File size: 4,059 Bytes
ee888e1 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 | // FRED macro/rates bet templates (Phase 2 / #5525 — the independence slice:
// no market price exists to copy, so this is the structurally credible proof
// of derived calibration).
//
// Source feeds: `economic:fred:v1:<SERIES>:0` (exact, `:0`-suffixed — the
// resolution allowlist is an exact-match Set; seed-economy.mjs writes these
// keys with shape `{series:{observations:[{date,value},...]}}` per #5098).
// FRED marks missing values with '.' — observations must be filtered to
// finite numerics. Monthly observations are dated the FIRST of the reference
// month and publish ~2 weeks after the month ends, so deadlines carry the
// calendar-derived settlement graces in _forecast-resolution-eval.mjs (KTD4).
import { FRED_SERIES } from './_fred-series.mjs';
// Flat-week floor so a no-move series still yields a non-trivial threshold.
const MIN_MOVE_FRACTION = 0.005;
// Series list + derived keys live in _fred-series.mjs (shared with the eval's
// cadence-grace sets); re-exported here so template consumers keep one import.
export { FRED_SERIES, FRED_FEED_KEYS } from './_fred-series.mjs';
// Latest finite observations, ascending by date. Pure.
export function finiteObservations(feed) {
const observations = feed?.series?.observations;
if (!Array.isArray(observations)) return [];
return observations
.map((o) => ({ date: o?.date, value: Number(o?.value) }))
.filter((o) => o.date && Number.isFinite(o.value));
}
function buildSeriesTemplate({ series, feedKey, subject, unit, horizonMs }) {
return {
id: `macro:${series}`,
feedKey,
domain: 'macro',
extractMetric(feed) {
const obs = finiteObservations(feed);
const latest = obs[obs.length - 1];
const previous = obs[obs.length - 2];
// Rates/indices are strictly positive; a 0/negative read is a broken
// feed (and a zero baseline would mint a guaranteed-YES bet).
if (!latest || !(latest.value > 0)) return null;
return {
subject,
metricName: series,
value: latest.value,
previous: previous && Number.isFinite(previous.value) ? previous.value : null,
unit,
asOf: latest.date,
};
},
horizonPolicy({ nowMs }) {
return nowMs + horizonMs;
},
buildResolutionSpec({ metric, deadlineMs }) {
const { value, previous } = metric;
const lastMove = Number.isFinite(previous) ? value - previous : 0;
const floor = Math.abs(value) * MIN_MOVE_FRACTION;
const magnitude = Math.max(Math.abs(lastMove), floor);
if (!(magnitude > 0)) return null;
const wantUp = lastMove >= 0;
const threshold = round(wantUp ? value + magnitude : value - magnitude);
return {
kind: 'hard',
metricKey: `${feedKey}|value(metric==${series})`,
operator: 'crosses',
threshold,
baselineValue: round(value),
window: 'at-deadline',
deadline: deadlineMs,
sourceFeed: feedKey,
question: buildQuestion(metric, wantUp, threshold, deadlineMs),
};
},
buildQuestion({ spec }) {
return spec.question;
},
buildTitle({ metric, spec }) {
const dir = spec.threshold >= spec.baselineValue ? 'rise' : 'fall';
return `${capitalize(metric.subject)}: ${dir} to ${spec.threshold} ${metric.unit}?`;
},
userValueScore() {
return series === 'FEDFUNDS' || series === 'UNRATE' ? 0.7 : 0.6;
},
};
}
export const MACRO_BET_TEMPLATES = FRED_SERIES.map(buildSeriesTemplate);
function buildQuestion(metric, wantUp, threshold, deadlineMs) {
const dir = wantUp ? 'rise to at least' : 'fall to at most';
return `Will ${metric.subject} ${dir} ${threshold} ${metric.unit} by ${isoDate(deadlineMs)}?`;
}
function isoDate(ms) {
return new Date(ms).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
}
function capitalize(text) {
const s = String(text || '');
return s.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + s.slice(1);
}
function round(value) {
if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return value;
return Math.round(value * 1_000_000) / 1_000_000;
}
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