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PDF archival system for storing and retrieving historical PDF snapshots.
"""
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import List, Dict, Any, Optional, Tuple
import numpy as np
from sqlalchemy import and_, or_, desc
from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
from .models import PDFSnapshot, Prediction, PatternMatch
from .db_config import DatabaseManager, db_session
class PDFArchive:
"""
Manages storage and retrieval of historical PDF snapshots.
Provides high-level API for:
- Storing new PDF snapshots
- Retrieving historical snapshots
- Querying by ticker, date range, expiration
- Getting snapshots for pattern matching
"""
def __init__(self, db_manager: DatabaseManager = None):
"""
Initialize PDF archive.
Args:
db_manager: DatabaseManager instance. If None, creates default.
"""
self.db_manager = db_manager or DatabaseManager()
def store_snapshot(
self,
ticker: str,
spot_price: float,
days_to_expiry: int,
expiration_date: datetime,
risk_free_rate: float,
strikes: np.ndarray,
pdf_values: np.ndarray,
statistics: Dict[str, Any],
sabr_params: Dict[str, float] = None,
interpolation_method: str = None,
interpretation: str = None,
interpretation_mode: str = None,
model_used: str = None,
timestamp: datetime = None
) -> PDFSnapshot:
"""
Store a new PDF snapshot in the database.
Args:
ticker: Stock ticker (e.g., 'SPY')
spot_price: Current spot price
days_to_expiry: Days until expiration
expiration_date: Option expiration date
risk_free_rate: Risk-free rate used
strikes: Array of strike prices
pdf_values: Array of PDF values
statistics: Dictionary of PDF statistics
sabr_params: SABR parameters (alpha, rho, nu, beta)
interpolation_method: Method used ('sabr' or 'spline')
interpretation: AI interpretation text
interpretation_mode: Mode used for interpretation
model_used: Model used ('ollama' or 'fallback')
timestamp: Snapshot timestamp (defaults to now)
Returns:
PDFSnapshot object
"""
if timestamp is None:
timestamp = datetime.utcnow()
# Create snapshot
snapshot = PDFSnapshot(
timestamp=timestamp,
ticker=ticker,
spot_price=spot_price,
days_to_expiry=days_to_expiry,
expiration_date=expiration_date,
risk_free_rate=risk_free_rate,
interpolation_method=interpolation_method,
interpretation=interpretation,
interpretation_mode=interpretation_mode,
model_used=model_used
)
# Set arrays
snapshot.set_strikes(strikes)
snapshot.set_pdf_values(pdf_values)
snapshot.set_statistics(statistics)
# Set SABR params if provided
if sabr_params:
snapshot.sabr_alpha = sabr_params.get('alpha')
snapshot.sabr_rho = sabr_params.get('rho')
snapshot.sabr_nu = sabr_params.get('nu')
snapshot.sabr_beta = sabr_params.get('beta')
# Save to database
with self.db_manager.session_scope() as session:
session.add(snapshot)
session.flush() # Get the ID
snapshot_id = snapshot.id
print(f"β
Stored PDF snapshot: {ticker} @ {timestamp}, ID={snapshot_id}")
return snapshot
def get_snapshot_by_id(self, snapshot_id: int) -> Optional[PDFSnapshot]:
"""
Retrieve a snapshot by ID.
Args:
snapshot_id: Snapshot ID
Returns:
PDFSnapshot or None if not found
"""
with db_session() as session:
return session.query(PDFSnapshot).filter_by(id=snapshot_id).first()
def get_latest_snapshot(
self,
ticker: str = 'SPY',
days_to_expiry: int = None
) -> Optional[PDFSnapshot]:
"""
Get the most recent snapshot for a ticker.
Args:
ticker: Stock ticker
days_to_expiry: Filter by specific DTE (optional)
Returns:
Most recent PDFSnapshot or None
"""
with db_session() as session:
query = session.query(PDFSnapshot).filter_by(ticker=ticker)
if days_to_expiry is not None:
query = query.filter_by(days_to_expiry=days_to_expiry)
snapshot = query.order_by(desc(PDFSnapshot.timestamp)).first()
return snapshot
def get_snapshots_by_date_range(
self,
ticker: str,
start_date: datetime,
end_date: datetime,
days_to_expiry: int = None
) -> List[PDFSnapshot]:
"""
Get all snapshots within a date range.
Args:
ticker: Stock ticker
start_date: Start of date range
end_date: End of date range
days_to_expiry: Filter by specific DTE (optional)
Returns:
List of PDFSnapshot objects
"""
with db_session() as session:
query = session.query(PDFSnapshot).filter(
and_(
PDFSnapshot.ticker == ticker,
PDFSnapshot.timestamp >= start_date,
PDFSnapshot.timestamp <= end_date
)
)
if days_to_expiry is not None:
query = query.filter_by(days_to_expiry=days_to_expiry)
snapshots = query.order_by(PDFSnapshot.timestamp).all()
return snapshots
def get_snapshots_for_pattern_matching(
self,
ticker: str,
exclude_recent_days: int = 7,
min_snapshots: int = 10,
max_snapshots: int = 100,
days_to_expiry_range: Tuple[int, int] = (20, 40)
) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
"""
Get historical snapshots suitable for pattern matching.
