Spaces:
Running
Running
| model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper | |
| Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027 | |
| Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072 | |
| Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.061,0.027,0.114 | |
| Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.053,0.164 | |
| Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.037,0.182 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224 | |
| Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.231 | |
| Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.45 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.264,0.448 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.295,0.468 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.267,0.469 | |
| Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.377,0.689 | |
| Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.529 | |
| Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.414,0.702 | |
| Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.011,-0.028,0.059 | |
| Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071 | |
| Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128 | |
| Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168 | |
| Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.07,0.182 | |
| Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231 | |
| Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.092,0.234 | |
| Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.272,0.454 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.266,0.453 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.296,0.47 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.281,0.468 | |
| Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.386,0.689 | |
| Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534 | |
| Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.704 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.078,0.02 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.041,0.137 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.126,0.059,0.207 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.261,0.415 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.254,0.415 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.436 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.268,0.433 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.366,0.676 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.402,0.69 | |
| TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022 | |
| TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0 | |
| TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065 | |
| TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,-0.026,0.115 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166 | |
| TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.018,0.172 | |
| TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.233,0.392 | |
| TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.231,0.382 | |
| TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.412 | |
| TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.235,0.41 | |
| TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.507,0.342,0.658 | |
| TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476 | |
| TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.385,0.676 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.056 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.017,-0.056,0.065 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.02,0.138 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.282,0.201,0.366 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.203,0.354 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.237,0.386 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.292,0.208,0.382 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.487,0.322,0.638 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.369,0.657 | |
| Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.223,-0.038 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.14,-0.222,-0.075 | |
| Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.159,-0.043 | |
| Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.059,-0.129,0.025 | |
| Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.018,-0.069,0.053 | |
| Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.023,0.126 | |
| Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.041,-0.034,0.11 | |
| Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.361 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.262,0.175,0.353 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.377 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.379 | |
| Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.322,0.626 | |
| Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.344,0.246,0.453 | |
| Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.358,0.646 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.288,-0.104 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.054,-0.144,0.022 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.128,0.086 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.23,0.124,0.336 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.222,0.121,0.337 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.353 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.24,0.131,0.358 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.297,0.601 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.341,0.624 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.176,-0.301,-0.081 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.102 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.144,-0.261,-0.063 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.104,-0.208,-0.019 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.161,0.019 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.043,-0.123,0.033 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.095,0.114 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.095,0.36 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.231,0.096,0.351 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.266,0.154,0.375 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.249,0.114,0.367 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.455,0.285,0.6 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.316,0.178,0.443 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.485,0.326,0.621 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.817,-0.362 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.833,-0.374 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.711,-0.353 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.449,-0.646,-0.304 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.393,-0.578,-0.251 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.369,-0.564,-0.223 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.298,-0.505,-0.141 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.562,-0.106 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.01,-0.058,0.025 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,-0.013,0.087 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.014,-0.091,0.087 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.285,0.06,0.51 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.624,0.925,0.103,-0.009,0.19 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.325,0.11,0.536 | |
| AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.811,-0.358 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.546,-0.83,-0.363 | |
| AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.708,-0.341 | |
| AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.619,-0.301 | |
| AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.548,-0.255 | |
| AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.355,-0.545,-0.212 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.286,-0.508,-0.137 | |
| AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.3,-0.541,-0.106 | |
| AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.01,-0.026,0.055 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.046,-0.017,0.107 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.725,0.549,0.9,0.024,-0.086,0.103 | |
| AutoARIMA,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.292,0.063,0.513 | |
| AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.112,0.008,0.197 | |
| AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.331,0.115,0.536 | |
| AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.881,-0.419 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.887,-0.421 | |
| AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.774,-0.394 | |
| AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.701,-0.356 | |
| AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.628,-0.31 | |
| AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.606,-0.282 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.546,-0.206 | |
| AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.363,-0.6,-0.182 | |
| AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.096,0.013 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.049,-0.12,0.017 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.024,-0.139,0.055 | |
| AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.258,0.05,0.468 | |
| AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.068,-0.06,0.171 | |
| AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.104,0.491 | |
| AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.883,-0.364 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.881,-0.391 | |
| AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.762,-0.366 | |
| AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.695,-0.307 | |
| AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.412,-0.619,-0.262 | |
| AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.388,-0.611,-0.225 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.317,-0.559,-0.151 | |
| AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.331,-0.581,-0.129 | |
| AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.014,-0.096,0.083 | |
| AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.1,0.451,-0.024,-0.115,0.079 | |
| AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.058,0.122 | |
| AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoETS,Naive,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.275,0.032,0.5 | |
| AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.026,0.154 | |
| AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.315,0.081,0.528 | |
| Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-2.211,-0.604 | |
| Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-2.214,-0.628 | |
| Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.101,-2.085,-0.578 | |
| Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.027,-1.923,-0.52 | |
| Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.948,-1.762,-0.475 | |
| Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.673,-0.476 | |
| Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.816,-1.505,-0.423 | |
| Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.836,-1.501,-0.399 | |
| Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.399,-1.041,-0.063 | |
| Naive,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.413,-1.052,-0.067 | |
| Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.347,-0.881,-0.053 | |
| Naive,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.379,-1.0,-0.033 | |
| Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,-0.255,-0.874,0.087 | |
| Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.031,0.085 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.122,-0.477 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.525,-0.83,-0.326 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.463,-0.796,-0.216 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.075,0.376,-0.115,-0.235,0.009 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.126,-0.245,-0.008 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.073,-0.206,0.057 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.181,-0.027 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,0.203,-0.096,0.466 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.247,-0.04,0.497 | |
| Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.286,-2.359,-0.705 | |
| Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.311,-2.381,-0.728 | |
| Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-2.223,-0.673 | |
| Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.146,-2.086,-0.627 | |
| Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.913,-0.584 | |
| Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.828,-0.559 | |
| Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.922,-1.659,-0.517 | |
| Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.943,-1.639,-0.484 | |
| Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.481,-1.157,-0.124 | |
| Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.495,-1.156,-0.13 | |
| Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.966,-0.116 | |
| Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.46,-1.12,-0.088 | |
| Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.093,-0.032 | |
| Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.329,-0.989,0.038 | |
| Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |