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| - indicator: govRevenuePct |
| dimension: macroFiscal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.40 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: IMF |
| seriesId: GGR_G01_GDP_PT |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGR_G01_GDP_PT@FM/ |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Government revenue % GDP is the policy-response headroom a state can deploy during a fiscal shock; higher = more ability to absorb. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Goalpost 5-45 is probably too wide at the top; Nordic revenue/GDP ≥ 50% saturates. Review in PR 4 goalpost pass. |
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| - indicator: debtGrowthRate |
| dimension: macroFiscal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: National debt databases (IMF + WB cross-source) |
| seriesId: TBD |
| seriesUrl: TBD |
| coveragePct: 0.80 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Mixed (per-source) |
| mechanismTestRationale: Rising debt growth indicates deteriorating fiscal trajectory and reduced capacity to finance a shock response. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
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| - indicator: currentAccountPct |
| dimension: macroFiscal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: IMF |
| seriesId: BCA_NGDPD |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/BCA_NGDPD@WEO/ |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Current account surplus indicates external-payments resilience; deficit indicates vulnerability to external-finance shocks. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
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| - indicator: unemploymentPct |
| dimension: macroFiscal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: IMF |
| seriesId: LUR |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/LUR@WEO/ |
| coveragePct: 0.68 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Unemployment rate measures labor-market slack and reduced fiscal absorption capacity during shocks. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active macroFiscal Enrichment scorer input; included in the weighted dimension blend at 0.15. |
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| - indicator: householdDebtService |
| dimension: macroFiscal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.05 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: BIS |
| seriesId: Household debt service ratio |
| seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/DSR |
| coveragePct: 0.18 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Household debt service burden measures private-sector balance-sheet strain that can amplify banking and fiscal shocks. |
| constructStatus: regional-only |
| reviewNotes: Active macroFiscal Enrichment scorer input for curated BIS economies; conservative imputation applies outside coverage. |
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| - indicator: inflationStability |
| dimension: currencyExternal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.60 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: IMF |
| seriesId: PCPIPCH |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/ |
| coveragePct: 0.83 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Inflation stability measures currency purchasing-power shock risk; the scorer rewards the 1-3% target band and penalizes deflation or high inflation. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active currencyExternal Core scorer input after PR 3 §3.5; paired with reserves adequacy at 0.40. |
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| - indicator: fxReservesAdequacy |
| dimension: currencyExternal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.40 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank |
| seriesId: FI.RES.TOTL.MO |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Reserves in months of imports directly measures immediate external-finance cushion. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active currencyExternal Core scorer input after PR 3 §3.5; paired with inflationStability at 0.60. |
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| - indicator: fxVolatility |
| dimension: currencyExternal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.60 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: BIS Data Portal |
| seriesId: Broad Effective Exchange Rate |
| seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/EER |
| coveragePct: 0.30 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY |
| mechanismTestRationale: FX volatility measures monetary-shock transmission risk. |
| constructStatus: regional-only |
| reviewNotes: Experimental/enrichment-only registry row after PR 3 §3.5; BIS EER covers only about 64 economies and scoreCurrencyExternal no longer reads it. |
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| - indicator: fxDeviation |
| dimension: currencyExternal |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: BIS Data Portal |
| seriesId: EER deviation from equilibrium |
| seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/EER |
| coveragePct: 0.30 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY |
| mechanismTestRationale: EER deviation from equilibrium proxies mis-aligned exchange rates that create abrupt-correction risk. |
| constructStatus: regional-only |
| reviewNotes: Experimental/enrichment-only registry row after PR 3 §3.5; BIS EER covers only about 64 economies and scoreCurrencyExternal no longer reads it. |
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| - indicator: tradeRestrictions |
| dimension: tradePolicy |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: WTO |
| seriesId: Trade Monitoring Database |
| seriesUrl: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/trade_monitoring_e.htm |
