diff --git a/pages/chronos_bench_ii.py b/pages/chronos_bench_ii.py deleted file mode 100644 index 6ed26f9df6fca52151170e400c6c94e1d359b594..0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 --- a/pages/chronos_bench_ii.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,179 +0,0 @@ -import sys -from pathlib import Path - -sys.path.append(str(Path(__file__).parent.parent)) - -import fev -import pandas as pd -import streamlit as st -from streamlit.elements.lib.column_types import ColumnConfig - -from src.strings import ( - CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO, - CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, - CITATION_CHRONOS, - CITATION_FEV, - CITATION_HEADER, - PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, - get_pivot_legend, -) -from src.utils import ( - construct_bar_chart, - construct_pairwise_chart, - construct_pivot_table, - format_leaderboard, - format_metric_name, - get_metric_description, -) - -st.set_page_config(layout="wide", page_title="FEV Benchmark Leaderboard", page_icon=":material/trophy:") - -TITLE = "

Chronos Benchmark II

" -BASELINE_MODEL = "seasonal_naive" -LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL = "chronos_bolt_base" -SORT_COL = "win_rate" -N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI = 1000 -TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT = 15 -AVAILABLE_METRICS = ["WQL", "MASE"] -SUMMARY_URLS = [ - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_arima.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_ets.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/auto_theta.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_base.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_large.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_mini.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_small.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_tiny.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_base.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_mini.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_small.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/chronos_bolt_tiny.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_base.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_large.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/moirai_small.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/seasonal_naive.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/timesfm-2.0.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/ttm-r2.csv", - "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/autogluon/fev/refs/heads/main/benchmarks/chronos_zeroshot/results/tirex.csv", -] - - -@st.cache_data() -def load_summaries(): - summaries = [] - for url in SUMMARY_URLS: - df = pd.read_csv(url) - summaries.append(df) - return pd.concat(summaries, ignore_index=True) - - -@st.cache_data() -def get_leaderboard(metric_name: str) -> pd.DataFrame: - summaries = load_summaries() - lb = fev.analysis.leaderboard( - summaries=summaries, - metric_column=metric_name, - missing_strategy="impute", - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - ) - lb = lb.astype("float64").reset_index() - - lb["skill_score"] = lb["skill_score"] * 100 - lb["win_rate"] = lb["win_rate"] * 100 - lb["num_failures"] = lb["num_failures"] / summaries["task_name"].nunique() * 100 - return lb - - -@st.cache_data() -def get_pairwise(metric_name: str, included_models: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: - if BASELINE_MODEL not in included_models: - included_models = included_models + [BASELINE_MODEL] - summaries = load_summaries() - return ( - fev.analysis.pairwise_comparison( - summaries, - included_models=included_models, - metric_column=metric_name, - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - missing_strategy="impute", - n_resamples=N_RESAMPLES_FOR_CI, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - ) - .round(3) - .reset_index() - ) - - -with st.sidebar: - selected_metric = st.selectbox("Evaluation Metric", options=AVAILABLE_METRICS, format_func=format_metric_name) - st.caption(get_metric_description(selected_metric)) - -cols = st.columns(spec=[0.025, 0.95, 0.025]) - -with cols[1] as main_container: - st.markdown(TITLE, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - metric_df = get_leaderboard(selected_metric).sort_values(by=SORT_COL, ascending=False) - top_k_models = metric_df.head(TOP_K_MODELS_TO_PLOT)["model_name"].tolist() - pairwise_df = get_pairwise(selected_metric, included_models=top_k_models) - - st.markdown("## :material/trophy: Leaderboard", unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.markdown(CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_BASIC_INFO, unsafe_allow_html=True) - df_styled = format_leaderboard(metric_df) - st.dataframe( - df_styled, - use_container_width=True, - hide_index=True, - column_config={ - "model_name": ColumnConfig(label="Model Name", alignment="left"), - "win_rate": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Avg. win rate (%)", format="%.1f"), - "skill_score": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Skill score (%)", format="%.1f"), - "median_inference_time_s": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Median runtime (s)", format="%.1f"), - "training_corpus_overlap": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Leakage (%)", format="%d"), - "num_failures": st.column_config.NumberColumn(label="Failed tasks (%)", format="%.0f"), - "zero_shot": ColumnConfig(label="Zero-shot", alignment="center"), - "org": ColumnConfig(label="Organization", alignment="left"), - "link": st.column_config.LinkColumn(label="Link", display_text=":material/open_in_new:"), - }, - ) - - with st.expander("See details"): - st.markdown(CHRONOS_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - st.markdown("## :material/bar_chart: Pairwise comparison", unsafe_allow_html=True) - chart_col_1, _, chart_col_2 = st.columns(spec=[0.45, 0.1, 0.45]) - - with chart_col_1: - st.altair_chart( - construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="win_rate", metric_name=selected_metric), - use_container_width=True, - ) - - with chart_col_2: - st.altair_chart( - construct_pairwise_chart(pairwise_df, col="skill_score", metric_name=selected_metric), - use_container_width=True, - ) - - with st.expander("See details"): - st.markdown(PAIRWISE_BENCHMARK_DETAILS, unsafe_allow_html=True) - - st.markdown("## :material/table_chart: Results for individual tasks", unsafe_allow_html=True) - with st.expander("Show detailed results"): - st.markdown(get_pivot_legend(BASELINE_MODEL, LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL), unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.dataframe( - construct_pivot_table( - summaries=load_summaries(), - metric_name=selected_metric, - baseline_model=BASELINE_MODEL, - leakage_imputation_model=LEAKAGE_IMPUTATION_MODEL, - ) - ) - - st.divider() - st.markdown("### :material/format_quote: Citation", unsafe_allow_html=True) - st.markdown(CITATION_HEADER) - st.markdown(CITATION_FEV) - st.markdown(CITATION_CHRONOS) diff --git a/save_tables.py b/save_tables.py index b46cdddbcb662be61cd6ccdeddada80821fda00b..983c2ff29dacb47eb5f9a42359ba9ce4a7415991 100644 --- a/save_tables.py +++ b/save_tables.py @@ -141,6 +141,22 @@ def compute_pivot_table(summaries: pd.DataFrame, metric_name: str) -> tuple[pd.D return errors.reset_index(), is_imputed_baseline.reset_index(), is_leakage_imputed.reset_index() +def load_summaries_from_local(path: Path) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Load and concatenate all CSV summaries from a local directory.""" + csv_files = sorted(path.glob("*.csv")) + if not csv_files: + raise FileNotFoundError(f"No CSV files found in {path}") + + print(f"Found {len(csv_files)} CSV files") + dfs = [] + for f in csv_files: + df = pd.read_csv(f) + dfs.append(df) + print(f" Loaded: {f.name}") + + return pd.concat(dfs, ignore_index=True) + + def main(): parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="Generate leaderboard tables from CSV summaries in the fev repo") parser.add_argument( @@ -149,14 +165,23 @@ def main(): default="main", help=f"Git commit SHA or branch name in the {GITHUB_REPO} repository (default: main)", ) + parser.add_argument( + "--local", + type=Path, + help="Path to a local directory containing result CSV files (skips GitHub fetching)", + ) args = parser.parse_args() # Create tables directory tables_dir = Path("tables") tables_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True) - print(f"Loading summaries from {GITHUB_REPO} at commit {args.commit}...") - summaries = load_summaries_from_github(args.commit) + if args.local: + print(f"Loading summaries from local path: {args.local}") + summaries = load_summaries_from_local(args.local) + else: + print(f"Loading summaries from {GITHUB_REPO} at commit {args.commit}...") + summaries = load_summaries_from_github(args.commit) # Save raw summaries for on-the-fly subset computation summaries.to_csv(tables_dir / "summaries.csv", index=False) diff --git a/src/strings.py b/src/strings.py index 5eef14e172685fc7fdb24dc485be3089d4ebf8a7..70c1307b3fb6aec3aea8e7201789308b52c157ed 100644 --- a/src/strings.py +++ b/src/strings.py @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ LEGEND = """ TABLE_INFO = f""" The leaderboard summarizes the performance of all models evaluated on the 100 tasks comprising **fev-bench**. More details available in the [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26468). -Model names are colored by type: Deep Learning and Statistical. +Model names are colored by type: Pretrained, Task-specific, and Statistical. The full matrix $E_{{rj}}$ with the error of each model $j$ on task $r$ is available at the bottom of the page. diff --git a/src/utils.py b/src/utils.py index 0f7777a9fe91e9e50f4fa0b240d8cb1aa1c945a5..4c6b4740a3098267a70463764c741035ad17c976 100644 --- a/src/utils.py +++ b/src/utils.py @@ -6,9 +6,9 @@ import pandas.io.formats.style # Color constants - all colors defined in one place COLORS = { - "dl_text": "#5A7FA5", - "st_text": "#A5795A", - # "st_text": "#666666", + "pretrained_text": "#5A7FA5", + "task_specific_text": "#7B5A9A", + "statistical_text": "#A5795A", "bar_fill": "#8d5eb7", "error_bar": "#222222", "point": "#111111", @@ -26,52 +26,60 @@ HEATMAP_COLOR_SCHEME = "purplegreen" # Model configuration: (url, org, zero_shot, model_type) MODEL_CONFIG = { # Chronos Models - "chronos_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-t5-tiny", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_mini": ("amazon/chronos-t5-mini", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_small": ("amazon/chronos-t5-small", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_base": ("amazon/chronos-t5-base", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_large": ("amazon/chronos-t5-large", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_mini": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-mini", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_small": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-small", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos_bolt_base": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos-bolt": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "DL"), - "chronos-2": ("amazon/chronos-2", "AWS", True, "DL"), + "chronos_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-t5-tiny", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_mini": ("amazon/chronos-t5-mini", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_small": ("amazon/chronos-t5-small", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_base": ("amazon/chronos-t5-base", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_large": ("amazon/chronos-t5-large", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_bolt_tiny": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-tiny", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_bolt_mini": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-mini", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_bolt_small": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-small", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos_bolt_base": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos-bolt": ("amazon/chronos-bolt-base", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), + "chronos-2": ("amazon/chronos-2", "AWS", True, "pretrained"), # Moirai Models - "moirai_large": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), - "moirai_base": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-base", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), - "moirai_small": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), - "moirai-2.0": ("Salesforce/moirai-2.0-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "DL"), + "moirai_large": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-large", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"), + "moirai_base": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-base", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"), + "moirai_small": ("Salesforce/moirai-1.1-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"), + "moirai-2.0": ("Salesforce/moirai-2.0-R-small", "Salesforce", True, "pretrained"), # TimesFM Models - "timesfm": ("google/timesfm-1.0-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"), - "timesfm-2.0": ("google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"), - "timesfm-2.5": ("google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "DL"), + "timesfm": ("google/timesfm-1.0-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "pretrained"), + "timesfm-2.0": ("google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch", "Google", True, "pretrained"), + "timesfm-2.5": ("google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch", "Google", True, "pretrained"), # Toto Models - "toto-1.0": ("Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0", "Datadog", True, "DL"), + "toto-1.0": ("Datadog/Toto-Open-Base-1.0", "Datadog", True, "pretrained"), # Other Models - "tirex": ("NX-AI/TiRex", "NX-AI", True, "DL"), - "tabpfn-ts": ("Prior-Labs/TabPFN-v2-reg", "Prior Labs", True, "DL"), - "sundial-base": ("thuml/sundial-base-128m", "Tsinghua University", True, "DL"), - "ttm-r2": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2", "IBM", True, "DL"), - # Task-specific models + "tirex": ("NX-AI/TiRex", "NX-AI", True, "pretrained"), + "tabpfn-ts": ("Prior-Labs/TabPFN-v2-reg", "Prior Labs", True, "pretrained"), + "sundial-base": ("thuml/sundial-base-128m", "Tsinghua University", True, "pretrained"), + "ttm-r2": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-ttm-r2", "IBM", True, "pretrained"), + "flowstate": ("ibm-granite/granite-timeseries-flowstate-r1", "IBM", True, "pretrained"), + # GluonTS Models + "deepar": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"), + "tft": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"), + "patchtst": ("https://github.com/awslabs/gluonts", "—", False, "task-specific"), + # MLForecast Models + "lightgbm": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/mlforecast", "—", False, "task-specific"), + "catboost": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/mlforecast", "—", False, "task-specific"), + # Statistical models "stat. ensemble": ( "https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, - "ST", + "statistical", ), - "autoarima": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "autotheta": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "autoets": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "seasonalnaive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), + "autoarima": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"), + "autotheta": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"), + "autoets": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"), + "seasonalnaive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"), "seasonal naive": ( "https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, - "ST", + "statistical", ), - "drift": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), - "naive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "ST"), + "drift": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"), + "naive": ("https://nixtlaverse.nixtla.io/statsforecast/", "—", False, "statistical"), } @@ -126,11 +134,18 @@ def get_model_type(model_name): return config[3] if config else "—" +MODEL_TYPE_COLORS = { + "pretrained": "pretrained_text", + "task-specific": "task_specific_text", + "statistical": "statistical_text", +} + + def highlight_model_type_color(cell): config = MODEL_CONFIG.get(cell.lower()) if config: - color = COLORS["dl_text"] if config[3] == "DL" else COLORS["st_text"] - return f"font-weight: bold; color: {color}" + color_key = MODEL_TYPE_COLORS.get(config[3], "text_default") + return f"font-weight: bold; color: {COLORS[color_key]}" return "font-weight: bold" diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv index d8258af96f141a41570aa8f1c84cdc5491c72052..525692a4c908b105a89995de318cd9c717408906 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-1.0,91.42857142857143,41.8883400084654,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,89.64285714285714,42.5157996441094,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,40.26605685743614,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.14285714285714,38.09940067233815,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,35.579899495667256,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,61.07142857142858,34.44493255866505,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.285714285714285,30.890375999745544,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.857142857142854,31.63477113942893,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,33.75,10.28649321258931,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoARIMA,32.32142857142858,11.154754181413495,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,27.500000000000004,6.832233342669413,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.107142857142858,9.00813293024486,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -Naive,23.214285714285715,-25.50199780067157,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.892857142857144,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.928571428571429,-32.85429096552939,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,92.00000000000001,41.88927928450025,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.0,42.51579967639686,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,84.50000000000001,40.26605676264323,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,79.5,38.09940061802194,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.25000000000001,35.5798994200739,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,63.5,30.68598311802213,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +TFT,61.87499999999999,34.39379489295074,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,61.0,34.444932595485724,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,60.24999999999999,34.304846616783294,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.25,30.890375949929528,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,55.49999999999999,31.182648441489537,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,52.49999999999999,28.99041616417205,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,47.0,25.641579380120593,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,39.49999999999999,21.217567102831968,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,31.375000000000004,12.457381191619765,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,28.125,13.156560456056853,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +AutoTheta,20.75,6.832233363582574,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,20.375,9.008132945543156,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +Naive,17.0,-25.50199781747715,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.25,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.500000000000002,-32.85429098273796,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 29e578e2e0323a149a309b46650bc43f82f58ee6..ae5548ffcce0f4e85bcbd6e072bc4000b3ef0bd7 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Toto-1.0,91.78571428571428,63.05871546601058,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,63.92789671191335,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,61.98663044796851,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714285,60.87156591539495,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.21428571428572,58.41610987284718,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,59.64285714285715,56.647735223836015,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,58.57142857142858,54.85929055283013,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.50000000000001,53.05789136035014,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,38.03571428571428,32.58752067086065,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -Stat. Ensemble,34.82142857142856,20.1052436267542,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoETS,28.035714285714285,-26.853793211441058,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,-2.1145171067117996,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.107142857142854,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.571428571428573,-102.14853969808834,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.214285714285715,-110.2431874466197,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,93.0,63.05875031595707,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.24999999999999,63.92789670076326,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,85.50000000000001,61.98663035039822,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.5,60.871565834690514,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,70.25,58.416109773202194,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,67.0,55.917373913965896,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,63.37499999999999,56.65838528437654,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,62.74999999999999,56.101100728840805,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.25,54.85929046462743,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.750000000000014,56.64773521043558,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,56.25,54.882167458139385,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,51.12500000000001,50.20430422932948,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,42.75000000000001,46.25315473529981,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,34.75,40.369919076130486,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,33.87500000000001,34.1099179045811,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,30.375000000000004,21.741616773476768,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,21.624999999999996,-26.853793282334813,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,16.0,-2.114517117703918,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.875,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.75,-102.14853947002402,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.0000000000000004,-110.24318719846286,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index eec1c903a209835f36ed7d35dcf4684fe5178555..f0372de3be44c59f93752c7ceb37d31d18294ee0 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,50.572763239812836,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,91.07142857142858,47.121114882947566,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.42857142857142,46.247719637805126,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.49999999999999,44.52063533547439,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.5,42.792548583451826,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.78571428571429,43.22422155533027,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.71428571428571,39.893668788246494,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.71428571428571,41.96635843416393,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,32.32142857142857,15.58065226385924,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoARIMA,28.392857142857142,14.643401272886948,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -AutoETS,23.75,5.6618608592632125,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,23.57142857142857,12.660865629460227,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -Naive,23.21428571428571,4.49837332329478,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.321428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.928571428571429,-1.7537851144645122,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,92.25000000000001,47.09252281338565,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.50000000000003,50.57276323971893,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,84.50000000000001,46.24771958720855,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,79.25,44.520635260445665,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.0,44.39308253523333,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.25,42.79254856807111,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.25000000000001,42.304181829008726,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,61.999999999999986,42.75818805959519,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.5,39.89366883509092,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,61.5,41.966358434053696,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +TFT,58.62499999999999,37.9920627846737,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,49.25000000000001,34.58752644878078,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,47.00000000000001,31.125782577257844,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,39.0,27.03716130150796,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,28.625,17.59542897915567,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,24.874999999999996,16.5309827995087,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,19.124999999999996,5.6618608202705705,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,17.25,12.660865320459136,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.25,4.49837321934039,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.0,-1.7537853153904326,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv index a6c14636f7927ce24469253ce4f1eae74c16b4f7..d67da057d1a025a461914e596bedbf11d04d63de 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.5,66.94397676110452,0.0,1.18621670825,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,90.35714285714286,64.45690397421868,0.0,45.868307151375,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285712,63.753748722726,0.0,6.4447616408988475,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.71428571428571,62.74382048051918,0.0,0.20031914146825397,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.92857142857143,61.08750955081813,0.0,0.36445902017857146,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.00000000000001,59.171399643395425,0.0,187.1612375475248,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.357142857142854,58.158162956775406,0.0,0.21195593629285714,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.928571428571445,59.213728716592804,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.25,33.35224855510223,0.0,17.96621433673913,0.0,15.0 -Stat. Ensemble,32.67857142857142,20.842955409190168,0.0,117.23392411285715,0.0,15.0 -AutoETS,24.82142857142857,-39.99504769759261,0.0,2.879931537857143,0.0,15.0 -AutoTheta,22.142857142857146,7.361982670066736,0.0,3.978930596261481,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.43848143432692305,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.214285714285715,-64.97889014234586,0.0,0.40027213541999274,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.9285714285714293,-71.7471743876533,0.0,0.4187055400961539,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.75000000000003,66.94397676250325,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,91.5,64.46135334372015,0.0,45.854219394249995,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,84.50000000000001,63.7537487246866,0.0,6.434508300230608,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.99999999999999,62.74382048246822,0.0,0.20884203875396826,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,73.25000000000001,62.649468493586056,0.0,12.472611368300264,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,72.0,61.08750954950368,0.0,0.35171731723214283,0.1,0.0 +PatchTST,65.12499999999999,59.71037333425973,1068.4652680383783,0.7892402496428571,0.0,0.0 +TFT,61.74999999999999,55.556509382143545,1003.5120332510221,1.1076982505700976,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.25,58.15816295699815,0.0,0.21284866287857143,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.999999999999986,58.432181218600874,0.0,285.2805137923404,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,57.50000000000001,59.21372871831863,0.0,7.874095355196429,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,50.62500000000002,50.79429174981283,1590.4637105111146,1.558186748969388,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,42.5,46.843426009989976,123.37088255733154,0.43462186795918367,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,35.75000000000001,40.70772252024998,7.053590123430682,0.3469036807346939,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,31.375000000000004,34.821696297938075,0.0,18.324502920714288,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,27.125,22.34504540092107,0.0,140.07917045413043,0.0,5.0 +AutoETS,18.125,-39.995047645386684,0.0,2.9907604154761906,0.0,15.0 +AutoTheta,15.499999999999996,7.361982676335321,0.0,4.0546638315458425,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.375000000000002,0.0,0.0,0.5176203110585994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.75,-64.9788901369484,0.0,0.43933051720441596,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.2499999999999996,-71.7471743825873,0.0,0.4190869192562794,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv index 07c4b8fd72cf2537cbdfe12a1cbf3d43aec91c4b..d897bc8de4395c84c08b8b9bfef3b802626acfc2 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.063,0.027 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.027,-0.02,0.072 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.061,0.027,0.114 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.053,0.164 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.061,0.027,0.114 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.098,0.052,0.164 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.041,0.286 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.071,0.159 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.037,0.182 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.034,0.185 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.094,0.224 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.231 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.45 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.264,0.448 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.295,0.468 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.267,0.469 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.377,0.689 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.529 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.414,0.702 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.156,0.082,0.237 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.123,0.255 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.136,0.34 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.17,0.377 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.244,0.439 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.323,0.528 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.011,-0.028,0.059 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,0.009,0.071 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.022,0.128 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.168 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.171,0.067,0.29 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.124,0.065,0.193 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.123,0.07,0.182 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.065,0.189 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.101,0.231 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.092,0.234 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.272,0.454 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.266,0.453 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.296,0.47 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.281,0.468 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.386,0.689 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.241 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.13,0.258 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.227,0.129,0.346 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.186,0.379 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.247,0.444 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.425,0.331,0.534 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.567,0.421,0.704 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.028,-0.078,0.02 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.077,-0.009 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.035,-0.0,0.077 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.073,0.035,0.115 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.138,0.03,0.267 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.09,0.017,0.163 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.041,0.137 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.091,0.037,0.142 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.136,0.068,0.199 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.126,0.059,0.207 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.261,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.254,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.283,0.436 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.268,0.433 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.366,0.676 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.065,0.213 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.112,0.209 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.114,0.296 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.161,0.341 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.234,0.407 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.318,0.501 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.402,0.69 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.065,-0.129,-0.028 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.146,-0.022 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.083,0.0 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.039,0.014,0.065 +TiRex,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.107,-0.02,0.236 +TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,-0.02,0.121 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,-0.026,0.115 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.058,-0.029,0.118 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.038,0.166 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.018,0.172 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.233,0.392 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.231,0.382 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.412 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.235,0.41 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.507,0.342,0.658 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.101,0.027,0.176 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.082,0.178 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.1,0.259 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.214,0.136,0.316 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.211,0.384 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.295,0.476 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.385,0.676 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.056 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.109,-0.196,-0.055 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.121,-0.202,-0.056 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.078,-0.13,-0.036 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.041,-0.07,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.062,0.201 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.018,-0.08,0.104 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.017,-0.056,0.065 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.019,-0.064,0.081 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.425,0.825,0.068,-0.002,0.135 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.02,0.138 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.282,0.201,0.366 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.275,0.203,0.354 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.237,0.386 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.292,0.208,0.382 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.487,0.322,0.638 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.064,-0.007,0.143 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,0.044,0.145 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.134,0.067,0.219 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.182,0.102,0.29 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.264,0.181,0.354 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.356,0.268,0.451 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.369,0.657 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.193,-0.401,-0.043 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.206,-0.408,-0.072 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.16,-0.363,-0.031 +FlowState,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.12,-0.308,0.02 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.251,0.058 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.057,-0.249,0.076 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.057,-0.195,0.034 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.055,-0.227,0.056 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.003,-0.136,0.112 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.007,-0.123,0.099 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.165,0.147 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.068,-0.138,0.239 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,-0.029,0.25 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.208,0.067,0.328 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.307,0.147,0.442 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.129,-0.188,-0.076 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.141,-0.239,-0.069 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.098,-0.194,-0.017 +TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.06,-0.138,0.02 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.117,0.074 +TFT,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.053,-0.082,0.2 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.1,0.085 +TFT,PatchTST,0.575,0.375,0.8,0.001,-0.11,0.092 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.051,-0.051,0.135 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.059,0.154 +TFT,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,-0.018,0.182 +TFT,DeepAR,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.118,0.022,0.265 +TFT,LightGBM,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.167,0.04,0.319 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.251,0.14,0.37 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.824,1.0,0.344,0.234,0.473 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.223,-0.038 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.14,-0.222,-0.075 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.159,-0.043 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.059,-0.129,0.025 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.018,-0.069,0.053 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.054,-0.035,0.163 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.093,0.091 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.049,0.047 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.051,-0.023,0.126 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.041,-0.034,0.11 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.361 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.262,0.175,0.353 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.377 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.28,0.184,0.379 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.322,0.626 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.047,-0.03,0.119 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.077,0.0,0.151 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.118,0.023,0.231 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.168,0.074,0.284 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.251,0.159,0.35 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.344,0.246,0.453 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.358,0.646 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.131,-0.227,-0.035 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.234,-0.07 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.1,-0.166,-0.038 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.061,-0.134,0.028 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.02,-0.089,0.06 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.052,-0.059,0.185 +PatchTST,TFT,0.425,0.2,0.625,-0.001,-0.101,0.099 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.049,0.046 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.049,-0.039,0.137 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.045,-0.055,0.144 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,-0.003,0.155 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.117,0.017,0.235 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.166,0.07,0.287 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.725,1.0,0.25,0.165,0.344 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.343,0.237,0.456 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.288,-0.104 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.3,-0.112 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.157,-0.248,-0.073 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.116,-0.198,-0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.575,-0.073,-0.156,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.003,-0.127,0.12 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.053,-0.156,0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.054,-0.144,0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.052,-0.159,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.011,-0.128,0.086 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.23,0.124,0.336 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.222,0.121,0.337 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.171,0.353 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.24,0.131,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.297,0.601 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.119,0.091 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.027,-0.069,0.119 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.071,-0.053,0.212 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.123,0.02,0.247 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.211,0.106,0.324 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.185,0.434 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.341,0.624 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.176,-0.301,-0.081 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.102 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.144,-0.261,-0.063 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.104,-0.208,-0.019 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.161,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.043,-0.123,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.011,-0.095,0.114 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.184,-0.311,-0.09 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.197,-0.318,-0.11 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.152,-0.27,-0.07 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.112,-0.214,-0.028 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.068,-0.167,0.007 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.007,-0.11,0.109 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.049,-0.182,0.056 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.05,-0.135,0.029 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.048,-0.168,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.1,0.106 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.095,0.36 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.231,0.096,0.351 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.266,0.154,0.375 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.249,0.114,0.367 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.455,0.285,0.6 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.316,0.178,0.443 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.485,0.326,0.621 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.817,-0.362 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.833,-0.374 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.502,-0.711,-0.353 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.449,-0.646,-0.304 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.393,-0.578,-0.251 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.369,-0.564,-0.223 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.298,-0.505,-0.141 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.562,-0.106 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,-0.093,0.135 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.075,-0.055,0.195 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.126,-0.001,0.259 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.214,0.071,0.347 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.312,0.171,0.441 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.222,-0.342,-0.14 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.347,-0.15 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.264,-0.127 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.147,-0.217,-0.09 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.102,-0.17,-0.046 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.172,0.142 +CatBoost,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.082,-0.223,0.018 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.083,-0.177,-0.0 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.081,-0.183,0.003 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.027,-0.135,0.064 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.157,0.085 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.045,-0.055,0.142 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,0.036,0.185 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.189,0.115,0.265 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.29,0.213,0.377 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.28,-0.514,-0.157 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.294,-0.529,-0.148 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.421,-0.129 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.201,-0.35,-0.111 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.154,-0.28,-0.072 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.073,-0.315,0.122 +DeepAR,TFT,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.133,-0.361,-0.022 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.134,-0.301,-0.024 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.132,-0.307,-0.018 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.27,0.05 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.081,-0.242,0.053 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.047,-0.165,0.053 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.056,-0.065,0.198 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.151,0.055,0.254 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.256,0.171,0.346 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.604,-0.205 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.61,-0.228 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.518,-0.192 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.273,-0.462,-0.158 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.223,-0.409,-0.113 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.137,-0.333,0.029 +LightGBM,TFT,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.201,-0.469,-0.041 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.202,-0.397,-0.08 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.199,-0.402,-0.075 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.14,-0.329,-0.02 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.145,-0.349,0.001 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.227,-0.037 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.059,-0.247,0.061 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.1,0.011,0.184 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.212,0.108,0.31 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.784,-0.322 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.799,-0.328 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.687,-0.306 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.625,-0.267 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.359,-0.549,-0.221 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.263,-0.487,-0.071 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.334,-0.588,-0.163 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.335,-0.537,-0.189 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.125,0.0,0.275,-0.333,-0.525,-0.197 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.267,-0.479,-0.119 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.272,-0.532,-0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.233,-0.361,-0.13 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.177,-0.34,-0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.111,-0.225,-0.011 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.01,-0.058,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,-0.013,0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.014,-0.091,0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.285,0.06,0.51 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.624,0.925,0.103,-0.009,0.19 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.325,0.11,0.536 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.811,-0.358 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.546,-0.83,-0.363 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.708,-0.341 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.619,-0.301 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.379,-0.548,-0.255 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.355,-0.545,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.286,-0.508,-0.137 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.3,-0.541,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.01,-0.026,0.055 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.046,-0.017,0.107 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.725,0.549,0.9,0.024,-0.086,0.103 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.292,0.063,0.513 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.112,0.008,0.197 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.331,0.115,0.536 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.603,-0.881,-0.419 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.887,-0.421 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.774,-0.394 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.701,-0.356 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.628,-0.31 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.606,-0.282 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.546,-0.206 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.363,-0.6,-0.182 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.096,0.013 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.049,-0.12,0.017 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.024,-0.139,0.055 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.258,0.05,0.468 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.068,-0.06,0.171 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.104,0.491 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.883,-0.364 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.881,-0.391 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.762,-0.366 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.695,-0.307 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.412,-0.619,-0.262 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.388,-0.611,-0.225 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.317,-0.559,-0.151 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.331,-0.581,-0.129 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.014,-0.096,0.083 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.1,0.451,-0.024,-0.115,0.079 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.058,0.122 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.275,0.032,0.5 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.09,0.026,0.154 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.315,0.081,0.528 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.16,-2.211,-0.604 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.183,-2.214,-0.628 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.101,-2.085,-0.578 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.027,-1.923,-0.52 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.948,-1.762,-0.475 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.673,-0.476 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.816,-1.505,-0.423 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.836,-1.501,-0.399 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.399,-1.041,-0.063 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.413,-1.052,-0.067 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.347,-0.881,-0.053 -Naive,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.379,-1.0,-0.033 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,-0.255,-0.874,0.087 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.031,0.085 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.122,-0.477 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.675,0.95,0.125,0.01,0.21 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.121,-0.477 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.74,-1.148,-0.496 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.674,-1.003,-0.466 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.909,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.552,-0.822,-0.365 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.443,-0.793,-0.172 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.075,0.0,0.176,-0.524,-0.897,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.525,-0.83,-0.326 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.522,-0.838,-0.31 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.447,-0.766,-0.228 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.463,-0.796,-0.216 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.225,0.075,0.376,-0.115,-0.235,0.009 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.126,-0.245,-0.008 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.073,-0.206,0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.099,-0.181,-0.027 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,0.203,-0.096,0.466 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.453,-0.788,-0.206 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.408,-0.606,-0.271 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.345,-0.53,-0.206 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.269,-0.45,-0.122 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.175,0.05,0.325,-0.142,-0.265,-0.01 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.247,-0.04,0.497 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.286,-2.359,-0.705 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.311,-2.381,-0.728 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.224,-2.223,-0.673 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.146,-2.086,-0.627 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.913,-0.584 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.828,-0.559 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.922,-1.659,-0.517 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.943,-1.639,-0.484 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.481,-1.157,-0.124 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.495,-1.156,-0.13 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.966,-0.116 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.46,-1.12,-0.088 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.059,-0.093,-0.032 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.329,-0.989,0.038 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv index 7b9b57f258953de62b81deef979e11ae38ad66da..96c3c48b40d732e36a33e64696c3e51a836cc3c4 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.08,0.018 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.024,0.076 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.028,-0.025,0.076 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.056,0.022,0.104 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.064,0.169 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.071,0.211 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.162,0.04,0.284 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.158,0.096,0.217 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.055,0.221 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.124,0.236 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.291 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.369,0.537 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.448,0.619 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.666,0.482,0.815 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.54,0.72 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.521,0.73 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.817,0.735,0.877 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.824,0.744,0.882 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.072,0.211 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.112,0.249 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.17,0.364 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.264,0.377 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.3,0.483 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.352,0.531 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.52,0.73 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.018,0.074 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,0.017,0.09 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.078,0.024,0.139 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.069,0.2 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.182,0.078,0.296 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.097,0.258 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.103,0.231 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.134,0.261 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.162,0.3 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.381,0.55 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.47,0.623 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.674,0.501,0.819 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.555,0.727 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.2,0.145,0.253 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.276,0.172,0.38 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.271,0.39 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.318,0.493 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.362,0.541 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.533,0.735 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.822,0.746,0.879 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.828,0.756,0.883 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.029,-0.082,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.054,-0.099,-0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.014,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.038,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.138,0.034,0.263 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.134,0.04,0.217 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.123,0.058,0.187 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.095,0.217 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.19,0.124,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.367,0.511 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.451,0.594 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.476,0.811 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.534,0.71 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.123,0.079,0.165 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.157,0.094,0.222 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.237,0.142,0.329 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.245,0.344 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.285,0.455 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.346,0.5 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.519,0.713 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.812,0.731,0.872 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.819,0.742,0.877 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.059,-0.116,-0.023 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.162,-0.025 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.086,0.013 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.059,0.03,0.09 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151 +TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,-0.021,0.241 +TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.017,0.181 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,-0.003,0.171 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.073,0.186 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.166,0.079,0.247 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.343,0.497 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.425,0.585 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.647,0.453,0.808 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.513,0.698 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.097,0.013,0.151 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.133,0.061,0.202 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.214,0.14,0.296 +TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.23,0.322 +TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.273,0.435 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.323,0.488 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.499,0.709 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.806,0.72,0.869 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.814,0.729,0.874 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.203,-0.068 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.249,-0.074 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.167,-0.039 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.063,-0.099,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.057,-0.083,0.184 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.053,-0.052,0.142 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.041,-0.065,0.115 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.079,0.017,0.14 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.114,0.03,0.194 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.305,0.459 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.48,0.391,0.559 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.628,0.423,0.798 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.593,0.49,0.673 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.041,-0.045,0.091 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.003,0.155 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.165,0.091,0.246 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.226,0.167,0.288 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.303,0.222,0.406 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.286,0.449 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.469,0.689 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.794,0.704,0.859 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.802,0.716,0.864 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.268,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,0.006,0.138 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.281,0.436 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.378,0.534 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.404,0.793 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.487,0.657 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.704,0.848 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.794,0.716,0.854 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.142 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.193,-0.397,-0.041 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.222,-0.421,-0.084 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.16,-0.356,-0.035 +FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.127,-0.318,0.02 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.225,0.076 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.004,-0.165,0.115 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.152,0.083 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.023,-0.108,0.139 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.017,-0.149,0.071 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.136,0.146 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.115,-0.045,0.263 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.026,0.285 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.261,0.132,0.377 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.331,0.195,0.442 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.424,0.672 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.188,-0.277,-0.106 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.217,-0.348,-0.107 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.155,-0.277,-0.042 +TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.221,-0.018 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.056,-0.166,0.049 +TFT,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.004,-0.13,0.142 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.575,0.375,0.8,-0.013,-0.135,0.076 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.028,-0.073,0.104 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.013,-0.115,0.08 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.103,0.135 +TFT,DeepAR,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.118,0.024,0.252 +TFT,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.183,0.08,0.296 +TFT,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.264,0.142,0.413 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.334,0.218,0.454 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.561,0.416,0.683 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.173,-0.284,-0.058 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.3,-0.115 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.14,-0.23,-0.061 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.108,-0.207,0.003 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.042,-0.129,0.061 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.09,0.132 +PatchTST,TFT,0.425,0.2,0.625,0.013,-0.082,0.119 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.034,0.126 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.0,-0.051,0.051 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,-0.055,0.124 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.13,0.036,0.239 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.194,0.092,0.285 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.159,0.397 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.342,0.248,0.437 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.567,0.435,0.68 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.31,-0.141 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.352,-0.155 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.187,-0.277,-0.105 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.229,-0.079 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.086,-0.162,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.161,0.097 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.116,0.068 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.042,-0.144,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.038,-0.082,0.139 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.236,0.434 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.435,0.328,0.531 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.372,0.786 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.558,0.453,0.645 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.041,-0.133,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.117,0.105 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.093,-0.005,0.208 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.077,0.242 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.243,0.147,0.355 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.315,0.215,0.421 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.67 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.777,0.686,0.844 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.7,0.851 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.271,-0.41,-0.151 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.429,-0.193 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.235,-0.346,-0.141 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.2,-0.328,-0.086 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.129,-0.24,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.083,-0.161,-0.006 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.04,-0.162,0.076 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.267,-0.077 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.14,-0.198,-0.085 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.108,-0.178,-0.013 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.043,-0.1,0.043 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.017,-0.076,0.129 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.086,0.103 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.0,-0.053,0.049 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.04,-0.037,0.117 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.039,-0.041,0.115 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,0.026,0.238 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.193,0.125,0.262 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.273,0.187,0.379 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.259,0.424 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.454,0.668 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.332,-0.126 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.251,-0.339,-0.17 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.187,-0.285,-0.104 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.153,-0.253,-0.065 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.183,0.003 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.023,-0.171,0.12 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.156,0.093 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.141,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.117,0.105 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.13,0.04 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.205,0.404 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.412,0.312,0.505 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.586,0.354,0.779 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.54,0.433,0.639 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.531,0.407,0.643 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.681,0.835 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.696,0.841 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.825,-1.161,-0.584 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.222,-0.615 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.773,-1.043,-0.58 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-0.989,-0.521 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.848,-0.438 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.773,-0.392 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.493,-0.768,-0.309 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.677,-0.258 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.094,-0.029,0.217 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.161,0.06,0.257 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.243,0.125,0.369 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.315,0.196,0.422 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.549,0.413,0.669 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.571,-0.205 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.38,-0.614,-0.207 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.31,-0.491,-0.165 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.273,-0.42,-0.162 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.197,-0.326,-0.1 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.13,-0.357,0.043 +DeepAR,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.134,-0.336,-0.024 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.149,-0.315,-0.038 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.103,-0.263,0.005 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.149,-0.312,-0.027 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.104,-0.277,0.028 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.074,-0.05,0.187 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.165,0.046,0.308 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.15,0.332 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.502,0.353,0.633 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.606,-0.359 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.638,-0.372 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.524,-0.325 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.474,-0.299 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.292,-0.404,-0.201 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.399,-0.026 +CatBoost,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.224,-0.42,-0.087 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.24,-0.398,-0.102 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.32,-0.084 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.24,-0.356,-0.143 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.191,-0.346,-0.064 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.079,-0.23,0.047 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,0.036,0.185 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.184,0.072,0.291 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.329,0.589 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.934,-0.429 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.653,-0.973,-0.466 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.569,-0.835,-0.398 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.524,-0.771,-0.376 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.434,-0.685,-0.285 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.353,-0.604,-0.152 +LightGBM,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.358,-0.703,-0.165 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.376,-0.659,-0.19 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.321,-0.55,-0.173 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.375,-0.609,-0.231 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.322,-0.586,-0.143 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.197,-0.445,-0.048 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.227,-0.037 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.095,-0.08,0.229 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.404,0.231,0.555 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.131,-0.544 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.177,-0.569 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.002,-0.528 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.952,-0.476 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.816,-0.401 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.495,-0.794,-0.243 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.501,-0.831,-0.279 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.52,-0.778,-0.329 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.46,-0.729,-0.274 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.737,-0.349 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.46,-0.731,-0.244 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.497,-0.176 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.226,-0.41,-0.077 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.105,-0.297,0.074 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.875,0.156,0.073,0.244 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.434,0.08,0.713 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.476 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.326,0.18,0.457 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.667,0.521,0.764 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.679,0.545,0.773 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.625,-0.811 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.654,-0.887 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.466,-0.82 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.042,-1.411,-0.739 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.921,-1.267,-0.642 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.843,-1.145,-0.609 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.77,-1.134,-0.488 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.702,-1.019,-0.454 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.275,0.125,0.475,-0.185,-0.323,-0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.363,-0.063,0.684 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.089,0.375 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.201,-0.013,0.369 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.605,0.443,0.725 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.465,0.735 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.991,-4.394,-0.932 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.072,-4.534,-1.004 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.92,-4.291,-0.907 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.837,-4.196,-0.83 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.688,-3.95,-0.734 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-3.825,-0.677 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.484,-3.678,-0.591 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.414,-3.528,-0.549 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.767,-2.48,-0.087 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.569,-2.162,0.059 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.25,-1.708,0.289 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.269,-1.702,0.285 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.34,-0.612,0.679 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.363,-0.555,0.692 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.764,-2.575,-1.173 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.831,-2.661,-1.245 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.686,-2.451,-1.145 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.316,-1.054 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.456,-2.054,-0.962 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.355,-1.914,-0.951 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.262,-1.821,-0.828 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.175,-1.772,-0.765 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.515,-0.908,-0.255 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.278,-0.6,-0.097 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.2,-0.407,0.631 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.021,-0.413,0.245 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.495,0.359,0.605 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.514,0.382,0.62 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.086 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.341,0.205,0.472 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.709,-1.085 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.772,-2.77,-1.139 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.631,-2.486,-1.077 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.437,-0.997 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-2.214,-0.883 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.268,-2.052,-0.736 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.278,-2.153,-0.713 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.307,-2.121,-0.769 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.215,-2.027,-0.704 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.13,-1.801,-0.687 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.483,-0.841,-0.219 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.252,-0.585,0.013 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.212,-0.398,0.63 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.021,-0.325,0.292 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.307,-2.016,-0.832 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.216,-2.025,-0.703 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.008,-1.722,-0.547 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.861,-1.432,-0.49 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.677,-1.249,-0.301 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.518,-0.895,-0.258 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.505,0.274,0.671 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.524,0.302,0.688 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.472,-7.119,-2.772 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.604,-7.24,-2.94 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.318,-6.839,-2.721 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-4.166,-6.661,-2.569 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.861,-6.072,-2.376 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-5.597,-2.374 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-3.478,-5.427,-2.188 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.306,-5.057,-2.139 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.999,-3.24,-1.086 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.53,-2.642,-0.795 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.516,-2.117,0.38 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.98,-1.531,-0.56 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-1.021,-2.041,-0.378 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.057 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.691,-7.48,-2.9 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.828,-7.54,-3.102 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.531,-7.137,-2.871 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.373,-6.957,-2.696 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.056,-6.361,-2.518 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.85,-5.831,-2.522 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.689,-2.332 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.479,-5.272,-2.287 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.119,-3.399,-1.198 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.632,-2.779,-0.87 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.569,-2.25,0.357 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.059,-1.634,-0.617 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-1.102,-2.206,-0.433 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.061,-0.024 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 23a326d9739a05f6b7af9995b6ff438fc5e46b0f..0916f1df193ff4a26243467324a65a86d6ac5dc1 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.211,0.014 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.049,0.069 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,-0.002,0.1 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.12,0.172 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.014,0.139 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.083,0.012,0.143 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,-0.112,0.188 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.051,0.182 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.088,-0.012,0.164 +Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.082,0.222 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.124,0.268 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.144,0.35 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.275,0.174,0.398 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.266,0.464 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.58 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.066,-0.014,0.174 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.065,-0.014,0.173 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,0.03,0.14 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.109,0.032,0.209 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.111,0.049,0.183 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.059,0.226 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.186 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.143,0.087,0.216 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.137,0.061,0.205 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.259 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.148,0.099,0.198 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.319,0.51 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.312,0.531 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.341,0.599 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.333,0.532 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.382,0.572 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.203,0.088,0.331 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.169,0.326 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.282,0.158,0.409 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.222,0.429 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.295,0.505 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.388,0.617 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.42,0.599 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.07,-0.21,0.014 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.048,0.069 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.047,-0.0,0.1 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.076,0.017,0.14 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,-0.015,0.137 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.053,0.182 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.089,-0.011,0.164 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.473 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.29,0.482 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.315,0.574 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.314,0.488 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.446,0.353,0.545 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.37,0.581 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.48,0.397,0.565 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.074,0.047 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.162,-0.031 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.017,-0.074,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.031,-0.009,0.083 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,-0.09,0.123 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.053,0.014,0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.068,0.034,0.105 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.061,-0.066,0.141 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.065,0.148 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.024,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.285,0.453 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.28,0.472 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.307,0.558 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.303,0.473 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.35,0.527 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.039,0.248 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.129,0.23 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.126,0.316 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.172,0.371 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.261,0.445 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.364,0.568 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.472,0.391,0.548 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.002 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.122,-0.264,-0.033 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.049,-0.111,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.032,-0.091,0.009 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.176,0.116 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,0.004,0.056 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.05,0.081 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.038,-0.012,0.083 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.031,-0.152,0.138 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.124 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,0.95,0.044,-0.063,0.112 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.258,0.427 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.265,0.443 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.412,0.283,0.547 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.286,0.45 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.419,0.321,0.511 +TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.0,0.22 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.152,0.107,0.198 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.194,0.118,0.28 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.24,0.158,0.347 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.239,0.42 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.35,0.545 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.377,0.533 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.051,-0.208,0.107 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.125,-0.224,-0.051 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.035,-0.141,0.083 +FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.131,0.149 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.093,0.164 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.036,-0.086,0.162 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.068,0.106 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.075,-0.004,0.187 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.042,-0.051,0.116 +FlowState,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.103,-0.059,0.259 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.15,0.054,0.264 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.193,0.023,0.35 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.238,0.134,0.354 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.226,0.433 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.326,0.558 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.162,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.157,-0.292,-0.062 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.162,-0.017 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.064,-0.112,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.06,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.197,0.085 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.008,-0.075,0.05 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.008,-0.035,0.053 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.001,-0.174,0.1 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.048,0.003,0.096 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.014,-0.074,0.068 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.239,0.411 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.244,0.426 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.265,0.533 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.268,0.435 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.401,0.311,0.491 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.077,-0.033,0.206 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.08,0.173 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.169,0.095,0.251 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.129,0.33 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.219,0.401 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.333,0.532 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.36,0.513 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.229,-0.091 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.159,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.056,-0.103,-0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.023,-0.089,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.008,-0.053,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.091,-0.166,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.167,-0.275,-0.095 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.073,-0.118,-0.035 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.04,-0.091,0.012 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.193,0.079 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.009,-0.056,0.034 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.022,0.125 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.022,-0.044,0.083 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.226,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.224,0.447 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.398,0.258,0.535 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.35,0.246,0.448 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.295,0.51 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.311,0.55 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.337,0.534 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.008,-0.175,0.096 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.028,0.105 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.006,-0.077,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.07,-0.052,0.204 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.118,0.054,0.183 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.162,0.066,0.264 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.209,0.108,0.334 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.3,0.193,0.406 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.304,0.541 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.082,-0.232,0.1 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.158,-0.258,-0.065 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.065,-0.165,0.062 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.032,-0.16,0.132 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.029,-0.118,0.064 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.001,-0.111,0.148 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.008,-0.107,0.149 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.048,-0.064,0.191 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.014,-0.05,0.089 +PatchTST,TFT,0.525,0.3,0.75,0.077,-0.073,0.248 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.125,0.018,0.25 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.925,0.169,0.039,0.321 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.215,0.088,0.359 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.725,1.0,0.305,0.183,0.428 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.428,0.289,0.553 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.136,-0.223,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.349,-0.115 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.137,-0.223,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.174,-0.069 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.083,-0.141,-0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.081,-0.231,0.004 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.106,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.143,0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.042,-0.117,0.028 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.05,-0.235,0.06 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.036,-0.131,0.028 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.207,0.384 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.204,0.41 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.23,0.509 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.234,0.407 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.464 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,-0.093,0.17 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.081,0.034,0.139 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.127,0.014,0.24 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.176,0.09,0.281 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.182,0.376 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.512 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.333,0.49 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.196,0.012 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.174,-0.247,-0.11 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.196,0.011 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.126,-0.024 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.15,0.05,0.3,-0.046,-0.126,0.059 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.044,-0.131,0.048 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.014,-0.073,0.069 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.022,-0.09,0.042 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.006,-0.078,0.071 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.098,0.047 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.034,-0.029,0.116 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.227,0.408 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.224,0.423 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.251,0.518 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.245,0.426 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.306,0.478 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.064,-0.048,0.195 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.113,0.042,0.19 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.056,0.275 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.205,0.1,0.327 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.201,0.399 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.312,0.53 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.347,0.507 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.708,-1.042,-0.469 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.898,-0.404 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.828,-0.398 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.746,-0.348 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.699,-0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.746,-0.292 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.624,-0.261 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.688,-0.293 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.172,-0.286,-0.089 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.255,-0.494,-0.096 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.33,-0.041 +TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.118,-0.281,-0.0 +TFT,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.115,-0.35,0.056 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.259,0.032 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.075,-0.256,0.049 +TFT,PatchTST,0.475,0.25,0.7,-0.083,-0.33,0.068 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.205,0.085 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.068,-0.242,0.046 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.052,-0.106,0.182 +TFT,DeepAR,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.1,-0.04,0.245 +TFT,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.15,-0.01,0.32 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.14,0.372 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.38,0.273,0.502 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.366,-0.141 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.485,-0.203 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.298,-0.148 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.179,-0.247,-0.12 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.176,-0.359,-0.057 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.209,-0.087 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.134,-0.223,-0.057 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.143,-0.333,-0.019 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.088,-0.161,-0.035 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.127,-0.235,-0.044 +CatBoost,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.055,-0.223,0.096 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.05,-0.062,0.143 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.034,0.2 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.119,0.301 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.346,0.235,0.461 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.538,-0.169 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.393,-0.693,-0.187 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.281,-0.461,-0.144 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.241,-0.389,-0.134 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.239,-0.538,-0.023 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.204,-0.334,-0.104 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.194,-0.358,-0.07 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.25,0.075,0.45,-0.203,-0.474,-0.04 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.146,-0.316,-0.014 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.187,-0.379,-0.059 +DeepAR,TFT,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.111,-0.324,0.039 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.053,-0.167,0.058 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.056,-0.071,0.22 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.164,0.057,0.278 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.311,0.207,0.415 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.379,-0.662,-0.211 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.751,-0.286 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.59,-0.208 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.315,-0.531,-0.187 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.312,-0.548,-0.155 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.275,-0.493,-0.149 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.265,-0.502,-0.121 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.275,-0.56,-0.096 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.214,-0.39,-0.099 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.257,-0.486,-0.111 +LightGBM,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.177,-0.471,0.009 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.251,-0.035 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.059,-0.283,0.066 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.115,0.028,0.196 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.27,0.154,0.38 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.864,-0.362 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-1.019,-0.418 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.803,-0.353 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.485,-0.724,-0.314 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.763,-0.292 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.671,-0.281 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.428,-0.684,-0.24 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.125,0.0,0.275,-0.44,-0.749,-0.225 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.371,-0.603,-0.222 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.665,-0.251 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.329,-0.592,-0.163 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.26,-0.43,-0.135 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.196,-0.386,-0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.129,-0.243,-0.029 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.011,-0.045,0.063 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.105,-0.033,0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.033,-0.007,0.072 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.116,0.037,0.193 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.156,0.072,0.236 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,0.096,0.237 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.133,-0.453 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.93,-0.408 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.895,-0.389 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.797,-0.361 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.744,-0.323 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.808,-0.289 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.694,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.734,-0.288 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.011,-0.067,0.043 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.095,-0.068,0.276 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.023,-0.039,0.083 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.106,-0.005,0.204 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.146,0.061,0.226 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.161,0.062,0.25 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.909,-1.495,-0.517 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.345,-0.461 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.755,-1.264,-0.444 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.7,-1.21,-0.394 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-1.141,-0.36 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.662,-1.151,-0.347 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-1.035,-0.299 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-1.074,-0.334 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.117,-0.399,0.032 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.105,-0.381,0.063 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.32,0.051 -AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.012,-0.2,0.142 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.196,0.202 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,-0.137,0.197 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.135,-0.5 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.955,-0.458 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.898,-0.434 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.574,-0.817,-0.401 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.527,-0.77,-0.366 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.538,-0.812,-0.326 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.453,-0.687,-0.305 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.741,-0.324 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.035,-0.077,0.007 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.023,-0.09,0.037 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.054,0.242 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.085,0.008,0.16 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.127,0.043,0.209 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.077,0.202 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.338,-0.617 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.806,-1.198,-0.545 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.777,-1.112,-0.538 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.721,-1.045,-0.472 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.669,-0.964,-0.452 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.039,-0.417 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.589,-0.866,-0.392 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.646,-0.915,-0.441 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.239,-0.038 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.119,-0.256,0.005 -Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.012,-0.166,0.167 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.093,-0.19,-0.008 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.425,0.775,0.045,-0.064,0.152 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.032,0.1 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.176,0.098,0.253 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.38,-0.588 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.023,-1.609,-0.634 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.385,-0.588 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.313,-0.572 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.802,-1.198,-0.539 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.26,-0.483 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.748,-1.138,-0.499 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.761,-1.22,-0.452 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.18,-0.436 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.747,-1.237,-0.406 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-1.049,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.13,-0.453 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.185,-0.309,-0.078 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.172,-0.293,-0.065 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.252,0.164 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.145,-0.264,-0.045 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.225,0.575,-0.047,-0.179,0.06 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.613,-1.008,-0.376 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.529,-0.855,-0.308 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.452,-0.709,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.371,-0.612,-0.183 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.214,-0.339,-0.109 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.017,-0.096,0.115 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.492,-0.723 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.924,-1.3,-0.659 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.893,-1.214,-0.641 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.143,-0.606 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.054,-0.562 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.147,-0.508 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.96,-0.5 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.753,-1.028,-0.532 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.311,-0.106 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.192,-0.333,-0.066 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.245,0.12 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.253,-0.083 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.111,-0.033 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.018,-0.129,0.088 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv index faf977f75a96a53de0af8f206f61f2bc55c4d5d7..9b5c843407f908fefd754bf1ea49ea4d3e24abcc 100644 --- a/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_cloud/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -3,224 +3,255 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.07,-0.014,0.185 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.033,0.155 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.222 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.05,0.188 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.151,0.066,0.248 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.134,0.247 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.18,0.08,0.27 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.256,0.118,0.395 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.134,0.3 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.141,0.274 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.145,0.236 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.412,0.597 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.505,0.655 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.573,0.855 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.566,0.707 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.328,0.194,0.454 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.313,0.448 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.357,0.536 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.393,0.591 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.669,0.582,0.746 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.8,0.757,0.837 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.808,0.765,0.845 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.013 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.075,-0.227,0.014 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.019,-0.047,0.073 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.02,-0.047,0.073 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.046,0.0,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.03,0.145 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.024,0.218 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.049,-0.131,0.178 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.029,0.145 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,-0.078,0.246 +Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.108,0.294 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.21 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.024,0.201 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.398,0.544 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.473,0.628 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.535,0.843 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.541,0.683 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.562,0.725 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.726,0.829 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.736,0.838 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.145,0.066,0.217 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.024,0.2 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.182,0.386 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.275,0.395 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.317,0.505 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.379,0.537 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.563,0.725 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.097,-0.183,-0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.02,-0.079,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.018,0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.03,-0.104,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.116 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.112,0.044,0.188 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.1,-0.044,0.208 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.184,0.06,0.307 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.092,0.179 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.128,0.067,0.195 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.111,0.06,0.148 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.384,0.539 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.468,0.619 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.704,0.532,0.841 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.609,0.535,0.678 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.263,0.157,0.368 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.274,0.365 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.312,0.484 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.365,0.532 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.638,0.557,0.714 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.727,0.825 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.739,0.832 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.127,-0.285,-0.033 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.048,-0.105,-0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.095,0.018 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.19,0.122 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.043,0.019,0.07 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.087,-0.014,0.174 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.075,-0.133,0.211 +TiRex,TFT,0.85,0.7,0.95,0.162,0.034,0.285 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.064,0.155 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.104,0.027,0.178 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,-0.025,0.153 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.376,0.512 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.452,0.602 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.514,0.839 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.598,0.521,0.663 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.243,0.15,0.337 +TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.255,0.343 +TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.297,0.467 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.428,0.358,0.508 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.627,0.54,0.71 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.712,0.821 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.783,0.724,0.829 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.13,-0.232,-0.053 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.051,-0.217,0.116 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.03,-0.137,0.094 +FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.139,0.159 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.04,-0.089,0.189 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.056,0.185 +FlowState,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.16,-0.028,0.323 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.107,0.023,0.228 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,-0.03,0.222 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.084,0.002,0.154 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.241,0.063,0.401 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.297,0.215,0.392 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.37,0.279,0.47 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.309,0.537 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.538,0.704 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.177,-0.33,-0.071 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.169,-0.031 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.17,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.074,-0.131,-0.029 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.044,-0.075,-0.02 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.042,-0.233,0.082 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.047,-0.055,0.137 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.034,-0.175,0.172 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.124,-0.012,0.26 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.699,0.975,0.07,0.023,0.118 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.064,-0.017,0.142 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.046,-0.056,0.104 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.347,0.496 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.423,0.589 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.494,0.835 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.498,0.651 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.209,0.118,0.304 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.268,0.22,0.319 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.261,0.45 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.403,0.327,0.491 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.523,0.693 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.764,0.7,0.813 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.715,0.821 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.329,-0.154 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.279,-0.025 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.126,-0.232,-0.046 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.096,-0.211,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.049,-0.159,0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.094,0.121 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.093,0.08 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.387,0.274,0.491 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.39,0.568 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.676,0.465,0.829 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.468,0.641 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.483,0.685 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.698,0.798 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.711,0.806 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.219,-0.369,-0.087 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.327,0.072 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.262,0.042 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.081,-0.267,0.118 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.227,0.053 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.035,-0.208,0.149 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.625,0.093,-0.057,0.271 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.037,-0.124,0.209 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.6,0.95,0.031,-0.127,0.186 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.1,0.119 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.181,0.049,0.342 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.242,0.117,0.366 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.32,0.179,0.456 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.382,0.25,0.512 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.597,0.477,0.698 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.344,-0.652,-0.133 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.415,-0.121 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.226,-0.442,-0.064 +TFT,TiRex,0.15,0.05,0.3,-0.193,-0.399,-0.035 +TFT,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.19,-0.477,0.027 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.142,-0.351,0.012 +TFT,PatchTST,0.575,0.375,0.775,-0.103,-0.372,0.054 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.062,-0.262,0.087 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.069,-0.3,0.102 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.09,-0.29,0.057 +TFT,DeepAR,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.097,-0.054,0.233 +TFT,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.164,0.007,0.3 +TFT,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.25,0.086,0.416 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.222,0.425 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.556,0.443,0.658 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.429,-0.154 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.266,-0.097 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.267,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.218,-0.101 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.123,-0.183,-0.069 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.12,-0.295,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.025,0.301,-0.075,-0.134,-0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.025,-0.137,0.086 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.264,0.11 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.059,-0.096,0.207 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.007,-0.108,0.094 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.026,-0.135,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.287,0.466 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.385,0.561 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.664,0.456,0.823 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.464,0.625 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.15,0.021,0.271 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.213,0.167,0.267 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.294,0.213,0.39 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.268,0.458 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.486,0.675 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.756,0.698,0.805 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.377,-0.164 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.17,-0.277,-0.07 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.147,-0.242,-0.072 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.116,-0.216,-0.027 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.285,0.029 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.068,-0.165,0.016 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.4,-0.032,-0.229,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.065,-0.114,0.231 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.007,-0.104,0.097 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.019,-0.118,0.067 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.155,0.02,0.291 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.218,0.128,0.299 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.299,0.185,0.424 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.362,0.252,0.466 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.475,0.679 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.309,-0.169 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.251,-0.025 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.125,-0.173,-0.063 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.095,-0.18,0.025 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.092,-0.182,-0.002 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.048,-0.116,0.053 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.086,0.085 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.135,0.091 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.082,-0.06,0.225 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.048,0.119 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.019,-0.071,0.106 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.302,0.48 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.404,0.566 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.672,0.475,0.826 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.48,0.633 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.171,0.043,0.303 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.233,0.171,0.301 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.312,0.219,0.422 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.28,0.471 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.504,0.674 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.702,0.798 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.715,0.808 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.48,-0.701 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.195,-0.66 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.168,-0.623 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.05,-0.601 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.713,-0.984,-0.532 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.632,-0.965,-0.378 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.873,-0.403 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.922,-0.434 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.489,-0.831,-0.241 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.628,-0.222 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.358,-0.582,-0.186 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.321,-0.509,-0.177 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.317,-0.669,-0.067 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.265,-0.436,-0.133 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.221,-0.519,-0.052 +DeepAR,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.107,-0.304,0.051 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.176,-0.371,-0.021 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.184,-0.41,-0.02 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.206,-0.434,-0.045 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.074,-0.052,0.197 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.17,0.021,0.333 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.245,0.159,0.333 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.508,0.376,0.622 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.812,-0.455 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.653,-0.379 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.467,-0.575,-0.378 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.522,-0.342 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.423,-0.645,-0.274 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.366,-0.469,-0.281 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.319,-0.578,-0.133 +CatBoost,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.196,-0.428,-0.007 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.27,-0.365,-0.2 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.279,-0.426,-0.147 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.303,-0.43,-0.206 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.08,-0.245,0.049 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.034,0.2 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.184,0.073,0.298 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.468,0.349,0.58 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.155,-0.555 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.668,-1.02,-0.464 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.636,-0.937,-0.454 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.591,-0.875,-0.423 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.587,-0.887,-0.387 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.524,-0.817,-0.354 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.472,-0.84,-0.218 +LightGBM,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.334,-0.711,-0.095 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.417,-0.639,-0.271 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.426,-0.735,-0.227 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.454,-0.731,-0.281 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.205,-0.498,-0.021 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.251,-0.035 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.09,-0.077,0.213 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.407,0.265,0.526 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.972,-1.444,-0.647 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.834,-1.16,-0.609 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.798,-1.136,-0.575 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.749,-1.031,-0.557 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.16,-0.448 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.675,-0.965,-0.486 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.618,-1.048,-0.334 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.739,-0.286 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.558,-0.844,-0.366 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.568,-0.874,-0.337 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.891,-0.389 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.325,-0.5,-0.189 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.226,-0.424,-0.079 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.099,-0.27,0.071 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.158,0.066,0.258 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.775,0.6,0.95,0.493,0.136,0.747 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.281,0.178,0.381 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,0.975,0.334,0.206,0.456 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.596,0.479,0.687 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.612,0.496,0.7 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.395,-1.901,-1.02 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.689,-0.897 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.624,-0.88 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.125,-1.511,-0.826 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.432,-0.734 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.939,-1.317,-0.639 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.892,-1.278,-0.626 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.941,-1.304,-0.678 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.188,-0.348,-0.07 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.432,0.004,0.725 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.146,0.088,0.213 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.208,-0.0,0.366 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.52,0.395,0.624 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.421,0.64 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-5.874,-1.34 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.437,-5.367,-1.149 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.382,-5.287,-1.137 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.298,-5.196,-1.056 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.171,-5.048,-0.977 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-2.09,-4.847,-0.87 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.974,-4.644,-0.837 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.046,-4.752,-0.906 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.225,0.05,0.4,-0.971,-2.951,-0.157 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.759,-2.642,-0.004 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.532,-2.194,0.136 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.725,0.525,0.875,-0.4,-1.897,0.22 -AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.097,-1.154,0.533 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.128,-1.084,0.55 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.802,-2.419,-1.302 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.606,-2.154,-1.18 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.556,-2.107,-1.153 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.487,-1.971,-1.087 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.381,-1.863,-0.992 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.786,-0.878 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.668,-0.867 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.271,-1.728,-0.922 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.39,-0.615,-0.216 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.17,-0.271,-0.097 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.347,-0.157,0.687 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,-0.208,0.273 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.438,0.308,0.555 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.461,0.336,0.574 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.348,0.228,0.464 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.025,-2.936,-1.394 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.813,-2.641,-1.285 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.639,-1.287 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.759,-2.495,-1.259 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.684,-2.448,-1.175 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.677,-2.381,-1.163 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-2.259,-1.095 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-2.176,-0.936 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.482,-2.307,-0.914 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.25,-1.926,-0.795 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.073,-0.945 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.406,-2.118,-0.903 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.452,-2.065,-1.017 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.025,0.25,-0.5,-0.839,-0.259 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.263,-0.577,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.275,0.125,0.475,0.286,-0.282,0.655 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.079,-0.376,0.172 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.032,-1.647,-0.604 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.881,-1.379,-0.536 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.687,-1.108,-0.36 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.534,-0.865,-0.295 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.394,0.19,0.555 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.418,0.219,0.575 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.991,-5.118,-3.118 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.642,-4.863,-2.647 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.552,-4.721,-2.668 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.428,-4.591,-2.469 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.24,-4.339,-2.329 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.041,-3.961,-2.314 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.943,-3.911,-2.141 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.045,-3.943,-2.361 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.475,-2.196,-0.918 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.084,-1.66,-0.654 -Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.107,-1.141,0.536 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.781,-1.246,-0.445 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.65,-1.249,-0.234 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.023,0.06 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.196,-5.431,-3.251 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.832,-5.185,-2.788 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.738,-4.957,-2.832 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.61,-4.86,-2.621 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.414,-4.579,-2.506 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.207,-4.157,-2.457 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.105,-4.13,-2.31 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.211,-4.217,-2.506 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.577,-2.334,-0.985 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.17,-1.781,-0.726 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.147,-1.224,0.52 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.854,-1.347,-0.507 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.717,-1.355,-0.28 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.064,-0.024 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 515da64f17b35ad4ecad2c6b6e1609866e3f91e2..5fb26ce3432b23e0c059053240f771014206d83c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Stat. Ensemble,86.30952380952381,38.477174892111854,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.5952380952381,36.87592043229662,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,72.61904761904762,36.307128150625054,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,70.23809523809524,35.90887063284529,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.5,32.38399314015735,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,55.952380952380956,32.52926187728524,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,55.35714285714286,33.893658153503736,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -Drift,54.76190476190476,29.639454010750132,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,50.5952380952381,32.83344752168508,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,44.04761904761905,28.784283550853363,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,40.476190476190474,30.133730037212626,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,28.236498726371508,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -Sundial-Base,21.428571428571434,19.709514878708077,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.69047619047619,15.593612409564518,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,86.25,38.47702197421158,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,76.25,36.87592044073875,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,75.41666666666667,36.739370201928836,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,72.91666666666667,36.307128273958256,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,70.83333333333333,35.908870624227376,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,69.58333333333333,35.21482359572895,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +CatBoost,69.16666666666667,35.982559330359685,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.833333333333314,32.41516602344565,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,59.166666666666664,33.893658085803416,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,55.41666666666667,32.52926186802178,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,54.166666666666664,32.83344751489832,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Drift,53.33333333333334,29.639454067966152,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,52.91666666666666,34.19057001716027,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,42.08333333333333,30.133730029400986,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,40.416666666666664,28.236498726126015,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +DeepAR,31.25,24.302560020818376,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,22.916666666666664,19.70951503418047,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,17.916666666666668,15.279108700450617,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.666666666666668,15.593612422240255,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +TFT,14.166666666666666,9.838087249658834,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,8.333333333333332,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 26bac4fb6c7604998bff6213ed6a2c881da42f08..830f583ca86b812168326c65346c83883a808f5f 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,86.30952380952381,38.167872268859085,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,85.11904761904762,37.73601239308477,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,78.57142857142858,37.11985318962454,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.47619047619048,33.46942523050611,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoETS,62.5,29.185864234223647,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,54.761904761904766,32.77207032704751,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,31.721452512923896,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,50.000000000000014,31.399100116246935,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,50.0,31.818155351289157,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -Drift,43.45238095238095,25.58270358587049,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,43.45238095238095,29.079628772649933,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.26190476190476,29.618968091908858,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,16.666666666666668,14.51026077809361,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.69047619047619,11.510639986489046,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,7.142857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,87.5,38.16787226217255,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.83333333333334,37.73601252203713,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,81.66666666666667,37.119576639717835,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,75.0,35.273957411546085,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,68.33333333333333,35.173459448094114,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,67.91666666666667,33.496371356107844,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoETS,67.5,29.18586393990128,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,61.66666666666666,32.772070331944484,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,57.08333333333334,31.81815534740079,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,56.666666666666664,31.72145242450589,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,49.58333333333333,29.079628766325204,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoTheta,48.33333333333334,29.61896808086114,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,47.083333333333336,25.58270375016218,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,43.749999999999986,25.12762288287479,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,34.166666666666664,24.325044506495818,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,27.916666666666668,23.419716355230047,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.416666666666664,16.930294384775955,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,20.0,14.510260955147846,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +Naive,17.91666666666667,11.510640002523509,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +TFT,17.5,9.329379481293765,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,9.166666666666664,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 7a7abe93047aa3eccde63e89008ed80f0976daab..c7d620fb7a700f5bb4f0f52ef60528adbfb382e9 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,75.5952380952381,37.758720420324885,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,72.02380952380952,38.17771635240618,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,67.26190476190477,36.55873563764085,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.66666666666667,33.97027771884091,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,63.09523809523808,35.892561173334556,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoETS,58.92857142857143,34.84116701303258,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.333333333333336,34.28532719607597,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.5952380952381,35.73217052389407,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,49.404761904761905,30.47814442259772,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -Drift,48.214285714285715,28.435825322795704,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,47.023809523809526,28.27751413794253,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoTheta,45.83333333333333,31.81292365948549,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.833333333333332,15.872311480991785,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,17.261904761904763,17.737236553561875,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,8.928571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.91666666666667,37.758720587285445,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,74.16666666666666,38.177219528557146,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,71.25,36.558735189016225,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,67.08333333333336,33.97875884401389,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,66.66666666666666,35.89256072267927,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +FlowState,65.41666666666667,37.645403955852096,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,64.16666666666666,36.531743334435674,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,62.5,34.84116662551825,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,62.083333333333336,35.20082715344605,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,60.41666666666667,35.02206834104291,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,54.58333333333333,35.732170334358024,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,53.75,30.478143266802604,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,51.66666666666666,28.277512977220987,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoTheta,48.33333333333335,31.812923074763923,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,48.33333333333334,28.435824921980835,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +Naive,24.58333333333333,15.872310498117715,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,22.916666666666668,17.737235971841127,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,22.08333333333333,19.60425306556468,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,20.0,15.619782622761335,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +TFT,19.583333333333336,6.946074243338563,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,12.5,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv index a887713caa7d8583136f60bb22ec5ed1cb01c858..0204a733959fb7a68f18ed3e83f7adb0a92aa129 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,83.33333333333334,42.09146585989647,0.0,0.1577310358200435,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,76.78571428571426,40.960757226189024,0.0,0.14296296275774828,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.83333333333334,38.07263005492061,0.0,4.9976272313807435,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,66.07142857142857,39.26649292250398,0.0,0.3182864435592606,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.5,38.29459805551885,0.0,19.382406450060035,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,61.9047619047619,37.99224244127147,0.0,74.63583592838711,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,58.33333333333333,35.53495230927829,0.0,0.1589436945079739,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,55.35714285714286,36.76571975679717,0.0,1.6644653908191018,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.976190476190474,32.793225134905136,0.0,0.2231920597172889,0.16666666666666666,0.0 -AutoARIMA,46.42857142857143,34.4461529963365,0.0,6.514016621697861,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.90476190476191,29.146207716766202,0.0,0.9511661320240354,0.0,0.0 -Drift,33.92857142857143,23.82864899904751,0.0,0.41642842294117643,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,19.642857142857142,17.532849713917752,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 -Naive,15.47619047619048,11.37195841028552,0.0,0.43518170598039213,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,9.523809523809524,0.0,0.0,0.4101321087745098,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,85.0,42.09146596586096,0.0,0.16472977363175062,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,80.41666666666666,40.960757337476025,0.0,0.14791438772454144,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,75.41666666666667,40.9054936267241,0.0,0.8205954025996205,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.91666666666667,38.100769058535434,0.0,5.0937543479594325,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,71.25,39.266493040907115,0.0,0.3095206282094962,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.58333333333333,40.20371520247606,0.0,52.326198869129215,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,68.33333333333333,37.992090519620156,0.0,73.43481351955408,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,64.16666666666666,35.534952430792764,0.0,0.1587546411616528,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,62.916666666666664,36.76571988294681,0.0,1.5253584038361796,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.75,32.793225265991246,0.0,0.21986280235955058,0.16666666666666666,0.0 +AutoARIMA,53.333333333333336,34.44615311952015,0.0,6.5345976113161015,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,43.75,29.146207850323268,0.0,0.9578271612919038,0.0,0.0 +Drift,37.49999999999999,23.828649343246187,0.0,0.4198026182352941,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,34.166666666666664,21.869167576579297,546.7685936688092,0.18274403532732447,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,32.91666666666667,26.0945614678313,3.42108969184492,0.03905346701454776,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,32.49999999999999,25.89068156049532,0.20454036927361854,0.03409663050126502,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,27.499999999999996,19.911167839333967,310.3190003231231,0.1605401314516129,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,24.583333333333325,17.532849869365606,0.0,8.00438149490214,0.0,0.0 +TFT,20.833333333333336,9.939963215759995,445.02348117965687,0.18857640938013914,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.833333333333332,11.371958531244664,0.0,0.46331807906862743,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.333333333333334,0.0,0.0,0.41450250024509805,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv index 283475720c5aa1ca288473e6da03053c9c9b4363..9434cc3cccf18858a879bb9faf53c0ac8f00a814 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.025,-0.023,0.072 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.06 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.034,-0.014,0.087 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.001,0.104 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.016,0.067 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.417,1.0,0.09,0.025,0.15 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.053,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.039,0.005,0.073 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.417,1.0,0.09,0.024,0.151 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.069,0.021,0.135 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.088,0.053,0.126 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.051,0.221 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.03,0.143 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.054,0.213 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,0.019,0.104 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.068,0.168 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.143,0.081,0.197 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.302 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.195,0.346 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.289,0.476 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.026,-0.078,0.023 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.002,-0.051,0.049 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.009,-0.026,0.043 +TiRex,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.026,-0.05,0.091 TiRex,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.013,0.045 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.066,-0.018,0.15 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.009,0.126 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.014,-0.041,0.062 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.066,-0.019,0.149 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.033,0.133 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.064,-0.009,0.126 TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.103,-0.002,0.214 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.06,0.02,0.109 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.114,0.033,0.194 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.041,-0.006,0.085 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.12,0.05,0.194 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.214,0.149,0.271 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.163,0.335 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.261,0.466 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.064,0.0 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.002,-0.051,0.049 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.007,-0.059,0.064 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.024,-0.019,0.072 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.013,-0.03,0.049 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.012,-0.002,0.026 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.009,0.132 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.043,-0.012,0.11 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.062,0.019,0.108 +LightGBM,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.101,0.037,0.181 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.058,-0.011,0.121 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.039,-0.028,0.085 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.053,0.136 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.051,0.177 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.267,0.458 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.035,-0.095,0.014 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.009,-0.045,0.026 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.007,-0.068,0.055 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.017,-0.064,0.092 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.027,0.041 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.005,-0.055,0.067 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.037,0.145 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.023,0.124 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.037,-0.046,0.122 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.023,0.124 Chronos-2,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.095,-0.024,0.22 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.004,0.099 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,0.025,0.194 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.032,-0.011,0.071 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.044,0.143 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.186 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.156,0.255 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.159,0.328 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.264,0.451 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.117,0.001 +FlowState,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.026,-0.1,0.048 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.024,-0.077,0.019 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.017,-0.102,0.06 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.011,-0.083,0.049 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.012,-0.06,0.028 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.292,0.833,0.041,-0.047,0.127 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.02,-0.017,0.055 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.04,-0.015,0.097 +FlowState,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.079,-0.007,0.177 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.035,-0.024,0.103 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.016,-0.058,0.073 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.073,0.02,0.125 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.097,0.02,0.172 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.265,0.429 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.042,-0.072,-0.016 AutoETS,TiRex,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.015,-0.047,0.013 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.013,-0.052,0.029 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.043,0.026 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.011,-0.051,0.077 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.04,0.039 AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.025,0.122 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.003,0.1 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.036,0.112 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.05,-0.003,0.1 AutoETS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.089,-0.005,0.196 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.046,-0.003,0.098 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.1,0.02,0.183 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.015,0.065 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.041,0.127 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.107,0.05,0.164 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.132,0.262 -AutoETS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.316 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.256,0.456 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.583,-0.099,-0.177,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.071,-0.176,0.018 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.062,-0.17,0.035 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.139,0.024 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.078,-0.005 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.014,-0.066,0.039 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.012,-0.026,0.002 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.005,-0.071,0.052 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.012,-0.029,0.057 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.041,0.039 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.053,-0.022,0.121 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.032,-0.023,0.093 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.005,0.102 +CatBoost,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.09,0.019,0.173 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.047,-0.019,0.108 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.027,-0.036,0.075 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.084,0.046,0.12 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,0.045,0.165 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.26,0.448 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.583,-0.099,-0.177,-0.024 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.071,-0.175,0.019 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.068,-0.152,0.009 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.169,0.035 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.708,-0.043,-0.146,0.045 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.139,0.025 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.056,-0.138,0.021 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.002,-0.089,0.077 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.108,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.065,0.133 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,-0.007,-0.103,0.063 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.107,0.186 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.032,-0.034,0.096 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.058,0.018,0.106 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.158,0.042,0.265 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.116,0.285 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.324,0.199,0.433 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.022,-0.108,0.05 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.002,-0.089,0.078 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.065,0.134 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.006,-0.103,0.064 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.027,-0.153,0.074 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.033,-0.034,0.097 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.058,0.018,0.107 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.324,0.198,0.433 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.074,-0.156,-0.022 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.154,0.032 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.045,-0.124,0.012 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.139,0.044 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.058,0.017 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.126,0.035 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.033,-0.102,0.023 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.052,0.097 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.063,0.093 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.06,-0.052,0.172 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.016,-0.047,0.078 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,-0.005,-0.093,0.062 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.054,-0.009,0.113 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.079,-0.006,0.156 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.422 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.097,-0.144,-0.056 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.144,0.009 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.067,-0.122,-0.019 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.142,0.022 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.041,-0.108,0.015 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.111,0.003 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.002,-0.083,0.082 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.113,-0.005 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.002,-0.084,0.082 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.102,0.059 +AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.041,-0.014,0.136 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.005,-0.086,0.079 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.053,-0.043,0.132 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.025,-0.095,0.033 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.034,-0.034,0.1 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.011,0.123 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.076,0.236 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.136,0.266 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.231,0.412 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.075,-0.156,-0.022 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.154,0.032 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.038,-0.139,0.044 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.126,0.035 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.051,0.097 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.063,0.093 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.06,-0.052,0.172 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.016,-0.047,0.078 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.072,-0.036,0.171 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.054,-0.009,0.113 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.079,-0.006,0.156 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.177,0.068,0.264 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.217,0.128,0.295 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.422 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.284,-0.054 Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.115,-0.273,0.002 +Drift,LightGBM,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.112,-0.22,-0.038 Drift,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.105,-0.282,0.024 +Drift,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.086,-0.216,0.007 Drift,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.098,-0.244,0.005 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.041,-0.153,0.061 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.043,-0.158,0.014 +Drift,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.099,-0.209,-0.02 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.041,-0.155,0.061 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.064,-0.208,0.05 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.043,-0.158,0.014 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.048,-0.227,0.071 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.012,-0.193,0.142 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.069,-0.247,0.038 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.119,0.086 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.02,-0.09,0.108 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.124,-0.064,0.234 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.241 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.296,0.127,0.41 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.167,-0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.064,-0.122,-0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.062,-0.138,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.11,-0.004 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.037,-0.115,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.109,0.003 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,0.007,-0.067,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.005,-0.086,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.049,-0.121,0.019 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.006,-0.068,0.093 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.016,-0.085,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.005,-0.086,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.045,-0.076,0.185 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.057,-0.034,0.15 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.081,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.039,-0.007,0.091 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.064,-0.008,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.095,0.228 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.109,0.293 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.226,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.271,-0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.128,-0.241,-0.034 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.118,-0.241,-0.026 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.111,-0.224,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.053,-0.228,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.056,-0.153,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.077,-0.207,0.035 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.012,-0.165,0.162 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.06,-0.177,0.033 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.07,-0.116,-0.02 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.043,-0.093,0.006 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.04,-0.093,0.028 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.033,-0.076,0.011 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.016,-0.079,0.055 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.069,0.015 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.028,-0.081,0.035 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.08,0.132 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.667,0.004,-0.067,0.085 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.025,-0.035,0.086 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.065,-0.04,0.198 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.036,0.075 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.019,-0.156,0.089 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.146,0.14 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.113,0.02,0.191 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.156,0.023,0.274 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.181,0.389 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.058,-0.009,0.122 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.083,-0.005,0.174 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.249,0.435 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.136,-0.202,-0.073 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.175,-0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.104,-0.157,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.167,-0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.078,-0.143,-0.02 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.09,-0.145,-0.043 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.033,-0.107,0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.112,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.091,-0.136,-0.049 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.034,-0.107,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.057,-0.128,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.112,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.094,0.106 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.04,-0.1,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.019,-0.097,0.135 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.062,-0.138,0.008 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.026,-0.016,0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.036,0.202 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.107,0.235 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.389 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.245,-0.088 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.24,-0.053 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.216,-0.054 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.229,-0.048 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.108,-0.208,-0.021 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.196,-0.053 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.061,-0.118,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.141,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.121,-0.198,-0.047 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.062,-0.12,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.086,-0.185,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.141,0.011 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.02,-0.121,0.083 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.068,-0.166,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.163,0.127 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.09,-0.211,0.005 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.086,0.015 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.106,-0.0,0.194 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.086,0.21 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.282,0.162,0.388 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.434,-0.185 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.272,-0.372,-0.176 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.342,-0.184 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.253,-0.356,-0.153 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.187,-0.361,-0.044 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.19,-0.309,-0.083 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.215,-0.358,-0.073 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.141,-0.305,0.06 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.296,-0.104 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.127,-0.237,-0.021 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.254,-0.037 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.119,-0.24,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.049,-0.051,0.164 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.082,0.299 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.529,-0.242 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.504,-0.194 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.488,-0.189 -Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.317,-0.462,-0.193 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.398,-0.131 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.362,-0.157 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.277,-0.419,-0.147 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.318,-0.098 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.257,-0.415,-0.122 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.185,-0.377,-0.024 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.208,-0.307,-0.119 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.265,-0.094 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.051,-0.197,0.049 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.156,0.021,0.261 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.907,-0.407 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.872,-0.353 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.581,-0.845,-0.364 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.821,-0.358 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.752,-0.36 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.56,-0.837,-0.345 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.479,-0.763,-0.248 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.7,-0.301 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.812,-0.352 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.48,-0.763,-0.247 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.73,-0.344 +Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.7,-0.301 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.421,-0.694,-0.146 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.489,-0.709,-0.292 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.404,-0.637,-0.222 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.769,-0.332 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.431,-0.638,-0.246 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.393,-0.634,-0.193 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.245,-0.427,-0.09 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.185,-0.353,-0.022 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv index 8375cb48b5a40499437894864f4c74ca2af9eb12..3ac569ceb987e799cfa9bed273c424c7b974c4d8 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.007,-0.028,0.036 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.017,-0.034,0.06 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.071,-0.005,0.143 +TiRex,FlowState,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.045,-0.023,0.098 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.07,-0.008,0.143 TiRex,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.127,0.025,0.268 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.046,0.002,0.086 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.08,0.038,0.122 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.094,0.019,0.181 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.05,0.141 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.031,0.166 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.063,0.197 TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.169,0.055,0.293 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.053,0.185 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.334 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.213,0.382 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.174,0.088,0.262 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.183,0.143,0.22 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.467 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.007,-0.037,0.027 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.01,-0.042,0.051 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.02,0.141 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.038,-0.034,0.106 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,-0.021,0.141 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.02,0.261 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,0.005,0.072 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.074,0.039,0.111 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.088,0.009,0.174 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.043,0.142 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.092,0.031,0.161 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.122,0.059,0.192 Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.036,0.303 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.115,0.046,0.178 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.215,0.324 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.202,0.388 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.168,0.087,0.249 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.177,0.128,0.232 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.286,0.457 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.017,-0.064,0.033 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.01,-0.053,0.04 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.055,-0.011,0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.029,-0.016,0.073 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.054,-0.012,0.118 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.112,0.011,0.257 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.03,-0.01,0.063 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.065,0.013,0.121 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.079,0.03,0.146 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.078,0.024,0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.083,0.023,0.143 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,0.048,0.171 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.061,0.279 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.107,0.07,0.148 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.191,0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.206,0.375 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.16,0.078,0.259 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.139,0.21 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.288,0.452 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.005 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.164,0.019 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.133,0.011 +FlowState,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.047,-0.109,0.023 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.04,-0.118,0.033 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.029,-0.079,0.016 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.292,0.833,0.027,-0.057,0.11 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.086,-0.042,0.243 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.065,0.055 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.037,-0.024,0.11 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.052,0.005,0.102 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.051,-0.002,0.101 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.087,0.013,0.162 +FlowState,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.13,0.042,0.241 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.08,0.03,0.133 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.063,0.219 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.145,0.102,0.18 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.274,0.424 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.076,-0.167,0.008 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.068,-0.164,0.021 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.058,-0.134,0.012 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.708,-0.027,-0.124,0.054 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.06,-0.086,0.229 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.01,-0.075,0.075 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.06,0.101 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.024,-0.031,0.081 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.03,-0.103,0.146 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.062,0.022,0.109 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.752,0.061,-0.086,0.229 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.134,0.065 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.5,0.958,0.011,-0.075,0.076 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.059,0.101 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.025,-0.031,0.083 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,0.958,0.062,0.021,0.111 Toto-1.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.106,-0.014,0.216 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.028,0.135 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.222,0.115,0.321 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.157,0.335 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.216,0.435 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.055,-0.029,0.136 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,0.919,0.112,0.002,0.233 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.121,0.055,0.184 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.215,0.436 AutoETS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.367,-0.025 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.137,-0.354,-0.02 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.126,-0.345,-0.012 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.064,-0.297,0.08 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.094,-0.322,0.04 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.248,0.75,-0.065,-0.298,0.08 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.092,-0.306,0.025 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.053,-0.259,0.072 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.271,0.112 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.039,-0.251,0.086 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.032,-0.263,0.102 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.001,-0.211,0.131 AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.048,-0.2,0.237 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.006,-0.228,0.119 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.002,0.286 -AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.2,0.001,0.337 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.054,-0.175,0.203 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.064,-0.129,0.175 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.084,0.43 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.048,-0.094,-0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.077,-0.005 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.031,-0.067,0.009 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.058,0.061 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.025,-0.069,0.118 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.085,-0.026,0.234 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.012,0.086 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.415,0.917,0.051,-0.02,0.134 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.015,0.114 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.086,0.005,0.17 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.129,0.014,0.28 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.079,0.026,0.129 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.05,0.228 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.098,0.204 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.266,0.435 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.087,-0.139,-0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.08,-0.124,-0.041 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.069,-0.137,-0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.01,-0.081,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.039,-0.124,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.5,-0.011,-0.082,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.051,-0.077,0.205 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.037,-0.094,0.012 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.015,-0.066,0.089 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.014,-0.034,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.02,-0.059,0.098 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.052,-0.014,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.097,-0.046,0.255 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.045,-0.043,0.116 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.15,0.272 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.136,0.34 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.102,0.009,0.194 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.112,0.044,0.176 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.224,0.407 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.104,-0.221,-0.019 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.21,-0.009 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.086,-0.171,-0.031 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.026,-0.112,0.056 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.055,-0.113,-0.005 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.113,0.056 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.126,0.213 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.585,-0.053,-0.154,0.02 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.016,-0.097,0.062 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.08,0.069 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.005,-0.101,0.09 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.037,-0.064,0.125 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.049,0.224 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.03,-0.058,0.107 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.201,0.09,0.294 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.322 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.088,-0.009,0.203 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.098,0.012,0.161 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.242,0.396 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.164,-0.052 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.165,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.084,-0.151,-0.024 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.088,0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.053,-0.113,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.025,-0.09,0.03 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.037,-0.094,0.201 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.128,0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.014,-0.077,0.032 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.074,0.074 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.006,-0.093,0.108 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.039,-0.001,0.09 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.084,-0.028,0.199 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.031,-0.044,0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.109,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.158,0.296 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.089,0.02,0.168 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.099,0.057,0.138 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.318,0.219,0.402 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.109,-0.2,-0.031 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.102,-0.192,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.091,-0.167,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.031,-0.171,0.093 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.031,-0.114,0.208 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.02,-0.109,0.056 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.005,-0.099,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.006,-0.121,0.085 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.033,-0.089,0.147 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.078,-0.057,0.251 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.025,-0.038,0.091 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.122,0.263 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.225,0.109,0.337 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.229,0.401 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.245,-0.067 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.139,-0.237,-0.063 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.206,-0.05 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.066,-0.123,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.096,-0.194,-0.013 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.375,-0.066,-0.124,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.002,-0.151,0.175 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.094,-0.205,-0.005 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.055,-0.145,0.014 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.142,0.06 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.04,-0.099,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.034,-0.173,0.082 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.076,0.17 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.008,-0.087,0.069 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,0.072,0.253 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.199,0.12,0.272 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.053,-0.038,0.15 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.063,-0.006,0.126 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.291,0.176,0.391 Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.204,-0.414,-0.058 Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.435,-0.037 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.386,-0.065 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.276,0.014 +Drift,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.15,-0.317,-0.044 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.119,-0.275,0.014 Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.051,-0.31,0.166 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.148,-0.389,-0.015 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.107,-0.342,0.044 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.09,-0.289,0.047 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.091,-0.248,0.027 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.085,-0.334,0.054 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.204,0.07 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,0.917,-0.057,-0.232,0.028 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.13,-0.097,0.26 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.082,0.234 +Drift,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.006,-0.184,0.147 +Drift,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.017,-0.107,0.097 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.256,0.054,0.378 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.227,-0.056 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.13,-0.217,-0.048 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.119,-0.173,-0.075 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.156,0.027 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.087,-0.153,-0.031 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.058,-0.158,0.029 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.006,-0.136,0.186 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.086,-0.148,-0.026 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.047,-0.131,0.041 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.031,-0.12,0.055 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.032,-0.114,0.042 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.026,-0.101,0.037 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.008,-0.075,0.08 AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.083,0.5,0.054,-0.029,0.188 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.177,0.099,0.254 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.128,0.291 +AutoTheta,DeepAR,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.06,-0.039,0.16 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.07,0.01,0.126 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.216,0.375 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.501,-0.264 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.48,-0.274 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.36,-0.49,-0.236 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.285,-0.472,-0.13 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.207,-0.401,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.272,-0.374,-0.176 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.252,-0.417,-0.099 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.376,-0.123 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.357,-0.139 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.339,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.351,0.088 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.215,-0.341,-0.11 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.034,-0.089,0.177 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.145,0.018,0.25 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.619,-0.27 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.633,-0.253 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.6,-0.259 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.503,-0.186 -Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.25,-0.508,-0.001 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.316,-0.515,-0.157 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.296,-0.475,-0.146 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.42,-0.188 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.29,-0.508,-0.122 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.248,-0.374,-0.137 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.305,-0.089 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.41,-0.146 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.035,-0.215,0.082 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.115,-0.055,0.229 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.211,-0.354,-0.096 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.202,-0.331,-0.095 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.35,-0.084 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.157,-0.28,-0.067 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.081,0.5,-0.126,-0.304,-0.002 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.057,-0.255,0.149 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.155,-0.295,-0.052 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.114,-0.24,-0.009 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.097,-0.255,0.009 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.098,-0.202,-0.02 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.056,-0.177,0.037 +DeepAR,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.006,-0.172,0.155 +DeepAR,AutoTheta,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.064,-0.191,0.037 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.011,-0.102,0.102 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.251,0.17,0.336 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.224,-0.283,-0.166 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.215,-0.303,-0.147 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.265,-0.161 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.169,-0.219,-0.113 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.138,-0.226,-0.058 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.212,0.115 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.256,-0.109 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.126,-0.214,-0.046 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.108,-0.192,-0.012 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.11,-0.161,-0.06 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.067,-0.144,0.006 +LightGBM,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.017,-0.107,0.096 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.075,-0.144,-0.011 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.011,-0.113,0.092 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.243,0.126,0.34 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.877,-0.392 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.842,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.824,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.503,-0.771,-0.275 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.545,-0.736,-0.377 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.504,-0.774,-0.274 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.755,-0.091 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.769,-0.363 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.487,-0.686,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.465,-0.656,-0.319 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.467,-0.673,-0.28 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.668,-0.296 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.41,-0.643,-0.214 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.344,-0.607,-0.057 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.599,-0.275 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.17,-0.333,-0.019 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.13,-0.297,0.052 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.336,-0.505,-0.204 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.321,-0.515,-0.144 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 5a672381746bc44ade14788e1e3feab93b0199db..94f01ced06bcf6f73c19abe771c87cc62ad038ec 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.007,-0.118,0.073 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.019,-0.026,0.055 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.013,0.132 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.057,-0.011,0.131 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.029,-0.01,0.066 +TiRex,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.132,0.081 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.019,-0.098,0.11 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.039,-0.111,0.151 TiRex,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.045,-0.022,0.113 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.053,-0.079,0.157 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.042,-0.105,0.143 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.032,-0.075,0.116 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.043,0.176 -TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.13,-0.069,0.279 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.132,0.04,0.235 +TiRex,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.13,-0.069,0.279 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.087,-0.092,0.23 -TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.26,0.135,0.394 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.243,0.154,0.322 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.378,0.252,0.503 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.007,-0.079,0.105 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.026,-0.052,0.124 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.026,0.153 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.064,-0.025,0.153 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.036,-0.044,0.138 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.009,-0.049,0.064 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.026,-0.033,0.082 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.046,-0.019,0.117 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.051,0.006,0.104 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.059,-0.02,0.135 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.049,-0.01,0.104 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.038,-0.015,0.077 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.111,0.016,0.202 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.017,0.263 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.138,0.035,0.235 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.136,0.017,0.263 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.093,0.006,0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.136,0.387 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.339 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.284,0.478 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.019,-0.059,0.025 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.026,-0.142,0.05 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.05,0.132 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.039,-0.047,0.129 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.01,-0.025,0.05 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.017,-0.169,0.081 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.0,-0.134,0.102 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.021,-0.142,0.136 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.04,0.085 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.035,-0.112,0.148 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.139,0.134 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.013,-0.106,0.11 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.087,0.014,0.175 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.114,-0.101,0.291 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.115,0.018,0.219 +Chronos-2,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.114,-0.101,0.291 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.07,-0.127,0.214 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.246,0.102,0.391 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.153,0.304 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.366,0.237,0.489 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.152,0.013 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.025 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.152,0.047 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.061,-0.151,0.011 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.068,-0.181,0.024 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.041,-0.149,0.045 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.14,0.051 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.063 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.164,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.14,0.072 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.092 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.077,-0.097,0.197 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.625,1.0,0.079,0.026,0.142 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.139,0.166 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.104,0.331 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.197,0.07,0.294 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.03,-0.139,0.05 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.059,-0.205,0.059 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.192,0.084 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.019,-0.168,0.102 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.013,-0.1,0.062 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.016,-0.165,0.098 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.027,-0.138,0.071 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.05,0.006,0.093 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.542,0.958,0.079,0.026,0.145 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.077,-0.098,0.198 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.032,-0.141,0.168 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.34,0.203,0.463 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.03,-0.071,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.037,-0.161,0.042 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.25,0.833,-0.011,-0.052,0.025 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.054,0.123 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.029,-0.053,0.122 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.174,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.01,-0.144,0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.011,-0.151,0.126 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.016,-0.058,0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.024,-0.121,0.142 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.013,-0.148,0.118 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.002,-0.108,0.082 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.875,0.078,0.002,0.167 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.104,-0.116,0.272 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.106,0.001,0.216 +TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.104,-0.116,0.272 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.06,-0.138,0.209 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.238,0.088,0.384 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.142,0.296 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.359,0.235,0.479 +FlowState,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.002,-0.088,0.117 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.009,-0.068,0.047 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.017,-0.088,0.144 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.056,-0.062,0.17 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.064,0.149 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.018,-0.056,0.079 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.038,-0.03,0.127 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.043,-0.045,0.131 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.04,-0.011,0.111 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.03,-0.016,0.077 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.103,-0.011,0.214 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.131,-0.007,0.259 +FlowState,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.129,0.015,0.255 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.086,-0.015,0.205 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.376,0.258,0.488 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.124,0.089 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.027,-0.089,0.032 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.0,-0.113,0.119 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.039,-0.092,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.01,-0.095,0.126 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.018,-0.086,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.026,-0.063,0.099 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.023,-0.053,0.095 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.917,0.012,-0.076,0.092 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.087,-0.047,0.2 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.115,-0.032,0.239 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.113,-0.009,0.25 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.069,-0.015,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.273,0.457 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.041,-0.178,0.1 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.048,-0.133,0.018 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.021,-0.157,0.125 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.019,-0.114,0.144 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.011,-0.145,0.131 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.039,-0.146,0.029 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.021,-0.113,0.061 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.006,-0.085,0.101 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.003,-0.02,0.023 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.008,-0.127,0.076 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.068,-0.042,0.181 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.097,-0.019,0.21 +CatBoost,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.095,0.001,0.192 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.05,-0.023,0.119 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.249,0.443 AutoETS,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.047,-0.127,0.022 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.054,-0.115,-0.006 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.093,0.039 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.067,0.091 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.013,-0.066,0.091 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.016,-0.095,0.055 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.045,-0.151,0.043 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.027,-0.11,0.059 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.006,-0.113,0.079 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.008,-0.094,0.112 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.003,-0.108,0.075 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.014,-0.108,0.063 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.063,-0.003,0.135 -AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.09,-0.071,0.231 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.092,0.012,0.167 +AutoETS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.09,-0.071,0.231 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.044,-0.086,0.148 -AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.099,0.346 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.127,0.279 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.248,0.455 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.056,-0.187,0.073 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.063,-0.156,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.036,-0.174,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.155,0.141 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.025,-0.165,0.108 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.583,0.25,0.833,-0.009,-0.126,0.086 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.023,-0.135,0.081 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.055,-0.107,0.185 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.234 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.084,-0.089,0.226 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.036,-0.065,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.073,0.351 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.308 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.242,0.437 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.044,-0.167,0.095 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.051,-0.116,0.01 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.024,-0.154,0.122 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.167,0.75,0.016,-0.108,0.142 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.014,-0.134,0.129 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.042,-0.124,0.011 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.024,-0.105,0.05 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.003,-0.024,0.02 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.003,-0.081,0.098 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.011,-0.107,0.063 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.065,-0.039,0.177 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.25,0.833,0.094,-0.024,0.211 +LightGBM,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.092,0.0,0.192 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.047,-0.024,0.121 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.35,0.246,0.442 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.033,-0.131,0.07 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.04,-0.084,0.014 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.013,-0.124,0.096 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.027,-0.077,0.123 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.027,-0.076,0.121 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.003,-0.089,0.098 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.031,-0.083,0.016 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.083,0.667,-0.013,-0.102,0.071 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,0.008,-0.083,0.113 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.014,-0.067,0.097 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.022,-0.089,0.119 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.011,-0.067,0.096 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.076,-0.037,0.184 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.102,-0.037,0.249 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.104,-0.025,0.23 +AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.102,-0.037,0.249 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.057,-0.064,0.19 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.5,0.917,0.236,0.084,0.383 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.219,0.084,0.33 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.24,0.471 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.213,-0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.125,-0.253,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.096,-0.213,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.101,-0.006 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.053,-0.102,-0.006 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.125,0.583,-0.084,-0.2,-0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.115,-0.272,0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.095,-0.249,0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.073,-0.221,0.041 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.067,-0.156,0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.058,-0.227,0.097 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.07,-0.216,0.037 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.082,-0.226,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.15,0.149 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.031,-0.022,0.094 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.029,-0.15,0.149 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.02,-0.201,0.115 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.174,0.068,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.155,0.026,0.239 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.305,0.17,0.432 -Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.15,-0.388,0.065 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.356,-0.017 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.41,0.092 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.084,-0.246,0.088 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.374,0.104 -Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.098,-0.3,0.066 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.089,-0.305,0.063 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.114,-0.332,0.036 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.175,0.13 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.002,-0.146,0.163 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.05,-0.184,0.016 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.045,0.251 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.13,-0.09,0.296 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.11,0.391 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.152,-0.307,-0.042 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.16,-0.308,-0.037 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.131,-0.281,-0.018 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.375,-0.086,-0.166,-0.027 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.042,0.458,-0.086,-0.169,-0.026 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.119,-0.275,-0.001 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.15,-0.35,0.007 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.13,-0.314,0.031 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.107,-0.266,0.019 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.101,-0.201,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.091,-0.291,0.082 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.417,0.167,0.75,-0.104,-0.268,0.024 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.116,-0.299,0.024 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.032,-0.104,0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.002,-0.195,0.127 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.002,-0.195,0.127 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.052,-0.228,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.147,0.051,0.248 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,-0.003,0.227 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.152,0.405 +Drift,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.15,-0.388,0.065 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.158,-0.356,-0.017 +Drift,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.41,0.092 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.084,-0.247,0.089 +Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.116,-0.374,0.104 +Drift,FlowState,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.148,-0.342,-0.015 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.128,-0.334,0.009 +Drift,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.104,-0.237,-0.001 +Drift,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.098,-0.3,0.066 +Drift,LightGBM,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.101,-0.238,-0.0 +Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.114,-0.332,0.036 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.029,-0.175,0.13 +Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.002,-0.146,0.163 +Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Drift,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,-0.05,-0.184,0.016 +Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.11,0.391 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.096,-0.299,0.084 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.103,-0.229,-0.006 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.075,-0.273,0.113 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.033,-0.199,0.122 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.033,-0.201,0.124 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.064,-0.263,0.122 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.094,-0.258,0.014 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.074,-0.192,0.015 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.052,-0.135,0.022 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.046,-0.174,0.079 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.038,-0.16,0.061 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.049,-0.138,0.023 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.061,-0.235,0.061 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.019,-0.13,0.167 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.047,-0.016,0.156 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.049,-0.092,0.186 +AutoTheta,Drift,0.25,0.0,0.5,0.047,-0.016,0.156 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.189,0.084,0.29 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.171,0.057,0.303 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.391 -Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.352,-0.649,-0.156 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.631,-0.157 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.326,-0.642,-0.113 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.494,-0.116 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.312,-0.623,-0.097 -Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.291,-0.53,-0.11 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.54,-0.079 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.5,-0.309,-0.62,-0.092 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.21,-0.396,-0.073 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.335,-0.047 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.173,-0.33,-0.053 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.234,-0.408,-0.092 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.023,-0.218,0.11 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.159,0.001,0.281 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.476,-0.182 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.513,-0.171 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.436,-0.181 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.246,-0.416,-0.075 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.421,-0.165 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.386,-0.145 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.445,-0.097 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.28,-0.493,-0.091 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.183,-0.315,-0.026 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.149,-0.421,0.082 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.147,-0.294,0.002 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.206,-0.435,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.022,-0.123,0.179 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.177,0.057,0.284 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.607,-1.014,-0.337 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.915,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.576,-0.957,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.514,-0.863,-0.255 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.515,-0.863,-0.255 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.56,-0.92,-0.308 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.604,-0.954,-0.348 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.842,-0.375 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.796,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.834,-0.33 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.775,-0.319 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.539,-0.791,-0.326 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.891,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.438,-0.76,-0.205 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.397,-0.643,-0.124 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.681,-0.179 +Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.397,-0.643,-0.124 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.467,-0.643,-0.311 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.189,-0.391,-0.001 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.216,-0.396,-0.06 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv index aacab92ade6d42a196177723655f8cd48184593f..d52d829c182bb2586caf6759998a810992efffd3 100644 --- a/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_econ/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,9 +1,10 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.019,-0.029,0.058 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.065,0.009,0.127 +TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.02,-0.099,0.09 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.064,0.009,0.124 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.047,0.005,0.084 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.062,-0.038,0.149 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.032,-0.059,0.112 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.066,-0.055,0.161 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.102,0.047,0.167 TiRex,AutoETS,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.084,0.017,0.145 @@ -11,14 +12,15 @@ TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.138,0.051,0.236 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.117,-0.008,0.227 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.183,0.017,0.322 TiRex,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.24,0.039,0.386 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.205,0.38 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.221,0.471 +TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.166,0.353 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.106,0.306 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.287,0.546 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.02,-0.062,0.028 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.047,-0.03,0.132 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.142,0.096 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.046,-0.028,0.132 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.028,-0.008,0.061 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.043,-0.066,0.134 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.013,-0.089,0.095 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.048,-0.082,0.141 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.084,0.014,0.167 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.004,0.112 @@ -26,29 +28,47 @@ Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.667,0.333,0.917,0.122,0.031,0.22 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.099,-0.035,0.22 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.167,-0.006,0.299 Chronos-2,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.225,0.01,0.391 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.209,0.358 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.471 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.151,0.333 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.081,0.289 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.41,0.281,0.527 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.145,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.049,-0.152,0.029 +FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.02,-0.099,0.09 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.106,0.124 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.045,-0.064,0.156 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.027,-0.07,0.156 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.012,-0.07,0.076 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.047,-0.025,0.119 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.083,-0.022,0.187 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.065,-0.019,0.146 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.332,0.833,0.121,-0.009,0.243 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.099,0.019,0.191 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.166,0.06,0.274 +FlowState,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.224,0.102,0.342 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.145,0.334 +FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.147,0.268 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.409,0.289,0.52 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.069,-0.142,-0.009 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.048,-0.153,0.028 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.047,-0.184,0.06 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.115,0.049 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.004,-0.135,0.114 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.001,-0.133,0.109 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.039,0.004,0.074 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.071,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.025,0.148 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.055,-0.086,0.182 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.046,0.264 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.187,-0.005,0.316 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.249,0.132,0.337 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.415 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.238,0.505 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.113,0.05 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.035,-0.158,0.074 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.002,-0.131,0.109 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.833,0.667,1.0,0.04,0.003,0.076 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.072,0.095 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.079,0.024,0.151 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.056,-0.084,0.182 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.047,0.265 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.187,-0.006,0.318 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.101,0.304 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.162,0.041,0.257 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.381,0.237,0.506 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.049,-0.092,-0.005 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.029,-0.064,0.008 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.103 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.028,-0.185,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.052,0.102 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.016,-0.106,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.13,0.074 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.021,-0.12,0.113 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.058,-0.015,0.143 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.04,-0.045,0.104 @@ -56,29 +76,31 @@ TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.096,-0.002,0.206 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.074,-0.073,0.186 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.143,-0.049,0.286 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.203,-0.028,0.375 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.182,0.346 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.315,0.161,0.458 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.223,0.112,0.322 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.046,0.276 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.393,0.257,0.517 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.066,-0.175,0.037 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.045,-0.154,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.004,-0.129,0.119 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.016,-0.134,0.096 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.033,-0.126,0.056 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.013,-0.105,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.012,-0.082,0.066 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.034,-0.08,0.137 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.015,-0.08,0.115 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.005,-0.084,0.091 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.043,-0.082,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.024,-0.064,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.082,-0.067,0.207 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.059,-0.057,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.129,0.023,0.236 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.19,0.03,0.353 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.154,0.347 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.304,0.18,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.282,0.484 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.833,0.036,-0.043,0.12 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.072,-0.043,0.173 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.054,-0.021,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.583,0.331,0.833,0.11,-0.023,0.223 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.088,-0.016,0.201 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.156,0.047,0.26 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.215,0.057,0.367 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.235,0.112,0.332 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.191,0.112,0.266 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.302,0.502 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.071,-0.192,0.052 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.05,-0.164,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.001,-0.123,0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.049,-0.135,0.025 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.002,-0.122,0.116 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.127,0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.005,-0.1,0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.037,-0.136,0.042 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.038,-0.083,0.155 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.068,0.095 @@ -86,14 +108,15 @@ Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.077,-0.064,0.201 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.054,-0.0,0.099 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.037,0.224 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.041,0.338 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.248,0.115,0.362 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.159,0.433 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.206,0.102,0.299 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.161,0.062,0.245 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.283,0.482 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.113,-0.2,-0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.092,-0.2,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.079,-0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.091,-0.23,0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.333,-0.041,-0.083,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.061,-0.167,0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.045,-0.189,0.075 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.078,-0.208,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.04,-0.184,0.077 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.019,-0.125,0.057 @@ -101,14 +124,15 @@ Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.041,-0.012,0.105 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.017,-0.147,0.157 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.09,-0.083,0.223 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.154,-0.033,0.28 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.218,0.093,0.302 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.167,0.374 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.175,0.087,0.257 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.128,0.018,0.212 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.355,0.212,0.48 AutoETS,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.092,-0.169,-0.018 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.126,-0.004 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.021,-0.105,0.066 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.07,-0.17,0.018 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.022,-0.104,0.067 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.041,-0.116,0.043 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.025,-0.104,0.06 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.057,-0.126,0.021 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.02,-0.105,0.064 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.019,-0.06,0.111 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 @@ -116,14 +140,15 @@ AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.059,-0.034,0.15 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.035,-0.082,0.151 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.108,-0.026,0.227 AutoETS,Drift,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.17,-0.016,0.334 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322 -AutoETS,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.287,0.148,0.417 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.191,0.101,0.272 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.144,0.059,0.224 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.368,0.243,0.486 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.161,-0.309,-0.053 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.333,0.083,0.667,-0.138,-0.282,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.085,-0.173,-0.026 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.417,0.167,0.668,-0.137,-0.321,0.009 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.086,-0.178,-0.024 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.107,-0.259,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.089,-0.262,0.063 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.669,-0.124,-0.287,0.023 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.084,-0.251,0.061 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.043,-0.118,0.012 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.063,-0.177,0.033 @@ -131,14 +156,15 @@ Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.025,-0.226,0.141 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.051,-0.119,0.187 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.118,-0.083,0.257 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.185,0.061,0.279 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.242,0.127,0.337 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.14,0.039,0.227 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.091,-0.029,0.185 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.328,0.183,0.456 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.132,-0.294,0.008 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.11,-0.282,0.034 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.222,0.079 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.109,-0.235,-0.02 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.059,-0.222,0.077 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.079,-0.228,0.068 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.167,0.75,-0.062,-0.215,0.054 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.096,-0.252,0.016 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.057,-0.109,0.0 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.017,-0.187,0.128 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.037,-0.178,0.076 @@ -146,14 +172,15 @@ AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.025,-0.164,0.185 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.075,-0.043,0.214 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.139,-0.024,0.304 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.205,0.026,0.344 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.26,0.092,0.423 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.161,0.025,0.281 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.113,-0.028,0.232 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.225,0.467 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.224,-0.476,-0.017 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.2,-0.426,0.006 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.358,0.044 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.199,-0.378,-0.063 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.145,-0.36,0.045 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.167,-0.401,0.046 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.148,-0.309,-0.024 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.351,-0.05 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.289,-0.038 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.099,-0.286,0.076 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.12,-0.293,0.025 @@ -161,14 +188,15 @@ AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.054,-0.229,0.106 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.081,-0.273,0.041 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoTheta,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,0.07,-0.028,0.226 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.141,0.015,0.293 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.088,0.318 +AutoTheta,DeepAR,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.093,-0.048,0.214 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.75,0.5,1.0,0.041,-0.076,0.139 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.222,0.357 Drift,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.315,-0.628,-0.04 Drift,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.29,-0.643,-0.01 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.23,-0.461,0.005 +Drift,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.289,-0.52,-0.114 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.231,-0.465,0.006 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.254,-0.6,0.027 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.234,-0.546,-0.031 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.274,-0.581,-0.061 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.228,-0.511,-0.043 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.182,-0.389,0.032 Drift,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.205,-0.5,0.015 @@ -176,44 +204,47 @@ Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.133,-0.347,0.076 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.162,-0.437,0.023 Drift,AutoTheta,0.667,0.417,0.917,-0.075,-0.292,0.027 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.076,-0.217,0.284 -Drift,Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.141,0.034,0.242 +Drift,DeepAR,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.025,-0.175,0.187 +Drift,CatBoost,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.031,-0.213,0.102 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.75,1.0,0.238,0.002,0.366 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.613,-0.258 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.557,-0.264 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.332,-0.509,-0.153 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.358,-0.528,-0.222 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.532,-0.181 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.33,-0.567,-0.13 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.279,-0.433,-0.103 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.474,-0.159 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.227,-0.387,-0.066 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.258,-0.524,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.164,-0.415,-0.015 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.083,-0.397,0.178 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.07,-0.096,0.23 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.175,0.01,0.298 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.889,-0.283 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.89,-0.236 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.431,-0.708,-0.233 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.459,-0.846,-0.192 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.436,-0.746,-0.219 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.765,-0.19 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.375,-0.598,-0.2 -Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.402,-0.715,-0.174 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.319,-0.508,-0.145 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.352,-0.732,-0.102 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.251,-0.466,-0.096 -Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.164,-0.32,-0.035 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.075,-0.298,0.087 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.114,-0.095,0.248 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.545,-0.2 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.498,-0.178 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.501,-0.169 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.262,-0.437,-0.113 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.286,-0.474,-0.126 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.307,-0.498,-0.126 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.26,-0.426,-0.114 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.212,-0.345,-0.096 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.236,-0.374,-0.112 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.163,-0.293,-0.041 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.192,-0.391,-0.026 +DeepAR,AutoTheta,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.103,-0.272,0.045 +DeepAR,Drift,0.583,0.333,0.833,-0.026,-0.23,0.149 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.417,0.167,0.667,-0.057,-0.184,0.06 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.417,0.917,0.219,0.07,0.365 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.276,-0.442,-0.119 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.407,-0.088 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.366,-0.172 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.194,-0.347,-0.043 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.217,-0.382,-0.048 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.236,-0.363,-0.126 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.192,-0.324,-0.067 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.146,-0.268,-0.018 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.169,-0.288,-0.063 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.1,-0.228,0.029 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.127,-0.302,0.027 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.043,-0.161,0.071 +CatBoost,Drift,0.417,0.167,0.667,0.03,-0.113,0.175 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.583,0.333,0.833,0.054,-0.063,0.155 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.583,1.0,0.261,0.126,0.384 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.727,-1.204,-0.402 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.694,-1.116,-0.391 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.615,-1.022,-0.312 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.692,-1.082,-0.407 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.616,-1.022,-0.311 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.647,-1.071,-0.346 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.938,-0.393 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-1.007,-0.432 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.931,-0.394 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.551,-0.924,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.581,-0.947,-0.321 @@ -221,6 +252,6 @@ Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.5,-0.488,-0.838,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.875,-0.291 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.556,-0.286 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.083,0.0,0.25,-0.313,-0.578,-0.002 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.213,-0.424,-0.01 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.128,-0.33,0.087 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.333,0.083,0.583,-0.28,-0.576,-0.076 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.167,0.0,0.417,-0.353,-0.625,-0.144 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 6ec0eacdb59fdc9cf44f55ea5e2fabe8e2d2eef5..1fe23d622600a858bd91c1b713078cd9152d2d4a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.20879120879124,35.398352594765115,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.41208791208793,25.111125985019022,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.17582417582418,24.470577245081294,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.05494505494507,24.79493117234646,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.03296703296704,28.931010322468566,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.65934065934066,23.276855755353097,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.69780219780219,25.973734598235776,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.56043956043956,22.175386726803193,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.83516483516484,5.123802463450922,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoARIMA,36.53846153846153,3.34881134283036,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -Seasonal