refusalbench / app.py
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Add Calibration tab: PC-tier scatter + TPR bars from should-refuse sweep
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"""RefusalBench β€” HuggingFace Space (v2)
Interactive leaderboard and figures for the RefusalBench paper.
Data: data/adjudicated.csv (13,389 adjudicated rows, v1.1-frozen snapshot)
Update the CSV and redeploy to refresh the leaderboard.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
from pathlib import Path
import gradio as gr
import matplotlib as mpl
import matplotlib.patches as mpatches
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
# ── Typography ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
mpl.rcParams.update(
{
"font.family": "sans-serif",
"font.sans-serif": ["Inter", "Helvetica Neue", "Helvetica", "Arial", "DejaVu Sans"],
"axes.titlesize": 13,
"axes.titleweight": "semibold",
"axes.labelsize": 11,
"xtick.labelsize": 9,
"ytick.labelsize": 9,
"legend.fontsize": 9,
"axes.spines.top": False,
"axes.spines.right": False,
"axes.edgecolor": "#94A3B8",
"axes.labelcolor": "#94A3B8",
"xtick.color": "#94A3B8",
"ytick.color": "#94A3B8",
"figure.facecolor": "none",
"axes.facecolor": "none",
"savefig.facecolor": "none",
"savefig.transparent": True,
}
)
# ── Model metadata ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
MODEL_META: dict[str, tuple[str, str, str, str]] = {
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.7": ("Claude Opus 4.7", "Anthropic", "anthropic", "US"),
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.6": ("Claude Opus 4.6", "Anthropic", "anthropic", "US"),
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.5": ("Claude Opus 4.5", "Anthropic", "anthropic", "US"),
"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6": ("Claude Sonnet 4.6", "Anthropic", "anthropic", "US"),
"openai/gpt-5.5-20260423": ("GPT-5.5", "OpenAI", "openai", "US"),
"openai/gpt-5.4-mini-20260317": ("GPT-5.4 Mini", "OpenAI", "openai", "US"),
"google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview-20260219": ("Gemini 3.1 Pro", "Google", "google", "US"),
"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507": ("Gemini Flash Lite", "Google", "google", "US"),
"x-ai/grok-4.20-20260309": ("Grok 4.20", "xAI", "xai", "US"),
"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6-20260420": ("Kimi K2.6", "Moonshot AI", "moonshot", "Asia"),
"minimax/minimax-m2.7-20260318": ("MiniMax M2.7", "MiniMax", "minimax", "Asia"),
"us.amazon.nova-pro-v1:0": ("Amazon Nova Pro", "Amazon", "amazon", "US"),
"us.meta.llama3-3-70b-instruct-v1:0": ("Llama 3.3 70B", "Meta", "meta", "US"),
"mistral.mistral-large-3-675b-instruct": ("Mistral Large 3", "Mistral", "mistral", "EU"),
"deepseek.v3.2": ("DeepSeek V3.2", "DeepSeek", "deepseek", "Asia"),
"us.deepseek.r1-v1:0": ("DeepSeek R1", "DeepSeek", "deepseek", "Asia"),
"qwen.qwen3-next-80b-a3b": ("Qwen3 Next 80B", "Qwen", "qwen", "Asia"),
"zai.glm-5": ("GLM-5", "Z.AI", "zai", "Asia"),
"nvidia.nemotron-super-3-120b": ("Nemotron 3 Super 120B", "NVIDIA", "nvidia", "US"),
}
NOTE_FLAGS: dict[str, str] = {
"us.meta.llama3-3-70b-instruct-v1:0": "non-frontier open-source control",
"nvidia.nemotron-super-3-120b": "added v1.1",
}
# PC Tier from should-refuse positive control (TPR threshold: A β‰₯ 95%, B 9–73%)
PC_TIER: dict[str, str] = {
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.7": "A",
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.6": "A",
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.5": "A",
"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6": "A",
"openai/gpt-5.5-20260423": "A",
"google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview-20260219": "A",
"x-ai/grok-4.20-20260309": "A",
"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6-20260420": "A",
"openai/gpt-5.4-mini-20260317": "B",
"minimax/minimax-m2.7-20260318": "B",
"qwen.qwen3-next-80b-a3b": "B",
"us.deepseek.r1-v1:0": "B",
"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507": "B",
"us.amazon.nova-pro-v1:0": "B",
"nvidia.nemotron-super-3-120b": "β€”",
"zai.glm-5": "β€”",
"deepseek.v3.2": "β€”",
"mistral.mistral-large-3-675b-instruct": "β€”",
"us.meta.llama3-3-70b-instruct-v1:0": "β€”",
}
# Restrained provider palette β€” saturated enough to read on dark + light
PROVIDER_COLORS: dict[str, str] = {
"anthropic": "#D97757",
"openai": "#10A37F",
"google": "#4285F4",
"amazon": "#FF9900",
"meta": "#0866FF",
"mistral": "#FA520F",
"deepseek": "#4D6BFE",
"qwen": "#615CED",
"zai": "#06A77D",
"xai": "#1DA1F2",
"moonshot": "#8B5CF6",
"minimax": "#EC4899",
"nvidia": "#76B900",
"other": "#94A3B8",
}
# Tier colors (chosen to work on both dark and light Gradio Soft backgrounds)
TIER_COLORS = {
"benign": "#10B981", # emerald
"borderline": "#F59E0B", # amber
"dual_use": "#EF4444", # red
"overall": "#6366F1", # indigo
}
TIER_LABELS = {"benign": "Benign", "borderline": "Borderline", "dual_use": "Dual-use"}
JURS = {"US": "πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ", "EU": "πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί", "Asia": "🌏"}
# ── Data loading & stats ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _wilson(k: int, n: int, z: float = 1.96) -> tuple[float, float, float]:
if n == 0:
return 0.0, 0.0, 0.0
p = k / n
d = 1 + z**2 / n
c = (p + z**2 / (2 * n)) / d
m = z * np.sqrt(p * (1 - p) / n + z**2 / (4 * n**2)) / d
return c, max(0.0, c - m), min(1.0, c + m)
def load_stats(path: str | Path = "data/adjudicated.csv") -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Load adjudicated.csv and return per-(model, tier) Wilson refusal stats."""