| coveragePct: 0.75 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: WTO restriction severity directly measures market-access friction (low=0, moderate=1, high=2; lower is better). |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
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| - indicator: tradeBarriers |
| dimension: tradePolicy |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: WTO |
| seriesId: Trade Barriers Notifications |
| seriesUrl: https://tradebarriers.wto.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.70 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: Notified trade barriers (not yet in force) indicate near-term market-access risk. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
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| - indicator: appliedTariffRate |
| dimension: tradePolicy |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.40 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank / WITS |
| seriesId: TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Applied tariff rates measure cost of trade restriction on imports. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
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| - indicator: shortTermExternalDebtPctGni |
| dimension: financialSystemExposure |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.35 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: World Bank IDS |
| seriesId: DT.DOD.DSTC.IR.ZS × DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.56 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Short-term external debt as % of GNI measures rollover funding pressure against the IMF Article IV vulnerability threshold. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active financialSystemExposure Enrichment scorer input. |
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| - indicator: bisLbsXborderPctGdp |
| dimension: financialSystemExposure |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics |
| seriesId: By-parent cross-border claims as % GDP |
| seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/CBS |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: CBS by-parent foreign claims as % GDP measure external financial-channel exposure; the scorer applies a U-shape penalty for isolation and over-exposure. |
| constructStatus: regional-only |
| reviewNotes: Active financialSystemExposure Enrichment scorer input from curated BIS reporters. |
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| - indicator: fatfListingStatus |
| dimension: financialSystemExposure |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: FATF |
| seriesId: AML/CFT listing status |
| seriesUrl: https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/countries/black-and-grey-lists.html |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: FATF status measures direct financial-system access risk; compliant countries score above gray-list and black-list countries. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active financialSystemExposure Core scorer input. |
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| - indicator: financialCenterRedundancy |
| dimension: financialSystemExposure |
| domain: economic |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics |
| seriesId: Count of by-parent reporters with non-trivial claims |
| seriesUrl: https://data.bis.org/topics/CBS |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Distinct CBS by-parent counterparties measure redundancy in financial-center links and offset single-counterparty exposure. |
| constructStatus: regional-only |
| reviewNotes: Active financialSystemExposure Enrichment scorer input from curated BIS reporters. |
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|
| - indicator: cyberThreats |
| dimension: cyberDigital |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.45 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Cyber threat feeds (mixed Western-origin) |
| seriesId: discovery-day decayed severity-weighted count (critical 3×, high 2×, medium 1×, low 0.5×) |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.70 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Proprietary feeds (aggregated) |
| mechanismTestRationale: Discovery-day decayed severity-weighted cyber threat count measures ongoing cyber-attack pressure while dampening isolated stale bursts. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Western-feed bias; non-English cyber activity under-represented. PR 4 §4.8 tracks this. |
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| - indicator: internetOutages |
| dimension: cyberDigital |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.35 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Cloudflare Radar + internal monitoring |
| seriesId: Outage penalty (total 4×, major 2×, partial 1×) |
| seriesUrl: https://radar.cloudflare.com/ |
| coveragePct: 0.95 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Internet outages directly measure digital-infrastructure availability under current stress. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
|
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| - indicator: gpsJamming |
| dimension: cyberDigital |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: GPSJam |
| seriesId: Hex penalty (high 3×, medium 1×) |
| seriesUrl: https://gpsjam.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.95 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open data |
| mechanismTestRationale: GPS jamming intensity measures electronic-warfare / navigation-disruption exposure. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
|
|
| - indicator: logisticsPerformanceIndex |
| dimension: logisticsSupply |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: TBD |
| direction: higher-better |
| source: World Bank LPI |
| seriesId: LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
| seriesUrl: https://lpi.worldbank.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Logistics Performance Index measures functional capacity to move goods; directly shocks during supply-chain disruptions. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Legacy catalog alias only; active logisticsSupply parity is represented by roadsPavedLogistics, shippingStress, and transitDisruption. |
