diagnose_filter_potential.py

"""
Leakage-free signal diagnostic.

Answers: given only features known at buy_time (with symbol/expiry/weekday
dropped), is there any predictable separation between 1:1 winners and losers?

Runs three passes:
  1) Univariate separation per feature (AUC of feature vs label)
  2) Walk-forward LightGBM with cost-aware net-PnL threshold selection
  3) Walk-forward logistic baseline (sanity check)
"""
from pathlib import Path
import warnings
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")

BASE_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
OUT_DIR = BASE_DIR / "outputs"
DATA_PATH = OUT_DIR / "ml_dataset_exact_all_v2_2026-01-01_to_2026-04-01_merged.csv"

# Columns that are either identifiers, ground-truth times, or leaky post-entry info
LEAKY_OR_ID_COLS = [
    "trade_key", "trade_date", "weekday", "symbol", "option_symbol",
    "strike", "expiry", "trade_side", "variant", "mode", "call_put",
    "bt_buy_signal_time", "bt_sell_signal_time", "bt_buy_time",
    "bt_buy_price", "bt_stop_loss", "bt_target_1", "bt_target_2",
    "bt_qty_per_lot", "bt_capital_per_lot", "bt_stop_loss_amt_per_lot",
    "signal_time", "confirmation_time", "indication_time", "buy_time",
    "replay_t1_time", "replay_t2_time",
    "label_1to1", "label_1to2",
    "net_pnl_per_lot",  # outcome-derived, never a feature
]

TARGET = "label_1to1"

BROKERAGE = 40.0
STT_RATE = 0.001
TXN_RATE = 0.0003503
SEBI_RATE = 0.000001
STAMP_RATE = 0.00003
GST_RATE = 0.18


def round_trip_charges(buy_price, exit_price, qty):
    buy_t = buy_price * qty
    sell_t = exit_price * qty
    turn = buy_t + sell_t
    brokerage = BROKERAGE
    stt = STT_RATE * sell_t
    txn = TXN_RATE * turn
    sebi = SEBI_RATE * turn
    stamp = STAMP_RATE * buy_t
    gst = GST_RATE * (brokerage + txn + sebi)
    return brokerage + stt + txn + sebi + stamp + gst


def per_trade_net_pnl(row):
    """Net PnL for one lot based on 1:1 outcome."""
    buy = float(row["option_entry_price"])
    sl = float(row["stop_loss"])
    t1 = float(row["target_1"])
    qty = float(row.get("lot_size") or 0)
    if qty <= 0 or buy <= 0:
        return 0.0

    if int(row[TARGET]) == 1:
        exit_price = t1
        gross = (t1 - buy) * qty
    else:
        exit_price = sl
        gross = -(buy - sl) * qty
    charges = round_trip_charges(buy, exit_price, qty)
    return gross - charges


def build_features(df):
    feat_cols = [c for c in df.columns if c not in LEAKY_OR_ID_COLS]
    X = df[feat_cols].copy()

    # Replace sector with one-hot (generalizes across symbols) if present
    cat_cols = [c for c in X.columns if X[c].dtype == object]
    for c in cat_cols:
        X[c] = X[c].fillna("UNKNOWN").astype(str)
    X = pd.get_dummies(X, columns=cat_cols, dummy_na=False)

    # Coerce remaining to numeric, fill NaN
    for c in X.columns:
        X[c] = pd.to_numeric(X[c], errors="coerce")
    X = X.fillna(X.median(numeric_only=True)).fillna(0.0)
    return X, feat_cols


def univariate_auc(X, y):
    from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score
    rows = []
    for c in X.columns:
        vals = X[c].values
        if len(np.unique(vals)) < 2:
            continue
        try:
            auc = roc_auc_score(y, vals)
            auc = max(auc, 1 - auc)  # symmetric — we just care about separation
        except Exception:
            continue
        rows.append((c, auc))
    out = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["feature", "auc"]).sort_values("auc", ascending=False)
    return out


def walk_forward_lgbm(df, X, y, pnl):
    from sklearn.ensemble import HistGradientBoostingClassifier
    from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score

    df = df.reset_index(drop=True)
    X = X.reset_index(drop=True)
    y = y.reset_index(drop=True)
    pnl = pnl.reset_index(drop=True)

    df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["trade_date"])
    all_days = sorted(df["trade_date"].dt.date.unique())

    train_days = 30
    test_days = 5

    results = []

    i = train_days
    while i + test_days <= len(all_days):
        train_day_set = set(all_days[i - train_days:i])
        test_day_set = set(all_days[i:i + test_days])

        tr_mask = df["trade_date"].dt.date.isin(train_day_set).values
        te_mask = df["trade_date"].dt.date.isin(test_day_set).values

        if tr_mask.sum() < 500 or te_mask.sum() < 50:
            i += test_days
            continue

        # Split train window into inner-train (first 80%) and holdout (last 20%)
        train_days_list = sorted(train_day_set)
        cut = max(1, int(len(train_days_list) * 0.8))
        inner_train_set = set(train_days_list[:cut])
        holdout_set = set(train_days_list[cut:])

        itr_mask = df["trade_date"].dt.date.isin(inner_train_set).values
        ho_mask = df["trade_date"].dt.date.isin(holdout_set).values

        model = HistGradientBoostingClassifier(
            max_iter=200,
            max_depth=6,
            learning_rate=0.05,
            min_samples_leaf=30,
            l2_regularization=1.0,
            random_state=42,
        )
        model.fit(X.iloc[itr_mask], y.iloc[itr_mask])
        prob_ho = model.predict_proba(X.iloc[ho_mask])[:, 1]
        prob_te = model.predict_proba(X.iloc[te_mask])[:, 1]

        te_y = y.iloc[te_mask].values
        te_pnl = pnl.iloc[te_mask].values
        ho_y = y.iloc[ho_mask].values
        ho_pnl = pnl.iloc[ho_mask].values

        try:
            auc = roc_auc_score(te_y, prob_te)
        except Exception:
            auc = np.nan

        base_rate = te_y.mean()
        base_pnl_per_trade = te_pnl.mean()
        total_trades = len(te_y)