Naive,30.35714285714285,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,1.1815957493498508,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,17.857142857142858,-34.975498607867614,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.44505494505494,-44.77392099300393,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.593406593406594,-52.299123287549286,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.00000000000001,35.398351985937104,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,74.23076923076923,25.111125954829205,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.26923076923076,24.470577229456005,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,73.07692307692307,29.948417313219487,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,69.61538461538461,24.79493112223894,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,67.5,24.74097538777954,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.53846153846153,23.276855703905884,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Sundial-Base,64.61538461538461,25.973733886600225,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.46153846153847,22.17352687153604,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,54.61538461538462,24.332626654075018,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,50.480769230769226,20.515410969632153,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +PatchTST,47.11538461538461,18.853426287300014,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,47.11538461538461,17.15191259995018,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,43.269230769230774,14.854815383201469,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.0576923076923,4.447406228151163,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,34.13461538461538,2.212327431466543,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +Seasonal Naive,27.307692307692307,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,26.730769230769237,1.1815956958414753,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,18.076923076923077,-34.97549884253801,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.057692307692307,-44.773921203129,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.730769230769232,-52.29912347479908,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 84ccc1761acab3972c52cef45aca2bfba115d56f..b8f973be84e3b08d2a78a7736092655303fc999d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.13186813186815,43.69603844728434,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.28021978021978,34.44791487661235,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.82417582417582,33.04019456805117,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,73.62637362637363,38.076295973948326,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.6043956043956,32.88168947733126,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.13186813186815,31.522824785428526,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-1.0,67.03296703296705,31.075422556050736,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Sundial-Base,55.35714285714286,28.52842382801387,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -AutoARIMA,39.28571428571428,9.387893004882919,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -Stat. Ensemble,37.08791208791208,7.135433823240489,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -Seasonal Naive,25.96153846153846,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.725274725274723,-30.21022947475347,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.05494505494506,-10.643501735785609,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.873626373626374,-60.57154436477256,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.0219780219780215,-67.3016516015588,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.11538461538463,43.696037899366445,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,80.96153846153847,34.44791484004565,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,78.07692307692308,38.63838178079146,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.57692307692308,33.040194549839576,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,71.34615384615385,32.881689430291104,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.96153846153847,32.4100685185642,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.84615384615384,31.52282472603488,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Toto-1.0,68.26923076923077,31.112045696230428,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,61.73076923076925,32.085719324643314,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,55.96153846153846,28.52842311909273,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +DeepAR,53.17307692307692,26.66949092254881,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +PatchTST,51.34615384615384,25.60679591439182,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,39.13461538461539,9.139931178596383,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +Stat. Ensemble,35.67307692307692,6.196332966589502,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +CatBoost,32.69230769230768,8.874064288365757,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,29.038461538461537,6.34745033907752,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,25.769230769230774,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,22.307692307692303,-30.210229740669558,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,20.769230769230766,-10.643501874241924,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.019230769230766,-60.57154490567112,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.230769230769231,-67.3016518958006,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 6bd3b2b596675f7cce4a2390dcef7a77cbe20f70..eaa818c8f23f224c42945e13c285248e94f72fa8 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.73626373626375,37.55790132014533,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,69.78021978021978,26.657949622489184,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -TiRex,69.36813186813188,27.32266216368823,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.93406593406594,26.60685234340968,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.38461538461539,30.329432122077236,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.01098901098902,25.999880752887982,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.85164835164834,28.26554433861671,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Toto-1.0,58.79120879120878,24.17115830675096,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.23076923076924,6.664281180112875,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoARIMA,33.51648351648351,2.7340402546184417,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoTheta,29.670329670329664,4.200265512517798,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -Naive,27.884615384615387,-29.595393684781012,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,27.609890109890113,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,27.472527472527474,-24.061974944434183,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.75824175824176,-36.91555350097882,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.30769230769232,37.557901536977845,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,68.65384615384616,27.322662354204475,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,68.46153846153847,26.65794953458317,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,67.5,30.36322876478197,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.76923076923077,26.606852502371968,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.61538461538461,25.99988075597758,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +FlowState,61.53846153846153,26.89142712985859,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Sundial-Base,60.57692307692307,28.265544600882,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +Toto-1.0,58.84615384615385,24.207524581618266,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,55.38461538461539,26.59412613673687,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,49.423076923076934,20.65325504182872,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,48.46153846153848,20.63835609604817,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,48.36538461538463,21.82047445619971,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +CatBoost,47.30769230769232,20.174610152005823,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,42.019230769230774,8.430993583997726,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoARIMA,32.019230769230774,3.8316800542679386,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +AutoTheta,28.46153846153846,4.200265666572001,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +Naive,26.82692307692308,-29.595393529303713,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.538461538461544,-24.06197476117884,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,25.0,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +Drift,16.923076923076923,-36.91555319026642,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 7f0c0a50509f00f728c10c6a8a4023cf7fcbec1b..d649742f68ce27bc8cc38aa119f824bd262e3c06 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.6813186813187,45.99295406512989,0.0,3.4626783322727275,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714286,37.01592382634481,0.0,1.3772318233333332,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,75.54945054945054,39.82364919499898,0.0,213.1836282907102,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.27472527472527,35.74711031825937,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.78021978021978,35.346534617319236,0.0,1.1812673024242424,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714288,34.54029719816187,0.0,2.6483478834375003,0.3076923076923077,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.10989010989012,33.6346956535905,0.0,64.5943206675,0.15384615384615385,0.0 -Sundial-Base,54.807692307692314,31.42058530075822,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,40.10989010989011,9.81188536974501,0.0,2087.2821065800895,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoARIMA,38.18681318681318,9.717573374612886,0.0,1914.2135565203125,0.0,15.384615384615385 -AutoETS,23.626373626373624,-24.269495265740982,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,23.214285714285715,0.0,0.0,1.0154424039285712,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,21.7032967032967,-4.896832263246642,0.0,6.5463739134469705,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.972527472527469,-50.97673020090387,0.0,1.012792872857143,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.769230769230769,-57.44553174606462,0.0,1.0261745340625001,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.5,45.99295404026385,0.0,3.4120501715909093,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,78.46153846153847,37.015923795326046,0.0,1.3324642875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,76.34615384615384,39.634990899313024,0.0,308.48925294219475,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.84615384615384,35.74711028493935,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,70.38461538461537,35.346534587472554,0.0,1.1602838375000002,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.38461538461537,35.238708603025636,0.0,3.7859752799626865,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.46153846153847,34.54029716114274,0.0,2.549116965535714,0.3076923076923077,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.34615384615385,33.68160197994784,0.0,64.32606581959577,0.15384615384615385,0.0 +TFT,62.11538461538463,34.858358688960024,7067.210990843215,5.868696277689394,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,55.19230769230769,31.420585268607393,0.0,8.734264116875,0.038461538461538464,0.0 +PatchTST,52.88461538461539,28.17762114987711,7221.856288165601,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,50.86538461538462,28.82551876839535,13498.838423148572,8.687442574285715,0.0,11.538461538461538 +Stat. Ensemble,38.75,11.001763956139254,0.0,2051.548594149911,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +LightGBM,38.46153846153847,13.804281918946282,47.29828941238095,4.303395228143939,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.01923076923076,10.956865003323434,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,7.6923076923076925 +CatBoost,33.84615384615384,13.30060154143199,498.1807509,5.586804820681818,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,22.692307692307693,0.0,0.0,1.042975715,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,21.538461538461537,-4.896832310667398,0.0,6.6345268946875,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,20.769230769230766,-24.269495322854407,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.98076923076923,-50.976730476610335,0.0,1.0805920684374999,0.0,0.0 +Drift,6.153846153846154,-57.44553171159505,0.0,1.081847729375,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv index 8ed6e67c474041c4dcec50fa1623cfe48e17157a..a6da336778c0d6b9ebcb705a9c4198976dcbc71f 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.137,0.066,0.203 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.078,0.038,0.118 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.145,0.072,0.212 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.141,0.078,0.202 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.091,0.047,0.134 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.142,0.073,0.202 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.158,0.092,0.222 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.127,0.069,0.195 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.17,0.105,0.237 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.319,0.239,0.385 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.249,0.404 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.146,0.077,0.225 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.187,0.124,0.248 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.204,0.133,0.276 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.22,0.157,0.289 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.241,0.177,0.312 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.324,0.247,0.39 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.354,0.278,0.422 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.278,0.408 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.521,0.418,0.612 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.554,0.468,0.626 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.494,0.643 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.159,-0.255,-0.07 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.069,-0.171,0.013 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.519,0.327,0.731,0.008,-0.015,0.033 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.558,0.385,0.731,0.004,-0.021,0.032 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.054,-0.16,0.039 +TiRex,FlowState,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.005,-0.022,0.033 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.558,0.365,0.731,0.024,-0.003,0.056 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,-0.012,-0.103,0.066 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.038,0.01,0.068 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.211,0.152,0.27 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.225,0.159,0.292 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.038,0.011,0.068 +TiRex,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.01,-0.1,0.105 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.058,-0.036,0.136 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.077,-0.032,0.158 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.096,0.01,0.19 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.12,0.039,0.216 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.216,0.159,0.275 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.251,0.191,0.308 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.194,0.299 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.445,0.339,0.543 -TiRex,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.483,0.403,0.556 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.431,0.578 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.084,-0.133,-0.039 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.065,-0.014,0.146 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.073,-0.003,0.152 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.069,0.002,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.069,-0.011,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.087,0.008,0.169 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.054,-0.036,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.1,0.022,0.181 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.074,0.009,0.144 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.119,0.054,0.187 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.137,0.066,0.207 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.154,0.078,0.242 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.177,0.104,0.259 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.186,0.336 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.299,0.216,0.373 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.169,-0.269,-0.077 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.481,0.269,0.673,-0.009,-0.034,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.078,-0.179,0.003 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.769,-0.004,-0.033,0.024 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.063,-0.171,0.028 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.004,-0.035,0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.016,-0.028,0.057 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.02,-0.113,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.029,-0.006,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.204,0.139,0.271 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.219,0.146,0.291 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.03,-0.006,0.071 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.002,-0.108,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.05,-0.044,0.13 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.069,-0.047,0.159 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.088,-0.003,0.185 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.113,0.028,0.215 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.21,0.15,0.274 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.245,0.182,0.306 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.18,0.299 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.44,0.337,0.539 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.478,0.392,0.555 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.504,0.424,0.577 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.164,-0.254,-0.085 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.615,-0.004,-0.034,0.02 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.074,-0.167,-0.002 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.231,0.596,0.004,-0.025,0.032 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.058,-0.158,0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.001,-0.035,0.028 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.423,0.731,0.02,-0.022,0.064 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.558,0.365,0.731,-0.016,-0.106,0.062 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.034,-0.001,0.072 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.207,0.148,0.271 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.154,0.29 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.006,-0.09,0.099 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.054,-0.045,0.134 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.073,-0.045,0.164 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.092,0.002,0.189 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.117,0.036,0.209 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.213,0.154,0.273 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.248,0.188,0.306 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.19,0.297 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.443,0.333,0.545 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.481,0.396,0.556 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.506,0.425,0.578 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.1,-0.155,-0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.051,-0.04,0.138 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.059,-0.029,0.146 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.055,-0.023,0.137 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.074,-0.012,0.16 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.04,-0.055,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.087,0.004,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.251,0.16,0.326 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.265,0.165,0.351 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.289,0.198,0.368 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.281,0.201,0.352 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.473,0.356,0.578 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.509,0.418,0.588 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.533,0.444,0.61 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.165,-0.253,-0.079 +FlowState,TiRex,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.005,-0.034,0.022 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.074,-0.167,0.011 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.004,-0.027,0.034 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.001,-0.029,0.034 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.307,0.635,0.019,-0.019,0.062 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.017,-0.106,0.06 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.033,-0.002,0.073 +FlowState,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.847,0.005,-0.1,0.104 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.053,-0.045,0.139 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.073,-0.04,0.158 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.092,0.001,0.19 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.654,0.5,0.846,0.116,0.033,0.216 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.212,0.146,0.276 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.247,0.177,0.309 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.188,-0.285,-0.101 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.442,0.269,0.635,-0.024,-0.059,0.003 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.095,-0.203,-0.008 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.016,-0.061,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.577,-0.02,-0.068,0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.08,-0.19,0.012 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.693,-0.019,-0.066,0.018 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.462,0.789,-0.036,-0.136,0.048 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.462,0.788,0.014,-0.011,0.043 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.191,0.118,0.256 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.206,0.128,0.282 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.462,0.788,0.014,-0.01,0.043 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.014,-0.134,0.091 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.035,-0.058,0.115 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.055,-0.05,0.136 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.074,-0.016,0.165 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.099,0.014,0.195 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.197,0.124,0.263 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.233,0.167,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.224,0.168,0.284 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.432,0.314,0.538 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.47,0.388,0.545 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.418,0.568 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.146,-0.242,-0.074 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.25,0.096,0.404,0.012,-0.071,0.093 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.057,-0.166,0.035 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.02,-0.066,0.101 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.442,0.269,0.635,0.016,-0.066,0.096 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.042,-0.156,0.052 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.016,-0.064,0.096 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.365,0.211,0.538,0.035,-0.051,0.119 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.049,-0.032,0.129 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.22,0.136,0.296 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.234,0.147,0.311 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.481,0.308,0.654,0.049,-0.031,0.129 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.022,-0.092,0.137 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.069,-0.036,0.16 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.088,-0.042,0.196 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.106,0.014,0.193 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.131,0.035,0.224 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.225,0.145,0.3 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.26,0.177,0.334 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.251,0.176,0.319 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.452,0.336,0.538 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.489,0.393,0.575 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.421,0.597 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.205,-0.311,-0.117 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.039,-0.073,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.03,-0.077,0.006 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.205,-0.31,-0.117 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.039,-0.073,-0.011 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.111,-0.221,-0.022 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.03,-0.076,0.006 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.035,-0.078,0.001 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.095,-0.212,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.212,0.538,-0.014,-0.045,0.011 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.051,-0.148,0.031 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.034,-0.078,0.002 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.212,0.538,-0.014,-0.045,0.01 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.346,0.692,-0.051,-0.149,0.03 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.18,0.109,0.243 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.195,0.122,0.268 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.159,0.279 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.212,0.153,0.276 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.423,0.311,0.528 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.462,0.385,0.537 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.414,0.559 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.469,-0.625,-0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.267,-0.369,-0.179 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.256,-0.371,-0.162 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.262,-0.372,-0.173 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.335,-0.483,-0.19 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.237,-0.345,-0.134 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.282,-0.419,-0.158 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.219,-0.322,-0.123 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.029,-0.148,0.074 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.021,-0.073,0.101 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.041,-0.081,0.135 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.061,-0.023,0.15 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.086,0.008,0.18 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.186,0.116,0.251 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.159,0.278 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.171,-0.291,-0.083 +TFT,TiRex,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.01,-0.118,0.091 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.08,-0.168,-0.009 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.002,-0.117,0.097 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.006,-0.11,0.082 +TFT,FlowState,0.308,0.153,0.5,-0.005,-0.117,0.091 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.014,-0.1,0.118 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.022,-0.158,0.084 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.028,-0.08,0.129 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.048,-0.02,0.118 +TFT,PatchTST,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.068,-0.003,0.135 +TFT,CatBoost,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.087,-0.039,0.193 +TFT,LightGBM,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.111,0.003,0.212 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.208,0.11,0.288 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.243,0.154,0.321 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.23,-0.329,-0.141 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.061,-0.157,0.035 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.135,-0.23,-0.057 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.052,-0.15,0.043 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.057,-0.154,0.043 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.056,-0.161,0.043 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.036,-0.129,0.055 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.074,-0.191,0.035 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.021,-0.112,0.068 +DeepAR,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.05,-0.133,0.019 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.02,-0.053,0.083 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.041,-0.044,0.124 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.066,-0.013,0.16 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.168,0.084,0.253 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.205,0.122,0.287 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.256,-0.381,-0.154 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.084,-0.187,0.031 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.158,-0.261,-0.071 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.074,-0.189,0.045 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.079,-0.196,0.043 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.078,-0.188,0.038 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.058,-0.158,0.047 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.096,-0.245,0.04 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.043,-0.156,0.075 +PatchTST,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.072,-0.156,0.003 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.021,-0.091,0.051 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.021,-0.104,0.133 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.047,-0.072,0.159 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.151,0.054,0.243 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.189,0.084,0.286 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.282,-0.407,-0.186 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.106,-0.235,-0.01 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.183,-0.319,-0.084 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.097,-0.227,0.003 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.102,-0.233,-0.002 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.101,-0.235,-0.001 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.08,-0.197,0.015 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.119,-0.239,-0.014 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.065,-0.176,0.022 +CatBoost,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.095,-0.239,0.038 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.042,-0.141,0.042 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.021,-0.153,0.094 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.027,-0.007,0.063 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.133,0.007,0.229 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.172,0.062,0.26 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.318,-0.454,-0.215 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.137,-0.276,-0.041 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.215,-0.349,-0.116 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.127,-0.274,-0.029 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.132,-0.264,-0.038 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.346,0.154,0.5,-0.131,-0.276,-0.034 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.11,-0.242,-0.014 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.15,-0.289,-0.036 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.094,-0.22,-0.008 +LightGBM,TFT,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.125,-0.269,-0.003 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.071,-0.19,0.013 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.049,-0.189,0.067 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.028,-0.067,0.007 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.109,-0.03,0.212 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.03,0.24 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.479,-0.638,-0.327 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.276,-0.38,-0.189 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.364,-0.507,-0.229 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.265,-0.377,-0.177 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.271,-0.376,-0.181 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.27,-0.381,-0.171 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.245,-0.356,-0.141 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.291,-0.429,-0.169 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.228,-0.335,-0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.263,-0.404,-0.124 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.202,-0.338,-0.092 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.178,-0.32,-0.057 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.153,-0.297,-0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.122,-0.269,0.029 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.018,-0.016,0.053 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.051,0.016,0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.04,0.001,0.079 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.297,0.19,0.407 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.345,0.25,0.433 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.377,0.289,0.468 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.679,-0.332 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.291,-0.413,-0.189 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.28,-0.41,-0.171 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.409,-0.182 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.36,-0.541,-0.198 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.26,-0.393,-0.147 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.306,-0.451,-0.172 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.242,-0.366,-0.139 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.019,-0.056,0.015 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.033,0.006,0.059 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.022,-0.033,0.071 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.284,0.172,0.395 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.332,0.237,0.426 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.365,0.272,0.453 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.519,0.865,0.044,0.003,0.082 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.548,-0.729,-0.384 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.335,-0.445,-0.237 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.428,-0.596,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.324,-0.441,-0.223 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.33,-0.44,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.407,-0.582,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.329,-0.447,-0.215 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.303,-0.415,-0.201 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.351,-0.501,-0.215 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.285,-0.386,-0.189 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.054,-0.092,-0.016 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.035,-0.063,-0.006 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.322,-0.473,-0.182 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.258,-0.402,-0.139 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.232,-0.4,-0.091 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.207,-0.351,-0.067 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.174,-0.316,-0.031 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.135,0.481,-0.047,-0.09,-0.003 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.012,-0.067,0.043 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.259,0.139,0.381 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.309,0.211,0.405 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.343,0.25,0.435 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.689,-0.384 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.427,-0.24 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.427,-0.22 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.423,-0.234 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.39,-0.542,-0.251 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.288,-0.396,-0.202 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.335,-0.468,-0.214 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.27,-0.38,-0.18 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.042,-0.085,-0.001 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.022,-0.077,0.032 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.012,-0.045,0.062 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.268,0.146,0.396 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.317,0.221,0.409 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.351,0.259,0.44 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.089,-1.579,-0.717 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.802,-1.187,-0.513 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.787,-1.17,-0.507 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.795,-1.196,-0.5 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.899,-1.372,-0.554 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.759,-1.164,-0.458 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.823,-1.166,-0.506 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.734,-1.118,-0.451 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.423,-0.687,-0.234 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.397,-0.654,-0.208 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.35,-0.615,-0.161 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.366,-0.655,-0.17 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.068,-0.078,0.212 -AutoETS,Drift,0.577,0.385,0.732,0.114,-0.03,0.253 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.241,-1.671,-0.879 -Naive,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.933,-1.254,-0.676 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.917,-1.248,-0.645 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.925,-1.252,-0.656 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.037,-1.429,-0.718 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.887,-1.2,-0.635 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.956,-1.353,-0.646 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.86,-1.159,-0.625 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.526,-0.765,-0.333 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.498,-0.742,-0.31 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.448,-0.68,-0.267 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.465,-0.692,-0.283 -Naive,AutoETS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.073,-0.269,0.072 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.049,0.03,0.073 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.358,-1.804,-0.976 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.369,-0.759 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.016,-1.363,-0.736 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.025,-1.372,-0.739 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.143,-1.562,-0.797 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.985,-1.317,-0.718 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.057,-1.483,-0.728 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.957,-1.265,-0.707 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.605,-0.879,-0.406 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.576,-0.828,-0.373 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.523,-0.771,-0.333 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.541,-0.784,-0.35 -Drift,AutoETS,0.423,0.268,0.615,-0.128,-0.339,0.029 -Drift,Naive,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.052,-0.078,-0.031 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv index 9c064e79c5728318522af43c1213899cc0206df9..37804e1c6cb78e4d3654e3c19839bf2e724f2146 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.141,0.072,0.204 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.082,0.044,0.12 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.159,0.083,0.225 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.091,0.05,0.131 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.161,0.096,0.219 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.167,0.099,0.227 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.178,0.111,0.242 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.25 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.183,0.115,0.249 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.171,0.1,0.25 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.212,0.157,0.275 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.297,0.45 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.461 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.232,0.166,0.297 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.243,0.162,0.32 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.299,0.452 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.321,0.466 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.331,0.438 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.368,0.497 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.468,0.65 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.407,0.574 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.573,0.716 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.663,0.591,0.728 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.164,-0.257,-0.078 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.171,0.014 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.481,0.846,0.021,-0.002,0.045 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.059,-0.164,0.029 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.577,0.885,0.023,-0.005,0.052 +TiRex,FlowState,0.635,0.461,0.808,0.03,0.003,0.06 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.043,0.014,0.075 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.049,0.024,0.077 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.788,0.615,0.923,0.048,0.024,0.076 +TiRex,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.035,-0.07,0.132 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.083,0.009,0.153 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.277,0.21,0.351 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.294,0.229,0.365 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.106,0.011,0.184 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.119,0.006,0.204 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.279,0.212,0.354 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.301,0.231,0.376 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.281,0.212,0.353 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.286,0.404 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.497,0.4,0.581 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.321,0.5 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.513,0.666 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.608,0.534,0.676 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.09,-0.136,-0.046 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.064,-0.014,0.146 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.084,0.006,0.167 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.086,0.022,0.16 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.092,0.015,0.166 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.104,0.024,0.189 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.109,0.026,0.194 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.096,0.03,0.168 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.141,0.058,0.225 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.163,0.093,0.233 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.175,0.093,0.252 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.325,0.235,0.412 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.259,0.424 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.261,0.398 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.308,0.462 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.189,-0.291,-0.09 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.519,-0.021,-0.047,0.002 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.091,-0.2,-0.006 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.081,-0.195,0.009 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.002,-0.028,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.04 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.808,0.022,-0.023,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.029,-0.01,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.028,-0.012,0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.014,-0.1,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.063,-0.021,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.191,0.336 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.279,0.207,0.357 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.087,-0.014,0.169 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.1,-0.022,0.197 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.194,0.338 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.286,0.211,0.364 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.265,0.191,0.344 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.269,0.394 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.486,0.387,0.574 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.304,0.497 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.5,0.659 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.521,0.672 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.1,-0.15,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.055,-0.03,0.141 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.075,-0.009,0.163 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.077,0.005,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.096,0.014,0.181 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.102,0.017,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.134,0.048,0.222 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.317,0.222,0.406 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.333,0.243,0.417 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.298,0.457 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.524,0.416,0.616 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.342,0.539 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.529,0.691 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.63,0.547,0.702 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.192,-0.28,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.115,0.423,-0.024,-0.055,0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.094,-0.19,-0.023 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.002,-0.03,0.027 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.084,-0.185,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.007,-0.03,0.039 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.327,0.654,0.02,-0.025,0.07 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.026,-0.012,0.068 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.026,-0.013,0.068 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.012,-0.089,0.108 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.061,-0.024,0.136 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.191,0.333 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.277,0.211,0.349 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.085,-0.018,0.167 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.098,-0.023,0.194 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.191,0.335 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.284,0.214,0.358 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.263,0.189,0.342 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.273,0.388 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.485,0.384,0.576 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.304,0.492 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.5,0.654 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.52,0.667 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.2,-0.294,-0.11 +FlowState,TiRex,0.365,0.192,0.539,-0.031,-0.064,-0.003 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.102,-0.199,-0.015 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.007,-0.041,0.029 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.384,0.712,0.013,-0.029,0.059 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.269,0.596,0.019,-0.019,0.059 +FlowState,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.005,-0.107,0.109 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.054,-0.029,0.13 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.078,-0.024,0.167 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.091,-0.027,0.182 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.256,0.181,0.338 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.279,0.201,0.363 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.258,0.184,0.339 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.324,0.259,0.389 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.216,-0.319,-0.125 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.045,-0.081,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.116,-0.233,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.558,-0.023,-0.071,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.106,-0.221,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.346,0.673,-0.02,-0.075,0.025 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.616,-0.013,-0.062,0.029 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.423,0.75,0.006,-0.016,0.035 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.423,0.75,0.006,-0.016,0.034 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.008,-0.129,0.098 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.042,-0.051,0.124 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.244,0.163,0.328 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.263,0.18,0.345 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.809,0.066,-0.029,0.147 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.08,-0.033,0.167 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.246,0.167,0.331 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.27,0.187,0.356 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.249,0.177,0.322 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.315,0.249,0.385 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.474,0.366,0.571 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.381,0.287,0.48 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.574,0.491,0.651 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.511,0.663 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.224,-0.333,-0.13 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.084,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.029,-0.075,0.01 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.113,-0.232,-0.018 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.027,-0.073,0.012 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.577,-0.007,-0.036,0.016 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.224,-0.332,-0.13 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.385,-0.051,-0.082,-0.024 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.123,-0.241,-0.027 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.029,-0.073,0.011 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.026,-0.072,0.013 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.577,0.404,0.731,-0.019,-0.063,0.019 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.577,-0.006,-0.035,0.016 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.014,-0.138,0.092 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.036,-0.053,0.113 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.239,0.163,0.318 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.258,0.178,0.337 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.311,0.247,0.377 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.471,0.366,0.564 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.377,0.277,0.477 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.49,0.645 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.51,0.658 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.061,-0.039,0.142 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.769,0.074,-0.05,0.169 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.242,0.164,0.324 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.266,0.185,0.346 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.244,0.176,0.316 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.311,0.248,0.377 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.206,-0.334,-0.111 +TFT,TiRex,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.036,-0.151,0.066 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.107,-0.202,-0.031 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.014,-0.138,0.091 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.012,-0.121,0.082 +TFT,FlowState,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.005,-0.122,0.097 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.008,-0.108,0.114 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.014,-0.102,0.121 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.05,-0.077,0.156 +TFT,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.074,-0.014,0.155 +TFT,PatchTST,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.087,0.008,0.164 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.253,0.134,0.349 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.276,0.161,0.373 +TFT,CatBoost,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.255,0.15,0.342 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.321,0.223,0.403 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.269,-0.379,-0.186 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.09,-0.18,-0.009 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.165,-0.29,-0.062 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.067,-0.168,0.021 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.154,-0.285,-0.05 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.065,-0.157,0.023 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.057,-0.15,0.028 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.044,-0.142,0.048 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.037,-0.127,0.05 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.038,-0.127,0.05 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.052,-0.184,0.071 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.211,0.119,0.291 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.23,0.145,0.306 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.025,-0.089,0.128 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.577,0.385,0.731,0.039,-0.107,0.161 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.213,0.123,0.293 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.238,0.15,0.314 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.216,0.13,0.293 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.285,0.209,0.359 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.451,0.336,0.535 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.354,0.246,0.448 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.555,0.46,0.641 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.573,0.482,0.653 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.817,-0.423 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.382,-0.541,-0.266 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.505,-0.237 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.463,-0.683,-0.285 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.499,-0.236 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.323,-0.488,-0.195 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.315,-0.466,-0.195 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.268,-0.41,-0.135 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.302,-0.423,-0.199 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.119,-0.226,-0.011 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.195,-0.304,-0.103 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.095,-0.204,0.014 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.093,-0.201,0.018 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.085,-0.201,0.023 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.191,0.538,-0.071,-0.172,0.029 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.064,-0.165,0.037 +DeepAR,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.08,-0.184,0.014 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.026,-0.147,0.082 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.014,-0.074,0.094 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.193,0.082,0.302 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.218,0.111,0.323 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.195,0.119,0.274 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.267,0.17,0.363 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.321,-0.471,-0.193 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.135,-0.257,-0.006 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.212,-0.338,-0.103 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.111,-0.245,0.021 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.108,-0.241,0.022 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.101,-0.222,0.027 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.086,-0.2,0.032 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.231,0.577,-0.08,-0.204,0.048 +PatchTST,TFT,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.095,-0.196,-0.008 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.423,0.269,0.615,-0.041,-0.192,0.097 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.014,-0.103,0.069 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.181,0.048,0.308 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.207,0.087,0.325 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.184,0.07,0.283 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.256,0.142,0.364 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-0.823,-0.426 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.386,-0.548,-0.268 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.481,-0.701,-0.308 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.511,-0.24 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.503,-0.236 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.344,-0.51,-0.221 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.327,-0.494,-0.2 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.319,-0.48,-0.197 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.338,-0.537,-0.155 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.271,-0.414,-0.14 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.239,-0.433,-0.089 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.221,-0.446,-0.05 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.615,0.423,0.788,0.024,-0.008,0.057 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.769,0.962,0.094,0.068,0.121 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.304,0.194,0.406 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.181,0.078,0.284 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.436,0.348,0.519 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.458,0.375,0.539 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.854,-0.464 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.417,-0.575,-0.297 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.387,-0.556,-0.262 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.5,-0.715,-0.32 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.384,-0.536,-0.268 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.356,-0.526,-0.219 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.347,-0.509,-0.217 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.299,-0.441,-0.169 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.212,0.577,-0.025,-0.061,0.008 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.615,0.423,0.788,0.031,-0.004,0.067 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.003,-0.142,0.14 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.769,0.981,0.091,0.061,0.123 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-0.873,-0.473 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.431,-0.603,-0.3 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.736,-0.349 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.401,-0.573,-0.268 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.398,-0.558,-0.272 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.388,-0.57,-0.252 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.37,-0.554,-0.23 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.362,-0.529,-0.227 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.381,-0.594,-0.192 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.312,-0.459,-0.176 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.279,-0.478,-0.124 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.261,-0.481,-0.096 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.212,0.577,-0.032,-0.071,0.004 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.577,0.865,0.071,0.03,0.11 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.287,0.178,0.394 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.161,0.074,0.253 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.422,0.329,0.507 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.445,0.359,0.526 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.029,-0.187,0.124 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.558,0.885,0.062,0.012,0.107 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.78,-0.496 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.39,-0.545,-0.269 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.66,-0.354 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.361,-0.525,-0.236 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.358,-0.52,-0.234 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.348,-0.513,-0.225 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.331,-0.476,-0.215 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.323,-0.463,-0.214 +CatBoost,TFT,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.342,-0.52,-0.176 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.275,-0.415,-0.15 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.243,-0.378,-0.134 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.225,-0.395,-0.075 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.003,-0.163,0.124 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.029,-0.141,0.157 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.089,-0.041,0.198 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-0.987,-0.581 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.679,-0.401 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.858,-0.445 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.493,-0.65,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.841,-0.425 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.633,-0.376 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.48,-0.638,-0.35 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.46,-0.627,-0.331 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.451,-0.605,-0.329 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.452,-0.604,-0.33 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.472,-0.675,-0.286 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.399,-0.56,-0.264 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.038,0.231,-0.104,-0.138,-0.073 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.135,0.423,-0.077,-0.124,-0.031 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.364,-0.571,-0.205 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.344,-0.571,-0.166 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.019,0.231,-0.101,-0.14,-0.065 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.115,0.442,-0.066,-0.12,-0.012 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.097,-0.246,0.04 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.77,0.232,0.1,0.359 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.096,-0.022,0.215 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.865,0.75,0.962,0.377,0.284,0.463 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.311,0.485 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.313,-1.857,-0.881 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.986,-1.387,-0.666 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.945,-1.345,-0.631 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.103,-1.606,-0.713 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.94,-1.357,-0.624 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.902,-1.33,-0.578 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.889,-1.292,-0.576 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.822,-1.149,-0.507 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.437,-0.684,-0.241 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.402,-0.651,-0.217 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.23,0.577,-0.302,-0.559,-0.111 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.177,-0.448,0.013 -AutoETS,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.189,0.022,0.343 -AutoETS,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.222,0.059,0.368 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.35,-0.685 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.688,-0.999,-0.474 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.652,-0.988,-0.437 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.168,-0.519 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.648,-0.97,-0.437 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.616,-0.923,-0.402 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.605,-0.913,-0.384 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.548,-0.811,-0.327 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.221,-0.397,-0.085 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.191,-0.339,-0.08 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.106,-0.273,0.022 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.15,-0.013,0.309 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.311,0.19,0.426 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.339,0.219,0.449 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.852,-2.524,-1.341 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-1.993,-1.054 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.398,-1.932,-1.0 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.593,-2.233,-1.123 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.392,-1.887,-1.001 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.345,-1.866,-0.964 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.33,-1.815,-0.961 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.247,-1.782,-0.853 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.772,-1.079,-0.535 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.729,-1.027,-0.491 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.135,0.038,0.25,-0.606,-0.862,-0.397 -Naive,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.233,-0.521,-0.023 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.451,-0.743,-0.234 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.04,0.025,0.057 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.971,-2.673,-1.447 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.552,-2.088,-1.148 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.499,-2.051,-1.089 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.702,-2.354,-1.208 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.493,-2.007,-1.085 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.443,-1.963,-1.045 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.427,-1.926,-1.041 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.341,-1.884,-0.929 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.846,-1.169,-0.599 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.802,-1.111,-0.559 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.942,-0.452 -Drift,AutoETS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.285,-0.583,-0.063 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.512,-0.816,-0.28 -Drift,Naive,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.042,-0.06,-0.026 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 9f2f0fe670403de935d91b45332719fa203b54e1..94454275aa166c15bb7543dd35bb711a78317060 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.075,0.214 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.103,0.035,0.178 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.141,0.074,0.204 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.149,0.075,0.214 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.149,0.081,0.219 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.104,0.034,0.174 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.156,0.089,0.221 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.146,0.079,0.202 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.13,0.071,0.194 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.177,0.109,0.245 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.331,0.242,0.409 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.358,0.267,0.438 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.348,0.276,0.418 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.518,0.403,0.613 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.176,0.109,0.244 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.149,0.061,0.236 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.213,0.112,0.302 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.201,0.118,0.276 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.213,0.142,0.288 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.218,0.15,0.293 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.318,0.232,0.398 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.282,0.449 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.497,0.365,0.605 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.544,0.439,0.636 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.175,-0.273,-0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.442,0.25,0.635,-0.009,-0.043,0.023 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.674,0.001,-0.039,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.053,-0.161,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.022,-0.12,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.033,-0.012,0.081 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.615,0.962,0.214,0.126,0.294 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.246,0.159,0.324 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.234,0.168,0.307 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.434,0.317,0.538 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.184,0.338 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.409,0.27,0.532 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.464,0.352,0.562 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.115,-0.216,-0.036 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.042,-0.07,0.138 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.047,0.137 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.035,0.132 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.056,0.163 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.047,-0.06,0.132 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.029,-0.086,0.132 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.081,-0.022,0.177 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.615,0.462,0.808,0.051,-0.037,0.133 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.122,0.043,0.201 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.109,0.04,0.174 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.847,0.123,0.035,0.22 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.128,0.017,0.234 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.24,0.135,0.332 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.304,0.213,0.381 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.164,-0.256,-0.08 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.558,0.365,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.041 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.044,-0.161,0.065 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.558,0.365,0.75,0.009,-0.023,0.041 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.01,-0.028,0.06 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.043,-0.165,0.065 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.442,0.269,0.615,0.018,-0.013,0.051 +TiRex,FlowState,0.519,0.346,0.692,0.006,-0.029,0.041 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.462,0.808,-0.013,-0.12,0.076 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.042,0.009,0.077 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.221,0.134,0.303 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.253,0.169,0.337 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.179,0.313 -TiRex,Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.439,0.321,0.545 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.712,0.538,0.885,0.041,0.009,0.076 +TiRex,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.01,-0.106,0.113 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.084,-0.054,0.194 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.07,-0.044,0.169 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.084,-0.01,0.187 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.09,-0.003,0.186 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.206,0.125,0.286 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.273,0.184,0.352 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.414,0.268,0.54 -TiRex,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.469,0.354,0.568 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.175,-0.273,-0.081 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.159,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.442,0.25,0.635,-0.009,-0.043,0.023 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.674,0.001,-0.039,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.009,-0.046,0.062 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.003,-0.048,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.788,-0.022,-0.12,0.067 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.032,-0.012,0.081 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.001,-0.117,0.102 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.076,-0.062,0.182 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.062,-0.049,0.157 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.076,-0.014,0.181 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.081,-0.011,0.182 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.808,0.615,0.962,0.199,0.119,0.279 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.267,0.184,0.338 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.175,-0.28,-0.089 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.326,0.673,-0.001,-0.044,0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.054,-0.152,0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.01,-0.064,0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.326,0.673,-0.001,-0.044,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.053,-0.157,0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.577,0.404,0.731,0.008,-0.066,0.068 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.327,0.673,-0.004,-0.072,0.041 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.519,0.327,0.692,-0.023,-0.128,0.067 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.032,-0.022,0.081 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.214,0.122,0.3 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.245,0.16,0.331 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.234,0.166,0.312 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.434,0.311,0.538 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.032,-0.022,0.08 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.692,0.5,0.885,0.0,-0.101,0.094 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.075,-0.054,0.176 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.061,-0.05,0.151 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.075,-0.017,0.18 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.081,-0.023,0.185 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.198,0.108,0.286 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.266,0.183,0.339 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.408,0.263,0.533 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.464,0.347,0.563 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.116,-0.211,-0.035 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.05,-0.05,0.139 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.041,-0.07,0.142 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.051,-0.037,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.059,-0.054,0.165 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.029,-0.091,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.081,-0.023,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.254,0.151,0.343 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.284,0.181,0.375 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.273,0.178,0.359 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.462,0.33,0.57 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.303,0.205,0.384 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.438,0.285,0.563 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.491,0.367,0.59 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.185,-0.284,-0.098 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.063,-0.195,0.053 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.558,0.385,0.731,-0.018,-0.054,0.013 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.009,-0.067,0.044 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.269,0.596,-0.008,-0.073,0.062 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.062,-0.197,0.052 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.012,-0.065,0.03 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.596,0.423,0.769,-0.032,-0.143,0.065 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.024,-0.008,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.207,0.115,0.288 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.239,0.149,0.328 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.228,0.162,0.3 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.429,0.314,0.532 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.024,-0.008,0.056 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,-0.008,-0.137,0.101 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.067,-0.064,0.182 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.053,-0.06,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.068,-0.023,0.17 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.073,-0.022,0.166 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.192,0.1,0.274 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.26,0.164,0.341 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.404,0.253,0.532 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.46,0.35,0.554 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.171,-0.253,-0.086 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.05,-0.152,0.056 +FlowState,TiRex,0.481,0.308,0.654,-0.006,-0.043,0.028 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.003,-0.04,0.046 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.327,0.673,0.004,-0.043,0.067 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.012,-0.031,0.061 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.558,0.385,0.75,-0.019,-0.118,0.069 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.327,0.692,0.035,-0.006,0.084 +FlowState,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.004,-0.109,0.108 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.079,-0.054,0.187 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.065,-0.053,0.17 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.615,0.462,0.808,0.079,-0.013,0.187 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.084,-0.012,0.181 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.202,0.112,0.282 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.269,0.178,0.347 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.149,-0.241,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.022,-0.072,0.107 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.03,-0.153,0.08 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.365,0.192,0.538,0.013,-0.083,0.107 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.404,0.212,0.577,0.022,-0.072,0.107 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.481,0.308,0.673,0.023,-0.072,0.113 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.03,-0.156,0.083 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.404,0.231,0.577,0.031,-0.069,0.125 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.442,0.25,0.615,0.019,-0.074,0.106 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.519,0.327,0.712,0.054,-0.039,0.141 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.231,0.132,0.318 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.262,0.168,0.346 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.251,0.169,0.332 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.446,0.316,0.562 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.519,0.327,0.712,0.054,-0.039,0.14 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.023,-0.095,0.144 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.577,0.346,0.769,0.096,-0.054,0.224 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.082,-0.036,0.188 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.096,-0.017,0.204 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.101,0.012,0.187 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.217,0.12,0.307 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.283,0.183,0.364 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.422,0.278,0.534 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.476,0.35,0.586 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.214,-0.324,-0.122 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.034,-0.089,0.012 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.043,-0.084,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.033,-0.088,0.021 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.088,-0.216,0.022 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.025,-0.061,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.481,0.288,0.673,-0.057,-0.164,0.038 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.214,-0.323,-0.123 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.088,-0.215,0.022 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.288,0.115,0.462,-0.043,-0.083,-0.009 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.033,-0.088,0.012 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.033,-0.087,0.021 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.024,-0.06,0.008 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.308,0.673,-0.037,-0.092,0.006 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.481,0.288,0.673,-0.057,-0.163,0.038 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.188,0.094,0.273 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.22,0.129,0.309 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.208,0.137,0.284 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.415,0.296,0.517 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.033,-0.162,0.081 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.045,-0.102,0.164 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.031,-0.093,0.134 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.045,-0.045,0.146 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.051,-0.041,0.142 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.172,0.083,0.258 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.654,0.962,0.242,0.151,0.321 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.389,0.242,0.513 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.446,0.337,0.542 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.495,-0.692,-0.319 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.385,-0.273,-0.416,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.284,-0.434,-0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.272,-0.429,-0.139 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.34,-0.522,-0.178 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.261,-0.405,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.301,-0.467,-0.152 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.231,-0.376,-0.104 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.176,-0.309,-0.065 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.538,-0.054,-0.153,0.036 +TFT,TiRex,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.01,-0.127,0.096 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.001,-0.113,0.105 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.115,0.5,-0.0,-0.104,0.092 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,0.008,-0.113,0.12 +TFT,FlowState,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.004,-0.121,0.098 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.023,-0.169,0.087 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.031,-0.088,0.139 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.075,-0.01,0.157 +TFT,DeepAR,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.061,-0.017,0.142 +TFT,LightGBM,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.075,-0.048,0.188 +TFT,CatBoost,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.08,-0.062,0.204 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.198,0.093,0.282 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.266,0.174,0.342 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.271,-0.432,-0.126 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.139,-0.252,-0.045 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.092,-0.241,0.051 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.082,-0.222,0.059 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.081,-0.214,0.051 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.072,-0.223,0.06 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.085,-0.231,0.051 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.423,0.231,0.654,-0.106,-0.288,0.051 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.047,-0.196,0.093 +PatchTST,TFT,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.081,-0.187,0.01 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.015,-0.084,0.06 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.0,-0.137,0.131 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.006,-0.154,0.155 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.133,0.012,0.248 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.576,0.885,0.207,0.106,0.306 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.252,-0.381,-0.134 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.123,-0.21,-0.042 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.076,-0.203,0.042 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.066,-0.187,0.047 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.065,-0.177,0.047 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.056,-0.179,0.057 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.069,-0.205,0.051 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.09,-0.232,0.035 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.031,-0.155,0.085 +DeepAR,TFT,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.065,-0.166,0.017 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.015,-0.063,0.078 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.015,-0.082,0.12 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.021,-0.093,0.134 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.596,0.423,0.769,0.146,0.036,0.25 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.218,0.128,0.307 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.271,-0.405,-0.166 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.308,0.153,0.462,-0.14,-0.282,-0.037 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.092,-0.23,0.01 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.082,-0.221,0.014 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.081,-0.219,0.017 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.072,-0.205,0.023 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.385,0.192,0.538,-0.086,-0.23,0.013 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.106,-0.256,0.016 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.047,-0.171,0.043 +LightGBM,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.081,-0.232,0.046 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.0,-0.15,0.12 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.015,-0.137,0.075 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.462,0.269,0.654,0.006,-0.055,0.061 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.133,-0.007,0.243 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.615,0.923,0.206,0.082,0.307 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.278,-0.415,-0.177 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.146,-0.306,-0.017 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.098,-0.228,0.003 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.088,-0.222,0.01 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.088,-0.228,0.022 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.079,-0.199,0.022 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.092,-0.221,0.012 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.113,-0.23,-0.012 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.053,-0.166,0.039 +CatBoost,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.087,-0.256,0.059 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.006,-0.184,0.134 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.021,-0.155,0.085 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.538,0.346,0.731,-0.006,-0.065,0.052 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.128,-0.008,0.238 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.202,0.07,0.303 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.466,-0.661,-0.303 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.315,-0.496,-0.157 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.26,-0.4,-0.143 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.385,-0.249,-0.387,-0.135 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.248,-0.4,-0.121 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.237,-0.377,-0.111 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.253,-0.393,-0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.276,-0.443,-0.136 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.208,-0.348,-0.091 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.247,-0.393,-0.103 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.154,-0.33,-0.012 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.404,0.231,0.577,-0.171,-0.333,-0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.154,-0.322,0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.147,-0.313,0.008 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.654,0.481,0.827,0.04,0.008,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.026,-0.029,0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.28,0.162,0.399 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.067,0.029,0.103 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.248,0.12,0.381 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.318,0.206,0.435 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.558,-0.781,-0.363 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.326,-0.48,-0.19 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.338,-0.509,-0.203 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.325,-0.496,-0.19 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.396,-0.601,-0.222 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.314,-0.489,-0.175 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.356,-0.529,-0.202 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.283,-0.447,-0.148 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.346,0.173,0.519,-0.042,-0.082,-0.008 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.015,-0.079,0.04 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.249,0.12,0.379 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.692,0.519,0.846,0.027,-0.012,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.216,0.079,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.29,0.167,0.413 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.534,-0.718,-0.381 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.306,-0.443,-0.202 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.455,-0.218 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.305,-0.452,-0.2 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.375,-0.561,-0.216 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.295,-0.428,-0.193 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.335,-0.496,-0.204 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.263,-0.397,-0.158 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.026,-0.081,0.029 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.015,-0.042,0.073 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.261,0.138,0.381 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.042,-0.02,0.097 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.228,0.087,0.37 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.3,0.184,0.415 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-1.075,-1.586,-0.674 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.767,-1.166,-0.465 -Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.783,-1.198,-0.474 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.766,-1.162,-0.452 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.86,-1.326,-0.492 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.751,-1.137,-0.458 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.807,-1.283,-0.462 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.709,-1.072,-0.42 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.388,-0.664,-0.193 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.332,-0.611,-0.137 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.353,-0.616,-0.16 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.404,0.231,0.558,-0.296,-0.551,-0.107 -Naive,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.045,-0.271,0.122 -Naive,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.053,0.032,0.078 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.731,0.558,0.885,0.084,0.037,0.13 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.601,-0.814,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.511,-0.225 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.436,-0.616,-0.27 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.376,-0.544,-0.225 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.511,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.363,-0.513,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.435,-0.622,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.351,-0.517,-0.196 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.368,-0.532,-0.217 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.394,-0.572,-0.225 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.346,-0.319,-0.473,-0.178 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.071,-0.115,-0.03 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.308,0.154,0.481,-0.028,-0.066,0.012 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.044,-0.107,0.019 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.596,0.442,0.769,0.228,0.097,0.355 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.362,-0.521,-0.21 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.269,0.115,0.424,-0.26,-0.44,-0.119 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.279,-0.443,-0.147 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.192,0.077,0.385,-0.26,-0.442,-0.09 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.253,-0.434,-0.075 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.269,0.115,0.442,-0.092,-0.149,-0.038 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.194,0.048,0.336 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.27,0.146,0.393 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.987,-1.529,-0.575 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.692,-1.136,-0.369 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.707,-1.173,-0.365 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.69,-1.143,-0.356 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.781,-1.288,-0.399 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.677,-1.137,-0.34 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.729,-1.145,-0.385 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.636,-1.055,-0.318 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.329,-0.614,-0.136 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.275,-0.538,-0.086 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.295,-0.587,-0.095 -AutoETS,Naive,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.043,-0.139,0.213 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.241,-0.505,-0.051 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.094,-0.078,0.255 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-1.193,-1.748,-0.782 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.867,-1.283,-0.544 -Drift,TiRex,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.884,-1.313,-0.548 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.866,-1.29,-0.531 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.965,-1.439,-0.579 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.85,-1.241,-0.539 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.909,-1.417,-0.539 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.806,-1.183,-0.509 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.467,-0.771,-0.259 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.408,-0.704,-0.2 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.429,-0.71,-0.225 -Drift,Naive,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.056,-0.085,-0.033 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.369,-0.648,-0.171 -Drift,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.104,-0.342,0.073 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv index 0039cf04a0e4d8c4f7fd473653f4d679009ab650..64566c66d07227c09038dcecb1360ceab58b4339 100644 --- a/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_energy/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.143,0.076,0.204 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.103,0.043,0.165 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.105,0.046,0.172 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.159,0.086,0.224 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.165,0.099,0.23 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.166,0.098,0.224 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.243 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.186,0.119,0.253 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.186,0.119,0.252 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.171,0.091,0.255 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.212,0.16,0.273 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.322,0.47 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.319,0.474 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.565,0.464,0.652 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.248,0.158,0.33 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.241,0.168,0.309 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.318,0.434 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.316,0.461 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.393,0.313,0.464 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.384,0.522 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.417,0.553 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.642,0.566,0.711 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.583,0.723 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.166,-0.256,-0.083 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.047,-0.16,0.056 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.043,-0.153,0.057 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.02,-0.015,0.053 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.712,0.538,0.865,0.026,-0.018,0.077 +TiRex,FlowState,0.596,0.404,0.769,0.027,-0.013,0.066 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.577,0.904,0.038,0.007,0.071 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.827,0.673,0.962,0.051,0.023,0.082 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.788,0.635,0.942,0.05,0.022,0.081 +TiRex,TFT,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.033,-0.083,0.135 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.635,0.923,0.082,-0.005,0.162 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.302,0.222,0.379 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.302,0.222,0.38 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.493,0.379,0.594 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.123,-0.007,0.223 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.115,0.006,0.208 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.269,0.192,0.351 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.292,0.22,0.369 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.293,0.215,0.367 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.299,0.439 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.33,0.472 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.496,0.662 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.519,0.674 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.114,-0.198,-0.045 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.045,-0.06,0.138 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.118,-0.207,-0.048 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.042,-0.06,0.132 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.063,-0.03,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.069,-0.012,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.081,-0.022,0.18 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.093,-0.007,0.189 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.123,0.016,0.219 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.333,0.245,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.333,0.24,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.612 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.321,0.473 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.336,0.513 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.601,0.507,0.685 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.618,0.526,0.695 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.538,0.346,0.731,0.061,-0.032,0.147 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.066,-0.013,0.144 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.068,-0.037,0.15 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.078,-0.027,0.177 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.09,-0.012,0.186 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.615,0.462,0.808,0.073,-0.017,0.157 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.12,0.014,0.215 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.16,0.077,0.241 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.152,0.078,0.221 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.3,0.226,0.38 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.322,0.232,0.407 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.322,0.231,0.409 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.322,0.469 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.19,-0.289,-0.094 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.02,-0.056,0.015 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.068,-0.177,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.462,0.269,0.654,-0.064,-0.172,0.031 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.006,-0.031,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.008,-0.042,0.052 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.615,0.442,0.788,0.018,-0.038,0.072 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.032,-0.016,0.081 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.654,0.481,0.808,0.031,-0.017,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.014,-0.101,0.121 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.063,-0.029,0.147 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.288,0.209,0.366 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.212,0.365 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.483,0.376,0.581 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.105,-0.029,0.21 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.097,-0.015,0.186 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.255,0.176,0.34 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.278,0.204,0.356 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.206,0.354 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.288,0.423 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.31,0.47 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.483,0.657 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.507,0.67 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.197,-0.299,-0.11 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.288,0.135,0.462,-0.027,-0.084,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.074,-0.174,0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.071,-0.168,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.006,-0.048,0.03 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.326,0.674,0.002,-0.072,0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.308,0.635,0.012,-0.062,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.577,0.404,0.75,0.026,-0.03,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.442,0.769,0.025,-0.03,0.078 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.007,-0.099,0.108 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.596,0.904,0.057,-0.039,0.142 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.283,0.207,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.284,0.204,0.362 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.48,0.368,0.58 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.1,-0.031,0.201 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.092,-0.024,0.18 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.25,0.171,0.336 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.274,0.199,0.348 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.274,0.199,0.354 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.287,0.417 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.307,0.466 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.485,0.651 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.506,0.663 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.199,-0.288,-0.109 +FlowState,TiRex,0.404,0.231,0.596,-0.028,-0.071,0.013 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.073,-0.177,0.036 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.008,-0.055,0.04 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.326,0.674,-0.002,-0.052,0.067 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.011,-0.039,0.061 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,0.023,-0.024,0.072 +FlowState,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.006,-0.108,0.111 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.673,0.5,0.846,0.056,-0.036,0.14 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.098,-0.033,0.201 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.654,0.5,0.808,0.09,-0.021,0.192 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.846,0.731,0.962,0.249,0.172,0.34 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.272,0.194,0.35 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.273,0.193,0.353 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.352,0.275,0.427 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.212,-0.32,-0.122 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.096,0.423,-0.039,-0.077,-0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.088,-0.219,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.084,-0.216,0.026 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.212,0.558,-0.019,-0.077,0.037 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.538,0.365,0.692,-0.012,-0.082,0.058 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.011,-0.066,0.037 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.014,-0.016,0.046 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.538,0.365,0.712,0.013,-0.016,0.045 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.615,0.423,0.808,-0.005,-0.135,0.104 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.788,0.654,0.923,0.045,-0.054,0.134 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.274,0.181,0.36 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.275,0.183,0.363 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.473,0.354,0.58 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.089,-0.033,0.194 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.08,-0.029,0.172 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.241,0.166,0.326 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.885,0.768,1.0,0.264,0.177,0.349 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.265,0.176,0.35 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.345,0.266,0.421 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.376,0.293,0.457 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.566,0.482,0.648 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.502,0.661 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.229,-0.339,-0.136 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.173,0.038,0.327,-0.054,-0.089,-0.024 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.103,-0.233,0.007 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.033,-0.088,0.016 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.25,0.596,-0.026,-0.086,0.029 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.014,-0.048,0.016 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.228,-0.337,-0.135 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.212,0.058,0.365,-0.053,-0.088,-0.023 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.099,-0.228,0.012 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.346,0.192,0.519,-0.032,-0.087,0.017 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.385,0.231,0.558,-0.026,-0.085,0.029 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.538,0.365,0.712,-0.024,-0.078,0.023 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.462,0.288,0.635,-0.013,-0.047,0.016 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.712,0.557,0.865,0.032,-0.064,0.118 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.264,0.176,0.347 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.265,0.173,0.351 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.466,0.343,0.573 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.336,0.258,0.412 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.367,0.282,0.45 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.56,0.475,0.64 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.578,0.497,0.654 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.577,0.385,0.769,-0.018,-0.153,0.095 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.712,0.557,0.865,0.033,-0.063,0.118 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.077,-0.07,0.195 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.068,-0.058,0.164 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.231,0.157,0.313 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.255,0.167,0.337 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.255,0.168,0.34 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.337,0.259,0.412 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.206,-0.343,-0.101 +TFT,TiRex,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.034,-0.156,0.076 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.385,0.192,0.538,-0.079,-0.186,0.017 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.014,-0.138,0.092 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.008,-0.122,0.09 +TFT,FlowState,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.006,-0.125,0.097 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,0.005,-0.116,0.119 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.423,0.231,0.615,0.018,-0.106,0.133 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.05,-0.088,0.161 +TFT,PatchTST,0.615,0.423,0.808,0.093,0.014,0.17 +TFT,DeepAR,0.654,0.462,0.846,0.085,-0.006,0.172 +TFT,LightGBM,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.244,0.14,0.339 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.268,0.164,0.356 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.268,0.156,0.363 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.349,0.256,0.43 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.27,-0.375,-0.19 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.212,0.077,0.365,-0.089,-0.193,0.005 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.14,-0.281,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.136,-0.274,-0.015 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.067,-0.172,0.029 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.096,0.404,-0.061,-0.166,0.037 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.327,0.154,0.5,-0.059,-0.163,0.035 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.212,0.077,0.346,-0.048,-0.154,0.052 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.288,0.135,0.443,-0.033,-0.133,0.06 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.288,0.135,0.443,-0.034,-0.134,0.059 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.053,-0.193,0.081 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.24,0.14,0.328 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.24,0.142,0.324 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.448,0.328,0.539 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.462,0.269,0.615,0.045,-0.112,0.174 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.036,-0.09,0.144 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.808,0.654,0.924,0.204,0.101,0.303 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.769,0.577,0.923,0.229,0.136,0.314 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.808,0.654,0.962,0.23,0.14,0.313 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.731,1.0,0.314,0.227,0.393 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.346,0.251,0.424 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.546,0.446,0.638 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.467,0.653 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.67,-0.887,-0.475 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.432,-0.61,-0.286 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.499,-0.711,-0.324 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.404,-0.576,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.395,-0.558,-0.261 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.378,-0.563,-0.221 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.359,-0.531,-0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.315,-0.489,-0.162 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.33,-0.493,-0.187 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.14,-0.287,0.007 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.19,-0.317,-0.084 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.118,-0.267,0.028 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.111,-0.252,0.03 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.109,-0.251,0.032 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.097,-0.241,0.032 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.083,-0.243,0.066 +PatchTST,TFT,0.385,0.192,0.577,-0.103,-0.205,-0.014 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.538,0.385,0.731,-0.047,-0.211,0.101 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.009,-0.094,0.076 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.692,0.538,0.846,0.167,0.045,0.276 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.193,0.071,0.314 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.692,0.538,0.885,0.193,0.062,0.32 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.282,0.177,0.386 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.318,-0.448,-0.201 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.13,-0.262,-0.006 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.179,-0.284,-0.085 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.108,-0.228,0.015 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.101,-0.219,0.023 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.346,0.192,0.5,-0.099,-0.237,0.021 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.087,-0.208,0.028 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.073,-0.196,0.054 +DeepAR,TFT,0.346,0.154,0.538,-0.093,-0.208,0.006 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.038,-0.168,0.082 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.009,-0.082,0.086 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.731,0.577,0.885,0.174,0.092,0.267 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.635,0.461,0.827,0.2,0.09,0.31 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.596,0.404,0.769,0.201,0.084,0.315 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.827,0.692,0.942,0.288,0.189,0.384 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.767,-0.466 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.369,-0.541,-0.237 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.428,-0.612,-0.293 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.342,-0.516,-0.213 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.333,-0.505,-0.207 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.154,0.038,0.269,-0.331,-0.516,-0.208 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.317,-0.484,-0.199 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.3,-0.456,-0.186 +LightGBM,TFT,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.323,-0.514,-0.162 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.076,0.346,-0.257,-0.435,-0.112 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.308,0.154,0.462,-0.2,-0.381,-0.047 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.269,0.115,0.423,-0.211,-0.363,-0.101 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.031,-0.135,0.165 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.032,-0.137,0.173 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.654,0.462,0.808,0.138,-0.001,0.25 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.648,-0.856,-0.462 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.413,-0.584,-0.282 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.474,-0.686,-0.302 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.385,-0.552,-0.256 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.377,-0.535,-0.249 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.374,-0.538,-0.241 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.115,0.0,0.232,-0.36,-0.537,-0.214 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.342,-0.507,-0.201 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.366,-0.553,-0.197 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.231,0.077,0.423,-0.298,-0.457,-0.157 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.239,-0.458,-0.077 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.365,0.173,0.539,-0.25,-0.45,-0.099 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.033,-0.197,0.119 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.001,-0.03,0.03 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.808,0.654,0.923,0.274,0.156,0.394 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.673,0.923,0.098,0.062,0.134 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.14,0.054,0.228 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.403,0.302,0.5 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.427,0.332,0.521 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.672,-0.901,-0.469 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.433,-0.614,-0.285 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.5,-0.719,-0.316 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.574,-0.269 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.396,-0.568,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.379,-0.569,-0.224 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.36,-0.54,-0.209 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.316,-0.48,-0.166 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.001,-0.031,0.029 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.327,0.692,0.001,-0.03,0.029 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.808,0.654,0.942,0.11,0.065,0.15 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.867,-0.455 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.414,-0.58,-0.274 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.475,-0.693,-0.301 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.386,-0.548,-0.259 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.377,-0.548,-0.248 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.375,-0.547,-0.239 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.36,-0.538,-0.214 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.343,-0.514,-0.202 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.367,-0.569,-0.185 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.192,0.038,0.346,-0.298,-0.456,-0.163 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.308,0.115,0.462,-0.24,-0.47,-0.066 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.404,0.231,0.596,-0.251,-0.46,-0.092 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.033,-0.209,0.12 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.308,0.673,-0.001,-0.03,0.029 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.731,0.538,0.885,0.273,0.152,0.393 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.846,0.712,0.962,0.097,0.065,0.133 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.139,0.048,0.225 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.885,0.769,1.0,0.402,0.299,0.502 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.923,0.808,1.0,0.427,0.331,0.523 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.301,-1.876,-0.865 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.973,-1.463,-0.611 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.065,-1.575,-0.661 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.934,-1.389,-0.604 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.922,-1.378,-0.581 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.898,-1.383,-0.547 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.873,-1.342,-0.522 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.812,-1.168,-0.489 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.346,-0.378,-0.651,-0.185 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.269,0.115,0.462,-0.376,-0.647,-0.18 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.243,-0.498,-0.059 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.423,0.231,0.615,-0.185,-0.496,0.024 -AutoETS,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.177,-0.005,0.343 -AutoETS,Drift,0.769,0.614,0.923,0.211,0.031,0.372 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.885,0.769,0.981,0.11,0.072,0.147 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.852,-1.093,-0.622 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.782,-0.427 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.662,-0.896,-0.473 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.882,-0.476 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.556,-0.734,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.547,-0.716,-0.403 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.544,-0.745,-0.38 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.528,-0.727,-0.362 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.507,-0.7,-0.348 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.508,-0.7,-0.35 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.535,-0.756,-0.344 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.115,0.0,0.269,-0.458,-0.646,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.077,0.327,-0.109,-0.155,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.154,0.038,0.288,-0.108,-0.153,-0.069 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.195,0.055,0.332 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.392,-0.628,-0.215 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.173,0.058,0.308,-0.405,-0.624,-0.234 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.346,0.192,0.538,-0.16,-0.333,0.001 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.192,0.058,0.346,-0.124,-0.176,-0.069 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.019,0.231,-0.123,-0.173,-0.077 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.5,0.308,0.692,0.047,-0.058,0.151 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.596,0.885,0.338,0.225,0.448 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.846,0.692,0.962,0.365,0.257,0.469 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.942,-1.236,-0.714 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-0.895,-0.491 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.051,-0.506 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.633,-0.887,-0.449 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.874,-0.442 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.602,-0.84,-0.415 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.581,-0.819,-0.392 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.53,-0.735,-0.335 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.163,-0.296,-0.057 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.162,-0.29,-0.05 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.577,0.385,0.769,0.156,-0.025,0.332 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.308,0.692,-0.049,-0.178,0.054 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.692,0.5,0.846,0.305,0.169,0.434 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.769,0.615,0.923,0.334,0.2,0.458 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.796,-2.464,-1.302 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.397,-1.954,-0.985 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.509,-2.175,-1.028 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.35,-1.917,-0.935 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.335,-1.866,-0.941 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.306,-1.84,-0.93 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.275,-1.776,-0.904 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.201,-1.761,-0.804 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.674,-1.0,-0.432 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.115,0.0,0.231,-0.672,-1.007,-0.426 -Naive,AutoETS,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.215,-0.523,0.005 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.115,0.404,-0.51,-0.811,-0.291 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.308,0.154,0.5,-0.439,-0.768,-0.203 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.962,0.885,1.0,0.041,0.026,0.058 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.915,-2.609,-1.396 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.5,-2.068,-1.08 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.616,-2.276,-1.108 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-2.03,-1.028 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.435,-1.97,-1.024 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-1.953,-1.008 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.038,0.0,0.115,-1.372,-1.889,-0.986 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.296,-1.882,-0.876 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.746,-1.089,-0.497 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.077,0.0,0.192,-0.744,-1.097,-0.495 -Drift,AutoETS,0.231,0.077,0.386,-0.267,-0.592,-0.032 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.154,0.038,0.308,-0.574,-0.885,-0.347 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.231,0.077,0.385,-0.501,-0.843,-0.25 -Drift,Naive,0.038,0.0,0.115,-0.043,-0.062,-0.027 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv index a93c6576cdf160344907d24c6b4ede5e6ac59b52..6c26fef41b0ef763d25a46b12ac6fa4b01f2f913 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,74.99999999999999,31.785976470244737,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.99999999999999,32.87474900010455,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.0,32.475887751126365,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.57142857142857,30.065972963196263,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.35714285714286,33.79488514595498,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,60.71428571428571,31.61987589396246,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,56.785714285714285,30.041136141125392,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,50.71428571428572,29.22957519821191,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,49.28571428571429,28.071655389223615,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,22.707876070444478,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.42857142857142,5.881738788340107,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.71428571428571,15.209167110886634,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.78571428571429,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Naive,21.071428571428573,0.30982946320681215,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 -Drift,20.0,7.491051478030797,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.5,32.87474894024488,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,73.0,31.78597649489514,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,70.5,32.47588770643868,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.0,34.55373879766452,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,68.5,27.93729353213241,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.75000000000001,33.79488506711863,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +LightGBM,63.0,33.38915880315173,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,61.999999999999986,33.16623383500657,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.750000000000014,30.041136052707273,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.00000000000001,31.700573837170467,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,53.0,29.22979017092695,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,52.000000000000014,22.70787609837541,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,52.0,28.071655328734924,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,39.0,5.881738752268506,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +TFT,34.0,8.056299346355855,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,31.999999999999996,15.20916710141943,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,27.999999999999993,12.927869318522445,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,26.5,8.848833829469338,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,22.249999999999996,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.749999999999996,0.30982947391161586,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Drift,20.5,7.491051482058886,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv index ec873e351edf1b2edd74be8f66ff09c3e8148243..0171dd510c998db47604b192caceb4b2c5ad5210 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,81.42857142857143,38.088755291215016,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.42857142857142,38.03594076932182,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,70.71428571428572,36.908809578202614,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,69.64285714285714,38.69101656633476,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,37.84147796075432,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.71428571428571,35.21500006276798,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.07142857142858,36.49963485983284,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,52.85714285714287,31.12404362920507,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,49.285714285714285,31.66665055693333,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.57142857142858,23.555776015856367,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,37.857142857142854,8.155432249884543,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.42857142857143,17.733419423817608,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.071428571428573,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.5,-7.297793633399574,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.0,0.4041900778196994,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,83.0,38.08875531260849,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,79.5,38.03594071146331,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,75.75,38.69101646514035,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,72.5,36.908809542631595,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,72.5,37.79500412291329,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,69.25000000000001,36.49963478571547,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,67.5,37.78506660666954,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,63.000000000000014,32.77403706037661,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,56.50000000000001,31.12404358258436,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,52.500000000000014,31.666899122864876,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,46.00000000000001,24.996902028028057,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,43.0,24.745890887412404,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.99999999999999,23.555776042271713,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,40.0,8.15543220497067,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +TFT,38.49999999999999,13.487049535026774,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.99999999999999,17.70708962424181,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,32.0,17.733419411019135,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,27.0,13.730380882991922,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,21.749999999999996,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Naive,17.75,-7.297793646802875,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Drift,17.0,0.404190086867684,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index c28338a0800f6191976a8d121d53f0651c067c05..ca5de9613f8cc195beaa116cbea2918d0340f57a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-2.5,72.14285714285714,30.23643324970241,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,67.14285714285715,29.759653338440085,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,67.14285714285714,29.12048426647892,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.07142857142858,31.59592125809332,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.2857142857143,28.503622669499972,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,57.85714285714286,29.695571630620133,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.85714285714286,22.16773042840192,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,57.50000000000001,25.88326333574207,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,57.14285714285714,29.452418664318316,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,16.462367071514482,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.0,15.909991992310612,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.0,14.265515884511814,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Naive,24.642857142857146,0.09410339815076885,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,23.92857142857143,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Drift,22.142857142857146,6.9951032330727525,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.0,30.236433011588616,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,69.0,29.759653720585042,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,69.0,29.12048347898083,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,68.5,25.714346434991153,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.75,31.595921669939887,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +Toto-1.0,62.0,28.753205083598854,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,62.0,29.45241897965094,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,61.5,29.1761523445201,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,61.5,29.6956210738891,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.75,25.883263022341175,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,56.49999999999999,28.23998648969035,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,49.500000000000014,16.462366143379946,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,46.5,24.80079887494443,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,41.0,15.90999185953288,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,34.0,14.265515876146328,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,31.999999999999996,4.835755105983619,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +Naive,27.749999999999993,0.09410405602899852,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 +Drift,27.500000000000004,6.995102476216641,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,27.24999999999999,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +TFT,26.999999999999996,-0.6246028567987283,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.999999999999996,2.754946880183251,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 213a5b19af0f3a5310279dccdc224bac5dc737f8..30a3e2e76ced84d05972b0c56ad4f50a809dd455 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571428,40.552489915488046,0.0,1.1526229114583333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,73.57142857142857,40.42137769720644,0.0,0.33713188125000004,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.78571428571428,41.64215769175597,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,67.85714285714286,38.88592211612176,0.0,0.3170949572916667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,40.23878103293733,0.0,9.245004833333333,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.78571428571429,38.083893012167536,0.0,0.406559469375,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.85714285714286,34.096239445747244,0.0,28.343891684635416,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,57.857142857142854,33.50700504489347,0.0,193.737679803125,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,52.85714285714286,32.19312845196244,0.0,2.600062978125,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.42857142857143,19.92503103258492,0.0,7.909155262500001,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,39.28571428571429,24.248203686038707,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.999999999999993,18.14389549105302,0.0,2.196897983333333,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,21.071428571428577,0.0,0.0,1.1288162752343749,0.0,0.0 -Drift,18.571428571428577,0.8421348585152089,0.0,1.1894594236458333,0.0,0.0 -Naive,17.5,-6.552998309491742,0.0,1.196338605,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.49999999999999,40.552489916172874,0.0,1.1256479395833334,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.0,40.421377709866235,0.0,0.3492251116666667,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,77.25000000000001,41.64215770095807,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,71.0,38.88592212674449,0.0,0.330588668125,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,66.75,38.083893021927985,0.0,0.41178704374999997,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.5,40.320844847410996,0.0,9.804296426666667,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,65.5,36.31335951896396,0.0,1.679734656979167,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,64.50000000000001,38.14282869293443,0.0,53.951610824166664,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,60.00000000000001,33.50707751988894,0.0,191.30953815208332,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,59.00000000000001,32.19312847125849,0.0,2.5273205354166666,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,43.50000000000001,19.925031039747566,0.0,7.6933014760416665,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,41.99999999999999,24.248203702135108,0.0,8.29280267,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,41.49999999999999,25.255259089696292,1.2161332720833333,0.19742606979166666,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,36.5,15.68929320376099,1252.3585836206248,0.9790481578125001,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,35.50000000000001,21.67302472205549,13.210264008932292,0.19426541770833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.0,18.143895495008643,0.0,2.3246237520833333,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.5,15.548311275264371,812.3820815818749,0.4485787422916667,0.0,0.0 +TFT,29.999999999999993,6.246826522995086,577.3621929408333,0.91290832015625,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,24.25,0.0,0.0,1.2681127877083334,0.0,0.0 +Drift,21.5,0.8421348846480603,0.0,1.3917920932291667,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.749999999999996,-6.552998310854519,0.0,1.2969351423177082,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv index 4f4366a5598bb94c706ac35905ac809cd0cd9af1..ce085a0d0edffd6d5d431e96e2f0f6789d96faa5 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.124,0.085 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.052,0.023 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.082,0.154 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.03,-0.114,0.028 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.002,-0.046,0.041 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.04,0.08 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.036,-0.098,0.168 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.052,-0.07,0.182 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.117,-0.048,0.245 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.275,0.078,0.425 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.196,0.073,0.308 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.17,0.455 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.185,0.434 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.263,0.17,0.344 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.093,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.093,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.088,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.118,0.212 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.018,0.168 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.026,-0.178,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.014,-0.094,0.036 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.018,-0.087,0.112 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.041,-0.026,0.112 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.151,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.004,-0.149,0.123 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.017,-0.09,0.111 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.052,-0.167,0.215 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.067,-0.126,0.221 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.041,-0.026,0.112 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.132,0.016,0.262 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.287,0.092,0.44 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.208,0.083,0.346 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.27,0.092,0.435 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.204,0.472 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.222,0.447 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.274,0.174,0.382 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.024,0.049 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.124,0.085 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.01,-0.052,0.023 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.056,0.143 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.101,0.001 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.03,-0.114,0.028 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.024,-0.166,0.118 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.154,0.112 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.001,-0.048,0.039 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.036,-0.098,0.168 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.052,-0.07,0.182 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.04,0.08 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.117,-0.048,0.245 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.275,0.078,0.425 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.071,0.437 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.318,0.17,0.455 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.081,0.081 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.01,-0.024,0.049 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.063,0.166 +TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.026,0.146 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.032,-0.085,0.006 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.02,-0.063,0.015 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.041,0.064 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.013,0.085 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.129,0.119 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.12,0.112 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.011,-0.041,0.062 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.108,0.181 TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.066,0.191 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.035,-0.013,0.085 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.126,-0.013,0.252 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.283,0.074,0.447 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.083,0.322 +TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.266,0.076,0.443 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.184,0.464 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.206,0.44 -TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.27,0.185,0.358 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.182,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.269,0.106 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.199,0.059 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.074,-0.201,0.018 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.056,-0.167,0.053 +FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.171,0.025 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.239,0.014 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.088,-0.212,0.013 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.082,-0.303,0.107 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.078,-0.28,0.101 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.055,-0.212,0.078 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.018,-0.264,0.186 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.002,-0.238,0.201 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.03,-0.119,0.052 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.068,-0.006,0.133 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.234,-0.021,0.43 +FlowState,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.216,0.059,0.362 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.279,0.18,0.379 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.025,-0.074,0.151 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.001,0.091 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.031,-0.006,0.079 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.014,0.193 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.056,-0.246,0.044 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.023,-0.229,0.1 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.0,-0.134,0.098 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.177,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.028,-0.177,0.192 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.095,-0.01,0.208 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.257,-0.028,0.458 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.083,0.263 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.198,0.415 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.214,0.407 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.18,0.308 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.029,-0.029,0.102 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.055,0.076 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.098,0.134 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.082,0.123 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.042,-0.023,0.102 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.039,0.191 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.019,0.206 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.002,0.145 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.153,-0.001,0.292 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.305,0.079,0.471 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.088,0.478 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.194,0.48 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.037,0.086 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.029,-0.029,0.102 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.02,-0.015,0.059 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.053,-0.046,0.197 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.081,-0.013,0.175 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.082,0.052 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.032,-0.035,0.104 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.054,0.003,0.111 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.006,-0.097,0.128 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.086,0.121 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.031,-0.034,0.103 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.09,0.204 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.08,-0.053,0.206 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.054,0.003,0.111 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.143,0.011,0.27 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.297,0.077,0.458 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.219,0.09,0.349 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.28,0.082,0.456 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.203,0.482 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.218,0.457 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.196,0.383 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.002,-0.043,0.044 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.019,-0.126,0.08 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.068,0.039 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.111,0.187 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.033,-0.116,0.033 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.152,0.131 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.024,-0.134,0.142 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.136,0.114 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.076,-0.119,0.233 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.018,-0.155,0.089 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.006,-0.147,0.089 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.107,0.126 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.132,0.216 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.074,-0.097,0.22 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.118,0.168 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.138,-0.086,0.314 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.292,0.018,0.468 +LightGBM,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.276,0.001,0.488 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.334,0.122,0.504 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.004,-0.14,0.129 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.127,0.134 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.126,0.107 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.073,-0.112,0.218 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.14,0.076 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.137,0.079 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.021,-0.101,0.119 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.056,-0.114,0.205 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.088,0.211 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.045,-0.115,0.157 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.135,-0.079,0.306 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.29,0.021,0.474 +CatBoost,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.015,0.482 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.125,0.498 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.017,-0.125,0.082 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.001,-0.041,0.045 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.011,-0.066,0.039 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.052,-0.085,0.175 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.044,-0.113,0.022 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.032,-0.115,0.033 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.145,0.096 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.135,0.092 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.023,-0.058,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.034,-0.097,0.147 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.049,-0.059,0.159 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.115,-0.073,0.269 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.084,0.416 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.194,0.057,0.332 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.149,0.472 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.314,0.165,0.452 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.261,0.159,0.368 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.087,0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.127,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.0,-0.108,0.118 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.057,-0.125,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.023,-0.104,0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.158,0.153 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.124,0.167 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.095,-0.022,0.198 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.257,0.058,0.42 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.078,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.183,0.423 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.2,0.397 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.181,0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.202,0.089 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.035,-0.091,0.147 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.05,-0.056,0.159 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.058,0.096 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.116,-0.071,0.268 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.274,0.083,0.418 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.257,0.054,0.451 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.317,0.15,0.473 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.054,-0.274,0.143 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.202,0.089 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.222,0.098 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.215,0.151 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.018,-0.228,0.209 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.236,0.037 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.256,0.083 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.035,-0.173,0.089 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.181,0.137 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.275,0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.059,-0.258,0.103 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.172,0.083 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.021,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.181,0.137 Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.19,0.289 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.248,0.049,0.443 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.165,-0.004,0.322 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.23,-0.021,0.457 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.292,0.066,0.47 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.29,0.09,0.457 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.235,0.093,0.356 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.222,0.065 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.072,-0.284,0.112 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.222,0.065 AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.236,0.062 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.029,-0.238,0.15 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.002,-0.251,0.192 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.259,0.018 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.26,0.051 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.052,-0.188,0.055 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.2,0.11 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.08,-0.282,0.088 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.267,0.08 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.053,-0.189,0.053 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.048,0.02 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.2,0.11 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.069,-0.2,0.272 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.236,0.04,0.428 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.152,-0.014,0.31 +AutoETS,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.218,-0.031,0.436 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.281,0.048,0.466 -AutoETS,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.278,0.077,0.448 -AutoETS,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.222,0.081,0.353 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.133,-0.325,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.127,0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.087,0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.036,-0.092,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.029,-0.055,0.107 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.169,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.057,-0.125,-0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.05,-0.201,0.106 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.047,-0.186,0.103 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.024,-0.106,0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.011,-0.158,0.153 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.124,0.167 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.095,-0.022,0.198 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.257,0.058,0.42 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.239,0.078,0.39 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.183,0.423 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.151,-0.355,-0.017 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.133,-0.325,0.046 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.145,-0.337,0.012 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.105,-0.262,0.01 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.073,-0.154,0.006 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.181,-0.413,0.001 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.167,-0.37,-0.011 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.368,0.068 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.105,-0.246,0.021 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.16,-0.459,0.079 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.156,-0.441,0.073 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.132,-0.366,0.066 Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.406,0.159 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.075,-0.373,0.167 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.105,-0.246,0.021 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.179,-0.134,0.405 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.088,-0.017,0.19 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.159,0.014,0.284 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.227,0.146,0.302 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.225,0.152,0.28 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.164,0.052,0.258 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.38,-0.738,-0.085 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.402,-0.787,-0.101 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.38,-0.738,-0.085 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.394,-0.807,-0.08 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.346,-0.845,0.027 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.306,-0.754,0.021 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.438,-0.89,-0.086 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.422,-0.846,-0.083 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.711,-0.092 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.345,-0.725,-0.062 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.413,-0.88,-0.018 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.408,-0.902,-0.021 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.378,-0.718,-0.091 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.33,-0.795,-0.052 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.309,-0.748,-0.041 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.345,-0.725,-0.062 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.218,-0.682,0.118 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.11,-0.447,0.155 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.336,0.22 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.309,0.333 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.056,-0.275,0.304 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.017,-0.354,0.225 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.243,-0.445,-0.079 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.263,-0.53,-0.09 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.476,-0.09 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.356,-0.09 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.281,-0.536,-0.099 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.24,-0.497,-0.061 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.375,-0.084 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.198,-0.474,0.004 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.179,-0.449,0.013 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.234,0.017 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.099,-0.183,0.309 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.152,0.05,0.24 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.149,0.067,0.222 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.083,0.013,0.166 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.466,-0.835,-0.204 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.37,-0.769,-0.101 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.348,-0.775,-0.077 +TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.362,-0.797,-0.083 +TFT,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.276,-0.567,-0.062 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.405,-0.916,-0.096 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.389,-0.837,-0.089 +TFT,LightGBM,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-0.953,-0.001 +TFT,CatBoost,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.929,-0.015 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.346,-0.821,-0.057 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.299,-0.842,0.02 +TFT,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.278,-0.773,0.03 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.314,-0.64,-0.085 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.19,-0.396,-0.014 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.283,0.251 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.081,-0.027,0.177 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.893,-0.257 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.466,-0.835,-0.204 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.865,-0.226 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.711,-0.247 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.388,-0.61,-0.22 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.922,-0.241 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.93,-0.255 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.893,-0.175 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.732,-0.224 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.501,-1.017,-0.14 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.496,-0.991,-0.143 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.464,-0.899,-0.177 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.413,-0.885,-0.07 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.39,-0.872,-0.051 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.732,-0.224 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.294,-0.433,-0.171 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.499,0.236 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.179,-0.315,-0.052 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.088,-0.216,0.026 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.056,0.041 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.23,0.043 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.461,-0.766,-0.226 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.807,-0.286 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.476,-0.787,-0.259 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.686,-0.272 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.843,-0.278 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.458,-0.823,-0.197 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.659,-0.25 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.409,-0.84,-0.099 -Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.386,-0.812,-0.084 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.29,-0.39,-0.179 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.059,-0.436,0.215 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.176,-0.286,-0.072 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.043,0.053 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.078,-0.197,0.018 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.356,-0.526,-0.205 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.378,-0.618,-0.21 -Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.37,-0.559,-0.227 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.445,-0.22 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.397,-0.621,-0.244 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.353,-0.582,-0.189 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.458,-0.22 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.307,-0.552,-0.103 -Drift,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.286,-0.545,-0.088 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.348,-0.055 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.017,-0.29,0.262 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.091,-0.199,-0.013 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.045,0.187 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.072,-0.018,0.164 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv index 8ae72f04d0a559c197ad63f7aa6a5df2ef33c726..ca1700930b2e8b52c03d315a113de082064ab47a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.091,0.094 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.01,-0.086,0.045 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.004,-0.055,0.051 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.044,-0.04,0.15 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.005,-0.032,0.03 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.019,-0.022,0.054 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.025,-0.035,0.08 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.005,-0.053,0.052 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.079,-0.021,0.16 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.101,-0.023,0.231 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.094,-0.039,0.227 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.19,0.034,0.308 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.175,0.055,0.3 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.326,0.106,0.481 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.112,0.362 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.177,0.066,0.294 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.19,0.034,0.308 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.095,0.462 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.504 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.295,0.531 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.281,0.47 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.104,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.011,-0.085,0.035 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.003,-0.106,0.103 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.044,-0.078,0.182 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.096,0.075 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.018,-0.05,0.072 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.032,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.105,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.001,0.158 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.1,-0.086,0.252 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.093,-0.113,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.189,0.085,0.301 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.174,0.054,0.302 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.325,0.109,0.484 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.117,0.377 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.177,0.057,0.294 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.189,0.085,0.301 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.108,0.444 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.264,0.511 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.325,0.529 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.277,0.474 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.015,-0.083,0.043 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.057,0.142 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.051,0.223 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.077,-0.082,0.222 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.175,0.044,0.286 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.313,0.094,0.48 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.103,0.354 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.3,0.518 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.268,0.464 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.01,-0.047,0.079 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.011,-0.036,0.078 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.052,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.037,0.187 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.014,-0.035,0.072 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.028,-0.009,0.068 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.35,0.9,0.035,-0.011,0.083 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.052,0.084 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.088,-0.002,0.175 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.11,-0.022,0.239 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.103,-0.055,0.246 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.198,0.072,0.318 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.183,0.084,0.299 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.332,0.099,0.498 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.121,0.388 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.185,0.091,0.295 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.198,0.072,0.318 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.291,0.086,0.467 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.253,0.522 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.316,0.541 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.384,0.286,0.486 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.004,-0.053,0.052 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.003,-0.115,0.096 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.015,-0.045,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.091,0.05 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.041,-0.072,0.187 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.059,0.092 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.098,-0.011,0.205 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.032,0.205 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.187,0.002,0.333 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.323,0.113,0.478 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.09,0.388 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.213,0.526 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.279,0.544 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.265,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.046,-0.176,0.038 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.222,0.072 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.165,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.23,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.042,-0.23,0.067 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.005,-0.031,0.031 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.081,0.087 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.015,-0.077,0.034 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.02,-0.148,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.059,-0.119,0.221 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.052,-0.127,0.215 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.153,0.046,0.252 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.295,0.03,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.116,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.249,0.449 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.308,0.49 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.271,0.429 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.014,-0.023,0.052 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.02,-0.025,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.0,-0.071,0.059 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.075,-0.015,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.097,-0.022,0.22 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.09,-0.039,0.217 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.171,0.063,0.29 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.323,0.093,0.492 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,0.077,0.285 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.186,0.052,0.297 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.281,0.095,0.454 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.247,0.498 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.019,-0.057,0.021 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.018,-0.077,0.048 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.029,-0.073,0.009 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.014,-0.055,0.023 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.006,-0.035,0.045 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.014,-0.082,0.044 +TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.062,-0.016,0.132 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.084,-0.051,0.223 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.077,-0.082,0.222 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.159,0.041,0.292 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.313,0.094,0.48 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.162,0.05,0.286 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.175,0.044,0.286 +TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.271,0.083,0.442 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.24,0.497 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.026,-0.086,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.087,0.031 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.1,0.65,-0.036,-0.091,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.101,0.055 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.02,-0.061,0.129 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.021,-0.075,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.006,-0.048,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.021,-0.1,0.057 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.055,-0.03,0.134 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.078,-0.063,0.207 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.071,-0.088,0.209 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.169,0.052,0.27 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.153,0.032,0.287 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.309,0.096,0.471 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.114,0.336 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.156,0.036,0.284 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.169,0.052,0.27 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.092,0.423 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.481 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.306,0.509 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.279,0.456 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.005,-0.054,0.05 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.116,0.095 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.092,0.049 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.0,-0.063,0.066 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.014,-0.046,0.076 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.02,-0.06,0.091 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.075,-0.06,0.197 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.097,-0.011,0.203 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.09,-0.032,0.203 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.171,0.07,0.277 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.323,0.112,0.478 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,0.076,0.273 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.186,0.0,0.333 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.281,0.068,0.478 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.214,0.526 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.086,-0.191,0.02 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.187,-0.001 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.097,-0.213,0.002 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.081,-0.189,0.015 +FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.066,-0.152,0.016 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.059,-0.154,0.03 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.081,-0.245,0.057 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.199,0.224 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.016,-0.228,0.22 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.104,-0.092,0.273 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.268,0.006,0.467 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.107,-0.072,0.263 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.039,0.189 +FlowState,TFT,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.223,0.049,0.377 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.22,0.435 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.112,-0.3,0.023 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.112,-0.337,0.079 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.288,0.049 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.313,0.022 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.108,-0.257,0.011 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.063,-0.284,0.107 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.107,-0.282,0.021 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.092,-0.288,0.049 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.085,-0.262,0.059 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.107,-0.254,0.011 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.289,0.166 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.008,-0.047,0.04 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.174,0.293 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.082,-0.113,0.254 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.25,0.032,0.456 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.163,-0.008,0.327 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.085,-0.101,0.243 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.174,0.293 +AutoETS,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.204,-0.057,0.436 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.311,0.076,0.492 -AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.358,0.144,0.517 -AutoETS,Drift,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.308,0.137,0.456 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.104,-0.293,0.038 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.103,-0.346,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.083,-0.285,0.076 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.115,-0.326,0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.099,-0.258,0.031 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.055,-0.273,0.112 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.099,-0.278,0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.083,-0.285,0.076 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.076,-0.264,0.081 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.098,-0.254,0.031 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.283,0.185 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.008,-0.041,0.045 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.106,-0.182,0.31 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.089,-0.123,0.263 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.052,0.456 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.169,-0.008,0.33 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.092,-0.11,0.256 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.106,-0.182,0.31 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.21,-0.047,0.444 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.317,0.085,0.492 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.363,0.152,0.52 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.314,0.147,0.458 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.235,-0.445,-0.035 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.234,-0.43,-0.092 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.212,-0.4,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.247,-0.467,-0.078 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.23,-0.5,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.18,-0.337,-0.049 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.204,-0.37,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.415,0.148 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.119,-0.45,0.154 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.168,-0.162,0.415 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.052,0.191 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.136,0.326 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.193,0.375 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.232,0.091,0.354 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.211,-0.429,-0.058 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.21,-0.432,-0.057 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.223,-0.426,-0.092 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.206,-0.409,-0.067 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.189,-0.412,-0.042 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.181,-0.403,-0.033 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.206,-0.384,-0.075 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.116,-0.375,0.084 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.089,-0.34,0.102 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.098,-0.356,0.11 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.183,-0.19,0.407 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.02,0.028 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.25,0.223 +LightGBM,TFT,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.133,-0.239,0.393 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.25,0.017,0.438 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.483,-0.928,-0.119 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.482,-0.938,-0.122 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.456,-0.922,-0.104 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.498,-0.991,-0.109 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.478,-0.916,-0.127 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.418,-0.959,-0.031 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.476,-0.968,-0.102 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.456,-0.922,-0.104 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.446,-0.89,-0.106 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.476,-0.916,-0.126 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.366,-0.877,-0.006 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.333,-0.839,-0.033 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.837,-0.055 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.201,-0.711,0.14 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.225,-0.687,0.16 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.116,-0.482,0.162 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.22,-0.695,0.16 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.201,-0.711,0.14 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.392,0.197 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.082,-0.298,0.358 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.144,-0.212,0.398 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,-0.292,0.36 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.329,-0.568,-0.126 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.606,-0.133 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.548,-0.115 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.634,-0.137 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.635,-0.099 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.413,-0.132 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.507,-0.129 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.194,-0.485,0.008 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.204,-0.493,0.008 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.235,0.049 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.104,-0.193,0.325 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.061,0.286 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.233,0.111,0.358 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.174,0.033,0.323 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.216,-0.417,-0.07 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.214,-0.417,-0.06 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.227,-0.419,-0.101 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.398,-0.083 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.193,-0.401,-0.053 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.185,-0.397,-0.038 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.376,-0.082 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.119,-0.358,0.067 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.093,-0.321,0.092 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.101,-0.345,0.099 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.029,0.019 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.181,-0.19,0.41 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.016,-0.24,0.213 +CatBoost,TFT,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.13,-0.224,0.383 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.247,0.025,0.432 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.235,-0.445,-0.035 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.234,-0.43,-0.092 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.247,-0.467,-0.078 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.229,-0.422,-0.055 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.212,-0.4,-0.046 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.204,-0.37,-0.055 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.229,-0.499,-0.0 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.137,-0.232,-0.04 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.415,0.148 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.119,-0.45,0.154 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.287,0.2 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.168,-0.162,0.415 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.016,-0.271,0.194 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.116,-0.051,0.26 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.136,0.326 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.858,-0.105 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.396,-0.797,-0.121 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.411,-0.876,-0.094 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.391,-0.831,-0.105 +TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.371,-0.791,-0.091 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.362,-0.733,-0.102 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.391,-0.914,-0.073 +TFT,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.287,-0.605,-0.052 +TFT,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.256,-0.773,0.054 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.266,-0.798,0.045 +TFT,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.153,-0.648,0.193 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.058,-0.245,0.281 +TFT,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.15,-0.622,0.183 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.132,-0.352,0.048 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.135,0.014,0.251 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.015,-0.319 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.614,-1.045,-0.359 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-1.091,-0.338 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-1.11,-0.271 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.815,-0.331 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.992,-0.328 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.99,-0.316 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.575,-0.927,-0.328 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.607,-1.108,-0.272 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.488,-0.769,-0.282 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.452,-0.969,-0.082 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.463,-0.968,-0.092 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.308,-0.483,-0.157 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.333,-0.779,-0.017 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.089,-0.559,0.23 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.216,-0.4,-0.065 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.329,-0.759,-0.025 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.308,-0.483,-0.157 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.156,-0.336,-0.014 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.068,-0.011,0.163 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.004,-0.169,0.151 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.733,-1.133,-0.419 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.123,-0.482 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-1.073,-0.429 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.75,-1.179,-0.461 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.192,-0.388 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-0.96,-0.445 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.69,-1.037,-0.44 -Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.558,-1.07,-0.168 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.57,-1.084,-0.179 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.404,-0.6,-0.238 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.168,-0.661,0.175 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.304,-0.559,-0.124 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.073,-0.195,0.01 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.077,-0.195,0.018 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.888,-0.39 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.607,-0.901,-0.383 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.867,-0.367 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.624,-0.947,-0.401 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-0.96,-0.361 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.537,-0.751,-0.372 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.838,-0.388 -Drift,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.446,-0.837,-0.158 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.457,-0.847,-0.172 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.303,-0.549,-0.1 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.084,-0.562,0.226 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.211,-0.476,-0.034 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.004,-0.178,0.144 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.072,-0.018,0.163 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv index a4e8adcc22a1f3d3b284076ce51d65ba06b9a002..4cecfd0e20a085181b0c8cb732330b265483d4b9 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.108,0.137 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.063,0.073 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.016,-0.108,0.137 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.02,-0.124,0.049 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.024,-0.091,0.142 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.061,-0.057,0.195 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.095,0.138 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.166,0.152 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.008,-0.184,0.15 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.104,-0.023,0.268 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.015,-0.089,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.028,-0.115,0.163 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.059,-0.012,0.139 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.011,-0.166,0.152 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.072,-0.078,0.192 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.165,0.037,0.307 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.17,0.027,0.288 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.186,0.053,0.339 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.168,0.445 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.302,0.151,0.466 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.25,0.135,0.374 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.159,0.097 -Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.092,0.059 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.144,0.052 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.009,-0.065,0.082 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.16,0.126 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.089,-0.037,0.24 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.071,0.143 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.165,0.134 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.152,-0.069,0.311 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.157,-0.004,0.306 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,-0.029,0.334 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.291,0.073,0.451 -Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.291,0.052,0.471 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.238,0.053,0.37 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.078,0.059 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.062,0.084 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.009,-0.062,0.084 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.027,-0.087,0.031 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.018,-0.052,0.08 +TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.054,-0.089,0.201 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.053,0.073 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.139,0.133 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.001,-0.156,0.132 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.098,-0.024,0.267 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.008,-0.044,0.069 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.021,-0.093,0.143 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.052,-0.028,0.146 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.139,0.133 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.066,-0.043,0.17 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.159,-0.02,0.324 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.165,0.011,0.282 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.181,0.01,0.351 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.297,0.113,0.463 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.098,0.478 -TiRex,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.245,0.092,0.382 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.016,-0.159,0.097 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.009,-0.092,0.059 +Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.144,0.052 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.046,-0.141,0.185 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.065,0.075 +Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.165,0.134 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.16,0.126 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,-0.001,-0.035,0.025 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.012,-0.131,0.145 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.071,0.143 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.044,0.16 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.152,-0.069,0.311 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.598,1.0,0.157,-0.004,0.306 +Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.173,-0.029,0.334 +Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.291,0.052,0.471 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.019,-0.052,0.11 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.055,0.126 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.026,-0.032,0.08 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.055,0.126 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.043,-0.046,0.133 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.079,-0.061,0.204 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.045,0.126 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.03,-0.08,0.138 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.027,-0.093,0.134 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.121,-0.021,0.28 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.034,-0.041,0.101 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.06,0.159 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.45,1.0,0.077,-0.001,0.158 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.03,-0.08,0.138 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.09,-0.028,0.191 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.181,0.029,0.327 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.187,0.016,0.325 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.202,0.043,0.355 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.315,0.147,0.473 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.316,0.124,0.487 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.265,0.132,0.392 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.025,-0.166,0.083 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.009,-0.089,0.061 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.018,-0.087,0.05 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.045,-0.154,0.044 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.065,-0.242,0.054 +FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.058,-0.251,0.082 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.048,-0.227,0.124 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.086,-0.257,0.058 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.043,-0.273,0.14 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.053,-0.274,0.151 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.057,-0.267,0.131 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.208,0.096 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.035,-0.286,0.16 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.133,0.112 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.012,-0.213,0.185 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.111,0.02,0.203 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.117,-0.144,0.314 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.134,0.004,0.24 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.128,0.376 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.161,0.087 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.014,-0.079,0.051 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.081,0.061 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.144,0.043 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.041,-0.163,0.214 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.017,-0.182,0.121 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.081,-0.069,0.253 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.085,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.183,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.085,0.321 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.15,0.026,0.263 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.166,-0.043,0.34 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.284,0.062,0.453 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.285,0.047,0.473 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.231,0.045,0.375 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.01,-0.17,0.12 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.172,0.119 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.006,-0.073,0.057 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.007,-0.126,0.133 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.039,-0.077,0.133 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.053,-0.053,0.162 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.147,-0.078,0.321 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.153,0.028,0.267 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.169,-0.036,0.343 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.288,0.053,0.476 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.179,0.143 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.153,0.122 +AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.154,0.142 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.031,-0.16,0.074 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.05,-0.178,0.215 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.01,-0.136,0.145 +AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.04,0.045 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.146,0.122 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.017,-0.124,0.154 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.082,0.166 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.062,-0.075,0.18 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.155,-0.058,0.327 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.007,0.335 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.008,0.343 +AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.295,0.066,0.481 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.008,-0.176,0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.145,0.138 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.001,-0.153,0.135 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.145,0.138 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.028,-0.155,0.085 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.017,-0.137,0.154 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.054,-0.15,0.211 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.135,0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.047,0.039 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.097,-0.079,0.244 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.134,0.123 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.02,-0.128,0.157 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.051,-0.066,0.167 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.003,-0.047,0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.065,-0.063,0.186 Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,-0.054,0.323 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.164,0.009,0.335 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.18,0.025,0.327 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.296,0.108,0.458 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.297,0.08,0.468 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.115,0.363 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.116,-0.366,0.023 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.098,-0.316,0.036 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.108,-0.365,0.024 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.138,-0.389,0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.089,-0.339,0.064 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.107,-0.323,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.128,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.008,-0.074,0.042 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,0.001,-0.026,0.034 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.035,-0.112,0.039 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.047,-0.106,0.172 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.006,-0.061,0.068 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.139,0.128 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.14,0.118 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.05,-0.196,0.049 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.103,-0.365,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.068,-0.063,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.074,-0.172,0.25 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.092,-0.02,0.181 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.221,0.082,0.328 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.222,0.075,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.163,0.055,0.248 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.115,0.145 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.044,-0.043,0.124 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.058,-0.037,0.163 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.152,-0.041,0.301 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,0.004,0.297 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.174,0.001,0.322 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.292,0.081,0.459 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.029,-0.195,0.103 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.167,0.085 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.012,-0.17,0.116 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.049,-0.189,0.057 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.034,-0.19,0.223 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.007,-0.153,0.112 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.017,-0.182,0.11 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.021,-0.186,0.113 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.013,-0.169,0.103 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.032,-0.148,0.159 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.094 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.141,-0.109,0.329 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.147,-0.07,0.303 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.163,-0.07,0.356 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.282,0.037,0.481 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.062,-0.161,0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.167,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.055,-0.171,0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.167,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.0,0.55,-0.084,-0.188,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.037,-0.155,0.078 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.126,0.117 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.04,-0.154,0.072 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.199,0.076 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.054,-0.201,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.048,-0.052,0.164 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.046,-0.142,0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.033,-0.189,0.129 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.051,-0.199,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.014,-0.125,0.155 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.113,-0.012,0.219 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.119,-0.028,0.247 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.136,0.026,0.244 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.258,0.121,0.38 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.259,0.102,0.399 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.203,0.107,0.292 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.011,-0.179,0.143 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.154,0.142 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.153,0.122 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.031,-0.16,0.074 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.013,-0.136,0.154 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.003,-0.04,0.045 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.094,-0.105,0.267 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.048,-0.082,0.166 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.155,-0.058,0.327 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.007,0.335 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.008,0.343 -AutoETS,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.294,0.094,0.464 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.295,0.066,0.481 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.241,0.094,0.377 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.078,-0.237,0.072 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.205,0.041 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.19,0.042 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.099,-0.237,0.027 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.012,-0.227,0.176 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.055,-0.193,0.05 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.219,0.07 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.07,-0.229,0.06 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.062,-0.195,0.036 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.104,-0.001 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.015,-0.184,0.111 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.1,-0.167,0.296 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.106,-0.092,0.266 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.123,-0.104,0.318 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.248,-0.011,0.457 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.444,-0.038 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.179,-0.452,0.064 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.189,-0.48,0.02 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.179,-0.452,0.064 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.221,-0.487,-0.03 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.472,0.078 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.125,-0.254,-0.021 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.173,-0.473,0.072 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.184,-0.486,0.055 Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.188,-0.476,0.051 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.073,-0.201,0.059 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.18,-0.431,0.039 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.164,-0.489,0.099 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.127,-0.281,0.012 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.184,-0.486,0.055 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.111,-0.421,0.143 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.007,-0.283,0.227 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.026,-0.073,0.109 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.164,0.079,0.245 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.165,0.065,0.256 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.102,-0.013,0.203 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.205,-0.404,-0.028 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.186,-0.441,0.004 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.197,-0.394,-0.011 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.402,-0.186,-0.441,0.004 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.229,-0.482,-0.016 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.176,-0.356,-0.027 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.132,-0.457,0.126 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.18,-0.364,-0.029 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.504,-0.007 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.196,-0.504,-0.009 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.08,-0.333,0.147 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.187,-0.423,-0.004 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.172,-0.435,0.066 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.135,-0.328,0.027 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.504,-0.007 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.118,-0.363,0.085 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.007,-0.294,0.221 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.198,0.22 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.158,-0.085,0.352 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.159,-0.099,0.377 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.096,-0.116,0.293 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.229,-0.512,-0.056 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.501,0.029 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.221,-0.54,-0.01 +AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.21,-0.501,0.029 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.253,-0.55,-0.045 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.199,-0.516,0.041 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.154,-0.316,-0.004 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.203,-0.522,0.035 +AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.215,-0.521,-0.009 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.219,-0.486,-0.025 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.102,-0.221,0.019 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.211,-0.476,-0.001 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.195,-0.552,0.066 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.157,-0.323,-0.027 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.215,-0.521,-0.009 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.14,-0.466,0.094 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.122,0.068 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.282,0.166 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.142,0.049,0.223 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.143,0.04,0.238 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.078,0.006,0.16 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.432,-0.803,-0.201 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.41,-0.823,-0.079 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.422,-0.861,-0.127 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.461,-0.897,-0.172 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.397,-0.829,-0.066 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.421,-0.846,-0.12 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.284,-0.487,-0.089 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.348,-0.612,-0.138 -Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.416,-0.865,-0.104 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.196,-0.325,-0.085 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.188,-0.543,0.079 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.165,-0.287,-0.051 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.001,-0.064,0.06 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.074,-0.193,0.018 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.433,-0.874,-0.179 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.411,-0.889,-0.054 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.424,-0.915,-0.109 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.411,-0.889,-0.054 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.462,-0.951,-0.141 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.399,-0.898,-0.049 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.346,-0.602,-0.147 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.404,-0.91,-0.055 +Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.417,-0.928,-0.07 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.422,-0.879,-0.087 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.285,-0.511,-0.082 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.412,-0.85,-0.089 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.394,-0.927,-0.038 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.349,-0.664,-0.113 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.417,-0.928,-0.07 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.33,-0.841,0.011 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.197,-0.344,-0.069 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.189,-0.604,0.09 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.166,-0.312,-0.041 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.001,-0.064,0.061 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.075,-0.224,0.057 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.333,-0.598,-0.156 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.312,-0.587,-0.056 -Drift,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.324,-0.617,-0.102 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.36,-0.644,-0.152 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.301,-0.601,-0.047 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.57,-0.129 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.195,-0.331,-0.059 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.255,-0.412,-0.12 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.318,-0.606,-0.104 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.113,-0.255,0.013 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.106,-0.414,0.104 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.085,-0.19,-0.006 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.069,-0.018,0.162 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.07,-0.06,0.183 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv index 62b45aa454bfbd3f0ca6fb3137be2480f9053d1e..a4532e0b86e869a19609c9bb49b149583c358f55 100644 --- a/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_health/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.109,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.023,0.085 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.005,-0.109,0.12 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.106,-0.099,0.28 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.098,-0.013,0.238 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.123,-0.074,0.306 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.258,0.079,0.398 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.091,0.339 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.274,0.122,0.417 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.4,0.286,0.502 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.442,0.332,0.543 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.002,-0.119,0.095 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.021,-0.11,0.055 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.025,-0.055,0.099 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.003,-0.077,0.077 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.002,-0.077,0.077 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.065,-0.097,0.191 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.037,-0.004,0.081 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.038,-0.07,0.13 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.104,-0.054,0.262 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.096,-0.008,0.217 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.121,-0.042,0.298 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.104,-0.054,0.262 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.408 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.203,0.08,0.321 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.214,0.006,0.359 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.272,0.096,0.418 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.293,0.066,0.485 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.15,0.334 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.404,0.211,0.549 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.399,0.258,0.509 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.441,0.286,0.559 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.002,-0.105,0.106 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.019,-0.109,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.027,-0.023,0.085 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.004,-0.109,0.114 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.067,-0.041,0.182 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.028,0.11 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.04,-0.018,0.102 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.123,-0.074,0.306 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.106,-0.099,0.28 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.258,0.079,0.398 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.205,0.084,0.326 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.091,0.339 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.112,0.488 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.241,0.12,0.347 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.261,0.536 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.02,-0.058,0.099 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.018,-0.045,0.098 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.045,-0.008,0.103 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.023,-0.061,0.104 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.059,0.098 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.084,-0.05,0.203 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.057,-0.016,0.126 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.5,0.951,0.057,-0.013,0.128 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.048,0.277 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.114,-0.014,0.258 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.02,0.311 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.048,0.277 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.271,0.072,0.423 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.219,0.118,0.326 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.23,0.079,0.368 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.287,0.111,0.433 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.089,0.505 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.255,0.152,0.347 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.242,0.564 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.411,0.287,0.517 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.314,0.57 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.093,0.023 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.026,-0.11,0.052 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.028,-0.093,0.023 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.047,-0.114,0.007 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.023,-0.099,0.044 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.024,-0.099,0.043 +TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.04,-0.104,0.184 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.012,-0.046,0.072 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.013,-0.067,0.096 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.081,-0.109,0.258 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.073,-0.044,0.227 TiRex,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.099,-0.083,0.284 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.081,-0.109,0.258 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.237,0.052,0.375 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.182,0.065,0.311 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.193,0.021,0.346 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.253,0.075,0.414 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.275,0.062,0.486 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.22,0.108,0.325 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.389,0.216,0.543 -TiRex,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.384,0.242,0.506 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.426,0.282,0.551 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.005,-0.137,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.003,-0.084,0.072 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.024,-0.117,0.058 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.022,-0.046,0.09 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.002,-0.084,0.072 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.004,-0.128,0.098 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.109,0.056 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.023,-0.045,0.09 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.035,-0.083,0.131 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.101,-0.064,0.273 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.093,-0.051,0.255 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.119,-0.053,0.302 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.254,0.091,0.389 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.211,-0.016,0.378 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.27,0.074,0.433 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.402,0.193,0.566 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.397,0.25,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.439,0.269,0.573 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.063,-0.138,0.234 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.035,-0.044,0.112 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.036,-0.076,0.13 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.12,-0.05,0.302 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.102,-0.06,0.272 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.255,0.091,0.39 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.202,0.1,0.306 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.212,-0.008,0.377 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.292,0.046,0.51 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.152,0.327 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.403,0.197,0.565 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.069,-0.237,0.088 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.222,0.039 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.091,-0.255,0.048 +FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.042,-0.225,0.094 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.067,-0.305,0.121 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.03,-0.177,0.097 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.166,0.091 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.061,-0.186,0.293 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.042,-0.2,0.257 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.205,-0.072,0.407 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.148,-0.059,0.322 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.159,0.069,0.251 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.245,0.077,0.394 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.187,-0.009,0.337 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.363,0.225,0.479 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.038,-0.088,0.004 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.123,0.027 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.06,-0.144,0.016 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.012,-0.077,0.044 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.036,-0.126,0.043 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.029,-0.108,0.151 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.001,-0.077,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.088,-0.08,0.261 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.07,-0.09,0.224 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.228,0.057,0.368 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.172,0.059,0.302 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.183,0.005,0.317 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.062,0.457 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.21,0.113,0.317 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.381,0.215,0.518 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.039,-0.149,0.066 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.049,0.5,-0.061,-0.147,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.013,-0.106,0.062 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.036,-0.151,0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.037,-0.15,0.071 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.1,0.142 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.001,-0.078,0.072 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.096,0.223 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.4,0.9,0.061,-0.042,0.173 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.087,-0.082,0.26 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.069,-0.096,0.223 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.227,0.053,0.371 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.172,0.05,0.306 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.183,0.056,0.289 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.118,0.358 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.093,0.443 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.21,0.095,0.326 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.242,0.501 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.279,0.468 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.419,0.314,0.516 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.119,-0.389,0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.116,-0.354,0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.384,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.088,-0.347,0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.376,0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.287,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.009,-0.248,0.165 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.04,0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.17,0.016,0.344 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.169,0.322 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.188,0.027,0.341 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.128,0.5 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.329,0.182,0.458 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.376,0.191,0.523 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.109,-0.312,0.013 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.106,-0.278,0.008 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.129,-0.349,0.014 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.078,-0.294,0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.103,-0.342,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.064,-0.21,0.04 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.009,-0.198,0.199 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.028,-0.227,0.241 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.177,-0.059,0.349 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.13,-0.019,0.231 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.195,0.082,0.299 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.341,0.208,0.448 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.335,0.223,0.439 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.381,0.268,0.475 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.141,-0.442,0.069 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.138,-0.424,0.04 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.141,-0.442,0.069 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.451,0.02 AutoETS,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.11,-0.396,0.077 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.135,-0.432,0.05 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.136,-0.432,0.047 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.065,-0.414,0.157 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.096,-0.352,0.074 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.095,-0.352,0.076 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.081,0.039 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.029,-0.317,0.185 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.02,-0.081,0.039 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.153,-0.023,0.348 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.093,-0.145,0.277 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.105,-0.213,0.319 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.172,-0.008,0.343 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.196,-0.113,0.452 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.134,-0.059,0.291 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.322,0.097,0.505 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.316,0.144,0.468 -AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.364,0.152,0.527 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.347,-0.661,-0.086 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.116,-0.354,0.051 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.119,-0.389,0.09 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.384,0.045 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.088,-0.347,0.099 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.114,-0.374,0.056 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.044,-0.346,0.167 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.075,-0.289,0.083 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.074,-0.287,0.088 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.019,-0.04,0.075 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.17,0.016,0.344 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.11,-0.109,0.289 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.122,-0.169,0.322 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.211,-0.07,0.437 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.151,-0.025,0.304 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.335,0.128,0.5 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.344,-0.689,-0.075 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.347,-0.661,-0.086 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.372,-0.733,-0.077 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.31,-0.6,-0.054 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.34,-0.636,-0.1 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.342,-0.64,-0.1 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.257,-0.686,0.068 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.295,-0.582,-0.06 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.293,-0.591,-0.056 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.204,-0.524,-0.016 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.215,-0.536,0.055 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.181,-0.533,0.023 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.204,-0.524,-0.016 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.071,-0.367,0.2 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.057,-0.428,0.219 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.022,-0.198,0.228 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.05,-0.268,0.327 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.022,-0.281,0.21 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,0.902,0.199,-0.062,0.407 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.192,-0.037,0.404 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.248,-0.0,0.452 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.513,-0.1 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.255,-0.472,-0.087 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.257,-0.483,-0.092 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.281,-0.483,-0.134 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.223,-0.451,-0.069 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.252,-0.44,-0.111 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.174,-0.474,0.056 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.6,-0.208,-0.433,-0.063 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.207,-0.44,-0.052 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.102,-0.382,0.126 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.124,-0.406,0.099 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.067,-0.249,0.268 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.013,-0.285,0.236 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.113,-0.266,0.397 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.094 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.253,-0.036,0.458 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.271,-0.561,-0.006 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.513,-0.1 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.298,-0.582,-0.086 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.24,-0.529,-0.021 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.268,-0.607,0.016 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.269,-0.605,0.008 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.189,-0.335,-0.074 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.225,-0.464,-0.005 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.223,-0.407,-0.059 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.475,0.145 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.149,-0.301,0.019 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.117,-0.469,0.175 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.139,-0.475,0.145 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.054,-0.28,0.3 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.013,-0.31,0.222 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.075,-0.067,0.212 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.102,-0.047,0.246 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.033,-0.254,0.258 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.242,0.118,0.351 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,1.0,0.236,0.085,0.374 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.289,0.182,0.393 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.377,-0.714,-0.139 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.374,-0.717,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.403,-0.763,-0.124 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.339,-0.705,-0.081 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.37,-0.765,-0.08 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.558,-0.133 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.231,-0.518,-0.027 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.242,-0.427,-0.09 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.207,-0.523,0.008 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.022,-0.295,0.166 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.081,-0.269,0.063 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.181,0.065,0.292 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.174,0.037,0.325 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.232,0.108,0.357 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.415,-0.941,-0.07 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.952,-0.126 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.445,-1.02,-0.098 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.38,-0.945,-0.066 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.413,-1.041,-0.048 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.324,-0.65,-0.084 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.363,-0.841,-0.066 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.362,-0.795,-0.103 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.243,-0.826,0.101 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.268,-0.778,0.065 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.053,-0.485,0.212 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.128,-0.659,0.21 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.113,-0.326,0.045 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.5,0.2,0.8,-0.076,-0.576,0.233 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.5,1.0,0.157,0.03,0.272 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.5,-0.176 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.318,-0.532,-0.136 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.342,-0.53,-0.18 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.282,-0.482,-0.121 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.485,-0.179 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.23,-0.509,0.009 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.266,-0.463,-0.128 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.265,-0.484,-0.104 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.155,-0.411,0.056 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.178,-0.437,0.024 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.022,-0.266,0.22 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.048,-0.104,-0.001 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.034,-0.347,0.202 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.5,0.2,0.8,0.071,-0.304,0.365 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.3,0.9,0.217,-0.068,0.419 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.678,-1.217,-0.268 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.682,-1.155,-0.354 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.293,-0.32 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.636,-1.186,-0.275 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.673,-1.302,-0.239 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.676,-1.297,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.57,-0.92,-0.291 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.617,-1.074,-0.273 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-1.006,-0.319 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.504,-0.999,-0.146 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.517,-0.812,-0.263 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.475,-1.018,-0.108 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.504,-0.999,-0.146 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.098,0.6,-0.249,-0.686,0.058 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.338,-0.847,0.034 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.32,-0.542,-0.134 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.222,-0.412,-0.07 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.186,-0.374,-0.031 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.277,-0.722,0.064 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.3,0.9,-0.008,-0.182,0.152 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.061,-0.035,0.162 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.668,-1.008,-0.4 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.664,-1.037,-0.348 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.699,-1.071,-0.402 -Drift,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.623,-1.022,-0.32 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.659,-1.105,-0.333 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.881,-0.387 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.491,-0.843,-0.222 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.505,-0.784,-0.286 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.462,-0.878,-0.168 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.238,-0.677,0.036 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.309,-0.597,-0.092 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.4,0.1,0.7,-0.211,-0.481,-0.038 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.1,0.7,0.008,-0.179,0.154 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.3,0.098,0.6,0.069,-0.016,0.16 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.792,-1.189,-0.498 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.788,-1.27,-0.4 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.324,-0.458 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.744,-1.229,-0.393 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.783,-1.344,-0.368 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.721,-1.066,-0.457 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.602,-1.098,-0.237 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.617,-0.905,-0.367 -Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.571,-1.116,-0.179 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.4,-0.331,-0.826,0.0 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.407,-0.647,-0.222 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.5,-0.302,-0.554,-0.121 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.066,-0.194,0.034 -Naive,Drift,0.7,0.4,0.902,-0.075,-0.191,0.016 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv index ea2ddae1bb0dc0d6ab85e07c32db8bb6975225dd..78c21db24f4f8e857b24e8134681ce2745d7562b 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,95.91836734693878,31.297845857459595,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,88.77551020408163,30.089978096846835,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.73469387755102,28.869849444319463,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.3061224489796,24.574044447615496,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.79591836734694,25.33590896818273,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.393412727785645,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.54731526015246,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,5.872754086951614,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -AutoARIMA,31.63265306122449,2.7206673781491886,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -AutoTheta,28.57142857142857,2.2840445726052927,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,26.53061224489796,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-16.790213190879342,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.183673469387754,-40.74006375897996,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.0204081632653061,-55.8521959090168,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,95.0,31.297845826674763,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,89.28571428571429,30.08997810079499,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,85.0,28.869849458291053,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,84.28571428571429,28.358976057331542,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.57142857142857,25.573203950705693,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,62.5,25.335908970299936,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,62.5,25.335908970299936,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +TFT,61.42857142857143,21.59101828180743,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.0,24.532719864713304,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.57142857142858,23.393412693458927,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,48.57142857142858,20.158757124750093,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,45.714285714285715,19.233879992772206,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,45.00000000000001,18.807513597537383,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,45.00000000000001,16.989509965321957,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,35.71428571428571,7.694422260326506,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoARIMA,28.57142857142857,3.300627782307375,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoTheta,25.71428571428572,2.2840445944943277,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,24.28571428571429,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,20.0,-16.79021320144407,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.857142857142856,-40.74006367145597,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.4285714285714286,-55.85219582340872,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv index cceb194f5d2e6d057c843289f20af746e68afd41..4e802a7cde1a8d2bdd648d75eabb59600e8f3d93 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.025730182452186,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,42.67646308509806,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,87.75510204081634,42.05186472663197,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.38775510204081,37.208526302389004,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.018777793021975,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061226,37.28267454930213,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,33.55369924549565,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,39.79591836734694,9.230847183253665,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,7.230158345242376,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,24.489795918367346,-26.74094614085021,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-344.79628604120813,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.204081632653061,-146.71797661038454,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.061224489795918,-161.01029312352807,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,96.42857142857144,44.0257301550027,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,92.85714285714286,42.67646308976785,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,87.14285714285714,42.05186473784456,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,84.28571428571429,41.10947919178341,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TFT,67.85714285714285,35.28274979848835,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,67.85714285714285,39.04058286932375,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,63.21428571428572,37.28267455060899,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,63.21428571428572,37.28267455060899,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.14285714285715,36.53371858952617,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,59.285714285714285,34.81362887689631,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,52.142857142857146,28.352379402273474,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,50.0,33.55369921291073,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.42857142857142,12.567557563101495,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +CatBoost,33.57142857142858,18.14162293295429,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,32.85714285714286,18.571486122225835,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,32.14285714285714,5.668302598674924,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +Seasonal Naive,23.