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|
| - indicator: roadsPavedLogistics |
| dimension: logisticsSupply |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.50 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank Open Data |
| seriesId: IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Paved-road share measures physical logistics capacity for moving goods during supply-chain disruption. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active logisticsSupply Core scorer input. |
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| - indicator: shippingStress |
| dimension: logisticsSupply |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Supply-chain monitor |
| seriesId: supply_chain:shipping_stress:v1 |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.88 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open with attribution |
| mechanismTestRationale: Shipping stress measures current maritime logistics shock pressure. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active logisticsSupply Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: transitDisruption |
| dimension: logisticsSupply |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Supply-chain monitor |
| seriesId: supply_chain:transit-summaries:v1 |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.88 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open with attribution |
| mechanismTestRationale: Transit-corridor disruption measures near-term goods-movement friction through disruption percentage and incident counts. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active logisticsSupply Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: infrastructureSubcomponents |
| dimension: infrastructure |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: TBD |
| direction: higher-better |
| source: World Bank + WEF Global Competitiveness |
| seriesId: Composite |
| seriesUrl: TBD |
| coveragePct: 0.80 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Mixed |
| mechanismTestRationale: Physical infrastructure quality is the baseline capacity for delivering services during normal and crisis periods. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Legacy catalog alias only; active infrastructure parity is represented by electricityAccess, roadsPavedInfra, infraOutages, and broadband. |
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| - indicator: electricityAccess |
| dimension: infrastructure |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank Open Data |
| seriesId: EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
| coveragePct: 0.98 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Electricity access measures baseline infrastructure reach for resilient public and commercial service delivery. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active infrastructure Core scorer input. |
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| - indicator: roadsPavedInfra |
| dimension: infrastructure |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank Open Data |
| seriesId: IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Paved-road share measures physical infrastructure quality for continuity of service delivery and goods movement. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active infrastructure Core scorer input. |
|
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| - indicator: infraOutages |
| dimension: infrastructure |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Cloudflare Radar + internal monitoring |
| seriesId: Outage penalty (total 4×, major 2×, partial 1×) |
| seriesUrl: https://radar.cloudflare.com/ |
| coveragePct: 0.88 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Infrastructure outage events measure service-availability stress under current operating conditions. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active infrastructure Core scorer input. |
|
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| - indicator: broadband |
| dimension: infrastructure |
| domain: infrastructure |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank Open Data |
| seriesId: IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: open-data |
| mechanismTestRationale: Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people measure baseline digital infrastructure reach for resilient public and commercial service delivery. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active infrastructure Core scorer input. Coverage is above the 70% coverage-influence floor and the Core tier floor. |
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| - indicator: dependency |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: lower-better |
| source: IEA (via static seed) |
| seriesId: Energy import dependency (%) |
| seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser |
| coveragePct: 0.50 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Share of energy consumption that is imported; direct supply-shock exposure. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 replaces with World Bank EG.IMP.CONS.ZS (better coverage) as part of importedFossilDependence composite. |
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| - indicator: gasShare |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.12 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: IEA World Energy Balances via static seed |
| seriesId: Natural gas share of primary energy |
| seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: CURRENT SCORER applies this as a vulnerability (lower-better) but it CONFLATES fossil-dominance with fossil-import-dependence. Domestic gas is a resilience asset, not a vulnerability. |
| constructStatus: wealth-proxy |
| reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 removes as standalone input; folds into importedFossilDependence under power-system framing. |
|
|
