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README.md
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emoji: 🐢
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app_file: app.py
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pinned: false
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license: mit
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---
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---
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title: TVOG Analysis Dashboard
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emoji: 🐢
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colorFrom: purple
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colorTo: yellow
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app_file: app.py
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pinned: false
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license: mit
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short_description: 'TVOG pricing: Monte Carlo vs. Black-Scholes tools.'
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---
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# TVOG Analysis Dashboard 📊
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An interactive dashboard for analyzing Time Value of Options and Guarantees (TVOG) in Variable Annuity products with Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefits (GMAB).
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[](https://huggingface.co/spaces/alidenewade/tvog-analysis-dashboard)
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## 🎯 Overview
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This dashboard provides a comprehensive comparison between **Monte Carlo simulation** and **Black-Scholes-Merton analytical solutions** for pricing variable annuity guarantees. It's designed specifically for actuaries, finance professionals, economists, and academics working in insurance and financial risk management.
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## ✨ Key Features
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### 🔧 Interactive Controls
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- **Monte Carlo Parameters**: Adjustable scenario counts (1K-50K), risk-free rates, volatility levels
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- **Product Configuration**: Customizable sum assured, policy counts, and maturity periods
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- **Model Point Analysis**: Flexible premium ranges with configurable test points
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### 📈 Four Analysis Modules
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1. **TVOG Comparison**: Side-by-side Monte Carlo vs Black-Scholes results with convergence ratios
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2. **Simulation Paths**: Account value trajectory visualization with guarantee levels
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3. **Distribution Analysis**: Statistical distributions of final values and GMAB payouts
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4. **Convergence Analysis**: Monte Carlo convergence validation against analytical solutions
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### 📊 Professional Output
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- **Results Table**: Detailed numerical comparison data
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- **Real-time Updates**: Dynamic recalculation with parameter changes
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- **Statistical Overlays**: Theoretical distributions and error metrics
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- **Export-Ready Visualizations**: High-quality plots for presentations
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## 🚀 Getting Started
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### Online Usage
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Simply click the "Open in Spaces" badge above to access the live dashboard - no installation required!
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### Local Installation
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```bash
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git clone https://huggingface.co/spaces/alidenewade/tvog-analysis-dashboard
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cd tvog-analysis-dashboard
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pip install -r requirements.txt
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python app.py
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```
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## 🔬 Technical Background
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### Mathematical Foundation
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The dashboard implements:
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- **Geometric Brownian Motion** for account value simulation: `dS/S = r·dt + σ·ε·√dt`
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- **Black-Scholes-Merton Formula** for European put option pricing
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- **Risk-Neutral Valuation** with Monte Carlo scenarios
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### Key Assumptions
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- No policy decrements (mortality/lapse rates = 0)
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- No management fees for clean comparison
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- Constant risk-free rate environment
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- Log-normal asset return distribution
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## 👥 Target Audience
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### Primary Users
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- **Actuaries**: Pricing and reserving analysis for variable annuity products
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- **Risk Managers**: Quantifying guarantee costs and capital requirements
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- **Product Developers**: Designing and testing new guarantee features
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- **Academics**: Teaching and researching financial guarantee valuation
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### Use Cases
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- **Product Pricing**: Determine fair value of GMAB guarantees
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- **Model Validation**: Compare simulation results with analytical benchmarks
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- **Sensitivity Analysis**: Test impact of parameter changes on guarantee costs
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- **Educational Tool**: Demonstrate Monte Carlo vs analytical pricing methods
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## 📚 Methodology
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### Monte Carlo Simulation
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- Generates thousands of risk-neutral scenarios
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- Simulates account value paths using geometric Brownian motion
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- Calculates present value of guarantee payouts at maturity
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- Provides statistical confidence through large sample sizes
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### Black-Scholes-Merton Benchmark
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- Analytical solution for European put option pricing
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- Provides exact theoretical value for comparison
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- Validates Monte Carlo convergence and accuracy
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- Offers computational efficiency for sensitivity analysis
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## 🎛️ Parameter Guide
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### Critical Parameters
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- **Scenarios**: Higher counts improve accuracy but increase computation time
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- **Volatility**: Key driver of option value - higher volatility increases TVOG
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- **Risk-Free Rate**: Affects both drift and discounting of future payouts
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- **Moneyness**: Initial account value relative to guarantee level
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### Recommended Settings
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- **For Quick Analysis**: 5,000-10,000 scenarios
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- **For Production**: 50,000+ scenarios
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- **For Presentations**: 10,000 scenarios (good balance of accuracy/speed)
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## 📖 Educational Value
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This dashboard serves as an excellent educational tool for:
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- **Understanding Monte Carlo Methods** in financial modeling
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- **Comparing Simulation vs Analytical** approaches
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- **Visualizing Financial Risk** through interactive plots
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- **Learning Option Pricing Theory** in insurance contexts
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## ���� Contributing
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Found a bug or have suggestions? Feel free to:
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- Open an issue on the repository
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- Submit a pull request with improvements
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- Share feedback through the Hugging Face community tab
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## 📄 License
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This project is open source and available under the MIT License.
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## 🙏 Acknowledgments
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Based on the lifelib savings library example, which demonstrates advanced actuarial modeling techniques for variable annuity products.
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---
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**Built with ❤️ for the actuarial and finance community**
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*For technical support or collaboration opportunities, connect through Hugging Face!*
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Check out the configuration reference at https://huggingface.co/docs/hub/spaces-config-reference
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