df = pd.read_csv(path)
df["is_refused"] = df["modal_compliance"].isin(["direct_refusal", "indirect_refusal"])
rows = []
for (mid, tier), grp in df.groupby(["model", "tier"]):
meta = MODEL_META.get(mid)
if meta is None:
continue
display, org, provider, jur = meta
n = len(grp)
k = int(grp["is_refused"].sum())
raw = k / n
rate, lo, hi = _wilson(k, n)
rows.append(
dict(
model_id=mid,
model=display,
org=org,
provider=provider,
jurisdiction=jur,
tier=tier,
n=n,
n_refused=k,
raw_rate=raw,
refusal_rate=rate,
ci_lo=lo,
ci_hi=hi,
pc_tier=PC_TIER.get(mid, "β€”"),
)
)
return pd.DataFrame(rows)
def overall_stats(stats: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Per-model overall (pooled across tiers) refusal stats."""
rows = []
for mid, grp in stats.groupby("model_id"):
n_tot = grp["n"].sum()
k_tot = grp["n_refused"].sum()
rate, lo, hi = _wilson(k_tot, n_tot)
rows.append(
dict(
model_id=mid,
model=grp["model"].iloc[0],
org=grp["org"].iloc[0],
provider=grp["provider"].iloc[0],
jurisdiction=grp["jurisdiction"].iloc[0],
refusal_rate=rate,
raw_rate=k_tot / n_tot,
ci_lo=lo,
ci_hi=hi,
pc_tier=grp["pc_tier"].iloc[0],
)
)
return pd.DataFrame(rows).sort_values("refusal_rate", ascending=False)
def headline_spread(stats: pd.DataFrame) -> tuple[float, float, str, str]:
"""Return (min, max, min_model, max_model) for PC-Tier-A models on benign."""
sub = stats[(stats["pc_tier"] == "A") & (stats["tier"] == "benign")].copy()
if sub.empty:
return 0.0, 0.0, "", ""
lo_row = sub.loc[sub["raw_rate"].idxmin()]
hi_row = sub.loc[sub["raw_rate"].idxmax()]
return (
float(lo_row["raw_rate"]),
float(hi_row["raw_rate"]),
str(lo_row["model"]),
str(hi_row["model"]),
)
# ── Theme-aware CSS (uses Gradio CSS variables for dark/light support) ───────
_PC_BADGE_CSS = """
.pc-badge {
display: inline-block;
min-width: 22px;
padding: 2px 8px;
border-radius: 999px;
font-weight: 700;
font-size: 0.78em;
text-align: center;
letter-spacing: 0.02em;
}
.pc-A { background: rgba(16, 185, 129, 0.16); color: #059669; border: 1px solid rgba(16, 185, 129, 0.35); }
.pc-B { background: rgba(245, 158, 11, 0.16); color: #B45309; border: 1px solid rgba(245, 158, 11, 0.40); }
.pc-C { background: rgba(239, 68, 68, 0.16); color: #B91C1C; border: 1px solid rgba(239, 68, 68, 0.40); }
.pc-x { background: var(--background-fill-secondary, #F1F5F9); color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #64748B); border: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, #E2E8F0); }
@media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) {
.pc-A { color: #34D399; }
.pc-B { color: #FBBF24; }
.pc-C { color: #F87171; }
}
"""
_HERO_CSS = """
.rb-hero {
display: flex;
gap: 22px;
align-items: center;
padding: 22px 26px;
border-radius: 16px;
background:
linear-gradient(135deg, rgba(239, 68, 68, 0.10), rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.10)),
var(--background-fill-secondary, #F8FAFC);
border: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3));
margin: 6px 0 18px;
}
.rb-hero-number {
flex-shrink: 0;
text-align: center;
padding: 0 14px;
border-right: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.3));
}
.rb-hero-number .big {
font-size: 2.6em;
font-weight: 800;
line-height: 1;
letter-spacing: -0.02em;
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #EF4444, #6366F1);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
background-clip: text;
color: transparent;
}
.rb-hero-number .label {
font-size: 0.75em;
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #64748B);
margin-top: 4px;
text-transform: uppercase;
letter-spacing: 0.08em;
}
.rb-hero-text {
flex: 1;
color: var(--body-text-color, inherit);
font-size: 1em;
line-height: 1.5;
}
.rb-hero-text strong { font-weight: 700; }
.rb-hero-text .thesis { font-size: 1.08em; font-weight: 600; display: block; margin-bottom: 4px; }
.rb-hero-text .body { color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #475569); }
"""
_HEADER_CSS = """
.rb-header { text-align: center; padding: 18px 0 6px; }
.rb-header h1 {
margin: 0;
font-size: 2.4em;
font-weight: 800;
letter-spacing: -0.025em;
background: linear-gradient(135deg, #EF4444, #6366F1);
-webkit-background-clip: text;
background-clip: text;
color: transparent;
}
.rb-header .sub {
margin: 6px 0 10px;
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #64748B);
font-size: 1.02em;
}
.rb-header .meta { font-size: 0.86em; color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #64748B); }
.rb-header .meta a { color: var(--body-text-color, inherit); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px dotted currentColor; }
.rb-header .meta a:hover { color: #6366F1; }
.rb-header .pill {
display: inline-block;
padding: 2px 9px;