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,21.428571428571427,-26.740946175062753,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,14.285714285714285,-344.79628797747506,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.142857142857142,-146.7179766143382,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.142857142857143,-161.010293113985,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 4b36d23a0364583253f8c3e79d747a2e3635e0af..ce603aed6b0156039962cea9d452936b3195b9b6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,31.42661419654642,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,87.75510204081633,30.13802811893269,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.61224489795919,28.669799374404302,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.36734693877551,25.6785844710001,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.81632653061223,25.18849853851497,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.3061224489796,25.90099075182256,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,62.24489795918367,23.330206039824308,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,36.734693877551024,4.641393336578314,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -AutoARIMA,35.71428571428572,2.3947580894125298,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,27.55102040816326,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.510204081632654,0.0437412996646791,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,21.428571428571423,-23.08073844288401,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.183673469387754,-43.56382513496191,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,1.0204081632653061,-58.78908483912755,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.28571428571428,31.4266145251638,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,89.28571428571429,30.138028587482914,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,84.28571428571429,28.54102491089481,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,78.57142857142857,28.6697990451958,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.57142857142858,25.92723519256259,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +TFT,63.57142857142857,22.688998509483994,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.857142857142875,25.32355760868511,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,61.78571428571429,25.18849985695557,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.78571428571429,25.18849985695557,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,56.42857142857143,23.330206407241285,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,55.00000000000001,21.081187839834037,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,46.428571428571445,16.97148442691696,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,45.714285714285715,19.108828334469262,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,44.28571428571429,19.415152538379978,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,36.42857142857142,6.5098083173125705,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +AutoARIMA,31.428571428571434,2.9139047191151235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +Seasonal Naive,24.28571428571429,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,22.14285714285714,0.04374386375031181,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,18.571428571428573,-23.08073712658869,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.857142857142856,-43.56382539762269,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,1.4285714285714286,-58.78908533558298,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 4175c9cd517194a3be14d018d7ed81295c4261ed..f166e971a547a5ea5b2a5abc6f0fcbd013195c53 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,96.93877551020408,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3598705023717949,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,91.83673469387756,43.233433897648524,0.0,1.0527405814102564,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.6938775510204,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.3347885198142415,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.40816326530613,38.56288334540934,0.0,94.13752358266667,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2168154292307692,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.83673469387756,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.2480439729721367,1.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.3265306122449,39.79490314550572,0.0,33.045400127948724,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.97959183673469,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.81632653061225,9.557478558677035,0.0,63.84026180566668,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Stat. Ensemble,35.71428571428572,5.698092718548208,0.0,158.466313377,0.0,28.57142857142857 -Seasonal Naive,28.57142857142857,0.0,0.0,0.18045887173076924,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.46938775510204,-35.07795159739386,0.0,2.5900771086666667,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,15.306122448979592,-351.4556695211341,0.0,7.459143566346153,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.204081632653061,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.17391189775641025,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.061224489795918,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1784365896153846,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,95.00000000000001,44.54705190137261,0.0,0.3612539066666667,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,92.14285714285715,43.23343389055629,0.0,1.0402703727564104,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,83.57142857142857,42.41994460150037,0.0,0.34079166541795664,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,82.85714285714286,41.75327825678771,0.0,1.8156494689102565,0.0,0.0 +TFT,70.71428571428572,36.840744132528904,235.31247926551285,0.31370569066666665,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,68.57142857142857,39.810526410008265,0.0,32.678425597307694,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.00000000000001,37.74075942414697,0.0,157.00341927416665,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,63.57142857142858,36.14199113093005,467.93394356724366,1.364175630448718,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,63.21428571428572,37.73183131937476,0.0,0.2157764139102564,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,63.21428571428572,37.73183131937476,0.0,2.231891133374613,1.0,0.0 +PatchTST,49.999999999999986,28.980793211199895,225.99726746077397,0.38466677993589743,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,49.28571428571428,34.17893470020018,0.0,7.825935737058823,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.142857142857146,12.839232215840235,0.0,166.32244655789742,0.0,14.285714285714285 +CatBoost,34.285714285714285,19.204492596603718,21.985520585705128,0.26383776833333333,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,32.85714285714286,19.51045461394707,2.110697158974359,0.21163459766666667,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,30.0,3.9294085240204057,0.0,226.8116654464487,0.0,14.285714285714285 +Seasonal Naive,24.28571428571428,0.0,0.0,0.17224587897435897,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,20.71428571428571,-35.07795159983096,0.0,2.6991318023333335,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,14.285714285714285,-351.4556695151647,0.0,7.4220258999999995,0.0,0.0 +Naive,7.142857142857142,-144.85036530396843,0.0,0.193622721474359,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.142857142857143,-159.03481525283004,0.0,0.1885455092948718,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv index 579bf81f394c68737063aa6bd2234bffe7831925..6b6f36060d61ab2f8be74eb26d39fba698bf3b73 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.017,-0.024,0.061 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.034,0.009,0.076 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.049,0.126 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.041,0.003,0.083 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.027,0.265 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.14 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.13 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.09,0.05,0.128 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.103,0.061,0.146 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.03,0.141 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.353 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.204,0.364 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.185,0.384 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.14,0.052,0.228 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.172,0.064,0.287 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.093,0.204 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.154,0.087,0.216 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.172,0.327 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.233,0.391 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.237,0.543 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.402,0.614 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.451,0.653 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.018,-0.065,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.017,-0.021,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.04,0.109 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.024,0.01,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,0.007,0.239 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.117 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.113 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.041,0.11 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.048,0.127 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.061,-0.003,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.15,0.359 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.184,0.367 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.17,0.391 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.124,0.041,0.194 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.068,0.25 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.085,0.179 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.084,0.192 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.15,0.334 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.39 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.219,0.542 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.37,0.621 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.43,0.659 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.035,-0.082,-0.009 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.017,-0.054,0.02 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.02,0.093 +TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.022,0.044 +TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.093,-0.014,0.239 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.044,0.016,0.075 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.014,0.095 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.024,0.087 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.071,0.027,0.116 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.016,0.076 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.144,0.332 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.179,0.342 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.155,0.369 +TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.041,0.174 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.143,0.053,0.243 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.119,0.045,0.186 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.124,0.052,0.194 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.138,0.31 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.214,0.356 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.205,0.532 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.375,0.603 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.435,0.643 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.144,-0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.122,-0.042 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.102,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.015,-0.02,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.013,-0.076,0.044 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.109,0.286 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.148,0.295 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.128,0.32 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.154,0.321 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.174,0.502 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.328,0.578 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.398,0.621 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.043,-0.09,-0.003 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.025,-0.039,-0.01 +FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.046,0.022 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.086,-0.018,0.218 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.037,-0.027,0.09 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,0.002,0.079 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.051,0.026,0.083 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.032,0.097 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.103,0.016,0.176 +FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.045,0.232 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.057,0.162 +FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.058,0.171 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.132,0.31 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.193,0.366 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.36,-0.027 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.122,-0.315,-0.008 +TFT,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.102,-0.314,0.014 +TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.094,-0.279,0.017 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.054,-0.283,0.085 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.05,-0.267,0.086 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.039,-0.214,0.071 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.024,-0.166,0.073 +TFT,DeepAR,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.018,-0.146,0.144 +TFT,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.055,-0.018,0.143 +TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.029,-0.096,0.119 +TFT,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.034,-0.08,0.124 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.151,-0.073,0.305 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.216,0.01,0.356 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.083,-0.163,-0.031 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.133,0.003 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.046,-0.081,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.039,-0.099,0.026 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.051,-0.093,0.221 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.045,0.069 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.028,-0.042,0.098 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.068,0.005,0.126 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.103,0.011,0.223 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.078,-0.027,0.17 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.083,-0.02,0.175 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.194,0.083,0.282 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.189,0.319 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.07,0.045 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.045,0.059 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.065,-0.038,0.147 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.101,-0.023,0.224 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.076,-0.002,0.147 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.08,0.006,0.157 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.105,0.277 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.087,-0.149,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.068,-0.127,-0.022 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.105,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.01,-0.031,0.048 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.086,-0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.048,-0.094,0.21 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.07,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.045,0.059 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.025,-0.024,0.08 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.069,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.113,0.293 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.142,0.307 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.122,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.065,-0.038,0.147 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.101,-0.023,0.224 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.076,-0.002,0.147 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.08,0.006,0.157 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.105,0.277 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.16,0.33 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.168,0.512 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.333,0.589 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.404,0.63 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.098,-0.147,-0.053 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.124,-0.042 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.096,-0.025 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.053,-0.09,-0.026 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.038,-0.077,0.177 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.074,0.043 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.062,0.043 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.062,0.043 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.015,-0.021,0.051 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.055,-0.033,0.139 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.091,-0.01,0.198 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.066,-0.012,0.13 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.071,-0.015,0.14 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.097,0.259 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.162,0.319 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.115,-0.171,-0.065 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.096,-0.145,-0.05 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.077,-0.131,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.016,-0.057,0.02 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.108,-0.033 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.023,-0.079,0.143 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.029,-0.109,0.04 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.026,-0.087,0.023 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.015,-0.054,0.02 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.029,-0.108,0.041 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.186,0.072,0.282 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.123,0.291 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.123,0.313 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.041,-0.049,0.129 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.077,-0.018,0.169 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.052,-0.007,0.108 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.007,0.113 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,0.067,0.258 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.136,0.317 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.18,0.475 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.308,0.575 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.38,0.616 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.164,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.065,-0.134,0.003 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.082,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.013,-0.046,0.07 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.048,0.065 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.028,-0.043,0.098 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.209,0.098,0.307 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.235,0.131,0.313 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.238,0.103,0.343 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.188,0.319 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.363,0.156,0.515 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.356,0.581 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.417,0.623 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.37,-0.546,-0.213 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.561,-0.177 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.497,-0.169 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.401,-0.122 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.261,-0.415,-0.127 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.229,-0.392,-0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.264,-0.443,-0.109 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.295,-0.054 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.142,-0.24,-0.043 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.21,-0.043 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.114,-0.214,-0.017 +DeepAR,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.018,-0.169,0.127 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.073,-0.144,-0.005 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.069,-0.172,0.036 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.069,-0.172,0.036 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.058,-0.161,0.032 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.042,-0.148,0.047 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.718,0.038,-0.028,0.124 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.102,0.11 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.017,-0.085,0.111 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.135,-0.035,0.28 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.202,0.094,0.302 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.208,-0.402,-0.069 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.334,-0.073 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.167,-0.321,-0.056 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.303,-0.047 +PatchTST,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.059,-0.167,0.018 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.115,-0.287,-0.011 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.112,-0.289,0.022 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.112,-0.289,0.022 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.1,-0.246,0.01 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.084,-0.203,0.018 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.571,0.282,1.0,-0.04,-0.142,0.028 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.028,-0.148,0.069 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.022,-0.126,0.062 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.101,-0.123,0.266 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.001,0.305 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.176,-0.257,-0.102 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.155,-0.218,-0.092 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.135,-0.228,-0.047 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.193,-0.061 +LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.03,-0.135,0.088 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.085,-0.205,0.026 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.082,-0.173,0.002 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.082,-0.173,0.002 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.07,-0.15,0.012 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.054,-0.121,0.007 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.123,0.093 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.027,-0.074,0.129 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.005,-0.015,0.025 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.125,-0.02,0.25 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.192,0.04,0.318 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.182,-0.276,-0.095 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.238,-0.092 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.141,-0.241,-0.055 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.207,-0.062 +CatBoost,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.035,-0.142,0.074 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.091,-0.212,0.02 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.087,-0.187,-0.006 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.087,-0.187,-0.006 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.076,-0.163,0.015 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.128,0.007 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.017,-0.124,0.078 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.022,-0.067,0.112 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.005,-0.026,0.015 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.12,-0.041,0.257 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.188,0.037,0.318 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.487,-0.207 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.501,-0.176 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.45,-0.161 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.288,-0.45,-0.152 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.177,-0.438,0.068 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.24,-0.393,-0.09 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.384,-0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.384,-0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.35,-0.107 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.348,-0.072 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.156,-0.389,0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.112,-0.363,0.109 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.143,-0.333,0.019 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.137,-0.346,0.039 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.032,-0.002,0.079 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.037,-0.085,0.148 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.059,-0.038,0.141 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.194,0.026,0.393 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.331,0.172,0.461 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.251,0.517 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.572,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.581,-0.225 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.519,-0.218 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.418,-0.174 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.41,-0.14 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.307,-0.455,-0.15 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.033,-0.085,0.002 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.004,-0.104,0.098 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.214,0.857,0.027,-0.063,0.098 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.167,-0.0,0.353 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.141,0.448 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.376,0.227,0.503 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.624,-0.227 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.643,-0.205 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.586,-0.184 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.47,-0.147 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.52,-0.138 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.456,-0.14 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.312,-0.523,-0.115 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.038,-0.173,0.079 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.004,-0.109,0.094 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.023,-0.109,0.143 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.163,0.016,0.312 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.306,0.133,0.424 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.233,0.477 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.077,-0.019,0.152 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.456,-0.641,-0.304 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.639,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.554,-0.272 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.474,-0.182 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.396,-0.577,-0.238 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.275,-0.552,-0.01 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.468,-0.232 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.492,-0.191 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.469,-0.194 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.465,-0.157 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.468,-0.232 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.062,-0.164,0.036 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.429,0.143,0.786,-0.028,-0.109,0.059 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.023,-0.167,0.098 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.252,-0.432,-0.104 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.439,0.001 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.238,-0.466,-0.042 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.232,-0.467,-0.038 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.083,-0.179,0.019 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.144,-0.08,0.347 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.162,0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.358,0.233,0.467 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.7,-1.189,-0.31 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-1.186,-0.281 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.642,-1.135,-0.258 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-1.007,-0.211 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-1.05,-0.201 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.905,-0.219 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.569,-1.06,-0.185 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.241,-0.648,-0.027 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.201,-0.545,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.195,-0.452,-0.016 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.168,-0.531,0.074 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.204,0.396 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.251,-0.069,0.449 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.592,-0.672 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.641,-0.586 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.979,-1.521,-0.601 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.866,-1.37,-0.488 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.885,-1.435,-0.499 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.837,-1.355,-0.444 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.89,-1.385,-0.552 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.495,-0.856,-0.207 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.811,-0.164 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.44,-0.736,-0.153 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.689,-0.193 -Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.205,-0.655,0.169 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.063,0.13 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.88,-0.82 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.229,-1.932,-0.755 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.191,-1.804,-0.769 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.066,-1.636,-0.662 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.702,-0.678 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.034,-1.602,-0.613 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.093,-1.654,-0.714 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.07,-0.335 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.602,-1.01,-0.294 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.913,-0.303 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.877,-0.304 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.334,-0.816,0.065 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.149,-0.068 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv index 42171efdf26c4d5ed45583c455a0621643dd36ce..b612eb1390a5b7205b3c70a740b99a8781bd6a2e 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.024,-0.013,0.065 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.034,0.012,0.07 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.062,0.153 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.138 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.05,0.013,0.09 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.135,0.036,0.278 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.044,0.137 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.108,0.053,0.172 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.171 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.056,0.225 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.069,0.379 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.126,0.193 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.26,0.478 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.273,0.489 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.246,0.436 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.26,0.368 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.313,0.261,0.362 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.347,0.521 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.558,0.343,0.711 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.86,0.51,0.958 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.719,0.816 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.732,0.829 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.069,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.028,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.087,0.05,0.119 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.016,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.114,0.011,0.253 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.005,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.086,0.044,0.139 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.142 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.121,0.027,0.196 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.057,0.354 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.137,0.109,0.169 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.245,0.471 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.255,0.481 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.344,0.235,0.424 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.252,0.344 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.251,0.335 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.314,0.522 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.33,0.709 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.856,0.492,0.957 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.709,0.815 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.724,0.826 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.035,-0.076,-0.012 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.044,0.027 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,0.027,0.129 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.05,0.03,0.074 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 +TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.016,-0.011,0.051 +TiRex,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.105,0.005,0.253 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.049,0.029,0.073 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.024,0.15 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.087,0.029,0.145 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.111,0.039,0.178 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.056,0.356 TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.09,0.167 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.233,0.466 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.24,0.476 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.221,0.422 +TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.229,0.35 +TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.222,0.346 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.325,0.506 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.317,0.701 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.855,0.486,0.957 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.704,0.812 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.717,0.824 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.122,-0.181,-0.067 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.095,-0.135,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.084,-0.147,-0.028 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.03,-0.107,0.041 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.001,-0.064,0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.032,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.199,0.416 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.209,0.425 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.269,0.467 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.278,0.671 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.463,0.955 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.691,0.79 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.759,0.706,0.803 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.16,-0.046 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.124,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.08,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.029,-0.042,0.096 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.052,-0.099,-0.013 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.027,-0.039,-0.016 +FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.016,-0.053,0.01 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.09,-0.02,0.235 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.034,-0.017,0.078 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.021,0.114 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.061,0.021,0.114 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.072,0.027,0.116 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,0.005,0.175 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.178,0.029,0.338 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.084,0.143 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.326,0.221,0.402 +FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.224,0.33 +FlowState,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.222,0.323 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.301,0.504 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.156,-0.385,-0.038 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.129,-0.339,-0.011 +TFT,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.117,-0.339,-0.005 +TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.099,-0.307,0.019 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.062,-0.283,0.066 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.032,-0.249,0.122 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.032,-0.249,0.122 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.02,-0.156,0.074 +TFT,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.007,-0.157,0.129 +TFT,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.097,0.031,0.172 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.026,-0.128,0.123 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,0.086,0.398 +TFT,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.209,0.104,0.29 +TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.205,0.093,0.288 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.353,0.219,0.471 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.159,-0.046 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.063,-0.123,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.052,-0.079,-0.03 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.035,-0.085,0.017 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.058,-0.071,0.221 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.082,0.022,0.136 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.328,0.187,0.44 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.343,0.196,0.453 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.028,-0.04,0.11 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.039,-0.039,0.113 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.065,0.002,0.121 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.149,0.013,0.325 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.083,0.022,0.137 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.303,0.17,0.399 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.171,0.326 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.161,0.323 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.294,0.473 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.277,0.683 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.849,0.443,0.955 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.683,0.804 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.817 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.001,-0.066,0.06 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.028,-0.123,0.039 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.129,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.031,-0.138,0.199 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.029,-0.124,0.038 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.012,-0.077,0.088 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.038,-0.102,0.142 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.125,-0.07,0.309 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.196,0.404 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.204,0.416 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.173,0.358 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.171,0.299 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.167,0.29 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.282,0.672 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.437,0.955 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.678,0.799 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.695,0.81 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.12,-0.208,-0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.094,-0.161,-0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.176,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.065,-0.129,-0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.031,-0.138,0.199 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.029,-0.124,0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.012,-0.077,0.088 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.038,-0.102,0.142 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.125,-0.07,0.309 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.056,-0.0,0.102 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.173,0.358 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.171,0.299 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.167,0.29 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.248,0.474 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.206,-0.07 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.107,-0.165,-0.052 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.095,-0.17,-0.03 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.078,-0.131,-0.028 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.019,-0.08,0.135 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.041,-0.127,0.037 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.096,0.072 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.096,0.072 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.026,-0.075,0.123 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.114,-0.029,0.261 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.045,0.011,0.085 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.176,0.365 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.159,0.285 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.16,0.277 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.365,0.268,0.459 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.291,-0.059 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.137,-0.243,-0.028 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.125,-0.216,-0.041 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.107,-0.212,-0.005 +DeepAR,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.007,-0.148,0.136 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.069,-0.138,-0.002 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.039,-0.166,0.093 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.039,-0.166,0.093 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.027,-0.141,0.069 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.09,-0.02,0.249 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.019,-0.081,0.107 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.254,0.068,0.388 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.204,0.11,0.287 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.199,0.1,0.286 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.232,0.448 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.28,-0.61,-0.074 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.548,-0.06 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.236,-0.553,-0.059 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.217,-0.51,-0.029 +PatchTST,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.107,-0.208,-0.032 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.175,-0.481,-0.013 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.142,-0.448,0.066 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.142,-0.448,0.066 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.129,-0.354,0.028 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.099,-0.331,0.019 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.078,-0.315,0.092 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.181,-0.066,0.372 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.125,-0.054,0.249 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.12,-0.076,0.256 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.113,0.428 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.24,-0.145 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.159,-0.203,-0.122 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.147,-0.2,-0.098 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.089,-0.033 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.158,-0.022 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.167,-0.091 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.027,-0.141,0.114 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.09,-0.158,-0.023 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.059,-0.113,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.047,-0.092,-0.011 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.019,-0.12,0.075 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.073,-0.101,0.24 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.146,0.375 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.156,0.39 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.24,0.125,0.325 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.135,0.234 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.134,0.229 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.229,0.428 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.476,0.241,0.651 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.84,0.419,0.954 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.671,0.779 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.688,0.793 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.622,-0.916,-0.35 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.889,-0.325 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.871,-0.303 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.712,-0.248 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.488,-0.784,-0.23 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.678,-0.244 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.6,-0.171 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.772,-0.326 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.525,-0.736,-0.308 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.509,-0.729,-0.283 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.673,-0.284 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-0.66,-0.094 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.434,-0.664,-0.205 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.394,-0.557,-0.21 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.394,-0.557,-0.21 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.378,-0.576,-0.214 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.341,-0.635,-0.073 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.22,-0.592,0.062 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.316,-0.481,-0.143 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.022,0.004,0.038 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.092,-0.059,0.197 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.284,0.084,0.465 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.253,0.937 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.632,0.558,0.691 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.58,0.71 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.956,-0.376 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.927,-0.342 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.908,-0.316 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.74,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.521,-0.829,-0.243 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.479,-0.713,-0.256 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.639,-0.185 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.022,-0.039,-0.004 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.072,-0.096,0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.268,0.067,0.446 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.245,0.936 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.624,0.549,0.68 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.572,0.701 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.068,-0.26,0.11 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.074,-0.253,0.102 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.126,-0.02,0.223 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.462,-0.581,-0.352 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.428,-0.524,-0.337 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.413,-0.539,-0.297 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.39,-0.492,-0.289 +CatBoost,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.265,-0.409,-0.116 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.484,-0.206 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.426,-0.206 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.426,-0.206 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.29,-0.399,-0.189 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.256,-0.402,-0.124 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.143,-0.332,0.051 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.305,-0.156 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.064,-0.124,0.207 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.005,-0.026,0.015 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.181,0.004,0.329 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.455,-0.566,-0.354 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.421,-0.503,-0.335 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.53,-0.286 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.478,-0.285 +LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.258,-0.405,-0.103 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.478,-0.192 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.408,-0.201 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.408,-0.201 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.383,-0.19 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.249,-0.401,-0.111 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.137,-0.344,0.07 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.298,-0.155 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.069,-0.114,0.202 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.005,-0.015,0.025 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.186,0.007,0.338 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.787,-1.087,-0.531 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.744,-1.092,-0.458 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.023,-0.482 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.876,-0.368 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.896,-0.416 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.698,-1.017,-0.431 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.545,-0.89,-0.28 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.64,-0.897,-0.416 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-0.902,-0.329 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.576,-0.849,-0.366 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.811,-0.303 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.747,-0.128 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.749,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.102,-0.245,0.056 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.078,-0.228,0.088 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.144,-0.286,0.02 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.222,-0.489,-0.004 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.228,-0.511,-0.007 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.211,-0.037,0.4 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.775,0.199,0.936 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.537,0.639 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.555,0.664 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.264,-2.458,-0.521 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.211,-2.434,-0.492 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.187,-2.346,-0.464 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.018,-2.041,-0.385 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-2.15,-0.384 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.021,-2.051,-0.393 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.907,-1.864,-0.318 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.396,-0.868,-0.091 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.366,-0.806,-0.072 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.267,-0.667,0.036 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.722,0.013,0.91 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.336,0.597 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.375,0.62 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.136,-22.624,-1.041 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.961,-22.389,-0.969 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.913,-22.04,-0.946 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.568,-21.334,-0.862 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.605,-21.234,-0.797 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.44,-21.318,-0.776 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.248,-20.643,-0.722 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.735,-14.953,-0.339 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-14.613,-0.324 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.448,-14.656,-0.248 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.591,-10.089,-0.013 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.129,-7.081,0.442 -AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.041,-6.801,0.465 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.408,-4.434,-2.563 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.304,-4.393,-2.438 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.258,-4.322,-2.38 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.929,-3.762,-2.238 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.046,-4.115,-2.158 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.934,-3.963,-2.108 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.713,-3.518,-2.044 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.718,-2.232,-1.263 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.659,-2.123,-1.216 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.467,-1.772,-1.16 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.947,-1.479,-0.505 -Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.53,-0.793,0.876 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.663,-4.836,-2.73 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.553,-4.74,-2.617 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.504,-4.692,-2.529 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.157,-4.067,-2.401 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.28,-4.461,-2.302 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.162,-4.265,-2.276 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.928,-3.827,-2.2 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.448,-1.382 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-2.34,-1.336 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-1.975,-1.248 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.059,-1.629,-0.6 -Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.51,-0.87,0.872 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 7b073f0bd9bbbaf6cdbe78e76ec2d1b42f4fbd3a..fd3c94a1b4a51dfb85c09b39bb136cda322ca3a6 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.018,-0.024,0.065 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.04,0.004,0.081 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.011,0.084 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.077,0.047,0.108 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.113,0.018,0.255 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.03,0.134 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.082,0.049,0.113 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.038,0.134 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.03,0.134 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.106,0.06,0.154 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.182,0.366 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.206,0.369 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.131,0.048,0.222 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.062,0.296 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.152,0.084,0.214 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.09,0.203 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.178,0.34 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.232,0.391 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.201,0.401 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.261,0.591 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.402,0.632 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.454,0.667 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.019,-0.069,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.022,0.007,0.037 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.021,-0.017,0.056 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.06,0.024,0.095 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.096,-0.01,0.224 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.057,-0.003,0.111 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.035,0.097 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.066,0.024,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.112 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.089,0.047,0.134 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.157,0.371 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.284,0.184,0.374 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.115,0.041,0.183 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.067,0.258 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.136,0.078,0.19 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.081,0.178 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.155,0.341 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.204,0.392 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.189,0.401 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.239,0.579 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.513,0.375,0.635 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.56,0.431,0.67 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.042,-0.088,-0.004 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.023,-0.039,-0.007 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.002,-0.043,0.031 +FlowState,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.076,-0.033,0.205 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.035,-0.029,0.088 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.023,0.067 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.045,0.007,0.088 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.034,0.104 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.095,0.01,0.169 +FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.042,0.243 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.117,0.056,0.171 +FlowState,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.06,0.16 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.143,0.321 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.189,0.371 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.091,-0.011 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.021,-0.059,0.016 +TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.002,-0.031,0.041 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.04,-0.005,0.083 +TiRex,TFT,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.077,-0.044,0.226 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.012,0.063 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.045,0.01,0.078 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.047,0.006,0.101 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.037,0.013,0.064 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.07,0.022,0.12 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.153,0.343 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.176,0.345 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.096,0.033,0.157 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.141,0.051,0.248 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.118,0.043,0.189 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.115,0.041,0.182 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.146,0.318 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.21,0.357 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.173,0.377 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.225,0.575 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.378,0.619 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.656 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.084,-0.12,-0.049 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.064,-0.105,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.042,-0.09,0.005 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.127,-0.342,-0.018 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.107,-0.289,0.01 +TFT,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.082,-0.258,0.032 +TFT,TiRex,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.084,-0.292,0.042 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.044,-0.269,0.099 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.035,-0.202,0.071 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.033,-0.24,0.101 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.008,-0.139,0.08 +TFT,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.02,-0.136,0.153 +TFT,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.069,0.002,0.157 +TFT,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.044,-0.072,0.132 +TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.041,-0.078,0.126 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.173,-0.047,0.327 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.227,0.023,0.368 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.155,-0.031 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.06,-0.125,0.003 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.037,-0.096,0.028 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.038,-0.067,-0.013 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.042,-0.11,0.212 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.008,-0.055,0.066 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.036,0.105 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.061,0.002,0.119 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.108,0.013,0.235 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.084,-0.014,0.172 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.081,-0.02,0.168 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.208,0.105,0.297 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.186,0.328 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.089,-0.128,-0.052 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.108,-0.036 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.072,-0.023 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.047,-0.085,-0.01 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.034,-0.077,0.168 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.008,-0.071,0.052 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.007,-0.034,0.048 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.003,-0.074,0.064 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.031,-0.004,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.126,0.307 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.155,0.311 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.158,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.161,0.341 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.208,0.548 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.34,0.599 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.409,0.638 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.002,-0.05,0.054 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.026,-0.003,0.06 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.054,-0.032,0.137 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.101,-0.002,0.212 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.077,-0.003,0.142 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.073,0.006,0.131 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.201,0.111,0.282 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.163,0.331 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.083,0.042 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.052,-0.051,0.139 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.099,-0.026,0.23 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.075,0.003,0.151 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.072,-0.001,0.143 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.116,0.287 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.155,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.071,-0.134,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.047,-0.096,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.049,-0.112,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.007,-0.051,0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.032,-0.112,0.193 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.083,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.002,-0.057,0.047 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.01,-0.082,0.042 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.024,-0.026,0.082 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.121,0.303 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.145,0.312 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.052,-0.051,0.139 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.099,-0.026,0.23 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.075,0.003,0.151 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.072,-0.001,0.143 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.116,0.287 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.252,0.148,0.333 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.14,0.351 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.19,0.557 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.328,0.604 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.406,0.64 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.155,-0.031 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.061,-0.126,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.039,-0.068,-0.013 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.003,-0.068,0.069 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.01,-0.044,0.076 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.034,-0.037,0.105 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.223,0.115,0.32 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.241,0.135,0.323 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.186,0.327 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.134,0.355 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.398,0.183,0.558 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.601 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.424,0.639 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.118,-0.182,-0.064 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.155,-0.049 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.116,-0.035 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.075,-0.137,-0.022 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.032,-0.076,0.004 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.008,-0.087,0.122 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.117,0.035 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.027,-0.064,0.003 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,-0.025,-0.089,0.026 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.035,-0.117,0.036 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.196,0.075,0.293 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.214,0.116,0.296 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.028,-0.056,0.119 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.077,-0.02,0.174 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.052,-0.014,0.109 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.049,-0.009,0.105 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.18,0.071,0.27 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.129,0.32 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.138,0.322 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.2,0.517 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.307,0.593 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.382,0.63 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.391,-0.576,-0.223 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.365,-0.59,-0.186 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.521,-0.181 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.442,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.434,-0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.287,-0.47,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.244,-0.415,-0.081 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.151,-0.285,-0.051 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.13,-0.224,-0.043 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.104,-0.204,-0.01 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.106,-0.186,-0.034 +DeepAR,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.021,-0.18,0.12 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.065,-0.135,-0.002 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.057,-0.159,0.031 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.055,-0.162,0.048 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.055,-0.162,0.048 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.029,-0.136,0.053 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.718,0.049,-0.024,0.144 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.079,0.111 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.021,-0.092,0.109 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.156,0.001,0.294 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.103,0.314 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.211,-0.42,-0.066 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.188,-0.348,-0.071 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.32,-0.044 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.164,-0.331,-0.054 +PatchTST,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.074,-0.187,-0.002 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.121,-0.306,-0.013 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.112,-0.269,0.002 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.11,-0.299,0.025 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.11,-0.299,0.025 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.083,-0.21,0.019 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.571,0.282,1.0,-0.052,-0.168,0.023 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.026,-0.149,0.068 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.571,0.286,0.857,-0.03,-0.165,0.071 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.112,-0.123,0.276 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.17,-0.015,0.309 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.18,-0.272,-0.092 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.158,-0.234,-0.084 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.132,-0.206,-0.059 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.134,-0.234,-0.045 +CatBoost,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.046,-0.152,0.067 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.092,-0.208,0.014 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.083,-0.165,0.003 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.081,-0.177,-0.003 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.081,-0.177,-0.003 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.055,-0.123,0.014 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.025,-0.125,0.073 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.026,-0.073,0.13 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.004,-0.023,0.015 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.135,-0.027,0.273 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.191,0.039,0.324 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.255,-0.099 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.216,-0.088 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.191,-0.064 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.13,-0.222,-0.042 +LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.144,0.073 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.088,-0.202,0.019 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.079,-0.151,-0.006 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.077,-0.167,0.001 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.077,-0.167,0.001 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.051,-0.118,0.009 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.021,-0.123,0.084 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.429,0.143,0.714,0.029,-0.077,0.142 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.004,-0.015,0.023 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.138,-0.011,0.265 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.194,0.043,0.323 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.363,-0.516,-0.216 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.338,-0.518,-0.184 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.473,-0.167 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.466,-0.171 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.209,-0.485,0.045 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.262,-0.423,-0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.252,-0.393,-0.125 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.402,-0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.402,-0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.219,-0.37,-0.076 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.185,-0.417,-0.001 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.126,-0.382,0.11 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.156,-0.376,0.027 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.16,-0.361,0.011 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.003,0.057 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.046,-0.053,0.122 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.046,-0.075,0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,0.031,0.454 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.169,0.472 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.251,0.523 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.586,-0.259 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.397,-0.599,-0.225 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.527,-0.214 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.452,-0.183 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.453,-0.17 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.317,-0.478,-0.156 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.273,-0.421,-0.131 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.06,0.003 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.024,-0.078,0.095 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.024,-0.083,0.116 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.207,0.025,0.416 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.141,0.464 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.232,0.514 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.065,-0.036,0.134 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.643,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.644,-0.257 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.59,-0.233 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.555,-0.267 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.346,-0.51,-0.187 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.293,-0.583,-0.023 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.487,-0.228 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.495,-0.195 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.337,-0.499,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.486,-0.228 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.47,-0.149 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.049,-0.139,0.05 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.025,-0.106,0.072 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.267,-0.458,-0.115 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.204,-0.446,0.015 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.236,-0.479,-0.041 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.241,-0.476,-0.045 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.07,-0.154,0.035 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.429,0.0,0.718,-0.0,-0.126,0.117 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,-0.039,0.409 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.168,0.426 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.476 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.67,-0.251 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.67,-0.233 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.605,-0.209 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.517,-0.192 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.542,-0.163 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.549,-0.155 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.476,-0.161 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.048,-0.182,0.07 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.024,-0.132,0.076 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.282,1.0,0.0,-0.132,0.112 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.188,0.007,0.358 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.304,0.124,0.431 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.225,0.483 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.795,-1.442,-0.353 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.377,-0.314 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.355,-0.29 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-1.212,-0.263 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-1.259,-0.234 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.661,-1.263,-0.224 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-1.069,-0.251 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.291,-0.831,-0.032 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.261,-0.713,-0.025 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.693,0.037 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.231,-0.558,-0.007 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.143,-0.329,0.392 -AutoETS,Drift,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.225,-0.164,0.446 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.094,-1.716,-0.672 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.055,-1.74,-0.6 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.625,-0.609 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.494,-0.515 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.919,-1.523,-0.488 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.937,-1.509,-0.564 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.455,-0.443 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.506,-0.892,-0.203 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.866,-0.164 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.742,-0.202 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.436,-0.759,-0.141 -Naive,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.166,-0.644,0.247 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.096,0.059,0.132 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.316,-2.005,-0.833 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.273,-2.03,-0.758 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.905,-0.772 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.137,-1.766,-0.692 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.123,-1.78,-0.683 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.769,-0.735 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.071,-1.702,-0.619 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.665,-1.096,-0.335 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-1.057,-0.301 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.907,-0.322 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.589,-0.934,-0.291 -Drift,AutoETS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.29,-0.804,0.141 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.106,-0.152,-0.063 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv index d8a19f9aad22a4725a1ca441981f6047861bfec6..4ad297b65c64341ab4b4b4ec3add4639be76a64a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_mobility/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.023,-0.013,0.065 Chronos-2,TiRex,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.037,0.014,0.072 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.054,0.147 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.048,0.014,0.086 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.122,0.025,0.267 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.129 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.216 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.058,0.168 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.044,0.13 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.179 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.067,0.383 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.123,0.197 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.263,0.484 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.412,0.284,0.5 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.247,0.444 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.255,0.366 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.26,0.36 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.445,0.347,0.528 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.369,0.738 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.861,0.529,0.958 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.715,0.819 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.729,0.831 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.024,-0.07,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.014,-0.025,0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.037,0.111 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.025,0.015,0.036 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.101,-0.006,0.24 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.004,0.105 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.111,0.022,0.187 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.042,0.134 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.057,0.005,0.106 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.088,0.043,0.149 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.054,0.359 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.104,0.173 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.245,0.478 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.27,0.494 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.237,0.43 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.247,0.342 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.249,0.333 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.315,0.529 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.351,0.739 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.858,0.504,0.958 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.703,0.819 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.718,0.829 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.078,-0.015 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.014,-0.049,0.024 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.063,0.005,0.121 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 +TiRex,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.016,0.046 +TiRex,TFT,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.023,0.237 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.043,0.026,0.064 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.098,0.032,0.162 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.075,0.013,0.139 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.044,0.026,0.064 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.075,0.017,0.156 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.052,0.357 TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.169 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.233,0.47 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.254,0.486 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.218,0.429 +TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.221,0.347 +TiRex,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.217,0.342 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.325,0.511 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.574,0.347,0.73 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.857,0.501,0.957 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.699,0.814 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.71,0.827 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.108,-0.173,-0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.125,-0.038 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.067,-0.138,-0.005 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.05,-0.094,-0.014 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.037,-0.015 +FlowState,TiRex,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.012,-0.049,0.016 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TFT,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.078,-0.035,0.221 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.032,-0.019,0.076 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.088,-0.002,0.167 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.021,0.112 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.123 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.123 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.18,0.027,0.345 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.115,0.081,0.148 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.225,0.413 +FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.223,0.327 +FlowState,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.221,0.321 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.304,0.514 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.139,-0.364,-0.026 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.113,-0.315,0.006 +TFT,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.097,-0.311,0.022 +TFT,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.084,-0.283,0.034 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.571,0.282,0.857,-0.049,-0.268,0.085 +TFT,DeepAR,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.011,-0.149,0.139 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.142,0.075 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.221,0.136 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.714,0.429,1.0,-0.014,-0.221,0.136 +TFT,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.111,0.037,0.199 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.04,-0.101,0.132 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.275,0.102,0.414 +TFT,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.218,0.115,0.296 +TFT,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.215,0.104,0.294 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.241,0.486 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.149,-0.046 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.06,-0.118,-0.004 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.045,-0.068,-0.027 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.033,-0.083,0.019 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.718,0.047,-0.093,0.211 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.057,-0.003,0.114 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.033,-0.05,0.11 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.037,0.12 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.037,0.12 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.152,0.015,0.332 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.086,0.022,0.142 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.309,0.177,0.408 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.172,0.326 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.165,0.322 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.296,0.483 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.152,-0.275,-0.053 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.125,-0.231,-0.023 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.109,-0.193,-0.033 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.096,-0.2,0.002 +DeepAR,TFT,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.011,-0.162,0.13 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.061,-0.128,0.003 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,-0.026,-0.144,0.07 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.026,-0.155,0.105 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.026,-0.155,0.105 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.101,-0.011,0.261 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.03,-0.076,0.115 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.267,0.087,0.403 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.21,0.115,0.289 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.207,0.105,0.288 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.239,0.468 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.061 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.154,-0.044 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.081,-0.161,-0.013 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.126,-0.022 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.081,0.124 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.034,-0.124,0.047 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,0.025,-0.075,0.126 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.013,-0.053,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.02,-0.103,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.044,0.094 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.209,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.236,0.448 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.279,0.482 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.314,0.713 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.853,0.488,0.957 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.689,0.798 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.763,0.706,0.81 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.0,-0.087,0.086 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.286,1.0,0.0,-0.087,0.086 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.123,-0.021,0.271 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,0.021,0.093 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.182,0.383 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.167,0.289 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.171,0.281 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.276,0.476 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.014,-0.085,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.14,-0.021 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.158,0.181 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.035,-0.136,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.025,-0.117,0.134 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.0,-0.094,0.08 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.034,-0.136,0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.123,-0.075,0.313 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.2,0.406 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.221,0.428 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.176,0.361 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.167,0.293 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.166,0.286 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.305,0.707 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.846,0.441,0.956 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.672,0.803 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.688,0.814 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.149,-0.046 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.061,-0.118,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.046,-0.068,-0.027 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.02,-0.061,0.093 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.571,0.143,0.861,0.033,-0.038,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.142 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.334,0.191,0.448 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.362,0.222,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.296,0.483 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.554,0.316,0.717 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.852,0.474,0.956 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.754,0.681,0.808 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.768,0.693,0.821 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.218,-0.052 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.097,-0.175,-0.045 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.081,-0.185,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.069,-0.14,-0.021 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,0.014,-0.158,0.181 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.429,0.139,0.857,-0.035,-0.136,0.036 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.025,-0.117,0.134 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.0,0.714,-0.0,-0.094,0.08 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.123,-0.075,0.313 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.054,-0.008,0.102 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.176,0.361 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.167,0.293 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.166,0.286 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.246,0.48 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.62,-0.072 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.56,-0.057 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.555,-0.055 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.219,-0.527,-0.028 +PatchTST,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.124,-0.249,-0.038 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.18,-0.497,-0.015 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.112,-0.353,0.011 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.141,-0.372,0.021 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.141,-0.456,0.07 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.429,0.143,0.857,-0.141,-0.456,0.07 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.571,0.143,1.0,-0.079,-0.325,0.091 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.143,1.0,0.185,-0.072,0.38 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.121,-0.071,0.255 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.118,-0.089,0.255 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.29,0.12,0.434 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.187,-0.246,-0.141 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.209,-0.116 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.143,-0.204,-0.088 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.104,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.13,-0.173,-0.088 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.042,-0.152,0.092 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.094,-0.166,-0.023 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.031,-0.13,0.071 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.102,-0.021 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.093,-0.165,-0.022 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.057,-0.113,0.008 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,0.073,-0.1,0.245 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.272,0.151,0.385 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.173,0.402 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.245,0.13,0.336 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.133,0.232 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.136,0.228 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.232,0.438 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.513,0.269,0.689 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.843,0.442,0.955 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.731,0.666,0.784 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.746,0.682,0.796 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.631,-0.94,-0.357 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.914,-0.324 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.886,-0.304 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.472,-0.745,-0.264 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.452,-0.683,-0.25 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.502,-0.811,-0.236 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.374,-0.625,-0.178 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.799,-0.328 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.754,-0.311 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.752,-0.279 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.703,-0.29 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.38,-0.707,-0.114 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.448,-0.689,-0.215 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.365,-0.676,-0.095 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.621,-0.223 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.566,-0.214 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.566,-0.214 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.429,0.0,0.857,-0.227,-0.612,0.067 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.324,-0.507,-0.149 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.857,0.714,1.0,0.041,0.015,0.069 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.096,-0.069,0.206 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.33,0.113,0.521 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.791,0.274,0.938 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.631,0.546,0.695 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.571,0.713 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.701,-0.999,-0.397 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.976,-0.371 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.638,-0.945,-0.341 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.813,-0.309 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.514,-0.747,-0.284 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.566,-0.87,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.433,-0.671,-0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.286,-0.043,-0.074,-0.015 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,0.929,0.057,-0.109,0.167 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.857,0.571,1.0,0.302,0.084,0.495 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.786,0.256,0.936 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.532,0.676 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.636,0.556,0.696 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.079,-0.283,0.109 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.718,-0.083,-0.275,0.102 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.786,0.5,1.0,0.128,-0.03,0.229 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.457,-0.578,-0.342 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.52,-0.328 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.403,-0.531,-0.283 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.387,-0.486,-0.287 +CatBoost,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.279,-0.421,-0.13 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.483,-0.208 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.265,-0.406,-0.13 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.406,-0.201 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.415,-0.2 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.415,-0.2 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.138,-0.342,0.066 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.302,-0.154 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.073,-0.122,0.221 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.004,-0.023,0.015 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.192,0.01,0.345 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.451,-0.563,-0.351 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.418,-0.499,-0.332 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.521,-0.277 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.474,-0.284 +LightGBM,TFT,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.274,-0.417,-0.116 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.337,-0.474,-0.197 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.26,-0.404,-0.117 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.391,-0.206 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.401,-0.199 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.293,-0.401,-0.199 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.286,0.0,0.714,-0.133,-0.342,0.082 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.295,-0.158 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.571,0.282,0.857,0.077,-0.114,0.216 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.004,-0.015,0.023 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.571,0.286,0.857,0.195,0.012,0.346 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.803,-1.12,-0.532 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.122,-0.461 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.737,-1.043,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.932,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-1.057,-0.436 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.946,-0.318 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.934,-0.421 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.879,-0.314 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.908,-0.381 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.933,-0.421 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.606,-0.925,-0.327 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.408,-0.765,-0.137 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.778,-0.301 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.106,-0.26,0.065 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.286,0.071,0.571,-0.06,-0.2,0.098 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.214,0.0,0.5,-0.147,-0.298,0.03 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.238,-0.526,-0.01 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.429,0.143,0.714,-0.242,-0.529,-0.012 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.714,0.429,1.0,0.26,0.012,0.46 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.714,0.286,1.0,0.778,0.206,0.936 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.53,0.64 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.614,0.55,0.664 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.436,-2.82,-0.586 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.38,-2.827,-0.54 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.346,-2.701,-0.532 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.199,-2.482,-0.457 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-2.408,-0.438 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.244,-2.536,-0.463 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-1.052,-2.216,-0.369 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.494,-1.086,-0.127 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.143,0.0,0.429,-0.432,-0.982,-0.092 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.571,-0.351,-0.851,-0.012 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.571,0.143,0.857,0.709,0.014,0.907 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.276,0.575 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.479,0.316,0.596 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.206,-22.787,-1.121 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.041,-22.595,-1.017 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.978,-22.199,-1.005 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.785,-22.0,-0.955 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.505,-21.538,-0.789 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.741,-21.621,-0.902 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.143,0.0,0.429,-5.386,-21.067,-0.793 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.792,-15.18,-0.376 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-14.743,-0.344 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.286,0.0,0.714,-3.515,-14.714,-0.259 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.429,0.143,0.857,-2.44,-9.777,-0.015 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.172,-7.111,0.408 -AutoETS,Drift,0.571,0.286,1.0,-1.082,-6.896,0.433 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.415,-4.522,-2.508 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.313,-4.533,-2.371 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.252,-4.38,-2.317 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.985,-3.944,-2.212 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.932,-4.07,-2.049 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.067,-4.197,-2.134 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.72,-3.631,-1.992 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.707,-2.284,-1.203 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.596,-2.091,-1.136 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.449,-1.777,-1.126 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.353,-0.382 -Naive,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.54,-0.69,0.877 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.055,0.037,0.073 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.671,-4.925,-2.692 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.563,-4.855,-2.551 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.499,-4.779,-2.453 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.216,-4.258,-2.402 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.16,-4.369,-2.205 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.303,-4.59,-2.253 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.935,-3.9,-2.148 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.864,-2.486,-1.33 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.747,-2.291,-1.255 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.59,-1.972,-1.221 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.918,-1.476,-0.462 -Drift,AutoETS,0.429,0.0,0.714,0.52,-0.765,0.873 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.058,-0.079,-0.038 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv index ea525ad20f89e563a3a015d1dcd3009a50a72830..51e6cf27a9c60f5737602bf9af0b61c2d2a44b7c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,32.667973146499854,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,85.71428571428574,29.26035003209091,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,75.0,28.93605729975306,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.28571428571429,29.39415793791812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,65.71428571428571,27.758201124904257,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.00000000000001,27.39923273556282,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.28571428571426,27.294413131182793,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,17.869279200778998,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -TabPFN-TS,44.28571428571429,23.16876937964092,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,41.42857142857142,21.542038855355507,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.571428571428577,13.898849494465237,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,25.714285714285722,-29.62269544506979,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.0,7.79560161047943,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.85714285714286,4.07870004962435,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,8.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,93.0,32.66797317900995,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,88.00000000000001,29.260350065108376,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,81.0,29.357226912555344,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,80.5,28.93605738519158,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.0,29.394157929053712,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,72.50000000000001,27.399232776718353,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Sundial-Base,72.0,27.294413166287423,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.0,27.802663844137786,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,60.999999999999986,23.420687735560985,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.999999999999986,23.98149756470208,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,53.99999999999999,21.542038924284434,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,41.99999999999999,17.97726241921238,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,33.0,-29.622695283539358,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +TFT,26.000000000000007,11.739357763049185,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +Naive,25.999999999999996,7.795601696116828,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,24.000000000000004,9.449688890714715,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +Drift,20.0,4.078700196776586,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,20.0,4.1721599099919455,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,18.0,4.184526702220593,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,17.0,3.384538751976529,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.000000000000002,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv index b5539aed90e1af1cf3776701f7075e0fa7fa4e6d..e3ebf7d3349dfd0871de6b858decbf549b2e47cc 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.28571428571429,40.14261348186017,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,88.57142857142858,37.438763337724154,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.14285714285715,37.18832201208502,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,75.00000000000001,36.03582794812101,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.85714285714286,34.853090715125255,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -Toto-1.0,67.14285714285715,35.98014019395901,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.999999999999986,32.14384784602691,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,52.85714285714286,30.909915121590082,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,13.94260028599177,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -AutoARIMA,38.57142857142858,17.778704714011372,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,27.142857142857153,-136.42889695356527,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,20.0,-2.8417921456300954,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.85714285714286,-23.56398392435097,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.2857142857142865,-28.213326844738162,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.0,40.14261361598851,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,91.00000000000001,37.43876342889425,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.0,37.188322050437485,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,80.5,36.03582808206656,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,80.0,36.31166826953211,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,74.5,34.85309081790271,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +Toto-1.0,74.0,35.99499337037837,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.0,32.757599647708304,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,61.999999999999986,30.90991527640704,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.999999999999986,17.231323121576647,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,48.0,22.423106139028192,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +TFT,43.00000000000001,18.511138237688506,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,39.0,17.09711611460085,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,34.0,9.609592105853038,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,28.999999999999996,-136.42889638840893,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,24.000000000000004,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.000000000000004,-2.841792105310592,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,19.0,-6.491295800307162,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,19.0,-6.505040508588555,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.0,-23.56398425913284,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.0,-28.21332719128542,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index d34e8c72620be7ccaa9b98a25361344c7398e0b6..81d970905014dc9eadac1fd31d41b2df6cba96db 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.14285714285714,47.03832907322194,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,81.42857142857144,45.265501615714086,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,80.0,45.61982323609455,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.71428571428572,45.23435046646812,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,73.57142857142857,44.27099700478807,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,43.560110598131054,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.14285714285714,41.536751954528484,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.85714285714287,37.25192023085951,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.857142857142854,32.159160649999954,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,41.428571428571445,24.4398588876512,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,32.85714285714286,-7.089562721947629,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Naive,24.28571428571429,25.36480685722543,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,21.428571428571427,2.7732156741662517,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -Drift,12.857142857142856,15.77773764677779,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,10.0,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.00000000000001,47.03832863128653,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,85.00000000000001,45.94421147950074,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,84.00000000000001,45.26550169523424,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,83.0,45.658876884431066,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.0,45.234350223405905,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,77.5,44.270996715968245,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,73.5,43.560110317907345,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,68.0,42.24241790735197,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,55.999999999999986,36.39656206472499,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,53.99999999999998,37.25191993036196,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,47.99999999999998,32.15916008390624,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +TFT,39.0,31.89215730204118,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,38.0,32.26789204762996,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,35.0,-7.089563361203255,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,35.0,30.485156307041137,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,27.000000000000007,-5.351235687949107,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +Naive,24.0,25.364806013828144,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.0,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +Drift,15.0,15.777737575686047,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,13.999999999999998,9.204507505376158,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,12.000000000000002,-21.610796222594896,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv index eed2f91d23116d2a586feab37cd071153220dde3..8d28d81767024495bf992fff39072b87434990fc 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,65.09181820346713,0.0,1.2456354600000001,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.85714285714286,65.02250890387694,0.0,8.168218997380952,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,80.00000000000001,64.38827870406145,0.0,45.24128168595239,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.0,63.90155569021483,0.0,0.5813713669047619,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,75.0,63.277941068455476,0.0,0.47739247904761906,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,72.14285714285714,62.94483721241358,0.0,0.9811087477272727,0.6,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.85714285714283,62.612284025823264,0.0,184.37221231142857,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,48.57142857142857,52.74866339373276,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,42.85714285714287,13.563254966732108,0.0,831.8049798101947,0.0,20.0 -AutoARIMA,40.0,21.289551980691435,0.0,538.7123111100325,0.0,20.0 -AutoETS,25.71428571428572,-162.51813043287368,0.0,12.024019823809525,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,25.71428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.9579890307359307,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,15.714285714285717,-21.431026747836324,0.0,3.7224071347619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.0,-59.16477242087295,0.0,1.274835109047619,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.857142857142857,-65.48141501493944,0.0,1.0766188060606061,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,87.00000000000001,65.46785431424527,0.0,3.96545264,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.99999999999997,65.09181820451573,0.0,1.2412635011904762,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,85.0,65.02250890932473,0.0,8.123959618571428,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.99999999999999,63.901555686088926,0.0,0.5982643197619048,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,82.0,64.33412565306647,0.0,45.546909770000006,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,78.49999999999999,63.27794107878868,0.0,0.48393358404761905,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,76.49999999999999,62.94483721709532,0.0,0.9636899613636363,0.6,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,68.0,62.22591860898127,0.0,289.5137977333333,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,51.99999999999999,52.74866339515212,0.0,8.222455888744589,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,50.99999999999999,56.14683480931129,3313.3185033727273,3.1006886961904763,0.0,0.0 +TFT,46.0,54.31239646459889,4425.985155724524,3.3604472566666668,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,42.00000000000001,53.40506481164482,4186.5014168181815,5.73706040909091,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,42.00000000000001,26.636130811588664,0.0,74.60550639090908,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,41.0,10.0322967065957,0.0,464.32897872499996,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,27.999999999999996,28.559039675458386,101.213129105,2.2554284954545456,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,26.0,0.0,0.0,1.2824682583333336,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,26.0,-162.5181303956725,0.0,12.04727024095238,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,20.0,4.312518151888689,7.8792804414285715,1.6888857054761903,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,19.000000000000004,-21.431026745629268,0.0,3.6892116628571427,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.0,-59.16477242026188,0.0,1.2708901502164502,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.0000000000000004,-65.48141502161853,0.0,1.1961910245238094,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv index 94b6f57952a7e441a67d67a51670154b2993254a..50e258f3d6359ca0241f47e41d03dc1e03f26c1e 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,0.005,0.089 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.047,-0.008,0.1 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.053,0.015,0.087 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.096 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.068,0.024,0.124 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.024,0.118 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.067,0.023,0.124 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.074,0.027,0.116 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.066,0.314 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.076,0.155 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.121,0.066,0.172 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.082,0.138 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.1,0.196 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.121,0.333 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.121,0.232 Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.137,0.781 Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.18,0.35 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.207,0.379 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.222,0.251 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.263,0.388 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.097,-0.005 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.061,0.046 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.016,0.023 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.002,-0.053,0.035 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.021,-0.028,0.066 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.026,0.004,0.054 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.02,-0.028,0.065 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.0,0.055 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.038,0.264 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.058,0.112 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.076,0.021,0.127 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.069,0.038,0.113 TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.098,0.035,0.158 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.103,0.272 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.138,0.103,0.17 TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.08,0.77 TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.143,0.307 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.174,0.336 +TiRex,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.154,0.242 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.222,0.364 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.049,-0.111,0.008 +FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.049,0.058 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.045,0.063 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.036,0.025 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.007,0.071 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.031,0.061 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.028,-0.018,0.084 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.078,0.01,0.136 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.071,0.008,0.13 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.044,0.14 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.089,0.2 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.455,0.085,0.76 +FlowState,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.186,0.282 +FlowState,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.15,0.244 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.19,0.386 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.095,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.024,0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.067,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.006,-0.064,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.034,0.074 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.021,0.0,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.016,-0.035,0.074 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.002,0.045 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.135,0.035,0.262 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.054,0.096 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.072,0.022,0.115 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.04,0.092 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.038,0.147 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.106,0.27 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.106,0.161 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.452,0.092,0.768 Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.131,0.311 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.165,0.342 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.159,0.23 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.231,0.351 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.106,0.001 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.002,-0.037,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.025,0.035 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.006,-0.047,0.06 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,0.004,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.027,-0.016,0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,0.003,0.038 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.029,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.14,0.001,0.301 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.081,0.032,0.13 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.078,-0.01,0.138 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.071,0.019,0.124 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.1,0.026,0.153 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.075,0.308 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.075,0.2 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.455,0.061,0.769 TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.178,0.286 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.206,0.317 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.146,0.241 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.196,0.38 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.073,-0.141,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.07,0.027 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.017,-0.08,0.033 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.05,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.063,0.06 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.12,-0.031,0.28 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.009,0.111 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.079,-0.01,0.149 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.161,0.045,0.292 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.443,0.023,0.768 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.276 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.185,0.308 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.365 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.026,-0.057,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.076,0.007 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.022,-0.044,0.0 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.028,-0.072,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.056,0.048 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.057,0.048 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.02,0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.116,0.011,0.247 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.055,0.015,0.089 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.052,-0.001,0.095 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.045,0.005,0.088 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.075,0.023,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.157,0.091,0.259 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.115,0.091,0.143 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.44,0.072,0.758 Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.131,0.282 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.165,0.314 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.177,0.135,0.228 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.192,0.348 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.072,-0.141,-0.024 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.021,-0.07,0.028 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.065,0.03 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.016,-0.08,0.034 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.039,-0.004 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.05,0.054 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.062,0.061 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.044,0.122 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,-0.01,0.105 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.08,-0.01,0.149 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.12,0.045,0.185 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.443,0.023,0.768 +Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.158,0.276 +Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.114,0.225 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.18,0.366 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.08,-0.131,-0.028 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.028,-0.058,0.0 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.029,-0.092,0.018 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.028 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.063,0.059 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.027,0.02 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.065,0.059 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.239 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.054,0.012,0.097 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.078 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.044,-0.001,0.091 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.073,0.031,0.114 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.091,0.251 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.089,0.135 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.439,0.081,0.757 Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.125,0.295 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.155,0.324 +Sundial-Base,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.138,0.215 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.2,0.344 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.459,-0.071 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.161,-0.359,-0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.156,-0.354,-0.036 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.163,-0.431,-0.001 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.137,-0.389,0.03 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.131,-0.328,-0.011 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.13,-0.314,-0.029 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.137,-0.208,-0.071 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.083,-0.146,-0.021 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.084,-0.157,-0.01 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.078,-0.131,-0.023 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.085,-0.16,0.01 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.106,0.001 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.139,0.042 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.084,-0.02 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.069,-0.271,0.059 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.047,-0.246,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.046,-0.001,0.089 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.366,-0.049,0.726 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.109,-0.149,0.275 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.144,-0.11,0.307 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.286 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.183,-0.082 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.086,-0.126,-0.062 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.106,-0.057 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.088,-0.149,-0.033 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.058,-0.097,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.057,-0.108,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.065,-0.063,0.213 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.079,0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.01,0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,0.02,0.102 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.409,0.063,0.736 +Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.069,0.275 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.09,0.173 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.151,0.311 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.129,-0.16,-0.089 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.128,-0.04 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.076,-0.149,-0.008 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.101,-0.041 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.077,-0.141,-0.019 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.047,-0.097,-0.005 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.053,-0.117,0.01 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.046,-0.101,0.001 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.064,0.073 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.056,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.108,0.017,0.215 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.407,0.014,0.752 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.059,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.09,0.29 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.169,0.289 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.039,0.097 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.017,0.126 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.414,0.029,0.754 +TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.066,0.268 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.105,0.178 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.181,0.294 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.243,-0.112 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.109,-0.187,-0.036 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.162,-0.046 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.173,-0.04 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.111,-0.18,-0.027 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.086,-0.175,0.01 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.081,-0.146,-0.024 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.087,-0.176,0.01 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.079,-0.128,-0.032 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.045,-0.044,0.197 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.101,0.053 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.044,0.01 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.107,0.038 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.089,-0.018,0.224 +AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.018,0.103 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.395,0.04,0.727 AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.059,0.244 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.096,0.277 +AutoTheta,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.111,0.07,0.141 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.115,0.304 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.5,-0.138 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.374,-0.115 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.37,-0.118 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.445,-0.081 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.192,-0.412,-0.048 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.186,-0.349,-0.1 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.335,-0.1 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.048,-0.098,0.001 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.121,-0.274,-0.017 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.097,-0.289,0.018 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.302,-0.138 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.16,-0.205,-0.115 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.25,-0.098 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.191,-0.118 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.162,-0.249,-0.081 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.13,-0.166,-0.1 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.136,-0.227,-0.047 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.157,-0.098 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.114,-0.02 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.145,-0.017 +AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.115,0.018 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.336,-0.108,0.712 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,-0.165,0.208 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.102,-0.112,0.239 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.139,0.042,0.235 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.367,-0.021,0.723 +AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.11,-0.006,0.208 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.071,0.006,0.131 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.106,0.255 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.925,-3.56,-0.159 AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.354,-0.087 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.835,-3.164,-0.092 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.824,-3.308,-0.102 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.836,-3.32,-0.065 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.794,-3.308,-0.023 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.785,-3.132,-0.077 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.795,-3.312,-0.023 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.783,-3.107,-0.088 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.578,-2.653,0.047 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.687,-3.038,-0.014 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.693,-2.794,-0.067 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.705,-3.06,-0.03 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.652,-2.668,-0.041 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.505,-2.472,0.097 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.58,-2.614,0.02 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.406,-2.121,0.194 -AutoETS,Drift,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.351,-2.001,0.23 +AutoETS,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.469,-2.405,0.098 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.296,-2.14,0.211 Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.538,-0.219 Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.442,-0.166 +Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.393,-0.228 Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.451,-0.151 Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.4,-0.217 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.276,-0.381,-0.186 Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.392,-0.151 +Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.382,-0.188 Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.419,-0.143 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.123,-0.379,0.13 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.345,-0.063 +Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.379,-0.074 +Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.365,-0.071 Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.322,-0.063 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.263,0.142 +Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.124,-0.263,0.006 Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.289,-0.24,0.68 Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.039,0.026,0.046 +Naive,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.045,-0.178,0.071 Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.078,-0.115,0.244 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.61,-0.261 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.506,-0.211 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.519,-0.198 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.465,-0.26 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.445,-0.227 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.321,-0.458,-0.198 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.319,-0.48,-0.183 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.168,-0.443,0.099 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.408,-0.099 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.223,-0.384,-0.106 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.114,-0.314,0.101 -Drift,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.26,-0.298,0.667 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.048,-0.027 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.041,-0.168,0.219 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.336,-0.285 +TFT,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.318,-0.181 +TFT,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.249,-0.322,-0.176 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.299,-0.189 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.318,-0.171 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.295,-0.156 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.222,-0.29,-0.129 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.274,-0.16 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.153,-0.209,-0.099 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.216,-0.118 +TFT,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.125,-0.164,-0.075 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.076,-0.151,-0.006 +TFT,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.319,-0.108,0.706 +TFT,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.043,-0.076,0.151 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.117,0.033,0.197 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.633,-0.357 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.572,-0.285 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.628,-0.234 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.541,-0.3 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.612,-0.244 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.384,-0.575,-0.22 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.534,-0.238 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.577,-0.22 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.525,-0.251 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.4,-0.08 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.406,-0.203 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.451,-0.178 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.417,-0.221 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.437,-0.13 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.161,-0.307,-0.044 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.342,-0.118 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.229,-0.268,0.682 Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.085,-0.323,0.104 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.043,-0.28,0.144 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.133,-0.246,-0.034 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv index 439fe51a458665716073ae96eef164830e7a8125..618875d9c14b5d3af579e388a912d792c6500a02 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -3,224 +3,255 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.043,-0.001,0.081 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,-0.001,0.095 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.011,0.122 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.06,0.007,0.111 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.065,0.02,0.122 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.081,0.019,0.139 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.065,0.021,0.121 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.143 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.11,0.078,0.134 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.134,0.097,0.169 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.141,0.433 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.272,0.161,0.393 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.141,0.391 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.161,0.29 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.244,0.286 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.278,0.207,0.342 Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.259,0.947 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.258,0.535 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.28,0.396 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.401,0.327,0.459 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.431,0.6 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.447,0.617 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.045,-0.089,0.001 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.004,-0.048,0.043 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.022,-0.007,0.049 +TiRex,FlowState,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.036,0.059 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.026,0.07 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.04,0.011,0.066 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.023,-0.025,0.069 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.056,0.109 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.07,0.036,0.109 TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.065,0.123 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.273,0.126,0.395 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.146,0.351 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.244,0.109,0.36 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.139,0.239 +TiRex,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.186,0.279 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.146,0.342 TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.217,0.947 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.245,0.505 +TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.235,0.388 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.288,0.434 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.414,0.575 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.429,0.592 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.105,0.001 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.004,-0.045,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.051,0.092 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.014,-0.01,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.002,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.036,-0.024,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,0.003,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.029,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,0.015,0.111 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.091,0.045,0.13 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.27,0.095,0.415 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.111,0.38 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.241,0.087,0.364 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.111,0.261 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.229,0.177,0.277 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.242,0.177,0.332 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.709,0.198,0.947 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.215,0.523 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.207,0.391 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.265,0.447 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.396,0.574 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.413,0.592 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.022,-0.052,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.101,0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.004,-0.091,0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.079,0.075 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.018,0.0,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.001,-0.078,0.075 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.09 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,-0.008,0.093 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.114 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.366 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.314 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.227,0.11,0.341 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.141,0.216 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.149,0.276 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.105,0.341 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.221,0.947 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.378,0.249,0.485 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.226,0.375 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.291,0.411 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.406,0.562 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.422,0.579 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.064,-0.124,-0.007 +FlowState,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.062,0.035 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.048,0.01 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.004,-0.057,0.083 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.005,-0.045,0.044 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.022,-0.025,0.086 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.053,0.002,0.106 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.078,0.047,0.115 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.231,0.098,0.344 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.111,0.246 +FlowState,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.177,0.258 +FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.175,0.319 +FlowState,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.709,0.209,0.947 +FlowState,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.295,0.2,0.386 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.261,0.444 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.139,-0.02 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.075,0.025 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.037,-0.002 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.005,-0.046,0.043 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.054,0.084 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.019,0.099 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.014,0.117 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.227,0.053,0.357 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.175,0.081,0.251 +Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.215,0.152,0.265 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.149,0.321 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.703,0.168,0.947 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.292,0.194,0.381 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.24,0.437 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.088,-0.161,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.041,-0.07,-0.011 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.037,-0.112,0.024 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.018,-0.037,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.095,0.025 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.091,0.051 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.09,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.002,0.081 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.031,-0.023,0.085 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,0.016,0.1 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.243,0.114,0.353 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.208,0.128,0.307 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.213,0.088,0.32 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.12,0.192 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.14,0.263 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.097,0.331 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.201,0.947 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.232,0.47 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.198,0.369 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.271,0.409 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.396,0.548 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.412,0.566 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.07,-0.138,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.023,-0.074,0.024 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.035,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.001,-0.081,0.073 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.053,0.083 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.057,-0.002,0.106 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.073,0.015,0.116 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.256,0.07,0.405 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.221,0.086,0.367 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.703,0.17,0.947 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.377,0.192,0.514 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.241,0.436 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.482,0.38,0.569 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.398,0.588 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.167,-0.083 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.123,-0.06 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.134,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.099,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.088,0.002 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.06,-0.118,0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.155,-0.085 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.075,-0.123,-0.037 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.125,-0.015 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.102,0.008 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.056,-0.119,-0.002 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.051,-0.11,0.019 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.032,-0.093,0.023 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.034,0.06 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.212,0.042,0.347 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.063,0.298 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.689,0.159,0.945 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.34,0.182,0.468 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.242,0.372 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.451,0.357,0.535 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.375,0.554 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.027,-0.034,0.065 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.188,0.042,0.312 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.133,0.063,0.194 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.135,0.222 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.093,0.281 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.691,0.17,0.944 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.17,0.345 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.245,0.386 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.204,-0.107 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.14,-0.07 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.1,-0.149,-0.047 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.129,-0.025 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.13,-0.049 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.133,-0.015 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.061,-0.111,-0.017 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.131,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.063,0.033 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.027,-0.07,0.032 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.197,0.033,0.333 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.16,0.055,0.285 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.165,0.033,0.279 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.055,0.16 +Sundial-Base,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.118,0.187 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.082,0.254 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.688,0.16,0.945 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.328,0.165,0.457 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.157,0.315 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.223,0.39 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.364,0.517 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.382,0.539 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.765,-0.164 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.376,-0.653,-0.145 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.37,-0.71,-0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.345,-0.577,-0.148 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.321,-0.545,-0.129 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.344,-0.681,-0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.268,-0.532,-0.044 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.246,-0.5,-0.035 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.642,-0.164 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.323,-0.563,-0.122 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.318,-0.571,-0.095 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.294,-0.517,-0.124 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.3,-0.524,-0.108 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.293,-0.556,-0.056 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.27,-0.472,-0.096 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.231,-0.454,-0.044 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.198,-0.387,-0.035 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.047,-0.183,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.645,0.089,0.941 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.118,0.21 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.139,-0.004,0.262 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.201,0.379 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.329,0.224,0.406 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.374,-0.647,-0.191 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.54,-0.171 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.612,-0.125 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.459,-0.173 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.262,-0.444,-0.147 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.284,-0.579,-0.094 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.425,-0.067 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.19,-0.399,-0.059 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.045,-0.049,0.155 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.067,-0.189,0.034 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.016,-0.209,0.146 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.246,0.206 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.658,0.124,0.942 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.084,-0.121,0.236 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.172,0.038,0.268 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.409,-0.191 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.24,-0.314,-0.161 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.235,-0.354,-0.125 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.275,-0.165 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.218,-0.327,-0.125 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.212,-0.335,-0.088 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.191,-0.237,-0.136 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.154,-0.24,-0.067 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.191,-0.059 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.063,-0.035,0.159 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.642,0.062,0.941 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.201,0.087,0.317 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.269 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.21,0.441 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.238,0.463 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.048,-0.038,0.127 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.064,-0.086,0.187 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.662,0.092,0.943 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.142,0.036,0.254 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.153,0.289 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.4,-0.323 +TFT,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.303,-0.386,-0.229 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.297,-0.383,-0.215 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.274,-0.381,-0.176 +TFT,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.348,-0.215 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.36,-0.179 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.357,-0.163 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.212,-0.286,-0.156 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.179,-0.23,-0.134 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.015,-0.172,0.173 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.05,-0.145,0.036 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.061,0.087 +TFT,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.641,-0.011,0.94 +TFT,DeepAR,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.098,0.018,0.178 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.089,0.275 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.385,-0.52,-0.261 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.52,-0.171 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.496,-0.215 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.517,-0.117 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.468,-0.212 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.295,-0.474,-0.176 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.494,-0.108 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.392,-0.102 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.341,-0.089 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.259,0.197 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.069,-0.231,0.079 +PatchTST,TFT,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.096,0.057 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.637,-0.086,0.939 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.083,-0.009,0.199 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.171,0.003,0.313 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.538,-17.795,-0.35 AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.44,-17.904,-0.278 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.436,-17.805,-0.247 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.391,-17.776,-0.283 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.439,-17.747,-0.264 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.365,-17.71,-0.203 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.363,-17.776,-0.252 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.366,-17.702,-0.205 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.219,-17.076,-0.19 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.237,-17.009,-0.205 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.207,-17.119,-0.19 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.814,-15.878,-0.098 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.791,-15.965,-0.066 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.926,-16.237,-0.142 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.958,-16.44,-0.102 +AutoETS,TFT,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.788,-15.578,0.01 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.753,-15.268,0.079 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.464,-14.889,0.062 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.503,-14.764,0.114 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-1.364,-14.138,0.138 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.141,-13.92,0.256 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.083,-13.686,0.286 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.718,-1.152,-0.347 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.644,-1.02,-0.324 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-1.095,-0.274 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.608,-0.941,-0.332 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.887,-0.303 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.606,-1.056,-0.237 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.516,-0.879,-0.222 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.489,-0.842,-0.197 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.265,-0.134 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.251,-0.464,-0.095 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.594,-0.066,0.937 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.028,-0.202,0.12 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.168,0.021,0.281 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.049,0.314 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.51,-0.656,-0.388 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.445,-0.635,-0.307 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.439,-0.641,-0.262 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.413,-0.599,-0.292 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.419,-0.628,-0.25 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.412,-0.616,-0.241 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.387,-0.586,-0.247 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.526,-0.205 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.308,-0.459,-0.187 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.092,-0.308,0.108 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.165,-0.34,-0.037 +DeepAR,TFT,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.109,-0.216,-0.018 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.09,-0.248,0.009 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.601,-0.129,0.937 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.096,-0.021,0.206 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.848,-0.486 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.768,-0.404 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.807,-0.36 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.563,-0.699,-0.411 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.57,-0.797,-0.352 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.775,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.692,-0.371 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.773,-0.317 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.593,-0.319 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.487,-0.63,-0.324 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.639,-0.286 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.355,0.004 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.216,-0.368,-0.082 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.208,-0.366,-0.039 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.407,-0.181 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.227,-0.379,-0.097 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.206,-0.456,-0.003 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.577,-0.16,0.934 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.028,-0.137,0.168 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.106,-0.26,0.021 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.191,0.023,0.331 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.22,0.045,0.362 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.064,-1.497,-0.756 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.352,-0.706 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.967,-1.345,-0.655 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.932,-1.282,-0.683 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.215,-0.655 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.93,-1.321,-0.614 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.821,-1.152,-0.556 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.788,-1.071,-0.571 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.61,-0.252 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.79,-0.267 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.533,-0.345,0.933 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.201,-0.391,-0.021 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.236,-0.496,-0.024 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.036,0.023,0.046 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.142,-1.61,-0.808 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.449,-0.753 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.451,-0.704 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.004,-1.377,-0.729 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.306,-0.701 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.426,-0.662 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.889,-1.241,-0.6 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.856,-1.169,-0.618 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.49,-0.685,-0.288 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.864,-0.312 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.52,-0.401,0.932 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.247,-0.458,-0.051 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.282,-0.567,-0.048 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.038,-0.048,-0.023 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv index ab72a41d924bb16897202c76d002e92572f240ed..668b51fd152a874c30efe71289efccdd1986105d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.02,-0.057,0.091 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.032,-0.008,0.069 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.026,-0.059,0.112 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.025,-0.062,0.112 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.03,0.091 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.05,0.01,0.084 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.062,0.015,0.106 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.094,0.059,0.123 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.083,0.052,0.108 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.11,0.209 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.156,0.106,0.207 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.105,0.34 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.119,0.515 Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.142,0.803 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.225,0.347 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.196,0.651 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.301,0.439 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.199,0.246 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.156,0.265 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.189,0.29 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.613 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.021,-0.1,0.054 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.033,0.064 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.005,-0.042,0.05 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.013,-0.024,0.042 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.032,0.114 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.042,-0.006,0.114 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.003,0.118 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.15,0.044,0.241 +FlowState,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.139,0.057,0.215 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.203,0.03,0.367 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.495,0.116,0.786 +FlowState,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.206,0.149,0.26 +FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.167,0.24 +FlowState,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.142,0.304 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.212,0.633 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.033,-0.074,0.008 +TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.069,0.032 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.07,0.05 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.073,0.05 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.001,-0.044,0.032 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.014,0.055 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,0.002,0.06 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.064,0.043,0.09 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.052,0.023,0.09 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.054,0.207 TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.128,0.062,0.196 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.054,0.34 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.276,0.057,0.511 TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.099,0.792 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.219,0.303 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.152,0.648 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.287,0.421 +TiRex,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.196,0.161,0.236 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.192,0.138,0.236 +TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.155,0.276 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.453,0.224,0.614 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.027,-0.126,0.056 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.053,0.066 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.126,0.058 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.005,-0.053,0.04 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.053,0.068 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.007,-0.025,0.038 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.024,-0.07,0.117 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.036,-0.046,0.124 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.07,0.009,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.133,0.026,0.21 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.198,0.016,0.364 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.28,0.021,0.54 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.492,0.069,0.794 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.254,0.288 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.441,0.118,0.658 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.285,0.456 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.456,0.212,0.632 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.008,-0.026,0.04 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.025,-0.071,0.118 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.046,0.125 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.059,-0.005,0.118 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.146,0.008,0.24 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.134,0.026,0.211 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.199,0.015,0.365 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.493,0.069,0.795 +Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.128,0.256 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.157,0.232 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.137,0.292 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.212,0.633 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.1,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.013,-0.043,0.024 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.001,-0.034,0.042 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.007,-0.04,0.025 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.008,-0.042,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.042,0.095 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.03,-0.029,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.063,0.029,0.107 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.052,0.014,0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.029,0.214 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.127,0.039,0.206 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.193,0.04,0.341 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.275,0.033,0.533 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.489,0.089,0.791 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.233,0.292 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.437,0.139,0.646 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.35,0.266,0.446 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.196,0.148,0.245 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.191,0.164,0.232 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.132,0.289 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.216,0.62 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.092,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.129,0.031 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.059,0.013 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.025,-0.133,0.065 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.026,-0.134,0.066 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.105,0.041 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,0.0,0.025 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.047,0.009,0.086 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.035,-0.023,0.083 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.124,0.057,0.191 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.112,0.045,0.179 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.179,0.057,0.325 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.072,0.481 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.48,0.113,0.787 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.175,0.308 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.154,0.639 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.286,0.398 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.182,0.135,0.224 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.177,0.097,0.23 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.141,0.265 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.443,0.234,0.607 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.066,-0.119,-0.015 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.044,-0.129,0.006 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.064,-0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.038,-0.141,0.044 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.143,0.044 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.031,-0.112,0.028 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.026,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.035,0.001,0.076 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.023,-0.033,0.075 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.113,0.032,0.187 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.101,0.027,0.179 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.168,0.033,0.319 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.253,0.051,0.481 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.473,0.1,0.782 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.173,0.294 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.137,0.639 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.276,0.39 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.171,0.122,0.22 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.086,0.222 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.188,0.125,0.26 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.436,0.216,0.604 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.104,-0.141,-0.063 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.099,-0.045 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.075,-0.155,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.068,-0.12,-0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.049,-0.094,-0.009 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.036,-0.082,-0.001 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.091,-0.121,-0.055 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.068,-0.133,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.055,-0.099,-0.024 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.063,-0.133,0.005 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.055,-0.096,-0.014 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.036,-0.09,0.023 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.023,-0.081,0.032 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.068,-0.003,0.154 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.138,0.01,0.274 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.226,0.006,0.473 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.454,0.046,0.781 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.157,0.269 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.111,0.613 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.22,0.385 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.189,0.58 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.092,0.013,0.141 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.08,0.015,0.147 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.149,0.016,0.282 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.461,0.061,0.783 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.152,0.123,0.185 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.147,0.1,0.192 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.096,0.239 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.422,0.201,0.584 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.264,-0.123 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.177,-0.317,-0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.162,-0.262,-0.057 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.17,-0.317,-0.008 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.161,-0.273,-0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.141,-0.236,-0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.127,-0.23,-0.034 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.101,-0.164,-0.013 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.014,-0.079,0.038 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.062,-0.052,0.169 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.406,0.033,0.756 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.066,0.007,0.121 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.061,-0.038,0.152 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.085,-0.017,0.173 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.157,0.52 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.185,-0.261,-0.118 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.161,-0.274,-0.061 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.146,-0.244,-0.066 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.154,-0.266,-0.027 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.155,-0.267,-0.027 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.146,-0.259,-0.041 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.126,-0.219,-0.047 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.112,-0.218,-0.028 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.073,-0.182,0.003 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.086,-0.173,-0.016 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.013,-0.04,0.073 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.075,-0.094,0.236 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.17,-0.04,0.439 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.414,0.031,0.756 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.159,0.08,0.246 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.355,0.02,0.592 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.138,0.359 +AutoTheta,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.079,0.047,0.113 +AutoTheta,PatchTST,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.14 +AutoTheta,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.097,0.034,0.159 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.124,0.551 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.514,-0.118 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.255,-0.579,-0.031 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.515,-0.058 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.248,-0.572,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.248,-0.575,-0.015 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.239,-0.516,-0.041 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.217,-0.481,-0.06 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.202,-0.469,-0.034 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.16,-0.378,-0.01 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.175,-0.392,-0.016 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.067,-0.203,0.049 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.081,-0.309,0.086 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.102,-0.154,0.356 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.367,-0.107,0.752 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.091,-0.163,0.262 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.302,0.104,0.465 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.195,-0.036,0.319 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.004,-0.2,0.152 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.245,0.173 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.024,-0.219,0.192 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.322,0.196,0.44 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-1.06,-0.136 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.043,-0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.389,-1.175,-0.022 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.38,-1.143,-0.034 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.356,-0.928,-0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.339,-0.928,-0.053 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.292,-0.899,-0.006 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.204,-0.783,0.038 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.114,-0.552,0.134 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.294,-0.491,0.752 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.012,-0.576,0.256 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.223,0.017,0.48 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.103,-0.193,0.288 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.079,0.437 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-4.086,-0.165 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.981,-3.673,-0.131 AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.957,-3.819,-0.11 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.969,-3.864,-0.074 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.971,-3.867,-0.074 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.955,-3.785,-0.098 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.922,-3.687,-0.128 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.897,-3.581,-0.111 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.832,-3.56,-0.049 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.854,-3.606,-0.065 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.684,-3.105,-0.034 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.707,-3.104,-0.032 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.579,-3.026,0.096 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.417,-3.027,0.329 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.435,-2.462,0.2 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.101,-2.153,0.506 -AutoETS,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.272,-2.166,0.294 +AutoETS,TFT,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.572,-2.866,0.077 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.581,-2.82,0.093 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.541,-2.884,0.115 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.071,-2.122,0.478 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.532,-0.291 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.434,-0.28 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.405,-0.341 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.363,-0.413,-0.304 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.445,-0.212 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.322,-0.416,-0.209 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.369,-0.186 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.189,-0.326,-0.087 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.1,-0.355,0.14 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.012,-0.344,0.365 -Naive,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.303,-0.249,0.711 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.232,-0.216,0.538 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.114,0.031,0.248 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.254,-0.107,0.5 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.836,-1.868,-0.243 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.776,-1.839,-0.179 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.788,-1.924,-0.133 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.775,-1.821,-0.161 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.773,-0.182 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.773,-0.159 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.663,-1.583,-0.125 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.549,-1.452,-0.021 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.433,-0.868,-0.116 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.287,-0.923,-0.017 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.092,-1.026,0.683 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.303,-1.164,0.178 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.154,-0.935,0.218 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.028,-0.096,0.124 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.781,-0.431 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.539,-0.727,-0.403 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.549,-0.839,-0.398 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.538,-0.806,-0.362 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.511,-0.662,-0.4 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.64,-0.381 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.627,-0.282 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.342,-0.56,-0.16 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.241,-0.467,0.035 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.115,-0.405,0.162 -Drift,AutoETS,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.214,-0.417,0.684 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.128,-0.33,-0.032 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.134,-0.278,0.483 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.158,-0.156,0.42 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.286,-0.326,-0.249 +TFT,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.26,-0.351,-0.175 +TFT,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.244,-0.309,-0.192 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.345,-0.147 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.244,-0.325,-0.173 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.222,-0.288,-0.156 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.207,-0.282,-0.139 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.179,-0.226,-0.141 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.071,-0.138,-0.007 +TFT,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.085,-0.127,-0.05 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.004,-0.18,0.167 +TFT,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.364,-0.083,0.741 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.006,-0.059,0.041 +TFT,DeepAR,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.02,-0.043,0.075 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.319,0.056,0.511 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.36,-0.184 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.253,-0.317,-0.2 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.237,-0.309,-0.161 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.303,-0.187 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.237,-0.302,-0.196 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.215,-0.298,-0.107 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.285,-0.094 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.173,-0.237,-0.111 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.065,-0.179,0.036 +PatchTST,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.079,-0.163,-0.013 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.209,0.197 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.368,-0.102,0.738 +PatchTST,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.006,-0.043,0.056 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.026,-0.051,0.101 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.323,0.017,0.534 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.313,-0.408,-0.232 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.286,-0.436,-0.165 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.382,-0.183 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.412,-0.159 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.269,-0.407,-0.153 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.247,-0.361,-0.164 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.232,-0.351,-0.143 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.204,-0.313,-0.107 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.093,-0.209,0.017 +DeepAR,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.108,-0.189,-0.035 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.025,-0.238,0.18 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.351,-0.13,0.743 +DeepAR,TFT,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.021,-0.081,0.041 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.026,-0.113,0.048 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.305,0.024,0.525 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.888,-1.587,-0.384 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.727,-0.27 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.827,-1.591,-0.288 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.839,-1.721,-0.27 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.84,-1.726,-0.269 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.826,-1.634,-0.276 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.794,-1.545,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.772,-1.526,-0.276 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.71,-1.38,-0.233 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.731,-1.406,-0.252 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-1.083,-0.187 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.594,-1.226,-0.141 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.474,-0.786,-0.244 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.777,-0.086 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.066,-0.917,0.68 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.34,-1.001,0.097 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.029,-0.142,0.088 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.187,-0.724,0.135 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.468,-1.044,-0.06 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.476,-1.148,-0.017 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.439,-1.105,-0.025 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv index 621198599b5086f10bd143e22c04781dcf628b91..35ae8c10489370b15accc7c88fc74f90a124e14d 100644 --- a/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_nature/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.011,-0.108,0.124 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.034,0.055 +FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.043,-0.038,0.144 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.032,-0.033,0.088 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.06,-0.027,0.151 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.068,-0.012,0.154 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.086,0.005,0.171 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.091,0.432 +FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.168,0.274 +FlowState,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.179,0.308 +FlowState,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.161,0.347 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.181,0.749 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.616,0.234,0.832 +FlowState,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.399,0.637 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.655,0.349,0.823 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.011,-0.142,0.098 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.002,-0.112,0.084 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.033,-0.011,0.074 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.02,-0.065,0.099 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.021,-0.063,0.101 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.049,0.015,0.087 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.058,0.021,0.1 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.066,0.021,0.108 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.076,0.051,0.1 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.165,0.385 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.596,0.289,0.786 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.248,0.769 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.204,0.077,0.296 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.164,0.294 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.176,0.314 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.248,0.72 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.612,0.289,0.809 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.452,0.582 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.651,0.412,0.8 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.851,0.447,0.96 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.389,0.882 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.781,0.608,0.893 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.626,0.897 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.013,-0.058,0.032 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.002,-0.091,0.101 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.031,-0.031,0.124 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.018,-0.031,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.032,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.034,0.132 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.056,-0.012,0.133 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.064,0.016,0.123 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.148 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.26,0.114,0.407 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.595,0.249,0.809 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.186,0.792 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.139,0.273 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.179,0.304 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.249,0.15,0.338 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.186,0.743 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.611,0.249,0.826 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.401,0.618 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.65,0.373,0.816 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.854,0.428,0.963 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.712,0.366,0.888 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.575,0.902 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.789,0.594,0.906 +TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.045,-0.168,0.037 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.034,-0.08,0.011 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.032,-0.142,0.03 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.014,-0.083,0.045 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.012,-0.079,0.046 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.017,-0.018,0.051 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.026,-0.005,0.056 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.034,-0.006,0.062 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.044,0.019,0.069 TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.236,0.12,0.391 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.582,0.262,0.777 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.197,0.764 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.177,0.042,0.267 +TiRex,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.126,0.29 +TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.162,0.306 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.508,0.197,0.708 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.599,0.262,0.807 +TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.419,0.573 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.639,0.379,0.8 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.849,0.438,0.96 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.375,0.877 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.773,0.582,0.889 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.782,0.601,0.893 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.02,-0.11,0.061 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.018,-0.071,0.03 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.013,-0.047,0.077 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.033,-0.096,0.032 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.022,-0.112,0.059 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.075,0.031 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.012,-0.049,0.073 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.03,-0.058,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.039,-0.038,0.101 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.048,-0.008,0.093 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.246,0.087,0.423 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.588,0.233,0.794 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.548,0.166,0.782 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.644,0.359,0.812 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.851,0.418,0.962 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.707,0.353,0.887 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.566,0.898 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.585,0.902 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.029,-0.06,0.097 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.037,-0.04,0.099 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.056,-0.008,0.11 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.245,0.086,0.423 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.109,0.26 +Toto-1.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.156,0.281 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.235,0.163,0.314 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.514,0.165,0.73 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.604,0.233,0.821 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.397,0.604 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.359,0.812 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.063,-0.178,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.052,-0.096,-0.015 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.152,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.017,-0.054,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.031,-0.109,0.055 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.03,-0.107,0.056 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.009,0.0,0.021 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.018,-0.011,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.028,0.006,0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.116,0.358 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.258,0.778 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.197,0.76 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.163,0.04,0.258 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.196,0.124,0.27 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.123,0.299 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.499,0.197,0.704 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.258,0.802 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.41,0.57 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.633,0.366,0.794 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.848,0.434,0.96 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.698,0.368,0.878 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.58,0.887 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.599,0.891 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.073,-0.182,0.012 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.062,-0.111,-0.021 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.059,-0.154,0.012 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.027,-0.059,0.005 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.041,-0.113,0.037 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.039,-0.11,0.039 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.009,-0.022,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.009,-0.011,0.031 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.019,-0.001,0.038 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.216,0.102,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.245,0.776 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.529,0.185,0.759 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.155,0.037,0.25 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.121,0.266 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.205,0.118,0.288 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.495,0.185,0.703 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.245,0.802 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.403,0.57 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.629,0.357,0.794 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.847,0.427,0.96 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.362,0.878 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.572,0.887 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.591,0.891 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.071,-0.121,-0.022 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.069,-0.14,-0.016 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.036,-0.067,0.006 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.05,-0.102,0.008 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.018,-0.048,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.009,-0.032,0.011 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.094,-0.206,-0.005 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.082,-0.111,-0.054 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.08,-0.174,-0.013 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.046,-0.074,-0.019 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.059,-0.124,0.008 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.029,-0.053,-0.006 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.019,-0.04,0.001 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.209,0.084,0.36 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.567,0.227,0.78 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.161,0.763 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.346,0.795 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.845,0.411,0.959 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.345,0.878 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.765,0.562,0.889 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.582,0.893 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.201,0.085,0.352 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.139,0.017,0.227 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.103,0.244 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.117,0.266 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.165,0.7 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.58,0.231,0.799 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.471,0.395,0.554 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.622,0.353,0.789 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.368,-0.761,-0.1 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.627,-0.197 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.351,-0.685,-0.128 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.642,-0.136 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.327,-0.734,-0.095 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.325,-0.732,-0.094 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.558,-0.132 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.275,-0.554,-0.113 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.264,-0.562,-0.092 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.251,-0.543,-0.093 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.453,0.145,0.692 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.087,0.676 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.077,-0.425,0.16 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.034,-0.296,0.141 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.014,-0.326,0.173 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.356,0.087,0.599 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.475,0.145,0.727 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.339,0.177,0.458 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.284,0.714 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.808,0.284,0.953 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.269,0.825 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.703,0.519,0.848 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.541,0.854 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.476,-3.677,-0.406 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.471,-4.234,-0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.394,-3.477,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.427,-3.85,-0.304 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.354,-3.502,-0.348 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.333,-3.474,-0.324 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.312,-3.54,-0.294 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.829,-2.252,-0.17 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.0,0.7,-0.098,-0.253,0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.4,1.0,0.136,-0.006,0.263 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.679,0.122,0.942 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.288,0.141,0.431 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.457,0.381,0.525 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.402,0.547 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.255,-3.321,-0.329 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.25,-3.81,-0.229 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.18,-3.234,-0.246 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.21,-3.591,-0.199 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-3.167,-0.246 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.124,-3.155,-0.227 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.105,-3.225,-0.192 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-2.082,-0.095 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.3,1.0,0.089,-0.034,0.202 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.376,-0.201 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.256,-0.421,-0.084 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.254,-0.375,-0.161 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.215,-0.364,-0.043 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.352,-0.122 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.194,-0.348,-0.041 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.183,-0.334,-0.038 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.161,-0.294,-0.017 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.072,-0.191,0.298 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,TFT,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.04,-0.02,0.097 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.059,-0.028,0.168 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.402,-0.072,0.697 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.513,-0.016,0.794 +PatchTST,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.243,0.536 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.561,0.163,0.783 +TFT,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.446,-0.218 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.309,-0.417,-0.196 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.438,-0.218 +TFT,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.409,-0.144 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.392,-0.185 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.244,-0.37,-0.141 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.363,-0.138 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.323,-0.115 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.033,-0.164,0.228 +TFT,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.042,-0.108,0.02 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,DeepAR,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.019,-0.046,0.083 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.377,-0.081,0.666 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.492,-0.025,0.77 +TFT,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.26,0.488 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.171,0.76 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.349,-0.532,-0.192 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.335,-0.458,-0.214 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.332,-0.509,-0.177 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.44,-0.193 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.457,-0.195 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.269,-0.426,-0.14 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.257,-0.404,-0.134 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.362,-0.133 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.014,-0.209,0.246 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.063,-0.202,0.028 +DeepAR,TFT,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.02,-0.091,0.044 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.365,-0.108,0.637 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.482,-0.05,0.758 +DeepAR,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.255,0.453 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.534,0.152,0.745 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.125,-2.976,-0.221 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-2.577,-0.329 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.097,-2.895,-0.229 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.032,-2.428,-0.246 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.057,-2.704,-0.198 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.998,-2.374,-0.246 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.98,-2.365,-0.227 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.942,-2.336,-0.197 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.553,-1.496,-0.095 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.673,-2.301,0.067 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.606,-1.992,0.075 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.575,-1.754,0.097 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.085,0.322 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.69,0.14,0.945 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.163,0.498 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.439,0.55 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.524,0.461,0.571 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.185,0.007,0.329 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.027,-0.572,0.323 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.178,0.347 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.605,-4.948,-0.305 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.577,-4.248,-0.406 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.572,-4.746,-0.332 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.492,-4.183,-0.355 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.523,-4.575,-0.303 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.45,-4.046,-0.348 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.428,-4.046,-0.324 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.382,-3.981,-0.3 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.904,-2.666,-0.17 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.052,-3.847,0.016 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.969,-3.354,0.024 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.931,-3.138,0.048 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.226,-0.489,-0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.259,-1.295,0.298 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.1,-0.104,0.263 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.069,-1.757,-0.665 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.047,-1.391,-0.826 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.042,-1.616,-0.668 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.979,-1.34,-0.722 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.528,-0.658 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.325,-0.696 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.928,-1.325,-0.675 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.891,-1.241,-0.654 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.512,-0.846,-0.216 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-1.153,-0.322 +CatBoost,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.564,-0.953,-0.352 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.828,-0.342 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.026,-0.478,0.364 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.206,-0.424,0.564 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,0.286,-0.137,0.569 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.896,-4.661,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.865,-3.998,-0.7 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.859,-4.429,-0.596 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.77,-3.99,-0.611 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.808,-4.323,-0.561 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.804,-4.31,-0.56 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.723,-3.847,-0.577 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.699,-3.847,-0.554 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.675,-3.872,-0.53 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.647,-3.738,-0.546 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.116,-2.499,-0.396 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.0,0.6,-0.157,-0.357,0.006 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.3,-0.27,-0.475,-0.093 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.28,-3.601,-0.195 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.189,-3.171,-0.206 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.2,0.0,0.6,-1.146,-2.919,-0.179 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.363,-0.532,-0.216 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.112,-0.357,0.095 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.6,0.2,1.0,-0.4,-1.318,0.121 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.619,-0.191,0.934 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.6,0.2,1.0,0.176,-0.119,0.407 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.263,0.474 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.285,0.498 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.72,-23.987,-0.809 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.843,-25.798,-0.747 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.624,-24.278,-0.78 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.0,0.6,-5.702,-25.133,-0.719 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.569,-23.796,-0.768 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.529,-23.796,-0.746 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.472,-23.681,-0.697 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.0,0.6,-4.218,-20.183,-0.396 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.12,-16.234,-0.139 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.0,0.6,-2.23,-17.179,-0.162 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-1.625,-14.209,0.161 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.4,1.0,-1.332,-14.278,0.126 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.858,-12.363,0.398 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,-0.804,-12.205,0.425 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.479,-7.506,-0.637 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.472,-7.959,-0.578 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.364,-7.162,-0.601 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.41,-7.837,-0.546 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.307,-7.179,-0.581 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.277,-7.179,-0.567 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.248,-7.22,-0.527 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.57,-4.717,-0.367 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.405,-0.758,-0.164 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.992,-0.195 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.0,0.8,-0.214,-0.687,0.106 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.571,-0.144,0.935 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.237,0.048,0.39 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.4,1.0,0.266,0.077,0.417 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.56,-8.328,-1.553 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.55,-9.211,-1.351 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.409,-7.988,-1.391 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.469,-8.786,-1.303 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.334,-7.847,-1.379 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.295,-7.822,-1.337 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.257,-7.97,-1.283 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.368,-5.581,-1.081 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.841,-1.107,-0.615 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.022,-1.221,-0.784 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.592,-0.903,-0.356 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.462,-0.661,0.925 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.311,-0.64,-0.051 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.038,0.023,0.048 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.74,-8.702,-1.674 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.731,-9.61,-1.462 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.584,-8.339,-1.504 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.647,-9.168,-1.412 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.506,-8.192,-1.492 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.466,-8.166,-1.447 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.426,-8.32,-1.391 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.502,-5.838,-1.177 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.914,-1.209,-0.671 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.102,-1.33,-0.857 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.655,-0.991,-0.399 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.0,0.6,0.446,-0.738,0.924 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.0,0.6,-0.363,-0.714,-0.083 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.023 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv index fa4193fa03f19c9c7e69b496eb71711ba7801b24..f38b77d7f7b0a84efa07b90863d4cb0f14eae862 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.92857142857142,31.501656677015877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.57142857142857,23.432210853887824,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -TiRex,77.14285714285715,22.162040254473435,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.535714285714285,19.71091545425906,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,19.675877583589962,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,56.07142857142857,13.027815355863082,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -TabPFN-TS,53.75,21.87830321957843,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Toto-1.0,52.142857142857146,16.413339138501282,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,46.07142857142858,16.038005246480637,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,40.71428571428572,10.280766781650541,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,38.21428571428571,9.26831193284996,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.92857142857142,10.226042531476098,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -Naive,23.750000000000004,-6.914332478799268,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,22.857142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.85714285714286,-11.344894423586283,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.5,31.501656661779908,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,79.75000000000001,23.432210875851045,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +TiRex,76.25,22.162040270601192,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,75.50000000000001,23.41682939670412,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,66.875,26.291414549069813,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Moirai-2.0,61.875,19.520837065786147,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.12499999999999,19.67587758208953,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,55.49999999999999,19.1295976521051,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,54.25,13.665854293094004,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,53.25,19.084439307791044,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,51.99999999999999,16.430178452927592,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,45.0,16.038005227805108,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +TFT,41.99999999999999,13.175210398386616,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,39.5,10.280766783137185,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,38.75000000000001,6.213953011349793,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,37.75000000000001,9.268311929671036,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.74999999999999,10.226042550887172,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,26.999999999999996,6.532646730847547,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Naive,23.499999999999996,-6.914332491950659,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,23.125,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Drift,13.750000000000002,-11.344894425429741,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv index afe39a7bc19c7e4d6a527c0e13e32e6f5f4d4fc5..71ce51170722091852679f92bdac4885dad8e0d8 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,95.35714285714285,43.96240642608832,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.07142857142858,36.823555756781786,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.21428571428572,37.10811211763772,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,69.46428571428571,34.10760588639609,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.46428571428572,33.491148656047734,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.64285714285714,30.939728300714854,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.464285714285715,35.43634457814382,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.92857142857142,23.85904743187437,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,41.42857142857143,23.978096972410967,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.57142857142858,25.74930746838757,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.35714285714286,19.31393356433696,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,32.142857142857146,-30.072080218522256,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.750000000000002,-24.765318851224837,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.571428571428571,-28.889461313877618,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,95.5,43.96240636415071,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,86.75,36.82355570111464,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,84.50000000000001,37.10811207552987,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +FlowState,81.0,36.91651544152842,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.125,38.92001120631144,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +Chronos-Bolt,71.875,34.1076058240865,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,69.125,33.39092759318447,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.74999999999999,30.948733152914755,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,51.74999999999999,25.327733981726908,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,49.5,24.46284341523206,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,43.49999999999999,23.978096920266523,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,42.5,25.749307386319252,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,39.62500000000001,17.866358236369507,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,38.25,19.31393349762639,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,33.5,-30.072080438930016,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,31.874999999999996,17.74409557595822,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,31.749999999999996,18.810374229704784,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.749999999999996,18.765037629801505,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.250000000000004,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.374999999999998,-24.7653188720226,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.75,-28.889461387600647,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index c1b777a944f601f37cba932b354bc52cec51900d..35716f03cdbfcb45caf9b391a5adedf127ec786c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.85714285714288,36.379613913489294,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,81.07142857142857,26.676884863739826,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,80.71428571428572,26.63143268920436,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.67857142857142,31.495409904169957,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.464285714285715,21.34999371322177,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.10714285714285,21.832707013778197,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,55.714285714285715,19.746861195373988,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,51.42857142857142,15.056774830590047,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -Sundial-Base,50.0,19.631923145741638,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,37.142857142857146,13.94268827584597,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,35.71428571428571,11.9856769445434,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,33.92857142857142,9.663626183996287,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.178571428571423,-5.797213358383746,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.571428571428573,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.42857142857143,-11.068952925850128,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.75,36.37961364988923,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,82.125,35.43689733973191,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +TiRex,80.25,26.676882475661646,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.75,26.631433929913772,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +FlowState,73.00000000000001,26.949602028666487,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,61.12500000000001,21.679296308228114,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +LightGBM,58.5,22.449939976619714,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,58.5,22.444864726974835,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.37500000000001,21.34999505620995,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,55.00000000000001,19.76025668063852,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,50.24999999999999,19.631922812750414,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,49.49999999999999,15.823911544994452,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,43.75,16.59662312309126,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.25,13.942686864644848,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,34.25,11.985677005338214,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,32.99999999999999,6.800703153372501,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,32.74999999999999,9.663627642868011,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,25.499999999999996,8.923499543559977,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.25,-5.797212837788179,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.875,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.25,-11.068953116330738,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 661a4e32c76c425846175bca2578eb980b0d84f5..b4756acd5ca18e283c70188d48726fe07d194f55 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.21428571428572,48.70640032243877,0.0,0.3572266334258295,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.28571428571426,41.29715572696604,0.0,0.07370943284719464,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,41.64654333985731,0.0,0.19641556213711014,0.2,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,70.53571428571429,44.77960188404002,0.0,25.2531360586838,0.0,10.0 -Chronos-Bolt,65.17857142857143,37.464866804831296,0.0,0.04549884800513035,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.82142857142857,37.53610716017488,0.0,0.21348722605763143,0.25,0.0 -Toto-1.0,61.428571428571445,35.67337775117804,0.0,5.986121467058823,0.1,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.78571428571428,26.910379403137718,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,5.0 -Sundial-Base,44.28571428571429,30.894178482978774,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.785714285714285,28.45447313005621,0.0,3.96671253120826,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,33.92857142857143,21.431184897649857,0.0,0.7288304926503824,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,30.0,-32.00072832424261,0.0,0.8958939228431373,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.42857142857143,0.0,0.0,0.04917723782336198,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.964285714285715,-25.330360744270486,0.0,0.05127838559511824,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.571428571428572,-29.953276469478407,0.0,0.04833643247478821,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,94.0,48.70640034385884,0.0,0.34961068443961374,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,85.25,41.29715565976512,0.0,0.08413562701299362,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,83.0,41.64654327392226,0.0,0.19436559958166716,0.2,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,82.625,47.751193623423625,0.0,59.126968410558575,0.0,5.0 +FlowState,79.74999999999999,41.470209968122006,0.0,0.433503676897203,0.1,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,70.125,37.46657312331687,0.0,0.21064168391008586,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.625,37.464866729843635,0.0,0.04467236387284335,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,65.25000000000001,35.67867635279438,0.0,6.10989479852736,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,49.00000000000002,30.89417851183718,0.0,7.81832079433529,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.75000000000001,28.152681721748152,0.0,41.345157871288414,0.0,0.0 +TFT,47.74999999999999,28.227242900863803,27.48248403664031,0.16541783743066843,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,43.50000000000001,28.454473066200702,0.0,3.9777087639147384,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,37.5,23.488538196591747,7.662785978178928,0.011616579748484884,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,34.75,23.49354513163928,0.26506731755335194,0.010741697363488428,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,34.625,19.745157899183717,21.185337766397538,0.1847694522352561,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,34.49999999999999,21.431184822537432,0.0,0.7348429386640081,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,30.124999999999996,21.22969362810797,44.659765654105904,0.28546713782555877,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,29.999999999999993,-32.00072845680435,0.0,0.9657106988235296,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.499999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.05308108599394874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.874999999999998,-25.33036065111638,0.0,0.0535392465017203,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.5000000000000004,-29.953276450679468,0.0,0.04794415526692477,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv index f542562325a40e7c893d57269dfd5f395e9d86b8..203611a32fc4a2ac3254ac068e2ad52e24bc908a 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.105,0.047,0.172 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.057,0.189 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.085,0.21 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.046,0.172 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.071,-0.002,0.153 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.087,0.212 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.091,0.208 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.133,0.285 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.123,0.048,0.207 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.181,0.119,0.241 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.153,0.084,0.215 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.153,0.086,0.218 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.207,0.128,0.28 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.119,0.242 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.184,0.124,0.243 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.211,0.13,0.289 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.27,0.154,0.373 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.161,0.309 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.16,0.324 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.167,0.305 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.251,0.452 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.234,0.388 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.282,0.471 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.118,-0.208,-0.049 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.016,-0.005,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.046,0.019,0.078 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.0,-0.018,0.017 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.039,-0.169,0.071 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.049,0.019,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.047,0.027,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.12,0.049,0.2 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.02,-0.113,0.124 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.084,0.044,0.129 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.053,-0.043,0.133 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.054,-0.034,0.131 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.113,0.046,0.193 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.084,0.045,0.128 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.088,0.058,0.118 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.074,0.163 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.184,0.097,0.275 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.079,0.223 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.156,0.075,0.244 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.089,0.208 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.181,0.37 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.156,0.306 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.312,0.214,0.394 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.233,-0.061 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.017,-0.039,0.005 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.031,-0.001,0.062 +TiRex,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.042,0.004 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.056,-0.189,0.046 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.033,0.001,0.066 