| - indicator: coalShare |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.08 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: IEA World Energy Balances via static seed |
| seriesId: Coal share of primary energy |
| seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Same concern as gasShare — penalty is climate-frame, not resilience-frame. Fails mechanism test under absolute-resilience contract. |
| constructStatus: wealth-proxy |
| reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.2 removes. |
|
|
| - indicator: renewShare |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.05 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: IEA / World Bank |
| seriesId: EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Share of electricity from renewables, proxies low-carbon-firm-generation capacity (for hydro/geothermal) and diversity-of-supply (for wind/solar). |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.3 collapses this legacy input into lowCarbonGenerationShare; the active replacement now uses OWID's pre-aggregated low-carbon electricity share. |
|
|
| - indicator: storageStress |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.10 |
| direction: lower-better |
| source: GIE AGSI+ |
| seriesId: EU gas storage fill % (per country) |
| seriesUrl: https://agsi.gie.eu/ |
| coveragePct: 0.15 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: EU gas storage fill directly measures winter-heating-shock buffer. European-only platform. |
| constructStatus: regional-only |
| reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.5 renames to euGasStorageStress and scopes to EU-only (weight 0 for non-EU). |
|
|
| - indicator: energyPriceStress |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Energy prices + fossil-electricity exposure composite |
| seriesId: Derived |
| seriesUrl: economic:energy:v1:all |
| coveragePct: 1.00 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Public-domain |
| mechanismTestRationale: Combines energy-price shocks with import-exposure to measure price-shock transmission. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active energy-v2 Core scorer input. Weight increased from legacy 0.10 to 0.15; exposure is derived from fossil share of electricity generation under the power-system framing. |
|
|
| - indicator: electricityConsumption |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: World Bank |
| seriesId: EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2022 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: FAILS the mechanism test. Per-capita electricity consumption tracks GDP per capita; it is a level-of-load measure not a resilience mechanism. IEA energy-security framing treats EFFICIENCY (lower load for same output) as resilience, which this indicator inversely rewards. |
| constructStatus: wealth-proxy |
| reviewNotes: PR 1 §3.1 removes. Replaced with powerLossesPct (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), reserveMarginPct (IEA), and accessToElectricityPct (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) moved to infrastructure domain. |
|
|
| - indicator: importedFossilDependence |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.35 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank + static net-import dependency seed |
| seriesId: EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS × max(EG.IMP.CONS.ZS, 0) / 100 |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
| coveragePct: 0.97 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Measures imported fossil exposure in the power system while not penalizing domestic fossil producers as import-dependent. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active energy-v2 Core scorer input. Replaces standalone energyImportDependency + gasShare + coalShare under the Option B power-system framing. |
|
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| - indicator: lowCarbonGenerationShare |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: OWID / Ember / Energy Institute |
| seriesId: share-electricity-low-carbon |
| seriesUrl: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-low-carbon |
| coveragePct: 0.97 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Credits low-carbon electricity generation from renewables plus nuclear; OWID renewables already include hydropower, avoiding hydro omission or double-counting. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active energy-v2 Core scorer input. Absorbs legacy renewShare and adds nuclear credit through the pre-aggregated OWID low-carbon electricity share. |
|
|
| - indicator: powerLossesPct |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank |
| seriesId: EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Transmission and distribution losses directly measure grid integrity. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active energy-v2 Core scorer input. Temporarily absorbs reserveMarginPct's deferred 0.10 share until an IEA reserve-margin seeder lands. |
|
|
| - indicator: euGasStorageStress |
| dimension: energy |
| domain: energy |
| weight: 0.10 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: GIE AGSI+ |
| seriesId: EU gas storage fill % (per country) |
| seriesUrl: https://agsi.gie.eu/ |
| coveragePct: 0.15 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: EU gas storage fill directly measures winter-heating-shock buffer for countries where the regional source applies. |
| constructStatus: regional-only |
| reviewNotes: Active energy-v2 Enrichment scorer input. Scored only for EU gas-storage countries; non-EU countries contribute null, not 0. |
|
|
| |
|
|
| - indicator: wgiComposite |
| dimension: governanceInstitutional |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 1.0 |