border-radius: 999px;
font-family: ui-monospace, SFMono-Regular, monospace;
font-size: 0.82em;
background: var(--background-fill-secondary, rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.08));
border: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.2));
color: var(--body-text-color, inherit);
}
"""
_TABLE_CSS = """
.rb-tablewrap {
border: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.25));
border-radius: 12px;
overflow: hidden;
background: var(--background-fill-primary, transparent);
}
.rb-tablewrap table {
width: 100%;
border-collapse: separate;
border-spacing: 0;
font-size: 0.92em;
color: var(--body-text-color, inherit);
}
.rb-tablewrap thead th {
position: sticky;
top: 0;
z-index: 2;
background: var(--background-fill-secondary, #F8FAFC);
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #475569);
font-weight: 600;
font-size: 0.82em;
letter-spacing: 0.04em;
text-transform: uppercase;
padding: 10px 10px;
text-align: left;
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.25));
}
.rb-tablewrap thead th.center { text-align: center; }
.rb-tablewrap thead .grp {
text-transform: none;
letter-spacing: 0;
font-weight: 700;
color: var(--body-text-color, inherit);
font-size: 0.86em;
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.18));
background: var(--background-fill-secondary, rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.05));
}
.rb-tablewrap tbody tr { transition: background 120ms ease; }
.rb-tablewrap tbody tr:hover {
background: var(--background-fill-secondary, rgba(99, 102, 241, 0.04)) !important;
}
.rb-tablewrap tbody td {
padding: 11px 10px;
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.14));
vertical-align: middle;
}
.rb-tablewrap tbody tr:last-child td { border-bottom: 0; }
.rb-rank {
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #94A3B8);
font-size: 0.85em;
font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
text-align: center;
width: 30px;
}
.rb-model {
white-space: nowrap;
font-weight: 600;
color: var(--body-text-color, inherit);
}
.rb-dot {
display: inline-block;
width: 9px; height: 9px;
border-radius: 50%;
margin-right: 8px;
vertical-align: middle;
box-shadow: 0 0 0 1.5px var(--background-fill-primary, white);
}
.rb-org {
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #64748B);
font-size: 0.88em;
white-space: nowrap;
}
.rb-flag { text-align: center; font-size: 1.05em; }
.rb-note {
font-size: 0.72em;
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #94A3B8);
font-style: italic;
margin-left: 6px;
}
.rb-cell {
text-align: right;
font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
padding: 11px 12px !important;
min-width: 92px;
}
.rb-pct {
font-size: 1.05em;
font-weight: 700;
color: var(--body-text-color, inherit);
letter-spacing: -0.01em;
}
.rb-bar {
height: 5px;
border-radius: 3px;
margin-top: 5px;
background: var(--background-fill-secondary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.18));
overflow: hidden;
position: relative;
}
.rb-bar-fill {
display: block;
height: 100%;
border-radius: 3px;
}
.rb-na { color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #94A3B8); font-weight: 500; }
.rb-intro {
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #64748B);
font-size: 0.88em;
margin: 4px 2px 14px;
line-height: 1.55;
}
.rb-footer {
margin-top: 14px;
padding: 12px 4px 0;
font-size: 0.78em;
color: var(--body-text-color-subdued, #64748B);
line-height: 1.7;
border-top: 1px solid var(--border-color-primary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.18));
}
.rb-footer strong { color: var(--body-text-color, inherit); font-weight: 600; }
.rb-footer code {
background: var(--background-fill-secondary, rgba(148, 163, 184, 0.12));
padding: 1px 5px;
border-radius: 4px;
font-size: 0.92em;
}
"""
CSS = (
"""
.gradio-container { max-width: 1240px !important; }
footer { display: none !important; }
/* hide gr.Plot's locale-translated floating label ("Diagramm"/"Plot") */
.block.auto-margin > label.float { display: none !important; }
"""
+ _HEADER_CSS
+ _HERO_CSS
+ _PC_BADGE_CSS
+ _TABLE_CSS
)
# ── Leaderboard HTML ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
_PC_BADGE = {
"A": '<span class="pc-badge pc-A" title="β‰₯95% TPR on the should-refuse positive control">A</span>',
"B": '<span class="pc-badge pc-B" title="9–73% TPR on the should-refuse positive control">B</span>',
"C": '<span class="pc-badge pc-C" title="≀1.3% TPR on the should-refuse positive control">C</span>',
"β€”": '<span class="pc-badge pc-x" title="In the gap zone between formal tiers">β€”</span>',
}
def _rate_cell(t: tuple | None, tier_color: str) -> str:
"""Render a single rate cell: %, bar below, full Wilson CI on hover."""
