tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv

model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper
Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.014,0.151
Chronos-2,TiRex,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.014,0.137
Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.042,-0.034,0.118
Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.089,0.026,0.157
Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.113,0.024,0.197
Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.19,0.058,0.305
Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.141,0.077,0.214
Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.146,0.042,0.232
Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.225,0.091,0.344
Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.164,0.388
Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.257,0.153,0.352
Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413
Chronos-2,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413
Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.214,0.423
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.072,-0.177,0.014
TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.046,0.044
TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.028,-0.168,0.084
TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.023,-0.016,0.059
TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.049,-0.007,0.105
TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.528,0.941,0.132,-0.023,0.265
TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.079,0.006,0.147
TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.133
TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.169,0.019,0.303
TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.237,0.105,0.358
TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.101,0.303
TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36
TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36
TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.276,0.17,0.371
TiRex,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.158,-0.014
TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.046,0.044
TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.031,-0.156,0.07
TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.02,-0.019,0.053
TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.092
TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.129,0.001,0.247
TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.123
TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.081,-0.002,0.15
TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.166,0.031,0.288
TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.234,0.098,0.356
TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.2,0.103,0.295
TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367
TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367
TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.175,0.367
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.134,0.033
TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.027,-0.091,0.144
TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.03,-0.076,0.135
TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.049,-0.057,0.149
TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.075,-0.039,0.186
TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.155,0.006,0.275
TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.104,-0.001,0.207
TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.109,0.003,0.207
TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.191,0.047,0.312
TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.258,0.09,0.383
TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.096,0.333
TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403
TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403
TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.295,0.151,0.414
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.098,-0.186,-0.026
Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.024,-0.063,0.016
Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.02,-0.056,0.019
Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.175,0.054
Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.324,0.735,0.027,-0.023,0.093
Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,-0.025,0.234
Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.057,0.001,0.117
Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,0.003,0.116
Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.149,0.016,0.27
Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.219,0.086,0.338
Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.184,0.084,0.281
Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342
Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342
Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.259,0.152,0.354
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.128,-0.245,-0.025
Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.052,-0.117,0.007
Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.048,-0.102,-0.001
Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.081,-0.229,0.038
Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.265,0.676,-0.027,-0.103,0.022
Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.087,-0.039,0.204
Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.022,0.087
Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,-0.073,0.115
Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.126,-0.009,0.247
Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.198,0.043,0.332
Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.162,0.065,0.256
Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329
Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329
Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.238,0.143,0.326
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.235,-0.439,-0.061
Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.472,-0.152,-0.361,0.022
Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.148,-0.328,-0.001
Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.184,-0.38,-0.006
Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.305,0.025
Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.095,-0.256,0.037
Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.186,0.046
Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.054,-0.255,0.114
Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.043,0.009,0.076
Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.121,-0.012,0.275
Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.082,0.014,0.167
Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274
Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274
Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.166,0.086,0.243
Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.164,-0.272,-0.083
Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.086,-0.172,-0.006
Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.082,-0.14,-0.03
Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.116,-0.261,0.001
Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.06,-0.132,-0.001
Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.095,0.022
Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.048,0.157
Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.108,0.103
Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.098,-0.013,0.21
Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.172,0.041,0.293
Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.135,0.052,0.22
Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305
Toto-1.0,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305
Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.214,0.125,0.296
Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.171,-0.303,-0.044
Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.093,-0.154,-0.023
Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.177,0.002
Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.123,-0.261,-0.003
Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.132,-0.003
Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.129,0.068
Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.052,-0.129,0.203
Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.115,0.098
Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.092,-0.08,0.24
Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.167,0.001,0.308
Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.129,-0.002,0.242
Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298
Sundial-Base,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298
Sundial-Base,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.209,0.078,0.323
AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.291,-0.524,-0.1
AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.204,-0.435,-0.019
AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.199,-0.405,-0.032
AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.237,-0.454,-0.049
AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.176,-0.37,-0.016
AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.144,-0.328,0.009
AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.045,-0.082,-0.009
AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.109,-0.266,0.013
AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.102,-0.315,0.074
AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.082,-0.066,0.241
AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.041,-0.038,0.125
AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232
AutoETS,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232
AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.128,0.052,0.207
AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.406,-0.633,-0.196
AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.311,-0.557,-0.117
AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.306,-0.553,-0.109
AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.347,-0.621,-0.099
AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.281,-0.511,-0.094
AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.247,-0.498,-0.045
AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.138,-0.379,0.012
AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.208,-0.415,-0.043
AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.2,-0.445,-0.001
AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.089,-0.317,0.062
AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.045,-0.204,0.064
AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141
AutoARIMA,Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141
AutoARIMA,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.05,-0.122,0.172
AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.346,-0.542,-0.181
AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.255,-0.435,-0.112
AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.25,-0.419,-0.115
AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.499,-0.106
AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.226,-0.391,-0.092
AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.193,-0.345,-0.07
AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.2,-0.014
AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.156,-0.282,-0.054
AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.32,0.002
AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.043,-0.143,0.036
AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.043,-0.069,0.169
AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139
AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139
AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.041,0.143
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26
Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204
Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188
Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165
Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172
Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132
Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044
Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11
Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09
Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011
Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105
Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015
Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077
Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26
Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204
Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188
Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165
Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172
Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132
Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044
Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11
Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09
Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011
Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105
Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015
Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0
Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077
Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.481,-0.733,-0.273
Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.381,-0.589,-0.205
Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.58,-0.212
Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.419,-0.706,-0.178
Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.349,-0.548,-0.18
Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.313,-0.485,-0.166
Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.199,-0.321,-0.094
Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.272,-0.421,-0.143
Drift,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.264,-0.478,-0.085
Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.147,-0.262,-0.055
Drift,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.053,-0.208,0.109
Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.167,-0.043
Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054
Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054
Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0