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{
"name": "red_sea_shipping_disruption_2024_01_15",
"eventDate": "2024-01-15",
"description": "Red Sea disruption risk hardens after rerouting and interference signals broaden.",
"priorForecast": {
"domain": "supply_chain",
"region": "Red Sea",
"title": "Shipping disruption: Red Sea",
"probability": 0.52,
"confidence": 0.54,
"timeHorizon": "7d",
"signals": [
{ "type": "chokepoint", "value": "Red Sea disruption detected", "weight": 0.5 }
],
"newsContext": [
"Shipping firms monitor Red Sea route risk"
],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will oil close above $90?",
"marketPrice": 0.54,
"drift": 0.02,
"source": "polymarket"
}
},
"forecast": {
"domain": "supply_chain",
"region": "Red Sea",
"title": "Shipping disruption: Red Sea",
"probability": 0.68,
"confidence": 0.59,
"timeHorizon": "7d",
"signals": [
{ "type": "chokepoint", "value": "Red Sea disruption detected", "weight": 0.5 },
{ "type": "gps_jamming", "value": "GPS interference near Red Sea", "weight": 0.2 }
],
"newsContext": [
"Shipping firms monitor Red Sea route risk",
"Freight rates react to Red Sea rerouting"
],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will oil close above $90?",
"marketPrice": 0.67,
"drift": 0.01,
"source": "polymarket"
},
"cascades": [
{ "domain": "market", "effect": "supply shortage pricing", "probability": 0.38 }
]
},
"thresholds": {
"overallMin": 0.72,
"groundingMin": 0.65,
"trend": "rising",
"changeSummaryIncludes": ["rose from 52% to 68%"],
"changeItemsInclude": [
"New signal: GPS interference near Red Sea",
"New reporting: Freight rates react to Red Sea rerouting",
"Market moved from 54% to 67%"
]
}
},
{
"name": "iran_exchange_2024_04_14",
"eventDate": "2024-04-14",
"description": "Iran escalation risk jumps as conflict-event and theater signals stack on top of already-high instability.",
"priorForecast": {
"domain": "conflict",
"region": "Iran",
"title": "Escalation risk: Iran",
"probability": 0.46,
"confidence": 0.55,
"timeHorizon": "7d",
"signals": [
{ "type": "cii", "value": "Iran CII 79 (high)", "weight": 0.4 }
],
"newsContext": [
"Iran military drills intensify after border incident"
],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will Iran conflict escalate before July?",
"marketPrice": 0.45,
"drift": 0.03,
"source": "polymarket"
}
},
"forecast": {
"domain": "conflict",
"region": "Iran",
"title": "Escalation risk: Iran",
"probability": 0.74,
"confidence": 0.64,
"timeHorizon": "7d",
"signals": [
{ "type": "cii", "value": "Iran CII 79 (high)", "weight": 0.4 },
{ "type": "ucdp", "value": "3 UCDP conflict events", "weight": 0.3 },
{ "type": "theater", "value": "Middle East theater posture elevated", "weight": 0.2 }
],
"newsContext": [
"Iran military drills intensify after border incident",
"Regional officials warn of retaliation risk"
],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will Iran conflict escalate before July?",
"marketPrice": 0.71,
"drift": 0.03,
"source": "polymarket"
},
"cascades": [
{ "domain": "market", "effect": "commodity price shock", "probability": 0.41 }
]
},
"thresholds": {
"overallMin": 0.78,
"groundingMin": 0.65,
"trend": "rising",
"changeSummaryIncludes": ["rose from 46% to 74%"],
"changeItemsInclude": [
"New signal: 3 UCDP conflict events",
"New reporting: Regional officials warn of retaliation risk",
"Market moved from 45% to 71%"
]
}
},
{
"name": "europe_energy_stress_eases_2025_02_01",
"eventDate": "2025-02-01",
"description": "A softer market path and thinner corroboration pull a European energy stress forecast down.",
"priorForecast": {
"domain": "market",
"region": "Europe",
"title": "Energy stress: Europe",
"probability": 0.64,
"confidence": 0.58,
"timeHorizon": "30d",
"signals": [
{ "type": "prediction_market", "value": "EU gas price stress remains elevated", "weight": 0.25 }
],
"newsContext": [
"European gas storage draw accelerates"
],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will EU gas prices spike this month?",
"marketPrice": 0.59,
"drift": 0.02,
"source": "polymarket"
}
},
"forecast": {
"domain": "market",
"region": "Europe",
"title": "Energy stress: Europe",
"probability": 0.49,
"confidence": 0.54,
"timeHorizon": "30d",
"signals": [
{ "type": "prediction_market", "value": "EU gas price stress remains elevated", "weight": 0.25 }
],
"newsContext": [],
"calibration": {
"marketTitle": "Will EU gas prices spike this month?",
"marketPrice": 0.44,
"drift": 0.05,
"source": "polymarket"
}
},
"thresholds": {
"overallMax": 0.58,
"trend": "falling",
"changeSummaryIncludes": ["fell from 64% to 49%"],
"changeItemsInclude": [
"Market moved from 59% to 44%"
]
}
}
]
|