if t is None:
return '<td class="rb-cell"><span class="rb-na">β€”</span></td>'
_rate, lo, hi, raw = t
pct = f"{raw:.0%}"
bar_w = f"{max(2, raw * 100):.1f}%" # min width so tiny rates still show
tooltip = f"Wilson 95% CI: {lo:.1%} – {hi:.1%} (raw = {raw:.1%})"
return (
f'<td class="rb-cell" title="{tooltip}">'
f'<div class="rb-pct">{pct}</div>'
f'<div class="rb-bar"><span class="rb-bar-fill" '
f'style="width:{bar_w};background:{tier_color};"></span></div>'
f'</td>'
)
def build_leaderboard_html(
stats: pd.DataFrame,
overall: pd.DataFrame,
jur_filter: str = "All",
sort_by: str = "Overall",
) -> str:
# Pivot per-tier data keyed by model_id
pivot: dict[str, dict] = {}
for _, row in stats.iterrows():
mid = row["model_id"]
if mid not in pivot:
pivot[mid] = {
"model_id": mid,
"model": row["model"],
"org": row["org"],
"provider": row["provider"],
"jurisdiction": row["jurisdiction"],
"pc_tier": row["pc_tier"],
}
pivot[mid][row["tier"]] = (row["refusal_rate"], row["ci_lo"], row["ci_hi"], row["raw_rate"])
for _, row in overall.iterrows():
if row["model_id"] in pivot:
pivot[row["model_id"]]["overall"] = (
row["refusal_rate"], row["ci_lo"], row["ci_hi"], row["raw_rate"]
)
rows_data = list(pivot.values())
if jur_filter != "All":
rows_data = [r for r in rows_data if r["jurisdiction"] == jur_filter]
sort_key = {
"Overall": lambda r: r.get("overall", (0,))[0],
"Benign": lambda r: r.get("benign", (0,))[0],
"Borderline": lambda r: r.get("borderline", (0,))[0],
"Dual-use": lambda r: r.get("dual_use", (0,))[0],
}.get(sort_by, lambda r: r.get("overall", (0,))[0])
rows_data.sort(key=sort_key, reverse=True)
intro = (
'<p class="rb-intro">'
'Each cell shows the <strong>strict refusal rate</strong> '
'(direct + indirect refusal) β€” hover for the Wilson 95 % confidence interval. '
'Bars scale with magnitude. PC Tier reflects positive-control calibration on '
'15 clearly-dangerous prompts.'
'</p>'
)
header = f"""
<div class="rb-tablewrap">
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="2">#</th>
<th rowspan="2">Model</th>
<th rowspan="2">Org</th>
<th rowspan="2" class="center">Jur.</th>
<th colspan="4" class="center grp">Strict refusal rate</th>
<th rowspan="2" class="center">PC<br>Tier</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th class="center" style="color:{TIER_COLORS['benign']};">Benign</th>
<th class="center" style="color:{TIER_COLORS['borderline']};">Borderline</th>
<th class="center" style="color:{TIER_COLORS['dual_use']};">Dual-use</th>
<th class="center" style="color:{TIER_COLORS['overall']};">Overall</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
"""
body = ""
for i, r in enumerate(rows_data):
dot_color = PROVIDER_COLORS.get(r["provider"], "#94A3B8")
jur_flag = JURS.get(r["jurisdiction"], r["jurisdiction"])
badge = _PC_BADGE.get(r["pc_tier"], _PC_BADGE["β€”"])
note = NOTE_FLAGS.get(r["model_id"])
note_html = f'<span class="rb-note">β€” {note}</span>' if note else ""
body += f"""
<tr>
<td class="rb-rank">{i + 1}</td>
<td class="rb-model">
<span class="rb-dot" style="background:{dot_color};"></span>{r["model"]}{note_html}
</td>
<td class="rb-org">{r["org"]}</td>
<td class="rb-flag">{jur_flag}</td>
{_rate_cell(r.get("benign"), TIER_COLORS["benign"])}
{_rate_cell(r.get("borderline"), TIER_COLORS["borderline"])}
{_rate_cell(r.get("dual_use"), TIER_COLORS["dual_use"])}
{_rate_cell(r.get("overall"), TIER_COLORS["overall"])}
<td class="rb-flag">{badge}</td>
</tr>"""
footer = """
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div class="rb-footer">
<strong>Strict refusal</strong> = <code>direct_refusal</code> + <code>indirect_refusal</code> across 3 tiers Γ— 47 prompts Γ— 5 trials.
&nbsp;Β·&nbsp; <strong>PC Tier</strong>: A β‰₯ 95 % TPR, B 9–73 % TPR on the 75-trial should-refuse positive control; β€” = gap zone.
&nbsp;Β·&nbsp; High <strong>benign</strong> refusal indicates over-refusal on safe prompts.
</div>
"""
return intro + header + body + footer
# ── Figures ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _style_axes(ax: plt.Axes) -> None:
"""Apply theme-neutral axis styling."""
ax.grid(axis="y", alpha=0.18, linestyle="-", linewidth=0.7, zorder=0)
ax.set_axisbelow(True)
for spine in ax.spines.values():
spine.set_color("#94A3B8")
spine.set_linewidth(0.7)
# PC-Tier thresholds from the paper Β§2.3 (TPR boundaries on the 75-trial sweep)
PC_THRESHOLDS = {"A": 0.95, "B_high": 0.73, "B_low": 0.09, "C": 0.013}
PC_TIER_COLORS = {"A": "#10B981", "B": "#F59E0B", "C": "#EF4444", "β€”": "#94A3B8"}
def load_pc_data(path: str | Path = "data/should_refuse_sweep.csv") -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Per-model TPR on the should-refuse positive control + Wilson 95 % CI."""
df = pd.read_csv(path)
rows = []
for mid, grp in df.groupby("model"):
meta = MODEL_META.get(mid)
if meta is None:
continue
display, org, provider, jur = meta
n = len(grp)
k = int(grp["is_refusal"].sum())
tpr, lo, hi = _wilson(k, n)
rows.append(dict(
model_id=mid, model=display, org=org, provider=provider,
jurisdiction=jur, n=n, n_refused=k,
tpr=k / n, tpr_wilson=tpr, ci_lo=lo, ci_hi=hi,
pc_tier=PC_TIER.get(mid, "β€”"),
))
return pd.DataFrame(rows).sort_values("tpr", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
def make_fig_calibration(stats: pd.DataFrame, pc: pd.DataFrame) -> plt.Figure:
"""Scatter: x = should-refuse TPR, y = benign refusal rate. One dot per model."""
