File size: 13,584 Bytes
d4397a6
 
169601b
 
 
 
86cf9ec
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
 
d4397a6
169601b
 
 
86cf9ec
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
86cf9ec
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
 
 
 
d4397a6
169601b
86cf9ec
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
 
 
 
 
d4397a6
86cf9ec
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
 
 
86cf9ec
d4397a6
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
d4397a6
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
d4397a6
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
 
 
 
86cf9ec
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
d4397a6
169601b
 
 
 
 
 
 
86cf9ec
169601b
 
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
169601b
d4397a6
169601b
 
 
 
 
 
86cf9ec
169601b
86cf9ec
 
 
 
 
 
169601b
 
d4397a6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.004,0.116
Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.068,0.007,0.144
Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.069,0.013,0.135
Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.083,0.034,0.145
Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.09,0.034,0.152
Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.052,0.194
Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.096,0.032,0.162
Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.072,0.012,0.146
Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.144,0.05,0.249
Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.066,0.228
Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.158,0.103,0.218
Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.192,0.104,0.283
Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.118,0.24
Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.141,0.283
Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.255,0.4
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.131,0.004
TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.004,0.041
TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,0.001,0.034
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,0.008,0.064
TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.04,0.002,0.094
TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.07,0.017,0.151
TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.046,0.022,0.07
TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.021,-0.077,0.098
TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.097,-0.013,0.206
TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.095,-0.005,0.19
TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.073,0.157
TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.076,0.243
TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.133,0.089,0.18
TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.111,0.229
TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.221,0.371
TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.073,-0.169,-0.007
TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.043,0.004
TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.001,-0.025,0.024
TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.013,0.041
TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.017,0.069
TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,0.002,0.123
TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.03,-0.002,0.058
TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.004,-0.104,0.079
TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.081,-0.044,0.195
TiRex,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,-0.035,0.181
TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.097,0.055,0.142
TiRex,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.059,0.221
TiRex,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.119,0.07,0.168
TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.154,0.1,0.217
TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.214,0.351
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.156,-0.014
Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.035,-0.001
Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.001,-0.024,0.024
Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.015,-0.006,0.043
Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.016,0.077
Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.005,0.136
Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.029,0.006,0.052
Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.004,-0.101,0.086
Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.081,-0.036,0.196
Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,-0.033,0.176
Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.096,0.06,0.136
Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.058,0.228
Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.118,0.076,0.163
Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.153,0.096,0.221
Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.208,0.361
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.169,-0.035
Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.033,-0.069,-0.008
Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.043,0.013
Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.015,-0.045,0.006
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.725,0.008,-0.017,0.04
Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.003,0.099
Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.014,-0.028,0.046
Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.012,-0.117,0.07
Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.067,-0.063,0.188
Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.065,-0.055,0.168
Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,0.04,0.13
Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.055,0.198
Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.049,0.158
Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.205
Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.207,0.334
FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.099,-0.179,-0.036
FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.042,-0.104,-0.002
FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.025,-0.074,0.016
FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.083,0.015
FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.275,0.7,-0.008,-0.041,0.017
FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.001,0.068
FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.006,-0.068,0.053
FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.02,-0.131,0.07
FlowState,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.059,-0.082,0.187
FlowState,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.057,-0.075,0.169
FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.075,0.003,0.137
FlowState,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.112,0.06,0.168
FlowState,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,0.015,0.165
FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.133,0.051,0.208
FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.207,0.312
Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.241,-0.055
Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.075,-0.178,-0.018
Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.058,-0.14,-0.002
Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.157,0.005
Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.041,-0.11,0.003
Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.073,-0.001
Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.026,-0.134,0.044
Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.053,-0.179,0.041
Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.028,-0.145,0.171
Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.13,0.156
Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.045,-0.059,0.124
Sundial-Base,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.083,0.034,0.128
Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.068,-0.047,0.15
Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.0,0.193
Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.197,0.268
Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.106,-0.194,-0.033
Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.048,-0.075,-0.023
Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.031,-0.062,0.002
Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.03,-0.055,-0.006
Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.014,-0.048,0.027
Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.006,-0.056,0.064
Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.025,-0.046,0.118
Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.026,-0.134,0.061
Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.053,-0.07,0.173
Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.067,0.156
Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,0.029,0.109