| direction: higher-better |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Voice/Accountability, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, Control of Corruption |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.98 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: WGI subscores measure state capacity to design and enforce policy response to shocks. Passes the mechanism test conditionally — the composite is a direct policy-response-capacity signal. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Legacy catalog alias only; active governanceInstitutional parity is represented by the six WGI subscore rows below. |
|
|
| - indicator: wgiVoiceAccountability |
| dimension: governanceInstitutional |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.16666666666666666 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Voice and Accountability |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Public-domain |
| mechanismTestRationale: Voice and Accountability measures civic accountability capacity that supports policy legitimacy during shocks. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active governanceInstitutional Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: wgiPoliticalStability |
| dimension: governanceInstitutional |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.16666666666666666 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Political Stability and Absence of Violence |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Public-domain |
| mechanismTestRationale: Political Stability measures institutional continuity and absence-of-violence capacity under shock conditions. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active governanceInstitutional Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: wgiGovernmentEffectiveness |
| dimension: governanceInstitutional |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.16666666666666666 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Government Effectiveness |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Public-domain |
| mechanismTestRationale: Government Effectiveness measures administrative capacity to deliver services and execute policy response. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active governanceInstitutional Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: wgiRegulatoryQuality |
| dimension: governanceInstitutional |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.16666666666666666 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Regulatory Quality |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Public-domain |
| mechanismTestRationale: Regulatory Quality measures policy design capacity that supports resilient markets and public systems. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active governanceInstitutional Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: wgiRuleOfLaw |
| dimension: governanceInstitutional |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.16666666666666666 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Rule of Law |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Public-domain |
| mechanismTestRationale: Rule of Law measures enforcement predictability and institutional trust during shocks. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active governanceInstitutional Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: wgiControlOfCorruption |
| dimension: governanceInstitutional |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.16666666666666666 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Control of Corruption |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.96 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Public-domain |
| mechanismTestRationale: Control of Corruption measures leakage and capture risk in policy-response capacity. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active governanceInstitutional Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: gpiScore |
| dimension: socialCohesion |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.55 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: Institute for Economics and Peace |
| seriesId: Global Peace Index |
| seriesUrl: https://www.visionofhumanity.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.75 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: GPI measures internal conflict, militarization, and external conflict intensity — direct social-cohesion-shock exposure. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active socialCohesion Enrichment scorer input; known Western-democracy bias in GPI methodology. |
|
|
| - indicator: displacementTotal |
| dimension: socialCohesion |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: UNHCR |
| seriesId: totalDisplaced |
| seriesUrl: https://data.unhcr.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.95 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: "Total displaced persons directly measures ongoing forced-migration pressure; the live scorer uses log10 absolute displaced-person counts." |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active socialCohesion Core scorer input; not population-normalized and no longer documented as the retired displacementMetric alias. |
|
|
| - indicator: unrestEvents |
| dimension: socialCohesion |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Internal unrest seed (cross-source signals + UCDP) |
| seriesId: unrestCount + sqrt(fatalities) |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Mixed |
| mechanismTestRationale: Active unrest events measure current social-cohesion stress. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active socialCohesion Core scorer input; event counts divide by max(populationMillions, 0.5) in the live scorer. |
|
|
| - indicator: borderSecuritySubs |
| dimension: borderSecurity |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: TBD |
| direction: composite |
| source: Composite (UNHCR displacement + UCDP conflict + governance) |
| seriesId: Derived |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.80 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Mixed |
| mechanismTestRationale: Border-security composite captures cross-border shock transmission exposure. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Legacy catalog alias only; active borderSecurity parity is represented by ucdpConflict and displacementHosted. |