Args:
ticker: Stock ticker
exclude_recent_days: Exclude snapshots from last N days
min_snapshots: Minimum number of snapshots to return
max_snapshots: Maximum number of snapshots to return
days_to_expiry_range: (min_dte, max_dte) to filter by
Returns:
List of dictionaries with snapshot data for pattern matching
"""
cutoff_date = datetime.utcnow() - timedelta(days=exclude_recent_days)
with db_session() as session:
query = session.query(PDFSnapshot).filter(
and_(
PDFSnapshot.ticker == ticker,
PDFSnapshot.timestamp <= cutoff_date,
PDFSnapshot.days_to_expiry >= days_to_expiry_range[0],
PDFSnapshot.days_to_expiry <= days_to_expiry_range[1]
)
).order_by(desc(PDFSnapshot.timestamp)).limit(max_snapshots)
snapshots = query.all()
# Convert to format expected by pattern matcher
pattern_data = []
for snapshot in snapshots:
pattern_data.append({
'id': snapshot.id,
'date': snapshot.timestamp.strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
'pdf': snapshot.get_pdf_values(),
'strikes': snapshot.get_strikes(),
'stats': snapshot.get_statistics(),
'spot': snapshot.spot_price,
'dte': snapshot.days_to_expiry
})
return pattern_data
def store_pattern_matches(
self,
current_snapshot_id: int,
matches: List[Dict[str, Any]]
):
"""
Store pattern matching results.
Args:
current_snapshot_id: ID of current snapshot being analyzed
matches: List of match dictionaries from PatternMatcher
"""
with self.db_manager.session_scope() as session:
for rank, match in enumerate(matches, start=1):
pattern_match = PatternMatch(
current_snapshot_id=current_snapshot_id,
historical_snapshot_id=match.get('id'),
match_timestamp=datetime.utcnow(),
overall_similarity=match.get('similarity'),
shape_similarity=match.get('shape_similarity', match.get('similarity')),
stats_similarity=match.get('stats_similarity', match.get('similarity')),
match_rank=rank,
description=match.get('description')
)
session.add(pattern_match)
print(f"β
Stored {len(matches)} pattern matches for snapshot {current_snapshot_id}")
def get_pattern_matches(
self,
snapshot_id: int,
min_similarity: float = 0.0
) -> List[PatternMatch]:
"""
Get pattern matches for a snapshot.
Args:
snapshot_id: Snapshot ID
min_similarity: Minimum similarity threshold
Returns:
List of PatternMatch objects
"""
with db_session() as session:
matches = session.query(PatternMatch).filter(
and_(
PatternMatch.current_snapshot_id == snapshot_id,
PatternMatch.overall_similarity >= min_similarity
)
).order_by(PatternMatch.match_rank).all()
return matches
def store_prediction(
self,
snapshot_id: int,
forecast_date: datetime,
target_date: datetime,
ticker: str,
condition: str,
target_level: float,
predicted_probability: float,
target_level_upper: float = None,
notes: str = None
) -> Prediction:
"""
Store a prediction made from a PDF.
Args:
snapshot_id: ID of snapshot used for prediction
forecast_date: Date prediction was made
target_date: Date to evaluate prediction
ticker: Stock ticker
condition: 'above', 'below', or 'between'
target_level: Strike or price level
predicted_probability: Forecasted probability (0-1)
target_level_upper: Upper level for 'between' condition
notes: Additional notes
Returns:
Prediction object
"""
prediction = Prediction(
snapshot_id=snapshot_id,
forecast_date=forecast_date,
target_date=target_date,
ticker=ticker,
condition=condition,
target_level=target_level,
target_level_upper=target_level_upper,
predicted_probability=predicted_probability,
notes=notes
)
with self.db_manager.session_scope() as session:
session.add(prediction)
session.flush()
prediction_id = prediction.id
print(f"β
Stored prediction: {ticker} {condition} {target_level}, prob={predicted_probability:.2%}, ID={prediction_id}")
return prediction
def evaluate_prediction(
self,
prediction_id: int,
actual_price: float,
evaluation_date: datetime = None
) -> Prediction:
"""
Evaluate a prediction with actual outcome.