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.031,0.001,0.057 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.033,0.185 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.004,-0.126,0.108 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,-0.066,0.119 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.038,-0.057,0.111 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.098,0.029,0.177 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.069,0.028,0.113 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.073,0.039,0.107 +TiRex,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.104,0.055,0.148 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.17,0.089,0.259 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.066,0.208 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.142,0.061,0.233 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.08,0.189 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.272,0.172,0.357 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.222,0.146,0.292 -TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.301,0.208,0.38 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.265,-0.093 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.049,-0.084,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.031,-0.066,0.001 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.208,-0.048 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.0,-0.017,0.017 +FlowState,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.016,-0.004,0.04 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.039,-0.175,0.074 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.048,0.014,0.088 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.047,0.023,0.074 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.053,-0.046,0.133 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.054,-0.036,0.13 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.113,0.045,0.193 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.084,0.041,0.13 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.088,0.049,0.129 +FlowState,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.071,0.164 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.183,0.094,0.277 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.146,0.08,0.222 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.234,0.159,0.303 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.076,-0.181,0.002 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.037,-0.076,0.145 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.053,-0.048,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.038,-0.08,0.149 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.084,-0.03,0.188 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.082,-0.028,0.185 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.089,-0.021,0.184 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.089,0.003,0.177 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.146,0.025,0.258 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.118,0.012,0.215 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.122,0.03,0.213 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.151,0.026,0.261 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.214,0.074,0.336 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.178,0.056,0.286 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.263,0.147,0.361 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.269,-0.095 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.051,-0.089,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.034,-0.071,-0.001 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.051,-0.096,-0.015 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.092,-0.232,0.029 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.0,-0.019,0.019 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.077,0.005,0.152 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.028,-0.162,0.088 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.039,0.012,0.077 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.044,0.014,0.075 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.105,0.04,0.176 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.115,0.033,0.196 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.106,0.046,0.164 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.249,0.143,0.338 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.197,0.115,0.268 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.279,0.178,0.362 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.375,0.775,-0.002,-0.025,0.018 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.005,-0.089,0.076 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.005,-0.09,0.075 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,-0.002,0.141 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.037,0.005,0.076 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.041,0.013,0.071 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.073,0.029,0.113 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.142,0.06,0.224 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.103,0.034,0.174 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.195,0.11,0.267 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.262,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.049,-0.074,-0.027 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.032,-0.061,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.0,-0.019,0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.049,-0.08,-0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.09,-0.226,0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,0.002,-0.018,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.076,0.002,0.156 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.85,-0.028,-0.163,0.085 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.007,-0.091,0.089 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.007,-0.084,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.07,-0.003,0.15 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.039,0.01,0.078 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.043,0.016,0.072 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.075,0.033,0.117 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.144,0.059,0.231 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.105,0.038,0.179 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.115,0.031,0.204 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.045,0.167 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.249,0.14,0.338 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.197,0.112,0.272 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.279,0.178,0.363 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.399,-0.153 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.25,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.227,-0.035 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.083,-0.179,-0.005 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.083,-0.185,-0.002 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.181,-0.273,-0.092 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.056,-0.154,0.041 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.039,-0.136,0.062 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.056,-0.154,0.044 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.225,0.021 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.005,-0.082,0.082 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.007,-0.097,0.084 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.001,-0.058,0.052 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,-0.012,0.146 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.032,-0.044,0.119 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,-0.041,0.117 +CatBoost,TFT,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.069,-0.014,0.163 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.138,0.033,0.245 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.099,0.02,0.183 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.191,0.111,0.268 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.181,-0.279,-0.095 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.057,-0.151,0.033 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.04,-0.125,0.054 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.057,-0.149,0.035 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.098,-0.215,-0.003 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.005,-0.081,0.083 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.007,-0.086,0.077 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.001,-0.054,0.055 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,-0.012,0.147 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.032,-0.032,0.112 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.036,-0.037,0.112 +LightGBM,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.068,-0.004,0.153 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.137,0.033,0.24 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.098,0.023,0.183 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.191,0.107,0.267 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.26,-0.388,-0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.128,-0.239,-0.048 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.215,-0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.127,-0.239,-0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.171,-0.348,-0.026 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.073,-0.164,0.002 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.075,-0.176,0.003 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.068,-0.171,0.012 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.172,0.012 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.525,0.325,0.725,-0.113,-0.269,0.033 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.041,-0.11,0.022 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.036,-0.131,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.031,0.009,0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.041,0.013,0.071 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.031,-0.011,0.072 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.187,0.106,0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.13,0.09,0.168 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.219,0.144,0.293 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.14,-0.261,-0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.02,-0.142,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.004,-0.121,0.112 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.027,-0.097,0.14 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.15,0.6,0.027,-0.092,0.14 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.475,0.275,0.675,0.102,-0.034,0.212 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.065,-0.055,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.07,-0.034,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,-0.007,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.139,-0.001,0.256 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.13,0.022,0.225 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.269,0.12,0.394 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.625,0.925,0.219,0.088,0.326 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.298,0.155,0.423 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.22,-0.318,-0.135 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.092,-0.148,-0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.033,-0.096,0.025 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.028,-0.123,0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.006,-0.069,0.066 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.079,-0.028,0.17 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.038,0.022,0.053 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.097,0.172 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.22,-0.319,-0.135 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.091,-0.147,-0.047 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.074,-0.128,-0.029 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.041,-0.083,-0.012 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.041,-0.084,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.039,-0.022,0.099 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.07,-0.21,0.052 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.091,-0.15,-0.042 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.134,-0.273,-0.012 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.038,-0.082,-0.006 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.04,-0.084,-0.01 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.033,-0.135,0.042 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.033,-0.127,0.031 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.032,-0.025,0.088 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.004,-0.04,0.038 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,0.015,0.12 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.144 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.118 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.218,0.111,0.301 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.088,0.227 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.249,0.152,0.325 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.039,0.038 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.037,0.004,0.073 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.109,0.022,0.193 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.069,0.014,0.121 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.087,0.228 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.226,-0.321,-0.141 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.097,-0.134,-0.061 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.079,-0.12,-0.04 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.046,-0.081,-0.014 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.096,-0.148,-0.052 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.139,-0.27,-0.031 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.043,-0.077,-0.013 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.045,-0.077,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.035,-0.045,0.116 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.075,-0.201,0.033 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.004,-0.04,0.038 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.038,-0.133,0.039 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.038,-0.126,0.036 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.027,-0.049,0.11 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.04,0.038 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.033,-0.016,0.084 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.105,0.02,0.2 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.064,-0.009,0.142 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.075,-0.013,0.163 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.065,0.006,0.122 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.215,0.092,0.312 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.16,0.068,0.237 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.246,0.133,0.337 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.268,-0.406,-0.15 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.194,-0.08 +TFT,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.115,-0.174,-0.059 +TFT,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.197,-0.076 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.178,-0.353,-0.027 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.127,-0.029 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.081,-0.133,-0.034 +TFT,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.195,0.014 +TFT,LightGBM,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.073,-0.181,0.004 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.006,-0.07,0.064 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.039,-0.079,-0.004 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.034,-0.092,0.016 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.475,0.25,0.675,0.074,0.003,0.15 +TFT,AutoTheta,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.032,-0.028,0.092 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.132,0.055,0.199 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.369,-0.595,-0.182 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.225,-0.378,-0.107 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.205,-0.35,-0.097 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.225,-0.383,-0.103 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.272,-0.506,-0.079 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.165,-0.288,-0.064 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.168,-0.3,-0.063 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.16,-0.325,-0.034 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.159,-0.315,-0.034 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.086,-0.205,0.027 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.122,-0.239,-0.023 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.117,-0.249,-0.021 +PatchTST,TFT,0.525,0.325,0.75,-0.08,-0.177,-0.003 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.045,-0.155,0.061 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.062,-0.044,0.156 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.447,-0.191 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.287,-0.085 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.263,-0.071 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.117,-0.214,-0.042 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.172,-0.286,-0.087 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.217,-0.4,-0.06 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.115,-0.211,-0.035 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.218,-0.039 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.032,-0.054,-0.009 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.32,0.007 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.073,-0.137,-0.015 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.109,-0.224,-0.021 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.109,-0.224,-0.024 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.039,-0.056,-0.023 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.138,-0.015 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.069,-0.166,0.009 +AutoTheta,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.033,-0.102,0.027 +AutoTheta,PatchTST,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.043,-0.065,0.134 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.011,-0.014,0.04 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.001,-0.04,0.048 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.161,0.08,0.236 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.103,0.062,0.142 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.194,0.124,0.261 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.48,-0.19 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.323,-0.081 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.166,-0.303,-0.065 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.13,-0.244,-0.035 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.13,-0.256,-0.032 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.043,-0.076,-0.013 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.161,-0.344,0.001 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.085,-0.168,-0.009 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.081,-0.194,0.013 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.011,-0.041,0.014 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.011,-0.069,0.042 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.151,0.064,0.232 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.093,0.047,0.135 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.257 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.311,-0.439,-0.2 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.263,-0.097 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.153,-0.233,-0.087 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.196,-0.049 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.118,-0.201,-0.047 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.032,-0.077,0.011 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.149,-0.291,-0.022 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.134,-0.019 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.069,-0.139,-0.006 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.001,-0.051,0.039 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.011,-0.044,0.064 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.072,0.243 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.102,0.056,0.141 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.194,0.113,0.268 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.826,-0.336 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.396,-0.588,-0.221 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.374,-0.555,-0.208 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.332,-0.51,-0.167 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.331,-0.511,-0.163 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.361,-0.119 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.369,-0.651,-0.136 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.279,-0.43,-0.125 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.273,-0.454,-0.101 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.192,-0.309,-0.087 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.178,-0.301,-0.068 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.191,-0.321,-0.078 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.069,-0.161,0.001 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.04,0.025,0.058 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.46,-0.635,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.442,-0.185 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.285,-0.413,-0.17 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.245,-0.366,-0.13 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.306,-0.434,-0.189 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.357,-0.566,-0.173 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.243,-0.365,-0.123 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.245,-0.374,-0.126 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.15,-0.202,-0.099 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.075,0.375,-0.28,-0.484,-0.097 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.196,-0.294,-0.096 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.237,-0.367,-0.125 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.236,-0.365,-0.12 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.158,-0.208,-0.107 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.197,-0.296,-0.096 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.191,-0.311,-0.073 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.152,-0.249,-0.058 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.066,-0.185,0.042 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.115,-0.166,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.102,-0.156,-0.049 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.114,-0.165,-0.06 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.065,-0.001,0.139 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.102,0.042,0.167 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.626,-0.892,-0.394 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.454,-0.651,-0.273 -Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.43,-0.613,-0.262 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.387,-0.568,-0.217 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.386,-0.569,-0.217 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.28,-0.414,-0.168 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.425,-0.733,-0.183 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.332,-0.481,-0.179 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.326,-0.508,-0.153 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.241,-0.353,-0.142 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.227,-0.346,-0.122 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.24,-0.366,-0.127 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.041,-0.061,-0.025 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.113,-0.201,-0.044 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv index a8808c5bc6bc6776490cbb7c781ca64a0eb56e4b..fb5464b2902dfc8a591b25df6bcdee201b9b1bc3 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.113,0.05,0.183 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.05,0.174 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.112,0.049,0.179 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.083,0.003,0.165 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.091,0.211 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.157,0.095,0.219 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.189,0.119,0.253 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.051,0.216 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.264,0.185,0.334 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.159,0.096,0.22 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.12,0.253 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.174,0.322 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.258,0.16,0.351 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.263,0.19,0.335 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.245,0.186,0.302 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.201,0.415 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.219,0.389 Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.544,0.291,0.735 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.349,0.516 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.436,0.64 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.454,0.651 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.127,-0.224,-0.052 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.02,0.012 +TiRex,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.001,-0.019,0.016 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.034,-0.17,0.078 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.019,0.066 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.05,0.022,0.081 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.052,0.023,0.083 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.085,0.046,0.129 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.021,-0.113,0.133 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.103,0.244 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.154,0.093,0.223 +TiRex,TFT,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.164,0.101,0.221 TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.169,0.119,0.221 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.116,0.183 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.148,0.313 TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.217,0.146,0.291 TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.191,0.704 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.285,0.444 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.494,0.386,0.578 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.406,0.593 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.122,-0.211,-0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.012,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.003,-0.018,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.03,-0.163,0.077 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.65,0.925,0.046,0.027,0.067 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.054,0.028,0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.056,0.028,0.087 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.089,0.048,0.136 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.026,-0.105,0.134 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.254 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.158,0.088,0.232 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.167,0.101,0.226 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.173,0.118,0.229 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.125,0.183 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.149,0.318 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.141,0.299 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.489,0.194,0.705 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.282,0.452 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.383,0.581 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.404,0.595 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.126,-0.218,-0.052 +FlowState,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.001,-0.016,0.019 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.003,-0.025,0.017 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.033,-0.168,0.078 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.043,0.013,0.076 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.053,0.015,0.096 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.086,0.037,0.136 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.09,0.23 +FlowState,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.165,0.098,0.228 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.17,0.116,0.228 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.15,0.11,0.194 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.232,0.141,0.319 +FlowState,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.218,0.14,0.297 +FlowState,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.191,0.706 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.285,0.445 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.09,-0.198,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.033,-0.085,0.145 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.029,-0.083,0.14 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.032,-0.084,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.073,-0.041,0.178 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.083,-0.035,0.189 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.115,0.001,0.216 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.182,0.066,0.287 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.191,0.046,0.321 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.197,0.096,0.282 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.177,0.087,0.266 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.256,0.115,0.375 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.243,0.117,0.357 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.503,0.21,0.716 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.389,0.273,0.49 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.176,-0.268,-0.1 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.071,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.075,0.35,-0.048,-0.072,-0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.045,-0.082,-0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.079,-0.216,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.009,-0.005,0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.8,0.011,-0.005,0.028 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.016,0.087 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.021,-0.159,0.096 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.135,0.059,0.211 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.118,0.051,0.19 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.128,0.065,0.187 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.133,0.079,0.19 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.113,0.085,0.14 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.198,0.112,0.276 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.183,0.106,0.259 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.468,0.158,0.691 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.341,0.248,0.419 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.472,0.356,0.561 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.376,0.575 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.187,-0.28,-0.105 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.053,-0.088,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.058,-0.094,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.009,-0.026,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.189,-0.282,-0.106 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.054,-0.091,-0.024 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.059,-0.096,-0.029 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.056,-0.106,-0.015 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.091,-0.233,0.033 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.2,0.575,-0.011,-0.029,0.005 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.037,0.009,0.076 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.03,-0.173,0.09 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.127,0.05,0.204 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.182 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.104,0.077,0.13 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.176,0.099,0.252 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.466,0.154,0.691 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.335,0.24,0.415 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.467,0.348,0.557 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.484,0.368,0.573 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.339,-0.135 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.035,0.006,0.074 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.108,0.039,0.178 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.055,0.179 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.124,0.066,0.181 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.103,0.077,0.129 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.102,0.265 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.174,0.098,0.25 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.465,0.154,0.691 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.334,0.239,0.414 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.339,-0.136 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.093,-0.148,-0.048 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.098,-0.158,-0.05 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.095,-0.158,-0.039 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.131,-0.276,-0.001 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.095,-0.016 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.038,-0.083,-0.009 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.037,-0.08,-0.006 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.07,-0.211,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,0.03,0.155 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.092,0.047,0.141 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.07,0.026,0.106 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.075,0.024,0.126 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.086,0.027,0.141 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.092,0.048,0.141 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.07,0.027,0.105 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.159,0.074,0.238 Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.083,0.205 Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.447,0.124,0.688 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.224,0.379 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.446,0.331,0.535 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.352,0.552 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.152,-0.275,-0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.022,-0.153,0.101 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.027,-0.155,0.095 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.02,-0.106,0.137 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.029,-0.099,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.065,-0.056,0.174 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.875,0.152,0.038,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.151,0.04,0.249 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.13,0.03,0.224 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.2,0.065,0.321 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.475,0.164,0.703 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.354,0.221,0.462 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.483,0.342,0.595 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.499,0.364,0.61 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.359,-0.501,-0.227 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.323,-0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.211,-0.34,-0.113 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.156,-0.267,-0.062 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.145,-0.256,-0.052 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.103,-0.183,-0.031 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.125,0.525,-0.179,-0.346,-0.04 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.223,0.379 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.333,-0.475,-0.21 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.182,-0.287,-0.103 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.187,-0.302,-0.096 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.184,-0.299,-0.099 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.223,-0.403,-0.07 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.133,-0.235,-0.054 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.121,-0.216,-0.041 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.081,-0.144,-0.024 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.002,-0.063,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.025,-0.123,0.055 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.056,0.003,0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.399,0.052,0.666 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.239,0.176,0.293 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.39,0.284,0.48 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.307,0.497 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.011,-0.083,0.1 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.018,-0.022,0.057 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.006,-0.095,0.066 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.091,-0.018,0.177 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.075,0.046,0.11 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.411,0.065,0.668 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.196,0.302 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.348,-0.542,-0.19 +TFT,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.196,-0.283,-0.113 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.201,-0.292,-0.113 +TFT,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.197,-0.295,-0.109 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.237,-0.472,-0.048 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.146,-0.231,-0.069 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.134,-0.218,-0.058 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.094,-0.164,-0.027 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.012,-0.111,0.077 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.006,-0.087,0.085 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.017,-0.099,0.056 +TFT,PatchTST,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.08,0.009,0.157 +TFT,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.064,-0.03,0.143 +TFT,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.4,0.04,0.663 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.245,0.142,0.329 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.357,-0.504,-0.234 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.203,-0.284,-0.135 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.209,-0.298,-0.134 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.205,-0.295,-0.131 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.245,-0.393,-0.106 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.154,-0.235,-0.086 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.143,-0.222,-0.074 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.141,-0.222,-0.071 AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.101,-0.164,-0.05 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.177,-0.331,-0.041 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.002,-0.049,0.059 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.018,-0.06,0.021 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.006,-0.093,0.08 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.088,0.037 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.074,-0.024,0.163 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.058,0.0,0.116 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.395,0.042,0.661 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.24,0.165,0.309 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.278,0.486 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.41,0.302,0.502 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.325,-0.432,-0.229 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.223,-0.132 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.181,-0.224,-0.143 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.241,-0.124 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.216,-0.362,-0.095 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.127,-0.163,-0.093 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.116,-0.15,-0.084 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.115,-0.147,-0.083 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.075,-0.118,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.15,-0.288,-0.031 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.025,-0.059,0.109 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.071,0.086 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.017,-0.059,0.09 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.039,0.081 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.096,0.002,0.191 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.01,0.169 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.403,0.057,0.668 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.257,0.152,0.353 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.405,0.266,0.51 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.424,0.286,0.526 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.709,-0.252 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3,-0.455,-0.174 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.306,-0.465,-0.175 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.302,-0.469,-0.165 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.345,-0.601,-0.13 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.246,-0.381,-0.126 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.361,-0.114 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.189,-0.312,-0.08 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.1,-0.215,0.017 +PatchTST,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.087,-0.187,-0.009 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.08,-0.195,0.023 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.106,-0.236,-0.002 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.018,-0.117,0.089 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.364,-0.035,0.647 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.179,0.071,0.277 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.637,-0.281 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.277,-0.411,-0.171 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.427,-0.164 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.279,-0.422,-0.163 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.321,-0.555,-0.133 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.225,-0.349,-0.118 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.337,-0.11 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.211,-0.333,-0.108 AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.168,-0.258,-0.09 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.25,-0.474,-0.07 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.06,-0.117,-0.003 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.081,-0.123,-0.048 +AutoTheta,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.068,-0.167,0.029 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.131,-0.0 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.203,0.01 +AutoTheta,PatchTST,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.018,-0.097,0.105 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.369,-0.012,0.652 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.193,0.137,0.247 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.353,0.251,0.43 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.277,0.447 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.192,-2.773,-0.411 AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.953,-2.38,-0.237 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.958,-2.393,-0.241 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-2.4,-0.236 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-1.013,-2.516,-0.266 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.881,-2.241,-0.188 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.872,-2.24,-0.181 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.809,-2.209,-0.142 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.905,-2.366,-0.197 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.665,-1.992,-0.055 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.869,-2.24,-0.181 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.809,-2.208,-0.142 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.698,-2.015,-0.07 +AutoETS,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.667,-1.963,-0.042 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.653,-1.949,-0.043 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.676,-2.014,-0.06 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.571,-1.834,0.034 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.586,-1.876,0.012 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,-0.301,-1.412,0.175 -AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.043,-1.076,0.378 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.014,-1.022,0.397 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.067,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.797,-0.399 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.825,-0.393 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.585,-0.803,-0.398 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.637,-0.962,-0.375 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.518,-0.722,-0.33 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.504,-0.709,-0.316 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.448,-0.611,-0.288 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.549,-0.858,-0.284 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.313,-0.414,-0.213 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.501,-0.706,-0.313 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.448,-0.612,-0.287 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.433,-0.244 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.324,-0.49,-0.165 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.315,-0.447,-0.197 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.347,-0.545,-0.179 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.218,-0.382,-0.076 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.239,-0.328,-0.159 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,0.231,-0.212,0.585 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.198,0.091,0.295 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.122,0.317 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.776,-0.774 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.975,-1.371,-0.63 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.389,-0.621 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.893,-1.279,-0.553 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.876,-1.258,-0.534 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.807,-1.152,-0.495 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.932,-1.47,-0.519 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.639,-0.922,-0.397 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.641,-0.945,-0.386 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.68,-1.04,-0.362 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.546,-0.756,-0.335 -Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.041,-0.607,0.518 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.248,-0.419,-0.101 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.032,0.021,0.044 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.3,-1.866,-0.83 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.04,-1.458,-0.682 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.049,-1.467,-0.677 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.356,-0.603 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.938,-1.342,-0.582 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.866,-1.232,-0.544 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.996,-1.564,-0.573 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.693,-0.988,-0.444 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.695,-1.006,-0.433 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.736,-1.111,-0.401 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.81,-0.383 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.014,-0.659,0.505 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.465,-0.138 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.033,-0.046,-0.022 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv index b5d270e1cda7f10c6a720fcf1b7ea0333e4944a4..7808461e41024337bf5036ceff6fee754a4f1d6c 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.038,0.07 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.067,0.202 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.133,0.063,0.207 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.008,0.135 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.061,0.201 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.188,0.116,0.258 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.18,0.111,0.244 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.119,0.266 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.186,0.116,0.256 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.207,0.141,0.269 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.17,0.328 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.18,0.095,0.254 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.207,0.14,0.269 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.208,0.142,0.275 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.164,0.324 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.237,0.153,0.317 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.188,0.33 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.277,0.199,0.353 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.203,0.387 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.399,0.29,0.491 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.288,0.436 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.332,0.512 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.075,0.037 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.119,0.014,0.216 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.12,0.01,0.221 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.65,0.449,0.85,0.116,0.007,0.216 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.176,0.074,0.27 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.168,0.08,0.25 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.074,0.275 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.167,0.064,0.266 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.195,0.103,0.277 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.197,0.1,0.287 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.233,0.128,0.331 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.226,0.118,0.325 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.25,0.159,0.329 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.266,0.165,0.357 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.354,0.262,0.436 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.253,-0.072 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.275,-0.015 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.07,-0.215,0.048 +TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.026,0.018 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.064,0.035,0.098 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.055,-0.053,0.136 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.068,0.037,0.103 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.062,0.034,0.095 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.055,-0.048,0.136 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.086,0.053,0.125 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.137,0.052,0.228 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.088,0.049,0.127 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.047,0.22 +TiRex,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.062,0.178 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.148,0.077,0.221 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.167,0.09,0.251 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.188,0.087,0.297 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.2,0.396 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.267,0.19,0.34 -TiRex,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.247,0.421 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.153,-0.261,-0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.136,-0.284,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.071,-0.223,0.052 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.004,-0.034,0.021 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.063,0.033,0.097 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.054,-0.047,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.101 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.061,0.032,0.094 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.054,-0.045,0.139 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.086,0.043,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.045,0.232 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.087,0.052,0.122 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.038,0.223 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.12,0.047,0.185 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.068,0.228 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.166,0.08,0.258 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.079,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.307,0.194,0.403 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.266,0.186,0.344 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.237,0.429 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.156,-0.008 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.066,-0.051,0.177 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.066,-0.055,0.182 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.129,0.005,0.24 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.008,0.231 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.146,0.042,0.24 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.194,0.085,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.148,0.034,0.25 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.101,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.222,0.109,0.322 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.242,0.11,0.353 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.352,0.228,0.461 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.315,0.215,0.405 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.383,0.264,0.482 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.251,-0.065 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.551,-0.131,-0.276,-0.007 +FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.018,0.025 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.004,-0.022,0.033 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.751,0.067,0.025,0.116 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.058,-0.047,0.146 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.071,0.033,0.114 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.058,-0.045,0.148 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.09,0.046,0.138 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.091,0.039,0.141 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.048,0.23 +FlowState,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.124,0.065,0.187 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.078,0.231 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.17,0.087,0.262 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.196,0.347 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.231,-0.348,-0.131 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.213,-0.37,-0.08 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.068,-0.109,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.067,-0.107,-0.034 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.249,0.65,-0.072,-0.131,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.01,-0.111,0.066 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.35,0.7,0.004,-0.023,0.031 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.01,-0.108,0.065 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.751,0.024,-0.012,0.062 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.025,-0.003,0.056 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.07,-0.028,0.163 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.061,-0.013,0.114 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.09,-0.0,0.168 +Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.11,0.021,0.2 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.217,0.127,0.299 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.219,-0.323,-0.125 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.201,-0.333,-0.087 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.058,-0.157,0.051 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.057,-0.161,0.045 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.062,-0.171,0.045 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.01,-0.071,0.1 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.014,-0.076,0.109 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.0,-0.057,0.042 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.033,-0.041,0.121 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.035,-0.042,0.113 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,-0.019,0.178 +CatBoost,TFT,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,-0.03,0.165 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.099,0.002,0.186 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.119,0.029,0.213 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.224,0.138,0.309 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.362,-0.135 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.379,-0.08 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.073,-0.115,-0.038 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.148,-0.317,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.077,-0.129,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.475,0.3,0.65,-0.004,-0.032,0.023 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.014,-0.122,0.071 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.475,0.3,0.65,-0.006,-0.032,0.019 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.014,-0.11,0.061 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.75,0.02,-0.025,0.064 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.074,-0.033,0.18 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.021,-0.011,0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.066,-0.043,0.174 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,-0.031,0.123 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.086,-0.014,0.17 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.008,0.208 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.129,0.008,0.253 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.257,0.121,0.363 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.213,0.119,0.299 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.292,0.176,0.39 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.229,-0.345,-0.131 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.066,-0.104,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.065,-0.104,-0.033 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.141,-0.301,-0.008 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.35,0.7,0.006,-0.02,0.031 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.751,0.026,-0.01,0.064 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.08,-0.017,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.027,-0.001,0.058 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.092,0.002,0.17 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.023,0.2 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.024,0.244 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.261,0.134,0.365 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.218,0.132,0.3 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.296,0.187,0.39 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.261,-0.368,-0.164 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.095,-0.142,-0.056 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.219,-0.341,-0.105 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.201,-0.363,-0.069 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.058,-0.158,0.046 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.057,-0.161,0.043 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.062,-0.173,0.043 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.01,-0.07,0.098 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.0,-0.044,0.054 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.014,-0.065,0.099 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.034,-0.042,0.122 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.035,-0.037,0.115 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.079,-0.036,0.179 +LightGBM,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.07,-0.038,0.167 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,-0.009,0.187 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.119,0.017,0.214 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.224,0.132,0.306 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.261,-0.368,-0.163 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.243,-0.384,-0.115 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.094,-0.143,-0.057 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.094,-0.152,-0.045 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.172,-0.317,-0.044 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.098,-0.16,-0.048 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.249,0.675,-0.025,-0.066,0.012 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.035,-0.138,0.039 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.675,-0.02,-0.068,0.025 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.249,0.675,-0.027,-0.068,0.009 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.035,-0.139,0.04 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.055,-0.018,0.129 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.001,-0.042,0.045 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.067,0.005,0.124 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.002,-0.042,0.045 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.026,0.12 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.038,-0.016,0.085 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,0.005,0.124 Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.088,0.024,0.156 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.112,0.022,0.207 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.241,0.132,0.329 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.197,0.128,0.262 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.182,0.356 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.335,-0.487,-0.205 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.296,-0.055 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.302,-0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.24,-0.412,-0.093 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.08,-0.219,0.032 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.087,-0.211,0.016 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.058,-0.148,0.017 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.057,-0.184,0.045 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.013,-0.03,0.049 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.035,0.004,0.065 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.06,0.016,0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.11,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.151,0.109,0.188 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.235,0.159,0.308 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.128,0.262 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.263,-0.379,-0.165 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.245,-0.402,-0.111 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.096,-0.146,-0.052 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.095,-0.139,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.173,-0.334,-0.035 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.1,-0.164,-0.041 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.026,-0.059,0.003 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.036,-0.127,0.04 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.022,-0.055,0.011 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.028,-0.062,0.001 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.001,-0.047,0.04 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.054,-0.047,0.156 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.036,-0.13,0.036 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.002,-0.047,0.04 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.045,-0.059,0.148 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.036,-0.051,0.107 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.066,-0.032,0.151 Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.087,-0.006,0.183 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.11,-0.008,0.23 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.24,0.101,0.351 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.196,0.103,0.284 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.276,0.155,0.379 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.48,-0.196 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.304,-0.495,-0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.282,-0.049 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.287,-0.04 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.152,-0.299,-0.051 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.075,-0.195,0.027 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.085,-0.217,0.019 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.07,-0.211,0.041 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.085,-0.217,0.034 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.049,-0.136,0.025 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.047,-0.174,0.056 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.009,-0.105,0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.022,-0.017,0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.044,0.022,0.068 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.158,0.121,0.192 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.311,-0.464,-0.18 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.292,-0.481,-0.133 +TFT,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.216,-0.066 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.137,-0.226,-0.049 +TFT,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.142,-0.23,-0.07 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.065,-0.129,0.013 +TFT,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.075,-0.198,0.03 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.14,0.03 +TFT,LightGBM,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.075,-0.2,0.037 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.039,-0.093,0.015 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.038,-0.12,0.048 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.009,-0.064,0.095 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,-0.033,0.095 +TFT,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.014,0.131 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.166,0.089,0.239 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.493,-0.231 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.333,-0.491,-0.189 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.174,-0.284,-0.083 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.173,-0.296,-0.073 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.41,-0.113 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.178,-0.301,-0.084 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.099,-0.202,0.0 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.11,-0.229,-0.002 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.094,-0.205,0.014 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.101,-0.204,-0.002 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.142,-0.005 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.013,-0.052,0.029 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.11,-0.23,0.009 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.073,-0.141,-0.005 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.071,-0.179,0.031 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.022,-0.058,0.016 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.105,0.032 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.022,-0.021,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.015,0.12 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.187,0.107,0.262 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.139,0.1,0.176 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.225,0.155,0.292 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.383,-0.546,-0.249 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.363,-0.555,-0.198 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.335,-0.099 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.2,-0.348,-0.087 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.285,-0.475,-0.123 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.205,-0.355,-0.095 +AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.124,-0.249,-0.021 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.135,-0.271,-0.03 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.119,-0.263,-0.008 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.25,-0.024 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.135,-0.273,-0.017 AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.097,-0.185,-0.024 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.036,-0.069,-0.004 AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.095,-0.223,0.006 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.046,-0.073,-0.022 +AutoTheta,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.151,0.014 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.023,-0.066,0.021 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.019,0.079 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.076,0.251 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.12,0.079,0.164 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.208,0.134,0.278 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.631,-0.254 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.232,-0.422,-0.095 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.231,-0.436,-0.086 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.319,-0.545,-0.124 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.149,-0.338,-0.008 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.323,-0.025 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.126,-0.261,-0.023 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.063,-0.13,-0.016 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.124,-0.298,0.008 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.05,-0.137,0.015 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.026,-0.086,0.019 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.146,0.035,0.239 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.028,0.152 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.187,0.093,0.267 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.663,-0.964,-0.408 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.443,-0.656,-0.25 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.442,-0.676,-0.24 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.544,-0.854,-0.296 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.345,-0.569,-0.138 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.353,-0.574,-0.155 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.318,-0.491,-0.152 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.246,-0.383,-0.124 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.316,-0.541,-0.112 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.229,-0.355,-0.12 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.335,-0.082 -Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.171,-0.315,-0.037 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.375,0.225,0.525,-0.058,-0.148,0.031 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.047,0.026,0.071 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.572,-0.772,-0.404 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.549,-0.772,-0.355 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.364,-0.514,-0.235 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.363,-0.524,-0.228 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.46,-0.681,-0.274 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.532,-0.243 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.277,-0.426,-0.145 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.289,-0.447,-0.16 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.271,-0.426,-0.135 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.279,-0.429,-0.152 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.289,-0.44,-0.152 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.246,-0.354,-0.147 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.177,-0.231,-0.122 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.244,-0.396,-0.115 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.188,-0.238,-0.138 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.199,-0.315,-0.098 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.162,-0.213,-0.111 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.136,-0.197,-0.086 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.179,-0.029 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.625,0.475,0.775,0.055,-0.032,0.129 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.1,0.03,0.167 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.051,-0.497 -Drift,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.727,-0.327 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.75,-0.311 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.621,-0.932,-0.359 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.412,-0.638,-0.213 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.421,-0.639,-0.23 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.552,-0.223 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.308,-0.445,-0.189 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.382,-0.61,-0.183 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.291,-0.412,-0.184 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.262,-0.386,-0.155 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.23,-0.365,-0.103 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.05,-0.076,-0.026 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.111,-0.2,-0.031 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv index afeed17223ea90ccdf139cf6f287e297265d5c52..3854e49cfabf840fdc0b6c19f7e97325ab2fa12e 100644 --- a/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/domain_retail/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.126,0.06,0.196 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.018,-0.048,0.087 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.121,0.056,0.189 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.071,-0.006,0.147 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.124,0.055,0.196 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.245 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.114,0.243 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.179,0.113,0.245 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.203,0.132,0.268 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.215,0.374 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.258,0.199,0.314 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.285,0.181,0.379 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.201,0.365 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.211,0.352 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.255,0.432 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.332,0.765 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.275,0.38 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.244,0.462 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.264,0.384 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.404,0.561 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.488,0.669 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.505,0.682 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.144,-0.244,-0.064 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.124,-0.271,0.002 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.006,-0.025,0.014 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.063,-0.209,0.061 +TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.003,-0.026,0.02 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.094 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.061,0.035,0.091 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.06,0.034,0.093 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,0.051,0.13 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.116,0.279 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.087,0.05,0.13 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.151,0.113,0.191 +TiRex,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.182,0.12,0.241 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.183,0.104,0.267 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.18,0.118,0.243 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.253,0.167,0.338 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.526,0.225,0.736 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.233,0.146,0.302 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.269,0.18,0.357 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.233,0.146,0.301 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.332,0.489 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.429,0.611 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.448,0.625 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.095,0.046 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.11,-0.002,0.213 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.105,-0.006,0.205 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.107,-0.003,0.207 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.164,0.061,0.258 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.164,0.056,0.261 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.188,0.087,0.276 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.153,0.332 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.272,0.137,0.386 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.273,0.168,0.364 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.27,0.169,0.35 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.317,0.241,0.388 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.349,0.21,0.458 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.317,0.228,0.4 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.478,0.38,0.561 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.138,-0.233,-0.059 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.006,-0.014,0.024 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.117,-0.259,0.006 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.057,-0.2,0.063 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.025,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.067,0.037,0.1 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.725,0.95,0.067,0.038,0.097 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.066,0.036,0.099 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.093,0.047,0.143 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.202,0.117,0.289 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.156,0.12,0.192 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.187,0.121,0.252 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.103,0.276 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.184,0.119,0.251 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.257,0.165,0.346 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.527,0.231,0.737 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.237,0.154,0.309 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.186,0.365 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.237,0.153,0.309 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.331,0.495 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.428,0.616 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.45,0.629 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.077,-0.172,0.006 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.059,-0.065,0.173 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.054,-0.068,0.167 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.117,-0.005,0.229 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.116,-0.01,0.228 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.142,0.033,0.24 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.6,0.925,0.244,0.136,0.336 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.201,0.092,0.303 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.228,0.116,0.318 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.297,0.169,0.408 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.551,0.27,0.751 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.448,0.334,0.545 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.559,0.436,0.655 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.575,0.456,0.668 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.141,-0.243,-0.058 +FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.003,-0.02,0.026 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.12,-0.261,0.003 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.03,0.024 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.064,0.02,0.112 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.064,0.026,0.107 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.09,0.039,0.143 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.153,0.102,0.203 +FlowState,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.185,0.114,0.252 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.104,0.274 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.182,0.12,0.251 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.235,0.146,0.31 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.271,0.174,0.364 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.235,0.147,0.311 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.415,0.33,0.495 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.219,-0.325,-0.128 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.104,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.197,-0.347,-0.064 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.072,-0.112,-0.038 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.068,-0.127,-0.02 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.475,0.3,0.65,0.0,-0.024,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.028,-0.014,0.069 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.065,0.126 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.062,0.191 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.13,0.048,0.213 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.062,0.188 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.183,0.101,0.245 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.221,0.136,0.304 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.183,0.099,0.246 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.286,0.451 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.322,-0.129 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.065,-0.1,-0.036 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.197,-0.353,-0.059 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.05,0.275,-0.072,-0.107,-0.039 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.132,-0.296,0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.068,-0.12,-0.027 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.35,0.7,-0.0,-0.022,0.023 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.35,0.7,-0.001,-0.023,0.021 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.028,-0.02,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.144,0.053,0.238 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.065,0.127 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.053,0.195 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.13,0.038,0.225 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.126,0.055,0.194 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.106,0.299 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.498,0.179,0.722 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.183,0.094,0.251 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.221,0.129,0.311 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.183,0.102,0.248 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.375,0.282,0.455 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.501,0.387,0.59 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.411,0.602 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.218,-0.324,-0.127 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.064,-0.102,-0.036 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.07,-0.11,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.131,-0.295,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.475,0.3,0.65,0.001,-0.022,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.029,-0.012,0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.063,0.23 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.096,0.066,0.128 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.065,0.19 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.205,0.115,0.291 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.501,0.186,0.725 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.375,0.287,0.452 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.502,0.387,0.587 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.519,0.41,0.603 Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.254,-0.366,-0.152 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.096,-0.149,-0.054 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.096,-0.149,-0.053 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.231,-0.382,-0.095 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.102,-0.167,-0.049 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.165,-0.316,-0.034 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.099,-0.166,-0.041 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.029,-0.074,0.013 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.029,-0.082,0.019 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.03,-0.075,0.012 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.12,0.055,0.184 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.069,0.019,0.123 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.104,0.039,0.16 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.044,0.168 Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.101,0.059,0.146 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.112,0.251 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.488,0.156,0.72 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.159,0.071,0.225 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.199,0.115,0.28 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.159,0.07,0.231 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.279,0.424 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.378,0.569 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.505,0.402,0.583 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.425,-0.597,-0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.387,-0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.253,-0.406,-0.133 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.075,0.4,-0.324,-0.506,-0.158 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.313,-0.056 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.17,-0.298,-0.067 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.136,-0.226,-0.059 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.058,-0.181,0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.022,-0.075,0.021 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.07,0.018,0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.429,0.064,0.691 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.269,0.21,0.321 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.314,0.502 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.339,0.519 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.347,-0.457,-0.248 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.177,-0.236,-0.127 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.323,-0.497,-0.18 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.237,-0.136 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.251,-0.435,-0.101 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.181,-0.255,-0.114 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.144,-0.07 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.145,-0.069 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.106,-0.147,-0.07 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.074,-0.14,-0.019 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.055,-0.05,0.154 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.037,-0.052,0.119 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.038,-0.067,0.138 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,-0.055,0.116 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.12,0.006,0.226 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.447,0.097,0.697 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.097,0.016,0.165 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.139,0.033,0.243 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.097,0.014,0.163 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.309,0.203,0.402 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.449,0.314,0.553 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.468,0.337,0.567 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.399,-0.611,-0.222 +TFT,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.223,-0.317,-0.137 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.374,-0.63,-0.159 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.23,-0.337,-0.138 +TFT,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.226,-0.337,-0.129 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.236,-0.066 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.242,-0.055 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.116,-0.191,-0.041 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.039,-0.135,0.049 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.001,-0.108,0.115 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.003,-0.098,0.084 +TFT,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,-0.084,0.171 +TFT,PatchTST,0.725,0.55,0.9,0.106,0.038,0.179 +TFT,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.062,-0.081,0.17 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.282,0.188,0.373 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.575,-0.252 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.224,-0.365,-0.116 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.375,-0.572,-0.201 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.231,-0.381,-0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.228,-0.378,-0.116 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.149,-0.271,-0.051 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.149,-0.29,-0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.201,-0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.04,-0.161,0.063 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.001,-0.13,0.098 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.004,-0.048,0.029 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.061,-0.049,0.151 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.105,-0.024,0.204 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.061,-0.051,0.165 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.282,0.229,0.328 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.395,-0.544,-0.267 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.321,-0.134 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.369,-0.539,-0.204 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.226,-0.336,-0.135 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.296,-0.466,-0.132 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.222,-0.336,-0.137 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.232,-0.066 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.144,-0.241,-0.058 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.145,-0.235,-0.069 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.17,-0.062 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.021,-0.022,0.07 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.171,-0.063 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.035,-0.131,0.052 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.003,-0.091,0.089 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.004,-0.03,0.046 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.089,0.037,0.149 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.435,0.075,0.691 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.065,-0.038,0.149 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.109,0.0,0.206 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.065,-0.036,0.157 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.219,0.346 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.327,0.513 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.355,0.529 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.759,-0.343 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.338,-0.51,-0.2 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.346,-0.529,-0.198 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.423,-0.689,-0.203 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.256,-0.426,-0.119 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.258,-0.411,-0.13 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.334,-0.126 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.075,-0.132,-0.018 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.137,-0.293,-0.006 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.098,-0.175,-0.038 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.392,-0.012,0.671 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.214,0.158,0.27 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.272,0.447 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.299,0.464 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.396,-3.252,-0.496 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.109,-2.782,-0.291 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.115,-2.802,-0.3 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-1.228,-3.019,-0.37 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.99,-2.591,-0.219 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.003,-2.631,-0.228 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.952,-2.567,-0.185 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.75,-2.233,-0.069 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.809,-2.3,-0.108 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.769,-2.239,-0.081 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.644,-2.042,0.012 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,-0.32,-1.467,0.188 -AutoETS,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.053,-1.109,0.384 -AutoETS,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.021,-1.06,0.404 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.613,-0.38 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.303,-0.433,-0.17 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.464,-0.633,-0.317 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.311,-0.446,-0.182 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.307,-0.449,-0.171 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.224,-0.324,-0.113 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.223,-0.336,-0.104 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.19,-0.29,-0.076 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.107,-0.197,-0.016 +CatBoost,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.066,-0.207,0.077 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.065,-0.178,0.046 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.069,-0.175,0.037 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.047,-0.096,0.183 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.0,-0.057,0.042 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.235,0.12,0.328 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.857,-0.324 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.367,-0.556,-0.22 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.536,-0.845,-0.266 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.375,-0.574,-0.228 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.371,-0.572,-0.21 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.283,-0.437,-0.157 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.283,-0.451,-0.148 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.248,-0.389,-0.13 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.161,-0.321,-0.034 +PatchTST,TFT,0.275,0.1,0.45,-0.118,-0.217,-0.04 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.117,-0.256,0.024 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.122,-0.259,-0.0 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.049,-0.224,0.088 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.049,-0.213,0.085 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.197,0.086,0.299 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.492,-0.624,-0.359 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.303,-0.431,-0.171 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.464,-0.666,-0.295 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.311,-0.447,-0.181 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.307,-0.452,-0.173 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.223,-0.327,-0.11 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.223,-0.329,-0.114 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.189,-0.3,-0.075 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.107,-0.194,-0.014 +LightGBM,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.066,-0.204,0.075 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.065,-0.197,0.049 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.069,-0.186,0.035 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.0,-0.044,0.054 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.047,-0.093,0.175 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.235,0.12,0.332 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.95,-1.275,-0.677 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.703,-0.957,-0.497 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.914,-1.278,-0.612 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-0.982,-0.495 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.811,-1.198,-0.501 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.709,-0.982,-0.493 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.599,-0.822,-0.4 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.599,-0.835,-0.393 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.601,-0.824,-0.402 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.387 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.368,-0.473,-0.266 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.388 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.447,-0.673,-0.255 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.393,-0.595,-0.232 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.392,-0.487,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.398,-0.529,-0.28 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.273,-0.369,-0.188 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.05,0.45,0.242,-0.231,0.595 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.307,-0.488,-0.137 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.246,-0.426,-0.094 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.307,-0.498,-0.137 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.725,0.6,0.85,0.202,0.09,0.304 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.23,0.125,0.325 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.443,-2.025,-0.952 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.135,-1.569,-0.753 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.148,-1.606,-0.749 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.27,-1.898,-0.773 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.004,-1.437,-0.632 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.006,-1.422,-0.631 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.948,-1.319,-0.609 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.715,-1.009,-0.457 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.814,-1.235,-0.458 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-1.055,-0.486 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.807,-0.374 -Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.051,-0.623,0.526 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.275,0.15,0.4,-0.253,-0.437,-0.099 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.036,0.022,0.051 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.534,-2.145,-1.018 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.214,-1.665,-0.811 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.693,-0.82 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.353,-2.009,-0.838 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.078,-1.51,-0.697 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.08,-1.516,-0.696 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.02,-1.398,-0.672 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.778,-1.08,-0.514 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.88,-1.308,-0.508 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.816,-1.123,-0.55 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.654,-0.866,-0.426 -Drift,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.021,-0.678,0.515 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.3,-0.481,-0.143 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.037,-0.053,-0.022 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 8ecc18bc63bac9b97163cbed6d474bebd94c16cd..7e061a4c5518650564d49f30e49fe81a44a8883c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,87.5,32.33462583489032,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.14285714285714,27.393757851738563,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.14285714285714,28.58993577814578,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,71.07142857142857,27.327119457216774,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.57142857142856,26.21901130113915,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,64.28571428571429,25.161403711604645,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,64.28571428571429,23.2064084542026,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,51.25000000000001,22.24063378407398,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.28571428571429,19.015945347692732,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoETS,36.07142857142858,17.603485534435016,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,33.92857142857143,14.206772558259006,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,32.85714285714285,14.04647577833794,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.392857142857142,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.142857142857146,-12.05830008930513,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.071428571428572,-13.72534923283335,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.50000000000003,32.33462591493779,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,83.5,28.589935763752727,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,83.0,27.39375784946123,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,74.0,27.32711942416035,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,71.24999999999999,26.219011288531625,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.5,25.612362207783157,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,65.0,23.206408545048664,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,64.49999999999999,25.150075353237867,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,62.87499999999999,27.071675026391638,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +LightGBM,51.25000000000001,20.962768609596882,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,48.0,21.104084940286395,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.75,19.610053947514793,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +TFT,41.0,16.24394791361502,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,39.25,17.60348552820039,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.25,14.206772560096903,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.0,14.046475775318722,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,27.250000000000004,8.426290992667196,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,25.0,8.013909721452405,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.125,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.5,-12.058300085396546,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.5,-13.725349207058368,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 182b6536def361a147efb73ad650cdd6f03117e2..10dbe521514532f6b5691c71c4f27020fc551c3b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.28571428571429,40.241553662568045,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.07142857142858,35.70932539579903,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.78571428571428,36.215123642926486,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,75.0,35.235748261795464,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,73.92857142857142,34.57369587246277,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,33.56878978918307,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.32142857142858,30.731316106319685,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Sundial-Base,47.14285714285714,26.53990685654952,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,42.142857142857146,23.310736729304406,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,38.214285714285715,21.22121312418056,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,35.35714285714285,20.12076697801173,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,26.071428571428573,15.776905389926565,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.035714285714285,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Naive,9.642857142857144,-43.69147280742762,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.571428571428571,-44.7554216841189,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.0,40.241553705242325,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,86.75,35.70932536691862,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,85.50000000000001,36.21512359135406,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,79.25,35.235748193480255,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,77.75000000000001,34.57369581909669,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,73.25000000000001,33.231151028003566,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +Toto-1.0,71.0,33.533977961386974,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,67.875,34.19450526988148,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Sundial-Base,51.74999999999999,26.539906909008327,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +TFT,48.12500000000001,22.27606386903942,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,46.75000000000001,24.79006525446703,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,41.75,21.22121308421785,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,38.25,20.120766929488475,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,34.25,14.9301643137155,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.12499999999999,14.294397638336442,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,31.25,15.776905337592694,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,31.0,13.347203632390958,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,30.999999999999993,13.191993375720667,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.124999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.75,-43.691472811269946,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.500000000000001,-44.75542175816074,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 7a26151826a061e5f35bd24cb746b86860a3b6ec..380d3dca8d04cf2ca5ce536e84ea91f5ebe565f7 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.21428571428572,34.73588594604664,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,82.5,30.331123145065753,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714286,30.04838154281978,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.0,29.395644929393384,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.14285714285715,27.11185183289192,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,62.85714285714287,27.120126304305725,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -Sundial-Base,61.78571428571429,24.782966216672285,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,57.321428571428555,25.898630077241936,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Stat. Ensemble,46.42857142857142,20.048347663551425,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,36.07142857142858,17.777947817676132,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,36.07142857142857,18.813705921644818,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.28571428571428,14.370876577265967,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.64285714285714,-11.759514056529575,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,11.607142857142858,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.714285714285714,-13.858459934925316,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.5,34.735886193284756,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.75,30.048380594127288,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.5,30.331123518560123,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,73.75,29.395646169542744,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.75,27.111852608105036,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,67.625,31.05700816902527,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +FlowState,66.25,25.835963292065955,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,64.25000000000001,24.782966501614755,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.74999999999999,27.089976643088885,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +LightGBM,54.249999999999986,22.597567437556975,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.999999999999986,20.770111290736605,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,46.00000000000001,21.484842601837784,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,38.5,17.77794697606161,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,38.49999999999999,18.81370670043465,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +TFT,37.75000000000001,15.894814429818338,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,32.25,14.370876624664398,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,28.250000000000004,7.249016480338232,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,28.000000000000004,9.543981657156008,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.0,-11.759514098130408,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.125000000000004,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.25,-13.85845893302955,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv index c8c1c5778d270b691f9f71929822e85e04da66db..337d78c0b343d82f3b1530fb312b12c1053b55ae 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.21428571428571,44.77656337400558,0.0,0.34862936275497514,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,84.28571428571429,40.60690863759879,0.0,0.12056570828620417,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,83.57142857142857,40.69540369974936,0.0,0.5763130827970966,0.1,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,75.71428571428572,39.91164248768357,0.0,0.24129671231988042,0.4,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.35714285714286,38.313765874575154,0.0,0.1322703744317049,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.42857142857143,38.175979444656846,0.0,10.207355941916667,0.1,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.96428571428571,36.67704253513349,0.0,59.46589885165178,0.0,10.0 -Sundial-Base,48.57142857142856,31.246086693430332,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,43.21428571428571,25.454460772291498,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,5.0 -AutoARIMA,41.07142857142857,25.85193480620731,0.0,74.34524439111118,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,33.214285714285715,21.589312538875138,0.0,3.3284211108491193,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.000000000000007,16.511025466699557,0.0,3.1050995276688527,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.178571428571427,0.0,0.0,0.33344394039464936,0.0,0.0 -Naive,10.0,-44.1490350185211,0.0,0.33027376482294407,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.214285714285714,-45.70449009907933,0.0,0.3192311944547016,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.5,44.776563341107924,0.0,0.35793460493470153,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,86.75,40.695403658294204,0.0,0.575423012749835,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,86.75,40.60690859146885,0.0,0.1291116508215071,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,80.5,39.911642441923746,0.0,0.24187414339990285,0.4,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,75.25,38.31376582969731,0.0,0.13213293969508144,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,72.0,36.62739364766787,0.0,0.8854096169209039,0.1,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,71.375,40.520744318361224,0.0,79.45039829948598,0.0,5.0 +Toto-1.0,70.49999999999999,38.13822702047026,0.0,10.283148248083332,0.1,0.0 +Sundial-Base,53.49999999999999,31.246086652472282,0.0,8.099000643582091,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.5,26.721365391127915,0.0,145.59674209388467,0.0,0.0 +TFT,43.375,22.687799915564245,323.36690221656073,0.2700071295171898,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,42.5,25.85193474759363,0.0,73.60630374002452,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,35.75,18.15925526450699,287.64413890660023,0.2739963583326908,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,35.50000000000001,21.589312484907442,0.0,3.3519659038334995,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,34.49999999999999,18.53997314875826,1.2347621929848485,0.1353946523502825,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,32.74999999999999,17.368916958295777,17.24107904783333,0.14455932012545694,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,32.375,18.494720285493216,491.09394703656005,0.4963672847508972,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,28.249999999999996,16.511025407352477,0.0,3.0638472506820937,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.124999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.3410607536415753,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.5,-44.14903496940348,0.0,0.31280659340063144,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.75,-45.704490127704766,0.0,0.3111704808059156,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv index 4e1d6474d84d268a1dd4da8585ba42bfb8f1816d..e9a62d516a25d1ce69cfd65110dee7e060a1ab4d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -4,223 +4,254 @@ Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.004,0.116 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.068,0.007,0.144 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.069,0.013,0.135 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.083,0.034,0.145 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.09,0.034,0.152 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.052,0.194 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.096,0.031,0.163 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.13,0.052,0.21 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.164,0.11,0.226 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.096,0.032,0.162 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.072,0.012,0.146 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.144,0.05,0.249 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.066,0.228 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.158,0.103,0.218 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.192,0.104,0.283 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.118,0.24 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.211,0.141,0.283 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.213,0.149,0.284 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.255,0.4 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.313,0.486 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.33,0.491 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.131,0.004 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.004,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.017,0.001,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.032,0.008,0.064 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.75,0.575,0.925,0.04,0.002,0.094 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.07,0.017,0.151 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.046,0.022,0.07 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,-0.026,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.075,0.164 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.046,0.022,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.021,-0.077,0.098 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.097,-0.013,0.206 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.095,-0.005,0.19 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.112,0.073,0.157 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.076,0.243 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.133,0.089,0.18 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.168,0.111,0.229 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.244 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.221,0.371 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.363,0.286,0.442 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.372,0.306,0.441 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.073,-0.169,-0.007 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.017,-0.043,0.004 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.001,-0.025,0.024 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.016,-0.013,0.041 +TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.024,-0.017,0.069 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,0.002,0.123 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.03,-0.002,0.059 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.066,-0.053,0.152 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.06,0.153 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.03,-0.002,0.058 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.004,-0.104,0.079 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.081,-0.044,0.195 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,-0.035,0.181 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.097,0.055,0.142 +TiRex,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.059,0.221 TiRex,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.119,0.07,0.168 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.154,0.1,0.217 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.223 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.214,0.351 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.281,0.426 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.427 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.074,-0.156,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.018,-0.035,-0.001 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.001,-0.024,0.024 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.015,-0.006,0.043 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.016,0.077 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.005,0.136 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,0.005,0.052 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.05,0.167 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.103,0.064,0.146 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.029,0.006,0.052 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.004,-0.101,0.086 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.081,-0.036,0.196 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,-0.033,0.176 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.096,0.06,0.136 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.132,0.058,0.228 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.118,0.076,0.163 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.153,0.096,0.221 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.155,0.096,0.23 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.273,0.208,0.361 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.275,0.427 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.292,0.425 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.169,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.033,-0.069,-0.008 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.016,-0.043,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.015,-0.045,0.006 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.725,0.008,-0.017,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.003,0.099 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.029,0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.061,0.137 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.044,0.137 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.014,-0.028,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.012,-0.117,0.07 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.067,-0.063,0.188 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.065,-0.055,0.168 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.082,0.04,0.13 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.055,0.198 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.049,0.158 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.205 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.142,0.093,0.197 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.207,0.334 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.274,0.412 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.289,0.414 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.099,-0.179,-0.036 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.425,-0.042,-0.104,-0.002 +FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.025,-0.074,0.016 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.083,0.015 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.275,0.7,-0.008,-0.041,0.017 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.001,0.068 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.006,-0.068,0.053 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.02,-0.131,0.07 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.059,-0.082,0.187 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.057,-0.075,0.169 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.075,0.003,0.137 +FlowState,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.112,0.06,0.168 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.097,0.015,0.165 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.133,0.051,0.208 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.207,0.312 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.241,-0.055 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.075,-0.178,-0.018 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.058,-0.14,-0.002 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.157,0.005 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.041,-0.11,0.003 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.073,-0.001 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.026,-0.135,0.044 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.012,-0.089,0.08 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.051,0.126 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.026,-0.134,0.044 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.053,-0.179,0.041 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.028,-0.145,0.171 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.13,0.156 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.045,-0.059,0.124 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.083,0.034,0.128 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.068,-0.047,0.15 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.0,0.193 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.107,0.069,0.148 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.197,0.268 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.253,0.381 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.263,0.394 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.106,-0.194,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.048,-0.075,-0.022 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.031,-0.062,0.002 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.055,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.049,0.028 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.025,-0.046,0.119 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.106,-0.194,-0.033 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.048,-0.075,-0.023 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.031,-0.062,0.002 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.03,-0.055,-0.006 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.014,-0.048,0.027 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.006,-0.056,0.064 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.025,-0.046,0.118 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.038,-0.089,0.144 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.076,0.034,0.121 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.026,-0.134,0.061 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.053,-0.07,0.173 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.067,0.156 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.069,0.029,0.109 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.106,0.022,0.213 Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.049,0.133 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.19 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.067,0.212 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.179,0.345 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.257,0.414 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.342,0.279,0.409 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.149,-0.266,-0.055 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.089,-0.216,0.025 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.18,0.05 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.2,0.047 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.158,0.058 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.013,-0.087,0.082 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.039,-0.169,0.082 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.07,0.19 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.179,0.344 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.078,-0.171,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.021,-0.109,0.071 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.004,-0.085,0.094 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.004,-0.094,0.092 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.012,-0.075,0.105 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.02,-0.075,0.116 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.05,-0.043,0.152 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.026,-0.065,0.118 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.078,0.149 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,-0.066,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.094,-0.021,0.202 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.095,0.008,0.198 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.222,0.153,0.304 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.306,0.21,0.425 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.316,0.22,0.434 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.197,-0.291,-0.123 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.197,-0.081 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.18,-0.063 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.114,-0.171,-0.068 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.159,-0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.055,-0.144,0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.082,-0.137,-0.036 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.175,0.072 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.077,-0.024,0.181 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.076,-0.014,0.165 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.093,0.014,0.179 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.129,0.0,0.252 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.115,0.031,0.201 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.15,0.07,0.234 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.271,0.187,0.362 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.168,-0.331,-0.053 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.107,-0.259,0.013 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.089,-0.242,0.042 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.088,-0.244,0.035 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.071,-0.232,0.059 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.063,-0.231,0.076 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.029,-0.206,0.127 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.056,-0.209,0.066 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.084,-0.22,0.023 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.002,-0.039,0.037 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.017,-0.144,0.137 +LightGBM,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.056,-0.115,0.219 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,-0.114,0.16 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.079,-0.075,0.195 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.21,0.055,0.348 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.166,-0.295,-0.07 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.105,-0.234,0.005 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.087,-0.22,0.034 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.214,0.032 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.069,-0.202,0.052 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.061,-0.204,0.07 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.185,0.115 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.054,-0.184,0.063 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.082,-0.197,0.014 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.002,-0.039,0.037 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.019,-0.107,0.132 +CatBoost,TFT,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.058,-0.093,0.212 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.042,-0.085,0.151 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.08,-0.057,0.192 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.211,0.072,0.342 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.188,-0.278,-0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.126,-0.187,-0.078 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.107,-0.165,-0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.106,-0.158,-0.064 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.09,-0.149,-0.041 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.081,-0.159,-0.003 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.047,-0.141,0.056 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.074,-0.122,-0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.102,-0.218,-0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.017,-0.158,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.019,-0.151,0.096 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,-0.009,0.042 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,0.005,0.104 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.058,0.002,0.143 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.19,0.101,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.183,0.374 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.288,0.199,0.374 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.04,-0.062,0.161 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.024,0.005,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.063,0.019,0.11 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.196,0.112,0.293 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.395,-0.116 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.173,-0.321,-0.082 +TFT,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.283,-0.062 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.295,-0.062 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.247,-0.058 +TFT,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.126,-0.201,-0.063 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.091,-0.147,-0.035 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.119,-0.271,-0.023 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.148,-0.337,-0.0 +TFT,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.06,-0.281,0.103 +TFT,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.062,-0.268,0.085 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.042,-0.191,0.059 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.016,-0.176,0.088 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.132,0.135 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.162,0.11,0.219 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.218,-0.316,-0.133 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.154,-0.22,-0.098 AutoETS,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.135,-0.202,-0.075 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.134,-0.195,-0.083 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.188,-0.052 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.108,-0.197,-0.016 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.073,-0.176,0.045 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.154,-0.052 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.06,-0.203,0.062 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.017,-0.044,0.009 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.153,-0.051 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.13,-0.251,-0.032 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.191,0.102 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.044,-0.178,0.079 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.025,-0.048,-0.005 +AutoETS,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.016,-0.097,0.15 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.04,-0.015,0.097 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.018,0.131 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.176,0.084,0.283 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.265,0.161,0.361 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.275,0.183,0.363 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.268,-0.395,-0.164 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.201,-0.297,-0.125 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.182,-0.278,-0.111 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.181,-0.283,-0.106 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.258,-0.083 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.153,-0.263,-0.054 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.239,-0.0 AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.146,-0.234,-0.076 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.103,-0.253,0.021 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.115,-0.005 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.176,-0.306,-0.075 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.085,-0.242,0.07 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.087,-0.238,0.054 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.067,-0.124,-0.019 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.024,-0.156,0.117 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.041,-0.107,0.015 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.002,-0.093,0.103 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.142,0.039,0.25 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.121,0.342 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.246,0.141,0.346 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.27,-0.397,-0.175 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.323,-0.12 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.287,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.183,-0.298,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.165,-0.245,-0.102 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.119,-0.174,-0.074 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.149,-0.27,-0.071 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.105,-0.247,-0.008 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.061,-0.167,-0.002 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.043,-0.15,0.018 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.002,-0.115,0.085 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.14,0.092,0.186 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.163,0.308 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.171,0.325 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.668,-0.342 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.591,-0.283 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.377,-0.541,-0.272 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.376,-0.565,-0.263 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.355,-0.501,-0.261 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.453,-0.261 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.366,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.526,-0.217 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.286,-0.436,-0.18 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.235,-0.411,-0.113 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.524,-0.217 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.371,-0.568,-0.23 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.265,-0.534,-0.058 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.267,-0.519,-0.077 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.244,-0.414,-0.127 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.194,-0.28,-0.124 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.214,-0.395,-0.092 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.166,-0.333,-0.04 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.163,-0.229,-0.101 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.108,0.029,0.194 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.027,0.218 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.656,-0.945,-0.455 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.569,-0.792,-0.4 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.543,-0.743,-0.391 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.542,-0.746,-0.38 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.519,-0.699,-0.378 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.615,-0.338 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.497,-0.706,-0.346 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.441,-0.74,-0.266 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.384,-0.597,-0.223 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.36,-0.565,-0.192 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.306,-0.52,-0.138 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.445,-0.195 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.121,-0.24,-0.03 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.015,-0.023,0.042 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.681,-0.963,-0.492 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.593,-0.79,-0.441 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.566,-0.745,-0.427 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.739,-0.413 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.541,-0.708,-0.406 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.481,-0.65,-0.356 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.52,-0.691,-0.387 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.463,-0.768,-0.282 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.404,-0.599,-0.248 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.38,-0.569,-0.224 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.326,-0.529,-0.164 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.323,-0.481,-0.206 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.279,-0.028 -Drift,Naive,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.015,-0.043,0.023 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv index 988182f661966d508cc6f5839047a89ba89d1b84..4f9ad75d7a6e49e50b4c5ca44714d95f1bdecb4b 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,223 +4,254 @@ Chronos-2,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,0.01,0.142 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.063,0.008,0.13 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.077,0.019,0.148 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.087,0.033,0.151 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.1,0.031,0.173 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.06,0.221 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.105,0.048,0.167 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.101,0.032,0.173 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.092,0.026,0.172 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.187,0.125,0.255 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.157,0.29 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.205,0.142,0.273 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.231,0.127,0.336 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.241,0.162,0.318 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.252,0.186,0.316 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.211,0.369 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.206,0.383 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.189,0.407 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.335,0.481 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.506,0.665 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.587,0.512,0.666 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.076,-0.166,-0.01 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.026,0.008 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.007,-0.014,0.029 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.017,0.0,0.036 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.032,-0.002,0.06 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,-0.049,0.161 +TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.037,0.006,0.076 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.033,-0.001,0.06 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.023,-0.093,0.113 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.078,0.184 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.107,0.218 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.145,0.1,0.195 +TiRex,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.173,0.093,0.263 TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.123,0.25 TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.195,0.141,0.254 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.173,0.305 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.244,0.178,0.304 +TiRex,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.153,0.343 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.297,0.424 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.486,0.622 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.49,0.623 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.067,-0.149,-0.008 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.008,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.002,0.034 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.875,0.025,0.005,0.046 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.04,0.01,0.068 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.079,-0.034,0.172 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.045,0.011,0.09 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,0.011,0.068 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.031,-0.073,0.119 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.132,0.085,0.2 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.116,0.224 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.152,0.106,0.202 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.179,0.097,0.275 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.19,0.129,0.256 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.201,0.149,0.259 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.172,0.316 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.177,0.315 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.155,0.353 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.299,0.435 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.485,0.629 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.492,0.628 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.084,-0.174,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.007,-0.03,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.035,0.002 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.3,0.6,0.01,-0.007,0.033 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.025,-0.004,0.05 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,-0.055,0.163 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.03,-0.006,0.08 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.026,-0.003,0.051 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.016,-0.098,0.11 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.194 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.155,0.105,0.208 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.139,0.099,0.182 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.167,0.08,0.268 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.178,0.117,0.248 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.141,0.245 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.163,0.305 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.239,0.164,0.307 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.244,0.14,0.348 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.352,0.286,0.426 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.477,0.622 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.553,0.483,0.624 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.095,-0.178,-0.034 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.018,-0.037,-0.0 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.5,-0.026,-0.048,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.4,0.7,-0.01,-0.034,0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.026,0.048 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,-0.061,0.144 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.006,0.054 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.016,-0.025,0.048 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.006,-0.107,0.097 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.109,0.067,0.168 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.147,0.093,0.203 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.13,0.084,0.18 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.158,0.077,0.248 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.169,0.107,0.24 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.181,0.126,0.24 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.223,0.164,0.288 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.231,0.163,0.293 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.237,0.144,0.33 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.288,0.41 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.545,0.475,0.615 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.481,0.617 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.112,-0.209,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.033,-0.063,0.002 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.041,-0.073,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.026,-0.053,0.004 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.015,-0.05,0.026 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.117,-0.201,-0.05 +FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.039,-0.083,-0.006 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.047,-0.099,-0.011 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.031,-0.087,0.006 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.021,-0.057,0.006 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.005,-0.077,0.043 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.015,-0.128,0.081 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.091,0.06,0.126 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.044,0.178 +FlowState,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.141,0.07,0.215 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.152,0.072,0.231 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.164,0.083,0.235 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.215,0.15,0.273 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.133,0.302 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.279,0.386 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.112,-0.21,-0.033 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.034,-0.064,0.001 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.073,-0.011 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.026,-0.053,0.003 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.016,-0.051,0.025 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.005,-0.045,0.072 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.041,-0.096,0.148 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.096,0.027,0.182 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.134,0.078,0.19 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.157,0.094,0.227 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.118,0.222 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.211,0.14,0.297 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.336,0.263,0.42 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.538,0.462,0.612 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.471,0.61 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.283,-0.064 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.192,0.047 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.086,-0.207,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.07,-0.195,0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.168,0.058 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.043,-0.173,0.087 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.136,0.09 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.095,0.026,0.182 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.116,0.069,0.161 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.05,0.258 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.156,0.094,0.226 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.168,0.117,0.222 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.219,0.142,0.29 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.224,0.12,0.335 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.262,0.419 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.101,-0.208,-0.027 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.024,-0.128,0.085 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.032,-0.135,0.068 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.016,-0.123,0.089 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.006,-0.108,0.097 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.088,0.114 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.099,0.12 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.057,-0.026,0.15 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.097,-0.01,0.203 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.121,0.004,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.133,0.012,0.244 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.178,0.076,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.307,0.228,0.4 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.518,0.42,0.627 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.422,0.63 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.104,0.015,0.202 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.125,0.029,0.214 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.153,0.004,0.296 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.165,0.061,0.255 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.176,0.081,0.262 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.226,0.116,0.331 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.232,0.088,0.362 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.342,0.255,0.435 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.342,-0.143 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.226,-0.085 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.152,-0.249,-0.093 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.134,-0.241,-0.069 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.123,-0.202,-0.071 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.106,-0.223,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.061,-0.176,0.025 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.1,-0.144,-0.064 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.105,-0.223,-0.027 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.116,-0.253,-0.015 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.066,0.128 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.023,-0.083,0.11 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.055,-0.015,0.122 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.068,-0.04,0.165 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,-0.033,0.174 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.128,0.071,0.189 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.136,0.065,0.197 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.062,0.216 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.265,0.223,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.412,0.568 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.412,0.573 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.408,-0.187 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.279,-0.12 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.288,-0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.184,-0.263,-0.118 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.172,-0.255,-0.103 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.235,-0.085 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.107,-0.254,0.01 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.044,-0.147,0.061 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.259,-0.375,-0.165 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.17,-0.242,-0.111 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.179,-0.254,-0.118 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.161,-0.223,-0.11 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.15,-0.219,-0.092 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.216,-0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.193,-0.074 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.143,-0.273,-0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.123,0.077 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.044,0.088 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.04,-0.021,0.097 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.089,0.007,0.184 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.233,0.144,0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.466,0.366,0.559 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.47,0.376,0.559 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.032,-0.091,0.162 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.045,-0.004,0.094 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.058,0.023,0.104 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.116,0.033,0.199 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.122,-0.011,0.248 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.163,0.341 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.301,-0.505,-0.146 +TFT,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.209,-0.357,-0.102 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.219,-0.379,-0.107 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.2,-0.365,-0.087 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.188,-0.329,-0.084 +TFT,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.164,-0.275,-0.075 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.347,-0.053 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.181,-0.421,-0.004 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.058,-0.139,0.015 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.033,-0.194,0.084 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.154,0.14 +TFT,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.14,0.151 +TFT,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.086,0.011,0.157 +TFT,DeepAR,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.093,0.04,0.149 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.223,0.159,0.291 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.318,-0.467,-0.193 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.334,-0.14 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.235,-0.345,-0.148 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.216,-0.33,-0.132 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.204,-0.315,-0.12 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.186,-0.294,-0.104 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.137,-0.308,-0.004 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.18,-0.3,-0.077 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.185,-0.292,-0.103 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.197,-0.343,-0.065 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.072,-0.198,0.038 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.096,0.042 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.047,-0.104,0.004 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.014,-0.163,0.134 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.014,-0.063,0.085 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.065,-0.037,0.17 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.074,-0.022,0.163 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.081,-0.073,0.217 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.108,0.317 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.452,0.342,0.553 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.348,0.554 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.337,-0.463,-0.228 AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.242,-0.34,-0.164 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.252,-0.349,-0.175 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.324,-0.164 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.221,-0.316,-0.144 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.285,-0.134 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.153,-0.323,-0.012 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.196,-0.307,-0.091 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.202,-0.285,-0.133 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.214,-0.356,-0.089 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.211,0.032 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.042,-0.108,0.02 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.062,-0.116,-0.023 +AutoETS,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.178,0.123 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.014,-0.093,0.059 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.052,-0.031,0.15 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.061,-0.046,0.156 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.068,-0.083,0.216 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.201,0.099,0.306 -AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.444,0.337,0.542 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.448,0.35,0.54 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.409,-0.586,-0.267 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.439,-0.209 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.462,-0.208 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3,-0.438,-0.195 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.287,-0.404,-0.196 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.268,-0.423,-0.162 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.216,-0.41,-0.082 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.147,-0.233,-0.076 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.098,-0.226,-0.007 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.069,-0.205,0.036 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.177,0.03 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.158,0.102,0.209 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.414,0.325,0.495 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.418,0.325,0.505 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.621,-0.26 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.323,-0.436,-0.217 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.46,-0.215 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.314,-0.444,-0.196 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.3,-0.414,-0.194 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.274,-0.376,-0.176 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.28,-0.408,-0.166 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.293,-0.494,-0.131 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.158,-0.246,-0.069 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.131,-0.248,-0.034 +PatchTST,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.095,-0.187,-0.011 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.08,-0.195,0.022 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.065,-0.184,0.044 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.007,-0.077,0.084 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.149,0.069,0.229 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.434,-0.686,-0.233 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.333,-0.522,-0.181 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.344,-0.545,-0.183 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.323,-0.533,-0.163 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.31,-0.493,-0.168 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.284,-0.432,-0.154 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.289,-0.505,-0.136 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.302,-0.567,-0.096 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.167,-0.276,-0.066 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.14,-0.329,0.011 +DeepAR,TFT,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.103,-0.174,-0.042 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.088,-0.278,0.068 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.073,-0.276,0.077 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.007,-0.092,0.072 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.143,0.06,0.227 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.673,-0.927,-0.503 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.736,-0.422 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.771,-0.426 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.544,-0.741,-0.401 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.528,-0.695,-0.404 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.723,-0.357 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.444,-0.667,-0.295 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.498,-0.63,-0.387 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.505,-0.722,-0.356 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.52,-0.769,-0.343 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.361,-0.451,-0.287 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.304,-0.49,-0.169 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.517,-0.195 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.287,-0.411,-0.188 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.465,-0.121 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.252,-0.441,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.114 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.176,-0.297,-0.074 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.167,-0.293,-0.064 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.304,0.226,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.309,0.214,0.403 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.405,-1.983,-1.026 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.643,-0.944 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.253,-1.698,-0.943 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.219,-1.644,-0.913 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.196,-1.597,-0.904 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.163,-1.579,-0.858 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.074,-1.683,-0.724 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.956,-1.314,-0.7 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.874,-1.265,-0.578 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.824,-1.239,-0.519 -Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.799,-1.184,-0.509 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.706,-0.979,-0.481 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.437,-0.644,-0.292 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.007,-0.028,0.029 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.422,-1.991,-1.048 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-1.652,-0.959 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.269,-1.689,-0.969 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.235,-1.657,-0.934 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.212,-1.613,-0.926 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.179,-1.566,-0.889 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.09,-1.705,-0.731 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.971,-1.341,-0.7 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.888,-1.266,-0.602 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.837,-1.24,-0.533 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.812,-1.174,-0.538 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.719,-1.02,-0.482 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.448,-0.674,-0.272 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.007,-0.03,0.027 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv index fb1f27b5c0b885bea76843f8c54d726a8755d391..dbb54a7c1b6e2f66364b677cc90b54b1c4c0a02d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -3,224 +3,255 @@ Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.063,0.007,0.129 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.067,0.006,0.137 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.076,0.014,0.145 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.053,0.013,0.094 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.105,0.046,0.168 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.104,0.036,0.178 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.12,0.051,0.188 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.132,0.057,0.22 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.119,0.044,0.198 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.128,0.244 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.143,0.273 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.105,0.036,0.178 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.157,0.07,0.253 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.169,0.096,0.244 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.176,0.119,0.237 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.224,0.123,0.323 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.196,0.13,0.264 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.238,0.164,0.318 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.323,0.51 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.143,0.273 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.347,0.269,0.434 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.345,0.517 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.067,-0.148,-0.007 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.004,-0.014,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.011,-0.112,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.044,0.014,0.084 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.525,0.875,0.044,0.01,0.076 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.925,0.061,0.014,0.124 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.06,-0.063,0.159 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.129,0.084,0.171 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.107,0.202 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.044,0.011,0.075 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.1,-0.014,0.213 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.113,0.002,0.209 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.121,0.078,0.165 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.172,0.091,0.272 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.142,0.094,0.191 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.186,0.118,0.269 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.298,0.459 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.153,0.107,0.202 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.233,0.39 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.318,0.46 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.072,-0.159,-0.006 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.004,-0.023,0.014 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.009,-0.01,0.028 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,-0.015,-0.127,0.062 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.04,0.005,0.087 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.04,0.016,0.061 +TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.057,0.004,0.129 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.07,-0.003,0.166 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.056,-0.077,0.163 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.125,0.083,0.169 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.106,0.2 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.018,0.061 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.096,-0.024,0.215 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.109,-0.0,0.209 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.078,0.161 +TiRex,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.168,0.081,0.275 TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.138,0.094,0.184 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.183,0.115,0.269 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.294,0.463 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.149,0.106,0.2 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.223,0.394 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.316,0.461 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.082,-0.17,-0.014 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.009,-0.029,0.009 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.024,-0.134,0.054 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.349,0.65,0.031,0.001,0.07 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.031,0.002,0.058 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.048,0.001,0.113 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.007,0.152 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.047,-0.079,0.15 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.117,0.078,0.155 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.141,0.095,0.192 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.032,0.003,0.059 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.088,-0.028,0.205 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.101,-0.017,0.201 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.071,0.147 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.161,0.077,0.262 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.086,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.175,0.108,0.255 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.368,0.29,0.45 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.141,0.095,0.192 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.294,0.225,0.379 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.313,0.45 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.056,-0.103,-0.014 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.01,-0.065,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,0.014,-0.066,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.024,-0.057,0.118 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.054,-0.027,0.138 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.25,0.75,0.07,-0.019,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.083,-0.016,0.187 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.054,-0.03,0.148 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.109,0.015,0.208 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.122,0.045,0.204 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.13,0.054,0.209 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.18,0.059,0.295 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.151,0.072,0.233 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.162,0.081,0.236 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.311,0.219,0.402 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.117,-0.202,-0.048 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.046,-0.091,-0.014 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.042,-0.096,-0.005 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.35,0.651,-0.032,-0.075,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.057,-0.161,0.026 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.0,-0.059,0.043 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.017,-0.012,0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.031,-0.019,0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.016,-0.095,0.097 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.088,0.045,0.134 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.054,0.17 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.0,-0.059,0.043 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.08,0.188 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.072,-0.055,0.182 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.08,0.037,0.125 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.133,0.063,0.216 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.041,0.159 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.149,0.096,0.209 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.277,0.422 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.114,0.054,0.17 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.212,0.338 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.294,0.429 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.217,-0.037 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.125,0.475,-0.046,-0.082,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.042,-0.065,-0.017 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.032,-0.062,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.0,-0.045,0.056 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.054,0.141 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.016,-0.127,0.134 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.088,0.039,0.137 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.114,0.07,0.156 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.052,0.148 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.149,0.074,0.246 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.348,0.267,0.434 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.19,0.369 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.36,0.29,0.434 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.136,-0.231,-0.054 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.075,0.45,-0.065,-0.141,-0.014 +FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.06,-0.148,-0.004 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.127,-0.001 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.75,-0.076,-0.192,0.019 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.018,-0.056,0.012 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.014,-0.02,0.051 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.375,0.775,-0.017,-0.112,0.047 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.042,-0.115,0.179 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.85,0.055,-0.092,0.182 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.064,-0.007,0.126 +FlowState,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.118,0.065,0.176 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.086,-0.005,0.162 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.098,0.009,0.169 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.258,0.204,0.314 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.153,-0.283,-0.06 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.192,-0.012 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.075,-0.2,0.003 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.179,0.007 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.091,-0.23,0.016 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.032,-0.107,0.019 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.165,0.051 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.014,-0.054,0.02 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.015,-0.117,0.048 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.059,-0.045,0.137 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.085,-0.04,0.18 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.032,-0.164,0.051 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.5,0.299,0.7,0.028,-0.156,0.181 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.042,-0.125,0.178 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.051,-0.05,0.128 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.106,0.059,0.146 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.074,-0.047,0.162 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.122,0.079,0.166 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.258,0.4 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.085,-0.04,0.18 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.248,0.204,0.292 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.339,0.265,0.414 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.135,-0.246,-0.046 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.064,-0.189,0.059 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.059,-0.195,0.071 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.177,0.073 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.017,-0.107,0.087 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.017,-0.155,0.113 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.015,-0.051,0.104 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.073,-0.034,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.099,-0.022,0.213 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.087,-0.038,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.135,0.057,0.227 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.337,0.236,0.452 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.259,0.182,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.349,0.251,0.462 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.225,-0.323,-0.147 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.148,-0.206,-0.092 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.143,-0.203,-0.091 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.132,-0.183,-0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.097,-0.155,-0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.159,-0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.063,-0.159,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.079,-0.212,0.033 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.217,-0.037 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.047,-0.082,-0.011 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.042,-0.065,-0.018 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.033,-0.062,-0.004 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.058,-0.174,0.029 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.0,-0.045,0.055 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.4,0.225,0.625,0.017,-0.05,0.101 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.031,-0.054,0.141 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.058,-0.072,0.186 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.071,-0.048,0.186 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.08,0.032,0.126 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.133,0.035,0.247 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,0.052,0.148 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.113,0.069,0.156 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.19,0.368 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.186,-0.339,-0.075 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.111,-0.271,0.014 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.107,-0.274,0.023 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.096,-0.257,0.028 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.123,-0.262,-0.015 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.062,-0.231,0.074 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.044,-0.218,0.103 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.701,-0.029,-0.221,0.135 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.062,-0.228,0.067 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.014,-0.026,0.054 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.023,-0.132,0.142 +LightGBM,TFT,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.08,-0.097,0.241 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.047,-0.105,0.167 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.059,-0.095,0.175 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.226,0.064,0.363 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.203,-0.323,-0.106 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.127,-0.264,-0.002 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.122,-0.264,0.0 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.112,-0.251,0.016 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.139,-0.256,-0.047 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.077,-0.222,0.052 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.4,0.15,0.6,-0.059,-0.223,0.085 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.044,-0.216,0.111 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.077,-0.228,0.045 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.014,-0.057,0.025 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.124,0.127 +CatBoost,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.066,-0.095,0.227 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.033,-0.095,0.145 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.045,-0.084,0.162 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.215,0.067,0.351 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.311,-0.134 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.137,-0.197,-0.084 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.133,-0.191,-0.084 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.122,-0.172,-0.076 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.149,-0.263,-0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.087,-0.143,-0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.068,-0.144,0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.053,-0.147,0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.087,-0.145,-0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.024,-0.165,0.117 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.009,-0.145,0.11 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.028,-0.014,0.066 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.015,-0.018,0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.066,0.009,0.147 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.285,0.196,0.376 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.2,0.121,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.212,0.383 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.26,-0.375,-0.167 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.254,-0.12 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.25,-0.118 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.237,-0.105 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.205,-0.057 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.185,-0.075 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.093,-0.22,0.039 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.11,-0.27,0.021 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.028,-0.071,0.013 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.024 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.04,-0.042,0.142 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.264,0.165,0.37 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.178,0.083,0.287 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.278,0.186,0.37 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.058,-0.048,0.171 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.024,-0.001,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.036,0.0,0.071 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.208,0.133,0.297 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.289,-0.478,-0.14 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.207,-0.374,-0.1 +TFT,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.202,-0.38,-0.088 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.356,-0.083 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.22,-0.419,-0.062 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.154,-0.275,-0.067 +TFT,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.134,-0.214,-0.069 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.118,-0.171,-0.062 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.154,-0.327,-0.036 +TFT,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.087,-0.318,0.088 +TFT,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.071,-0.293,0.086 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.062,-0.206,0.046 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.036,-0.205,0.082 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.023,-0.194,0.094 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.159,0.098,0.222 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.244,-0.358,-0.15 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.235,-0.104 AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.161,-0.225,-0.103 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.15,-0.211,-0.094 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.178,-0.303,-0.078 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.189,-0.043 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.174,-0.055 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.095,-0.193,0.005 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.079,-0.193,0.045 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.096,-0.251,0.037 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.015,-0.045,0.018 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.025,0.05 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.114,-0.174,-0.055 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.049,-0.2,0.095 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.034,-0.169,0.087 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.025,-0.048,0.001 +AutoETS,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.035,-0.089,0.17 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.008,0.143 -AutoETS,Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.274,0.174,0.368 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.013,-0.025,0.05 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.188,0.099,0.292 -AutoETS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.287,0.195,0.372 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.312,-0.466,-0.197 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.229,-0.369,-0.134 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.224,-0.367,-0.13 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.213,-0.343,-0.121 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.175,-0.264,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.175,-0.326,-0.08 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.138,-0.199,-0.086 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.156,-0.293,-0.061 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.071,-0.173,-0.009 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.041,-0.165,0.04 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.167,0.008 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.234,0.157,0.314 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.144,0.096,0.191 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.248,0.171,0.331 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.712,-1.04,-0.477 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.604,-0.849,-0.424 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.862,-0.417 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.583,-0.819,-0.408 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.533,-0.729,-0.384 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.533,-0.766,-0.365 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.486,-0.666,-0.348 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.508,-0.823,-0.31 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.398,-0.602,-0.244 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.359,-0.588,-0.197 -Naive,AutoETS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.377,-0.582,-0.21 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.305,-0.458,-0.186 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.601,-0.118,-0.238,-0.028 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.018,-0.013,0.042 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.26,-0.375,-0.167 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.18,-0.254,-0.12 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.175,-0.25,-0.118 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.165,-0.237,-0.105 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.193,-0.309,-0.088 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.128,-0.205,-0.057 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.109,-0.204,-0.009 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.093,-0.22,0.039 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.184,-0.074 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.062,-0.212,0.087 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.047,-0.194,0.077 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.038,-0.076,-0.0 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.022,-0.104,0.162 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.013,-0.053,0.024 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.178,0.083,0.287 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.532,-0.768,-0.369 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.435,-0.641,-0.304 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.649,-0.287 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.416,-0.61,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.45,-0.673,-0.281 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.51,-0.269 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.584,-0.234 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.348,-0.457,-0.257 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.329,-0.412,-0.256 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.35,-0.512,-0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.251,-0.411,-0.138 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.216,-0.403,-0.091 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.583,-0.235 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.292,-0.57,-0.068 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.274,-0.542,-0.071 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.262,-0.422,-0.154 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.189,-0.285,-0.109 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.232,-0.412,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.168,-0.236,-0.106 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,0.105,0.027,0.192 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.216,-0.403,-0.091 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.122,0.03,0.215 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.069,-0.526 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.634,-0.85,-0.466 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.628,-0.854,-0.461 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.817,-0.455 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.751,-0.416 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.562,-0.767,-0.408 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.514,-0.706,-0.361 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.537,-0.859,-0.335 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.62,-0.27 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.385,-0.587,-0.229 -Drift,AutoETS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.402,-0.593,-0.242 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.33,-0.495,-0.206 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.019,-0.044,0.013 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.139,-0.274,-0.031 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv index dcc49842ff98749f33fa351c0decc30cc33329bd..4438d97aa92b0a5b8927a90c6c16c239b9c9d5f5 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_daily/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,0.006,0.143 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.069,0.01,0.138 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.07,0.006,0.143 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.081,0.017,0.152 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.105,0.042,0.17 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.107,0.033,0.185 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.128,0.05,0.205 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.072,0.028,0.12 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,0.057,0.197 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.107,0.035,0.186 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.197,0.129,0.273 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.195,0.329 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.176,0.317 +Chronos-2,TFT,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.162,0.392 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.179,0.328 Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.296,0.221,0.369 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.252,0.418 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.322,0.248,0.402 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.229,0.408 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.448,0.371,0.518 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.542,0.686 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.621,0.548,0.689 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.167,-0.006 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.005,0.029 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.075 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.039,0.014,0.062 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.062,-0.073,0.164 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.071,0.22 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.203,0.144,0.264 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.139,0.261 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.178,0.307 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.209,0.369 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.332,0.479 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.514,0.651 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.522,0.653 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.074,-0.161,-0.01 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.001,-0.019,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.475,0.85,0.013,-0.004,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.039,0.014,0.065 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.575,0.9,0.041,0.002,0.076 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.063,-0.06,0.158 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.003,-0.107,0.086 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.064,0.022,0.119 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.041,0.003,0.076 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.137,0.084,0.213 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.204,0.146,0.262 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.191,0.133,0.25 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.233,0.129,0.333 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.2,0.139,0.261 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.177,0.311 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.21,0.366 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.272,0.177,0.368 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.275,0.196,0.342 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.407,0.34,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.589,0.518,0.65 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.593,0.524,0.653 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.167,-0.006 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.001,-0.021,0.019 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.012,-0.005,0.029 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.037,0.007,0.075 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.119,0.089 +TiRex,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.063,0.012,0.127 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.04,0.015,0.062 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.136,0.071,0.22 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.189,0.132,0.252 +TiRex,TFT,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.232,0.128,0.338 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.199,0.139,0.261 +TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.178,0.307 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.271,0.168,0.369 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.274,0.193,0.348 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.406,0.332,0.479 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.179,-0.017 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.03,0.005 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.525,-0.013,-0.031,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.012,-0.03,0.005 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.701,0.026,-0.0,0.057 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.028,-0.004,0.056 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.051,-0.082,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.01,-0.126,0.08 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.052,0.007,0.112 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.029,-0.003,0.056 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.126,0.064,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.194,0.134,0.255 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.122,0.243 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.223,0.112,0.329 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.19,0.13,0.256 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.234,0.168,0.303 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.28,0.198,0.357 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.262,0.164,0.36 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.179,0.341 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.326,0.47 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.583,0.509,0.646 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.588,0.518,0.647 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.117,-0.205,-0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.081,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.04,-0.07,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.039,-0.081,-0.007 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.299,0.625,-0.027,-0.061,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.002,-0.054,0.044 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.026,-0.095,0.112 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.037,-0.149,0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.027,-0.006,0.066 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.825,0.003,-0.052,0.045 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.103,0.052,0.168 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.173,0.115,0.231 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.158,0.101,0.215 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.202,0.105,0.29 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.168,0.107,0.232 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.213,0.142,0.283 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.261,0.19,0.328 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.243,0.13,0.351 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.173,0.308 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.321,0.445 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.502,0.634 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.577,0.512,0.637 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.12,-0.228,-0.035 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.041,-0.067,-0.014 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.425,-0.042,-0.083,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.029,-0.059,0.004 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.002,-0.046,0.051 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.024,-0.13,0.138 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,0.02,0.206 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.171,0.103,0.244 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.166,0.1,0.238 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.139,0.288 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.259,0.169,0.351 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.296,0.466 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.571,0.493,0.638 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.499,0.637 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.147,-0.257,-0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.066,-0.197,0.068 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.068,-0.188,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.054,-0.18,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.027,-0.127,0.087 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.024,-0.16,0.115 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.077,-0.137,-0.029 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.003,-0.094,0.097 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.001,-0.098,0.107 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.01,-0.087,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.036,-0.059,0.129 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.079,0.008,0.166 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.151,0.042,0.258 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.146,0.021,0.264 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.192,0.062,0.31 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.242,0.133,0.346 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.367,0.276,0.452 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.46,0.657 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.468,0.662 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.061,-0.037,0.157 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.039,-0.064,0.147 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.135,0.042,0.233 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.188,0.093,0.275 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.231,0.082,0.362 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.198,0.097,0.284 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.241,0.14,0.327 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.27,0.178,0.358 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.273,0.153,0.374 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.405,0.315,0.487 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.246,-0.061 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.069,-0.135,-0.023 +FlowState,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.067,-0.146,-0.013 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.055,-0.127,-0.007 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.027,-0.071,0.006 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.065,-0.186,0.036 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.325,0.75,-0.024,-0.123,0.041 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.699,1.0,0.078,0.044,0.114 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.135,0.058,0.205 +FlowState,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.18,0.093,0.258 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.145,0.057,0.223 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.192,0.093,0.274 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.222,0.091,0.338 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.226,0.154,0.286 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.31,0.422 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.12,-0.228,-0.036 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.043,-0.083,-0.003 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.042,-0.067,-0.015 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.03,-0.06,0.003 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.175,0.55,-0.003,-0.047,0.05 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.04,-0.172,0.06 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.45,0.25,0.675,0.024,-0.043,0.11 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.1,0.02,0.205 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.156,0.086,0.225 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.2,0.076,0.32 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.166,0.1,0.237 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.211,0.139,0.288 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.241,0.13,0.341 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.244,0.152,0.329 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.296,0.466 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.245,-0.375,-0.148 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.281,-0.077 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.159,-0.27,-0.092 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.158,-0.281,-0.077 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.144,-0.262,-0.068 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.115,-0.202,-0.054 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.112,-0.26,-0.02 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.199,-0.009 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.156,-0.303,-0.044 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.301,-0.085,-0.128,-0.047 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.111,-0.258,-0.02 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.078,-0.041,0.168 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.062,-0.054,0.155 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.111,0.028,0.192 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.073,-0.055,0.172 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.123,-0.008,0.224 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.176,0.105,0.25 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.156,-0.003,0.29 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.16,0.08,0.233 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.257,0.367 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.445,0.597 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.449,0.602 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.49,-0.242 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.255,-0.359,-0.168 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.257,-0.356,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.241,-0.342,-0.154 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.208,-0.3,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.206,-0.322,-0.114 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.177,-0.347,-0.044 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.084,-0.201,0.04 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.464,-0.213 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.236,-0.333,-0.154 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.234,-0.337,-0.152 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.22,-0.32,-0.14 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.188,-0.275,-0.112 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.232,-0.38,-0.103 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.156,-0.257,-0.062 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.291,-0.095 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.066,-0.183,0.051 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.005,-0.059,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.049,-0.009,0.106 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.107,0.03,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.255,0.176,0.338 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.483,0.391,0.567 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.488,0.399,0.572 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.052,-0.074,0.178 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.012,-0.024,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.065,0.027,0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.1,-0.042,0.233 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.105,0.02,0.187 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.267,0.194,0.345 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.644,-0.193 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.304,-0.499,-0.148 +TFT,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.302,-0.51,-0.147 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.287,-0.49,-0.126 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.253,-0.408,-0.117 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.3,-0.568,-0.09 +TFT,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.22,-0.349,-0.102 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.25,-0.47,-0.083 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.124,-0.237,-0.029 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.055,-0.217,0.069 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.043,-0.22,0.085 +TFT,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.014,-0.167,0.155 +TFT,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.183,0.231 +TFT,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.055,-0.024,0.132 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.227,0.159,0.301 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.488,-0.218 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.354,-0.162 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.25,-0.353,-0.162 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.248,-0.354,-0.162 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.234,-0.345,-0.149 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.202,-0.302,-0.12 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.199,-0.312,-0.111 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.171,-0.359,-0.021 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.247,-0.396,-0.107 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.17,-0.287,-0.06 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.199,-0.311,-0.111 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.078,-0.208,0.052 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.005,-0.04,0.055 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.012,-0.048,0.023 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.041,-0.093,0.181 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.054,0.005,0.11 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.112,0.026,0.209 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.09,-0.055,0.227 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.094,0.012,0.177 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.259,0.166,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.486,0.386,0.577 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.491,0.395,0.58 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.42,-0.584,-0.283 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.443,-0.216 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.322,-0.451,-0.215 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.443,-0.216 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.305,-0.435,-0.202 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.271,-0.395,-0.165 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.268,-0.405,-0.162 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.238,-0.449,-0.066 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.318,-0.485,-0.163 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.237,-0.377,-0.102 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.268,-0.405,-0.161 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.14,-0.289,0.008 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.052,-0.118,0.009 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.07,-0.129,-0.028 +AutoETS,TFT,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.014,-0.183,0.143 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.057,-0.124,-0.005 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,-0.025,0.161 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.037,-0.125,0.184 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.086,0.158 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.216,0.121,0.317 -AutoETS,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.456,0.355,0.549 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.462,0.365,0.555 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.719,-0.337 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.406,-0.585,-0.264 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.577,-0.266 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.389,-0.555,-0.247 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.353,-0.488,-0.235 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.35,-0.542,-0.204 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.318,-0.529,-0.154 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.214,-0.333,-0.118 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.12,-0.241,-0.031 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.126,-0.264,-0.027 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.065,-0.193,0.024 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.165,0.111,0.215 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.421,0.332,0.503 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.427,0.334,0.515 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.475,-0.672,-0.329 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.374,-0.582,-0.215 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.372,-0.585,-0.202 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.356,-0.564,-0.197 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.321,-0.542,-0.15 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.37,-0.557,-0.217 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.285,-0.512,-0.1 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.317,-0.518,-0.149 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.185,-0.408,0.003 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.112,-0.303,0.041 +LightGBM,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.054,-0.301,0.155 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.099,-0.294,0.052 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.039,-0.226,0.111 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.005,-0.204,0.176 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.185,0.014,0.337 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.689,-0.298 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.38,-0.521,-0.244 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.378,-0.534,-0.239 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.362,-0.518,-0.219 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.445,-0.209 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.376,-0.597,-0.181 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.291,-0.4,-0.182 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.323,-0.491,-0.18 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.19,-0.304,-0.087 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.117,-0.23,-0.02 +PatchTST,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.059,-0.152,0.024 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.104,-0.216,-0.012 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.044,-0.188,0.079 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.005,-0.214,0.169 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.182,0.104,0.261 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.811,-1.075,-0.59 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.918,-0.498 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.686,-0.901,-0.515 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.684,-0.918,-0.498 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.888,-0.484 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.621,-0.801,-0.472 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.872,-0.42 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.579,-0.824,-0.381 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.681,-0.951,-0.46 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.578,-0.73,-0.448 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.871,-0.42 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.454,-0.579,-0.346 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.341,-0.512,-0.213 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.365,-0.526,-0.24 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.293,-0.431,-0.189 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.349,-0.539,-0.2 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.275,-0.464,-0.138 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.198,-0.273,-0.125 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.228,-0.508,-0.014 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.222,-0.353,-0.116 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.306,0.221,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.314,0.217,0.405 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.61,-2.18,-1.183 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.427,-1.861,-1.056 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.431,-1.857,-1.076 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.399,-1.824,-1.038 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.337,-1.735,-1.009 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.332,-1.759,-0.974 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.276,-1.915,-0.852 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.097,-1.48,-0.802 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.934,-1.31,-0.642 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.944,-1.364,-0.629 -Naive,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.838,-1.216,-0.551 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.727,-1.011,-0.497 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.441,-0.644,-0.284 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.011,-0.019,0.03 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.638,-2.219,-1.211 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.453,-1.88,-1.093 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.457,-1.885,-1.102 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.425,-1.836,-1.076 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.362,-1.756,-1.048 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.357,-1.757,-0.995 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.962,-0.88 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.512,-0.815 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.955,-1.336,-0.664 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.965,-1.381,-0.653 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.858,-1.247,-0.575 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.745,-1.06,-0.502 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.457,-0.679,-0.276 -Drift,Naive,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.011,-0.031,0.019 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 5dcf72c974f33efc315fd97ee3b673ac24f01f21..cb8079063ee73f920f6f9e13084140ec8281240f 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,93.18181818181819,43.27459392940457,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,77.5974025974026,32.8898005652727,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.78571428571429,33.495947984841536,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,72.4025974025974,37.03738049424087,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,71.91558441558443,32.91567356681183,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,67.04545454545455,30.36785516060497,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.72077922077922,31.366273254344446,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Sundial-Base,65.58441558441558,33.222788259935065,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,38.63636363636364,9.898493888478555,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoARIMA,33.11688311688313,5.982141659287521,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoTheta,29.220779220779225,3.9989847727641026,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,24.