
| 560 |
+
os.makedirs(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR)
|
| 561 |
+
print(f"Created directory '{EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR}'. Please place example Excel files there.")
|
| 562 |
+
# You might want to add dummy files here for basic testing if the real files aren't present
|
| 563 |
+
# For example:
|
| 564 |
+
# with open(os.path.join(EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR, "cashflows_seriatim_10K.xlsx"), "w") as f: f.write("")
|
| 565 |
+
# ... and so on for other files, but they would be empty and cause errors in pd.read_excel.
|
| 566 |
+
# It's better to instruct the user to add the actual files.
|
| 567 |
+
print(f"Expected files in '{EXAMPLE_DATA_DIR}': {list(EXAMPLE_FILES.values())}")
|
| 568 |
+
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 569 |
|
| 570 |
demo_app = create_interface()
|
| 571 |
demo_app.launch()
|