Args:
prediction_id: Prediction ID
actual_price: Actual price at target date
evaluation_date: Date of evaluation (defaults to now)
Returns:
Updated Prediction object
"""
if evaluation_date is None:
evaluation_date = datetime.utcnow()
with self.db_manager.session_scope() as session:
prediction = session.query(Prediction).filter_by(id=prediction_id).first()
if prediction is None:
raise ValueError(f"Prediction {prediction_id} not found")
# Determine if condition was met
if prediction.condition == 'above':
outcome = actual_price > prediction.target_level
elif prediction.condition == 'below':
outcome = actual_price < prediction.target_level
elif prediction.condition == 'between':
outcome = (prediction.target_level <= actual_price <= prediction.target_level_upper)
else:
raise ValueError(f"Unknown condition: {prediction.condition}")
# Update prediction
prediction.actual_price = actual_price
prediction.actual_outcome = outcome
prediction.evaluation_date = evaluation_date
# Calculate Brier score
prediction.calculate_brier_score()
session.flush()
print(f"β
Evaluated prediction {prediction_id}: outcome={outcome}, brier={prediction.accuracy_score:.4f}")
return prediction
def get_pending_predictions(
self,
ticker: str = None,
before_date: datetime = None
) -> List[Prediction]:
"""
Get predictions that haven't been evaluated yet.
Args:
ticker: Filter by ticker (optional)
before_date: Only get predictions with target_date before this
Returns:
List of unevaluated Prediction objects
"""
if before_date is None:
before_date = datetime.utcnow()
with db_session() as session:
query = session.query(Prediction).filter(
and_(
Prediction.actual_outcome.is_(None),
Prediction.target_date <= before_date
)
)
if ticker:
query = query.filter_by(ticker=ticker)
predictions = query.order_by(Prediction.target_date).all()
return predictions
def get_prediction_accuracy_stats(
self,
ticker: str = 'SPY',
start_date: datetime = None,
end_date: datetime = None
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""
Calculate accuracy statistics for predictions.
Args:
ticker: Stock ticker
start_date: Start of evaluation period
end_date: End of evaluation period
Returns:
Dictionary with accuracy metrics
"""
with db_session() as session:
query = session.query(Prediction).filter(
and_(
Prediction.ticker == ticker,
Prediction.actual_outcome.isnot(None)
)
)
if start_date:
query = query.filter(Prediction.evaluation_date >= start_date)
if end_date:
query = query.filter(Prediction.evaluation_date <= end_date)
predictions = query.all()
if not predictions:
return {
'total_predictions': 0,
'evaluated_predictions': 0,
'mean_brier_score': None,
'calibration': None
}
# Calculate metrics
total = len(predictions)
correct = sum(1 for p in predictions if p.actual_outcome)
brier_scores = [p.accuracy_score for p in predictions if p.accuracy_score is not None]
return {
'total_predictions': total,
'correct_predictions': correct,
'accuracy_rate': correct / total if total > 0 else 0,
'mean_brier_score': np.mean(brier_scores) if brier_scores else None,
'median_brier_score': np.median(brier_scores) if brier_scores else None,
'predictions': [p.to_dict() for p in predictions]
}
def get_database_stats(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""
Get overall database statistics.
Returns:
Dictionary with database stats
"""
with db_session() as session:
total_snapshots = session.query(PDFSnapshot).count()
total_predictions = session.query(Prediction).count()
total_matches = session.query(PatternMatch).count()
evaluated_predictions = session.query(Prediction).filter(
Prediction.actual_outcome.isnot(None)
).count()
# Get date range
first_snapshot = session.query(PDFSnapshot).order_by(PDFSnapshot.timestamp).first()
last_snapshot = session.query(PDFSnapshot).order_by(desc(PDFSnapshot.timestamp)).first()
return {
'total_snapshots': total_snapshots,
'total_predictions': total_predictions,
'evaluated_predictions': evaluated_predictions,
'pending_predictions': total_predictions - evaluated_predictions,
'total_pattern_matches': total_matches,
'first_snapshot_date': first_snapshot.timestamp if first_snapshot else None,
'last_snapshot_date': last_snapshot.timestamp if last_snapshot else None,
}
if __name__ == "__main__":
# Test PDF archive
print("Testing PDF Archive...")
# Create archive
archive = PDFArchive()
print("β
Archive created")
# Create test snapshot
test_strikes = np.linspace(400, 500, 100)
test_pdf = np.exp(-0.5 * ((test_strikes - 450) / 15)**2)
test_pdf = test_pdf / np.trapz(test_pdf, test_strikes)
test_stats = {
'mean': 450.0,
'std': 15.0,
'skewness': -0.1,
'excess_kurtosis': 0.3,
'implied_move_pct': 3.5
}
# Store snapshot
snapshot = archive.store_snapshot(
ticker='SPY',
spot_price=450.0,
days_to_expiry=30,
expiration_date=datetime.utcnow() + timedelta(days=30),
risk_free_rate=0.05,
strikes=test_strikes,
pdf_values=test_pdf,
statistics=test_stats,
interpretation="Test interpretation"
)
print(f"β
Stored snapshot: {snapshot}")
# Retrieve snapshot
retrieved = archive.get_snapshot_by_id(snapshot.id)
print(f"β
Retrieved snapshot: {retrieved}")
# Get stats
stats = archive.get_database_stats()
print(f"β
Database stats: {stats}")
print("\nβ
All PDF archive tests passed!")
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