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.935064935064934,-42.822027329975775,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,9.74025974025974,-40.06899253716452,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Drift,8.116883116883116,-48.09174159738534,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.13636363636364,43.274593608690935,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.9090909090909,32.88980053857977,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.22727272727275,33.495947925536605,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.68181818181817,36.74297271088556,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,69.0909090909091,32.908248043370314,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,68.18181818181816,31.79411028713204,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.36363636363635,31.36627321795874,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.0,30.367855148176616,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,63.40909090909091,33.222787882390605,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +TFT,59.43181818181819,31.384747879961495,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,55.11363636363635,29.506456740093434,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,53.86363636363636,29.21300351912992,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,52.49999999999999,26.76214381001828,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +LightGBM,48.40909090909091,25.932640406312956,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,33.409090909090914,10.456399439111886,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,29.545454545454547,6.160851350393271,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.318181818181824,3.998984722231047,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,21.590909090909097,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.272727272727272,-42.82202736849552,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,7.5,-40.06899272444669,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.045454545454547,-48.09174161780307,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 21ed1e463412b5a6156ad8dba01cd5cdde265b1e..7d22520ba6f1e0a0e6b9dbfe404ec4398f4b1007 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.48051948051949,54.953226018906975,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,83.11688311688312,46.668743688275406,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.75974025974025,46.31983640086111,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,74.67532467532466,49.0537508694169,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,73.53896103896103,45.92776459924427,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.34415584415586,43.86628917011185,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,67.69480519480518,44.43807109311596,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.11688311688312,42.15221432677937,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,40.909090909090914,15.192949434763204,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Stat. Ensemble,36.36363636363637,11.071814783556256,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Seasonal Naive,23.701298701298704,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,18.831168831168828,-18.399683257143185,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,16.233766233766236,-115.54487614262277,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.337662337662337,-88.45845966507049,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -Drift,3.896103896103896,-93.63270989430306,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,93.18181818181816,54.953225710108875,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,81.36363636363635,46.668743596982175,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,77.27272727272728,46.31983629666182,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.09090909090908,48.743593703307816,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.2727272727273,45.95860067004889,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +FlowState,70.45454545454545,44.453296546133025,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.72727272727272,44.43807099079537,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,67.04545454545455,43.86628908183108,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +TFT,64.0909090909091,43.30535103216901,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,58.4090909090909,40.39134574673249,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,58.06818181818182,39.97944767271597,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +Sundial-Base,57.72727272727273,42.152213930229635,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,42.95454545454547,30.253084957838638,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,39.77272727272727,27.020920595575927,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,36.13636363636363,16.197587961183302,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,30.681818181818176,10.597669802300436,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.56818181818182,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,14.772727272727273,-18.399683360301424,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,11.59090909090909,-115.54487654562027,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,8.863636363636363,-88.45846014959294,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.954545454545454,-93.63271001234882,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 7904adb7d1c630d2a8d43415530a0877b7847612..bc2a4430983de1bb02c30335782b9d6c344b2d8f 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.20779220779221,48.442211622642596,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,74.35064935064936,43.04207391797321,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,74.02597402597402,38.16990011187224,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.53896103896103,38.84505904491324,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.66883116883118,36.99654962186136,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.34415584415584,37.34153521192375,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,68.34415584415584,37.127692710312544,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Sundial-Base,61.68831168831168,37.11101321471857,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,39.285714285714285,13.827496123030514,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoARIMA,27.92207792207792,3.7229772082420842,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -AutoTheta,27.597402597402592,8.112534719932462,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,22.727272727272723,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -Naive,21.1038961038961,-23.683182625995535,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,17.207792207792206,-40.71283512465331,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.987012987012985,-28.29415186104791,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.22727272727273,48.442211767640465,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.72727272727272,38.84505918959146,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,72.27272727272728,42.611870287147646,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,71.36363636363636,38.169900254169384,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.04545454545455,36.99654984675513,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +FlowState,66.5909090909091,37.56998412861054,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.13636363636364,37.12643024774067,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,65.68181818181819,37.34153531671359,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +TFT,60.5681818181818,34.60383117292584,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,59.54545454545453,37.11101339158358,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,55.9090909090909,33.348414178690675,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +PatchTST,55.79545454545454,35.56569107234838,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,53.18181818181819,33.472768156935786,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,50.0,30.689071842972925,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,34.77272727272728,14.36807817022936,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,25.000000000000007,3.8862087407703916,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.409090909090907,8.112535247477037,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.09090909090909,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.590909090909086,-23.683182452741146,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,13.40909090909091,-40.71283486742574,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.681818181818182,-28.294151790850574,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index ab09594c5da42cce2fd0615854b89e0a20df830d..f7cc72e73d8f7c58934df9b24054d77e060a92f8 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.48051948051949,59.682309139891906,0.0,1.8613627837499997,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.14285714285714,51.65057902169086,0.0,1.6098432725,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.11038961038962,51.631051239780376,0.0,36.094269344715904,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,76.2987012987013,54.56690402717588,0.0,209.256031124375,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.94155844155841,50.29303698824681,0.0,66.21775966082386,0.13636363636363635,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.99350649350649,50.06921700286738,0.0,1.188736898153409,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.01948051948051,49.586247339686665,0.0,2.7443964685511366,0.4090909090909091,0.0 -Sundial-Base,57.46753246753248,46.24435266062466,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,38.63636363636363,16.242226994766373,0.0,2309.733690728125,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Stat. Ensemble,38.311688311688314,13.067151299916691,0.0,2423.04841224875,0.0,4.545454545454546 -Seasonal Naive,23.701298701298704,0.0,0.0,0.48711988500000003,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,19.155844155844157,-14.943560751678797,0.0,5.755807038238637,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,15.909090909090912,-129.66660309670814,0.0,13.10401027465909,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.311688311688313,-74.36309674872763,0.0,0.4947083875,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.51948051948052,-79.2278868482116,0.0,0.47339400249999997,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.95454545454544,59.682309132284814,0.0,1.8287922303125,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,78.86363636363637,51.65057901868925,0.0,1.5771957561079546,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.36363636363637,51.63105123083261,0.0,35.73234459616477,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.09090909090908,53.906369718314394,0.0,303.87484716423296,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,70.68181818181817,50.15888836772644,0.0,3.043251233854167,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Toto-1.0,70.0,50.324808783788264,0.0,66.451582385625,0.13636363636363635,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,68.18181818181819,50.06921700093749,0.0,1.18742705375,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.27272727272727,49.586247329778175,0.0,2.693870382954546,0.4090909090909091,0.0 +TFT,65.9090909090909,46.76309293458979,7018.033380476477,5.207965206041667,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,60.56818181818182,46.321243230452545,10059.792668950715,9.620176696875001,0.0,4.545454545454546 +PatchTST,59.77272727272725,46.391259833433686,5248.721533981875,6.349855852499999,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,56.136363636363654,46.24435265048212,0.0,8.613333634910715,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,42.95454545454545,32.950990580941486,22.5747511634375,4.555509813977272,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,42.045454545454554,35.643842752802136,211.43542631645835,6.230126684431818,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.5,17.221454748984954,0.0,1885.5145473599553,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,30.909090909090907,12.55153817097112,0.0,2145.1257867486606,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.795454545454543,0.0,0.0,0.5409932320192308,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,15.0,-14.943560774920094,0.0,5.730209390000001,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,11.363636363636362,-129.66660306044423,0.0,13.387819541051137,0.0,0.0 +Naive,9.545454545454545,-74.36309704922827,0.0,0.48306351999999997,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.090909090909091,-79.22788676890997,0.0,0.5387751224999999,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index 1b95f2b400adced536b4d705e6c0e0d82f72b6fa..414596b84c4a8fde83f3b2bfd30eea0fbaf6e854 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.155,0.074,0.232 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.147,0.067,0.222 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.099,0.05,0.148 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.154,0.078,0.231 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.258 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.103,0.054,0.151 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.155,0.078,0.231 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.168,0.094,0.235 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.242 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.185,0.109,0.258 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.151,0.089,0.223 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.293,0.446 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.316,0.477 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.34,0.473 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.173,0.073,0.275 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.195,0.111,0.285 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.199,0.139,0.264 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.225,0.135,0.326 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.234,0.162,0.313 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.288,0.445 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.348,0.515 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.603,0.516,0.671 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.509,0.672 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.617,0.53,0.683 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.183,-0.301,-0.08 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.009,-0.042,0.022 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.317,0.727,-0.066,-0.195,0.026 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.0,-0.055,0.035 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.036,-0.009,0.097 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.061,-0.19,0.033 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.682,0.455,0.864,-0.0,-0.055,0.036 +TiRex,FlowState,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.016,-0.016,0.047 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.022,-0.002,0.045 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.036,-0.009,0.097 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,-0.005,-0.116,0.079 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.255,0.193,0.323 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.286,0.22,0.357 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.243,0.359 +TiRex,TFT,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.022,-0.126,0.148 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.048,-0.083,0.154 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.052,-0.032,0.124 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.084,-0.041,0.197 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.094,0.014,0.177 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.188,0.319 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.253,0.409 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.444,0.599 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.434,0.607 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.463,0.615 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.172,-0.285,-0.072 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.009,-0.023,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.056,-0.184,0.038 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.009,-0.035,0.043 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.045,-0.004,0.102 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.051,-0.179,0.041 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.009,-0.036,0.044 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.025,-0.003,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.705,0.523,0.864,0.031,-0.006,0.066 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.045,-0.004,0.102 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.004,-0.108,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.262,0.183,0.343 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.293,0.213,0.37 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.307,0.236,0.376 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.031,-0.134,0.158 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.057,-0.086,0.163 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.061,-0.026,0.135 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.092,-0.048,0.216 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.102,0.02,0.192 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.257,0.182,0.339 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.248,0.422 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.534,0.442,0.606 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.525,0.435,0.616 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.462,0.621 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.11,-0.174,-0.053 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.683,0.062,-0.027,0.163 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.053,-0.039,0.156 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.115,-0.178,-0.058 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.057,-0.034,0.159 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.049,-0.043,0.152 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.061,-0.036,0.17 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.096,0.005,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.083,0.004,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.057,-0.042,0.158 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.301,0.219,0.379 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.33,0.242,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.344,0.271,0.413 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.286,0.455 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.559,0.454,0.636 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.463,0.634 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.575,0.474,0.648 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.183,-0.301,-0.084 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.0,-0.037,0.052 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.009,-0.045,0.034 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.065,-0.205,0.035 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.057,-0.042,0.166 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.073,-0.011,0.167 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.078,0.001,0.163 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.092,0.001,0.187 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.053,-0.046,0.153 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.078,-0.036,0.18 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.103,0.024,0.18 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.106,0.036,0.179 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.136,0.059,0.226 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.146,0.075,0.226 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.294,0.21,0.374 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.367,0.283,0.452 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.183,-0.3,-0.085 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.545,0.0,-0.037,0.052 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.009,-0.046,0.035 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.061,-0.199,0.04 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.037,-0.015,0.099 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.023,-0.02,0.084 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.016,-0.018,0.056 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.022,-0.02,0.084 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.036,-0.015,0.099 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.818,-0.005,-0.119,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.255,0.173,0.347 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.286,0.206,0.382 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.231,0.382 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.022,-0.136,0.15 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.048,-0.105,0.169 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.052,-0.044,0.145 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.084,-0.065,0.228 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.094,-0.002,0.211 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.251,0.17,0.345 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.329,0.236,0.432 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.438,0.604 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.429,0.618 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.457,0.619 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.347,-0.122 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.038,-0.107,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.047,-0.114,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.106,-0.235,-0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.038,-0.11,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.015,-0.081,0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.545,0.364,0.773,-0.043,-0.163,0.058 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.227,0.141,0.313 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.259,0.171,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.275,0.196,0.348 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.817,1.0,0.304,0.206,0.4 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.43,0.581 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.503,0.396,0.601 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.53,0.448,0.597 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.202,-0.308,-0.104 +FlowState,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.016,-0.049,0.015 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.026,-0.054,0.003 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.078,-0.2,0.011 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.017,-0.059,0.018 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.006,-0.028,0.044 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.02,-0.035,0.089 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.021,-0.132,0.064 +FlowState,TFT,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.006,-0.145,0.129 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.032,-0.097,0.138 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.036,-0.047,0.109 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.069,-0.063,0.2 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.079,-0.004,0.169 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.238,0.163,0.321 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.318,0.228,0.405 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.21,-0.319,-0.113 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.023,-0.047,0.002 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.295,0.136,0.477,-0.032,-0.071,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.09,-0.203,-0.004 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.085,-0.195,-0.001 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.023,-0.091,0.02 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.014,-0.033,0.075 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.006,-0.046,0.027 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.014,-0.033,0.075 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.028,-0.134,0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.238,0.176,0.304 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.27,0.203,0.337 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.285,0.227,0.342 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.0,-0.159,0.134 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.026,-0.105,0.134 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.03,-0.048,0.098 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.063,-0.059,0.171 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.073,0.003,0.148 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.234,0.172,0.299 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.314,0.236,0.392 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.431,0.592 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.424,0.595 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.537,0.451,0.605 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.228,-0.347,-0.122 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.038,-0.107,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.047,-0.114,0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.101,-0.23,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.038,-0.109,0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.021,-0.097,0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.015,-0.081,0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.545,0.364,0.773,-0.043,-0.163,0.058 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.015,-0.171,0.12 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.012,-0.132,0.138 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.016,-0.088,0.112 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.049,-0.088,0.178 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.06,-0.038,0.163 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.222,0.136,0.311 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.817,1.0,0.304,0.206,0.4 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.177,-0.288,-0.097 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,0.005,-0.086,0.104 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.004,-0.104,0.098 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.061,-0.188,0.041 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.005,-0.105,0.107 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.227,0.636,0.041,-0.062,0.14 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.056,-0.18,0.044 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.182,0.636,0.005,-0.104,0.107 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.021,-0.068,0.116 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.027,-0.058,0.119 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.227,0.636,0.041,-0.062,0.14 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.259,0.173,0.345 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.29,0.204,0.373 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.304,0.232,0.377 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.027,-0.13,0.176 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.053,-0.08,0.188 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.057,-0.001,0.115 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.088,-0.031,0.213 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.098,0.018,0.187 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.254,0.166,0.342 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.332,0.242,0.422 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.426,0.619 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.523,0.435,0.617 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.549,0.444,0.634 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.804,-0.414 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.478,-0.238 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.355,-0.523,-0.224 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.431,-0.609,-0.281 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.343,-0.532,-0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.294,-0.456,-0.165 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.313,-0.436,-0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.349,-0.527,-0.21 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.21,-0.38,-0.078 +TFT,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.022,-0.174,0.112 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.032,-0.187,0.118 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.085,-0.22,0.035 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.023,-0.176,0.12 +TFT,FlowState,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.006,-0.148,0.127 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.0,-0.155,0.137 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.015,-0.137,0.146 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.028,-0.214,0.115 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.568,0.341,0.773,0.027,-0.059,0.102 +TFT,CatBoost,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.031,-0.11,0.158 +TFT,DeepAR,0.659,0.455,0.841,0.063,-0.045,0.195 +TFT,LightGBM,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.074,-0.067,0.215 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.234,0.107,0.353 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.841,0.682,0.977,0.314,0.187,0.436 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.243,-0.399,-0.125 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.05,-0.182,0.076 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.06,-0.195,0.079 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.114,-0.22,-0.025 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.051,-0.203,0.095 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.034,-0.16,0.088 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.027,-0.155,0.095 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.012,-0.16,0.117 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.056,-0.231,0.074 +PatchTST,TFT,0.432,0.227,0.659,-0.027,-0.113,0.056 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.5,0.318,0.727,0.004,-0.138,0.119 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.568,0.364,0.773,0.037,-0.064,0.149 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.048,-0.085,0.171 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.213,0.1,0.318 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.614,0.955,0.295,0.181,0.407 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.248,-0.358,-0.161 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.055,-0.142,0.031 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.064,-0.156,0.026 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.119,-0.219,-0.037 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.055,-0.17,0.042 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.038,-0.122,0.045 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.031,-0.109,0.046 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.017,-0.126,0.081 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.06,-0.13,0.001 +CatBoost,TFT,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.032,-0.188,0.099 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.5,0.273,0.682,-0.004,-0.135,0.122 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.033,-0.061,0.131 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.044,0.009,0.089 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.209,0.123,0.284 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.292,0.207,0.369 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.291,-0.484,-0.156 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.091,-0.246,0.04 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.101,-0.276,0.046 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.158,-0.291,-0.062 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.092,-0.296,0.061 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.074,-0.249,0.059 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.067,-0.206,0.056 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.052,-0.217,0.081 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.097,-0.27,0.03 +DeepAR,TFT,0.341,0.159,0.545,-0.067,-0.242,0.043 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.432,0.227,0.636,-0.039,-0.176,0.06 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.035,-0.15,0.057 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.011,-0.075,0.09 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.182,0.095,0.265 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.886,1.0,0.268,0.191,0.34 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.306,-0.456,-0.194 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.104,-0.215,-0.014 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.114,-0.237,-0.02 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.171,-0.292,-0.081 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.104,-0.267,0.002 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.086,-0.204,0.004 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.079,-0.173,-0.003 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.064,-0.195,0.037 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.109,-0.23,-0.018 +LightGBM,TFT,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.079,-0.274,0.063 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.051,-0.206,0.078 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.046,-0.098,-0.009 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.011,-0.099,0.07 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.173,0.091,0.247 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.259,0.183,0.326 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.579,-0.803,-0.405 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.469,-0.232 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.346,-0.513,-0.222 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.416,-0.599,-0.266 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.335,-0.527,-0.205 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.313,-0.472,-0.195 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.305,-0.426,-0.207 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.286,-0.451,-0.158 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.341,-0.519,-0.2 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.305,-0.546,-0.119 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.27,-0.467,-0.111 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.265,-0.396,-0.14 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.223,-0.36,-0.105 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.209,-0.327,-0.1 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.042,0.005,0.08 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.061,0.021,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.591,0.909,0.099,0.047,0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.369,0.266,0.458 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.247,0.481 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.392,0.29,0.477 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.913,-0.462 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.401,-0.556,-0.282 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.414,-0.588,-0.271 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.493,-0.717,-0.319 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.401,-0.618,-0.26 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.35,-0.519,-0.207 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.37,-0.508,-0.254 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.408,-0.596,-0.256 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.043,-0.088,-0.005 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.021,-0.031,0.069 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.705,0.5,0.864,0.06,0.013,0.109 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.342,0.226,0.439 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.329,0.203,0.458 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.365,0.252,0.46 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.692,-0.897,-0.515 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.56,-0.32 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.444,-0.603,-0.308 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.525,-0.703,-0.371 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.431,-0.617,-0.3 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.379,-0.534,-0.243 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.399,-0.519,-0.293 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.438,-0.605,-0.302 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.065,-0.112,-0.022 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.021,-0.075,0.03 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.04,-0.036,0.112 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.328,0.221,0.419 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.315,0.196,0.441 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.352,0.248,0.441 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.105,0.053,0.16 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.763,-1.06,-0.534 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.691,-0.338 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.73,-0.33 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-0.835,-0.401 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.491,-0.761,-0.31 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.183,-0.436,-0.667,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.581,-0.825,-0.395 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.49,-0.762,-0.309 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.466,-0.681,-0.295 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.457,-0.645,-0.309 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.183,-0.436,-0.667,-0.26 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.498,-0.73,-0.32 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.409,-0.11,-0.184,-0.05 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.295,0.136,0.5,-0.064,-0.122,-0.013 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.042,-0.126,0.035 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.159,0.023,0.318,-0.457,-0.772,-0.23 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.205,0.045,0.386,-0.419,-0.686,-0.221 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.413,-0.585,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.045,0.0,0.114,-0.365,-0.514,-0.236 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.35,-0.484,-0.224 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.117,-0.19,-0.056 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.3,0.152,0.419 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.286,0.145,0.428 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.325,0.178,0.442 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.518,-2.04,-1.064 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.128,-1.496,-0.798 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.148,-1.535,-0.793 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.268,-1.745,-0.83 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.129,-1.528,-0.778 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.051,-1.384,-0.754 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.081,-1.448,-0.758 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.139,-1.625,-0.741 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.585,-0.844,-0.362 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.519,-0.781,-0.293 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.488,-0.722,-0.283 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.428,-0.722,-0.18 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.364,0.727,-0.02,-0.276,0.204 -Naive,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.036,0.019,0.055 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.469,-2.047,-1.037 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.087,-1.548,-0.767 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.106,-1.604,-0.771 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.225,-1.732,-0.861 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.088,-1.617,-0.75 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.012,-1.506,-0.657 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.041,-1.467,-0.735 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.098,-1.611,-0.77 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.926,-0.328 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.49,-0.845,-0.255 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.459,-0.79,-0.244 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.401,-0.748,-0.169 -AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.273,0.636,0.019,-0.257,0.216 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.054,-0.22,0.246 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.611,-2.152,-1.128 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.207,-1.595,-0.861 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.227,-1.637,-0.858 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.352,-1.839,-0.901 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.208,-1.624,-0.841 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.127,-1.479,-0.81 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.158,-1.532,-0.822 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.218,-1.736,-0.799 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.644,-0.912,-0.408 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.575,-0.851,-0.337 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.543,-0.788,-0.33 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.481,-0.792,-0.216 -Drift,Naive,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.037,-0.058,-0.02 -Drift,AutoETS,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.057,-0.326,0.181 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 9e7619a74e79be44efcf2559bee57b79c0a236a8..4ba74274d38ce08c10a372c60c1650c44c561d63 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.155,0.076,0.23 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.161,0.079,0.235 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.681,0.955,0.116,0.064,0.166 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.167,0.09,0.247 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.125,0.266 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.818,0.681,0.955,0.121,0.068,0.173 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.09,0.246 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.189,0.111,0.257 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.118,0.257 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.198,0.125,0.266 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.205,0.095,0.309 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.244,0.147,0.347 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.249,0.162,0.344 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.221,0.162,0.292 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.401,0.535 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.493,0.431,0.55 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.354,0.305,0.406 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.383,0.324,0.446 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.391,0.528 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.483,0.612 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.62,0.56,0.676 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.778,0.638,0.877 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.761,0.708,0.807 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.713,0.813 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.184,-0.299,-0.082 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.006,-0.026,0.038 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.047,-0.184,0.054 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.014,-0.036,0.044 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.05,0.008,0.102 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.727,-0.04,-0.177,0.062 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.013,-0.037,0.043 +TiRex,FlowState,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.04,0.006,0.073 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.04,0.019,0.062 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.05,0.008,0.102 +TiRex,TFT,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.059,-0.094,0.188 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.105,-0.039,0.225 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.111,-0.012,0.216 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.078,-0.015,0.15 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.371,0.298,0.444 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.331,0.468 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.235,0.168,0.294 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.269,0.207,0.333 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.291,0.436 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.467,0.393,0.537 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.47,0.622 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.579,0.857 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.643,0.777 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.651,0.782 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.192,-0.308,-0.086 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.007,-0.039,0.025 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.054,-0.192,0.05 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.007,-0.035,0.039 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.044,-0.001,0.096 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.047,-0.184,0.055 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.007,-0.035,0.038 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.659,0.455,0.818,0.034,0.002,0.064 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.034,-0.006,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.044,-0.001,0.096 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.053,-0.116,0.188 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.099,-0.059,0.224 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.106,-0.034,0.226 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.072,-0.029,0.158 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.367,0.284,0.448 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.396,0.316,0.471 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.23,0.157,0.296 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.264,0.194,0.338 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.281,0.437 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.463,0.379,0.539 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.547,0.457,0.627 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.737,0.575,0.858 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.715,0.64,0.775 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.649,0.783 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.319,-0.131,-0.2,-0.069 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.045,-0.058,0.156 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.051,-0.052,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.319,-0.138,-0.209,-0.073 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.273,0.682,0.039,-0.066,0.15 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.045,-0.059,0.156 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.058,-0.055,0.174 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.092,-0.008,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.083,-0.009,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.119,0.017,0.225 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.399,0.318,0.479 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.358,0.495 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.421,0.56 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.492,0.643 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.753,0.591,0.864 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.668,0.784 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.737,0.675,0.791 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.2,-0.328,-0.099 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.014,-0.046,0.035 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.007,-0.041,0.033 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.061,-0.211,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.052,-0.065,0.172 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.077,-0.027,0.18 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.077,-0.016,0.174 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.087,-0.014,0.186 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.096,-0.024,0.206 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.14,0.04,0.237 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.146,0.062,0.235 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.114,0.014,0.217 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.265,0.199,0.33 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.298,0.225,0.37 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.388,0.308,0.468 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.416,0.557 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.2,-0.326,-0.099 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.013,-0.045,0.036 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.007,-0.04,0.034 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.054,-0.207,0.061 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.037,-0.012,0.093 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.027,-0.01,0.067 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.027,-0.014,0.083 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.065,-0.035,0.153 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.362,0.279,0.448 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.392,0.313,0.472 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.371,0.544 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.543,0.455,0.623 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.568,0.859 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.636,0.773 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.644,0.779 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.363,-0.143 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.053,-0.114,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.046,-0.106,0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.102,-0.235,0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.038,-0.103,0.012 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,-0.01,-0.07,0.032 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.03,-0.083,0.123 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.338,0.256,0.419 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.369,0.287,0.445 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.439,0.356,0.522 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.446,0.602 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.726,0.541,0.853 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.702,0.636,0.761 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.71,0.644,0.769 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.037,-0.011,0.093 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.047,-0.118,0.178 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.093,-0.067,0.22 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.1,-0.052,0.238 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.066,-0.035,0.154 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.225,0.146,0.302 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.259,0.181,0.351 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.355,0.274,0.442 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.46,0.372,0.544 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.233,-0.345,-0.125 +FlowState,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.042,-0.079,-0.006 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.545,-0.035,-0.069,-0.002 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.084,-0.219,0.026 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.028,-0.072,0.01 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.0,-0.043,0.045 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.751,0.01,-0.047,0.073 +FlowState,TFT,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.02,-0.148,0.158 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.068,-0.086,0.193 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.075,-0.062,0.201 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.04,-0.059,0.119 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.204,0.135,0.265 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.239,0.17,0.314 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.337,0.25,0.427 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.445,0.359,0.525 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.346,-0.133 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.042,-0.066,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.035,-0.076,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.091,-0.218,0.009 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.084,-0.21,0.016 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.028,-0.09,0.014 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,0.01,-0.033,0.065 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.0,-0.047,0.041 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,0.01,-0.033,0.065 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.02,-0.143,0.16 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.068,-0.078,0.191 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.074,-0.054,0.178 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.04,-0.054,0.117 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.345,0.271,0.422 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.375,0.307,0.444 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.203,0.137,0.261 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.239,0.178,0.303 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.337,0.263,0.409 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.371,0.518 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.449,0.604 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.556,0.852 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.63,0.767 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.713,0.64,0.774 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.246,-0.363,-0.143 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.053,-0.114,-0.008 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.046,-0.106,0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.095,-0.228,0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.039,-0.103,0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.432,0.249,0.614,-0.011,-0.079,0.045 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,-0.01,-0.07,0.032 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.455,0.227,0.682,0.01,-0.148,0.143 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.058,-0.092,0.188 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.065,-0.071,0.18 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.03,-0.083,0.123 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.195,0.11,0.271 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.231,0.15,0.314 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.33,0.247,0.413 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.439,0.356,0.522 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.259,-0.446,-0.105 +TFT,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.063,-0.231,0.086 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.056,-0.232,0.104 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.106,-0.259,0.023 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.049,-0.217,0.106 +TFT,FlowState,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.021,-0.187,0.129 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.02,-0.191,0.125 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.545,0.318,0.773,-0.01,-0.167,0.129 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.705,0.5,0.886,0.049,-0.044,0.132 +TFT,DeepAR,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.055,-0.05,0.185 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.02,-0.163,0.162 +TFT,CatBoost,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.187,0.055,0.304 +TFT,LightGBM,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.223,0.09,0.35 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.323,0.192,0.444 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.433,0.316,0.539 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.323,-0.533,-0.172 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.118,-0.291,0.037 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.11,-0.288,0.055 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.163,-0.31,-0.041 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.103,-0.283,0.063 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.073,-0.239,0.079 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.073,-0.237,0.072 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.062,-0.231,0.084 +PatchTST,TFT,0.295,0.114,0.5,-0.051,-0.151,0.042 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.614,0.431,0.795,0.007,-0.131,0.136 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.545,0.363,0.773,-0.03,-0.216,0.112 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.145,0.005,0.263 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.183,0.046,0.308 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.289,0.15,0.416 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.404,0.279,0.513 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.332,-0.525,-0.194 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.125,-0.275,0.012 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.118,-0.292,0.033 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.171,-0.308,-0.066 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.111,-0.313,0.05 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.081,-0.251,0.059 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.08,-0.216,0.051 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.069,-0.22,0.066 +DeepAR,TFT,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.059,-0.226,0.048 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.386,0.205,0.569,-0.007,-0.157,0.116 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.318,0.682,-0.038,-0.203,0.091 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.139,0.037,0.224 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.178,0.09,0.255 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.284,0.185,0.377 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.932,0.84,1.0,0.4,0.316,0.478 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.284,-0.412,-0.193 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.085,-0.177,0.014 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.078,-0.187,0.028 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.135,-0.29,-0.017 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.129,-0.278,-0.014 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.07,-0.181,0.034 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.031,-0.141,0.076 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.041,-0.135,0.056 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.041,-0.133,0.051 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.031,-0.141,0.076 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.02,-0.194,0.14 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.455,0.227,0.637,0.03,-0.126,0.178 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.5,0.318,0.682,0.036,-0.1,0.169 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.318,0.235,0.4 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.349,0.276,0.422 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.171,0.114,0.224 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.207,0.134,0.288 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.31,0.226,0.395 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.422,0.34,0.501 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.435,0.59 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.722,0.535,0.847 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.693,0.608,0.759 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.701,0.618,0.766 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.883,-1.149,-0.669 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.59,-0.8,-0.425 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.58,-0.811,-0.396 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.665,-0.918,-0.467 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.568,-0.811,-0.387 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.511,-0.72,-0.345 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.526,-0.73,-0.371 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.466,-0.666,-0.308 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.548,-0.684,-0.439 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.308,-0.416,-0.202 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.299,-0.42,-0.186 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.361,-0.493,-0.249 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.291,-0.433,-0.171 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.256,-0.36,-0.156 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.255,-0.353,-0.158 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.243,-0.373,-0.123 +CatBoost,TFT,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.23,-0.438,-0.058 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.17,-0.358,-0.005 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.162,-0.289,-0.038 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.206,-0.289,-0.129 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.044,0.009,0.089 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.168,0.07,0.258 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.303,0.204,0.386 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.62,-0.804,-0.479 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.368,-0.5,-0.26 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.36,-0.511,-0.241 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.424,-0.587,-0.29 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.35,-0.541,-0.221 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.314,-0.458,-0.206 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.313,-0.434,-0.216 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.3,-0.457,-0.176 +LightGBM,TFT,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.287,-0.539,-0.099 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.224,-0.444,-0.048 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.216,-0.342,-0.099 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.262,-0.404,-0.154 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.046,-0.098,-0.009 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.129,0.028,0.227 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.27,0.177,0.355 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.121,-0.642 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.774,-0.411 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.561,-0.777,-0.39 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.635,-0.88,-0.446 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.551,-0.792,-0.377 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.509,-0.744,-0.334 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.508,-0.692,-0.358 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.493,-0.704,-0.329 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.478,-0.799,-0.237 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.406,-0.711,-0.176 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.396,-0.606,-0.227 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.449,-0.653,-0.292 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.202,-0.348,-0.076 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.148,-0.293,-0.029 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.659,0.455,0.819,0.046,0.011,0.086 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.977,0.932,1.0,0.152,0.113,0.193 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.284,0.193,0.375 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.6,0.32,0.795 -AutoARIMA,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.55,0.459,0.621 -AutoARIMA,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.472,0.633 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.974,-1.221,-0.757 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.667,-0.879,-0.494 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.89,-0.461 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-0.982,-0.557 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.645,-0.894,-0.456 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.584,-0.802,-0.402 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.601,-0.798,-0.442 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.537,-0.731,-0.381 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.341,0.181,0.545,-0.049,-0.094,-0.012 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.568,0.909,0.111,0.052,0.166 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.249,0.164,0.334 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.586,0.296,0.789 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.432,0.605 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.541,0.446,0.616 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.162,0.125,0.201 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.574,-0.932 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.875,-1.161,-0.647 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.863,-1.171,-0.61 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.963,-1.27,-0.726 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.193,-0.59 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.781,-1.092,-0.552 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.951,-1.257,-0.712 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.85,-1.192,-0.592 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.8,-1.106,-0.561 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.8,-1.075,-0.59 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.781,-1.092,-0.552 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.764,-1.17,-0.462 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.678,-1.054,-0.387 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.068,0.0,0.16,-0.666,-0.914,-0.462 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.729,-1.003,-0.515 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.023,0.0,0.068,-0.179,-0.239,-0.127 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.091,0.432,-0.125,-0.199,-0.055 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.434,-0.628,-0.256 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.37,-0.55,-0.216 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.193,-0.251,-0.142 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.155,0.024,0.273 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.536,0.196,0.768 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.469,0.348,0.562 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.484,0.361,0.575 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.628,-2.087,-1.274 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.22,-1.647,-0.887 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.206,-1.679,-0.841 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.324,-1.798,-0.967 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.19,-1.652,-0.835 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.109,-1.514,-0.805 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.131,-1.525,-0.815 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.047,-1.438,-0.769 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.396,-0.6,-0.239 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.331,-0.502,-0.196 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.184,-0.375,-0.025 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.463,0.076,0.728 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.372,0.238,0.472 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.389,0.258,0.487 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.51,-7.126,-1.763 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.827,-5.973,-1.374 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.799,-6.046,-1.351 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.057,-6.34,-1.448 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.782,-6.109,-1.315 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.652,-5.817,-1.18 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.698,-5.771,-1.254 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.592,-5.554,-1.151 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.497,-3.867,-0.47 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.416,-3.74,-0.42 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.091,0.455,-1.155,-3.309,-0.244 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.863,-2.675,-0.082 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.636,0.453,0.818,-0.237,-1.691,0.327 -AutoETS,Drift,0.818,0.636,0.955,-0.212,-1.644,0.34 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.184,-4.178,-2.423 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.534,-3.481,-1.8 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.511,-3.442,-1.777 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.699,-3.63,-2.013 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.485,-3.404,-1.748 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.357,-3.188,-1.75 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.392,-3.295,-1.702 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.258,-3.142,-1.552 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.222,-1.635,-0.847 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.119,-1.531,-0.761 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.885,-1.283,-0.533 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.592,-0.894,-0.312 -Naive,AutoETS,0.364,0.182,0.547,0.192,-0.485,0.628 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.016,0.038 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.298,-4.338,-2.49 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.597,-1.865 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.607,-3.598,-1.847 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.801,-3.79,-2.081 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.581,-3.531,-1.812 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.449,-3.324,-1.805 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.485,-3.427,-1.775 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.347,-3.282,-1.615 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.283,-1.725,-0.895 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.177,-1.607,-0.806 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.936,-1.355,-0.565 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.635,-0.95,-0.348 -Drift,AutoETS,0.182,0.045,0.364,0.175,-0.515,0.622 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.027,-0.039,-0.017 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 7af69288d170dfcd64c28fbb5efcd25ca646cbd8..f4d68339df20c28ac06082e2671e960a2937cc9d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.095,0.037,0.145 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.238 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.157,0.08,0.228 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.102,0.048,0.151 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.166,0.089,0.238 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.18,0.099,0.26 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.174,0.102,0.236 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.182,0.113,0.247 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.18,0.099,0.262 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.177,0.11,0.243 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.212,0.084,0.332 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.18,0.113,0.248 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.402,0.31,0.486 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.464,0.363,0.551 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.439,0.358,0.517 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.2,0.106,0.299 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.226,0.13,0.332 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.225,0.153,0.299 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.256,0.174,0.342 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.304,0.484 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.484,0.381,0.579 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.583,0.476,0.661 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.634,0.529,0.73 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.598,0.496,0.675 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.105,-0.17,-0.039 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.186,-0.295,-0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.066,-0.174,0.019 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.011,-0.023,0.047 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.659,0.027,-0.022,0.073 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.02,-0.011,0.054 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.029,-0.011,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.341,0.705,0.024,-0.007,0.059 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.065,-0.099,0.212 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.028,-0.096,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.051,-0.105,0.164 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.082,-0.067,0.211 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.727,0.545,0.864,0.081,-0.011,0.162 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.118,0.013,0.221 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.286,0.19,0.384 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.28,0.499 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.113,-0.178,-0.05 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.062,-0.02,0.148 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.079,-0.011,0.168 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.069,-0.014,0.155 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.096,0.019,0.171 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.094,-0.006,0.199 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.091,0.013,0.172 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.094,-0.014,0.184 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.339,0.246,0.428 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.408,0.307,0.497 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.38,0.291,0.46 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.327,0.53 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.437,0.619 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.595,0.487,0.692 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.556,0.455,0.635 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.072,-0.018,0.158 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.087,-0.015,0.189 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.081,0.004,0.156 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.089,0.013,0.163 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.084,0.009,0.163 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.774,0.122,-0.012,0.246 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.087,-0.014,0.174 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.109,0.024,0.202 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.139,0.055,0.229 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.137,0.062,0.214 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.172,0.095,0.252 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.33,0.235,0.419 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.322,0.523 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.199,-0.312,-0.097 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.086,-0.202,0.011 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.011,-0.05,0.023 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.077,-0.188,0.018 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.017,-0.042,0.059 +TiRex,FlowState,0.5,0.273,0.682,0.01,-0.031,0.048 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.019,-0.004,0.039 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.017,-0.042,0.058 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.013,-0.016,0.042 +TiRex,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.055,-0.118,0.201 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.017,-0.108,0.123 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.282,0.193,0.37 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.358,0.255,0.456 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.245,0.406 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.04,-0.101,0.156 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.072,-0.068,0.191 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.071,-0.024,0.154 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.108,-0.003,0.208 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.278,0.191,0.365 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.382,0.279,0.484 -TiRex,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.5,0.401,0.587 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.561,0.429,0.669 -TiRex,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.518,0.418,0.604 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.186,-0.295,-0.087 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.074,-0.183,0.014 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.011,-0.023,0.047 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.409,0.795,0.029,-0.011,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.659,0.027,-0.021,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.341,0.705,0.024,-0.007,0.059 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.028,-0.096,0.132 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.29,0.194,0.39 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.365,0.258,0.465 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.334,0.246,0.421 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.28,0.499 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.506,0.404,0.594 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.565,0.443,0.674 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.523,0.423,0.609 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.219,-0.352,-0.11 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.523,0.341,0.705,-0.028,-0.079,0.021 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.096,-0.233,0.014 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.017,-0.062,0.04 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.477,0.273,0.659,-0.007,-0.058,0.044 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.002,-0.052,0.064 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,-0.003,-0.05,0.044 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.039,-0.128,0.181 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.0,-0.139,0.12 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.024,-0.146,0.162 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.057,-0.112,0.212 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.055,-0.054,0.16 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.093,-0.034,0.221 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.266,0.168,0.367 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.371,0.26,0.487 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.211,-0.309,-0.113 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.021,-0.057,0.011 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.088,-0.184,-0.004 +FlowState,TiRex,0.5,0.318,0.727,-0.01,-0.05,0.03 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.341,0.727,0.007,-0.046,0.055 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,0.009,-0.026,0.05 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.004,-0.039,0.04 +FlowState,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.045,-0.118,0.194 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.007,-0.118,0.11 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.031,-0.106,0.146 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.063,-0.084,0.199 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.062,-0.036,0.152 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.099,-0.016,0.211 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.271,0.171,0.37 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.376,0.259,0.489 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.222,-0.328,-0.127 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.106,-0.206,-0.019 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.019,-0.041,0.004 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.386,0.205,0.591,-0.03,-0.074,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.098,-0.195,-0.013 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.019,-0.041,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.002,-0.068,0.049 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,-0.009,-0.052,0.025 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.66,-0.002,-0.067,0.049 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.006,-0.036,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.037,-0.137,0.189 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.002,-0.122,0.099 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.269,0.182,0.355 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.346,0.24,0.446 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.314,0.236,0.392 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.022,-0.112,0.133 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.055,-0.083,0.17 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.053,-0.039,0.132 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.091,-0.009,0.19 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.264,0.177,0.352 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.37,0.264,0.475 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.491,0.391,0.578 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.552,0.426,0.662 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.509,0.409,0.595 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.219,-0.354,-0.11 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.104,-0.249,0.006 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.017,-0.062,0.04 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.523,0.341,0.705,-0.028,-0.079,0.021 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.523,0.34,0.705,0.002,-0.051,0.063 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,-0.003,-0.05,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.0,-0.139,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.27,0.176,0.374 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.347,0.238,0.456 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.403 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.371,0.259,0.488 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.492,0.389,0.58 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.553,0.411,0.67 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.51,0.406,0.597 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.215,-0.32,-0.123 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.1,-0.207,-0.014 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.043,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.295,0.659,-0.025,-0.062,0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.005,-0.022,0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.092,-0.195,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.013,-0.043,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,0.003,-0.046,0.048 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.004,-0.042,0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.005,-0.022,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.042,-0.124,0.192 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.004,-0.123,0.11 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.273,0.185,0.365 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.349,0.245,0.453 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.237,0.403 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.028,-0.112,0.151 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.06,-0.077,0.183 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.058,-0.033,0.145 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.096,-0.01,0.199 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.268,0.177,0.362 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.373,0.266,0.484 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.493,0.391,0.584 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.555,0.43,0.666 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.512,0.409,0.6 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.268,-0.497,-0.091 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.069,-0.269,0.09 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.226,0.636,-0.14,-0.327,0.011 +TFT,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.058,-0.251,0.106 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.04,-0.221,0.113 +TFT,FlowState,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.048,-0.24,0.106 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.038,-0.233,0.121 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.044,-0.238,0.11 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.409,0.773,-0.04,-0.266,0.114 +TFT,PatchTST,0.614,0.386,0.796,-0.015,-0.16,0.087 +TFT,DeepAR,0.614,0.409,0.818,0.019,-0.113,0.166 +TFT,CatBoost,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.017,-0.17,0.17 +TFT,LightGBM,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.056,-0.101,0.21 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.236,0.111,0.351 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.886,0.75,1.0,0.346,0.224,0.457 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.22,-0.33,-0.127 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.104,-0.226,0.014 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.017,-0.14,0.098 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.028,-0.152,0.088 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.002,-0.109,0.109 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.096,-0.21,0.014 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.017,-0.14,0.098 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.0,-0.137,0.122 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.007,-0.124,0.106 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.002,-0.109,0.109 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.004,-0.124,0.11 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.409,0.227,0.591,0.038,-0.129,0.21 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.27,0.157,0.38 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.347,0.251,0.438 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.316,0.213,0.415 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.024,-0.126,0.177 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.545,0.364,0.773,0.056,-0.08,0.207 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.055,-0.01,0.11 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.093,-0.003,0.187 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.266,0.154,0.376 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.371,0.263,0.473 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.492,0.358,0.604 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.553,0.427,0.666 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.51,0.378,0.619 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.671,-0.945,-0.449 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.513,-0.749,-0.326 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.394,-0.587,-0.239 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.409,-0.639,-0.24 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.368,-0.55,-0.223 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.371,-0.596,-0.214 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.375,-0.575,-0.227 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.37,-0.614,-0.186 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.25,-0.426,-0.118 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.054,-0.196,0.095 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.123,-0.253,-0.024 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.042,-0.185,0.091 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.025,-0.194,0.127 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.032,-0.171,0.096 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.023,-0.154,0.101 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.028,-0.178,0.101 +PatchTST,TFT,0.386,0.204,0.614,0.015,-0.095,0.138 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.025,-0.215,0.112 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.523,0.318,0.727,0.033,-0.068,0.143 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.031,-0.122,0.163 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.07,-0.076,0.203 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.248,0.125,0.359 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.841,0.681,0.977,0.356,0.222,0.477 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.293,-0.497,-0.15 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.09,-0.267,0.063 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.161,-0.296,-0.058 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.078,-0.237,0.064 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.06,-0.269,0.1 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.068,-0.248,0.077 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.058,-0.204,0.077 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.064,-0.224,0.072 +DeepAR,TFT,0.386,0.182,0.591,-0.019,-0.198,0.101 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.455,0.227,0.636,-0.06,-0.26,0.074 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.477,0.273,0.682,-0.034,-0.166,0.064 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.002,-0.139,0.114 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.038,-0.061,0.133 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.222,0.13,0.308 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.886,1.0,0.333,0.238,0.422 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.29,-0.426,-0.181 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.136,0.455,-0.088,-0.193,0.011 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.159,-0.272,-0.066 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.076,-0.182,0.024 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.058,-0.19,0.051 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.066,-0.179,0.035 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.056,-0.152,0.037 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.062,-0.169,0.032 +CatBoost,TFT,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.017,-0.206,0.145 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.058,-0.123,0.01 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.032,-0.194,0.109 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.002,-0.128,0.122 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.04,-0.024,0.101 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.223,0.115,0.324 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.335,0.228,0.43 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.344,-0.52,-0.21 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.133,-0.284,-0.013 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.208,-0.338,-0.105 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.121,-0.262,0.003 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.102,-0.283,0.033 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.11,-0.268,0.016 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.1,-0.235,0.009 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.106,-0.249,0.01 +LightGBM,TFT,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.06,-0.267,0.092 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.102,-0.231,0.003 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.076,-0.255,0.07 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.04,-0.154,0.057 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.042,-0.113,0.024 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.773,0.591,0.91,0.191,0.077,0.291 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.307,0.216,0.39 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.939,-0.436 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.4,-0.624,-0.234 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.492,-0.722,-0.308 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.385,-0.575,-0.236 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.362,-0.58,-0.201 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.372,-0.587,-0.206 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.359,-0.543,-0.215 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.367,-0.568,-0.215 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.309,-0.541,-0.125 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.362,-0.603,-0.182 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.329,-0.56,-0.142 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.285,-0.444,-0.149 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.287,-0.478,-0.13 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.227,0.09,0.409,-0.235,-0.41,-0.084 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.795,0.614,0.955,0.105,0.036,0.203 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.727,0.544,0.909,0.062,0.019,0.105 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.636,0.955,0.138,0.07,0.222 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.303,0.203,0.393 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.388,0.219,0.54 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.328,0.229,0.417 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.867,-1.229,-0.57 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.69,-0.989,-0.443 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.557,-0.838,-0.343 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.574,-0.869,-0.347 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.528,-0.804,-0.316 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.531,-0.838,-0.312 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.537,-0.827,-0.324 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.531,-0.778,-0.336 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.386,-0.117,-0.254,-0.037 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.409,0.182,0.592,-0.048,-0.193,0.046 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.545,0.909,0.037,-0.013,0.084 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.222,0.036,0.352 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.316,0.103,0.497 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.25,0.065,0.38 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.782,-1.071,-0.558 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.613,-0.85,-0.411 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.486,-0.683,-0.324 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.503,-0.728,-0.327 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.458,-0.645,-0.309 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.461,-0.676,-0.297 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.675,-0.31 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.461,-0.709,-0.271 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.273,0.091,0.456,-0.066,-0.117,-0.019 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.591,0.408,0.818,0.046,-0.049,0.162 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.081,-0.008,0.185 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.257,0.148,0.355 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.347,0.171,0.503 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.284,0.177,0.38 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.144,0.078,0.224 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.94,-1.374,-0.616 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.756,-1.125,-0.485 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.617,-0.937,-0.386 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.996,-0.389 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.743,-1.097,-0.476 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.617,-0.937,-0.386 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.59,-0.949,-0.351 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.602,-0.958,-0.35 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.587,-0.905,-0.359 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.591,-0.954,-0.349 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.596,-0.938,-0.363 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.114,0.0,0.25,-0.529,-0.843,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.59,-0.896,-0.357 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.364,-0.16,-0.285,-0.075 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.091,0.455,-0.039,-0.092,0.013 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.088,-0.227,0.008 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.159,0.023,0.319,-0.552,-0.911,-0.285 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.045,0.0,0.114,-0.5,-0.729,-0.313 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.503,-0.754,-0.295 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.443,-0.64,-0.276 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.168,-0.288,-0.085 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.191,0.008,0.328 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.289,0.066,0.473 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.221,0.038,0.355 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.399,-1.946,-0.908 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.171,-1.624,-0.777 -Naive,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.0,-1.421,-0.669 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.022,-1.461,-0.678 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.963,-1.368,-0.643 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.967,-1.38,-0.637 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.974,-1.401,-0.642 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.967,-1.522,-0.557 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.435,-0.649,-0.254 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.285,-0.543,-0.037 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.346,-0.549,-0.174 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.237,-0.487,-0.008 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.545,0.363,0.727,0.121,-0.128,0.347 -Naive,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.036,0.02,0.055 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.729,-2.697,-1.123 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.47,-2.244,-0.949 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.276,-2.025,-0.753 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.301,-2.071,-0.797 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.233,-1.956,-0.742 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.238,-2.026,-0.699 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.246,-1.995,-0.754 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.237,-1.993,-0.744 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.633,-1.173,-0.281 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.462,-0.986,-0.115 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.531,-1.013,-0.206 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.407,-0.899,-0.071 -AutoETS,Naive,0.455,0.273,0.637,-0.138,-0.532,0.113 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Drift,0.591,0.364,0.774,-0.097,-0.461,0.145 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.488,-2.076,-0.985 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.252,-1.74,-0.834 -Drift,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.075,-1.525,-0.719 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.098,-1.556,-0.734 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.036,-1.468,-0.692 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.041,-1.478,-0.685 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.045,0.0,0.136,-1.048,-1.501,-0.693 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.04,-1.623,-0.608 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.489,-0.716,-0.298 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.333,-0.614,-0.069 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.396,-0.613,-0.215 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.283,-0.551,-0.039 -Drift,Naive,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.037,-0.058,-0.02 -Drift,AutoETS,0.409,0.226,0.636,0.088,-0.17,0.316 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 563b8ed78709a16ad21ec8f52208e1d729fd32bb..82e1bd0c304c9124ce946f484bdb4ec62f1ffeb6 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.166,0.087,0.238 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.166,0.089,0.237 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.113,0.056,0.166 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.189,0.107,0.27 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.125,0.069,0.18 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.191,0.113,0.255 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.188,0.107,0.269 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.193,0.127,0.256 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.2,0.134,0.264 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.243,0.103,0.378 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.249,0.149,0.354 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.248,0.138,0.358 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.25,0.186,0.313 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.439,0.59 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.536,0.462,0.603 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.333,0.466 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.316,0.43 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.513,0.432,0.585 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.597,0.518,0.669 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.649,0.58,0.71 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.813,0.696,0.893 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.721,0.809 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.775,0.727,0.815 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.199,-0.312,-0.095 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.0,-0.041,0.034 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.064,-0.187,0.043 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.027,-0.023,0.065 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.591,0.364,0.773,-0.049,-0.166,0.052 +TiRex,FlowState,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.03,-0.016,0.073 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.027,-0.024,0.064 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.032,-0.001,0.06 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.041,0.019,0.061 +TiRex,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.092,-0.097,0.252 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.099,-0.044,0.215 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.098,-0.059,0.23 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.101,-0.006,0.194 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.332,0.508 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.444,0.353,0.531 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.279,0.194,0.354 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.249,0.174,0.313 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.326,0.502 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.424,0.603 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.488,0.66 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.777,0.629,0.88 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.654,0.778 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.662,0.785 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.2,-0.31,-0.098 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.0,-0.035,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.273,0.727,-0.065,-0.186,0.034 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.34,0.727,0.027,-0.022,0.072 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.545,0.318,0.728,-0.049,-0.168,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.03,-0.007,0.067 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.523,0.34,0.727,0.026,-0.023,0.071 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.477,0.818,0.031,0.0,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.705,0.523,0.886,0.041,-0.001,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.091,-0.1,0.251 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.099,-0.052,0.22 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.098,-0.068,0.231 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.1,-0.019,0.195 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.423,0.325,0.514 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.444,0.345,0.536 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.279,0.195,0.363 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.248,0.173,0.317 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.319,0.509 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.516,0.416,0.61 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.579,0.484,0.664 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.776,0.626,0.879 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.655,0.78 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.664,0.786 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.127,-0.199,-0.06 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.06,-0.045,0.158 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.273,0.727,0.061,-0.035,0.157 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.143,-0.22,-0.074 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.636,0.047,-0.055,0.142 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.455,0.272,0.682,0.047,-0.05,0.144 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.086,-0.028,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.408,0.818,0.09,0.007,0.178 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.682,0.499,0.864,0.099,0.012,0.183 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.155,0.052,0.247 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.458,0.364,0.539 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.477,0.39,0.552 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.458,0.624 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.522,0.676 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.793,0.665,0.884 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.739,0.686,0.787 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.747,0.693,0.792 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.233,-0.369,-0.12 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.028,-0.07,0.022 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.273,0.66,-0.028,-0.078,0.021 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.094,-0.251,0.027 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.075,-0.027,0.163 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.072,-0.043,0.183 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.591,0.409,0.818,0.077,-0.014,0.166 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.636,0.455,0.818,0.086,-0.004,0.171 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.545,0.364,0.727,0.134,-0.01,0.264 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.141,0.05,0.234 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.14,0.029,0.252 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.143,0.038,0.236 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.313,0.242,0.38 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.284,0.215,0.353 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.443,0.35,0.523 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.539,0.453,0.615 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.236,-0.343,-0.128 +FlowState,TiRex,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.031,-0.079,0.015 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.03,-0.072,0.007 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.081,-0.195,0.026 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.477,0.295,0.682,-0.003,-0.059,0.046 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.659,0.455,0.818,0.002,-0.046,0.044 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.011,-0.033,0.056 +FlowState,TFT,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.064,-0.132,0.234 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.071,-0.081,0.203 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.07,-0.093,0.206 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.073,-0.044,0.172 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.818,0.682,0.955,0.257,0.16,0.35 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.226,0.146,0.303 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.398,0.294,0.497 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.502,0.393,0.6 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.232,-0.367,-0.119 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.027,-0.068,0.023 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.477,0.273,0.66,-0.027,-0.077,0.023 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.078,-0.224,0.041 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.523,0.318,0.705,0.003,-0.048,0.056 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.614,0.432,0.795,0.004,-0.046,0.053 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.014,-0.037,0.071 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.075,-0.049,0.183 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.407,0.308,0.503 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.428,0.328,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.399,0.603 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.467,0.656 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.771,0.618,0.876 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.715,0.641,0.772 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.723,0.651,0.779 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.568,0.386,0.75,0.005,-0.045,0.054 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.568,0.364,0.75,0.015,-0.037,0.071 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.067,-0.112,0.225 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.682,0.5,0.864,0.075,-0.105,0.22 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.073,-0.1,0.22 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.076,-0.049,0.183 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.259,0.158,0.361 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.228,0.142,0.313 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.4,0.303,0.498 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.4,0.602 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.344,-0.145 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.033,-0.064,0.001 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.341,0.182,0.523,-0.032,-0.066,-0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.182,0.592,-0.099,-0.217,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.005,-0.056,0.044 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.182,0.591,-0.083,-0.199,0.014 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.341,0.182,0.545,-0.002,-0.046,0.044 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.614,-0.005,-0.057,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.477,0.318,0.636,0.01,-0.019,0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.773,0.062,-0.119,0.222 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.07,-0.073,0.193 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.069,-0.086,0.204 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.071,-0.042,0.169 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.313,0.494 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.333,0.516 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.255,0.174,0.335 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.224,0.154,0.291 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.307,0.489 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.404,0.593 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.566,0.476,0.649 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.771,0.615,0.876 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.646,0.768 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.721,0.656,0.775 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.25,-0.358,-0.155 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.043,-0.066,-0.019 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.295,0.114,0.477,-0.042,-0.087,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.318,0.136,0.501,-0.11,-0.224,-0.012 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.014,-0.076,0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.364,0.182,0.545,-0.094,-0.206,0.004 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.386,0.205,0.568,-0.011,-0.06,0.032 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.432,0.25,0.636,-0.015,-0.076,0.036 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.523,0.364,0.682,-0.01,-0.042,0.019 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.053,-0.141,0.222 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.636,0.409,0.818,0.061,-0.088,0.181 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.636,0.453,0.818,0.06,-0.097,0.189 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.062,-0.043,0.153 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.306,0.484 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.42,0.325,0.51 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.248,0.165,0.326 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.217,0.144,0.278 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.391,0.298,0.479 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.401,0.584 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.561,0.472,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.612,0.876 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.711,0.643,0.766 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.65,0.774 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.32,-0.607,-0.115 +TFT,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.101,-0.338,0.089 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.101,-0.336,0.091 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.455,0.273,0.636,-0.155,-0.359,0.01 +TFT,FlowState,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.068,-0.306,0.116 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.072,-0.29,0.101 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.455,0.227,0.682,-0.066,-0.285,0.107 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.056,-0.286,0.124 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,DeepAR,0.614,0.409,0.818,0.008,-0.125,0.156 +TFT,PatchTST,0.705,0.5,0.886,0.007,-0.143,0.113 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.727,0.5,0.909,0.01,-0.23,0.175 +TFT,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.206,0.052,0.345 +TFT,CatBoost,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.173,-0.017,0.319 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.357,0.235,0.471 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.468,0.359,0.57 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.331,-0.549,-0.175 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.11,-0.275,0.042 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.11,-0.282,0.049 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.165,-0.306,-0.052 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.077,-0.255,0.075 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.318,0.136,0.5,-0.081,-0.282,0.095 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.075,-0.24,0.068 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.065,-0.221,0.081 +DeepAR,TFT,0.386,0.182,0.591,-0.008,-0.185,0.111 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.432,0.227,0.636,-0.001,-0.147,0.115 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.545,0.318,0.727,0.001,-0.193,0.136 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.199,0.106,0.285 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.166,0.043,0.265 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.352,0.247,0.442 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.932,0.84,1.0,0.463,0.374,0.545 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.33,-0.559,-0.16 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.109,-0.298,0.056 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.108,-0.3,0.064 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.163,-0.336,-0.03 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.076,-0.26,0.085 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.409,0.227,0.636,-0.079,-0.281,0.091 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.364,0.182,0.591,-0.074,-0.256,0.079 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.364,0.182,0.547,-0.063,-0.233,0.088 +PatchTST,TFT,0.295,0.114,0.5,-0.007,-0.127,0.125 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.568,0.364,0.773,0.001,-0.13,0.129 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.591,0.364,0.818,0.003,-0.203,0.157 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.2,0.049,0.338 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.167,0.007,0.302 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.352,0.204,0.475 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.818,0.636,0.955,0.464,0.333,0.578 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.333,-0.455,-0.229 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.112,-0.241,0.006 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.111,-0.243,0.018 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.183,-0.328,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.081,-0.225,0.047 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.166,-0.308,-0.039 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.079,-0.208,0.042 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.082,-0.224,0.046 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.077,-0.204,0.041 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.066,-0.181,0.041 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.273,0.091,0.5,-0.01,-0.211,0.187 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.455,0.273,0.682,-0.001,-0.157,0.162 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.409,0.182,0.636,-0.003,-0.186,0.168 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.358,0.266,0.443 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.382,0.29,0.462 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.198,0.115,0.285 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.165,0.103,0.219 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.351,0.257,0.435 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.462,0.369,0.545 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.532,0.445,0.608 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.593,0.869 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.692,0.617,0.752 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.7,0.627,0.759 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.077,-1.437,-0.782 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.032,-0.496 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.732,-1.059,-0.482 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.844,-1.171,-0.573 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.685,-1.011,-0.446 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.677,-0.975,-0.455 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.661,-0.937,-0.441 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.558,-0.796,-0.363 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.663,-0.874,-0.5 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.387,-0.549,-0.241 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.386,-0.571,-0.242 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.455,-0.613,-0.32 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.182,0.045,0.318,-0.345,-0.538,-0.19 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.35,-0.564,-0.187 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.343,-0.505,-0.211 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.33,-0.484,-0.198 +LightGBM,TFT,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.259,-0.527,-0.055 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.249,-0.398,-0.118 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.251,-0.512,-0.052 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.247,-0.399,-0.129 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.318,0.136,0.545,-0.042,-0.113,0.024 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.19,0.094,0.275 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.864,0.727,1.0,0.33,0.229,0.412 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.596,-0.753,-0.463 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.331,-0.456,-0.211 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.331,-0.464,-0.209 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.396,-0.545,-0.273 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.291,-0.435,-0.171 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.296,-0.455,-0.165 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.289,-0.41,-0.182 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.277,-0.386,-0.168 +CatBoost,TFT,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.209,-0.468,0.017 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.199,-0.361,-0.045 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.2,-0.432,-0.007 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.197,-0.281,-0.115 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.682,0.455,0.864,0.04,-0.024,0.101 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.223,0.112,0.324 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.773,0.591,0.955,0.356,0.245,0.456 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.053,-1.408,-0.761 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.712,-1.007,-0.483 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-1.035,-0.469 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.796,-1.095,-0.539 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.661,-0.989,-0.416 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.666,-0.992,-0.434 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.658,-0.956,-0.442 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.642,-0.92,-0.424 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.555,-0.889,-0.307 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.542,-0.791,-0.329 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.544,-0.907,-0.256 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.54,-0.771,-0.345 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.235,-0.378,-0.103 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.273,0.091,0.455,-0.286,-0.479,-0.126 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.614,0.409,0.818,0.037,-0.004,0.081 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.977,0.932,1.0,0.162,0.119,0.205 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.271,0.178,0.367 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.628,0.353,0.808 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.52,0.418,0.593 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.909,0.773,1.0,0.533,0.43,0.607 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.156,-1.518,-0.859 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.798,-1.131,-0.546 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.797,-1.156,-0.526 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.913,-1.234,-0.639 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.749,-1.105,-0.488 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-1.067,-0.499 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.724,-1.04,-0.482 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.617,-0.859,-0.409 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.386,0.182,0.591,-0.038,-0.088,0.004 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.636,0.955,0.131,0.076,0.182 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.955,0.864,1.0,0.244,0.157,0.337 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.955,0.818,1.0,0.621,0.344,0.806 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.501,0.411,0.575 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.515,0.423,0.589 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.172,0.133,0.212 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.48,-2.023,-1.074 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.068,-1.516,-0.736 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.067,-1.562,-0.712 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.201,-1.657,-0.845 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.012,-1.517,-0.665 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.169,-1.597,-0.828 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.006,-1.502,-0.648 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.516,-0.667 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.003,-1.456,-0.678 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.407,-0.67 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.878,-1.324,-0.56 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.068,0.0,0.16,-0.863,-1.199,-0.598 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.182,0.045,0.364,-0.865,-1.371,-0.499 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.86,-1.199,-0.585 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.023,0.0,0.068,-0.194,-0.258,-0.135 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.045,0.364,-0.15,-0.223,-0.082 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.136,0.0,0.273,-0.491,-0.701,-0.297 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.227,0.045,0.409,-0.554,-0.838,-0.324 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.208,-0.269,-0.153 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.591,0.409,0.773,0.13,0.003,0.249 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.727,0.545,0.909,0.565,0.229,0.782 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.426,0.302,0.517 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.864,0.682,1.0,0.442,0.315,0.534 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.851,-2.443,-1.382 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.377,-1.943,-0.953 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.376,-1.975,-0.938 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.53,-2.088,-1.092 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.312,-1.907,-0.876 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.302,-1.85,-0.907 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.28,-1.816,-0.895 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.138,-1.551,-0.801 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-0.372,-0.58,-0.216 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.136,-0.322,-0.507,-0.187 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.409,0.227,0.591,-0.149,-0.331,-0.003 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.591,0.364,0.773,0.513,0.154,0.751 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.341,0.203,0.442 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.773,0.591,0.909,0.359,0.225,0.46 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-4.341,-8.33,-2.287 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.481,-7.326,-1.692 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.473,-7.238,-1.675 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.838,-7.63,-1.983 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-3.371,-7.047,-1.615 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.359,-7.036,-1.597 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.32,-7.05,-1.576 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.117,-6.616,-1.457 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.687,-4.221,-0.546 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.045,0.0,0.182,-1.637,-4.154,-0.525 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.273,0.091,0.455,-1.297,-3.597,-0.296 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.409,0.227,0.636,-1.051,-3.024,-0.182 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.636,0.455,0.818,-0.426,-2.047,0.201 -AutoETS,Drift,0.727,0.545,0.909,-0.396,-1.976,0.224 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.325,-4.244,-2.585 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.606,-3.512,-1.888 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.605,-3.539,-1.902 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.838,-3.69,-2.18 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-2.508,-3.387,-1.786 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.492,-3.309,-1.826 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.459,-3.282,-1.803 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.244,-3.03,-1.61 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.082,-1.456,-0.718 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.006,-1.354,-0.699 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.744,-1.072,-0.432 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.517,-0.793,-0.255 -Naive,AutoETS,0.364,0.182,0.545,0.299,-0.251,0.672 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.027,0.017,0.038 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.445,-4.405,-2.661 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.707,-3.646,-1.958 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.705,-3.677,-1.978 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.945,-3.816,-2.253 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.045,0.0,0.136,-2.606,-3.534,-1.862 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.59,-3.437,-1.903 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.555,-3.429,-1.858 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.334,-3.151,-1.678 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.091,0.0,0.227,-1.14,-1.548,-0.753 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.062,-1.431,-0.732 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.136,0.0,0.318,-0.792,-1.144,-0.46 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.227,0.091,0.409,-0.559,-0.851,-0.29 -Drift,AutoETS,0.273,0.091,0.455,0.284,-0.288,0.664 -Drift,Naive,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.028,-0.04,-0.017 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 896c1953a14b52112fc5188aec02f4b7de6d1e6c..d8dd3ed9011aa2caa624e5b23e35762d978b1664 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Stat. Ensemble,84.87394957983193,31.60425731862634,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.41176470588235,30.532536224691174,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.94957983193277,29.907299796780073,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,68.90756302521008,29.300272942864037,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,59.243697478991585,27.04334067358627,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoARIMA,53.781512605042,26.95504973130829,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,50.84033613445379,24.962106226025238,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,50.0,23.870081464197433,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,47.47899159663866,22.54132876098356,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -Drift,45.378151260504204,14.172808093870426,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,40.54621848739495,23.41596396885234,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,39.285714285714285,21.200363608688978,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -Sundial-Base,23.529411764705873,14.82873276930089,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,20.168067226890756,4.657015263286168,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,12.605042016806726,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,84.70588235294117,31.60414865708665,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,79.41176470588235,30.53253625903064,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.88235294117646,29.90729981120045,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,72.05882352941175,28.94758895718843,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,69.70588235294117,29.300272925895733,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,62.3529411764706,27.443858197799376,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,62.35294117647059,27.04334068544614,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +CatBoost,59.999999999999986,27.034786805136346,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,58.823529411764696,27.938640079737077,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,57.94117647058824,26.955049688404376,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,51.470588235294116,24.96210622300068,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,50.0,23.90713300847127,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Drift,44.41176470588236,14.172808114999302,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,41.61764705882353,23.415963966234756,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,40.14705882352941,21.20036359424431,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +DeepAR,33.235294117647044,18.404781101049906,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,25.588235294117645,14.828732811403134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,22.94117647058823,9.969491749924131,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +Naive,22.352941176470583,4.657015240443951,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +TFT,20.0,7.2631654434387904,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.0,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 0614712ed0bc83215d17c37d25276e9d4874ead3..42b6b317504dac32a334c7e6a5aae0e516336536 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.65546218487397,32.50619250795804,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,86.1344537815126,31.864956176489333,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,75.63025210084032,30.619627501999513,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,62.60504201680671,27.45388712084713,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,62.18487394957981,23.938814370075377,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,56.30252100840336,25.30688806869693,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,55.46218487394958,25.26055614118038,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,51.470588235294116,25.546718740107966,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.0,25.353548217105605,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,43.487394957983184,22.311614614421458,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoTheta,42.85714285714285,22.773093517189103,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,31.092436974789923,7.532134668823886,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,17.64705882352941,9.65596394521091,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.445378151260504,-2.479358196357717,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,13.025210084033615,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.82352941176471,32.50619254796663,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,87.3529411764706,31.864956165412174,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,78.52941176470587,30.6194130690149,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,77.05882352941174,29.756158497560868,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,72.05882352941175,29.111909362943443,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,67.94117647058823,27.453887143184406,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,66.47058823529412,23.93881415260619,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,60.29411764705881,25.340510079762048,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.38235294117647,25.546718735921615,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,56.470588235294116,25.353548156637395,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,50.44117647058823,22.311614601785536,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoTheta,49.41176470588234,22.773093515453148,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,42.35294117647059,18.95227595931224,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +Drift,34.411764705882355,7.532134770506794,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,28.38235294117647,11.558604544866135,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,26.764705882352942,13.644306827349173,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +TFT,24.55882352941176,6.970181833006062,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,22.94117647058823,13.157433589700718,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,22.35294117647059,9.655963998764527,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,17.64705882352941,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,17.352941176470587,-2.4793582422915295,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 7b00215fa6623e9da0823f7d46afc2d5be2eee1d..214608fb7f75196bc608cf20c2b1cc028356f82e 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Stat. Ensemble,73.52941176470587,31.77346976331744,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,73.52941176470587,30.081050594899338,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,71.42857142857143,31.178074231641617,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,67.64705882352942,28.807732865723988,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,61.344537815126046,28.918186440902517,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,61.344537815126046,28.748363751928274,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,57.14285714285714,24.73773635509896,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoARIMA,50.4201680672269,28.81554946179643,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,46.42857142857142,21.77797102351108,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,46.00840336134453,19.902282110003313,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoTheta,40.7563025210084,23.951462461638883,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,38.23529411764706,12.008595721613913,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Naive,25.630252100840334,4.816376607059247,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,21.008403361344538,11.581561125483809,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.546218487394956,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,75.88235294117645,30.081050457081993,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,75.0,31.77302727530469,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,74.70588235294117,31.178074157120616,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.29411764705883,31.21110067813505,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,70.29411764705881,28.807733540481053,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +FlowState,70.0,30.765940098594292,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,63.82352941176471,28.748363429468192,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,57.94117647058823,24.751569683371734,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoARIMA,54.70588235294118,28.81554958594127,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,51.764705882352935,24.472736703476706,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,49.85294117647059,19.902281176879587,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,49.55882352941177,21.777971337308443,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,49.11764705882352,23.39157666623001,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,43.52941176470588,23.951462230472398,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +Drift,40.294117647058826,12.00859537363812,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +Naive,29.411764705882348,4.816376316650361,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,28.529411764705877,14.69276032297161,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +TFT,27.352941176470587,5.59099536017399,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,26.17647058823529,11.581561029743536,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,22.352941176470583,8.6187097646932,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.41176470588235,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 8e48cf7025eb964c4f05e81e4966a6a24d0d1f68..079a1e849e2df2a1b1bf5ee73ecbe861ce008628 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -TiRex,80.67226890756302,34.840937215984916,0.0,0.1332539193820225,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,79.83193277310924,35.31685135274234,0.0,0.16023483806451613,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.00840336134455,33.16119954820973,0.0,0.304871195505618,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.80672268907563,33.27760916396566,0.0,19.14966970786517,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,65.12605042016808,31.993310800171226,0.0,54.17901169901961,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,63.025210084033624,29.78720066477729,0.0,4.43599805469697,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -AutoETS,56.722689075630264,30.176887545915974,0.0,1.0143332196078432,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,54.83193277310924,27.870116986324867,0.0,0.11052557837078651,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,51.890756302521,25.33039827401239,0.0,0.21779003071564282,0.17647058823529413,0.0 -AutoARIMA,47.47899159663865,27.948988113145624,0.0,4.148168638787879,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,37.81512605042017,22.68721175922429,0.0,0.7411717437254902,0.0,0.0 -Drift,24.78991596638655,4.105439058231363,0.0,0.4007243730392157,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,20.168067226890756,11.21483343362134,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,15.126050420168067,0.0,0.0,0.4017768956862745,0.0,0.0 -Naive,14.705882352941174,-4.030261224151066,0.0,0.4082834258823529,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.6470588235294,35.31685152461066,0.0,0.1675622006451613,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,82.6470588235294,34.840937302524225,0.0,0.1428734488764045,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,78.23529411764706,34.78764265431883,0.0,0.8030137029411765,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,75.00000000000001,35.14923905262079,0.0,53.464398235686275,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,74.70588235294117,33.1611996370734,0.0,0.300447106741573,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,70.0,31.993182268159337,0.0,56.487774234313726,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.1764705882353,29.814447214956086,0.0,4.575649140757576,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +AutoETS,62.941176470588246,30.176887641206196,0.0,0.9996816480645161,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.44117647058825,27.87011707717124,0.0,0.11144018651685393,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,58.08823529411765,25.330398382950904,0.0,0.2131613306839772,0.17647058823529413,0.0 +AutoARIMA,54.41176470588236,27.948988222402328,0.0,4.093532921161616,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,44.99999999999999,22.687211866018643,0.0,0.7425851477450981,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,36.17647058823529,16.415472979310586,375.9662100911765,0.15036647323529412,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,28.676470588235293,13.012464361157516,269.84668655656867,0.15002605903225805,0.0,0.0 +Drift,28.235294117647054,4.105439375083986,0.0,0.414788997254902,0.0,0.0 +TFT,27.79411764705882,7.687085486183776,331.95714435490197,0.16816778392156864,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,26.764705882352935,13.410408922172534,2.6764738721212122,0.03868938677419355,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,26.470588235294112,11.214833669530645,0.0,7.9919304493548395,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,25.294117647058822,12.170893500780867,0.10358782967741936,0.03398107580645161,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.88235294117647,0.0,0.0,0.38861874,0.0,0.0 +Naive,19.41176470588235,-4.030261072578956,0.0,0.40925864460784306,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv index fcd8b3c62a01ecfa7fea823edf88eba031f4e8fc..9f661bc4dbbca9a9889cfd63a1675661e224a954 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.015,-0.023,0.058 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.024,-0.009,0.06 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,0.002,0.08 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.033,0.013,0.053 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.057,0.023,0.093 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.026,0.099 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.063,0.02,0.109 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.064,0.031,0.113 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.051,0.016,0.082 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.101,0.049,0.15 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.089,0.057,0.118 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.102,0.05,0.15 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.117,0.063,0.18 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.083,0.363 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.107,0.064,0.147 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.132,0.084,0.175 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.139,0.26 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.283,0.17,0.419 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.316,0.229,0.413 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.016,-0.062,0.023 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.009,-0.022,0.037 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.022,-0.031,0.077 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.009,0.042 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.043,-0.019,0.098 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,-0.009,0.101 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,0.01,0.084 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.049,-0.011,0.112 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.036,0.002,0.066 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.087,0.014,0.15 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.074,0.014,0.122 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.088,0.015,0.151 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.763,1.0,0.103,0.044,0.169 Chronos-2,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.191,0.047,0.356 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.054,0.135 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.118,0.064,0.171 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.184,0.14,0.229 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.157,0.409 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.305,0.224,0.397 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.025,-0.064,0.009 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.009,-0.038,0.022 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.014,-0.036,0.07 TiRex,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.015,0.032 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.016,0.075 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.039,-0.005,0.082 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.039,0.007,0.081 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.04,-0.017,0.107 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.066,0.011,0.111 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.027,-0.008,0.062 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.079,0.016,0.137 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.095,0.035,0.159 +TiRex,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.066,0.011,0.111 TiRex,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.183,0.05,0.346 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.048,0.123 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.11,0.06,0.164 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.177,0.123,0.234 -TiRex,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.265,0.146,0.405 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.299,0.202,0.402 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.087,-0.002 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.023,-0.083,0.03 +FlowState,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.014,-0.075,0.035 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.058,0.037 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.034,0.067 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.026,-0.024,0.069 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.026,-0.019,0.075 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.027,-0.002,0.053 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.033,0.054 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.066,-0.001,0.128 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.053,0.009,0.096 +FlowState,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.172,0.041,0.345 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.735,0.971,0.072,0.028,0.113 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,0.971,0.098,0.035,0.154 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.21,0.371 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.034,-0.057,-0.013 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.018,-0.043,0.009 AutoETS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.009,-0.033,0.015 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.005,-0.039,0.055 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.026,-0.018,0.068 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.011,0.071 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.031,-0.008,0.074 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.032,-0.015,0.092 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.058,0.013,0.096 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.012,0.046 AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.071,0.011,0.13 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.087,0.03,0.153 +AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.058,0.013,0.096 AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.176,0.045,0.346 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,0.039,0.114 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.103,0.052,0.148 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.17,0.116,0.226 -AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.258,0.141,0.394 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.293,0.204,0.392 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.061,-0.102,-0.023 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.044,-0.108,0.018 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.081,0.015 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.021,-0.072,0.032 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.026,-0.073,0.018 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.006,-0.006,0.018 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.061,0.069 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.007,-0.046,0.067 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.007,-0.067,0.045 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.046,-0.014,0.098 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.033,-0.016,0.074 +LightGBM,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.155,0.037,0.315 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.053,-0.002,0.101 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.079,0.019,0.134 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.274,0.168,0.383 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.11,-0.026 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.113,0.008 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.041,-0.089,0.005 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.027,-0.074,0.024 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.077,0.01 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.006,-0.018,0.006 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.0,-0.064,0.059 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.001,-0.049,0.053 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.013,-0.07,0.037 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.02,0.092 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.028,-0.022,0.072 +CatBoost,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.15,0.029,0.312 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.047,-0.005,0.09 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.074,0.012,0.126 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.27,0.167,0.376 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.067,-0.122,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.091,-0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.041,-0.088,-0.007 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.027,-0.081,0.018 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.032,-0.08,0.008 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.006,-0.074,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.0,-0.063,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.001,-0.051,0.043 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.012,-0.056,0.029 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.735,0.041,-0.022,0.105 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.04,0.082 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.676,0.042,-0.021,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.058,-0.01,0.13 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.15,-0.005,0.332 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,0.009,0.085 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.074,0.016,0.131 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.143,0.095,0.2 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.235,0.11,0.382 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.182,0.363 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.068,-0.128,-0.032 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.051,-0.126,0.011 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.042,-0.12,0.016 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.028,-0.057,0.002 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.033,-0.101,0.015 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.007,-0.071,0.044 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.001,-0.056,0.047 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.001,-0.045,0.049 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.014,-0.071,0.035 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.04,-0.017,0.092 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.027,-0.031,0.078 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.016,0.093 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.017,0.131 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.149,0.004,0.327 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.046,-0.003,0.093 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.073,0.008,0.132 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.142,0.065,0.22 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.234,0.106,0.381 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.27,0.184,0.362 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.054,-0.09,-0.016 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.037,-0.07,-0.002 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.028,-0.066,0.008 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.014,-0.057,0.032 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.019,-0.048,0.011 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.007,-0.047,0.062 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.012,-0.039,0.065 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.012,-0.03,0.053 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.013,-0.036,0.066 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.053,-0.023,0.124 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.04,-0.009,0.087 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.16,0.012,0.339 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.059,0.011,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.086,0.019,0.144 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.194,0.368 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.113,-0.177,-0.051 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.095,-0.177,-0.014 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.086,-0.159,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.071,-0.147,0.001 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.076,-0.149,-0.011 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.049,-0.109,0.014 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.101,0.019 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.265,0.706,-0.043,-0.117,0.021 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.101,0.016 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.056,-0.141,0.022 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.014,-0.071,0.046 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.113,-0.021,0.272 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.006,-0.052,0.067 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.034,-0.001,0.075 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.239,0.127,0.358 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.097,-0.134,-0.06 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.08,-0.139,-0.014 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.071,-0.125,-0.011 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.056,-0.107,-0.009 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.061,-0.106,-0.013 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.034,-0.08,0.015 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.028,-0.078,0.022 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.09,0.038 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.027,-0.085,0.03 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.041,-0.095,0.009 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.049,0.067 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.047,0.067 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.03,0.098 AutoTheta,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.126,0.009,0.287 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.02,-0.036,0.072 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.048,-0.004,0.093 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.119,0.053,0.188 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.213,0.105,0.343 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.25,0.156,0.35 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.113,-0.177,-0.052 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.096,-0.177,-0.015 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.086,-0.159,-0.017 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.077,-0.15,-0.011 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.324,0.765,-0.043,-0.117,0.021 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.102,0.016 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.015,-0.072,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.017,-0.078,0.122 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.113,-0.022,0.272 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.006,-0.053,0.066 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.034,-0.001,0.074 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.106,0.015,0.205 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.202,0.083,0.337 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.239,0.127,0.357 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.133,-0.219,-0.067 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.237,-0.115,-0.203,-0.046 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.105,-0.189,-0.037 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.096,-0.181,-0.031 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.062,-0.149,0.01 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.06,-0.151,0.017 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.108,0.029 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.017,-0.139,0.072 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.098,-0.068,0.274 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.011,-0.112,0.063 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.017,-0.098,0.096 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.023,0.155 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.188,0.042,0.333 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.225,0.131,0.323 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.255,-0.571,-0.09 Drift,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.236,-0.554,-0.05 Drift,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.224,-0.528,-0.053 +Drift,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.208,-0.526,-0.043 Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.214,-0.529,-0.047 +Drift,LightGBM,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.183,-0.459,-0.038 +Drift,CatBoost,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.176,-0.453,-0.03 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.176,-0.496,0.005 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.175,-0.485,-0.004 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.191,-0.514,-0.012 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.128,-0.373,0.021 Drift,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.144,-0.403,-0.009 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.127,-0.373,0.021 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.108,-0.378,0.064 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.121,-0.412,0.04 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.089,-0.335,0.061 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.008,-0.301,0.168 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.1,0.022,0.18 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.142,-0.129,0.318 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.12,-0.172,-0.068 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.102,-0.156,-0.057 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.141,-0.051 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.118,0.029,0.265,-0.078,-0.127,-0.029 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.083,-0.129,-0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.056,-0.112,0.002 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.05,-0.099,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.05,-0.093,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.048,-0.103,0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.063,-0.113,-0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.006,-0.071,0.05 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.021,-0.077,0.035 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.006,-0.07,0.05 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.011,-0.068,0.101 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.108,-0.042,0.292 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.382,0.176,0.588,0.028,-0.011,0.071 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.039,0.16 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.197,0.072,0.344 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.234,0.137,0.333 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.152,-0.212,-0.091 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.134,-0.206,-0.068 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.124,-0.196,-0.064 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.176,0.029,0.353,-0.109,-0.182,-0.037 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.115,-0.174,-0.055 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.086,-0.155,-0.019 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.08,-0.144,-0.012 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.08,-0.151,-0.016 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.079,-0.152,-0.008 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.094,-0.169,-0.02 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.036,-0.081,0.001 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.05,-0.103,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.035,-0.08,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.017,-0.106,0.089 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.082,-0.065,0.251 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.618,0.412,0.824,-0.029,-0.077,0.011 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.075,0.002,0.145 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.174,0.063,0.305 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.212,0.107,0.323 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.352,-0.161 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.226,-0.297,-0.163 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.215,-0.305,-0.14 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.205,-0.291,-0.131 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.167,-0.25,-0.105 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.166,-0.282,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.135,-0.232,-0.055 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.119,-0.258,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.183,-0.023 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.008,-0.202,0.231 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.19,-0.041 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.081,-0.17,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.107,-0.039,0.286 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.148,0.059,0.245 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.394,-0.722,-0.204 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.372,-0.693,-0.187 -Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.36,-0.682,-0.171 -Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.349,-0.649,-0.164 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.307,-0.618,-0.124 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.305,-0.614,-0.118 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.271,-0.522,-0.118 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.252,-0.509,-0.09 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.231,-0.498,-0.044 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.111,-0.219,-0.023 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.245,-0.524,-0.077 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.21,-0.44,-0.067 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.119,-0.401,0.038 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.047,-0.198,0.201 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.462,-0.703,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.44,-0.659,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.427,-0.672,-0.253 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.591,-0.265 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.414,-0.645,-0.256 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.378,-0.62,-0.202 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.371,-0.603,-0.2 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.371,-0.571,-0.222 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.369,-0.566,-0.225 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.388,-0.582,-0.241 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.314,-0.556,-0.145 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.333,-0.538,-0.184 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.314,-0.555,-0.145 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.291,-0.476,-0.15 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.165,-0.467,0.114 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.306,-0.5,-0.158 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.269,-0.477,-0.12 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.174,-0.324,-0.063 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.049,-0.251,0.166 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv index 0767415a55a4e445c962ba03d9cce010f6e17aa2..b9b51108446698832e7de454ead8ea5f9577e0c4 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.009,-0.018,0.04 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.027,-0.014,0.065 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.039,-0.007,0.088 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.048,0.015,0.082 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.07,0.036,0.102 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.113,0.036,0.23 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.096,0.028,0.159 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.763,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.149 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.096,0.026,0.159 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.093,0.051,0.143 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.096,0.034,0.161 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.131,0.076,0.187 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.126,0.071,0.172 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.167,0.11,0.23 Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.27,0.122,0.415 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.207,0.298 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.341,0.235,0.459 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.237,0.17,0.311 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.249,0.408 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.01,-0.042,0.018 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.018,-0.02,0.052 +TiRex,FlowState,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.03,-0.014,0.08 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.039,0.003,0.07 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.061,0.026,0.097 TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.104,0.026,0.221 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.088,0.031,0.141 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.088,0.04,0.138 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.087,0.03,0.14 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.085,0.047,0.123 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.087,0.031,0.154 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.123,0.074,0.174 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.118,0.069,0.161 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.159,0.102,0.229 TiRex,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.263,0.132,0.401 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.193,0.298 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.234,0.447 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.23,0.158,0.309 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.319,0.231,0.411 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.028,-0.07,0.014 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.018,-0.055,0.02 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.412,0.234,0.647,0.012,-0.02,0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.007,0.046 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,0.004,0.088 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.088,0.015,0.204 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.071,0.018,0.123 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.072,0.031,0.118 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.071,0.017,0.123 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.068,0.028,0.108 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.037,0.121 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.107,0.058,0.153 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.102,0.07,0.134 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.144,0.087,0.215 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.25,0.118,0.4 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.232,0.176,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.219,0.449 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.216,0.141,0.295 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.306,0.225,0.392 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.041,-0.096,0.007 +FlowState,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.031,-0.087,0.014 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.766,-0.012,-0.055,0.019 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.009,-0.038,0.05 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.032,-0.018,0.082 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.076,-0.016,0.209 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.059,-0.01,0.123 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.559,0.912,0.057,0.011,0.098 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.059,0.021,0.095 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.559,0.912,0.096,0.031,0.152 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.09,0.049,0.13 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.133,0.081,0.199 +FlowState,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.24,0.107,0.389 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.206,0.136,0.275 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.298,0.225,0.369 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.05,-0.089,-0.015 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.04,-0.076,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.022,-0.049,0.007 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.009,-0.052,0.036 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.023,-0.014,0.061 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.068,-0.009,0.195 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.051,-0.019,0.114 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.048,0.004,0.089 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.05,0.003,0.108 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.088,0.027,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.082,0.04,0.122 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.125,0.068,0.196 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.233,0.088,0.394 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.198,0.13,0.276 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.214,0.373 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.075,-0.114,-0.038 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.065,-0.107,-0.027 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.096,-0.004 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.033,-0.089,0.017 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.023,-0.065,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.046,-0.046,0.181 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.676,0.029,-0.036,0.091 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.029,-0.028,0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.676,0.028,-0.037,0.091 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.026,-0.013,0.066 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.028,-0.029,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.066,0.01,0.122 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.061,0.0,0.111 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.105,0.042,0.176 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.215,0.056,0.38 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.197,0.153,0.247 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.292,0.176,0.424 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.18,0.113,0.255 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.275,0.193,0.356 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.127,-0.299,-0.038 AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.116,-0.284,-0.026 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.096,-0.256,-0.016 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.083,-0.264,0.016 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.073,-0.242,0.009 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.048,-0.22,0.044 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.214,0.088 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.018,-0.199,0.087 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.215,0.088 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.022,-0.206,0.069 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.198,0.09 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.021,-0.153,0.117 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.015,-0.155,0.106 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.062,-0.114,0.169 AutoETS,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.177,-0.054,0.366 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.158,0.016,0.246 -AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.258,0.073,0.414 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.14,-0.035,0.256 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.239,0.062,0.359 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.107,-0.189,-0.028 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.096,-0.164,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.077,-0.141,-0.018 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.324,0.765,-0.03,-0.101,0.035 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.018,-0.097,0.176 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.106,-0.188,-0.027 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.096,-0.163,-0.031 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.076,-0.141,-0.017 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.063,-0.14,0.01 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.053,-0.129,0.019 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.324,0.765,-0.029,-0.1,0.035 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.018,-0.097,0.177 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.001,-0.082,0.091 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.735,-0.003,-0.058,0.054 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.063,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.039,0.004,0.077 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.026,0.095 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.192,0.063,0.332 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.092,0.263 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.271,0.173,0.387 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.253,0.145,0.364 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.237,-0.107,-0.175,-0.052 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.097,-0.16,-0.042 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.077,-0.134,-0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.03,-0.095,0.028 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.017,-0.095,0.166 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.001,-0.1,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.082,0.057 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.07,0.066 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.038,-0.052,0.104 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.019,0.075 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.192,0.04,0.354 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.173,0.118,0.227 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.271,0.152,0.396 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.253,0.171,0.336 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.735,-0.003,-0.058,0.055 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.0,-0.063,0.062 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.039,0.004,0.078 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.026,0.096 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.079,-0.001,0.183 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.193,0.063,0.333 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.156,0.065,0.256 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.253,0.145,0.365 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.103,-0.166,-0.054 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.093,-0.14,-0.05 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.073,-0.121,-0.029 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.235,0.088,0.441,-0.06,-0.108,-0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.05,-0.097,-0.004 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.026,-0.071,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.021,-0.074,0.171 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.265,0.706,0.003,-0.057,0.054 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.061,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.265,0.706,0.003,-0.058,0.055 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.003,-0.054,0.058 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.559,0.353,0.765,0.042,0.006,0.081 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.036,-0.02,0.092 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.081,0.033,0.146 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.195,0.05,0.353 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.176,0.114,0.235 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.273,0.173,0.401 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.158,0.098,0.229 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.255,0.166,0.347 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.106,-0.192,-0.035 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.096,-0.182,-0.032 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.138,-0.038 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.063,-0.105,-0.021 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.053,-0.121,-0.003 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.029,-0.086,0.028 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.019,-0.099,0.165 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.065,0.059 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.07,0.066 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.0,-0.066,0.059 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.003,-0.061,0.051 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.039,-0.039,0.105 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.033,-0.028,0.089 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.079,0.011,0.17 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.193,0.041,0.366 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.174,0.091,0.254 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.272,0.149,0.408 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.156,0.086,0.238 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.254,0.174,0.333 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.151,-0.23,-0.082 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.14,-0.211,-0.08 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.12,-0.181,-0.062 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.235,0.088,0.441,-0.106,-0.179,-0.032 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.096,-0.167,-0.028 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.071,-0.14,-0.01 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.021,-0.133,0.133 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.04,-0.083,-0.004 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.116,0.049 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.041,-0.084,-0.004 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.441,0.235,0.647,-0.043,-0.088,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.041,-0.118,0.038 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.006,-0.057,0.049 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.041,-0.023,0.122 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.16,0.013,0.314 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.14,0.073,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.242,0.146,0.359 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.122,0.048,0.207 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.223,0.125,0.328 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.144,-0.208,-0.076 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.133,-0.193,-0.074 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.113,-0.155,-0.075 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.099,-0.15,-0.052 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.089,-0.14,-0.042 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.065,-0.125,-0.0 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.015,-0.118,0.134 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.034,-0.105,0.025 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.081,0.019 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.034,-0.106,0.025 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.037,-0.101,0.019 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.035,-0.098,0.027 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.006,-0.052,0.054 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,DeepAR,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.047,-0.02,0.126 AutoTheta,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.165,0.024,0.317 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.145,0.082,0.211 -AutoTheta,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.246,0.148,0.371 +AutoTheta,PatchTST,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.127,0.046,0.207 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.228,0.148,0.317 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.201,-0.299,-0.124 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.19,-0.297,-0.114 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.168,-0.274,-0.096 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.154,-0.248,-0.088 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.143,-0.243,-0.073 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.117,-0.213,-0.043 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.066,-0.204,0.103 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.086,-0.225,0.001 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.171,-0.034 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.086,-0.204,-0.011 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.043,-0.139,0.023 +DeepAR,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.049,-0.144,0.019 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Drift,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.124,-0.057,0.295 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.853,0.676,1.0,0.084,0.041,0.122 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.19,0.115,0.273 Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.37,-0.711,-0.139 Drift,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.357,-0.671,-0.152 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.333,-0.665,-0.134 +Drift,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.316,-0.636,-0.12 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.304,-0.65,-0.096 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.275,-0.613,-0.059 Drift,AutoETS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.216,-0.578,0.052 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.238,-0.497,-0.067 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.237,-0.547,-0.042 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.239,-0.499,-0.067 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.242,-0.546,-0.053 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.239,-0.577,-0.043 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.19,-0.458,-0.013 Drift,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.197,-0.465,-0.024 +Drift,DeepAR,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.141,-0.419,0.054 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.024,-0.32,0.166 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.098,0.021,0.176 +Drift,PatchTST,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.046,-0.333,0.145 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.075,-0.217,0.272 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.339,-0.424,-0.261 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.326,-0.426,-0.24 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.302,-0.411,-0.214 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.245,-0.328,-0.181 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.188,-0.327,-0.016 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.21,-0.357,-0.102 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.209,-0.293,-0.134 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.213,-0.307,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.21,-0.341,-0.1 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.163,-0.262,-0.079 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.17,-0.268,-0.09 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.023,-0.198,0.242 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.118,-0.026,0.284 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.097,-0.0,0.199 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.518,-0.849,-0.307 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.808,-0.305 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.477,-0.814,-0.281 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.413,-0.737,-0.214 -Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.347,-0.706,-0.079 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.372,-0.632,-0.209 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.371,-0.656,-0.179 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.376,-0.669,-0.209 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.373,-0.688,-0.175 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.319,-0.559,-0.171 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.589,-0.174 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.108,-0.214,-0.022 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.134,-0.396,0.025 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.794,-0.025,-0.289,0.149 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.31,-0.451,-0.205 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.298,-0.447,-0.187 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.275,-0.418,-0.165 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.259,-0.379,-0.157 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.248,-0.38,-0.149 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.219,-0.342,-0.127 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.344,0.034 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.185,-0.345,-0.07 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.188,-0.298,-0.109 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.185,-0.312,-0.093 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.138,-0.261,-0.05 +PatchTST,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.145,-0.261,-0.048 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.147,0.0,0.324,-0.091,-0.14,-0.043 +PatchTST,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.044,-0.169,0.25 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.116,0.036,0.199 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.689,-0.331 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.468,-0.697,-0.301 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.441,-0.645,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.424,-0.585,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.411,-0.594,-0.272 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.378,-0.553,-0.239 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.315,-0.56,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.339,-0.573,-0.17 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.338,-0.506,-0.207 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.339,-0.574,-0.17 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.343,-0.531,-0.199 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.34,-0.5,-0.211 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.287,-0.488,-0.143 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.295,-0.464,-0.174 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.234,-0.376,-0.13 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.081,-0.374,0.178 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.107,-0.248,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.412,0.206,0.647,0.024,-0.175,0.224 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.131,-0.248,-0.038 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv index bfb56577d9ad1c587acf7f6cf2eecbdcd9ff5b1a..b01a8be38fbc2e0941b882b827b477f3ee8143fb 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.025,-0.112,0.041 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.016,-0.075,0.03 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.025,-0.112,0.041 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.018,-0.018,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.016,-0.101,0.105 +TiRex,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.01,-0.105,0.058 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.016,-0.126,0.065 TiRex,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.019,-0.038,0.072 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.071,0.016,0.12 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.071,0.017,0.119 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.018,-0.076,0.095 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.106,0.053,0.159 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.074,-0.037,0.157 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.127,0.058,0.195 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.087,-0.022,0.168 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.106,0.053,0.159 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.081,-0.052,0.175 TiRex,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.205,0.015,0.38 -TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.099,0.427 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.136,0.275 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.301,0.182,0.409 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.024,-0.042,0.101 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.009,-0.05,0.086 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.042,-0.027,0.126 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.04,-0.018,0.102 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.042,0.01,0.084 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.093,0.016,0.162 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.042,0.002,0.075 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.128,0.047,0.207 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.148,0.066,0.23 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.103,0.036,0.164 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.074,0.398 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.283,0.133,0.437 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.228,0.145,0.31 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.224,0.401 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.016,-0.031,0.069 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.009,-0.095,0.047 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.009,-0.095,0.047 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.033,-0.017,0.094 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.032,-0.07,0.112 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.006,-0.099,0.086 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.0,-0.092,0.067 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.011,0.074 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.002,0.159 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.085,0.003,0.159 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.033,-0.056,0.101 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.12,0.04,0.2 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.089,-0.032,0.18 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.141,0.054,0.225 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.102,-0.022,0.2 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.12,0.04,0.2 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.095,-0.037,0.184 Chronos-2,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.218,0.025,0.397 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.277,0.123,0.428 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.222,0.148,0.287 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.203,0.41 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.024,-0.042,0.101 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.009,-0.05,0.086 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.042,-0.027,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.015,-0.031,0.062 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.008,-0.042,0.056 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.042,0.01,0.084 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.093,0.017,0.162 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.042,0.002,0.075 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.097,0.031,0.162 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.148,0.066,0.23 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.109,0.038,0.18 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.128,0.047,0.207 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.103,0.036,0.164 +Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.074,0.398 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.318,0.224,0.401 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.018,-0.052,0.018 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.043,-0.145,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.034,-0.104,0.017 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.043,-0.145,0.026 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.134,0.098 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.471,0.265,0.706,-0.028,-0.132,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.035,-0.161,0.054 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.066,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.054,-0.015,0.12 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.054,-0.014,0.119 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.0,-0.106,0.079 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.09,0.032,0.151 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.057,-0.065,0.15 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.111,0.034,0.186 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.071,-0.045,0.157 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.09,0.032,0.151 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.064,-0.08,0.169 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.191,-0.023,0.382 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.252,0.061,0.423 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.131,0.257 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.288,0.174,0.389 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.017,-0.117,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.042,-0.113,0.018 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.033,-0.126,0.065 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.108,0.118 +FlowState,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.01,-0.062,0.095 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.006,-0.094,0.09 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.015,-0.066,0.03 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.735,0.028,-0.044,0.117 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.006,-0.086,0.056 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.036,0.103 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.08,-0.013,0.16 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.027,-0.026,0.076 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.083,0.018,0.15 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.136,0.035,0.236 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.096,0.036,0.161 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.912,0.115,0.028,0.205 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.09,0.004,0.169 +FlowState,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.213,0.055,0.39 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.308,0.201,0.401 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.016,-0.07,0.112 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.0,-0.072,0.084 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.008,-0.059,0.04 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.034,-0.057,0.139 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.006,-0.059,0.079 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.091,0.08 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.056,-0.064,0.153 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.079,0.066 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.091,-0.037,0.205 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.113,-0.016,0.222 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.065,-0.011,0.131 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.192,0.03,0.374 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.253,0.103,0.41 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.196,0.1,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.188,0.371 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.035,-0.03,0.093 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,-0.017,0.172 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.034,-0.029,0.087 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.089,0.004,0.173 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.141,0.03,0.242 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.102,0.014,0.198 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.121,0.014,0.22 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.095,0.032,0.155 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.218,0.063,0.397 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.312,0.224,0.392 AutoETS,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.019,-0.078,0.036 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.044,-0.092,-0.01 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.08,0.011 +AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.044,-0.092,-0.01 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.062,0.062 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.087,0.083 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.114,0.035 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.036,-0.103,0.03 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.053,-0.018,0.117 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.053,-0.019,0.117 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.079,0.056 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.089,0.022,0.15 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.03,0.132 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.11,0.04,0.175 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.07,-0.022,0.155 +AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.089,0.022,0.15 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,-0.033,0.131 AutoETS,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.19,0.012,0.377 -AutoETS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.251,0.094,0.41 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.194,0.124,0.256 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.198,0.376 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.076,-0.136,-0.016 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.076,-0.135,-0.018 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.093,-0.189,-0.003 Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.103,-0.193,-0.017 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.189,-0.002 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.057,-0.136,0.015 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.059,-0.181,0.06 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.056,-0.132,0.018 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.057,-0.135,0.014 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.087,-0.19,0.013 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.208,0.016 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.056,-0.132,0.019 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.057,-0.158,0.035 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.057,-0.157,0.034 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.004,-0.108,0.107 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.061,0.016,0.113 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.097,0.112 Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.038,-0.019,0.086 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.06,0.016,0.112 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.01,-0.111,0.11 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.145,-0.034,0.312 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.051,0.359 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.149,0.044,0.234 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.247,0.11,0.364 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.011,-0.112,0.111 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.145,-0.034,0.313 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.248,0.11,0.365 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.018,-0.105,0.071 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.043,-0.081,-0.002 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.034,-0.112,0.053 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.043,-0.081,-0.002 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.0,-0.086,0.096 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.071,0.073 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.028,-0.082,0.025 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.035,-0.095,0.028 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.059,0.073 AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.054,-0.036,0.136 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.09,-0.01,0.191 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.018,0.137 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,0.002,0.22 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.071,-0.008,0.155 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.09,-0.01,0.191 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.064,-0.025,0.147 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.191,0.029,0.372 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.252,0.083,0.423 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.195,0.085,0.298 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.288,0.178,0.39 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.119,-0.19,-0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.147,-0.26,-0.049 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.137,-0.25,-0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.099,-0.177,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.1,-0.257,0.036 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.098,-0.177,-0.022 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.039,-0.094,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.099,-0.236,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.382,0.205,0.588,0.023,-0.024,0.076 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.029,-0.171,0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.111,-0.104,0.312 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.178,-0.02,0.361 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.115,0.028,0.191 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.218,0.087,0.337 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.08,-0.186,0.036 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.097,-0.22,0.031 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.107,-0.193,-0.032 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.061,-0.176,0.061 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.091,-0.177,-0.018 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.098,-0.21,-0.004 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.06,-0.152,0.029 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.004,-0.119,0.098 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.159,0.018 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.045,0.154 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.014,-0.011,0.042 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.034,-0.064,0.131 +CatBoost,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.007,-0.077,0.077 +CatBoost,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.142,-0.018,0.326 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.245,0.111,0.353 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.146,-0.243,-0.062 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.174,-0.299,-0.07 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.164,-0.291,-0.058 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.174,-0.299,-0.07 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.125,-0.228,-0.035 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.127,-0.285,0.015 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.157,-0.308,-0.036 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.164,-0.319,-0.031 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.124,-0.212,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.064,-0.127,-0.016 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.064,-0.127,-0.016 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.281,-0.002 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.618,0.412,0.795,-0.024,-0.082,0.023 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.182,0.043 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.046,-0.171,0.061 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.618,0.412,0.795,-0.024,-0.082,0.023 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.053,-0.183,0.053 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.09,-0.107,0.279 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.158,-0.004,0.315 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.002,0.179 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.199,0.073,0.326 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.096,-0.203,0.021 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.113,-0.249,0.022 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.123,-0.22,-0.04 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.076,-0.186,0.043 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.107,-0.192,-0.038 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.114,-0.247,-0.014 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.075,-0.184,0.021 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.126,0.088 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.076,-0.183,0.008 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.014,-0.044,0.01 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.044,-0.065,0.146 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.021,-0.072,0.117 +LightGBM,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.007,-0.112,0.071 +LightGBM,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.129,-0.047,0.32 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.234,0.091,0.347 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.119,-0.19,-0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.137,-0.25,-0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.146,-0.26,-0.049 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.099,-0.177,-0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.294,0.088,0.529,-0.13,-0.258,-0.028 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.137,-0.282,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.098,-0.177,-0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.04,-0.094,0.018 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.099,-0.236,0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.036,-0.15,0.06 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.382,0.205,0.588,0.023,-0.024,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.021,-0.132,0.067 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.941,-0.029,-0.171,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.111,-0.104,0.312 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.218,0.087,0.337 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.088,-0.212,0.049 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.115,-0.197,-0.037 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.105,-0.226,0.035 +AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.115,-0.197,-0.037 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.068,-0.203,0.074 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.07,-0.151,0.011 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.098,-0.203,-0.004 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.106,-0.184,-0.033 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.151,0.032 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.01,-0.124,0.1 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.011,-0.124,0.101 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.068,-0.173,0.024 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.028,-0.085,0.146 +AutoTheta,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.007,-0.084,0.072 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.051,-0.056,0.155 +AutoTheta,LightGBM,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.007,-0.076,0.1 +AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.059,0.529,0.028,-0.085,0.146 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoTheta,Drift,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.136,0.003,0.317 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.201,0.065,0.356 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.14,0.037,0.255 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.24,0.146,0.322 Drift,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.258,-0.613,-0.015 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.662,-0.08 Drift,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.279,-0.657,-0.025 +Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.662,-0.08 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.236,-0.619,0.023 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.238,-0.598,-0.03 +Drift,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.271,-0.639,-0.058 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.279,-0.659,-0.068 Drift,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.235,-0.606,-0.012 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.169,-0.454,0.033 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.169,-0.456,0.033 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.236,-0.593,-0.03 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.125,-0.453,0.094 +Drift,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.165,-0.483,0.018 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.099,-0.387,0.097 +Drift,LightGBM,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.149,-0.47,0.045 +Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.125,-0.453,0.094 Drift,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.157,-0.465,-0.003 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.076,-0.02,0.179 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.005,-0.347,0.218 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.12,-0.22,0.302 -Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.746,-0.11 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.395,-0.775,-0.154 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.383,-0.747,-0.141 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.337,-0.733,-0.065 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.339,-0.696,-0.115 -Naive,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.336,-0.695,-0.104 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.559,-0.054 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.337,-0.733,-0.091 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.217,-0.564,0.02 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.188,-0.46,0.004 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.252,-0.553,-0.069 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.082,-0.218,0.019 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.077,-0.413,0.123 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.048,-0.261,0.223 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.38,-0.158 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.296,-0.449,-0.17 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.285,-0.403,-0.174 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.346,-0.151 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.244,-0.411,-0.111 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.241,-0.343,-0.141 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.175,-0.305,-0.046 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.242,-0.425,-0.093 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.13,-0.236,-0.029 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.218,-0.002 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.163,-0.342,-0.038 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.005,-0.279,0.257 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.071,-0.14,0.292 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.116,0.004,0.214 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.43,-0.693,-0.222 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.669,-0.289 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.453,-0.695,-0.255 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.466,-0.669,-0.289 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.405,-0.637,-0.211 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.591,-0.232 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.444,-0.67,-0.252 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.454,-0.646,-0.288 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.403,-0.603,-0.246 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.329,-0.572,-0.124 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.329,-0.575,-0.123 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.405,-0.639,-0.217 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.278,-0.508,-0.095 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.324,-0.545,-0.125 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.248,-0.484,-0.078 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.305,-0.531,-0.1 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.278,-0.508,-0.095 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.315,-0.475,-0.171 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.136,-0.432,0.18 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.051,-0.288,0.207 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.131,-0.272,-0.004 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv index 9fd9f09950c2c7d281c14073e95bf6ab2bf58a10..657c7f6a3cbcac22ab2020496f37754173198955 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_monthly_plus/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.049,0.033 +TiRex,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.001,-0.089,0.064 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.005,-0.092,0.065 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.025,-0.013,0.059 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.023,-0.072,0.097 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.042,-0.043,0.121 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.072,0.024,0.114 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.072,0.024,0.113 TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.067,0.006,0.121 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.097,0.05,0.145 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.127,0.062,0.194 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.096,0.004,0.19 TiRex,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.157,0.032,0.256 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.22,0.146,0.292 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.251,0.167,0.338 TiRex,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.321,0.158,0.466 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.266,0.192,0.336 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.233,0.457 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.25,0.493 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.034,0.046 Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.008,-0.084,0.073 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.003,-0.08,0.066 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.032,-0.002,0.067 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.031,-0.057,0.101 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.049,-0.039,0.124 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.079,0.013,0.143 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.012,0.142 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,0.025,0.113 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.103,0.039,0.168 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.134,0.06,0.206 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.102,0.007,0.196 Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.163,0.042,0.254 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.226,0.153,0.292 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.256,0.17,0.342 Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.143,0.481 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.271,0.208,0.332 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.353,0.247,0.456 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.378,0.248,0.505 +FlowState,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.001,-0.068,0.082 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.008,-0.079,0.078 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.006,-0.079,0.056 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.794,0.024,-0.05,0.115 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.014,0.089 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.912,0.071,-0.019,0.154 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.066,0.004,0.127 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.912,0.096,0.017,0.178 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.127,0.03,0.223 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.095,0.039,0.163 +FlowState,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.157,0.076,0.228 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.22,0.149,0.295 +FlowState,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.25,0.173,0.325 +FlowState,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.32,0.183,0.469 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.348,0.238,0.44 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.005,-0.07,0.084 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.003,-0.07,0.074 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.006,-0.059,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.03,-0.048,0.117 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.046,-0.015,0.109 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.076,-0.012,0.153 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.824,0.588,0.941,0.071,0.009,0.125 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.101,0.009,0.188 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.131,0.03,0.22 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.1,0.022,0.176 +TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.161,0.088,0.228 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.824,0.588,0.941,0.224,0.134,0.303 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.254,0.168,0.337 +TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.324,0.17,0.477 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.351,0.26,0.438 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.026,-0.063,0.013 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.033,-0.072,0.002 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.206,0.647,-0.025,-0.13,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.031,-0.133,0.046 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.002,-0.108,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.017,-0.083,0.093 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.048,-0.014,0.112 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.048,-0.014,0.111 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.043,-0.024,0.097 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.073,0.017,0.133 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.105,0.031,0.181 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.072,-0.031,0.164 TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.135,-0.004,0.235 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.2,0.122,0.276 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.232,0.143,0.32 TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.303,0.116,0.462 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.189,0.313 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.332,0.221,0.436 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.358,0.218,0.492 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.108,0.067 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.032,-0.112,0.054 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.002,-0.088,0.097 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.019,-0.046,0.083 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,-0.051,0.133 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.044,-0.032,0.109 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.075,-0.031,0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.106,-0.004,0.203 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.074,-0.011,0.151 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.137,0.063,0.203 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.304,0.145,0.456 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.248,0.165,0.338 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.234,0.423 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.359,0.234,0.484 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.044,-0.138,0.041 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.051,-0.141,0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.098,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.049,-0.122,0.015 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.017,-0.102,0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.019,-0.09,0.044 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.066,0.119 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.066,0.118 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.026,-0.041,0.082 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.057,-0.038,0.142 Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.089,-0.017,0.186 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.056,0.018,0.09 Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.12,0.056,0.188 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.186,0.104,0.262 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.218,0.15,0.278 Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.291,0.134,0.447 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.234,0.133,0.333 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.228,0.405 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.214,0.48 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.078,-0.129,-0.025 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.166,-0.013 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.05,-0.126,0.014 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.154,0.048 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.135,0.062 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.077,-0.128,-0.025 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.165,-0.012 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.294,0.088,0.529,-0.076,-0.182,0.018 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.082,-0.181,0.012 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.05,-0.125,0.013 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.134,0.062 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.006,-0.092,0.065 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.027,-0.031,0.073 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.06,0.011,0.115 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.026,-0.082,0.134 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.092,-0.025,0.197 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.268,0.112,0.402 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.209,0.113,0.289 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.298,0.157,0.418 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.219,0.432 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.005,-0.092,0.066 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.882,0.027,-0.031,0.074 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.06,0.01,0.117 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.026,-0.083,0.134 +Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.092,-0.026,0.198 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.824,0.646,0.943,0.16,0.068,0.247 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.193,0.094,0.293 +Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.268,0.111,0.404 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.298,0.157,0.419 AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.072,-0.137,-0.007 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.127,-0.026 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.071,-0.145,-0.004 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.059,0.412,-0.077,-0.143,-0.009 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.045,-0.107,0.024 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.046,-0.123,0.031 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.027,-0.089,0.039 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.006,-0.069,0.084 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.005,-0.071,0.085 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.032,-0.045,0.099 AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.018,0.148 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.031,-0.058,0.119 AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.097,-0.001,0.182 +AutoETS,DeepAR,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.165,0.096,0.231 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.117,0.28 AutoETS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.272,0.096,0.444 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.214,0.135,0.291 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.302,0.195,0.407 -AutoETS,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.329,0.189,0.468 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.107,-0.17,-0.053 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.115,-0.201,-0.04 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.294,0.088,0.529,-0.106,-0.216,-0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.112,-0.232,-0.009 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.079,-0.154,-0.017 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.081,-0.203,0.03 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.166,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.027,-0.078,0.03 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.5,-0.028,-0.08,0.03 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.033,-0.11,0.043 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.441,0.235,0.647,0.034,-0.012,0.086 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.001,-0.124,0.116 Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.067,-0.065,0.176 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.137,0.073,0.213 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.171,0.079,0.268 Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.074,0.409 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.188,0.105,0.254 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.279,0.156,0.396 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.307,0.183,0.438 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.146,-0.241,-0.066 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.154,-0.26,-0.064 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.145,-0.287,-0.031 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.151,-0.283,-0.031 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.117,-0.221,-0.032 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.119,-0.255,0.004 Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.098,-0.228,0.017 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.063,-0.13,-0.011 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.064,-0.133,-0.01 Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.069,-0.173,0.018 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.559,0.353,0.765,-0.035,-0.094,0.012 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.036,-0.188,0.094 Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.087,0.145 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.107,0.024,0.188 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.142,0.042,0.254 Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.221,0.051,0.376 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.159,0.071,0.237 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.253,0.126,0.377 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.282,0.165,0.399 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.106,-0.235,-0.004 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.114,-0.244,-0.007 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.105,-0.195,-0.04 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.111,-0.213,-0.023 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.078,-0.197,0.03 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.08,-0.177,0.01 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.059,-0.099,-0.019 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.026,-0.154,0.076 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.027,-0.154,0.077 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.032,-0.135,0.055 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.001,-0.131,0.111 AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.035,-0.104,0.158 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.068,-0.02,0.16 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.138,0.031,0.241 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,0.098,0.244 AutoARIMA,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.249,0.079,0.417 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.188,0.058,0.315 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.279,0.174,0.381 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.307,0.155,0.461 AutoTheta,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.187,-0.343,-0.033 AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.195,-0.34,-0.044 +AutoTheta,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.186,-0.295,-0.083 +AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.192,-0.295,-0.096 AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.157,-0.307,0.004 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.159,-0.254,-0.067 AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.137,-0.231,-0.059 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.101,-0.246,0.024 +AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.102,-0.248,0.025 AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.107,-0.222,0.001 AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.072,-0.214,0.061 AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.035,-0.169,0.08 AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.073,-0.191,0.019 AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,DeepAR,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.075,-0.03,0.175 +AutoTheta,PatchTST,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.111,0.02,0.191 AutoTheta,Drift,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.194,0.039,0.357 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.129,0.019,0.249 AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.227,0.144,0.299 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.257,0.129,0.393 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.283,-0.413,-0.171 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.292,-0.413,-0.181 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.282,-0.418,-0.176 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.059,0.412,-0.289,-0.436,-0.154 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.251,-0.381,-0.139 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.229,-0.356,-0.116 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.057,0.354,-0.191,-0.328,-0.073 +DeepAR,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.197,-0.301,-0.107 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.159,-0.27,-0.079 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.119,-0.232,-0.025 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.16,-0.318,-0.032 +DeepAR,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.081,-0.212,0.029 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.676,0.471,0.882,0.039,-0.029,0.109 +DeepAR,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.128,-0.081,0.329 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.164,0.047,0.283 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.335,-0.51,-0.201 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.345,-0.519,-0.205 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.482,-0.21 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.341,-0.508,-0.202 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.301,-0.47,-0.167 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.279,-0.385,-0.177 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.239,-0.414,-0.104 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.246,-0.388,-0.132 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.206,-0.367,-0.086 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.165,-0.34,-0.044 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.322,-0.108 +PatchTST,AutoTheta,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.125,-0.236,-0.02 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.324,0.118,0.529,-0.041,-0.122,0.028 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.093,-0.126,0.306 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.13,0.019,0.233 Drift,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.472,-0.873,-0.188 Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.483,-0.929,-0.166 +Drift,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.47,-0.883,-0.224 +Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.479,-0.913,-0.205 Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.435,-0.859,-0.131 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.437,-0.838,-0.17 Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.41,-0.81,-0.155 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.366,-0.673,-0.126 +Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.366,-0.677,-0.125 Drift,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.373,-0.799,-0.106 Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.329,-0.691,-0.079 Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.284,-0.602,-0.053 Drift,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.331,-0.715,-0.086 Drift,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.24,-0.555,-0.041 +Drift,DeepAR,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.147,-0.49,0.075 +Drift,PatchTST,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.102,-0.442,0.112 Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.08,-0.452,0.16 Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.041,-0.302,0.25 -Drift,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,-0.013,0.174 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.363,-0.507,-0.238 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.373,-0.497,-0.263 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.328,-0.457,-0.233 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.331,-0.511,-0.197 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.306,-0.499,-0.154 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.265,-0.406,-0.127 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.272,-0.41,-0.156 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.231,-0.341,-0.117 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.189,-0.311,-0.077 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.232,-0.461,-0.061 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.148,-0.331,-0.02 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.074,-0.19,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.112,-0.011,0.234 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.147,-0.031,0.333 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.842,-0.303 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.546,-0.839,-0.328 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.533,-0.786,-0.313 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.542,-0.779,-0.351 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.496,-0.772,-0.283 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.733,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.47,-0.681,-0.296 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.424,-0.718,-0.186 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.425,-0.721,-0.187 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.432,-0.685,-0.243 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.386,-0.655,-0.185 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.339,-0.606,-0.144 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.388,-0.617,-0.211 Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.293,-0.426,-0.168 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.196,-0.396,-0.049 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.15,-0.304,-0.019 Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.333,0.232 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.126,-0.306,0.01 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.412,0.206,0.647,0.039,-0.185,0.265 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.597,-0.971,-0.333 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.608,-1.02,-0.329 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.556,-0.967,-0.279 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.559,-0.938,-0.306 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.923,-0.273 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.482,-0.759,-0.28 -Naive,AutoETS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.49,-0.879,-0.233 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.442,-0.779,-0.224 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.393,-0.663,-0.198 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.444,-0.855,-0.183 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.346,-0.648,-0.148 -Naive,Drift,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.211,0.013 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.172,-0.5,0.03 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.794,-0.04,-0.36,0.156 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 1b091ba8412b3034080cdcb255a392ddb58d7981..af6688c91d6f6f1ece738e783fcef1b5aedc054c 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.85714285714286,36.605677387649834,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,87.05357142857144,34.31440963476917,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,79.61309523809524,33.08143144251301,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,76.9345238095238,32.09191406128986,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.45238095238095,30.491645603453122,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,62.500000000000014,26.492402114565415,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,60.5654761904762,27.748908020810514,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,56.8452380952381,25.64075867979405,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,31.99404761904762,4.953841003733173,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoARIMA,31.99404761904762,6.157935798308323,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,31.250000000000007,5.870699140858715,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,22.172619047619047,-9.418472845195168,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,21.875,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.94047619047619,-29.01179677799075,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,5.9523809523809526,-38.47295911331854,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,92.5,36.60567701819309,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,87.5,34.33193126564797,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,81.25,33.08143140787951,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,78.33333333333333,32.091914021126556,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,69.47916666666667,30.491645543587975,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +FlowState,67.91666666666667,25.746635712407915,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,62.39583333333334,26.492402046161224,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,60.0,27.748907584948345,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TFT,59.374999999999986,27.53144334233102,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,57.604166666666664,26.772635713296424,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,57.49999999999999,25.556775293313972,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,49.16666666666666,21.287573524478255,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,48.85416666666666,22.20671232134833,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +LightGBM,37.5,15.414025929198116,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,31.25,7.513921637274034,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoARIMA,27.500000000000004,7.687751653596642,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,25.624999999999996,5.8706991513412525,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,18.854166666666668,-9.418472917749977,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Seasonal Naive,17.812499999999996,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +Naive,15.0,-29.011796894601318,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,4.583333333333333,-38.472959211654675,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 524549b227554ea385c289e0aac448fe4817ffcc..d1b4d4f12fea5d23766ab6f8422a81b31953e79a 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.04761904761905,56.38130532139749,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,87.64880952380955,54.02589153177224,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.69642857142856,53.090548134983905,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,80.50595238095238,52.71089296427414,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.83333333333333,50.17769224138213,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,59.52380952380951,45.24211890278741,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,59.375,46.75728702656884,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.22619047619049,46.36871724725341,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,35.56547619047619,23.569195904321717,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -Stat. Ensemble,32.291666666666664,12.2011691174994,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,24.404761904761905,-8.679221660647052,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,23.958333333333336,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,23.363095238095237,-57.991658816184334,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Naive,14.583333333333332,-93.34435518152173,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,2.9761904761904767,-103.16658797824996,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,93.75,56.381305085766286,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,88.75,54.0349203442283,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,83.33333333333334,53.090548120238765,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,82.5,52.710892944466025,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,71.35416666666667,50.17769220777839,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +FlowState,70.20833333333333,47.894556376520924,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TFT,65.20833333333333,48.04926998698471,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,63.22916666666668,47.5861909531335,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.312500000000014,46.3687172213469,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.00000000000001,47.148822968097335,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,57.49999999999999,46.75728672813329,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +DeepAR,53.22916666666667,42.297561992708474,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,37.49999999999999,33.304508592545844,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,33.333333333333336,25.693557606338423,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Stat. Ensemble,29.79166666666667,13.462321560207968,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +LightGBM,29.375,28.327668712071517,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.3125,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,18.749999999999996,-8.679221746369192,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,18.229166666666664,-57.991659118752125,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Naive,10.833333333333332,-93.34435531340436,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,2.5,-103.16658810164463,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 45ecd74cd9247bc17cf338f50dd57e231f8282da..5a232dfa62ac6712cb34f3a7aa54da92199f5978 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,92.26190476190477,43.79122175187925,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,88.24404761904762,40.846554891357655,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.7202380952381,39.02958949514069,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,75.14880952380952,38.49953271528147,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,68.1547619047619,37.402148758086064,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.20238095238094,34.649030144920836,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.82142857142857,32.82212435964361,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.1845238095238,34.275371714631554,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,31.39880952380953,9.182669245800245,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,29.166666666666664,14.492192307942386,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,28.720238095238088,9.221427219349588,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -Naive,25.0,0.53431759331386,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,24.25595238095238,0.5636979140183129,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Seasonal Naive,18.60119047619047,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.119047619047619,-9.202826200764115,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.45833333333331,43.79122178581662,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,88.33333333333336,40.85224967676806,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,80.625,39.029589747603886,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,77.29166666666667,38.49953279056998,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +FlowState,71.875,38.66602272763363,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,68.22916666666667,37.40214888898979,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,60.10416666666668,32.82212486071341,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,59.58333333333334,33.84989334671079,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,59.06250000000001,33.69441154871544,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +TFT,58.75,33.527958313386776,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,57.49999999999999,34.275371767381245,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +CatBoost,47.5,26.34923331647584,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,46.97916666666666,26.36531412454334,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +LightGBM,38.958333333333336,17.747983840024006,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,31.041666666666668,15.889952173949517,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoARIMA,24.375000000000004,10.502318217695771,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,24.16666666666667,14.492192597027309,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,20.3125,0.5636978963068806,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Naive,20.208333333333332,0.5343175629566765,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.104166666666666,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.541666666666666,-9.202826024430877,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 27a2e37064db93777a11bb517c79b21990d5f1a3..e5e451b67b7fe89b4415ffee002146d1a044f3c2 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,94.04761904761905,60.60556778506621,0.0,1.229484144569209,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,88.24404761904762,58.16751894020451,0.0,53.28853400476191,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.99404761904762,56.94649552407227,0.0,8.115464592611442,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -TiRex,79.61309523809524,56.5455202719779,0.0,0.5299449870260153,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,70.83333333333333,55.07707058833018,0.0,1.895778534404762,0.25,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.47619047619045,52.15616003488769,0.0,218.85705078901032,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.52380952380951,50.66033388093718,0.0,0.5020351477436238,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.1845238095238,51.22975427213352,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.67261904761905,24.140201566101073,0.0,16.21961278850746,0.0,37.5 -Stat. Ensemble,30.80357142857143,12.751170671675593,0.0,77.96321990622643,0.0,37.5 -AutoTheta,25.297619047619047,-2.5446445013498797,0.0,4.526263558054029,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,22.767857142857146,0.0,0.0,0.47731585217592587,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,20.982142857142858,-58.590060894645916,0.0,3.5696957142857144,0.0,12.5 -Naive,13.095238095238097,-70.46841679118427,0.0,0.47126298632142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,4.464285714285714,-79.14417548576023,0.0,0.44865447247826906,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,93.12499999999999,60.60556777464069,0.0,1.219865412061035,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,88.75,58.16102029426382,0.0,53.08930704428572,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.29166666666666,56.946495507781194,0.0,8.086343701896517,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +TiRex,81.875,56.54552025188988,0.0,0.534368017900975,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +FlowState,75.41666666666667,56.961361441445455,0.0,10.897278185476189,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,71.97916666666666,55.077070569034035,0.0,1.7491858470238095,0.25,0.0 +TFT,64.375,52.21806546035845,1154.7495615716732,1.2445208104761905,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,63.85416666666666,52.787031601443545,1257.4287658338405,2.5367794131867605,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,60.41666666666667,51.42017852560466,0.0,300.46992049143205,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,58.64583333333331,50.660333860069414,0.0,0.5042001652436238,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,54.99999999999999,51.22975425878349,0.0,7.915062387440475,0.041666666666666664,0.0 +DeepAR,52.39583333333333,45.60839564429823,1872.6321609074305,2.1365429885578084,0.0,8.333333333333332 +CatBoost,40.833333333333336,37.05382262022947,151.65138058258532,0.779223560829291,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,36.25000000000001,29.7027005718165,8.723202911800314,0.5941772642042911,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,32.291666666666664,27.710478818867024,0.0,16.966581296927224,0.0,16.666666666666664 +Stat. Ensemble,27.708333333333336,14.65088802933251,0.0,107.0230329237857,0.0,16.666666666666664 +AutoTheta,18.75,-2.544644522411743,0.0,4.489498287272854,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,18.229166666666668,0.0,0.0,0.5226379387028302,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,15.104166666666668,-58.59006093370929,0.0,3.5860189728571426,0.0,12.5 +Naive,9.583333333333334,-70.46841685766732,0.0,0.5319220605854591,0.0,0.0 +Drift,3.125,-79.144175508834,0.0,0.5097226914596436,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv index 05a33a9280fc9dc08e82491038a29457cba835d3..2f455d7994a3f45a3d0b33e22ccb69d216ef90f2 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -4,223 +4,254 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.035,0.0,0.072 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.053,0.021,0.086 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.066,0.033,0.106 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.088,0.052,0.13 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.146,0.06,0.245 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.138,0.089,0.187 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.148,0.092,0.207 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.125,0.081,0.166 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.123,0.078,0.166 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.147,0.093,0.203 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.324,0.266,0.382 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.275,0.395 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.327,0.258,0.392 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.316,0.527 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.134,0.079,0.185 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.185,0.125,0.242 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.146,0.239 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.251,0.192,0.326 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.315,0.247,0.381 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.366,0.309,0.438 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.509,0.388,0.627 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.542,0.429,0.651 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.036,-0.078,-0.0 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.036,-0.077,-0.0 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.018,-0.021,0.056 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.033,0.003,0.058 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.055,0.016,0.09 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.106,0.053,0.155 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.019,-0.021,0.056 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.033,0.004,0.058 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.055,0.017,0.09 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.116,0.018,0.22 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.107,0.053,0.155 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.118,0.051,0.183 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.094,0.055,0.134 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.091,0.038,0.138 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.117,0.049,0.183 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.3,0.247,0.357 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.249,0.373 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.302,0.232,0.374 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.4,0.302,0.504 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.283,0.416 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.37,0.615 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.526,0.416,0.638 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.103,0.038,0.165 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.156,0.111,0.197 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.166,0.123,0.211 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.224,0.158,0.305 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.29,0.227,0.359 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.284,0.416 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.056,-0.094,-0.021 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.019,-0.059,0.021 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.562,0.354,0.751,0.015,-0.02,0.051 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.037,-0.005,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.099,0.001,0.213 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.09,0.038,0.144 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.101,0.031,0.174 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.077,0.032,0.116 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.074,0.031,0.119 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.1,0.03,0.172 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.287,0.234,0.342 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.296,0.239,0.359 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.289,0.226,0.357 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.388,0.291,0.496 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.086,0.037,0.134 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.14,0.081,0.195 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.15,0.095,0.203 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.209,0.135,0.293 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.221,0.341 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.331,0.27,0.404 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.36,0.607 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.517,0.402,0.633 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.071,-0.119,-0.034 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.034,-0.062,-0.003 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.034,-0.062,-0.004 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.438,0.249,0.646,-0.015,-0.053,0.019 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.023,0.001,0.046 +TiRex,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,0.085,-0.012,0.19 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.076,0.031,0.122 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.088,0.024,0.152 +TiRex,TFT,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.063,0.022,0.105 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.688,0.958,0.06,0.002,0.106 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.087,0.02,0.153 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.276,0.223,0.332 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.228,0.349 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.279,0.214,0.343 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.268,0.493 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.073,0.005,0.129 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.127,0.081,0.173 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.137,0.087,0.187 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.197,0.129,0.28 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.266,0.204,0.333 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.321,0.261,0.394 -TiRex,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.474,0.348,0.6 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.51,0.394,0.626 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.096,-0.149,-0.055 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.058,-0.099,-0.016 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.058,-0.098,-0.017 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.039,-0.085,0.005 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.024,-0.048,-0.001 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.562,0.374,0.75,0.064,-0.028,0.165 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.054,0.016,0.096 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.066,0.003,0.131 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.041,-0.01,0.09 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.038,-0.019,0.084 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.065,-0.001,0.127 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.259,0.2,0.32 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.269,0.205,0.338 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.262,0.198,0.332 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.365,0.247,0.489 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.051,-0.022,0.113 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.106,0.051,0.159 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.117,0.066,0.172 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.178,0.109,0.267 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.248,0.183,0.321 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.305,0.241,0.381 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.461,0.333,0.588 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.498,0.381,0.614 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.171,-0.324,-0.064 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.131,-0.283,-0.018 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.11,-0.271,-0.001 +FlowState,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,-0.093,-0.235,0.012 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.438,0.25,0.626,-0.068,-0.198,0.028 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.604,0.417,0.792,-0.01,-0.104,0.066 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.003,-0.101,0.086 +FlowState,TFT,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.025,-0.163,0.084 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.604,0.396,0.792,-0.028,-0.141,0.051 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.625,0.417,0.793,-0.014,-0.162,0.088 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.046,-0.105,0.162 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.057,-0.09,0.154 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.122,0.015,0.215 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.197,0.075,0.279 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.257,0.136,0.352 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.16,-0.229,-0.098 Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.119,-0.184,-0.056 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.098,-0.168,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.082,-0.138,-0.032 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.058,-0.107,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.583,0.01,-0.07,0.094 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.709,0.013,-0.061,0.075 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.014,-0.075,0.035 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.521,0.312,0.708,-0.017,-0.085,0.037 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.708,0.011,-0.063,0.077 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.217,0.151,0.273 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.227,0.166,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.219,0.171,0.269 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.328,0.209,0.46 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.004,-0.091,0.062 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.055,-0.024,0.123 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.066,-0.002,0.129 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.131,0.071,0.205 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.205,0.141,0.27 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.265,0.197,0.334 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.43,0.306,0.55 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.355,0.58 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.174,-0.261,-0.102 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.134,-0.224,-0.054 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.112,-0.211,-0.032 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.096,-0.18,-0.025 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.071,-0.15,-0.003 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.003,-0.095,0.092 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.291,0.667,-0.013,-0.081,0.058 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.027,-0.11,0.04 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.03,-0.104,0.045 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.017,-0.114,0.07 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.043,-0.043,0.12 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.054,-0.047,0.147 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.12,0.031,0.23 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.195,0.083,0.302 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.256,0.156,0.355 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.143,-0.199,-0.088 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.104,-0.155,-0.058 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.083,-0.131,-0.033 +TFT,TiRex,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.067,-0.117,-0.022 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.043,-0.098,0.01 +TFT,FlowState,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.024,-0.091,0.14 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.014,-0.036,0.069 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.027,-0.042,0.099 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.003,-0.064,0.052 +TFT,PatchTST,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.01,-0.058,0.068 +TFT,DeepAR,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.068,0.021,0.113 +TFT,CatBoost,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.079,0.014,0.14 +TFT,LightGBM,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.143,0.068,0.237 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.216,0.145,0.294 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.275,0.214,0.354 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.14,-0.199,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.1,-0.161,-0.039 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.1,-0.16,-0.04 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.08,-0.134,-0.032 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.146,0.042,0.312,-0.064,-0.119,-0.002 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.188,0.042,0.333,-0.039,-0.092,0.019 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.604,0.027,-0.054,0.124 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.479,0.292,0.688,0.017,-0.038,0.078 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.029,-0.048,0.094 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.003,-0.054,0.06 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.028,-0.047,0.089 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.23,0.167,0.289 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.24,0.173,0.307 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.232,0.165,0.299 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.34,0.233,0.45 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.5,0.292,0.668,0.013,-0.04,0.064 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.071,0.003,0.14 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.082,0.017,0.144 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.146,0.068,0.241 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.219,0.15,0.287 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.277,0.209,0.353 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.322,0.564 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.478,0.371,0.591 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.173,-0.255,-0.103 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.132,-0.224,-0.051 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.111,-0.208,-0.031 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.095,-0.18,-0.02 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.07,-0.145,0.001 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.292,0.667,-0.012,-0.083,0.059 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.029,-0.098,0.045 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.208,0.105,0.301 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.218,0.116,0.313 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.21,0.115,0.302 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.32,0.18,0.47 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.256,0.158,0.358 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.749,1.0,0.424,0.293,0.545 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.463,0.342,0.574 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.48,-0.619,-0.362 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.429,-0.555,-0.328 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.402,-0.52,-0.305 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.496,-0.287 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.35,-0.471,-0.249 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.277,-0.376,-0.177 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.299,-0.406,-0.201 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.262,-0.432,-0.118 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.562,0.417,0.729,0.013,-0.018,0.052 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.003,-0.071,0.077 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.142,-0.001,0.282 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.062,-0.022,0.144 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.273,0.105,0.457 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.322,0.167,0.494 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.499,-0.653,-0.379 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.447,-0.595,-0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.42,-0.56,-0.314 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.4,-0.536,-0.295 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.367,-0.51,-0.258 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.293,-0.396,-0.199 