File size: 3,561 Bytes
ee888e1 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 | // Bet-template registry core (Phase 1 / #5233 re-engine).
//
// A "bet template" turns one feed into a crisp, resolution-bound forecast.
// Adding a domain = adding templates, not a hand-coded detector. Every template
// carries its own metric extractor, question builder, and resolution-spec
// builder (reusing the #4976 spec contract) so a generated bet is resolvable by
// construction. Pure + injected: no Redis, R2, or wall-clock reads (nowMs in).
//
// Template shape:
// {
// id: string // stable slug, e.g. 'energy:crude-inventory'
// feedKey: string // the feed this template reads
// domain: string // forecast domain bucket
// extractMetric: (feedData, {nowMs}) => metric | null // null = feed absent/unusable → skip
// horizonPolicy: (ctx) => deadlineMs // when the bet resolves
// buildResolutionSpec: (ctx) => spec // #4976 hard/judged spec
// buildQuestion: (ctx) => string // crisp YES criterion
// buildTitle?: (ctx) => string // display title (defaults to question)
// userValueScore?: (ctx) => number // 0..1 ranking signal
// }
// ctx passed to horizon/spec/question/title/score:
// { template, metric, feed, nowMs, deadlineMs, spec }
export function generateBets(templates, feedsByKey, nowMs) {
const bets = [];
const seen = new Set();
for (const template of Array.isArray(templates) ? templates : []) {
const feed = feedsByKey?.[template.feedKey];
let metric = null;
try {
metric = template.extractMetric(feed, { nowMs });
} catch {
metric = null;
}
if (!metric) continue; // feed absent or metric not extractable → no bet
const baseCtx = { template, metric, feed, nowMs };
let deadlineMs;
let spec;
let question;
try {
deadlineMs = Number(template.horizonPolicy({ ...baseCtx }));
if (!Number.isFinite(deadlineMs)) continue;
const ctx = { ...baseCtx, deadlineMs };
spec = template.buildResolutionSpec(ctx);
if (!spec) continue;
question = template.buildQuestion({ ...ctx, spec });
} catch {
continue;
}
if (!question || typeof question !== 'string') continue;
const ctx = { ...baseCtx, deadlineMs, spec };
const id = String(template.buildId ? template.buildId(ctx) : `${template.id}:${metric.subject}`);
const dedupeKey = `${id}@${spec.deadline}`;
if (seen.has(dedupeKey)) continue;
seen.add(dedupeKey);
// Optional per-template extras (e.g. calibration.marketPrice, marketSlug for
// the prediction-market settlement path). Spread FIRST so extras can never
// clobber the core bet contract fields below.
let extras = {};
if (template.decorate) {
try { extras = template.decorate(ctx) || {}; } catch { extras = {}; }
}
bets.push({
...extras,
id,
domain: template.domain,
title: template.buildTitle ? String(template.buildTitle(ctx)) : question,
question,
probability: null, // set downstream by base-rate (Phase 1) / ensemble (Phase 2)
resolution: spec,
generationOrigin: 'bet_engine',
userValueScore: clamp01(template.userValueScore ? Number(template.userValueScore(ctx)) : 0.5),
generatedAt: nowMs,
feedKey: template.feedKey,
templateId: template.id,
});
}
return bets;
}
function clamp01(value) {
if (!Number.isFinite(value)) return 0.5;
return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, value));
}
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