Toto-1.0,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.106,0.022,0.213
Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.049,0.133
Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.07,0.19
Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.179,0.344
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.078,-0.171,-0.012
TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.021,-0.109,0.071
TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.004,-0.085,0.094
TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.004,-0.094,0.092
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.075,0.105
TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.02,-0.075,0.116
TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.05,-0.043,0.152
TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.026,-0.065,0.118
TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.077,-0.024,0.181
TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,-0.014,0.165
TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.093,0.014,0.179
TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.129,0.0,0.252
TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.115,0.031,0.201
TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.07,0.234
TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.271,0.187,0.362
LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.168,-0.331,-0.053
LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.107,-0.259,0.013
LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.089,-0.242,0.042
LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.088,-0.244,0.035
LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.232,0.059
LightGBM,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.063,-0.231,0.076
LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.029,-0.206,0.127
LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.056,-0.209,0.066
LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.084,-0.22,0.023
LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
LightGBM,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.002,-0.039,0.037
LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.017,-0.144,0.137
LightGBM,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.056,-0.115,0.219
LightGBM,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,-0.114,0.16
LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.079,-0.075,0.195
LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.21,0.055,0.348
CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.166,-0.295,-0.07
CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.105,-0.234,0.005
CatBoost,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.087,-0.22,0.034
CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.214,0.032
CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.202,0.052
CatBoost,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.061,-0.204,0.07
CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.185,0.115
CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.054,-0.184,0.063
CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.082,-0.197,0.014
CatBoost,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.002,-0.039,0.037
CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.019,-0.107,0.132
CatBoost,TFT,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.058,-0.093,0.212
CatBoost,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.042,-0.085,0.151
CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.08,-0.057,0.192
CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.211,0.072,0.342
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.188,-0.278,-0.115
Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.187,-0.078
Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.107,-0.165,-0.058
Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.106,-0.158,-0.064
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.149,-0.041
Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.081,-0.159,-0.003
Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.047,-0.141,0.056
Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.122,-0.03
Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.102,-0.218,-0.014
Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.017,-0.158,0.126
Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.019,-0.151,0.096
Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.04,-0.062,0.161
Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.024,0.005,0.046
Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.063,0.019,0.11
Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.196,0.112,0.293
TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.395,-0.116
TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.173,-0.321,-0.082
TFT,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.283,-0.062
TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.295,-0.062
TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.247,-0.058
TFT,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.126,-0.201,-0.063
TFT,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.091,-0.147,-0.035
TFT,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.119,-0.271,-0.023
TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.148,-0.337,-0.0
TFT,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.06,-0.281,0.103
TFT,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.062,-0.268,0.085
TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.042,-0.191,0.059
TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TFT,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.016,-0.176,0.088
TFT,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.132,0.135
TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.162,0.11,0.219
AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.316,-0.133
AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.154,-0.22,-0.098
AutoETS,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.135,-0.202,-0.075
AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.134,-0.195,-0.083
AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.188,-0.052
AutoETS,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.108,-0.197,-0.016
AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.073,-0.176,0.045
AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.153,-0.051
AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.13,-0.251,-0.032
AutoETS,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.191,0.102
AutoETS,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.044,-0.178,0.079
AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.025,-0.048,-0.005
AutoETS,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.097,0.15
AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.015,0.097
AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.176,0.084,0.283
AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.395,-0.164
AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.297,-0.125
AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.182,-0.278,-0.111
AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.181,-0.283,-0.106
AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.258,-0.083
AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.263,-0.054
AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.239,-0.0
AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.146,-0.234,-0.076
AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.306,-0.075
AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.242,0.07
AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.087,-0.238,0.054
AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.067,-0.124,-0.019
AutoARIMA,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.024,-0.156,0.117
AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.107,0.015
AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.039,0.25
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.668,-0.342
Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.591,-0.283
Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.541,-0.272
Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.565,-0.263
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.501,-0.261
Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.453,-0.261
Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.366,-0.246
Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.524,-0.217
Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.371,-0.568,-0.23
Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.265,-0.534,-0.058
Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.267,-0.519,-0.077
Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.244,-0.414,-0.127
Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.194,-0.28,-0.124
Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.214,-0.395,-0.092
Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.333,-0.04
Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0