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.315,-0.443,-0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.278,-0.456,-0.131 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.438,0.271,0.583,-0.013,-0.055,0.017 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.155,-0.227,-0.086 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.115,-0.198,-0.039 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.094,-0.155,-0.038 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.078,-0.148,-0.005 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.054,-0.127,0.021 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.375,0.207,0.583,0.014,-0.096,0.139 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.004,-0.066,0.084 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.016,-0.075,0.103 +PatchTST,TFT,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.01,-0.073,0.055 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.332,0.708,-0.014,-0.068,0.038 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.059,-0.004,0.132 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.07,-0.005,0.143 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.134,0.048,0.236 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.208,0.145,0.282 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.268,0.18,0.36 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.227,-0.319,-0.142 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.185,-0.246,-0.124 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.163,-0.242,-0.088 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.146,-0.21,-0.088 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.119,-0.188,-0.054 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.048,-0.194,0.095 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.058,-0.14,0.023 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.045,-0.136,0.041 +DeepAR,TFT,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.073,-0.127,-0.022 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.077,-0.163,-0.003 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.062,-0.152,0.004 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.012,-0.055,0.079 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.08,-0.011,0.19 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.159,0.075,0.248 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.896,0.792,0.979,0.222,0.144,0.314 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.314,-0.171 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.199,-0.267,-0.14 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.176,-0.255,-0.105 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.159,-0.23,-0.095 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.132,-0.208,-0.071 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.06,-0.182,0.083 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.071,-0.148,0.002 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.057,-0.172,0.045 +CatBoost,TFT,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.086,-0.163,-0.014 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.089,-0.168,-0.018 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.075,-0.168,0.005 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.012,-0.086,0.052 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.069,0.011,0.149 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.149,0.079,0.22 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.213,0.148,0.286 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.334,-0.483,-0.238 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.288,-0.439,-0.187 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.264,-0.414,-0.156 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.246,-0.389,-0.148 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.217,-0.365,-0.123 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.139,-0.273,-0.015 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.151,-0.257,-0.076 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.136,-0.299,-0.032 +LightGBM,TFT,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.167,-0.311,-0.072 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.171,-0.318,-0.073 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.155,-0.309,-0.05 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.087,-0.235,0.011 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.075,-0.175,-0.011 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.085,0.008,0.176 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.154,0.077,0.244 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.459,-0.614,-0.327 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.408,-0.56,-0.293 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.382,-0.517,-0.283 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.362,-0.499,-0.256 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.331,-0.472,-0.224 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.246,-0.388,-0.081 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.258,-0.371,-0.164 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.242,-0.432,-0.091 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.276,-0.417,-0.17 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.28,-0.402,-0.176 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.263,-0.393,-0.17 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.189,-0.33,-0.081 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.175,-0.282,-0.085 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.093,-0.214,-0.008 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.01,-0.076,0.058 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.131,-0.017,0.283 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.05,-0.037,0.126 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.263,0.087,0.448 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.314,0.149,0.483 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.485,-0.645,-0.347 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.433,-0.597,-0.302 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.407,-0.556,-0.292 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.386,-0.523,-0.272 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.354,-0.496,-0.247 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.281,-0.368,-0.206 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.303,-0.427,-0.198 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.266,-0.433,-0.13 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.003,-0.083,0.067 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.01,-0.061,0.071 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.14,-0.017,0.299 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.059,-0.044,0.146 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.27,0.117,0.437 -AutoTheta,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.32,0.178,0.469 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.726,-1.116,-0.462 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.666,-1.015,-0.432 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.635,-0.983,-0.41 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.972,-0.366 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.574,-0.958,-0.328 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.489,-0.851,-0.264 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.514,-0.819,-0.304 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.471,-0.887,-0.22 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.166,-0.394,0.001 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.151,-0.395,0.017 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.162,-0.427,0.017 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.094,-0.311,0.064 -AutoETS,Naive,0.5,0.333,0.708,0.152,-0.065,0.379 -AutoETS,Drift,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.21,0.008,0.422 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.583,0.896,0.075,-0.019,0.154 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.577,-0.781,-0.448 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.522,-0.712,-0.396 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.523,-0.713,-0.396 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.494,-0.677,-0.37 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.473,-0.65,-0.354 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.439,-0.616,-0.317 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.347,-0.544,-0.157 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.36,-0.502,-0.245 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.343,-0.55,-0.185 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.38,-0.547,-0.272 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.384,-0.547,-0.264 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.345,-0.557,-0.187 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.066,-0.169,0.022 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.052,-0.144,0.036 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.171,0.042 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.086,-0.068,0.237 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.366,-0.563,-0.22 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.104,0.021,0.208,-0.285,-0.458,-0.168 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.27,-0.4,-0.174 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.182,-0.323,-0.084 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.104,0.417,-0.081,-0.182,0.019 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.583,0.417,0.75,0.225,0.015,0.419 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.278,0.081,0.454 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.035,-1.682,-0.634 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.964,-1.6,-0.586 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.928,-1.544,-0.562 -Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.9,-1.501,-0.535 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.856,-1.426,-0.499 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.755,-1.223,-0.441 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.786,-1.296,-0.474 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.251,-0.735,-1.2,-0.415 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.375,-0.842,-0.118 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.357,-0.81,-0.095 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.371,-0.776,-0.132 -Naive,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.667,-0.179,-0.609,0.061 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.417,0.25,0.583,-0.29,-0.721,-0.015 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.068,0.046,0.091 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.184,-1.861,-0.752 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.108,-1.762,-0.712 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.069,-1.724,-0.671 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.039,-1.672,-0.651 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.992,-1.592,-0.615 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.884,-1.38,-0.549 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.917,-1.444,-0.589 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.862,-1.347,-0.52 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.476,-0.974,-0.201 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.457,-0.935,-0.175 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.471,-0.884,-0.217 -Drift,AutoETS,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.266,-0.731,-0.008 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.385,-0.831,-0.088 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.073,-0.101,-0.048 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv index f4c4fdee696d82af0ea5262d3c23b6aafff87475..64e9e6f6390856ddb7947200553ade84ab5ccd7f 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -4,223 +4,254 @@ Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.051,0.013,0.092 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.07,0.031,0.113 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.078,0.039,0.126 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.125,0.077,0.179 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.203,0.145,0.271 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.181,0.138,0.225 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.076,0.256 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.16,0.106,0.21 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.168,0.106,0.225 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.187,0.137,0.239 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.429,0.371,0.493 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.503,0.435,0.572 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.599,0.511,0.679 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.175,0.127,0.223 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.181,0.138,0.225 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.244,0.168,0.31 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.304,0.388 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.413,0.347,0.483 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.496,0.417,0.573 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.564,0.457,0.67 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.691,0.54,0.811 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.699,0.836 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.785,0.712,0.844 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.054,-0.102,-0.013 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.054,-0.101,-0.013 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.023,0.06 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.028,-0.002,0.052 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.02,-0.022,0.06 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.028,-0.001,0.052 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.077,0.038,0.115 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.16,0.086,0.237 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.137,0.085,0.181 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.143,0.095,0.189 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.398,0.341,0.461 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.402,0.552 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.577,0.482,0.664 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.118,0.021,0.219 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.115,0.063,0.163 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.123,0.054,0.188 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.143,0.096,0.189 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.13,0.062,0.194 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.137,0.086,0.181 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.203,0.144,0.258 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.311,0.275,0.352 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.318,0.451 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.469,0.389,0.551 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.54,0.422,0.655 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.673,0.513,0.803 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.762,0.679,0.83 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.774,0.695,0.838 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.075,-0.127,-0.032 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.02,-0.064,0.022 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.021,-0.064,0.022 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.008,-0.031,0.05 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.058,0.01,0.11 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.143,0.071,0.211 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.119,0.082,0.158 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.1,0.007,0.211 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.097,0.038,0.155 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.105,0.05,0.156 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.125,0.072,0.178 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.386,0.336,0.442 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.393,0.535 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.475,0.655 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.112,0.043,0.176 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.119,0.082,0.158 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.187,0.116,0.255 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.251,0.343 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.369,0.313,0.43 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.458,0.382,0.53 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.531,0.422,0.639 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.668,0.502,0.797 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.674,0.826 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.69,0.834 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.084,-0.144,-0.04 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.029,-0.055,0.002 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.029,-0.055,0.001 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.008,-0.052,0.03 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.051,0.022,0.082 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.136,0.061,0.211 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.112,0.051,0.16 +TiRex,FlowState,0.604,0.416,0.792,0.092,-0.007,0.199 +TiRex,TFT,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.09,0.035,0.139 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.098,0.026,0.159 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.118,0.077,0.158 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.329,0.441 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.461,0.39,0.534 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.471,0.649 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.105,0.042,0.167 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.112,0.051,0.16 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.18,0.12,0.232 +TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.291,0.248,0.336 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.364,0.305,0.431 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.454,0.374,0.532 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.527,0.41,0.643 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.665,0.499,0.798 -TiRex,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.755,0.673,0.823 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.767,0.687,0.832 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.142,-0.219,-0.084 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.084,-0.13,-0.039 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.084,-0.131,-0.04 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.062,-0.123,-0.01 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.054,-0.09,-0.023 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.09,0.014,0.159 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.064,-0.006,0.122 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,0.044,-0.059,0.146 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.041,-0.014,0.091 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.049,-0.037,0.118 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.792,0.667,0.917,0.071,0.037,0.111 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.293,0.408 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.433,0.355,0.507 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.542,0.448,0.629 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.057,-0.01,0.122 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.064,-0.006,0.122 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.792,0.583,0.917,0.137,0.07,0.193 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.253,0.202,0.306 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.33,0.268,0.398 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.424,0.344,0.506 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.382,0.622 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.65,0.47,0.791 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.742,0.66,0.811 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.677,0.82 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.255,-0.372,-0.169 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.191,-0.311,-0.094 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.167,-0.267,-0.077 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.158,-0.267,-0.065 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.099,-0.189,-0.014 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.195,-0.344,-0.083 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.134,-0.281,-0.021 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.111,-0.267,-0.007 +FlowState,TiRex,0.396,0.208,0.584,-0.102,-0.249,0.007 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.479,0.292,0.667,-0.046,-0.171,0.056 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TFT,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.003,-0.118,0.092 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.006,-0.116,0.093 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.028,-0.069,0.11 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.014,-0.112,0.118 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.021,-0.089,0.1 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.097,-0.031,0.202 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.219,0.096,0.301 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.299,0.2,0.382 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.398,0.297,0.483 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.479,0.348,0.605 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.191,-0.266,-0.118 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.13,-0.195,-0.067 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.107,-0.184,-0.04 +TFT,TiRex,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.099,-0.162,-0.037 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.043,-0.1,0.014 +TFT,FlowState,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.003,-0.101,0.106 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.009,-0.067,0.076 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.031,-0.018,0.084 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.017,-0.051,0.083 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.024,-0.041,0.08 +TFT,DeepAR,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.1,0.039,0.161 +TFT,CatBoost,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.221,0.161,0.283 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.301,0.234,0.375 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.4,0.307,0.489 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.48,0.353,0.605 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.202,-0.291,-0.119 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.14,-0.232,-0.057 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.117,-0.185,-0.053 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.108,-0.19,-0.027 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.052,-0.133,0.036 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.006,-0.102,0.104 +PatchTST,TFT,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.009,-0.083,0.063 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.023,-0.048,0.107 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.417,0.792,0.008,-0.073,0.083 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.016,-0.037,0.067 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.092,0.028,0.162 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.214,0.135,0.29 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.295,0.225,0.369 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.394,0.313,0.479 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.476,0.335,0.609 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.314,-0.158 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.167,-0.233,-0.106 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.143,-0.217,-0.078 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.134,-0.188,-0.083 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.076,-0.125,-0.038 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.029,-0.124,0.065 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.032,-0.091,0.017 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.023,-0.12,0.046 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.015,-0.095,0.065 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.007,-0.083,0.056 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.071,-0.01,0.139 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.196,0.14,0.252 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.278,0.215,0.349 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.38,0.295,0.46 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.464,0.336,0.589 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.212,-0.286,-0.145 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.15,-0.241,-0.067 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.127,-0.214,-0.044 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.118,-0.201,-0.044 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.061,-0.138,0.01 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.014,-0.134,0.101 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.017,-0.09,0.048 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.417,0.208,0.583,-0.008,-0.09,0.068 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.015,-0.069,0.087 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.028,-0.117,0.049 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.021,-0.107,0.061 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.284,0.206,0.357 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.376,0.292,0.462 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.496,0.395,0.59 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.452,0.326,0.577 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.619,0.419,0.775 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.717,0.63,0.787 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.73,0.648,0.798 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.007,-0.072,0.088 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.084,-0.011,0.168 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.208,0.117,0.289 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.289,0.194,0.383 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.389,0.29,0.487 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.471,0.329,0.607 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.221,-0.29,-0.159 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.158,-0.221,-0.093 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.158,-0.222,-0.094 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.135,-0.187,-0.09 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.126,-0.191,-0.053 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.069,-0.139,0.006 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.028,-0.051,0.105 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.022,-0.111,0.081 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.025,-0.087,0.04 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.016,-0.072,0.035 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.007,-0.059,0.076 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.303,0.246,0.365 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.317,0.47 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.51,0.41,0.6 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.007,-0.096,0.067 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.077,-0.008,0.158 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.202,0.144,0.258 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.283,0.22,0.352 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.303,0.467 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.468,0.341,0.593 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.628,0.447,0.776 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.639,0.796 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.738,0.654,0.807 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.23,-0.314,-0.158 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.167,-0.232,-0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.143,-0.217,-0.078 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.134,-0.188,-0.083 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.333,-0.076,-0.125,-0.038 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.021,-0.065,0.096 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.007,-0.083,0.056 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.298,0.239,0.36 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.389,0.311,0.462 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.507,0.407,0.593 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.464,0.336,0.589 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.624,0.431,0.78 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.723,0.636,0.795 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.653,0.805 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.752,-0.971,-0.589 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.662,-0.856,-0.517 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.629,-0.792,-0.507 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.616,-0.788,-0.49 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.534,-0.69,-0.414 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.396,-0.556,-0.26 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.436,-0.575,-0.326 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.425,-0.563,-0.314 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.323,-0.449,-0.202 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.255,-0.348,-0.169 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.23,-0.343,-0.132 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.22,-0.303,-0.137 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.417,-0.158,-0.239,-0.075 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.107,-0.253,0.03 +DeepAR,TFT,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.111,-0.191,-0.041 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.101,-0.194,-0.028 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.076,-0.161,0.01 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.092,-0.202,0.011 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.084,-0.188,0.008 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.135,0.051,0.22 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.223,0.133,0.308 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.333,0.231,0.431 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.771,0.979,0.423,0.262,0.573 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.529,-0.633,-0.436 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.451,-0.544,-0.379 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.522,-0.335 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.41,-0.505,-0.331 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.339,-0.441,-0.253 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.28,-0.431,-0.106 +CatBoost,TFT,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.284,-0.394,-0.192 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.272,-0.408,-0.156 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.244,-0.337,-0.162 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.262,-0.406,-0.133 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.253,-0.348,-0.168 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.156,-0.282,-0.054 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.583,0.375,0.751,0.102,-0.001,0.207 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.229,0.111,0.348 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.333,0.174,0.491 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.704,-0.935,-0.531 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.823,-0.467 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.584,-0.755,-0.456 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.571,-0.758,-0.439 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.491,-0.661,-0.366 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.426,-0.619,-0.249 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.43,-0.6,-0.305 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.418,-0.585,-0.291 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.386,-0.535,-0.274 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.406,-0.621,-0.241 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.396,-0.543,-0.283 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.288,-0.445,-0.154 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.417,0.249,0.625,-0.114,-0.261,0.001 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.129,0.055,0.205 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.297,0.16,0.424 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.236,0.077,0.386 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.49,0.22,0.713 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.605,0.485,0.708 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.624,0.512,0.723 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.013,-1.336,-0.769 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.91,-1.233,-0.673 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.153,-0.646 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.857,-1.146,-0.639 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.762,-1.028,-0.55 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.603,-0.858,-0.412 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.649,-0.887,-0.465 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.637,-0.86,-0.452 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.149,-0.259,-0.058 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.604,0.896,0.141,0.066,0.216 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.646,0.917,0.257,0.106,0.407 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.984,-1.341,-0.717 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.883,-1.23,-0.637 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.845,-1.129,-0.619 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.83,-1.139,-0.598 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.737,-1.023,-0.523 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.661,-0.935,-0.423 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.666,-0.959,-0.443 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.651,-0.918,-0.455 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.614,-0.851,-0.418 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.637,-0.95,-0.409 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.625,-0.876,-0.435 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.5,-0.758,-0.3 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.298,-0.533,-0.125 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.104,0.396,-0.165,-0.276,-0.071 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.192,0.06,0.335 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.458,0.771,0.122,-0.066,0.298 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.439,0.12,0.689 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.546,0.41,0.66 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.568,0.442,0.676 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.492,-2.115,-1.044 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.364,-1.976,-0.929 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.317,-1.896,-0.904 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.298,-1.852,-0.889 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.181,-1.693,-0.812 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.985,-1.437,-0.652 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.041,-1.499,-0.695 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.026,-1.454,-0.688 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.422,-0.736,-0.191 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.238,-0.503,-0.064 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.087,-0.425,0.187 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.316,-0.143,0.641 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.438,0.307,0.552 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.465,0.339,0.573 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.667,0.479,0.854,0.135,-0.062,0.31 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.293,-2.033,-0.842 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.175,-1.896,-0.731 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.176,-1.896,-0.731 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.132,-1.771,-0.729 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.115,-1.799,-0.695 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.007,-1.647,-0.618 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.826,-1.363,-0.485 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.878,-1.458,-0.518 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.919,-1.533,-0.535 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.925,-1.533,-0.546 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.908,-1.558,-0.504 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.865,-1.431,-0.507 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.308,-0.63,-0.084 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.396,0.229,0.542,-0.139,-0.424,0.062 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.417,0.208,0.625,0.08,-0.23,0.298 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.892,-1.544,-0.491 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.878,-1.458,-0.518 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.125,0.021,0.229,-0.733,-1.339,-0.355 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.499,-0.963,-0.21 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.208,0.083,0.354,-0.346,-0.686,-0.118 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.146,0.521,-0.156,-0.45,0.058 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.367,-0.065,0.652 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.604,0.875,0.483,0.284,0.63 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.508,0.311,0.652 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.236,-4.298,-1.173 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.063,-4.072,-1.052 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.013,-3.932,-1.009 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.989,-3.958,-0.997 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.854,-3.795,-0.887 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-1.626,-3.45,-0.721 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.685,-3.458,-0.809 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.658,-3.552,-0.759 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.962,-2.481,-0.281 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.782,-2.221,-0.137 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.583,0.375,0.792,-0.461,-1.784,0.125 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.58,-1.874,0.061 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.148,-0.751,0.525 -AutoETS,Drift,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.186,-0.679,0.554 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.433,-5.103,-2.32 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.206,-4.867,-2.12 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.122,-4.734,-2.067 -Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-3.089,-4.662,-2.056 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.881,-4.277,-1.937 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.531,-3.704,-1.702 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.909,-1.771 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.605,-3.867,-1.745 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.53,-2.43,-0.943 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.202,-1.944,-0.696 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.779,-1.234,-0.443 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.125,0.396,-0.933,-1.702,-0.396 -Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.174,-1.107,0.429 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.048,0.034,0.064 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.658,-5.424,-2.472 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.419,-5.171,-2.279 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.331,-5.04,-2.224 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.296,-4.958,-2.2 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.078,-4.557,-2.092 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.71,-3.948,-1.839 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.816,-4.184,-1.894 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.788,-4.116,-1.88 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.658,-2.609,-1.05 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.314,-2.087,-0.791 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.869,-1.342,-0.513 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.032,-1.871,-0.452 -Drift,AutoETS,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.229,-1.244,0.404 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.051,-0.068,-0.035 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index d8ac1656651264c5812fe91e3e6eee5f7f6aa1e6..8211851b168a4ac13dc18ba28a9ce8af8b4cb0ba 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.458,0.25,0.625,0.05,-0.007,0.129 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.05,-0.007,0.128 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.078,0.031,0.134 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.086,0.032,0.169 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.084,0.027,0.154 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.102,0.045,0.179 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.14,0.077,0.21 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.15,0.075,0.23 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.152,0.062,0.246 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.163,0.093,0.245 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.154,0.079,0.234 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.145,0.101,0.189 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.313,0.444 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.343,0.27,0.421 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.381,0.31,0.444 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.435,0.349,0.527 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.435,0.327,0.548 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.237,0.134,0.339 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.237,0.167,0.303 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.317,0.199,0.445 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.332,0.268,0.404 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.356,0.517 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.412,0.562 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.542,0.375,0.75,-0.052,-0.147,0.007 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.052,-0.147,0.007 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.729,0.542,0.875,0.03,-0.017,0.075 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.038,0.005,0.07 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.036,-0.086,0.136 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.055,0.014,0.094 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.095,0.024,0.166 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.119,0.063,0.179 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.1,0.031,0.158 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.349,0.28,0.421 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.308,0.241,0.381 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.348,0.282,0.415 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.405,0.322,0.502 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.296,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.333,0.489 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.458,0.388,0.541 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.106,0.043,0.175 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.108,-0.039,0.223 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.12,0.063,0.18 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.11,0.055,0.171 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.1,0.032,0.158 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.197,0.131,0.258 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.197,0.137,0.262 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.281,0.156,0.424 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.236,0.37 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.409,0.332,0.489 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.085,-0.155,-0.032 TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.125,0.458,-0.031,-0.081,0.017 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.037,0.053 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.855,0.006,-0.091,0.095 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.771,0.583,0.917,0.026,-0.032,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.067,0.002,0.132 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.078,0.018,0.144 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.08,-0.03,0.18 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.854,0.708,0.958,0.092,0.041,0.148 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.083,0.028,0.133 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.812,0.625,0.958,0.072,0.025,0.118 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.329,0.257,0.399 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.287,0.229,0.356 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.263,0.389 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.296,0.48 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.275,0.513 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.172,0.09,0.243 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.172,0.093,0.252 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.259,0.126,0.407 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.275,0.219,0.345 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.39,0.31,0.47 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.442,0.365,0.521 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.094,-0.203,-0.033 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.04,-0.075,-0.005 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.056,0.035 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.003,-0.132,0.098 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.018,-0.01,0.044 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.059,-0.026,0.14 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.07,-0.0,0.148 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.072,-0.09,0.195 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.085,0.033,0.141 +TiRex,TFT,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.075,0.009,0.14 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.688,0.958,0.064,-0.011,0.122 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.323,0.249,0.397 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.281,0.222,0.349 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.323,0.256,0.387 -TiRex,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.382,0.285,0.485 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.382,0.261,0.518 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.165,0.092,0.23 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.165,0.1,0.233 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.252,0.127,0.392 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.269,0.204,0.341 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.385,0.308,0.467 -TiRex,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.437,0.36,0.522 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.091,-0.182,-0.028 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.037,-0.157,0.079 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.312,0.145,0.5,-0.006,-0.105,0.084 +FlowState,TiRex,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.003,-0.108,0.117 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.604,0.396,0.792,0.02,-0.079,0.129 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.073,-0.063,0.184 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.075,-0.045,0.181 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.087,0.003,0.184 +FlowState,TFT,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.077,-0.052,0.192 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.688,0.5,0.854,0.067,-0.02,0.137 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.167,0.023,0.295 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.167,0.068,0.266 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.254,0.122,0.4 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.271,0.203,0.341 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.387,0.298,0.473 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.114,-0.218,-0.047 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.058,-0.104,-0.014 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.058,-0.104,-0.015 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.229,0.083,0.417,-0.027,-0.081,0.031 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.018,-0.046,0.01 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.396,0.208,0.604,-0.021,-0.149,0.073 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.042,-0.044,0.134 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.054,-0.022,0.143 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.583,0.375,0.75,0.056,-0.104,0.183 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.708,0.542,0.854,0.068,0.018,0.135 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.625,0.457,0.793,0.058,-0.01,0.134 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.048,-0.026,0.109 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.311,0.238,0.386 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.268,0.205,0.337 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.31,0.242,0.375 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.371,0.278,0.472 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.37,0.245,0.51 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.15,0.071,0.226 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.15,0.09,0.219 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.239,0.11,0.382 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.256,0.195,0.328 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.374,0.293,0.452 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.427,0.351,0.51 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.163,-0.266,-0.084 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.105,-0.2,-0.025 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.072,-0.152,-0.002 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.063,-0.163,0.025 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.044,-0.155,0.042 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.177,-0.299,-0.081 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.118,-0.212,-0.045 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.085,-0.169,-0.018 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.076,-0.174,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.079,-0.226,0.06 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.057,-0.168,0.022 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.027,-0.056,0.108 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.006,-0.091,0.086 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.28,0.199,0.364 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.236,0.148,0.328 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.28,0.207,0.356 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.343,0.227,0.464 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.343,0.203,0.492 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.346,0.26,0.44 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.402,0.302,0.503 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.002,-0.114,0.082 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.015,-0.071,0.091 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.005,-0.069,0.063 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.332,0.708,-0.006,-0.114,0.079 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.102,0.046,0.162 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.102,-0.014,0.199 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.792,0.583,0.917,0.196,0.052,0.35 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.214,0.12,0.309 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.338,0.254,0.433 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.18,-0.327,-0.066 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.121,-0.286,0.038 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.088,-0.22,0.029 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.078,-0.242,0.082 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.081,-0.221,0.043 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.25,0.625,-0.059,-0.224,0.095 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.002,-0.09,0.103 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.013,-0.114,0.143 +PatchTST,TFT,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.003,-0.118,0.124 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.458,0.792,-0.009,-0.133,0.089 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.1,0.003,0.23 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.1,-0.067,0.234 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.194,0.013,0.361 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.212,0.093,0.319 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.854,0.708,0.979,0.337,0.226,0.446 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.195,-0.324,-0.102 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.136,-0.218,-0.067 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.136,-0.219,-0.067 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.146,0.042,0.292,-0.102,-0.173,-0.042 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.092,-0.165,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.095,-0.225,-0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.146,0.458,-0.073,-0.156,-0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.028,-0.121,0.053 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.016,-0.1,0.066 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.013,-0.167,0.102 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.583,0.417,0.75,-0.011,-0.081,0.049 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.562,0.375,0.75,-0.022,-0.121,0.051 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.26,0.184,0.328 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.214,0.16,0.268 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.26,0.187,0.327 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.325,0.227,0.428 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.324,0.192,0.475 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.088,-0.001,0.165 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.088,-0.009,0.17 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.183,0.058,0.333 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.201,0.139,0.264 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.328,0.255,0.4 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.385,0.3,0.471 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.183,-0.305,-0.086 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.124,-0.207,-0.058 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.09,-0.154,-0.029 +TFT,TiRex,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.081,-0.163,-0.009 +TFT,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.084,-0.238,0.05 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.375,0.207,0.543,-0.062,-0.155,0.01 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.005,-0.068,0.064 +TFT,PatchTST,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.003,-0.141,0.105 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.417,0.25,0.583,0.011,-0.051,0.075 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.458,0.292,0.667,-0.011,-0.099,0.062 +TFT,DeepAR,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.097,0.031,0.162 +TFT,CatBoost,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.097,-0.011,0.184 +TFT,LightGBM,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.192,0.046,0.348 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.21,0.127,0.3 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.259,0.415 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.169,-0.234,-0.113 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.111,-0.188,-0.033 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.375,-0.078,-0.134,-0.025 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.146,0.042,0.312,-0.069,-0.138,0.011 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.312,0.146,0.5,-0.072,-0.158,0.02 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.05,-0.122,0.026 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.006,-0.094,0.083 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.668,0.006,-0.085,0.103 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.375,0.208,0.542,0.009,-0.097,0.117 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.438,0.25,0.625,0.022,-0.054,0.108 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.542,0.333,0.708,0.011,-0.066,0.09 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.276,0.209,0.352 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.231,0.155,0.314 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.276,0.209,0.338 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.339,0.25,0.433 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.339,0.22,0.463 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.107,0.017,0.205 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.108,0.032,0.178 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.201,0.061,0.35 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.219,0.153,0.296 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.343,0.265,0.426 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.398,0.327,0.477 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.616,-0.799,-0.455 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.728,-0.388 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.49,-0.665,-0.345 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.477,-0.657,-0.332 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.451,-0.628,-0.313 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.39,-0.572,-0.248 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.352,-0.488,-0.225 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.382,-0.542,-0.265 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.31,-0.514,-0.155 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.245,-0.347,-0.151 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.208,-0.322,-0.099 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.197,-0.299,-0.102 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.201,-0.419,-0.023 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.176,-0.292,-0.077 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.113,-0.193,-0.048 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.111,-0.299,-0.003 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.096,-0.197,0.001 +DeepAR,TFT,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.108,-0.193,-0.032 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.12,-0.258,-0.017 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.0,-0.118,0.104 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.105,-0.061,0.278 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.708,0.521,0.876,0.125,0.023,0.236 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.896,0.792,0.979,0.264,0.177,0.364 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.31,-0.435,-0.2 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.245,-0.355,-0.159 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.208,-0.337,-0.103 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.198,-0.303,-0.111 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.201,-0.362,-0.072 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.177,-0.28,-0.098 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.113,-0.249,0.014 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.111,-0.306,0.062 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.096,-0.205,0.009 +CatBoost,TFT,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.108,-0.225,0.011 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.121,-0.217,-0.033 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.0,-0.116,0.105 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.105,0.001,0.226 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.124,0.034,0.212 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.263,0.179,0.357 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.463,-0.802,-0.248 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.391,-0.735,-0.184 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.349,-0.687,-0.144 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.337,-0.645,-0.145 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.341,-0.667,-0.139 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.314,-0.619,-0.124 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.208,0.083,0.417,-0.243,-0.538,-0.055 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.24,-0.565,-0.013 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.224,-0.5,-0.062 +LightGBM,TFT,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.237,-0.533,-0.048 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.251,-0.539,-0.065 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.117,-0.385,0.058 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.117,-0.291,-0.001 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.582,0.917,0.022,-0.202,0.164 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.177,0.037,0.3 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.496,-0.677,-0.367 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.422,-0.588,-0.309 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.38,-0.527,-0.28 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.368,-0.516,-0.256 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.371,-0.516,-0.255 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.344,-0.489,-0.242 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.272,-0.448,-0.137 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.269,-0.469,-0.103 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.252,-0.359,-0.161 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.265,-0.428,-0.146 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.28,-0.42,-0.181 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.292,0.124,0.479,-0.142,-0.309,-0.024 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.142,-0.268,-0.035 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.25,0.083,0.418,-0.023,-0.197,0.168 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.667,0.499,0.833,-0.062,-0.175,0.023 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.479,0.312,0.625,-0.0,-0.054,0.039 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.087,-0.041,0.202 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.087,-0.067,0.272 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.092,0.023,0.17 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.168,0.068,0.262 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.521,-0.728,-0.371 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.446,-0.616,-0.318 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.402,-0.553,-0.297 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.39,-0.535,-0.285 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.366,-0.509,-0.258 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.308,-0.488,-0.174 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.273,-0.366,-0.191 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.301,-0.458,-0.184 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.333,0.167,0.501,0.058,-0.023,0.149 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.058,-0.042,0.153 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.14,0.042,0.242 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.14,-0.001,0.316 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.145,0.062,0.228 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.217,0.141,0.309 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.615,-0.798,-0.45 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.535,-0.71,-0.394 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.637,-0.356 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.476,-0.632,-0.343 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.45,-0.6,-0.319 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.389,-0.554,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.351,-0.486,-0.23 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.381,-0.51,-0.264 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.521,0.375,0.688,0.0,-0.041,0.051 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.062,-0.18,0.04 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.087,-0.045,0.211 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.087,-0.076,0.266 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.092,0.015,0.176 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.169,0.065,0.265 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.77,-1.113,-0.537 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.681,-1.01,-0.475 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.631,-0.924,-0.421 -Naive,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.617,-0.941,-0.398 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.589,-0.896,-0.386 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.522,-0.864,-0.294 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.481,-0.749,-0.294 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.513,-0.764,-0.333 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.095,-0.254,0.039 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.163,-0.32,-0.044 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.096,-0.267,0.043 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,AutoETS,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.0,-0.124,0.118 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.333,0.667,0.005,-0.133,0.133 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.089,0.051,0.129 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.769,-1.213,-0.486 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.681,-1.106,-0.42 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.631,-1.051,-0.38 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.617,-1.073,-0.353 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.588,-1.04,-0.325 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.522,-0.967,-0.255 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.48,-0.905,-0.238 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.513,-0.863,-0.282 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.095,-0.373,0.062 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.163,-0.463,0.001 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.095,-0.362,0.07 -AutoETS,Naive,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.0,-0.133,0.11 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.417,0.792,0.006,-0.257,0.171 -AutoETS,Drift,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.089,-0.045,0.19 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.833,0.708,0.958,0.159,0.078,0.242 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.072,-0.552 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.691,-0.957,-0.498 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.691,-0.958,-0.498 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.64,-0.885,-0.449 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.626,-0.875,-0.445 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.63,-0.899,-0.425 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.597,-0.825,-0.415 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.53,-0.785,-0.352 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.512,-0.764,-0.34 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.146,0.021,0.292,-0.508,-0.805,-0.293 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.489,-0.667,-0.342 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.711,-0.349 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.521,-0.743,-0.36 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.101,-0.204,-0.023 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.169,-0.295,-0.066 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.102,-0.214,-0.015 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.333,0.667,-0.005,-0.153,0.117 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.396,0.208,0.583,-0.006,-0.206,0.205 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.104,0.021,0.208,-0.358,-0.573,-0.216 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.358,-0.555,-0.218 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.216,-0.429,-0.039 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.167,0.042,0.292,-0.189,-0.319,-0.084 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.667,0.5,0.875,0.084,-0.026,0.185 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.943,-1.284,-0.701 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.846,-1.177,-0.635 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.791,-1.089,-0.574 -Drift,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.776,-1.091,-0.562 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.745,-1.041,-0.542 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.671,-1.012,-0.432 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.626,-0.891,-0.429 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.662,-0.913,-0.485 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.202,-0.356,-0.073 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.277,-0.446,-0.164 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.203,-0.361,-0.069 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.098,-0.149,-0.054 -Drift,AutoETS,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.098,-0.235,0.043 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.333,0.125,0.5,-0.092,-0.227,0.025 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 1cbae5c2d629974e639c9fae77a676073e3bda4d..6ccf4bbee14206b3c89cbbd38a4456f57b94c6b9 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_sub_hourly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.058,-0.002,0.142 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.058,-0.002,0.141 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.032,0.149 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.093,0.035,0.184 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.085,0.024,0.159 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.123,0.058,0.212 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.177,0.114,0.244 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.166,0.074,0.257 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.176,0.094,0.264 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.189,0.122,0.261 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.202,0.13,0.286 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.192,0.152,0.235 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.481,0.399,0.555 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.548,0.47,0.617 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.616,0.529,0.688 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.276,0.173,0.371 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.374,0.317,0.429 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.345,0.54 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.455,0.376,0.526 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.606,0.517,0.691 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.723,0.59,0.832 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.769,0.708,0.815 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.78,0.72,0.824 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.062,-0.165,0.002 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.062,-0.164,0.002 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.646,0.458,0.833,0.028,-0.023,0.077 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.037,0.006,0.068 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.688,0.5,0.875,0.028,-0.102,0.132 Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.667,0.958,0.069,0.029,0.107 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.126,0.041,0.204 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.152,0.1,0.209 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.114,-0.032,0.232 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.124,0.062,0.187 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.139,0.067,0.21 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.77,1.0,0.152,0.099,0.209 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.142,0.072,0.2 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.449,0.377,0.525 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.521,0.439,0.597 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.592,0.499,0.671 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.485,0.667 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.705,0.55,0.825 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.755,0.683,0.809 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.766,0.697,0.818 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.231,0.157,0.292 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.335,0.285,0.387 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.305,0.519 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.421,0.355,0.492 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.582,0.484,0.667 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.093,-0.175,-0.033 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.029,-0.083,0.022 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.354,0.167,0.542,-0.029,-0.083,0.023 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.521,0.312,0.708,0.009,-0.041,0.061 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.646,0.458,0.833,-0.0,-0.105,0.092 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.042,-0.014,0.094 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.1,0.023,0.178 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.792,0.625,0.917,0.088,-0.026,0.185 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.099,0.033,0.16 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.792,0.625,0.958,0.114,0.04,0.187 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.75,1.0,0.127,0.078,0.178 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.117,0.068,0.164 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.354,0.516 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.417,0.587 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.58,0.484,0.664 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.208,0.119,0.283 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.316,0.249,0.384 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.388,0.278,0.511 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.33,0.481 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.569,0.475,0.66 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.697,0.541,0.82 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.747,0.668,0.803 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.76,0.684,0.813 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.103,-0.226,-0.036 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.039,-0.073,-0.006 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.479,0.292,0.688,-0.009,-0.065,0.04 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.604,0.417,0.792,-0.01,-0.156,0.1 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.033,0.003,0.064 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.092,-0.009,0.176 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.08,-0.08,0.206 +TiRex,TFT,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.091,0.018,0.161 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.542,0.917,0.106,0.02,0.183 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.119,0.072,0.172 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.938,0.833,1.0,0.109,0.026,0.171 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.355,0.502 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.502,0.419,0.576 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.576,0.486,0.653 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.201,0.125,0.266 +TiRex,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.255,0.363 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.382,0.279,0.492 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.399,0.335,0.465 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.565,0.466,0.651 -TiRex,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.695,0.534,0.818 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.745,0.67,0.801 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.757,0.687,0.81 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.093,-0.189,-0.025 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.312,0.125,0.5,-0.029,-0.152,0.092 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.354,0.167,0.542,0.0,-0.101,0.095 +FlowState,TiRex,0.396,0.208,0.583,0.01,-0.112,0.135 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.562,0.375,0.75,0.042,-0.064,0.16 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.088,-0.028,0.191 +FlowState,TFT,0.625,0.417,0.792,0.099,-0.041,0.22 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.114,-0.018,0.219 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.128,0.039,0.23 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.854,0.688,0.979,0.118,0.036,0.186 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.708,0.5,0.875,0.209,0.055,0.332 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.316,0.231,0.399 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.388,0.281,0.507 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.405,0.297,0.498 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.57,0.476,0.66 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.14,-0.27,-0.061 Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.188,0.042,0.333,-0.074,-0.12,-0.03 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.043,-0.104,0.014 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.034,-0.068,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.438,0.25,0.625,-0.044,-0.19,0.06 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.061,-0.04,0.152 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.542,0.333,0.708,0.049,-0.126,0.176 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.06,-0.016,0.14 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.075,-0.014,0.158 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.875,0.792,0.958,0.09,0.044,0.153 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.896,0.771,1.0,0.079,-0.011,0.145 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.408,0.335,0.49 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.485,0.398,0.564 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.467,0.645 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.792,0.583,0.917,0.174,0.087,0.247 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.286,0.23,0.346 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.361,0.247,0.48 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.31,0.451 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.551,0.451,0.641 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.685,0.518,0.816 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.736,0.662,0.793 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.749,0.679,0.803 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.214,-0.323,-0.129 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.144,-0.256,-0.043 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.111,-0.216,-0.023 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.101,-0.214,0.009 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.065,-0.179,0.038 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.198,-0.346,-0.08 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.128,-0.302,0.031 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.083,0.375,-0.097,-0.227,0.026 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.086,-0.259,0.074 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.097,-0.236,0.027 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.458,0.292,0.667,-0.051,-0.214,0.112 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,TFT,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.012,-0.109,0.134 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.667,0.499,0.833,0.028,-0.085,0.141 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.043,-0.083,0.177 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.792,0.625,0.918,0.032,-0.087,0.131 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.729,0.542,0.917,0.132,0.023,0.267 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.25,0.114,0.365 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.328,0.178,0.481 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.347,0.235,0.462 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.528,0.408,0.643 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.213,-0.359,-0.104 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.142,-0.23,-0.066 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.11,-0.19,-0.034 +TFT,TiRex,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.1,-0.192,-0.018 +TFT,FlowState,0.375,0.208,0.583,-0.11,-0.282,0.039 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.064,-0.163,0.016 +TFT,PatchTST,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.012,-0.154,0.099 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.583,0.375,0.751,0.016,-0.083,0.105 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.032,-0.042,0.104 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.02,-0.078,0.101 +TFT,DeepAR,0.583,0.375,0.792,0.122,0.049,0.196 +TFT,CatBoost,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.241,0.148,0.321 +TFT,LightGBM,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.32,0.198,0.455 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.339,0.256,0.414 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.522,0.416,0.617 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.233,-0.353,-0.139 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.161,-0.266,-0.072 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.208,0.042,0.375,-0.128,-0.229,-0.042 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.25,0.083,0.458,-0.118,-0.224,-0.02 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.129,-0.281,0.018 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.081,-0.188,0.014 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.333,0.167,0.501,-0.029,-0.164,0.078 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.417,0.249,0.625,-0.017,-0.118,0.077 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.542,0.333,0.75,0.03,-0.074,0.124 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.625,0.458,0.833,0.019,-0.087,0.113 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.369,0.268,0.469 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.452,0.352,0.535 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.533,0.425,0.626 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.522,0.407,0.63 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.671,0.49,0.808 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.719,0.637,0.779 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.733,0.655,0.791 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.015,-0.083,0.104 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.583,0.417,0.792,0.004,-0.105,0.096 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.107,0.003,0.203 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.228,0.122,0.319 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.833,0.667,0.958,0.309,0.178,0.444 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.328,0.23,0.421 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.514,0.4,0.621 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.252,-0.4,-0.15 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.179,-0.264,-0.111 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.104,0.0,0.23,-0.179,-0.264,-0.11 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.25,-0.146,-0.216,-0.084 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.135,-0.208,-0.077 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.146,-0.298,-0.04 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.125,0.042,0.208,-0.098,-0.181,-0.046 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.458,0.25,0.667,-0.031,-0.141,0.069 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.045,-0.214,0.076 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.033,-0.116,0.041 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.016,-0.116,0.077 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.521,0.333,0.729,-0.012,-0.116,0.069 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.35,0.261,0.445 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.434,0.331,0.52 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.519,0.407,0.609 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.542,0.333,0.708,0.093,-0.014,0.176 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.216,0.134,0.288 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.298,0.186,0.43 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.317,0.236,0.402 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.507,0.401,0.604 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.657,0.468,0.8 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.711,0.623,0.773 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.725,0.641,0.784 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.238,-0.307,-0.18 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.166,-0.251,-0.077 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.166,-0.25,-0.078 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.133,-0.196,-0.073 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.062,0.0,0.167,-0.122,-0.206,-0.026 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.146,0.021,0.312,-0.133,-0.229,-0.037 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.104,0.0,0.229,-0.086,-0.17,0.011 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.375,0.167,0.542,-0.019,-0.127,0.08 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.208,0.082,0.375,-0.033,-0.15,0.08 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.021,-0.113,0.073 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.417,0.208,0.583,-0.004,-0.106,0.095 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.479,0.271,0.667,0.012,-0.074,0.104 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.357,0.268,0.443 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.441,0.345,0.529 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.524,0.422,0.615 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.458,0.25,0.667,0.103,-0.008,0.208 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.225,0.156,0.29 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.306,0.184,0.436 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.325,0.244,0.404 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.512,0.407,0.612 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.66,0.495,0.8 -Sundial-Base,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.714,0.637,0.772 -Sundial-Base,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.728,0.651,0.783 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.926,-1.246,-0.665 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.813,-1.106,-0.604 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.064,-0.548 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.746,-1.009,-0.55 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.689,-0.963,-0.504 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.586,-0.884,-0.365 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.538,-0.802,-0.353 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.555,-0.796,-0.367 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.381,-0.591,-0.21 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.3,-0.412,-0.187 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.263,-0.394,-0.136 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.252,-0.362,-0.142 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.292,0.125,0.5,-0.264,-0.496,-0.059 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.208,0.083,0.417,-0.211,-0.329,-0.095 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.271,0.083,0.458,-0.152,-0.365,-0.024 +DeepAR,TFT,0.417,0.208,0.625,-0.138,-0.243,-0.051 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.12,-0.255,-0.003 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.458,0.292,0.667,-0.102,-0.214,0.014 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.542,0.333,0.75,-0.115,-0.262,0.008 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.136,0.028,0.246 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.667,0.458,0.875,0.226,0.075,0.389 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.812,0.646,0.958,0.248,0.157,0.336 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.771,0.979,0.456,0.322,0.575 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.598,-0.752,-0.465 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.504,-0.63,-0.398 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.462,-0.623,-0.331 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.449,-0.57,-0.342 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.463,-0.664,-0.301 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.401,-0.528,-0.299 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.333,-0.574,-0.128 +CatBoost,TFT,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.317,-0.474,-0.174 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.296,-0.468,-0.138 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.276,-0.405,-0.154 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.291,-0.408,-0.185 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.157,-0.327,-0.029 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.105,0.001,0.226 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.667,0.458,0.833,0.129,0.044,0.201 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.371,0.241,0.496 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.784,-1.174,-0.527 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.68,-1.078,-0.44 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.633,-1.047,-0.384 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.618,-0.967,-0.386 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.633,-1.027,-0.39 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.565,-0.921,-0.327 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.489,-0.929,-0.217 +LightGBM,TFT,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.471,-0.836,-0.247 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.167,0.042,0.333,-0.447,-0.799,-0.216 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.425,-0.753,-0.228 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.441,-0.774,-0.226 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.333,0.125,0.542,-0.292,-0.637,-0.081 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.117,-0.291,-0.001 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.417,0.833,0.028,-0.134,0.153 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.297,0.148,0.438 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.835,-1.111,-0.603 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.728,-0.968,-0.55 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.679,-0.926,-0.492 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.664,-0.869,-0.503 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.68,-0.99,-0.423 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.609,-0.823,-0.45 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.531,-0.859,-0.306 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.513,-0.707,-0.345 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.488,-0.726,-0.298 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.465,-0.673,-0.308 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.482,-0.679,-0.323 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.188,0.042,0.354,-0.329,-0.506,-0.187 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.333,0.167,0.542,-0.148,-0.252,-0.047 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.375,0.167,0.583,-0.028,-0.181,0.118 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.729,0.604,0.854,0.131,0.049,0.214 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.26,0.148,0.365 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.688,0.542,0.833,0.241,0.096,0.38 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.771,0.604,0.917,0.496,0.217,0.718 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.555,0.441,0.644 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.577,0.472,0.662 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.215,-1.609,-0.886 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.086,-1.481,-0.781 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.42,-0.714 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.008,-1.359,-0.721 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.942,-1.292,-0.662 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.824,-1.152,-0.542 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.768,-1.083,-0.494 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.789,-1.125,-0.527 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.271,0.146,0.396,-0.15,-0.272,-0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.583,0.917,0.149,0.058,0.238 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.604,0.458,0.771,0.128,-0.061,0.301 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.729,0.542,0.896,0.447,0.138,0.694 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.917,0.792,1.0,0.488,0.377,0.585 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.513,0.411,0.604 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.603,-2.208,-1.121 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.451,-2.038,-0.996 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.382,-1.975,-0.939 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.36,-1.878,-0.944 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.283,-1.816,-0.876 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.143,-1.675,-0.74 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.078,-1.557,-0.686 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.103,-1.596,-0.73 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.352,-0.574,-0.173 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.175,-0.313,-0.061 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.417,0.792,-0.025,-0.272,0.203 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.5,0.292,0.708,0.361,-0.06,0.657 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.875,0.75,1.0,0.398,0.256,0.517 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.428,0.294,0.544 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.792,0.646,0.917,0.277,0.135,0.405 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.538,-2.236,-1.07 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.005,-0.94 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.39,-2.004,-0.94 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.904 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.301,-1.867,-0.874 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.323,-1.938,-0.909 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.226,-1.784,-0.822 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.09,-1.7,-0.688 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.118,-1.802,-0.69 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.093,-1.61,-0.713 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.058,-1.641,-0.667 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.027,-1.526,-0.668 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.05,-1.579,-0.686 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.312,0.167,0.458,-0.318,-0.612,-0.106 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.396,0.229,0.542,-0.146,-0.431,0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.375,0.208,0.583,0.025,-0.254,0.214 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.125,0.021,0.229,-0.839,-1.352,-0.475 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.589,-0.984,-0.317 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.25,0.083,0.417,-0.423,-0.781,-0.173 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.208,0.083,0.354,-0.383,-0.682,-0.157 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.479,0.292,0.667,0.369,-0.057,0.653 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.604,0.875,0.413,0.237,0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.875,0.708,1.0,0.442,0.271,0.571 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.605,-4.936,-1.437 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.384,-4.698,-1.224 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.297,-4.569,-1.178 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.273,-4.506,-1.145 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.178,-4.422,-1.073 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.042,0.0,0.125,-2.04,-4.217,-0.961 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.914,-4.006,-0.881 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.944,-4.004,-0.981 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.229,0.083,0.396,-0.983,-2.549,-0.278 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.271,0.104,0.458,-0.81,-2.272,-0.16 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.5,0.292,0.708,-0.564,-1.912,0.056 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.521,0.333,0.708,-0.586,-1.883,0.054 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Naive,0.667,0.5,0.833,0.02,-0.976,0.445 -AutoETS,Drift,0.708,0.542,0.875,0.064,-0.899,0.47 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.327,-4.403,-2.425 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.075,-4.234,-2.15 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.959,-4.08,-2.014 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.923,-4.014,-2.031 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.795,-3.832,-1.957 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.563,-3.533,-1.755 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.455,-3.414,-1.649 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.495,-3.377,-1.752 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.247,-1.812,-0.79 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.083,0.0,0.208,-0.954,-1.412,-0.605 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.125,0.0,0.25,-0.662,-1.07,-0.345 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.125,0.396,-0.705,-1.211,-0.31 -Naive,AutoETS,0.333,0.167,0.5,-0.02,-0.8,0.494 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.958,0.875,1.0,0.048,0.034,0.064 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.547,-4.693,-2.565 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.282,-4.507,-2.296 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.161,-4.336,-2.16 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-3.123,-4.25,-2.191 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.988,-4.069,-2.118 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.744,-3.775,-1.899 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.631,-3.629,-1.789 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.673,-3.602,-1.867 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.083,0.0,0.208,-1.362,-1.957,-0.894 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.042,0.0,0.125,-1.053,-1.524,-0.698 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.747,-1.191,-0.416 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.125,0.0,0.292,-0.791,-1.331,-0.372 -Drift,AutoETS,0.292,0.125,0.458,-0.068,-0.886,0.473 -Drift,Naive,0.042,0.0,0.125,-0.051,-0.069,-0.035 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv index 9981c80beae16e0be8fe13586ff06d9a450b152b..8f7351546ebab84378e837340587bc492bf57ea9 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.03361344537814,31.481794451725598,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.94957983193277,26.52900086602983,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,72.6890756302521,26.261371917757693,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.44537815126049,28.503438987326348,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.344537815126046,24.789294507776617,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,54.20168067226891,22.723384164617542,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,53.361344537815135,15.365311043980789,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,51.68067226890757,20.2421879515411,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,44.537815126050425,19.731530492164218,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,40.33613445378151,11.57581735742166,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,34.03361344537815,3.6737220914351054,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,34.033613445378144,7.803844369279123,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -Naive,31.722689075630246,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,31.722689075630246,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,18.907563025210084,-1.4487951551292788,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.35294117647058,31.481794532616647,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,75.58823529411765,26.888347680019187,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,75.0,26.529000829572613,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,70.58823529411767,26.2613718955641,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.58823529411764,31.327236702620056,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,62.941176470588246,24.789294465195354,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,56.1764705882353,22.50810792219715,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,53.235294117647044,20.323639513575344,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,52.64705882352943,19.060503607694656,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,52.35294117647058,15.365349853640797,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,52.05882352941177,19.424419840917306,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.76470588235294,19.73153058692736,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,42.35294117647059,11.575817377996056,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +TFT,39.705882352941174,11.478442698254343,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,38.23529411764706,9.328552794565127,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,35.882352941176464,7.8038443922430645,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,35.0,3.6737220568101803,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,31.76470588235294,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Naive,31.764705882352935,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,24.70588235294117,6.623132074170468,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,20.294117647058822,-1.4487951659928555,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv index 27d728683e0b48fa6482be99fc31082279545857..a0f8abcf1113b8cd69dba0d56b6bd2f7d2b7dc1d 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.07563025210085,43.08495823445069,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,81.5126050420168,39.40546078196011,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TiRex,77.7310924369748,38.66421195014754,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,68.4873949579832,37.8955057470284,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,66.80672268907564,40.4501363806809,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,59.66386554621849,35.084488727551175,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.663865546218474,33.816247574403114,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,49.99999999999999,26.73938046367741,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.17647058823529,17.165725601006145,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,40.33613445378151,-34.43610777026744,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,38.23529411764705,28.13662869222201,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,27.310924369747898,18.597473231459126,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.957983193277308,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.957983193277308,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,10.084033613445378,-0.43479898554135143,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.70588235294117,43.084958270862664,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,82.05882352941177,39.405460726883256,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,78.82352941176471,38.664211906090074,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,77.3529411764706,42.35612034793553,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,77.35294117647058,38.52365982502688,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,72.35294117647058,37.895505694084896,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,64.70588235294117,34.96939098084367,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.52941176470588,33.821929615033476,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,52.058823529411754,26.73938300302533,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +TFT,45.88235294117646,22.621784862461645,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,44.11764705882352,17.16572553901449,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,43.23529411764705,28.136628738197324,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,42.05882352941177,-34.43610797176,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,36.470588235294116,19.019958490681464,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,34.11764705882353,17.267343579809324,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,32.64705882352941,18.59747321381262,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,30.882352941176467,17.63932213207273,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,29.705882352941178,17.55615896535253,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,20.147058823529413,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.147058823529413,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.647058823529411,-0.4347989849139422,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index ce1c977feec822c8f89db6cd71bc4bd2963d901f..bccff613422a3bd10268d5be6b3fbf3a848da546 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,80.67226890756302,33.033168227019026,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,72.6890756302521,27.26832437632678,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,71.84873949579831,27.337795666708587,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,65.54621848739495,30.55368652274818,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.344537815126046,25.51157354409269,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,55.042016806722685,15.743089812031885,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,53.78151260504202,20.258967855985233,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,52.10084033613446,23.083039753958012,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Sundial-Base,45.79831932773109,19.8798541280895,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,43.27731092436974,10.432170599418688,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,36.134453781512605,8.27094240114572,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,36.1344537815126,7.846800330751369,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -Naive,28.361344537815125,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,28.361344537815125,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,18.90756302521008,-1.418173352182306,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,78.82352941176471,33.03316692519685,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.11764705882354,33.438886395349634,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,72.94117647058822,29.344351413797543,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.3529411764706,27.337794703817952,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,70.58823529411765,27.268322990213434,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,62.058823529411775,25.511572546660254,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,54.70588235294118,15.743427255370591,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,54.70588235294116,22.905411310963697,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,54.411764705882334,20.497180048122175,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,53.82352941176472,21.04711295786791,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,51.47058823529412,18.79828207637473,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.76470588235293,19.87985257056947,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,45.0,10.43217176176322,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +TFT,39.411764705882355,11.954978540056816,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,37.647058823529406,7.846798607353877,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,37.35294117647059,8.270941698425682,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,35.88235294117647,8.876970964384812,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +Naive,29.70588235294117,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,29.70588235294117,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,26.47058823529412,7.573422520076656,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,22.05882352941176,-1.4181754344372743,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv index ef6237b49da70b883ac2380d6e28803c3e46c870..baf69ea0a083ed54fc1fbd8d2d38f6138b0112f5 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.71428571428571,46.95158936276389,0.0,0.32956550214577657,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.63025210084034,41.67847001395525,0.0,0.12932927313725492,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.63025210084032,42.705288955262354,0.0,0.2144064880392157,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,70.58823529411764,41.418152536422134,0.0,0.12887287921568627,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,69.74789915966386,45.19356656769271,0.0,22.63179935822034,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,60.50420168067227,38.68049112544482,0.0,0.22658025411764707,0.11764705882352941,0.0 -Toto-1.0,59.2436974789916,37.025124965614744,0.0,5.434461828245326,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,50.84033613445379,28.908056466103393,0.0,25.918509003474572,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,42.85714285714285,31.75917388658207,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,41.17647058823529,23.59314903701112,0.0,3.3998517208296395,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,38.65546218487395,-38.47401258640348,0.0,0.47871178898305083,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,29.411764705882348,20.289228155537774,0.0,0.6619522274576272,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.697478991596633,0.0,0.0,0.2594528489051095,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.697478991596633,0.0,0.0,0.25224424306569343,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.605042016806726,-0.2604826926005721,0.0,0.253097096350365,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.3529411764706,46.95158936079286,0.0,0.3335885247615804,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,78.23529411764706,46.72017347554517,0.0,53.93700547485116,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,78.23529411764704,43.43301992727873,0.0,0.6791522460784314,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,77.64705882352942,42.70528893148189,0.0,0.21114962999999998,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +TiRex,76.17647058823532,41.67846999298524,0.0,0.1372293080392157,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,72.94117647058825,41.41815251527837,0.0,0.12552677156862746,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,65.88235294117646,38.60017726853074,0.0,0.2264706033333333,0.11764705882352941,0.0 +Toto-1.0,63.82352941176471,37.1406752463905,0.0,5.430547442486061,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,51.470588235294116,28.908180959678987,0.0,26.516437665338984,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,47.647058823529406,31.759173884046564,0.0,7.870155007102804,0.0,0.0 +TFT,43.823529411764696,25.177535871366572,191.6963338890511,0.1497769706240487,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,43.52941176470587,23.593149014732116,0.0,3.3903949554211525,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,40.294117647058826,-38.47401261888097,0.0,0.4592729738983051,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,35.882352941176464,22.612749623523154,0.25864546244670383,0.028219497457627123,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,35.0,20.408513143079997,7.425169413750001,0.0345105243220339,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,34.11764705882353,20.741160739642595,108.83663356934305,0.18933264557220708,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,33.23529411764706,20.28922812580427,0.0,0.6642809920338983,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,30.294117647058815,20.882679434165496,122.92824444355932,0.32974861398999994,0.0,0.0 +Naive,19.852941176470583,0.0,0.0,0.277928699270073,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.852941176470583,0.0,0.0,0.2615536627737226,0.0,0.0 +Drift,14.705882352941174,-0.2604826516168668,0.0,0.2592828416058394,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv index 9f4e37eed09cfe2dfc4644a81ba64f5c16149a02..59052ca6b9c3b632c25b2996f4b3737dd1e9d06f 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,-0.01,0.138 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.014,0.151 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.002,-0.06,0.068 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.071,0.014,0.137 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.042,-0.034,0.118 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.089,0.026,0.157 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.113,0.024,0.197 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.116,0.024,0.198 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.153,0.033,0.263 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.19,0.058,0.305 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.141,0.077,0.214 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.15,0.036,0.251 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.14,0.075,0.214 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.146,0.042,0.232 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.225,0.091,0.344 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.164,0.388 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.257,0.153,0.352 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.226,0.11,0.337 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.244,0.133,0.353 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.315,0.207,0.413 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.325,0.214,0.423 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.16,0.01 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.005,-0.031,0.04 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.065,-0.191,0.053 +FlowState,TiRex,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.009,-0.039,0.053 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.028,-0.02,0.073 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.057,-0.015,0.135 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.097,-0.022,0.216 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.136,-0.018,0.274 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.093,-0.019,0.204 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.082,-0.005,0.161 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.089,0.033,0.141 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.022,0.307 +FlowState,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.174,0.067,0.273 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.194,0.1,0.29 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.269,0.175,0.368 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.072,-0.177,0.014 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.005,-0.042,0.03 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.07,-0.208,0.041 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.004,-0.046,0.044 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.028,-0.168,0.084 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.023,-0.016,0.059 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.049,-0.007,0.105 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.528,0.882,0.052,-0.005,0.109 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.092,-0.018,0.194 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.528,0.941,0.132,-0.023,0.265 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.079,0.006,0.147 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.088,-0.016,0.183 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.078,0.004,0.146 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.085,0.022,0.133 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.169,0.019,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.237,0.105,0.358 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.101,0.303 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.17,0.065,0.26 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.19,0.107,0.278 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.265,0.17,0.36 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.276,0.17,0.371 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.002,-0.074,0.056 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.061,-0.056,0.16 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.065,-0.043,0.172 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.069,-0.018,0.161 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.087,-0.005,0.174 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.114,0.006,0.219 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.152,0.014,0.275 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.189,0.048,0.3 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.148,0.026,0.258 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.138,0.044,0.226 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.144,0.031,0.243 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.223,0.082,0.339 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.224,0.085,0.362 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.243,0.091,0.377 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.313,0.175,0.425 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.076,-0.158,-0.014 +TiRex,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.009,-0.056,0.037 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.004,-0.046,0.044 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.074,-0.191,0.018 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.031,-0.156,0.07 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.02,-0.019,0.053 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.046,0.001,0.092 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.048,0.003,0.097 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.089,-0.006,0.179 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.129,0.001,0.247 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.075,0.029,0.123 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.085,0.002,0.165 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.075,0.028,0.122 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.081,-0.002,0.15 TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.166,0.031,0.288 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.234,0.098,0.356 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.2,0.103,0.295 +TiRex,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.167,0.054,0.282 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.187,0.092,0.285 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367 -TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.263,0.158,0.367 -TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.175,0.367 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.043,-0.134,0.033 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.027,-0.091,0.144 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.03,-0.076,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.049,-0.057,0.149 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.075,-0.039,0.186 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.155,0.006,0.275 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.104,-0.001,0.207 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.109,0.003,0.207 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.191,0.047,0.312 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.258,0.09,0.383 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.225,0.096,0.333 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.285,0.141,0.403 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.295,0.151,0.414 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.098,-0.186,-0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.029,-0.078,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.024,-0.063,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.095,-0.21,0.005 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.02,-0.056,0.019 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.175,0.054 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.324,0.735,0.027,-0.023,0.093 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.324,0.735,0.029,-0.02,0.098 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.071,-0.033,0.181 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,-0.025,0.234 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.057,0.001,0.117 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.067,-0.036,0.168 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.056,-0.0,0.116 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.063,0.003,0.116 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.149,0.016,0.27 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.219,0.086,0.338 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.184,0.084,0.281 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.15,0.06,0.247 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.171,0.081,0.262 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.248,0.146,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.259,0.152,0.354 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.128,-0.245,-0.025 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.052,-0.117,0.007 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.048,-0.102,-0.001 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.081,-0.229,0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.265,0.676,-0.027,-0.103,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.131,-0.248,-0.025 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.06,-0.155,0.014 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.472,-0.055,-0.122,0.005 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.128,-0.28,-0.006 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.051,-0.107,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.265,0.676,-0.03,-0.108,0.02 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.087,-0.039,0.204 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.031,-0.022,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.037,-0.073,0.115 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.126,-0.009,0.247 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.198,0.043,0.332 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.162,0.065,0.256 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.227,0.117,0.329 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.238,0.143,0.326 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.043,-0.025,0.114 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.084,-0.044,0.203 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.038,-0.042,0.109 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.027,-0.028,0.085 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.035,-0.075,0.112 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.765,0.124,-0.014,0.245 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.125,-0.023,0.253 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.145,0.059,0.239 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.225,0.112,0.328 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.181,-0.357,-0.035 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.107,-0.276,0.022 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.102,-0.241,0.018 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.179,-0.379,-0.014 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.098,-0.218,0.006 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.076,-0.221,0.032 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.044,-0.128,0.025 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.044,-0.09,0.161 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.005,-0.075,0.049 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.016,-0.113,0.071 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.008,-0.176,0.121 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.085,-0.062,0.207 +CatBoost,TFT,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,-0.113,0.251 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.107,-0.015,0.222 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.191,0.06,0.306 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.235,-0.439,-0.061 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.158,-0.377,0.018 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.472,-0.152,-0.361,0.022 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.232,-0.429,-0.051 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.148,-0.328,-0.001 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.184,-0.38,-0.006 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.305,0.025 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.095,-0.256,0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.092,-0.255,0.042 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.046,-0.192,0.083 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.061,-0.186,0.046 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.05,-0.185,0.071 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.062,-0.187,0.045 Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.054,-0.255,0.114 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.043,0.009,0.076 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.121,-0.012,0.275 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.082,0.014,0.167 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.044,-0.163,0.223 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.067,-0.116,0.219 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.154,0.042,0.274 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.166,0.086,0.243 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.164,-0.272,-0.083 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.086,-0.172,-0.006 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.082,-0.14,-0.03 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.116,-0.261,0.001 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.06,-0.132,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.032,-0.095,0.022 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.048,0.157 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.176,-0.335,-0.037 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.102,-0.257,0.018 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.097,-0.225,0.016 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.173,-0.348,-0.027 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.093,-0.198,-0.002 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.071,-0.201,0.035 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.04,-0.122,0.04 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.004,-0.052,0.07 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.048,-0.077,0.156 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.011,-0.091,0.067 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.004,-0.162,0.123 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.089,-0.044,0.201 +LightGBM,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.09,-0.093,0.244 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.111,-0.008,0.22 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.194,0.076,0.3 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.273,-0.081 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.09,-0.193,0.005 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.084,-0.171,-0.004 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.16,-0.292,-0.047 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.081,-0.14,-0.029 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.059,-0.132,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.028,-0.093,0.027 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.016,-0.077,0.102 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.059,-0.047,0.157 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.011,-0.072,0.083 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.006,-0.108,0.103 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.098,-0.013,0.21 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.172,0.041,0.293 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.135,0.052,0.22 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.202,0.099,0.305 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.214,0.125,0.296 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.007,-0.107,0.103 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.099,-0.012,0.211 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.1,-0.027,0.224 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.121,0.024,0.218 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.099,0.306 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.171,-0.303,-0.044 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.098,-0.164,-0.034 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.093,-0.154,-0.023 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.169,-0.321,-0.032 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.177,0.002 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.123,-0.261,-0.003 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.067,-0.132,-0.003 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.129,0.068 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.036,-0.126,0.07 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.008,-0.137,0.15 Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.052,-0.129,0.203 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.006,-0.115,0.098 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.004,-0.141,0.139 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.007,-0.115,0.096 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.092,-0.08,0.24 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.167,0.001,0.308 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.129,-0.002,0.242 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.093,-0.009,0.186 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.115,0.002,0.227 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.197,0.082,0.298 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.209,0.078,0.323 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.291,-0.524,-0.1 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.209,-0.444,-0.022 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.204,-0.435,-0.019 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.288,-0.514,-0.09 AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.199,-0.405,-0.032 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.237,-0.454,-0.049 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.176,-0.37,-0.016 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.144,-0.328,0.009 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.412,0.235,0.647,-0.141,-0.325,0.014 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.092,-0.262,0.059 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.045,-0.082,-0.009 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.109,-0.266,0.013 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.097,-0.252,0.042 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.11,-0.267,0.012 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.102,-0.315,0.074 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.082,-0.066,0.241 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.041,-0.038,0.125 +AutoETS,TFT,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.198,0.178 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.025,-0.162,0.176 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232 -AutoETS,Naive,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.116,0.011,0.232 -AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.128,0.052,0.207 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.406,-0.633,-0.196 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.311,-0.557,-0.117 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.306,-0.553,-0.109 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.347,-0.621,-0.099 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.281,-0.511,-0.094 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.247,-0.498,-0.045 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.138,-0.379,0.012 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.208,-0.415,-0.043 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.2,-0.445,-0.001 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.089,-0.317,0.062 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.045,-0.204,0.064 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.037,-0.118,0.141 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.05,-0.122,0.172 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.346,-0.542,-0.181 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.255,-0.435,-0.112 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.25,-0.419,-0.115 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.29,-0.499,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.226,-0.391,-0.092 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.193,-0.345,-0.07 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.089,-0.2,-0.014 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.156,-0.282,-0.054 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.32,0.002 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.043,-0.143,0.036 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.043,-0.069,0.169 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,0.015,0.139 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.041,0.143 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.292,-0.509,-0.124 +TFT,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.211,-0.375,-0.072 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.205,-0.352,-0.07 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.289,-0.568,-0.093 +TFT,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.2,-0.394,-0.057 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.177,-0.329,-0.064 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.142,-0.339,0.023 +TFT,CatBoost,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.094,-0.335,0.101 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.046,-0.287,0.14 +TFT,LightGBM,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.099,-0.322,0.086 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.111,-0.288,0.027 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.103,-0.229,0.009 +TFT,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.217,0.165 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.441,0.235,0.647,0.024,-0.086,0.142 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.559,0.324,0.794,0.115,-0.002,0.231 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.323,-0.546,-0.154 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.24,-0.408,-0.112 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.234,-0.385,-0.12 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.32,-0.605,-0.1 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.23,-0.399,-0.102 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.206,-0.355,-0.089 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.17,-0.314,-0.063 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.12,-0.285,0.015 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.071,-0.28,0.104 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.125,-0.282,0.008 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.138,-0.278,-0.025 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.13,-0.293,-0.002 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.025,-0.213,0.139 +PatchTST,TFT,0.559,0.353,0.765,-0.024,-0.166,0.079 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.559,0.353,0.794,0.093,-0.027,0.206 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.368,-0.582,-0.212 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.456,-0.74,-0.213 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.29,-0.488,-0.126 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.235,-0.442,-0.063 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.241,-0.429,-0.082 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.441,-0.11 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.441,0.206,0.676,-0.13,-0.301,0.002 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.441,0.206,0.647,-0.103,-0.259,0.026 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.459,-0.705,-0.26 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.361,-0.563,-0.204 -Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.356,-0.579,-0.188 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.399,-0.675,-0.165 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.33,-0.521,-0.172 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.294,-0.489,-0.132 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.182,-0.377,-0.044 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.254,-0.439,-0.11 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.424,-0.09 -Naive,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.131,-0.302,-0.011 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.038,-0.164,0.105 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.085,-0.161,-0.015 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.014,-0.057,0.077 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.481,-0.733,-0.273 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.381,-0.589,-0.205 -Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.58,-0.212 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.419,-0.706,-0.178 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.349,-0.548,-0.18 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.313,-0.485,-0.166 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.199,-0.321,-0.094 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.272,-0.421,-0.143 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.264,-0.478,-0.085 -Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.147,-0.262,-0.055 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.053,-0.208,0.109 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.167,-0.043 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054 -Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.014,-0.084,0.054 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv index 4db239384c2369277961057c72489edd8a273e78..e00cc2af184ffc34d77eb2b36c383baa1374f5f0 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.061,-0.011,0.135 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.072,0.024,0.128 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.074,0.006,0.138 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.013,-0.036,0.062 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.084,0.024,0.141 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.044,-0.015,0.106 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.125,0.042,0.201 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.14,0.075,0.214 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.123,0.039,0.2 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.33 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.313,0.185,0.417 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.264,0.139,0.378 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.547,0.245,0.764 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.313,0.185,0.417 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.208,0.107,0.287 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.301,0.201,0.393 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.297,0.186,0.404 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.312,0.208,0.406 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.431,0.319,0.527 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.433,0.322,0.528 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.065,-0.157,0.011 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.012,-0.027,0.046 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.014,-0.019,0.049 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.051,-0.168,0.039 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.5,0.912,0.024,-0.016,0.062 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.018,-0.134,0.078 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.084,0.01,0.153 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.067,0.011,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.068,0.012,0.126 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.084,0.01,0.154 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.173,0.029,0.303 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.136,0.394 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.217,0.115,0.307 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.519,0.197,0.751 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.136,0.394 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.157,0.099,0.203 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.256,0.153,0.356 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.252,0.165,0.335 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.268,0.174,0.357 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.394,0.295,0.487 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.397,0.29,0.494 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.078,-0.147,-0.025 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.012,-0.048,0.026 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.002,-0.035,0.042 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.064,-0.167,0.016 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.012,-0.027,0.045 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.03,-0.14,0.061 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.073,0.02,0.129 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.055,0.006,0.109 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.057,0.007,0.111 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.073,0.021,0.129 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.163,0.042,0.281 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.26,0.125,0.379 +TiRex,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.207,0.093,0.314 TiRex,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.515,0.198,0.749 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.26,0.125,0.379 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.146,0.07,0.209 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.247,0.147,0.343 +TiRex,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.243,0.154,0.333 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.259,0.168,0.341 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.387,0.279,0.482 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.389,0.281,0.484 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.08,-0.16,-0.006 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.015,-0.052,0.019 +FlowState,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.002,-0.043,0.034 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.066,-0.179,0.032 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.01,-0.044,0.062 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.055,-0.018,0.13 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.071,-0.019,0.152 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.161,0.013,0.292 +FlowState,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.206,0.091,0.306 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.512,0.187,0.75 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.258,0.108,0.381 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.145,0.083,0.199 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.241,0.147,0.333 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.257,0.15,0.361 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.385,0.279,0.479 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.013,-0.066,0.034 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.049,-0.04,0.144 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.06,-0.016,0.143 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.062,-0.033,0.152 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.072,-0.002,0.152 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.114,0.017,0.21 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.129,0.042,0.219 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.213,0.083,0.317 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.255,0.121,0.38 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.542,0.226,0.762 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.304,0.161,0.421 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.198,0.101,0.286 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.288,0.15,0.408 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.303,0.188,0.409 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.424,0.304,0.525 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.091,-0.164,-0.025 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.088,0.5,-0.025,-0.066,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.013,-0.047,0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.01,-0.066,0.042 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.077,-0.179,0.002 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.043,-0.144,0.047 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,0.001,0.127 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.043,-0.008,0.116 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.045,-0.006,0.118 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,0.001,0.126 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.152,0.031,0.269 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.25,0.113,0.373 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.197,0.098,0.291 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.511,0.189,0.746 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.25,0.113,0.373 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.136,0.078,0.191 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.237,0.137,0.329 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.233,0.143,0.323 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.249,0.157,0.346 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.275,0.468 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.278,0.477 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.046,-0.119,0.015 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.017,-0.085,0.118 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.029,-0.065,0.123 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.041,-0.049,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.1,0.003,0.193 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.083,-0.022,0.187 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.187,0.056,0.297 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.281,0.126,0.401 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.527,0.21,0.753 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.171,0.074,0.257 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.161,0.361 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.405,0.276,0.506 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.407,0.28,0.518 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.272,-0.082 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.143,-0.252,-0.044 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.073,-0.144,-0.012 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.06,-0.125,-0.007 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.058,-0.15,0.018 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.128,-0.267,-0.017 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.047,-0.134,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.017,-0.04,0.074 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.112,-0.015,0.232 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.16,0.007,0.281 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.491,0.146,0.742 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.215,0.052,0.354 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.095,-0.013,0.173 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.109,0.286 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.214,0.143,0.28 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.35,0.225,0.453 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.163,-0.272,-0.081 Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.092,-0.181,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.147,-0.021 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.145,-0.001 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.111,-0.239,-0.003 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.079,-0.148,-0.021 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.076,-0.179,0.019 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.148,-0.28,-0.043 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.144,-0.001 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.08,0.039 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.02,-0.081,0.035 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.097,0.004,0.19 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.201,0.063,0.334 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.825,0.097,0.005,0.19 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.145,0.013,0.27 Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.484,0.142,0.738 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.201,0.062,0.335 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.079,-0.03,0.175 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.187,0.1,0.277 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.183,0.082,0.279 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.2,0.123,0.272 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.338,0.23,0.436 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.341,0.244,0.429 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.141,-0.249,-0.04 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.071,-0.142,-0.011 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.058,-0.123,-0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.045,-0.131,0.008 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.09,-0.231,0.021 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.019,-0.036,0.075 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.114,-0.014,0.233 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.216,0.053,0.355 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.492,0.147,0.742 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.097,-0.012,0.174 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.203,0.099,0.303 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.351,0.227,0.454 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.354,0.239,0.452 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.287,-0.493,-0.114 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.209,-0.435,-0.03 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.194,-0.391,-0.044 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.192,-0.413,-0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.271,-0.463,-0.09 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.18,-0.367,-0.032 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.23,-0.422,-0.06 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.107,-0.235,-0.004 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.129,-0.304,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.127,-0.303,0.015 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.175,0.588,-0.107,-0.234,-0.005 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.022,0.273 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.053,-0.143,0.226 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.438,0.038,0.713 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.022,0.273 Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.019,-0.221,0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.1,0.028,0.186 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.095,-0.087,0.243 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.114,-0.021,0.231 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.267,0.141,0.378 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.271,0.171,0.359 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.455,-0.716,-0.227 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.65,-0.157 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.351,-0.61,-0.143 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.334,-0.595,-0.128 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.391,-0.67,-0.144 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.252,-0.502,-0.067 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.276,-0.551,-0.056 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.376,0.022 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.358,-0.097,0.681 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.153,-0.417,0.05 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,-0.018,-0.19,0.101 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.175,-0.025,0.321 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.36,-0.607,-0.162 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.277,-0.443,-0.13 +TFT,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.262,-0.458,-0.103 +TFT,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.259,-0.442,-0.1 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.342,-0.613,-0.138 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.246,-0.41,-0.109 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.19,-0.39,-0.007 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.169,-0.371,-0.013 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.056,-0.292,0.125 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.402,-0.044,0.702 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.066,-0.069,0.195 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.077,-0.208,0.046 +TFT,PatchTST,0.5,0.265,0.735,0.044,-0.072,0.17 +TFT,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.065,-0.152,0.239 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.226,0.098,0.341 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-1.208,-3.239,-0.325 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.08,-3.015,-0.246 AutoETS,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.06,-2.983,-0.248 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.048,-3.003,-0.229 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-1.183,-3.194,-0.293 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.045,-2.936,-0.233 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-1.113,-3.044,-0.267 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.937,-2.814,-0.166 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.967,-2.881,-0.173 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.963,-2.881,-0.171 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.937,-2.815,-0.166 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.78,-2.483,-0.04 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.558,-2.133,0.088 +AutoETS,TFT,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.672,-2.355,0.042 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.558,-2.133,0.088 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.776,-2.496,-0.056 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.62,-2.269,0.042 +AutoETS,PatchTST,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.645,-2.31,0.031 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.577,-2.205,0.085 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201 -AutoETS,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.344,-1.76,0.201 -AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.347,-1.747,0.191 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.455,-0.716,-0.227 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.65,-0.157 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.351,-0.61,-0.143 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.347,-0.616,-0.122 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.437,-0.728,-0.192 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.334,-0.595,-0.128 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.274,-0.547,-0.055 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.252,-0.503,-0.066 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.376,0.022 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.071,-0.243,0.065 +AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.358,-0.097,0.681 +AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.153,-0.417,0.05 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.023,-0.262,0.148 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.001,-0.25,0.189 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.172,-0.011,0.302 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.263,-0.402,-0.12 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.186,-0.255,-0.109 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.172,-0.265,-0.075 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.169,-0.249,-0.091 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.247,-0.401,-0.113 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.157,-0.236,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.207,-0.346,-0.08 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.086,-0.211,0.029 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.107,-0.211,0.012 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.105,-0.209,0.013 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.086,-0.212,0.029 Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.019,-0.168,0.181 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.132,-0.052,0.294 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.071,-0.048,0.172 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.437,0.053,0.714 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.132,-0.052,0.294 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.117,-0.014,0.233 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.113,-0.007,0.228 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.131,-0.008,0.263 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.281,0.162,0.385 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.284,0.14,0.401 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.43,-0.647,-0.251 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.343,-0.553,-0.181 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.327,-0.523,-0.172 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.311,-0.49,-0.159 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.565,-0.192 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.23,-0.383,-0.111 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.254,-0.434,-0.109 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.111,-0.229,-0.029 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,0.017,-0.112,0.159 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.383,-0.044,0.694 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.133,-0.304,0.014 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.186,0.095,0.268 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.189,0.096,0.275 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.423,-0.679,-0.228 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.336,-0.503,-0.198 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.32,-0.5,-0.182 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.317,-0.5,-0.172 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.405,-0.69,-0.177 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.304,-0.476,-0.166 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.401,-0.122 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.224,-0.386,-0.089 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.105,-0.322,0.08 +PatchTST,TFT,0.5,0.265,0.735,-0.047,-0.205,0.067 +PatchTST,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.392,-0.032,0.698 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.022,-0.173,0.208 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.127,-0.295,0.007 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.021,-0.132,0.161 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.19,0.054,0.315 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.454,-0.685,-0.263 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.365,-0.556,-0.21 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.349,-0.517,-0.201 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.346,-0.564,-0.176 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.435,-0.692,-0.232 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.332,-0.53,-0.187 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.272,-0.388,-0.167 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.25,-0.373,-0.14 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.129,-0.301,0.02 +CatBoost,TFT,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.069,-0.313,0.132 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.366,-0.093,0.688 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.001,-0.234,0.2 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.151,-0.357,0.007 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.022,-0.191,0.117 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.173,0.008,0.301 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.627,-0.92,-0.387 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.735,-1.104,-0.437 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.538,-0.829,-0.291 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.774,-0.298 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.292,-0.518,-0.108 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.235,-0.459,-0.057 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.209,-0.43,-0.008 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.757,-1.115,-0.468 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.65,-0.948,-0.418 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.63,-0.931,-0.386 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.61,-0.881,-0.379 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.679,-1.026,-0.381 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.511,-0.773,-0.299 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.54,-0.831,-0.293 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.365,-0.608,-0.165 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.207,-0.432,0.011 -Naive,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.256,-0.252,0.638 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.392,-0.627,-0.194 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.228,-0.365,-0.105 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.004,-0.062,0.061 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.765,-1.118,-0.476 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.657,-0.977,-0.407 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.637,-0.937,-0.391 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.617,-0.911,-0.385 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.687,-1.076,-0.389 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.518,-0.75,-0.322 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.547,-0.824,-0.314 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.371,-0.559,-0.206 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.212,-0.472,0.024 -Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.257,-0.236,0.636 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.398,-0.669,-0.163 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.234,-0.379,-0.107 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058 -Drift,Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.004,-0.065,0.058 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 57b65d5643da627470c5fa373f7e3cf2328e6395..168951a288c976c7bb0c31ebb2b7a00784130932 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.079,0.01,0.153 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.006,-0.047,0.035 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.052,-0.055,0.146 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.078,-0.026,0.172 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.036,-0.025,0.098 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.079,0.01,0.153 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,0.008,0.183 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.131,0.028,0.219 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.152,0.03,0.259 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.205,0.042,0.342 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.16,0.091,0.233 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.129,0.027,0.216 -Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.164,0.033,0.263 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.158,0.089,0.232 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.175,0.072,0.274 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.252,0.076,0.401 +Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.164,0.033,0.263 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.239,0.106,0.368 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.377 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.27,0.125,0.39 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.33,0.175,0.45 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.34,0.195,0.456 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.086,-0.181,-0.01 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.047,0.039 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.047,-0.172,0.047 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.024,-0.025,0.068 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,-0.009,0.28 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.088,0.031,0.14 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.054,-0.002,0.105 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.092,-0.002,0.161 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.188,0.025,0.349 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.211,0.096,0.313 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.207,0.08,0.327 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 -TiRex,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 -TiRex,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.283,0.156,0.394 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.006,-0.036,0.045 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.062,0.167 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.084,-0.018,0.193 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.085,-0.005,0.178 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.106,0.009,0.206 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.137,0.032,0.243 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.157,0.028,0.271 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.21,0.051,0.345 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.163,0.076,0.254 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.18,0.068,0.289 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.257,0.079,0.403 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.169,0.049,0.268 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.244,0.104,0.379 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.278,0.158,0.377 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.334,0.18,0.452 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.055,-0.17,0.052 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.062,-0.201,0.058 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.028,-0.015,0.073 +FlowState,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.029,-0.02,0.085 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.051,-0.011,0.111 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.084,0.01,0.168 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.105,-0.004,0.212 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.161,-0.003,0.308 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.111,0.017,0.202 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.13,0.02,0.238 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.211,0.039,0.37 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.118,0.054,0.184 +FlowState,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.198,0.076,0.31 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.233,0.094,0.344 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.293,0.17,0.407 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.085,-0.208,0.026 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.041,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.092,-0.24,0.018 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.028,-0.079,0.014 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.046,-0.183,0.057 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.001,-0.041,0.045 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.025,-0.018,0.07 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.057,-0.011,0.119 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.08,-0.027,0.177 TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.138,-0.021,0.285 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.089,0.007,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.055,-0.013,0.117 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.093,0.028,0.144 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.086,0.004,0.159 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.105,0.009,0.198 TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.189,0.018,0.35 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.093,0.028,0.144 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.175,0.068,0.275 TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.212,0.092,0.312 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.208,0.092,0.326 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.157,0.383 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.284,0.162,0.394 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.037,-0.108,0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.045,-0.05,0.147 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.044,-0.06,0.154 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.068,-0.029,0.172 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.176,0.009,0.315 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.129,0.034,0.228 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.097,-0.023,0.211 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.133,0.027,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.225,0.045,0.374 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.246,0.126,0.342 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.243,0.106,0.362 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.306,0.156,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.306,0.156,0.418 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.315,0.168,0.437 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.086,-0.181,-0.01 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.093,-0.216,0.005 +TiRex,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.029,-0.093,0.02 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.001,-0.047,0.039 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.024,-0.025,0.068 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.057,-0.002,0.108 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.079,-0.013,0.164 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,-0.009,0.28 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.085,0.029,0.137 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.104,0.024,0.189 +TiRex,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.188,0.025,0.349 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.092,-0.002,0.161 +TiRex,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.174,0.056,0.289 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.211,0.096,0.313 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.273,0.141,0.389 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.112,-0.225,-0.008 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.073,0.024 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.119,-0.26,-0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.054,-0.125,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.025,-0.075,0.018 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.073,-0.208,0.028 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.024,-0.073,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.034,-0.031,0.104 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.057,-0.048,0.155 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,-0.03,0.257 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.066,0.005,0.131 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.588,0.382,0.794,0.032,-0.033,0.1 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.07,0.007,0.125 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.063,0.002,0.127 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.083,-0.026,0.185 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.168,0.007,0.325 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.07,0.007,0.125 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.154,0.061,0.252 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.646,1.0,0.192,0.082,0.289 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.188,0.071,0.302 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.255,0.129,0.366 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.266,0.142,0.372 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.151,-0.28,-0.028 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.158,-0.321,-0.033 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.091,-0.201,-0.01 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.061,-0.136,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.06,-0.121,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.035,-0.116,0.03 +Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.024,-0.055,0.097 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.085,-0.051,0.217 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.03,-0.032,0.091 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.051,-0.024,0.122 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.139,-0.019,0.286 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.038,-0.08,0.127 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.124,-0.029,0.262 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.163,0.032,0.281 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.229,0.09,0.358 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.179,-0.349,-0.031 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.186,-0.371,-0.028 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.117,-0.27,0.004 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.087,-0.216,0.027 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.086,-0.197,0.013 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.06,-0.184,0.045 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.024,-0.107,0.052 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.063,-0.061,0.179 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.007,-0.075,0.086 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.028,-0.02,0.087 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.119,-0.029,0.257 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.015,-0.147,0.143 +LightGBM,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.103,-0.079,0.258 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.143,0.005,0.263 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.21,0.078,0.327 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.258,-0.521,-0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.158,-0.389,0.009 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.266,-0.526,-0.054 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.192,-0.446,0.003 Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.16,-0.399,0.02 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.213,-0.459,-0.009 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.158,-0.389,0.009 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.346,0.029 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.093,-0.277,0.049 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.067,-0.218,0.057 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.057,-0.228,0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.095,-0.28,0.047 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.052,-0.265,0.121 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.06,-0.229,0.073 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.038,-0.2,0.093 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.059,0.01,0.119 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.086,-0.015,0.202 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.081,0.016,0.167 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.048,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.048,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.169,0.092,0.247 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.191,-0.305,-0.1 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.096,-0.162,-0.032 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.097,-0.192,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.148,-0.295,-0.035 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.071,-0.15,-0.005 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.054,-0.085,0.186 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.052,-0.265,0.121 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.043,-0.193,0.229 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.086,-0.015,0.203 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.157,0.049,0.277 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.187,-0.303,-0.097 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.194,-0.34,-0.082 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.125,-0.253,-0.017 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.094,-0.188,-0.004 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.093,-0.159,-0.03 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.067,-0.146,-0.002 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.031,-0.1,0.031 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.007,-0.094,0.07 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.056,-0.078,0.186 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.037,-0.109,0.027 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.005,-0.124,0.108 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.11,-0.051,0.257 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.135,0.04,0.231 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.131,0.002,0.237 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.203,0.059,0.321 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.203,0.059,0.321 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.214,0.085,0.322 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.149,-0.276,-0.028 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.058,-0.117,0.002 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.059,-0.133,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.108,-0.267,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.412,0.206,0.618,-0.033,-0.111,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.087,-0.049,0.219 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.035,-0.028,0.098 -Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.04,-0.075,0.129 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.141,-0.014,0.287 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.165,0.035,0.283 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.161,0.04,0.278 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.231,0.095,0.358 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.231,0.095,0.358 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.242,0.121,0.352 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.196,-0.356,-0.034 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.102,-0.192,0.002 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.103,-0.168,-0.029 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.154,-0.307,-0.027 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.076,-0.143,-0.007 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.049,-0.137,0.209 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.005,-0.121,0.11 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.042,-0.148,0.07 -Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.105,-0.087,0.272 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.131,-0.011,0.246 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.127,-0.006,0.254 -Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.199,0.069,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.199,0.069,0.311 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.21,0.069,0.34 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.021,-0.05,0.095 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.112,-0.046,0.257 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.008,-0.12,0.112 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.097,-0.036,0.224 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,0.042,0.234 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.205,0.064,0.323 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.213,-0.377,-0.077 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.22,-0.407,-0.073 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.149,-0.313,-0.02 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.118,-0.247,-0.009 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.116,-0.233,-0.024 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.09,-0.227,0.026 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.053,-0.139,0.024 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.028,-0.096,0.02 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.036,-0.103,0.167 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.021,-0.105,0.048 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.093,-0.078,0.244 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.013,-0.178,0.12 +CatBoost,TFT,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.078,-0.119,0.236 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.119,-0.024,0.238 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.188,0.027,0.325 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.337,-0.668,-0.083 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.231,-0.536,-0.025 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.346,-0.676,-0.086 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.268,-0.587,-0.041 AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.233,-0.539,-0.018 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.29,-0.597,-0.047 +AutoETS,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.231,-0.536,-0.025 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.202,-0.482,-0.007 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.162,-0.4,0.019 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.134,-0.347,0.028 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.063,-0.134,-0.01 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.123,-0.345,0.049 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.164,-0.403,0.014 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.118,-0.373,0.08 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.127,-0.345,0.044 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.103,-0.324,0.072 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.118,-0.373,0.08 +AutoETS,TFT,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.017,-0.273,0.188 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.028,-0.117,0.166 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.024,-0.083,0.123 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.104,-0.022,0.236 -AutoETS,Naive,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.104,-0.022,0.236 -AutoETS,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.117,0.025,0.207 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.196,-0.356,-0.034 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.204,-0.366,-0.052 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.134,-0.225,-0.057 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.103,-0.168,-0.029 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.102,-0.192,0.002 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.076,-0.143,-0.007 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.039,-0.145,0.074 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.015,-0.167,0.128 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.049,-0.137,0.209 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.008,-0.126,0.107 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.013,-0.137,0.151 +Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.105,-0.087,0.272 +Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.09,-0.014,0.185 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.131,-0.011,0.246 +Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.199,0.069,0.311 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.315,-0.581,-0.118 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.323,-0.609,-0.116 +TFT,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.246,-0.45,-0.082 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.212,-0.379,-0.073 +TFT,TiRex,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.211,-0.407,-0.059 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.182,-0.338,-0.065 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.142,-0.355,0.028 +TFT,LightGBM,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.115,-0.348,0.074 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.045,-0.298,0.162 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.107,-0.288,0.035 +TFT,CatBoost,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.084,-0.31,0.106 +TFT,AutoETS,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.017,-0.232,0.214 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.099,-0.227,0.013 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.045,-0.088,0.166 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.559,0.324,0.794,0.12,-0.033,0.252 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.604,-0.186 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.267,-0.455,-0.106 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.384,-0.606,-0.187 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.304,-0.524,-0.104 AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.268,-0.454,-0.101 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.327,-0.521,-0.144 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.267,-0.455,-0.106 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.354,-0.237,-0.407,-0.089 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.195,-0.39,-0.033 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.167,-0.357,-0.005 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.094,-0.254,0.015 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.156,-0.3,-0.041 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.198,-0.394,-0.036 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.15,-0.326,0.011 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.159,-0.306,-0.044 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.135,-0.312,0.023 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.029,-0.199,0.105 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.15,-0.326,0.011 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.047,-0.199,0.081 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.005,-0.106,0.067 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.04,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.078,-0.04,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.091,-0.023,0.183 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.37,-0.64,-0.144 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.261,-0.485,-0.087 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.262,-0.483,-0.101 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.321,-0.569,-0.119 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.231,-0.433,-0.076 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.089,-0.2,-0.016 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.15,-0.311,-0.002 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.193,-0.385,-0.041 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.145,-0.341,0.006 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.024,-0.14,0.077 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.005,-0.072,0.096 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,0.013,0.148 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.083,0.013,0.148 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.096,0.044,0.148 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.502,-0.826,-0.219 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.415,-0.685,-0.205 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.621,-0.186 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.44,-0.719,-0.185 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.297,-0.559,-0.099 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.267,-0.485,-0.085 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.187,-0.383,-0.051 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.254,-0.474,-0.063 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.3,-0.559,-0.105 -Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.248,-0.45,-0.074 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.258,-0.476,-0.068 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.232,-0.482,-0.028 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.116,-0.309,0.022 +Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.248,-0.45,-0.074 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.441,0.206,0.676,-0.136,-0.337,0.032 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.193,0.039 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.174,-0.013 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.014,-0.061,0.08 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.493,-0.817,-0.213 -Naive,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.375,-0.636,-0.164 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.376,-0.621,-0.186 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.44,-0.719,-0.185 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.342,-0.578,-0.148 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.187,-0.383,-0.051 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.254,-0.474,-0.063 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.3,-0.559,-0.105 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.248,-0.45,-0.074 -Naive,AutoETS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.116,-0.309,0.022 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.193,0.039 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.09,-0.174,-0.013 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.014,-0.061,0.08 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.514,-0.837,-0.243 -Drift,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.394,-0.65,-0.185 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.396,-0.65,-0.194 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.46,-0.777,-0.203 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.362,-0.593,-0.165 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.204,-0.328,-0.102 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.272,-0.474,-0.093 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.319,-0.542,-0.138 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.266,-0.515,-0.074 -Drift,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.132,-0.26,-0.025 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.101,-0.224,0.022 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.106,-0.174,-0.046 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.014,-0.087,0.057 -Drift,Naive,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.014,-0.087,0.057 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv index 2cc1218c6177acc4694f642de538a7efa6cb184d..3d5fbb954dff3d976043bc7b274ff39dd4e6318a 100644 --- a/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/frequency_weekly/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,-0.013,0.155 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.004,-0.042,0.052 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.062,-0.033,0.139 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.09,0.029,0.154 +Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,-0.013,0.155 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.094,0.007,0.17 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.032,-0.019,0.085 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.135,0.041,0.217 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.158,0.087,0.23 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.136,0.042,0.219 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.156,0.083,0.229 Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.254,0.121,0.374 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.223,0.102,0.311 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.291,0.16,0.412 Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.306,0.193,0.402 Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.583,0.277,0.786 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.334,0.21,0.443 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.315,0.216,0.407 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.333,0.248,0.419 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.47,0.339,0.574 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.471,0.345,0.573 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.183,0.013 -TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.022,-0.021,0.069 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.045,-0.165,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.066,0.003,0.129 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.09,0.009,0.166 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.194,0.052,0.328 -TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.16,0.096,0.212 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.25,0.13,0.351 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.552,0.23,0.773 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.281,0.166,0.396 -TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.429,0.318,0.531 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.004,-0.055,0.041 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.058,-0.051,0.154 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.086,0.006,0.171 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.07,-0.02,0.164 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.091,0.001,0.184 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.132,0.025,0.236 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.152,0.057,0.243 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.251,0.112,0.368 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.219,0.106,0.311 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.288,0.153,0.409 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.303,0.19,0.389 +TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.582,0.263,0.79 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.202,0.412 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.331,0.233,0.424 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.467,0.343,0.569 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.066,-0.162,0.032 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.062,-0.182,0.049 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TiRex,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.03,-0.018,0.087 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.013,-0.031,0.055 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.034,-0.042,0.103 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.079,0.003,0.164 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.1,-0.001,0.196 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.204,0.049,0.347 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.171,0.103,0.237 +FlowState,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.244,0.114,0.354 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.26,0.121,0.369 +FlowState,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.557,0.246,0.776 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.269,0.169,0.362 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.289,0.19,0.383 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.434,0.317,0.535 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.099,-0.182,-0.03 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.095,-0.206,-0.006 +TiRex,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.031,-0.095,0.018 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.018,-0.058,0.013 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.004,-0.049,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.064,-0.173,0.025 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.049,-0.016,0.111 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.074,0.012,0.134 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.587,0.941,0.05,-0.016,0.112 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.072,0.01,0.134 TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.18,0.039,0.314 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.145,0.058,0.21 +TiRex,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.221,0.111,0.324 TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.237,0.118,0.336 TiRex,AutoETS,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.546,0.218,0.771 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.268,0.157,0.384 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.246,0.155,0.332 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.267,0.185,0.349 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 -TiRex,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.417,0.297,0.517 -TiRex,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.418,0.302,0.522 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.183,0.013 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.075,-0.197,0.02 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.013,-0.059,0.03 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.018,-0.013,0.055 +TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.647,0.441,0.853,0.022,-0.021,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.588,0.941,0.067,0.003,0.131 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.706,0.529,0.941,0.089,0.008,0.164 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.194,0.052,0.328 +TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.16,0.096,0.212 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.234,0.126,0.33 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.25,0.13,0.351 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.552,0.23,0.773 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.26,0.169,0.346 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.28,0.195,0.362 +TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.427,0.32,0.524 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.104,-0.205,-0.007 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.1,-0.225,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.036,-0.115,0.04 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.004,-0.052,0.047 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.353,0.147,0.559,-0.022,-0.074,0.02 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.069,-0.189,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.045,-0.019,0.121 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.07,0.004,0.14 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.853,0.046,-0.017,0.122 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.068,0.003,0.137 Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.046,0.302 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.142,0.079,0.197 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.824,0.588,1.0,0.217,0.115,0.31 Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.233,0.12,0.33 Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.547,0.218,0.773 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.265,0.158,0.37 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.243,0.152,0.332 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.264,0.169,0.355 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.414,0.309,0.505 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.416,0.311,0.512 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.033,-0.093,0.019 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.043,-0.05,0.142 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.06,-0.026,0.148 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.064,-0.027,0.159 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.106,-0.008,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.13,0.035,0.223 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.229,0.083,0.352 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.197,0.086,0.291 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.283,0.174,0.367 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.57,0.25,0.783 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.312,0.194,0.414 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.452,0.325,0.553 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.453,0.326,0.558 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.156,-0.277,-0.042 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.07,-0.148,-0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.051,-0.125,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.047,-0.138,0.018 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.119,-0.272,0.008 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.157,-0.28,-0.043 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.152,-0.31,-0.026 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.085,-0.196,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.413,-0.053,-0.127,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.072,-0.15,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.147,0.588,-0.048,-0.139,0.017 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.026,-0.034,0.083 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.137,0.008,0.263 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.101,-0.014,0.191 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.197,0.061,0.317 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.528,0.182,0.766 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.824,0.647,0.941,0.231,0.116,0.341 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.387,0.259,0.495 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.388,0.271,0.491 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.187,-0.299,-0.095 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.099,-0.199,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.08,-0.154,-0.012 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.075,-0.162,-0.004 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.149,-0.287,-0.036 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.027,-0.091,0.033 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.647,0.412,0.824,0.023,-0.038,0.079 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.136,0.007,0.263 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.1,-0.015,0.189 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.179,0.022,0.307 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.196,0.06,0.317 +Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.528,0.181,0.765 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.207,0.136,0.271 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.229,0.161,0.293 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.386,0.258,0.495 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.185,-0.298,-0.091 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.18,-0.321,-0.06 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.412,-0.111,-0.244,0.001 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.078,-0.154,-0.01 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.294,0.059,0.471,-0.097,-0.196,-0.008 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.073,-0.159,-0.003 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.353,0.176,0.588,-0.024,-0.085,0.036 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.114,0.007,0.225 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.077,-0.049,0.18 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.176,0.076,0.271 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.518,0.172,0.758 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.21,0.105,0.308 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.37,0.244,0.475 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.372,0.261,0.465 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.116,0.012,0.226 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.079,-0.042,0.181 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.16,0.022,0.284 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.177,0.077,0.274 +Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.519,0.175,0.758 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.188,0.118,0.252 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.21,0.151,0.276 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.371,0.247,0.476 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.34,-0.597,-0.138 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.241,-0.488,-0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.334,-0.582,-0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.257,-0.532,-0.051 Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.219,-0.459,-0.041 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.241,-0.488,-0.055 Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.214,-0.433,-0.048 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.297,-0.543,-0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.159,-0.358,-0.008 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.129,-0.291,-0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.158,-0.358,-0.007 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.131,-0.292,-0.012 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.042,-0.256,0.132 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.05,-0.178,0.231 Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.07,-0.035,0.195 Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.706,0.471,0.884,0.467,0.051,0.734 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.108,0.041,0.196 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.081,-0.051,0.197 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.107,-0.035,0.229 Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.289,0.169,0.395 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.941,0.824,1.0,0.291,0.192,0.377 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.286,-0.452,-0.114 -Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.191,-0.269,-0.106 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.281,-0.451,-0.119 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.206,-0.31,-0.114 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.17,-0.266,-0.062 +Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.191,-0.269,-0.106 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.165,-0.245,-0.086 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.245,-0.41,-0.094 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.113,-0.236,0.014 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.084,-0.22,0.047 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.111,-0.232,0.015 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.086,-0.22,0.04 Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.04,-0.152,0.204 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.088,-0.033,0.194 Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.706,0.471,0.941,0.107,-0.056,0.237 Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.647,0.412,0.882,0.475,0.09,0.736 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.144,0.008,0.266 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.118,-0.026,0.248 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.143,-0.001,0.275 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.824,0.647,0.943,0.318,0.194,0.423 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.319,0.181,0.442 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.41,-0.701,-0.191 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.404,-0.691,-0.18 +TFT,FlowState,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.323,-0.547,-0.128 +TFT,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.283,-0.478,-0.124 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.306,-0.494,-0.144 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.412,-0.277,-0.449,-0.13 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.219,-0.444,-0.023 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.19,-0.397,-0.023 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.052,-0.301,0.151 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.096,-0.241,0.032 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,0.021,-0.115,0.151 +TFT,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.434,-0.024,0.724 +TFT,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.033,-0.174,0.216 +TFT,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.06,-0.158,0.241 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.252,0.099,0.378 AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.44,-0.673,-0.239 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.334,-0.542,-0.149 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.434,-0.637,-0.235 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.351,-0.585,-0.138 AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.31,-0.505,-0.134 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.334,-0.542,-0.149 AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.304,-0.493,-0.136 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.394,-0.58,-0.21 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.246,-0.465,-0.065 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.213,-0.372,-0.082 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.244,-0.465,-0.063 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.216,-0.377,-0.083 AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.075,-0.242,0.034 AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.059,0.529,-0.12,-0.31,0.053 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.588,0.353,0.824,-0.021,-0.177,0.103 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.42,-0.002,0.715 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.041,-0.062,0.118 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.588,0.353,0.824,0.013,-0.176,0.165 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.04,-0.137,0.184 AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.236,0.096,0.346 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.882,0.706,1.0,0.238,0.1,0.354 AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.4,-3.668,-0.383 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.233,-3.406,-0.299 +AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.391,-3.76,-0.357 +AutoETS,FlowState,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.258,-3.473,-0.326 AutoETS,TiRex,0.235,0.059,0.471,-1.201,-3.366,-0.279 +AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.233,-3.406,-0.299 AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.176,0.0,0.353,-1.206,-3.408,-0.279 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.326,-3.6,-0.333 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.121,-3.271,-0.223 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.074,-3.125,-0.207 +AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.118,-3.264,-0.221 +AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.294,0.118,0.529,-1.078,-3.135,-0.213 AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.294,0.116,0.529,-0.877,-2.759,-0.053 AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.903,-2.791,-0.099 +AutoETS,TFT,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.768,-2.623,0.023 AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.724,-2.513,0.002 AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.694,-2.439,0.032 +AutoETS,LightGBM,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.716,-2.549,0.029 +AutoETS,CatBoost,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.668,-2.437,0.071 AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 -AutoETS,Naive,0.706,0.529,0.882,-0.385,-1.856,0.2 -AutoETS,Drift,0.765,0.529,0.941,-0.39,-1.866,0.187 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.503,-0.796,-0.266 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.391,-0.657,-0.2 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.367,-0.624,-0.186 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.361,-0.587,-0.187 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.454,-0.706,-0.24 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.176,0.059,0.353,-0.3,-0.517,-0.131 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.266,-0.446,-0.117 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.121,-0.244,-0.043 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.168,-0.362,-0.008 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.043,-0.134,0.059 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.41,-0.033,0.709 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.203,0.105,0.29 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.205,0.11,0.297 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.459,-0.687,-0.276 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.452,-0.699,-0.253 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.368,-0.568,-0.204 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.327,-0.496,-0.183 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.351,-0.529,-0.204 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.321,-0.498,-0.18 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.26,-0.372,-0.158 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.231,-0.337,-0.133 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.353,0.118,0.588,-0.089,-0.245,0.049 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.134,-0.331,0.026 +LightGBM,TFT,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.034,-0.276,0.149 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.013,-0.197,0.15 +LightGBM,AutoETS,0.529,0.294,0.765,0.417,-0.03,0.718 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.353,0.118,0.588,0.028,-0.02,0.087 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.765,0.529,0.941,0.226,0.07,0.353 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.5,-0.722,-0.329 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.494,-0.737,-0.304 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.407,-0.621,-0.235 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.365,-0.537,-0.227 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.389,-0.567,-0.242 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.359,-0.549,-0.204 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.296,-0.415,-0.191 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.266,-0.382,-0.178 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.412,0.176,0.647,-0.12,-0.297,0.033 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.166,-0.379,0.001 +CatBoost,TFT,0.471,0.235,0.706,-0.064,-0.317,0.136 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.529,0.294,0.765,-0.042,-0.226,0.121 +CatBoost,AutoETS,0.471,0.235,0.706,0.4,-0.076,0.709 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.647,0.412,0.882,-0.028,-0.096,0.02 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.706,0.471,0.882,0.204,0.019,0.346 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 -Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.877,-1.323,-0.523 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.768,-1.152,-0.464 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 +Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.629,-0.978,-0.347 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.591,-0.907,-0.328 Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.336,-0.608,-0.11 Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.292,-0.544,-0.075 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.256,-0.53,-0.019 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.885,-1.345,-0.512 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.745,-1.103,-0.471 -Naive,TiRex,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.715,-1.069,-0.423 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.707,-1.02,-0.448 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.825,-1.236,-0.481 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.631,-0.979,-0.35 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.588,-0.905,-0.322 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.407,-0.653,-0.204 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.057,0.353,-0.465,-0.735,-0.241 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.309,-0.53,-0.106 -Naive,AutoETS,0.294,0.118,0.471,0.278,-0.25,0.65 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.235,0.059,0.471,-0.255,-0.407,-0.117 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.824,0.647,1.0,0.003,-0.067,0.061 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.89,-1.34,-0.527 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.75,-1.131,-0.465 -Drift,TiRex,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.719,-1.091,-0.433 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.711,-1.05,-0.451 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.829,-1.263,-0.484 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.635,-0.965,-0.372 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.592,-0.871,-0.352 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.059,0.0,0.176,-0.41,-0.606,-0.237 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.469,-0.793,-0.221 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.118,0.0,0.294,-0.312,-0.548,-0.111 -Drift,AutoETS,0.235,0.059,0.471,0.28,-0.23,0.651 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.294,0.118,0.529,-0.258,-0.422,-0.124 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 -Drift,Naive,0.176,0.0,0.353,-0.003,-0.065,0.063 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv index f2a83f0cc2b818ee876260cffaaee8f3edd0522d..3cba48f934eb48f3fb8a107b88f5db3d2942dc18 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.07142857142857,35.49604819631662,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,76.89285714285712,30.012261671412087,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.07142857142857,30.197590695974842,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,66.85714285714285,28.213885409107164,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,61.21428571428572,27.25905867510979,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,60.785714285714285,26.51514785224567,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,58.67857142857142,27.649834806479856,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Sundial-Base,53.39285714285714,24.746214191232585,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.535714285714285,15.654207763455553,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,36.67857142857143,11.239602667684679,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoTheta,34.92857142857142,10.9884701559679,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,33.25,2.258981670108584,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.96428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Naive,19.321428571428573,-16.673948793089565,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.357142857142856,-18.13920384837251,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,87.25,35.49604805949068,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,77.0,30.012261653781213,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.1,30.19759066683737,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,70.5,27.82962523446033,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +Toto-1.0,66.64999999999999,28.232968102451405,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,63.925,29.834438056726754,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Moirai-2.0,62.449999999999996,27.22464946284655,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.29999999999999,26.515147822937145,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,53.65,24.74621402790721,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +CatBoost,52.39999999999999,23.692356407414938,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,49.35000000000001,21.69219430463617,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,47.699999999999996,16.442674540572565,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +TFT,45.675,20.478801720010832,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,41.349999999999994,18.365235176937922,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,38.575,17.520543454298565,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,36.150000000000006,11.626047486251256,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoTheta,33.349999999999994,10.988470150572827,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,33.074999999999996,2.258981624201861,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +Seasonal Naive,20.0,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,18.2,-16.673948829260542,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,15.350000000000003,-18.139203863942367,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv index e086150fde37995292a14568e0bea7a3732c4a97..4e0828c7d08064a09cff91ecc02ead0b3342f86f 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.42857142857143,47.28056105322771,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,82.67857142857142,42.57610775202675,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,77.57142857142858,42.20062128325953,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.21428571428571,40.7460359139889,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.42857142857143,38.892961600022936,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,64.42857142857143,39.332013785815214,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,62.96428571428573,39.58671179038912,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Sundial-Base,45.964285714285715,33.42287717226134,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.53571428571429,20.161731427800046,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,40.67857142857143,20.561948549632326,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,33.67857142857143,-26.818526760288375,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,27.142857142857142,5.457380397818312,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,20.178571428571423,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.821428571428573,-45.398988807164976,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.285714285714286,-45.77585379444895,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,91.35000000000002,47.28056092394619,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,83.3,42.57610771086986,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,79.60000000000001,42.20062123896394,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,73.25000000000001,39.910953970691175,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.45,40.75545607156532,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,69.675,41.48655788811914,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.45,39.3137408355856,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,67.0,38.89296155238764,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +TFT,51.349999999999994,32.179160778195325,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,48.00000000000001,33.42287700575167,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +PatchTST,45.89999999999999,30.08894584013384,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,45.45000000000001,20.65501241734049,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +DeepAR,44.224999999999994,29.083502888132696,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,41.400000000000006,21.30413459295425,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +CatBoost,34.35,22.997503309584754,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,33.025,-26.81852698010143,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +LightGBM,31.8,20.97912784353272,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,27.949999999999996,5.457380346204543,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.649999999999995,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.674999999999997,-45.39898892506442,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,10.149999999999999,-45.77585382275593,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 790fe98cb7e23af6ac639609b331647605276690..2b847e90c1c4c0c279f86a2db3e75c8fd9f0182b 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,85.92857142857142,39.40980595628945,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,75.28571428571428,33.719263075740194,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -TiRex,75.25000000000001,33.56017122067458,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -Toto-1.0,67.64285714285717,31.488756179777678,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,64.32142857142857,33.36123166513091,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.14285714285715,30.651048841637785,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.142857142857146,29.770064235526473,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,51.24999999999999,27.263435775595426,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.32142857142856,17.693885547849597,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,34.96428571428571,13.271687847205381,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,34.60714285714286,4.328689341465408,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,32.0,13.794755020224814,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -Naive,22.749999999999996,-6.11148881462471,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.249999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Drift,16.142857142857146,-8.604851625817744,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.60000000000001,39.409805837073975,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.10000000000001,33.71926320465137,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +TiRex,75.7,33.56017085610355,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +FlowState,69.45,33.12206767654865,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,68.27499999999999,34.85338837192187,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Toto-1.0,67.60000000000002,31.521347579266624,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,63.650000000000006,30.623849383137735,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,61.60000000000001,29.7700644245001,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,52.15,27.263435635951726,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +CatBoost,49.85000000000001,25.513623085529268,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,48.699999999999996,23.22107212878407,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,46.95,19.45356301921389,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +TFT,46.324999999999996,22.701418498964355,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,42.00000000000001,21.454006198599707,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,38.525,20.00208736844964,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +AutoARIMA,34.75,13.59923382668422,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +AutoETS,34.025000000000006,4.328689696857202,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoTheta,31.150000000000006,13.794755051782015,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Naive,21.750000000000007,-6.11148885263364,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.0,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Drift,16.849999999999998,-8.604851831604222,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 95fd7dadac7b669317e1df1ca638bfc7eb9a28e0..1394fd1d707e14371a51ae45eb3e38ac96fdbf72 100644 --- a/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,89.14285714285714,51.51952213752647,0.0,0.8031324525807175,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.60714285714286,46.6655039781259,0.0,0.22657166035714288,0.01,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,78.28571428571429,46.72558173490076,0.0,1.8920524236607146,0.1,0.0 -Toto-1.0,70.85714285714285,45.00088243993733,0.0,22.06562094568182,0.08,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,68.10714285714286,45.822378843833036,0.0,88.93563502960615,0.0,2.