Spaces:
Running
Running
| model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper | |
| Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018 | |
| Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.024,0.076 | |
| Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104 | |
| Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169 | |
| Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.071,0.211 | |
| Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236 | |
| Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.291 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.369,0.537 | |
| Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.448,0.619 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.482,0.815 | |
| Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.54,0.72 | |
| Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.521,0.73 | |
| Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.817,0.735,0.877 | |
| Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.824,0.744,0.882 | |
| Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.018,0.074 | |
| Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09 | |
| Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139 | |
| Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2 | |
| Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 | |
| Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261 | |
| Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.162,0.3 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.381,0.55 | |
| Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.47,0.623 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.501,0.819 | |
| Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.555,0.727 | |
| Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735 | |
| Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.746,0.879 | |
| Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.828,0.756,0.883 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.029,-0.082,0.024 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.19,0.124,0.257 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.367,0.511 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.451,0.594 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.476,0.811 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.534,0.71 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.812,0.731,0.872 | |
| TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.819,0.742,0.877 | |
| TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.116,-0.023 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025 | |
| TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013 | |
| TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09 | |
| TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151 | |
| TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186 | |
| TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.166,0.079,0.247 | |
| TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.343,0.497 | |
| TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.425,0.585 | |
| TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.453,0.808 | |
| TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.513,0.698 | |
| TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709 | |
| TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.806,0.72,0.869 | |
| TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.729,0.874 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.203,-0.068 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14 | |
| Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.114,0.03,0.194 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.305,0.459 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.48,0.391,0.559 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.628,0.423,0.798 | |
| Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.593,0.49,0.673 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.794,0.704,0.859 | |
| Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.716,0.864 | |
| Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.268,-0.077 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 | |
| Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085 | |
| Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013 | |
| Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043 | |
| Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117 | |
| Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.006,0.138 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.281,0.436 | |
| Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.378,0.534 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.404,0.793 | |
| Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.487,0.657 | |
| Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668 | |
| Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.704,0.848 | |
| Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.794,0.716,0.854 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.142 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.038,-0.082,0.139 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.236,0.434 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.435,0.328,0.531 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.372,0.786 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.558,0.453,0.645 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.777,0.686,0.844 | |
| Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.7,0.851 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.271,-0.41,-0.151 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.429,-0.193 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.235,-0.346,-0.141 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.2,-0.328,-0.086 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.129,-0.24,-0.03 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.161,-0.006 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.04,-0.162,0.076 | |
| TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.205,0.404 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.412,0.312,0.505 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.586,0.354,0.779 | |
| TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.54,0.433,0.639 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.531,0.407,0.643 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.681,0.835 | |
| TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.696,0.841 | |
| AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.825,-1.161,-0.584 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.222,-0.615 | |
| AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.043,-0.58 | |
| AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-0.989,-0.521 | |
| AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.848,-0.438 | |
| AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.773,-0.392 | |
| AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.493,-0.768,-0.309 | |
| AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.677,-0.258 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.875,0.156,0.073,0.244 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.434,0.08,0.713 | |
| AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.476 | |
| AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.326,0.18,0.457 | |
| AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.667,0.521,0.764 | |
| AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.679,0.545,0.773 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.625,-0.811 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.654,-0.887 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.466,-0.82 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.042,-1.411,-0.739 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.921,-1.267,-0.642 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.145,-0.609 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.77,-1.134,-0.488 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.702,-1.019,-0.454 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.125,0.475,-0.185,-0.323,-0.078 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.363,-0.063,0.684 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.089,0.375 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.201,-0.013,0.369 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.605,0.443,0.725 | |
| Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.465,0.735 | |
| AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.991,-4.394,-0.932 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.072,-4.534,-1.004 | |
| AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.92,-4.291,-0.907 | |
| AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.837,-4.196,-0.83 | |
| AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.688,-3.95,-0.734 | |
| AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-3.825,-0.677 | |
| AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.484,-3.678,-0.591 | |
| AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.414,-3.528,-0.549 | |
| AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.767,-2.48,-0.087 | |
| AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.569,-2.162,0.059 | |
| AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.25,-1.708,0.289 | |
| AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.269,-1.702,0.285 | |
| AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.34,-0.612,0.679 | |
| AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.363,-0.555,0.692 | |
| AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.764,-2.575,-1.173 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.831,-2.661,-1.245 | |
| AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.686,-2.451,-1.145 | |
| AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.316,-1.054 | |
| AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.456,-2.054,-0.962 | |
| AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.355,-1.914,-0.951 | |
| AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.262,-1.821,-0.828 | |
| AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.175,-1.772,-0.765 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.515,-0.908,-0.255 | |
| AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.278,-0.6,-0.097 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.2,-0.407,0.631 | |
| AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.021,-0.413,0.245 | |
| AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.495,0.359,0.605 | |
| AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.514,0.382,0.62 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.086 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704 | |
| Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.13,-1.801,-0.687 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.483,-0.841,-0.219 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.252,-0.585,0.013 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.212,-0.398,0.63 | |
| Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.021,-0.325,0.292 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.505,0.274,0.671 | |
| Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.524,0.302,0.688 | |
| Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.472,-7.119,-2.772 | |
| Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.604,-7.24,-2.94 | |
| Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.318,-6.839,-2.721 | |
| Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-4.166,-6.661,-2.569 | |
| Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.861,-6.072,-2.376 | |
| Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-5.597,-2.374 | |
| Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.478,-5.427,-2.188 | |
| Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.306,-5.057,-2.139 | |
| Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.999,-3.24,-1.086 | |
| Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.53,-2.642,-0.795 | |
| Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.516,-2.117,0.38 | |
| Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.98,-1.531,-0.56 | |
| Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-1.021,-2.041,-0.378 | |
| Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |
| Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.057 | |
| Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.691,-7.48,-2.9 | |
| Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.828,-7.54,-3.102 | |
| Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.531,-7.137,-2.871 | |
| Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.373,-6.957,-2.696 | |
| Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.056,-6.361,-2.518 | |
| Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.85,-5.831,-2.522 | |
| Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.689,-2.332 | |
| Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.479,-5.272,-2.287 | |
| Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.119,-3.399,-1.198 | |
| Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.632,-2.779,-0.87 | |
| Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.569,-2.25,0.357 | |
| Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.059,-1.634,-0.617 | |
| Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-1.102,-2.206,-0.433 | |
| Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.061,-0.024 | |
| Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 | |