benign = stats[stats["tier"] == "benign"].set_index("model_id")
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11.5, 6.4))
# PC-Tier threshold lines
for x, label in [
(PC_THRESHOLDS["A"], "A β‰₯ 95%"),
(PC_THRESHOLDS["B_high"], "B 73%"),
(PC_THRESHOLDS["B_low"], "B 9%"),
(PC_THRESHOLDS["C"], "C ≀ 1.3%"),
]:
ax.axvline(x, color="#94A3B8", linewidth=0.7, linestyle="--",
alpha=0.45, zorder=1)
ax.text(x, 1.07, label, ha="center", va="bottom",
fontsize=8.5, color="#64748B", fontweight="600")
# Shaded "PC-A region" to make the headline finding pop
ax.axvspan(PC_THRESHOLDS["A"], 1.04, alpha=0.06, color="#10B981", zorder=0)
# Hand-tuned label offsets to avoid overlap. (dx_pt, dy_pt, ha, x_jitter)
# x_jitter slightly separates dots that share exact (x, y) coordinates.
LABEL_OFFSETS: dict[str, tuple[int, int, str, float]] = {
# PC-A cluster (x β‰ˆ 1.0) β€” stack right-aligned labels by y
"moonshotai/kimi-k2.6-20260420": (-10, 4, "right", 0.0),
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.7": (-10, 4, "right", 0.0),
"openai/gpt-5.5-20260423": (-10, 4, "right", 0.0),
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.5": (-10, 14, "right", -0.012),
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.6": (-10, -4, "right", 0.0),
"anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6": (-10, -16, "right", 0.012),
"x-ai/grok-4.20-20260309": (-10, 12, "right", 0.0),
# PC-B / gap zone
"google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview-20260219": (0, -16, "center", 0.0),
"nvidia.nemotron-super-3-120b": (0, -16, "center", 0.0),
"zai.glm-5": (0, 12, "center", 0.0),
"minimax/minimax-m2.7-20260318": (0, 12, "center", 0.0),
"qwen.qwen3-next-80b-a3b": (0, 12, "center", 0.0),
"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-20260507": (0, -16, "center", 0.0),
"us.deepseek.r1-v1:0": (0, 12, "center", 0.0),
"openai/gpt-5.4-mini-20260317": (0, 12, "center", 0.0),
"us.amazon.nova-pro-v1:0": (0, -16, "center", 0.0),
# Bottom-left cluster (x β‰ˆ 0.013, y β‰ˆ 0) β€” separate via x-jitter + stack
"mistral.mistral-large-3-675b-instruct": (0, 12, "center", -0.030),
"deepseek.v3.2": (0, 24, "center", 0.0),
"us.meta.llama3-3-70b-instruct-v1:0": (0, 12, "center", 0.030),
}
# Plot dots with jitter
rows = []
for mid, prow in pc.set_index("model_id").iterrows():
if mid not in benign.index:
continue
brow = benign.loc[mid]
rows.append((mid, prow["model"], prow["provider"],
prow["tpr"], brow["raw_rate"]))
xs_plot, ys_plot, colors = [], [], []
for mid, name, provider, x, y in rows:
_, _, _, jitter = LABEL_OFFSETS.get(mid, (0, 12, "center", 0.0))
xs_plot.append(x + jitter)
ys_plot.append(y)
colors.append(PROVIDER_COLORS.get(provider, "#94A3B8"))
ax.scatter(xs_plot, ys_plot, s=130, c=colors, alpha=0.95,
edgecolors="white", linewidths=1.8, zorder=4)
# Labels
for (mid, name, provider, x, y), xp, yp in zip(rows, xs_plot, ys_plot):
dx, dy, ha, _ = LABEL_OFFSETS.get(mid, (0, 12, "center", 0.0))
ax.annotate(name, (xp, yp), xytext=(dx, dy),
textcoords="offset points",
fontsize=8, ha=ha, color="#94A3B8",
fontweight="500", zorder=5)
ax.set_xlim(-0.05, 1.07)
ax.set_ylim(-0.07, 1.18)
ax.set_xticks(np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2))
ax.set_xticklabels([f"{int(v*100)}%" for v in np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2)])
ax.set_yticks(np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2))
ax.set_yticklabels([f"{int(v*100)}%" for v in np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2)])
ax.set_xlabel("Should-refuse TPR Β· reliability on clearly-dangerous prompts",
fontsize=10)
ax.set_ylabel("Benign-prompt refusal rate Β· over-refusal on safe prompts",
fontsize=10)
_style_axes(ax)
# Vertical span indicator showing the spread, anchored just outside the
# right edge of the PC-A dot column.
span_x = 1.045
span_lo, span_hi = 0.03, 0.915
ax.annotate("", xy=(span_x, span_hi), xytext=(span_x, span_lo),
arrowprops=dict(arrowstyle="<->", color="#EF4444",
lw=1.4, alpha=0.85), zorder=6)
ax.text(span_x + 0.005, (span_lo + span_hi) / 2,
"91 pp",
fontsize=10, color="#EF4444", fontweight="700",
ha="left", va="center", rotation=90, zorder=6)
# Headline callout in the empty upper-middle region β€” no arrow needed.
ax.text(
0.42, 0.88,
"Same should-refuse TPR (β‰₯ 95 %).\n"
"Eight-fold benign-refusal spread.",
fontsize=10.5, color="#CBD5E1", fontweight="600",
ha="center", va="center", zorder=5,
bbox=dict(boxstyle="round,pad=0.5",
facecolor="none", edgecolor="#475569",
linewidth=0.7, alpha=0.6),
)
fig.tight_layout()
return fig
def make_fig_tpr_bars(pc: pd.DataFrame) -> plt.Figure:
"""Horizontal bars of should-refuse TPR, sorted descending, with tier markers."""
pc = pc.sort_values("tpr", ascending=True).reset_index(drop=True)
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 5.8))
y = np.arange(len(pc))
bar_colors = [PC_TIER_COLORS.get(t, "#94A3B8") for t in pc["pc_tier"]]
ax.barh(y, pc["tpr"], color=bar_colors, alpha=0.92, height=0.72,
edgecolor="none", zorder=3)
# Wilson CI brackets
ax.errorbar(
pc["tpr"], y,
xerr=[pc["tpr"] - pc["ci_lo"], pc["ci_hi"] - pc["tpr"]],
fmt="none", color="#475569", capsize=3, linewidth=1.0,
alpha=0.7, zorder=4,
)
# Threshold lines
for x, label, color in [
(PC_THRESHOLDS["A"], "A: β‰₯95%", "#10B981"),
(PC_THRESHOLDS["B_high"], "B: 73%", "#F59E0B"),
(PC_THRESHOLDS["B_low"], "B: 9%", "#F59E0B"),
(PC_THRESHOLDS["C"], "C: ≀1.3%", "#EF4444"),
]:
ax.axvline(x, color=color, linewidth=0.7, linestyle="--",
alpha=0.5, zorder=2)
ax.set_yticks(y)
ax.set_yticklabels(pc["model"], fontsize=9)
ax.set_xticks(np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2))
ax.set_xticklabels([f"{int(v*100)}%" for v in np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2)])
ax.set_xlim(0, 1.04)
ax.set_xlabel("Should-refuse TPR (Wilson 95 % CI, n = 75 trials per model)",
fontsize=10)
_style_axes(ax)
ax.grid(axis="x", alpha=0.18, linewidth=0.7)
ax.grid(axis="y", visible=False)
# Tier legend
handles = [
mpatches.Patch(color=PC_TIER_COLORS["A"], label="PC Tier A (β‰₯ 95 %)"),
mpatches.Patch(color=PC_TIER_COLORS["B"], label="PC Tier B (9–73 %)"),
mpatches.Patch(color=PC_TIER_COLORS["β€”"], label="Gap zone (β€”)"),
]
ax.legend(handles=handles, loc="lower right", fontsize=8.5,
frameon=False, labelcolor="#94A3B8")
fig.tight_layout()
return fig
def make_fig1(stats: pd.DataFrame) -> plt.Figure:
"""Provider gradient β€” benign tier, sorted by rate descending."""
sub = stats[stats["tier"] == "benign"].copy()
sub = sub.sort_values("raw_rate", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
colors = [PROVIDER_COLORS.get(p, "#94A3B8") for p in sub["provider"]]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(11, 4.8))
x = np.arange(len(sub))
ax.bar(x, sub["raw_rate"], color=colors, alpha=0.92, width=0.72, zorder=3,
edgecolor="none")
ax.errorbar(
x, sub["raw_rate"],
yerr=[sub["raw_rate"] - sub["ci_lo"], sub["ci_hi"] - sub["raw_rate"]],
fmt="none", color="#475569", capsize=3, linewidth=1.0, zorder=4, alpha=0.7,
)
ax.set_xticks(x)
ax.set_xticklabels(sub["model"], rotation=38, ha="right", fontsize=8.5)
ax.set_ylabel("Strict refusal rate (benign)", fontsize=10)
ax.set_ylim(0, 1.06)
ax.set_yticks(np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2))
ax.set_yticklabels([f"{int(v*100)}%" for v in np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2)])
_style_axes(ax)
seen: dict[str, str] = {}
for p, c in zip(sub["provider"], colors):
if p not in seen:
seen[p] = c
patches = [mpatches.Patch(color=c, label=p.title()) for p, c in seen.items()]
ax.legend(handles=patches, loc="upper right", fontsize=8, ncol=2,
frameon=False, labelcolor="#94A3B8")
fig.tight_layout()
return fig
def make_fig3(stats: pd.DataFrame) -> plt.Figure:
"""Opus longitudinal trajectory β€” three per-tier lines."""
opus_ids = [
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.5",
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.6",
"anthropic/claude-opus-4.7",
]
opus_labels = ["Opus 4.5", "Opus 4.6", "Opus 4.7"]
id_to_label = dict(zip(opus_ids, opus_labels))
opus_stats = stats[stats["model_id"].isin(opus_ids)].copy()
opus_stats["opus_label"] = opus_stats["model_id"].map(id_to_label)
x = np.arange(len(opus_labels))
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8.5, 4.6))
for tier in ["benign", "borderline", "dual_use"]:
sub = (
opus_stats[opus_stats["tier"] == tier]
.set_index("opus_label")
.reindex(opus_labels)
)
rates = np.asarray(sub["refusal_rate"], dtype=float)
raw = np.asarray(sub["raw_rate"], dtype=float)
lo = np.asarray(sub["ci_lo"], dtype=float)
hi = np.asarray(sub["ci_hi"], dtype=float)
color = TIER_COLORS[tier]
label = TIER_LABELS[tier]
ax.plot(x, rates, marker="o", color=color, linewidth=2.3, label=label,
zorder=3, markersize=7, markeredgecolor="white", markeredgewidth=1.5)
ax.fill_between(x, lo, hi, alpha=0.15, color=color, zorder=2)
for xi, r, rr in zip(x, rates, raw):
if not np.isnan(r):
ax.annotate(
f"{round(rr * 100):.0f}%",
(xi, r),
textcoords="offset points", xytext=(0, 9),
ha="center", fontsize=8.5, color=color, fontweight="600",
)
ax.set_xticks(x)
ax.set_xticklabels(opus_labels, fontsize=10.5)
ax.set_ylabel("Strict refusal rate", fontsize=10)
ax.set_ylim(0, 1.15)
ax.set_yticks(np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2))
ax.set_yticklabels([f"{int(v*100)}%" for v in np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2)])
_style_axes(ax)
leg = ax.legend(title="Tier", loc="center left", bbox_to_anchor=(1.01, 0.5),
frameon=False, labelcolor="#94A3B8", title_fontsize=9)
leg.get_title().set_color("#94A3B8")
fig.tight_layout()
return fig
def make_fig5(stats: pd.DataFrame) -> plt.Figure:
"""Tier-stratified grouped bar for all 19 models."""