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.21428571428571,43.864523387242194,0.0,0.34801128166666667,0.28,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,64.85714285714286,43.187343947848866,0.0,0.24851168673039045,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.035714285714285,37.43731640370259,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,44.17857142857143,21.795752415252334,0.0,148.58311610827104,0.0,11.0 -AutoARIMA,40.10714285714287,23.401617100945593,0.0,19.52332778642857,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,31.392857142857146,-27.026777935471568,0.0,3.4683364387499998,0.0,3.0 -AutoTheta,26.714285714285708,7.846425960422055,0.0,3.250292683443853,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,19.464285714285708,0.0,0.0,0.455576268872549,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.750000000000002,-39.121433468308894,0.0,0.45289251607142855,0.0,0.0 -Drift,9.285714285714288,-40.05851008470427,0.0,0.451296885,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,89.8,51.51952214825128,0.0,0.8384894105803439,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,81.35000000000001,46.66550397197716,0.0,0.2359843339123377,0.01,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,79.80000000000001,46.725581728728585,0.0,1.8671567464010987,0.1,0.0 +FlowState,74.64999999999999,46.00575783181618,0.0,2.2905174308058607,0.08,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.89999999999999,45.020650430975195,0.0,22.346385231789775,0.08,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,71.125,46.64627267107563,0.0,109.39077603146256,0.0,1.0 +Moirai-2.0,69.25000000000001,43.85203108990482,0.0,0.3505868739583333,0.28,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,66.8,43.187343942010905,0.0,0.2591069257022472,0.0,0.0 +TFT,50.8,34.96909756614174,826.2018371833469,0.9896603560532408,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,48.85,37.43731641740621,0.0,8.007535389309524,0.01,0.0 +PatchTST,46.30000000000001,34.333137688827605,661.400328723922,0.7071791652104592,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,43.675,32.57997581707056,1112.217865039643,1.2569051967857143,0.0,3.0 +Stat. Ensemble,43.599999999999994,22.373149282241844,0.0,146.93844335857145,0.0,4.0 +AutoARIMA,40.05,24.478385201079067,0.0,20.138106313280627,0.0,4.0 +CatBoost,36.099999999999994,26.618319920348675,29.020609001294645,0.3115067528679542,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,35.45,24.359769443081024,2.7159582672916667,0.26891816055555556,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,30.775,-27.02677793164787,0.0,3.4848644275,0.0,3.0 +AutoTheta,26.75,7.846425954475189,0.0,3.2843981888916667,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,19.1,0.0,0.0,0.4757037275,0.0,0.0 +Naive,12.974999999999994,-39.12143349013901,0.0,0.47363605499999994,0.0,0.0 +Drift,9.9,-40.058509992498315,0.0,0.45445001263888885,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv index 70886f6ef01b27f227b1e22898d2d1917aa13f84..f6fe8ef1af3ffb68c688338543a2d8b246506729 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.078,0.052,0.108 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.076,0.048,0.103 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.106,0.07,0.146 Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.101,0.073,0.133 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.113,0.086,0.141 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.081,0.055,0.108 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.114,0.087,0.142 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.122,0.096,0.15 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.108,0.08,0.14 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.143,0.113,0.172 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.235,0.19,0.277 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.273,0.23,0.315 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.275,0.236,0.316 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.34,0.28,0.401 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.155,0.12,0.191 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.176,0.138,0.217 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.91,0.86,0.96,0.189,0.151,0.23 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.228,0.183,0.269 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.21,0.171,0.246 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.218,0.179,0.256 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.355,0.318,0.393 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.447,0.388,0.505 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.454,0.392,0.513 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.085,-0.121,-0.055 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.485,0.385,0.585,-0.003,-0.019,0.014 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.615,0.52,0.71,0.025,0.003,0.046 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.685,0.845,0.038,0.021,0.055 +TiRex,FlowState,0.515,0.425,0.61,0.03,-0.001,0.067 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.025,0.003,0.045 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.55,0.75,0.003,-0.041,0.04 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.765,0.685,0.845,0.038,0.021,0.056 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.048,0.029,0.067 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.033,-0.01,0.074 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.805,0.72,0.88,0.07,0.036,0.104 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.17,0.132,0.21 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.211,0.175,0.253 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.214,0.18,0.249 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.284,0.225,0.345 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.083,0.046,0.116 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.77,0.69,0.84,0.106,0.066,0.145 +TiRex,TFT,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.12,0.074,0.164 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.162,0.124,0.201 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.143,0.1,0.18 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.151,0.111,0.191 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.3,0.264,0.339 -TiRex,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.4,0.344,0.457 -TiRex,Drift,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.408,0.347,0.462 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.082,-0.115,-0.05 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.515,0.415,0.615,0.003,-0.014,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.485,0.66,0.028,0.005,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.71,0.625,0.795,0.04,0.021,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.515,0.69,0.033,0.002,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.59,0.505,0.68,0.027,0.005,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.005,-0.038,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.71,0.625,0.795,0.041,0.022,0.061 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.71,0.625,0.79,0.05,0.029,0.071 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.67,0.58,0.77,0.035,-0.011,0.081 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.805,0.73,0.88,0.072,0.04,0.105 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.172,0.126,0.217 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.214,0.175,0.257 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.216,0.177,0.255 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.286,0.228,0.347 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.085,0.047,0.122 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.109,0.064,0.151 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.122,0.08,0.167 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.165,0.12,0.208 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.145,0.103,0.182 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.154,0.112,0.197 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.302,0.267,0.342 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.402,0.341,0.458 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.409,0.345,0.469 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.113,-0.154,-0.079 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.385,0.29,0.48,-0.026,-0.048,-0.003 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.34,0.515,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.119,-0.171,-0.075 +FlowState,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.575,-0.031,-0.071,0.001 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.31,0.485,-0.034,-0.075,-0.002 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.48,0.67,-0.006,-0.049,0.034 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.66,-0.029,-0.076,0.012 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.56,0.465,0.65,0.008,-0.029,0.043 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.55,0.735,0.018,-0.013,0.046 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.695,0.605,0.78,0.041,0.003,0.077 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.054,0.003,0.099 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.078,0.028,0.123 +FlowState,TFT,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.092,0.039,0.143 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.136,0.086,0.185 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.116,0.065,0.16 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.125,0.074,0.173 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.278,0.234,0.322 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.113,-0.153,-0.079 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.025,-0.047,-0.003 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.32,0.495,-0.028,-0.054,-0.005 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.43,0.33,0.52,0.006,-0.035,0.047 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.013,-0.008,0.034 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.46,0.645,0.023,-0.005,0.048 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.008,-0.043,0.055 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.023,-0.07,0.021 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.57,0.48,0.665,0.014,-0.007,0.035 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.45,0.635,0.023,-0.005,0.049 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.675,0.585,0.765,0.046,0.007,0.088 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.149,0.102,0.193 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.191,0.149,0.237 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.194,0.151,0.235 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.266,0.203,0.326 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.06,0.019,0.1 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.084,0.039,0.132 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.098,0.048,0.146 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.141,0.095,0.184 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.121,0.077,0.163 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.13,0.087,0.178 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.282,0.241,0.327 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.94,0.88,0.98,0.385,0.32,0.442 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.94,0.392,0.328,0.451 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.128,-0.165,-0.094 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.315,-0.039,-0.059,-0.021 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.205,0.375,-0.042,-0.064,-0.022 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.013,-0.036,0.008 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.088,-0.12,-0.058 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.25,0.45,-0.003,-0.042,0.039 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.005,-0.047,0.037 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.44,0.34,0.54,0.028,-0.012,0.071 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.022,-0.021,0.065 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.51,0.41,0.61,0.036,-0.003,0.077 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.51,0.42,0.61,0.045,0.008,0.083 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.068,0.026,0.11 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.08,0.039,0.125 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.104,0.063,0.148 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.118,0.067,0.17 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.16,0.114,0.208 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.14,0.092,0.188 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.149,0.104,0.197 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.955,0.915,0.99,0.298,0.254,0.342 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.128,-0.165,-0.095 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.315,-0.04,-0.059,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.205,0.375,-0.043,-0.064,-0.022 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.44,0.35,0.535,-0.008,-0.045,0.028 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.335,0.52,-0.014,-0.037,0.007 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.49,0.39,0.59,-0.037,-0.083,0.003 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.465,0.64,0.01,-0.012,0.032 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.43,0.62,-0.005,-0.054,0.038 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.033,-0.004,0.067 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.138,0.09,0.18 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.18,0.138,0.228 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.85,0.77,0.91,0.183,0.144,0.223 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.76,0.67,0.83,0.256,0.192,0.32 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.273,0.236,0.314 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.377,0.316,0.433 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.384,0.32,0.441 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.465,0.64,0.01,-0.013,0.032 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.033,-0.005,0.067 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.046,0.009,0.082 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.65,0.56,0.75,0.071,0.029,0.113 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.085,0.037,0.135 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.129,0.084,0.171 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.109,0.067,0.146 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.118,0.076,0.16 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.272,0.235,0.314 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.139,-0.177,-0.106 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.05,-0.072,-0.03 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.29,0.21,0.375,-0.053,-0.077,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.355,0.54,-0.024,-0.051,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.36,0.535,-0.01,-0.033,0.012 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.36,0.265,0.45,-0.018,-0.049,0.013 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.365,0.55,-0.024,-0.051,0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.49,0.39,0.58,-0.047,-0.091,-0.008 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.36,0.535,-0.01,-0.033,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.52,0.42,0.61,-0.016,-0.062,0.025 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.605,0.51,0.695,0.024,-0.014,0.057 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.129,0.084,0.174 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.84,0.76,0.9,0.172,0.132,0.215 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.174,0.137,0.212 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.248,0.184,0.315 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.037,-0.005,0.075 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.63,0.54,0.72,0.062,0.019,0.104 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.076,0.031,0.121 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.121,0.077,0.163 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.1,0.057,0.14 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.109,0.066,0.151 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.265,0.226,0.304 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.37,0.315,0.423 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.378,0.319,0.435 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.122,-0.163,-0.087 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.034,-0.08,0.01 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.33,0.23,0.42,-0.036,-0.088,0.011 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.008,-0.058,0.041 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.005,-0.039,0.051 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.48,0.39,0.58,0.015,-0.026,0.058 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.53,0.43,0.63,0.039,-0.001,0.078 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.645,0.545,0.735,0.142,0.089,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.185,0.133,0.241 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.187,0.14,0.235 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.26,0.183,0.332 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.855,0.96,0.276,0.231,0.321 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.38,0.318,0.442 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.87,0.8,0.94,0.388,0.321,0.45 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.167,-0.207,-0.128 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.195,0.12,0.28,-0.075,-0.115,-0.037 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.195,0.12,0.27,-0.078,-0.117,-0.042 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.235,0.415,-0.048,-0.097,-0.007 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.035,-0.072,0.004 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.305,0.22,0.395,-0.043,-0.084,-0.003 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.235,0.415,-0.049,-0.097,-0.007 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.073,-0.124,-0.026 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.034,-0.072,0.005 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.395,0.305,0.49,-0.024,-0.061,0.014 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.37,0.57,-0.04,-0.085,0.001 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.66,0.56,0.76,0.108,0.051,0.16 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.152,0.098,0.203 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.155,0.109,0.199 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.8,0.23,0.152,0.3 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.55,0.46,0.64,0.014,-0.038,0.06 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.039,-0.019,0.092 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.054,0.013,0.094 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.099,0.041,0.151 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.078,0.032,0.121 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.088,0.045,0.131 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.247,0.206,0.288 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.88,0.8,0.94,0.355,0.289,0.417 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.363,0.291,0.428 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.308,-0.383,-0.234 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.205,-0.265,-0.152 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.208,-0.277,-0.144 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.175,-0.239,-0.113 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.16,-0.219,-0.099 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.148,-0.211,-0.091 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.355,0.265,0.455,-0.166,-0.235,-0.097 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.34,0.24,0.44,-0.121,-0.19,-0.054 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.183,-0.235,-0.137 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.09,-0.132,-0.049 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.093,-0.138,-0.049 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.057,-0.11,-0.003 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.063,-0.111,-0.019 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.088,-0.143,-0.04 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.049,-0.089,-0.01 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.038,-0.081,0.005 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.36,0.54,-0.014,-0.063,0.036 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.62,0.53,0.71,0.026,0.001,0.048 +CatBoost,TFT,0.49,0.4,0.59,0.04,-0.022,0.104 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.51,0.7,0.087,0.041,0.133 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.065,0.011,0.119 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.075,0.024,0.126 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.237,0.192,0.284 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.214,-0.277,-0.16 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.23,0.16,0.31,-0.119,-0.17,-0.071 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.122,-0.177,-0.069 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.085,-0.141,-0.029 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.091,-0.152,-0.041 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.116,-0.174,-0.067 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.25,0.44,-0.076,-0.128,-0.03 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.37,0.28,0.46,-0.066,-0.116,-0.019 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.041,-0.101,0.018 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.026,-0.05,-0.001 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,TFT,0.49,0.39,0.58,0.015,-0.059,0.085 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.56,0.47,0.66,0.063,0.017,0.108 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.54,0.44,0.63,0.041,-0.024,0.098 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.58,0.49,0.68,0.051,-0.008,0.107 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.73,0.88,0.217,0.17,0.268 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.14,-0.233,-0.298,-0.178 +TFT,TiRex,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.136,-0.196,-0.08 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.139,-0.201,-0.087 +TFT,FlowState,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.102,-0.167,-0.04 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.108,-0.172,-0.05 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.133,-0.204,-0.071 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.093,-0.156,-0.038 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.082,-0.138,-0.033 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.057,-0.104,-0.013 +TFT,CatBoost,0.51,0.41,0.6,-0.042,-0.117,0.022 +TFT,LightGBM,0.51,0.42,0.61,-0.015,-0.093,0.056 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.53,0.43,0.63,0.048,-0.027,0.115 +TFT,PatchTST,0.52,0.415,0.61,0.026,-0.01,0.06 +TFT,DeepAR,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.036,-0.004,0.08 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.79,0.705,0.865,0.205,0.156,0.252 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.295,-0.369,-0.224 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.194,-0.251,-0.142 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.197,-0.263,-0.137 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.158,-0.226,-0.095 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.164,-0.226,-0.105 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.191,-0.263,-0.128 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.148,-0.206,-0.092 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.137,-0.195,-0.084 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.11,-0.178,-0.043 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.4,0.3,0.49,-0.095,-0.154,-0.042 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.44,0.34,0.53,-0.067,-0.122,-0.017 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.47,0.37,0.57,-0.051,-0.13,0.026 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.64,0.545,0.73,0.05,0.02,0.09 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.052,0.025,0.082 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.795,0.72,0.87,0.137,0.081,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.725,0.865,0.157,0.116,0.203 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.277,0.218,0.346 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.286,0.225,0.35 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.376,-0.459,-0.298 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.268,-0.339,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.272,-0.346,-0.212 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.236,-0.311,-0.175 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.22,-0.295,-0.16 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.16,0.1,0.24,-0.208,-0.274,-0.152 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.227,-0.317,-0.153 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.179,-0.254,-0.108 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.36,0.27,0.455,-0.052,-0.099,-0.02 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.003,-0.039,0.039 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.595,0.5,0.69,0.092,0.024,0.162 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.665,0.83,0.112,0.068,0.161 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.239,0.169,0.312 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.249,0.174,0.324 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.38,-0.462,-0.308 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.272,-0.332,-0.22 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.275,-0.343,-0.215 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.24,-0.307,-0.178 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.09,0.23,-0.224,-0.287,-0.168 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.211,-0.269,-0.159 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.23,-0.307,-0.163 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.183,-0.249,-0.122 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.055,-0.09,-0.025 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.003,-0.041,0.037 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.59,0.5,0.69,0.089,0.026,0.155 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.11,0.069,0.149 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.237,0.181,0.301 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.247,0.189,0.31 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.515,-0.671,-0.39 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.397,-0.526,-0.291 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.4,-0.531,-0.295 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.362,-0.484,-0.254 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.24,0.17,0.33,-0.344,-0.471,-0.237 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.33,-0.459,-0.225 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.351,-0.498,-0.225 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.2,0.39,-0.299,-0.428,-0.179 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.13,0.28,-0.159,-0.241,-0.088 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.405,0.31,0.5,-0.101,-0.194,-0.024 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.41,0.31,0.5,-0.098,-0.183,-0.027 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.635,0.54,0.72,0.023,-0.071,0.103 -AutoETS,Naive,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.162,0.086,0.251 -AutoETS,Drift,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.173,0.098,0.258 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.495,0.4,0.59,-0.024,-0.093,0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.55,0.455,0.65,-0.013,-0.075,0.049 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.164,0.121,0.211 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.266,-0.326,-0.206 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.166,-0.22,-0.112 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.17,-0.223,-0.115 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.131,-0.19,-0.07 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.137,-0.194,-0.084 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.163,-0.231,-0.101 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.122,-0.171,-0.072 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.111,-0.163,-0.06 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.38,0.29,0.47,-0.085,-0.137,-0.034 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.44,0.34,0.54,-0.07,-0.136,-0.011 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.46,0.37,0.56,-0.042,-0.108,0.023 +PatchTST,TFT,0.48,0.39,0.585,-0.027,-0.064,0.01 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.505,0.41,0.6,0.023,-0.05,0.085 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.52,0.425,0.61,0.01,-0.025,0.05 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.73,0.645,0.815,0.184,0.133,0.234 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.279,-0.345,-0.217 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.178,-0.237,-0.125 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.182,-0.245,-0.126 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.143,-0.209,-0.08 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.149,-0.216,-0.095 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.175,-0.245,-0.116 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.133,-0.19,-0.082 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.122,-0.177,-0.071 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.096,-0.15,-0.048 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.081,-0.144,-0.025 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.42,0.32,0.51,-0.053,-0.12,0.008 +DeepAR,TFT,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.037,-0.088,0.004 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.35,0.545,0.013,-0.052,0.07 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.48,0.39,0.575,-0.01,-0.052,0.025 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.785,0.7,0.855,0.175,0.134,0.217 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.55,-0.648,-0.466 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.429,-0.512,-0.359 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.433,-0.52,-0.365 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.386,-0.475,-0.305 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.393,-0.485,-0.318 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.375,-0.458,-0.308 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.045,0.01,0.085,-0.425,-0.52,-0.341 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.374,-0.457,-0.308 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.361,-0.437,-0.293 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.09,0.04,0.145,-0.382,-0.472,-0.301 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.329,-0.405,-0.259 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.135,0.275,-0.186,-0.255,-0.131 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.335,-0.127,-0.191,-0.073 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.123,-0.176,-0.074 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.365,0.28,0.46,-0.023,-0.115,0.067 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.31,-0.396,-0.237 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.12,0.27,-0.277,-0.367,-0.204 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.21,0.135,0.295,-0.258,-0.336,-0.185 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.197,-0.268,-0.138 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.27,0.185,0.355,-0.225,-0.306,-0.154 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.215,0.145,0.3,-0.212,-0.277,-0.154 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.575,0.48,0.665,0.143,0.065,0.223 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.154,0.067,0.238 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.809,-1.021,-0.634 -Naive,TiRex,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.667,-0.842,-0.525 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.671,-0.844,-0.518 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.06,0.02,0.12,-0.625,-0.792,-0.471 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.604,-0.764,-0.463 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.588,-0.733,-0.46 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.613,-0.791,-0.467 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.2,-0.55,-0.716,-0.407 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.383,-0.529,-0.279 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.314,-0.454,-0.204 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.311,-0.432,-0.222 -Naive,AutoETS,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.194,-0.336,-0.094 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.425,0.335,0.52,-0.167,-0.288,-0.069 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.012,-0.012,0.035 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.832,-1.053,-0.644 -Drift,TiRex,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.688,-0.859,-0.531 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.692,-0.883,-0.526 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.11,0.06,0.18,-0.646,-0.821,-0.487 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.624,-0.789,-0.47 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.608,-0.77,-0.468 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.13,0.06,0.2,-0.633,-0.819,-0.473 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.57,-0.747,-0.411 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.401,-0.539,-0.291 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.331,-0.479,-0.21 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.327,-0.45,-0.233 -Drift,AutoETS,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.209,-0.347,-0.109 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.181,-0.312,-0.071 -Drift,Naive,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.013,-0.036,0.012 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv index 6730d66be75dd568f6296bcbc07fc32aafe4add8..e81a293c15614099bcefde4eb7a14c25cc6ea7ad 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.082,0.056,0.111 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.088,0.059,0.115 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.11,0.081,0.141 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.123,0.087,0.162 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.11,0.081,0.141 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.099,0.073,0.125 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.131,0.103,0.16 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.137,0.11,0.168 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.127,0.097,0.159 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.223,0.182,0.266 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.208,0.18,0.236 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.34,0.288,0.386 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.38 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.562,0.466,0.655 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.495 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.246,0.206,0.286 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.257,0.216,0.298 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.336,0.284,0.383 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.33,0.285,0.373 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.315,0.285,0.345 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.473,0.427,0.521 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.637,0.583,0.684 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.638,0.581,0.687 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.089,-0.125,-0.06 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.565,0.465,0.66,0.006,-0.01,0.022 +TiRex,FlowState,0.655,0.56,0.75,0.044,0.014,0.08 TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.595,0.775,0.031,0.009,0.052 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.825,0.75,0.895,0.053,0.036,0.072 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.019,-0.024,0.055 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.825,0.75,0.895,0.054,0.036,0.072 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.835,0.76,0.905,0.06,0.042,0.08 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.049,0.005,0.092 +TiRex,TFT,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.153,0.104,0.201 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.85,0.96,0.137,0.107,0.169 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.281,0.232,0.328 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.277,0.237,0.32 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.524,0.417,0.626 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.393,0.339,0.445 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.179,0.136,0.218 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.19,0.15,0.23 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.276,0.228,0.322 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.27,0.231,0.314 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.254,0.223,0.284 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.426,0.379,0.479 -TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.605,0.547,0.653 -TiRex,Drift,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.606,0.545,0.655 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.096,-0.13,-0.062 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.435,0.34,0.535,-0.007,-0.023,0.01 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.47,0.66,0.025,0.001,0.048 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.047,0.026,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.65,0.56,0.735,0.038,0.008,0.074 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.485,0.67,0.024,0.001,0.048 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.012,-0.032,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.048,0.027,0.069 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.72,0.635,0.8,0.054,0.033,0.075 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.043,-0.005,0.087 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.148,0.102,0.195 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.925,0.875,0.97,0.132,0.103,0.161 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.276,0.222,0.327 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.272,0.232,0.319 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.521,0.413,0.624 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.389,0.331,0.446 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.173,0.13,0.213 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.185,0.143,0.23 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.272,0.22,0.323 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.266,0.224,0.311 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.249,0.215,0.281 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.422,0.375,0.474 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.602,0.543,0.65 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.604,0.542,0.653 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.124,-0.164,-0.089 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.14,-0.193,-0.095 +FlowState,TiRex,0.345,0.25,0.44,-0.046,-0.087,-0.014 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.265,0.44,-0.04,-0.08,-0.008 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.51,0.42,0.605,-0.014,-0.058,0.025 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.45,0.65,-0.027,-0.079,0.018 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.56,0.465,0.655,0.01,-0.028,0.047 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.505,0.69,0.017,-0.016,0.045 +FlowState,TFT,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.114,0.062,0.166 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.845,0.77,0.915,0.097,0.061,0.133 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.14,0.092,0.183 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.153,0.104,0.201 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.77,0.9,0.243,0.187,0.298 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.236,0.188,0.285 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.22,0.175,0.257 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.399,0.352,0.451 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.124,-0.164,-0.088 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.225,0.405,-0.032,-0.054,-0.01 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.34,0.53,-0.025,-0.051,-0.001 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.33,0.515,-0.025,-0.051,-0.001 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.49,0.395,0.58,0.014,-0.026,0.055 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.51,0.685,0.023,0.002,0.045 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.57,0.475,0.655,0.03,0.001,0.055 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.019,-0.033,0.07 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.46,0.65,-0.012,-0.061,0.032 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.024,0.003,0.045 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.46,0.645,0.03,0.001,0.055 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.74,0.65,0.83,0.126,0.074,0.177 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.825,0.745,0.895,0.11,0.074,0.147 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.258,0.2,0.309 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.254,0.207,0.305 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.51,0.402,0.614 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.373,0.31,0.431 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.407,0.354,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.532,0.642 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.594,0.53,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.151,-0.19,-0.115 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.175,0.105,0.25,-0.056,-0.077,-0.038 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.05,-0.074,-0.027 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.49,-0.024,-0.047,-0.002 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.153,0.107,0.197 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.165,0.118,0.21 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.7,0.87,0.253,0.196,0.305 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.77,0.91,0.247,0.2,0.298 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.231,0.198,0.264 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.408,0.354,0.464 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.11,-0.142,-0.078 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.019,-0.058,0.024 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.012,-0.053,0.031 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.45,0.35,0.55,0.026,-0.018,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.54,0.012,-0.033,0.058 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.036,-0.005,0.078 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.042,0.005,0.081 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.137,0.083,0.191 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.121,0.08,0.164 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.163,0.111,0.214 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.175,0.126,0.224 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.263,0.211,0.316 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.256,0.208,0.306 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.24,0.202,0.279 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.94,1.0,0.415,0.364,0.469 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.151,-0.191,-0.115 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.175,0.105,0.25,-0.057,-0.077,-0.038 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.05,-0.074,-0.028 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.44,0.345,0.535,-0.01,-0.049,0.027 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.024,-0.047,-0.003 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.037,-0.085,0.005 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.455,0.625,0.007,-0.016,0.029 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.44,0.63,-0.004,-0.055,0.042 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.855,0.78,0.92,0.089,0.054,0.123 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.24,0.187,0.292 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.236,0.189,0.286 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.5,0.382,0.609 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.93,0.358,0.299,0.415 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.54,0.455,0.625,0.007,-0.017,0.028 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.69,0.59,0.78,0.105,0.053,0.156 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.855,0.78,0.92,0.088,0.054,0.122 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.132,0.086,0.175 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.79,0.7,0.86,0.144,0.101,0.188 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.235,0.182,0.287 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.229,0.18,0.278 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.212,0.178,0.243 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.393,0.343,0.448 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.583,0.523,0.634 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.94,0.88,0.98,0.584,0.519,0.636 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.159,-0.201,-0.123 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.165,0.095,0.24,-0.064,-0.088,-0.044 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.28,0.2,0.365,-0.057,-0.081,-0.034 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.345,0.525,-0.031,-0.059,-0.001 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.46,0.375,0.545,-0.007,-0.03,0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.4,0.31,0.495,-0.017,-0.048,0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.355,0.54,-0.031,-0.059,-0.001 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.46,0.36,0.55,-0.044,-0.089,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.46,0.375,0.545,-0.007,-0.029,0.016 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.63,-0.011,-0.059,0.031 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.099,0.051,0.146 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.815,0.74,0.89,0.082,0.045,0.116 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.235,0.184,0.284 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.92,0.231,0.188,0.277 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.496,0.379,0.605 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.354,0.3,0.409 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.126,0.078,0.169 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.138,0.092,0.181 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.23,0.18,0.278 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.87,0.8,0.92,0.224,0.181,0.268 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.206,0.169,0.24 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.389,0.342,0.441 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.58,0.524,0.628 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.581,0.52,0.63 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.146,-0.189,-0.108 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.052,-0.101,-0.005 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.045,-0.095,0.005 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.02,-0.076,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.47,0.37,0.56,0.004,-0.044,0.052 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.47,0.37,0.57,0.011,-0.032,0.055 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.093,0.05,0.135 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.735,0.645,0.815,0.243,0.19,0.297 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.239,0.189,0.292 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.503,0.387,0.611 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.361,0.302,0.422 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.396,0.346,0.447 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.584,0.526,0.636 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.586,0.521,0.639 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.286,-0.363,-0.222 +TFT,TiRex,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.181,-0.251,-0.116 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.173,-0.242,-0.113 +TFT,FlowState,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.129,-0.2,-0.066 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.26,0.17,0.35,-0.145,-0.216,-0.08 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.21,0.38,-0.159,-0.237,-0.09 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.31,0.22,0.41,-0.118,-0.184,-0.056 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.11,-0.17,-0.054 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.56,0.46,0.65,-0.019,-0.07,0.03 +TFT,PatchTST,0.57,0.475,0.665,0.03,-0.007,0.067 +TFT,DeepAR,0.6,0.505,0.69,0.044,0.003,0.087 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.145,0.062,0.222 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.5,0.7,0.138,0.068,0.201 +TFT,CatBoost,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.119,0.052,0.176 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.322,0.262,0.385 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.263,-0.309,-0.219 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.095,0.04,0.15,-0.159,-0.203,-0.119 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.075,0.03,0.125,-0.152,-0.191,-0.115 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.175,0.105,0.255,-0.124,-0.172,-0.079 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.145,0.08,0.22,-0.097,-0.14,-0.057 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.155,0.085,0.23,-0.108,-0.153,-0.065 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.175,0.105,0.255,-0.124,-0.172,-0.08 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.138,-0.196,-0.087 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.145,0.08,0.22,-0.097,-0.139,-0.057 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.185,0.11,0.26,-0.09,-0.132,-0.047 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.102,-0.155,-0.053 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.44,0.35,0.54,0.018,-0.031,0.065 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.55,0.73,0.166,0.096,0.23 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.162,0.102,0.22 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.61,0.78,0.453,0.323,0.576 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.296,0.226,0.364 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.52,0.43,0.62,0.048,-0.002,0.096 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.55,0.46,0.65,0.061,0.014,0.11 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.161,0.093,0.227 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.154,0.093,0.211 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.135,0.088,0.178 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.334,0.281,0.392 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.542,0.473,0.598 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.543,0.47,0.602 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.514,-0.63,-0.404 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.39,-0.488,-0.302 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.381,-0.485,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.347,-0.448,-0.25 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.316,-0.412,-0.23 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.22,0.15,0.31,-0.307,-0.396,-0.226 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.265,0.185,0.355,-0.322,-0.423,-0.234 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.45,-0.199,-0.298,-0.107 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.326,-0.4,-0.259 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.217,-0.279,-0.158 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.21,-0.271,-0.149 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.23,0.16,0.32,-0.163,-0.224,-0.102 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.18,-0.246,-0.119 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.195,-0.273,-0.124 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.152,-0.212,-0.094 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.144,-0.203,-0.085 +PatchTST,TFT,0.43,0.335,0.525,-0.031,-0.072,0.007 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.48,0.38,0.57,-0.05,-0.106,0.002 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.58,0.48,0.675,0.014,-0.027,0.055 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.45,0.65,0.119,0.034,0.197 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.54,0.44,0.64,0.112,0.043,0.175 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.092,0.032,0.147 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.82,0.75,0.89,0.301,0.235,0.37 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.345,-0.425,-0.276 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.235,-0.298,-0.176 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.227,-0.299,-0.167 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.18,-0.251,-0.116 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.09,0.22,-0.197,-0.266,-0.134 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.212,-0.289,-0.144 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.21,0.14,0.3,-0.169,-0.231,-0.112 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.161,-0.222,-0.102 +DeepAR,TFT,0.4,0.31,0.495,-0.046,-0.096,-0.003 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.35,0.54,-0.065,-0.124,-0.015 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.42,0.325,0.52,-0.014,-0.059,0.026 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.515,0.42,0.61,0.106,0.025,0.178 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.575,0.475,0.665,0.099,0.035,0.159 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.73,0.65,0.81,0.079,0.021,0.131 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.805,0.725,0.875,0.291,0.231,0.355 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.505,-0.622,-0.397 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.382,-0.474,-0.295 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.373,-0.476,-0.282 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.16,0.1,0.23,-0.32,-0.424,-0.23 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.21,0.13,0.3,-0.339,-0.438,-0.244 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.356,-0.462,-0.268 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.307,-0.402,-0.223 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.22,0.15,0.31,-0.298,-0.384,-0.219 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.17,-0.285,-0.066 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.192,-0.293,-0.103 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.45,0.35,0.55,-0.135,-0.245,-0.036 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.485,0.39,0.58,-0.119,-0.217,-0.025 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.51,0.42,0.605,-0.005,-0.049,0.041 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.765,0.68,0.845,0.365,0.22,0.501 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.156,0.108,0.208 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.795,0.725,0.87,0.202,0.148,0.257 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.451,0.395,0.503 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.452,0.394,0.506 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.507,-0.612,-0.409 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.383,-0.47,-0.311 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.374,-0.468,-0.301 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.341,-0.439,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.309,-0.401,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.08,0.2,-0.3,-0.383,-0.232 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.315,-0.412,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.193,-0.282,-0.114 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.49,0.395,0.58,0.005,-0.043,0.047 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.51,0.42,0.61,-0.008,-0.053,0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.03,-0.115,0.042 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.81,0.735,0.885,0.207,0.15,0.261 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.493,-0.595,-0.398 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.37,-0.458,-0.301 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.362,-0.452,-0.289 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.31,-0.398,-0.232 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.09,0.23,-0.328,-0.424,-0.249 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.345,-0.441,-0.262 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.297,-0.386,-0.219 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.08,0.2,-0.288,-0.366,-0.221 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.4,0.3,0.5,-0.16,-0.252,-0.074 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.182,-0.267,-0.102 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.46,0.36,0.56,-0.126,-0.212,-0.045 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.425,0.335,0.525,-0.11,-0.188,-0.036 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.49,0.39,0.58,0.008,-0.04,0.05 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.695,0.615,0.785,0.359,0.211,0.496 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.16,0.099,0.216 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.82,0.935,0.206,0.154,0.263 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.454,0.388,0.512 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.455,0.384,0.516 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-1.285,-1.897,-0.873 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.102,-1.673,-0.714 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.087,-1.662,-0.703 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-1.041,-1.59,-0.672 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.999,-1.559,-0.619 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.983,-1.531,-0.609 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-1.011,-1.572,-0.632 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.22,0.39,-0.828,-1.359,-0.478 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.235,0.155,0.32,-0.575,-1.003,-0.282 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.305,0.215,0.385,-0.56,-0.983,-0.268 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.345,-0.709,-0.081 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.635,0.545,0.725,-0.268,-0.644,-0.013 -AutoETS,Naive,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.104,-0.173,0.297 -AutoETS,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.103,-0.161,0.297 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.793,-0.98,-0.63 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.646,-0.803,-0.513 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.636,-0.805,-0.495 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.596,-0.759,-0.449 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.07,0.19,-0.558,-0.711,-0.427 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.547,-0.691,-0.429 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.565,-0.731,-0.433 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.42,-0.572,-0.292 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.12,0.06,0.18,-0.184,-0.263,-0.121 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.19,-0.276,-0.11 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.257,0.075,0.415 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.055,-0.038,0.135 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.83,0.75,0.89,0.35,0.293,0.403 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.351,0.288,0.408 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.54,0.44,0.64,-0.022,-0.098,0.041 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.84,0.955,0.213,0.162,0.268 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.461,-0.528,-0.399 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.341,-0.397,-0.288 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.332,-0.391,-0.273 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.281,-0.346,-0.212 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.3,-0.359,-0.247 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.316,-0.387,-0.254 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.269,-0.321,-0.217 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.26,-0.315,-0.204 +CatBoost,TFT,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.135,-0.213,-0.055 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.22,0.15,0.31,-0.157,-0.216,-0.097 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.101,-0.172,-0.033 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.27,0.19,0.35,-0.086,-0.151,-0.021 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.03,-0.043,0.103 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.46,0.36,0.56,0.022,-0.043,0.09 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.23,0.164,0.301 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.897,-1.087,-0.745 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.741,-0.919,-0.611 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.73,-0.902,-0.6 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.664,-0.822,-0.542 Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.688,-0.867,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.648,-0.813,-0.522 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.06,-0.709,-0.884,-0.572 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.648,-0.812,-0.522 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.636,-0.788,-0.52 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.655,-0.809,-0.529 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.474,-0.625,-0.355 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.502,-0.645,-0.39 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.205,0.13,0.275,-0.253,-0.347,-0.174 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.065,0.18,-0.259,-0.356,-0.182 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.365,0.275,0.455,0.211,0.013,0.392 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.058,-0.156,0.037 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.18,0.11,0.25,-0.43,-0.588,-0.308 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.195,0.125,0.275,-0.41,-0.549,-0.301 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.19,0.115,0.265,-0.26,-0.353,-0.176 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.045,0.16,-0.271,-0.366,-0.193 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.299,-0.43,-0.196 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.715,0.64,0.785,0.312,0.229,0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.314,0.222,0.396 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.758,-2.16,-1.399 -Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.532,-1.88,-1.209 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.516,-1.859,-1.189 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.454,-1.793,-1.135 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.397,-1.731,-1.095 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.379,-1.689,-1.099 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.407,-1.747,-1.111 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.04,0.16,-1.184,-1.49,-0.898 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.821,-1.014,-0.653 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.83,-1.05,-0.635 -Naive,AutoETS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.116,-0.422,0.148 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.17,0.11,0.25,-0.538,-0.676,-0.414 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.285,0.215,0.36,-0.454,-0.628,-0.298 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.003,-0.02,0.022 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.765,-2.19,-1.384 -Drift,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.539,-1.898,-1.199 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.522,-1.883,-1.184 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-1.46,-1.816,-1.126 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.06,0.02,0.12,-1.403,-1.749,-1.079 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.386,-1.705,-1.084 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.413,-1.773,-1.088 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.19,-1.513,-0.886 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.826,-1.023,-0.65 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.835,-1.064,-0.623 -Drift,AutoETS,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.115,-0.423,0.139 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.13,0.29,-0.542,-0.69,-0.404 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.458,-0.656,-0.285 -Drift,Naive,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.003,-0.023,0.02 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 901599a21956d305748b11cf1474b027525e8e4c..b6d79591173b73b4314eef4029cdc9497d349b82 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.086,0.054,0.118 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.088,0.057,0.12 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.116,0.082,0.153 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.091,0.058,0.121 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.126,0.096,0.159 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.094,0.054,0.13 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.07,0.039,0.1 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.115,0.081,0.153 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.127,0.096,0.159 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.137,0.105,0.171 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.167,0.134,0.2 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.264,0.21,0.312 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.301,0.251,0.35 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.367,0.293,0.433 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.297,0.247,0.344 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.429,0.373,0.482 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.86,0.78,0.92,0.187,0.147,0.224 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.211,0.158,0.264 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.216,0.171,0.267 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.248,0.195,0.294 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.229,0.183,0.273 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.243,0.199,0.288 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.394,0.349,0.44 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.93,0.88,0.97,0.442,0.383,0.498 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.32,0.24,0.41,-0.094,-0.133,-0.057 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.485,0.39,0.58,0.002,-0.014,0.02 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.445,0.62,0.033,0.006,0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.005,-0.04,0.051 -TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.615,0.78,0.044,0.019,0.069 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.5,0.685,0.009,-0.024,0.042 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.59,0.49,0.69,-0.017,-0.06,0.026 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.54,0.455,0.635,0.032,0.006,0.06 +TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.615,0.78,0.045,0.02,0.07 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.73,0.65,0.81,0.056,0.034,0.079 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.825,0.75,0.9,0.089,0.052,0.125 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.195,0.146,0.244 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.91,0.85,0.97,0.236,0.189,0.285 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.307,0.237,0.376 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.231,0.186,0.275 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.375,0.321,0.43 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.11,0.068,0.152 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.137,0.084,0.197 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.143,0.092,0.195 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.177,0.128,0.226 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.156,0.106,0.203 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.171,0.125,0.219 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.337,0.293,0.386 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.39,0.336,0.445 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.097,-0.137,-0.06 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.515,0.42,0.61,-0.002,-0.02,0.014 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.53,0.72,0.03,0.007,0.051 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.003,-0.045,0.052 +TiRex,FlowState,0.545,0.45,0.64,0.007,-0.034,0.042 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.62,0.52,0.71,-0.02,-0.065,0.026 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.535,0.725,0.03,0.007,0.05 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.695,0.615,0.79,0.042,0.023,0.065 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.745,0.66,0.83,0.054,0.032,0.077 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.775,0.695,0.85,0.087,0.048,0.126 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.82,0.73,0.89,0.193,0.146,0.242 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.234,0.189,0.282 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.306,0.233,0.374 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.229,0.187,0.272 -TiRex,Naive,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.374,0.321,0.429 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.108,0.067,0.148 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.135,0.082,0.194 +TiRex,TFT,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.14,0.086,0.193 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.82,0.73,0.89,0.175,0.129,0.22 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.154,0.097,0.205 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.169,0.123,0.217 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.336,0.29,0.384 -TiRex,Drift,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.388,0.335,0.443 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.131,-0.18,-0.089 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.47,0.38,0.555,-0.034,-0.064,-0.007 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.28,0.47,-0.031,-0.054,-0.007 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.104,-0.15,-0.057 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.315,0.5,-0.009,-0.044,0.024 +FlowState,TiRex,0.455,0.36,0.55,-0.007,-0.044,0.033 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.53,0.43,0.64,-0.027,-0.078,0.022 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.53,0.44,0.625,0.023,-0.018,0.067 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.455,0.64,0.036,-0.002,0.077 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.64,0.545,0.73,0.048,0.016,0.084 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.705,0.615,0.795,0.081,0.04,0.121 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.102,0.054,0.151 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.129,0.066,0.192 +FlowState,TFT,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.135,0.078,0.192 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.17,0.116,0.219 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.149,0.1,0.193 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.82,0.74,0.9,0.164,0.111,0.214 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.331,0.285,0.379 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.075,-0.111,-0.04 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.41,0.31,0.51,0.017,-0.027,0.057 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.38,0.29,0.48,0.019,-0.026,0.061 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.47,0.36,0.57,0.026,-0.023,0.073 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.41,0.6,0.049,0.004,0.095 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.57,0.48,0.66,0.061,0.016,0.104 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.51,0.71,0.072,0.032,0.113 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.104,0.057,0.149 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.72,0.63,0.81,0.125,0.083,0.168 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.152,0.097,0.21 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.157,0.102,0.213 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.191,0.142,0.24 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.171,0.116,0.22 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.186,0.141,0.229 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.94,1.0,0.349,0.305,0.394 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.13,-0.18,-0.089 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.46,0.365,0.545,-0.033,-0.063,-0.006 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.375,0.275,0.465,-0.031,-0.053,-0.007 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.47,0.375,0.56,-0.024,-0.072,0.018 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.4,0.59,-0.051,-0.105,-0.004 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.47,0.65,-0.028,-0.083,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.012,-0.012,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.505,0.685,0.024,-0.004,0.052 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.575,0.75,0.058,0.011,0.103 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.69,0.59,0.78,0.168,0.115,0.219 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.21,0.157,0.261 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.284,0.208,0.353 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.205,0.158,0.252 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.354,0.296,0.408 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.485,0.67,0.013,-0.011,0.037 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.5,0.68,0.025,-0.003,0.053 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.575,0.75,0.059,0.012,0.104 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.081,0.037,0.125 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.108,0.049,0.175 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.73,0.63,0.82,0.114,0.058,0.167 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.69,0.59,0.78,0.15,0.099,0.198 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.128,0.071,0.182 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.144,0.093,0.196 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.315,0.266,0.365 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.83,0.96,0.369,0.315,0.424 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.1,-0.138,-0.061 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.005,-0.054,0.039 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.003,-0.055,0.043 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.44,0.35,0.53,0.027,-0.024,0.076 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.039,-0.012,0.085 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.53,0.44,0.62,0.051,0.006,0.094 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.66,0.56,0.75,0.084,0.041,0.126 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.775,0.695,0.855,0.19,0.134,0.242 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.232,0.178,0.283 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.77,0.69,0.85,0.303,0.23,0.382 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.84,0.76,0.9,0.227,0.18,0.277 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.372,0.316,0.432 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.334,0.29,0.379 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.386,0.328,0.447 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.145,-0.189,-0.106 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.22,0.385,-0.046,-0.075,-0.02 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.305,0.21,0.385,-0.044,-0.069,-0.023 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.012,-0.038,0.012 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.041,-0.093,0.012 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.22,0.385,-0.047,-0.075,-0.02 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.305,0.21,0.385,-0.044,-0.069,-0.024 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.45,0.36,0.545,-0.037,-0.084,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.43,0.34,0.52,-0.065,-0.116,-0.016 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.33,0.515,-0.013,-0.038,0.011 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.48,0.645,0.013,-0.011,0.036 -Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.57,0.76,0.047,0.005,0.087 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.157,0.105,0.208 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.2,0.148,0.254 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.275,0.196,0.35 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.196,0.147,0.243 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.346,0.29,0.403 -Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.307,0.258,0.357 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.361,0.303,0.417 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.56,0.48,0.645,0.012,-0.012,0.036 +Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.665,0.57,0.76,0.046,0.003,0.087 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.069,0.027,0.111 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.096,0.038,0.16 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.71,0.61,0.8,0.102,0.045,0.157 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.139,0.087,0.188 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.73,0.64,0.81,0.117,0.062,0.167 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.133,0.085,0.182 +Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.306,0.258,0.357 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.159,-0.207,-0.117 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.35,-0.06,-0.086,-0.035 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.255,0.17,0.34,-0.057,-0.083,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.315,0.495,-0.025,-0.055,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.47,0.38,0.56,-0.054,-0.104,-0.006 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.355,0.52,-0.013,-0.038,0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.36,0.27,0.455,-0.05,-0.092,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.39,0.29,0.49,-0.078,-0.127,-0.033 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.5,-0.026,-0.056,0.003 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.44,0.355,0.52,-0.012,-0.038,0.011 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.635,0.54,0.73,0.034,-0.006,0.071 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.147,0.096,0.198 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.77,0.92,0.19,0.137,0.242 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.266,0.19,0.341 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.92,0.87,0.97,0.185,0.139,0.232 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.338,0.28,0.394 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.057,0.01,0.103 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.085,0.03,0.147 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.091,0.04,0.144 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.128,0.075,0.177 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.7,0.6,0.78,0.106,0.052,0.155 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.122,0.074,0.168 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.298,0.252,0.345 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.353,0.296,0.41 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.2,-0.25,-0.154 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.1,0.25,-0.097,-0.143,-0.055 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.225,0.15,0.305,-0.095,-0.144,-0.05 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.295,0.205,0.385,-0.088,-0.138,-0.042 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.117,-0.175,-0.061 Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.335,0.25,0.425,-0.062,-0.115,-0.012 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.34,0.25,0.44,-0.092,-0.144,-0.042 -Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.335,0.24,0.43,-0.049,-0.095,-0.005 +Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.335,0.24,0.43,-0.048,-0.095,-0.003 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.365,0.27,0.46,-0.036,-0.076,0.006 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.116,0.05,0.174 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.161,0.097,0.218 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.68,0.58,0.77,0.24,0.149,0.317 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.74,0.64,0.82,0.156,0.099,0.206 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.315,0.248,0.38 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.5,0.69,0.023,-0.031,0.072 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.61,0.51,0.7,0.053,-0.012,0.118 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.059,0.01,0.11 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.63,0.53,0.73,0.097,0.032,0.151 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.074,0.018,0.124 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.65,0.55,0.74,0.091,0.042,0.135 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.273,0.225,0.319 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.33,0.261,0.398 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.358,-0.454,-0.265 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.242,-0.322,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.18,0.11,0.27,-0.239,-0.319,-0.171 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.31,0.22,0.41,-0.201,-0.28,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.225,0.145,0.305,-0.235,-0.32,-0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.187,-0.263,-0.117 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.172,-0.246,-0.107 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.132,-0.211,-0.052 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.14,0.08,0.22,-0.229,-0.288,-0.172 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.124,-0.179,-0.073 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.121,-0.174,-0.072 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.34,0.25,0.43,-0.114,-0.177,-0.057 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.19,0.37,-0.143,-0.202,-0.09 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.088,-0.142,-0.038 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.074,-0.125,-0.028 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.061,-0.115,-0.01 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.31,0.5,-0.024,-0.077,0.031 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.63,0.53,0.73,0.03,-0.004,0.069 +CatBoost,TFT,0.47,0.38,0.57,0.036,-0.037,0.109 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.64,0.54,0.73,0.075,0.022,0.127 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.052,-0.019,0.116 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.069,0.01,0.126 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.255,0.198,0.307 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.267,-0.358,-0.187 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.158,-0.245,-0.091 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.156,-0.241,-0.09 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.148,-0.238,-0.071 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.179,-0.266,-0.107 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.121,-0.212,-0.051 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.107,-0.191,-0.039 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.093,-0.172,-0.03 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.39,0.3,0.49,-0.056,-0.134,0.012 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.37,0.27,0.47,-0.031,-0.074,0.003 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,TFT,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.007,-0.087,0.093 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.62,0.52,0.71,0.047,-0.024,0.107 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.022,-0.071,0.101 +LightGBM,DeepAR,0.56,0.46,0.65,0.04,-0.037,0.108 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.232,0.173,0.288 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.276,-0.364,-0.206 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.166,-0.242,-0.101 +TFT,TiRex,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.163,-0.239,-0.094 +TFT,FlowState,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.156,-0.238,-0.084 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.21,0.38,-0.187,-0.271,-0.114 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.27,0.18,0.37,-0.129,-0.201,-0.062 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.29,0.2,0.39,-0.114,-0.187,-0.047 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.101,-0.168,-0.042 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.063,-0.124,-0.01 +TFT,CatBoost,0.53,0.43,0.62,-0.038,-0.122,0.036 +TFT,LightGBM,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.007,-0.103,0.08 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.54,0.44,0.64,0.04,-0.042,0.109 +TFT,PatchTST,0.52,0.415,0.615,0.016,-0.044,0.066 +TFT,DeepAR,0.61,0.515,0.695,0.034,-0.014,0.085 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.81,0.73,0.875,0.227,0.171,0.28 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.329,-0.416,-0.243 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.215,-0.292,-0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.18,0.11,0.27,-0.212,-0.282,-0.147 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.204,-0.28,-0.131 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.236,-0.316,-0.166 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.31,0.22,0.41,-0.176,-0.247,-0.11 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.161,-0.232,-0.095 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.147,-0.215,-0.081 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.37,0.27,0.47,-0.107,-0.179,-0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.36,0.27,0.46,-0.081,-0.145,-0.022 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.38,0.29,0.48,-0.049,-0.119,0.024 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.46,0.36,0.56,-0.042,-0.122,0.04 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.56,0.74,0.051,0.02,0.086 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.785,0.7,0.86,0.14,0.071,0.209 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.045,0.009,0.078 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.224,0.169,0.277 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.9,0.177,0.138,0.221 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.242,0.192,0.293 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.431,-0.538,-0.335 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.09,0.03,0.15,-0.308,-0.399,-0.234 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.305,-0.393,-0.233 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.266,-0.353,-0.187 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.301,-0.395,-0.217 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.251,-0.341,-0.173 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.23,-0.235,-0.319,-0.159 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.192,-0.278,-0.107 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.35,0.26,0.44,-0.054,-0.095,-0.02 -AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.555,0.46,0.655,0.093,0.015,0.175 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.52,0.42,0.62,-0.006,-0.057,0.039 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.183,0.118,0.242 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.735,0.875,0.133,0.09,0.178 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.75,0.65,0.83,0.201,0.14,0.261 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.579,-0.764,-0.414 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.09,0.22,-0.443,-0.602,-0.31 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.44,-0.598,-0.303 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.23,0.16,0.32,-0.396,-0.547,-0.263 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.23,0.15,0.31,-0.436,-0.617,-0.299 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.38,-0.538,-0.243 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.362,-0.518,-0.235 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.23,0.42,-0.315,-0.464,-0.175 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.215,0.14,0.3,-0.162,-0.264,-0.077 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.445,0.345,0.54,-0.103,-0.212,-0.015 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.47,0.37,0.56,-0.11,-0.214,-0.027 -AutoETS,Naive,0.62,0.53,0.72,0.098,0.018,0.177 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.685,0.585,0.775,0.043,-0.061,0.128 -AutoETS,Drift,0.74,0.66,0.82,0.119,0.042,0.194 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.423,-0.524,-0.328 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.301,-0.38,-0.229 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.297,-0.374,-0.23 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.258,-0.337,-0.188 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.16,0.1,0.24,-0.294,-0.383,-0.22 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.243,-0.32,-0.172 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.08,0.03,0.13,-0.227,-0.302,-0.161 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.26,0.18,0.36,-0.185,-0.26,-0.11 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.047,-0.085,-0.009 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.006,-0.041,0.054 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.53,0.44,0.63,0.099,0.026,0.177 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.188,0.138,0.239 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.138,0.099,0.18 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.206,0.158,0.26 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.751,-0.93,-0.594 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.601,-0.753,-0.473 -Naive,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.597,-0.75,-0.473 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.549,-0.689,-0.421 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.592,-0.761,-0.461 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.53,-0.674,-0.408 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.511,-0.649,-0.39 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.459,-0.613,-0.331 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.289,-0.383,-0.203 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.223,-0.319,-0.134 -Naive,AutoETS,0.38,0.28,0.47,-0.109,-0.215,-0.018 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.231,-0.314,-0.161 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.475,0.39,0.565,-0.061,-0.146,0.017 -Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.023,-0.005,0.048 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.515,0.415,0.62,-0.025,-0.109,0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.007,-0.077,0.059 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.87,0.805,0.93,0.195,0.153,0.238 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.296,-0.375,-0.224 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.185,-0.255,-0.119 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.182,-0.258,-0.108 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.174,-0.239,-0.111 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.206,-0.282,-0.131 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.147,-0.222,-0.077 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.27,0.19,0.36,-0.132,-0.2,-0.066 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.22,0.4,-0.118,-0.183,-0.055 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.42,0.33,0.51,-0.08,-0.142,-0.018 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.055,-0.131,0.019 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.023,-0.113,0.066 +PatchTST,TFT,0.48,0.385,0.585,-0.016,-0.071,0.042 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.485,0.38,0.585,0.025,-0.055,0.098 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.55,0.46,0.645,0.018,-0.025,0.072 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.71,0.62,0.8,0.215,0.151,0.279 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.32,-0.404,-0.248 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.207,-0.281,-0.143 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.204,-0.278,-0.14 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.18,0.1,0.26,-0.196,-0.272,-0.125 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.228,-0.297,-0.164 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.168,-0.243,-0.102 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.153,-0.223,-0.093 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.21,0.14,0.29,-0.139,-0.202,-0.08 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.26,0.45,-0.1,-0.157,-0.044 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.074,-0.144,-0.01 +DeepAR,LightGBM,0.44,0.35,0.54,-0.042,-0.122,0.036 +DeepAR,TFT,0.39,0.305,0.485,-0.035,-0.092,0.013 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.44,0.34,0.53,0.007,-0.063,0.071 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.45,0.355,0.54,-0.018,-0.077,0.024 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.775,0.695,0.84,0.2,0.152,0.251 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.65,-0.787,-0.537 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.509,-0.63,-0.414 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.505,-0.623,-0.408 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.46,-0.575,-0.362 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.501,-0.61,-0.409 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.442,-0.555,-0.347 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.495,-0.609,-0.398 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.025,0.0,0.06,-0.535,-0.65,-0.439 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.46,-0.576,-0.363 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.441,-0.554,-0.347 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.424,-0.527,-0.336 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.375,-0.469,-0.29 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.1,0.23,-0.215,-0.283,-0.161 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.125,0.265,-0.153,-0.217,-0.099 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.315,0.225,0.415,-0.045,-0.147,0.057 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.16,-0.219,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.525,0.435,0.61,0.058,-0.017,0.127 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.343,-0.442,-0.247 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.302,-0.404,-0.209 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.19,0.125,0.27,-0.294,-0.388,-0.206 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.13,0.07,0.195,-0.242,-0.313,-0.181 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.29,0.2,0.38,-0.273,-0.387,-0.177 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.225,0.16,0.305,-0.25,-0.335,-0.179 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.64,0.53,0.73,0.079,-0.001,0.153 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.07,0.03,0.12,-0.792,-0.994,-0.621 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.639,-0.801,-0.507 -Drift,TiRex,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.635,-0.796,-0.504 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.04,0.17,-0.585,-0.735,-0.459 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.63,-0.807,-0.488 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.566,-0.715,-0.435 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.546,-0.695,-0.42 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.493,-0.66,-0.354 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.32,-0.415,-0.238 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.35,-0.252,-0.353,-0.163 -Drift,AutoETS,0.26,0.18,0.34,-0.135,-0.24,-0.044 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.22,0.14,0.3,-0.26,-0.351,-0.188 -Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.023,-0.051,0.005 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.36,0.27,0.47,-0.086,-0.181,0.001 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv index c8b896eb4ab031e575e110c916ecd7ae5c8aee12..a66c0490771e2e4a05d77b8d90fde147cd9c2fde 100644 --- a/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/full/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.091,0.058,0.126 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.09,0.059,0.122 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.119,0.084,0.156 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.105,0.073,0.134 -Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.136,0.105,0.17 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.76,0.67,0.84,0.102,0.063,0.137 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.118,0.083,0.156 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.091,0.057,0.12 +Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.86,0.79,0.92,0.137,0.105,0.17 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.147,0.114,0.18 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.91,0.85,0.97,0.255,0.202,0.308 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.225,0.194,0.255 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.38,0.324,0.431 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.367,0.316,0.416 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.5,0.684 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.474,0.418,0.529 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.262,0.216,0.308 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.281,0.236,0.327 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.375,0.318,0.429 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.358,0.308,0.405 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.339,0.308,0.369 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.515,0.469,0.559 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.652,0.603,0.693 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.654,0.603,0.697 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.1,-0.144,-0.062 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.555,0.455,0.65,-0.001,-0.02,0.017 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.685,0.6,0.77,0.03,0.009,0.05 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.016,-0.033,0.063 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.05,0.03,0.073 +TiRex,FlowState,0.605,0.515,0.7,0.012,-0.033,0.048 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.675,0.585,0.765,0.03,0.008,0.05 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.63,0.53,0.72,0.0,-0.049,0.044 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.05,0.031,0.073 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.815,0.735,0.885,0.061,0.039,0.083 +TiRex,TFT,0.81,0.73,0.89,0.18,0.119,0.236 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.895,0.835,0.95,0.148,0.11,0.185 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.318,0.262,0.374 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.304,0.256,0.352 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.558,0.449,0.655 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.421,0.365,0.479 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.188,0.13,0.24 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.209,0.16,0.256 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.313,0.257,0.372 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.87,0.98,0.294,0.249,0.34 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.273,0.24,0.306 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.467,0.42,0.515 -TiRex,Naive,0.99,0.96,1.0,0.617,0.565,0.663 -TiRex,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.619,0.567,0.666 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.099,-0.139,-0.063 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.445,0.35,0.545,0.001,-0.017,0.019 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.56,0.475,0.655,0.031,0.006,0.057 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.64,0.54,0.74,0.017,-0.031,0.062 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.6,0.51,0.695,0.013,-0.02,0.045 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.57,0.475,0.665,0.031,0.006,0.056 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.62,0.53,0.72,0.001,-0.047,0.044 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.73,0.645,0.81,0.051,0.028,0.076 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.76,0.685,0.835,0.062,0.04,0.085 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.181,0.127,0.236 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.905,0.845,0.96,0.148,0.114,0.183 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.319,0.262,0.376 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.304,0.255,0.357 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.558,0.449,0.655 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.422,0.362,0.483 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.89,0.83,0.95,0.189,0.138,0.238 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.21,0.163,0.257 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.314,0.254,0.374 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.295,0.247,0.346 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.274,0.237,0.309 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.467,0.422,0.518 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.99,0.97,1.0,0.617,0.564,0.664 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.62,0.565,0.667 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.134,-0.185,-0.092 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.315,0.23,0.4,-0.031,-0.053,-0.009 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.44,0.345,0.525,-0.032,-0.061,-0.006 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.24,0.16,0.33,-0.114,-0.159,-0.068 +FlowState,TiRex,0.395,0.3,0.485,-0.012,-0.051,0.032 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.305,0.49,-0.014,-0.047,0.02 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.54,0.45,0.635,0.018,-0.024,0.065 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.56,0.47,0.66,-0.012,-0.068,0.038 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.56,0.475,0.65,0.038,-0.002,0.08 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.66,0.575,0.75,0.05,0.015,0.088 +FlowState,TFT,0.73,0.64,0.82,0.17,0.107,0.231 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.845,0.77,0.915,0.137,0.098,0.176 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.178,0.126,0.227 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.81,0.72,0.88,0.199,0.145,0.251 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.86,0.79,0.93,0.304,0.239,0.364 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.83,0.95,0.285,0.23,0.341 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.93,0.88,0.98,0.264,0.224,0.304 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.91,0.99,0.46,0.412,0.509 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.134,-0.185,-0.091 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.325,0.235,0.415,-0.031,-0.053,-0.008 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.43,0.335,0.525,-0.032,-0.06,-0.006 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.46,0.365,0.55,-0.018,-0.069,0.023 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.54,0.45,0.63,-0.015,-0.073,0.036 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.59,0.49,0.68,0.02,-0.003,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.61,0.52,0.695,0.032,0.003,0.061 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.51,0.42,0.6,-0.03,-0.087,0.02 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.58,0.485,0.675,0.021,-0.002,0.045 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.5,0.675,0.032,0.004,0.061 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.155,0.095,0.215 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.795,0.715,0.87,0.121,0.079,0.163 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.297,0.235,0.356 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.282,0.23,0.336 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.545,0.433,0.645 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.403,0.341,0.465 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.397,0.501 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.605,0.55,0.652 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.607,0.551,0.656 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.118,-0.155,-0.078 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.016,-0.067,0.032 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.36,0.26,0.46,-0.017,-0.066,0.03 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.46,0.37,0.55,0.015,-0.037,0.068 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.78,0.69,0.86,0.163,0.105,0.215 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.185,0.133,0.237 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.81,0.73,0.88,0.292,0.229,0.352 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.272,0.222,0.322 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.251,0.215,0.286 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.45,0.398,0.501 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.101,-0.137,-0.061 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.37,0.28,0.47,-0.0,-0.047,0.046 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.38,0.28,0.47,-0.001,-0.046,0.045 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.44,0.34,0.53,0.012,-0.04,0.063 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.49,0.4,0.58,0.03,-0.02,0.08 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.46,0.65,0.035,-0.017,0.084 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.52,0.43,0.61,0.046,0.0,0.092 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.134,0.09,0.175 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.795,0.715,0.875,0.307,0.247,0.365 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.293,0.239,0.348 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.554,0.442,0.654 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.94,0.89,0.98,0.412,0.352,0.471 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.935,0.995,0.458,0.412,0.506 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.611,0.556,0.657 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.98,0.613,0.557,0.661 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.45,0.65,0.05,0.004,0.097 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.57,0.48,0.67,0.061,0.019,0.105 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.68,0.59,0.77,0.18,0.117,0.241 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.72,0.88,0.147,0.1,0.193 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.7,0.6,0.79,0.188,0.128,0.246 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.75,0.66,0.83,0.209,0.16,0.259 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.313,0.255,0.368 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.294,0.243,0.342 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.273,0.235,0.313 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.985,0.96,1.0,0.466,0.42,0.513 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.14,0.08,0.21,-0.158,-0.205,-0.118 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.053,-0.078,-0.031 -Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.355,-0.054,-0.082,-0.029 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.32,0.51,-0.021,-0.046,0.003 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.35,0.54,-0.036,-0.091,0.017 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.053,-0.079,-0.031 +Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.27,0.19,0.355,-0.054,-0.083,-0.029 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.44,0.35,0.525,-0.04,-0.087,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.42,0.325,0.515,-0.021,-0.047,0.002 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.35,0.55,-0.052,-0.108,-0.004 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.59,0.505,0.67,0.012,-0.013,0.037 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.71,0.62,0.79,0.137,0.071,0.2 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.865,0.79,0.93,0.103,0.062,0.14 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.282,0.222,0.343 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.267,0.214,0.322 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.537,0.421,0.639 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.391,0.33,0.454 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.145,0.085,0.2 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.167,0.118,0.219 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.84,0.76,0.91,0.277,0.217,0.34 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.257,0.204,0.31 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.92,0.86,0.97,0.235,0.199,0.27 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.93,0.87,0.97,0.439,0.387,0.49 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.597,0.541,0.645 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.599,0.542,0.649 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.172,-0.22,-0.129 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.185,0.115,0.265,-0.065,-0.091,-0.041 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.24,0.165,0.315,-0.066,-0.092,-0.042 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.39,0.305,0.48,-0.033,-0.065,-0.003 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.48,0.39,0.57,-0.049,-0.101,-0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.34,0.25,0.425,-0.052,-0.097,-0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.41,0.325,0.5,-0.033,-0.065,-0.004 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.43,0.33,0.52,-0.065,-0.117,-0.019 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.41,0.33,0.495,-0.012,-0.038,0.013 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.67,0.58,0.76,0.126,0.066,0.184 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.785,0.705,0.865,0.092,0.051,0.128 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.274,0.215,0.332 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.258,0.207,0.31 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.531,0.418,0.635 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.384,0.323,0.446 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.72,0.63,0.8,0.135,0.074,0.189 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.157,0.108,0.206 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.268,0.208,0.33 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.248,0.199,0.299 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.9,0.84,0.95,0.226,0.186,0.264 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.97,0.94,1.0,0.432,0.384,0.482 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.592,0.537,0.639 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.98,0.95,1.0,0.594,0.539,0.643 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.09,0.03,0.15,-0.341,-0.444,-0.252 +TFT,TiRex,0.19,0.11,0.27,-0.219,-0.309,-0.136 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.221,-0.308,-0.145 +TFT,FlowState,0.27,0.18,0.36,-0.204,-0.3,-0.119 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.183,-0.274,-0.105 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.32,0.23,0.41,-0.219,-0.318,-0.132 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.29,0.21,0.38,-0.158,-0.251,-0.077 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.33,0.24,0.42,-0.145,-0.226,-0.071 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.45,0.64,-0.039,-0.108,0.022 +TFT,PatchTST,0.58,0.485,0.675,0.01,-0.054,0.06 +TFT,DeepAR,0.6,0.505,0.695,0.035,-0.013,0.087 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.162,0.065,0.248 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.51,0.7,0.139,0.058,0.21 +TFT,CatBoost,0.7,0.61,0.79,0.114,0.034,0.182 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.82,0.74,0.89,0.35,0.288,0.412 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.29,-0.343,-0.241 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.105,0.05,0.165,-0.173,-0.226,-0.124 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.095,0.04,0.155,-0.174,-0.223,-0.129 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.138,-0.195,-0.085 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.155,-0.212,-0.099 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.155,0.085,0.23,-0.159,-0.213,-0.108 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.205,0.13,0.285,-0.138,-0.195,-0.086 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.12,0.28,-0.173,-0.239,-0.111 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.135,0.07,0.21,-0.114,-0.163,-0.066 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.215,0.135,0.295,-0.101,-0.147,-0.053 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.45,0.36,0.55,0.038,-0.023,0.098 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.68,0.58,0.76,0.2,0.124,0.268 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.73,0.63,0.81,0.183,0.114,0.245 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.71,0.61,0.79,0.486,0.353,0.603 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.77,0.68,0.85,0.321,0.25,0.391 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.46,0.37,0.55,0.047,-0.017,0.103 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.55,0.45,0.64,0.072,0.022,0.124 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.67,0.57,0.76,0.194,0.118,0.263 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.73,0.63,0.81,0.172,0.105,0.233 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.147,0.098,0.192 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.374,0.322,0.43 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.55,0.489,0.605 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.88,0.81,0.94,0.553,0.487,0.611 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.613,-0.757,-0.479 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.466,-0.598,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.468,-0.603,-0.355 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.422,-0.552,-0.307 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.205,0.125,0.285,-0.443,-0.575,-0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.393,-0.521,-0.285 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.377,-0.496,-0.274 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.32,0.24,0.42,-0.25,-0.366,-0.142 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.355,-0.446,-0.276 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.231,-0.316,-0.149 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.233,-0.312,-0.16 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.216,-0.293,-0.144 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.22,0.14,0.31,-0.194,-0.274,-0.117 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.21,0.4,-0.231,-0.327,-0.146 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.23,0.16,0.32,-0.17,-0.249,-0.093 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.28,0.2,0.37,-0.156,-0.233,-0.08 +PatchTST,TFT,0.42,0.325,0.515,-0.01,-0.064,0.051 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.54,0.45,0.63,-0.05,-0.115,0.016 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.57,0.475,0.67,0.026,-0.023,0.082 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.154,0.057,0.244 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.57,0.47,0.67,0.13,0.044,0.214 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.63,0.54,0.73,0.105,0.034,0.172 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.343,0.275,0.418 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.391,-0.486,-0.31 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.264,-0.344,-0.191 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.266,-0.346,-0.194 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.19,0.12,0.28,-0.249,-0.335,-0.169 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-0.226,-0.311,-0.153 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.17,0.34,-0.264,-0.35,-0.19 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.201,-0.28,-0.134 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.22,0.15,0.31,-0.187,-0.259,-0.121 +DeepAR,TFT,0.4,0.305,0.495,-0.037,-0.096,0.013 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.36,0.55,-0.078,-0.141,-0.022 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.43,0.33,0.525,-0.027,-0.09,0.022 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.535,0.44,0.63,0.131,0.042,0.215 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.585,0.49,0.68,0.107,0.031,0.177 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.63,0.53,0.73,0.081,0.018,0.141 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.785,0.705,0.86,0.326,0.264,0.385 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.601,-0.751,-0.466 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.11,0.05,0.17,-0.455,-0.592,-0.346 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.457,-0.598,-0.341 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.14,0.07,0.21,-0.438,-0.573,-0.315 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.19,0.12,0.27,-0.412,-0.544,-0.298 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.24,-0.455,-0.583,-0.342 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-0.383,-0.515,-0.278 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.366,-0.492,-0.262 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.42,0.32,0.52,-0.194,-0.33,-0.069 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.33,0.24,0.43,-0.241,-0.357,-0.134 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.182,-0.323,-0.061 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.465,0.37,0.56,-0.151,-0.273,-0.043 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.41,0.6,-0.021,-0.061,0.02 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.755,0.67,0.835,0.38,0.234,0.517 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.151,0.111,0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.835,0.77,0.895,0.218,0.166,0.273 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.438,0.386,0.484 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.97,0.93,1.0,0.442,0.387,0.49 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.58,-0.711,-0.461 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.436,-0.543,-0.345 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.438,-0.556,-0.342 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.393,-0.505,-0.299 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.17,0.1,0.25,-0.414,-0.533,-0.315 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.365,-0.476,-0.272 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.348,-0.449,-0.261 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.27,0.19,0.37,-0.224,-0.324,-0.129 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.4,0.59,0.021,-0.021,0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.49,0.395,0.595,-0.028,-0.071,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.46,0.36,0.57,-0.058,-0.147,0.021 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.84,0.77,0.905,0.224,0.17,0.278 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.558,-0.682,-0.446 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.13,-0.416,-0.516,-0.332 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.418,-0.53,-0.328 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.1,0.05,0.17,-0.399,-0.518,-0.298 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.374,-0.476,-0.285 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.415,-0.52,-0.32 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.345,-0.449,-0.256 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.12,0.06,0.19,-0.329,-0.427,-0.248 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.4,0.3,0.49,-0.161,-0.266,-0.062 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.27,0.19,0.37,-0.207,-0.304,-0.117 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.43,0.33,0.53,-0.15,-0.272,-0.046 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.415,0.32,0.51,-0.12,-0.215,-0.032 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.51,0.405,0.605,0.027,-0.014,0.066 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.685,0.59,0.775,0.381,0.235,0.518 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.75,0.67,0.83,0.169,0.119,0.218 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.88,0.825,0.93,0.234,0.184,0.287 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.91,0.85,0.96,0.449,0.389,0.499 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.89,0.82,0.95,0.453,0.393,0.505 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.48,-2.169,-0.999 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.08,0.03,0.14,-1.261,-1.901,-0.816 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.05,0.16,-1.261,-1.898,-0.814 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.16,0.09,0.24,-1.198,-1.815,-0.764 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.08,0.22,-1.242,-1.889,-0.793 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.158,-1.773,-0.727 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.13,0.07,0.2,-1.133,-1.742,-0.717 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.29,0.21,0.39,-0.945,-1.517,-0.545 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.245,0.165,0.33,-0.612,-1.072,-0.305 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.315,0.225,0.41,-0.616,-1.074,-0.308 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.57,0.47,0.67,-0.384,-0.762,-0.111 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.625,0.535,0.715,-0.27,-0.651,-0.012 -AutoETS,Naive,0.76,0.68,0.84,0.059,-0.228,0.255 -AutoETS,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.062,-0.223,0.256 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-0.901,-1.124,-0.718 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.01,0.1,-0.728,-0.919,-0.575 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.73,-0.934,-0.567 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.676,-0.87,-0.517 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.701,-0.889,-0.542 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.642,-0.83,-0.491 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.622,-0.804,-0.477 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.23,0.15,0.32,-0.473,-0.641,-0.333 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.13,0.07,0.19,-0.178,-0.24,-0.124 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.17,0.33,-0.203,-0.279,-0.135 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.43,0.33,0.53,0.278,0.1,0.433 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.078,0.007,0.148 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.78,0.92,0.338,0.277,0.392 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.342,0.277,0.399 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.48,0.38,0.58,-0.029,-0.104,0.041 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.91,0.86,0.96,0.245,0.196,0.296 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.514,-0.585,-0.445 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.376,-0.441,-0.315 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.377,-0.448,-0.311 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.07,0.02,0.12,-0.359,-0.438,-0.289 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.06,0.02,0.11,-0.335,-0.4,-0.274 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.04,0.16,-0.375,-0.456,-0.307 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.08,0.03,0.14,-0.307,-0.37,-0.249 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.05,0.16,-0.292,-0.358,-0.229 +CatBoost,TFT,0.3,0.21,0.39,-0.128,-0.222,-0.035 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.173,-0.237,-0.109 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.37,0.27,0.46,-0.117,-0.207,-0.035 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.37,0.27,0.47,-0.088,-0.164,-0.018 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.54,0.43,0.64,0.055,-0.021,0.128 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.52,0.42,0.62,0.028,-0.043,0.094 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.266,0.199,0.33 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.063,-1.27,-0.883 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-0.875,-1.061,-0.724 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-0.877,-1.074,-0.729 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.818,-1.003,-0.658 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.005,0.065,-0.846,-1.025,-0.7 -Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.781,-0.961,-0.632 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.04,0.01,0.09,-0.852,-1.039,-0.701 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.04,0.01,0.08,-0.819,-1.004,-0.66 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.015,0.0,0.04,-0.874,-1.055,-0.723 +Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.07,0.03,0.13,-0.781,-0.96,-0.632 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.03,0.0,0.06,-0.76,-0.929,-0.623 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.18,0.11,0.26,-0.538,-0.702,-0.405 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.598,-0.753,-0.474 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.165,0.105,0.23,-0.279,-0.376,-0.198 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.12,0.07,0.175,-0.306,-0.403,-0.225 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.375,0.285,0.465,0.213,0.012,0.394 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.31,0.22,0.4,-0.085,-0.174,-0.008 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.2,0.13,0.28,-0.523,-0.717,-0.38 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.215,0.14,0.295,-0.483,-0.625,-0.359 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.16,0.095,0.23,-0.288,-0.385,-0.204 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.09,0.04,0.14,-0.324,-0.42,-0.243 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.26,0.18,0.35,-0.363,-0.492,-0.248 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.685,0.61,0.755,0.281,0.208,0.351 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.77,0.69,0.86,0.286,0.205,0.362 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.87,-2.256,-1.52 -Naive,TiRex,0.01,0.0,0.04,-1.608,-1.963,-1.301 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.01,0.0,0.03,-1.611,-1.972,-1.293 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.53,-1.877,-1.224 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.568,-1.912,-1.254 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.478,-1.816,-1.178 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.449,-1.767,-1.16 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.09,0.04,0.15,-1.224,-1.535,-0.956 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.779,-0.938,-0.629 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.09,0.04,0.15,-0.816,-0.997,-0.636 -Naive,AutoETS,0.24,0.16,0.32,-0.063,-0.343,0.186 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.08,0.22,-0.51,-0.644,-0.383 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.315,0.245,0.39,-0.391,-0.54,-0.263 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.84,0.77,0.91,0.007,-0.018,0.028 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.889,-2.297,-1.517 -Drift,TiRex,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.626,-1.992,-1.31 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.629,-2.005,-1.301 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.03,0.0,0.07,-1.547,-1.905,-1.228 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.02,0.1,-1.585,-1.953,-1.257 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.01,0.1,-1.495,-1.849,-1.182 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.02,0.0,0.05,-1.465,-1.797,-1.171 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.12,0.06,0.19,-1.239,-1.572,-0.95 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.03,0.0,0.07,-0.791,-0.961,-0.632 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.11,0.05,0.18,-0.828,-1.021,-0.649 -Drift,AutoETS,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.066,-0.344,0.183 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.21,0.13,0.29,-0.52,-0.664,-0.384 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.23,0.14,0.31,-0.401,-0.567,-0.258 -Drift,Naive,0.16,0.09,0.23,-0.007,-0.029,0.018 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv index d68782060dafacb45b6f583bc7c8e847d084dbb9..31ee470461940a967517b8d173325b50a491222d 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_MASE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.92857142857142,40.35527520955049,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,75.0,31.3787871700961,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.74999999999999,32.34128407289347,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,72.32142857142857,30.925782737555462,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,63.57142857142859,35.10126239252123,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.142857142857125,30.06698753539797,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.64285714285714,28.430405155187888,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,58.57142857142858,29.84835021519502,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,48.21428571428572,21.102265046417777,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,41.428571428571445,20.38664272330395,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoTheta,33.214285714285715,14.792523576771243,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,31.785714285714278,2.3088190733359215,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,13.928571428571432,-17.371605733693517,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,12.500000000000004,-17.19495252915997,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,85.50000000000001,40.35527492863492,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,72.99999999999999,32.341284052204614,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TiRex,72.75,31.37878712819341,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,71.0,29.889473184557,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,68.75000000000001,30.96058630074824,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,65.25,37.31565282683812,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,62.375,30.066987483189834,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,59.374999999999986,28.43040512442394,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,58.50000000000001,29.84834988479378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,56.25,30.455043900424116,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,50.74999999999999,26.15800221608241,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +TFT,50.0,25.36909549957551,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.74999999999999,22.043936094093443,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +PatchTST,43.0,23.853686364116655,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,42.5,21.286621636178083,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,37.75000000000001,20.242779035445857,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,32.75,14.792523584936335,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,32.0,2.308819055034983,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,13.999999999999998,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,13.249999999999998,-17.371605726274986,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,12.499999999999996,-17.194952506512085,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv index d762ad67358f49a0c2cc5e3d7d2fadf390d33f88..eb31cc6910b9e583944689de76de9d8b3edceb01 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_SQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,91.78571428571428,51.11726197861597,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,80.35714285714286,43.412654839288344,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,74.82142857142857,43.97585098003665,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.10714285714286,42.97306853626257,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,67.14285714285715,46.24923686371321,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,65.0,41.66951873570546,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.42857142857142,40.39825912219498,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,50.000000000000014,37.623889675747435,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,45.714285714285715,27.34922619892346,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,44.28571428571429,30.565231601448495,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,32.85714285714285,-9.388090977202147,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,25.71428571428572,8.46720438230043,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,16.42857142857143,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,12.85714285714286,-36.92812113307396,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,7.5,-36.00664551250195,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,90.25000000000001,51.11726173711795,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,79.5,43.41265479231578,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,76.25,43.975850949879494,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,73.25,42.985101438365106,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +FlowState,70.25,41.770607055033416,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,70.24999999999999,47.58870581866148,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,66.375,41.66951867743352,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,63.62500000000001,40.39825907941946,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +TFT,53.87500000000001,35.25719900873755,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,51.24999999999999,34.960543144337095,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,49.249999999999986,37.62388936758738,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,46.37499999999999,30.866627409785742,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,46.00000000000001,28.07755146139175,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +AutoARIMA,45.999999999999986,31.41463828851714,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +CatBoost,39.25,28.408790986693145,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,35.5,23.985315488022508,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,32.24999999999999,-9.388091327894731,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,24.999999999999993,8.467204297422992,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,15.5,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,11.75,-36.92812112198962,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,8.249999999999998,-36.00664557240114,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv index 4b145df858cc3690229cfdddd1a2f88313a865d9..ee5c08d0e434172c28018c00a6879d390d240ca8 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WAPE.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,84.28571428571428,46.429455786437416,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,73.75,37.92043808590599,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,71.96428571428574,35.778831965851445,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.07142857142856,41.95874727359017,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,68.92857142857143,36.44667253780616,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,62.85714285714285,34.00276486111785,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,59.64285714285714,32.04345477073951,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,52.5,32.56219074595378,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.142857142857146,25.87488858437059,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,42.5,22.038096719942146,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,35.71428571428572,11.232208535480337,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,30.35714285714285,18.487358814453003,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -Naive,18.928571428571427,-7.338384818262655,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,15.357142857142861,-6.9443177598616845,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,14.999999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,82.5,46.42945599946328,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,73.5,37.92043843564766,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,72.0,43.80144484440236,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,69.5,36.45959491236115,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +Toto-1.0,69.0,35.839403979765414,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +TiRex,68.5,36.44667265137919,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,61.87499999999999,34.00276523407868,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,57.87500000000001,32.04345534981628,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,53.49999999999999,32.562191014123485,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +TFT,52.25000000000001,30.29729199130888,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,51.74999999999999,32.95419144870776,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,48.24999999999999,26.82155106405505,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +LightGBM,47.74999999999999,28.35776598037154,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,46.75,31.31052759701759,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,42.75000000000001,22.965967222391914,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,40.00000000000001,23.8323881195716,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,35.25,11.232208577032987,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,31.250000000000007,18.48735923310082,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Naive,16.75,-7.33838516088694,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,14.499999999999998,-6.944317709784564,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,14.499999999999996,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv index 93aadcede063b3ed81d35eb51bea2e72318a3086..bfdddd8ac60fd7aa72fe88cebca269a9c6f32e23 100644 --- a/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/leaderboard_WQL.csv @@ -1,16 +1,22 @@ model_name,win_rate,skill_score,median_training_time_s_per100,median_inference_time_s_per100,training_corpus_overlap,num_failures -Chronos-2,88.92857142857142,57.23698538544018,0.0,1.1884657561826923,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,78.21428571428574,49.10426514594376,0.0,0.39943635916666664,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,76.60714285714285,50.016127718460055,0.0,5.231317789855769,0.05,0.0 -Toto-1.0,74.10714285714288,48.55676262651899,0.0,44.314211595100275,0.05,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,71.07142857142857,53.494037454973565,0.0,176.29508545862691,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,66.42857142857143,46.50676316081979,0.0,0.4247097227343751,0.3,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,61.7857142857143,45.16312334798593,0.0,0.4779255196130952,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,47.85714285714286,41.57117440400828,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,47.14285714285714,29.950996586481104,0.0,261.7837352532143,0.0,10.0 -AutoARIMA,47.14285714285714,33.733406325438665,0.0,79.5753111749051,0.0,10.0 -AutoETS,30.35714285714285,-0.6607123551083394,0.0,6.365997598583334,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,23.928571428571427,9.363488981349711,0.0,5.05998791875,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,18.21428571428571,0.0,0.0,0.7680427387619048,0.0,0.0 -Naive,11.428571428571429,-33.75682103916535,0.0,0.8385289361666667,0.0,0.0 -Drift,6.7857142857142865,-32.08602588008633,0.0,0.8343652471666667,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-2,88.75,57.23698536593628,0.0,1.1862588189,0.0,0.0 +TimesFM-2.5,78.0,50.01612769240715,0.0,5.2455996205288455,0.05,0.0 +TiRex,77.50000000000001,49.10426511916396,0.0,0.39641162208333336,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,74.25,54.56497559001957,0.0,270.3091542850756,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,72.24999999999999,48.587775840553334,0.0,44.14851767984478,0.05,0.0 +FlowState,71.0,48.92632727441107,0.0,3.2446928825,0.05,0.0 +Moirai-2.0,67.37500000000001,46.50676313572143,0.0,0.40595794726562495,0.3,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,63.125,45.163123321951495,0.0,0.49442661169642854,0.0,0.0 +TFT,54.62499999999999,41.22673219213343,1888.8738837686383,1.1259465993475275,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,53.25,43.384946426947444,1517.0892329326548,0.6588399024480769,0.0,0.0 +Sundial-Base,46.5,41.57117437735931,0.0,8.290017479345238,0.0,0.0 +AutoARIMA,46.24999999999999,34.59301612432139,0.0,95.12863658364125,0.0,5.0 +Stat. Ensemble,45.74999999999999,30.64976777590186,0.0,252.33031052571428,0.0,5.0 +DeepAR,44.62499999999999,35.666728318741306,2859.1640691925713,1.6232729878660712,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,40.75,33.32014356092802,93.9550529325,0.578047204375,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,37.75000000000001,28.748806501732805,7.469424907204671,0.5472496610677083,0.0,0.0 +AutoETS,30.25,-0.6607124076495996,0.0,6.190848325833333,0.0,0.0 +AutoTheta,23.0,9.363488940302078,0.0,5.100141755178572,0.0,0.0 +Seasonal Naive,16.750000000000004,0.0,0.0,0.7938363827857143,0.0,0.0 +Naive,10.500000000000002,-33.756820931714884,0.0,0.8122960976190476,0.0,0.0 +Drift,7.75,-32.08602565701002,0.0,0.8236461341666665,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv index 0259ee05dcb1b1ada773f2b92f2e49aca76fd387..719dd436eee0a694a0b9066346d1a37edb8ef16d 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_MASE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.131,0.053,0.212 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.118,0.039,0.207 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.137,0.052,0.225 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.081,0.012,0.148 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.131,0.053,0.212 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.149,0.066,0.235 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.136,0.052,0.224 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.048,-0.004,0.102 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.147,0.07,0.228 -Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.095,0.241 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.15,0.066,0.228 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.244,0.156,0.333 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.251,0.169,0.33 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.3,0.213,0.381 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.389,0.257,0.524 +Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.167,0.095,0.241 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.142,0.068,0.217 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.192,0.092,0.3 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.201,0.084,0.305 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.235,0.147,0.328 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.217,0.107,0.315 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.242,0.157,0.325 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.32,0.476 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.492,0.389,0.595 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.491,0.387,0.599 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.15,-0.269,-0.056 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.062,0.022 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.007,-0.025,0.037 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.057,-0.225,0.074 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.019,-0.006,0.046 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.01,0.074 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.117,0.12 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.13,0.072,0.208 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.138,0.09,0.191 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.195,0.12,0.277 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.156,0.442 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.314,0.237,0.395 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.415,0.317,0.505 -TiRex,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.414,0.326,0.502 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.134,-0.261,-0.041 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.022,0.058 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.02,-0.008,0.053 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.043,-0.219,0.093 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.014,-0.022,0.058 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.575,0.399,0.775,0.035,-0.028,0.11 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.02,-0.009,0.051 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.079,-0.238,0.036 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.033,-0.006,0.073 -TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.055,0.011,0.104 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.036,-0.106,0.138 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.08,0.218 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.15,0.096,0.208 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.206,0.122,0.3 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.307,0.168,0.445 +TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.725,0.525,0.9,0.055,0.011,0.104 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.088,0.124 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.084,-0.052,0.215 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.093,-0.058,0.218 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.07,0.211 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.111,-0.018,0.213 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.14,0.086,0.198 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.323,0.242,0.409 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.424,0.335,0.513 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.423,0.334,0.508 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.158,-0.29,-0.054 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.007,-0.039,0.024 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.021,-0.056,0.008 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.15,-0.269,-0.056 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.014,-0.062,0.022 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.021,-0.066,0.094 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.006,-0.025,0.036 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.095,-0.237,0.018 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.019,-0.006,0.046 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.022,-0.117,0.12 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.041,0.01,0.074 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.6,0.35,0.85,0.013,-0.112,0.113 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.071,-0.073,0.211 +TiRex,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.081,-0.069,0.196 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.12,0.062,0.195 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.099,-0.037,0.203 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.128,0.079,0.183 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.314,0.237,0.395 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.175,-0.307,-0.07 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.601,-0.036,-0.124,0.028 +FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.104,0.062 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.375,0.75,-0.016,-0.114,0.064 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.118,-0.28,0.02 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,-0.003,-0.097,0.082 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.001,-0.126,0.083 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.02,-0.037,0.088 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.008,-0.156,0.106 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.051,-0.095,0.169 +FlowState,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.061,-0.093,0.171 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.101,0.029,0.169 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.079,-0.034,0.168 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.109,0.039,0.189 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.299,0.239,0.36 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.158,-0.289,-0.054 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.02,-0.054,0.009 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.006,-0.037,0.024 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.25,0.625,0.015,-0.068,0.102 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.064,-0.239,0.077 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.012,-0.023,0.044 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.035,-0.01,0.085 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.015,-0.124,0.125 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.125,0.057,0.207 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.132,0.079,0.187 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.189,0.104,0.29 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.293,0.148,0.438 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.309,0.226,0.399 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.411,0.314,0.507 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.411,0.321,0.501 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.088,-0.174,-0.012 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.054,-0.08,0.184 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.041,-0.103,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.06,-0.083,0.193 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.101,-0.259,0.017 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.013,-0.022,0.044 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.016,-0.123,0.125 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.035,-0.009,0.085 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.007,-0.12,0.111 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.065,-0.081,0.21 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.075,-0.087,0.205 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.114,0.052,0.196 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.093,-0.045,0.2 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.123,0.071,0.181 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.31,0.227,0.399 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.051,-0.113,0.004 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.192 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.087,-0.019,0.192 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.106,-0.02,0.219 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.092,-0.017,0.206 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.072,-0.064,0.201 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.349,0.8,0.093,-0.027,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.075,-0.054,0.19 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.177,0.049,0.304 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.185,0.068,0.296 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.125,0.347 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.336,0.149,0.489 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.351,0.263,0.435 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.447,0.327,0.56 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.446,0.321,0.564 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.104,0.002,0.211 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.106,-0.027,0.223 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.024,0.224 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.099,0.003,0.195 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.151,0.035,0.283 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.16,0.006,0.291 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.851,0.196,0.088,0.308 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.177,0.035,0.304 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.204,0.103,0.305 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.373,0.279,0.458 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.172,-0.296,-0.075 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.049,0.006 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.034,-0.078,0.006 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.012,-0.046,0.023 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.078,-0.252,0.06 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.019,-0.049,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.575,0.003,-0.089,0.089 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.013,-0.046,0.022 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.116,-0.268,-0.002 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.023,-0.016,0.067 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.003,-0.129,0.111 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.114,0.044,0.201 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.122,0.058,0.186 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.179,0.096,0.273 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.284,0.138,0.433 +Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.023,-0.016,0.067 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.006,-0.125,0.093 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.053,-0.085,0.195 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.063,-0.085,0.185 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.103,0.034,0.189 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.082,-0.052,0.191 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.112,0.048,0.176 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.301,0.218,0.39 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.404,0.3,0.498 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.403,0.302,0.499 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.317,-0.105 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.08,-0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.058,-0.116,-0.011 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.036,-0.093,0.01 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.2,0.651,-0.103,-0.273,0.026 -Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.023,-0.072,0.015 -Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.02,-0.16,0.079 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.093,0.041,0.153 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.101,0.053,0.152 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.16,0.103,0.229 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.267,0.12,0.42 -Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.284,0.225,0.352 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.39,0.293,0.482 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.389,0.3,0.484 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.176,-0.296,-0.07 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.136,0.105 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.037,-0.16,0.096 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.142,0.11 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.081,-0.235,0.051 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.022,-0.136,0.105 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.001,-0.091,0.112 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.016,-0.143,0.11 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.119,-0.286,0.027 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.003,-0.125,0.114 -Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.02,-0.085,0.138 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.111,-0.023,0.246 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.119,-0.012,0.256 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.177,0.08,0.288 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.282,0.087,0.452 +Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.02,-0.085,0.138 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.009,-0.175,0.123 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.05,-0.144,0.219 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.06,-0.024,0.132 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.1,-0.035,0.242 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.7,0.499,0.9,0.079,-0.001,0.149 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.109,-0.023,0.252 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.298,0.209,0.391 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.402,0.297,0.533 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.401,0.276,0.545 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.323,-0.499,-0.185 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.15,-0.262,-0.077 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.166,-0.28,-0.087 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.142,-0.261,-0.061 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.216,-0.437,-0.051 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.128,-0.251,-0.046 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.102,-0.18,-0.043 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.125,-0.327,0.022 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.2,-0.317,-0.105 +Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.275,0.1,0.475,-0.058,-0.116,-0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.043,-0.08,-0.01 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.021,-0.097,0.035 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.037,-0.093,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.142,-0.288,-0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.023,-0.072,0.015 +Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.02,-0.16,0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.5,0.299,0.75,-0.029,-0.155,0.064 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.031,-0.103,0.152 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.041,-0.116,0.159 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.082,0.03,0.139 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.06,-0.081,0.166 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.091,0.045,0.139 +Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.284,0.225,0.352 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.166,-0.276,-0.073 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.142,0.081 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.4,0.15,0.65,-0.013,-0.127,0.101 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.008,-0.119,0.135 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.007,-0.124,0.107 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.109,-0.243,-0.003 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.102,0.111 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.009,-0.141,0.149 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.701,0.028,-0.069,0.134 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.058,0.007,0.139 +CatBoost,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.068,-0.104,0.212 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.108,0.009,0.213 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.087,-0.097,0.234 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.116,0.016,0.214 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.305,0.203,0.408 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.238,-0.43,-0.102 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.091,-0.273,0.049 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.076,-0.267,0.068 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.053,-0.203,0.087 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.07,-0.265,0.075 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.178,-0.394,-0.036 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.056,-0.243,0.078 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.053,-0.281,0.126 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.032,-0.18,0.094 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.062,-0.162,-0.007 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,TFT,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.011,-0.233,0.185 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.053,-0.055,0.153 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.03,-0.199,0.21 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.062,-0.07,0.174 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.262,0.148,0.374 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.251,-0.439,-0.092 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.103,-0.279,0.055 +TFT,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.088,-0.244,0.065 +TFT,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.064,-0.206,0.085 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.081,-0.258,0.08 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.191,-0.41,-0.006 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.067,-0.227,0.078 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.064,-0.152,0.024 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.043,-0.189,0.104 +TFT,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.073,-0.269,0.094 +TFT,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.011,-0.227,0.189 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.043,-0.139,0.21 +TFT,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.02,-0.079,0.104 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.052,-0.115,0.218 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.254,0.165,0.353 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.307,-0.488,-0.173 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.152,-0.268,-0.075 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.136,-0.242,-0.066 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.112,-0.203,-0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.129,-0.244,-0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.149,0.5,-0.244,-0.446,-0.096 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.115,-0.233,-0.036 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.111,-0.319,0.034 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.089,-0.162,-0.031 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.121,-0.271,-0.009 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.056,-0.18,0.052 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.045,-0.266,0.122 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.776,0.009,-0.04,0.05 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.074,-0.0,0.155 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.192,0.055,0.351 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.211,0.122,0.301 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.328,0.221,0.426 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.232,0.422 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.335,-0.493,-0.204 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.16,-0.237,-0.099 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.177,-0.263,-0.106 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.153,-0.23,-0.086 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.227,-0.42,-0.072 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.138,-0.228,-0.061 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.112,-0.179,-0.056 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.135,-0.345,0.012 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.224,0.6,-0.009,-0.053,0.039 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.024,-0.213,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.01,-0.04,0.05 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.22,0.138,0.304 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.277,-0.46,-0.12 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.125,-0.271,0.018 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.11,-0.254,0.036 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.086,-0.203,0.033 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.103,-0.25,0.043 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.215,-0.437,-0.036 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.089,-0.237,0.05 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.501,-0.085,-0.175,0.001 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.064,-0.2,0.075 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.095,-0.305,0.088 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.031,-0.266,0.166 +PatchTST,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.02,-0.116,0.074 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.023,-0.144,0.176 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.033,-0.113,0.185 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.239,0.13,0.344 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.32,-0.482,-0.187 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.163,-0.247,-0.094 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.147,-0.224,-0.086 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.123,-0.234,-0.041 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.14,-0.221,-0.076 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.256,-0.44,-0.115 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.126,-0.214,-0.051 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.122,-0.337,0.022 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.1,-0.162,-0.048 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.132,-0.273,-0.016 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.066,-0.21,0.065 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.055,-0.278,0.103 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.01,-0.053,0.038 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.034,-0.227,0.102 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.066,-0.014,0.158 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.185,0.034,0.342 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.204,0.115,0.294 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.322,0.212,0.425 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.321,0.227,0.417 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.429,-0.615,-0.27 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.242,-0.384,-0.137 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.259,-0.429,-0.138 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.234,-0.409,-0.117 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.313,-0.532,-0.143 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.218,-0.376,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.191,-0.297,-0.115 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.215,-0.405,-0.086 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.08,-0.183,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.07,-0.188,0.013 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.128,-0.064,0.315 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.148,0.088,0.2 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.274,0.184,0.368 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.273,0.182,0.37 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.638,-1.102,-0.346 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.424,-0.791,-0.184 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.444,-0.803,-0.203 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.414,-0.78,-0.173 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.505,-0.957,-0.175 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.397,-0.764,-0.16 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.365,-0.725,-0.136 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.393,-0.824,-0.095 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.238,-0.54,-0.059 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.227,-0.519,-0.035 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.147,-0.46,0.06 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.023,-0.279,0.233 -AutoETS,Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.168,-0.073,0.351 -AutoETS,Drift,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.166,-0.056,0.342 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.213,0.129,0.298 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.677,-0.909,-0.471 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.457,-0.653,-0.311 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.478,-0.692,-0.32 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.448,-0.665,-0.292 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.541,-0.77,-0.357 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.457,-0.653,-0.311 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.426,-0.562,-0.314 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.448,-0.664,-0.293 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.595,-0.845,-0.388 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.43,-0.64,-0.278 -Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.397,-0.544,-0.29 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.425,-0.642,-0.265 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.267,-0.431,-0.139 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.256,-0.417,-0.13 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.174,-0.25,-0.096 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.024,-0.304,0.218 +Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.397,-0.544,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.438,-0.689,-0.254 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.354,-0.597,-0.174 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.34,-0.546,-0.197 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.283,-0.436,-0.16 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.313,-0.524,-0.149 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.27,-0.425,-0.148 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.6,0.4,0.775,0.148,0.005,0.284 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.147,0.006,0.293 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.968,-1.469,-0.636 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.71,-1.022,-0.464 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.735,-1.055,-0.504 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.699,-1.028,-0.458 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.809,-1.274,-0.485 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.678,-0.994,-0.428 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.64,-0.931,-0.415 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.673,-1.142,-0.422 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.488,-0.741,-0.284 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.474,-0.74,-0.269 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.377,-0.582,-0.225 -Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.201,-0.54,0.068 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.225,0.6,-0.174,-0.396,-0.005 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,-0.002,-0.052,0.045 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.965,-1.493,-0.631 -Drift,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.708,-1.01,-0.484 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.732,-1.033,-0.5 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.697,-1.005,-0.474 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.806,-1.295,-0.473 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.676,-0.994,-0.432 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.637,-0.937,-0.428 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.671,-1.196,-0.381 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.485,-0.731,-0.303 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.472,-0.715,-0.294 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.375,-0.588,-0.223 -Drift,AutoETS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.2,-0.519,0.053 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.172,-0.415,-0.006 -Drift,Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,0.002,-0.047,0.05 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv index f99b84187fdb19a71b16e89ca10e7dfb129610e3..65343881662cdd3ce4ba5d94d68a94722e138faa 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_SQL.csv @@ -2,225 +2,256 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_l Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.136,0.06,0.217 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.127,0.049,0.215 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.056,0.234 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.091,0.024,0.158 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.143,0.056,0.233 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.067,0.012,0.124 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.161,0.079,0.242 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.162,0.082,0.243 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.18,0.104,0.255 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.245,0.114,0.358 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.248,0.133,0.354 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.216,0.139,0.287 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.327,0.248,0.403 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.296,0.22,0.371 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.541,0.378,0.703 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.381,0.543 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.293,0.159,0.412 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.287,0.211,0.363 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.32,0.238,0.398 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.317,0.256,0.376 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.511,0.425,0.58 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.643,0.567,0.719 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.641,0.56,0.72 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.158,-0.277,-0.063 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.01,-0.066,0.03 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.008,-0.031,0.042 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.053,-0.216,0.076 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.007,-0.031,0.042 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.08,-0.223,0.037 +TiRex,FlowState,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.028,-0.064,0.099 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.03,-0.001,0.062 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.051,0.02,0.085 +TiRex,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.126,-0.035,0.248 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.13,-0.018,0.236 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.093,-0.028,0.186 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.221,0.148,0.295 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.141,0.234 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.47,0.277,0.659 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.382,0.282,0.465 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.181,0.031,0.305 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.175,0.132,0.219 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.213,0.141,0.288 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.21,0.103,0.293 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.434,0.349,0.509 -TiRex,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.587,0.503,0.656 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.501,0.656 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.146,-0.274,-0.051 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.031,0.062 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.018,-0.018,0.058 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.042,-0.218,0.092 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.325,0.726,0.017,-0.018,0.057 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.069,-0.226,0.05 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.038,-0.018,0.103 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.04,-0.01,0.096 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.06,0.009,0.121 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.135,-0.031,0.252 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.139,0.011,0.246 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.102,-0.022,0.189 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.229,0.15,0.307 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.193,0.134,0.252 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.476,0.285,0.662 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.388,0.288,0.479 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.19,0.024,0.323 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.183,0.127,0.24 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.221,0.144,0.299 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.217,0.116,0.3 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.44,0.354,0.52 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.591,0.512,0.66 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.588,0.509,0.663 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.167,-0.305,-0.06 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.166,-0.304,-0.06 Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.008,-0.044,0.03 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.018,-0.061,0.018 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.274,0.675,-0.018,-0.061,0.018 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.061,-0.244,0.087 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.022,-0.016,0.061 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.043,-0.009,0.098 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.088,-0.249,0.036 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,0.021,-0.067,0.105 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.023,-0.016,0.061 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.043,-0.009,0.098 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.119,-0.051,0.249 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.123,-0.016,0.233 Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.086,-0.048,0.191 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.215,0.135,0.297 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.179,0.122,0.233 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.466,0.267,0.659 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.377,0.27,0.474 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.175,0.016,0.309 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.169,0.114,0.224 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.207,0.129,0.29 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.204,0.095,0.291 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.43,0.339,0.517 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.584,0.501,0.655 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.581,0.501,0.653 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.1,-0.188,-0.024 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.05,-0.083,0.178 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.041,-0.101,0.179 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.057,-0.096,0.196 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.072,-0.141,-0.012 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.074,-0.038,0.182 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.064,-0.053,0.185 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.081,-0.038,0.2 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.079,-0.064,0.204 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.098,-0.026,0.214 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.138,0.011,0.249 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.26,0.135,0.372 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.226,0.114,0.333 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.499,0.281,0.68 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.413,0.306,0.507 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.462,0.355,0.55 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.607,0.512,0.693 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.605,0.501,0.696 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.1,-0.026,0.22 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.101,-0.015,0.209 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.121,0.01,0.225 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.19,0.019,0.337 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.194,0.041,0.329 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.16,0.033,0.269 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.242,0.076,0.388 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.236,0.135,0.334 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.271,0.161,0.374 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.268,0.176,0.353 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.476,0.369,0.563 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.191,-0.319,-0.086 +FlowState,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.029,-0.11,0.06 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.039,-0.115,0.018 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.35,0.775,-0.021,-0.118,0.063 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.111,-0.282,0.025 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.002,-0.099,0.1 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.023,-0.039,0.107 +FlowState,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,-0.068,0.221 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.105,-0.021,0.205 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.066,-0.056,0.146 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.158,-0.01,0.29 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.151,0.083,0.227 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.19,0.109,0.265 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.187,0.07,0.278 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.418,0.347,0.483 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.193,-0.321,-0.09 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.031,-0.066,0.001 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.041,-0.106,0.009 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.023,-0.065,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.085,-0.256,0.061 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.023,-0.065,0.016 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.113,-0.265,0.015 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.002,-0.111,0.09 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.021,-0.019,0.068 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.099,-0.066,0.23 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.103,-0.052,0.224 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.065,-0.067,0.167 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.197,0.115,0.28 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.16,0.099,0.221 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.456,0.251,0.651 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.363,0.256,0.456 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.156,-0.01,0.296 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.15,0.089,0.207 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.189,0.109,0.272 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.185,0.082,0.269 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.417,0.325,0.5 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.574,0.481,0.65 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.571,0.477,0.649 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.219,-0.342,-0.117 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.053,-0.093,-0.021 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.064,-0.137,-0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.045,-0.108,0.009 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.109,-0.272,0.025 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.045,-0.109,0.009 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.137,-0.29,-0.011 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.024,-0.119,0.038 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.022,-0.073,0.019 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.079,-0.093,0.209 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.084,-0.082,0.206 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.044,-0.092,0.148 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.18,0.111,0.25 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.142,0.097,0.188 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.443,0.237,0.648 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.349,0.248,0.437 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.138,-0.037,0.272 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.131,0.091,0.175 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.171,0.103,0.237 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.167,0.063,0.245 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.404,0.324,0.474 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.565,0.479,0.636 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.562,0.476,0.639 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.324,-0.557,-0.129 +TFT,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.144,-0.329,0.034 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.156,-0.336,0.03 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.136,-0.331,0.048 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.235,-0.509,-0.02 +TFT,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.112,-0.284,0.063 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.11,-0.299,0.062 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.086,-0.265,0.085 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.701,0.005,-0.106,0.111 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.038,-0.154,0.071 +TFT,DeepAR,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.064,-0.005,0.134 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.056,-0.125,0.229 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.1,-0.095,0.28 +TFT,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.096,-0.106,0.256 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.353,0.242,0.461 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.331,-0.548,-0.154 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.149,-0.309,0.018 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.161,-0.327,-0.011 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.141,-0.304,0.016 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.241,-0.49,-0.042 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.117,-0.258,0.021 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.115,-0.289,0.049 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.091,-0.259,0.076 +PatchTST,TFT,0.5,0.299,0.7,-0.005,-0.125,0.096 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.043,-0.145,0.049 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.059,-0.052,0.172 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.052,-0.11,0.208 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.096,-0.081,0.249 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.092,-0.101,0.256 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.35,0.229,0.457 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.276,-0.403,-0.161 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.102,-0.229,0.027 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.113,-0.233,0.022 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.094,-0.237,0.046 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.16,-0.331,-0.011 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.094,-0.237,0.045 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.19,-0.368,-0.034 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.071,-0.171,0.053 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.069,-0.2,0.063 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.047,-0.174,0.085 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.037,-0.076,0.133 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.041,-0.052,0.127 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.141,-0.003,0.27 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.102,-0.03,0.236 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.42,0.173,0.64 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.319,0.205,0.422 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.5,0.25,0.7,0.098,-0.028,0.21 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.091,-0.042,0.229 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.133,-0.012,0.264 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.129,-0.02,0.248 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.376,0.278,0.468 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.544,0.446,0.644 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.541,0.431,0.645 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.486,-0.675,-0.329 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.284,-0.419,-0.174 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.297,-0.444,-0.177 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.274,-0.422,-0.157 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.352,-0.592,-0.156 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.246,-0.388,-0.13 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.219,-0.333,-0.124 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.165,-0.369,0.003 -Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.046,-0.11,0.011 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.34,0.109,0.584 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.206,0.119,0.291 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.625,0.95,0.273,0.165,0.37 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.469,0.372,0.556 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.466,0.371,0.555 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.42,-0.589,-0.283 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.227,-0.306,-0.164 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.239,-0.336,-0.155 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.218,-0.304,-0.139 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.292,-0.499,-0.129 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.19,-0.283,-0.109 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.165,-0.231,-0.108 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.308,0.029 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.044,-0.011,0.099 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.414,-0.702,-0.189 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.222,-0.44,-0.032 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.234,-0.476,-0.025 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.213,-0.448,-0.017 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.319,-0.634,-0.082 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.187,-0.408,0.01 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.185,-0.421,0.01 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.16,-0.374,0.036 +DeepAR,TFT,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.068,-0.155,0.005 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.063,-0.208,0.05 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.3,0.75,-0.108,-0.266,0.027 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.008,-0.209,0.186 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.039,-0.193,0.236 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.034,-0.199,0.213 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.181,0.431 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.403,-0.57,-0.267 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.212,-0.281,-0.152 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.224,-0.316,-0.146 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.203,-0.289,-0.129 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.309,-0.501,-0.156 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.178,-0.294,-0.09 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.176,-0.261,-0.097 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.151,-0.213,-0.1 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.059,-0.298,0.111 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.055,-0.262,0.099 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.1,-0.297,0.041 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.008,-0.228,0.173 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.36,0.124,0.595 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.241,0.139,0.334 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.306,0.199,0.4 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.493,0.39,0.578 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.489,0.393,0.574 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.177,-2.364,-0.607 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.888,-1.935,-0.384 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.908,-1.961,-0.399 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.874,-1.929,-0.365 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.995,-2.122,-0.391 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.84,-1.865,-0.335 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.796,-1.839,-0.31 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.725,-1.781,-0.209 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.515,-1.402,-0.122 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.564,-1.47,-0.141 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.216,-0.997,0.152 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.094,-0.891,0.27 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.178,-0.412,0.473 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.171,-0.441,0.461 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.19,-0.615 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.618,-0.87,-0.393 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.634,-0.92,-0.405 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.605,-0.903,-0.37 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.703,-1.03,-0.441 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.569,-0.838,-0.344 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.536,-0.778,-0.33 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.467,-0.731,-0.257 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.26,-0.411,-0.135 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.318,-0.501,-0.161 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.178,-0.18,0.499 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.085,-0.091,0.214 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.332,0.212,0.436 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.327,0.202,0.436 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.046,-0.009,0.1 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.042,-0.085,0.142 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.314,0.21,0.404 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.471,-0.662,-0.312 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.271,-0.404,-0.165 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.284,-0.427,-0.168 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.261,-0.408,-0.148 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.372,-0.598,-0.191 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.235,-0.36,-0.122 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.233,-0.373,-0.122 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.207,-0.311,-0.115 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.111,-0.389,0.087 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.106,-0.332,0.075 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.153,-0.358,0.012 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.04,-0.308,0.161 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.049,-0.111,0.009 +Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.005,-0.137,0.1 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.825,0.65,0.95,0.281,0.176,0.373 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.465,-0.603,-0.344 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.265,-0.414,-0.115 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.278,-0.429,-0.131 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.256,-0.41,-0.105 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.366,-0.545,-0.214 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.229,-0.385,-0.075 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.227,-0.368,-0.089 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.201,-0.325,-0.067 +CatBoost,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.106,-0.345,0.096 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.101,-0.343,0.092 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.148,-0.329,0.019 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.036,-0.27,0.166 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.044,-0.166,0.078 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.005,-0.111,0.121 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.284,0.165,0.399 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.046,-1.382,-0.739 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.767,-1.038,-0.536 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.785,-1.083,-0.548 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.07,-0.513 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.86,-1.222,-0.549 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.754,-1.072,-0.514 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.908,-1.29,-0.584 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.717,-0.936,-0.532 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.714,-1.001,-0.481 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.678,-0.902,-0.479 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.545,-0.856,-0.32 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.538,-0.841,-0.297 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.603,-0.879,-0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.375,-0.376,-0.587,-0.198 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.44,-0.667,-0.248 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.086,-0.371,0.471 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.093,-0.272,0.084 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.446,-0.757,-0.22 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.458,-0.679,-0.266 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.175,0.05,0.35,-0.39,-0.595,-0.213 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.397,-0.665,-0.197 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.7,0.525,0.85,0.27,0.133,0.386 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.265,0.114,0.397 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.801,-2.561,-1.309 -Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.42,-1.907,-1.013 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.444,-1.943,-1.05 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.401,-1.895,-1.005 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.547,-2.26,-1.05 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.347,-1.858,-0.926 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.297,-1.75,-0.918 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.195,-1.805,-0.806 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.885,-1.253,-0.593 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.972,-1.372,-0.64 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.217,-0.898,0.292 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.496,-0.774,-0.269 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.3,0.15,0.475,-0.369,-0.629,-0.153 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.007,-0.056,0.035 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.782,-2.572,-1.273 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.403,-1.908,-1.003 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.428,-1.966,-1.036 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.385,-1.884,-1.004 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.53,-2.286,-1.004 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.332,-1.849,-0.913 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.282,-1.772,-0.909 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.18,-1.816,-0.759 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.872,-1.247,-0.591 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.959,-1.348,-0.648 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.206,-0.854,0.306 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.486,-0.774,-0.253 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.36,-0.657,-0.129 -Drift,Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.007,-0.037,0.053 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv index 458b5b50b74ae5db9a8772e5e4c1c4a79789b405..2f6ddcfd39db2f74b68ce1b745f4c9e2cef4bcd6 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WAPE.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.137,0.05,0.233 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.166,0.066,0.268 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.077,-0.013,0.171 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.047,-0.029,0.141 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.157,0.06,0.256 Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.157,0.058,0.271 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.165,0.065,0.268 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.188,0.089,0.289 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.212,0.118,0.303 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.206,0.107,0.294 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.277,0.174,0.377 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.313,0.193,0.434 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.397,0.241,0.536 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.343,0.226,0.444 -Chronos-2,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.501,0.379,0.603 -Chronos-2,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.499,0.377,0.608 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.231,0.091,0.351 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.201,0.104,0.293 +Chronos-2,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.252,0.124,0.378 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.22,0.093,0.333 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.268,0.163,0.373 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.305,0.182,0.432 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.464,0.359,0.555 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.159,-0.304,-0.053 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.033,-0.008,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.07,-0.251,0.076 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.35,0.8,-0.105,-0.261,0.012 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.023,-0.106,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.023,-0.02,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.324,0.75,0.032,-0.008,0.078 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.4,0.825,0.059,-0.004,0.127 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.775,0.575,0.95,0.086,0.029,0.152 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.079,-0.074,0.199 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.163,0.091,0.253 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.204,0.108,0.318 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.301,0.158,0.452 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.238,0.142,0.342 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.422,0.313,0.52 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.42,0.319,0.513 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.109,-0.063,0.243 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.074,-0.057,0.179 +TimesFM-2.5,LightGBM,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.133,-0.021,0.276 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.096,-0.087,0.226 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.152,0.08,0.242 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.194,0.1,0.309 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.379,0.274,0.476 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.199,-0.366,-0.071 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.034,-0.087,0.008 -Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.106,-0.297,0.055 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.011,-0.046,0.024 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.027,-0.016,0.074 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.055,-0.005,0.12 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.048,-0.117,0.184 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.134,0.048,0.24 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.176,0.075,0.298 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.277,0.122,0.444 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.212,0.109,0.322 -Toto-1.0,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.402,0.285,0.506 -Toto-1.0,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.399,0.295,0.5 -Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.358,0.245,0.461 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.083,-0.206,0.013 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.065,-0.082,0.201 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.096,-0.058,0.229 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.049,-0.164,0.028 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.65,0.095,-0.013,0.207 TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.087,-0.07,0.221 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.121,-0.022,0.246 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.146,0.026,0.259 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.139,0.017,0.248 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.6,0.9,0.217,0.089,0.337 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.256,0.114,0.395 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.346,0.157,0.502 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.288,0.166,0.392 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.459,0.336,0.581 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.457,0.334,0.579 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.42,0.325,0.506 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.116,-0.067,0.252 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.116,0.013,0.219 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.124,0.021,0.233 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.148,0.05,0.251 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.173,0.079,0.266 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.167,0.026,0.286 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.194,0.041,0.323 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.162,0.074,0.246 +TabPFN-TS,LightGBM,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.216,0.102,0.344 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.182,-0.016,0.332 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.232,0.131,0.341 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.27,0.16,0.391 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.339,0.522 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.186,-0.343,-0.063 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.024,-0.145,0.096 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.131,-0.337,0.062 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.0,-0.149,0.16 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.625,0.424,0.825,0.01,-0.142,0.152 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.575,0.375,0.8,0.037,-0.124,0.18 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.675,0.474,0.85,0.065,-0.034,0.187 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.058,-0.094,0.17 +FlowState,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.088,-0.092,0.238 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.052,-0.126,0.212 +FlowState,LightGBM,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.113,-0.06,0.27 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.075,-0.054,0.177 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.132,0.029,0.246 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.175,0.027,0.334 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.365,0.256,0.477 TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.186,-0.372,-0.061 TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.024,-0.085,0.019 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.01,-0.025,0.044 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.095,-0.283,0.065 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.131,-0.281,-0.013 +TiRex,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.0,-0.191,0.13 TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.009,-0.025,0.043 TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.037,-0.006,0.1 TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.065,0.005,0.127 TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.058,-0.113,0.2 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.143,0.068,0.24 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.185,0.09,0.304 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.284,0.128,0.449 -TiRex,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.123,0.325 -TiRex,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.408,0.283,0.514 -TiRex,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.406,0.297,0.506 +TiRex,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.088,-0.092,0.231 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.052,-0.093,0.161 +TiRex,LightGBM,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.113,-0.039,0.266 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.075,-0.15,0.23 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.132,0.055,0.228 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.175,0.076,0.297 TiRex,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.364,0.252,0.462 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.198,-0.366,-0.07 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.25,0.676,-0.034,-0.084,0.008 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.142,-0.303,-0.022 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.576,-0.01,-0.179,0.124 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.01,-0.044,0.025 +Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.028,-0.015,0.075 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.374,0.776,0.056,-0.004,0.121 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.049,-0.116,0.185 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.08,-0.096,0.225 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.043,-0.093,0.156 +Toto-1.0,LightGBM,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.104,-0.057,0.269 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.066,-0.145,0.213 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.123,0.04,0.233 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.167,0.064,0.299 +Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.358,0.246,0.461 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.232,-0.406,-0.098 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.6,-0.063,-0.146,0.004 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.028,-0.079,0.016 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.137,-0.325,0.021 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.174,-0.335,-0.052 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.425,0.2,0.625,-0.039,-0.22,0.11 Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.038,-0.111,0.006 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.029,-0.081,0.015 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.029,-0.025,0.087 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.021,-0.14,0.15 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.11,0.007,0.226 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.153,0.023,0.293 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.257,0.088,0.427 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.19,0.096,0.301 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.385,0.269,0.494 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.383,0.267,0.491 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.053,-0.104,0.195 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.55,0.3,0.8,0.016,-0.123,0.13 +Moirai-2.0,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.079,-0.082,0.243 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.039,-0.18,0.192 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.098,-0.005,0.216 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.143,0.013,0.29 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.34,0.237,0.445 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.269,-0.434,-0.134 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.225,0.05,0.425,-0.095,-0.179,-0.03 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.058,-0.136,0.005 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.171,-0.349,-0.026 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.209,-0.363,-0.085 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.325,0.15,0.526,-0.07,-0.23,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.069,-0.145,-0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.224,0.626,-0.059,-0.138,0.003 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.03,-0.095,0.024 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.008,-0.161,0.112 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.083,0.015,0.164 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.128,0.006,0.261 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.234,0.075,0.406 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.166,0.105,0.235 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.367,0.27,0.462 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.365,0.272,0.465 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.025,-0.139,0.151 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.5,0.299,0.75,-0.014,-0.155,0.095 +Chronos-Bolt,LightGBM,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.051,-0.104,0.194 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.65,0.4,0.85,0.011,-0.204,0.155 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.071,0.004,0.152 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.118,0.001,0.252 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.32,0.239,0.401 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.259,-0.417,-0.119 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.086,-0.248,0.069 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.05,-0.225,0.105 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.162,-0.33,-0.017 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.2,-0.4,-0.027 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.061,-0.205,0.086 Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.061,-0.249,0.101 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.051,-0.228,0.104 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.022,-0.177,0.122 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.008,-0.126,0.139 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.09,-0.072,0.252 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.135,-0.037,0.297 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.24,0.014,0.431 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.173,0.043,0.303 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.372,0.23,0.522 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.369,0.212,0.532 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.6,0.35,0.8,0.032,-0.066,0.122 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,-0.006,-0.177,0.135 +Sundial-Base,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.059,-0.155,0.239 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.018,-0.102,0.114 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.078,-0.09,0.239 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.125,-0.05,0.292 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.326,0.226,0.43 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.384,-0.606,-0.211 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.194,-0.339,-0.1 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.154,-0.316,-0.05 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.4,-0.277,-0.508,-0.097 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.166,-0.316,-0.073 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.123,-0.292,-0.007 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.091,-0.196,-0.015 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.099,-0.336,0.067 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.301,-0.54,-0.1 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.123,-0.321,0.059 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.24,-0.476,-0.042 +TFT,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.313,0.084 +TFT,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.097,-0.301,0.084 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.086,-0.29,0.087 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.056,-0.243,0.094 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.026,-0.177,0.122 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.034,-0.139,0.062 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.04,-0.249,0.121 +TFT,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.027,-0.22,0.243 +TFT,PatchTST,0.55,0.349,0.75,-0.015,-0.196,0.105 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.047,-0.144,0.23 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.095,-0.108,0.294 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.725,1.0,0.303,0.198,0.408 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.252,-0.414,-0.116 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.08,-0.218,0.054 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.193,-0.326,-0.08 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.055,-0.269,0.112 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.055,-0.192,0.085 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.045,-0.184,0.085 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.2,0.7,-0.016,-0.15,0.109 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.25,0.701,0.013,-0.105,0.134 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,0.006,-0.156,0.15 +CatBoost,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.038,-0.138,0.199 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,LightGBM,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.064,-0.001,0.161 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.024,-0.22,0.205 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.084,-0.034,0.199 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.801,0.13,0.005,0.249 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.33,0.225,0.429 +LightGBM,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.337,-0.607,-0.142 +LightGBM,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.154,-0.381,0.02 +LightGBM,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.275,-0.525,-0.114 +LightGBM,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.128,-0.369,0.057 +LightGBM,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.127,-0.362,0.038 +LightGBM,Toto-1.0,0.4,0.2,0.65,-0.117,-0.368,0.054 +LightGBM,Moirai-2.0,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.086,-0.322,0.076 +LightGBM,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.054,-0.241,0.094 +LightGBM,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.062,-0.314,0.134 +LightGBM,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.028,-0.321,0.18 +LightGBM,CatBoost,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.069,-0.192,0.001 +LightGBM,LightGBM,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +LightGBM,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.043,-0.353,0.183 +LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.2,0.65,0.021,-0.106,0.138 +LightGBM,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.07,-0.074,0.191 +LightGBM,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.284,0.163,0.397 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.282,-0.5,-0.103 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.106,-0.292,0.08 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.222,-0.497,0.016 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.081,-0.215,0.051 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.081,-0.298,0.131 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.071,-0.271,0.127 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.041,-0.237,0.153 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.35,0.15,0.6,-0.011,-0.183,0.169 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.019,-0.129,0.093 +PatchTST,TFT,0.45,0.25,0.651,0.015,-0.117,0.164 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.025,-0.258,0.18 +PatchTST,LightGBM,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.041,-0.224,0.261 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.061,-0.132,0.246 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.751,0.108,-0.101,0.32 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.313,0.173,0.45 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.366,-0.594,-0.195 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.179,-0.32,-0.086 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.302,-0.518,-0.151 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.152,-0.326,-0.03 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.151,-0.295,-0.058 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.141,-0.304,-0.042 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.109,-0.275,0.005 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.077,-0.179,-0.004 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.085,-0.314,0.083 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.05,-0.299,0.126 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.091,-0.249,0.033 +Stat. Ensemble,LightGBM,0.55,0.35,0.8,-0.021,-0.161,0.096 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.065,-0.327,0.117 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.049,-0.048,0.165 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.165,0.022,0.341 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.091,0.006,0.177 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.309,0.183,0.42 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.307,0.199,0.408 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.775,1.0,0.259,0.152,0.355 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.455,-0.767,-0.239 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.256,-0.466,-0.121 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.214,-0.425,-0.081 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.343,-0.653,-0.129 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.227,-0.436,-0.099 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.181,-0.414,-0.024 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.147,-0.354,-0.006 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.156,-0.422,0.035 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.052,-0.198,0.045 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.625,0.424,0.825,0.05,-0.047,0.166 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.925,0.8,1.0,0.268,0.17,0.36 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.438,-0.76,-0.223 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.241,-0.448,-0.111 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.371,-0.643,-0.191 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.212,-0.501,-0.028 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.212,-0.422,-0.082 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.201,-0.426,-0.068 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.167,-0.409,-0.013 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.134,-0.337,-0.001 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.142,-0.412,0.048 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.105,-0.416,0.097 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.4,0.199,0.6,-0.149,-0.331,-0.005 +AutoARIMA,LightGBM,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.075,-0.237,0.069 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.45,0.249,0.65,-0.121,-0.471,0.092 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.375,0.175,0.576,-0.053,-0.199,0.045 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.122,-0.095,0.307 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.044,-0.151,0.191 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.274,0.07,0.418 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.271,0.094,0.405 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.22,0.099,0.335 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.657,-1.155,-0.318 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.43,-0.826,-0.188 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.382,-0.8,-0.138 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.529,-1.008,-0.186 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.397,-0.815,-0.147 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.345,-0.746,-0.096 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.306,-0.685,-0.082 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.316,-0.757,-0.014 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.198,-0.518,-0.022 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.139,-0.443,0.087 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.55,0.3,0.75,-0.089,-0.429,0.126 -AutoETS,Naive,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.173,-0.101,0.36 -AutoETS,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.17,-0.077,0.35 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.85,0.112,-0.185,0.312 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.522,-0.799,-0.292 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.313,-0.52,-0.165 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.269,-0.476,-0.123 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.404,-0.646,-0.199 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.283,-0.482,-0.14 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.235,-0.432,-0.106 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.199,-0.307,-0.117 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.209,-0.434,-0.045 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.1,-0.215,-0.006 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.046,-0.236,0.131 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.7,0.082,-0.144,0.3 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.241,0.134,0.346 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.238,0.135,0.347 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.185,0.112,0.262 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.004,-1.516,-0.611 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.729,-1.085,-0.455 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.671,-1.026,-0.398 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.849,-1.389,-0.506 -Naive,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.689,-1.057,-0.394 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.626,-0.975,-0.368 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.58,-0.86,-0.37 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.592,-1.092,-0.299 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.448,-0.725,-0.225 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.377,-0.719,-0.076 -Naive,AutoETS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.209,-0.562,0.092 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.317,-0.528,-0.155 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.8,0.65,0.95,-0.004,-0.072,0.057 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.073,-0.301,0.102 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.996,-1.554,-0.606 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.723,-1.054,-0.468 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.665,-1.002,-0.419 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.843,-1.376,-0.501 -Drift,TiRex,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.683,-1.026,-0.423 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.62,-0.963,-0.364 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.574,-0.869,-0.374 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.586,-1.136,-0.27 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.443,-0.69,-0.249 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.372,-0.681,-0.104 -Drift,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.205,-0.539,0.071 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.312,-0.532,-0.156 -Drift,Naive,0.2,0.05,0.35,0.004,-0.06,0.067 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.069,-0.295,0.105 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.725,1.0,0.23,0.11,0.34 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.867,-1.248,-0.559 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.611,-0.907,-0.377 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.557,-0.855,-0.325 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.723,-1.025,-0.481 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.779,-1.091,-0.512 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.574,-0.911,-0.344 Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.573,-0.859,-0.336 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.559,-0.857,-0.326 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.515,-0.802,-0.311 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.472,-0.669,-0.315 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.483,-0.755,-0.292 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.1,0.0,0.225,-0.349,-0.551,-0.18 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.283,-0.504,-0.11 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.3,0.15,0.5,-0.127,-0.454,0.156 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.227,-0.354,-0.126 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.068,-0.113,0.231 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.065,-0.118,0.228 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.125,0.0,0.275,-0.435,-0.69,-0.246 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.492,-0.753,-0.29 +Seasonal Naive,LightGBM,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.396,-0.659,-0.195 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.456,-0.817,-0.21 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.075,0.0,0.2,-0.367,-0.563,-0.205 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.125,0.0,0.275,-0.298,-0.516,-0.124 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv index e50dfe3244abbee87a6b7d6f4cc8cf5036bde361..4c956215be495e54aa00b93de49eb17757d8d2a2 100644 --- a/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/mini/pairwise_WQL.csv @@ -1,226 +1,257 @@ model_1,model_2,win_rate,win_rate_lower,win_rate_upper,skill_score,skill_score_lower,skill_score_upper Chronos-2,Chronos-2,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.056,0.281 Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.144,0.056,0.239 -Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.169,0.068,0.279 -Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.08,-0.003,0.162 +Chronos-2,TiRex,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.16,0.056,0.281 +Chronos-2,TabPFN-TS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.059,-0.015,0.144 +Chronos-2,Toto-1.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.168,0.069,0.278 +Chronos-2,FlowState,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.163,0.069,0.257 Chronos-2,Moirai-2.0,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.201,0.1,0.304 Chronos-2,Chronos-Bolt,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.22,0.125,0.322 +Chronos-2,TFT,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.272,0.121,0.397 +Chronos-2,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.245,0.113,0.36 +Chronos-2,DeepAR,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.335,0.175,0.467 Chronos-2,Sundial-Base,0.95,0.8,1.0,0.268,0.181,0.348 -Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.355,0.239,0.479 -Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.39,0.277,0.503 -Chronos-2,AutoETS,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.563,0.384,0.732 -Chronos-2,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.528,0.423,0.621 +Chronos-2,AutoARIMA,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.346,0.227,0.473 +Chronos-2,Stat. Ensemble,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.383,0.269,0.501 +Chronos-2,CatBoost,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.359,0.281,0.433 Chronos-2,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.572,0.466,0.653 -Chronos-2,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.68,0.599,0.752 -Chronos-2,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.676,0.591,0.751 -TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.19,-0.391,-0.06 -TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.087,0.027 -TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.011,-0.027,0.047 -TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.094,-0.278,0.056 -TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.006,0.11 -TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.072,0.015,0.129 -TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,-0.034,0.265 -TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.232,0.148,0.339 -TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.273,0.162,0.4 -TiRex,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.482,0.276,0.68 -TiRex,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.438,0.319,0.55 -TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.374,0.588 -TiRex,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.619,0.524,0.699 -TiRex,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.521,0.691 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.169,-0.315,-0.06 -TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.028,0.08 TimesFM-2.5,TimesFM-2.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.7,0.028,-0.02,0.08 -TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.075,-0.25,0.059 +TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.018,-0.028,0.08 +TimesFM-2.5,TabPFN-TS,0.65,0.4,0.85,-0.1,-0.253,0.016 +TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,0.525,0.324,0.75,0.028,-0.02,0.079 +TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,0.625,0.425,0.825,0.021,-0.112,0.119 TimesFM-2.5,Moirai-2.0,0.675,0.475,0.85,0.066,-0.001,0.134 TimesFM-2.5,Chronos-Bolt,0.825,0.65,0.975,0.088,0.032,0.151 +TimesFM-2.5,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.15,-0.026,0.277 +TimesFM-2.5,PatchTST,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.117,-0.08,0.251 +TimesFM-2.5,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.223,0.036,0.36 TimesFM-2.5,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.145,0.003,0.26 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.246,0.148,0.36 -TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.286,0.17,0.408 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.492,0.284,0.687 -TimesFM-2.5,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.449,0.323,0.554 +TimesFM-2.5,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.236,0.134,0.354 +TimesFM-2.5,Stat. Ensemble,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.279,0.163,0.401 +TimesFM-2.5,CatBoost,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.25,0.14,0.335 TimesFM-2.5,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.5,0.386,0.596 -TimesFM-2.5,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.626,0.541,0.697 -TimesFM-2.5,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.622,0.534,0.693 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.203,-0.388,-0.073 -Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.011,-0.049,0.026 -Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.525,0.3,0.725,-0.029,-0.087,0.02 +TiRex,Chronos-2,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.19,-0.391,-0.06 +TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.018,-0.087,0.027 +TiRex,TiRex,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TiRex,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.12,-0.274,-0.002 +TiRex,Toto-1.0,0.55,0.349,0.75,0.01,-0.027,0.045 +TiRex,FlowState,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.003,-0.203,0.131 +TiRex,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.049,0.006,0.11 +TiRex,Chronos-Bolt,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.072,0.015,0.129 +TiRex,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.134,-0.053,0.277 +TiRex,PatchTST,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.101,-0.147,0.257 +TiRex,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.209,0.025,0.35 +TiRex,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.129,-0.034,0.265 +TiRex,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.222,0.133,0.331 +TiRex,Stat. Ensemble,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.266,0.154,0.391 +TiRex,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.237,0.119,0.329 +TiRex,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.491,0.374,0.588 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.062,-0.168,0.015 +TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.35,0.15,0.6,0.091,-0.017,0.202 +TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.107,0.002,0.215 +TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.3,0.75,0.116,0.012,0.228 +TabPFN-TS,FlowState,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.11,-0.061,0.242 +TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.151,0.048,0.252 +TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.171,0.073,0.264 +TabPFN-TS,TFT,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.227,0.058,0.37 +TabPFN-TS,PatchTST,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.197,0.003,0.354 +TabPFN-TS,DeepAR,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.294,0.133,0.434 +TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.222,0.091,0.335 +TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.305,0.194,0.422 +TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.345,0.236,0.469 +TabPFN-TS,CatBoost,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.319,0.238,0.39 +TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.546,0.433,0.636 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-2,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.202,-0.386,-0.074 +Toto-1.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.475,0.25,0.676,-0.029,-0.085,0.02 +Toto-1.0,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.651,-0.01,-0.047,0.027 +Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.25,0.7,-0.132,-0.295,-0.012 Toto-1.0,Toto-1.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.106,-0.302,0.056 -Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.625,0.4,0.801,0.038,-0.011,0.085 -Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.062,-0.004,0.131 -Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.12,-0.043,0.257 -Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.224,0.121,0.342 -Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.266,0.138,0.404 -Toto-1.0,AutoETS,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.477,0.258,0.683 -Toto-1.0,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.432,0.308,0.552 +Toto-1.0,FlowState,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.007,-0.188,0.13 +Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,0.575,0.375,0.775,0.039,-0.011,0.087 +Toto-1.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.525,0.325,0.725,0.062,-0.005,0.131 +Toto-1.0,TFT,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.125,-0.061,0.273 +Toto-1.0,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.092,-0.135,0.246 +Toto-1.0,DeepAR,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.201,0.023,0.346 +Toto-1.0,Sundial-Base,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.12,-0.042,0.257 +Toto-1.0,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.214,0.11,0.335 +Toto-1.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.259,0.133,0.399 +Toto-1.0,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.229,0.107,0.326 Toto-1.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.486,0.363,0.591 -Toto-1.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.615,0.52,0.694 -Toto-1.0,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.611,0.516,0.689 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-2,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.088,-0.193,0.003 -TabPFN-TS,TiRex,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.086,-0.059,0.218 -TabPFN-TS,TimesFM-2.5,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.07,-0.063,0.2 -TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.096,-0.059,0.232 -TabPFN-TS,TabPFN-TS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.131,-0.008,0.256 -TabPFN-TS,Chronos-Bolt,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.152,0.033,0.266 -TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.204,0.086,0.312 -TabPFN-TS,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.298,0.163,0.427 -TabPFN-TS,Stat. Ensemble,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.336,0.202,0.467 -TabPFN-TS,AutoETS,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.528,0.318,0.71 -TabPFN-TS,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.487,0.381,0.591 -TabPFN-TS,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.535,0.427,0.629 -TabPFN-TS,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.652,0.568,0.736 -TabPFN-TS,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.648,0.554,0.736 +FlowState,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.194,-0.345,-0.074 +FlowState,TimesFM-2.5,0.375,0.175,0.575,-0.022,-0.136,0.101 +FlowState,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.003,-0.15,0.169 +FlowState,TabPFN-TS,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.124,-0.319,0.057 +FlowState,Toto-1.0,0.575,0.35,0.775,0.007,-0.149,0.158 +FlowState,FlowState,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +FlowState,Moirai-2.0,0.525,0.325,0.75,0.045,-0.115,0.2 +FlowState,Chronos-Bolt,0.625,0.424,0.825,0.069,-0.035,0.207 +FlowState,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.131,-0.068,0.282 +FlowState,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.098,-0.048,0.209 +FlowState,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.206,-0.002,0.374 +FlowState,Sundial-Base,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.126,-0.011,0.236 +FlowState,AutoARIMA,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.219,0.065,0.381 +FlowState,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.264,0.117,0.417 +FlowState,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.234,0.088,0.363 +FlowState,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.489,0.374,0.596 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.251,-0.437,-0.111 -Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.124,-0.006 Moirai-2.0,TimesFM-2.5,0.325,0.15,0.525,-0.07,-0.155,0.001 -Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.375,0.199,0.6,-0.04,-0.093,0.011 -Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.15,-0.343,0.008 +Moirai-2.0,TiRex,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.051,-0.124,-0.006 +Moirai-2.0,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.177,-0.336,-0.05 +Moirai-2.0,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.625,-0.04,-0.095,0.011 +Moirai-2.0,FlowState,0.475,0.25,0.675,-0.047,-0.249,0.103 Moirai-2.0,Moirai-2.0,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,0.55,0.375,0.725,0.025,-0.037,0.088 +Moirai-2.0,TFT,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.09,-0.083,0.235 +Moirai-2.0,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.055,-0.185,0.214 +Moirai-2.0,DeepAR,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.168,-0.019,0.319 Moirai-2.0,Sundial-Base,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.084,-0.068,0.209 -Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.193,0.069,0.319 -Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.236,0.104,0.374 -Moirai-2.0,AutoETS,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.458,0.223,0.665 -Moirai-2.0,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.41,0.288,0.527 +Moirai-2.0,AutoARIMA,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.182,0.058,0.314 +Moirai-2.0,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.229,0.095,0.372 +Moirai-2.0,CatBoost,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.198,0.087,0.29 Moirai-2.0,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.465,0.355,0.565 -Moirai-2.0,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.6,0.501,0.677 -Moirai-2.0,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.595,0.489,0.678 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.282,-0.474,-0.143 -Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.077,-0.148,-0.016 Chronos-Bolt,TimesFM-2.5,0.175,0.025,0.35,-0.097,-0.178,-0.033 -Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.425,0.225,0.65,-0.066,-0.151,0.004 -Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.179,-0.362,-0.034 +Chronos-Bolt,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.077,-0.148,-0.016 +Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.207,-0.36,-0.079 +Chronos-Bolt,Toto-1.0,0.475,0.275,0.675,-0.067,-0.151,0.005 +Chronos-Bolt,FlowState,0.375,0.175,0.576,-0.074,-0.261,0.033 Chronos-Bolt,Moirai-2.0,0.45,0.275,0.625,-0.025,-0.096,0.036 Chronos-Bolt,Chronos-Bolt,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +Chronos-Bolt,TFT,0.55,0.3,0.75,0.067,-0.116,0.206 +Chronos-Bolt,PatchTST,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.031,-0.216,0.196 +Chronos-Bolt,DeepAR,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.148,-0.041,0.286 Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.061,-0.094,0.187 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.172,0.067,0.289 -Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.217,0.103,0.342 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoETS,0.8,0.649,0.95,0.444,0.218,0.665 -Chronos-Bolt,AutoTheta,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.395,0.28,0.512 +Chronos-Bolt,AutoARIMA,0.75,0.55,0.901,0.162,0.057,0.282 +Chronos-Bolt,Stat. Ensemble,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.209,0.096,0.335 +Chronos-Bolt,CatBoost,0.85,0.65,1.0,0.178,0.066,0.264 Chronos-Bolt,Seasonal Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.452,0.356,0.542 -Chronos-Bolt,Naive,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.59,0.501,0.668 -Chronos-Bolt,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.585,0.495,0.666 +TFT,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.374,-0.657,-0.138 +TFT,TimesFM-2.5,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.176,-0.383,0.025 +TFT,TiRex,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.155,-0.384,0.05 +TFT,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.294,-0.588,-0.062 +TFT,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.143,-0.376,0.057 +TFT,FlowState,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.151,-0.392,0.064 +TFT,Moirai-2.0,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.099,-0.307,0.076 +TFT,Chronos-Bolt,0.45,0.25,0.7,-0.072,-0.259,0.104 +TFT,TFT,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +TFT,PatchTST,0.5,0.3,0.7,-0.038,-0.235,0.097 +TFT,DeepAR,0.575,0.374,0.775,0.086,0.023,0.153 +TFT,Sundial-Base,0.65,0.45,0.85,-0.006,-0.136,0.107 +TFT,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.101,-0.109,0.301 +TFT,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.153,-0.058,0.352 +TFT,CatBoost,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.119,-0.091,0.275 +TFT,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.412,0.297,0.53 +PatchTST,Chronos-2,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.324,-0.561,-0.127 +PatchTST,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.133,-0.335,0.074 +PatchTST,TiRex,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.112,-0.345,0.128 +PatchTST,TabPFN-TS,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.246,-0.548,-0.003 +PatchTST,Toto-1.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.101,-0.327,0.119 +PatchTST,FlowState,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.108,-0.264,0.046 +PatchTST,Moirai-2.0,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.058,-0.273,0.156 +PatchTST,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.032,-0.243,0.178 +PatchTST,TFT,0.5,0.3,0.7,0.037,-0.107,0.19 +PatchTST,PatchTST,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +PatchTST,DeepAR,0.7,0.45,0.9,0.12,-0.027,0.299 +PatchTST,Sundial-Base,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.031,-0.092,0.15 +PatchTST,AutoARIMA,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.134,-0.098,0.366 +PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.184,-0.039,0.4 +PatchTST,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.151,-0.07,0.336 +PatchTST,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.434,0.282,0.567 +DeepAR,Chronos-2,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.504,-0.878,-0.212 +DeepAR,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.287,-0.561,-0.038 +DeepAR,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.264,-0.538,-0.026 +DeepAR,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.416,-0.766,-0.153 +DeepAR,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.251,-0.529,-0.023 +DeepAR,FlowState,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.26,-0.598,0.002 +DeepAR,Moirai-2.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.203,-0.468,0.018 +DeepAR,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.173,-0.4,0.039 +DeepAR,TFT,0.425,0.225,0.626,-0.095,-0.181,-0.023 +DeepAR,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.55,-0.136,-0.426,0.026 +DeepAR,DeepAR,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +DeepAR,Sundial-Base,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.101,-0.294,0.056 +DeepAR,AutoARIMA,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.016,-0.234,0.253 +DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.072,-0.187,0.311 +DeepAR,CatBoost,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.035,-0.225,0.231 +DeepAR,Seasonal Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.357,0.217,0.497 Sundial-Base,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.2,-0.366,-0.534,-0.221 -Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.361,0.033 Sundial-Base,TimesFM-2.5,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.169,-0.351,-0.003 -Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.136,-0.346,0.041 -Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.256,-0.453,-0.094 +Sundial-Base,TiRex,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.148,-0.361,0.033 +Sundial-Base,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.286,-0.504,-0.101 +Sundial-Base,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.136,-0.346,0.04 +Sundial-Base,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.144,-0.309,0.011 Sundial-Base,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.092,-0.264,0.064 Sundial-Base,Chronos-Bolt,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.066,-0.229,0.086 +Sundial-Base,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,0.006,-0.12,0.12 +Sundial-Base,PatchTST,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.032,-0.177,0.085 +Sundial-Base,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.092,-0.06,0.227 Sundial-Base,Sundial-Base,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.118,-0.062,0.29 -Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.166,-0.005,0.329 -Sundial-Base,AutoETS,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.41,0.131,0.645 -Sundial-Base,AutoTheta,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.355,0.224,0.471 +Sundial-Base,AutoARIMA,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.107,-0.076,0.283 +Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,0.6,0.4,0.8,0.157,-0.014,0.323 +Sundial-Base,CatBoost,0.65,0.45,0.85,0.124,-0.034,0.253 Sundial-Base,Seasonal Naive,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.416,0.303,0.513 -Sundial-Base,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.563,0.462,0.66 -Sundial-Base,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.558,0.442,0.666 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.55,-0.918,-0.314 -AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.302,-0.512,-0.173 -AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.326,-0.562,-0.174 -AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.288,-0.52,-0.138 -AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.425,-0.746,-0.194 -AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.239,-0.468,-0.075 -AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.208,-0.407,-0.071 -AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.134,-0.409,0.058 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-2,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.53,-0.897,-0.293 +AutoARIMA,TimesFM-2.5,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.309,-0.547,-0.155 +AutoARIMA,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.285,-0.495,-0.153 +AutoARIMA,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.44,-0.731,-0.241 +AutoARIMA,Toto-1.0,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.272,-0.503,-0.123 +AutoARIMA,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.281,-0.616,-0.069 +AutoARIMA,Moirai-2.0,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.223,-0.457,-0.062 +AutoARIMA,Chronos-Bolt,0.25,0.099,0.45,-0.193,-0.393,-0.061 +AutoARIMA,TFT,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.113,-0.432,0.099 +AutoARIMA,PatchTST,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.155,-0.576,0.09 +AutoARIMA,DeepAR,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.017,-0.338,0.19 +AutoARIMA,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.119,-0.394,0.07 AutoARIMA,AutoARIMA,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.325,0.775,0.054,-0.008,0.118 -AutoARIMA,AutoETS,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.336,0.112,0.584 -AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.269,0.156,0.362 -AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.95,0.875,1.0,0.337,0.206,0.439 -AutoARIMA,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.505,0.387,0.593 -AutoARIMA,Drift,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.498,0.394,0.581 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.638,-1.011,-0.383 -Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.376,-0.668,-0.194 -Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.401,-0.688,-0.205 -Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.362,-0.677,-0.159 -Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.506,-0.876,-0.254 -Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.309,-0.598,-0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.277,-0.519,-0.115 -Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.199,-0.491,0.005 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.225,0.675,-0.057,-0.133,0.008 +AutoARIMA,Stat. Ensemble,0.575,0.35,0.8,0.057,-0.006,0.12 +AutoARIMA,CatBoost,0.55,0.35,0.75,0.019,-0.146,0.152 +AutoARIMA,Seasonal Naive,0.975,0.925,1.0,0.346,0.226,0.442 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-2,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.622,-1.002,-0.368 +Stat. Ensemble,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.387,-0.67,-0.194 +Stat. Ensemble,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.363,-0.643,-0.182 +Stat. Ensemble,TabPFN-TS,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.526,-0.883,-0.309 +Stat. Ensemble,Toto-1.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.349,-0.665,-0.153 +Stat. Ensemble,FlowState,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.358,-0.715,-0.132 +Stat. Ensemble,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.296,-0.592,-0.104 +Stat. Ensemble,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.265,-0.505,-0.106 +Stat. Ensemble,TFT,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.18,-0.542,0.055 +Stat. Ensemble,PatchTST,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.225,-0.668,0.037 +Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.078,-0.451,0.157 +Stat. Ensemble,Sundial-Base,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.187,-0.477,0.014 +Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,0.425,0.2,0.65,-0.06,-0.137,0.006 Stat. Ensemble,Stat. Ensemble,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoETS,0.8,0.65,0.95,0.309,0.093,0.565 -Stat. Ensemble,AutoTheta,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.227,0.137,0.316 -Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.85,0.7,0.975,0.3,0.19,0.395 -Stat. Ensemble,Naive,0.95,0.85,1.0,0.476,0.373,0.567 -Stat. Ensemble,Drift,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.47,0.374,0.556 -AutoETS,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.289,-2.732,-0.624 -AutoETS,TiRex,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.932,-2.129,-0.381 -AutoETS,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.968,-2.195,-0.396 -AutoETS,Toto-1.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.911,-2.157,-0.347 -AutoETS,TabPFN-TS,0.15,0.0,0.3,-1.121,-2.449,-0.466 -AutoETS,Moirai-2.0,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.844,-1.986,-0.288 -AutoETS,Chronos-Bolt,0.2,0.05,0.351,-0.797,-1.983,-0.279 -AutoETS,Sundial-Base,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.696,-1.814,-0.151 -AutoETS,AutoARIMA,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.507,-1.405,-0.126 -AutoETS,Stat. Ensemble,0.2,0.05,0.35,-0.447,-1.3,-0.103 -AutoETS,AutoETS,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoETS,AutoTheta,0.55,0.35,0.75,-0.132,-0.873,0.197 -AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,0.6,0.399,0.8,-0.007,-0.774,0.314 -AutoETS,Naive,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.225,-0.349,0.489 -AutoETS,Drift,0.9,0.75,1.0,0.213,-0.358,0.477 -AutoTheta,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.12,-1.64,-0.733 -AutoTheta,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.781,-1.224,-0.469 -AutoTheta,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.813,-1.244,-0.477 -AutoTheta,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.762,-1.232,-0.445 -AutoTheta,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.949,-1.445,-0.615 -AutoTheta,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.694,-1.113,-0.405 -AutoTheta,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.653,-1.05,-0.388 -AutoTheta,Sundial-Base,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.551,-0.891,-0.288 -AutoTheta,AutoARIMA,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.368,-0.568,-0.185 -AutoTheta,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.294,-0.462,-0.159 -AutoTheta,AutoETS,0.45,0.25,0.65,0.116,-0.246,0.466 -AutoTheta,AutoTheta,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,0.7,0.5,0.9,0.094,-0.072,0.217 -AutoTheta,Naive,0.85,0.7,1.0,0.322,0.188,0.435 -AutoTheta,Drift,0.75,0.55,0.9,0.314,0.173,0.433 +Stat. Ensemble,CatBoost,0.45,0.2,0.65,-0.04,-0.226,0.091 +Stat. Ensemble,Seasonal Naive,0.875,0.725,1.0,0.306,0.199,0.4 +CatBoost,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.559,-0.764,-0.39 +CatBoost,TimesFM-2.5,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.334,-0.503,-0.163 +CatBoost,TiRex,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.31,-0.491,-0.135 +CatBoost,TabPFN-TS,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.468,-0.64,-0.312 +CatBoost,Toto-1.0,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.297,-0.484,-0.12 +CatBoost,FlowState,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.306,-0.57,-0.096 +CatBoost,Moirai-2.0,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.247,-0.408,-0.096 +CatBoost,Chronos-Bolt,0.15,0.0,0.35,-0.216,-0.358,-0.071 +CatBoost,TFT,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.135,-0.38,0.083 +CatBoost,PatchTST,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.178,-0.507,0.065 +CatBoost,DeepAR,0.4,0.2,0.6,-0.036,-0.3,0.183 +CatBoost,Sundial-Base,0.35,0.15,0.55,-0.141,-0.338,0.033 +CatBoost,AutoARIMA,0.45,0.25,0.65,-0.019,-0.179,0.127 +CatBoost,Stat. Ensemble,0.55,0.35,0.8,0.039,-0.101,0.184 +CatBoost,CatBoost,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 +CatBoost,Seasonal Naive,0.75,0.55,0.95,0.333,0.205,0.452 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.338,-1.884,-0.874 -Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.426,-0.596 Seasonal Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.001,-1.473,-0.629 -Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.944,-1.447,-0.57 -Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.15,-1.695,-0.745 +Seasonal Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.965,-1.426,-0.596 +Seasonal Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.201,-1.748,-0.763 +Seasonal Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.945,-1.446,-0.57 +Seasonal Naive,FlowState,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.958,-1.477,-0.598 Seasonal Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.869,-1.298,-0.551 Seasonal Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.824,-1.184,-0.553 +Seasonal Naive,TFT,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.701,-1.13,-0.422 +Seasonal Naive,PatchTST,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.766,-1.308,-0.393 +Seasonal Naive,DeepAR,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.554,-0.987,-0.277 Seasonal Naive,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.711,-1.051,-0.434 -Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.125,-0.509,-0.784,-0.26 -Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.15,0.025,0.3,-0.428,-0.653,-0.235 -Seasonal Naive,AutoETS,0.4,0.2,0.601,0.007,-0.459,0.436 -Seasonal Naive,AutoTheta,0.3,0.1,0.5,-0.103,-0.277,0.067 +Seasonal Naive,AutoARIMA,0.025,0.0,0.075,-0.529,-0.794,-0.293 +Seasonal Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.125,0.0,0.275,-0.442,-0.666,-0.249 +Seasonal Naive,CatBoost,0.25,0.05,0.45,-0.5,-0.824,-0.258 Seasonal Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Seasonal Naive,Naive,0.75,0.6,0.9,0.252,0.104,0.375 -Seasonal Naive,Drift,0.8,0.6,0.95,0.243,0.079,0.379 -Naive,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.128,-3.026,-1.495 -Naive,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.628,-2.324,-1.101 -Naive,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.676,-2.301,-1.181 -Naive,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.6,-2.263,-1.082 -Naive,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.876,-2.787,-1.317 -Naive,Moirai-2.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.5,-2.099,-1.004 -Naive,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.439,-2.013,-1.005 -Naive,Sundial-Base,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.289,-1.944,-0.858 -Naive,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.018,-1.454,-0.631 -Naive,Stat. Ensemble,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.909,-1.312,-0.594 -Naive,AutoETS,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.29,-0.958,0.259 -Naive,AutoTheta,0.15,0.0,0.3,-0.476,-0.769,-0.232 -Naive,Seasonal Naive,0.25,0.1,0.4,-0.338,-0.599,-0.116 -Naive,Naive,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 -Naive,Drift,0.85,0.7,1.0,-0.013,-0.074,0.037 -Drift,Chronos-2,0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.089,-3.018,-1.445 -Drift,TiRex,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.595,-2.236,-1.088 -Drift,TimesFM-2.5,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.643,-2.256,-1.147 -Drift,Toto-1.