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6d0443f b1aa569 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f 5e3c87c 6d0443f 5e3c87c 6d0443f 98c6d32 6d0443f 98c6d32 fa4e17e 6d0443f b5fbe90 6d0443f 5e3c87c fa4e17e 6d0443f b5fbe90 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f 5e3c87c 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f fa4e17e 6d0443f 7680ea9 b5fbe90 7680ea9 b5fbe90 6d0443f b1aa569 5e3c87c b1aa569 6d0443f b5fbe90 6d0443f 5e3c87c 6d0443f 98c6d32 8ede616 98c6d32 8ede616 b5fbe90 8ede616 7680ea9 6d0443f | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 | import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import torch
from torch import nn, optim
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, mean_absolute_error, r2_score
from torch.utils.data import DataLoader, TensorDataset
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import os
def create_sequences(data, window_size, horizon=1):
X, y = [], []
for i in range(len(data) - window_size - horizon + 1):
X.append(data[i:i + window_size])
y.append(data[i + window_size:i + window_size + horizon].flatten())
return np.array(X), np.array(y)
def mean_absolute_percentage_error(y_true, y_pred):
"""Calculate MAPE, avoiding division by zero."""
y_true, y_pred = np.array(y_true), np.array(y_pred)
non_zero = np.abs(y_true) > 0
if np.sum(non_zero) == 0:
return np.nan # Return NaN if all true values are zero
return np.mean(np.abs((y_true[non_zero] - y_pred[non_zero]) / y_true[non_zero])) * 100
def train_and_evaluate(
df,
model_cls,
horizon=1,
hidden=64,
layers=1,
epochs=50,
lr=0.001,
beta1=0.9, # Added
beta2=0.999, # Added
weight_decay=0.01, # Added
dropout=0.2, # Added
window=30,
test_split=0.2,
device="cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu",
verbose=True
):
result = {}
original_values = df['value'].values.astype(np.float32)
scaler = StandardScaler()
scaled_data = scaler.fit_transform(original_values.reshape(-1, 1))
X, y = create_sequences(scaled_data, window, horizon)
print(f"X shape: {X.shape}, y shape: {y.shape}")
split = int(len(X) * (1 - test_split))
val_split = int(split * 0.9)
X_train, X_val, X_test = X[:val_split], X[val_split:split], X[split:]
y_train, y_val, y_test = y[:val_split], y[val_split:split], y[split:]
print(f"X_train shape: {X_train.shape}, y_train shape: {y_train.shape}")
print(f"X_val shape: {X_val.shape}, y_val shape: {y_val.shape}")
print(f"X_test shape: {X_test.shape}, y_test shape: {y_test.shape}")
X_train_tensor = torch.tensor(X_train, dtype=torch.float32)
y_train_tensor = torch.tensor(y_train, dtype=torch.float32)
X_val_tensor = torch.tensor(X_val, dtype=torch.float32)
y_val_tensor = torch.tensor(y_val, dtype=torch.float32)
X_test_tensor = torch.tensor(X_test, dtype=torch.float32)
y_test_tensor = torch.tensor(y_test, dtype=torch.float32)
train_loader = DataLoader(TensorDataset(X_train_tensor, y_train_tensor), batch_size=32, shuffle=True)
val_loader = DataLoader(TensorDataset(X_val_tensor, y_val_tensor), batch_size=32, shuffle=False)
test_loader = DataLoader(TensorDataset(X_test_tensor, y_test_tensor), batch_size=32, shuffle=False)
input_dim = X_train.shape[2] if X_train.ndim == 3 else 1
model = model_cls(input_size=input_dim, hidden_size=hidden, num_layers=layers, output_size=horizon, dropout=dropout).to(device)
optimizer = torch.optim.AdamW(model.parameters(), lr=lr, betas=(beta1, beta2), weight_decay=weight_decay)
loss_fn = nn.MSELoss()
train_losses = []
val_losses = []
best_val_loss = float('inf')
patience = 5
counter = 0
best_model_state = None
model.train()
for epoch in range(epochs):
epoch_loss = 0.0
for xb, yb in train_loader:
xb, yb = xb.to(device), yb.to(device)
optimizer.zero_grad()
out = model(xb)
loss = loss_fn(out, yb)
loss.backward()
optimizer.step()
epoch_loss += loss.item()
train_losses.append(epoch_loss / len(train_loader))
model.eval()
val_loss = 0.0
with torch.no_grad():
for xb, yb in val_loader:
xb, yb = xb.to(device), yb.to(device)
out = model(xb)
loss = loss_fn(out, yb)
val_loss += loss.item()
val_loss /= len(val_loader)
val_losses.append(val_loss)
if verbose and (epoch + 1) % 10 == 0:
print(f"Epoch {epoch+1}/{epochs} - Train Loss: {train_losses[-1]:.4f}, Val Loss: {val_losses[-1]:.4f}")
if val_loss < best_val_loss:
best_val_loss = val_loss
counter = 0
best_model_state = model.state_dict()
else:
counter += 1
if counter >= patience:
print(f"Early stopping at epoch {epoch+1}")
break
if best_model_state:
model.load_state_dict(best_model_state)
result["train_loss"] = train_losses
result["val_loss"] = val_losses
model.eval()
preds, targets = [], []
with torch.no_grad():
for xb, yb in test_loader:
xb = xb.to(device)
out = model(xb).cpu().numpy()
preds.append(out)
targets.append(yb.numpy())
preds = np.concatenate(preds, axis=0)
targets = np.concatenate(targets, axis=0)
print(f"Preds shape: {preds.shape}, Targets shape: {targets.shape}")
preds_reshaped = preds.reshape(-1, 1)
targets_reshaped = targets.reshape(-1, 1)
preds_inv = scaler.inverse_transform(preds_reshaped).reshape(preds.shape)
targets_inv = scaler.inverse_transform(targets_reshaped).reshape(targets.shape)
mse = mean_squared_error(targets_inv, preds_inv)
rmse = np.sqrt(mse)
mae = mean_absolute_error(targets_inv, preds_inv)
r2 = r2_score(targets_inv, preds_inv)
mape = mean_absolute_percentage_error(targets_inv, preds_inv)
result["metrics"] = {
"R2": round(r2, 4),
"RMSE": round(rmse, 4),
"MAE": round(mae, 4),
"MAPE": round(mape, 4) if not np.isnan(mape) else None
}
result["forecast"] = preds_inv
result["actual"] = targets_inv
result["predicted"] = result["forecast"]
latest_window = scaled_data[-window:].reshape(1, window, 1)
latest_input = torch.tensor(latest_window, dtype=torch.float32).to(device)
with torch.no_grad():
future_pred = model(latest_input).cpu().numpy()
future_pred_reshaped = future_pred.reshape(-1, 1)
future_pred_inv = scaler.inverse_transform(future_pred_reshaped).reshape(future_pred.shape)
result["latest_prediction"] = future_pred_inv[0].tolist()
return result |