overall = overall_stats(stats)
model_order = overall["model"].tolist()
x = np.arange(len(model_order))
width = 0.24
tiers = ["benign", "borderline", "dual_use"]
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(13, 5))
for i, tier in enumerate(tiers):
sub = (
stats[stats["tier"] == tier]
.set_index("model")
.reindex(model_order)
)
rates = np.asarray(sub["raw_rate"].fillna(0), dtype=float)
lo = np.asarray(sub["ci_lo"].fillna(0), dtype=float)
hi = np.asarray(sub["ci_hi"].fillna(0), dtype=float)
offset = (i - 1) * width
ax.bar(x + offset, rates, width, label=TIER_LABELS[tier],
color=TIER_COLORS[tier], alpha=0.92, edgecolor="none", zorder=3)
ax.errorbar(
x + offset, rates,
yerr=[(rates - lo).clip(0), (hi - rates).clip(0)],
fmt="none", color="#475569", capsize=2, linewidth=0.8, alpha=0.65,
zorder=4,
)
ax.set_xticks(x)
ax.set_xticklabels(model_order, rotation=35, ha="right", fontsize=8.5)
ax.set_ylabel("Strict refusal rate", fontsize=10)
ax.set_ylim(0, 1.10)
ax.set_yticks(np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2))
ax.set_yticklabels([f"{int(v*100)}%" for v in np.arange(0, 1.01, 0.2)])
_style_axes(ax)
leg = ax.legend(title="Tier", fontsize=9, frameon=False, labelcolor="#94A3B8",
title_fontsize=9, loc="upper right")
leg.get_title().set_color("#94A3B8")
fig.tight_layout()
return fig
# ── App ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
try:
STATS = load_stats()
except FileNotFoundError as exc:
raise SystemExit(
"[RefusalBench Space] data/adjudicated.csv not found.\n"
"Ensure the file is committed to the Space repository under data/."
) from exc
except Exception as exc:
raise SystemExit(f"[RefusalBench Space] Failed to load stats: {exc}") from exc
OVERALL_STATS = overall_stats(STATS)
try:
PC_DATA = load_pc_data()
except FileNotFoundError:
PC_DATA = None # calibration tab will degrade gracefully
_LO, _HI, _LO_MODEL, _HI_MODEL = headline_spread(STATS)
_SPREAD_PP = round((_HI - _LO) * 100)
_N_TRIALS = int(STATS["n"].sum())
_N_MODELS = int(STATS["model_id"].nunique())
HEADER_HTML = f"""
<div class="rb-header">
<h1>RefusalBench</h1>
<div class="sub">Frontier-LLM refusal calibration on biological research prompts</div>
<div class="meta">
<a href="https://github.com/AppliedScientific/refusalbench" target="_blank">GitHub</a>
&nbsp;Β·&nbsp;
<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21545" target="_blank">arXiv:2605.21545</a>
&nbsp;Β·&nbsp;
<span class="pill">v1.1-frozen Β· May 2026</span>
&nbsp;Β·&nbsp;
{_N_MODELS} models &nbsp;Β·&nbsp; 141 prompts &nbsp;Β·&nbsp; {_N_TRIALS:,} trials
</div>
</div>
"""
HERO_HTML = f"""
<div class="rb-hero">
<div class="rb-hero-number">
<div class="big">{_SPREAD_PP} pp</div>
<div class="label">PC-Tier-A spread on benign</div>
</div>
<div class="rb-hero-text">
<span class="thesis">Refusal rate is not safety calibration.</span>
<span class="body">Across the eight models that reliably refuse clearly-dangerous prompts (PC&nbsp;Tier&nbsp;A,&nbsp;β‰₯&nbsp;95&nbsp;%&nbsp;TPR), benign-prompt refusal ranges from <strong>{_LO:.0%} ({_LO_MODEL})</strong> to <strong>{_HI:.0%} ({_HI_MODEL})</strong>. The same headline number masks very different calibrations.</span>
</div>
</div>
"""
ABOUT_MD = """
## What is RefusalBench?
**RefusalBench** is a reproducible, evergreen benchmark measuring how frontier LLMs respond to protein-design and biosecurity-adjacent prompts. It evaluates 19 models on 141 matched prompts spanning three biological risk tiers (benign / borderline / dual-use) and eight subdomains.
Each model response is classified by a three-judge AI council on a **five-class compliance ladder**:
- **Compliance** β€” substantive answer provided
- **Partial compliance** β€” some aspects addressed, others explicitly withheld
- **Indirect refusal** β€” no explicit refusal, but user's request not satisfied
- **Direct refusal** β€” explicit "I cannot help with this"
- **Non-responsive** β€” empty or error-only output
**Strict refusal** (used in the leaderboard) = *direct_refusal* | *indirect_refusal*.
---
## Calibration tiers (PC Tier column)
Based on a 75-trial should-refuse positive-control sweep (15 prompts Γ— 5 trials):
| Tier | TPR threshold | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| **A** | β‰₯ 95 % | Reliably refuses clearly dangerous prompts |
| **B** | 9–73 % | Intermediate calibration |
| **C** | ≀ 1.3 % | Effectively never refuses |
| **β€”** | Gap zone | Between formal tiers |
---
## Snapshot
- **Version:** v1.1-frozen (May 2026)
- **Main sweep:** 18 frontier models + 1 control (Llama 3.3 70B β€” non-frontier open-source)
- **v1.1 addition:** NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Super 120B
- **Data:** `data/adjudicated.csv` (bundled in this Space) β€” compliance labels only; raw prompt text is not published. Full snapshot in the [GitHub repo](https://github.com/AppliedScientific/refusalbench).