|
|
| - indicator: ucdpConflict |
| dimension: borderSecurity |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.65 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: UCDP |
| seriesId: Armed conflict events / fatalities |
| seriesUrl: https://ucdp.uu.se/ |
| coveragePct: 0.87 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Research-only |
| mechanismTestRationale: UCDP conflict intensity measures armed-conflict event pressure and fatalities as a direct continuity shock. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active borderSecurity Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: displacementHosted |
| dimension: borderSecurity |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.35 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: UNHCR |
| seriesId: hosted / total displaced persons |
| seriesUrl: https://data.unhcr.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: Hosted displaced-person pressure measures refugee and forced-migration stress on state services and borders. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active borderSecurity Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: rsfPressFreedom |
| dimension: informationCognitive |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.55 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Reporters Sans Frontieres |
| seriesId: Press Freedom Index |
| seriesUrl: https://rsf.org/en/index |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: open-attribution |
| mechanismTestRationale: RSF press-freedom risk directly measures information-environment fragility and independent-verification constraints; lower RSF score is better. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
|
|
| - indicator: languageNormalizedSocialVelocity |
| dimension: informationCognitive |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: TBD |
| direction: composite |
| source: Reddit + cross-source + internal language-coverage-weighting |
| seriesId: Internal |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.95 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Mixed |
| mechanismTestRationale: Language-normalized social-information velocity measures information-shock propagation speed adjusted for source-density bias. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Legacy catalog alias only; active informationCognitive parity is represented by rsfPressFreedom, socialVelocity, and newsThreatScore. |
|
|
| - indicator: socialVelocity |
| dimension: informationCognitive |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: Reddit social monitor |
| seriesId: intelligence:social:reddit:v1 |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.88 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open with attribution |
| mechanismTestRationale: Social velocity measures information-shock propagation speed after language-coverage weighting. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active informationCognitive Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: newsThreatScore |
| dimension: informationCognitive |
| domain: social-governance |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: AI news threat summary |
| seriesId: news:threat:summary:v1 |
| seriesUrl: Internal seed |
| coveragePct: 0.88 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open with attribution |
| mechanismTestRationale: Threat-weighted news intensity measures current information-environment stress. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active informationCognitive Core scorer input. |
|
|
| |
|
|
| - indicator: physiciansPer1k |
| dimension: healthPublicService |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: WHO Global Health Observatory |
| seriesId: HWF_0001 |
| seriesUrl: https://www.who.int/data/gho |
| coveragePct: 0.99 |
| lastObservedYear: 2022 |
| license: WHO public-domain/open-data |
| mechanismTestRationale: Physician density measures clinical workforce capacity available for routine service delivery and surge response. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active healthPublicService Core scorer input. Static seed converts WHO's per-10,000 value to physicians per 1,000 before scoring. |
|
|
| - indicator: healthExpPerCapitaUsd |
| dimension: healthPublicService |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: WHO Global Health Observatory |
| seriesId: GHED_CHE_pc_US_SHA2011 |
| seriesUrl: https://www.who.int/data/gho |
| coveragePct: 0.99 |
| lastObservedYear: 2022 |
| license: WHO public-domain/open-data |
| mechanismTestRationale: Health expenditure per capita proxies health-system capacity. FAILS the strict mechanism test — it measures SPEND, not CAPACITY. Should be replaced with surge-capacity / bed-density / ICU-density threshold signal. |
| constructStatus: wealth-proxy |
| reviewNotes: Active healthPublicService Core scorer input. PR 4 §4.9 tracks replacement with a direct surge-capacity signal; kept Core here because it is already in the public scorer and clears coverage-influence tiering. |
|
|
| - indicator: uhcIndex |
| dimension: healthPublicService |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.35 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: WHO Global Health Observatory |
| seriesId: Universal Health Coverage service coverage index |
| seriesUrl: https://www.who.int/data/gho |
| coveragePct: 0.87 |
| lastObservedYear: 2022 |
| license: WHO public-domain/open-data |
| mechanismTestRationale: Universal Health Coverage index measures baseline service coverage available before and during public-health shocks. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active healthPublicService Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: measlesCoverage |
| dimension: healthPublicService |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: WHO Global Health Observatory |
| seriesId: Measles immunization coverage among 1-year-olds |
| seriesUrl: https://www.who.int/data/gho |
| coveragePct: 0.87 |