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.568,-2.216,-1.066 -Drift,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.84,-2.79,-1.244 -Drift,Moirai-2.0,0.05,0.0,0.15,-1.469,-2.108,-0.956 -Drift,Chronos-Bolt,0.0,0.0,0.0,-1.409,-1.99,-0.979 -Drift,Sundial-Base,0.1,0.0,0.25,-1.261,-1.99,-0.791 -Drift,AutoARIMA,0.05,0.0,0.15,-0.993,-1.387,-0.651 -Drift,Stat. Ensemble,0.0,0.0,0.0,-0.886,-1.253,-0.598 -Drift,AutoETS,0.1,0.0,0.25,-0.271,-0.912,0.264 -Drift,AutoTheta,0.25,0.1,0.45,-0.457,-0.763,-0.209 -Drift,Seasonal Naive,0.2,0.05,0.4,-0.321,-0.61,-0.086 -Drift,Naive,0.15,0.0,0.3,0.012,-0.039,0.069 -Drift,Drift,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.0,0.0,0.0 diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE.csv index 1101856c80599009023d9b1a4c4982578181e2db..0d251447c011a18fce9915153a646c93056a11d2 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.6948579833,0.7187969186000001,0.7295309932,0.7577736165000001,0.7033446670000001,0.7033446670000001,0.7625422865,0.7138930444,0.9168897854,0.9168897854,0.8021815222,1.4293457361000002,0.9168897854,1.3670854222,1.4150881085 -ETT_1D,1.3413765406,1.3268087247,1.3611067371,1.3679488602,1.3461045465,1.3461045465,1.4991782178,1.4174248495,1.4122431037,1.4311893424,1.4485203425,1.437554375,1.4915469632,1.4615227122,1.493070532 -ETT_1H,1.1259593459,1.1177931379,1.1239074995,1.1128977698,1.126722477,1.126722477,1.1773747941,1.1439289261,1.2518551239,1.2616150196,1.284690664,1.6020946418,1.3227159047,1.7184142013,1.7823323561 -ETT_1W,2.6985268972,2.6203818352,2.6215325512,2.6388480518,2.6260535479,2.6260535479,2.8095121652,2.7153947044,2.6874358146,2.7471493707,2.8368188855,2.6393182441,2.6201185499,2.6201185499,2.7818783534 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.9599506578,0.9691232143,0.9509504834,1.0267654131,0.9859320366,0.9859320366,0.9622221749,0.9847669395,0.9983198527,0.9888675362,1.0222727765,1.0016712996,1.1753801207,2.1046903302,2.373789824 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7939256021000001,0.8196171978,0.7539313166,0.8716561378000001,0.9188719391,0.9188719391,0.8527195266,0.9012445092,1.3516779911,1.3516779911,1.1797622806,1.6371768899,1.3516779911,1.7163837446,1.9650972819 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.6812013944,0.6919744542,0.7344527308000001,0.6999688034,0.8058940043,0.8058940043,0.7953950095000001,0.7671902281,0.9579580055,0.9670797236,0.9937342132,0.9723147042,0.8255932621000001,1.0149350727,1.1722532487 -M_DENSE_1D,0.7721472947,0.9065688429,0.8575514804000001,1.0278691722,0.9249126529,0.9249126529,0.9194900606,0.8999893558000001,1.050932514,1.168959753,1.0771913138,1.0868806507,1.3500254954,1.72924802,1.7668414689 -M_DENSE_1H,0.7132003566,0.7118568012000001,0.6693472657,0.7547859889,0.7173406545000001,0.7173406545000001,0.7953014020000001,0.775167995,1.1917704339,1.1833753219,1.4265921364,1.4834949349,1.2398526574,2.9336598204,3.2462087048 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.4999875762,0.5028743392,0.5037458638,0.5100538324,0.5100343925,0.5100343925,0.5231892934,0.5133618160000001,0.6992652752,0.6992652752,0.5704736672,0.6812952229,0.6992652752,0.7537395688,0.7757872137 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4878765611,0.4985809825,0.5174781061,0.4938355877,0.5054399823,0.5054399823,0.5369530543000001,0.6129421994,0.5582147152,0.6365009349,0.7816119684,1.6334537315,0.6288121204,0.7531606604000001,0.8861734094 -australian_tourism,0.8548582992,0.9757973332,0.9190089649,1.1349816052,1.1608053998,1.167418807,0.8868052992000001,0.9146409764,0.9323052664,1.0124394981,1.0449349521,0.9667110204,1.0994521146,1.5829350567,1.7960279922 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3841207818,0.4680641032,0.4101674728,0.4671656853,0.4308821616,0.4308821616,0.4458486692,0.4647078621,0.7567537453000001,0.7748607972,0.7957254005000001,0.8231641016,1.0658712657,0.7707155721000001,0.7758078113 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.5169197944,0.7958700059,0.5787129625,0.7135649119,0.8001548681,0.8001548681,0.6193328173,0.4807818165,0.8068916121,0.9163295742,0.8740253941,0.8137418066000001,1.0666676717,0.7577504543,0.9386117981 -boomlet_1062,0.6776940987,0.6804959751,0.6916399154,0.669096311,0.7155932877000001,0.7110111948000001,0.6864002083,0.7574670104,1.0019575039,0.9510023935,1.0704423896,1.0502749806,0.9949683457,1.307870931,1.422512019 -boomlet_1209,0.7987706683,0.8520639537,0.8179153246,0.7440166652,0.8596275988000001,0.8460080897000001,1.107972646,0.8887982072,1.0454166675,1.0378800323,1.1056064071,1.1827230135,1.1827230135,1.0545734336,1.2621289177 -boomlet_1225,0.2322508868,0.2338512692,0.2365234795,0.2291020931,0.2436207845,0.2540221924,0.2509252394,0.2531870103,0.2904167694,0.2751876371,0.3003114491,0.3006939878,0.3736491907,0.3736491907,0.38068424 -boomlet_1230,1.3704917157,1.3783150604,1.3669883226,1.2932815419,1.4190498379,1.347504774,1.6398564855000002,1.4532188179,1.5513275237,1.5864985932,1.5854205097,1.7204862029,1.8986209303,1.563197,1.7478394522 -boomlet_1282,0.5228616907,0.4966357089,0.4938256811,0.4982816626,0.5229602404,0.5646901456,0.506661869,0.5169242862,0.6397695821,0.5924898465,0.6909553164000001,0.6889630667000001,0.8299194032,0.8299194032,0.8508297266 -boomlet_1487,0.5106600397000001,0.5187314221,0.5025569448,0.4821270726,0.5276634634,0.5268262285,0.6139593947,0.5573472172,0.6620511075000001,0.6561515279,0.6861485358,0.6618622173,0.7188988334,0.7369858245,0.8583652247 -boomlet_1631,0.7130379666000001,0.7478094028000001,0.7223220370000001,0.7231858750000001,0.7328154067,0.7407561889000001,0.8463187427000001,0.7619771372,0.9935726652,0.9935726652,0.7886354003,0.7850787279,0.9935726652,0.8639891085,0.8923058214 -boomlet_1676,0.7074172167,0.7093011606,0.6981823962,0.6906502502,0.7128114239000001,0.7192465308,0.958687274,0.7138061614,0.952905272,0.952905272,0.7772233453,0.7609898935,0.952905272,0.8198719238000001,0.8566079879 -boomlet_1855,0.5381849547,0.5278191175,0.5502667915,0.5280890902,0.543045447,0.5502545471,0.6402148315,0.59756436,0.7137233958,0.7334421170000001,0.7479719187,0.7732640618000001,0.8339307546,0.680593968,0.6861913673000001 -boomlet_1975,0.1607432077,0.2344681763,0.2045403051,0.149489781,0.2722386223,0.2157351982,0.2447173505,0.2358591523,0.5885200818,0.6455594326,0.5697333157000001,0.6992926357,0.9041727794,0.6991117215,0.7004386998000001 -boomlet_2187,0.8118519659000001,0.8085306304000001,0.8936367348,0.881456274,0.9069913111,0.878419842,1.0030305987,0.9507442206,1.18136692,1.2812206603,1.2716040444,1.2537471952,1.3439772563,1.15749623,1.1700732484 -boomlet_285,0.3587658623,0.4007113979,0.4216519838,0.3609691019,0.470509393,0.5250469024000001,0.3931546055,0.5605665968,0.7526380608000001,0.7883015466000001,0.7305756426000001,0.8132574193000001,1.2487633378,1.2487633378,1.2792135195 -boomlet_619,0.4234249126,0.4418338294,0.4363557101,0.403240616,0.4306276617,0.5940973904,0.4305322873,0.435636804,1.0046773699,0.7170247042,1.0200015813,1.0937660371,1.1235570145,1.1235570145,1.1484320675 -boomlet_772,0.331309455,0.3435360993,0.3429964064,0.3279337304,0.3651670055,0.3956163828,0.3608040826,0.3920487456,0.5801758985000001,0.5361147759,0.6163309557000001,0.6702469495000001,0.6290173275000001,0.6290173275000001,0.6468050268000001 -boomlet_963,0.8390323132,0.8276719248000001,0.8600331800000001,0.8253396814,0.8725943582000001,0.8956312939000001,0.8758112548,0.849173272,1.1173343797,1.1099255146,1.1004605986,1.2932431478,1.1186074012,1.1186074012,1.1367798246 -ecdc_ili,2.7551221016,2.8841261459,2.6316220318,3.0233475859,2.9286752636,3.1427261211,2.8110944773,3.0367688213,4.3217227901,4.1963805493,4.2528905756,4.5974303581,4.1680850656,4.1680850656,4.3553339847 -entsoe_15T,0.5846139379,0.5986061889000001,0.5903166384,0.7502653602,0.5933312818,0.6061735307,0.6094490505,0.7577799507,0.9314587074,0.9314587074,0.7298063048,4.0070290526,0.9314587074,1.9045500461,2.0547959624 -entsoe_1H,0.5379602554,0.585380389,0.5848723966,0.5907812391,0.5924217639,0.556447549,0.5377189816,0.8117895189000001,1.1144887827,1.1176425426,1.1626008244,2.0475241128,1.1014887222,2.0553481854,2.1575810109 -entsoe_30T,0.54381558,0.6645923404,0.6957880272,0.6254143824,0.5973972755,0.6326216104,0.6350493808000001,0.7796412031000001,1.0577908951,1.2299298482,1.0040370692,3.2738378374,1.2161814769,2.0733355971,2.0462297626 -epf_be,0.6470253268,0.6743990368,0.6101898021000001,0.7065052879,0.6709379406,0.7272945434,0.6701844387,0.7222255864,0.9813953164,1.0947820348,1.0193650689,1.3929299519,1.0270532112,1.3609414277,1.3744478654 -epf_de,0.6042262072,1.2971032281,1.2798889483,1.3369704527,1.2281783328,1.2655265893,0.5674762585,1.3227461317,1.3821017935,1.6231053542,1.407198376,1.741711499,1.7085955085,1.7417240476,1.7695511326000002 -epf_fr,0.4500649094,0.5040405462,0.4906901724,0.5253012985000001,0.5034595344,0.5638378752000001,0.4181703173,0.5243569292,0.7410301647,0.988839379,0.8447495724,0.9665291295,0.8501188428,1.160344512,1.1771067225 -epf_np,0.8501928867,1.22255132,1.4402381231,1.3589475358,1.1997562864,1.2409440197,0.8709423510000001,1.0947012554,1.514694987,1.7096191588,1.514020593,2.3244018164,1.7613036184,2.3154975383,2.3147871788 -epf_pjm,0.4718977319,0.5057793683,0.5310653587,0.5821871052,0.5630774342,0.5357283349,0.5339815846,0.5214143203,0.5294817721,0.5572886801,0.6832480189,0.9847286701,0.581167898,0.9849340527,0.9983941216 -ercot_1D,1.1382701719,1.0650322509,1.068637649,1.1712118632,1.2043414824,1.150459162,1.2627737925,1.1023893836,1.5207401049,1.3979692163,1.5801931826,1.5952697559,1.5987746508,1.5840542166,1.5904988169 -ercot_1H,1.3575339606,1.3770443905,1.4902437934,1.4168899965,1.3940551857,1.3914155571,1.5551131815,1.4647042938,1.610467295,1.4621684481,1.5835893744,3.196839145,1.5757631018,3.1089998641,3.1208481544 -ercot_1M,0.9503422041,1.0121701532,0.9788665964,1.2709588716,1.2434972767,0.9921791164,1.2288572299,1.0612308441,0.9720301101,0.9971198091,1.2051001185,0.9527701547,1.112833491,4.4343715733,4.8730234607 -ercot_1W,1.2194616983,1.2277888798,1.1887344162,1.3470027368,1.3362468506,1.2261966297,1.6253611467,1.4770568791,2.6623042168,2.6323348127,2.66207578,2.6788985082,2.6319098716,2.6319098716,2.6294908648 -favorita_stores_1D,1.1401981382,1.1934094375,1.1675502677,1.2803612723,1.2046882591,1.2688834676,1.1942878338,1.2200293401,1.3400112075,1.4187797295,1.3758675565,1.3798606395,1.7590444116,1.8830413748,1.8964809396 -favorita_stores_1M,1.9751999633,2.2147063817,2.2337935781,2.2864924589,2.3235561779,2.4178143615,2.1757603336,2.4060388473,2.1181450497,2.207495882,2.1335008012,2.1221172271,2.2823009488,1.9974006051,2.0640825589 -favorita_stores_1W,2.2987283752,2.4234607638,2.2900534378,2.5080339706,2.5772702404,2.4748929287,2.5267645799,2.561243423,2.433980351,2.580066785,2.4768022229,2.5164520445000003,2.5171133578,2.5171133578,2.55263811 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.8493705653,1.3492617128,1.1514968036,1.1514968036,1.1514968036,1.1514968036,1.6727335501,1.324712294,1.2657781225,1.7409399844,1.2511063806,1.2765051213,1.820047183,1.8618151915,1.8593809033 -favorita_transactions_1M,1.2531106718,1.3596174423,1.331599249,1.6656037195,1.6105440091,1.6365070781000002,1.4261630874,1.6184833791000002,1.3044406101,1.4642003185,1.4898451778,1.3424992981,1.5197338218,1.4299319146,1.6051275429 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.498824744,1.7464561746,1.7479484715,1.9303724027,1.6846164482,1.7479484715,2.436781004,2.0992640534,1.6323769125,1.7908498043,1.7230820362,1.6826500128,1.5401800863,1.5401800863,1.6333667243 -fred_md_2025/cee,4.1602404727,3.9913296592,5.4995170613,5.4995170613,5.4995170613,5.4995170613,4.6737821611,5.6396642877000005,4.1492831073,6.3656916747,4.7268175598,4.1316582891,11.870151993,6.7148852073,4.6902098373 -fred_md_2025/macro,6.7212231389,6.2436277327,6.8925263969,6.8925263969,6.8925263969,6.8925263969,7.7467550529,6.9855690276,6.4760151224,7.2903875617,6.7085954414,6.5541834396,11.2729488966,7.1693509539,6.6706675334 -fred_qd_2025/cee,2.7861575553,2.5007210568,2.5230363656,2.1472810882,2.7932979017,2.9552801855,2.9044098381000003,4.1237296063,2.2117006108,2.3066503643000003,2.5784767122,2.4969928698,5.7264703884,4.3666041366,2.5885780238 -fred_qd_2025/macro,4.2345766276,4.2532915346,4.2312964035,4.0310227379,4.3026427477,4.4204306869,5.2932799619,5.0800217147,4.2291679217,4.4837099549,4.4089305862,4.4466602526,6.2532543175,4.9115310592,4.3735327936 -gvar,0.7105251308,0.7074487020000001,0.7192074299,0.7017595921,0.7279795748,0.7294646076,0.9010948704,0.8613958999,0.6831004748,0.7032889301,0.6996326439,0.7021303869000001,0.9186013653,0.7430842013000001,0.6965206846 -hermes,0.7761148416,0.8309937727000001,0.7871785508,1.2023433786,0.8853610442000001,0.8579267331,0.9123318673,0.959480348,1.8121264962,1.5317415273,1.8477529328,1.9852238872,1.9945193434,1.9945193434,2.0472163243 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.6889480283,0.6853563806,0.6882027162000001,0.6820968126,0.6860304896,0.6860304896,0.7080055758,0.7291028689,0.8130155521,0.7735716427,0.8693462262,0.8639978187,0.9949475154,1.0417563414,1.0525564501 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7539268543000001,0.756678049,0.7507699991,0.7789897858,0.7733116574000001,0.7733116574000001,0.7740136921,0.8055524179,0.9004451123,0.9125112599,0.9154643589,1.0341883947,1.1617080217,1.1617080217,1.1894416421 -hospital,0.8734575212000001,0.8749408193,0.8629412822,0.9208820395,0.8888399515000001,0.8888399515000001,0.8808779374,0.9575868855,0.8766229998,0.9191221959,0.9215507227,0.9080008209,1.0188066511,1.10504708,1.1736654928 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.7170504383,0.717979448,0.7193032164000001,0.7172821424,0.7187636137000001,0.7195191066000001,0.7244514742,0.7225061727000001,0.7213815906000001,0.7209334531,0.7428646667000001,0.7211231617,1.0268297216,0.9746856833,0.9816293494 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.7508052527,0.7609831368000001,0.7544838609000001,0.7781410151,0.7643243630000001,0.7622844235,0.7534416615,0.7598582682,0.7551866274,0.7540567649000001,0.7779256247,0.7540854723,1.0436412698,1.0436412698,1.0831848605 -jena_weather_10T,0.4309090154,0.4789954609,0.4373143782,0.4522280598,0.4805248693,0.4805248693,0.516391649,0.4900412345,0.7300235109000001,0.7300235109000001,0.4933654141,0.6119521222000001,0.7300235109000001,0.52703557,0.5533241331000001 -jena_weather_1D,1.4035573159,1.366539178,1.3763415621,1.411132821,1.3722903668,1.3722903668,1.4445769356,1.4276462192,1.5642224637000002,1.5277037002,1.6406694179,1.8504210406,1.8965701168,1.6994317303000002,1.7748810582 -jena_weather_1H,0.4373910122,0.437909858,0.4392356659,0.4476285627,0.4542878163,0.4542878163,0.5111184304,0.4459427668,0.4663908322,0.5091821891,0.4846005807,0.567832109,0.7399001552000001,0.5374935394,0.544552084 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5199208546,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.5903298173,0.6951920674000001,0.5903298173,0.8187009928000001,0.8187009928000001,0.8117980851000001,0.7837343985,0.8187009928000001,0.7815687018,0.8809057293 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.8993091785,0.8990205149,0.8934942013,0.8967645421,0.9125687218,0.9069594704,0.9150751748,0.9235145261,0.9701127541,0.9552154519,0.9764039863,0.9888169951,1.0844353298,1.0306171345,1.0552765612 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5419430891,0.5339588215000001,0.6348935773000001,0.5309168604,0.5156770351000001,0.6672184767,0.6765431227,0.5884124519,0.7681145469,0.7706658108000001,0.8416018012,0.8428842456000001,0.8221839563000001,0.8375670849,0.8782613104 -m5_1D,0.8798761359,0.8753446971000001,0.8851788247,0.8851788247,0.8851788247,0.8851788247,1.2236286692,0.9677992163,1.2236286692,1.0630838856,1.0805686532,1.0632996272,1.2236286692,1.3575007837,1.3783870781 -m5_1M,1.1638225815,1.1629101784,1.1576052027,1.2421800194,1.1773037824,1.1852216988,1.1871283177,1.199580668,1.1819548335,1.2131357033,1.2589934317,1.2139006267,1.3266370526,1.2671440715,1.3915794965 -m5_1W,1.1400355515,1.1476955468,1.1647431618,1.1448252405,1.1500678738,1.1647431618,1.1604987437,1.1330759513,1.151797309,1.1567620351,1.1697733846,1.1672033988,1.3382424884,1.3382424884,1.3824089509 -proenfo_gfc12,0.8120010668000001,1.1241553096,1.0781317629,1.0781317629,1.0781317629,1.0781317629,1.0338246822,0.9935522058,1.5463300248,1.3848285732,1.5236522096,2.8114372878,1.428177457,2.6291046656,2.7528132313 -proenfo_gfc14,0.5386864242,0.9119046182,0.9285112769,0.9285112769,0.9285112769,0.9285112769,0.6406314316,0.463580052,1.1044049767,1.1681324943,1.185656643,1.3185527521,1.1988543772,3.7072504144,3.965045322 -proenfo_gfc17,0.6103924746,1.1380901313,1.0977005202,1.0977005202,1.0977005202,1.0977005202,0.8553343104000001,0.5526319982,1.4215223964,1.3821477017,1.3687323787,2.4127647331,1.5845048132,2.9066491955,3.063129907 -redset_15T,0.9320904759,1.0022286368,0.8687945356000001,0.9533624543,1.1189004499,1.4783946982,2.1719934434,1.3649343142,1.0323384841,1.0323384841,1.597597259,1.0323384841,1.0323384841,32.0340548113,33.693269119600004 -redset_1H,1.5030009285,1.4573336789,1.4842036779,1.4166961403,1.5362745519,2.6712489552000003,1.4385006498,1.5646420584,1.761972427,1.8532418262,2.0202444582,2.2287068299,1.6826194185,8.1555516024,8.1864715752 -redset_5T,0.7864618392,0.9453718328,0.8482881600000001,0.8563860838,0.9344199171,1.1699231408,0.8423602104,1.0328105291,2.1640102467,2.0719155469,2.3397807513,1.0410587245,1.0410587245,3.1480546918,3.498018604 -restaurant,0.8599090122,0.8522179843000001,0.8503096514,0.8858745474,0.8659689945,0.8659689945,0.8689264082,0.8630231098000001,0.8717386477,0.9400606666,0.9184892419,0.9391232286,1.1194990361,1.3993248163,1.4760866124 -rohlik_orders_1D,1.1869082024,1.2033753235,1.2504095981,1.3775879584,1.176067019,1.3016096527,1.547892006,1.3992895671,1.3812243729,1.5623634243,1.5185276042,1.4870315996,1.7782872152,2.4354371077,2.4953294972 -rohlik_orders_1W,1.5470873451,1.5828643626,1.6591862082,1.7980310562,1.8740325635,1.7219242334,1.9886917666,2.0951936703,1.71276995,1.7324467216,1.7121743288,1.7583263983,1.7311823321,1.7311823321,1.7566346002 -rohlik_sales_1D,1.1015615422,1.3844809879,1.3237942192,1.4539084863,1.4020532381,1.3870630122,1.6150435602000002,1.3442522277,1.4759756392,1.5092369137,1.4939231302,1.4985533338,1.6150435602000002,1.7485285579,1.7665358583000002 -rohlik_sales_1W,1.559672095,1.7354311654,1.6890705942,1.8031174582,1.8214908337,1.8466635227,1.5204800642,1.8996288065,1.8249729553,2.03785374,1.8363584706,1.8899729917,1.9154827568,1.9154827568,1.990816422 -rossmann_1D,0.3557646389,0.6600669122,0.6105528999000001,0.6814055866000001,0.6480208978,0.6371181918000001,0.2944517637,0.6154624197,0.6678317895,0.6544020781000001,0.7447792464,0.6912520753,0.7885548119,1.6195142378,1.6307564391 -rossmann_1W,0.3711869984,0.6218198341,0.654277349,0.6318509753,0.6439797931,0.6451761650000001,0.3046311863,0.6790382249,0.6512769978,0.6688824183000001,0.6643635235,0.6684782378,0.7960291356,0.7960291356,0.8779634547 -solar_1D,0.7564704559000001,0.7780027014,0.7870867805,0.7929503108,0.8134821640000001,0.8068081935,0.7848225151,0.7866198335,0.7950641496,0.8072395918,0.8376174094000001,0.8017773736,0.9900696291,0.9666968847,1.1102918555 -solar_1W,1.1789596563,1.5031298228,1.4613966872000002,1.798309645,2.0395669896,1.2719881759,1.0931583831,1.1001413936,1.7922537528,1.7335090246,2.0936290706,1.6267514936,1.9187253475,1.9187253475,2.5896105932 -solar_with_weather_15T,0.8640995981,1.0486903807,1.1152651553,0.9403149212,1.0763836253,0.9765226278,0.9444749979,1.1181879294,1.0500997059,1.0500997059,1.2728696954,2.4161932928,1.0500997059,1.989464318,2.2100824084 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+world_tourism,3.7800260773,3.8100716175,4.1100856999,2.8938052422,3.7989373011,3.3433570111,3.9098929594,3.9050210156,4.7392839763,3.0494057593,3.0054201369,3.0020743908,5.9566597951,3.899430853,3.5497221742,3.0968725509,2.9312037999,3.4851749649,3.8281690565,3.8281690565,2.8785102424 diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv index ece3b69ffd27a50651d6ee5d1bd42588640e4ce5..28e218fec860e09dece9c6074687f9144b4e9b1e 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,TFT,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False +boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False +redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False +restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv index 6cfe2e5f0e1e500b883cd628b0b2a1886aaca973..1cff26f4c035ce80181cb8abd632726c963fd29b 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_MASE_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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Ensemble,TFT,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoTheta,AutoETS,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_SQL.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL.csv index 0625c9d9e914f6144b3dd53b46ecf0cf4893e263..a0f4953a7eb0d891c254f230fbe4db3287dbdade 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.5458017173,0.5682984928,0.5771622748,0.5930359987,0.5737369405,0.5737369405,0.6023976568,0.597092731,0.7624529909000001,0.7624529909000001,1.2626027246,1.0985228656,0.7624529909000001,1.3268766411,1.3649829587 -ETT_1D,1.1315469549,1.1014613305,1.1440582667,1.1431991194,1.1321824157,1.1321824157,1.2302029516,1.2461046836,1.2707356751,1.2587593653,1.3559628802,1.3789083105,1.3728451389,1.4222525092,1.4528881358 -ETT_1H,0.8829665685,0.8735827998000001,0.8822637379,0.8726715063,0.9435863248,0.9435863248,0.93321436,0.9634114324,1.2717102201,1.052404926,1.7645010362,2.0612851578,1.2068899431,2.3136589326,2.4221862813 -ETT_1W,2.3200722308,2.264520334,2.2485701754,2.2807752001,2.2795034775,2.2795034775,2.4105571965,2.4688224531,2.4073690783,2.4423112635,2.39380306,2.603472326,2.5092678823,2.5092678823,2.63212947 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7791980564000001,0.7923359463,0.7738014961,0.8309489631,0.8051325971000001,0.8051325971000001,0.7804864737,0.8625023325000001,0.8198461462000001,0.8099517857,0.8246251865,0.8528499579000001,1.0461703776,2.4710363002,2.6285047085 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6390561899,0.6558214249000001,0.6206804936,0.6981449455000001,0.7646847805,0.7646847805,0.6785128884,0.7695770803,1.5008790861,1.5008790861,2.6385256214,2.8320370482,1.5008790861,3.5094786471,3.7005853436 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5325340237,0.5488731010000001,0.5953126390000001,0.5612747662,0.7101241523,0.7101241523,0.6414697138000001,0.6606205367,1.0436727136,1.0012742792,1.1550368249,1.1098659427,0.7515879948,1.8612988657,2.0191661844 -M_DENSE_1D,0.6463243558,0.7460414464,0.7075343346,0.8417803746,0.7589658968,0.7589658968,0.7560067856,0.7844887054,0.9647884446,0.9701754768,1.0734765679,1.1434781616,1.262653406,2.1937270172,2.2311998044 -M_DENSE_1H,0.5854558830000001,0.5867504602,0.556059175,0.6211696495,0.5952543328000001,0.5952543328000001,0.6460899053,0.6604636921,1.1265341106,1.0625833478,59.0195299046,3.0980400553,1.3040659305,3.8689657918,4.0939855017 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3932968835,0.3955981846,0.3966454244,0.4014560725,0.413175328,0.413175328,0.4285012823,0.4438538338,0.5602190946,0.5602190946,2.3550253131,0.5126750232,0.5602190946,1.3787889942,1.4174386493 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.3977234578,0.4050422075,0.4156030479,0.4183039495,0.4264135301,0.4264135301,0.4935099732,0.5170317067,0.6894973186000001,0.6584161139,12313683383.147636,0.983741696,0.8375139431,2.6856786961,2.9588624372 -australian_tourism,0.6769555487000001,0.7859715496,0.7323027992000001,0.8897084606000001,0.9175231952,0.9282641589,0.6989805801,0.7908486579,0.7300394505000001,0.8009680433,0.7615891772000001,0.8129699438,0.8947401082,1.5916364579,1.7922461374 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3010456253,0.3662951077,0.3261346281,0.3700783044,0.3419873985,0.3419873985,0.3540742815,0.4121569345,0.6336059931,0.6185436377,0.7179372865,0.6824779096,0.8851906828,0.6654111557,0.669961201 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.4108408982,0.6788551053,0.4610602059,0.5953979102,0.7570014323,0.7570014323,0.4854874227,0.4004194445,0.7197078839000001,0.8247104427,0.7310899228000001,0.7495634618,0.9226397442,0.6779088155,0.7933793841 -boomlet_1062,0.5523284751,0.5548997157000001,0.5732470754,0.5478320341,0.5927620413,0.6387175665,0.7083924656,0.6467962229,0.9851058144,0.7541477798,1.3088562197,1.3443713412,0.9105473153,4.3036993716,4.6588724435 -boomlet_1209,0.6799099954000001,0.7293072077,0.7045922388,0.645080569,0.7562347037,0.7840808515000001,1.0159986311,0.7807326884,2.4692530935,1.1085996591,1.26373922,2.7292377595,1.26373922,3.2386174338,3.5173454757 -boomlet_1225,0.1864128972,0.1876278604,0.1900803084,0.1833820954,0.1948503398,0.2030750841,0.2145097606,0.222714996,0.2803755249,0.2348969847,0.3176935124,0.3296940654,0.7453858177,0.7453858177,0.758570547 -boomlet_1230,1.201031991,1.1859324313,1.1874247824,1.1375594979,1.2863247224,1.266108854,1.6130013764000002,1.3047326747,3.3900350214,1.8500253092,393376667139840.8,3.9779653374,2.0369976474,5.548152717,5.9878393324 -boomlet_1282,0.4211360586,0.4089033383,0.4034160537,0.4069384603,0.4269211119,0.461810646,0.4252624699,0.4521593639,0.7391125197,0.5565242655,0.9135627329,0.9716916511,1.5394068156,1.5394068156,1.5690882811 -boomlet_1487,0.4233194118,0.4270074608,0.4122943587,0.4003928432,0.455761865,0.4824435432,0.7454959652,0.4989559922,0.6807093562000001,0.6560424612,0.7236915730000001,0.8366025999000001,0.8422519568,5.651237163,6.1210676162 -boomlet_1631,0.5718706997,0.5981611197000001,0.5790200299,0.5808311118,0.5907980989,0.6194052562,0.6970609561000001,0.6443979368,0.8513712543,0.8513712543,0.7214099148,0.7282739185,0.8513712543,1.3493380035,1.3890549561 -boomlet_1676,0.5686748679,0.5712459165,0.562625503,0.5544290679,0.5727147225,0.6076896737,0.8311081643,0.6145915641,0.8503822276,0.8503822276,0.7563535779,0.7835312638,0.8503822276,1.3195857419,1.3578116859 -boomlet_1855,0.4615736804,0.4500166174,0.4725778373,0.4524286557,0.464879974,0.4695926826,0.6233137320000001,0.5254199296000001,1.1233499934,1.0829482214,1.1848850765,1.204414213,1.4642665486,3.2734556686,3.2968156747 -boomlet_1975,0.1333320334,0.1921381366,0.1671766157,0.1262384828,0.2195469335,0.1793929044,0.2069952508,0.2023056594,0.5478588809,0.5505765392,0.6113593807000001,0.6292227757000001,0.8427719263000001,0.6114911297,0.6131317081000001 -boomlet_2187,0.7122729535,0.7105001322000001,0.8020040101,0.7637500168,0.8067927027,0.7746853019000001,0.9340158386,0.8515537165,1.2729717642,1.3028566624,1.3069851719,1.389411779,1.6696910974,3.0072867381,3.0279388411 -boomlet_285,0.2900640673,0.3453755039,0.3965655545,0.3185360094,0.4274151922,0.476702899,0.7127008195,0.4879211264,1.2619335645,1.1887776805,1.2033358677,1.3318503729,6.0221504695,6.0221504695,6.1302545159 -boomlet_619,0.3232653903,0.3410809257,0.3398320588,0.309878085,0.3294344187,0.4708614915,0.3305066441,0.3705071077,0.7771722948,0.5544648012,0.8944230183,0.8352158487,1.2751647052,1.2751647052,1.3005697258 -boomlet_772,0.2827797609,0.2962086426,0.2948668716,0.2810029794,0.3139115775,0.3391929948,0.3295303206,0.3520560133,1.1794168073,0.7834129974,531470228.16674185,1.4390517121,2.4909982911,2.4909982911,2.5366947218 -boomlet_963,0.7165952965,0.7184034841,0.7387586339000001,0.7199999526,0.7505200217,0.7786787266,0.7960581525,0.7521897883,1.3348061563,1.1056032467,1.6089011238,1.4536844039,1.6474289575,1.6474289575,1.6758761104 -ecdc_ili,2.2713937157,2.4106397038000003,2.2150356629,2.554483793,2.4544933394,2.6531174908,2.3819418015,2.7054455064000003,3.8373720704,3.6414550365,4.0788004388,3.8437922843,3.7763740551,3.7763740551,3.9298378029 -entsoe_15T,0.4539692649,0.4692753774,0.4709170997,0.5909160927,0.478288762,0.5061680935,0.4837394321,0.6669136238000001,0.7806910892000001,0.7806910892000001,3.0289340615,0.5794334285,0.7806910892000001,1.5177144586,1.6350644474 -entsoe_1H,0.4292730862,0.4701221987,0.4680893711,0.4795713506,0.4870732428,0.4574194964,0.4419444303,0.7440774844,0.8919673675,0.8725110581000001,1.9050298297,0.9723015525,1.0561195152,1.91535268,2.0110168444 -entsoe_30T,0.4335549531,0.5229834486,0.5657877209000001,0.4958133037,0.4883587468,0.5294317223,0.5116608489,0.7215674609,0.8465224818,0.980742171,2.492761432,0.7996836131,1.0103240484,1.6091505549,1.5911802499 -epf_be,0.5032959121,0.5270142745,0.4937475347,0.5648275564,0.5281380165,0.573131006,0.5324134798,0.6465423658,1.2134724304,1.0560628345,1.5343230451,1.4843337008000002,1.1502802436,3.0844576332,3.1070840486 -epf_de,0.491116807,1.0321659189,1.0300427797,1.1058453126,1.0163698014,1.0208059246,0.4402987265,1.1830726521,1.1665641061,1.2777053882,1.4013079444,1.4943830235,1.3876764191,1.4012218785,1.4206596948 -epf_fr,0.3617711398,0.4013687759,0.4091649941,0.4256540696,0.4092032808,0.4389128912,0.3307410445,0.461064889,1.1455989836,1.1580732451,0.8989034107,1.5911735884,1.2455233831,3.8189174071,3.8479452737 -epf_np,0.6581144952,0.9662474004,1.1706350574,1.0368665291,0.9253466826,0.971072301,0.6592724518,0.9450979115,1.2844205231,1.3932103761,1.9332061254,1.2812041765,1.5298484821,1.9403665636,1.9414483144 -epf_pjm,0.3815757864,0.4041710148,0.4263079971,0.4518928599,0.4405348981,0.4216993095,0.4270292068,0.4679144039,0.4870679588,0.48187052,0.9138786189,0.6031844165,0.5152721396000001,0.9298473491,0.9378548257 -ercot_1D,0.8691910278,0.8182837121000001,0.8296777262,0.8800154437000001,0.9470906371,0.9164572277,0.9810503129,0.9267011801,1.2548535439,1.1018625405,1.3820413333,1.4186958416,1.3382664757,1.3903868406,1.4000667198 -ercot_1H,1.0291210659,1.0649765384,1.1510446297,1.095463785,1.0976602987,1.137929015,1.2076871071,1.2226080643,1.259822515,1.1754444345,2.6755880612,1.2749705934,1.3214751318,2.6413247553,2.6942610140000003 -ercot_1M,0.7549419478,0.8060543809,0.7715311289,1.007020102,0.972573257,0.7729483605,0.9028337317,0.917392765,0.7617082171,0.7879913849,0.7564464177,0.9653005355,0.9042858434,3.4990135369,3.8188806322 -ercot_1W,0.9664287997,0.954652414,0.9324255927,1.0602182535,1.0526167016,0.9613116039,1.2284207021,1.2458511259,2.0949542269,2.089948711,2.0679213662,2.1282361494,2.0789778405,2.0789778405,2.0801083861 -favorita_stores_1D,0.9164120516,0.9681608123,0.9493623591,1.0363827033,0.9798213622,1.0322306624,0.9697812299,1.0613262128,1.1970549978,1.2216416053,1.2378827412,1.2731528133,1.6902367853,2.6356836377,2.6562348012 -favorita_stores_1M,1.7943754897000002,1.8559124197,1.9983090236,2.0093638587,2.0913151428,2.0865003553,1.9335734731,2.2542926251,1.942621879,2.0381596319,1.9424462204,1.9416452953,2.0967115946,2.0578284127,2.106703069 -favorita_stores_1W,2.0241017868,2.046240588,1.9683866102,2.1277442598,2.1965497094,2.1010925554,2.1226627361,2.3082226469,2.2196008497,2.2969051079,2.3568206927,2.3159830026,2.4938289104,2.4938289104,2.5295781907 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.684612804,1.0314215727,0.9750458566,0.9750458566,0.9750458566,0.9750458566,1.2251845822,1.1981736735,1.1848435874,1.562168577,1.1813088433,1.2463370552,1.7338216714,2.7303837473,2.7460309898 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.9426020865,1.0893114126,1.1326951058,1.3968989653,1.389630485,1.3584690914,1.2438493019,1.4526874778,1.1521708088,1.2777968435,1.1787496733,1.2743467248,1.3301725476,1.7424291672,1.8848237078 -favorita_transactions_1W,1.2279251974,1.3836394276,1.4283013139,1.5565627963000002,1.4633900473,1.4283013139,1.9116392061,1.8454095028,1.55928265,1.6323137052,1.6473855473,1.7020928499,1.6714139443,1.6714139443,1.7289504361 -fred_md_2025/cee,3.4681773516,3.3490390729,4.4904404116,4.4904404116,4.4904404116,4.4904404116,3.872866885,4.8863751494,3.7449838346,5.8791415649,3.642884743,4.3189751514,9.4371027278,5.9195737804,4.236293641 -fred_md_2025/macro,5.6801712856,5.3069669462,5.8417533276,5.8417533276,5.8417533276,5.8417533276,6.3986770227,6.2236190621,5.7428835095,6.5438633054,5.7936387412,6.0124726904,9.5793076258,6.4047596955,5.9752290488 -fred_qd_2025/cee,2.1919917498,2.0461814654,2.1807036186,1.7726716319,2.2955960423,2.3654952138,2.2915507616,3.6414340592,1.9027740715,1.9543398085,2.1232724277,2.2176909101,4.4448478957,3.675773916,2.1956616384 -fred_qd_2025/macro,3.5367304504,3.5296543064,3.5932767502000003,3.4020827998,3.6155615726,3.6544020032,4.2401411107,4.5427910096,3.6148508861,3.8675028627,3.9044348431,3.8250563211,5.2213314727,4.251884602,3.7928250976 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+world_tourism,3.0519541233,3.0521218384,3.5616996549,2.4472485416,3.2205228998,2.8124790787,3.2640026026,3.1644023312,4.7967774445,4.3603502979,3.2788829432,2.5524025228,2.9231538441,2.6184635765,3.0494057593,2.8819679835,3.0054201369,2.5742928493,3.2013302679,3.2013302679,2.3982302121 diff --git a/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv index 2b1011afdf93d3a2bfc267c63a62777f226c1b93..59d064f669cc85728f7ae2868d822411a1c75bde 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL_baseline_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,AutoETS,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False +redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False +restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv index 75505bc8c8a1c76564ca751d6855f95f65ef5d4c..bfa231cb36b1df61053dbf177e36eb3b80bf2ddd 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_SQL_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TabPFN-TS,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,True,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,Stat. Ensemble,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,AutoETS,LightGBM,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc12,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc14,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc17,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv b/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv index d878247a893e891a1dc7ed58379d51835e26f0bb..2b375770ded6131288a197217115f9e8bbb2b9b6 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.1128598566,0.1167248718,0.1158377729,0.121559811,0.122192445,0.1146202493,0.1146202493,0.1157490913,0.1473227948,0.1473227948,0.2089927338,0.1327521257,0.202845639,0.1473227948,0.209491349 -ETT_1D,0.3210531483,0.332150948,0.3280948972,0.3407840222,0.3959747152,0.3275848009,0.3275848009,0.3646975075,0.3275626761,0.3554786793,0.3392487691,0.3405146034,0.336139462,0.3566862594,0.3456173895 -ETT_1H,0.2467289659,0.245201607,0.2477475438,0.2432126313,0.2553246886,0.2464663107,0.2464663107,0.2547681354,0.2621275507,0.2729976766,0.3240313299,0.2708169587,0.3389070071,0.286422462,0.3517438181 -ETT_1W,0.5228870836,0.4956519336,0.4771292359,0.4972649187,0.5109347999,0.4599850744,0.4599850744,0.5208597481,0.4587044328,0.5033163548,0.455156821,0.4891462862,0.3963210046,0.3963210046,0.4451834112 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0363369958,0.0359623253,0.0367103025,0.0387991458,0.0365180448,0.0373221384,0.0373221384,0.0372882528,0.0378798334,0.0375884525,0.0379914595,0.0389688019,0.0786971625,0.0445690587,0.0891125299 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.0681990332,0.0643115029,0.0704373386,0.0749491051,0.0731078316,0.0797934189,0.0797934189,0.077676107,0.1172784954,0.1172784954,0.1460618883,0.1024438366,0.1526884101,0.1172784954,0.1758716479 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0736883423,0.0792618439,0.0750445005,0.075644061,0.0858088784,0.0886344958,0.0886344958,0.0829992138,0.1069220781,0.1080897018,0.1085262727,0.1108838413,0.1121638626,0.0883255631,0.130171527 -M_DENSE_1D,0.083318119,0.0935403809,0.0993285432,0.1092759416,0.0926615007,0.0985291574,0.0985291574,0.0968305223,0.1192791395,0.1260855269,0.1300925907,0.1322432969,0.196977134,0.1419847511,0.2006916501 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1462710002,0.13799605,0.1467316881,0.1535322428,0.1593384311,0.1466876373,0.1466876373,0.1584326059,0.2484246612,0.2454276025,0.3140071735,0.2921647772,0.6536297143,0.2611668751,0.707449168 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.2391328625,0.2409728497,0.2404616728,0.2440994486,0.2500552535,0.2437216282,0.2437216282,0.245247978,0.3343059897,0.3343059897,0.3189420968,0.2728340209,0.3568555236,0.3343059897,0.3669907093 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1627460048,0.1730356291,0.1678203642,0.1653927863,0.1798963994,0.1713460237,0.1713460237,0.2091502994,0.1850999221,0.2079726383,0.6624499261,0.2595272139,0.246570535,0.2122471854,0.290869683 -australian_tourism,0.0905689129,0.0948839262,0.1068701223,0.1337763593,0.0927634016,0.1308895275,0.1434193179,0.0969211906,0.0957876109,0.1101633608,0.0970393047,0.1052965894,0.1803925335,0.1130525246,0.199330695 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3308650646,0.3901138266,0.4282031118,0.5299379429000001,0.360369738,0.4081446098,0.4081446098,0.4650631395,1.3223615305,1.7735276449,1.2847489447,1.3980487641,1.3024706409,2.2812914532,1.3151569486 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.4957355787,0.9057201819,1.4135781384,1.2221172807,0.8823374127,1.3254390534,1.3254390534,0.6893105085,1.3437154961,1.5979523685,1.3366881806,1.6561117344,1.2818957102,2.2837712012,1.8269103833 -boomlet_1062,0.5680818423,0.5789273618,0.5749673398,0.5677611841,0.5832466359,0.5945871048,0.6012691446,0.6355941124000001,0.7826401234,0.7457671713,0.8238335352,0.8386591385000001,1.0029399408,0.8355847068000001,1.0990104974 -boomlet_1209,0.3048900987,0.3045249204,0.3234299188,0.2916179846,0.3865331056,0.3292905567,0.3271624692,0.3340434651,0.4339859435,0.4278108916,0.4784097772,0.456201244,0.4388518186,0.4784097772,0.5110153038 -boomlet_1225,0.1220172782,0.1242312214,0.1230602603,0.1206233559,0.1326060004,0.1278310667,0.1331294786,0.1333109416,0.153843496,0.1446868773,0.1598025897,0.1596047961,0.195260353,0.195260353,0.1988768318 -boomlet_1230,0.3054680901,0.2999179457,0.3117769108,0.2909953139,0.3497826156,0.3094188715,0.3241073897,0.3178766378,0.3894998971,0.3998710697,0.4274646386,0.4040077124,0.3912469672,0.4654206108,0.4504819196 -boomlet_1282,0.3551724804,0.3418466096,0.3447100926,0.3443926057,0.3517501049,0.3639267584,0.3918061855,0.360391448,0.4329732117,0.4049750815,0.4705070178,0.471762625,0.5673586508,0.5673586508,0.5815167152 -boomlet_1487,0.2009541891,0.1978987699,0.2042655856,0.1894979433,0.2418147345,0.2079859222,0.2074861592,0.2194652483,0.2612758556,0.259043758,0.2614417874,0.270651306,0.2881606094,0.2823812783,0.3361342464 -boomlet_1631,0.3118222283,0.3155328254,0.3227136546,0.3156198487,0.3554736745,0.322950287,0.3246407648,0.3276903199,0.4303123065,0.4303123065,0.3481223856,0.3499573969,0.3828907337,0.4303123065,0.3956788492 -boomlet_1676,0.3237391089,0.3195228016,0.3219743376,0.3173684891,0.3439016851,0.3274155865,0.3288848916,0.3249830057,0.4490416802,0.4490416802,0.3539671682,0.3605949771,0.3738144227,0.4490416802,0.3871649546 -boomlet_1855,0.1587321378,0.1647552303,0.157446321,0.1576757028,0.1950387305,0.1619848815,0.1634840172,0.1777051742,0.2153578225,0.2241676514,0.2190390133,0.2310231853,0.2028796298,0.255325092,0.2044042459 -boomlet_1975,0.0905538287,0.1160976808,0.1343890613,0.0860611707,0.1347071896,0.1478435607,0.1244086675,0.1286565167,0.3327476291,0.3661623288,0.4015633572,0.3240569453,0.4014330303,0.5204730918,0.4021568225 -boomlet_2187,0.2656522618,0.2903383515,0.2640573038,0.2836815666,0.3217076673,0.2926881402,0.2890647493,0.3149817281,0.4073318877,0.4429809169,0.4339327821,0.441407778,0.403332821,0.465180005,0.4079644265 -boomlet_285,0.1637453323,0.1907992813,0.1807812872,0.1596092123,0.1742876602,0.2203877039,0.2555644857,0.2649652282,0.3599062982,0.34433789,0.3622854223,0.3717445356,0.6725665377000001,0.6725665377000001,0.6908623011 -boomlet_619,0.2998264354,0.3117435689,0.317407313,0.2789135486,0.3036044294,0.3062168618,0.4683247317,0.3109702097,0.8714422486000001,0.5880218188,0.9528967892,0.8820872245,0.9458725577,0.9458725577,0.9676378967 -boomlet_772,0.1571995002,0.160275506,0.16101018,0.1544767227,0.1705900793,0.1698505863,0.1845645847,0.1812428949,0.2635364999,0.2378165958,0.3077275646,0.2834336899,0.2919496069,0.2919496069,0.2993941878 -boomlet_963,0.3817032517,0.397875566,0.3901485342,0.3792164679,0.415064609,0.4169379192,0.4316260388,0.4042673384,0.5013279652,0.5164873201,0.5458354699,0.5049570994,0.5169750445,0.5169750445,0.5254156838 -ecdc_ili,0.3759767271,0.4172024563,0.4242536306,0.4693168223,0.3879963517,0.4756085008,0.4956143111,0.5432749093,0.5675356537,0.5880377501,0.6168868512,0.5694230199,0.5534411848,0.5534411848,0.5846513778 -entsoe_15T,0.04219648,0.0416073938,0.0420496514,0.0522911714,0.0426369185,0.0423905659,0.0428303072,0.0564987165,0.067677392,0.067677392,0.4080646552,0.0539835229,0.1434365042,0.067677392,0.1567171741 -entsoe_1H,0.0329469333,0.0358633269,0.0363473815,0.0365800265,0.0333449995,0.0395727229,0.0341011005,0.0554685768,0.0833389089,0.0854086541,0.1569610283,0.0836396273,0.1571170386,0.0792450108,0.1671798959 -entsoe_30T,0.0367303018,0.0473410125,0.0399606742,0.0378812171,0.0390591249,0.038267585,0.0378308199,0.0519962882,0.0767360015,0.090934383,0.241174338,0.0721444593,0.1462993909,0.0870952165,0.1450240765 -epf_be,0.115556011,0.11255784,0.1230011668,0.1323491182,0.1179565661,0.1227849199,0.1357350046,0.1303241445,0.1754423061,0.1986222906,0.2487520538,0.1881915066,0.237576263,0.1840044525,0.2400494121 -epf_de,0.291016907,0.5914115101,0.5786662247000001,0.6772215117,0.3069136301,0.5364827175,0.5606896855,0.5721812874000001,0.6023222137,0.6818832021,0.6107009687,0.6459928796000001,0.6107063688000001,0.7489839181,0.6189188711 -epf_fr,0.0680296275,0.0771284029,0.0797966965,0.0836794117,0.0618426707,0.079128382,0.0876754681,0.0812654203,0.1133474851,0.1532071637,0.1492719604,0.1293735383,0.1702834178,0.1298259975,0.1727491379 -epf_np,0.0381853723,0.0639044802,0.0554376821,0.0616097255,0.0386706958,0.0542902095,0.0566988389,0.0496031295,0.0682523511,0.078622775,0.1040808285,0.0688152587,0.1036567884,0.0796461385,0.1036498375 -epf_pjm,0.0821098361,0.0941735437,0.08936894,0.1030592872,0.092521411,0.0975614782,0.0937614741,0.0934227692,0.0933501931,0.098476214,0.1716884077,0.1198625589,0.1717319913,0.1016348289,0.1742728941 -ercot_1D,0.0765202672,0.0756690312,0.075154368,0.0810110342,0.0898239311,0.0819215234,0.0793944309,0.0776411118,0.1129253348,0.1103588376,0.117865942,0.1169790924,0.1179466095,0.1245740173,0.1188580243 -ercot_1H,0.0691227315,0.0764717873,0.0705278089,0.0721937651,0.0795933543,0.0716643825,0.0730120171,0.074077414,0.0829790251,0.0749658542,0.1808560818,0.081462577,0.1561551619,0.0818516593,0.156225403 -ercot_1M,0.0474946219,0.0484172593,0.0524891056,0.0669821394,0.05342761,0.0656316509,0.0511789478,0.051032866,0.0481692294,0.0493777886,0.0470737303,0.0593784221,0.266211768,0.0529377862,0.2937269539 -ercot_1W,0.0589590463,0.059191324,0.0586846132,0.0654530676,0.0684465686,0.0638612125,0.0599824842,0.0685063219,0.1453860532,0.1429765524,0.1469057526,0.1458645716,0.1442763271,0.1442763271,0.1446279654 -favorita_stores_1D,0.1382725313,0.1452467814,0.1518204361,0.1783829153,0.1485749632,0.1568098612,0.1742722556,0.1561883375,0.1788716882,0.1934442326,0.1871851772,0.1834860831,0.3056042403,0.2519854262,0.3071700007 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1303168371,0.2102531455,0.1893665791,0.1978285983,0.1158652566,0.2355426997,0.263652347,0.2560960427,0.1466952749,0.1385348588,0.1568281725,0.1535032243,0.1232989542,0.1900056936,0.1430777609 -favorita_stores_1W,0.1289288979,0.1308373965,0.1345634833,0.1511486098,0.1259902738,0.1555078961,0.1579625078,0.1497412801,0.1436039165,0.1500959687,0.148442591,0.1443628684,0.1528069191,0.1528069191,0.1540484183 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.0611646173,0.0873474585,0.0820303043,0.0873474585,0.0773345503,0.0873474585,0.0873474585,0.0798803577,0.1005134217,0.1204928338,0.1010010868,0.0961165557,0.1561206006,0.1460640723,0.1564211233 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0719262234,0.0741879094,0.0772057417,0.0891149079,0.0822258855,0.0863027538,0.0940793492,0.0944761617,0.0746712369,0.0833974167,0.075680572,0.0943706955,0.0830064558,0.0907197162,0.0979339545 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0562127232,0.0628811317,0.0590786255,0.0686957029,0.070972002,0.0671727598,0.0628811317,0.0715127803,0.0683781244,0.0730921635,0.0708877588,0.0703343528,0.0709917221,0.0709917221,0.0733929446 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0808948604,0.0893563021,0.0771422869,0.0893563021,0.0853241075,0.0893563021,0.0893563021,0.1094554538,0.0880950077,0.101570566,0.0874256578,0.0903405098,0.0912865269,0.1825383855,0.0899785994 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.0797789855,0.0832975223,0.0786031675,0.0832975223,0.0845430854,0.0832975223,0.0832975223,0.0866654116,0.0850931924,0.0913136788,0.0855845023,0.086868012,0.0864161201,0.1316369599,0.0862326509 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.1657290639,0.1558658059,0.146726247,0.1320567852,0.1495637866,0.1528913536,0.1553945123,0.2050228651,0.1535186178,0.1628828034,0.163525425,0.1604369975,0.1646972333,0.2083851339,0.1613227853 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.1070199647,0.1036789802,0.1035667702,0.1019809656,0.1155847,0.1058608346,0.1074347071,0.1156803335,0.1102426328,0.1150225402,0.1130458034,0.1135594273,0.112650905,0.1422945023,0.1116643421 -gvar,0.0184834703,0.0187466032,0.0185361033,0.0183949311,0.0235774602,0.0185879215,0.0189676567,0.0219536834,0.018235926,0.0184923184,0.0183902988,0.0183729022,0.0185624258,0.0239340235,0.017942446 -hermes,0.0028845992,0.0029142732,0.0030851755,0.0043706582,0.003404404,0.0033616596,0.003208007,0.0036552635,0.0078905979,0.0063903024,0.0088396827,0.0081041083,0.0087068714,0.0087068714,0.0088381628 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.7004947938,0.6943961620000001,0.6893573284000001,0.6904558182,0.7258024514,0.6949587405000001,0.6949587405000001,0.7362602293,0.8618716657000001,0.80726372,0.9335796714,0.9374910116,1.0676994622,1.0205006063,1.0792345285 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.4327760933,0.4307300597,0.4324219674,0.4364300489,0.4384448647,0.4394375533,0.4394375533,0.4750745565,0.5484556556,0.5603942513,0.6528081954,0.5616531372,0.7169096172,0.7169096172,0.73438465 -hospital,0.0955333467,0.0891746506,0.0908275228,0.0951568279,0.0931978375,0.0947973169,0.0947973169,0.1026285514,0.0920567866,0.1056054849,0.0927931517,0.0992142502,0.117495615,0.0954293236,0.1240455657 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.5318945219,0.533603767,0.532626473,0.5320996389,0.5375386306000001,0.5332016895,0.5337376775,0.5358891719000001,0.5351516929,0.5348244904,0.5349606606,0.5510431179,0.7243229402,0.7622172844,0.7295191623 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.2115394616,0.212422525,0.2142321087,0.2188375845,0.2122697207,0.2152673571,0.214606831,0.2139370313,0.2126255133,0.212284724,0.2122781935,0.2190619932,0.2933695345,0.2933695345,0.30397943 -jena_weather_10T,0.2751553475,0.257587004,0.2777656166,0.2483462442,0.2988471952,0.3021136379,0.3021136379,0.3908659499,0.7879570897,0.7879570897,0.3862366249,0.3075604132,0.340848519,0.7879570897,0.5317361675 -jena_weather_1D,0.2763651402,0.2713017484,0.2731164291,0.2763100538,0.2843381079,0.2784405042,0.2784405042,0.306889223,0.3410053076,0.3394734252,0.3844678975,0.3648304911,0.3843897356,0.4190868366,0.4042778883 -jena_weather_1H,0.2537129335,0.2603537007,0.2506694068,0.2467585944,0.2825195241,0.2519024358,0.2519024358,0.435202554,0.3278975237,0.9374862075,0.3521687292,0.2954772817,0.328573375,0.7711870382,0.3343243943 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,1.3604878279,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,2.9485943079,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,1.5299117744,3.3046866596,3.3046866596,2.0494638503,2.1184663236,2.0376436353,3.3046866596,2.1939117908 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7152167839,0.7140720218000001,0.722069484,0.709543103,0.729861784,0.7286467254,0.7228399217,0.7455375254000001,0.7985714674000001,0.7844091415000001,0.8128879607,0.8038047969000001,0.8071428537,0.9081870615,0.8271189928 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,1.5203947999,1.9992301464,1.5899849832,1.6237983048,2.7372743011000003,1.3630170584,2.6893893838,1.8708190978,2.1525859416,2.579102248,2.3230794907,2.3053818822,2.2917796373,3.122066617,2.3595300138 -m5_1D,0.7030550556,0.7110159993,0.7024515271,0.7110159993,0.9158941507,0.7110159993,0.7110159993,0.735691011,0.9158941507,0.7716780305000001,0.7714367509000001,0.7779017687,1.0240883827,0.9158941507,1.0368541479 -m5_1M,0.4288781907,0.4248805046,0.4305847585,0.459651649,0.4364556372,0.4363167882,0.4455042779,0.4508921802,0.4417713284,0.4600670636,0.4605289102,0.491009295,0.4776364863,0.5107533932,0.5485711098 -m5_1W,0.4283166904,0.4334180355,0.4280506968,0.4278151095,0.4357982576,0.4286454916,0.4334180355,0.4258472919,0.4386759996,0.4387526214,0.4468327463,0.4475453794,0.5041812062000001,0.5041812062000001,0.5192105174 -proenfo_gfc12,0.069590554,0.09096132,0.0953878213,0.09096132,0.0878337689,0.09096132,0.09096132,0.0814341474,0.140745189,0.1193260785,0.2331060618,0.1359507203,0.2325648576,0.1285183787,0.2455491483 -proenfo_gfc14,0.0263798704,0.0454557415,0.0447395099,0.0454557415,0.0314071138,0.0454557415,0.0454557415,0.022570387,0.0540108977,0.0571345754,0.0646636074,0.0579787859,0.1831386365,0.0586917939,0.1959836841 -proenfo_gfc17,0.0395739348,0.0744532838,0.0764463827,0.0744532838,0.0562544549,0.0744532838,0.0744532838,0.0343229823,0.0960090132,0.0943354612,0.1663142737,0.0931363594,0.1911468029,0.1077746021,0.2018542446 -redset_15T,0.2581138326,0.3049023062,0.2957181528,0.3032550395,0.2824990153,0.3051173747,0.3266223073,0.3414731026,0.3900802583,0.3900802583,0.3900802583,0.4040436536,0.5721419543,0.3900802583,0.5907099247 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Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv index da1b1aa0898ccbbae8471bf6c8f15076ffff7bcc..14db2d98a448b26550776d3e3016160ad82dc46f 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WAPE_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,Chronos-2,TimesFM-2.5,TiRex,FlowState,TabPFN-TS,Toto-1.0,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,CatBoost,LightGBM,Stat. Ensemble,TFT,PatchTST,DeepAR,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Naive,Seasonal Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1D,False,True,False,True,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1D,False,True,False,True,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WQL.csv b/tables/pivot_WQL.csv index 114dff774c08cc00eeeb3cfb98c4e88fdc2db92c..e9819e879f3161aba2c6962fc4880bc488c326cf 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,0.088140917,0.0914609728,0.0925313491,0.0951691601,0.0966499793,0.0933383153,0.0933383153,0.0969683943,0.1224205307,0.1224205307,0.1889663006,0.170235374,0.1224205307,0.2051287363,0.2108337564 -ETT_1D,0.2599714581,0.2612366718,0.267888696,0.2741924035,0.3179643477,0.2669855109,0.2669855109,0.3129149392,0.3227852613,0.3320927513,0.3649904644,0.360480833,0.3642035745,0.3538102937,0.3621092269 -ETT_1H,0.1929432618,0.1923900276,0.1916135933,0.189981304,0.2034494101,0.2059476241,0.2059476241,0.2146782131,0.2620350459,0.2275419988,0.3554423083,0.387905148,0.2597090183,0.4903424451,0.5136644933 -ETT_1W,0.4180629794,0.3834384084,0.3998766685,0.3901701003,0.4148319078,0.3737931634,0.3737931634,0.4643316617,0.4495446321,0.4761461158,0.4577441806,0.4986518854,0.4614224698,0.4614224698,0.4961494694 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.0294338099,0.029926259,0.0292182088,0.0313094796,0.0295572487,0.0304002738,0.0304002738,0.0326217509,0.0310410872,0.0306907047,0.0311914855,0.0325479384,0.0397058571,0.0919262659,0.0978699313 -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.0547949407,0.0562291392,0.0529133781,0.0599067065,0.0580208445,0.0662523771,0.0662523771,0.0664487294,0.1307515175,0.1307515175,0.2388070951,0.2528752457,0.1307515175,0.3038598558,0.3206568541 -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.0574848175,0.0594513843,0.0643709018,0.0606719844,0.0689450513,0.0781392419,0.0781392419,0.0714930823,0.1151931596,0.1111745205,0.1270606325,0.121969972,0.081199984,0.1936404655,0.210202567 -M_DENSE_1D,0.0712116931,0.0821914373,0.0773717212,0.0906527349,0.0776412798,0.0817335467,0.0817335467,0.0844361527,0.1131422312,0.1051447846,0.1323504645,0.1459052349,0.1367572058,0.2323397334,0.2363624963 -M_DENSE_1H,0.1198308475,0.1208851977,0.1143436056,0.1267713853,0.1296769427,0.1209575592,0.1209575592,0.1339606641,0.2346087824,0.2211301613,12.8518608164,0.7918015547,0.2731296131,0.84829413,0.8946267050000001 -SZ_TAXI_15T,0.1878149403,0.1889248146,0.1894354422,0.1918294193,0.2040341404,0.197437778,0.197437778,0.2118998785,0.2672484294,0.2672484294,0.9991056751,0.2434722417,0.2672484294,0.6619538384,0.6804962505000001 -SZ_TAXI_1H,0.1329118955,0.1368741884,0.1394973218,0.1399772683,0.1666049443,0.1447212932,0.1447212932,0.1764986928,0.2449234495,0.2187159408,4510502977.541462,0.3559208311,0.2910650923,0.9157567452,1.0097515601 -australian_tourism,0.0714093581,0.0861105624,0.0761527549,0.1044141415,0.07310177,0.1053900171,0.1140447009,0.0836038879,0.0747720206,0.0866216851,0.0760110551,0.0823354804,0.0905870679,0.1922018184,0.2141353268 -bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.2574968709,0.3395892762,0.3062390652,0.4180692521,0.3020415377,0.3259227696,0.3259227696,0.4028991374,1.2739406784,1.4044947577,1.4288888475,1.3542131559,2.0969368333,1.3379066541,1.3508241876 -bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.3972980474,1.2724528657,0.7904916189000001,1.0846777557,0.6797159368,1.2750077013,1.2750077013,0.5857720953000001,1.5128526941,1.8771775481,1.6113720868,1.6069322946,2.2877704895,1.4507804453,1.731649134 -boomlet_1062,0.4575715706,0.462540047,0.4710064002,0.4560339911,0.4854876351,0.4872201343,0.5409239931000001,0.5396810790000001,0.7822110511,0.5907259586,1.0658179181,1.085539266,0.7418110944,3.1996986673,3.4646472151 -boomlet_1209,0.2624618736,0.2759885511,0.2609844697,0.2511164388,0.3699793008,0.2879466627,0.301826322,0.2937933689,1.0148176093,0.4535022053,0.5015055777,1.1157526247,0.5015055777,1.328999921,1.4420052382000002 -boomlet_1225,0.0982049927,0.0990409314,0.1000748977,0.0968533979,0.1144239787,0.1024577962,0.1066372427,0.1172112941,0.1451941336,0.12260998,0.1651551358,0.1711256418,0.3809038981,0.3809038981,0.3876340759 -boomlet_1230,0.2619779044,0.2653064283,0.2547608466,0.2477353188,0.3987332881,0.2744689053,0.3010213735,0.2814650284,0.9994018454,0.4477425115,228079607857629.03,1.1951987922,0.5006062673,1.7490874961,1.895555107 -boomlet_1282,0.285764271,0.2813823066,0.2769507583,0.2786303196,0.292132349,0.2943955518,0.3174313196,0.3125554342,0.49773322,0.3750317971,0.62613098,0.6672579187000001,1.0473420209,1.0473420209,1.0675288199 -boomlet_1487,0.1664420374,0.1679334305,0.1621616582,0.1572610369,0.2936465116,0.179562264,0.190011281,0.1963999731,0.2664583485,0.2570055801,0.2835559204,0.3266562805,0.3287160259,2.1936503487,2.3761204352 -boomlet_1631,0.2500221983,0.2578011825,0.2521962154,0.2530865122,0.294595714,0.2594328079,0.2712471357,0.2762733263,0.3678343488,0.3678343488,0.3219452018,0.3246702609,0.3678343488,0.5939295732000001,0.6115095201 -boomlet_1676,0.2538630455,0.2548401001,0.2519960915,0.2495295993,0.2853155601,0.2579772293,0.2757684538,0.274422727,0.3899388202,0.3899388202,0.3561141453,0.3689668234,0.3899388202,0.5376397046,0.5530190574 -boomlet_1855,0.1371847144,0.1348268939,0.1418942616,0.1355059408,0.1913295293,0.139558043,0.1402605794,0.1563253928,0.2389634823,0.2316298817,0.2553622581,0.2591897672,0.3053456375,0.5272950774,0.5309525567 -boomlet_1975,0.0754861445,0.1095269694,0.0946619153,0.0726927455,0.1155713746,0.1195154441,0.1030843609,0.1103445012,0.3109341662,0.3101025558,0.3508947927,0.3645838608,0.490065287,0.3511931898,0.3522290761 -boomlet_2187,0.2318940214,0.2304085287,0.2575487452,0.24435445,0.2994495011,0.2578882698,0.2524757438,0.2800640842,0.4312238249,0.4412020452,0.4456954551,0.4740037125,0.5699897289,1.0418096521,1.049295268 -boomlet_285,0.1346407886,0.148143136,0.1683399577,0.1331450908,0.1553438735,0.1889532567,0.2234209762,0.2244579194,0.3030251372,0.2917086037,0.3012758228,0.3165758913,1.2032068551,1.2032068551,1.2258270453 -boomlet_619,0.2302330542,0.2471279568,0.2458341339,0.2162579975,0.2349216897,0.2356420104,0.3764453393,0.2649462131,0.6585898854000001,0.4527380943,0.7635945062,0.6993259862,0.9678549923,0.9678549923,0.9877621571 -boomlet_772,0.133101379,0.136682574,0.1358824185,0.1307594429,0.1546550252,0.1437870275,0.155831971,0.1611776721,0.4436068427,0.3102148884,233223016.4792193,0.5422949313000001,0.9858607218,0.9858607218,1.0040136572 -boomlet_963,0.3166849574,0.3257730396,0.3291269599,0.3152013005,0.368648075,0.3420300574,0.3596501239,0.3456713575,0.6331985559000001,0.5019102045,0.7424657093,0.716591367,0.811345873,0.811345873,0.8256079501 -ecdc_ili,0.3096012701,0.3706244122,0.3434282741,0.3944662068,0.3232828815,0.3850819865,0.4167010575,0.4694310556,0.5427352164,0.5348657716,0.5818744542000001,0.5760490118,0.5547015104,0.5547015104,0.5751070381 -entsoe_15T,0.0332921944,0.03370606,0.0334792124,0.0413516905,0.0335205629,0.0343344442,0.0362665583,0.0499695365,0.0566124331,0.0566124331,0.313985467,0.04302748,0.0566124331,0.1154915649,0.1262425683 -entsoe_1H,0.0261903902,0.0293722588,0.029016943,0.0302241335,0.0272967255,0.033285571,0.0281751907,0.050980506,0.0660357719,0.0666871832,0.1446894285,0.0693891454,0.0798215745,0.144830171,0.1529602098 -entsoe_30T,0.0290675118,0.0314140317,0.0388367365,0.0301774471,0.0321818804,0.0318440586,0.0321248654,0.0485585461,0.0612238614,0.0731621073,0.1815717143,0.0571609073,0.0725922166,0.1142494542,0.1132384606 -epf_be,0.0901568527,0.0962218885,0.0904647786,0.1057693667,0.0932975438,0.0968269743,0.106932535,0.116974555,0.2109061816,0.1868416274,0.2658805243,0.2582438044,0.2012625857,0.5357212884,0.5396597512 -epf_de,0.2407177006,0.468452292,0.4775486473,0.5515425934,0.2426255873,0.4585770885,0.4643713196,0.5102784096,0.4882154408,0.5432797572,0.5287818089,0.6490481061000001,0.5919144005,0.5286529239000001,0.5344012453 -epf_fr,0.0548184758,0.063925129,0.0640304463,0.0682821872,0.0491162423,0.0646047834,0.0684544774,0.0719692742,0.1676570118,0.171487674,0.1386675645,0.2296495476,0.1818024008,0.5500836774,0.5542629353 -epf_np,0.0297236562,0.0438147562,0.0519221,0.0471320493,0.0293296573,0.0419786745,0.0445199614,0.0428252373,0.05738593,0.0636813178,0.086372811,0.0578512541,0.0691889058,0.0868798682,0.0869585173 -epf_pjm,0.0667749027,0.071403604,0.0757086151,0.0799833604,0.0739926826,0.0766169612,0.0739331273,0.084093308,0.0862614181,0.0855296797,0.1606961463,0.1068456977,0.0908421958,0.1641666584,0.1656245552 -ercot_1D,0.059742223,0.0583644776,0.0590120341,0.0621409451,0.0688811199,0.0637608291,0.0620146905,0.0665392831,0.0936050684,0.0865494548,0.1027502478,0.1055339552,0.1044921679,0.1043182678,0.1051661229 -ercot_1H,0.0517757176,0.0542294904,0.0584985426,0.0555864688,0.0615615188,0.0563341027,0.0597259069,0.0625128045,0.0642267414,0.0597358018,0.1494485063,0.0646341807,0.0682466944,0.1331050238,0.1354763369 -ercot_1M,0.0374032877,0.0419160577,0.0380629909,0.0530588211,0.0407906509,0.0509930124,0.0398626935,0.0434627402,0.0375336712,0.0388325707,0.0371511279,0.0470765052,0.0427842586,0.2106942527,0.2307212042 -ercot_1W,0.0461530362,0.0457429263,0.0465659059,0.0515355854,0.0531508617,0.0502061941,0.0467287195,0.0583864951,0.1138242996,0.1129826874,0.1134717335,0.1163159858,0.1143459151,0.1143459151,0.1147730701 -favorita_stores_1D,0.1111436042,0.1242660249,0.1184216613,0.1439165317,0.1204039869,0.1278709711,0.1418629323,0.1353609503,0.1606265395,0.1647292421,0.1672181851,0.1778642628,0.2375760789,0.4079240646,0.4110111744 -favorita_stores_1M,0.1214689688,0.1421527991,0.1508910378,0.1391907522,0.0943255732,0.1725604577,0.1852146109,0.2222006124,0.1265354908,0.1314480379,0.1328922997,0.1244588255,0.1715121001,0.1701131599,0.1843808726 -favorita_stores_1W,0.1088586482,0.1134128786,0.109472936,0.1223103152,0.1011036417,0.1243048273,0.1268154753,0.1312294599,0.1336292959,0.1331314369,0.1429768358,0.1407957933,0.1608274596,0.1608274596,0.1626164075 -favorita_transactions_1D,0.0493905059,0.067704191,0.0735763953,0.0735763953,0.0603391606,0.0735763953,0.0735763953,0.0710714949,0.094900864,0.1055051904,0.0944759338,0.0991455646,0.1403339153,0.2372471038,0.2388998485 -favorita_transactions_1M,0.0604582892,0.0683964364,0.0642577109,0.0770716759,0.0718016091,0.0756335151,0.0799691906,0.0834713904,0.0705845865,0.0776326578,0.0709936943,0.0829960463,0.0855815678,0.1052862092,0.1152703332 -favorita_transactions_1W,0.0471234517,0.049259837,0.0528246684,0.0575771001,0.0575076503,0.0569446098,0.0528246684,0.0632163955,0.0648065086,0.0648478224,0.0694461916,0.0703094331,0.0783787891,0.0783787891,0.080280481 -fred_md_2025/cee,0.0668234172,0.0670834958,0.0750783838,0.0750783838,0.0743757483,0.0750783838,0.0750783838,0.0954701869,0.1051946757,0.133660425,0.0757646768,0.1182489158,0.2073879582,0.1174362958,0.1155920484 -fred_md_2025/macro,0.0658449,0.0651736736,0.0689005701,0.0689005701,0.0703198143,0.0689005701,0.0689005701,0.0758142866,0.0780002055,0.0859787221,0.0754502178,0.0815239103,0.119592083,0.0816199937,0.0813235213 -fred_qd_2025/cee,0.13493629,0.1205702323,0.1290291477,0.1111966207,0.1232875729,0.1271824649,0.1238446163,0.1631968012,0.1373877839,0.1474873424,0.1365938852,0.1482369083,0.194192155,0.1537726616,0.1492650928 -fred_qd_2025/macro,0.0877492891,0.0847291191,0.0852353396,0.0836177008,0.0926080385,0.0863520335,0.0870314598,0.1012011908,0.0918310561,0.0955504799,0.0949233782,0.0954220424,0.1198022215,0.0963745296,0.0950284899 -gvar,0.0149820687,0.0150792847,0.0152665936,0.0149166365,0.0179419087,0.015061142,0.015482776,0.0185296964,0.0162937715,0.0169170494,0.0159433726,0.0166324554,0.0212211567,0.0176762713,0.0174836229 -hermes,0.00225818,0.0024187939,0.0022928048,0.0036102677,0.0026219625,0.0026712263,0.0025240351,0.0031453384,0.0061269301,0.0050407278,0.0073879456,0.0068258834,0.0087083111,0.0087083111,0.0090940295 -hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5714809959,0.5556084899,0.5615462267,0.5599444088000001,0.5928670205000001,0.5634020932,0.5634020932,0.647815962,0.8177303567,0.6915383974,0.9358165942,0.9689367577,1.1222145629,1.6764214744,1.6911406182 -hierarchical_sales_1W,0.3648561995,0.3675267983,0.36900549,0.3702396077,0.3741749103,0.3762527696,0.3762527696,0.4228486488,0.465201591,0.4672185482,7.8275973261,0.4883602498,0.9260072924,0.9260072924,0.9465583798 -hospital,0.0748078224,0.0726720337,0.0714240645,0.0782312026,0.0744330876,0.075323756,0.075323756,0.0900986355,0.0749195627,0.0845424144,0.0759570393,0.0813819141,0.0783920641,0.1042062258,0.1105393325 -hospital_admissions_1D,0.4112482571,0.4117757474,0.4124642645,0.4120033633,0.4170562141,0.4120897736,0.4125280894,0.4526293478,0.41312756,0.4121681663,0.4122712942,0.4263733391,0.6361459769000001,0.9837276521,0.9916738218 -hospital_admissions_1W,0.1624167729,0.1647817222,0.1632100946,0.1680866908,0.163762699,0.1651659256,0.1652841678,0.1802484199,0.1630497452,0.1631143081,0.1628325575,0.168270042,0.2969374559,0.2969374559,0.3078008055 -jena_weather_10T,0.2528507588,0.2661828374,0.2127668736,0.2353999499,0.2551716964,0.2625552838,0.2625552838,0.3371179261,1.7057621919,1.7057621919,3.1495387185,3.5724878985,1.7057621919,3.6828586054,3.8552910899 -jena_weather_1D,0.2257062563,0.2210204491,0.218506197,0.2246469289,0.2320364869,0.2254046561,0.2254046561,0.2665635899,0.3084284928,0.3017046194,0.3511726073,0.352949988,0.4719762386,0.6992484433,0.7361988018000001 -jena_weather_1H,0.2250019598,0.2168159034,0.2233014541,0.2068719624,0.2343045768,0.234099159,0.234099159,0.4350680693,1.0549343053,0.8256929905,1.4084504179,1.6859107034,1.2878361856,1.6601789319,1.6730314795 -kdd_cup_2022_10T,1.2012688912,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,2.3282104591,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,1.3753457151,3.4658735242,3.4658735242,2.5986419348,2.5543058657,3.4658735242,2.6760920983,2.9246115818 -kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.5599962195,0.556621323,0.5527344226,0.5570149360000001,0.5680073145,0.5630864114,0.5631888802,0.6469029607,0.5920639476,0.5843812529,0.6089510673,0.5966451508,0.75069981,0.9265198159,0.948426295 -kdd_cup_2022_30T,1.3117733464,1.3401124353,1.6757596515,1.3756596821,2.2207570053,1.2046794654,2.2656435299,1.6183676077,2.2310513851,2.1850967479,2.6468743604,2.5972049691,3.2580293089,2.5790907336,2.6373925567 -m5_1D,0.5553520672,0.5522750547,0.5619946767,0.5619946767,0.8588793502000001,0.5619946767,0.5619946767,0.6369837787,0.8588793502000001,0.611489809,0.6156373922,0.6265285781000001,0.8588793502000001,1.352981474,1.3656864863 -m5_1M,0.3477280433,0.3446529974,0.3370295405,0.3648378977,0.3466619129,0.3456589364,0.3566383823,0.3886462021,0.3701215676,0.380094291,0.4320692413,0.4195249159,0.4285745193,0.4471596243,0.5002848742 -m5_1W,0.3375480209,0.3359465585,0.3409590155,0.3368808055,0.3436698517,0.3361267514,0.3409590155,0.3622685986,0.3617147564,0.3580006782,0.3728147004,0.3767071031,0.5198944018,0.5198944018,0.5321822364000001 -proenfo_gfc12,0.0555966972,0.0771150803,0.077263494,0.077263494,0.0702222225,0.077263494,0.077263494,0.0732963269,0.1181658339,0.0987456528,0.2072982242,0.1250899583,0.1088404134,0.2075379042,0.2175193024 -proenfo_gfc14,0.0210605929,0.0353901819,0.0375513457,0.0375513457,0.0252054415,0.0375513457,0.0375513457,0.0204786531,0.0444124312,0.0464290142,0.0544938011,0.0519159577,0.0529491741,0.158759622,0.1683589627 -proenfo_gfc17,0.0315349159,0.0597007945,0.0608284875,0.0608284875,0.0440642892,0.0608284875,0.0608284875,0.0315794369,0.0769991028,0.0761960672,0.146648178,0.0769725348,0.0897222269,0.1691034077,0.1777795871 -redset_15T,0.2174028756,0.2431114555,0.2501147518,0.2510706717,0.2325884637,0.2504748238,0.2713077355,0.2914044606,0.4607365658,0.4607365658,0.4607365658,0.940375013,0.4607365658,1.565727146,1.6075485006 -redset_1H,0.1754538486,0.1792595698,0.1953408446,0.1912104253,0.1873583276,0.1892621749,0.2027229088,0.2287683337,0.3644260201,0.347358315,3.3022819464,0.471399676,0.4120467256,0.8881015738,0.8935980201 -redset_5T,0.2706931879,0.3109114114,0.288140782,0.2789818321,0.289831124,0.3116496574,0.3706331476,0.3372367613,0.9331343204,0.6814341656,0.5026322375,1.1479851264,0.5026322375,2.8198686088,3.0482376442 -restaurant,0.2820261405,0.282683528,0.2808265082,0.2932229182,0.286941911,0.2874369433,0.2874369433,0.3121784735,0.2987534022,0.3174475777,0.4313426382,0.3228884373,0.4263793897,0.7194392994000001,0.7547545082 -rohlik_orders_1D,0.0453576139,0.046778087,0.0473405217,0.0531957347,0.0585028628,0.0454924381,0.0495487283,0.0570594271,0.0551848097,0.0603755941,0.0637016666,0.0607226711,0.0730389024,0.1384185633,0.141017357 -rohlik_orders_1W,0.0419834037,0.0425926735,0.0430425121,0.0489199152,0.049953361,0.0500948995,0.047050427,0.0608989622,0.0465205009,0.0471291762,0.046928104,0.0464560362,0.0498648091,0.0498648091,0.0497673655 -rohlik_sales_1D,0.2203668339,0.3154378947,0.2983877224,0.3351760018,0.3727953997,0.3202051989,0.3139840107,0.3250144355,0.3425447103,0.3459201995,0.3543382966,0.3563233504,0.3727953997,0.4099413728,0.4141182186 -rohlik_sales_1W,0.1860678419,0.2252347071,0.2196835891,0.2348251568,0.1697896851,0.2364913465,0.2336631822,0.2594374504,0.2595910509,0.2670259076,4.0491052559,0.2655509054,0.3323396817,0.3323396817,0.3393924276 -rossmann_1D,0.0954525644,0.1837160416,0.171116383,0.1931728074,0.0772288962,0.1799313223,0.178806336,0.1802362487,0.1969163908,0.1908416644,0.2028079674,0.291009868,0.3139894604,0.93885619,0.9579696488 -rossmann_1W,0.080244381,0.1304017962,0.1350575869,0.1345092339,0.0659741153,0.1342178268,0.1317076013,0.1572071227,0.135127457,0.1410069966,0.1401558708,0.1385267381,0.2508975252,0.2508975252,0.2680805063 -solar_1D,0.1855480723,0.1929553199,0.1938342095,0.1955625549,0.1919496514,0.2003849004,0.1990286403,0.2094179217,0.2041438251,0.2053532934,0.2049319678,0.2116725603,0.2794918566,0.4319792148,0.4569554917 -solar_1W,0.1513635002,0.1885658631,0.1848997811,0.2335483112,0.1459644443,0.2786290198,0.1573930974,0.1567824467,0.2181202588,0.2154878912,0.2063617654,0.2389863753,0.241539109,0.241539109,0.3053960241 -solar_with_weather_15T,0.9550527662,1.2067686983,1.2404817956,0.9998316485,0.9712352474,1.1204703544,1.1300785408,1.3507714502,1.4073798197,1.4073798197,1.9572357231,3.2872524251,1.4073798197,1.6964307303,1.7761051768 -solar_with_weather_1H,0.9780600605,1.2498913502,0.9695951652,1.2191318813,0.7960101453,1.2285296788,1.0189950233,1.3598337832,1.1487515083,1.2702665577,1.3928226357,2.6714879984,1.3170887607,1.3916210721,1.3968565452 -uci_air_quality_1D,0.2146017853,0.2321704936,0.2425060369,0.2553475038,0.239766452,0.2299092189,0.2228595882,0.2497182101,0.2303977966,0.2530270906,0.2425004358,0.2579293608,0.2922307509,0.3990393174,0.4166124807 -uci_air_quality_1H,0.2626699164,0.2890236922,0.2903775779,0.2863033352,0.3066820684,0.3062706804,0.3020104526,0.3368853083,0.5268864008,0.3923535075,20468.2757052641,0.6724046824000001,0.460867968,0.8360828268,0.8759093056 -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,0.0161921461,0.0138342964,0.0153292336,0.0125938684,0.0316628726,0.0145084122,0.0190395107,0.0397848581,0.0188346391,0.0173381483,0.0163459748,0.0435228041,0.0616683882,0.0540829702,0.0420838658 -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,0.3207938336,0.3109536889,0.3156210831,0.2838323856,0.3652919167,0.295667223,0.3374595917,0.3704647201,0.6131520742000001,0.6717556157,0.7010568349,0.6249699219,0.7590347607,0.6807093543,0.6959726061 -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,0.0231629073,0.0306531397,0.0334625898,0.0259156466,0.0313019374,0.0235252689,0.0308278174,0.0470469389,0.0198408228,0.0621980203,0.0195175599,0.0457146098,0.0708838512,0.0708838512,0.0450304907 -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,0.5773892559,0.5056475261,0.3916377081,0.5874941513,0.5181874025000001,0.4243048101,0.4123778016,0.346954435,0.4963902021,0.7570660296,0.4600308825,0.4631006396,0.4524501242,0.4524501242,0.4739863292 -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,0.3910187444,0.3797951228,0.3533112754,0.4097196009,0.3768120784,0.3538288145,0.3616969038,0.3594274377,0.5001590872,0.6134348659000001,0.5094112038,0.476165342,0.4420318364,0.5157896779,0.5265475783 -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,0.171083851,0.2003527874,0.1901138083,0.1555521636,0.16972636,0.195409151,0.1670758111,0.2660261673,0.138335546,0.1351972799,0.1685579648,0.186827715,0.2340614394,0.2340614394,0.1835390955 -us_consumption_1M,0.0197271574,0.0197402218,0.0226701155,0.0205041485,0.0243746544,0.0218430056,0.0218589731,0.032429082,0.0214320964,0.0239150894,0.0201648123,0.0272716281,0.0497079002,0.032661543,0.0266511556 -us_consumption_1Q,0.0274404827,0.0279758108,0.026686332,0.0270793373,0.039451329,0.0274257255,0.0277102453,0.050684032,0.0294259535,0.030008464,0.0292799577,0.0412327495,0.0619774434,0.0509220091,0.0386050624 -us_consumption_1Y,0.0498855623,0.0438966964,0.0465564099,0.0546159459,0.0536317719,0.0851402532,0.0656167649,0.0997271328,0.0515666785,0.0428692104,0.0592817405,0.0967727372,0.1514273794,0.1514273794,0.0943820837 -walmart,0.0739271753,0.0849769317,0.0803039051,0.113539905,0.0751515146,0.1057545178,0.0950021434,0.1036346439,0.1643578174,0.1319843981,119300400139.46916,0.1996789224,0.3075011099,0.3075011099,0.3407542314 -world_co2_emissions,0.0729773107,0.0707450544,0.0751862129,0.0712556895,0.0717195922,0.076153015,0.0727688426,0.0955702861,0.0701479592,0.0705282623,0.0887646329,0.0742405541,0.0832284265,0.0832284265,0.073077502 -world_life_expectancy,0.0095948732,0.0089847076,0.0097525655,0.0120911181,0.0093362704,0.0144690768,0.0108645301,0.0129798805,0.010866463,0.0112841979,0.0107918452,0.0118279018,0.0143077928,0.0143077928,0.0130987043 -world_tourism,0.0908975711,0.0849997606,0.0984825726,0.0868200211,0.0601786476,0.0894951758,0.0889419278,0.1403522964,0.0552036802,0.0578924108,0.0724923711,0.0479228397,0.0866853455,0.0866853455,0.0439170643 +Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,DeepAR,Stat. 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Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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-redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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Ensemble,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc12,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc14,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc17,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False +redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False +restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv b/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv index 7531fb0ed79d9411c997316ec05ecb01a15689d2..703e8de5adc09002b1287e5f04d7ce4d49de0b36 100644 --- a/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv +++ b/tables/pivot_WQL_leakage_imputed.csv @@ -1,101 +1,101 @@ -Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,Sundial-Base,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift -ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -M_DENSE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_15T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -SZ_TAXI_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -australian_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -bizitobs_l2c_5T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1062,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1209,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1225,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1230,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1282,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1487,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1631,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1676,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1855,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_1975,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_2187,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_285,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_619,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_772,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -boomlet_963,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ecdc_ili,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -entsoe_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_be,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_de,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_fr,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_np,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -epf_pjm,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -ercot_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_stores_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1D,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1D,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -m5_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc12,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc14,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -proenfo_gfc17,False,False,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -solar_with_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uci_air_quality_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False -world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +Task name,Chronos-2,TiRex,TimesFM-2.5,FlowState,Toto-1.0,TabPFN-TS,Moirai-2.0,Chronos-Bolt,TFT,Sundial-Base,PatchTST,DeepAR,Stat. Ensemble,AutoARIMA,CatBoost,LightGBM,AutoETS,AutoTheta,Seasonal Naive,Naive,Drift +ETT_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +ETT_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+favorita_transactions_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/cee,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_md_2025/macro,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/cee,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +fred_qd_2025/macro,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +gvar,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hermes,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hierarchical_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +hospital_admissions_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_10T,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +jena_weather_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_10T,False,True,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +kdd_cup_2022_30T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1D,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +m5_1W,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc12,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc14,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +proenfo_gfc17,False,False,True,True,True,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_15T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_1H,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +redset_5T,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +restaurant,False,False,False,False,False,False,True,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_orders_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rohlik_sales_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1D,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +rossmann_1W,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False 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+uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_nation_1W/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1D/new,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1M,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Q,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +us_consumption_1Y,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +walmart,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_co2_emissions,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_life_expectancy,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False +world_tourism,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False,False diff --git a/tables/summaries.csv b/tables/summaries.csv index b7c63090eef735ed2c25d52ad7b12f2fa62b2a55..f24f1a26522e396a765c8e98e3793504a4dc6381 100644 --- a/tables/summaries.csv +++ b/tables/summaries.csv @@ -1,1475 +1,2086 @@ -model_name,dataset_path,dataset_config,horizon,num_windows,initial_cutoff,window_step_size,min_context_length,max_context_length,seasonality,eval_metric,extra_metrics,quantile_levels,id_column,timestamp_column,target,generate_univariate_targets_from,known_dynamic_columns,past_dynamic_columns,static_columns,task_name,test_error,training_time_s,inference_time_s,dataset_fingerprint,trained_on_this_dataset,fev_version,SQL,MASE,WAPE,WQL,framework_version,device_map,torch_dtype,num_forecasts -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2587593653,0.0,94.30531113,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2587593653,1.4311893424,0.3554786793,0.3320927513,2.0.1,,,280 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,1.052404926,0.0,4252.341582475,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,1.052404926,1.2616150196,0.2729976766,0.2275419988,2.0.1,,,280 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4423112635,0.0,3.075158716,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.4423112635,2.7471493707,0.5033163548,0.4761461158,2.0.1,,,70 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8099517857,0.0,690.761802885,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8099517857,0.9888675362,0.0375884525,0.0306907047,2.0.1,,,3230 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,1.0012742792,0.0,201.616476622,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,1.0012742792,0.9670797236,0.1080897018,0.1111745205,2.0.1,,,3230 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.9701754768,0.0,191.520785417,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.9701754768,1.168959753,0.1260855269,0.1051447846,2.0.1,,,300 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,1.0625833478,0.0,2922.979243606,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,1.0625833478,1.1833753219,0.2454276025,0.2211301613,2.0.1,,,300 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.6584161139,0.0,874.88661334,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.6584161139,0.6365009349,0.2079726383,0.2187159408,2.0.1,,,312 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.8009680433,0.0,6.64264725,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.8009680433,1.0124394981,0.1101633608,0.0866216851,2.0.1,,,178 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.6185436377,0.0,2104.226476309,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.6185436377,0.7748607972,1.7735276449,1.4044947577,2.0.1,,,140 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 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'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,1.1085996591,0.0,182.019183642,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,1.1085996591,1.0378800323,0.4278108916,0.4535022053,2.0.1,,,1060 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.5544648012,0.0,118.751464044,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.5544648012,0.7170247042,0.5880218188,0.4527380943,2.0.1,,,1040 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.980742171,0.0,19242.071616258,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.980742171,1.2299298482,0.090934383,0.0731621073,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.0560628345,0.0,1342.527721244,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.0560628345,1.0947820348,0.1986222906,0.1868416274,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.1754444345,0.0,3916.512700563,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.1754444345,1.4621684481,0.0749658542,0.0597358018,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7879913849,0.0,42.660384593,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.7879913849,0.9971198091,0.0493777886,0.0388325707,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.089948711,0.0,29.921444681,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.089948711,2.6323348127,0.1429765524,0.1129826874,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.2216416053,0.0,17195.284497683,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.2216416053,1.4187797295,0.1934442326,0.1647292421,2.0.1,,,15790 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0381596319,0.0,115.500663902,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,2.0381596319,2.207495882,0.1385348588,0.1314480379,2.0.1,,,3158 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.2969051079,0.0,536.836586719,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.2969051079,2.580066785,0.1500959687,0.1331314369,2.0.1,,,15790 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.562168577,0.0,736.01180423,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.562168577,1.7409399844,0.1204928338,0.1055051904,2.0.1,,,510 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,1.2129200308,0.0,312.872378212,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,1.2129200308,1.5317415273,0.0063903024,0.0050407278,2.0.1,,,10000 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.6445167344,0.0,1228.374473327,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.6445167344,0.7735716427,0.80726372,0.6915383974,2.0.1,,,1180 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7472607405,0.0,35.817762028,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.7472607405,0.9125112599,0.5603942513,0.4672185482,2.0.1,,,1180 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.7310321414000001,0.0,148.071234637,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.7310321414000001,0.9191221959,0.1056054849,0.0845424144,2.0.1,,,3068 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5556445831,0.0,48.648875075,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5556445831,0.7209334531,0.5348244904,0.4121681663,2.0.1,,,160 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.947126445,0.0,1781.279978721,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.947126445,1.1681324943,0.0571345754,0.0464290142,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.1149783841,0.0,3695.573905165,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.1149783841,1.3821477017,0.0943354612,0.0761960672,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.8772582072,0.0,10543.767496636,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.8772582072,1.8532418262,0.3273749292,0.347358315,2.0.1,,,1380 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0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.2661753782,0.0,66.487592684,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.2661753782,1.5623634243,0.0740682058,0.0603755941,2.0.1,,,35 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4146777164,0.0,2.656755436,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4146777164,1.7324467216,0.0584325351,0.0471291762,2.0.1,,,35 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,12.6543213595,0.0,4.17761105,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,12.6543213595,13.5408520302,0.7762918919,0.7570660296,2.0.1,,,48 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,7.407131023,0.0,2769.024997587,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,7.407131023,8.1828726428,0.6831767932,0.6134348659000001,2.0.1,,,2140 -AutoARIMA,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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{'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.9135627329,0.0,11.723102549,de65600e18e27fe8,False,0.7.0,0.9135627329,0.6889630667000001,0.4705070178,0.62613098,2.0.1,,,700 -AutoETS,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 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0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,1.204414213,0.0,44.147499066,ca3cf5b18a145f72,False,0.7.0,1.204414213,0.7479719187,0.2310231853,0.2591897672,2.0.1,,,1040 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 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'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,1.4390517121,0.0,49.752985414,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,1.4390517121,0.6163309557000001,0.2834336899,0.5422949313000001,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.4536844039,0.0,17.082664727,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.4536844039,1.1004605986,0.5049570994,0.716591367,2.0.1,,,560 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.8437922843,0.0,3.597034584,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.8437922843,4.2528905756,0.5694230199,0.5760490118,2.0.1,,,240 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.5794334285,0.0,8.175039881,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.5794334285,0.7298063048,0.0539835229,0.04302748,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.9723015525,0.0,9.86522695,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.9723015525,1.1626008244,0.0836396273,0.0693891454,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.7996836131,0.0,8.773509415,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.7996836131,1.0040370692,0.0721444593,0.0571609073,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.4843337008000002,0.0,4.052144202,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.4843337008000002,1.0193650689,0.1881915066,0.2582438044,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.4943830235,0.0,1.4522195,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.4943830235,1.407198376,0.6459928796000001,0.6490481061000001,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.5911735884,0.0,4.241378194,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,1.5911735884,0.8447495724,0.1293735383,0.2296495476,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.2812041765,0.0,1.410720192,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,1.2812041765,1.514020593,0.0688152587,0.0578512541,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.6031844165,0.0,1.430002319,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.6031844165,0.6832480189,0.1198625589,0.1068456977,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.4186958416,0.0,9.469445659,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,1.4186958416,1.5801931826,0.1169790924,0.1055339552,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.2749705934,0.0,8.370239174,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.2749705934,1.5835893744,0.081462577,0.0646341807,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.9653005355,0.0,3.713059389,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.9653005355,1.2051001185,0.0593784221,0.0470765052,2.0.1,,,120 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.1282361494,0.0,11.984929096,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.1282361494,2.66207578,0.1458645716,0.1163159858,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.2731528133,0.0,784.588849778,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.2731528133,1.3758675565,0.1834860831,0.1778642628,2.0.1,,,15790 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.9416452953,0.0,3.06092775,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,1.9416452953,2.1335008012,0.1535032243,0.1244588255,2.0.1,,,3158 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.3159830026,0.0,43.819227892,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.3159830026,2.4768022229,0.1443628684,0.1407957933,2.0.1,,,15790 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1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,6.0124726904,0.0,16.490719562,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,6.0124726904,6.7085954414,0.086868012,0.0815239103,2.0.1,,,1020 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.7782845321,0.0,35.127702792,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.7782845321,0.8117980851000001,2.1184663236,2.5543058657,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7391822834,0.0,10.131362893,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7391822834,0.9764039863,0.8038047969000001,0.5966451508,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.7653501983000001,0.0,27.150303236,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.7653501983000001,0.8416018012,2.3053818822,2.5972049691,2.0.1,,,1340 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.8721490279,0.0,763.6272551,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,0.8721490279,1.0805686532,0.7779017687,0.6265285781000001,2.0.1,,,30490 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0987392502,0.0,19.650036874,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0987392502,1.2589934317,0.491009295,0.4195249159,2.0.1,,,29364 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9633961601,0.0,85.610458824,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9633961601,1.1697733846,0.4475453794,0.3767071031,2.0.1,,,30490 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.414921573,0.0,6.908236052,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,1.414921573,1.5236522096,0.1359507203,0.1250899583,2.0.1,,,110 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,1.0554823676,0.0,1.681859291,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,1.0554823676,1.185656643,0.0579787859,0.0519159577,2.0.1,,,20 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.1469535851,0.0,7.015415077,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.1469535851,1.3687323787,0.0931363594,0.0769725348,2.0.1,,,160 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,10.1219214394,0.0,84.653734861,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,10.1219214394,1.597597259,0.4040436536,0.940375013,2.0.1,,,1260 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,4.0716886989,0.0,91.903643195,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,4.0716886989,2.0202444582,0.371760726,0.471399676,2.0.1,,,1380 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,3.3566436475,0.0,69.756080885,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,3.3566436475,2.3397807513,0.6252421260000001,1.1479851264,2.0.1,,,1180 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.7607880054,0.0,32.034104421,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.7607880054,0.9184892419,0.3923323192,0.3228884373,2.0.1,,,6502 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.3973344823,0.0,11.789316734,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.3973344823,1.5185276042,0.0664489299,0.0607226711,2.0.1,,,35 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.3962994461,0.0,1.224844024,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.3962994461,1.7121743288,0.0573223703,0.0464560362,2.0.1,,,35 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0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.6547436183,0.0,9.744953536,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.6547436183,1.8363584706,0.294593662,0.2655509054,2.0.1,,,3942 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6785205054,0.0,8.802713676,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6785205054,0.8376174094000001,0.2619624853,0.2116725603,2.0.1,,,1370 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.4256110648,0.0,0.411495805,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.4256110648,2.0936290706,0.3495942652,0.2389863753,2.0.1,,,137 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 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'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,5.097376861,0.0,1.015615217,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.097376861,5.7016692031,0.0519616026,0.0457146098,2.0.1,,,48 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.1818506739,0.0,1.093406847,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.1818506739,5.813977235,0.4545178637,0.4631006396,2.0.1,,,48 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,5.0552633527,0.0,28.541335111,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,5.0552633527,5.820038846,0.5472069114,0.476165342,2.0.1,,,2140 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,20.1018108531,0.0,2.416687945,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,20.1018108531,21.4127050868,0.2025926664,0.186827715,2.0.1,,,1070 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.704219721,0.0,11.185354677,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.704219721,1.9291138764,0.0304996581,0.0272716281,2.0.1,,,310 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,2.3452449672,0.0,4.407387248,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,2.3452449672,2.6435650081,0.0455343083,0.0412327495,2.0.1,,,310 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,5.0841302662,0.0,3.5995976130000003,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,5.0841302662,5.619694319,0.1074392479,0.0967727372,2.0.1,,,310 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,1.4674936934,0.0,8.494516131,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,1.4674936934,1.4178781632000002,0.1852148771,0.1996789224,2.0.1,,,2936 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.8254620295,0.0,4.029324262,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.8254620295,3.2294516112,0.0831107938,0.0742405541,2.0.1,,,1719 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.4512016278,0.0,4.704021132,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.4512016278,1.7124546782,0.0137058759,0.0118279018,2.0.1,,,2370 -AutoTheta,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.5742928529,0.0,0.9003165280000001,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,2.5742928529,2.9312038042,0.0556104314,0.0479228397,2.0.1,,,356 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.5458017173,0.0,3.586513707,8cb2ab653e6a502b,False,0.7.0,0.5458017173,0.6948579833,0.1128598566,0.088140917,,cuda,float32,280 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.1315469549,0.0,0.7686183270000001,087e55aa2b87745b,False,0.7.0,1.1315469549,1.3413765406,0.3210531483,0.2599714581,,cuda,float32,280 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.8829665685,0.0,3.594042647,305bfc1cf6779b47,False,0.7.0,0.8829665685,1.1259593459,0.2467289659,0.1929432618,,cuda,float32,280 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.3200722308,0.0,0.413536269,f285b410fbbb9427,False,0.7.0,2.3200722308,2.6985268972,0.5228870836,0.4180629794,,cuda,float32,70 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7791980564000001,0.0,1.931354007,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.7791980564000001,0.9599506578,0.0363369958,0.0294338099,,cuda,float32,3230 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6390561899,0.0,37.031710666,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.6390561899,0.7939256021000001,0.0681990332,0.0547949407,,cuda,float32,3230 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5325340237,0.0,40.187540223,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.5325340237,0.6812013944,0.0736883423,0.0574848175,,cuda,float32,3230 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.6463243558,0.0,0.554261577,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.6463243558,0.7721472947,0.083318119,0.0712116931,,cuda,float32,300 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.5854558830000001,0.0,3.7869341,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.5854558830000001,0.7132003566,0.1462710002,0.1198308475,,cuda,float32,300 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3932968835,0.0,5.6139798370000005,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.3932968835,0.4999875762,0.2391328625,0.1878149403,,cuda,float32,1560 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.3977234578,0.0,0.548545775,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.3977234578,0.4878765611,0.1627460048,0.1329118955,,cuda,float32,312 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.4108408982,0.0,2.052028418,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.4108408982,0.5169197944,0.4957355787,0.3972980474,,cuda,float32,140 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.5523284751,0.0,5.359940552,850914278ff7292f,False,0.7.0,0.5523284751,0.6776940987,0.5680818423,0.4575715706,,cuda,float32,420 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'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,0.6799099954000001,0.0,12.842733295,fc732419f4257b0c,False,0.7.0,0.6799099954000001,0.7987706683,0.3048900987,0.2624618736,,cuda,float32,1060 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.1864128972,0.0,11.52890638,e054f8c6bf020ac0,False,0.7.0,0.1864128972,0.2322508868,0.1220172782,0.0982049927,,cuda,float32,980 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,1.201031991,0.0,5.809436434,c41ee8e342ded50d,False,0.7.0,1.201031991,1.3704917157,0.3054680901,0.2619779044,,cuda,float32,460 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.4211360586,0.0,8.253764181,b18492522498bc96,False,0.7.0,0.4211360586,0.5228616907,0.3551724804,0.285764271,,cuda,float32,700 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.4233194118,0.0,13.181763645,6e70705aa0d5c9b6,False,0.7.0,0.4233194118,0.5106600397000001,0.2009541891,0.1664420374,,cuda,float32,1080 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1631,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1631,0.5718706997,0.0,9.49591573,79eaf83557e2eeb4,False,0.7.0,0.5718706997,0.7130379666000001,0.3118222283,0.2500221983,,cuda,float32,800 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1676,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1676,0.5686748679,0.0,23.708879005,083dfc140fd4b463,False,0.7.0,0.5686748679,0.7074172167,0.3237391089,0.2538630455,,cuda,float32,2000 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,0.4615736804,0.0,7.179643713,3b655e92786b24dc,False,0.7.0,0.4615736804,0.5381849547,0.1587321378,0.1371847144,,cuda,float32,1040 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.1333320334,0.0,10.208273635,6e1d9424c5ab2214,False,0.7.0,0.1333320334,0.1607432077,0.0905538287,0.0754861445,,cuda,float32,1500 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 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{'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,0.7165952965,0.0,6.770158875,078a1fcb7a454b72,False,0.7.0,0.7165952965,0.8390323132,0.3817032517,0.3166849574,,cuda,float32,560 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,2.2713937157,0.0,0.50251728,c812e2dbfb11b987,False,0.7.0,2.2713937157,2.7551221016,0.3759767271,0.3096012701,,cuda,float32,240 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.4539692649,0.0,6.155504059,4e80c208c8b54e76,False,0.7.0,0.4539692649,0.5846139379,0.04219648,0.0332921944,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.4292730862,0.0,5.979634896,a900217b9207dc1a,False,0.7.0,0.4292730862,0.5379602554,0.0329469333,0.0261903902,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.4335549531,0.0,5.944519921,7a3623a47fa39853,False,0.7.0,0.4335549531,0.54381558,0.0367303018,0.0290675118,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.5032959121,0.0,1.082599386,fef9300bbbbc0b06,False,0.7.0,0.5032959121,0.6470253268,0.115556011,0.0901568527,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,0.491116807,0.0,1.081831324,b0b822e47c7608d3,False,0.7.0,0.491116807,0.6042262072,0.291016907,0.2407177006,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,0.3617711398,0.0,1.083441916,8f5f11f4c654e31f,False,0.7.0,0.3617711398,0.4500649094,0.0680296275,0.0548184758,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,0.6581144952,0.0,1.087317323,269b47960e0cd2ad,False,0.7.0,0.6581144952,0.8501928867,0.0381853723,0.0297236562,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.3815757864,0.0,1.082211405,7087b94a370e1baa,False,0.7.0,0.3815757864,0.4718977319,0.0821098361,0.0667749027,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,0.8691910278,0.0,1.732711958,2d6981ffddeb4d36,False,0.7.0,0.8691910278,1.1382701719,0.0765202672,0.059742223,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.0291210659,0.0,2.206284104,ea7c064764004599,False,0.7.0,1.0291210659,1.3575339606,0.0691227315,0.0517757176,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7549419478,0.0,0.655916752,3b442c044564a810,False,0.7.0,0.7549419478,0.9503422041,0.0474946219,0.0374032877,,cuda,float32,120 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,0.9664287997,0.0,0.763102481,17d56f9cde303936,False,0.7.0,0.9664287997,1.2194616983,0.0589590463,0.0461530362,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,0.9164120516,0.0,214.025029556,7c6ded4c862d08bd,False,0.7.0,0.9164120516,1.1401981382,0.1382725313,0.1111436042,,cuda,float32,15790 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.7943754897000002,0.0,2.739730499,90adf27f0175f9ae,False,0.7.0,1.7943754897000002,1.9751999633,0.1303168371,0.1214689688,,cuda,float32,3158 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.0241017868,0.0,17.016479843,1cf7145738b8996c,False,0.7.0,2.0241017868,2.2987283752,0.1289288979,0.1088586482,,cuda,float32,15790 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,0.684612804,0.0,6.027698108,93e47f4edb5bcbe1,False,0.7.0,0.684612804,0.8493705653,0.0611646173,0.0493905059,,cuda,float32,510 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,0.9426020865,0.0,0.39258552,6f7b1122146e5d93,False,0.7.0,0.9426020865,1.2531106718,0.0719262234,0.0604582892,,cuda,float32,102 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.2279251974,0.0,0.887638111,19b5577b63233e9d,False,0.7.0,1.2279251974,1.498824744,0.0562127232,0.0471234517,,cuda,float32,510 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.4681773516,0.0,0.750086279,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,3.4681773516,4.1602404727,0.0808948604,0.0668234172,,cuda,float32,60 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.6801712856,0.0,1.282049092,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,5.6801712856,6.7212231389,0.0797789855,0.0658449,,cuda,float32,1020 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,2.1919917498,0.0,0.741199512,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,2.1919917498,2.7861575553,0.1657290639,0.13493629,,cuda,float32,60 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.5367304504,0.0,0.7202757230000001,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,3.5367304504,4.2345766276,0.1070199647,0.0877492891,,cuda,float32,1020 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5781460056000001,0.0,1.129419703,f9353d7e5df197ee,False,0.7.0,0.5781460056000001,0.7105251308,0.0184834703,0.0149820687,,cuda,float32,1980 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,0.6092189134,0.0,10.230260577,e1d9809dc251e19b,False,0.7.0,0.6092189134,0.7761148416,0.0028845992,0.00225818,,cuda,float32,10000 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5567377231,0.0,3.063961534,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.5567377231,0.6889480283,0.7004947938,0.5714809959,,cuda,float32,1180 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6161304379,0.0,0.904692556,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.6161304379,0.7539268543000001,0.4327760933,0.3648561995,,cuda,float32,1180 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6860471169,0.0,1.182085063,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6860471169,0.8734575212000001,0.0955333467,0.0748078224,,cuda,float32,3068 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5544475609,0.0,0.7830635300000001,88f43f9f6a96b4f3,False,0.7.0,0.5544475609,0.7170504383,0.5318945219,0.4112482571,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5763906233,0.0,0.6688935810000001,70ba34804e0de04d,False,0.7.0,0.5763906233,0.7508052527,0.2115394616,0.1624167729,,cuda,float32,128 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.3543287448,0.0,5.334178071,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.3543287448,0.4309090154,0.2751553475,0.2528507588,,cuda,float32,420 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.1112540398,0.0,0.505430483,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.1112540398,1.4035573159,0.2763651402,0.2257062563,,cuda,float32,231 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.3530166989,0.0,5.231668932,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.3530166989,0.4373910122,0.2537129335,0.2250019598,,cuda,float32,420 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.4250790923,0.0,164.082725564,571bae673e4dccdd,False,0.7.0,0.4250790923,0.5199208546,1.3604878279,1.2012688912,,cuda,float32,1340 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.703502155,0.0,4.819452862,739c6625d30e6169,False,0.7.0,0.703502155,0.8993091785,0.7152167839,0.5599962195,,cuda,float32,1340 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.4388772718,0.0,161.575712623,bf18bd35bb0df915,False,0.7.0,0.4388772718,0.5419430891,1.5203947999,1.3117733464,,cuda,float32,1340 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.7216368132000001,0.0,1335.075510276,f11a35ff7f7adf0e,False,0.7.0,0.7216368132000001,0.8798761359,0.7030550556,0.5553520672,,cuda,float32,30490 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,0.9769838168,0.0,61.000184285,5d40840afc423bdf,False,0.7.0,0.9769838168,1.1638225815,0.4288781907,0.3477280433,,cuda,float32,29364 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9001918553,0.0,123.784906545,8d7cc2396f52bcbc,False,0.7.0,0.9001918553,1.1400355515,0.4283166904,0.3375480209,,cuda,float32,30490 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.6485047492,0.0,2.905235514,7c9ee0786e7de9fc,False,0.7.0,0.6485047492,0.8120010668000001,0.069590554,0.0555966972,,cuda,float32,110 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.4301437324,0.0,0.856846694,eb4b54a1ec3114bf,False,0.7.0,0.4301437324,0.5386864242,0.0263798704,0.0210605929,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.4848892231,0.0,3.996093108,2c63b48ca8f6dd9a,False,0.7.0,0.4848892231,0.6103924746,0.0395739348,0.0315349159,,cuda,float32,160 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,0.7901010349,0.0,15.017539039,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,0.7901010349,0.9320904759,0.2581138326,0.2174028756,,cuda,float32,1260 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.3653252295,0.0,4.239772629,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.3653252295,1.5030009285,0.2086091326,0.1754538486,,cuda,float32,1380 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,0.6541973572,0.0,14.613528496,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,0.6541973572,0.7864618392,0.329381554,0.2706931879,,cuda,float32,1180 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.6853328207,0.0,4.713149695,cc84996f184fc2f6,False,0.7.0,0.6853328207,0.8599090122,0.3583806779,0.2820261405,,cuda,float32,6502 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,0.9592108487,0.0,0.945095816,1774b84125cff789,False,0.7.0,0.9592108487,1.1869082024,0.0560522973,0.0453576139,,cuda,float32,35 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.2996633839,0.0,0.390706689,bbb0372c6d5883ab,False,0.7.0,1.2996633839,1.5470873451,0.0503461548,0.0419834037,,cuda,float32,35 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,0.8807894575,0.0,103.754533615,c475daf9af96ed16,False,0.7.0,0.8807894575,1.1015615422,0.2762769232,0.2203668339,,cuda,float32,4116 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.2741411479,0.0,20.656814622,09041d7a8a29c83f,False,0.7.0,1.2741411479,1.559672095,0.2291194974,0.1860678419,,cuda,float32,3942 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.2834680757,0.0,99.619566863,29ae5d8fec87a1fd,False,0.7.0,0.2834680757,0.3557646389,0.1197795045,0.0954525644,,cuda,float32,11150 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.3076934923,0.0,13.481720119,cfc14443664745b2,False,0.7.0,0.3076934923,0.3711869984,0.0964419945,0.080244381,,cuda,float32,8920 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.5935714274,0.0,0.97042449,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.5935714274,0.7564704559000001,0.2379390135,0.1855480723,,cuda,float32,1370 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.8952785596,0.0,0.300121023,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.8952785596,1.1789596563,0.200119924,0.1513635002,,cuda,float32,137 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,0.6769263050000001,0.0,2.718968781,0b6d5a3c52af6282,False,0.7.0,0.6769263050000001,0.8640995981,1.1523838522,0.9550527662,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,0.7672846795,0.0,2.670729875,1ae39ff7d1aba62c,False,0.7.0,0.7672846795,1.0201461351,1.2584228755,0.9780600605,,cuda,float32,20 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.0461165946,0.0,0.537146961,2ef57ff0fd03a862,False,0.7.0,1.0461165946,1.3132142732,0.2703591673,0.2146017853,,cuda,float32,44 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,0.7983040373,0.0,1.875038402,031d3ed27aba2c43,False,0.7.0,0.7983040373,1.020596853,0.3364187018,0.2626699164,,cuda,float32,80 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,7.8258561455,0.0,0.810235354,dae0212e3fa73904,False,0.7.0,7.8258561455,9.4466999399,0.0188431325,0.0161921461,,cuda,float32,240 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.0372645497,0.0,0.807997676,dae0212e3fa73904,False,0.7.0,2.0372645497,2.5004449026,0.4026392659,0.3207938336,,cuda,float32,240 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.7834425279,0.0,0.34215162,c1544674699f895d,False,0.7.0,2.7834425279,3.5475305311,0.0279646563,0.0231629073,,cuda,float32,48 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.9682123605,0.0,0.340204376,c1544674699f895d,False,0.7.0,4.9682123605,6.2817282977,0.7566532683,0.5773892559,,cuda,float32,48 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.7252347533,0.0,2.473749394,2f859aada4961893,False,0.7.0,3.7252347533,4.5459837539,0.4765254823,0.3910187444,,cuda,float32,2140 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,17.4422360824,0.0,0.73376937,35d7c01fd444e4fd,False,0.7.0,17.4422360824,19.8762832276,0.1985057108,0.171083851,,cuda,float32,1070 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.4636824416,0.0,0.60786955,03c47cb66fc4f105,False,0.7.0,1.4636824416,1.7363781866,0.0221474791,0.0197271574,,cuda,float32,310 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.7235145142,0.0,0.5001301850000001,91f975812d53dcb0,False,0.7.0,1.7235145142,2.164693101,0.0334895582,0.0274404827,,cuda,float32,310 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,3.7304723943,0.0,0.496727998,941764347d4458f0,False,0.7.0,3.7304723943,4.5651596428,0.0613212118,0.0498855623,,cuda,float32,310 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.6478016424,0.0,9.676043143,c55b4fd4c5773129,False,0.7.0,0.6478016424,0.8167399684000001,0.0933870797,0.0739271753,,cuda,float32,2936 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.6702032562,0.0,0.794476625,e202df7b6b66eec1,False,0.7.0,2.6702032562,3.253441165,0.0894456842,0.0729773107,,cuda,float32,1719 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.186574759,0.0,1.095390946,fa80fb81a8121b97,False,0.7.0,1.186574759,1.4501894619,0.01166582,0.0095948732,,cuda,float32,2370 -Chronos-2,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.0519541233,0.0,0.362146038,0dbaf8acdb03871f,False,0.7.0,3.0519541233,3.7800260773,0.1209655751,0.0908975711,,cuda,float32,356 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.5737369405,0.0,1.543872049,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.5737369405,0.7033446670000001,0.1146202493,0.0933383153,,cuda,bfloat16,280 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.1321824157,0.0,0.966285586,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.1321824157,1.3461045465,0.3275848009,0.2669855109,,cuda,bfloat16,280 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.9435863248,0.0,2.108095705,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.9435863248,1.126722477,0.2464663107,0.2059476241,,cuda,bfloat16,280 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.2795034775,0.0,0.48863731,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.2795034775,2.6260535479,0.4599850744,0.3737931634,,cuda,bfloat16,70 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8051325971000001,0.0,1.011269526,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8051325971000001,0.9859320366,0.0373221384,0.0304002738,,cuda,bfloat16,3230 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7646847805,0.0,10.064288414,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.7646847805,0.9188719391,0.0797934189,0.0662523771,,cuda,bfloat16,3230 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.7101241523,0.0,17.011693471,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.7101241523,0.8058940043,0.0886344958,0.0781392419,,cuda,bfloat16,3230 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.7589658968,0.0,0.645907619,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.7589658968,0.9249126529,0.0985291574,0.0817335467,,cuda,bfloat16,300 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.5952543328000001,0.0,1.56669377,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.5952543328000001,0.7173406545000001,0.1466876373,0.1209575592,,cuda,bfloat16,300 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.413175328,0.0,3.382320696,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.413175328,0.5100343925,0.2437216282,0.197437778,,cuda,bfloat16,1560 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4264135301,0.0,0.608307017,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.4264135301,0.5054399823,0.1713460237,0.1447212932,,cuda,bfloat16,312 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.9282641589,0.0,0.398788738,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.9282641589,1.167418807,0.1434193179,0.1140447009,,cuda,bfloat16,178 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3419873985,0.0,0.901166637,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.3419873985,0.4308821616,0.4081446098,0.3259227696,,cuda,bfloat16,140 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.7570014323,0.0,3.131351941,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.7570014323,0.8001548681,1.3254390534,1.2750077013,,cuda,bfloat16,140 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.6387175665,0.0,3.164868437,44381d6f431f8c90,False,0.7.0,0.6387175665,0.7110111948000001,0.6012691446,0.5409239931000001,,cuda,bfloat16,420 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,0.7840808515000001,0.0,6.646797168,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,0.7840808515000001,0.8460080897000001,0.3271624692,0.301826322,,cuda,bfloat16,1060 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.2030750841,0.0,1.413893608,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.2030750841,0.2540221924,0.1331294786,0.1066372427,,cuda,bfloat16,980 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,1.266108854,0.0,3.154659847,034f57f6576437cc,False,0.7.0,1.266108854,1.347504774,0.3241073897,0.3010213735,,cuda,bfloat16,460 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.461810646,0.0,1.241743579,de65600e18e27fe8,False,0.7.0,0.461810646,0.5646901456,0.3918061855,0.3174313196,,cuda,bfloat16,700 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.4824435432,0.0,6.722739216,17003e37fda85cdd,False,0.7.0,0.4824435432,0.5268262285,0.2074861592,0.190011281,,cuda,bfloat16,1080 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1631,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1631,0.6194052562,0.0,2.239007029,f5255f15ed8188ab,False,0.7.0,0.6194052562,0.7407561889000001,0.3246407648,0.2712471357,,cuda,bfloat16,800 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1676,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1676,0.6076896737,0.0,4.393347816,20768bc9d5e316c5,False,0.7.0,0.6076896737,0.7192465308,0.3288848916,0.2757684538,,cuda,bfloat16,2000 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,0.4695926826,0.0,1.500956744,ca3cf5b18a145f72,False,0.7.0,0.4695926826,0.5502545471,0.1634840172,0.1402605794,,cuda,bfloat16,1040 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.1793929044,0.0,1.921599249,3d8d0f68506b1995,False,0.7.0,0.1793929044,0.2157351982,0.1244086675,0.1030843609,,cuda,bfloat16,1500 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 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'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,0.7746853019000001,0.0,2.369803146,c3fe1a491401b248,False,0.7.0,0.7746853019000001,0.878419842,0.2890647493,0.2524757438,,cuda,bfloat16,2000 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,0.476702899,0.0,1.938218418,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,0.476702899,0.5250469024000001,0.2555644857,0.2234209762,,cuda,bfloat16,1500 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.4708614915,0.0,1.495809546,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.4708614915,0.5940973904,0.4683247317,0.3764453393,,cuda,bfloat16,1040 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,0.3391929948,0.0,1.816961332,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,0.3391929948,0.3956163828,0.1845645847,0.155831971,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,0.7786787266,0.0,1.143769098,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,0.7786787266,0.8956312939000001,0.4316260388,0.3596501239,,cuda,bfloat16,560 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,2.6531174908,0.0,0.662689497,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,2.6531174908,3.1427261211,0.4956143111,0.4167010575,,cuda,bfloat16,240 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.5061680935,0.0,1.5534665360000002,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.5061680935,0.6061735307,0.0428303072,0.0362665583,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.4574194964,0.0,2.115835176,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.4574194964,0.556447549,0.0341011005,0.0281751907,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.5294317223,0.0,1.539316652,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.5294317223,0.6326216104,0.0378308199,0.0321248654,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.573131006,0.0,0.8917097700000001,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,0.573131006,0.7272945434,0.1357350046,0.106932535,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.0208059246,0.0,0.8820109930000001,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.0208059246,1.2655265893,0.5606896855,0.4643713196,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,0.4389128912,0.0,0.893701748,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,0.4389128912,0.5638378752000001,0.0876754681,0.0684544774,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,0.971072301,0.0,0.8944492180000001,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,0.971072301,1.2409440197,0.0566988389,0.0445199614,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.4216993095,0.0,0.8854791940000001,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.4216993095,0.5357283349,0.0937614741,0.0739331273,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,0.9164572277,0.0,0.952127039,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,0.9164572277,1.150459162,0.0793944309,0.0620146905,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.137929015,0.0,2.122735439,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.137929015,1.3914155571,0.0730120171,0.0597259069,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7729483605,0.0,0.810258629,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.7729483605,0.9921791164,0.0511789478,0.0398626935,,cuda,bfloat16,120 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,0.9613116039,0.0,0.958938539,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,0.9613116039,1.2261966297,0.0599824842,0.0467287195,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.0322306624,0.0,11.49569944,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.0322306624,1.2688834676,0.1742722556,0.1418629323,,cuda,bfloat16,15790 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0865003553,0.0,0.737539076,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,2.0865003553,2.4178143615,0.263652347,0.1852146109,,cuda,bfloat16,3158 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.1010925554,0.0,2.535701298,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.1010925554,2.4748929287,0.1579625078,0.1268154753,,cuda,bfloat16,15790 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,0.9750458566,0.0,0.7889856270000001,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,0.9750458566,1.1514968036,0.0873474585,0.0735763953,,cuda,bfloat16,510 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.3584690914,0.0,0.398507047,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.3584690914,1.6365070781000002,0.0940793492,0.0799691906,,cuda,bfloat16,102 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.4283013139,0.0,0.657251684,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.4283013139,1.7479484715,0.0628811317,0.0528246684,,cuda,bfloat16,510 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,4.4904404116,0.0,0.907204166,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,4.4904404116,5.4995170613,0.0893563021,0.0750783838,,cuda,bfloat16,60 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.8417533276,0.0,0.901937345,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,5.8417533276,6.8925263969,0.0832975223,0.0689005701,,cuda,bfloat16,1020 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,2.3654952138,0.0,0.90162255,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,2.3654952138,2.9552801855,0.1553945123,0.1238446163,,cuda,bfloat16,60 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.6544020032,0.0,0.91876078,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,3.6544020032,4.4204306869,0.1074347071,0.0870314598,,cuda,bfloat16,1020 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5962858414000001,0.0,0.643410769,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.5962858414000001,0.7294646076,0.0189676567,0.015482776,,cuda,bfloat16,1980 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,0.6752116267,0.0,1.804798381,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,0.6752116267,0.8579267331,0.003208007,0.0025240351,,cuda,bfloat16,10000 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.550892445,0.0,1.29608468,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.550892445,0.6860304896,0.6949587405000001,0.5634020932,,cuda,bfloat16,1180 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6366963845,0.0,0.657455533,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.6366963845,0.7733116574000001,0.4394375533,0.3762527696,,cuda,bfloat16,1180 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6968021756,0.0,0.692476312,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6968021756,0.8888399515000001,0.0947973169,0.075323756,,cuda,bfloat16,3068 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5561584192,0.0,0.970602409,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5561584192,0.7195191066000001,0.5337376775,0.4125280894,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5868402215,0.0,0.851113914,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,0.5868402215,0.7622844235,0.214606831,0.1652841678,,cuda,bfloat16,128 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.4178230361,0.0,2.005048412,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.4178230361,0.4805248693,0.3021136379,0.2625552838,,cuda,bfloat16,420 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.0749683503,0.0,0.66141865,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.0749683503,1.3722903668,0.2784405042,0.2254046561,,cuda,bfloat16,231 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.3668484878,0.0,0.928959204,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.3668484878,0.4542878163,0.2519024358,0.234099159,,cuda,bfloat16,420 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5333420067,0.0,7.163191594,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.5333420067,0.5903298173,1.5299117744,1.3753457151,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7086991568000001,0.0,0.646101402,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7086991568000001,0.9069594704,0.7228399217,0.5631888802,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5612428382,0.0,3.066107413,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.5612428382,0.6672184767,2.6893893838,2.2656435299,,cuda,bfloat16,1340 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.7292764901000001,0.0,29.235217538,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,0.7292764901000001,0.8851788247,0.7110159993,0.5619946767,,cuda,bfloat16,30490 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0000578921,0.0,4.227121649,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0000578921,1.1852216988,0.4455042779,0.3566383823,,cuda,bfloat16,29364 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9165191908,0.0,5.727823647,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9165191908,1.1647431618,0.4334180355,0.3409590155,,cuda,bfloat16,30490 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.9171920666,0.0,1.187747801,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,0.9171920666,1.0781317629,0.09096132,0.077263494,,cuda,bfloat16,110 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.7673985057,0.0,1.983802673,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.7673985057,0.9285112769,0.0454557415,0.0375513457,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.9004430830000001,0.0,2.076324909,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,0.9004430830000001,1.0977005202,0.0744532838,0.0608284875,,cuda,bfloat16,160 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.2430012316,0.0,2.9116127240000003,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,1.2430012316,1.4783946982,0.3266223073,0.2713077355,,cuda,bfloat16,1260 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,2.2790272339,0.0,1.735903168,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,2.2790272339,2.6712489552000003,0.2425440878,0.2027229088,,cuda,bfloat16,1380 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,1.025913162,0.0,6.368275619,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,1.025913162,1.1699231408,0.4300963342,0.3706331476,,cuda,bfloat16,1180 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.6890372912,0.0,1.855434004,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.6890372912,0.8659689945,0.3649469204,0.2874369433,,cuda,bfloat16,6502 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.0507521562,0.0,0.491051502,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.0507521562,1.3016096527,0.0613666862,0.0495487283,,cuda,bfloat16,35 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4281796145,0.0,0.48565272,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4281796145,1.7219242334,0.0569869973,0.047050427,,cuda,bfloat16,35 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.1471494654,0.0,2.646683124,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.1471494654,1.3870630122,0.3783308864,0.3139840107,,cuda,bfloat16,4116 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.5215966312,0.0,0.8747395630000001,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.5215966312,1.8466635227,0.2846268117,0.2336631822,,cuda,bfloat16,3942 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.5246207313,0.0,3.933845484,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.5246207313,0.6371181918000001,0.2176495418,0.178806336,,cuda,bfloat16,11150 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.4871499621,0.0,1.484309552,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.4871499621,0.6451761650000001,0.1760291811,0.1317076013,,cuda,bfloat16,8920 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6349957556,0.0,0.652727954,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6349957556,0.8068081935,0.2532424137,0.1990286403,,cuda,bfloat16,1370 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.9401913951,0.0,0.364341908,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.9401913951,1.2719881759,0.2132549584,0.1573930974,,cuda,bfloat16,137 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,0.8094202444,0.0,1.421768477,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,0.8094202444,0.9765226278,1.2911253296,1.1300785408,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,0.8156760185,0.0,0.8711168720000001,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,0.8156760185,1.0720382243,1.3260020718,1.0189950233,,cuda,bfloat16,20 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.0919688778,0.0,0.6498258640000001,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.0919688778,1.3886570934,0.2842696743,0.2228595882,,cuda,bfloat16,44 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,0.89902861,0.0,2.04766731,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,0.89902861,1.1161574722,0.3758005321,0.3020104526,,cuda,bfloat16,80 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,8.1573948756,0.0,0.970723595,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,8.1573948756,10.4547608004,0.0245629952,0.0190395107,,cuda,bfloat16,240 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.1221392593,0.0,0.980761858,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.1221392593,2.5913882505,0.4166112363,0.3374595917,,cuda,bfloat16,240 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,3.4351717559,0.0,0.46540572,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,3.4351717559,4.3362420429,0.0386007642,0.0308278174,,cuda,bfloat16,48 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.1483138966,0.0,0.469694134,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,4.1483138966,5.1432817198,0.533506915,0.4123778016,,cuda,bfloat16,48 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.5311824645,0.0,1.02403015,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,3.5311824645,4.2680470788,0.4370788723,0.3616969038,,cuda,bfloat16,2140 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,17.4887255246,0.0,0.5164612150000001,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,17.4887255246,20.0769214614,0.1935101479,0.1670758111,,cuda,bfloat16,1070 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.5162423149,0.0,0.6428216130000001,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.5162423149,1.8462616555,0.025038723,0.0218589731,,cuda,bfloat16,310 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.764175518,0.0,0.647538952,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,1.764175518,2.2129312479,0.0322679118,0.0277102453,,cuda,bfloat16,310 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,4.1076459792,0.0,0.654107224,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,4.1076459792,5.0426493832,0.0879293952,0.0656167649,,cuda,bfloat16,310 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.7740159174,0.0,0.7349396460000001,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,0.7740159174,0.9670980075,0.1172761619,0.0950021434,,cuda,bfloat16,2936 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.7544343248,0.0,0.6173023910000001,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.7544343248,3.3725385277,0.0897831822,0.0727688426,,cuda,bfloat16,1719 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.3452468722,0.0,0.6436036150000001,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.3452468722,1.6264414789,0.0130603154,0.0108645301,,cuda,bfloat16,2370 -Chronos-Bolt,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.1644023349,0.0,0.393471059,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,3.1644023349,3.9050210198,0.1171618253,0.0889419278,,cuda,bfloat16,356 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,1.3649829587,0.0,3.807105844,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,1.3649829587,1.4150881085,0.209491349,0.2108337564,2.0.1,,,280 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.4528881358,0.0,3.194850054,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.4528881358,1.493070532,0.3456173895,0.3621092269,2.0.1,,,280 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,2.4221862813,0.0,3.93487976,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,2.4221862813,1.7823323561,0.3517438181,0.5136644933,2.0.1,,,280 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.63212947,0.0,0.955869301,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.63212947,2.7818783534,0.4451834112,0.4961494694,2.0.1,,,70 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,2.6285047085,0.0,3.739448106,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,2.6285047085,2.373789824,0.0891125299,0.0978699313,2.0.1,,,3230 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,3.7005853436,0.0,3.905283854,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,3.7005853436,1.9650972819,0.1758716479,0.3206568541,2.0.1,,,3230 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,2.0191661844,0.0,4.933765776,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,2.0191661844,1.1722532487,0.130171527,0.210202567,2.0.1,,,3230 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,2.2311998044,0.0,2.228817148,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,2.2311998044,1.7668414689,0.2006916501,0.2363624963,2.0.1,,,300 -Drift,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,4.0939855017,0.0,2.246870346,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,4.0939855017,3.2462087048,0.707449168,0.8946267050000001,2.0.1,,,300 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0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.1696411255,0.0,9.487032912,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.1696411255,1.4020532381,0.3820689023,0.3202051989,2.0.0,,,4116 -Moirai-2.0,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,1.6091505549,0.0,1.62819934,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,1.6091505549,2.0733355971,0.1462993909,0.1142494542,2.0.1,,,120 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,3.0844576332,0.0,0.091158044,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,3.0844576332,1.3609414277,0.237576263,0.5357212884,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,2.6413247553,0.0,2.300341416,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,2.6413247553,3.1089998641,0.1561551619,0.1331050238,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,3.4990135369,0.0,1.43542029,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,3.4990135369,4.4343715733,0.266211768,0.2106942527,2.0.1,,,120 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0789778405,0.0,2.048178636,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.0789778405,2.6319098716,0.1442763271,0.1143459151,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,2.6356836377,0.0,8.201983167,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,2.6356836377,1.8830413748,0.3056042403,0.4079240646,2.0.1,,,15790 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0578284127,0.0,1.10296927,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,2.0578284127,1.9974006051,0.1232989542,0.1701131599,2.0.1,,,3158 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.4938289104,0.0,6.31823167,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.4938289104,2.5171133578,0.1528069191,0.1608274596,2.0.1,,,15790 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,2.7303837473,0.0,2.27175104,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,2.7303837473,1.8618151915,0.1561206006,0.2372471038,2.0.1,,,510 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 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'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,2.1461477983,0.0,1.013904252,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,2.1461477983,1.9945193434,0.0087068714,0.0087083111,2.0.1,,,10000 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,1.5929687017,0.0,2.40696877,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,1.5929687017,1.0417563414,1.0676994622,1.6764214744,2.0.1,,,1180 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,1.3859393726,0.0,2.227905162,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,1.3859393726,1.1617080217,0.7169096172,0.9260072924,2.0.1,,,1180 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,1.0208467827,0.0,1.888925297,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,1.0208467827,1.10504708,0.117495615,0.1042062258,2.0.1,,,3068 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,1.3250699981,0.0,1.927770944,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,1.3250699981,0.9746856833,0.7243229402,0.9837276521,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,1.0492127258,0.0,1.563028813,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,1.0492127258,1.0436412698,0.2933695345,0.2969374559,2.0.1,,,128 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.7693201112,0.0,5.354307458,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.7693201112,0.52703557,0.340848519,3.6828586054,2.0.1,,,420 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,2.1502001657,0.0,2.095606295,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,2.1502001657,1.6994317303000002,0.3843897356,0.6992484433,2.0.1,,,231 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.5788947352,0.0,4.296109526,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.5788947352,0.5374935394,0.328573375,1.6601789319,2.0.1,,,420 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.7544738282,0.0,3.085798529,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.7544738282,0.7815687018,2.0376436353,2.6760920983,2.0.1,,,1340 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,1.1381260567,0.0,2.8824224,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,1.1381260567,1.0306171345,0.8071428537,0.9265198159,2.0.1,,,1340 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.7638793006,0.0,3.104888948,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.7638793006,0.8375670849,2.2917796373,2.5790907336,2.0.1,,,1340 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,1.9603909963,0.0,4.627232796,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,1.9603909963,1.3575007837,1.0240883827,1.352981474,2.0.1,,,30490 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.1923633059,0.0,1.262409723,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.1923633059,1.2671440715,0.4776364863,0.4471596243,2.0.1,,,29364 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,1.3557578931,0.0,2.003347142,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,1.3557578931,1.3382424884,0.5041812062000001,0.5198944018,2.0.1,,,30490 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,2.3796009992,0.0,1.831358357,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,2.3796009992,2.6291046656,0.2325648576,0.2075379042,2.0.1,,,110 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,3.209615645,0.0,0.187320606,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,3.209615645,3.7072504144,0.1831386365,0.158759622,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,2.5749628946,0.0,2.219482583,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,2.5749628946,2.9066491955,0.1911468029,0.1691034077,2.0.1,,,160 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,33.9212721313,0.0,2.623423303,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,33.9212721313,32.0340548113,0.5721419543,1.565727146,2.0.1,,,1260 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,10.5809680586,0.0,2.390281371,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,10.5809680586,8.1555516024,0.4976614714,0.8881015738,2.0.1,,,1380 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,12.0595440026,0.0,2.812905424,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,12.0595440026,3.1480546918,0.6784450889,2.8198686088,2.0.1,,,1180 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,1.6150739536,0.0,3.570183881,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,1.6150739536,1.3993248163,0.612521477,0.7194392994000001,2.0.1,,,6502 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,2.9129738594,0.0,0.5702810650000001,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,2.9129738594,2.4354371077,0.1082820654,0.1384185633,2.0.1,,,35 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4844422646,0.0,0.492512589,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4844422646,1.7311823321,0.058363314,0.0498648091,2.0.1,,,35 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.5460015545,0.0,1.041383701,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.5460015545,1.7485285579,0.4717368782,0.4099413728,2.0.1,,,4116 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.9282179039,0.0,0.724048134,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.9282179039,1.9154827568,0.311866194,0.3323396817,2.0.1,,,3942 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,2.7620723724,0.0,6.364531917,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,2.7620723724,1.6195142378,0.5480500698,0.93885619,2.0.1,,,11150 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.8987958652,0.0,4.514644747,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.8987958652,0.7960291356,0.2192445789,0.2508975252,2.0.1,,,8920 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,1.4067834918,0.0,2.366437612,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,1.4067834918,0.9666968847,0.3013429433,0.4319792148,2.0.1,,,1370 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.4228493197,0.0,0.355450403,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.4228493197,1.9187253475,0.326290369,0.241539109,2.0.1,,,137 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,2.2779930243,0.0,0.148046135,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,2.2779930243,1.989464318,1.0179969072,1.6964307303,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,2.1807435542,0.0,0.093606459,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,2.1807435542,2.2682071361,1.1464484423,1.3916210721,2.0.1,,,20 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.8738938294,0.0,0.6999264470000001,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.8738938294,2.1090746157,0.4314649024,0.3990393174,2.0.1,,,44 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,2.4249545583,0.0,1.375176707,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,2.4249545583,1.681575288,0.5250781342,0.8360828268,2.0.1,,,80 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,23.7425594527,0.0,2.850768888,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,23.7425594527,25.4400086758,0.0579707756,0.0540829702,2.0.1,,,240 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.6919734344,0.0,3.615446347,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.6919734344,2.9050530888,0.453881491,0.6807093543,2.0.1,,,240 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,7.7039519752,0.0,0.787945958,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,7.7039519752,8.7736590065,0.0820604023,0.0708838512,2.0.1,,,48 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.1795349212,0.0,0.949653867,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.1795349212,5.8035952813,0.4544002153,0.4524501242,2.0.1,,,48 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,5.1718851312,0.0,3.129911596,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,5.1718851312,5.9561884523,0.560081014,0.5157896779,2.0.1,,,2140 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,24.6697283453,0.0,1.329679847,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,24.6697283453,26.0772211706,0.2501822181,0.2340614394,2.0.1,,,1070 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.8701116849,0.0,2.388205532,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.8701116849,2.1549055801,0.0367178954,0.032661543,2.0.1,,,310 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,2.5675143796,0.0,2.013581699,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,2.5675143796,2.9276892853,0.0568597171,0.0509220091,2.0.1,,,310 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,6.5846226659,0.0,1.897970893,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,6.5846226659,7.3594854558,0.1702565216,0.1514273794,2.0.1,,,310 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,2.0341238516,0.0,0.6757417280000001,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,2.0341238516,1.5240930953,0.1967352033,0.3075011099,2.0.1,,,2936 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.1550152472,0.0,2.246337684,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,3.1550152472,3.6978220012,0.0984961833,0.0832284265,2.0.1,,,1719 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.8297624985,0.0,3.002757054,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.8297624985,2.2537764593,0.0171300128,0.0143077928,2.0.1,,,2370 -Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.2013302671,0.0,0.626435843,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,3.2013302671,3.8281690603,0.1106580384,0.0866853455,2.0.1,,,356 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.7624529909000001,0.0,3.341111763,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.7624529909000001,0.9168897854,0.1473227948,0.1224205307,2.0.1,,,280 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.3728451389,0.0,3.040735482,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.3728451389,1.4915469632,0.3566862594,0.3642035745,2.0.1,,,280 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,1.2068899431,0.0,4.008998366,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,1.2068899431,1.3227159047,0.286422462,0.2597090183,2.0.1,,,280 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.5092678823,0.0,0.980087587,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.5092678823,2.6201185499,0.3963210046,0.4614224698,2.0.1,,,70 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,1.0461703776,0.0,3.27932411,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,1.0461703776,1.1753801207,0.0445690587,0.0397058571,2.0.1,,,3230 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,1.5008790861,0.0,4.312190361,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,1.5008790861,1.3516779911,0.1172784954,0.1307515175,2.0.1,,,3230 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.7515879948,0.0,4.627586663,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.7515879948,0.8255932621000001,0.0883255631,0.081199984,2.0.1,,,3230 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,1.262653406,0.0,1.980546653,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,1.262653406,1.3500254954,0.1419847511,0.1367572058,2.0.1,,,300 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,1.3040659305,0.0,2.415494719,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,1.3040659305,1.2398526574,0.2611668751,0.2731296131,2.0.1,,,300 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.5602190946,0.0,2.815158399,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.5602190946,0.6992652752,0.3343059897,0.2672484294,2.0.1,,,1560 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.8375139431,0.0,0.620849351,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.8375139431,0.6288121204,0.2122471854,0.2910650923,2.0.1,,,312 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.8947401082,0.0,0.6046954560000001,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.8947401082,1.0994521146,0.1130525246,0.0905870679,2.0.1,,,178 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.8851906828,0.0,1.697552388,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.8851906828,1.0658712657,2.2812914532,2.0969368333,2.0.1,,,140 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.9226397442,0.0,2.251047401,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.9226397442,1.0666676717,2.2837712012,2.2877704895,2.0.1,,,140 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.9105473153,0.0,4.250961928,44381d6f431f8c90,False,0.7.0,0.9105473153,0.9949683457,0.8355847068000001,0.7418110944,2.0.1,,,420 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,1.26373922,0.0,4.216371112,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,1.26373922,1.1827230135,0.4784097772,0.5015055777,2.0.1,,,1060 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.7453858177,0.0,4.525989664,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.7453858177,0.3736491907,0.195260353,0.3809038981,2.0.1,,,980 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,2.0369976474,0.0,4.121118639,034f57f6576437cc,False,0.7.0,2.0369976474,1.8986209303,0.4654206108,0.5006062673,2.0.1,,,460 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,1.5394068156,0.0,4.933665646,de65600e18e27fe8,False,0.7.0,1.5394068156,0.8299194032,0.5673586508,1.0473420209,2.0.1,,,700 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.8422519568,0.0,5.322197063,17003e37fda85cdd,False,0.7.0,0.8422519568,0.7188988334,0.2823812783,0.3287160259,2.0.1,,,1080 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1631,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1631,0.8513712543,0.0,4.979538161,f5255f15ed8188ab,False,0.7.0,0.8513712543,0.9935726652,0.4303123065,0.3678343488,2.0.1,,,800 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1676,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1676,0.8503822276,0.0,4.766137899,20768bc9d5e316c5,False,0.7.0,0.8503822276,0.952905272,0.4490416802,0.3899388202,2.0.1,,,2000 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,1.4642665486,0.0,4.686558257,ca3cf5b18a145f72,False,0.7.0,1.4642665486,0.8339307546,0.255325092,0.3053456375,2.0.1,,,1040 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.8427719263000001,0.0,4.804466949,3d8d0f68506b1995,False,0.7.0,0.8427719263000001,0.9041727794,0.5204730918,0.490065287,2.0.1,,,1500 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,1.6696910974,0.0,5.038808816,c3fe1a491401b248,False,0.7.0,1.6696910974,1.3439772563,0.465180005,0.5699897289,2.0.1,,,2000 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,6.0221504695,0.0,4.392174306,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,6.0221504695,1.2487633378,0.6725665377000001,1.2032068551,2.0.1,,,1500 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,1.2751647052,0.0,4.433855577,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,1.2751647052,1.1235570145,0.9458725577,0.9678549923,2.0.1,,,1040 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,2.4909982911,0.0,4.306524517,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,2.4909982911,0.6290173275000001,0.2919496069,0.9858607218,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.6474289575,0.0,3.975211827,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.6474289575,1.1186074012,0.5169750445,0.811345873,2.0.1,,,560 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.7763740551,0.0,2.253494462,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.7763740551,4.1680850656,0.5534411848,0.5547015104,2.0.1,,,240 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.7806910892000001,0.0,1.7233786800000002,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.7806910892000001,0.9314587074,0.067677392,0.0566124331,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,1.0561195152,0.0,1.938421327,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,1.0561195152,1.1014887222,0.0792450108,0.0798215745,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,1.0103240484,0.0,1.643649582,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,1.0103240484,1.2161814769,0.0870952165,0.0725922166,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.1502802436,0.0,0.089709034,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.1502802436,1.0270532112,0.1840044525,0.2012625857,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.3876764191,0.0,0.090879243,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.3876764191,1.7085955085,0.7489839181,0.5919144005,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.2455233831,0.0,0.093767945,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,1.2455233831,0.8501188428,0.1298259975,0.1818024008,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.5298484821,0.0,0.093990371,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,1.5298484821,1.7613036184,0.0796461385,0.0691889058,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.5152721396000001,0.0,0.089596553,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.5152721396000001,0.581167898,0.1016348289,0.0908421958,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.3382664757,0.0,1.929062194,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,1.3382664757,1.5987746508,0.1245740173,0.1044921679,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.3214751318,0.0,2.549025178,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.3214751318,1.5757631018,0.0818516593,0.0682466944,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.9042858434,0.0,1.374094718,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.9042858434,1.112833491,0.0529377862,0.0427842586,2.0.1,,,120 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0789778405,0.0,1.951122714,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.0789778405,2.6319098716,0.1442763271,0.1143459151,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.6902367853,0.0,8.014557169,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.6902367853,1.7590444116,0.2519854262,0.2375760789,2.0.1,,,15790 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0967115946,0.0,1.237723949,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,2.0967115946,2.2823009488,0.1900056936,0.1715121001,2.0.1,,,3158 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.4938289104,0.0,5.881875331,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.4938289104,2.5171133578,0.1528069191,0.1608274596,2.0.1,,,15790 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.7338216714,0.0,2.183747581,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.7338216714,1.820047183,0.1460640723,0.1403339153,2.0.1,,,510 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.3301725476,0.0,0.520866952,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.3301725476,1.5197338218,0.0907197162,0.0855815678,2.0.1,,,102 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.6714139443,0.0,2.329457246,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.6714139443,1.5401800863,0.0709917221,0.0783787891,2.0.1,,,510 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,9.4371027278,0.0,1.079432671,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,9.4371027278,11.870151993,0.1825383855,0.2073879582,2.0.1,,,60 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,9.5793076258,0.0,4.268570683,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,9.5793076258,11.2729488966,0.1316369599,0.119592083,2.0.1,,,1020 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,4.4448478957,0.0,1.178469139,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,4.4448478957,5.7264703884,0.2083851339,0.194192155,2.0.1,,,60 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,5.2213314727,0.0,4.098124336,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,5.2213314727,6.2532543175,0.1422945023,0.1198022215,2.0.1,,,1020 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.7861696279,0.0,2.922357057,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.7861696279,0.9186013653,0.0239340235,0.0212211567,2.0.1,,,1980 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,2.1461477983,0.0,1.000893807,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,2.1461477983,1.9945193434,0.0087068714,0.0087083111,2.0.1,,,10000 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,1.0291569643,0.0,2.816684551,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,1.0291569643,0.9949475154,1.0205006063,1.1222145629,2.0.1,,,1180 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,1.3859393726,0.0,2.226066589,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,1.3859393726,1.1617080217,0.7169096172,0.9260072924,2.0.1,,,1180 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.8075126003,0.0,1.931947289,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.8075126003,1.0188066511,0.0954293236,0.0783920641,2.0.1,,,3068 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.8571822336,0.0,1.841966382,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.8571822336,1.0268297216,0.7622172844,0.6361459769000001,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,1.0492127258,0.0,1.416196559,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,1.0492127258,1.0436412698,0.2933695345,0.2969374559,2.0.1,,,128 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.6729893352,0.0,3.851353962,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.6729893352,0.7300235109000001,0.7879570897,1.7057621919,2.0.1,,,420 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.7668615982,0.0,2.212954661,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.7668615982,1.8965701168,0.4190868366,0.4719762386,2.0.1,,,231 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.6550438031,0.0,3.491359618,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.6550438031,0.7399001552000001,0.7711870382,1.2878361856,2.0.1,,,420 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.7774995242,0.0,3.552766015,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.7774995242,0.8187009928000001,3.3046866596,3.4658735242,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.9005495243,0.0,2.81435228,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.9005495243,1.0844353298,0.9081870615,0.75069981,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.7740434291,0.0,3.002341458,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.7740434291,0.8221839563000001,3.122066617,3.2580293089,2.0.1,,,1340 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,1.2544668347,0.0,4.828917108,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,1.2544668347,1.2236286692,0.9158941507,0.8588793502000001,2.0.1,,,30490 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.1398593529,0.0,1.232174927,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.1398593529,1.3266370526,0.5107533932,0.4285745193,2.0.1,,,29364 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,1.3557578931,0.0,2.017565551,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,1.3557578931,1.3382424884,0.5041812062000001,0.5198944018,2.0.1,,,30490 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.1997208201,0.0,1.950526799,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,1.1997208201,1.428177457,0.1285183787,0.1088404134,2.0.1,,,110 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,1.0750756438,0.0,0.18898157,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,1.0750756438,1.1988543772,0.0586917939,0.0529491741,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.3160348949,0.0,2.200114127,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.3160348949,1.5845048132,0.1077746021,0.0897222269,2.0.1,,,160 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.2313423811,0.0,2.472600023,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,1.2313423811,1.0323384841,0.3900802583,0.4607365658,2.0.1,,,1260 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.9424894097,0.0,2.38652295,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.9424894097,1.6826194185,0.3300818771,0.4120467256,2.0.1,,,1380 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,1.2243411634,0.0,2.866603317,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,1.2243411634,1.0410587245,0.4487639129,0.5026322375,2.0.1,,,1180 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.9837597907,0.0,3.596593623,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.9837597907,1.1194990361,0.483283326,0.4263793897,2.0.1,,,6502 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.5544219081,0.0,0.528358624,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.5544219081,1.7782872152,0.0827216394,0.0730389024,2.0.1,,,35 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.4844422646,0.0,0.545209501,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.4844422646,1.7311823321,0.058363314,0.0498648091,2.0.1,,,35 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.3749816723,0.0,0.998962432,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.3749816723,1.6150435602000002,0.4345725775,0.3727953997,2.0.1,,,4116 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.9282179039,0.0,0.7413607280000001,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.9282179039,1.9154827568,0.311866194,0.3323396817,2.0.1,,,3942 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.9136725214,0.0,7.323782581,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.9136725214,0.7885548119,0.2692451894,0.3139894604,2.0.1,,,11150 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.8987958652,0.0,4.245679649,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.8987958652,0.7960291356,0.2192445789,0.2508975252,2.0.1,,,8920 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.9019637416,0.0,2.512184478,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.9019637416,0.9900696291,0.3093768284,0.2794918566,2.0.1,,,1370 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.4228493197,0.0,0.345574613,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.4228493197,1.9187253475,0.326290369,0.241539109,2.0.1,,,137 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,1.1937856846,0.0,0.156112923,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,1.1937856846,1.0500997059,1.311486863,1.4073798197,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,1.2119606616,0.0,0.100857583,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,1.2119606616,1.0619359164,1.2338736704,1.3170887607,2.0.1,,,20 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.4013448948,0.0,0.65034532,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.4013448948,1.7337243007,0.3624341339,0.2922307509,2.0.1,,,44 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,1.3840397362,0.0,1.51837345,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,1.3840397362,1.4424742241,0.4562693149,0.460867968,2.0.1,,,80 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,27.0030154455,0.0,2.9943939310000003,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,27.0030154455,30.7671471585,0.0695790831,0.0616683882,2.0.1,,,240 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.5728651106,0.0,3.376844859,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.5728651106,2.8996526561,0.4987584807,0.7590347607,2.0.1,,,240 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,7.7039519752,0.0,0.581385946,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,7.7039519752,8.7736590065,0.0820604023,0.0708838512,2.0.1,,,48 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.1795349212,0.0,0.7883404930000001,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.1795349212,5.8035952813,0.4544002153,0.4524501242,2.0.1,,,48 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,4.5971311302,0.0,3.037979108,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,4.5971311302,5.2400849649,0.5015514418,0.4420318364,2.0.1,,,2140 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,24.6697283453,0.0,1.573106218,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,24.6697283453,26.0772211706,0.2501822181,0.2340614394,2.0.1,,,1070 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,2.6840778381,0.0,2.320112789,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,2.6840778381,3.1370276717,0.0583924714,0.0497079002,2.0.1,,,310 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,3.3237196122,0.0,2.523104623,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,3.3237196122,3.8594112114,0.0723187622,0.0619774434,2.0.1,,,310 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,6.5846226659,0.0,1.972667002,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,6.5846226659,7.3594854558,0.1702565216,0.1514273794,2.0.1,,,310 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,2.0341238516,0.0,0.704313787,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,2.0341238516,1.5240930953,0.1967352033,0.3075011099,2.0.1,,,2936 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.1550152472,0.0,2.410642099,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,3.1550152472,3.6978220012,0.0984961833,0.0832284265,2.0.1,,,1719 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.8297624985,0.0,3.358739425,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.8297624985,2.2537764593,0.0171300128,0.0143077928,2.0.1,,,2370 -Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.2013302671,0.0,0.591032764,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,3.2013302671,3.8281690603,0.1106580384,0.0866853455,2.0.1,,,356 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2707356751,0.0,591.308394604,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2707356751,1.4122431037,0.3275626761,0.3227852613,2.0.1,,,280 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,1.2717102201,0.0,4904.244242552,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,1.2717102201,1.2518551239,0.2621275507,0.2620350459,2.0.1,,,280 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4073690783,0.0,121.813284998,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.4073690783,2.6874358146,0.4587044328,0.4495446321,2.0.1,,,70 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8198461462000001,0.0,1117.570205374,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8198461462000001,0.9983198527,0.0378798334,0.0310410872,2.0.1,,,3230 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,1.0436727136,0.0,708.116609412,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,1.0436727136,0.9579580055,0.1069220781,0.1151931596,2.0.1,,,3230 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.9647884446,0.0,475.398940131,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.9647884446,1.050932514,0.1192791395,0.1131422312,2.0.1,,,300 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,1.1265341106,0.0,3308.933807024,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,1.1265341106,1.1917704339,0.2484246612,0.2346087824,2.0.1,,,300 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.6894973186000001,0.0,906.053197735,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.6894973186000001,0.5582147152,0.1850999221,0.2449234495,2.0.1,,,312 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.7300394505000001,0.0,59.498346012,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.7300394505000001,0.9323052664,0.0957876109,0.0747720206,2.0.1,,,178 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.6336059931,0.0,2581.657258101,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.6336059931,0.7567537453000001,1.3223615305,1.2739406784,2.0.1,,,140 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.7197078839000001,0.0,377.192475263,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.7197078839000001,0.8068916121,1.3437154961,1.5128526941,2.0.1,,,140 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.9851058144,0.0,622.398566754,44381d6f431f8c90,False,0.7.0,0.9851058144,1.0019575039,0.7826401234,0.7822110511,2.0.1,,,420 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,2.4692530935,0.0,826.410131006,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,2.4692530935,1.0454166675,0.4339859435,1.0148176093,2.0.1,,,1060 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.2803755249,0.0,687.830853475,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.2803755249,0.2904167694,0.153843496,0.1451941336,2.0.1,,,980 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,3.3900350214,0.0,626.509165054,034f57f6576437cc,False,0.7.0,3.3900350214,1.5513275237,0.3894998971,0.9994018454,2.0.1,,,460 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.7391125197,0.0,685.096379452,de65600e18e27fe8,False,0.7.0,0.7391125197,0.6397695821,0.4329732117,0.49773322,2.0.1,,,700 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.6807093562000001,0.0,722.394241634,17003e37fda85cdd,False,0.7.0,0.6807093562000001,0.6620511075000001,0.2612758556,0.2664583485,2.0.1,,,1080 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,1.1233499934,0.0,8178.632638533,ca3cf5b18a145f72,False,0.7.0,1.1233499934,0.7137233958,0.2153578225,0.2389634823,2.0.1,,,1040 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.5478588809,0.0,8213.223546339,3d8d0f68506b1995,False,0.7.0,0.5478588809,0.5885200818,0.3327476291,0.3109341662,2.0.1,,,1500 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,1.2729717642,0.0,16619.60447995,c3fe1a491401b248,False,0.7.0,1.2729717642,1.18136692,0.4073318877,0.4312238249,2.0.1,,,2000 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,1.2619335645,0.0,813.907301356,3dfa571029207f1f,False,0.7.0,1.2619335645,0.7526380608000001,0.3599062982,0.3030251372,2.0.1,,,1500 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.7771722948,0.0,768.457542738,2d514811bddfc52d,False,0.7.0,0.7771722948,1.0046773699,0.8714422486000001,0.6585898854000001,2.0.1,,,1040 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,1.1794168073,0.0,815.345085907,66ce5fbc5ad575a2,False,0.7.0,1.1794168073,0.5801758985000001,0.2635364999,0.4436068427,2.0.1,,,1340 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.3348061563,0.0,656.509975032,bd1c23c0fd1a748e,False,0.7.0,1.3348061563,1.1173343797,0.5013279652,0.6331985559000001,2.0.1,,,560 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.8373720704,0.0,281.839308161,0c0a84fa1b54ac63,False,0.7.0,3.8373720704,4.3217227901,0.5675356537,0.5427352164,2.0.1,,,240 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.8919673675,0.0,4486.845290944,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.8919673675,1.1144887827,0.0833389089,0.0660357719,2.0.1,,,120 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.8465224818,0.0,19848.176065065,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.8465224818,1.0577908951,0.0767360015,0.0612238614,2.0.1,,,120 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.2134724304,0.0,1465.778892428,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,1.2134724304,0.9813953164,0.1754423061,0.2109061816,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.1665641061,0.0,1282.873286161,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.1665641061,1.3821017935,0.6023222137,0.4882154408,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.1455989836,0.0,1389.970409861,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,1.1455989836,0.7410301647,0.1133474851,0.1676570118,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.2844205231,0.0,920.482226084,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,1.2844205231,1.514694987,0.0682523511,0.05738593,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.4870679588,0.0,1153.794469074,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.4870679588,0.5294817721,0.0933501931,0.0862614181,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.2548535439,0.0,766.755828996,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,1.2548535439,1.5207401049,0.1129253348,0.0936050684,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.259822515,0.0,4226.398714524,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.259822515,1.610467295,0.0829790251,0.0642267414,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7617082171,0.0,279.902711693,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.7617082171,0.9720301101,0.0481692294,0.0375336712,2.0.1,,,120 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0949542269,0.0,346.234637116,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,2.0949542269,2.6623042168,0.1453860532,0.1138242996,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.1970549978,0.0,19137.806969692,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,1.1970549978,1.3400112075,0.1788716882,0.1606265395,2.0.1,,,15790 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.942621879,0.0,206.213942732,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,1.942621879,2.1181450497,0.1466952749,0.1265354908,2.0.1,,,3158 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.2196008497,0.0,991.292025278,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.2196008497,2.433980351,0.1436039165,0.1336292959,2.0.1,,,15790 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.1848435874,0.0,1041.452981464,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.1848435874,1.2657781225,0.1005134217,0.094900864,2.0.1,,,510 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.1521708088,0.0,55.262591933,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.1521708088,1.3044406101,0.0746712369,0.0705845865,2.0.1,,,102 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.55928265,0.0,284.20368462,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.55928265,1.6323769125,0.0683781244,0.0648065086,2.0.1,,,510 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.7449838346,0.0,443.590980849,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,3.7449838346,4.1492831073,0.0880950077,0.1051946757,2.0.1,,,60 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.7428835095,0.0,1531.88394101,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,5.7428835095,6.4760151224,0.0850931924,0.0780002055,2.0.1,,,1020 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,1.9027740715,0.0,339.830400567,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,1.9027740715,2.2117006108,0.1535186178,0.1373877839,2.0.1,,,60 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.6148508861,0.0,640.376472624,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,3.6148508861,4.2291679217,0.1102426328,0.0918310561,2.0.1,,,1020 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5896099351,0.0,370.731844336,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.5896099351,0.6831004748,0.018235926,0.0162937715,2.0.1,,,1980 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,1.4161705928,0.0,484.092505837,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,1.4161705928,1.8121264962,0.0078905979,0.0061269301,2.0.1,,,10000 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.7197387018,0.0,1623.079508759,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.7197387018,0.8130155521,0.8618716657000001,0.8177303567,2.0.1,,,1180 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7460571909,0.0,305.838406241,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.7460571909,0.9004451123,0.5484556556,0.465201591,2.0.1,,,1180 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6974795864000001,0.0,304.955501139,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6974795864000001,0.8766229998,0.0920567866,0.0749195627,2.0.1,,,3068 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5569559255000001,0.0,406.630838224,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5569559255000001,0.7213815906000001,0.5351516929,0.41312756,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5789001687,0.0,265.527152189,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,0.5789001687,0.7551866274,0.2126255133,0.1630497452,2.0.1,,,128 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.3391730809,0.0,334.639738077,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.3391730809,1.5642224637000002,0.3410053076,0.3084284928,2.0.1,,,231 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.4515903467,0.0,4856.390390097,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.4515903467,0.4663908322,0.3278975237,1.0549343053,2.0.1,,,420 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7298517236000001,0.0,422.357523714,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7298517236000001,0.9701127541,0.7985714674000001,0.5920639476,2.0.1,,,1340 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.6792689234,0.0,17708.502792506,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.6792689234,0.7681145469,2.1525859416,2.2310513851,2.0.1,,,1340 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0218515241,0.0,1374.809584598,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0218515241,1.1819548335,0.4417713284,0.3701215676,2.0.1,,,29364 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9362638046,0.0,1377.807311117,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9362638046,1.151797309,0.4386759996,0.3617147564,2.0.1,,,30490 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.3049170998,0.0,1481.177475357,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,1.3049170998,1.5463300248,0.140745189,0.1181658339,2.0.1,,,110 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.9059171447,0.0,1801.326725561,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.9059171447,1.1044049767,0.0540108977,0.0444124312,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.1416586194,0.0,3876.877459598,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,1.1416586194,1.4215223964,0.0960090132,0.0769991028,2.0.1,,,160 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.8587229014,0.0,11111.154965765,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.8587229014,1.761972427,0.302437371,0.3644260201,2.0.1,,,1380 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,2.6902332367,0.0,469.659707589,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,2.6902332367,2.1640102467,0.6020359665,0.9331343204,2.0.1,,,1180 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.7085218117000001,0.0,1636.438172128,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.7085218117000001,0.8717386477,0.3710609339,0.2987534022,2.0.1,,,6502 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.2113521188,0.0,152.253078862,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.2113521188,1.3812243729,0.0628061324,0.0551848097,2.0.1,,,35 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.3984122308,0.0,80.974064822,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.3984122308,1.71276995,0.0573217526,0.0465205009,2.0.1,,,35 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.2482652223,0.0,3480.038220145,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.2482652223,1.4759756392,0.4056582451,0.3425447103,2.0.1,,,4116 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.6455287753,0.0,174.201546265,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.6455287753,1.8249729553,0.2905908525,0.2595910509,2.0.1,,,3942 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.5781148561,0.0,12099.182737344,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.5781148561,0.6678317895,0.2277583107,0.1969163908,2.0.1,,,11150 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.5013864497,0.0,585.627439512,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.5013864497,0.6512769978,0.1783457696,0.135127457,2.0.1,,,8920 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6528759965,0.0,419.52374111,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6528759965,0.7950641496,0.2494917773,0.2041438251,2.0.1,,,1370 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.2959542496,0.0,29.938983224,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,1.2959542496,1.7922537528,0.3008096814,0.2181202588,2.0.1,,,137 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,1.4584163166000002,0.0,1452.280802725,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,1.4584163166000002,1.3147978753,1.2681774691,1.1487515083,2.0.1,,,20 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.1225466397,0.0,223.223674699,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.1225466397,1.3836855571,0.2860204957,0.2303977966,2.0.1,,,44 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,1.5607085558,0.0,3192.157178467,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,1.5607085558,1.2991890754,0.4116057828,0.5268864008,2.0.1,,,80 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,7.7115645361,0.0,768.6960846,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,7.7115645361,8.8341213691,0.0214682838,0.0188346391,2.0.1,,,240 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.7990662584,0.0,901.763477651,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.7990662584,3.1171908684,0.4527084805,0.6131520742000001,2.0.1,,,240 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.2375975817,0.0,94.775343948,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,2.2375975817,2.5352192342,0.0229528998,0.0198408228,2.0.1,,,48 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.7411671194,0.0,91.212828663,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.7411671194,6.252228662,0.4829665609,0.4963902021,2.0.1,,,48 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,5.5816729211,0.0,3179.678684717,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,5.5816729211,6.2345012475,0.5653157011000001,0.5001590872,2.0.1,,,2140 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,14.3311431786,0.0,158.602062052,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,14.3311431786,15.8503479662,0.1562370956,0.138335546,2.0.1,,,1070 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.4864869258,0.0,690.615290623,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.4864869258,1.7231034056,0.0240289312,0.0214320964,2.0.1,,,310 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.9078230052,0.0,296.607322825,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,1.9078230052,2.2422219291,0.0338116094,0.0294259535,2.0.1,,,310 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,3.7862940987,0.0,268.117960684,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,3.7862940987,4.453578755,0.0638795553,0.0515666785,2.0.1,,,310 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,1.2166093946,0.0,173.792624478,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,1.2166093946,1.3563890452,0.1773376018,0.1643578174,2.0.1,,,2936 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.6879348969,0.0,271.545519405,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.6879348969,3.1762491991,0.081172869,0.0701479592,2.0.1,,,1719 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.3050094069,0.0,308.227983309,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.3050094069,1.5403532831,0.0126706732,0.010866463,2.0.1,,,2370 -Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.552402438,0.0,59.487051402,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,2.552402438,3.0020746256,0.0681912079,0.0552036802,2.0.1,,,356 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.597092731,0.0,23.224015235,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.597092731,0.7138930444,0.1157490913,0.0969683943,,,,280 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2461046836,0.0,22.790157054,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2461046836,1.4174248495,0.3646975075,0.3129149392,,,,280 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.9634114324,0.0,23.063304525,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.9634114324,1.1439289261,0.2547681354,0.2146782131,,,,280 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4688224531,0.0,6.305912987,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.4688224531,2.7153947044,0.5208597481,0.4643316617,,,,70 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8625023325000001,0.0,250.299855604,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8625023325000001,0.9847669395,0.0372882528,0.0326217509,,,,3230 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7695770803,0.0,249.409578512,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.7695770803,0.9012445092,0.077676107,0.0664487294,,,,3230 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.6606205367,0.0,252.777724307,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.6606205367,0.7671902281,0.0829992138,0.0714930823,,,,3230 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.7844887054,0.0,24.85723141,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.7844887054,0.8999893558000001,0.0968305223,0.0844361527,,,,300 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.6604636921,0.0,23.947521482,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.6604636921,0.775167995,0.1584326059,0.1339606641,,,,300 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.4438538338,0.0,121.765275519,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.4438538338,0.5133618160000001,0.245247978,0.2118998785,,,,1560 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.5170317067,0.0,25.087226993,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.5170317067,0.6129421994,0.2091502994,0.1764986928,,,,312 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.7908486579,0.0,14.482178761,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.7908486579,0.9146409764,0.0969211906,0.0836038879,,,,178 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.2699963407,0.0,107.107984053,e200b7c6bc525a8d,True,0.7.0,0.2699963407,0.3142160547,0.6564920723000001,0.5695530374000001,,,,1340 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.8018621055,0.0,107.986037061,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.8018621055,0.9235145261,0.7455375254000001,0.6469029607,,,,1340 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5099402658000001,0.0,106.13935458,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.5099402658000001,0.5884124519,1.8708190978,1.6183676077,,,,1340 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.8516064277000001,0.0,2373.00595933,0d8bfe3780a2c494,False,0.7.0,0.8516064277000001,0.9677992163,0.735691011,0.6369837787,,,,30490 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0814673882,0.0,2290.891352852,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0814673882,1.199580668,0.4508921802,0.3886462021,,,,29364 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9747800888,0.0,2332.306454716,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9747800888,1.1330759513,0.4258472919,0.3622685986,,,,30490 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.9003739311000001,0.0,9.728411242,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,0.9003739311000001,0.9935522058,0.0814341474,0.0732963269,,,,110 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.4208035936,0.0,2.521407185,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.4208035936,0.463580052,0.022570387,0.0204786531,,,,20 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.5086387805,0.0,13.541828748,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,0.5086387805,0.5526319982,0.0343229823,0.0315794369,,,,160 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.160404574,0.0,98.24554745,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,1.160404574,1.3649343142,0.3414731026,0.2914044606,,,,1260 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.4505298471,0.0,107.579581425,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.4505298471,1.5646420584,0.263667053,0.2287683337,,,,1380 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,0.8873768717,0.0,91.825214293,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,0.8873768717,1.0328105291,0.3967622221,0.3372367613,,,,1180 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.7474752761,0.0,494.888195731,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.7474752761,0.8630231098000001,0.3637035079,0.3121784735,,,,6502 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 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{'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.2026659678,0.0,320.868032144,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.2026659678,1.3442522277,0.3645052612,0.3250144355,,,,4116 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.6933358341,0.0,306.0315988,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.6933358341,1.8996288065,0.292871207,0.2594374504,,,,3942 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6669937254,0.0,105.915848403,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6669937254,0.7866198335,0.2471724987,0.2094179217,,,,1370 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.9287843032,0.0,11.704671042,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.9287843032,1.1001413936,0.1854887605,0.1567824467,,,,137 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,0.9625972649,0.0,2.840639875,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,0.9625972649,1.1181879294,1.5058858633,1.3507714502,,,,20 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,1.1815051767,0.0,2.533551682,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,1.1815051767,1.3031564924,1.4480908126,1.3598337832,,,,20 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.2144755341,0.0,4.282784176,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.2144755341,1.3990875663,0.2892992957,0.2497182101,,,,44 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,1.0009256435,0.0,7.122460654,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,1.0009256435,1.1924183278,0.400704702,0.3368853083,,,,80 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 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'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,5.2476339527,0.0,4.749044138,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,5.2476339527,5.8508558031,0.0525751226,0.0470469389,,,,48 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,3.5699175673,0.0,4.6911636990000005,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,3.5699175673,4.2487016855,0.4364076927,0.346954435,,,,48 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.6498480124,0.0,169.640670302,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,3.6498480124,4.1215258287,0.4043421954,0.3594274377,,,,2140 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,26.4381110934,0.0,84.210658576,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,26.4381110934,27.7918750277,0.2817648932,0.2660261673,,,,1070 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.8961848647,0.0,25.040507703,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.8961848647,2.1034739353,0.0353930782,0.032429082,,,,310 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,2.8659918221,0.0,25.035186567,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,2.8659918221,3.2110317266,0.0549728539,0.050684032,,,,310 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,5.8799625833,0.0,24.774984393,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,5.8799625833,6.4807387204,0.1102996588,0.0997271328,,,,310 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.8422492473000001,0.0,230.839530845,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,0.8422492473000001,0.9842192099,0.1211136207,0.1036346439,,,,2936 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.6825226706,0.0,133.395333519,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,3.6825226706,4.0694291919,0.1067606712,0.0955702861,,,,1719 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.6015213365,0.0,180.122422217,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.6015213365,1.7987773288,0.0145865259,0.0129798805,,,,2370 -Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,4.3603502979,0.0,28.539923844,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,4.3603502979,4.7392839763,0.1553527489,0.1403522964,,,,356 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.6023976568,0.0,622.826942601,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.6023976568,0.7625422865,0.122192445,0.0966499793,,,,280 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2302029516,0.0,192.758975266,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2302029516,1.4991782178,0.3959747152,0.3179643477,,,,280 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.93321436,0.0,574.371845285,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.93321436,1.1773747941,0.2553246886,0.2034494101,,,,280 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4105571965,0.0,18.631796632,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.4105571965,2.8095121652,0.5109347999,0.4148319078,,,,70 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7804864737,0.0,816.525347527,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.7804864737,0.9622221749,0.0365180448,0.0295572487,,,,3230 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6785128884,0.0,5646.124844318,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.6785128884,0.8527195266,0.0731078316,0.0580208445,,,,3230 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.6414697138000001,0.0,7730.018708689,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.6414697138000001,0.7953950095000001,0.0858088784,0.0689450513,,,,3230 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.7560067856,0.0,282.412570748,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.7560067856,0.9194900606,0.0926615007,0.0776412798,,,,300 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.6460899053,0.0,562.021668514,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.6460899053,0.7953014020000001,0.1593384311,0.1296769427,,,,300 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.4285012823,0.0,1177.181895488,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.4285012823,0.5231892934,0.2500552535,0.2040341404,,,,1560 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4935099732,0.0,91.394116006,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.4935099732,0.5369530543000001,0.1798963994,0.1666049443,,,,312 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.6989805801,0.0,34.08641208,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.6989805801,0.8868052992000001,0.0927634016,0.07310177,,,,178 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3540742815,0.0,127.704236993,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.3540742815,0.4458486692,0.360369738,0.3020415377,,,,140 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 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'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.4837394321,0.0,277.003432296,34c503cb4346b380,False,0.7.0,0.4837394321,0.6094490505,0.0426369185,0.0335205629,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.4419444303,0.0,296.701026967,0cb6316a70bf9d47,False,0.7.0,0.4419444303,0.5377189816,0.0333449995,0.0272967255,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.5116608489,0.0,294.146155078,6ff7f68ac7fbd564,False,0.7.0,0.5116608489,0.6350493808000001,0.0390591249,0.0321818804,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.5324134798,0.0,67.483784867,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,0.5324134798,0.6701844387,0.1179565661,0.0932975438,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,0.4402987265,0.0,67.661415406,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,0.4402987265,0.5674762585,0.3069136301,0.2426255873,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,0.3307410445,0.0,67.242104675,bc5a57cd5727d527,False,0.7.0,0.3307410445,0.4181703173,0.0618426707,0.0491162423,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,0.6592724518,0.0,65.401675639,80b01220b34be222,False,0.7.0,0.6592724518,0.8709423510000001,0.0386706958,0.0293296573,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.4270292068,0.0,66.395716168,04be360a47b231a4,False,0.7.0,0.4270292068,0.5339815846,0.092521411,0.0739926826,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,0.9810503129,0.0,304.438810058,d1c9de98a43d4097,False,0.7.0,0.9810503129,1.2627737925,0.0898239311,0.0688811199,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.2076871071,0.0,332.245445011,95b91121d95f89c8,False,0.7.0,1.2076871071,1.5551131815,0.0795933543,0.0615615188,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.9028337317,0.0,30.323501934,167e0223cbbc1b69,False,0.7.0,0.9028337317,1.2288572299,0.05342761,0.0407906509,,,,120 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,1.2284207021,0.0,270.147918178,091a619858bdabc9,False,0.7.0,1.2284207021,1.6253611467,0.0684465686,0.0531508617,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,0.9697812299,0.0,7345.838813181,3c676e1d0f771bf4,False,0.7.0,0.9697812299,1.1942878338,0.1485749632,0.1204039869,,,,15790 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.9335734731,0.0,517.691344205,7c94de5b6e2859ff,False,0.7.0,1.9335734731,2.1757603336,0.1158652566,0.0943255732,,,,3158 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.1226627361,0.0,3164.105345998,aae27c565b10fe7f,False,0.7.0,2.1226627361,2.5267645799,0.1259902738,0.1011036417,,,,15790 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.2251845822,0.0,242.410962423,af6c7be9c6bf8910,False,0.7.0,1.2251845822,1.6727335501,0.0773345503,0.0603391606,,,,510 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.2438493019,0.0,22.886077933,a9ebe0fd05a285b6,False,0.7.0,1.2438493019,1.4261630874,0.0822258855,0.0718016091,,,,102 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.9116392061,0.0,112.386299644,dcf0217a3f159ec8,False,0.7.0,1.9116392061,2.436781004,0.070972002,0.0575076503,,,,510 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.872866885,0.0,24.271172449,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,3.872866885,4.6737821611,0.0853241075,0.0743757483,,,,60 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,6.3986770227,0.0,289.177228128,764e9294023ee081,False,0.7.0,6.3986770227,7.7467550529,0.0845430854,0.0703198143,,,,1020 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,2.2915507616,0.0,22.044858268,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,2.2915507616,2.9044098381000003,0.1495637866,0.1232875729,,,,60 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,4.2401411107,0.0,200.074460561,d257091c861020bf,False,0.7.0,4.2401411107,5.2932799619,0.1155847,0.0926080385,,,,1020 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.6741322757,0.0,306.49392464,e60f8e1e38f9acca,False,0.7.0,0.6741322757,0.9010948704,0.0235774602,0.0179419087,,,,1980 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,0.7049311249,0.0,3298.342035606,f87501b2bd02803b,False,0.7.0,0.7049311249,0.9123318673,0.003404404,0.0026219625,,,,10000 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5720159668,0.0,579.919207945,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.7.0,0.5720159668,0.7080055758,0.7258024514,0.5928670205000001,,,,1180 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6369452495,0.0,267.055232427,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.7.0,0.6369452495,0.7740136921,0.4384448647,0.3741749103,,,,1180 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6961291798,0.0,496.649065989,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.7.0,0.6961291798,0.8808779374,0.0931978375,0.0744330876,,,,3068 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5622795668,0.0,80.142890459,51b7fbd3926341eb,False,0.7.0,0.5622795668,0.7244514742,0.5375386306000001,0.4170562141,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.5814141841,0.0,35.95493711,bff3ae304070efd9,False,0.7.0,0.5814141841,0.7534416615,0.2122697207,0.163762699,,,,128 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.412525166,0.0,863.943525893,311a660faf591409,False,0.7.0,0.412525166,0.516391649,0.2988471952,0.2551716964,,,,420 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.1553103934,0.0,69.238576972,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.7.0,1.1553103934,1.4445769356,0.2843381079,0.2320364869,,,,231 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.4127616053,0.0,774.363291708,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.7.0,0.4127616053,0.5111184304,0.2825195241,0.2343045768,,,,420 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.5550654023,0.0,2650.714077241,e200b7c6bc525a8d,False,0.7.0,0.5550654023,0.6951920674000001,2.9485943079,2.3282104591,,,,1340 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7153283882,0.0,271.993962454,67f17ff257220281,False,0.7.0,0.7153283882,0.9150751748,0.729861784,0.5680073145,,,,1340 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.5433847052,0.0,2430.690493173,257e85b44bdb8154,False,0.7.0,0.5433847052,0.6765431227,2.7372743011000003,2.2207570053,,,,1340 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0016519091,0.0,5159.98158573,78d200c01b7350ff,False,0.7.0,1.0016519091,1.1871283177,0.4364556372,0.3466619129,,,,29364 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.9281611829,0.0,8498.926744264,60d0a43fd09b5dcc,False,0.7.0,0.9281611829,1.1604987437,0.4357982576,0.3436698517,,,,30490 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,0.8344528413000001,0.0,237.059457211,e39dc59e1a6af0e2,False,0.7.0,0.8344528413000001,1.0338246822,0.0878337689,0.0702222225,,,,110 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.5148198578000001,0.0,59.271923663,90428df2dbce525e,False,0.7.0,0.5148198578000001,0.6406314316,0.0314071138,0.0252054415,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,0.6716514716,0.0,337.373854587,f8bf8da06e500162,False,0.7.0,0.6716514716,0.8553343104000001,0.0562544549,0.0440642892,,,,160 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.2504740912,0.0,2379.030323521,391e616eee276356,False,0.7.0,1.2504740912,2.1719934434,0.2824990153,0.2325884637,,,,1260 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.3205339155,0.0,820.337277951,a7542f5bcc8cf4ab,False,0.7.0,1.3205339155,1.4385006498,0.2258856788,0.1873583276,,,,1380 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,0.7111485095000001,0.0,2540.255711945,4776bd88b54d8a04,False,0.7.0,0.7111485095000001,0.8423602104,0.3484145552,0.289831124,,,,1180 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.6930359174,0.0,1939.457551525,3863ed9dabc164dc,False,0.7.0,0.6930359174,0.8689264082,0.3642114922,0.286941911,,,,6502 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.3410638007,0.0,34.902976293,8334ba19a7f5e7a1,False,0.7.0,1.3410638007,1.547892006,0.0655876726,0.0585028628,,,,35 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.5240499794,0.0,12.991896232,63260348a6b49874,False,0.7.0,1.5240499794,1.9886917666,0.0652046457,0.049953361,,,,35 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.220508006,0.0,877.590754188,516398d9cb76a18f,False,0.7.0,1.220508006,1.5204800642,0.2151686251,0.1697896851,,,,3942 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.23207865,0.0,14387.535355731,7c1cf165ce5e0f8b,False,0.7.0,0.23207865,0.2944517637,0.0979018956,0.0772288962,,,,11150 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.2538651882,0.0,1488.372172291,cf54ffb87953c85f,False,0.7.0,0.2538651882,0.3046311863,0.0791731263,0.0659741153,,,,8920 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.6146167789,0.0,356.121102074,4a9fb28f2a62f798,False,0.7.0,0.6146167789,0.7848225151,0.2466564849,0.1919496514,,,,1370 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,0.8695612766,0.0,26.700574169,856de5fa702db186,False,0.7.0,0.8695612766,1.0931583831,0.1849420816,0.1459644443,,,,137 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,0.7470578953,0.0,61.940340957,61e547dc95d83f5d,False,0.7.0,0.7470578953,0.9444749979,1.1661535196,0.9712352474,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,0.7005612194,0.0,69.248057882,a5ce88d03879a959,False,0.7.0,0.7005612194,0.8628512004000001,0.9096449066,0.7960101453,,,,20 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.1863454763,0.0,36.414025668,1acb95a018b86a63,False,0.7.0,1.1863454763,1.5308266811,0.3105711883,0.239766452,,,,44 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,0.9312390864,0.0,186.834506216,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,0.9312390864,1.1751368971,0.3857780203,0.3066820684,,,,80 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,13.0445256974,0.0,233.156534991,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,13.0445256974,16.8706126207,0.0419449611,0.0316628726,,,,240 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.0764757709,0.0,180.724875159,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,2.0764757709,2.5101268505,0.4174416304,0.3652919167,,,,240 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.8719957749,0.0,13.317467767,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,2.8719957749,3.1721656359,0.0386651377,0.0313019374,,,,48 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.1427702993,0.0,13.727034601,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,4.1427702993,4.8064190531,0.626670666,0.5181874025000001,,,,48 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.8009751218,0.0,1854.394699517,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,3.8009751218,4.582072345,0.4566554457,0.3768120784,,,,2140 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,16.9124597959,0.0,163.597468951,e882978eeee0c5e3,False,0.7.0,16.9124597959,19.7677867998,0.1957054086,0.16972636,,,,1070 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.5711057336,0.0,106.80668551,6f0b0899ba9d50bb,False,0.7.0,1.5711057336,1.8857443126,0.0282917617,0.0243746544,,,,310 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,2.6728862979,0.0,106.271390052,34ddaf654b836be3,False,0.7.0,2.6728862979,3.7648783035,0.0508262731,0.039451329,,,,310 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,4.1801774688,0.0,55.193754933,69d8accb103bbb77,False,0.7.0,4.1801774688,5.0551837428,0.0673417844,0.0536317719,,,,310 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,0.6618592710000001,0.0,625.895905024,f84328c62c91aaf5,False,0.7.0,0.6618592710000001,0.8317842871000001,0.0943299681,0.0751515146,,,,2936 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.7200799174,0.0,267.598193471,66fdc0a9c269539c,False,0.7.0,2.7200799174,3.2702702323,0.0868360951,0.0717195922,,,,1719 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.1492708484,0.0,357.449659468,63f326fa372ad29a,False,0.7.0,1.1492708484,1.3478888107,0.0108183488,0.0093362704,,,,2370 -TabPFN-TS,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.7953196676000003,0.0,57.327634924,f03e22f4082953f7,False,0.7.0,2.7953196676000003,3.3270326033,0.0676485132,0.0601786476,,,,356 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.5771622748,0.0,64.786757655,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.5771622748,0.7295309932,0.1167248718,0.0925313491,2.0.0,,,280 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.1440582667,0.0,3.459230485,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.1440582667,1.3611067371,0.332150948,0.267888696,2.0.0,,,280 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.8822637379,0.0,66.847923284,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.8822637379,1.1239074995,0.245201607,0.1916135933,2.0.0,,,280 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.2485701754,0.0,0.642457335,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.2485701754,2.6215325512,0.4956519336,0.3998766685,2.0.0,,,70 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.7738014961,0.0,6.011495267,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.7738014961,0.9509504834,0.0359623253,0.0292182088,2.0.0,,,3230 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.6206804936,0.0,106.692232849,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.6206804936,0.7539313166,0.0643115029,0.0529133781,2.0.0,,,3230 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.5953126390000001,0.0,202.939028706,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.5953126390000001,0.7344527308000001,0.0792618439,0.0643709018,2.0.0,,,3230 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.7075343346,0.0,1.847663017,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.7075343346,0.8575514804000001,0.0935403809,0.0773717212,2.0.0,,,300 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.556059175,0.0,33.107849628,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.556059175,0.6693472657,0.13799605,0.1143436056,2.0.0,,,300 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.3966454244,0.0,16.42275307,3e6f0d3380ac07cc,False,0.7.0,0.3966454244,0.5037458638,0.2409728497,0.1894354422,2.0.0,,,1560 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.4156030479,0.0,1.66766593,7c28d9c08a8a99d2,False,0.7.0,0.4156030479,0.5174781061,0.1730356291,0.1394973218,2.0.0,,,312 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.7323027992000001,0.0,0.542670728,e3e704ef830bb1f4,False,0.7.0,0.7323027992000001,0.9190089649,0.0948839262,0.0761527549,2.0.0,,,178 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.3261346281,0.0,10.172930753,fd3fb3349ee15a22,False,0.7.0,0.3261346281,0.4101674728,0.3901138266,0.3062390652,2.0.0,,,140 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.4610602059,0.0,68.706033288,9cb515b57514a9ab,False,0.7.0,0.4610602059,0.5787129625,0.9057201819,0.7904916189000001,2.0.0,,,140 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.5732470754,0.0,68.968922648,44381d6f431f8c90,False,0.7.0,0.5732470754,0.6916399154,0.5789273618,0.4710064002,2.0.0,,,420 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,0.7045922388,0.0,68.969377764,1466ee197c499055,False,0.7.0,0.7045922388,0.8179153246,0.3045249204,0.2609844697,2.0.0,,,1060 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.1900803084,0.0,64.118523548,5d9eb3c2d9389376,False,0.7.0,0.1900803084,0.2365234795,0.1242312214,0.1000748977,2.0.0,,,980 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,1.1874247824,0.0,68.965870854,034f57f6576437cc,False,0.7.0,1.1874247824,1.3669883226,0.2999179457,0.2547608466,2.0.0,,,460 -TimesFM-2.5,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 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1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,0.5270142745,0.0,0.70574625,50acce5fc8987a4f,False,0.7.0,0.5270142745,0.6743990368,0.1230011668,0.0962218885,1.0.0,,,20 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.0321659189,0.0,0.70938062,491dc89fd5b322b5,False,0.7.0,1.0321659189,1.2971032281,0.5786662247000001,0.468452292,1.0.0,,,20 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load 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0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.1480800218,0.0,2.550835136,22fd3891c3b685ce,False,0.7.0,1.1480800218,1.3844809879,0.3783946335,0.3154378947,1.0.0,,,4116 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 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0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,0.8650050244,0.0,2.779986801,187086c23269b305,False,0.7.0,0.8650050244,1.1061991604,0.3697669104,0.2890236922,1.0.0,,,80 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,7.6534868379,0.0,0.759064466,cb76ab66e8a2acda,False,0.7.0,7.6534868379,8.929376688,0.0159650212,0.0138342964,1.0.0,,,240 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,4.5324987152,0.0,0.367138503,0398b1ae44b0e1ae,False,0.7.0,4.5324987152,5.4013881506,0.6047020033,0.5056475261,1.0.0,,,48 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,3.7286792775,0.0,1.504742794,a8353cbb69d9d419,False,0.7.0,3.7286792775,4.4705040881,0.4611622334,0.3797951228,1.0.0,,,2140 -TiRex,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.5775128338000001,3339.237548761,3.483763619,1180,0ecbb4076fd5ba78,False,0.8.0,0.5775128338000001,0.6970371604000001,0.702080134,0.5825354928,1.5.0,, +DeepAR,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.6934204731,1450.553284434,1.606397394,1180,691bd281f0ad7adc,False,0.8.0,0.6934204731,0.8434878870000001,0.4666803532,0.3962245576,1.5.0,, +DeepAR,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.7754934212,762.988415725,4.321599029,3068,9c6e8721c2eca10b,False,0.8.0,0.7754934212,0.9839730481,0.0946332295,0.0763542764,1.5.0,, 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0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.5945116836000001,42199.479415029,26.028924104,420,311a660faf591409,False,0.8.0,0.5945116836000001,0.6789537866,0.3602273192,0.3312178723,1.5.0,, +DeepAR,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.9409795236,1615.155837204,1.465538167,231,81a9d748210aa612,False,0.8.0,1.9409795236,2.2704267056,0.4102490617,0.353442622,1.5.0,, +DeepAR,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.4870567156,17955.122653577,4.345687954,420,8eb1d310607e8fee,False,0.8.0,0.4870567156,0.5783146828,0.2966964214,0.2542087262,1.5.0,, +DeepAR,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 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Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,1.0461703764,0.0,3.333829082,3230,678fdb11fbd87309,False,0.8.0,1.0461703764,1.1753801193,0.0445690594,0.0397058571,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,1.5008790843000002,0.0,3.958258343,3230,85c8da08d0377714,False,0.8.0,1.5008790843000002,1.3516779896,0.1172784963,0.1307515175,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_15T,0.5602190944000001,0.0,2.687035712,1560,947f77f0c19ac7ce,False,0.8.0,0.5602190944000001,0.6992652749,0.3343059967,0.2672484294,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.8375139425,0.0,0.588358367,312,c8fc2c774fa27320,False,0.8.0,0.8375139425,0.6288121202,0.2122471743,0.2910650923,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 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'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,1.4642665234,0.0,6.26200769,1040,cd1d53a59eac2c8a,False,0.8.0,1.4642665234,0.8339307568000001,0.2553250916,0.3053456375,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.8427719298,0.0,4.478061426,1500,7e9816ee39ec8d75,False,0.8.0,0.8427719298,0.9041727836,0.5204730917,0.490065287,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,1.6696910968,0.0,4.950201956,2000,8afbba40b02d520a,False,0.8.0,1.6696910968,1.3439772561,0.4651800067,0.569989729,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,6.0221504812,0.0,5.389185438,1500,b08e8ba2a228e2e5,False,0.8.0,6.0221504812,1.248763342,0.6725665365,1.2032068554,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,1.2751647051,0.0,5.371530655,1040,a20d9d612ea2e091,False,0.8.0,1.2751647051,1.123557013,0.9458725566,0.9678549923,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,2.490998287,0.0,4.381599183,1340,65e5cc1b1b902449,False,0.8.0,2.490998287,0.6290173238,0.2919496092,0.9858607218,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.6474289684,0.0,4.616054569,560,45e417d57b7c8664,False,0.8.0,1.6474289684,1.1186074152,0.5169750434,0.8113458731000001,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.7763740412,0.0,2.019392142,240,e72cf15c97fc1dd6,False,0.8.0,3.7763740412,4.1680850511,0.553441182,0.55470151,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_15T,0.7806910738,0.0,1.919052002,120,762c7ee326587aa2,False,0.8.0,0.7806910738,0.9314586877,0.0676773905,0.056612433,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,1.0561195215,0.0,1.80369016,120,aff93292e497726b,False,0.8.0,1.0561195215,1.1014887289,0.0792450116,0.0798215743,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,1.0103240736,0.0,1.823485358,120,0416fc7d5fcf96e2,False,0.8.0,1.0103240736,1.2161815078,0.0870952156,0.0725922166,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.1502802393,0.0,0.093145786,20,eacac43cdbd837ec,False,0.8.0,1.1502802393,1.0270532223,0.1840044497,0.2012625839,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.3876762483,0.0,0.089083096,20,ad020fd54ab7078f,False,0.8.0,1.3876762483,1.7085952976,0.7489839558,0.5919143997,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.245523433,0.0,0.095974068,20,dfce2cfc9cbcf380,False,0.8.0,1.245523433,0.8501188696,0.1298259961,0.1818024024,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.5298484623,0.0,0.089175967,20,0a17a2edca8b0670,False,0.8.0,1.5298484623,1.7613035948,0.0796461408,0.0691889058,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.5152721129,0.0,0.0950068,20,6752d1881d4327d6,False,0.8.0,0.5152721129,0.5811678677000001,0.1016348277,0.0908421956,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.3382664903,0.0,2.180686508,160,60f5c61c335ca94b,False,0.8.0,1.3382664903,1.5987746677,0.1245740203,0.1044921679,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.3214751737,0.0,2.405399306,160,9dac00f9725bae76,False,0.8.0,1.3214751737,1.5757631517,0.0818516594,0.0682466944,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.9042858344,0.0,1.593878549,120,f718a7351f27a9ca,False,0.8.0,0.9042858344,1.1128334801,0.0529377866,0.0427842586,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0789778449,0.0,2.297961482,160,b2fe1f0fe49551a1,False,0.8.0,2.0789778449,2.6319098754,0.1442763314,0.1143459151,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.6902367837,0.0,8.459294067,15790,19461c7044524e5b,False,0.8.0,1.6902367837,1.7590444109,0.2519854289,0.2375760783,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,2.0967116015,0.0,1.122214502,3158,84fb97f68dbadc4d,False,0.8.0,2.0967116015,2.2823009563,0.1900056962,0.1715121002,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.493828911,0.0,6.615522106,15790,209e5285efe3cc11,False,0.8.0,2.493828911,2.5171133606,0.1528069122,0.1608274594,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.7338216692,0.0,2.197636005,510,39e8c1c4f2cbe086,False,0.8.0,1.7338216692,1.8200471813,0.1460640723,0.1403339152,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.3301725317,0.0,0.53124969,102,f2fdd1578e3fe1da,False,0.8.0,1.3301725317,1.5197338049,0.0907197162,0.0855815697,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.6714139442,0.0,2.079750586,510,297f1fca2bed5b06,False,0.8.0,1.6714139442,1.5401800861,0.0709917221,0.0783787894,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 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1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,2.1461477989,0.0,0.993991831,10000,107b852d349c8182,False,0.8.0,2.1461477989,1.9945193442,0.0087068713,0.0087083111,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,1.0291569641,0.0,2.964307343,1180,77b3d008284e117b,False,0.8.0,1.0291569641,0.9949475154,1.0205005959,1.1222145629,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,1.3859393712,0.0,2.581075468,1180,2b2b335c105dabf3,False,0.8.0,1.3859393712,1.161708021,0.7169096389,0.9260072924,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.8075125999999999,0.0,1.726320123,3068,188b4fce7bbf0ba7,False,0.8.0,0.8075125999999999,1.0188066508,0.0954293196,0.0783920641,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.8571822312,0.0,2.017060278,160,2a4e1183560f9bb2,False,0.8.0,0.8571822312,1.0268297184,0.7622172844,0.6361459777,,, +Seasonal 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'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.6729893281,0.0,5.3863666850000005,420,25a5999066a34de5,False,0.8.0,0.6729893281,0.7300235005,0.7879570855,1.7057621919,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.7668616048,0.0,2.013323515,231,003626a54394cc81,False,0.8.0,1.7668616048,1.896570119,0.4190868354,0.4719762387,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.6550438080000001,0.0,3.857799128,420,75bfd3b5994a5acf,False,0.8.0,0.6550438080000001,0.7399001584,0.7711870189000001,1.2878361858,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.7774995271,0.0,3.193596391,1340,9b41e743d33077cd,False,0.8.0,0.7774995271,0.8187009941000001,3.3046867081,3.4658735195,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 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0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,1.2544668351,0.0,4.558047968,30490,a5408e93540ec5c9,False,0.8.0,1.2544668351,1.2236286696,0.9158941766,0.8588793502000001,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.1398593577,0.0,1.197290553,29364,b562dee8546ce598,False,0.8.0,1.1398593577,1.3266370567,0.5107534377,0.4285745192,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,1.3557578929,0.0,2.113068716,30490,0c7d59ea6d50dbdf,False,0.8.0,1.3557578929,1.3382424883,0.5041812027,0.5198944018,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.1997208149,0.0,1.900771997,110,b9d66f77d6db1337,False,0.8.0,1.1997208149,1.428177449,0.1285183847,0.1088404136,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,1.0750756471,0.0,0.198045082,20,a2f90b2f1ba52e38,False,0.8.0,1.0750756471,1.1988543805,0.0586917949,0.0529491741,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.3160349082,0.0,2.172523325,160,eba07ba0bb45e5dc,False,0.8.0,1.3160349082,1.5845048281,0.1077746007,0.089722227,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_15T,1.2313423839,0.0,3.104335771,1260,49fdfb78f00880f9,False,0.8.0,1.2313423839,1.0323384874,0.3900802548,0.4607365659,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.9424894304,0.0,3.152348013,1380,f7cbb47cb5f76ea7,False,0.8.0,1.9424894304,1.6826194385000002,0.3300818778,0.4120467256,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,1.2243411633,0.0,2.713195261,1180,b9a12aeba2af7192,False,0.8.0,1.2243411633,1.0410587245,0.4487639191,0.5026322375,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.9837597912,0.0,3.883331591,6502,5af240c09db342cf,False,0.8.0,0.9837597912,1.1194990367,0.4832833217,0.4263793897,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.5544219076,0.0,0.48583241,35,743d7d85eea679ed,False,0.8.0,1.5544219076,1.778287216,0.0827216385,0.0730389023,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.48444226,0.0,0.523064979,35,18a03d658590ecd3,False,0.8.0,1.48444226,1.7311823352,0.0583633151,0.049864809,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.3749816714,0.0,1.030239606,4116,bdd7a282f9fc98e5,False,0.8.0,1.3749816714,1.6150435596,0.434572573,0.3727953998,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.9282179035,0.0,0.6620430380000001,3942,a1817f8223c08fb5,False,0.8.0,1.9282179035,1.915482756,0.3118661576,0.3323396817,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.9136725128,0.0,6.632798858,11150,8441c9ccbe2ff4d1,False,0.8.0,0.9136725128,0.788554812,0.269245196,0.3139894576,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.8987958640000001,0.0,4.690887839,8920,e18c12f0c75cf8c0,False,0.8.0,0.8987958640000001,0.7960291358,0.2192445895,0.2508975249,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.9019637407,0.0,2.24268109,1370,61a16072f577b902,False,0.8.0,0.9019637407,0.9900696281,0.3093768293,0.2794918566,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.4228493264,0.0,0.358328518,137,b957c1ccfd8bdefc,False,0.8.0,1.4228493264,1.9187253577,0.3262903429,0.241539109,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,1.1937855534,0.0,0.155759502,20,52351e76b7090ab1,False,0.8.0,1.1937855534,1.0500995944,1.3114868693,1.407379817,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,1.2119606134,0.0,0.095274691,20,4a140710760f779a,False,0.8.0,1.2119606134,1.0619358778,1.2338736652,1.3170887593,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.4013449122,0.0,0.7846199030000001,44,0d2ba39e4e4ce5f4,False,0.8.0,1.4013449122,1.7337243232,0.3624341278,0.2922307509,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,1.3840397336,0.0,1.481471942,80,62f958117014ee08,False,0.8.0,1.3840397336,1.4424742215,0.4562693187,0.4608679679,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,27.0030153923,0.0,3.061350964,240,c8dff53b6fcb4695,False,0.8.0,27.0030153923,30.7671471057,0.0695790836,0.0616683882,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.5728651153,0.0,3.574190504,240,c8dff53b6fcb4695,False,0.8.0,2.5728651153,2.8996526624000003,0.498758484,0.7590347603,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,7.7039519851,0.0,0.7505562910000001,48,a1bd24bd7d949574,False,0.8.0,7.7039519851,8.7736590205,0.0820604019,0.0708838512,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.179534946,0.0,0.813865799,48,a1bd24bd7d949574,False,0.8.0,5.179534946,5.8035953052,0.4544002095,0.4524501247,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,4.5971311327,0.0,3.039479875,2140,46f9bb53c6d05e0a,False,0.8.0,4.5971311327,5.2400849677,0.5015514284,0.4420318364,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,24.6697283717,0.0,1.498313164,1070,c4fdce102c5b6f47,False,0.8.0,24.6697283717,26.0772211897,0.2501822097,0.2340614394,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,2.6840778498,0.0,2.352272576,310,c882f886bec32c78,False,0.8.0,2.6840778498,3.1370276829,0.0583924711,0.049707901,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,3.3237196194,0.0,2.039837177,310,9a76cd11c4c2c07e,False,0.8.0,3.3237196194,3.8594112151,0.0723187603,0.0619774435,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,6.5846226634,0.0,1.98551671,310,d29d0d81db6393b4,False,0.8.0,6.5846226634,7.3594854545,0.1702565159,0.1514273796,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,2.0341238509,0.0,0.691249572,2936,84f95b6543281d0d,False,0.8.0,2.0341238509,1.5240930926,0.1967351789,0.3075011098,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,3.1550152523,0.0,2.721730325,1719,c78d3682201594d9,False,0.8.0,3.1550152523,3.6978220067,0.0984961841,0.0832284265,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.8297624941,0.0,3.349339649,2370,f9ce571f4bf31401,False,0.8.0,1.8297624941,2.2537764571,0.017130013,0.0143077928,,, +Seasonal Naive,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,3.2013302679,0.0,0.6009012300000001,356,dcd8469c3acc4caa,False,0.8.0,3.2013302679,3.8281690565,0.1106580465,0.0866853457,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2707356893,0.0,608.828441765,280,936cfaf2a3a6ab34,False,0.8.0,1.2707356893,1.4122431199,0.3275626731,0.3227852614,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,1.2717102069,0.0,4714.086940447,280,abd94afdf0b158e2,False,0.8.0,1.2717102069,1.25185511,0.262127553,0.2620350459,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4073690889,0.0,124.575488096,70,2e18066fd2e18f63,False,0.8.0,2.4073690889,2.687435829,0.4587044315,0.449544632,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8198461450000001,0.0,1112.454967986,3230,678fdb11fbd87309,False,0.8.0,0.8198461450000001,0.9983198512,0.0378798347,0.0310410872,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,1.6869474033,0.0,27940.556480668,3230,85c8da08d0377714,False,0.8.0,1.6869474033,1.1788577267,0.1021083959,0.1489143854,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,1.0436727143,0.0,706.747016952,3230,ddf124d757f77e1e,False,0.8.0,1.0436727143,0.9579580065,0.1069220741,0.1151931596,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.9647884402,0.0,468.107587396,300,1ceaf27cc148581f,False,0.8.0,0.9647884402,1.0509325086,0.1192791435,0.1131422313,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,1.1265341156,0.0,3231.731145525,300,a291fe961233f488,False,0.8.0,1.1265341156,1.1917704371,0.2484246657,0.2346087824,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_1H,168,2,-336,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],SZ_TAXI_1H,0.6894973187,0.0,928.472901494,312,c8fc2c774fa27320,False,0.8.0,0.6894973187,0.5582147151,0.1850999182,0.2449234495,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,australian_tourism,8,2,-16,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],australian_tourism,0.7300394487,0.0,61.00332689,178,67065ff520a65e45,False,0.8.0,0.7300394487,0.932305264,0.0957876079,0.0747720206,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_1H,0.6336059937,0.0,2619.0596095,140,167357ba0cdd59b2,False,0.8.0,0.6336059937,0.7567537453000001,1.3223615306,1.2739406783,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,bizitobs_l2c_5T,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_2', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6']",,[],[],[],bizitobs_l2c_5T,0.719707877,0.0,353.262434736,140,89ab1ca4d8dbeb4e,False,0.8.0,0.719707877,0.8068916052,1.3437154865,1.5128526942,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1062,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1062,0.9851058113,0.0,617.307812747,420,5315f65aa45f55db,False,0.8.0,0.9851058113,1.001957498,0.7826401260000001,0.7822110512,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1209,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1209,2.4692530744,0.0,824.616393595,1060,af76fff1b484ede3,False,0.8.0,2.4692530744,1.0454166606,0.4339859429,1.0148176094,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1225,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1225,0.2803755246,0.0,702.539165121,980,53a43cd2c9c7ebf1,False,0.8.0,0.2803755246,0.2904167695,0.1538434969,0.1451941336,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1230,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1230,3.390035079,0.0,644.364184089,460,6e7b8e026660d41c,False,0.8.0,3.390035079,1.5513275427000002,0.3894998992,0.9994018454,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1282,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1282,0.7391125171,0.0,679.524693373,700,c0f21ca23524dd1f,False,0.8.0,0.7391125171,0.6397695785,0.4329732175,0.4977332198,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1487,288,20,-5760,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1487,0.6807093531,0.0,744.825421281,1080,230d7ec998d3cbb2,False,0.8.0,0.6807093531,0.6620511052,0.2612758557,0.2664583485,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1631,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1631,0.6885645595000001,0.0,42213.632290924,800,d69b69e987e32a2b,False,0.8.0,0.6885645595000001,0.7740257154,0.3432863772,0.3064743764,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1676,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1676,0.6950889415,0.0,35075.731520299,2000,027ec0ef1e78a6f2,False,0.8.0,0.6950889415,0.7494246952,0.3472162291,0.3190410513,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1855,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1855,1.1233499755,0.0,8049.207431988,1040,cd1d53a59eac2c8a,False,0.8.0,1.1233499755,0.7137233977,0.2153578233,0.2389634824,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_1975,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_1975,0.5478588831,0.0,8188.38293408,1500,7e9816ee39ec8d75,False,0.8.0,0.5478588831,0.5885200843,0.3327476299,0.3109341661,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_2187,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_75', 'target_76', 'target_77', 'target_78', 'target_79', 'target_8', 'target_80', 'target_81', 'target_82', 'target_83', 'target_84', 'target_85', 'target_86', 'target_87', 'target_88', 'target_89', 'target_9', 'target_90', 'target_91', 'target_92', 'target_93', 'target_94', 'target_95', 'target_96', 'target_97', 'target_98', 'target_99']",,[],[],[],boomlet_2187,1.2729717659,0.0,16875.678140559,2000,8afbba40b02d520a,False,0.8.0,1.2729717659,1.1813669206,0.4073318873,0.4312238248,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_285,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_67', 'target_68', 'target_69', 'target_7', 'target_70', 'target_71', 'target_72', 'target_73', 'target_74', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_285,1.2619335664,0.0,831.407679528,1500,b08e8ba2a228e2e5,False,0.8.0,1.2619335664,0.7526380616,0.3599062976,0.3030251372,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_619,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_619,0.7771722931,0.0,783.184310604,1040,a20d9d612ea2e091,False,0.8.0,0.7771722931,1.0046773678,0.8714422495,0.6585898854000001,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_772,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_28', 'target_29', 'target_3', 'target_30', 'target_31', 'target_32', 'target_33', 'target_34', 'target_35', 'target_36', 'target_37', 'target_38', 'target_39', 'target_4', 'target_40', 'target_41', 'target_42', 'target_43', 'target_44', 'target_45', 'target_46', 'target_47', 'target_48', 'target_49', 'target_5', 'target_50', 'target_51', 'target_52', 'target_53', 'target_54', 'target_55', 'target_56', 'target_57', 'target_58', 'target_59', 'target_6', 'target_60', 'target_61', 'target_62', 'target_63', 'target_64', 'target_65', 'target_66', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_772,1.1794168077,0.0,817.762945357,1340,65e5cc1b1b902449,False,0.8.0,1.1794168077,0.5801758941,0.2635365009,0.4436068427,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,boomlet_963,60,20,-1200,60,1,,1440,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_21', 'target_22', 'target_23', 'target_24', 'target_25', 'target_26', 'target_27', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],boomlet_963,1.334806172,0.0,655.038214048,560,45e417d57b7c8664,False,0.8.0,1.334806172,1.1173343953,0.5013279656,0.6331985560000001,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ecdc_ili,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ecdc_ili,3.8373639206,0.0,277.029946488,240,e72cf15c97fc1dd6,False,0.8.0,3.8373639206,4.3217167895,0.5675369603,0.542736267,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_1H,0.892037158,0.0,4560.067753702,120,aff93292e497726b,False,0.8.0,0.892037158,1.1146901489,0.0833483922,0.0660394337,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,entsoe_30T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['radiation_diffuse_horizontal', 'radiation_direct_horizontal', 'temperature']",[],[],entsoe_30T,0.8465164158,0.0,19801.467556355,120,0416fc7d5fcf96e2,False,0.8.0,0.8465164158,1.05779406,0.0767401429,0.0612245671,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_be,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_be,1.2134728193,0.0,1409.043915486,20,eacac43cdbd837ec,False,0.8.0,1.2134728193,0.9814265937,0.1754449336,0.2109049118,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_de,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Ampirion Load Forecast', 'PV+Wind Forecast']",[],[],epf_de,1.1665654366,0.0,1177.329813857,20,ad020fd54ab7078f,False,0.8.0,1.1665654366,1.3821005791,0.6023224579,0.4882155131,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_fr,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Generation forecast', 'System load forecast']",[],[],epf_fr,1.1455536514,0.0,1409.965868376,20,dfce2cfc9cbcf380,False,0.8.0,1.1455536514,0.7410271156,0.1133464851,0.1676462056,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_np,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['Grid load forecast', 'Wind power forecast']",[],[],epf_np,1.2844682023,0.0,941.171465659,20,0a17a2edca8b0670,False,0.8.0,1.2844682023,1.5147683467,0.0682558116,0.0573880566,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,epf_pjm,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['System load forecast', 'Zonal COMED load foecast']",[],[],epf_pjm,0.4870663954,0.0,1169.81271747,20,6752d1881d4327d6,False,0.8.0,0.4870663954,0.5294741765000001,0.0933488327,0.086260965,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1D,1.2548535606,0.0,756.615935166,160,60f5c61c335ca94b,False,0.8.0,1.2548535606,1.5207401260000002,0.1129253367,0.0936050684,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1H,1.2598225559,0.0,4278.595240888,160,9dac00f9725bae76,False,0.8.0,1.2598225559,1.610467348,0.0829790261,0.0642267414,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1M,12,15,-180,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1M,0.7617082098,0.0,277.027989137,120,f718a7351f27a9ca,False,0.8.0,0.7617082098,0.9720301012,0.0481692304,0.0375336712,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,ercot_1W,13,20,-260,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],ercot_1W,2.0949542296,0.0,348.546728613,160,b2fe1f0fe49551a1,False,0.8.0,2.0949542296,2.6623042198,0.1453860556,0.1138242996,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'onpromotion']",['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1D,1.197046553,0.0,19424.213439427,15790,19461c7044524e5b,False,0.8.0,1.197046553,1.3399997306,0.1788677609,0.1606240879,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1M,1.9426065544,0.0,209.424644577,3158,84fb97f68dbadc4d,False,0.8.0,1.9426065544,2.118127913,0.146696035,0.1265352804,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_stores_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,['onpromotion'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'family', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_stores_1W,2.2196005529,0.0,986.706169844,15790,209e5285efe3cc11,False,0.8.0,2.2196005529,2.4339800044,0.1436039782,0.1336292353,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,['holiday'],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1D,1.1848435872,0.0,1025.142276533,510,39e8c1c4f2cbe086,False,0.8.0,1.1848435872,1.2657781229,0.1005134217,0.0949008641,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1M,12,2,-24,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1M,1.1521707921,0.0,57.617529719,102,f2fdd1578e3fe1da,False,0.8.0,1.1521707921,1.3044405926,0.0746712369,0.070584588,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,favorita_transactions_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,transactions,,[],['oil_price'],"['city', 'cluster', 'state', 'store_nbr', 'type']",favorita_transactions_1W,1.5592826469,0.0,285.022276238,510,297f1fca2bed5b06,False,0.8.0,1.5592826469,1.6323769089,0.0683781244,0.0648065089,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_md_2025/cee,3.7449838629,0.0,454.605923437,60,6fd14b4ca30b94f0,False,0.8.0,3.7449838629,4.1492831363,0.0880950069,0.1051946757,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_md_2025,12,20,-240,12,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_md_2025/macro,5.7428835176,0.0,1490.957121959,1020,6fd14b4ca30b94f0,False,0.8.0,5.7428835176,6.4760151334,0.0850931927,0.0780002055,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['CPIAUCSL', 'FEDFUNDS', 'PAYEMS']",,[],"['M2REAL', 'NONBORRES', 'PPICMM', 'TOTRESNS']",[],fred_qd_2025/cee,1.9027740876,0.0,331.074303337,60,4ca57ebf484d0702,False,0.8.0,1.9027740876,2.2117006307,0.153518619,0.1373877838,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,fred_qd_2025,8,20,-160,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['AAA', 'AWHMAN', 'BAA', 'BUSINVx', 'CPIAUCSL', 'CPIMEDSL', 'CUMFNS', 'DMANEMP', 'EXUSUKx', 'FEDFUNDS', 'GS1', 'GS10', 'GS5', 'HOUST', 'INDPRO', 'INVEST', 'IPBUSEQ', 'IPCONGD', 'IPDCONGD', 'IPDMAT', 'IPFINAL', 'IPMANSICS', 'IPMAT', 'IPNCONGD', 'IPNMAT', 'M2REAL', 'MANEMP', 'NDMANEMP', 'NONBORRES', 'PAYEMS', 'PERMIT', 'PPICMM', 'S&P 500', 'SRVPRD', 'TB3MS', 'TB6MS', 'TOTRESNS', 'UEMP15T26', 'UEMP27OV', 'UEMP5TO14', 'UEMPLT5', 'UEMPMEAN', 'UMCSENTx', 'UNRATE', 'USCONS', 'USFIRE', 'USGOOD', 'USGOVT', 'USTPU', 'USTRADE', 'VIXCLSx']",,[],[],[],fred_qd_2025/macro,3.61485092,0.0,632.165260014,1020,4ca57ebf484d0702,False,0.8.0,3.61485092,4.2291679593,0.1102426311,0.0918310561,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,gvar,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['Dp', 'ep', 'eq', 'lr', 'r', 'y']",,[],"['pmat', 'pmetal', 'poil']",[],gvar,0.5896099364,0.0,375.897377289,1980,61766544be22840b,False,0.8.0,0.5896099364,0.6831004762,0.0182359256,0.0162937715,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hermes,52,1,-52,52,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['external'],[],"['category', 'country']",hermes,1.4161688306,0.0,488.437801157,10000,107b852d349c8182,False,0.8.0,1.4161688306,1.8121215322,0.0078905801,0.0061269214,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1D,0.7197387021,0.0,1620.362805308,1180,77b3d008284e117b,False,0.8.0,0.7197387021,0.8130155529,0.8618716737000001,0.8177303568000001,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hierarchical_sales_1W,13,10,-130,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hierarchical_sales_1W,0.7460571899,0.0,312.893964451,1180,2b2b335c105dabf3,False,0.8.0,0.7460571899,0.9004451111,0.5484556803,0.465201591,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital,12,4,-48,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital,0.6974795861,0.0,312.214439855,3068,188b4fce7bbf0ba7,False,0.8.0,0.6974795861,0.8766229994,0.0920567958,0.0749195627,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1D,0.5569559243000001,0.0,397.363352817,160,2a4e1183560f9bb2,False,0.8.0,0.5569559243000001,0.721381589,0.5351516929,0.4131275601,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,hospital_admissions_1W,13,16,-208,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],hospital_admissions_1W,0.57890017,0.0,276.394247896,128,5ac11b235b4614f4,False,0.8.0,0.57890017,0.7551866291,0.2126255133,0.1630497452,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_10T,144,20,-2880,144,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_10T,0.5538563553,0.0,616.975111465,420,25a5999066a34de5,False,0.8.0,0.5538563553,0.5144770169,0.3329980606,2.0838172673,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1D,1.3391730827,0.0,334.337234617,231,003626a54394cc81,False,0.8.0,1.3391730827,1.5642224636000002,0.3410053086,0.3084284928,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,jena_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['target_0', 'target_1', 'target_10', 'target_11', 'target_12', 'target_13', 'target_14', 'target_15', 'target_16', 'target_17', 'target_18', 'target_19', 'target_2', 'target_20', 'target_3', 'target_4', 'target_5', 'target_6', 'target_7', 'target_8', 'target_9']",,[],[],[],jena_weather_1H,0.4515903501,0.0,4850.928137527,420,75bfd3b5994a5acf,False,0.8.0,0.4515903501,0.4663908342,0.3278975253,1.0549343053,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_10T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,144,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_10T,0.7163827294,0.0,483.901636619,1340,9b41e743d33077cd,False,0.8.0,0.7163827294,0.7803435012000001,2.0407144947,2.3739032941,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_1D,14,10,-140,14,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_1D,0.7298649393000001,0.0,456.672477621,1340,53e3bfa3689aa2d7,False,0.8.0,0.7298649393000001,0.9701320837,0.7985928345000001,0.592077645,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,kdd_cup_2022_30T,96,10,-960,96,1,,48,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Patv,,[],"['Etmp', 'Itmp', 'Ndir', 'Pab1', 'Pab2', 'Pab3', 'Prtv', 'Wdir', 'Wspd']",[],kdd_cup_2022_30T,0.6792707648,0.0,17743.780041752,1340,f73b55a07564deaa,False,0.8.0,0.6792707648,0.7681164739,2.1525887472,2.2310516685,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1D,28,1,-28,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1D,0.8497151257000001,0.0,27609.128208784,30490,a5408e93540ec5c9,False,0.8.0,0.8497151257000001,1.056085495,0.7639724706000001,0.6095963829000001,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1M,12,1,-12,12,6,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1M,1.0218593551,0.0,1372.796699932,29364,b562dee8546ce598,False,0.8.0,1.0218593551,1.1819610746,0.4417751202,0.3701231937,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,m5_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['event_Cultural', 'event_National', 'event_Religious', 'event_Sporting', 'sell_price', 'snap_CA', 'snap_TX', 'snap_WI']",[],"['cat_id', 'dept_id', 'item_id', 'state_id', 'store_id']",m5_1W,0.936267814,0.0,1378.49901811,30490,0c7d59ea6d50dbdf,False,0.8.0,0.936267814,1.1518023057,0.4386763422,0.3617149107,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc12,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc12,1.3049877202,0.0,1435.398958235,110,b9d66f77d6db1337,False,0.8.0,1.3049877202,1.5464856742,0.1407506283,0.118165235,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc14,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc14,0.9059811027,0.0,1842.935324663,20,a2f90b2f1ba52e38,False,0.8.0,0.9059811027,1.104374425,0.0540094747,0.0444153796,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,proenfo_gfc17,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,['airtemperature'],[],[],proenfo_gfc17,1.1415607167,0.0,3871.19153531,160,eba07ba0bb45e5dc,False,0.8.0,1.1415607167,1.4212520631,0.0959939727,0.0769925953,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_1H,24,10,-240,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_1H,1.8587229269,0.0,11124.148094217,1380,f7cbb47cb5f76ea7,False,0.8.0,1.8587229269,1.7619724474,0.3024373795,0.3644260201,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,redset_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],['subset'],redset_5T,2.6902332368,0.0,478.260362976,1180,b9a12aeba2af7192,False,0.8.0,2.6902332368,2.1640102469,0.6020360036,0.9331343205,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,restaurant,28,8,-224,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],"['air_area_name', 'air_genre_name', 'latitude', 'longitude']",restaurant,0.7085204449,0.0,1742.769741152,6502,5af240c09db342cf,False,0.8.0,0.7085204449,0.8717288902,0.371055817,0.2987514342,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1D,61,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,61,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1D,1.2113713605,0.0,151.499606977,35,743d7d85eea679ed,False,0.8.0,1.2113713605,1.3812441342,0.0628070901,0.0551855368,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_orders_1W,8,5,2023-05-01T00:00:00,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,orders,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'shops_closed', 'winter_school_holidays']","['blackout', 'frankfurt_shutdown', 'mini_shutdown', 'mov_change', 'precipitation', 'shutdown', 'snow', 'user_activity_1', 'user_activity_2']",[],rohlik_orders_1W,1.3984122281,0.0,83.545676314,35,18a03d658590ecd3,False,0.8.0,1.3984122281,1.7127698932,0.0573217475,0.0465205011,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1D,14,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,14,14,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1D,1.2482652211,0.0,3508.551843119,4116,bdd7a282f9fc98e5,False,0.8.0,1.2482652211,1.4759756378,0.4056582076,0.3425447103,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rohlik_sales_1W,8,1,2023-12-15T00:00:00,8,8,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,sales,,"['holiday', 'school_holidays', 'sell_price_main', 'shops_closed', 'total_orders', 'type_0_discount', 'type_1_discount', 'type_2_discount', 'type_3_discount', 'type_4_discount', 'type_5_discount', 'type_6_discount', 'winter_school_holidays']",['availability'],"['L1_category_name_en', 'L2_category_name_en', 'L3_category_name_en', 'L4_category_name_en', 'name', 'product_unique_id', 'warehouse']",rohlik_sales_1W,1.6455287749,0.0,176.407668591,3942,a1817f8223c08fb5,False,0.8.0,1.6455287749,1.8249729566,0.2905908422,0.2595910509,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1D,48,10,-480,48,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['DayOfWeek', 'Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1D,0.5781174408,0.0,12117.235525238,11150,8441c9ccbe2ff4d1,False,0.8.0,0.5781174408,0.6678328701,0.2277587244,0.1969177128,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,rossmann_1W,13,8,-104,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,Sales,,"['Open', 'Promo', 'SchoolHoliday', 'StateHoliday']",['Customers'],"['Assortment', 'CompetitionDistance', 'CompetitionOpenSinceMonth', 'CompetitionOpenSinceYear', 'Promo2', 'Promo2SinceWeek', 'Promo2SinceYear', 'PromoInterval', 'Store', 'StoreType']",rossmann_1W,0.5013867415000001,0.0,588.728756493,8920,e18c12f0c75cf8c0,False,0.8.0,0.5013867415000001,0.6512773978,0.1783458246,0.135127503,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1D,0.652875996,0.0,425.238823049,1370,61a16072f577b902,False,0.8.0,0.652875996,0.7950641489,0.2494917675,0.2041438251,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_1W,13,1,-13,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],solar_1W,1.2959542538,0.0,29.067276533,137,b957c1ccfd8bdefc,False,0.8.0,1.2959542538,1.7922537586,0.3008096771,0.2181202588,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_15T,1.6828236467000002,0.0,38912.188720983,20,52351e76b7090ab1,False,0.8.0,1.6828236467000002,1.3249744371,1.2919990226,1.4546830286,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,solar_with_weather_1H,24,20,-480,24,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['day_length', 'humidity', 'pressure', 'rain_1h', 'snow_1h', 'temp', 'wind_speed']","['clouds_all', 'global_horizontal_irradiance']",[],solar_with_weather_1H,1.4584230416,0.0,1473.076658487,20,4a140710760f779a,False,0.8.0,1.4584230416,1.3148366264,1.2682511115,1.1487901491,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1D,28,11,-308,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1D,1.1225466563,0.0,204.304750639,44,0d2ba39e4e4ce5f4,False,0.8.0,1.1225466563,1.3836855748,0.2860204976,0.2303977967,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uci_air_quality_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['C6H6(GT)', 'CO(GT)', 'NO2(GT)', 'NOx(GT)']",,"['AH', 'RH', 'T']",[],[],uci_air_quality_1H,1.5607085546,0.0,3221.140269844,80,62f958117014ee08,False,0.8.0,1.5607085546,1.2991890741,0.4116057758,0.5268864008,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/cumulative,7.711564519399999,0.0,809.132303741,240,c8dff53b6fcb4695,False,0.8.0,7.711564519399999,8.8341213542,0.0214682836,0.0188346391,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1D/new,2.7990662657,0.0,934.646237295,240,c8dff53b6fcb4695,False,0.8.0,2.7990662657,3.1171908764,0.4527084745,0.6131520742000001,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['cumulative_admissions', 'cumulative_cases', 'cumulative_deaths']",,[],"['cumulative_vaccinated_1', 'cumulative_vaccinated_2', 'cumulative_vaccinated_3', 'hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/cumulative,2.2375975892,0.0,92.327857766,48,a1bd24bd7d949574,False,0.8.0,2.2375975892,2.5352192406,0.0229528995,0.0198408228,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_nation_1W,8,4,-32,8,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['new_admissions', 'new_cases', 'new_deaths']",,[],"['hospital_cases', 'icu_ventilator_occupancy', 'new_vaccinated_1', 'new_vaccinated_2', 'new_vaccinated_3']",[],uk_covid_nation_1W/new,5.7411671487,0.0,91.32929886,48,a1bd24bd7d949574,False,0.8.0,5.7411671487,6.2522286977,0.4829665292,0.4963902021,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,new_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1D/new,5.5814923391,0.0,3134.217262569,2140,46f9bb53c6d05e0a,False,0.8.0,5.5814923391,6.2343287073,0.5653107208,0.5001530271,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,uk_covid_utla_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,cumulative_cases,,[],[],[],uk_covid_utla_1W/cumulative,14.3311158968,0.0,164.919115183,1070,c4fdce102c5b6f47,False,0.8.0,14.3311158968,15.850327087,0.1562369964,0.1383354468,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1M,12,10,-120,12,1,,12,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1M,1.4865371375,0.0,695.746512329,310,c882f886bec32c78,False,0.8.0,1.4865371375,1.7231243082,0.0240303916,0.0214323928,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Q,8,10,-80,8,1,,4,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Q,1.9078568226,0.0,300.269025843,310,9a76cd11c4c2c07e,False,0.8.0,1.9078568226,2.2422554478,0.0338127631,0.0294263844,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,us_consumption_1Y,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],us_consumption_1Y,3.7862953533,0.0,263.167186366,310,d29d0d81db6393b4,False,0.8.0,3.7862953533,4.4535793013,0.0638795748,0.0515667331,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,walmart,39,1,-39,39,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,"['CPI', 'Fuel_Price', 'IsHoliday', 'MarkDown1', 'MarkDown2', 'MarkDown3', 'MarkDown4', 'MarkDown5', 'Temperature', 'Unemployment']",[],"['Dept', 'Size', 'Store', 'Type']",walmart,1.2166093322,0.0,154.691769802,2936,84f95b6543281d0d,False,0.8.0,1.2166093322,1.3563793817,0.1773253329,0.1643529046,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_co2_emissions,5,9,-45,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_co2_emissions,2.687935791,0.0,272.608265474,1719,c78d3682201594d9,False,0.8.0,2.687935791,3.1762492237,0.0811728698,0.0701480073,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_life_expectancy,5,10,-50,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_life_expectancy,1.3050101558,0.0,317.814657674,2370,f9ce571f4bf31401,False,0.8.0,1.3050101558,1.5403574298,0.0126706901,0.0108664528,,, +Stat. Ensemble,autogluon/fev_datasets,world_tourism,5,2,-10,5,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],world_tourism,2.5524025228,0.0,59.049261143,356,dcd8469c3acc4caa,False,0.8.0,2.5524025228,3.0020743908,0.0681911992,0.0552036882,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_15T,96,20,-1920,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_15T,0.597092731,0.0,23.224015235,280,9f6541408f56392f,False,0.7.0,0.597092731,0.7138930444,0.1157490913,0.0969683943,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1D,28,20,-560,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1D,1.2461046836,0.0,22.790157054,280,ff06ef09d043bd73,False,0.7.0,1.2461046836,1.4174248495,0.3646975075,0.3129149392,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1H,168,20,-3360,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1H,0.9634114324,0.0,23.063304525,280,1051fcbf7ab489b5,False,0.7.0,0.9634114324,1.1439289261,0.2547681354,0.2146782131,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,ETT_1W,13,5,-65,13,1,,1,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,"['HUFL', 'HULL', 'LUFL', 'LULL', 'MUFL', 'MULL', 'OT']",,[],[],[],ETT_1W,2.4688224531,0.0,6.305912987,70,f7babcd132f54bf3,False,0.7.0,2.4688224531,2.7153947044,0.5208597481,0.4643316617,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1D,0.8625023325000001,0.0,250.299855604,3230,02d7b9f04d1c3187,False,0.7.0,0.8625023325000001,0.9847669395,0.0372882528,0.0326217509,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_1H,0.7695770803,0.0,249.409578512,3230,08811ee17f93df42,False,0.7.0,0.7695770803,0.9012445092,0.077676107,0.0664487294,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,288,10,-2880,288,1,,288,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],LOOP_SEATTLE_5T,0.6606205367,0.0,252.777724307,3230,c2739a4b195beef3,False,0.7.0,0.6606205367,0.7671902281,0.0829992138,0.0714930823,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1D,28,10,-280,28,1,,7,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1D,0.7844887054,0.0,24.85723141,300,12417cabd3e820d7,False,0.7.0,0.7844887054,0.8999893558000001,0.0968305223,0.0844361527,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,M_DENSE_1H,168,10,-1680,168,1,,24,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 'epsilon': 1.0}, {'name': 'WQL', 'epsilon': 1.0}]","[0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9]",id,timestamp,target,,[],[],[],M_DENSE_1H,0.6604636921,0.0,23.947521482,300,e973593b94c21fa6,False,0.7.0,0.6604636921,0.775167995,0.1584326059,0.1339606641,,, +Sundial-Base,autogluon/fev_datasets,SZ_TAXI_15T,96,10,-960,96,1,,96,SQL,"['MASE', {'name': 'WAPE', 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