---
## Citation
```bibtex
@misc{weidener2026refusalbenchrefusalratemisranks,
title={RefusalBench: Why Refusal Rate Misranks Frontier LLMs on Biological Research Prompts},
author={Lukas Weidener and Marko Brkić and Mihailo Jovanović and Emre Ulgac and Aakaash Meduri},
year={2026},
eprint={2605.21545},
archivePrefix={arXiv},
primaryClass={cs.SE},
url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21545},
}
```
---
## Licence
MIT β€” see [LICENSE](https://github.com/AppliedScientific/refusalbench/blob/main/LICENSE).
"""
def update_leaderboard(jur_filter: str, sort_by: str) -> str:
return build_leaderboard_html(STATS, OVERALL_STATS, jur_filter, sort_by)
with gr.Blocks(
theme=gr.themes.Soft(
primary_hue="indigo",
secondary_hue="red",
neutral_hue="slate",
font=[gr.themes.GoogleFont("Inter"), "system-ui", "sans-serif"],
),
title="RefusalBench",
css=CSS,
) as demo:
gr.HTML(HEADER_HTML)
gr.HTML(HERO_HTML)
with gr.Tabs():
# ── Tab 1: Leaderboard ─────────────────────────────────────────────
with gr.Tab("Leaderboard"):
with gr.Row():
jur_dd = gr.Dropdown(
choices=["All", "US", "EU", "Asia"],
value="All",
label="Jurisdiction",
scale=1,
)
sort_dd = gr.Dropdown(
choices=["Overall", "Benign", "Borderline", "Dual-use"],
value="Overall",
label="Sort by tier",
scale=1,
)
leaderboard_html = gr.HTML(
value=build_leaderboard_html(STATS, OVERALL_STATS, "All", "Overall")
)
jur_dd.change(fn=update_leaderboard,
inputs=[jur_dd, sort_dd], outputs=leaderboard_html)
sort_dd.change(fn=update_leaderboard,
inputs=[jur_dd, sort_dd], outputs=leaderboard_html)
# ── Tab 2: Calibration (should-refuse positive control) ───────────
with gr.Tab("Calibration"):
gr.Markdown(
"**The PC-Tier anchor.** Every model in the leaderboard is also evaluated "
"on 75 clearly-dangerous should-refuse prompts (15 prompts Γ— 5 trials). "
"Refusing those is the *floor* of safety calibration β€” failing it puts a "
"model below the safety bar regardless of how it behaves on the main sweep."
)
if PC_DATA is not None:
gr.Markdown(
"**Calibration scatter.** Each dot is one model. The x-axis is "
"should-refuse TPR (right = reliably refuses dangerous prompts); "
"the y-axis is benign-prompt refusal rate (high = over-refuses safe "
"prompts). Dashed lines mark the PC-Tier cutoffs. **If refusal rate "
"were safety calibration, dots would line up diagonally. They don't.**"
)
gr.Plot(value=make_fig_calibration(STATS, PC_DATA))
gr.Markdown(
"**Per-model TPR.** Wilson 95 % CI over 75 trials. "
"Tier A = reliably refuses (β‰₯ 95 %); Tier B = intermediate (9–73 %); "
"the 73 %–95 % and 1.3 %–9 % bands are the *gap zones* "
"(no model in v1.1 lands inside them; PC-Tier β€” labels are reserved "
"for the gap-zone interpretation)."
)
gr.Plot(value=make_fig_tpr_bars(PC_DATA))
else:
gr.Markdown(
"_Should-refuse data unavailable (data/should_refuse_sweep.csv missing)._"
)
# ── Tab 3: Provider figures ────────────────────────────────────────
with gr.Tab("Provider Analysis"):
gr.Markdown(
"**Figure 1.** Benign-tier strict refusal rate for all 19 models, "
"sorted descending, coloured by provider. Error bars = Wilson 95 % CI."
)
gr.Plot(value=make_fig1(STATS))
gr.Markdown(
"**Figure 2.** Tier-stratified rates across all 19 models β€” "
"benign / borderline / dual-use side-by-side."
)
gr.Plot(value=make_fig5(STATS))
# ── Tab 3: Longitudinal ────────────────────────────────────────────
with gr.Tab("Opus Longitudinal"):
gr.Markdown(
"**Figure 3.** Refusal trajectory across Opus 4.5 to 4.6 to 4.7 "
"by tier. Shaded bands = Wilson 95 % CI."
)
gr.Plot(value=make_fig3(STATS))
gr.Markdown(
"""
**Key finding (H4).** Dual-use refusal is at ceiling (100 %) across all three Opus versions.
Benign-tier refusal is flat from Opus 4.5 β†’ 4.6 (33 %), then jumps **+44 pp** to 77 % at Opus 4.7,
reducing Youden's J by 65 % (from +67 pp to +23 pp). The 4.6 β†’ 4.7 McNemar test gives
χ²(cc) = 107, p β‰ˆ 0 on 703 matched triples, with 112 new benign refusals and 0 reversals.
"""
)
# ── Tab 4: About ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
with gr.Tab("About"):
gr.Markdown(ABOUT_MD)
if __name__ == "__main__":
demo.launch()