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{
"name": "well_grounded_conflict",
"forecast": {
"domain": "conflict",
"region": "Iran",
"title": "Escalation risk: Iran",
"probability": 0.71,
"confidence": 0.62,
"timeHorizon": "7d",
"trend": "rising",
"signals": [
{ "type": "cii", "value": "Iran CII 87 (critical)", "weight": 0.4 },
{ "type": "ucdp", "value": "3 UCDP conflict events", "weight": 0.3 },
{ "type": "theater", "value": "Middle East theater posture elevated", "weight": 0.2 }
],
"newsContext": [
"Iran military drills intensify after border incident",
"Regional officials warn of retaliation risk"
],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will Iran conflict escalate before July?",
"marketPrice": 0.58,
"drift": 0.04,
"source": "polymarket"
},
"cascades": [
{ "domain": "market", "effect": "commodity price shock", "probability": 0.41 }
]
},
"thresholds": {
"overallMin": 0.7,
"groundingMin": 0.6
}
},
{
"name": "well_grounded_supply_chain",
"forecast": {
"domain": "supply_chain",
"region": "Red Sea",
"title": "Shipping disruption: Red Sea",
"probability": 0.64,
"confidence": 0.57,
"timeHorizon": "7d",
"trend": "rising",
"signals": [
{ "type": "chokepoint", "value": "Red Sea disruption detected", "weight": 0.5 },
{ "type": "gps_jamming", "value": "GPS interference near Red Sea", "weight": 0.2 }
],
"newsContext": [
"Red Sea shipping disruption worsens after new attacks",
"Freight rates react to Red Sea rerouting"
],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will oil close above $90?",
"marketPrice": 0.62,
"drift": 0.03,
"source": "polymarket"
},
"cascades": [
{ "domain": "market", "effect": "supply shortage pricing", "probability": 0.38 }
]
},
"thresholds": {
"overallMin": 0.66,
"groundingMin": 0.6
}
},
{
"name": "thin_generic_market",
"forecast": {
"domain": "market",
"region": "Europe",
"title": "Energy stress: Europe",
"probability": 0.69,
"confidence": 0.58,
"timeHorizon": "30d",
"trend": "stable",
"signals": [
{ "type": "prediction_market", "value": "Broad market stress chatter", "weight": 0.2 }
],
"newsContext": [],
"cascades": []
},
"thresholds": {
"overallMax": 0.55
}
}
]
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