        # Pick threshold on HOLDOUT (never looks at test), apply to test
        best_ho_pnl = -1e18
        best_thr = None
        for thr in np.arange(0.30, 0.91, 0.02):
            picked = prob_ho >= thr
            if picked.sum() < 5:
                continue
            sub = ho_pnl[picked].sum()
            if sub > best_ho_pnl:
                best_ho_pnl = sub
                best_thr = thr

        # Also track oracle (test-picked) for reference on how much headroom exists
        oracle_pnl = -1e18
        oracle_thr = None
        for thr in np.arange(0.30, 0.91, 0.02):
            picked = prob_te >= thr
            if picked.sum() < 5:
                continue
            sub = te_pnl[picked].sum()
            if sub > oracle_pnl:
                oracle_pnl = sub
                oracle_thr = thr

        if best_thr is not None:
            picked_te = prob_te >= best_thr
            out_thr_pnl = float(te_pnl[picked_te].sum())
            out_n = int(picked_te.sum())
            out_win = float(te_y[picked_te].mean()) if picked_te.sum() > 0 else float("nan")
        else:
            out_thr_pnl = 0.0
            out_n = 0
            out_win = float("nan")

        results.append({
            "train_start": str(min(train_day_set)),
            "test_start": str(min(test_day_set)),
            "test_end": str(max(test_day_set)),
            "n_train": int(tr_mask.sum()),
            "n_test": total_trades,
            "auc": auc,
            "base_rate": base_rate,
            "base_total_net_pnl": float(te_pnl.sum()),
            "thr_holdout": best_thr,
            "n_picked_oos": out_n,
            "win_rate_oos": out_win,
            "pnl_oos": out_thr_pnl,
            "thr_oracle": oracle_thr,
            "pnl_oracle": float(oracle_pnl) if oracle_thr is not None else 0.0,
        })
        i += test_days

    return pd.DataFrame(results)


def main():
    print(f"Loading {DATA_PATH.name}...")
    df = pd.read_csv(DATA_PATH)
    df = df[df[TARGET].isin([0, 1])].copy()
    df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["trade_date"])
    print(f"Rows: {len(df)}  Date range: {df['trade_date'].min().date()} -> {df['trade_date'].max().date()}")
    print(f"Base rate label_1to1: {df[TARGET].mean():.4f}")

    print("\nComputing per-trade net PnL (1 lot)...")
    pnl = df.apply(per_trade_net_pnl, axis=1)
    df["net_pnl_per_lot"] = pnl
    print(f"Mean net PnL per trade (take-all): {pnl.mean():.2f}")
    print(f"Total net PnL (take-all): {pnl.sum():.0f}")
    print(f"Winners mean net PnL: {pnl[df[TARGET] == 1].mean():.2f}")
    print(f"Losers  mean net PnL: {pnl[df[TARGET] == 0].mean():.2f}")
    breakeven_rate = (-pnl[df[TARGET] == 0].mean()) / (pnl[df[TARGET] == 1].mean() - pnl[df[TARGET] == 0].mean())
    print(f"Implied breakeven win rate: {breakeven_rate:.4f}")

    print("\nBuilding features (dropping symbol/expiry/weekday/ids)...")
    X, feat_cols = build_features(df)
    y = df[TARGET].astype(int)
    print(f"Feature cols after drops: {len(X.columns)}")

    print("\n--- Univariate AUC per feature (top 20) ---")
    uni = univariate_auc(X, y)
    print(uni.head(20).to_string(index=False))

    print("\n--- Walk-forward LightGBM (30d train, 5d test) ---")
    wf = walk_forward_lgbm(df, X, y, pnl)
    if wf.empty:
        print("Not enough data for walk-forward")
        return

    print(wf[[
        "test_start", "test_end", "n_test", "auc",
        "base_rate", "base_total_net_pnl",
        "thr_holdout", "n_picked_oos", "win_rate_oos", "pnl_oos",
        "thr_oracle", "pnl_oracle",
    ]].round(4).to_string(index=False))

    print("\n--- Summary ---")
    print(f"Mean test AUC: {wf['auc'].mean():.4f}  (0.5 = no signal)")
    print(f"Median test AUC: {wf['auc'].median():.4f}")
    print(f"Take-all total net PnL across all test windows: {wf['base_total_net_pnl'].sum():.0f}")
    print(f"OOS (threshold picked on holdout) total PnL: {wf['pnl_oos'].sum():.0f}")
    print(f"ORACLE (threshold picked on test) total PnL: {wf['pnl_oracle'].sum():.0f}  [upper bound]")
    print(f"OOS windows profitable: {(wf['pnl_oos'] > 0).sum()}/{len(wf)}")
    print(f"OOS windows beating take-all: {(wf['pnl_oos'] > wf['base_total_net_pnl']).sum()}/{len(wf)}")

    wf.to_csv(OUT_DIR / "diagnose_filter_walkforward.csv", index=False)
    uni.to_csv(OUT_DIR / "diagnose_filter_univariate_auc.csv", index=False)
    print(f"\nWrote: outputs/diagnose_filter_walkforward.csv")
    print(f"Wrote: outputs/diagnose_filter_univariate_auc.csv")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()