| lastObservedYear: 2022 |
| license: WHO public-domain/open-data |
| mechanismTestRationale: Measles immunization coverage measures preventive-health reach and public-service delivery capacity. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active healthPublicService Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: hospitalBeds |
| dimension: healthPublicService |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.10 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: WHO Global Health Observatory |
| seriesId: Hospital beds per 1,000 people |
| seriesUrl: https://www.who.int/data/gho |
| coveragePct: 0.87 |
| lastObservedYear: 2022 |
| license: WHO public-domain/open-data |
| mechanismTestRationale: Hospital-bed density measures physical care capacity available for health-system surge response. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active healthPublicService Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: ipcPeopleInCrisis |
| dimension: foodWater |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.45 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: FAO IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) |
| seriesId: People in food crisis (log10 scale) |
| seriesUrl: https://www.ipcinfo.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.88 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: People in crisis measures population-scale food-security pressure, with log scaling for extreme crises. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active foodWater Core scorer input. |
|
|
| - indicator: ipcPhase |
| dimension: foodWater |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.15 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: FAO IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) |
| seriesId: IPC Phase (1-5) |
| seriesUrl: https://www.ipcinfo.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.40 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: IPC phase directly measures current food-security-crisis severity. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Coverage is inherently partial — IPC only tracks countries with current/imminent food crises. Imputed to a resilient-default for non-tracked countries. |
|
|
| - indicator: aquastatScore |
| dimension: foodWater |
| domain: health-food |
| weight: 0.40 |
| direction: composite |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: FAO AQUASTAT |
| seriesId: Indicator-tagged water stress / withdrawal / dependency / availability / renewable / access reading |
| seriesUrl: https://www.fao.org/aquastat/ |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2020 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: The scorer uses one AQUASTAT slot. `scoreAquastatValue()` routes stress/withdrawal/dependency tags through lower-better 0-100 anchors and availability/renewable/access tags through higher-better 0-100 or 0-5000 anchors. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
|
|
| |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryGovRevenue |
| dimension: fiscalSpace |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 0.25 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: IMF |
| seriesId: GGR_G01_GDP_PT |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGR_G01_GDP_PT@FM/ |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: Government revenue % GDP for recovery scenarios — policy-response fiscal headroom. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Weight reduced 0.40 → 0.25 to make room for debtSustainabilityGap (the more informative single signal). Duplicate with macroFiscal.govRevenuePct. PR 4 may de-duplicate. |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryFiscalBalance |
| dimension: fiscalSpace |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: IMF |
| seriesId: GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXCNL_G01_GDP_PT@FM/ |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: General government net lending/borrowing as % of GDP — direct fiscal-response-capacity signal. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Weight reduced 0.30 → 0.20 with the addition of debtSustainabilityGap, which integrates fiscal balance into its r-g computation. |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryDebtToGdp |
| dimension: fiscalSpace |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: IMF |
| seriesId: GGXWDG_NGDP_PT |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP_PT@FM/ |
| coveragePct: 0.90 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: General government gross debt to GDP — fiscal-stress cushion. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Weight reduced 0.30 → 0.20 alongside the addition of debtSustainabilityGap. Goalpost 0-150 is too linear; Japan at 260% (mostly domestic, yen-denominated) scores 0 despite weak real fiscal-stress risk. The gap indicator partially compensates by honoring the g≈r regime. PR 4 §4.4 adds holder-composition modifier. |
|
|
| - indicator: debtSustainabilityGap |
| dimension: fiscalSpace |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 0.35 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: enrichment |
| source: IMF (5 series composite — see formula in country-resilience-index.mdx §Fiscal Space) |
| seriesId: GGXONLB_NGDP × GGXCNL_NGDP × GGXWDG_NGDP × NGDP_RPCH × PCPIPCH |
| seriesUrl: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/WEO |
| coveragePct: 0.79 |
| lastObservedYear: 2024 |
| license: Proprietary-with-fair-use |
| mechanismTestRationale: | |
| Primary-balance gap to debt-stabilizing level — the standard IMF DSA construct used by Article IV |
| missions, ECB MIP scoreboard, and S&P sovereign methodology. Captures debt trajectory (sustainability) |
| rather than debt level. Computed at seed time: gap = pb − ((r−g)/(1+g))·d where r is derived from |
| the algebraic identity (overall_balance = primary_balance − interest_expense), g is compounded |
| nominal growth (1+real)·(1+inflation)−1. Inputs year-aligned via latestCommonYear across the 5 |
| formula series; year-mismatched countries drop to null and the scorer's weightedBlend redistributes |
| weight across the remaining 3 fiscal-space indicators. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: | |
| Inflation cap (CPI > 10%) drops gap to null for inflation-tax-regime countries (Argentina, Turkey, |
| Lebanon, Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, etc.) — above this threshold the formula's |
| high nominal-growth term mechanically erodes debt while masking real fiscal pathology. Fiscal-3 still |
| scores these countries. Cap tightened from 25% in 2026-05-19 follow-up to PR #3669 after live data |
| showed Lebanon (14.6% CPI) scoring #1 globally on this indicator. Goalposts -5/+3 chosen from IMF DSA |
| distress conventions; gap≈0 is debt-stabilizing (normalized score ≈ 62), gap≥+3 saturates (debt |
| declining), gap≤-5 floors (severe distress). |
| |
| - indicator: recoveryReserveMonths |
| dimension: reserveAdequacy |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 1.00 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: World Bank |
| seriesId: FI.RES.TOTL.MO |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Central-bank reserves in months of imports — immediate external-liquidity cushion. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Experimental rollback row only; active recovery parity moved to recoveryLiquidReserveMonths under liquidReserveAdequacy. |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryLiquidReserveMonths |
| dimension: liquidReserveAdequacy |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 1.00 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank |
| seriesId: FI.RES.TOTL.MO |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.MO |
| coveragePct: 0.85 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Central-bank reserves in months of imports measure immediate external-liquidity cushion; sovereign-wealth assets score separately. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Active liquidReserveAdequacy Core scorer input replacing the reserveAdequacy rollback dimension. |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryDebtToReserves |
| dimension: externalDebtCoverage |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 1.00 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank |
| seriesId: DT.DOD.DSTC.CD / FI.RES.TOTL.CD |
| seriesUrl: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.DOD.DSTC.CD |
| coveragePct: 0.75 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: Short-term external debt to reserves ratio — rollover-shock exposure. Goalpost anchored on Greenspan-Guidotti (ratio≥1 = reserve inadequacy). |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: PR 3 §3.5 point 3 re-goalposted from (0..5) to (0..2). Old goalpost saturated at 100 across the 9-country probe including stressed states; new anchor maps ratio=1.0 to score 50 and ratio=2.0 to score 0. |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryImportHhi |
| dimension: importConcentration |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 1.00 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: UN Comtrade |
| seriesId: HS2 bilateral Herfindahl-Hirschman Index |
| seriesUrl: https://comtrade.un.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.70 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: Import-partner concentration (HHI) — supplier-shock exposure. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Coverage gap for UAE and small-island states; PR 1+ audit. |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryWgiContinuity |
| dimension: stateContinuity |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 0.50 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: World Bank WGI |
| seriesId: Mean of WGI subscores |
| seriesUrl: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ |
| coveragePct: 0.98 |
| lastObservedYear: 2023 |
| license: CC-BY-4.0 |
| mechanismTestRationale: WGI composite as state-continuity proxy — institutional durability through shocks. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Duplicate with governanceInstitutional.wgiComposite. PR 4 de-duplicate. |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryConflictPressure |
| dimension: stateContinuity |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 0.30 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: UCDP |
| seriesId: Armed conflict events / fatalities |
| seriesUrl: https://ucdp.uu.se/ |
| coveragePct: 0.95 |
| lastObservedYear: 2026 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: UCDP conflict intensity — direct state-continuity-shock metric. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
|
|
| - indicator: recoveryDisplacementVelocity |
| dimension: stateContinuity |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 0.20 |
| direction: lower-better |
| scoringTier: core |
| source: UNHCR |
| seriesId: Displacement as share of population |
| seriesUrl: https://data.unhcr.org/ |
| coveragePct: 0.95 |
| lastObservedYear: 2025 |
| license: Open |
| mechanismTestRationale: Displacement velocity — population-scale state-continuity stress. |
| constructStatus: observed-mechanism |
| reviewNotes: Inherits host-vs-sending bias. PR 4 §4.2 fix. |
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| - indicator: recoveryFuelStockDays |
| dimension: fuelStockDays |
| domain: recovery |
| weight: 1.00 |
| direction: higher-better |
| scoringTier: experimental |
| source: IEA / EIA |
| seriesId: Days of fuel stock cover |
| seriesUrl: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/oil-stocks-of-iea-countries |
| coveragePct: 0.30 |
| lastObservedYear: null |
| license: Proprietary |
| mechanismTestRationale: Days of fuel stock for import-shock coverage. IEA rules bind only net importers; net exporters get no observed value. |
| constructStatus: imputed-floor |
| reviewNotes: PR 3 §3.5 retires from core score (permanent). Enrichment-only if IEA/EIA connector ever wires. |
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